1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: And the Eastern Mediterranean. Ethan Browner, iconic at the New 7 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: York Times and our Israeli Bureau chief and studio with 8 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: US today. Admiral Bullen, thirteenth Joint chiefs of Staff, was 9 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: piercing yesterday with us. He was just brutal about moving 10 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: away from the Pentagon Dance and saying America is prepared 11 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:55,279 Speaker 2: in your Tel Aviv and in the greater levant up 12 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 2: to Airdawan and Donda Lcci. Is there a perception of 13 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: an America military that is failed or diminished. 14 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 3: It's a great question. Tom. 15 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 4: It's nice to see both you and Paul in person. 16 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 3: I would say there is. 17 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 5: There is definitely a sense that. 18 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 3: Also that they feel that they can't rely on the 19 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 3: United States. 20 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 5: Now, you know, there's plenty to talk about about who 21 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 5: can rely on whom and who we'd like to rely on. 22 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 5: But the sense in the region is that a Israel 23 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 5: has become unchained and out of control, and that the 24 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 5: US is behind it and not doing its job to 25 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 5: force it to stop attacking and to force a greater 26 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 5: sense of peace regionally. 27 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 3: That is, certainly the people of. 28 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: Israel want to be forced. I think of Robert Caplan's work, 29 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 2: my Book of the Year a couple of years ago, 30 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 2: the Loom of time from Morocco over to Persia. Does 31 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: Israel want to be forced south the America? 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 5: So my first answer had to do with, actually, everyone 33 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 5: except Israel, and now for we're talk talking about Israel, 34 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 5: it's split. The government and those who support it absolutely 35 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 5: do not want to be forced. And those who oppose 36 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,959 Speaker 5: the government's policies and who'd like it to stop its 37 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 5: attack in Gaza and to reach out to the Saudis 38 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 5: and so on, are praying that this government in the 39 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 5: United States will force its hand. 40 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 6: Yes, it seems like not just in the Middle East, 41 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 6: in other parts of the world. President Trump is at 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 6: a point now where he's kind of washing his hands 43 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 6: and saying, you guys, maybe Europe, for Ukraine, maybe just 44 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 6: the reason you guys take care of it. 45 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 3: We're kind of done here. 46 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 6: Is that a feeling that's in the Middle East as well. 47 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that it does seem that way. 48 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 5: It feels from that President Trump is someone who likes 49 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,119 Speaker 5: to make big pronouncements and expect that the words will 50 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 5: create reality, and when they don't, he acts as if 51 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 5: they do. 52 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 3: We'll have to see what's going on right now. 53 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 5: I mean, we're here him saying, well, we're about to 54 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 5: end this war in Gaza any minute. We've got all 55 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 5: kinds of plans for peace, and the hostages must come 56 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 5: home or they'll be hell to pay. 57 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 3: And nothing's changed so far. 58 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 6: I mean, is there a Hammas with which Israel could 59 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 6: really negotiate something meaningful? Is there Hamas left in terms 60 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 6: of real leadership? 61 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 5: So there is a Hammas leadership, But that's not the 62 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 5: same thing as saying that it's an organization that you 63 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 5: could negotiate with on terms that mean anything to Israel. 64 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 5: The two sides of irreconcilable views of one another. The 65 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 5: Hamas argument is will give you back your hostages if 66 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 5: you get out of Gaza entirely and leave us in power, 67 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 5: and Israel is saying, the only thing that matters to 68 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 5: us is to get you out of power, so nothing 69 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 5: will be worth the price of leaving you in power 70 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 5: so that those hostages who remain are on. 71 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 4: The table to some extent. 72 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 3: And I think. 73 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 5: That this government is something conclusion, that is Honyau government 74 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 5: that it can only get out. 75 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 3: So many of these hostages and now it needs to 76 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: go to war. 77 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 2: Ethan Bronner with this driving our Levon coverage of course 78 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 2: out of Israel. He's Israel bureau chief for Bloomberg. We 79 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 2: welcome all of you across the nation. I'm embarrassed to 80 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 2: say I literally got a wave off the Jacob Frenkel 81 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 2: at Jackson Hall, the former governor at the Bank of Israel. 82 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 2: He's a giant in American economics, the stewardship for JP 83 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 2: Morgan International, for mister Diamond. So right now, Jacob Frenkel, 84 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 2: who is my Israeli Loadstone, you and him are having 85 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 2: a beverage of your choice at the Colony Hotel in 86 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 2: the courtyard. This goes back to like before Churchill. It's 87 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 2: like wicked famous. It's like I've never done this. I 88 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: want to be Keithan Bronner, Jacob Frenkel in the courtyard. 89 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 2: Is this Israel? The Israel? The former governor of the 90 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 2: Bank Israel knows does Jacob Frenkel understand the Yahoo Experiment. 91 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 4: I mean, it is a very different country. 92 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 5: Israel has grown much more religious, much more nationalistic, much 93 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 5: less generous in its attitude toward its neighbors. And of 94 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 5: course that's partly to do with the exceptional trauma that 95 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 5: October seventh and twenty three caused the Israeli so Frankel, 96 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 5: who I've also known but I can't I don't want 97 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 5: to speak in his name, understands that trauma. But he 98 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 5: also believes it's time to do something about it in 99 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 5: a way that will bring the region behind Israel. And 100 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 5: this government believes that the only way forward is to 101 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 5: show military strength and others will eventually come around. 102 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 2: My hallmark with Israeli diplomacy is a million years ago. 103 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 2: Lisa I threw a snowball at Golden my ear's car 104 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 2: when I was like eight years old or something. She 105 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: was a junior officer of the Israeli Experiment then, and 106 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: you know, it was a privilege to grow up in Rochester, 107 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 2: New York with a huge Jewish contingent. Great from where 108 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 2: you are, how does Israel perceive the legislative branch of 109 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 2: the United States of America? Is it traditional Senate House 110 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: politics in Washington with Israel or is it shattered? 111 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 3: It's shattering, and there is a concern, especially. 112 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 5: The Democratic side, that it has lost its support for Israel. 113 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 5: It has only the republic ends and the Democrats that 114 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 5: I forget which what number, but a surprising number of 115 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:29,280 Speaker 5: them voted to pose an impose an arms embargo for 116 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 5: offensive arms toward Gaza, and that's they're quite worried about that. 117 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 2: I got to get this question in Paul's two important 118 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: side from Long Island emails in would President Harris do 119 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 2: anything different? 120 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: Oh? 121 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 5: I think she would have done many things differently. I 122 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 5: don't think she would have unleashed Israel. Now, I think 123 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 5: the more interesting question is what Israel have done what 124 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 5: it wanted to do anyway, And I think it's a 125 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 5: decent possibility that it would have been nearly as militarily 126 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 5: aggressive as it has been because it came to the 127 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 5: conclusion that it had no choice. 128 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 4: Whether or not you agree with that, but. 129 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 3: I'm certain that president a President Kamala Harris would have 130 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 3: acted very differently towards this government. 131 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 6: Yes, how secure is mister Netanyahu in his position here today? 132 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 6: It seems like the tide continues to turn against Israel broadly. 133 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 6: I mean, I was just traveling on holiday through Italy 134 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 6: and I saw so many Palestinian flags hanging from windows 135 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 6: across the country. I didn't expect that. How secure is 136 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 6: he in his position? 137 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 5: I mean, the two aren't necessarily contradictory, although eventually they 138 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 5: could become. The world has decided that Israel is out 139 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 5: of control, and that's it needs to be sanctioned and 140 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 5: it needs to accept a Palestinian state. The Prime Minister 141 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 5: in Israel has a majority of the population on his 142 00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 5: side opposed to a Palestinian state, and generally in what 143 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 5: he's doing in terms of Hamas. It's close. But I 144 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 5: would say he's in no way in danger for the 145 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 5: next year when there has to be an election, and 146 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 5: he could win again in the next election. 147 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,679 Speaker 2: So democracy is still in place and he could win again. 148 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 3: Just that's correct, That's correct. 149 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 5: I mean a lot of people are fed up with him, 150 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 5: but they also have this sense that they need someone 151 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 5: like him, that they who is and he, after all, 152 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,559 Speaker 5: had an enormous number of victories last year militarily against 153 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 5: Iran and against his belog and this week. 154 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 2: Of Jewish celebration in America, the simplistic analysis we have. 155 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 2: And I'm as guilty as this as anyone is Reform 156 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 2: conservative Orthodox. I know it's way more sophisticated ethan Browner. 157 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 2: In your Israel, who do you study within the religion 158 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 2: of Israel? Is the tip point to netnya democracy? 159 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 7: The tip point meaning with that will cause to end. 160 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 7: I'll let it go there, cause it to end, or 161 00:08:59,200 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 7: cause it. 162 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 4: To I see. 163 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 3: I mean the Orthodoxy is on the rise in Israel. 164 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 5: The number of kids in first grade in Israel in 165 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 5: religious schools now outnumber those in secular for the first 166 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 5: time ever in the seventy seven years of the country's history. 167 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 3: So they have six or seven children. 168 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 5: Each, the ultra Orthodox and then the national Religious have four, 169 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 5: and they are on the way to essentially running the 170 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 5: country in the next twenty years. 171 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 2: Would it Zak have been recognize this modern Israel? 172 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 3: He would, he would weep. 173 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 6: So I probably speak for most Americans my age, like 174 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 6: we've been living this our whole life. 175 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 3: We've been observing it a whole. 176 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 6: Life, and I think I speak for a lot of people. 177 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 6: I have no idea how a solution even comes about. 178 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 4: I share your sense of wonder. 179 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 3: I mean, it's almost. 180 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 6: Like we there's nothing we can do. 181 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 3: Really, it's true. 182 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 5: I mean part of it is as Americans, we have 183 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 5: this roller verse leaves notion that you know, a solution 184 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 5: is there and we're going to find. 185 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 3: It and we're going to put it into place. 186 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 5: And actually, bad stuff and unpleasant stuff and complicated stuff 187 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 5: goes on for generations. And I think that's what we're facing. 188 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 5: And I also think that we in our age group 189 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 5: grew up at a time of a sense of international 190 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 5: order which started to fall apart in the last twenty years, 191 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 5: and the world has returned to its normal. 192 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 3: Arc of history, which is chaos. 193 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 2: One question, then, who in the continent of Europe when 194 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 2: the leaders speak, does Ethan Browner listened to went Crow 195 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 2: with all the Dreyfusts and all the heritage of the 196 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 2: French in Syria and Arabia? Is it a different country? 197 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 2: Who are you studying right now? 198 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, in Europe? 199 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 2: In Europe? 200 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 5: Yes, I mean I think that Europe is also at 201 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 5: wits end about what to do about itself. I mean, 202 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 5: none of these countries is well off economically, and I 203 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 5: think that Macron is trying through this to return France 204 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 5: to an important position diplomatically and globally. 205 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 4: And I don't think it's going to work. 206 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 2: This has been a treat. Come more off, try ethan 207 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 2: broader with this. Usually we speak from his thr illness 208 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 2: that rushed five or six minutes. This has been a 209 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 2: wonderful treat. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 210 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 2: up after this. 211 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 212 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 213 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 214 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 215 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 2: We have win thin with us today. Chief conn is 216 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 2: a bank of NASA. He didn't know this was happening. 217 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: But with his Columbia cred and all his other academics, 218 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 2: I can't think of anyone. T Taylor Rule John Taylor 219 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 2: Stanford t a wild on the Bloomberg I've got a 220 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 2: complete layout of the tailor rule plus the adjustment for 221 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 2: policy inertia. That's like the Toronto Blue Jays have policy 222 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 2: inertia right now. I got seven plug ins on the 223 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: tailor rule. I got another plug getting on the policy inertia. 224 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 2: How squishy is a tailor rule that Stephen Myron's talking about. 225 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, first of all, thanks, thanks so much for 226 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 8: having me. It's always a pleasure. I think I got 227 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 8: a somewhat backhand compliment. 228 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 2: I am. 229 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 8: I haven't accused of being a jargon free nerd in 230 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 8: the past. I'm very proud of that, and. 231 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 2: We're going to try to do that. I mean, there's 232 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 2: a lot of mathematics going on here, but a plug 233 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 2: in is a variable equation where there's a lot of mystery. 234 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 8: So so I think Paul Samerson had one of the 235 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 8: best posts and economics. 236 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 2: It's it's not exact science. 237 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 8: There's more art to it than one would one expect 238 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 8: than one would expect. 239 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 2: Discovernor Myron know that. I think every economist knows that. 240 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 8: Any economics who does not meant that is simply lying 241 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 8: because we know that things are uncertain. You know, neoclassical 242 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:49,679 Speaker 8: economists it assumed perfect rationally rational markets. 243 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 2: We know that's not true. 244 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 8: We know behavior economics, irrational markets, those are all really 245 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 8: what's what's driving to me a modern economic thought of 246 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:01,719 Speaker 8: this century. And so there's so much art into it, 247 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 8: which is you know to me, you know you want 248 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 8: to bet the house on something that's you know, such 249 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 8: a so subjective. 250 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: Within thin with this in ten minutes Myrone with John Ferrell, 251 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 2: looking forward to that conversation. Okay, I'm going to go 252 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 2: to the output gap. I resurrected out of conservative Richmond 253 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: Hrzel paper from years ago, vamping Anthony or Finet's who 254 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 2: was Wonderful, and it basically said, would everybody get a 255 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 2: dose of humility? Do you detect here a certitude on 256 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 2: the part of Trump economics? It's way out of. 257 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 8: Line, yes, And I think we've seen that time and 258 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,599 Speaker 8: time again. And he's certain that tariffs are great for 259 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 8: the nation. He's certain that mainful conscious solve everything. So 260 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 8: you know, to me, as the biggest thing about being 261 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 8: in a commoss is really to be humble and realize 262 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 8: that the world is very complicated. You know, many of 263 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 8: these observations that Princess Myron and I was making, it's 264 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 8: in to me a very partial like living world. Say okay, 265 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 8: we're nikas policy, it's gonna fix this. What I believe 266 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 8: that they don't take in care into a count of 267 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,079 Speaker 8: was the really general equilibrium portion of it, What other 268 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 8: secondary and tertiary impact of these policies and within the 269 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 8: general equilibrium framework. And that is what I think is 270 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 8: missing in a lot of the policy makers in this administration. 271 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 2: Again, it's very humbling. 272 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 6: So what is your view of this US economy here? 273 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 6: I mean a lot of folks say, hey, we're still 274 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 6: in good shape, don't worry about it. Other people say, boy, 275 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 6: if you look underneath, whether it's a labor economy, see 276 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 6: some areas of weakness. 277 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 2: What's your view? 278 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 8: Yeah, So, Paul, that's there literally a million dollar question 279 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 8: right now is how what is what's really going on 280 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 8: with US economy? Because out of that you can draw, well, 281 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 8: what's the FED going to do? So facing we started 282 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 8: this year and very strong. We came in almost three 283 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 8: percent last year, mentum strong. All of a sudden we 284 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 8: got hit with uh deflationary sort of impulses. I remember 285 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 8: this is the difference between Trump one oh and chuoh. Back 286 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 8: in Trump one he put in the inflationary sort of 287 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 8: steamless first, tax cuts, the regulation and immigration next, and 288 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 8: we got hit with those are the sort of deflationary 289 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 8: stuff right after bad. So we are losing momentum. There's 290 00:14:57,920 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 8: no doubt the job market, the lot of labor market 291 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 8: is cra I think it's it's it's I think it's 292 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 8: going to hit us more than we've seen in the 293 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 8: next few months. You know, we've had delay, you know 294 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 8: because of the sort of all the delays the tariffs, 295 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 8: then the companies didn't pass on the tariffs where the 296 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 8: companies didn't make adjustments, and now we're going to see 297 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 8: that I think coming in forced the next couple of months. 298 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 2: Commercial free for Global Wall Street, win Thin, the Bank 299 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 2: of Nanessa into Governor Myron Jonathan Farrell speaking of Stephen 300 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 2: Myron here in about eight minutes Paul Sweeney. 301 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 6: So when terrorists that was for the first six months 302 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 6: of the year. That's all we talked about. That's Taylor rule. 303 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 3: That is not stay a little. It's kind of going 304 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 3: to the back burner. 305 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 2: Here. 306 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 6: We've got equity markets setting new all time highs every day. Yes, 307 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 6: the dollar's still low, it has not recovered. But where 308 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 6: where are we terriffs? Is it in fact a drag 309 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 6: on this economy? Is it in fact inflationary? 310 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 2: We Yeah, So I mentioned this before that the delay 311 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 2: is what I think it's key. 312 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 8: Remember, I think we saw some some of the earnings reports, 313 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 8: a lot of the companies were eating the terrifs because say, 314 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 8: we don't where they end up going. We got certainty 315 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 8: in August, and I think all of a sudden, you're 316 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 8: getting this pass to And this is what Chair Powell 317 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 8: and some of the other sort of hawks are afraid 318 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 8: those is that, Okay, we've got some tariff certainty. Now 319 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 8: we're going to start seeing a lot more pass to. 320 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 8: I mean, listen, that's that's what companies do. They were 321 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 8: sort of on pause while the uncertain was going on. 322 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 8: So we should see the risk. We see high inflation 323 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 8: that's going to hit real incomes. We're seeing labor market crack. 324 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 8: So again I think, to me, the downs I agree 325 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 8: with with Chair Powell at the downside we start, I think, 326 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 8: are sort of the. 327 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 2: Predominant right now, and that is focusing on within Thinn 328 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 2: with this this morning. Was that great yesterday talking to 329 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 2: one of the founders of Oracle Sudrey. Yeah, Larry Ellison, Yep, yep, yep. 330 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 2: That was really really good, good conversation at the Plaza 331 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 2: Hotel Bloomberg surveying us today and we thank them for 332 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: their support for a bunch of by Oracle attention growing businesses. 333 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 2: Oracle is offering to cut your current cloud bill in 334 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 2: half if you moved to Oracle Cloud infrastructure for new 335 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 2: US customers with minimum financial commitments. See if your company qualifies. 336 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 2: Do that at Oracle dot com slash Bloomberg, Oracle dot 337 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 2: com slash Bloomberg. Okay, I'm gonna get mathy. The output 338 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 2: gap was within the Taylor rule. Herzel was mental about 339 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 2: it twenty five years ago. I'm mental about it today. 340 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 2: The output gap is the actual GDP, and then you 341 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 2: take away some win thing calculation, a potential GDP which 342 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 2: is made up with crystals and pyramids, an incense. Okay, great, 343 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 2: somebody on the show yesterday said we're popping five or 344 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 2: six percent nomenal GDP. We're doing two and a half 345 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: three percent whatever GDP. Potential GDP is some grim number 346 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,479 Speaker 2: that you guys come up with. The output gap is 347 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 2: nowhere near a Myron rate regime, is. 348 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 8: It, No, I would say unquickly, we are not. Again, 349 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 8: we were coming off several years of two three percent growth. 350 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 2: I mean, Richard Claren is aged over this. I'm kidding. 351 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 3: So look again, I'll circle back. 352 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 8: You know, I think the really one of the issues 353 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 8: I have with with sort of academic you know, constructs. 354 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 8: The economist, it's whatever assumption you make. You can make 355 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 8: whatever sumption you want to get the results you want. 356 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 8: I think that was to me the sort of disheartening 357 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 8: thing I found out in writing my thesis and talking 358 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 8: to my colleagues is that. 359 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 2: You build a model, and you make you building. 360 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 8: Allso these sorts of assumptions, and if you don't get 361 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 8: the results you want, then well you kind of tweak 362 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 8: some assumptions you kind of get what you want. And 363 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:27,239 Speaker 8: it sounds very cynical, but that's sort of I think 364 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:28,959 Speaker 8: the way the world works, and that works with policy 365 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 8: makers too. 366 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 2: They're they're seeing what they want to see, you know. 367 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 8: To me, look the output gap, the tailor rule, the 368 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 8: naturate of unemployment. These are all sorts of constructs, academic 369 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 8: constructs that we posso makers want to sort of use 370 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 8: as guideposts. But there's no no sure answer. To me, 371 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 8: there's sort of clues to what's going on in the cold, 372 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 8: but there's no one thing you can look at and say, hey, 373 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 8: this is what we need to do. So, you know, 374 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 8: Governor Myron is to me speaking to an audience one 375 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 8: who wants lower rates. 376 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 2: Chair Powell is tracket. Nobody agrees with him, is that 377 00:18:58,560 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 2: what you're saying? 378 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 8: Well, I think that many people within his administration agree 379 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 8: with him, Paula. 380 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 2: I just took the tailor rule, yep, and I just 381 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 2: plugged in as a complete hack and amateur two or 382 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 2: three jakes. I'm not even gonna bore our audience, so 383 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 2: people drive off the road in the Garden State Parkway. 384 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 2: And I modeled a tailor rule that is Steve myron 385 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 2: ish okay by making assumptions forward, which I'm sorry. It's 386 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 2: like Stevie. It's like a Stevie Nick song. They just 387 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: they just remastered Buckingham Nix. It's like Crystal, you know, 388 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 2: Crystal Pyramids and all that they were singing about thirty 389 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 2: years ago. Go So what's the magic number? Tom? 390 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 8: I'm curious, what's the magic When you get out of that, 391 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 8: I came up. 392 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 2: I lowered the neutral real rate. Listen to him, what 393 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 2: is this to do? It was a pop quiz with 394 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 2: doctor Thin. I lowered the neutral rate. I lowered the 395 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 2: inflation target, and critically, I know I lowered Neyhrew Lisa 396 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 2: Nehru's not the jacket you're buying for your daughter for 397 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 2: the fall prem I lowered Neyrow. Okay, I came up 398 00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 2: with a I don't know, doctor thinn I came up 399 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 2: the number that's like four rate cuts. 400 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 3: There you go. 401 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 6: You know, I like it. 402 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 2: It's all smoking mirror. Yeah, you know. 403 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 8: But again you'd be plugging really the most, you know, 404 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 8: sort of the numbers that you wanted to see to 405 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 8: get the lower rate. 406 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 2: You make up your numbers. This is great. John Taylor, 407 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 2: who was one of my biggest supporters, Professor Taylor Stanford, 408 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 2: would say exactly what doctor finn Is would say, Paul, 409 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 2: A little humilities in order. Paul saved the interview. 410 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 8: Please listen, if you're an economist on Wall Street, and 411 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 8: if you don't have humility, do something wrong, because you know, 412 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 8: I'm wrong almost as many times as I'm right. It's 413 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 8: a humble profession. I mean, so many things that can 414 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 8: go wrong. 415 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 2: Here's humility. John Taylor dresses up as a raisin for 416 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 2: freshman economics at Stanford. He goes the end of the 417 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 2: lecture hall dressed up, you know, to put some humility 418 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 2: into it. 419 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 3: That'll work, And that's what you do that'll work. 420 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 6: Hey, here's something we don't talk about, and I don't 421 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 6: think of like twenty or thirty years, are we back 422 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 6: in the business of billiant ladin America? 423 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 3: What's going on with the ARGD I know, I'm dying 424 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 3: to ask somebody that's just stuff for a living. It's 425 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 3: like my youth. 426 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 2: It's amazing. 427 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,239 Speaker 8: So when I first started my career and we had 428 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 8: the tequila crisis in Mexico and it was, boy, it 429 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 8: was real welcome to you know, welcome to the machine. 430 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 2: It was. 431 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 8: It was really an eye open experience. And I feel 432 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 8: since then, we've had so many crisis by the Asian crisis, 433 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 8: you know, Argentina default. 434 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:23,400 Speaker 2: Several times already. 435 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 8: So I look, to me, this is this is politics 436 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 8: sort of overwhelming economics, because let's face it, Argentina isn't 437 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 8: always been a basket case. 438 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 4: You know. 439 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 8: They they just got an IMF dealers in April, just 440 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 8: the third im I deal since twenty eighteen to twenty 441 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 8: third overall, and six months later the running out of 442 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 8: cash and coming to the US for help. 443 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: So to me, that's a pretty shaky bet. What I 444 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 2: think is. 445 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 8: Going on is, you know, President trumpet is administration and 446 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 8: views Argentina's an ally They're not structurally important. Look back 447 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 8: in nineteen ninety three Mexico US very economic ties, financial 448 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 8: ties and commercial bank loans, et cetera. Sure you can 449 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 8: make a big reason for the US to get involved. 450 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 8: Argentina is really stuff, you know, sort of flyespack from 451 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,439 Speaker 8: the US radar. They've been a sort of prior for years. 452 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 8: We're only kind of going back into it and all 453 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 8: of a sudden blowing up again. So it's another humbling. 454 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 8: We remind you that to those of em that you 455 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 8: know that history was it often rhymes right, that never 456 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 8: appears often rhymes winstin. 457 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg 458 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this. 459 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 460 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 461 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 462 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 463 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty In. 464 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 2: The Eastern Mediterranean, Ethan Browner, iconic at the New York 465 00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 2: Times and our Israeli Bureau Chief and Studio where this today, 466 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 2: Admiral Bullen, thirteenth Joint chiefs of Staff was piercing yesterday 467 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 2: with us. He was just brutal about moving away from 468 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 2: the Pentagon dance and saying America is prepared in your 469 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 2: Tel Aviv and in the greater levant up to Airdawan 470 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 2: and down to LCCI. Is there a perception of an 471 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 2: American military that has failed or diminished. 472 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 3: It's a great question. 473 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 4: Tom, It's nice to see both you and Paul in person. 474 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 3: I would say there is. 475 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:41,199 Speaker 5: There is definitely a sense also that they feel that 476 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 5: they can. 477 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 4: Rely on the United States. 478 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 5: Now, you know, there's plenty to talk about about who 479 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 5: can rely on whom and. 480 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 3: Who we'd like to rely on. 481 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,959 Speaker 5: But the sense in the region is that a Israel 482 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 5: has become unchained and out of control, and that the 483 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 5: US is behind it and not doing its job to 484 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 5: force it to stop attacking and to force a greater 485 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 5: sense of peace regionally. 486 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 3: That is, certainly the. 487 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 2: People of Israel want to be forced. I think of 488 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan's work, my Book of the Year a couple 489 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 2: of years ago, the Loom of Time from Morocco over 490 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 2: to Persia. Does Israel want to be forced South America? 491 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 5: So my first answer had to do with, actually everyone 492 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 5: except Israel, and now if we're talking about Israel. It's 493 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 5: split the government and those who support it absolutely do 494 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 5: not want to be forced. And those who oppose the 495 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 5: government's policies and who'd like it to stop its attack 496 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 5: in Gaza and to reach out to the Saudis and 497 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 5: so on, are praying that this government in the United 498 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 5: States will force its hand. 499 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 6: Yes, it seems like not just in the Middle East, 500 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 6: but other parts of the world. President Trump is at 501 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 6: a point now where he's kind of washing his hands 502 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 6: and saying, you guys, maybe Europe, for Ukraine, maybe just 503 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 6: the reason you guys take care of it. 504 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 3: We're kind of done here. 505 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 6: Is that a feeling that's in the Middle East as well? 506 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that it does seem that way. 507 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 5: It feels from that President Trump is someone who likes 508 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 5: to make big pronouncements and expect that the words will 509 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 5: create reality, and when they don't, he acts as if 510 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 5: they do. We'll have to see what's going on right now. 511 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 5: I mean, we're hear him saying, well, We're about to 512 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 5: end this war in Gaza any minute. We've got all 513 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 5: kinds of plans for peace, and the hostages must come home, 514 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,680 Speaker 5: where they'll be hell to pay and nothing's changed so far. 515 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 6: I mean, is there a Hammas with which Israel could 516 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,360 Speaker 6: really negotiate something meaningful? Is there Hamas left in terms 517 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 6: of real leadership? 518 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,199 Speaker 5: So there is a Hamas leadership, But that's not the 519 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 5: same thing as saying that it's an organization that you 520 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 5: could negotiate with on terms that mean anything to Israel. 521 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,679 Speaker 5: The two sides have irreconcilable views of one another. The 522 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 5: Hamas argument is will give you back your hostages if 523 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,959 Speaker 5: you get out of Gaza entirely and leave us in power, 524 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 5: And Israel is saying the only thing that matters to 525 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 5: us is to get you out of power, so nothing 526 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,919 Speaker 5: will be worth the price of leaving you in power, 527 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,120 Speaker 5: so that those hostages who will remain are. 528 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 3: On the table to some extent. 529 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 5: And I think that this government is something conclusion that 530 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 5: is Honyau government that it can only get out. 531 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 3: So many of these hostages and now it needs to 532 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 3: go to war. 533 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 2: Ethan Brodner with us driving our Levon coverage, of course 534 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 2: out of Israel. He's Israel bureau chief for Bloomberg. We 535 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 2: welcome all of you across the nation. I'm embarrassed to 536 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 2: say I literally got a wave off Jacob Frenkel at 537 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 2: Jackson Hall, the former governor at the Bank of Israel. 538 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 2: He's a giant in American economics, the stewardship for JP 539 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 2: Morgan International, for mister Diamond. So right now, Jacob Frenkel, 540 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 2: who's my Israeli load stone? You and him are having 541 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 2: a beverage of your choice at the Colony hotel in 542 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,920 Speaker 2: the courtyard. This goes back to like before Churchill, It's 543 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 2: like wicked famous. It's like I've never done this. I 544 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 2: want to be useful to runner Jacob Frankel in the courtyard. 545 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 2: Is this Israel? The Israel, the former governor of the 546 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 2: Bank Israel knows. Does Jacob Frankel understand the Yahoo experiment? 547 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 4: No, I mean it is a very different country. 548 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 5: Israel has grown much more religious, much more nationalistic, much 549 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 5: less generous in its attitude toward its neighbors. 550 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 3: And of course that's partly to do with the exceptional. 551 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 5: Trauma that October seventh and twenty three caused the Israeli 552 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 5: So Frankel, who I've also known but I can't I 553 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,360 Speaker 5: don't want to speak in his name, understands that trauma. 554 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 5: But he also believes it's time to do something about 555 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 5: it in a way that will bring the region behind Israel. 556 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,719 Speaker 5: And this government believes that the only way forward is 557 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 5: to show military strength and others will eventually come. 558 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:04,360 Speaker 2: My hallmark with Israeli diplomacy is a million years ago 559 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 2: Lisa I threw a snowball at Golden Myyar's car when 560 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,919 Speaker 2: I was like eight years old or something. She was 561 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:15,239 Speaker 2: a junior officer of the Israeli Experiment then, and you know, 562 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 2: it was a privilege to grow up in a roch 563 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 2: to New York with a huge Jewish contingent. Great from 564 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 2: where you are, how does Israel perceive the legislative branch 565 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 2: of the United States of America? Is it traditional Senate 566 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 2: House politics in Washington with Israel? Or is it shattered? 567 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 5: It's shattering, and there is a concern, especially the Democratic side, 568 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 5: that it has lost its support for Israel. It has 569 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 5: only the republic ends of the Democrats that I forget 570 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 5: which what number, but a surprising number of them voted 571 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 5: to pose an impose an arms embargo for offensive arms 572 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 5: toward Gaza. 573 00:28:58,120 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 3: And that's they're quite worried about that. 574 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 2: Going to get this question in Paul's two important sigh 575 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 2: from long is Lett emails in would President Harris do 576 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 2: anything different? 577 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 5: Oh, I think she would have done many things differently. 578 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 5: I don't think she would have unleashed Israel. 579 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 4: Now. 580 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 5: I think the more interesting question is would Israel have 581 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 5: done what it wanted to do anyway? And I think 582 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 5: it's a decent possibility that it would have been nearly 583 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 5: as militarily aggressive as it has been because it came 584 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 5: to the conclusion that it had no choice. 585 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 4: Whether or not you agree with that. 586 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 3: But I'm certain that President President Kamala. 587 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 5: Harris would have acted very differently towards this government. 588 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 6: Yes, how secure is mister Nettan Yahou in his position here? 589 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 3: Today? 590 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 6: It seems like the tide continues to turn against Israel broadly. 591 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 6: I mean, I was just traveling on holiday through Italy 592 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 6: and I saw so many Palestinian flags hanging from windows 593 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 6: across the country. I didn't expect that. How secure is 594 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 6: he in his position? 595 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 5: I mean, the two aren't necessarily contradictory, although eventually they 596 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:02,479 Speaker 5: could become. 597 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 3: The world has decided that Israel is out of. 598 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 5: Control and that it needs to be sanctioned and it 599 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 5: needs to accept a Palestinian state. The Prime Minister in 600 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 5: Israel has a majority of the population on his side 601 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 5: opposed to a Palestinian state, and generally in what he's 602 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 5: doing in terms of Hamas. 603 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 3: It's close. 604 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 5: But I would say he's in no way in danger 605 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 5: for the next year when there has to be an election, 606 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 5: and he could win again in. 607 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 4: The next election. 608 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 2: So democracy is still in place and he could win again. 609 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 4: Just that's correct, That's correct. 610 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 5: I mean a lot of people are fed up with him, 611 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 5: but they also have this sense that they need someone 612 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 5: like him, that they who is and he, after all, 613 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 5: had an enormous number of victories last year militarily against Iranan, 614 00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 5: against his. 615 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 2: Belog in this week of Jewish celebration in America, the 616 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 2: simplistic analysis we have and I'm as guilty of this 617 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 2: as anyone is reform conservative Orthodox. I know it's way 618 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 2: more sophisticated ethan Browner in your Israel. Who do you 619 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 2: study within the religion of Israel? Is the tip point 620 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 2: to netnya democracy. 621 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 7: The tip point meaning with that will cause to end. 622 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 7: I'll let it go there, cause it to end, or 623 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:25,880 Speaker 7: cause it to sustain. 624 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 3: I see, I mean the Orthodoxy is on the rise 625 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 3: in Israel. 626 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 5: The number of kids in first grade in Israel, in 627 00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 5: religious schools now outnumber those in secular for the first 628 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 5: time ever in the seventy seven years of the country's history. 629 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 3: So they have six or seven children. 630 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 5: Each, the ultra Orthodox and then the National Religious have four, 631 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 5: and they are on the way to essentially. 632 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 4: Running the country in the next one year. 633 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 2: Would it Zak have been recognize this modern Israel? 634 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 3: He would, he would weep. 635 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 6: So I probably speak for most Americans my age, like 636 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 6: we've been living this our whole life. We've been observing 637 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 6: it a whole life, and I think I speak for 638 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 6: a lot of people. I have no idea how a 639 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 6: solution even comes about there. 640 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 4: I share your sense of wonder. I mean it's. 641 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 6: Almost like we there's nothing we can do. 642 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 3: Really, it's true. 643 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 5: I mean part of it is as Americans, we have 644 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 5: this roller verse leaves notion that you know, a solution 645 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 5: is there and we're going to find it and we're 646 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 5: going to put it into place. And actually, bad stuff 647 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 5: and unpleasant stuff and complicated stuff goes on for generations, 648 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 5: and I think that's what we're facing. And I also 649 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 5: think that we and our age group grew up at 650 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 5: a time of a sense of international order which started 651 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,239 Speaker 5: to fall apart in the last twenty years, and the 652 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 5: world has returned to its normal arc of history, which 653 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 5: is chaos. 654 00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 2: One question, then, who in the continent of Europe when 655 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 2: the leaders speak, does East and Browner listen to went 656 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 2: Crow with all the Dreyfists and all the heritage of 657 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 2: the French in Syria and Arabia? Is it a different country? 658 00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 2: Who are you studying right now? 659 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 5: I'm sorry Europe and Europe, yes, I mean I think 660 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:03,560 Speaker 5: that Europe is also. 661 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 3: Wits end about what to do about itself. 662 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 5: I mean, none of these countries is well off economically, 663 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 5: and I think that Macron is trying through this to 664 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 5: return France to an important position diplomatically and globally, and 665 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to work. 666 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 2: This has been a treat. Come more off, try ethan 667 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 2: broader with us. Usually we speak from israel I Onnents. 668 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 2: It rushed five or six minutes. This has been a 669 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 2: wonderful treat, Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 670 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 2: up after this. 671 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 672 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 673 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 674 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 675 00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 2: The newspapers, finally, the acclaim. She spent all morning three 676 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 2: am working on this. What do you have, LISATAO? 677 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 9: Okay, I'm taking you back to my childhood memories. The 678 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 9: Mirriam Dictionary, the linen cover, going through it, Toby English papers, 679 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,720 Speaker 9: the tabs, trying to search it, a lick in the finger, 680 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:13,440 Speaker 9: you know all that. 681 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,920 Speaker 2: Okay, okay. 682 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 9: So the last time the hardcover edition was updated was 683 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 9: twenty two years ago. So words have been added, you know, 684 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:25,280 Speaker 9: to the website. 685 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 3: But this is the first time. 686 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,959 Speaker 9: Yes, the twelfth edition, okay, because you have to add 687 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:37,840 Speaker 9: words like riz dad bought cold brew hard pass. 688 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 2: I'm a huge folks, the digital app of Miriam Wester. 689 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:46,000 Speaker 2: Good morning, Springfield, Massachusetts. Thank you, thank you, Lisa. You 690 00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 2: know I have to buy that, Yes you do. I 691 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:53,800 Speaker 2: mean it's just the doorstep. Does anyone use a dictionary anymore? 692 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 6: No? 693 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 3: But no, apparently they're selling. They still sell a lot 694 00:34:58,080 --> 00:34:59,520 Speaker 3: of these. They do. 695 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 6: Every university has huge libraries. 696 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 3: What do they do with I just study. 697 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 9: Study, stew about it? 698 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 2: What Steve Schwartzman did single handedly resurrecting his like what 699 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 2: he did at the Frick, Schwartzman resurrected the New York 700 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,319 Speaker 2: Public Library. Now what now? What I mean? 701 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,000 Speaker 6: That was always my study hall, I always study at 702 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 6: the library. But oh yeah, but then he did your 703 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:26,759 Speaker 6: research there too, So I don't know. 704 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 3: Well I do. 705 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 9: I take my I'm taking her, my daughter on the 706 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,720 Speaker 9: college tours and we go to each library. Each library 707 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,600 Speaker 9: there's just kids on laptop, so like, what are they doing? 708 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 6: But I don't know. 709 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:42,840 Speaker 3: Gosh, oh yes I do. Okay. 710 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 9: So Costco is opening its books after the close, okay, 711 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 9: so ahead of it, we had some news at an 712 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 9: increase in foot traffic. It was from a perk that 713 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 9: they gave to the executive members. Visa me, okay, I'm executive. 714 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 9: Sure you are full disclosure. So early this summer, what 715 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 9: you basically yet is the stores open an hour earlier 716 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,680 Speaker 9: for you. And they're saying that people shoppers have been 717 00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 9: visiting more quickly and more often. So basically they're coming in, 718 00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,080 Speaker 9: they're doing the things faster, so they're not filling the 719 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,799 Speaker 9: carts as much, okay, but they're coming back more. 720 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:16,520 Speaker 3: Are you doing that? 721 00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:22,959 Speaker 2: No, she feels cars, cars and her kids can't see 722 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,680 Speaker 2: over the top of the stuff from there. 723 00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,920 Speaker 9: But apparently it's working for them, so they're getting more 724 00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:28,239 Speaker 9: if the. 725 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,720 Speaker 2: Top six hundred dollars yet at Costco. 726 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,680 Speaker 9: I just said normal, yeah, yeah, I did. It was 727 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:34,200 Speaker 9: kind of oof. 728 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 6: That one hurt, but painfully what else to you? 729 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 3: All Right? 730 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,799 Speaker 9: So Financial Times they have this interesting look into the 731 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 9: billion dollar quest to live beyond one hundred years old. 732 00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 9: All of these companies putting money into it. Okay, so 733 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 9: researchers have been studying for years, but they say it 734 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 9: kicked off in twenty twenty two. They had the launch 735 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 9: of Alto's lab in twenty twenty two, three billion dollars 736 00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 9: of financial backing, so big money. It's still, you know, 737 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 9: the highest profile longevity biotech, but now there's hundreds of 738 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 9: other startups just like it that are trying to do 739 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,280 Speaker 9: the same thing. Big names back in it, like Sam 740 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 9: Altman is really into this, and they just go into 741 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 9: the money behind it. They're saying that it could be 742 00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 9: this huge jump, kind of like how weight loss drugs, 743 00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 9: like what they did the big boom of weight loss drugs, 744 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 9: are saying longevity is going to be this next thing 745 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:22,239 Speaker 9: to come in. 746 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 6: So I don't I mean give me eighty eighty good 747 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 6: ones on the you. 748 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:26,920 Speaker 3: Don't what a hundred plus? No? 749 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:31,319 Speaker 2: No, I hate you for bringing up the Mirriam Webster thing. 750 00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:37,440 Speaker 2: Oh I have to. I mean I'm a cute. I 751 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,520 Speaker 2: mean they've got it on their website right now. They 752 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 2: got m dash. My mother used to do m dashes, 753 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 2: which is like a long line. 754 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,400 Speaker 3: Okay, to this day, I don't know how. 755 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:46,759 Speaker 2: To use it. 756 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,480 Speaker 9: You know, you know what you have to order to 757 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,920 Speaker 9: Taylor Swift's vinyl album. 758 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:52,960 Speaker 3: Yep, there you go. 759 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,240 Speaker 2: I don't do the vinyl. 760 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:57,800 Speaker 9: You have to build the vinyl. 761 00:37:58,160 --> 00:37:59,399 Speaker 2: Do you have the vinyl at home? 762 00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,720 Speaker 3: No, Dad a huge collection. 763 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 2: That's a juge ju jute. 764 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 1: Yeah. 765 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 3: The kids so not the new. 766 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:06,720 Speaker 2: The kids do the new vinyl. 767 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,120 Speaker 9: No, my kids haven't got but it's it's Taylor Swifts 768 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,320 Speaker 9: new album, so vinyl exclusive. 769 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 3: I'm showing you thirty five bucks. That's what it's going 770 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:14,719 Speaker 3: to cost you. 771 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. 772 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:22,000 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 773 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,400 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 774 00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Dot com the 775 00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 776 00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 777 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,440 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal