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Speaker 1: Hi, it's West Kasova.

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Speaker 2: Today we have another edition of our new special report,

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Speaker 2: hosted by my colleague Salaia Mosen, Bloomberg's senior Washington correspondent.

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Speaker 2: Each week, Sleia will bring you original reporting and insights

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Speaker 2: on the most important people, issues, and ideas that will

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Speaker 2: shape the twenty twenty four US election and how they'll

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Speaker 2: impact policy, politics, and power, not just in the US

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Speaker 2: but around the world. Watch this space for a new

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Speaker 2: installment each week. Thanks so much for listening, and here's Soleia.

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Speaker 3: Tonight is the third Republican presidential debate. The race has

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Speaker 3: seen some changes.

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Speaker 1: Former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the twenty.

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Speaker 3: Twenty four presidential race over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Nicky Haley's the one who's got a little momentum right.

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Speaker 3: Now with all the maneuvering of who's in and who's

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Speaker 3: out of the race. Here's something you probably will not

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Speaker 3: hear from a certain governor.

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Speaker 1: I am going to run, I'm going to get back

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Speaker 1: in the race. I'm going to decide to run for president.

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Speaker 3: That's New Hampshire's Republican Governor Chris Snunu. And yes he's joking.

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Speaker 1: It sounds fitting for this year. Where nothing seems to

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Speaker 1: make a whole lot of sense.

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Speaker 3: The joke reveals a quiet tension within the Republican primary contest,

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Speaker 3: alonging among some Republicans and Independents for a front runner

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Speaker 3: who isn't former President Donald Trump. Governor Snu shares this longing,

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Speaker 3: but so far he hasn't revealed which candidate will have

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Speaker 3: his support. He's hoping that tonight's debate will help him decide.

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Speaker 1: I think the third debate is the biggest debate of

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Speaker 1: all of them. They're going to have effectively twice as

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Speaker 1: much airtime as they had in the first debate, right

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Speaker 1: just because there's probably about half as many actual people there.

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Speaker 1: You're hopefully showing that you're not a flash in the pan.

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Speaker 3: And who Sanunu endorses matters because as a popular, well

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Speaker 3: respected Republican governor, voters and the media will be paying

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Speaker 3: attention to his cho This debate will have fewer candidates

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Speaker 3: on stage, meaning each will get more airtime. It's a

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Speaker 3: crucial moment for them to stand out ahead of the

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Speaker 3: Iowa caucus. In January, ahead of the debate, Sununu shared

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Speaker 3: what he'll be watching for. He also told me his

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Speaker 3: thoughts on Trump and what he thinks of Nicky Haley

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Speaker 3: and Ronda Santis. Both are seen as leading challengers to Trump.

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Speaker 3: I'm Senior Washington correspondent Seleiah Mosen. This is the big

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Speaker 3: take from Bloomberg News. Five candidates will participate in tonight's debate.

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Speaker 3: Former Ambassador Nicki Haley, Florida Governor Ron De Santis, and

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Speaker 3: former New Jersey Governor Chris Christy. Senator Tim Scott, and

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Speaker 3: Vivek Ramaswami. One key person who will be missing from

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Speaker 3: the stage. Trump He's skipped all of the debates so far.

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Speaker 3: Still he's the front runner. The latest Iowa poll has

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Speaker 3: him at about forty six percent among Republican primary voters.

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Speaker 3: National polls measuring him against others buying to be on

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Speaker 3: the GOP ticket have him around fifty five percent on average.

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Speaker 3: But for Sununu, Trump is just not the person his

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Speaker 3: party needs right now.

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Speaker 1: Trump has created this kind of cult, not based on

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Speaker 1: anything other than just, you know, his ability to disrupt.

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Speaker 1: And don't get me wrong, a lot of us were

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Speaker 1: looking for a disruptor and I supported him very strongly

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Speaker 1: in sixteen and twenty, and you know that's what we're

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Speaker 1: looking for. It just didn't get enough done for our liking.

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Speaker 3: Sununu pointed out that he's not alone in his disillusionment.

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Speaker 1: Put it this way, Trump can barely even hold on

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Speaker 1: to fifty percent of the most hardcore based voters in

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Speaker 1: these polls people say, always pulling at fifty two percent,

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Speaker 1: that's actually terrible, right for a former sitting president that's

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Speaker 1: only pulling at fifty two percent, and someone who should

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Speaker 1: be the standard and flag bearer and the FATA complete

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Speaker 1: if you will.

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Speaker 3: Even though fifty two percent could be more than enough

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Speaker 3: to win, Republicans have been underperforming in elections for several

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Speaker 3: years now, and Sununu doesn't think that that slide is over.

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Speaker 1: The Republicans could be in real trouble in twenty four.

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Speaker 1: We lost in twenty two, right, this type of it

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Speaker 1: wasn't even disjointed. It was just more of bad candidates

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Speaker 1: with an extreme Trump driven type message lost us a

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Speaker 1: lot of races we should have won in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: We don't seem to have learned from that, right, And

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Speaker 1: in fact, if anything, out of DC has gotten worse.

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Speaker 3: So far, he hasn't said who he's going to endorse,

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Speaker 3: but there is one person who he seems to have

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Speaker 3: his eye on more than others. Nikki Hayley. She's been

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Speaker 3: getting a lot of attention from donors recently too, and

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Speaker 3: when Sununu was out on the trail with her recently,

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Speaker 3: he said he was getting closer every day to endorsing her,

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Speaker 3: but in our interview he just wouldn't go there.

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Speaker 1: Look, I don't know who I'm going to endorse right now.

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Speaker 1: As soon as I know, you'll know. I mean, really,

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Speaker 1: I'm not very good about being coy, So as soon

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Speaker 1: as I figure out who I want to get behind,

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Speaker 1: I'll get behind him a lot. But I've met with

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Speaker 1: all the candidates. I've been on the road with every

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Speaker 1: single one of them, I've done events with all of them.

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Speaker 3: For the most part, like I mentioned, Sununu has a

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Speaker 3: lot going for him that makes his endorsement interesting. His

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Speaker 3: reputation as a fiscally responsible governor, his popularity in his

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Speaker 3: home state, and frankly, his political pedigree. His dad was

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Speaker 3: chief of staff to President George H. W. Bush and

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Speaker 3: a governor before that, and his brother he served in Congress.

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Speaker 3: He has a lot to say about the Republican Party

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Speaker 3: and who should lead it, and he seems to be

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Speaker 3: looking for a candidate who isn't terribly different from himself.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I like governors. I like governors because there's accountability,

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Speaker 1: a sense of true leadership. They really CEOs, not just

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Speaker 1: policy people. They're really executives, and that's exactly what we

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Speaker 1: want in there.

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Speaker 3: There's no shortage of governors running. Doug Burgham, Chris Christi,

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Speaker 3: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Asa Hutchinson. All of them

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Speaker 3: are current or former governors. Then there's Vivigue Ramaswami. He's

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Speaker 3: a former CEO of a small pharmaceutical company. All of

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Speaker 3: them were on the debate stages for the first two primaries.

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Speaker 3: Based on those two nights, here's what Snunu thinks we're

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Speaker 3: going to see tonight.

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Speaker 1: What you're likely going to see is DeSantis keep hitting

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Speaker 1: Nicki Haley on a variety of things. Nikki has to

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Speaker 1: show that she's and she did it in the second debate.

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Speaker 1: I think very well that she isn't just kind of

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Speaker 1: that flash of fire, that she really has that grip,

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Speaker 1: that staying power. She can give it as well as

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Speaker 1: she can get it. Folks like Tim Scott, you know,

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Speaker 1: they got to show something here. They're going to have

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Speaker 1: a lot of potential airtime to do it. But they

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Speaker 1: got to show something, and they got to come with

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Speaker 1: not just some fire, but they got to come with

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Speaker 1: something that kind of gets that second and third question.

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Speaker 3: Everyone on the stage tonight will be looking for their

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Speaker 3: viral SoundBite, you know, that moment to show something. As

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Speaker 3: Sununu put up, he has this advice for the candidates.

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Speaker 1: Earn your airtime. If you get airtime in a debate

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Speaker 1: because you're just shouting over everybody, that don't work. But

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Speaker 1: if you get the airtime in a debate because you're interesting,

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Speaker 1: you're charismatic, you're making some funny quips or whatever it is,

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Speaker 1: show some personality so they keep coming back to you

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Speaker 1: because the moderators want to keep kind of coming to

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Speaker 1: you on that. That's how you earn quality airtime. They

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Speaker 1: just have to really get people excited and hopeful and

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Speaker 1: optimistic and inspired. Right, the Republican Party needs to inspire

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Speaker 1: somebody inspire their voters, I should say. And that can

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Speaker 1: just not just be reiterating the same old policy point

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Speaker 1: like it's boring, right, show some grit Nikki's done that

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Speaker 1: pretty darn well. Desantas has held his own very very strongly.

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Speaker 1: Those are obviously the top two contenders, So I think

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Speaker 1: youre going to see those two go after it pretty good.

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Speaker 3: Sounds simple enough, but can one of those candidates overcome Trump.

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Speaker 1: As long as it gets down to a one on

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Speaker 1: one race before Super Tuesday it's now a one on

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Speaker 1: one race with a former president that can barely hold

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Speaker 1: fifty percent. Now it becomes exciting. Now it becomes interesting.

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Speaker 3: After the break, we'll get to where some and new

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Speaker 3: things the party goes next.

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Speaker 1: Not worried about the next election. I'm worried about the

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Speaker 1: next ten.

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Speaker 3: We're back with New Hampshire's Governor Chris Sinanu. I called

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Speaker 3: him to talk about this third Republican presidential debate. If

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Speaker 3: you've turned on the news recently, you know that the

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Speaker 3: Republican Party is going through something.

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Speaker 1: We have to interrupt this for one moment to cover

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Speaker 1: the complete and utter clown car that is the House

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Speaker 1: Republican Speakers race back in Washington, d C. Let's call

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Speaker 1: it chaos in Congress right now, it just looks like

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Speaker 1: they don't want to govern.

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Speaker 3: Governors, I'd love to hear from you how you would

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Speaker 3: describe the current state of the Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: That should be a very easy thing to answer, but

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Speaker 1: it's not. It's not very easy. So when it comes

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Speaker 1: to I would say party leadership. When it comes to

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Speaker 1: the party as you see it on national television, the representatives,

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Speaker 1: what's happening both on the presidential race or what's happening

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Speaker 1: in DC, it looks a lot more disjointed than it

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Speaker 1: really is. When it comes to the average Republican registered

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Speaker 1: voter of the Republican Party, most of them have the

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Speaker 1: same message. They don't like the divisiveness. They don't like

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Speaker 1: the fact that we're fractured when you're solidified in terms

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Speaker 1: of branding, when you agree that, hey, we're not going

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Speaker 1: to agree on everything, but you know, the eighty percent

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Speaker 1: of core values of fiscal discipline and local control and

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Speaker 1: limited government, you know, those are the things that we

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Speaker 1: can really, you know, use to our advantage to kind

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Speaker 1: of give people confidence in terms of joining the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party for an election that's not happening right now now.

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Speaker 1: I think there's actually still time. Poll numbers are moving

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Speaker 1: for some of these other candidates. That doesn't mean we're

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Speaker 1: more divided. It just means we are going through our

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Speaker 1: process of finding our candidate.

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Speaker 3: Things can change pretty quickly. I asked the governor about

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Speaker 3: the party's recent leadership changes. When you think back to

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Speaker 3: Senator Mitt Romney, he was the standard bearer for the

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Speaker 3: Republican Party in twenty twelve up until Trump's emergence in

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Speaker 3: twenty fifteen. And I know Democrats now just love Romney.

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Speaker 3: They didn't at the time. But what's the story that

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Speaker 3: you would tell to explain how their Republican par already

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Speaker 3: got from Romney to Trump to where it is today.

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Speaker 1: Well, the story is this, Republicans in Washington stopped becoming

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Speaker 1: effective and Republicans in governorship started leading the nation. And

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Speaker 1: I'm not just saying that as a Republican governor, but

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at the pandemic. There was a fundamental

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Speaker 1: change in how folks viewed government when we came through it.

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Speaker 1: They looked to what happened state to state because states

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Speaker 1: were given a lot of flexibility. To Trump's credit, by

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Speaker 1: the way, he gave states a lot of flexibility to

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Speaker 1: design their own path with Cares Act funds and policies

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Speaker 1: and all that sort of thing.

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Speaker 3: But as for bringing voters to the Republican side this election,

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Speaker 3: there's one issue that seems to be demanding a lot

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Speaker 3: of attention. We know from polling that the economy is

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Speaker 3: a top issue for swing state voters. Home mortgage rates

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Speaker 3: are at the highest levels of nearly two decades, and

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Speaker 3: consumer confidence remains low since inflation continues to eat away

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Speaker 3: at household budgets. In short, voters aren't happy. So I

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Speaker 3: asked Sinunu how he expects that to show up as

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Speaker 3: people cast ballots. How do you think that the current

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Speaker 3: state of the economy will play in the elections.

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Speaker 1: It's a great question, and the answer is not nearly

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Speaker 1: as much as anybody thinks. The economy was a much

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Speaker 1: more of a drastic issue, inflation, cost of living, all

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Speaker 1: of that sort of thing as you kind of ran

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Speaker 1: into the twenty two elections, which is why there should

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Speaker 1: have been a big red wave of candidates and opportunity

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Speaker 1: for Republicans to say, look, we know the economy, we

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Speaker 1: know how to manage it didn't pan out. It didn't

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Speaker 1: pan out at all. So it'll still be a top issue,

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Speaker 1: but it's actually not a top issue in driving a vote,

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Speaker 1: which is a very different thing. And this is where

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Speaker 1: polling has become a little bit antiquated. Polling isn't moving

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Speaker 1: to be sophisticated enough to understand that what drives people's

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Speaker 1: concerns doesn't always drive their vote. The most important issue

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Speaker 1: that people will vote on is likability, and that's it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's really the biggest driver. Do I like

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Speaker 1: and trust this individual enough to start bringing this country

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Speaker 1: together to get stuff done? And that's where people keep

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Speaker 1: missing out. If you're not likable, I don't care how

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Speaker 1: good your policy issues are. If people don't like you,

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Speaker 1: they don't think you're going to give one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty percent of the job. You're not showing a little

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Speaker 1: positivity and inspiration in something so that if you will

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Speaker 1: Trump's I hate the term, but Trump's even some of

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Speaker 1: the severe economic issues that people are facing, It's not

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Speaker 1: like it was before. Likability means a lot.

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Speaker 3: Sanunu hopes that the person that voters like can go

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Speaker 3: the distance.

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Speaker 1: Now, when you say where do we go from here,

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Speaker 1: I'll think longer term, right out to twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: and twenty eight. As a party, we got to kind

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Speaker 1: of get past this election one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: Either we get past it with a new candidate that

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Speaker 1: brings us together, galvanizes us and I think really creates

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Speaker 1: a huge opportunity and a huge runway immediately as they

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Speaker 1: hit the ground in January twenty five. If we're stuck

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Speaker 1: with Trump and Trump gets the nomination, he will lose.

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Speaker 1: And then again, we're kind of in a rebuilding phase

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Speaker 1: and it's going to be messing. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: a very messy, hard, long slog. So that's how we lose.

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Speaker 1: By sticking with Trump is exactly how we lose. One

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Speaker 1: way or another. We're going to kind of have to

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Speaker 1: pick up the pieces. It's a lot easier if we

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Speaker 1: move on with another candidate. Now then have to kind

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Speaker 1: of scramble and have infighting and all that for a

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Speaker 1: couple of years. So we got to find a winner.

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Speaker 3: As for Governor Christinanu, he said this term is his last,

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Speaker 3: and even though there once was a lot of talk

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Speaker 3: about him running for president someday, right now he says

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Speaker 3: he's not interested in working in the federal government.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, now I'm not going to DC.

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Speaker 3: I can't help but say a lot of people have

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Speaker 3: said this and still end up in Washington. As for

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Speaker 3: the folks who are trying to make their way to

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Speaker 3: the White House, Tonight's debate matters, and so does what

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Speaker 3: comes after it.

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Speaker 1: There's still a lot to be played out here, and

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Speaker 1: one thing I have learned is that political momentum is

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Speaker 1: a real thing and both a positive and a negative direction.

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Speaker 1: If you start falling apart, it's really hard to start

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Speaker 1: turning things around. When you start gaining momentum at the

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Speaker 1: right time and everything's clicking, you can get a lot

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Speaker 1: of movement, and some of the candidates have already shown that,

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Speaker 1: and then you just have the natural attenuation of some

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Speaker 1: of the existing candidates. So huge opportunity for those other

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Speaker 1: candidates to define themselves and define the Republican Party moving forward.

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Speaker 1: But they have to narrow themselves down to get people excited.

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Speaker 3: Considering everything we've talked about, I'm curious, where do you

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Speaker 3: think the Republican Party goes from here?

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Speaker 1: Oh? Boy, I guess we'll find out in a couple

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Speaker 1: of months. Right.

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Speaker 3: The third Debate airs tonight on NBC at eight pm Eastern.

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Speaker 3: You can find our coverage on Bloomberg dot com. Thanks

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Speaker 3: for listening to the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm

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Speaker 3: Sleiah Mosen. This episode was produced by Anamazarakis, Naomi Shaven,

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Speaker 3: and Julia Press. It's part of a special series from

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Speaker 3: our DC newsroom. Blake Maples is our mix engineer. Our

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Speaker 3: story editors are Mike Shephard, Wendy Benjaminson and Caitlin Kenny.

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Speaker 3: Sage Bauman is our executive producer and head of Podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for tuning in. I'll be back next week.