WEBVTT - No Plausible Legal Grounds To Contest Election: Levitt 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.880 and on Bloomberg dot com. We are still counting ballots 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:25.120 in a handful of key states. The question after that 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:30.040 becomes what legal challenges could and maybe raised, if any. 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:32.360 To get some color to there, we welcome Justin Levitt. 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:36.280 He is professor of constitutional law at Loyal Law School 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.040 based in Los Angeles. Justin, thanks so much for joining 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:41.560 us here. Let's assume we get through the next couple 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:44.360 of days and this is really a close one, But 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.240 what are some of the legal challenges if former Vice 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:52.640 President Biden were to win that a President Trump could raise. 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.720 I don't really think there are any, at least none 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:59.600 that we've seen so far. In order to braise illegal challenge, 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:01.160 in order to go to the courts, you need to 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:05.360 have some plausible fact scenario that shows a violation of 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:09.160 the statutes or violation of the Constitution, and the good 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:12.200 news in a couple of ways. Is it. We got 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.680 done fighting about most of these things months ago. There 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.600 were a record number of lawsuits this summer and fall 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:20.120 that helped resolve a lot of the issues that would 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:24.320 otherwise be contested. And beyond that, yesterday, the election day 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.440 voting was pretty smooth in most of the country. So 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:31.560 there really isn't anything we know of now that any 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:36.240 sort of legal grounds two protest or contest whatever the 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.240 final count is. We're still waiting on the final account. 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.440 We've got to be patient. Um, But a couple of 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:42.600 days from now, as you suggested, we'll know what that 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.200 final count is, and it doesn't look like there are 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:47.760 any legal grounds to challenge it at this point. But 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:50.640 that's pretty phenomenal. If you're working for the tomp campaign, 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:53.280 would you say the same thing, though, So I was 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:55.120 working for the Trump campaign, I would do what they've 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.080 been doing for really five years before the president went 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.480 office the first time and make some wild claims about 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:05.440 action the courts to destabilize and de legitimize the election results. 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:08.639 That's in fact what we found from the president last night, 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:12.839 declaring victory completely false. Um. Not something he gets to do. 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:17.720 And uh so I might well bluster, I might well 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:22.520 file lots of things. Um, I might well make a 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.960 lot of the hand that I'm dealt in the media, 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:28.880 But I don't know that I would actually see any 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.799 legal path to do anything other than that. Uh, just 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:38.040 to take us back to two thousand, Bush Gore Florida, 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:40.919 could we have something like that? What was the basis there? 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.240 Just refresh our memory, and could we have something along 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.320 those lines this time? Sure? I think the only way 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:48.040 you're going to have something like that line is when 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.960 the counting is done. If the counting is five thirty 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.520 seven votes apartists, if Trump and Biden are separated by 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:58.840 five seven votes, as Bush and Gore were in Florida 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:02.600 in two thousands, then yes, you could well see litigation. 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:06.760 And the question is and over what's it's really about? Everything? 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:11.040 So in Florida, there were, as we all remember, problems 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.760 with hanging Chad's punching through punch card ballots in a 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:17.480 way that left it ambiguous about who you were voting for. 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.440 But there were also other problems with ballot design. There 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:23.239 were problems with mail ballots or problems with military ballots, 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.239 their problems with registration, their problems with purges, their problems 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:28.919 with lines, on and on and on and on and on, 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:31.720 the election of Florida was a mess, and the margin 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.360 of error was far larger than the margin of victory, 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:39.240 which is to say, seven votes close everything matters. It's 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.440 unlikely that any of the states at this time around 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.200 you're going to be that close. It's not impossible, but unlikely. 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:47.840 Um And if the election is ten thousand votes apart 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:50.480 or twenty thousand votes apart, even though that's a fraction 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:53.880 of a percent, that's not the sort of ground tickets 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:57.880 overturned in litigation. The election two sixteen was a fraction 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.400 of a percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania was Hanson in 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:04.240 New Hampshire, but that was still way too much of 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:07.600 a lead to overcome via any sort of litigation, And 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:09.480 I think that's more likely to be the case this 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.200 time around. I don't know who's going to end up 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:15.360 on top, but unless it's seven votes close, I think 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:17.600 the people will decide the selection and not the courts. 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:21.360 It seems ripe for an extraordinarily sharp mind to come 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.720 up with something new. Is that possible? Do you think 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:28.520 justin that that some flipper snapper out there will come 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:31.520 up with some grounds to see somebody on and set 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:36.520 a new precedent. It's always possible, but again it's really 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:41.279 not likely. Law isn't magic. It's a dispute resolution mechanism. 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:43.960 It exists in order to resolve a complaint that we 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:47.200 have based on the way the rules are applied, and 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:51.560 it's not like magically conjuring a spell reversus a result. 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:53.840 There has to be something that you can point to 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:58.520 that is a demonstrable problem that violates the current law. Well, 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.400 what about ballots a riving after a certain point? Is 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:05.640 there the possibility that you could find something to dispute there? 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.680 There is, although I don't know that the results are 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:11.640 going to turn on that. I think we're going to 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.240 have results that clarify when or one way or another, 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:19.240 even without counting uh those ballots. The only place in 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:22.720 which there's a legal dispute over ballots arriving late are 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:27.360 places where that deadline changed, places like Pennsylvania or North 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:32.680 Carolina or Minnesota. There were changes based on changes in 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:36.000 state law to what that deadline is. By the way, 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:38.960 all ballots in those states essentially have to be cast 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:41.360 by election day, So we're really just waiting for the 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.720 ballots to come in rather than worrying about anybody casting 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:49.600 a ballot. Now, Um, there's a small window of potential 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:54.000 fighting or discrepancy over those balances. Ballots that were didn't 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:57.159 arise by election day in those states, but that arrived 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:59.720 a couple of days later if they were cast earlier. 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:01.400 But I think that's going to end up being a 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.960 rather small number of votes, and I don't think it's 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:06.880 going to be enough to close whatever margin we have. Again, 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:09.120 I don't want to suggest that I know what the 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:12.040 answer is going to be, but the states that we've 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:16.960 seen so far have been close, but not that close. Um, 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:18.520 I don't think there'll be enough balance to make up 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:22.320 the difference. So, Professor, we we know Donald Trump's history 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:25.760 way before the he became president is that he is 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:29.480 very litigious. So I think a fair assumption would be 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:32.279 that he in fact will try to avail himself of 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:35.400 the courts here. If he does, what is the kind 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:40.120 of timing that we should be thinking about. Yeah, no question, 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:42.440 he is that, you justis. He has been liturgists. That's 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:45.320 decades long. That's not just as a political figure, but 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:49.880 it's certainly continued since he's been President. UM, a lawsuit 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:54.640 without provable facts of a statutory or constitutional violation is 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:58.039 just a tweet with a filing fee, and so I 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.000 think you can expect lots of those tweet with filing keys. 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:05.080 I would expect lawsuits to be filed, maybe as soon 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:08.080 as today. UM. There are still a few that are 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:11.920 lingering again on more minor issues with relatively few ballots 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:14.720 at stake. You might see new litigation file today or 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:17.679 tomorrow or over the coming days. I don't think any 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.680 of those are going to impact the process. If you're 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.440 looking for something that might maybe sort of kind of 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.000 possibly impact the process, I think we'll really know what 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:30.520 that is after we get the initial count, which means 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.640 next week or the week after. But I don't really 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:37.320 see any big dispute large enough to question those results. 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.040 So expect the lawsuits to be filed. I don't expect 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:42.840 them to work. So I know you're a constitutional lawyer, 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:44.800 but I can I'll ask your question. If you don't 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:46.640 want to answer is, or if you feel like it's 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:49.360 it's not your expertise or what have you, then then 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:54.720 find just pass you know, say Joe Biden wins right, 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:57.440 because right now is maybe looking as sliver more likely 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:00.400 that that he wins, but that the Senate remains publican 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.520 are we looking at the end of major changes like, 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:08.400 for example, the filibuster or uh, you know, changing the 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:12.240 makeup of the Supreme Court or what have you. If 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:15.680 it's a split government, does does that not even enter 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:18.760 into the picture. If it's split government, it's going to 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:23.120 be very hard to change the composition of anything. UM. Courts, 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:28.520 the rest of government, procedure, agencies, etcetera. UM, as the 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:31.720 president has discovered, there's there's not all that much you 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:36.000 can do through the executive power alone. UM. Combination of 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:38.440 one chamber of Congress and the courts will generally put 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:41.000 a stop to most of that, not all the most 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:45.080 of it. UM. You talked about about rules like Senate procedure, 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:49.959 like changes to the filibuster, that's always possible. UM. I 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:55.000 honestly don't know whether if the Senate should change hands 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:57.240 or if it should remain in Republican hands, whether either 0:08:57.320 --> 0:09:01.640 party will have any interest in eliminating the cilbuster. A 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:05.640 lot depends on whether there's unified government or not. If 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:08.560 Joe Biden ends up winning the presidency, And as we said, 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.520 we just don't know yet give it a couple of days. Um. 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:17.440 If the Senate does become democratic, they'll be much more interesting. 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:19.440 I think in the Democrats side on ending the celebuster, 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.520 and that's something they can do on their op It's 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.720 just a question whether they're gonna want to. Professor, what 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.520 do you make of this Supreme Court? Obviously six to 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:31.960 three here? Uh, conservative? I guess. How do you expect 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.400 the Supreme Court is going to rule going forward? Do you 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:37.120 you have any we have any indications. I think they're 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:39.439 going to be a very conservative court generally, there's a 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:42.120 little doubt of that. That's exactly what President Trump promised, 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:46.760 and in that respect he has indeed delivered. Um. I 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.920 don't know, uh, And I don't think they're going to 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.720 really have the opportunity or desire to weigh in on 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.920 this election. UM. I think there are lots of issues 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:02.000 to justices think of themselves as above individual party politics. 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:04.400 They're they're on the court for life. They don't need 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:07.120 an individual presidential fight. So despite the fact that the 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:11.240 President keeps calling on his justices to save him, I 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:15.480 don't think they're interested in doing that. UM. I think 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:20.440 that they're likely to be a very conservative block, and 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:22.439 how they choose to exercise that power is going to 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:24.679 be up to the individual issue confronting them. It's not 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:30.120 always going to be a conservative outcome in every case. Um. 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.960 In fact, on some hot button issues, I think they 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:36.120 might prefer to go slowly rather than go quickly. I 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:39.440 think you'll see the Chief Justice, who is currently in 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:43.120 the media and Justice, remains quite powerful on the court. 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:47.080 But I think it's also likely that the media and Justice, 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.080 which is not the same moderate Um, it's quite conservative court, 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.720 will become either justice. Course, it's your justice, Kabina, depending 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:57.480 on the particular issue. It's say, Professor, what would your 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:01.360 students at Loyola or indeed other little schools be looking 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.320 at specifically today? What kinds of questions will they be 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.800 debating amongst themselves? Well, most of them will be doom 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:12.160 scrolling through various social media feeds, I'm sure, um, and 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:15.800 or hitting refresh repeatedly on the websites of choice. Um. 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.960 There's a lot of anxiety out there, and I understand 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.280 that anxiety has been the year of anxiety, not just 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:26.559 in America but globally. UM. And it's reflected in this 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:32.280 so far uncertainty about the electoral outcome. I'm sure that 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:35.400 people will be paying attention, probably more than they should frankly, 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.400 to new lawsuits that are filed. There's a lot of 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:41.360 wild speculation about where those could go. As mentioned, I 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:45.280 don't think they're going much of anywhere. Um. Really, I 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:48.920 think if they're smart, and I know they're smart, they'll 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.840 be paying more attention to us than to anything else. 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:56.360 And by that I mean, really, the election process is 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.480 up to we, the people we had the chance to 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:03.280 express to ourselves. Votes are mostly in a few more 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.480 trickling in. Um. Now it's up to us to be 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:09.640 patient enough to wait. We have to give the people 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.400 who are counting the ballots time to do their job, 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:15.120 to count the dots, to dot eyes and cross teas, 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:17.520 and when they're making a list, to make sure they 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:22.800 check it twice. And if we give it time to work, UM, 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:26.120 I think that the election process will actually be smoother 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.200 than all of us are anticipating right now. Um, what 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:33.319 comes next is pretty mundane. A lot of local towns 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:37.360 and counties are counting ballot one by one, and I 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.839 have no doubt that my students in the rest of 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:43.120 America will be watching that process really closely. Well it 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:46.640 certainly seems like turnout is massively up in general, and 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.000 we'll know final numbers on that at some point and 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.720 we'll be talking to you in the meantime, and I 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:54.480 wish you the best of luck with your students and 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.400 with all that scrolling and debating it. Justin levet as professor. 0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:01.720 Professor Justin Levitt is professor of Constitutional Law at Loyola 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:07.199 Law School, and our thanks to him. It is time 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.720 to turn back to markets which seemed to be quite 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:12.720 delighted with themselves, at least equity markets at the moment. 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.120 David Ko talk as chairman and chief investment Officer at 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:19.560 the Cumberland Advisors. David, give us an update on liquidity 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.760 because we've seen quite the move and treasuries overnight and 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:26.559 today again quite the move in stocks, you know, I 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.680 mean there are definitely individual stories, um, you know, an 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:33.840 Alzheimer's drug providing some boost to some some of the 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:37.319 healthcare stocks. But in general is this a liquid market. 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:43.559 It's a very liquid market in the large cap Bonnie, 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:48.199 in the growth stocks. I looked right before the interview, Um, 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:53.560 if you looked at the s MP five hundred large 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:57.400 camp and I j R. Which is the t F 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:01.800 for the s MP six hundreds small cap the difference 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:07.280 in performance today was three hundred basis points. So there's liquidity, 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:10.080 it's flowing into the nurse take, it's flowing into the 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:14.840 large cap growth sector, and other parts of the market 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:21.280 seem to be either in disfavor or just ignored. So, David, 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:23.760 there was a lot of discussion, you know, over the 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.640 last several months about when and if investors should think 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.040 about rotating out of some of those big tech names 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.240 that do have the proven top line growth stories into 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:36.160 some of the more cyclical stories that depend upon you know, 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:38.320 us getting to the other side of this pandemic and 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.760 getting to economic recovery. Where are you now here? We 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:46.760 are election a plus one on that thought. Well, we 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:51.280 have taken positions in and we have positions in small 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:57.200 cap and mid cap and um we are leery of 0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:01.160 the intensity of the half of ju stocks that make 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.040 up the fang or how whatever, however you want to 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:09.200 spell the acronym, because we've we're continuing right through today 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.640 to see this bifurcated market. You have the SNP five 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.440 hundred five giants and you have the other four hundred, 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:22.800 and there's a big gap between the two. UM. Last 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:27.600 week in the sell off, we saw sentiment reach real extremes, 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:30.400 so we went to the buy side. So by the 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:34.720 end of last week we're about invested in our US 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:39.200 ets portfolios, which is where we are today. UM, it's 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.880 been great for seventy two hours. If I were to 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.760 tell you anything other than I am very nervous and 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:52.600 leary here, I wouldn't be telling you the truth. David, 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.200 you're in Florida. I'm just curious as to you know, 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:01.400 whether you anticipated the Florida results. Oh, thank you, know, 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.080 thank you. I listened to the interview you just had 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:09.440 with with your colleague about Florida. UM. Florida's that chaotic 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:14.280 place these days. It's the outcomes were strange. We saw 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:21.440 lots of the Hispanic communities, Cuban and Venezuelan and Puerto Rican, 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:28.120 various communities, and how they were surprisingly strong for Trump. 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:32.440 If you were in Florida, you could see the field 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:36.760 work being done by the Trump campaign people. It was 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:41.080 deep here and the intensity of the divide in Florida 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:46.840 is really very alarming. M Vanny. I live here. UM, 0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:50.360 I see two populations, one population of which I'm a 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:54.280 part are older, they're worried about the virus. They wear masks, 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:59.240 they wash their hands, they stay socially distant, they're careful. 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:02.360 There's a lot of us here like that. And there's 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:08.959 another cohort younger um thirties, forties, twenties, and they're on 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.960 the other side. They don't wear mess they don't distance, 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.520 they get sick, they don't care. They think it's like 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.920 a cold. We just had an episode in Delray Beach 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:20.080 on the other coast where there was a march on 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.080 main Street and then to the end of the march 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.480 they had a mask burning event. So we really have 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:30.399 a divided state and the intensity of the division is 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:34.840 alarming to some of us. I'm one of those, David, 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.400 Is it is it regional within the state as well? 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:40.080 Florida such a big state, you know, it's almost like 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.439 their South Florida. Then there's Central Florida North Florida. Is 0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.480 it different that way as well? I think it is 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:50.040 fault And I think not only is it regional uh 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:53.600 north or South or the two coasts in the middle, 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:59.200 but really regional in maybe the metropolitan center. So Miami 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:03.720 is quite different from Tallahassee, from Jacksonville, from Tampa, from 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:07.360 sarah Soota where I am in, down to Naples. So 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.399 you you go to different places in Florida, and it 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:17.520 is it is a micro cosum and they are distinguishable. 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:21.760 And for us in Sarasota, we you know, Cumberland is 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:26.280 now headquartered here, and we're in many states around the country, 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:31.280 but in Florida, we we have clients and relationships from Jacksonville, 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:35.400 a Key West, and from Tampa to Fort Lauderdale. So 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:37.880 we're on the phone or talking to our people all 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.240 the time. And you would think you're in six or 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:45.359 eight or ten different states, not just one. That's incredible, incredible, David, 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:47.800 I'm gonna ask you a question I asked earlier, but 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.240 I'm just fascinated by it is a supposed election trade 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:59.000 yet well, I don't know. We we have we The 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.080 way I think about it is we have a very 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:08.919 unusual transition or not with Trump, who has created a 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:14.720 unique presidential environment after two hundred and twenty years. So 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:19.199 what is Trump and the Trump supporters? They are a 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:24.000 version of a revolution, and a revolution in an early 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:26.479 stage has a lot of energy. To see it in 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:31.000 the rallies, you see it in the expressions of support 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:33.879 for Trump, and you see it in the concern of 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:37.480 others who look at it and get worried about it. 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:42.359 And revolutions have to evolve, and then they have to 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:46.280 get tired and they mature. This is a young revolution. 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.160 How big it is, what it will do to be sustained, 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:56.520 how much of it is idiosyncratic to one unusual political figure, 0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:00.359 remains to be seen. So how we how we deal 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:02.920 with this is a very difficult thing, and from an 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:06.480 investment point of view, from from an economics point of view, 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:12.919 doubly so, because Trump has changed all global trade patterns, 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:19.560 introduced protectionism and tariffs, uprooted agreements with drawn from them. 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:25.720 So the disruption is the easy part. It's the reconstruction 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:29.520 of whatever the new is gonna be. That's the hard part. 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:33.040 We've only seen the disruption and we don't know the 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:36.639 degree of it yet. So we're in a remarkable place. 0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:39.840 I tell my clients and friends we are writing a 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:43.280 history book and we are right in the middle of 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:47.679 the fifth chapter and it's a ten chapter book. So, David, 0:20:47.800 --> 0:20:50.639 if former Vice President Joe Biden were to win the 0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:53.800 White House, what do you think his job one needs 0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:57.639 to be? Well, he would like to be a healer. 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:00.919 He's an old time season politics and he's been in 0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:03.080 the Senate for a long time. He thinks he knows 0:21:03.080 --> 0:21:06.840 how the Senate works. Um, we don't know what the 0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:09.320 Senate is gonna look like exactly, but we know it's 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:11.240 going to be very close. And we also know the 0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:16.160 House didn't expand it doesn't look like it. Pelosi's margin 0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:21.160 is is difficult, it's narrow. So Biden is a politician 0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:27.200 with long skills. Can he accomplish some workable relationship and 0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:30.280 have policy? We know the policy. He wants a climate 0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:33.280 change that's a big issue. He wants an infrastructure bill. 0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:36.040 We've that's a big issue. He's going to raise taxes 0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:40.320 on certain areas of the economy and on wealthy people 0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:44.200 and on corporations. That's an issue. Can he pass them? 0:21:44.280 --> 0:21:46.840 How much can he get through the houses of Congress? 0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:51.879 This is an extraordinary piece. I don't know that anybody 0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:57.600 can forecast trajectories are outcome sitting here today. Yeah, And 0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:00.000 I mean, David, you know the president has a limit 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:03.280 of powers. If you're talking about you know, traditional presidents 0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:05.960 that doesn't sign executive orders all the time, and and 0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:08.560 you know some of those executive orders weren't really even 0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:12.560 you know, in in law. So if it is Joe 0:22:12.600 --> 0:22:17.560 Biden and he treats the presidency as a traditional presidency, 0:22:17.960 --> 0:22:20.920 what at all can he accomplish? Can he even rejoin 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:23.240 the Powers Agreement, for example, that's something we know he 0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:26.800 wants to do. Well, would seemed to me funny he 0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:31.200 can He can reverse executive orders just as easily as 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:37.360 Trump could issue them, and and he can not use them. Also, 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:42.760 it would seem that the country want, or some of 0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:50.880 the country wants, less chaotic governance, more calm, more traditional normalcy, 0:22:50.960 --> 0:22:54.359 and search for it. So Biden has a way to 0:22:54.520 --> 0:23:01.359 deliver it. Whether he can accomplish that remains to be seen. 0:23:01.440 --> 0:23:06.640 But he has his network of people who have governed before, 0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:11.840 and they have the capability and experience to govern, and 0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:15.199 he knows them, and he's comfortable choosing the people to 0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:17.800 work with. In the case of Trump, we didn't have 0:23:17.880 --> 0:23:21.280 a transition team, we didn't form a government. It was 0:23:21.400 --> 0:23:25.480 chaotic from the very beginning, and the turnover has been 0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:29.560 so high, So that would speak in favor of Biden 0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:35.960 being able to have successes progressively, Let's hope. So, Hey, David, 0:23:35.960 --> 0:23:37.840 thank you so much for sharing some of your time 0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:41.200 with us. We really appreciated. David Kotok, he's a chairman 0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:47.560 and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. A risk on 0:23:48.000 --> 0:23:51.159 day today, on election Day plus one, let's get a 0:23:51.240 --> 0:23:53.359 sense of what's driving these markets. We can do that 0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:56.280 with our good friend Danielle di Martino Booth. She's a 0:23:56.359 --> 0:24:00.640 CEO and Director of Intelligence at Quill Intelligence. She's also 0:24:00.680 --> 0:24:03.320 a former advisor at the Dallas Federal Reserve and a 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:07.160 Bloomberg Opinion calumnist. She's based in Dallas, Texas. Daniel thanks 0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:09.240 so much for joining us here. So when you woke 0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:11.800 up this morning you kind of got a look at 0:24:11.840 --> 0:24:14.240 the news feeds. What did you think we were going 0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:17.399 to see in the market today, Well, it was more 0:24:17.440 --> 0:24:19.879 like when I went to sleep this morning, since that 0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:24.080 had a few hours um, you know, it was it 0:24:24.200 --> 0:24:28.679