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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest. Christina Hooper joins us. She

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Speaker 1: is chief Global market strategist at Investco Advisors, joining from Greenwich, Connecticut.

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Speaker 1: Happy New Year, Christina, thanks for being with us, Happy

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Speaker 1: New Year. Thank you so much for having me. Are

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Speaker 1: you in the camp that we are going to avoid

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Speaker 1: recession this year? Because I was looking at some notes earlier,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of an interesting call. A couple of the

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Speaker 1: big firms on Wall Street, so JP, Morgan, black Rock,

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Speaker 1: they say, yes, we'll have a recession this year, Goldman, Morgan,

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Speaker 1: Stanley not so sure. They see no recession. What's your view, Well,

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Speaker 1: I actually believe that we're likely to see either a

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Speaker 1: pretty significant downturn or a very mild recession, and it's

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Speaker 1: likely to be relatively brief. So somewhere in between those

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Speaker 1: two camps, I think is is very likely where we

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Speaker 1: will end up. Again. This is a situation that is

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Speaker 1: evolving day by day, and it is incredibly dependent upon

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Speaker 1: the FED and exactly what it does. But based on

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Speaker 1: the numbers we're seeing in terms of inflation data, I

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Speaker 1: would expect the FED to hit the pause button um

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Speaker 1: likely by the end of the first quarter of three

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Speaker 1: and I think that should put the U. S economy

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Speaker 1: in a place where there's not that much damage that's

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Speaker 1: been done. Um, there's an enormous amount of resilience and

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Speaker 1: some real areas of strength for the U. S economy. Um. So,

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Speaker 1: the downturn is is unlikely to be severe, Christina, Okay,

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Speaker 1: to be that as it may. But do you think

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Speaker 1: it would be strong enough for a bad enough recession

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Speaker 1: to perhaps alter the structure of the U. S economy

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Speaker 1: as many people suggest the next recession ought to given

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Speaker 1: that it's been propped up by monetary policy for so long.

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Speaker 1: And you know, if so, how does that evolve? Well?

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Speaker 1: I would make the argument that monetary policy has actually

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Speaker 1: had a bigger impact on markets than it has had

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Speaker 1: on the main street economy. Um uh. Now, having said that,

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Speaker 1: do I expect some significant impact on markets? Yes, so

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Speaker 1: we've seen that in the past year, and I think

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Speaker 1: we'll continue to see that. Um. In terms of the economy,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to have as much of

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Speaker 1: an impact. I'm not a strict monitorist. So if you

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Speaker 1: look at the Nasdaq one for all of the worst

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Speaker 1: performing of the major US indices down, are you concerned

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Speaker 1: about investor sentiment right now, have people become more those

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Speaker 1: who play the market or in putting capital to work

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Speaker 1: in markets? A little shell shocked? Oh? Absolutely, investor sentiment

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Speaker 1: as negative, But we can look at that as a

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Speaker 1: positive um. Right, because as we see investor sentiment get

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Speaker 1: more negative, opportunities become more abundant. Uh. And so we're

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Speaker 1: moving into after an admittedly terror two and I think

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Speaker 1: opportunities UM will be presenting themselves as as the year unfold,

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Speaker 1: and quite frankly, when we get to the point where

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Speaker 1: the FED hits the pause button and other central banks

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Speaker 1: are getting closer to that UM, I think that's when

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Speaker 1: we could start to see UM some some traction, some

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Speaker 1: positive traction. UM. And while I would expect earnings to

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Speaker 1: be downwardly adjusted, that will present a headwind, but it

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Speaker 1: will be countered quite adequately by the tailwind of the

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Speaker 1: central bank pause. Okay, so where does that leave emerging markets?

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Speaker 1: Because you ask rather key question in all this how

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Speaker 1: much e M exposure should one have and wear well.

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Speaker 1: Emerging markets, in my opinion, will be beneficiaries in now,

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Speaker 1: not at the onset of three, but as the year evolves. UM.

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Speaker 1: The dollar has clearly peaked, uh, and is weakening. UM.

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Speaker 1: Beyond that, though, what we've seen is a number of

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Speaker 1: emerging markets economies UM that were UM faster, UM swifter

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Speaker 1: UM to combat inflation, so their central banks acted more quickly. UM.

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Speaker 1: They're they're not seeing the kind of of dramatic tightening.

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Speaker 1: And I'm making a gross generalization, but they're not seeing

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Speaker 1: in general the kind of of tightening that a lot

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Speaker 1: of major Western central banks have seen. And of course, UM,

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Speaker 1: they're looking forward to the potential for greater growth later

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Speaker 1: this year. Let's let's focus in on em Asia UM.

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Speaker 1: China I believe will be a very powerful positive force

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Speaker 1: UM later this year. UM. Now, of course, there are

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Speaker 1: headwinds right now because of COVID reopenings. UM. This is

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Speaker 1: a necessary effect of ripping off the band aid. But

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Speaker 1: I think it certainly clears the way for some real

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Speaker 1: strong growth later this year and perhaps suh, some alleviation

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Speaker 1: in terms of the stress that's been building along supply chains. Christina,

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Speaker 1: it's always a pleasure. Happy New year once again. Christina

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Speaker 1: Hooper is a chief Global market Strategist at Investco Advisors.