Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Well, let's bring you more now on the conflict in
Speaker 2: the Middle East, with the attacks now and their seventh
Speaker 2: day around stepping up strikes as we were hearing on
Speaker 2: countries across the Gulf, with the number of alerts in
Speaker 2: the region being reported this morning. Let's discuss now with
Speaker 2: Kathy Ashton, who is the EU's first High Representative and
Speaker 2: Foreign Affairs from twenty nine to twenty fourteen and a
Speaker 2: key negotiator of the previous Around nuclear deal known as
Speaker 2: the JCPOA. Kathy Ashen, Good morning, Welcome to Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: What is your reading of the situation in the Middle
Speaker 2: East today? Do you see any path to de escalation
Speaker 2: from where we are now?
Speaker 3: Well, I think there are a couple of things. First
Speaker 3: of all, it's important that we try and find out
Speaker 3: what exactly President Trump's ambition is for how this will end,
Speaker 3: because on the one hand, there's a degrading of Iran's
Speaker 3: potential nuclear program and of course the removal of ballistic
Speaker 3: missiles and launches and so on, preventing around from playing
Speaker 3: any significant role in the region or with its proxies.
Speaker 3: And on the other hand, you have the prospect of
Speaker 3: some kind of regime change, which is a much longer process,
Speaker 3: as we know from other countries and other experiences, and
Speaker 3: where you're trying to look for people who can lead
Speaker 3: the country in a different direction, and that so far
Speaker 3: has proved i think, quite elusive for President Trump, despite
Speaker 3: him saying he wants to be involved in choosing that person,
Speaker 3: despite them talking about a variety of different people, some
Speaker 3: of whom have been killed, some of whom don't seem
Speaker 3: to be appearing on the horizon. So there is a
Speaker 3: sort of bigger question about what is the objective when
Speaker 3: it comes to Iran. And then of course there is
Speaker 3: a question of what Tehran is trying to do by
Speaker 3: sending missiles all over the Gulf. Is it about trying
Speaker 3: to send warning signals, is it specifically about targeting US
Speaker 3: military facilities, or as we've seen, is it broader And
Speaker 3: are they trying to say to countries, You've got to
Speaker 3: tell the Americans and Israelis to cut back on this
Speaker 3: because for your own safety.
Speaker 1: Well, what should we make of the potential successes to
Speaker 1: the late Ayatollah? Trump says that his second oldest son
Speaker 1: is unacceptable.
Speaker 3: Well, that's right, and this is what it gets kind
Speaker 3: of interesting, if I can use that word in terms
Speaker 3: of what the Americans want to achieve. There's been a
Speaker 3: number of names sort of being thrown around. Ali Lara
Speaker 3: johanis one, the Ayatollah's second son is as you say another.
Speaker 3: If these are unacceptable people, well where are the acceptable
Speaker 3: people that the problem in Iran has been? I think
Speaker 3: that we don't see the level of organized opposition that
Speaker 3: you would see perhaps in other countries. And that's because
Speaker 3: they've been oppressed. It's not because people don't oppose the regime.
Speaker 3: It's because when they do, we see these massacres, we
Speaker 3: see people in prison and so on. So very simplistically,
Speaker 3: if the IRGC wanted to surrender, who would they surrender to?
Speaker 2: Where does this with your experience in negotiating with the
Speaker 2: Uranians in the past as well? Is there any path
Speaker 2: from here that can lead back to diplomacy on the
Speaker 2: nuclear issue? Or is the US was this US action
Speaker 2: inevitable to try and bring an end to any prospective
Speaker 2: nuclear programming Iran?
Speaker 3: Well, this is the chosen method, if you like. When
Speaker 3: we had the JCP away, we were confident that he
Speaker 3: Ran could not build a nuclear weapon. Within at least
Speaker 3: twelve months of US engaging with him. In other words,
Speaker 3: that we would have at least a twelve month window
Speaker 3: in which we could take military action, we could put
Speaker 3: pressure on them, and so on. We had thousands of cameras,
Speaker 3: hundreds of monitors on site who could see exactly what
Speaker 3: was going on. That gave a certainty and a security.
Speaker 3: We hoped to the world that we knew what was
Speaker 3: happening there. President Trump did not agree with that approach,
Speaker 3: and he has always taken the view that this was
Speaker 3: about a kind of wind loose, that the Iranians had
Speaker 3: to give up everything completely in order to achieve what
Speaker 3: he wanted. So it's hard to see how we get back.
Speaker 3: Excuse me to diploma, see in the traditional sense, having
Speaker 3: said that all conflicts end with people sitting around a table,
Speaker 3: even if they are the complete loser, there is a
Speaker 3: conversation to be had about what happens next. So at
Speaker 3: some point people somewhere will have to sit down and
Speaker 3: start talking.
Speaker 1: Before we get there, Kathy has President Trump made a
Speaker 1: strategic error by alienating his European allies, many of whom
Speaker 1: are now refusing to allow US forces to use their
Speaker 1: bases well.
Speaker 3: I think this is a really interesting question because what
Speaker 3: we've seen has been a breadth and spread of support
Speaker 3: or not support from across Europe. You've had Chancellor Mertz,
Speaker 3: who seems to be the most forward leaning in some
Speaker 3: ways in support of the American action. You've had the
Speaker 3: Prime Minister who under international law believed that the beginning
Speaker 3: of this was inappropriate, but was willing to help coursing
Speaker 3: defense of people in the Gulf. And then you've got
Speaker 3: the Spanish Prime Minister who said absolutely not. And they
Speaker 3: probably represent the classic European mix of feeling and thinking
Speaker 3: about this. But at some point the Europeans will have
Speaker 3: to and will come together. Russels is an extraordinary place
Speaker 3: where in the end you do get a kind of consensus.
Speaker 3: It may not be what everybody wants all the time,
Speaker 3: but it's a sort of way of trying to come
Speaker 3: together and actually decide what they're going to do. But
Speaker 3: for them too, they'll be very conscious of what this
Speaker 3: is meaning for our attention span on Ukraine and what's happening,
Speaker 3: because we're thinking about rightly the Gulf, but we're not
Speaker 3: thinking about Ukraine and the implications for missiles and for
Speaker 3: the ability to be able to support and arm Ukraine
Speaker 3: effectively in the future.
Speaker 2: Is it strategic then for European countries to rally behind
Speaker 2: the American efforts to try and, as you say, refocus
Speaker 2: attention on Ukraine and supporting that country.
Speaker 3: Well, I think there'll be a number of things. I
Speaker 3: think first of all, they'll be looking to try and
Speaker 3: support the Americans when it comes to helping out with
Speaker 3: the countries of the Gulf that are under attack. So
Speaker 3: I think you will start to see a bit more
Speaker 3: forward leaning on that because that's important to Europeans, not
Speaker 3: these because they're Europeans living all over the Gulf. I
Speaker 3: think secondly, there'll be a desire to keep the relationship
Speaker 3: with the United States in good shape as far as
Speaker 3: they possibly can, especially when it comes to support for Ukraine.
Speaker 3: But also there's a big economic question underneath all of this,
Speaker 3: which is about energy prices and about the economies across Europe.
Speaker 3: And of course President Trump is willing to use tariffs
Speaker 3: as a method to try and bring people to his
Speaker 3: way of thinking, or at least to say he's not
Speaker 3: happy with the decisions that they've made.
Speaker 1: Kathy, we really appreciate you coming in to talk to
Speaker 1: US today. Kathy Ashton there, who was the EU's first
Speaker 1: High representative on Foreign affairs from twenty nine to twenty
Speaker 1: fourteen and a key negotiator of the previous Iran nuclear deal.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much