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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: It is surveillance. Single best idea and the best idea

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Speaker 2: today was to get to the March twentieth FED meeting.

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Speaker 2: Of course, of the jobs report. We've got that on Friday.

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Speaker 2: A lot of economic data this week, but clearly jobs

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Speaker 2: report front and center. What's interesting here in the last

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Speaker 2: number of weeks with his boom inequities, what a moonshot

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Speaker 2: on Nvidia today as well to open up trading. And

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Speaker 2: the basic idea is, well, the FED talk, the parlor

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Speaker 2: talk that's moved aside as we've all been shocked by

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Speaker 2: the success in American equity, is the success in American technology.

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Speaker 2: We focus back on the FED today and I want

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Speaker 2: you to listen to This is from Nourro Rabini, Professor

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Speaker 2: Emeritis at NYU. And what's so important here is this

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Speaker 2: was the most optimistic Nora Rabini Damian Sasa hour and

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Speaker 2: I've heard in ages.

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Speaker 3: And I would say that paradoxically, the biggest risk today

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Speaker 3: to the market is actually is a case of no

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Speaker 3: landing where growth could continue to be above potential. And

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Speaker 3: why it's going to be inactive for the markets because

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Speaker 3: if growth remains above potential. The FAT is not going

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Speaker 3: to cut rates starting the middle of the year, is

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Speaker 3: not going to cut rates three times this year. They

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Speaker 3: could cut on it two one, maybe even zero, and

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Speaker 3: I would say, paradoxically, the best news for the economy

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Speaker 3: maybe the worst use for the market. So we've gone

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Speaker 3: from hard landing to bumpy to soft to maybe no landing.

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Speaker 2: Nor Rabini mega threats. This is wonderful and readable book.

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Speaker 2: What are coming on here, folks is simple. The one

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Speaker 2: single word is ambiguity, and that if you get resilient rates,

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Speaker 2: you can cut both ways. I guess if rates go up,

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Speaker 2: that's bad for all of us because things are more

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Speaker 2: expensive than nominal rates higher supposedly the inflation adjusted rate

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Speaker 2: is higher. But also maybe rates go up because the

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Speaker 2: economy is better than expected. And the keyword is ambiguity.

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Speaker 2: I can't say enough about that. I would pull that

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Speaker 2: all the way back to in the media macroeconomic blah

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Speaker 2: blah blah, which typically is not founded on microeconomic foundations,

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Speaker 2: or just simply have you done your microeconomics to enrich

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Speaker 2: your study of the bigger picture. Trust me, somebody like

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Speaker 2: Nora Orbini has done that. So the number one thing

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Speaker 2: I would say in this study is ambiguity is absolutely

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Speaker 2: a front and center. Now, I want to bring that

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Speaker 2: over to one of our other guests today, Jim Bianco's

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Speaker 2: in Chicago, hugely read, particularly out on social media, real

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Speaker 2: LinkedIn presence as well, and Jim Bianco holistically bringing in

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Speaker 2: what I talk about economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 2: And what's so important about mister Bianco's work is so

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Speaker 2: when he makes a statement, he monitors it and stays

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Speaker 2: with it. Tell the facts change, and then Jim Bianco changes.

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Speaker 2: Nine months ago, a year ago, Jim Bianco said, you know,

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Speaker 2: the disinflationary tendency out there may not happen, and he

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Speaker 2: was one of the first people to call for higher

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Speaker 2: resilient rates or even that they would move higher from

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Speaker 2: the trend at the time that was down. A lot

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Speaker 2: of people have joined Jim Bianco with that now and

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Speaker 2: that goes back to the ambiguity and what doctor Rubini

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Speaker 2: talked about, which is the idea, if we get a

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Speaker 2: Jim Bianco resilient rate, what does that mean for our

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Speaker 2: real GDP? And if you had on inflation, what does

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Speaker 2: that mean for our top line nominal GDP? Our animal spirits.

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Speaker 2: Here's Jim Bianco.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's on my headstone right now, because I've got

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Speaker 1: three percent on inflation, two and a half percent on

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Speaker 1: nominal GDP, two and a half percent on growth real growth,

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Speaker 1: three percent of inflation, five and a half on nominal GDP,

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Speaker 1: and ultimately I think that that's where interest rates are

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Speaker 1: going to go. It's to five and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: It's on my headstone that everybody's freaking out that the

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Speaker 1: rates could go that high. I think they can and

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Speaker 1: they won't break anything if they get that high. That's

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Speaker 1: the part that everybody seems to miss about that call.

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Speaker 2: Jim Bianco there talking with us earlier today, really spirited conversation.

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Speaker 2: Of course, all of that's out on Apple CarPlay on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Thrilled to the result. This is a big experiment. I mean,

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Speaker 2: a fossil like me. I mean, I remember when the

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Speaker 2: world stopped for gun smoke, you know, on Thursday night.

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Speaker 2: Forget about that. YouTube's the modern thing. We're going there

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Speaker 2: out on Bloomberg Podcasts and with Jim Bianco there, and

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Speaker 2: he's been right. Rates are resilient. Rates are higher the

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Speaker 2: ten year inflation adjusted yield as a measurement. I use

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Speaker 2: one point eight eight percent. If we have a high

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Speaker 2: or more resilient economy and more resilient rates, isn't that good?

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Speaker 2: And that's the arch social question tying in what doctor

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Speaker 2: Rubini's talking about with new optimism and what Jim Bianco's

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Speaker 2: talking about. And again, as Paul Sweeney has said, you

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Speaker 2: have to go back to say the senator from Massachusetts,

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Speaker 2: Senator Warren who's saying, wait a minute, a better economy

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Speaker 2: forming jobs is bad. And that's the arch conundrum that

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Speaker 2: we face. There's no question about this. We are thrilled

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Speaker 2: with this new effort. It is surveillance single best idea.

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Speaker 2: That's you know, the sellside by Hotel Quick, Dana Telsey,

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Speaker 2: what's your single best idea? Okay, that's where it comes from.

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Speaker 2: But for us, it's the enriched ideas of all of

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Speaker 2: our guests here across economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 2: Don't forget Live seven to ten am. Bloomberg Surveillance, Tom

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Speaker 2: Keen and Paul Sweeney and we're out to you on

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Speaker 2: Apple CarPlay the Bloomberg Business app. It's free. And this

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Speaker 2: thing YouTube, Go to Bloomberg Podcast. You going to YouTube

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Speaker 2: instead of searching for Taylor Swift. You search for Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: podcasts and we come up there with a big white

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Speaker 2: screens surveying, So that's how you find this, and we're

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Speaker 2: really humbled by how it's growing. We hope to do

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Speaker 2: this daily for you. Surveillance single best idea