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Speaker 2: in with a professional here Seema Shaw, global investment strategist
Speaker 2: at Principal Global Investors. Sema, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 2: us this morning. Love to get your take from what
Speaker 2: we heard from FED Chairman j Powell yesterday.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on. Well, I think the big thing.
Speaker 4: The big takeaway was really that the Fed wants to
Speaker 4: coverte It's not a case of, you know, going through
Speaker 4: the inflation data. There may be a little bit of
Speaker 4: a hesitancy, but certainly Powell seem to be somewhat dismissive
Speaker 4: of those upside inflation surprises. He put it down to seasonality.
Speaker 4: So I think the big takeaway is is that if
Speaker 4: BED wants to cut rates, they need a really good
Speaker 4: reason not to cut rates. So from that perspective of sudden,
Speaker 4: it looks like three cuts are on their way for
Speaker 4: this year.
Speaker 5: And where are you penciling in those cuts? Are we
Speaker 5: seeing those in June, July as soon as May?
Speaker 3: So we have been.
Speaker 4: We've had a forecast for a while for the first
Speaker 4: cut to come in June, followed by September and December.
Speaker 4: So this is fairly in line I think with where
Speaker 4: the market is pricing today, although I think the market
Speaker 4: is maybe starting to price even more cuts than before,
Speaker 4: so maybe some expectation that they could be there. But
Speaker 4: certainly for us, I think even though Powell was quite dubbish,
Speaker 4: I would actually goes for us to call HI dubbish
Speaker 4: rather than hawkish. You still need to have some clear
Speaker 4: evidence that inflation has abated and that those two months
Speaker 4: of jat and fedure anomalies rather than a new rising trend.
Speaker 2: Guess a little bit less than now we're going to
Speaker 2: hear from the Bank of England. What do you expect
Speaker 2: to hear from the BOE.
Speaker 4: Well, that's an interesting one because so of course very
Speaker 4: unlikely to have any kind of change to policy. I
Speaker 4: think that that is certainly the full expectation for the market.
Speaker 4: The narrative is interesting at the moment because it's quite
Speaker 4: different to the US, where the UK is really struggling.
Speaker 4: The economy has been much much weaker than the US,
Speaker 4: and the inflation number is the latest one coming in a.
Speaker 3: Little bit lower than expected.
Speaker 4: So they have a clear path to cuts now, and
Speaker 4: certainly from our perspective, there is a rising chance that
Speaker 4: you get sooner rather than later, potentially as soon as June,
Speaker 4: which you know, if you do have a number of
Speaker 4: central banks moving at the same time, that will make
Speaker 4: things life easier for each other and certainly for the
Speaker 4: currency markets.
Speaker 5: So should we still expect the FED to be leading
Speaker 5: the way in terms of central banks, at least in
Speaker 5: development markets making those decisions to cut rate.
Speaker 3: So I think it will be coincidental, to be honest.
Speaker 4: I think for the ECB and the Bank of England,
Speaker 4: they're fundamentals of their economies really are calling.
Speaker 3: For rate cards in the very near future.
Speaker 4: So if the FED didn't come in June, I don't
Speaker 4: think that's a reason to stop for the ECB in
Speaker 4: the Bank of England to put off their rate cuts, certainly,
Speaker 4: but it just so happens. I think in a way
Speaker 4: that the FED is probably going to be cutting around
Speaker 4: the same time, and I think their meeting does come first,
Speaker 4: so they will be leading the way generally speaking, though,
Speaker 4: you know, the US does have a very very different
Speaker 4: picture to what you're seeing from Europe and the UK,
Speaker 4: which is why. But yesterday's meeting that was somewhat dubbish.
Speaker 4: I mean, you have a strong growth picture, I mean stronger.
Speaker 4: They raised their forecast quite considerably for this year. You've
Speaker 4: got a higher inflation forecast, and yet you've still got
Speaker 4: rate cuts coming at the same time as other countries
Speaker 4: or the economies around the world, which are pretty much
Speaker 4: in stagnation, if not already in recession.
Speaker 2: All right, Sema, So for the US market here, if
Speaker 2: we are in fact in a reasonably doublish situation from
Speaker 2: the Fed's perspective, what are you telling your clients to
Speaker 2: do here.
Speaker 6: In the US in terms of maybe asset allocation.
Speaker 3: Yeah, look, this is a risk on time.
Speaker 4: We have been overweighting equities in credit for the last
Speaker 4: couple of months in the expectation that the economy we
Speaker 4: expect it to slow a little bit but suddenly to
Speaker 4: avoid recession. But we've also been anticipating the rate carts,
Speaker 4: and together that soft landing with rate cards is a
Speaker 4: perfect situation for equities and credit.
Speaker 3: Now importantly for Ecuitis, this is.
Speaker 4: Also going to be a time where you can start
Speaker 4: to really look at the very unloved parts of the market,
Speaker 4: the bits where the valuations are still quite attractive, of
Speaker 4: which there are many. So within the US, although we
Speaker 4: do still like that large cap tech space, we are
Speaker 4: edging into that small cap space.
Speaker 3: We think that that should do well.
Speaker 4: The valuation gap is fairly significant and we think it
Speaker 4: could close up a little bit over the coming months.
Speaker 4: And then there's other parts of the world. If you
Speaker 4: look across the LA in American valuations there are very interesting.
Speaker 4: Their fundamentals are pretty strong. The political scene is a
Speaker 4: little bit less volatile than it was previously, So there
Speaker 4: are pockets around the world, But actually our favorite region
Speaker 4: is still the US.
Speaker 3: And as I said, we're looking a little bit more
Speaker 3: at small cap.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was going to say the Russell two thousand
Speaker 5: still down fifteen percent from that twenty twenty one high.
Speaker 5: Is that, to your point, an opportunity or is there
Speaker 5: any type of concern that the market is still being
Speaker 5: very much driven by those megacap technology companies.
Speaker 4: I would say that both those things that you just
Speaker 4: said are opportunities. You know, the valuate, the fact that
Speaker 4: the small cap space hasn't performed as well. There's a
Speaker 4: bit of a catch up trade within there, and although
Speaker 4: the big cap have done very well, as I said,
Speaker 4: we're not really pulling back our exposure there. It's driving
Speaker 4: the market, but there is a movement that if you
Speaker 4: can really get this cyclical upton, which is certainly what
Speaker 4: Power's pointing to, that should be very good news. Historically,
Speaker 4: when the FEAD has been cutting and it's been in
Speaker 4: even if it's a very very gentle expansion, that has
Speaker 4: typically been when small caps have outperformed.
Speaker 3: So there are of course risks.
Speaker 4: You know, if the FED is good it ends up
Speaker 4: delaying it's rat cats till later in the year, then
Speaker 4: small caps would struggle at least in the near term.
Speaker 4: So we have to go into it with a slightly
Speaker 4: longer term perspective, knowing that in the next three months
Speaker 4: you could see some significant volatility, but if you're looking
Speaker 4: out over a nine one year horizon, nine month one
Speaker 4: year horizon, then it looks fairly attractive.
Speaker 2: In a fixed income space. Do I just stay with
Speaker 2: the US treasury market or going to try to take
Speaker 2: on some credit risk here? What are you suggesting, Oh.
Speaker 4: We should be taking on credit risk. We have actually
Speaker 4: gone overweight to the high yield space. It has done
Speaker 4: incredibly well. And if you're just looking at CARA, if
Speaker 4: you just compare it even to acty risk premiums, high
Speaker 4: yield and IG are really presenting a fairly attractive proposition.
Speaker 4: Now there have been concerns, of course about the maturity
Speaker 4: will we know that that is building up. It's going
Speaker 4: to be probably one of the most significant maturity walls
Speaker 4: that we've seen in recent history. But the important thing
Speaker 4: is there is that as long as the economic backdrop
Speaker 4: is still very constructive, then really we're not expecting any
Speaker 4: kind of major liquidity issues. We're not expecting managers to struggle.
Speaker 4: They will have to refinance at higher rates, but their
Speaker 4: balance sheets are pretty strong. And importantly as well, that
Speaker 4: maturity will even within the high yield space, it's biased
Speaker 4: towards higher quality. So we're still saying high quality within
Speaker 4: the high yield. We're not really looking at the triple
Speaker 4: c's of that space. But there are still a lot
Speaker 4: of opportunities within that credit as long as you agree
Speaker 4: with us that there is an economic expansion in play
Speaker 4: and the FED is going to be cutting rates.
Speaker 3: Over the coming months.
Speaker 2: All right, Simma, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 2: Really appreciate getting some of your thoughts here today.
Speaker 6: Sima Shah.
Speaker 2: She is a senior at Global investment strategist at Principle
Speaker 2: Global Investors.
Speaker 6: BHILLY.
Speaker 2: Back in the day when I was on the cell side,
Speaker 2: I'd hop on the train at the drop of a
Speaker 2: hat to go down the ball more because.
Speaker 6: You had to go see t Rope Price. That was
Speaker 6: a huge I I vote, which I'll have you know.
Speaker 2: I got the twenty years straight out of those clowns
Speaker 2: down there, love the t Rope Price. Some super smart
Speaker 2: people down there, man, All my clients down there were
Speaker 2: very smart. You had to bring your a game. Sebastian
Speaker 2: Page joints us here. He's head of Global Multi Asset
Speaker 2: and he's the CIO at our good friends at Trope
Speaker 2: Price down in Baltimore, Sebastian.
Speaker 6: We heard from the FED yesterday.
Speaker 2: Looks like they were a little bit more maybe dubbish
Speaker 2: then some people had been thinking going into that meeting.
Speaker 2: We heard from the Bank of England just moments ago,
Speaker 2: again perhaps a little bit more dubbish than they had been.
Speaker 2: So it feels like global central banks are becoming more accommodative.
Speaker 6: How does that fit in with your world?
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a great question. And first, this is my
Speaker 7: first time in this studio. Super exciting. Thank you for
Speaker 7: the interest for coming into Baltimore. It we are nice
Speaker 7: with the sales side. Sometimes people refer to us as
Speaker 7: trow nice and just for the record, I want to
Speaker 7: say we're not clowns. Were serious. It's interesting that you
Speaker 7: ask about both the FED and the Bank of England,
Speaker 7: and we just had a decision on the Bank of England.
Speaker 7: I look at the policy rates, they're about the same,
Speaker 7: you know, five and a quarter five and a half percent.
Speaker 7: Then I compare wage growth, so Atlanta Fed tracker for
Speaker 7: wage growth in the US is at five percent. I
Speaker 7: go to England, it's at six percent. Service inflation services
Speaker 7: in England is that six percent. So we're looking at
Speaker 7: I think greater inflation pressures in England than in the US,
Speaker 7: even though the policy rates are the same. And I
Speaker 7: was just talking to our European economists and he's also
Speaker 7: worried about impending further inflation on the goods side for
Speaker 7: England because you know, it's it's an important country and
Speaker 7: the Red Sea is shut down in terms of a
Speaker 7: shipping link, so costs for shipping are increasing. So you know,
Speaker 7: I don't know everyone's bringing rates down. I'm worried about inflation.
Speaker 7: We're worried about upside risks to inflation.
Speaker 5: And so if inflation stays hot, the FED in theory
Speaker 5: drags their feet. We see cuts either extend out longer.
Speaker 5: Where are you putting money to work if that plays out?
Speaker 5: And that is the case, because right now I'm looking
Speaker 5: at Nasdaq one hundred mini futures are up almost one
Speaker 5: percent today.
Speaker 7: Yeah, let me give you three trades if you want
Speaker 7: to think about upside risk and inflation. Number One, in bonds,
Speaker 7: you know, go short duration. We're short duration. We have
Speaker 7: a cash overweight and a credit overweight. It's not a
Speaker 7: massive position for us, but we're short duration. Number two,
Speaker 7: in stocks, you have value versus growth in the value universe.
Speaker 7: You have energy stocks that are sensitive to inflation, and
Speaker 7: I think that overall values poised to upperform growth, especially
Speaker 7: because growth is rally read so much. If we get
Speaker 7: upside surprises and inflation going forward. And I'm not talking
Speaker 7: about going back to nine percent that we had, I'm
Speaker 7: just talking about inflation above expectations the consensus that it's
Speaker 7: really coming down smoothly, which is not. And the third
Speaker 7: trade we have in our portfolios is real asset equities.
Speaker 7: That's a diversified portfolio of stocks, including energy stocks, metals
Speaker 7: and mining metals and reats. So you get a position
Speaker 7: there that gives you, over time some equity exposure as
Speaker 7: opposed to just going into tips, and that responds to
Speaker 7: inflation in a kind of like four or five x
Speaker 7: response to the surprise, whereas tips would be more one
Speaker 7: to one. So it's a higher optane kind of inflation hedge.
Speaker 2: On a global scullcus, I know, you're head of global
Speaker 2: multi asset at trow price, where globally do you see
Speaker 2: some of the best opportunities Because I think I've been
Speaker 2: hearing more and more people talk about emerging markets, and
Speaker 2: I'm always a little concerned about that because isn't China
Speaker 2: like a third of the MSCI and why even invest
Speaker 2: in China?
Speaker 6: So how do you think about global allocation?
Speaker 7: So globally we're neutral between stocks outside the US and
Speaker 7: the US. The US is clearly the strongest economy, but
Speaker 7: a lot of this is already priced in. Look, we
Speaker 7: have raging debates in ours Allocation Committee about China because
Speaker 7: we've had an overweight emerging markets. We like to lean
Speaker 7: against the wind. We like to be long asset classes
Speaker 7: when they're really stretched, really cheap, and everybody's on the
Speaker 7: other side of the boat. If you do that over time,
Speaker 7: you can do well. But right now it's a huge
Speaker 7: debate about China. And you know, those that are worried
Speaker 7: about China are taught on my committee, are talking about
Speaker 7: structural changes. This is not the same place to invest
Speaker 7: as it was in the past. Nonetheless, you're so stretched there,
Speaker 7: it's like a coiled spring. You could see a rally.
Speaker 7: You could definitely see a rally, So you know, you
Speaker 7: try to stay close to neutral again there.
Speaker 5: Looking at the US market and videos up another two
Speaker 5: percent today, it's up eighty two percent year to date.
Speaker 5: Super Micros up two hundred and fifteen percent met as
Speaker 5: up forty three percent. Two questions, One, what are you
Speaker 5: doing with this whole momentum trade and how far? How
Speaker 5: much further can we extend? And secondly, I look at
Speaker 5: the Micron earnings. They're going to have their best day
Speaker 5: in thirteen years and they're up to eighteen percent on
Speaker 5: AI growth, So like, can they keep going further with
Speaker 5: the fact that sales are smashing expectations?
Speaker 7: Look, I love that question because I'm working on this
Speaker 7: with the research team this week. I'm writing a note
Speaker 7: for our internal research platform with a cute title that is,
Speaker 7: do you have fomo on the momo because of Yolo?
Speaker 6: Well, that's goin.
Speaker 7: I thought about this for you. I know it's going
Speaker 7: to be on the show you're in the media game
Speaker 7: talking points. Here's the counterintuitive conclusion that we're finding momentum
Speaker 7: is working better than it's ever worked. I have data
Speaker 7: going back to early nineteen nineties, even data going back further.
Speaker 7: It's never worked that well. You can if you look
Speaker 7: back twelve sixteen months, you would Here's here's a dumb strategy. Okay,
Speaker 7: you could just rank the stocks in the S and
Speaker 7: P five hundred by trailing twelve month returns, pick the
Speaker 7: top ten, hold them for a month, repeat. Okay, if
Speaker 7: markets are efficient, finance professors will tell you this should
Speaker 7: not work well in history. It's never worked that well,
Speaker 7: so maybe not so dumb as strategy. Now, when do
Speaker 7: we get worried about momentum And that's why our conclusions
Speaker 7: are counterintuitive. We're not that worried about it, even though
Speaker 7: it's extreme, because it wasn't extreme before the last three
Speaker 7: bear markets. When momentum is in its stop quintile, the
Speaker 7: four return for stocks is an average of fourteen percent.
Speaker 7: Now there's a big there's a big caveat there, which
Speaker 7: is there's a fat tale, which is two thousand when
Speaker 7: we had the mother of all momentum crashes. But the
Speaker 7: difference between that momentum crash and the situation we're in
Speaker 7: right now is that the situation we're in right now,
Speaker 7: momentum stocks are supported by fundamentals. There's huge momentum in
Speaker 7: fundamental so quality and momentum are moving together. They're both
Speaker 7: performing well. If you do an autopsy of the two
Speaker 7: thousand bubble, it was junk stocks, non earners with momentum.
Speaker 6: Yes, that was my belly wick back in the day.
Speaker 2: And I took those companies public, but now we've got
Speaker 2: real companies, real cash flow. Sebastian, thank you so much
Speaker 2: for coming. We really appreciate you being in studio here.
Speaker 2: Sebastian Page, he said of Global Multi Asset and CIO
Speaker 2: at t Rowe Price Bran Lynch duringes she's head of
Speaker 2: mar Get Insighted Equities. In so, Brianna looks like I'm
Speaker 2: just looking at Estero Labs. It's performance yesterday, Reddit today,
Speaker 2: What do you make of this IPO market these days?
Speaker 8: I think that many of the companies that have been
Speaker 8: waiting to IPO hopefully see Asta and say, oh, okay, hey,
Speaker 8: this is a good sign. This is a good sign
Speaker 8: that the market may be right for us. Obviously, Esteria Labs,
Speaker 8: given that it's in the semiconductor space and they're catering
Speaker 8: to cloud computing and AI technologies, they're able to kind of,
Speaker 8: you know, capitalize on the investor demand there. And I
Speaker 8: think it kind of brings back to what a lot
Speaker 8: of companies will be thinking, how do I make AI
Speaker 8: a part of my story? And we've seen that with
Speaker 8: Reddit to talking about how data licensing to language learning
Speaker 8: models will be a big part of their future revenue opportunity.
Speaker 8: So certainly a very different company than is Sarah Labs,
Speaker 8: but an interesting one that I think will be a
Speaker 8: little volatile to watch today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'll help ask respective Reddit that Bailey's been reporting
Speaker 2: on about this data aspect to it and getting some
Speaker 2: kind of AI play into that story. I'm not sure
Speaker 2: I buy it. What do you think, Brian? Is that
Speaker 2: is that a reasonable pitch? Is that a reasonable reason
Speaker 2: to take a look at this company?
Speaker 6: Reddit?
Speaker 8: It's not a guaranteed revenue driver. We saw, you know,
Speaker 8: even this past week that FTC is investigating what data
Speaker 8: they actually share with these partners they have. You know,
Speaker 8: is it okay that they share that? If they were
Speaker 8: to have a cease and a system where they can
Speaker 8: no longer share this data, that would be a big
Speaker 8: problem in terms of their future growth opportunity, because you know,
Speaker 8: they've seen their AD revenue grow twenty percent, not a
Speaker 8: number that's exciting a lot of investors. The real bull
Speaker 8: case is on this data licensing opportunity. So if there's
Speaker 8: something that hinders that, you know, it makes the story
Speaker 8: a little less desirable.
Speaker 5: And Brian, this is a deal that was marketed at
Speaker 5: thirty one to thirty four bucks. Pricing it thirty four
Speaker 5: seemed like there would be some divide when I talked
Speaker 5: to venture capitalists and investors on valuation and valuation expectations.
Speaker 5: What's your read of at pricing at the top of
Speaker 5: the range.
Speaker 8: Yeah, the price at the top of the range, obviously,
Speaker 8: you know, gives some sense that there is strong investor
Speaker 8: demand for this company. We haven't seen a social media
Speaker 8: platform go public since Pinterest back in twenty nineteen, so
Speaker 8: perhaps there's some pentep demand there. But when you look
Speaker 8: at Reddit versus some of its public comps, it's a
Speaker 8: smaller player and it's not profitable, so it doesn't have
Speaker 8: you know, this perfect story for those looking to invest
Speaker 8: in the next you know, emerging social media company. And
Speaker 8: to the fact of emerging, this is a nineteen year
Speaker 8: old company. It's been around for a long time. And
Speaker 8: you know, a question with a lot of these private
Speaker 8: companies is how much growth is left because they've grown
Speaker 8: so much in the private markets.
Speaker 2: Brian, are you surprised that we haven't seen better more
Speaker 2: ipox activity over the past I don't know, six to
Speaker 2: nine to twelve months. I mean, we have stock market
Speaker 2: indexes at or near all time highs.
Speaker 6: What's the what's the problem here?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think all the macro indicators would suggest that
Speaker 8: the market has been or should have been welcoming into IPOs.
Speaker 8: But we saw with kind of the Clavio instacart ARM
Speaker 8: group that went public this fall, they had lack lost
Speaker 8: their IPOs. That being said, ARM is now trading at
Speaker 8: double its IPO price. So another one that's really you know,
Speaker 8: capitalized on this demand for the AI market, Astera Labs,
Speaker 8: I think will be a good indicator for the market.
Speaker 8: And it's more of a pure tech play than Reddit.
Speaker 8: So if I'm a private tech company considering my options,
Speaker 8: maybe my business looks more like a Stera than it
Speaker 8: looks like Reddit, and that makes me feel good about
Speaker 8: the opportunities in the market. But we're hearing from you know,
Speaker 8: the heads of Naise and Nazac that they had these
Speaker 8: deep pipelines of companies that are preparing to go public
Speaker 8: and really there's a finite period of time that they'll
Speaker 8: likely do that, you know, given the election coming up
Speaker 8: later this year, the volatility that could come with that.
Speaker 8: So I think if Reddit has decent performance, it will
Speaker 8: certainly encourage others to follow if Astera alone doesn't.
Speaker 5: Do that, Brionn, At what point do we see private
Speaker 5: equity back companies going public again? We saw bright Spring
Speaker 5: and Amor with its own kind of different flavors within
Speaker 5: investors in holdings. Are we going to see companies kind
Speaker 5: of or management teams just really ripping off the band
Speaker 5: aid and going public.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it depends on kind of you know,
Speaker 8: what the story is, and if it's something that they
Speaker 8: think will appeal to public market investors. You know, Birkenstock,
Speaker 8: you know, as a private equity back company on public
Speaker 8: last year along the same time as you know, Instacart
Speaker 8: and those others performed okay but not great, So I think,
Speaker 8: you know, similarly, those companies are sitting on the sidelines.
Speaker 8: The different diference there is that those investors have less
Speaker 8: likely held those investments for ten fifteen years and maybe
Speaker 8: have a little bit more leeway in terms of holding
Speaker 8: in the private markets versus an early stage investor who
Speaker 8: at this point is very eager to sell that investment
Speaker 8: and return capital to LPs and invest in new things.
Speaker 8: So the pressure dynamic there for liquidity is a little different.
Speaker 6: Briann.
Speaker 2: I'm looking through your notes here today. One data point
Speaker 2: you provide it really jumped out at me. The percentage
Speaker 2: of public companies has dropped thirty five percent since the
Speaker 2: mid nineteen eighties when I got my start, while the
Speaker 2: percentage of private companies has jumped by forty three percent
Speaker 2: over the time period.
Speaker 6: Same time period.
Speaker 2: Wow, So, I mean that just shows you kind of
Speaker 2: how the capital markets have changed. I can stay private longer,
Speaker 2: I guess than maybe trying to get the public markets.
Speaker 6: So is anything they're going to change, do you think?
Speaker 8: I think that's a dynamic that's not going to change
Speaker 8: anytime soon. There's just an abundance of capital available in
Speaker 8: the private markets, more so than ever before. I think
Speaker 8: the companies that will feel the pressure to go public
Speaker 8: are these late stage companies that have already raised a
Speaker 8: ton of venture capital. They have a lot of pressure
Speaker 8: from those early investors and shareholders for liquidity. Those aren't
Speaker 8: likely going to be the ones to go public in
Speaker 8: the near future. But to your point, if I'm a
Speaker 8: three four five year old private company who can raise
Speaker 8: plenty of capital at the earlier stages in the private markets,
Speaker 8: I don't have to, you know, disclose on my financials.
Speaker 8: I have a little bit more privacy, almost like as
Speaker 8: I'm growing through the space, I don't have the daily
Speaker 8: mark to marks. That for a lot of companies sounds
Speaker 8: like a better position to be in. So I think
Speaker 8: companies will continue to stay private in those early mid
Speaker 8: years and look to go public later in their life
Speaker 8: cycles than they did ten fifteen years ago.
Speaker 5: What's your what are your expectations for deal flow and
Speaker 5: IPO volumes in twenty twenty four, because when I talk
Speaker 5: to bankers, it still feels like the year twenty twenty
Speaker 5: five keeps coming up.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that a lot rides on these early
Speaker 8: IPOs and how well they do. They're certainly lentsy of
Speaker 8: companies who want to ipo or are feeling the pressure
Speaker 8: to ipo, but they are a little nervous to rip
Speaker 8: off the band aid. Last year's IPOs didn't really, you know,
Speaker 8: give them the boost of confidence that they needed to
Speaker 8: do that. So I don't think we were certainly not
Speaker 8: going to see a twenty twenty twenty twenty one year,
Speaker 8: but maybe we see a more normal IPO year than
Speaker 8: we did last year. You know, when you look at
Speaker 8: this year, already, proceeds are up one hundred and sixty
Speaker 8: nine percent versus last year deal counts up fifteen percent,
Speaker 8: So the spigott, I guess, is widening a bit. There's
Speaker 8: more flow happening, so I think, you know, having a
Speaker 8: normal year versus a blockbuster year or an extremely quiet
Speaker 8: year is probably the right thing for the market now.
Speaker 2: Brian, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate
Speaker 2: getting your comments and your insights. They're prea and lynched.
Speaker 2: All right, your daily look at the front pages around
Speaker 2: the world. List me tell you what do you see
Speaker 2: in the newspapers this morning that got your attention?
Speaker 1: All right, We're starting with the New York Times. They're
Speaker 1: saying New York City schools they're dealing with a spike
Speaker 1: in problems from kids. They're not behaving that well. A
Speaker 1: lot of the issues are those lower level dissurbances. Educators
Speaker 1: are saying, though, students are still having a hard time
Speaker 1: emotionally after the pandemic, so that's what they're relating it to.
Speaker 1: They're saying kids are having trouble talking things out, so
Speaker 1: now they're hitting, they're fighting, so you have those kind
Speaker 1: of issues. They have issued from the police department. It
Speaker 1: says last school year there were more than fourteen thousand
Speaker 1: school safety incidents. But if you compare that to twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen twenty nineteen before the pandemic, there were just over
Speaker 1: eleven thousand. So they're saying kids are getting frustrated, they
Speaker 1: don't know how to deal with their emotions because that's
Speaker 1: what the pandemic turned them towards. So that's the issue.
Speaker 6: Because that's a year and a half of homeschooling and
Speaker 6: all that remote learning and frustration.
Speaker 1: I guess maybe you.
Speaker 6: Can't pay these teachers enough, is my simple takeaway.
Speaker 1: I know it's tough, and especially as a parent of myself,
Speaker 1: like knowing when the kids came home what these teachers
Speaker 1: have to deal with because the parents were turned into
Speaker 1: teachers in a way at that point. Too.
Speaker 6: Goodness behind us. Okay, what else we got?
Speaker 1: So we're talking about couples meeting on Discord, not the
Speaker 1: average dating This is not a dating app. This is Discord. Okay,
Speaker 1: So what Discord is? It draws in about two hundred
Speaker 1: million monthly users. But it's an online community. So it's
Speaker 1: like people with hobbies. They share similar interests, so they
Speaker 1: go on and they form these groups. It could be
Speaker 1: anything like astronomy, fans, you know, fantasy football fans, anything
Speaker 1: like that. So instead of you know, using the apps
Speaker 1: that's swipeping, No, they're going on here. They're going into
Speaker 1: these groups and in those groups, that's where they're fine
Speaker 1: their ma their love interests. So it's kind of like
Speaker 1: thinking about the modern version, you know how like we
Speaker 1: used to go to the bargle wherever meet people and people,
Speaker 1: but instead of going into the bar, going into these
Speaker 1: online communities, and that's how they're starting to meet people.
Speaker 6: So I've never heard of discord. I have to admit,
Speaker 6: it's kind of like a competitor to Reddit.
Speaker 5: It was one of the things that the youth were
Speaker 5: hanging out in during the pandemic. I think the fascinating
Speaker 5: thing on the story though long distance relationship between Stuttgard,
Speaker 5: Germany and Birmingham Alibim.
Speaker 1: Was they're doing it via video conferencing, and that couple
Speaker 1: actually they met each other's parents, but they travel together.
Speaker 1: They still live apart. They're trying to make it work,
Speaker 1: but I don't know. I mean, you're getting married pretty soon.
Speaker 6: Bailand married soon.
Speaker 5: Fashioned.
Speaker 1: Well, some of those are leading to engagements, which it
Speaker 1: needs to us. From my next story, this is about
Speaker 1: the owner of Zales, you know, Jared Jewelers signat Jewelers
Speaker 1: saying that sub couples are waiting to get engaged this year.
Speaker 1: That's because of what we've been talking about, you know,
Speaker 1: inflation and certain labor market. It's pushing there to you
Speaker 1: know say yes, dates back a little bit, which is
Speaker 1: a turnaround for the company because they were saying that
Speaker 1: engagements would rise this year, but now they're kind of
Speaker 1: doing a little bout face. They're saying, well, actually no,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna happen.
Speaker 6: So still the engage ring that hasn't changed, right, that
Speaker 6: still hasn't changed.
Speaker 1: It's just how many people are going to buy them
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 6: So sales is big, right, I mean I think there
Speaker 6: were like one.
Speaker 1: Of Sales and K Jewelers too, that's their other that's
Speaker 1: their other one.
Speaker 6: So they own own all of that.
Speaker 1: K Jewelers and Zales.
Speaker 6: Yes, that's significent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, But the number of engagements, it's recovering. They had
Speaker 1: this like dry dating spell during the pandemic. A lot
Speaker 1: of people went through that. But two point one million
Speaker 1: couples became engaged last year. But it's still the lowest
Speaker 1: in the number of years really we'll see.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I got engaged during the pandemic.
Speaker 6: But you got engaged during the pandemic. You got engaged
Speaker 6: during the during the pandemic.
Speaker 5: September twenty twenty two.
Speaker 6: I think, okay, that's kind of the end of the day.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I guess, yeah, life was kind of normal. I
Speaker 5: forget what when we timestamp these things.
Speaker 6: I just think, you know, I just for me. It
Speaker 6: was when she got the vaccination done. Move on.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: They made me come back to work on ride the
Speaker 2: subway every day, so I figured that that's got to
Speaker 2: be the end.
Speaker 6: That's that's an indication, right, yeah, yeah, all right, what's
Speaker 6: what's a crookie?
Speaker 1: So a crookie? You remember the crow nut?
Speaker 6: It was like the fig the Big Faith in New York.
Speaker 6: No one could get them.
Speaker 1: You waited on these lines forever. They sold out. So
Speaker 1: now you have the crookie. It's this new pastry from France.
Speaker 1: It was from Paris. It's a mash up between a
Speaker 1: croissant and a cookie. So some have the cookie in
Speaker 1: the croissant, some have the cookie, you know, surrounding the croissant.
Speaker 1: It's all these kind of different ways. But there's a
Speaker 1: place in the city. They have Janey's Life Changing bake Goods. Okay,
Speaker 1: they have three locations. They sell for seven dollars and
Speaker 1: fifty cents each, so it's a big place. But they're
Speaker 1: selling out within hours. I mean at this place they own,
Speaker 1: they're only offered on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays. That's it.
Speaker 1: So people line up, they can't get them. There's another
Speaker 1: place set a Pawnees.
Speaker 6: That's another place.
Speaker 1: Where you can get these, But it's just the hot
Speaker 1: new craze. I guess people are.
Speaker 6: Bored and they just want something different. I don't know.
Speaker 5: We were in the city in the East Village over
Speaker 5: the weekend for a friend's birthday, doing a pizza tour,
Speaker 5: and I was the amount of places you walk by
Speaker 5: where you're just like, only in Manhattan would people wait
Speaker 5: in line for forty five minutes to buy a nine
Speaker 5: dollars coffee.
Speaker 6: I don't know. I'm not yeah, I don't know it.
Speaker 1: I guess it's just to post a picture on Instagram.
Speaker 6: I don't know. And again, where did you get the story?
Speaker 1: This was the New York Yeah, yeah, good stuff.
Speaker 6: Lise Miteya, thank you so much. We appreciated here.
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Speaker 1: Mm hmm