1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:10,880 Speaker 1: It's been seventy five days. Seventy five days since the 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Democrats were supposed to pass funding for our government. Just 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: to keep the lifebongs, we should not move a short 5 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: term see on the new economic forecast down grade as 6 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: the Fed tiptoes close to saying we will have a recession. 7 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On, Politics, Policy and Perspective from DC's top name. 8 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: Cryptocurrency industry represents the largest Ponzi scheme in history. Code 9 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: committed no crime by simply called Sam bank and free 10 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: and said where is the money? Said Floomberg Sound On 11 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. J Pal says We've 12 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: still got a ways to go. Welcome to the fastest 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 1: hour in politics. Says the Fed chair makes clear they're 14 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 1: not close to ending the war on inflation. But did 15 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: he just forecast a recession as well? We'll ask. Bloomberg 16 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 1: Economics editor Michael McKee, who was with Pal today, will 17 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: take a deep dive ahead with Mark Zany, chief economist 18 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: at Moody's Analytics. Another tough day for crypto in Congress. 19 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: Were joined by Ari red Board of t RM insights 20 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: later this hour on whether the alleged frauded f t 21 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: X is bigger than just the company, and with negotiations 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: stalling on government funding, here we'll turn to our signature 23 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: panel for help. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzino and Rick 24 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: Davis here for the hour. Clearly, we heard a lot 25 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: today on this FED day, and we're gonna be joining 26 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: a moment's talk more about Mark Zandy. What first compare 27 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: notes with Bloomberg's Michael McKee, who was in the news 28 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: conference today with J. Powell earlier on You might have 29 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: heard his question live here on Bloomberg Radio. He helps us, 30 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: of course, to not only report the news from these 31 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: meetings accurately, as in today's fifty basis point hike, but 32 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: he helps us understand the language used by Powell, verbal 33 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: and sometimes body language, and so well, you know, it's 34 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: time to go back to school, Professor McKay, welcome back 35 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: to sounding lovely to be here. Seventy five down to fifty. 36 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: We got that, but a new outlook on things today. 37 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: Let's listen to J. Pow as shown in the SEP 38 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal 39 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: funds rate is five point one percent at the end 40 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 1: of next year, a half percentage point higher than projected 41 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: in September five point one percent. What does that tell 42 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,519 Speaker 1: us why the chain, Well, another seventy five basis points 43 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: is what they're building into that. And what was kind 44 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: of key to is that seven of the nineteen members 45 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: thought it should be higher than five point one percent. 46 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 1: So the Fed wants to be hawkish at this point. 47 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: And it's kind of interesting because we have seen some 48 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: good inflation data lately, but Paul said, we're not there yet. 49 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: Did the Fed just predict a recession? They came very close. 50 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: They're basically acknowledging what everybody has forecast, and that is 51 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: that they're going to there's going to be a recession 52 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 1: because they have to slow growth, and they have to 53 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 1: slow growth more than they thought they had because the 54 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: labor market remained so strong. Michael McKee, thank you as always. 55 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: Let's add Mark Zany to the mix now. Always a 56 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 1: pleasure to have the chief economist that Moody's analytics on 57 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 1: a FED day. Of course, no stranger to the world 58 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: of politics. And there's another side of this whole story 59 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: that we'll get to, but it's great to have you Mark. 60 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 1: Is the FED warming up to the idea of a recession? Yeah, 61 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: I mean they had that large increase in the unemployer right, 62 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 1: I think at what ended the year at four point seven, 63 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: so by the point above the current unemployee right, So 64 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 1: that would be consistent of histories, any guide with recession. 65 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: So yeah, it feels like they're inching towards that kind 66 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: of forecast. Your dog can smell the recession coming. Sorry 67 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 1: about that. I don't know what this happened. They just 68 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: lost it. I apologize. I think it's great. It's a 69 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,839 Speaker 1: big family here. Look, I don't know if what who who? 70 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: The market believes that they're already you know, it depends 71 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: on the next cp I report. But j Powell did 72 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: try to keep the door open to a soft landing 73 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: when Michael McKee asked him about it. Listen to the 74 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: way he answered this question or whether he was ruling 75 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,839 Speaker 1: one out. No, I wouldn't say that. No, I don't 76 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: say that. I mean I would say this, um, you know, 77 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: to the extent we need to keep rates higher and 78 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: keep him there for longer. Inflation, you know, moves up 79 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: higher and higher. I think that that narrows the runway, 80 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: but lower inflation readings, if they persist in time, could 81 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: could certainly make it more possible. So I just I 82 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: don't think anyone knows whether we're going to have a 83 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: recession or not. Was that a dose of honesty right there, Mark? 84 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: Or is he? Is he just trying to keep all 85 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: options open? No? I think that was honest. You know, 86 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: I think if you, I think he honestly doesn't know. 87 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: As if you asked him, hey, what's the probability recession three? 88 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: I bet the answer is, you know. And if I 89 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: had to pick a side, you know, I think he 90 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: might pick the side of recession, but I'm not sure 91 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: could go either way. And that's how about Yeah, that's 92 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: how I feel. I I am. But if I had 93 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: to pick a side, I'd say no recession. I mean, 94 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: and and I say that was more confidence today than 95 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: I've been able to say that in a couple three months. 96 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: That inflation number we got yesterday, that that was a 97 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: pretty good number. Now, obviously it's one month on top 98 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: of a pretty good month last month, so it's still 99 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: we need a string of those. But it feels pretty 100 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: good to me. It feels like this is the inflation 101 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: statistics are moving in the right direction quickly, and they 102 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: may not need to get to that five point one 103 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: percent terminal rate that they're talking about. Yeah, that number 104 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 1: spooked some people. Uh, so well we get another CPI, 105 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: we get another jobs report before the next FED meeting, right, 106 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: So that that's that's why we don't know. Yeah, and 107 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 1: that cp I number is probably gonna be pretty good, 108 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: at least top line is gonna be. It's gonna be 109 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 1: good because we know gas prices are down, a person 110 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: are down, and that's already baked in and that that Uh. 111 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 1: And if this feels like, you know, inflation seems to 112 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: be coming off the boil here across the board, across 113 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,479 Speaker 1: all the products and services, and the job market is uh, 114 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: you know, it's strong, but it is throttling back. I mean, 115 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: hiring is back to where it was pretty pandemic until 116 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 1: positions are coming in. People are still quitting their jobs 117 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: at a high rate, but much slower rate than was 118 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 1: the case a few months ago. Hours worked or down. 119 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: You know, it just feels like everything's kind of moving 120 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: in the right direction here. For soft landing is not 121 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: the right word. We gotta come up Joe with a 122 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: different way of describing. It's not going to be soft. 123 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 1: It's going to be uncomfortable, but we have a chance 124 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: of getting through without you know, a full blown recession, 125 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: which would be very, very uncomfortable. So another yes, and 126 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: another big question is how much do they hike at 127 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: the next meeting? UH, with that data in mind, j 128 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: Powell says again he doesn't know. Here's how he answered, 129 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: I haven't made a judgment on what size rate hike 130 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: to make. It's having moved so quickly and having now 131 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: so much restraint that's still in the pipeline. We think 132 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: that the appropriate thing to do now is to move 133 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 1: to a slower pace. It will depend on a variety 134 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: of factors, including the incoming data, in particular the state 135 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: of the economy, state of financial conditions. So when he 136 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: says a slower pace, though, I was kind of surprised 137 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 1: to hear that mark because I thought the today was 138 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 1: building back to the idea of basis points with some 139 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 1: of what we were hearing them, I just I don't 140 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 1: I'm reading it all wrong. No, no, no, I think 141 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: that you know we're fifty The question for the next 142 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: meeting is a twenty five basic points a quarter point 143 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: or a half a point. And uh, my guess is 144 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: they're going to do a quarter point if my forecast 145 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: of the CPI number just you know, comes roughly true. Here. 146 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: Here's the other thing I point out, Joe. You know, 147 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: if I were them, even if I felt pretty good 148 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: about the inflation numbers and where they were headed, I 149 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: don't think i'd indicate that at all, because you don't 150 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: want so called financial conditions to ease here. You know, 151 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: we need the economy to slow, so you don't want 152 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: the stock market to come more and back. So I 153 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: think I'm sure they're very happy to see read on 154 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: the screen today after the meeting. They yeah, And they 155 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: don't want mortgage rights to come in. They don't want 156 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: you know, the dollar to come down. They don't want 157 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: credit spreads to narrow. They want financial conditions to remain 158 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: tight so that the job market does slow, the economy 159 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: does weaken, and waging price pasures come in. So if 160 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: I were there, might be you know, saying these things 161 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: as well, even if I thought that, you know, we 162 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 1: had a pretty good chance of making our way through 163 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: here without a downturn. Inflation will moderate. The headline today 164 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: was We've still got a ways to go, and the 165 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: idea is, even if they stop hiking, they're gonna keep 166 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: rates at a higher level for quite some time. By 167 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: the end of next year, when when Joe Biden, whether 168 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: he meant to say it or not yesterday suggested prices 169 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: would be normalized. Uh, and will be of course, in 170 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:31,119 Speaker 1: the throes of a presidential campaign. The White House doesn't 171 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: like to talk about the FED at all. They defer 172 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 1: to the FED, they don't comment on the FED. I 173 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: understand that. But at what point, Mark, is there going 174 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: to be real political pressure when you start seeing the 175 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: damage to the job market, specifically also the housing market, Uh, 176 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: pressure for the FED to start cutting Yeah, I don't 177 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: know that that that pressure is gonna be there regardless 178 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: of the political environment. I mean, you know, even if 179 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: there was no election, no political pressure at all, it's 180 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: gonna get trickier for the you know, for policy makers, 181 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: the FED. You know, when the economy does start to 182 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: really go flat, job growth goes to zero, we get 183 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: a month or two of negative job numbers, unemployments movement higher, 184 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: and inflation is still monitoring, still high, but monitoring. I mean, 185 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: that's that's when we get down to brass tacks and 186 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: that's going to be much more difficult for them at 187 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 1: that point. My guess is at that point they stopped 188 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: raising rates and they just stop, take a look around 189 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: and see how things play out. By the way, just 190 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: the point of interest, if the fund rate is going 191 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: to be over five percent by the inn the next 192 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: year there, that is not consistent with recession, right, because 193 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: if you're going into recession, they're going to be scrambling 194 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: the lower rates at some point. So they're they're right 195 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: on the on the edge here with a part of 196 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: that recession forecast as well. My colleague Tim Stane, back 197 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: before you joined us, was asking about the household savings 198 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 1: rate if people blown the COVID savings by now, Mark, No, 199 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 1: they've got plenty of direct calculation. Yeah, peaked at two 200 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: point five trillion back in September of one, and we're 201 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: down to one point eight trillion. Now, that's that's data 202 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: through through October. So it may have come down in November. 203 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: But folks at the lower part of the income distribubution, yes, absolutely, 204 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: And that's why we're seeing credit card borrowing and unsecured 205 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: personal lines you know, rising because laurencome households are using 206 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: that to kind of supplement their purchasing power. But middle 207 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 1: income households and high income households plenty of cash. And 208 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: the low saving rate reflects the use of that cash. Right, 209 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: that's there, that's that's in their checking account. They use 210 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: that cash, and that drives down the saving right, so 211 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: they're they're using it to supplement their income, their purchasing powers, 212 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: just to maintain their their spending. So still plenty of 213 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:41,959 Speaker 1: cash there, two cushion any effects of the high inflation. 214 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: Let's see how it bears out in retail spending this 215 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: holiday season. I'm sure, and we want to continue the 216 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: conversation with you as always, Mark, thanks for coming back. 217 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: Marksany is the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, and it 218 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: just has been a great resource for us over this 219 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: entire cycle. Here, uh and understanding what the heck the 220 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: FET is doing. Let assemble the panel for their take quickly, 221 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jennie Schanzano or with us our signature 222 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: panel of course on sound on Gennie, this is boy. 223 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 1: You're a democratic white house. You may not be taking 224 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: questions on the FED, but but they've got to be 225 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: looking over here say, man, this is gonna be tough 226 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: next year. We're gonna be gearing up the time, assuming 227 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: for a re election. Well maybe in the throes of 228 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: a re election campaign. The job market is going to 229 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: feel these rate hikes, That is the point, and everyone's 230 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: going to be pointing fingers. That's right. And you know, 231 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: you heard him say that unemployment expect, you know, protected 232 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: to rise to four point six You had some members saying, 233 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: you know, pessimistically, it could top five percent. Very bad 234 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 1: news for the White House. And you know, interesting, he 235 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: says very little about the supply chain and the sort 236 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: of unusual way in which the pandemic has led us 237 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: to this inflation. And I think that's got to be 238 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: a big concern for this White House because you know, 239 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 1: it's not unexpected. But the idea that he's not talking 240 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: about the supply shocks I is a real misstep of 241 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: for the White House, and they're going to have to 242 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 1: address that. Will the will the refrain from Republicans Rick 243 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: Davis be that you know what about the jobs, Mr President, 244 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: We're going to go back to that knowing that unemployment 245 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 1: will be rising by them. Yeah, I think it's gonna 246 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 1: be interesting to see the transition because uh, you know, 247 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to speculate after experts like you know, 248 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: McKee and Zandy have opined on all this stuff. But 249 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:26,839 Speaker 1: speaking politically, I mean, everybody was talking recession in September 250 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: in August, right, I mean, like we're going into the 251 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: election and Republicans were all saying we're going to be 252 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: in a recession, and you know, gas prices were really 253 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: high and everyone's feeling the pinch, and we transition from 254 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: talking about um, you know, really inflation to recession. And 255 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,719 Speaker 1: now we got like experts like Sandy saying in his 256 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: guestometer that he's right at right. I mean, I think 257 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: that's a huge improvement for this administration. And maybe I'm 258 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: being a little polly anish about it. I mean, obviously 259 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,959 Speaker 1: today's discussion is pretty weighty related to the future economic 260 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: prospects of our country. But if you dial it back 261 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: just three months before the election, people were already digging 262 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,679 Speaker 1: that grave. Uh wow. But you know, the timing is 263 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: everything here, I suppose. But this is also, Jennie, why 264 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 1: you don't answer questions about the FED, right, This is 265 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: why the White House is literally not on the record, 266 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: that's right. I mean, they're trying to stay away from this. 267 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: You know, there's not much we can do. Let them 268 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: handle it, you know, But I do think that when 269 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: you speak politically, the fact that they have doubled down 270 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: on getting to two percent is a warning sign for 271 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: this White House behind the scenes as it as it 272 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: deals with the issue of unemployment and the pending recession. 273 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: I think, you know, Mark Zandy sounded a little bit 274 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 1: more optimistic than I've heard other people sound, and that's 275 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: a good sign for this White House. But they've got 276 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: to be very, very concerned about this two percent because 277 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: to get there is going to be a lot of pain. 278 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: And I thought today Powell was very clear he's gonna 279 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 1: put us through this pain if that's what it takes, 280 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: and that is going to be a pain for the 281 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: White House there. This White House hasn't done dealing with 282 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: energy prices either, Rick. We're in a good spot here 283 00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: for the White House to be able to say, hey, 284 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: gas prices are lower than they were before the start 285 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: of Putin's war in Ukraine, but every forecast is pointing 286 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: to tighter supplies next year. And you've got an OPEC 287 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 1: that really wants to have you know, has a has 288 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: an itchy trigger finger when it comes to cutting production. Uh, 289 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: Joe Biden isn't out of the woods with energy yet. 290 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: How does this White House get ahead of it? They 291 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: keep talking about, Uh, nuclear reactions. I think this week 292 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: nuclear fusion. Uh. Just keep focused on the future. Uh. 293 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: I mean, this is going to be the bane of 294 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: this administration existence. He's wildly fluctuating. Uh, you know, power prices, 295 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: gas prices, It's going to be a very cold winter. 296 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: And and and this could have its own impact on 297 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: the administration. And and and I do think they risk 298 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: wildly risk getting into the pinch because that they talk 299 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: about it so much, right and frankly, they ought to 300 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: They ought to ban a discussion on gas prices, to say, way, 301 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: they've banned a discussion on the federal reserves interest rate 302 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: hikes because it just does them no good to be 303 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: on the wrong side of history here. And and they 304 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: can't write history. He's tried, He's failed this administrations on 305 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: everything they could to control gas prices, and they can't. 306 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 1: So they need to just quit talking about it and 307 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: find other ways in the economy to make things work better, 308 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: maybe take advantage of these prices. Genie refill the spr 309 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: That's a pretty good headline, isn't it. We made money 310 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: on it. That's that's right. That would be one positive 311 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: they can do. And I think, you know, as I 312 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 1: talked to young people, that's just underscore highest rate in 313 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: fifteen years for young people graduating from college going out 314 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: on the job market. They've you know, most people under 315 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: a certain age have never lived through interest rates and 316 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: this high. It's not seventies high, it's not, you know that, 317 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: but it is high for people who haven't experienced this. 318 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: And if it keeps going up like it seems like 319 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: it may for the short term, that's going to be 320 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: a political problem for the White House and for Democrats. 321 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: Well that's why he's canceling the student debt. Oh wait 322 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: a minute, not so fast that, Genie and Rick, thank 323 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: you as always, of course, and don't go anywhere. We've 324 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: got the panel for the hour. We're gonna be turning 325 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: ahead to a deal on Capitol Hill as the House 326 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: takes up this stop gaps spending bill. An omnibus framework 327 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: has been reached. Will tell you what that means and 328 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: what it might mean for the year ahead. Also, the 329 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: leadership battle in the House not over yet. We'll tell 330 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: you what's going on with Kevin McCarthy and his odds 331 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: at holding the gabbled. Next, this is Bloomberg. You're listening 332 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 333 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: So they say they have a deal. Democrats have a 334 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: deal on a framework to fund the government this fiscal year, 335 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: putting Congress on track now to complete a roughly one 336 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: point seven trillion dollar package before the end of December 337 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: and avoid a shutdown. You say, but wait, the shutdown 338 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 1: was Friday, And that's true. The government does run out 339 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: of money on Friday, as we were reminded today by 340 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: Congressman Jason Smith, Republican, top Republican on the Budget Committee, 341 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,360 Speaker 1: came out swinging in a briefing today. It's been seventy 342 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 1: five days. Seventy five days since the Democrats were supposed 343 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: to pass funding for our government just to keep the 344 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,360 Speaker 1: lights on, and we are less than two weeks away 345 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 1: from Christmas and they're trying to jam through a huge 346 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: spending bill. Of course, they need to pass a stopgap 347 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 1: bill to allow time for all this to happen. And 348 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: the man who would be Speaker, Kevin McCarthy says he 349 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: wasn't consulted. He doesn't want any party. You just had 350 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: an election where we changed the course, where the House 351 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: is now going to be controlled by Republicans. You have 352 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: Democrats who controlled all and didn't do their job, are 353 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: now going to try to jam us right before Christmas 354 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: a bill that funds the entire government that we don't 355 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,439 Speaker 1: have any input in another's. It wouldn't have anything to 356 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: do with being speaker. It has to do with the 357 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 1: American public and what the future of America is going 358 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: to be when it comes to to fiscal resources. You 359 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: may not be surprised to hear he wants to wait 360 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: until the next Congress next month, and of course Republicans 361 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: will be in the majority. Still a little bit unclear 362 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: on whether he'll be speaker, but we'll get to that 363 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: with our panel. Rick Davis and Jeannie Schanzano are back 364 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. What's your take on this, Rick, 365 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: I guess we shouldn't be surprised too much by Kevin McCarthy. 366 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: But we're also not talking about a government shutdown here either. No. 367 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, his views on this are 368 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: completely irrelevant he has no ability to control the outcome. 369 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: He can't stop this from happening. And there is a deal. 370 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: My appropriations chairs in the Senate didn't disappoint me on 371 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: their last budget that they will approve. They've agreed to 372 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: a top line number. They did it by sustaining the 373 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 1: defense uh increases without commensurate domestic spending increases, and and 374 00:18:56,040 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 1: the House Appropriations Democratic Chair Rosa De Lauro says, I'm 375 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: all in. So this deal is done, and there's a 376 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 1: lot of paperwork on a train and a half plus 377 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: dollar budget, so they're gonna work hard on that now. 378 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: But the mystery is solved. They've got a number, and 379 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: they've and they've got an agreement. So with all due 380 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: respect to Kevin McCarthy, future potential speaker, he needs to 381 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 1: focus more on counting votes for a speaker's job than 382 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: he does, you know, laying out a slick on you 383 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: know something that's already gonna happen. I think there was 384 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: to be a line for Eugenie uh so, just some 385 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: people understand they're expected to approve a one week uh 386 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: CR here that would bring the current funding deadline to December. Genie, 387 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: when yes, Jet fumes will be in the air. But 388 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: are you concerned about anything going wrong between now and 389 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:48,400 Speaker 1: then it's Congress? Of course I'm concerned, you know. Just 390 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: just as an example, over the weekend, Karen Bass was 391 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,439 Speaker 1: sworn in as mayor of l A write a big moment. 392 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 1: She has resigned from Congress. This leaves Nancy Pelosi with 393 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: two votes to spare. Now potentially she can pull over 394 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: Republicans who are retiring, you know. But that's how tight 395 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 1: this is. And you know, we do have McCarthy out there. 396 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: We also have McConnell versus McCarthy. Those two are going 397 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: out at McCarthy's on Fox News, you know, really lamb 398 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: basing McConnell. And McConnell's getting squeezed in the Senate as 399 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: well by senators who want him to push harder and 400 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 1: to you know, sort of push through some Republican part 401 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: of the Republican agenda. And so, you know, do does 402 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 1: this get done? I think it does. But it is 403 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 1: such a tight margin, and not just the Senate but 404 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: the House, that so many things can go wrong in this. 405 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: And by the way, we know a top line, we 406 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,719 Speaker 1: have very few details on what's included there, and I 407 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: have to say I have some empathy for these Congress people. 408 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: This is because they were supposed to do this September thirtieth. 409 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 1: They pushed it to the sixteenth, now to the three. 410 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: Potentially they're gonna be pushing a four thousand page plus 411 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: build down. These people's throw right at the height of 412 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,199 Speaker 1: the holiday season, sound like Kevin McCarthy. Nobody's gonna read it, 413 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: and they're gonna have to push it through. But I 414 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 1: ask you the same question I'd like to ask, is 415 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: this any way to run a household or a government? 416 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: Uh so, I well, let's talk about the speakership here, 417 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: because my goodness, it just it keeps on coming. And 418 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: he doesn't have the votes yet. He was asked about 419 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: it the day and well he didn't like being asked 420 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: of the Freedom Caucus, but the votes just on their 421 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 1: life been so hard to have you spend any time 422 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 1: with my conference, But I mean, do you know what's 423 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 1: amazing to me here we are with one of the 424 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 1: biggest things going on on the spending that I can 425 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: always count on you for the most inappropriate question. But 426 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: the next question, yes, okay, so we're not going to 427 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 1: answer that, But it was a story of The New 428 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: York Times today Rick. Despite Trump's lobbying, McCarthy's speaker bid 429 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: remains imperiled. Donald Trump's actually picking up the phone now 430 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: calling members of the Freedom Caucus on his behalf. Will 431 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: it help? You know, Look, it's gonna have to help, 432 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: because without you know, at least one of them, the 433 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: four holdouts Biggs, gats Good, Norman and Rosendale, one of 434 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: those has got a break to get to to eighteen. 435 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: And and I would have put money, you know, like 436 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: a Vegas venture on on Rosedale, But I would have 437 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: thought he'd be the one that could flip. But he 438 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: hadn't flipped yet. And and now McCarthy's like, do you 439 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: really want you know, you group? You know, he's laying 440 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: it on him. Are you guys going to be the 441 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 1: ones that stand in the way of this majority and 442 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: taking power? And like as if he's the only one 443 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: who can make that happen. Um again, he's benefiting from 444 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: the fact that there is not a announced candidate other 445 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: than Biggs, who won't get any more than those five votes. Uh, 446 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 1: But he's he's he every day that he doesn't lock 447 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: that to eighteen up, he's at risk of someone putting 448 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 1: their hat in the ring and really screwed up. Well, 449 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 1: is this as simple as the rules here? They want 450 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: to have the ability to have a new speaker or 451 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 1: fire the speaker whenever they wanted it. I mean, is 452 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 1: there anything he can actually do rick for these Republicans 453 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,679 Speaker 1: who were holdouts only momentarily right, he's no favorite. The 454 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: reality is he could agree to everything they want, and 455 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: they're going to change your mind, you know, next week 456 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: and the week after that, until this vote is taken 457 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 1: and it's over. Um. So I do think at least 458 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: he's standing up to some of the most egregious requests. 459 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,639 Speaker 1: Uh and and and and basically said, who wants to 460 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: be speaker? If we have these rules? Uh and he'd 461 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: be right. So I do think that's the balancing act 462 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,880 Speaker 1: he's gonna have. And maybe there's you know, maybe there's 463 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 1: a pony that you gotta dig really deep to find here. 464 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: But uh, you know, we'll see if he can he 465 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,680 Speaker 1: can go home for Christmas and find a gift under 466 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: his tree with one of these guys calling him up 467 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: saying I'm in wow. We Donald Trump calls him Mike Kevin, 468 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: Do you see that, Genie? Mike Kevin. I need you 469 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: to vote for Mike Kevin, but he's not getting yes. 470 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: Is if Donald Trump can't twist the arm, who can't. 471 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 1: I don't know that the list that Rick just gave 472 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: Biggs gates good. It sounds like a bad law firm. 473 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 1: I don't know if anybody wants to be a part 474 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: of that group. But no, you know, listen to look 475 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 1: at the look at the latest polls. You know, Donald 476 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 1: Trump said, you know, star is falling fast. I don't 477 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 1: know if Mike Kevin is going to help him. But 478 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: the reality is is these five want nothing except Kevin 479 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,439 Speaker 1: McCarthy's head. That's all they want. So there's nothing to 480 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,719 Speaker 1: trade except if he decides not to run for speaker. 481 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 1: And so that's the problem he has. Maybe one of 482 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: them comes through. I think he is going to cave 483 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: on everything, and you know, then even the best case 484 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 1: scenario is for him, the worst case scenario. He becomes speaker, 485 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: and he is going to be the weakest speaker we've 486 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 1: seen in modern history, and he will probably be out 487 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: very very quickly. It's a job he should not want, 488 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: but is desperate to get Speaker. Andy Biggs, Rick Davis, Yeah, 489 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: I don't hold your breath. I'm not gonna happen, right, 490 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 1: gonna Steve Scalise, Jennie, are you still going there? I? 491 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: I think Steve Scalise is. He's like, you know, that's 492 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 1: where you want to be. You want to be sort 493 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: of the shiny person standing behind waiting to just pick 494 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 1: everything up. Just you know, look at what happened over 495 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: in England. That that's you know, for for prime minister. 496 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 1: I think that's what we're heading to. Well, I mean, 497 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 1: I don't know how much of an influence Donald Trump 498 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: will have on this, but would he back someone else? 499 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: Do you think? Rick? Oh? I think ultimately Donald Trump, 500 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 1: as as Jennie pointed out, he's losing a lot of 501 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,159 Speaker 1: his cash a and he's going to be one of 502 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:07,160 Speaker 1: these guys you know he'll throw He'll throw sadly um 503 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 1: um McCarthy under the bus so fast it'll make your 504 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: head spin because he wants to align with the winner. 505 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: So if somebody were to emerge, Donald Trump's all in. Yeah, 506 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,199 Speaker 1: unless they went out of the house. You know, you 507 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: can't pick anybody to be speaker. And if if they 508 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,439 Speaker 1: went to Cheney, I think that's the one need to 509 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: post about that boy, what a conversation here, Rick Davis, 510 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 1: Jeannie Chanzano standby. They'll be back with some final thoughts here. 511 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 1: It is unclear, by the way, according to that story 512 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 1: in the New York Times, whether Kevin McCarthy enlisted Donald 513 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 1: Trump to help, where if Donald Trump was simply working 514 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: on his own. We all think back to the photograph, 515 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 1: the first visit tomorrow lago following January six, and the 516 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 1: just the links to which Kevin McCarthy went to be 517 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 1: in his good graces, and I guess it's it's coming 518 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: back now, but my goodness reminding as well, when Nancy 519 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 1: Pelosi found herself about a dozen votes short and tween 520 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 1: of what she would need to secure the gavel, she 521 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: methodically cut deals to capture exactly enough support to prevail. 522 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: And that could still, I suppose happened. Wherever it goes 523 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 1: from here, there will be granular coverage here on this program, 524 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: because that's what we do. As we walk out together 525 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: on the fastest hour in politics. You're listening to Bloomberg 526 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's been 527 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 1: a tough run for Crypto this week in Congress. Lot 528 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: of criticism, some of it less than informed, which means 529 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: the whole thing just runs wild. Not just the fraud 530 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: of course, the alleged fraud and now bankruptcy of f 531 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: t X, the arrest of Sam Bankman freed, but just 532 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: you know, the whole thing. It was the Senate side today, 533 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 1: the Senate's turn after the big House hearing yesterday with 534 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,119 Speaker 1: John Ray the Third, the current Chief Executive Officer, was 535 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 1: tasked with figuring out what the heck went wrong. End 536 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 1: up being the star witness yesterday. There were others today. 537 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,640 Speaker 1: The chair of the panel, Senator Shared Brown, making money 538 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: and crypto seems so easy, too easy. Every crypto token 539 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 1: could double or triple and value in a matter of 540 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 1: hours or days. It didn't matter if it was created 541 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: with vague details or as a joke. Money still poured in. 542 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 1: No one's laughing now, No one's laughing now. But we 543 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 1: got into this a little bit yesterday. Pat Toomey put 544 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 1: his finger on it. Today the ranking member Republican Senator 545 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 1: Pat Toomey asking colleagues to separate f t X from 546 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,199 Speaker 1: the legitimate innovations in the digital asset markets. And this 547 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: is the big question we're trying to ask here, does 548 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 1: an f t X story. This is an SPF story. 549 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 1: There's a crypto story. Here's Pat Toomey code committed no crime. 550 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: F t X and cryptocurrencies are not the same thing. 551 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: F t X was opaque, centralized, and dishonest. Cryptocurrencies usually 552 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: are open source, decentralized, and transparent. This is where we 553 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: bring in Ari Redboard, the head of Legal and Government 554 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,919 Speaker 1: Affairs at t RM, lab's former senior advisor to the 555 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,960 Speaker 1: Deputy Secretary under Secretary for Terror and Financial Intelligence at 556 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 1: the U. S. Treasury. He knows what he's talking about. 557 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 1: Are a welcome, It's great to have you. What's your 558 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: take on this question? Here? Is this a company story, 559 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,360 Speaker 1: this is a crypto story. You know, I very much 560 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 1: agree with sort of much of what Senator to me said, 561 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: And um, you know it's really not a cryptocurrency story. Um. 562 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,199 Speaker 1: You know this story is as old as time. Right, 563 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: It's about corporate mauthfeasance. Uh, It's about really more about 564 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 1: a traditional centralized, you know, financial institution that had corporate mouthfeasance, 565 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 1: that had a lack of good governance, that had didn't 566 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 1: have a board in place to deal with mismanagement. Uh. 567 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: This is this is more akin to a Lehman or 568 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: an end Ron than really sort of the cryptocurrency space. 569 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: I think. As centator to me said, you know, look, 570 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: the promise of cryptocurrency and the technology itself is actually 571 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: to provide more visibility, right, you know, open block chains 572 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 1: where crypto lives and moves actually allows for tracing and 573 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 1: tracking allows for regulators to actually have visibility on financial flows. 574 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: So really it is very much or the opposite. But 575 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: obviously because ft X was engaged in the business of 576 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: custoding and trading crypto assets. Uh, you know this, this 577 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: conversation has been very much about cryptocurrency. Of all people 578 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 1: to show up today, Kevin O'Leary, the shark, thank guy, 579 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 1: Mr Wonderful was he spokes a paid spokesperson for f 580 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 1: t X. He used to talk about his access to 581 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: Sam bankman free. He did it again today as well. 582 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 1: But he so, you know, you have to take this 583 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: for what it's worth. And he's definitely a pro crypto guy. 584 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: He says, this is part of the process. Are these 585 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 1: are the growing pains? Lesten to how he put it, 586 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 1: I'm only one of many investors had experienced this loss. However, 587 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,959 Speaker 1: this changes nothing in terms of the centil of crypto. 588 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: In fact, the recent collapse of crypto companies has a 589 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 1: silver lining. This nascent industry is culling. It's heard going 590 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 1: or gone. Are the inexperienced or incompetent managers, weak business 591 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: models and rogue unregulated operators a little bit of a 592 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 1: wild West view on things. Sorry, I don't know if 593 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: that's calling the herd is safer investors, but is he 594 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 1: essentially saying the same thing. Look, I think start of 595 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 1: saying a little bit differently here. We're very much in 596 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 1: early days of the space, and it's early days when 597 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 1: it comes to regulating this space as well. And sort 598 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,800 Speaker 1: of look, f t X, as I mentioned earlier, really 599 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,560 Speaker 1: is more akin to a traditional financial institution. None of 600 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 1: the fraud here occurred on blockchains. Um, this is this 601 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: is not sort of a cryptocurrency or a decentralized protocol, 602 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 1: a truly decentralized entity. Um. You know. But that doesn't 603 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 1: mean that there's not a need for regulatory clarity in space. 604 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: And I think I'm hopeful, and I think business and 605 00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 1: financial institutions and investors and consumers are hopeful that there 606 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: will be more regulatory clarity definitions in the space so 607 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 1: people feel more comfortable engaging. But in terms of f 608 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 1: t X, that should not be the driver of this, 609 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 1: because again, we have laws on the books today to 610 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 1: handle an FDx situation, right, criminal and civil fraud statutes, 611 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: we have money transmitter licenses in every state, uh and 612 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: and we have consumer and investor protection laws those protect 613 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 1: against an f t X. And one thing that's really 614 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 1: important to remember in the f t X context specifically 615 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 1: is this f t X Global was not a US 616 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 1: based business that was necessarily susceptible to sort of U 617 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: S law and regulation. Right, this was a Bohamian entity. 618 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: I think it's really important to sort of point that 619 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 1: out that we have laws in place in the US 620 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: to stop this type of thing. But this couldn't happen 621 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 1: that a traditional bank in New York City is the 622 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,479 Speaker 1: point here, right, you know it you know you know 623 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 1: it has it certainly has some sort of you know 624 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 1: in the in the in the two thousand eight sort 625 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 1: of financial crisis, we were seeing all kinds of different things. 626 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 1: We saw accounting fraud at major you know, US institutions 627 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 1: like Enron and World in other places in the early 628 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 1: two thousands and and Sam bankman Freed at this point 629 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 1: could have pushed it that far already to to actually 630 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 1: get to to lose this many billions of dollars before 631 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: somebody noticed. It's it's it's truly extraordinary, certainly when you're 632 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: looking at all the investment that was in a company 633 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 1: like this and the sort of lack of due diligence. 634 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: But the reality is that, like you know, we have 635 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 1: had corporate malfeasance. Uh. And I think what we're seeing 636 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 1: right now is the process. We're seeing a bankrupt superseding, 637 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: we're seeing criminal and civil court proceedings, and we're seeing 638 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 1: what sort of usually happens in that context. Um, there's 639 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: no question that we need sort of more regulatory clarity 640 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 1: in the crypto space. But I'm not sure or necessarily 641 00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: should be the driver of that, because we have laws 642 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: in place today to deal with that. Are Redboard of 643 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: t r M Labs are thank you for the expertise. 644 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 1: Let's assemble the panel real quick for for this one here, 645 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,720 Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano. Rick, it seems to me 646 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 1: the secret Sauce and Cynthia Lamm has talked about this. 647 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 1: The senator who's so closely tied to crypto, and she's 648 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: up with a bill with Kirston Gillibrand to regulate crypto. Essentially, 649 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 1: it's it's determining what is the security and what is 650 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: the commodity and then applying the existing rules. Is it 651 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 1: Is it not that simple? Well, I think what we 652 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: learned from today's hearing not only is it probably little 653 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 1: more complicated than that. I mean that was sort of 654 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: what Ben mackenzie was trying to say, you know, is 655 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 1: it a duck or is it a swan? And and 656 00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 1: and so I think everybody else on the committee, certainly 657 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:31,800 Speaker 1: that Kevin O'Leary, were really hesitant to be that simplistic 658 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 1: in their discussion of it. And I do think the 659 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: point you were just making, you know, about how they 660 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 1: separated the blockchain out and tried not to be critical 661 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 1: of the blockchain as a vehicle that all this kind 662 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 1: of financial activity rides on it was I thought it 663 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 1: very interesting differentiator for the committee. Everyone seemed to agree 664 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 1: that that they're not trying to find a way to 665 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 1: regulate blockchain, they're trying to find right regulate things that 666 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 1: are on it. And um, and so I don't think 667 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 1: there's unanimity on that committee. I mean, like every single 668 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 1: center that I watch asked questions had a kind of 669 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: a different take on it. Mark Warner was different than 670 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: than than Loomas Loomis is a little bit different than 671 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 1: to me obviously, And and so I think that committee 672 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,359 Speaker 1: has got to get their head together and figure out 673 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 1: what their point of view is going to be on this. Ok, 674 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,839 Speaker 1: just just in our remaining moment here, Jeannie, can something 675 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,400 Speaker 1: happen legislatively in this new Congress? I think it's going 676 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 1: to be very hard. I do think there is some will, 677 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 1: but to Rick's point, there's not agreement. And by the way, 678 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 1: who regulates the FEC, the CFTC. We can't even get 679 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,759 Speaker 1: that straight, let alone start writing legislation. It's going to 680 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 1: be a real uphill battle, it sure is. It's complex stuff, 681 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 1: and we're not done talking about it here. Rick Davis 682 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,760 Speaker 1: and Jeannie Chanzana with some final thoughts ahead. As Rihanna 683 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,839 Speaker 1: is invoked on the House floor, we'll sing together. I'm 684 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. 685 00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:03,319 Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bluebird Radio. So 686 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,920 Speaker 1: at least the government will not be shutting down tomorrow. 687 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 1: At least that's what we're going to tell ourselves. No, 688 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 1: they've got a continuing resolution to solve that. The question 689 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,440 Speaker 1: is what happens when we get to the twenty three December. 690 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,400 Speaker 1: We think we've got a plan, right, We're feeling pretty 691 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 1: good about it as we reassemble the panel for some 692 00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 1: final thoughts here, Rick Davis and Jennie Chanzanou knowing Genie 693 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,680 Speaker 1: that you actually have some concerns. It wouldn't be for 694 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: a potential shutdown, I'm assuming, right, because unless that's being 695 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: used as a political tool, and we go rolling into 696 00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 1: the holidays here, they'll have a couple of days to 697 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,839 Speaker 1: save this if if they don't meet the deadline. Though 698 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,760 Speaker 1: at this point I am still optimistic. You know. Here's 699 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,480 Speaker 1: why it's in everybody's interest, including Kevin McCarthy. Whatever he 700 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,880 Speaker 1: says publicly to get this done. The last thing he 701 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 1: needs if he's going to be speaker is this hanging 702 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 1: over his head. But of course publicly he needs to 703 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,240 Speaker 1: say this because he doesn't have the votes to be speakers. 704 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 1: So my guess is it does get done, but I 705 00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 1: think it is, you know, not going to be probably 706 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: as smooth as we may expect. You know, it could 707 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,359 Speaker 1: take you know, four or five days to just get 708 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 1: through the Senate because they're gonna need unanimous consent or 709 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: they're gonna need sixty votes. At some point along this process. 710 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: They'll get them, but it's going to be an uphill battle. 711 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 1: To a certain extent. What gets attached to this, uh, 712 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 1: this omnibus rick is is this open season or are 713 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 1: they going to try to keep this essentially within the 714 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,799 Speaker 1: realm of what we're already aware of. Yeah, it's hard 715 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 1: to tell. I mean, there are still some things like, um, um, 716 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 1: you know, the the voting reform bill that's been sort 717 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:38,439 Speaker 1: of like looking for some way to get pastoral count 718 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 1: lictoral count package and uh, and so I sure some 719 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 1: of those things could write on this, but it's pretty clean, um, 720 00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 1: you know, based on just the appropriations bills that are there, so, uh, 721 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,359 Speaker 1: they haven't treated up yet and I'm sure the rule 722 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,040 Speaker 1: they're gonna put on it is gonna be pretty restrictive. Yeah, 723 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 1: it's interesting to see what was not attached at the 724 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 1: last minute here. It appears that the Safe Banking Act, 725 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 1: the Marijuana Transactions Bill to protect marijuana businesses will not 726 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,200 Speaker 1: be in there. According to Senator John Thune, Jeanie is 727 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:13,439 Speaker 1: well doubtful that Joe Mansion's UH Energy Permitting Regulations bill 728 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 1: will be attached as well. Yeah, that's also likely to 729 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 1: be out. Also, the Extended Child Tax Credit, which Democrats 730 00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: have been pushing for, it likely to be out. So 731 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 1: they're dropping a lot. But just imagine they get billions 732 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 1: if they get billions of aid into Ukraine, and they 733 00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,160 Speaker 1: rewrite the Electoral count Act, those are two big winds 734 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 1: for both. I think Congress in the nation as a whole, 735 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,800 Speaker 1: and certainly the Biden and are within the realm of 736 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 1: possibility right as opposed to I don't know what they 737 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,399 Speaker 1: do with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. But Congressman Sean 738 00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 1: Caston is back at it. You know, the Firk guy 739 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: who we did Firke's giving last year. He's back on 740 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:51,360 Speaker 1: the floor of the House invoking Rihanna. This time, it 741 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,560 Speaker 1: is my duty to once again remind the legislative branch 742 00:37:55,120 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 1: of our desperate need to firk Firkirk calling for UH. 743 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 1: He fully funded Firk to get a full staff and 744 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 1: confirm a new commissioner. Does he get what he's asking for? Rick? 745 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 1: I hope so, just so this tune will go away 746 00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:19,040 Speaker 1: for posterity. Does it help when you're invoking Rihanna on 747 00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,359 Speaker 1: the floor, Jennie, I'm not sure it does. How can 748 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:25,120 Speaker 1: it hurt? Joe Matthew, I don't Rihanna with Drake come on, 749 00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 1: and you know they need to get Richard click. They 750 00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,359 Speaker 1: need to get Richard click, you know, pushed through there, 751 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,440 Speaker 1: and I think if they do. I looked this up 752 00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,399 Speaker 1: her number one song according to Rolling Stone, we found love. 753 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,759 Speaker 1: You may just get to hear cast and do that 754 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,799 Speaker 1: on the floor, we hope. Wow, alright, God, this is great. 755 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,520 Speaker 1: We thought we'd help him out a little bit. It's 756 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,400 Speaker 1: a little help from Rihanna this time. What we do? 757 00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,200 Speaker 1: You know? It is my duty to once again remind 758 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:53,000 Speaker 1: the legislative branch of our desperate need to ferk Firkirk 759 00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:57,719 Speaker 1: firkirk work work work work work, work, work, work work 760 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 1: work work work change. His urgent capital markets are mobilizing 761 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:06,320 Speaker 1: in response to the Inflation Reduction Act. He nails, this 762 00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,120 Speaker 1: is no time to have us lurking to be blunt. 763 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,360 Speaker 1: Mr Cheryl, I do not like it, and you know 764 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 1: I've dealt with it the nicest, but this delay is 765 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:20,439 Speaker 1: no righteous and now we're in a crist I feel 766 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:25,320 Speaker 1: like he's some credit for that. To the Democrat from Illinois, 767 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:32,080 Speaker 1: Shawn Caston, for for for for I'll meet you back 768 00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 1: here tomorrow with apologies to Rihanna and the panel, Rick 769 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:41,200 Speaker 1: and Jeannie. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, and this is 770 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:41,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg