1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat fitz Morris, 2 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:09,159 Speaker 1: joined as always by Bau mcbrair. The first tournament of 3 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five is the Century and Exclusive Events with 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: a smaller field, played at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: and we are going to preview this century from a 6 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: betting perspective. We'll tell you who we have on our 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,159 Speaker 1: betting cards, and we will give you our one and 8 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: done picks at the end of the show. Bo We 9 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: have not done a golf show together since the Tour Championship, 10 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: which was shortly before the start of the NFL season. 11 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: I know both of us have been very busy with 12 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,599 Speaker 1: fantasy football for the last four months, but the fantasy 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: season is now over and we are diving headfirst back 14 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: into golf. Got off to kind of a slow start 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 1: last year on the show, some out left field winners 16 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: in January thwarted our wagers a little bit, but then 17 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: started getting hot in February wound up having a pretty 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: good year. I would say, what do you say we 19 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: get off to a better start in twenty twenty five 20 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: and just get this thing rolling in Hawaii. 21 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean as well as we finished up. I 22 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: had almost forgotten the five straight long shot winners we 23 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: had in January of twenty twenty four. So yeah, I 24 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: think that outliers can all being considered. I think we're 25 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 2: gonna nail some more long shots this year. And obviously 26 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: if Scotty goes on another run once his hand heals up, 27 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 2: then I guess we can bet on him if the 28 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:29,479 Speaker 2: odds are right. 29 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, we don't have to worry about Scotty in this one. 30 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 1: More on that in just a minute. So, as mentioned earlier, 31 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 1: the Century does have a smaller field. This tournament used 32 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: to be open only two tournament winners from the previous 33 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: calendar year. Now it's open to winners from the previous 34 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: calendar year and anyone who finished inside the top fifty 35 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: of the fed Ex Cup standings. This is a no 36 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: cut event. Everyone's gonna be around for all four rounds, 37 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: and the season starts with a bird fast bow. The 38 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is a par seventy three 39 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: that plays two seven ninety six yards, Yes, a par 40 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: seventy three. There are only three par threes on this course. 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: The fair ways of the Plantation Course very wide and spacious, 42 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: perfect for a player like me. The greens are big 43 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: and slow, perfect player like me. Yeah, you are going 44 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: to see players put aggressively here. These are not exactly 45 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: lightning fast greens. Players are going to hit a ton 46 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: of greens in this tournament, so scrambling is not that 47 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: big a factor. It's all about hitting it close and 48 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: making pots really, so occasionally we will see some heavy 49 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: wins at Kapalua that can drive up scores, but otherwise, 50 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 1: the biggest challenge comes from the elevation changes you get 51 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: on some of the holes, and they can be pretty extreme. Bo. 52 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: For example, the eighteenth hole, perfect example, six hundred and 53 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 1: seventy seven yard par five, but despite the fact that 54 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: it measures just under seven hundred yards, it's reachable in 55 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: two for these guys because it is a monstrous drop 56 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: from tee to green. I don't know about you, Bo, 57 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: but I love watching these players hit those big sweeping 58 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 1: draws into the green on number eighteen because there's trouble 59 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,399 Speaker 1: on the left, no trouble at all on the right, 60 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: so basically everyone is laying it out way right and 61 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: trying to play a draw into this green. You'll see 62 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: a lot of people miss right, yeah, So forecast for 63 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: this week, though there should not be a lot of wind. 64 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: They are expecting gorgeous weather at Kapalua for this temperatures 65 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: in the low eighties, Sonny to partly sunny all week 66 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: long with wins in the five to fifteen mile an 67 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: hour range. 68 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 2: Terrible. 69 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: It's not gonna suck. Yeah, it's not gonna suck in 70 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: kapiloua bow, especially for someone like me who's stuck in 71 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: the Upper Midwest. The defending champion is Chris Kirk. He 72 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: finished twenty nine under par last year to beat Saheith 73 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: the Gala by one stroke. In twenty twenty three, John 74 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: Rahm one here with the score of twenty seven under. 75 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: Cameron Smith was thirty four under par tournament record in 76 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. In twenty twenty one, Harris English finished 77 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: twenty five under and won a playoff against Joaquin Neeman. 78 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: And in twenty twenty with the wind blowing, Justin Thomas 79 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: finished with a relatively high winning score of minus fourteen, 80 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:33,359 Speaker 1: beating Patrick Reid and Xander Schoffley in a playoff. For 81 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: the most part, if you want to win the Century, 82 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: you had best go low in all four rounds, BO, 83 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: do you have anything you want to add about the 84 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 1: Plantation Course and what it's going to take to win 85 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: here this week? 86 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: Just I mean give you props for such an outstanding 87 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 2: promotion of this golf course and our very first show 88 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 2: of the season. So yeah, that's excellent. I will just 89 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 2: add that the field is great. They introduced this top 90 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 2: fifty addition to the Century Tation last season and so 91 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 2: that expanded field from usually thirty two to forty guys 92 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 2: used to be in this field. Now there's more. It 93 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 2: gives us more talent, more more players that can go low, 94 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 2: especially in conditions like this. And I tune in for 95 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 2: the Century because some of the most breathtaking scenery that 96 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 2: you're ever gonna see on the PGA Tour or anywhere 97 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 2: in the world. Next to Tory Pines, it might be 98 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 2: the most beautiful golf course in the world on the 99 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 2: island of Maui. Terrible weather, eighty two degrees, light breeze, 100 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 2: It's just gorgeous. That eighteenth hole is on a perched 101 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 2: on a cliff, which is why you get guys that 102 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 2: just bomb it down their four hundred and twenty yards 103 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 2: straight downhill and it bounds and it rolls forever, and 104 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 2: then they have a three hundred yard shot down hill 105 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 2: where you say they hit the sweeping draws. But from 106 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: the behind view you can see the Pacific Ocean as 107 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 2: far as you can as far as I can see. 108 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 2: All it is is ocean, and that's your approach shot 109 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 2: coming into the clubhouse on eighteen. It's just breathtaking. So 110 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 2: that's my take is even though the golf is going 111 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 2: to be great and it's back for twenty twenty five 112 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 2: and we're all juiced up to be betting on golf again, 113 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 2: I just love the scenery. I just love looking at 114 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 2: Hawaiian landscape where you get all these crazy hillside elevation changes, 115 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 2: perfect lush greenery, which we don't have a lot around 116 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 2: here because we don't get a lot of rain. But 117 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 2: Hawaii it rains all the time. I won't rain this week. 118 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 2: I just love I love this tournament because it's just beautiful. 119 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, marvelous course, marvelous field, and we will get to 120 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: that field in just a moment. But first, speaking of betting, 121 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: bow download the free Betting pros app for iOS and 122 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: Android with Sportsbooks Sinc. You can automatically track your bets 123 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: across all major sports books in one spot. Easily monitor 124 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: your bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props, 125 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: and parlays. Create some betting systems to find winning trends 126 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 1: and profitable opportunities. Get a free trial of Betting Pros 127 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 1: Premium by downloading the app and activating your trial on 128 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: the upgrade screen. All right, let's get to the odds 129 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: for the century. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. As 130 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: of Monday afternoon, Scottie Scheffler not in the field again. 131 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: He cut his hand in a Christmas cooking mishap that 132 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: left a deep puncture wound. He is expected to miss 133 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: three to four weeks. So Xanderschoffley becomes the new favorites 134 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,559 Speaker 1: at plus five hundred, followed by Justin Thomas and Colin 135 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: Morikawa at plus one thousand. Sung J. M. Levig Oberg 136 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: and Patrick Cantley are at plus eighteen hundred. Victor Hovlin 137 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: plus two thousand, Sam Burns, Cory Connors and Tony Fena 138 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: plus twenty eight hundred. It's the Heathagala and Adam Scott 139 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: are plus three thousand. Bo who do you like from 140 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: among the. 141 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 2: Favorites as far as the favorites go, I'm partial to 142 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 2: Colin Morikawa. He's the first favorite. It's given me double 143 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: digit odds. As much as I love Xanderschoffli, most of 144 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 2: the time, I don't see him as a plus five 145 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 2: hundred type of player, especially when the weather is going 146 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: to be perfect. You mentioned he was close to winning 147 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: back in twenty nineteen when the wind was up. I 148 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 2: think he's more of a grinded out type of player, 149 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 2: where Colin Morikawa and pristine conditions can go low and 150 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 2: has shown the ball striking ability to win just about anywhere. 151 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: As long as his short game and putting are mediocre, 152 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 2: he's going to be right there. And at ten to one, 153 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 2: that's my favorite to win this among those short odds players. 154 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 2: If you go further down, I like Victor Hovland a 155 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 2: lot for the same reasons I like Colin Morikawa. Ball 156 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 2: striking's immaculate, and you don't really have to worry about 157 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 2: a player's wedge condition early on the season. We sometimes 158 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 2: worry about Victor Hovland's short game. This won't be one 159 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 2: of those weeks. He's a guy that can go low anywhere, 160 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 2: and then to round it out, I think Tony Fenaw 161 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 2: is another player where ball striking again off the tee, 162 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 2: great on approach, and he can get a hot putter 163 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 2: just as well as anybody. And he's a twenty eight 164 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 2: to one. That's that seems crazy long for a player 165 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 2: of his caliber. Maybe coming off a kind of an 166 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 2: off season last year. I think he's gonna be back 167 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 2: in form right off the bat. 168 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: I like how you framed the value proposition with Shaffley 169 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: versus Marikawa, Like, I have no objection to Xander being 170 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: the favorites, and it's certainly warranted, But like, should the 171 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 1: odds be twice as long on Colin Marikawa? I don't 172 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: think so, and I think ten to one is a 173 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: really good price for him. He's made five appearances here 174 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: bo and has finished no worse than seventh in any 175 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: of them. This course, yeah, obviously this course suits him well. 176 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: Xander has won here in twenty nineteen, runner up in 177 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, took fifth in twenty twenty one, so he 178 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 1: also has a fine track record here, although he hasn't 179 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: finished better than tenth in any of his last three 180 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:03,599 Speaker 1: starts at Kapalua. You mentioned Hoveland, his track record is 181 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: a little more spotty here no better than eighteenth in 182 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 1: four starts at the century and bo he is dealing 183 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,559 Speaker 1: with that fractured pinky towel. I don't know if that's 184 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: going to affect him or not. I know that I 185 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: don't know if I actually fractured it, but I jammed 186 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 1: my pinky toe once and I was not playing softball 187 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: that night. It was. It was a painful injury to 188 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: deal with. 189 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 2: So well, I've broken my pinky toe on a bed frame. 190 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 2: I just think a pinky finger and a golf swing. 191 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 2: I don't think it's that involved. I don't think it 192 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 2: like it's not somewhere where you're walking up and down 193 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 2: these cliffs all week and it's going to be hard 194 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 2: for him to walk around. It's going to be part 195 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 2: of his grip. He might even have a little bit 196 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 2: of tape on those fingers just to just to get 197 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 2: him straightened out. But I don't think that's going to 198 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 2: be an issue in really, his past history for me 199 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 2: is baked into that twenty to one odds because as 200 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 2: far as talent goes, he's right there with the year 201 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 2: with Colin and Xander as far as talent and upside. 202 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 2: So to get him at twenty to one. I think 203 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 2: that's already baking in his history at Kapalua, being a 204 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 2: little bit less outstanding. 205 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: And on a course, like you said, bo, that Devalue 206 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: is scrambling. So if you do that and get Victor 207 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: Hovlin and just on ball striking, yeah, I understand the appeal. 208 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: Justin Thomas seems to love Kapalua. He's won here twice 209 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty and twenty seventeen. He's finished third here twice, 210 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: fifth here in twenty twenty two. Also, Justin Thomas finished 211 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: top three in the two events he has played since 212 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: the Tour Championship. Second at the Zozo Championship in late October, 213 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: third at the Hero World Challenge in early December. Ludwig 214 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: Oberg's awesome, bo I, just I don't want to bet 215 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 1: him here. He was forty seventh here in his debut. 216 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: Until this budding superstar shows some sort of aptitude for 217 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: the Plantation course, I'm just gonna avoid him. 218 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 2: You know, honestly, he's he's here because of the top 219 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,559 Speaker 2: fifty exemption. I mean, we're still waiting for that Ludvig 220 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 2: Oberg win to break through, and he very well could 221 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 2: do it. Here. I just think his odds are a 222 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 2: little short for what he hasn't done on the PGA Tour, 223 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 2: which obviously he's showed up plenty of times where we're 224 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 2: intrigued and on the edge of our seat. Oh, this 225 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 2: is gonna be the one for Ludwig to win, and 226 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 2: he hasn't done it yet. But I'm with you, I'm 227 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 2: not gonna bet him here because he might be just 228 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 2: as good of a pick on the West Coast Swing 229 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 2: when they're done with Hawaii after next week, we're gonna 230 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 2: be getting Tory Pines and Riviera and Pebble Beach. That's 231 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 2: when I'm gonna be firing up Ludwig Oberg because I mean, 232 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 2: the Hawaii thing is just it's such a unique little 233 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 2: twist to what they usually play, especially Kapoloo being par 234 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 2: seventy three and crazy long, crazy elevation changes. This is 235 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 2: not the time to take a risk on a short 236 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 2: odds player who's really has shown us anything at this course. 237 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: Agreed. Now, an international star who has shown us something 238 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: on this course Sung JM. Four trips here. He has 239 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: finished fifth, eighth, thirteenth, and fifth, So I'm intrigued by him. 240 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 1: Patrick Cantley has shown some aptitude here. Six appearances, he's 241 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: finished somewhere between twelfth and sixteenth, and four of them 242 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: best finishes were a pair of fourths. And Bob, what 243 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: do you think about Saheith Thigala at thirty to one 244 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: after a second place finished at Chris Kirk last year 245 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: by just one stroke? 246 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 2: I mean, it was a little fluky last year. He's 247 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 2: his ball striking was so pure last year at this event, 248 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 2: and it didn't follow through the rest of the season. 249 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: I think that if you get anything with Saheith, it's 250 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 2: inconsistency on the ball striking, and so yes, he can 251 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 2: get hot and push for a title anywhere. But I'm 252 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 2: going to play the percentages and just say it was 253 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 2: kind of fluky that he showed up at Coppoloo last 254 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 2: year and almost won the thing. Chris Kirk was a 255 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 2: worthy champion. I just didn't nobody saw Sahiti Goala coming 256 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: last year at the Century, and he really didn't follow 257 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 2: it up anywhere else as far as similar courses or 258 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 2: something else that demanded similar skill sets. It was pretty 259 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 2: fluky for me to see sah there. But thirty to 260 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 2: one's okay if you like him, play him all. 261 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: Right, Let's look at some of the mid range options. 262 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: We have Russell Henley, Robert McIntyre, Ben On and Akshay 263 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: Bettilla at plus thirty five hundred, Max Grazerman plus four thousand, 264 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely, Jason Day, JT. Postin and USA Ryder Cup 265 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: captain Keegan Bradley are plus forty five hundred, and Taylor 266 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: Pendrith Seewoo, Kim, Brian Harmon and Alex Norin are plus 267 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: five thousand. How about the gentleman from this group? Oh, 268 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 1: anyone tickle your fancy? 269 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 2: Actually no, not a single one of them. I'm gonna 270 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: essue this entire group mid range that should be long range. 271 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 2: I think there's some long range options with better actual 272 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: chance to in this tournament than the guys that show 273 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 2: up in this range. I just think they're all too 274 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 2: short for their chances to win. And my opinion how 275 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 2: my modeling came out, there's a couple longer shot odds 276 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 2: wise that I think are much more suited for this 277 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 2: golf course to win. 278 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: Not even your guy. Akshay ac Batia was a respectable 279 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: fourteenth in his debut here last year, and he's been 280 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: on pretty fine form in recent events, but cannot interest 281 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: you in Akhay. 282 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 2: If he plays next week at Honoli at the Sony, 283 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 2: then I'll be on him. It's a different style course 284 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: he's not He's not a bomber who really excels with 285 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 2: long irons that you're going to see a lot of 286 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 2: at Cappolua, and his his short game is his proximity 287 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 2: on anything besides a wedge has been off. So I 288 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 2: think I'll skip Okhay this week, but there will be 289 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 2: plenty of chances for me to get my baby angel 290 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 2: Okhay the on the betting card this season. 291 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: Now there's one guy who does kind of interest me. 292 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: Ben On fourth in his debut here last year, and 293 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: he won his most recent event, the Genesis Championship in Korea, 294 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: a DP World Tour events that was back in October, 295 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: so comes in pretty good form. End has shown that, 296 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: you know, he knows how to handle this course. So 297 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by ben On. At what did I say 298 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: the odds word for ben On plus thirty five hundred five? Yeah, 299 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: I mean if it gets if it gets to fifty, 300 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: I'm all over. 301 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: It, oh for sure. 302 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. And then two guys from this group who 303 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: I think are more interesting for possibly top five or 304 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: top ten bets, Jason Day and JT. Post In. Day's 305 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: just got a pretty solid track record here, three top 306 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: tens in the last ten years and post in fifth 307 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: year last year, and has been in pretty good form 308 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: over the last three months, and obviously just a lights 309 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: out putter, so I think he's maybe worth considering for 310 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: a top five or top ten. What about the long 311 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: shots bo guys with odds of plus fifty five hundred 312 00:16:59,120 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: or longer. 313 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 2: Well, I of course became a little bit known for 314 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 2: my long shot picks here, and I had a couple 315 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 2: winners last year, a couple winners the year before on 316 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 2: really deep shots. So I'm going to go back to 317 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 2: the well with two guys that I won long shot 318 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 2: bets with last year, the first one being Nick Dunlap 319 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 2: at seventy to one. This dude's playing better than anybody 320 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 2: in the planet right now, other than Scotti Scheffler, who's 321 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 2: playing better than Nick Dunlap at this point in time, 322 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 2: He's still I mean, he's just phenomenal. Seventy to one 323 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 2: on a course that rewards ball striking, rewards aggressive Tee 324 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 2: de greenplay. I don't see any way that Nick Dunlap 325 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 2: doesn't compete for this win. And at seventy to one, 326 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 2: I'm all over that. I'm max betting Nick Dunlap at 327 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 2: seventy to one. 328 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 1: Nice, Now are the initials of this second guy by 329 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: any chance? 330 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 2: JK Yeah, and I'm not kidding. Yeah, Mister the Big 331 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 2: Siesta as he became known when he illustriously won the 332 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 2: Mexico Open at Vedonta last year at fifty five to one, 333 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 2: he's getting one hundred and seventy to one odds to 334 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 2: win this. And we're talking about a guy who hits 335 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 2: the absolute smithereens out of the ball and is just 336 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 2: a great t shot and approach player. He's kind of 337 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 2: like Victor but unpolished, where his short game really worries 338 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 2: you sometimes and sometimes his putting is awful. But Jake 339 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 2: Knapp on this kind of golf course, he's better than 340 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 2: one seventy to one. I handicapped him at eighty to one, 341 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 2: and so when I saw one seventy, that was that 342 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 2: was it. That was I didn't need any more convincing. 343 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: I saw those odds ball. I pictured you seeing those 344 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: odds and looking like a cartoon wolf with the eyes 345 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 1: popping out of it. Yeah, I mean obviously I knew 346 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: that was gonna Yeah, it'd you pretty excited. 347 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 2: It just comes down to as any smart sports better 348 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 2: would do in any sport, is to handicap your own 349 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 2: lines before you look at the official lines that you're 350 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 2: betting and find discrepancies. And that's so that's why I 351 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 2: kind of skipping the mid range, because I had those 352 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: guys handicapped at seventy or eighty or in ben On's case, fifty, 353 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,239 Speaker 2: and they came in much shorter than I expected. So 354 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 2: I'm just not going to bet on those guys. They 355 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 2: could very well win, but I'm just looking for those 356 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 2: discrepancies on how I see it playing out. 357 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: Are you all tempted by Chris Kirk? I mean, sixty 358 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: to one odds for the defending champ and a guy 359 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 1: who seems to play well in Hawaii almost seems a 360 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: little disrespectful. 361 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, it is. It is in Captain Kirk has He's 362 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,719 Speaker 2: gotten us there a few times over the years, and 363 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 2: I don't see any reason why you wouldn't bet him. 364 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 2: There's no reason not to bet him at sixty to one. 365 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 2: I'm more interested in his top ten line because I 366 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 2: don't While I don't see him going back to back 367 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 2: in this field, he could absolutely be there because he 368 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 2: played outstanding last year, and so it was for me, 369 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 2: it's just like, that's a really nice top ten bet. 370 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,919 Speaker 2: Usually five or six to one for that range to 371 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 2: get a top ten out of the defending champion, that 372 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 2: seems like a pretty dec and bet. 373 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: Yeah. The only reason why I didn't like auto bet 374 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: him the minute I saw him a sixty to one, Like, 375 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: he hasn't played all that well. He's played maybe three 376 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 1: events in the last three months and it hasn't been 377 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: in great forman No, so you wish he was a 378 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 1: little sharper coming into this spot. Yeah, But sixty to one. 379 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you don't know fits that he isn't out 380 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 2: there just taking cart He's not playing two dollars NASA's 381 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 2: at the local club, taking everybody's lunch money, playing for 382 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 2: cocktails at the nineteenth hole. That Chris Chris Kirk might 383 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,439 Speaker 2: be doing that all season instead of playing silly season 384 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 2: events like some of these guys do. 385 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 1: What about Eric Cole fifteenth here a year ago, fantastic 386 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: putter seventy five to one does he interest you at all? 387 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 2: No, he's played terribly the last calendar year and he's 388 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 2: just been so inconsistent ball striking wise. He's a great putter, 389 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: don't never, He'll never be able to take that from him, 390 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 2: But his off the tea game has been atrocious. His 391 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 2: approach game has been inconsistent at best. So until he 392 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 2: starts to turn around how he's putting the ball in play, 393 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 2: I don't. I don't think there's any reason to bet 394 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 2: him until he starts showing signs of life. 395 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: Fair all right, What does your betting card look like 396 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: as of now bow? 397 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 2: All right? So I have outright tickets on Colin more 398 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 2: Kaba at ten to one, Victor Hovelin at twenty to one, 399 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 2: Tony Fenow at twenty eight to one. I have top 400 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 2: five kickers on all three of those guys, and then 401 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 2: I have dun Lap Nick Dunlap at seventy to one 402 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,360 Speaker 2: and Jake Nap at one hundred and seventy to one, 403 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,360 Speaker 2: with top ten and top twenty ladders on those two guys. 404 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 1: Wow, very nice, we're coming out the gate hot. Yeah, 405 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: So right now I've got outrights on Kalin Morikawa ten 406 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: to one. Sung JM at eighteen to one and ben 407 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: On at thirty five to one. I've got a top 408 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 1: ten bet for JT posting at plus two to eighty. 409 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: I've got a top five for oh excuse me. I've 410 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 1: got a top five and an outright for Jake Nap 411 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,159 Speaker 1: one hundred and one hundred and seventy to one to 412 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: win and twenty two to one for a top five 413 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 1: for Jake Nap. And I'm going to be adding some 414 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: dun Lap to the mix. I got to get Nick 415 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: down as enthusiastic as you are about mister Dunlap. I 416 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: have bad into the card. 417 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 2: That kid's a He's a current star, future superstar on tour. 418 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: He's still pretty young too. 419 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: All right now for the one and done competition. So 420 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: last year Bo was pretty much clobbering me all year, 421 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 1: but I saved Scottie Scheffler for the FedEx Cup Championship. 422 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: He won me some sort of generational money there, thirty 423 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: million whatever it was, and I went flying past Bow, 424 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: but it was kind of a hollow victory. So I 425 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: suggested to Bo that we cut out the FedEx Cup 426 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: playoffs this year so no one gets an unfair advantage 427 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,120 Speaker 1: when the fields are small and the winter checks are enormous. 428 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 1: So Bo, you get to lead us off this year. 429 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 1: Who is your one and done pick at the Century? 430 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Tony Finow. 431 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: Tony Fow all right, I am not betting this guy, 432 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: but I like him for one and done here because 433 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: of his track record. Because I don't know where else 434 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: to use him. I'm gonna use Justin Thomas j T 435 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,639 Speaker 1: coming out with jt okay, and that is going to 436 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: do it for this the first episode of the Betting 437 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: Pros PGA podcast for twenty twenty five, even though we're 438 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 1: still recording this in twenty twenty four, but we will 439 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: be back next week in twenty twenty five for a 440 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 1: preview of the Sony Open, the second event of the 441 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: Hawaiian Swing. Until then, so long everyone. Thanks for listening 442 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, 443 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us is by leaving a 444 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 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