1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories, 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APEC region. You 5 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast 6 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business App. I'm Doug Prisoner in New York along 8 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 2: with my colleague Mary Nicola. M Live strategists joining us 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 2: from Singapore. Tim mow is with us. He is the 10 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 2: chief Asia Pacific Regional equity strategist at Goldmund Sechs. He's 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 2: on the line from the Lion City. 12 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 3: Tim. 13 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure. Can we talk about Ali Baba not 14 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 2: specifically as a company, but in the context of what's 15 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: happening on the mainland where there seems to be a 16 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: bit of positivity related to ire AI. However, when you 17 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: look at e commerce, things are not great. 18 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, thanks for having me on. I 19 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 4: think that in many ways the question you've asked is 20 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 4: is emblematic of what is taking place in the Chinese 21 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 4: equity market, and fundamentally so, I'd say just Stepping back, 22 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 4: the broader picture is that the platform companies in general 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 4: are reporting decent earnings, better earnings certainly than many other 24 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 4: parts of the market, so in larger terms it's. 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 3: A bright spot. 26 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 4: Ali Baba's numbers were somewhat softer, for example, than ten cents. 27 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 4: Ronald Coom, who's our Internet analysts, has been writing extensively 28 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 4: about this and has lots more detail which we can 29 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 4: share with you perhaps another time. But the key point 30 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 4: is that I think the underlying spending and appetite for 31 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 4: consumption in China certainly is soft and. 32 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: Under under pressure. 33 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 4: That has led to people trading down to greater focus 34 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 4: on conserving expenditure. Household savings remains well above thirty percent 35 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 4: household savings percent of household income, and I think that's 36 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 4: all a reflection of subdued risk appetite, which is a 37 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 4: function of the fact that the economy has slowed and 38 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 4: that people are feeling perhaps less secure about either current income. 39 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 4: There's a wealth effect from property, and also we see 40 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 4: some concerns about job stability, so all that is led 41 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 4: to trading down, which of course then filters through to 42 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 4: a focus on cheaper products, and that's compressing margins, and 43 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 4: we've seen that show up in a abob's numbers, So 44 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,119 Speaker 4: I think that's really sort of the broader narrative. 45 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 3: Which is taking place. 46 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: Tim. This is Mary and Singapore. Just a question on 47 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: how do you see how do you see the earnings 48 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: outlook for this quarter and for the next quarter as 49 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 1: well in China. 50 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 3: Sure. 51 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 4: So, we actually just published a piece yesterday and we've 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:56,119 Speaker 4: taken our numbers down for the onshore so called ashare 53 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 4: market down to six percent earnings growth for the full 54 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 4: year this year. That's pretty meanfully below consensus. We're somewhat 55 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 4: more constructive on the offshore segment, but still below consentus there, 56 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 4: we're about eight percent for the offshore MBSCI China index 57 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 4: as compared to six percent for the CSI three hundred 58 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 4: onshore A share index. 59 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 3: Consensus is still up in the low. 60 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 4: Teens and we think is unrealistically high. 61 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 3: I'd say maybe the better. 62 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 4: News from equity market perspective is that the buyside investors 63 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 4: that we speak with generally. 64 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 3: Are in tune with our numbers. 65 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 4: So even though we think there may be some further 66 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 4: downgrades to consensus sell side earnings numbers, we think that's 67 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 4: pretty well in the price, and in fact, if you 68 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 4: look at China's valuations as of the closed yesterday, the 69 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 4: MCI index is trading at eight point eight times forward 70 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 4: PE and the CSI two hundred trading at ten point nine, 71 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 4: and those are about a standard deviation below the longer 72 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 4: term means. So market certainly is pricing a lot of 73 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 4: concern and negativity, but I think we really need to 74 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 4: see the underlying earning stabilize and come through in order 75 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 4: to see the market regain its footing and regain uppertraction. 76 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 2: So yesterday is I'm sure you are well aware, Tim, 77 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 2: and we had the monthly activity data for July. Industrial 78 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: output was up at a rate to annual rate of 79 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 2: around five to one, a little bit below what we 80 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 2: had in June. I think that increase was five to three. 81 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 2: One of the things that has been a bright spot, 82 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: and I'm curious to get your take on whether it's 83 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: going to continue, is the export economy in China. Do 84 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 2: you expect it to hold up. 85 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 5: Well? 86 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: The quick answer is yes, But you also raise an 87 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 4: important point, which is that China is currently tracking somewhat 88 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 4: below but roughly in line with its about five percent 89 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 4: policy declared growth intention. However, as Kwai Shan as our 90 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 4: chief China economist and our ECON team will broadly have 91 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 4: been noting that growth is imbalanced, and the question you 92 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:50,239 Speaker 4: raise is the appropriate. 93 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 3: One, which is that the export. 94 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 4: Side of the economy is doing quite well, whereas a 95 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 4: domestic demand economy, which is your previous question related to 96 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 4: Ali Baba, is still quite soft. So we really think 97 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 4: that there needs to be a greater sense of policy 98 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 4: support Darisa urgency in terms of supporting domestic demand. Now, 99 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 4: there has been some effort to lean in that direction 100 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 4: in a variety of ways to support domestic consumption, but 101 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 4: we think that more is needed, especially in the context 102 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 4: of the undeniable exports success which China is enjoying. But 103 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 4: that comes of course at a time when there may 104 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 4: be more pushback from the company from the countries that 105 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 4: are receiving China's exports, given the currency of political environment 106 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 4: and the desire to protect domestic market. So if China 107 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 4: is if the overall plan or intention is to repeat 108 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: the success of say twenty years ago, in the period 109 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: following china succession to the WTO in December of two 110 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 4: thousand and one, following which China enjoyed very significant market 111 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 4: share gains externally, which then drove very significant economic growth. 112 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,359 Speaker 4: It's unlikely that that playbook will be able to be 113 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 4: repeated to the same extent in the current environment. That 114 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 4: again cycles us back to the need to support domestic demand. 115 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 1: Shifting gears a little bit to Japan equities. We've seen 116 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: extreme moves over the past week or so. Do you 117 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: think that we climb back to the highs or do 118 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: you see a deeper correction that is coming through in Japan. 119 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 4: Well, you asked a great question, because I was actually 120 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 4: just looking at that this morning, and here are some 121 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 4: numbers that I think are very helpful to keep in 122 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 4: mind that Japan, looking at the Topics Index, basically corrected 123 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 4: twenty four percent from the July high to the low 124 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 4: on Monday last week, and then it since recovered. As 125 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 4: of last as the essays closed about twenty percent from 126 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,239 Speaker 4: that low and still down about nine or six percent 127 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 4: from that previous peak. So there's been significant and severe volatility. 128 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 4: The greatest or the second greatest one day fall last Monday, 129 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 4: down twelve percent. The bottom line here is that we 130 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 4: remain constructive on Japan equities. We think that they got 131 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 4: significantly oversold because of position onminding and the much discussed 132 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 4: Japanese and carry trade, and some crowd of form positioning 133 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 4: in some of the leading index stocks. 134 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 3: But we think a lot of that is cleared. 135 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 4: There's some evidence, a decent amount of evidence that the 136 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 4: Bank Carria trade, at least the more expecutive part of it, 137 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 4: is unwound to a pretty consequential degree. And I think 138 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 4: if we focus ourselves again on the core fundamentals, which 139 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 4: are that earnings growth has come in actually quite strongly 140 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 4: for the first two quarters of calendar year twenty twenty four, 141 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 4: we're looking at high single digit earnings growth for this 142 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 4: year and for next. The topics or topicsit this got 143 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 4: down to twelve point two times forward earnings. 144 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: Tim Mo from Goldman Sachs, Thanks so much. This is Bloomberg. 145 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, Bekasia. I'm Doug Chrisner at the 146 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, along with my 147 00:07:55,720 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 2: colleague Mary Nicola m Live Strategists joining us from Singapore, 148 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: and our guest is Vance Howard, CEO and portfolio manager 149 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 2: at Howard Capital Management. Vance. Good of you to join us. 150 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: What did you make of today's eco data? It seems 151 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 2: to suggest we're on our way tour kind of a 152 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 2: soft landing here. 153 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 6: Well, we hope that we are, and you know, the 154 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 6: numbers keep coming out. You know, some weeks it's good, 155 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 6: some weeks it's not so good. But it appears that 156 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 6: inflation is dropping like a rock. It feels like it's 157 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 6: going in the right direction. I think we're going to 158 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 6: get it cut here pretty soon in September. It's going 159 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 6: to be kind of interesting to see Pal's tone at 160 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 6: the Jackson Hole meeting in the you know, the last 161 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 6: week of this month, so we'll see what kind of 162 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 6: tone and kind of burbage that he spits out there. 163 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: So Vance, how are you positioning for this? How are 164 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: you looking at the volatility? Are you looking through the volatility? 165 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: And what do you expect from equity markets in the 166 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: next three to six months. 167 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 6: Well, that's an interesting question because we know we call 168 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 6: we were talking about the market being throfty before it 169 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 6: started to drop. This was two or three or four 170 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 6: weeks ago. A week's back to a pullback. Now, I've 171 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 6: got to admit, we didn't expect to pull back this 172 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 6: hard or this deep. It was pretty pretty eye opening, 173 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 6: to be quite candid. But the carry trade. I think 174 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 6: this carry trade was a really big issue, especially after 175 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 6: that bad jobs number came out two weeks ago, and 176 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 6: I think that drove the market really lower. So it 177 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 6: stopped us out of a few positions. So we built 178 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 6: up a modest amount of cash, not very much, but 179 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 6: we're still the trend still up. The ECM bylines positive. 180 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 6: To be quite candid, I think we'll hit a new 181 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 6: high on the S and P by the end of 182 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 6: the year. I think it's a very bullish market, even 183 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 6: though we've had a pretty nasty timbercent correction with they're common. 184 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 6: They're common, so these are one of the things that happens. 185 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 2: So in terms of areas of the market that you 186 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 2: would like to focus on, are you moving away from 187 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: let's say, meg a cap tech and into some of 188 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 2: those economically sensitive areas like materials or industrials, or do 189 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 2: you think that trade is pretty much run its course 190 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 2: and it's time to look at other strategies. 191 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 6: Well, no, I think I think the Magnificent seven are 192 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 6: going to continue to do well. But I've also noticed 193 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 6: I noticed you've noticed this too, the high divid in 194 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 6: paying stocks like DVY and some of these ETFs that 195 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 6: are dividend paying equities. They've started to really ratchet up 196 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 6: and start to do better and better and better. So 197 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 6: we've been adding more exposure to high quality divid in 198 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 6: paying stocks over the past couple of months, especially in 199 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 6: one of our fun Dividend Plus. But that's been a 200 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 6: very good place to store some money. It's holding up 201 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 6: very very well. With this ten percent pullback, it didn't 202 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 6: pull back very much at all, and it's all it's 203 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 6: about to make a new high on some of these 204 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 6: dividend paying stocks, So I think they're you should look 205 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 6: for some of those income producing areas. 206 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: So you're focused on the seems like you're focused on 207 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: dividend paying stocks. How are you viewing small caps like 208 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 1: the Russell two thousand. We've seen they've had some good runs, 209 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: they've had they've had some setbacks. What's your view? 210 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 6: You know, I've been saying that people ought to start 211 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 6: diversifying in small caps over the past four or five 212 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 6: or six months, and I've been a little bit early 213 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 6: on that trade. But if you look at interest rates, 214 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 6: if they pull interest rates back in September and if 215 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 6: they make other additional cuts throughout the course of the year. 216 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 6: That's going to benefit small caps because that's going to 217 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 6: add to their earnings. Is they're very dependent. They're sort 218 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 6: of interest rate dependent. So I think small caps could 219 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 6: could be the come from behind horse here for the 220 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 6: last you know, three, four, five, six months of the year. 221 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 6: I think you can see small caps really explode to 222 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 6: the upside. 223 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 2: When you have conversations with clients the concerns that they 224 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 2: have right now. I'm interested in hearing from you. Could 225 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 2: you help me understand what really creates anxiety right now? 226 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 2: Or are they pretty sanguine on what's going to happen 227 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 2: in terms of future gains for equities. 228 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 6: I think most people are pretty positive. I mean, if 229 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 6: you look at the cash build up, there's over six 230 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 6: trillion dollars worth of cash on the sideline, So that 231 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 6: means there's a lot of buying power that can go 232 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 6: into equities over the next one, two, three years that 233 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 6: could make this bull market last for quite a long time. 234 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 6: Most of the individuals that I speak to are business 235 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 6: owners and you know, wealthy or individuals, and they're very, 236 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 6: very positive on what's taking place. You know, inflation has 237 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 6: been sort of a drag on everything, but it seems 238 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 6: to be correcting itself. Is dropping interest rates should be dropping. 239 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 6: So I think you've got a really good cattlet here 240 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 6: for a very good strong wall market, especially the last 241 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 6: quarter of the year. I think that could be, you know, 242 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 6: a pretty nice part of the year. 243 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: So you've talked a little bit about how there's a 244 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. What do you 245 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: think it'll take for more of that to be deployed 246 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: into technity markets they. 247 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 6: Start dropping rates, I think you'll start to see it 248 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 6: moving into equity markets too. And if you look at 249 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 6: the one or the two or three year treasuries, if 250 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 6: they starts to drop rates there too, that's going to 251 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 6: bring down the interest in those areas of income producing products. 252 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 6: So you're going to see that go back into market 253 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 6: to the market also. And I think that's one reason 254 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 6: that we're starting to see dividend paying stocks do so well, 255 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 6: is that movie that money is starting to shift over 256 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 6: into those type of equities. 257 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 2: Is the US the only place you want to be 258 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 2: right now? Are you looking at diversification in offshore markets 259 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 2: at all? 260 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 6: I'm not right now, And the reason being is our 261 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 6: markets have been so healthy, especially the past year year 262 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 6: and a half, So there's really no reason to look 263 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 6: overseas when there's so many opportunities right here. Our markets 264 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 6: are incredibly well regulated and or incredibly liquid, So there's 265 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 6: really no reason to venture over the pond when you 266 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 6: have such a great so many great opportunities sitting right 267 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 6: here in your backyard. 268 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: And what are your thoughts on treasuries at this point 269 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: do you think? And how soon do you think we 270 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 1: get a cut from the Fed. 271 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 6: We started buying treasuries I guess about four or five 272 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 6: six weeks ago, and we started modestly adding on any 273 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 6: dip that treasuries have. But we're getting more and more 274 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 6: bullish on treasuries, and if they dropped rates, you should 275 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 6: see the value of the treasury bond move up. 276 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 3: Now. 277 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 6: Of course, the inter traces were going to go down, 278 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 6: but I think that treasuries are sort of a something 279 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 6: that people really need to start looking at as a 280 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 6: tradable instrument. Now they're highly liquid and they actually can 281 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 6: produce some really some positive capital gains. If you're looking 282 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 6: for growth of capital. 283 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 2: You're in the state of Georgia looks like it's a 284 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 2: swing state. We've got a presidential election a few months away. Yeah, 285 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: that's a big deal, I think, and the outcome could 286 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 2: have economic gramifications, wouldn't you agree? I mean, do you 287 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 2: have a view not so much on this race, but 288 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 2: on what it may mean for the market going forward. 289 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 6: The one thing that does disturb me is they keep 290 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 6: talking about raising capital gains rates, and I'm not bullish 291 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 6: on that at all. I think that's going to be 292 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 6: a very big hindrance to to real estate, to investors, 293 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 6: to to stock investors, real estate investors' mind investors. I 294 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 6: think it's just going to be a very big hindrance. 295 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 6: I think that's a very negative. So I'm very much anti, 296 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 6: you know, raising the capital gains tax. So you know, 297 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 6: this elections, it's going to be pretty nauseating and quite 298 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 6: you know, quite candidly up until the very end. I'll 299 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 6: be glad when it's over and we'll see, you know, 300 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 6: we'll have to trade the market that we have, not 301 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 6: the one we wish we had. 302 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: So so from from your end, you seem very positive 303 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: on equity markets. But what keeps you up at night? What? 304 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 4: What? 305 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: What concerns you? 306 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 6: Well, what concerns me is number one, the national debt. 307 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 6: I think the national debt is incredibly disturbing. It just 308 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 6: keeps going higher and higher and higher, and that is 309 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 6: going to be a tipping point. When that breaks, you 310 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 6: are going to see the economy and you're going to 311 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 6: see a lot of things that are really going to tumble, 312 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 6: and it's going to damage a lot of people, you know, 313 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 6: not only in our country but throughout the world. So 314 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 6: our national debt's a very big disturbance. And then also, 315 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 6: you know, you look at some of what China's doing. 316 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 6: China disturbs me to some degree, so you know, need 317 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 6: to sort of watch on what's going on in the 318 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 6: Far East. 319 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 2: Fifty five forty three that's where we ended today for 320 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 2: the S and P. Five hundred, Vance, ten seconds, what's 321 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 2: your year end target for the S and P. 322 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 6: We'll make a new fifty two week high this year. 323 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 6: We'll be over fifty seven hundred on the SMP in 324 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 6: my opinion. 325 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 2: All right, pretty bullish, Vince, Thank you so much for 326 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 2: making time to chat with us. He's Vance Howard, CEO 327 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: and portfolio manager at Howard Capital Management from Roswell, Georgia. 328 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: Here on de break Besia. Let's get to our guest 329 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 2: Terry Spath is with us a founder, chief investment officer 330 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 2: ad to zooma Wealth. Terry is in Malibu, California. It's 331 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 2: always a pleasure to have you on the program. Thanks 332 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 2: for making time to chat with us. 333 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 5: Well, thank you, don It's always a pleasure to be 334 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 5: on here. Right. I hope you're having a great summer 335 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 5: in New York. 336 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, we are. It's a little human but that's to 337 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 2: be expected. Less so the case in Malibu, right right 338 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 2: on the Pacific Ocean there, I'm sure you've got a 339 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 2: great view. Talk to me about the idea of a 340 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 2: soft landing. The day's economic news seems to be lining 341 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 2: up on that trajectory. Is that your bet? 342 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 5: Well, I'm not sure it's my bet. It's certainly the 343 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 5: market's bet. After today, you know, investors can be forgiven 344 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 5: for feeling a little bit paralyzed and reacting very quickly 345 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:36,359 Speaker 5: to someone. You know what. We spent some nice news recently. 346 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 5: The retail number was that came out today was perceived 347 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 5: as a goldilock sort of not too hot, not too 348 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 5: col The consumer's holding up, but there's still some sticky 349 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 5: inflation out there. There's still some pushing and pulling on 350 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 5: the data and you know, in our view the economy 351 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 5: is doing just fine. Does that mean it's not going 352 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 5: to be bumpy in this landing that's probably coming between 353 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 5: now when you're in, it'll probably be bumpy in That 354 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 5: injects volatility into the market, so you know, that creates opportunity. 355 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 5: That creates opportunity when we see some of those down 356 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 5: drafts and big updates, you can enjoy the upswing from that. Terry. 357 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 1: This is Mary and Singapore. I want to bring you 358 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: to this side of the world, Japan. Obviously we've seen 359 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: immense volatility over the past week or so. How do 360 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: you think the stock market plays out? What do you 361 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: think are do you see a continued searche in the 362 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 1: knee k and how do you see the what's your 363 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: view over the next three to six months? 364 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, Japan's been really interesting, hasn't it. I mean, you're 365 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 5: even closer to it over there in Singapore. But you know, 366 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 5: and I do think that I'm glad you brought up 367 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 5: that topic because I think you know, over here in 368 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 5: the United States most people are underweight Japan, most investors, 369 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 5: and there's a lot of opportunity there. The decision by 370 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 5: the Bank of Japan to hike rates basically at the 371 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 5: same time that the United States really soft economic data 372 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 5: really drove that surge in the end that we saw, 373 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 5: you know, a week or two ago, and that injected 374 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,959 Speaker 5: a lot of instability. And so after a very strong 375 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 5: period for Japanese stocks, you know, there's been volatility, there's 376 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 5: been a pause. But the structural changes that are underway 377 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 5: in Japan, the slashing of regulations, the cutting of corporate 378 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 5: taxes and a lot more, I think that those are 379 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 5: still very underestimated here in the United States and our 380 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 5: view there's very much of a bias for home country, 381 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 5: and you know, at least you should have a five 382 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 5: percent allocation to Japan. That just makes you market weight. 383 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 5: Any hesitation like we've seen in stock prices for the 384 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 5: broad Japanese market is an opportunity. Right now. It's still 385 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 5: below where it was very recently. The valuations are still 386 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 5: very good, and so we think investors should take advantage 387 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 5: of that volatility and make sure that they have at 388 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 5: least market weight and ideally an overweight position with exposure 389 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 5: to Japan. 390 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 1: So, just to follow up here, so what do you 391 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: think are the implications of a weaker yen on corporate earnings, 392 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: because we've heard a lot about how companies have benefited. 393 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 1: Companies like Toyota have benefited from a weaker currency. So 394 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: what do you think are the implications of a week 395 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: or of a much stronger yen. 396 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 5: Of a stronger yet yeah, I mean that would that 397 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 5: would create a headwind, you know, a weeker yen, a 398 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:40,199 Speaker 5: weaker currency for most companies that have international operations. That's 399 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 5: that creates tailwind So if the if the end gets stronger, 400 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 5: which is a fair probability, if their interest rates are 401 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 5: going up relative to the US, which is probably a 402 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 5: good chance, but there are so many other tailwinds essentially 403 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 5: going on in Japan on a structural base. Says that 404 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 5: we think that that outweighs the risk of you know, 405 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 5: the problems that is stronger that a stronger currency creates 406 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 5: for Japanese companies. So while you know, I think you 407 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 5: bring up a very good point, and I think people 408 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 5: should be aware of that, I don't think that that 409 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 5: changes our general thesis for the strength of that country 410 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 5: and the structural changes that are really so, really so 411 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 5: exciting after a long time of not being exciting for Japan. 412 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 3: No joke. 413 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 2: I mean it was very impressively reading on second quarter 414 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,239 Speaker 2: GDP the other day at three to one. I mean 415 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 2: the street was only looking for two three, And I 416 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 2: was particularly impressed at that figure because if you consider 417 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 2: the fact that Japan's largest trading partner is China, and 418 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,199 Speaker 2: we know China continues to struggle, the fact that Japan 419 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 2: has been doing so well is even more impressive in 420 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 2: that context. 421 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 5: It is it is, and you know, and that's that 422 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 5: brings up an interesting point because we are very negative 423 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 5: on China, and that's you know again that that can 424 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 5: create some problems for a lot of their trading partners. 425 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 5: And we're a hard no on China. I mean, the 426 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 5: problems there are are also structural. They're producing way more 427 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 5: output than the world can begin to absorb. That means 428 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 5: Chinese companies have to cut prices. That means falling profits. 429 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 5: It's like this doom loop of falling praises, factory closures 430 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 5: and solvency, job losses. It's just it's not not good 431 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 5: and it's going to take a long time for those 432 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 5: implications to switch to the to the positive. So, you know, 433 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 5: negative on China, make sure you're exposed to Japan. That's 434 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 5: really one of our big messages for our investors. 435 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 2: Good messages to have. Thank you so much Terry for 436 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 2: making time to chat with us at Terry Spath from 437 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 2: Zooma Wealth and Malibu, California. That's where Terry happens to be. 438 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 2: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 439 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 2: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 440 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 2: Visit the Bluemberg podcast channel on YouTube to get more 441 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 442 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 443 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 444 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app