WEBVTT - Former EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton Talks Iran War

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

0:00:07.800 --> 0:00:09.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, let's bring you more now on the conflict in

0:00:09.440 --> 0:00:11.640
<v Speaker 2>the Middle East, with the attacks now and their seventh

0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:14.160
<v Speaker 2>day around stepping up strikes as we were hearing on

0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:16.360
<v Speaker 2>countries across the Gulf, with the number of alerts in

0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:19.400
<v Speaker 2>the region being reported this morning. Let's discuss now with

0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:22.000
<v Speaker 2>Kathy Ashton, who is the EU's first High Representative and

0:00:22.079 --> 0:00:24.840
<v Speaker 2>Foreign Affairs from twenty nine to twenty fourteen and a

0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:28.120
<v Speaker 2>key negotiator of the previous Around nuclear deal known as

0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.880
<v Speaker 2>the JCPOA. Kathy Ashen, Good morning, Welcome to Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.280
<v Speaker 2>What is your reading of the situation in the Middle

0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:38.320
<v Speaker 2>East today? Do you see any path to de escalation

0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:39.400
<v Speaker 2>from where we are now?

0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:42.280
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think there are a couple of things. First

0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:45.800
<v Speaker 3>of all, it's important that we try and find out

0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:50.320
<v Speaker 3>what exactly President Trump's ambition is for how this will end,

0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:54.400
<v Speaker 3>because on the one hand, there's a degrading of Iran's

0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:58.280
<v Speaker 3>potential nuclear program and of course the removal of ballistic

0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:02.080
<v Speaker 3>missiles and launches and so on, preventing around from playing

0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.119
<v Speaker 3>any significant role in the region or with its proxies.

0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:08.640
<v Speaker 3>And on the other hand, you have the prospect of

0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:12.800
<v Speaker 3>some kind of regime change, which is a much longer process,

0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:16.360
<v Speaker 3>as we know from other countries and other experiences, and

0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:19.320
<v Speaker 3>where you're trying to look for people who can lead

0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.759
<v Speaker 3>the country in a different direction, and that so far

0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:26.720
<v Speaker 3>has proved i think, quite elusive for President Trump, despite

0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.039
<v Speaker 3>him saying he wants to be involved in choosing that person,

0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:33.000
<v Speaker 3>despite them talking about a variety of different people, some

0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.520
<v Speaker 3>of whom have been killed, some of whom don't seem

0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:38.920
<v Speaker 3>to be appearing on the horizon. So there is a

0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:42.160
<v Speaker 3>sort of bigger question about what is the objective when

0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:44.440
<v Speaker 3>it comes to Iran. And then of course there is

0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.080
<v Speaker 3>a question of what Tehran is trying to do by

0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.560
<v Speaker 3>sending missiles all over the Gulf. Is it about trying

0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:54.520
<v Speaker 3>to send warning signals, is it specifically about targeting US

0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:58.080
<v Speaker 3>military facilities, or as we've seen, is it broader And

0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.160
<v Speaker 3>are they trying to say to countries, You've got to

0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:02.680
<v Speaker 3>tell the Americans and Israelis to cut back on this

0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:04.240
<v Speaker 3>because for your own safety.

0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Well, what should we make of the potential successes to

0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:09.160
<v Speaker 1>the late Ayatollah? Trump says that his second oldest son

0:02:09.600 --> 0:02:10.520
<v Speaker 1>is unacceptable.

0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:13.799
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's right, and this is what it gets kind

0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.440
<v Speaker 3>of interesting, if I can use that word in terms

0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:18.959
<v Speaker 3>of what the Americans want to achieve. There's been a

0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:21.679
<v Speaker 3>number of names sort of being thrown around. Ali Lara

0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:25.080
<v Speaker 3>johanis one, the Ayatollah's second son is as you say another.

0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.320
<v Speaker 3>If these are unacceptable people, well where are the acceptable

0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:31.320
<v Speaker 3>people that the problem in Iran has been? I think

0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:34.880
<v Speaker 3>that we don't see the level of organized opposition that

0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.600
<v Speaker 3>you would see perhaps in other countries. And that's because

0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.800
<v Speaker 3>they've been oppressed. It's not because people don't oppose the regime.

0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:43.560
<v Speaker 3>It's because when they do, we see these massacres, we

0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:47.880
<v Speaker 3>see people in prison and so on. So very simplistically,

0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.560
<v Speaker 3>if the IRGC wanted to surrender, who would they surrender to?

0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:57.440
<v Speaker 2>Where does this with your experience in negotiating with the

0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.760
<v Speaker 2>Uranians in the past as well? Is there any path

0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:03.120
<v Speaker 2>from here that can lead back to diplomacy on the

0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:06.160
<v Speaker 2>nuclear issue? Or is the US was this US action

0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:09.720
<v Speaker 2>inevitable to try and bring an end to any prospective

0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:11.280
<v Speaker 2>nuclear programming Iran?

0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:14.919
<v Speaker 3>Well, this is the chosen method, if you like. When

0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.400
<v Speaker 3>we had the JCP away, we were confident that he

0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:21.360
<v Speaker 3>Ran could not build a nuclear weapon. Within at least

0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.600
<v Speaker 3>twelve months of US engaging with him. In other words,

0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:26.520
<v Speaker 3>that we would have at least a twelve month window

0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:29.480
<v Speaker 3>in which we could take military action, we could put

0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:32.960
<v Speaker 3>pressure on them, and so on. We had thousands of cameras,

0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:36.560
<v Speaker 3>hundreds of monitors on site who could see exactly what

0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:40.080
<v Speaker 3>was going on. That gave a certainty and a security.

0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:42.920
<v Speaker 3>We hoped to the world that we knew what was

0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:46.720
<v Speaker 3>happening there. President Trump did not agree with that approach,

0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.240
<v Speaker 3>and he has always taken the view that this was

0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.600
<v Speaker 3>about a kind of wind loose, that the Iranians had

0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:55.640
<v Speaker 3>to give up everything completely in order to achieve what

0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.800
<v Speaker 3>he wanted. So it's hard to see how we get back.

0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.760
<v Speaker 3>Excuse me to diploma, see in the traditional sense, having

0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:06.320
<v Speaker 3>said that all conflicts end with people sitting around a table,

0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:09.200
<v Speaker 3>even if they are the complete loser, there is a

0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:12.920
<v Speaker 3>conversation to be had about what happens next. So at

0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:15.840
<v Speaker 3>some point people somewhere will have to sit down and

0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:16.880
<v Speaker 3>start talking.

0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:19.760
<v Speaker 1>Before we get there, Kathy has President Trump made a

0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:23.680
<v Speaker 1>strategic error by alienating his European allies, many of whom

0:04:23.680 --> 0:04:26.080
<v Speaker 1>are now refusing to allow US forces to use their

0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:28.039
<v Speaker 1>bases well.

0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.240
<v Speaker 3>I think this is a really interesting question because what

0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.920
<v Speaker 3>we've seen has been a breadth and spread of support

0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.960
<v Speaker 3>or not support from across Europe. You've had Chancellor Mertz,

0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:38.880
<v Speaker 3>who seems to be the most forward leaning in some

0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:42.039
<v Speaker 3>ways in support of the American action. You've had the

0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:45.479
<v Speaker 3>Prime Minister who under international law believed that the beginning

0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:49.359
<v Speaker 3>of this was inappropriate, but was willing to help coursing

0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:51.840
<v Speaker 3>defense of people in the Gulf. And then you've got

0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.720
<v Speaker 3>the Spanish Prime Minister who said absolutely not. And they

0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:59.640
<v Speaker 3>probably represent the classic European mix of feeling and thinking

0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:04.159
<v Speaker 3>about this. But at some point the Europeans will have

0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:07.520
<v Speaker 3>to and will come together. Russels is an extraordinary place

0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:10.560
<v Speaker 3>where in the end you do get a kind of consensus.

0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:13.360
<v Speaker 3>It may not be what everybody wants all the time,

0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:15.560
<v Speaker 3>but it's a sort of way of trying to come

0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.560
<v Speaker 3>together and actually decide what they're going to do. But

0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:21.359
<v Speaker 3>for them too, they'll be very conscious of what this

0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:26.080
<v Speaker 3>is meaning for our attention span on Ukraine and what's happening,

0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.000
<v Speaker 3>because we're thinking about rightly the Gulf, but we're not

0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:33.279
<v Speaker 3>thinking about Ukraine and the implications for missiles and for

0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.080
<v Speaker 3>the ability to be able to support and arm Ukraine

0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:37.520
<v Speaker 3>effectively in the future.

0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:42.120
<v Speaker 2>Is it strategic then for European countries to rally behind

0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.440
<v Speaker 2>the American efforts to try and, as you say, refocus

0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.680
<v Speaker 2>attention on Ukraine and supporting that country.

0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:51.120
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think there'll be a number of things. I

0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.159
<v Speaker 3>think first of all, they'll be looking to try and

0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.359
<v Speaker 3>support the Americans when it comes to helping out with

0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:58.120
<v Speaker 3>the countries of the Gulf that are under attack. So

0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:00.400
<v Speaker 3>I think you will start to see a bit more

0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:04.960
<v Speaker 3>forward leaning on that because that's important to Europeans, not

0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:08.279
<v Speaker 3>these because they're Europeans living all over the Gulf. I

0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:12.159
<v Speaker 3>think secondly, there'll be a desire to keep the relationship

0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:14.800
<v Speaker 3>with the United States in good shape as far as

0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:18.640
<v Speaker 3>they possibly can, especially when it comes to support for Ukraine.

0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:22.080
<v Speaker 3>But also there's a big economic question underneath all of this,

0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.479
<v Speaker 3>which is about energy prices and about the economies across Europe.

0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:29.720
<v Speaker 3>And of course President Trump is willing to use tariffs

0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:32.520
<v Speaker 3>as a method to try and bring people to his

0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:35.039
<v Speaker 3>way of thinking, or at least to say he's not

0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.440
<v Speaker 3>happy with the decisions that they've made.

0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:39.880
<v Speaker 1>Kathy, we really appreciate you coming in to talk to

0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.839
<v Speaker 1>US today. Kathy Ashton there, who was the EU's first

0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.880
<v Speaker 1>High representative on Foreign affairs from twenty nine to twenty

0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:50.039
<v Speaker 1>fourteen and a key negotiator of the previous Iran nuclear deal.

0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:50.880
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much