Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: It is surveillance. Single best idea and the best idea
Speaker 2: today was to get to the March twentieth FED meeting.
Speaker 2: Of course, of the jobs report. We've got that on Friday.
Speaker 2: A lot of economic data this week, but clearly jobs
Speaker 2: report front and center. What's interesting here in the last
Speaker 2: number of weeks with his boom inequities, what a moonshot
Speaker 2: on Nvidia today as well to open up trading. And
Speaker 2: the basic idea is, well, the FED talk, the parlor
Speaker 2: talk that's moved aside as we've all been shocked by
Speaker 2: the success in American equity, is the success in American technology.
Speaker 2: We focus back on the FED today and I want
Speaker 2: you to listen to This is from Nourro Rabini, Professor
Speaker 2: Emeritis at NYU. And what's so important here is this
Speaker 2: was the most optimistic Nora Rabini Damian Sasa hour and
Speaker 2: I've heard in ages.
Speaker 3: And I would say that paradoxically, the biggest risk today
Speaker 3: to the market is actually is a case of no
Speaker 3: landing where growth could continue to be above potential. And
Speaker 3: why it's going to be inactive for the markets because
Speaker 3: if growth remains above potential. The FAT is not going
Speaker 3: to cut rates starting the middle of the year, is
Speaker 3: not going to cut rates three times this year. They
Speaker 3: could cut on it two one, maybe even zero, and
Speaker 3: I would say, paradoxically, the best news for the economy
Speaker 3: maybe the worst use for the market. So we've gone
Speaker 3: from hard landing to bumpy to soft to maybe no landing.
Speaker 2: Nor Rabini mega threats. This is wonderful and readable book.
Speaker 2: What are coming on here, folks is simple. The one
Speaker 2: single word is ambiguity, and that if you get resilient rates,
Speaker 2: you can cut both ways. I guess if rates go up,
Speaker 2: that's bad for all of us because things are more
Speaker 2: expensive than nominal rates higher supposedly the inflation adjusted rate
Speaker 2: is higher. But also maybe rates go up because the
Speaker 2: economy is better than expected. And the keyword is ambiguity.
Speaker 2: I can't say enough about that. I would pull that
Speaker 2: all the way back to in the media macroeconomic blah
Speaker 2: blah blah, which typically is not founded on microeconomic foundations,
Speaker 2: or just simply have you done your microeconomics to enrich
Speaker 2: your study of the bigger picture. Trust me, somebody like
Speaker 2: Nora Orbini has done that. So the number one thing
Speaker 2: I would say in this study is ambiguity is absolutely
Speaker 2: a front and center. Now, I want to bring that
Speaker 2: over to one of our other guests today, Jim Bianco's
Speaker 2: in Chicago, hugely read, particularly out on social media, real
Speaker 2: LinkedIn presence as well, and Jim Bianco holistically bringing in
Speaker 2: what I talk about economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 2: And what's so important about mister Bianco's work is so
Speaker 2: when he makes a statement, he monitors it and stays
Speaker 2: with it. Tell the facts change, and then Jim Bianco changes.
Speaker 2: Nine months ago, a year ago, Jim Bianco said, you know,
Speaker 2: the disinflationary tendency out there may not happen, and he
Speaker 2: was one of the first people to call for higher
Speaker 2: resilient rates or even that they would move higher from
Speaker 2: the trend at the time that was down. A lot
Speaker 2: of people have joined Jim Bianco with that now and
Speaker 2: that goes back to the ambiguity and what doctor Rubini
Speaker 2: talked about, which is the idea, if we get a
Speaker 2: Jim Bianco resilient rate, what does that mean for our
Speaker 2: real GDP? And if you had on inflation, what does
Speaker 2: that mean for our top line nominal GDP? Our animal spirits.
Speaker 2: Here's Jim Bianco.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's on my headstone right now, because I've got
Speaker 1: three percent on inflation, two and a half percent on
Speaker 1: nominal GDP, two and a half percent on growth real growth,
Speaker 1: three percent of inflation, five and a half on nominal GDP,
Speaker 1: and ultimately I think that that's where interest rates are
Speaker 1: going to go. It's to five and a half percent.
Speaker 1: It's on my headstone that everybody's freaking out that the
Speaker 1: rates could go that high. I think they can and
Speaker 1: they won't break anything if they get that high. That's
Speaker 1: the part that everybody seems to miss about that call.
Speaker 2: Jim Bianco there talking with us earlier today, really spirited conversation.
Speaker 2: Of course, all of that's out on Apple CarPlay on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Thrilled to the result. This is a big experiment. I mean,
Speaker 2: a fossil like me. I mean, I remember when the
Speaker 2: world stopped for gun smoke, you know, on Thursday night.
Speaker 2: Forget about that. YouTube's the modern thing. We're going there
Speaker 2: out on Bloomberg Podcasts and with Jim Bianco there, and
Speaker 2: he's been right. Rates are resilient. Rates are higher the
Speaker 2: ten year inflation adjusted yield as a measurement. I use
Speaker 2: one point eight eight percent. If we have a high
Speaker 2: or more resilient economy and more resilient rates, isn't that good?
Speaker 2: And that's the arch social question tying in what doctor
Speaker 2: Rubini's talking about with new optimism and what Jim Bianco's
Speaker 2: talking about. And again, as Paul Sweeney has said, you
Speaker 2: have to go back to say the senator from Massachusetts,
Speaker 2: Senator Warren who's saying, wait a minute, a better economy
Speaker 2: forming jobs is bad. And that's the arch conundrum that
Speaker 2: we face. There's no question about this. We are thrilled
Speaker 2: with this new effort. It is surveillance single best idea.
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