WEBVTT - Operation Hummingbird 0:00:02.040 --> 0:00:04.680 So I'm about to sit and watch the arrest of Lucy. 0:00:04.760 --> 0:00:08.559 Let be it's the first time I've seen it, as 0:00:08.560 --> 0:00:10.959 I don't love to go out of my way to 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:19.919 see people getting arrested. All right, let's see how this goes. 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:26.000 Hello, Lucy, is it hell? I'm please stepan seven? Yeah, 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:26.480 thank you. 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.200 It's six am. 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:32.800 Lucy's wearing a powder blue hoodie matching sweatpants. 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.280 She's letting the officers inside. 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:44.760 Eleven minutes later, it's recording again and we can see 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:47.760 Lucy being led out of the house in handcuffs. 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.479 She looks just shocked. 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:56.520 We're all seeing the same facial expression. But what meaning 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:59.720 are we imbuing to it? Depending on what you feel 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:02.960 about her, you think, oh, she's in shock because she's 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:05.840 being accused of a crime she didn't commit, or she's 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:07.880 in shock because she thinks she was going to get 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.800 away with it. I don't know, Lucy. I do know 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:15.560 that feeling of shock and just helplessness, and how suddenly 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:19.800 you go from being a regular person who has the 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:21.600 ability to just open a door. 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:24.200 Right. 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:30.640 That's something that immediately is triggering for me, is the 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:36.240 memory of suddenly not having access to the world, the 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:39.040 way that a normal person has access to the world, 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:43.399 and now the world is completely changed and shifted around you. 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.760 I remember the actual moment they put handcuffs on me. 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:57.680 They told me that it was a mere formality. It's 0:01:57.760 --> 0:02:04.400 just a bizarre moment of change that you don't really understand, 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:07.280 going from being a free person to a person in custody. 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:11.639 It's there's nothing really that compares to that. It's the ultimate, 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.600 like being rendered small. 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:18.600 I'm just gonna put me in the box seat in 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:19.080 the hair. 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:26.079 Oh, I have to take a seat in that. 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:35.639 Today, watching this, it brings me back to the day 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:39.160 I was arrested. I was so in shock that I 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:44.799 didn't even realize what was happening. It was so unfathomable 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.760 to me that I could be accused that I believed 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:49.880 the police when they told me they were taking me 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:54.720 somewhere for my own protection. Even as the handcuffs clicked 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:59.320 on my wrists, it still didn't click for me. It 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:03.720 wasn't until several days later, after repeatedly crying myself to 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.560 sleep in a prison cell, that I was escorted to 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:09.840 a makeshift courtroom in the prison, where a judge told 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:14.720 me I was accused of murder. Only then did I 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:19.000 finally understand what was happening to me? I don't know 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.639 what Lucy let Be felt the day she was arrested, 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.200 but in the video of her arrest released by the police, 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:27.399 that dazed expression. 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:29.280 It gives me chills. 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:37.080 But for whatever confusion Lucy let Be may have been feeling, 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:42.000 a much more straightforward narrative was starting to emerge in 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:42.560 the media. 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:46.080 A woman who worked at the Countess of Chester Hospital 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:49.200 has been arrested on suspicion of murdering eight babies and 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.640 attempting to murder another six still probably. 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:57.320 As part of the investigation, the Cheshire Police search Lucy's home, 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:01.840 her parents' house, and Lucy's office the hospital. They sees 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:05.560 her diaries, her computer, her phone, and paperwork she has 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:09.520 stashed under her bed. What they find will become key 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:14.279 evidence against Lucy at her trial. One item in particular 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:18.920 seems so damning it could well be irrefutable proof that 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:22.400 Lucy is exactly what the doctors suspect her of being 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:30.680 a serial killer. The next day, Lucy's name and the 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:34.320 accusations against her will make the front page of every 0:04:34.560 --> 0:04:39.560 major newspaper, every news show, and every radio broadcast. 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.039 From this moment on Lucy. 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:48.880 Let Be is a character in her own life story. 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:52.880 This is the moment Lucy loses hold of her own narrative. 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:59.440 I'm Amanda Knox and from Vespucci and iHeart Podcasts. This 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:04.080 is out the Case of Lucy let Be, Episode three, 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:06.080 Operation Hummingbird. 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:15.320 It's been nearly. 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:18.880 Two years since the death of Baby A. Doctors on 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.520 the neonatal unit at the Countess feel like they. 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.359 Are banging their heads against the wall. 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.560 So far, they've had two external reviews and a third 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:32.080 is underway, but still none of the reviews are coming 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:34.240 to the same conclusion as the doctors. 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:38.240 Let's say we've got a problem. The facts are we've 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:41.680 had an increase in death and we think it's her. 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.960 Michelle Warden is a former neonatal nurse at the Countess. 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.119 She never worked with Lucy, but she knew a lot 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:52.200 of the people who did, and she says the doctors 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:57.400 in charge were ready to blame Lucy very early on, from. 0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:01.760 The first moment that they pointed the finger at Lucy. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:06.480 They were not thinking that Lucy had made a clinical 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:12.000 mistake or there'd been an accident. All the way along, 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:16.920 they'd only had on average three deaths a year. They 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:20.680 were definitely considering that this was a malicious act. I 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:25.120 think because they were saying there were so many, I'm saying, oh, 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:26.880 these are unexplained collapses. 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:30.960 Just a side note for those who are not familiar. 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:35.320 In this context, a collapse is a sudden deterioration in 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:39.200 a baby's health, a drop in vital signs, a change 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:46.880 in heart rate, or if they stop breathing. For the doctors, 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:49.960 the sheer number of deaths while Lucy let Be was 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:54.120 on shift are looking like much more than mere coincidence, 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:59.200 and it needed the police. But still none of the 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:04.560 hospital administrators agree, that is until doctor Jayram tells them 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:09.280 a story that, if true, is the first hand account 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:10.880 of attempted murder. 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:15.239 That is a night that is etched on my memory 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.720 and will be in my nightmares forever. 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:25.000 Doctor Jerram tells hospital administrators that two years prior, he 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:29.120 had walked in on Lucy watching a baby nearly suffocate 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:35.080 to death. But a question remains, why didn't he just 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:35.960 call the police. 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:39.080 Then he suddenly came up with this idea that he 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.240 caught her virtually red handed with baby Ka, but he 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.680 didn't document anything in the note, and he didn't tell 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:47.880 anybody for over twelve months now. If you seriously think 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:50.960 you've walked into a nursery where somebody's about to murder 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.600 a baby, you just get in your car and drive 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:54.800 to the police station, wouldn't you. 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.920 After initial conversations with hospital higher ups, the police are 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.640 still skeptical that there even is a case, but after 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:11.440 receiving an email from doctor Jayram, a detective decides to 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:12.480 meet with the doctors. 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:16.720 I met with Stephen Breary and Rabbi Jayream and asked 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.400 them to explain to me, in the very short timescale 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.360 we had, why I should or should not take this 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:23.840 forward to be investigated. 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:29.000 This is a quote from Detective Superintendent Paul Hughes of 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:33.080 the Cheshire Constabulary, read by an actor. It's from an 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:35.800 interview he did on a podcast hosted by the UK 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:37.480 tabloid The Daily Mail. 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.800 Although they are very, very fragile, very delicate babies that 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:46.560 need care, there's no expectation of depth, there's no expectation 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:47.320 of collapse. 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.520 Detective Hughes looks like he could be a character in 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:55.400 a Guy Ritchie movie. He's bald, barrel chested with a 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:59.120 close trimmed beard. He has a kind of Jason Statham 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:03.200 vibe about him. In interviews and press conferences about the case, 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.240 he wears a suit that barely contains him and a 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:11.200 somber expression. During their initial meeting, doctor Breery and doctor 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.439 Jayram tell Detective Hughes that although babies on the unit 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:18.800 are fragile, one thing they don't do is die suddenly. 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:22.960 Of course, it's not like babies never die in a 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:27.960 neonatal unit, but the doctors explain they usually know when 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:31.400 it's going to happen. The doctors go on to explain 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:35.880 just how unusual these deaths were, and Detective Hughes leaves 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:40.920 the encounter convinced there's a case. Here's doctor Jayram during 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:42.640 his ITV interview. 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.840 The very fact that the police, after listening to us 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.600 for less than ten minutes, realize that this is something 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:51.200 that they had to be involved with. To me, speaks 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:53.720 volumes and I could have punch the air. 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:58.880 Finally, the police open an investigation into the deaths at 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:05.160 the Countess and code name it Operation Hummingbird. The following 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:09.760 series of events would forever change the hospital and everyone 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:14.240 on that unit, from staff to parents. A narrative would 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.600 take hold, and there was no going back from here, 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:22.120 this is now a murder case, and at the helm 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:29.920 would be Detective Hughes as senior detective. Here he is again, 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:32.960 this time in a promotional video put out by the 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.360 police themselves. 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.200 What I was presented with was effectively a number of 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:40.040 reports written in medical jargon. 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.400 It's a lot for the detective and his team to 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:47.880 get their heads around, but thankfully the Countess pediatricians are 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:52.080 on hand to answer questions. When I sat down with 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.480 doctor Phil Hammond, I asked him about this moment in 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:56.319 the investigation. 0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.240 I don't like it. In a proper scientific investigation, you'd say, okay, 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:02.040 we're going to get someone independent to look at this. 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:06.480 If you recall, doctor Hammond is a retired doctor and 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:10.800 medical columnist for Private Eye, a popular current affairs magazine 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:13.959 in Britain, and he's written over thirty articles about the 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:14.679 Let Be case. 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:16.600 I think the first thing to say is that doctors 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.920 a human, so with suspect of the same biases and 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:22.599 temptations as everything else. I think the biggest failure in 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:25.040 that is that police allowed the doctors to investigate these 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:26.439 deaths and mark their own homework. 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.600 Doctor Hammond says that it is clear that doctors wanted 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:35.120 the police to see things their way and to ignore 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.199 other issues that were plaguing the unit. 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.200 He tells me about the flurry. 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:43.480 Of emails the seven senior pediatricians from the Countess were 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:47.960 sending each other right as the police investigation was getting 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:48.600 under way. 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:51.280 They're saying, you know, we've got to make sure the 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:53.720 police act on this, and we'll cut this bit out 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:56.319 and here are my suggestions, what are yours? And it's 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.360 clearly they're gaming the information. They actually say, we want 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:01.120 to peak the interest of the police. 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:05.600 Specifically, doctor Jayram writes in one of those emails, quote, 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.920 should we highlight explicitly for these cases that LLL was 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.880 in attendance and in close proximity to the incubators. 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:15.160 This is, after all, the basis of. 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.680 Our concerns, and I think for the police to have 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:19.760 their interest piqued, we need to have that. 0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:22.400 And I think that's just wrong that they shouldn't be 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.680 investigating that they were trusted as doctors. They were the 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:26.800 ones who raised concerns. 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.240 One of the things I've had to wrap my mind 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:35.680 around is that good people make mistakes. The consultants, like 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:40.280 even the doctors who were sort of cherry picking information 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.240 to make it palatable to the police. They were going 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:48.200 off of what seems like a gut feeling and out 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:50.120 of concern for patients. 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:52.800 I think in my interactions with doctor Jerrohm when I 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.319 first started investigating this, he appeared to me to be 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:59.000 very genuine in his beliefs. However, they spun the information 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.079 a removed it's about the baby's being really sick and 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:03.280 then not having enough staff. 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:11.000 Detective Hughes felt the doctor's help was so invaluable that 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:15.320 he would go on to publicly praise their contributions. In 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.439 an interview with The Observer, Hughes is quoted as saying 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:22.840 the doctors were the golden thread of the investigation. But 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:26.640 it wouldn't be accurate or fair to say that detectives 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:31.000 based their entire investigation on the information provided by the doctors. 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:32.760 Far from it. 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:38.360 In fact, Operation Hummingbird doesn't truly kick off until detectives 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:42.560 are introduced to a completely different doctor, a doctor who's 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:46.120 never set foot in the Countess of Chester Hospital, but 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:51.199 one who becomes indispensable to the investigation. He's the man 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:59.520 reporters would take to calling the Welsh Wizard. 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:05.160 Dear Demander I enclose a letter I sent to Private 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:05.960 Eye yesterday. 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:10.079 This is an email I received from doctor Dowie Evans 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.520 last year, read by an actor. I had been briefly 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.680 corresponding with him in October of twenty twenty four and 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.160 again in twenty twenty six, but he never responded to 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.760 giving me a formal interview. But that didn't stop him 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:25.640 from sharing his thoughts via email. 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:31.840 Doctor Hammond has no experience of medical legal practice, and 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:37.520 as far as I know, has no pediatric or neonatology experience. 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.240 He's best known as a stand up comedian and writes 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.280 for satirical magazine Private Eye. 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.080 As you can tell, he's not doctor Hammond's biggest fan. 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:53.880 The Eye is not really qualified to engage on matters 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:59.280 as sensitive and complicated as the murder of little babies. 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.800 Doctor Evans is in his seventies, a grandfather, living out 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:09.040 his retirement in his beloved Welsh countryside. He has white hair, 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:14.680 fair complexion, gold rimmed glasses and a rotating supply of cardigans. 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.880 Early one Sunday morning in twenty seventeen, an article in 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:23.680 the Sunday Paper catches his attention, and, in true doctor 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:28.600 Evans fashion, he's inspired to fire off an email Dear Nick. 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:33.680 Nick is a contact at the National Crime Agency, a 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:38.160 sort of clearing house that connects expert witnesses with police departments. 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.000 I've read about the high death rate for babies in 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.840 Chester and that the police are investigating do they have 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:51.080 a pediatric neonatal conduct I was involved in neonatal medicine 0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:52.120 for thirty years. 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.200 Doctor Evans has been out of clinical practice for nearly 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:59.120 a decade, but he keeps busy by working as an 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:04.080 expert witness, mainly on cases of medical malpractice and child abuse. 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:08.080 If the Chester police have no one in mind, I'd 0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:11.040 be interested to help. Sounds like my kind of case. 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:13.240 The police agree. 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.520 Doctor Evans begins work on Operation Hummingbird as an expert 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:22.920 witness in the summer of twenty seventeen. Here he is 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:26.120 talking on the RAJ persad In Conversation podcast. 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:30.720 I said, if you suspect somebody, or you suspect some people, 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:35.680 don't I don't want to know. This is July twenty seventeen. 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.520 What I need is to get the notes of every 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:42.680 baby who's died and every baby who's collapsed from January 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:47.280 twenty fifteen to July twenty sixteen, not just the suspicious 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:50.920 ones or the ones you can't explain. I want all 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:53.480 of them. 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.280 That attitude, he goes on to say, allowed him to 0:16:56.320 --> 0:17:00.400 approach the task of investigating in a completely unbiased way. 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:05.000 But the records from the police investigation, the ones detailing 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:10.240 doctor Evans's involvement in the case, they tell a different story. 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:12.320 According to doctor Hammond. 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:14.320 And he said, within ten minutes of looking at the 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.760 notes of the baby, I knew this was inflicted harm. 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:27.920 It's in the police thought. Oh and it was his certainty. 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:32.400 As long as there have been police and investigations, there 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:37.120 has been tunnel vision. Tunnel vision is when investigators get 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:41.320 so focused on one theory they may inadvertently ignore or 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:45.440 even deliberately suppress evidence that doesn't fit. You can think 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.800 of it as a species of confirmation bias, the human 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.600 tendency to look for evidence that confirms an established belief 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:57.360 or favored theory and to discount evidence that contradicts it. 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.320 It's a very dangerous problem, one that is at the 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:05.800 heart of many wrongful convictions, including mine. Even after the 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:09.399 true perpetrator's DNA was identified in and on the body 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:13.240 of my roommate, the investigators and the prosecutor, who already 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:18.439 believed I was somehow involved, ignored exonerating evidence like the 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:21.040 fact that none of my DNA was ever found in 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:25.120 the room where the murder occurred. But they also magnified 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:28.679 the importance of irrelevant evidence, like the fact that my 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.600 DNA was found in the bathroom, the bathroom I used 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:36.800 every day. It was tempting to think at the time 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.080 that they were simply out to railroad me, no matter 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:43.960 the cost. But I've learned to see that malice isn't 0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:46.119 necessary to explain that behavior. 0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:52.080 Justice can make mistakes because the machinery is run by 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.720 human beings. Human beings make mistakes. 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:59.280 John Sweeney from episode one, the former war correspondent with 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:03.280 The Unrulyed. He has done a very deep dive into 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.879 the investigation into Lucy Ledby's case. 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.359 I do not believe that the police did a proper 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:13.320 job when they took the advice of an expert who 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:14.440 knocked on their door. 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:19.199 John says that from the very beginning, Lucy was the 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.919 person at the end of the tunnel, and those with 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.360 the power to accuse her, charge her, and then prosecute 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:29.760 her saw nothing and no one else, and he believes 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:35.400 that included their star witness, doctor Evans aka the Welsh Wizard. 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:41.000 Essentially, the stististics don't make sense. They're wrong. The idea 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:43.320 of somebody being locked up, the idea of me being 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.240 locked up for a crime that didn't happen, or that 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:51.280 you're entirely innocent of that's a terrible, terrible thing. And 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:53.800 what happens if they're wrong? What happens if the doctors 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:58.240 have improperly excluded other alternative explanations. 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:02.640 John believes that doctor Evans only helped reinforce the police's 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:06.000 tunnel vision, that he was irresponsible with the way he 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:11.880 interpreted the evidence supplied by investigators, especially the information gathered 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:15.440 that showed Lucy was at work for every suspicious incident. 0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:20.320 You know, you've got to be quite careful with the 0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:21.200 statistics of it. 0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:24.360 John Sweeney is not the only one with that opinion. 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:28.280 This is doctor Jane Hutton, a professor of statistics at 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:29.760 the University of Warwick. 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:32.439 I've been interested in mathematics for a long time and 0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:36.240 also in using mathematics to address problems in the real world. 0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:41.360 Doctor Hutton, like doctor Evans, was hired by the Cheshire 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:44.600 Police to consult with their investigation into Lucy let be. 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:48.760 The first I knew, Butchlor's background noise was in about 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:51.400 April twenty eighteen when I was asked to get involved. 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:55.280 Doctor Hutton recalls that investigators were asking her to find 0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:57.000 numbers that fit their theory. 0:20:57.200 --> 0:20:59.840 Their initial thing was, we'd like you to help us 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:04.159 understand the statistical issues, and we would like you to 0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:07.679 calculate a probability of one member of staff being present. 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.080 Can you come up with a figure of something like 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:13.439 one in a million for probability of somebody being on duty? 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:15.600 So I said, well, that's completely the wrong way to 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:15.920 do it. 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:20.040 That's like asking a fingerprint analyst, can you come up 0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.639 with an explanation for why these two prints match instead 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:26.439 of asking them to determine if they are a match 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:30.400 or not. As doctor Hutton goes on to explain, when 0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:34.000 it comes to the neonatal unit and infant deaths, finding 0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:39.159 a cause of death isn't always straightforward. For doctor Hutton, 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:43.160 looking at neonatal deaths is a bit like being asked 0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:45.920 to explain the exact cause of death of a very 0:21:45.960 --> 0:21:46.720 old person. 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:49.760 You know, it can be slightly tricky to think, well, 0:21:49.800 --> 0:21:52.359 was it the kidneys or the liberal the lungs or 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:54.680 the heart or the brain. So yet it always get 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:56.639 a very clear cause. And also, if you've got to 0:21:56.640 --> 0:22:00.880 talk about an unexpected collapse of anybody in intensive care, 0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:05.000 you're in intensive care because you're seriously unstable. 0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:10.400 And as Hutton says, the babies in the Countess's neonatal 0:22:10.520 --> 0:22:12.280 unit were sick babies. 0:22:12.880 --> 0:22:15.119 The best you can be a stable contrary to what 0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:17.040 was said in the trial that the babies were well. 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.760 If they were well, they were taking up places they 0:22:19.760 --> 0:22:20.240 didn't need. 0:22:20.800 --> 0:22:23.520 Doctor Hutton adds that the information she was given on 0:22:23.560 --> 0:22:27.400 the babies who died or collapsed was not only insufficient, 0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:29.800 but also income example, all. 0:22:29.680 --> 0:22:32.320 The deaths and look at all the factors of the deaths, 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:35.560 and then you might say, okay, we want to look 0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.520 at twins who didn't die, or we want to look 0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:40.840 at triplets who didn't die, or so on. 0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:42.320 So you've got a comparison group. 0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:48.720 Without all the needed information rigorously and properly collected, Doctor 0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:51.320 Hutton could not determine anything. 0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.320 So I basically said, that is not what I will do, 0:22:55.400 --> 0:22:57.360 because that is the wrong thing to do. I can 0:22:57.359 --> 0:22:59.680 tell you what the correct approach is, and I did 0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:03.040 at some meetings discussing the correct approach, what was needed, 0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:03.560 and so on. 0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:09.159 I'll be the first to admit that my brain isn't 0:23:09.200 --> 0:23:12.800 wired for math and statistics. But even I can tell 0:23:12.840 --> 0:23:16.040 you you don't need a PhD in statistics to understand 0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:21.520 what was lacking here. Basically, Hutton needed a bigger sample size. 0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:22.720 She needed more. 0:23:22.480 --> 0:23:26.080 Information on the babies and their mothers, the pregnancies and 0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:30.320 the outcomes. For Hutton, cherry picking the evidence that way 0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:32.399 is a recipe for tunnel vision. 0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:36.320 You need to interpret them correctly. You need to be 0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:40.240 very aware of cognitive bias and the risks of bias 0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:42.520 in people looking for evidence. 0:23:42.760 --> 0:23:46.080 But doctor Hutton says her warnings seemed to fall on 0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:47.399 deaf ears. 0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:51.119 And then essentially it went quiet, and I would get 0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:53.160 the old trickle of oh, we're waiting for the Crime 0:23:53.240 --> 0:23:57.720 Prosecution Service. They might have different views about evidence, so 0:23:57.960 --> 0:23:58.800 just went silent. 0:23:59.520 --> 0:24:03.240 In fact, the next time doctor Hutton heard anything substantial 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:05.800 about the Lucy let Be case was when let Be 0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:06.760 was arrested. 0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:10.639 You don't start by assuming that there's murder when you 0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:11.480 have no evidence. 0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:19.480 Doctor Hutton might have had real trouble with the task 0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:23.720 she was given by the police, but doctor Dowie Evans, 0:24:24.280 --> 0:24:27.240 he would go on to be the prosecution star witness. 0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:30.879 Just before the trial, the doctors of the Countess helped 0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:34.399 police piece together a graph. On one side of the 0:24:34.440 --> 0:24:38.359 graph the babies who had collapsed or died. On the 0:24:38.400 --> 0:24:41.760 other a list of the nurses on staff, and right 0:24:41.840 --> 0:24:45.800 down the middle under Lucy's name, a column of x'es. 0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:52.040