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Speaker 1: The armstrong and getting showed.

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Speaker 2: What we do have are multiple reports suggesting that they

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Speaker 2: have got him. We know from his radio officials that

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Speaker 2: they have a body someone who appears to be Yajya Sinoa.

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Speaker 2: They have not conducted a DNA test on that body.

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Speaker 3: I think we have to exercise extreme caution. Has been

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Speaker 3: reported killed a number of times over the last more

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Speaker 3: than a year now, since this operation in Gaza has

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Speaker 3: been ongoing. And what we do have for a number

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Speaker 3: of photographs that are circulating online which some people suggest

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Speaker 3: could be him, but again we have absolutely no confirmation there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's him. I think in this case

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Speaker 1: it is him. He is actually dead. I've seen the

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Speaker 1: pictures myself, and you know, I haven't extracted his teeth

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Speaker 1: or anything like that, but I think that Sinwar, the

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Speaker 1: leader of Hamas, is dead. Josh Rogan, who are about

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Speaker 1: to talk to, follows open source intelligence on Twitter, just

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Speaker 1: like we do, and they're reporting that both US and

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Speaker 1: Israeli officials are concerned that the elimination of Sinhwar may

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Speaker 1: lead Hamas to execute the remaining hostages being held in Gaza,

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Speaker 1: which obviously would be horrifying. Josh Rogan is the Global

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Speaker 1: opinions columnist for the Washington Post, and he joins us

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Speaker 1: again on the Armstrong and Getty Show. Josh, what do

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Speaker 1: you think of the latest news?

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, if true one more terrorists off the

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Speaker 4: face of the earth, that's a good thing. You know,

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Speaker 4: this guy psychopaths blood of Americans, the blood of israelis

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Speaker 4: blood of Palestinians all over his hands. So yeah, I

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Speaker 4: think we can take a moment and appreciate the fact

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Speaker 4: that he's no longer breathing. After that, it doesn't seem

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Speaker 4: like this is going to change much. To be honest,

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Speaker 4: the war is going to go on. They'll find some

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Speaker 4: other terrorists to lead a mosque sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 4: It's not likely this will cause a breakthrough in the

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Speaker 4: ceasefire talks because usually when you kill the guy who's

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Speaker 4: in charge of the talks, that slows down the process. Anyway,

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Speaker 4: the Israeli showing no intention of slowing down their new

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Speaker 4: assault in Gaza and in Lebanon. So this is gonna

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Speaker 4: get worse before it gets better.

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Speaker 1: Jacks. I'm always fascinated in this question of killing a

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Speaker 1: leader makes any difference. You know, if you killed Hitler,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't of that made a big difference in the Nazi

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Speaker 1: regime or is that like a particular example like bin

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Speaker 1: Laden that is different with Hamas and Hesblow, where you

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Speaker 1: get rid of one leader and you just get a

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Speaker 1: different one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's important militarily, but not necessarily strategically.

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Speaker 4: Hitler is kind of a different example. I mean, his

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Speaker 4: own generals are trying to kill him. So if he

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Speaker 4: had died, yeah, we could expect a big change in policy.

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Speaker 4: It's not exactly the same thing, but tactically it's a

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Speaker 4: good accomplishment. It keeps the enemy on their toes, disrupts

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Speaker 4: whatever they've got going on. Strategically, again, it's kind of like, okay,

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Speaker 4: well then what And you know, we won every tactical

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Speaker 4: military battle in Iraq and Afghanistan for twenty years and

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Speaker 4: managed to lose both of those wars in a strategic sense.

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Speaker 4: And it's not exactly the same thing, but you could

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Speaker 4: see that informs what's going on with Israel now. They're

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Speaker 4: getting very very good, probably the best at killing terrorists,

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Speaker 4: but does that lead piece of stability? I would like

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Speaker 4: to hear, how you know, I would like to hear

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Speaker 4: the theory of that case.

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Speaker 1: So is it a big deal that we used our

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Speaker 1: big B two bombers to bomb the Houthis yesterday.

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Speaker 4: Uh yeah, well again, escalation, I think this is getting

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Speaker 4: You know, you've got Lebanon, you've got an impending Israeli

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Speaker 4: attack on Iran, a retaliation for the missiccial attack that

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Speaker 4: we're still waiting for. You've got Gaza, and now you've

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Speaker 4: got escalating war. And ye, I mean that's four right there, Syria,

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Speaker 4: that's five. So that's five wars that Israel's in. And

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Speaker 4: if Israel's in them, that means we're in't them. It

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Speaker 4: means our assets are being used. It means our men

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Speaker 4: and women are involved, they're in danger, and we've got

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Speaker 4: men and women all over that region that are in

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Speaker 4: danger right now. So yeah, it's an escalation. And again,

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Speaker 4: if the goal is to restore deterrence, to scare the

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Speaker 4: bad guys is to stop fighting, okay, I can understand that.

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Speaker 4: But okay, is that happening? I don't think so, they

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Speaker 4: don't seems to tred And then what happens the day after?

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Speaker 4: How do you get past this at some point? That's

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Speaker 4: I think what everyone's really struggling to understand.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I didn't actually hear your podcast you're on

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Speaker 1: with David Ignatius. Just how bad would the Middle East get?

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Speaker 1: And I know it's a gas. The story that came

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Speaker 1: out yesterday is Iran or Israel is ready to attack Iran.

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Speaker 1: They are going to attack Iran before the presidential election.

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Speaker 1: How do you see this playing out?

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Speaker 4: Well, depends what the attack is. I mean, Iran fired

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Speaker 4: three hundred pulistig miss is An Israel that that would

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Speaker 4: be dangerous if they didn't respond to that. So they've

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Speaker 4: got to do something. What they hit, how they do it,

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Speaker 4: and whether or not it's sparked another escalatory round of

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Speaker 4: attacks from Iran or Those decisions are all being made

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Speaker 4: by the Israeli government. We don't really know what they are.

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Speaker 4: We won't know until they see the attack. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: this is the problem of an escalation ladder once you

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Speaker 4: get on and it's really hard to get off of it.

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Speaker 4: And you know, we're making a calculation about Iran's deterrence,

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Speaker 4: they're making a calculation about Israel's deterns, and those calculations

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Speaker 4: could be all wrong. They often are, And so in

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Speaker 4: a way, it's just sort of like what we're really

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Speaker 4: contemplating here is the best case scenario is a long

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Speaker 4: medium boil war like that we have this level of violence,

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Speaker 4: are slightly worse for years. That's that seems to be

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Speaker 4: the wow, the positive scenario. The negative scenario is that

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Speaker 4: we escalate into something like a huge regional war, all

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Speaker 4: out war with around or even a nuclear exchange. That's

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Speaker 4: the downside risk.

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Speaker 1: A nuclear exchange between the nuclear exchange between who.

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Speaker 4: Well, Iran is what one to two weeks away from

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Speaker 4: having a nuclear weapon assembled. According to the essence, Israel

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Speaker 4: has about one hundred to two hundred that they don't admit.

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Speaker 4: We've got two thousand Russias. You know, you eventually one

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Speaker 4: of these actors could get desperate enough to use one.

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Speaker 4: It could be the Russians using it in Ukraine because

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Speaker 4: that complex is connected to this one. The Iranians are

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Speaker 4: in Ukraine now, the North Koreans are fighting in Ukraine,

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Speaker 4: and you know, Russia supplying Moss, Russia supplying has Belah.

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Speaker 4: It's this is getting worse, not better. These conflicts are

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Speaker 4: getting more connected, not less. And yeah, that's the slippery

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Speaker 4: slope that we're facing. And yes, the nuclear exchange is

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Speaker 4: absolutely the worst scenario but there are a lot of

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Speaker 4: perfectly terrible scenarios short of.

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Speaker 1: That, right, right, Yeah, And it gets very world warry

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Speaker 1: when you start putting all those pieces together the way

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Speaker 1: you just did. So we talked to I don't know,

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Speaker 1: if you know, go ahead, No, people.

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Speaker 4: Forget that, like World War two didn't pop off in

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Speaker 4: a day. Took about, you know, ten years to really

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Speaker 4: get cooking, you know. And we're into what year three

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Speaker 4: of the Ukraine War and year two of the Israel War.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, it might not be tomorrow, but this is

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Speaker 4: how world wars get going.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And World War One, you know, the psalm and

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Speaker 1: the Germans and the Brits facing each other in France

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Speaker 1: was a lot different than the assassination of Archiduke Ferdinand,

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Speaker 1: but it all fit together exactly. Uh So, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you know Mike Lines. We had him on earlier.

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Speaker 1: He's a military guy. He does a lot of stuff

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Speaker 1: on CNN, and we have him on regularly. He thinks

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Speaker 1: we will that the administration is starting to get more aggressive,

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Speaker 1: letting Israel take the gloves off, and that we will

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Speaker 1: lay the groundwork in Iran by taking out some of

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Speaker 1: their stuff that only we can do. And that and

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Speaker 1: then let Israel do most of the attacking, but that

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Speaker 1: would get US pretty involved. Do you think that's likely?

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Speaker 4: Or no? Yeah, No, I think that's fine. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I don't know. I can get fundamentally wrong in two respects.

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Speaker 4: One is that you know, the I don't think US

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Speaker 4: military asses is going to be used to strike Iran.

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Speaker 4: That's something to a Biden, it's something he's not going

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Speaker 4: to do. And even Donald Trump wouldn't do that. He'll

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Speaker 4: they're perfectly happy to let our allies strike Iran, but

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Speaker 4: using military assets to strike Ron crosses a line that No,

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Speaker 4: I don't think that's and from my sources and ad miners,

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Speaker 4: there's no way that they're going to take that stuff.

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Speaker 4: And secondly, I don't see you know, I guess I

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Speaker 4: agree with Mike. The administration is getting more formissive with

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Speaker 4: the Israelis. But it's not because they're really enthusiastic about it.

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Speaker 4: It's because Biden is a lame duck and the elections

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Speaker 4: coming up and they just don't have anything to do.

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Speaker 4: The ceasefire talks are dead, you know, and they don't

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Speaker 4: want it. They've already sort of lost the Muslim and

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Speaker 4: narrow voters if you're the Harris Walls campaign, so you

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Speaker 4: might as well double down on your support from the

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Speaker 4: pro Israel community. And the politics and the inertia and

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Speaker 4: the basic laziness of a lame duck presidency all add

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Speaker 4: up to just letting Israel do whatever it wants and

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Speaker 4: then pretending. Remember Joe Biden said to the cameras he

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Speaker 4: like bet iSER stopped in Lebanon. He was against it,

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Speaker 4: and then they did it, and when I was just like,

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Speaker 4: oh no, it's a really great idea.

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Speaker 1: Right, you know, they totally reversed it, right, right?

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Speaker 4: So is that them taking an active stance and support

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Speaker 4: of visit. No, No, it's just them following events rather

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Speaker 4: than shaping interesting.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that should take this opportunity to take

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Speaker 1: out their their nuclear facilities best that that can be done.

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Speaker 4: That seems like a pretty risky poin to be honest, Jack, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, take out their nuclear facilities.

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Speaker 4: They got a lot of them. They're they're pretty well hidden,

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Speaker 4: they're pretty well defended. If it doesn't work, then we're

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Speaker 4: we're we're we're in it. You know, you can't attack

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Speaker 4: on one's nuclear program and then not succeed, and you know,

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Speaker 4: it's a really hard target. Plus there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: nuclear stuff at those targets. They could have a pretty

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Speaker 4: bad effect if you blow it up. You know, I'm again,

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Speaker 4: I'm like against degrading Iran. I think that's a good idea,

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Speaker 4: but it's you know, you have to sort of stop

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Speaker 4: for a second and think, Okay, Iran doesn't really want

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Speaker 4: a regional war. It's they've made that pretty clear. We

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Speaker 4: don't want a regional war. Lebanese don't want a regional war.

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Speaker 4: So maybe we can just you know, find a way

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Speaker 4: to back away from the ledge, as we've done before,

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Speaker 4: by the way, several times. Right.

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Speaker 1: But man, that just doesn't feel like that's where things

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Speaker 1: are headed, does it.

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Speaker 4: No, No, it doesn't look good. I can't say it's

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Speaker 4: it's looking that way. Yeah, I have to agree with

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Speaker 4: your assessment that it's looking like things are getting worse,

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Speaker 4: not better. That's that's the pattern. That's if you had

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Speaker 4: to predict, you would have to say things are going

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Speaker 4: to get worse before they get better.

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Speaker 1: And not to just and not just to be the

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Speaker 1: you know, the audio version of doom scrolling. But it

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Speaker 1: isn't China getting more belligerent than they have been with

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Speaker 1: their exercises around Taiwan and what they've been doing to

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Speaker 1: the Navy and the Philippines.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is crazy idea sort of in Washington these

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Speaker 4: days that you might have read in some papers. I

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Speaker 4: want to mention about how sort of like, oh, China's different.

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Speaker 4: You know, Russian around in North Korea. Sure they're aggressive

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Speaker 4: and reckless and want to attack the West and redo,

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Speaker 4: but China is different. They want stability in business. And

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Speaker 4: you know, this is kind of a line that's also

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Speaker 4: promoted by the Chinese government because it masks what they're

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Speaker 4: actually doing, which is taking a much more sophisticated and

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Speaker 4: clever approach to their aggression. They're not you know, bombing hospitals.

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Speaker 4: They're just you know, harassing ships in the South China Sea,

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Speaker 4: doing mock blockades of Taiwan every time the time when

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Speaker 4: he's president dares to open his mouth, and you know,

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Speaker 4: building up the biggest nuclear and missile force, biggest military

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Speaker 4: expansion in history. And that is in a long term sense,

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Speaker 4: much more dangerous and permicious, pernicious and aggressive than even

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Speaker 4: what Russia and Iran and North Korea are doing right now.

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Speaker 4: But because they're doing it slightly more quietly than their allies.

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Speaker 4: We're totally missing it because you know, here we can

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Speaker 4: only sort of follow one, maybe two international crazies at

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Speaker 4: the time.

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Speaker 1: We don't have plus plus the Golden Bachelor's on, so

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Speaker 1: you get that.

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Speaker 4: Exactly. There's a lot going on. People are busy. But

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Speaker 4: the truth is that, like the Chinese garment is very

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Speaker 4: intentional about, you know, wrapping up their aggression in a

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Speaker 4: way that it goes under our radar. That's exactly their strategy,

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Speaker 4: and they have a lot of Americans who help them

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Speaker 4: do it.

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Speaker 1: Josh Rogan is a global opinions columnists for The Washington Post.

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Speaker 1: If you like this sort of stuff, he is a

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Speaker 1: must read all the time, or follow him on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Josh Rogan. Josh, thanks for your time as always

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Speaker 1: any time. Yeah, man, he is I could. I could

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Speaker 1: talk to him all day long. I love. I have

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Speaker 1: like a fantasy of sitting at a bar with him,

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Speaker 1: like late into the night, listening him tell me stuff

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Speaker 1: that he can't say on the radio that he knows. Uh,

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Speaker 1: China's biggest military build up in world history? How about that?

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Speaker 1: Oh my god? Yeah me, you live in exciting Times,

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Speaker 1: which oddly enough is a Chinese expression armstrong Andnghetti