WEBVTT - Fat Wallet: Tariffs, Mergers, Brands 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.200 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:11.119 I'm having a horrible week. Let me tell you about it. 0:00:11.160 --> 0:00:16.759 I heard it gets worse, It gets worse. I was 0:00:16.800 --> 0:00:19.200 getting on the subway and I was looking at my 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:23.000 phone as one does, and I didn't notice in time 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:27.280 that there was a just huge pool of oatmeal on 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:31.280 the floor of the subway car. When I'm ninety percent 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:34.120 confident it was oatmeal, I'll tell you why. There was 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.920 a lid next to it, so I don't know. Maybe 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:39.199 someone vomited and then threw a lid down, but I'm 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:41.120 hoping that it was oatmeal. Anyway, it splotted up the 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:47.559 back of my jeans. That was yesterday. I was walking 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.880 with my lunch in my hand and just stepped in 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:57.160 dog feces. Just I'm so upset. I hate this city. 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:01.360 It's horrible here. You have to always be on high alert, 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:03.920 and I'm tired of it. Man, I'm just I'm worn down. 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:07.080 Yeah, since I moved to the suburbs, I have not 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:11.120 necessarily seen a decrease in my incidence of stepping on 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:11.720 gross things. 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.680 Yeah, but I feel like you're part of the dog community. 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:17.360 Yeah, sure, bringing on myself. 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.000 I'm kind of asking for it, but I'm not. I'm 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.160 specifically not in the dog community. I have a cat, 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:24.160 and I moved to New Jersey, so I try to 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:28.160 avoid disgusting things, and I just I can't. It all 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:30.240 found me this week and bad luck comes in three. 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:32.399 So something hideous is going to happen. 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.760 You're going to step on something real bad. 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:36.760 Something is going to step on me. I don't know. 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:41.119 Hello, and welcome to the Money Stuff Podcast, your weekly 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:45.479 podcast where we talk about stuff related to money. I'm 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:47.560 Matt Levine and I write the Money Stuff column for 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:48.480 Bloomberg Opinion. 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:52.000 And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:53.640 an anchor for Bloomberg Television. 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:56.480 You know who else is having a bad week? 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:57.440 The list goes on. 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:05.320 I was gonna say Donald Trump, but there's no real 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.760 reason to think that Donald Trump's tariffs have a bad 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:14.720 day Wednesday in the US Supreme Court because they're illegal, 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:17.360 and every court that has considered them found them illegal. 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:21.880 And the Supreme Court has generally been more willing to 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:25.080 let Donald Trump do illegal things than other courts are, because, 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:26.680 like you know, the other courts, there's like a law, 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:28.960 the law, and the Supreme Court is like, yeah, we 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:31.560 get to make up the law. So they've been a 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:34.880 little more generous. But it seems like from the oral 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:36.960 argument on Wednesday, it seems like they might have hit 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:40.399 their limit on Donald Trump's universal tariffs. 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.160 Yeah, it's funny. It seems like skepticism was the word 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:44.960 of the day, I think, almost every meeting. 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:46.840 So you can't really tell what they think from the 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.400 oral argument, so you have to write that they were skeptical. 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:53.560 Yeah, yeah, asked skeptical questions, things along those lines. Yeah, 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:57.000 we're talking about the nineteen seventy seven International Emergency Economic 0:02:57.040 --> 0:03:01.560 Powers Act AIPA, if you will. So Donald Trump says 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:04.080 that it's in the interest of national security that he's 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:08.240 basically able to levy blanket tariffs around the globe. And 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.440 that's what's in question right now, defining the limits of 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:12.959 this nineteen seventies law. 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:18.120 Yeah, normal people and lawyers and economists believe that tariffs 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:22.200 are taxes because they are, and the US Constitution says 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:26.079 that only Congress can impose taxes. And in APA, Congress 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:30.919 gave the president the power to regulate importation in an emergency, 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.360 but it doesn't say you can tax them. And it 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:40.800 seems to me and many other people, and probably five 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:44.839 or so justices of the Supreme Court, that that does 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.880 not give Donald Trump the power to unilatterally impose taxes 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:50.440 on the imports of every country in the world. Donald 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:55.080 Trump disagrees, and in the Supreme Court argument, his lawyer 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:59.120 Solicitor General, argued that these are not taxes. They're not 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:02.840 designed to raise rev and the goal of the tariffs 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:07.840 is to make everyone. Essentially, actually said the fact they 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.320 raise revenue is only incidental. The tariffs would be most 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:14.440 effective if no person ever paid them, because there were 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:15.240 no imports. 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:16.560 I think amazing. 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.360 Yeah, but no one believes that, certainly not Donald Trump, 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:22.040 who has talked about how much revenue they're raising, and 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:23.320 certainly not the strim Court. 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:25.880 So you know, yeah, I feel like it's been pretty 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:28.480 nakedly a goal of the tariffs is to raise tariff 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:30.159 revenue and trying to shrink the budget. 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.240 Justice it sure, because they're at tax Yeah, so it's 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.400 very hard to argue that, and they tried, and it 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.000 doesn't seem like it went that well. 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:40.479 Yeah, again, we don't know what they were thinking. We 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:42.040 might get a decision by the end of the year, 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:44.880 which is exciting. But I have a quote here from 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:49.240 Chief Justice John Roberts saying that the tariffs were quote 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:52.280 an imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.440 been the core power of Congress. That's a direct quote. 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:56.640 And then you also it's literally. 0:04:56.440 --> 0:04:58.440 Read a front of the Constitution, like the Constitution is 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:00.440 like an actual favorite you can read right, you actually 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:02.039 see that. It says Congress has a parat advice. 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:06.440 I've carused it now and again a lot of amendments. Anyway, 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:09.559 this is really enough front, right up front. And then 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:13.599 you had Trump appointed justices as well, Neil Gorsuch and 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:17.640 Amy Cony Barrett apparently also asking skeptical questions as well. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:18.920 But again it's very hard to know. 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:21.560 It's hard to know. Neil Gorsuch, I have a certain 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.919 personal fondness for no goar, such pause, go on. I 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:26.680 think you talked about this on the podcast, But my 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.479 wife argued a case in the Supreme Court that was 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:33.720 a non delegation doctrine in case. The non delegation doctrine 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:35.840 has been around for a long time. Basically, it says 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:39.560 that Congress can't just hand over its powers to the 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:43.400 executive branch without giving it an intelligible principle how to 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:46.479 regulate that doctrine has been around for a while, but 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:50.839 never really worked for the last hundred years. Like, the 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:53.800 Supreme Court has never found a violation of the non 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.080 delegation doctrine. It's never said Congress deligated too much power here, 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:01.080 But Neil Gorsuch believes in it and has like tried 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:04.080 to find violations of it and has like dissented from 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:07.200 decisions including on and Following My Wife and saying that, 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.640 like the non delegation doction should have some real power. 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:16.400 And it seems here that if Congress intended to delegate 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:21.279 the power to unilaterally tax all imports forever to the president, 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.159 that would be quite a striking delegation that would perhaps 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:28.159 exceed the ability of Congress to delegate, so like there's 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:31.560 natural reason to think that he would oppose these tariffs. Similarly, 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:35.760 John Roberts invented the thing called the major questions doctrine, 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:38.480 which has become a big part of Supreme Court jurist prudence, 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:39.880 even though he kind of made it up a few 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.840 years ago. And in the major questions doctrine, basically it's like, 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.840 if Congress is going to give the executive like some 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.880 huge new power. It has to do so clearly. And 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:52.599 here AIPA gives the president the power to regulate imports, 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:55.880 which is not taxing them. So it doesn't seem like 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:56.680 it does it clearly. 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:57.560 Yeah. 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:59.400 So like if you look at you know, if you count, 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:02.440 like three liberal justices are going to sign out. One 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:06.280 John Roberts loves his major question doctrine, and one new 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:09.200 of course such loves his non delegation doctrine. You kind 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:10.800 of get to the doors being stricked down. 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:15.080 Yeah, which is interesting and exciting because the question has 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:19.080 also been raised, would reimbursement. 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:19.520 Oh yeah, have to happen? 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:21.960 What on earth would that possibly look like? 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.720 Right? If you just went to the Supreme Court, you know, 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.960 a year ago and asked them would this pay legal? 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.320 I think they'd all say no, Yeah, but it's already happened, 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:32.640 right for sure, it's already raised hundreds of billions of 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:36.560 dollars or whatever, and so unscrambling the egg is really hard, 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:39.679 and I don't know what will happen. I will say 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:42.960 that you could imagine the government being like it would 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:44.960 be impossible to pay refunds. And that's the reason not 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.160 to strike this down. And they haven't done that. They've 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:50.280 been like, yeah, I would pay refunds. Yeah, I do 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:52.240 think anythink that's a little interesting, is that if you 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.560 think about the incidents right, like on the one hand, 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:56.640 like I don't think consumers have paid a lot of 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:57.280 these times. 0:07:57.600 --> 0:07:59.920 Yeah, it seems like so far companies have you know, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:00.360 a lot. 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:04.000 Of the costs. So pretty strong consensus is that tariffs 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:06.400 have not been passed on to consumers nearly as much 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:10.560 as economists expected. And I don't know exactly there isn't 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:12.120 for that. Some of it it's just like a you know, 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:15.760 good profit environment, and some of it is like everyone's 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:17.200 a little bit waiting and seeing and like if the 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.040 tariffs continued forever, they might pass them on. 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:20.560 But the yeah, what happens. 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:24.000 But at the same time, like if there are refunds, 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:26.720 I don't know who gets the refunds. I think a 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:30.680 lot of like the importers have sold refund claims to 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:33.439 like hedge funds. Yeah, this is a real Wall Street 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.560 trade where like some banks have been arranging trades where 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.240 hedge funds will buy refund claims it like forty cents 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:41.559 on the dollar. And if the stream court strikes them down, 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:43.600 then like they get their money, and if it doesn't 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.240 then they lose the forty cents on the dollar. So 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.959 it would be more interesting if the tariffs like had 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:50.800 been passed on to consumers and then they were like 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:54.440 ultimately a transfer of money from consumers to hedge funds. Yeah, 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.000 but instead I think there's just a transfer of money 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:57.080 from companies stage funds. 0:08:57.120 --> 0:09:00.400 Well. Amy Coney Barrett did ask the lawyer for the 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:04.160 small businesses that sued basically how the process would work 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:07.319 should the terroriffs be overturned. His answer was that if 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.360 they are overturned, then businesses may seek the return of 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.320 the billions already paid to the US Treasury. So in 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:15.280 that scenario, like the businesses have sold them. 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:19.840 Yeah, there's some interesting questions about whether the government would 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:21.800 stone while a hedge fund that has bought Tireff claims, 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:25.160 you know, yeah, but probably it'd be fine. Probably some 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:26.319 hedgehunds are going to do well out of this. 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:30.880 So the most interesting possibility for this podcast is that 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:32.280 these terrafts are overturned. 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:37.000 Well, yes, and then a hedge fund sues the government 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:38.760 for a refund that the government says now and it 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:40.640 goes to the Supreme courtly, that's a fun one. 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:41.559 It's a fun one. 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:44.720 That's a fun be interested in a tiff refund hedge 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:45.319 fund case. 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:48.120 I do want to put some numbers around the terriff 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:51.760 revenue so far, because I think it's interesting. Apparently it's 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:55.240 helped bring the national budget deficit down to one point 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:58.320 seven eight trillion dollars for the most recent fiscal years. 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:01.840 That's a drop of two per from twenty twenty four, 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:04.640 which is good news. But you think about the overall 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:10.840 trajectory of spends and tax cuts, it's probably not going 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:12.640 to really change things that much. 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:14.840 But even still, but else it's getting reversed. 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:17.360 Maybe maybe we don't know that right. 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.680 And like again, like the government can't argue about this. 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.199 They can't be like, we need these tariffs to keep 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:24.439 the deficit down. Yeah, I mean they can. They can 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:25.760 say it, but they can't say it in the Supreme 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.440 Court because to the Supreme Court, they're saying, this isn't attack. 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.960 We're not raising revenue, so we can't talk about the revenue. 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.480 Yeah. Well, kind of reminds me of the situation with 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.959 Nvidia and AMD chips in terms of the idea was 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:41.280 floated that the government would take a cut of Chinese revenues, 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:42.440 like the revenue that they. 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:44.360 Need in China, like a reverse taff. 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:46.680 Yeah, but it's also like, how do you argue that's 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:50.920 for national security that also seems to be just nakedly revenue. 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:51.840 It's crazy. 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:55.040 It's like you can tell advanced technology to our enomy 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:56.080 as lone as we got to cut. 0:10:56.160 --> 0:11:12.880 Yeah right, cony up, what do you want to talk 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:13.439 about next? 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:14.240 Met Sarah? 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:19.880 I love this story so much drama in the healthcare. 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:24.880 I'm an ice bace for this very hot, promising obesity startup, 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:25.600 met Sarah. 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:27.520 Yeah, it's good to have an obesity drug. 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:29.319 Yeahs I wish I had won. 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:34.000 Yeah. So, Metsarah is a like US biotech company that 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.360 has an obesity drug that seems to be promising. 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.360 Not on the market yet, no, but it did recently 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:40.520 complete a mid stage trial. 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.599 Yeah. So it's a promising but not yet commercialized the 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:48.120 obesity drug. And Pfizer, a big US from a company 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:52.760 that had a notable failure in trials of it's obesity drug. Yeah, 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.720 and it's kind of like adrift without an obesity drug, 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.640 agreed to buy met Sarah in September and since then, 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.559 no Nordisk, which you know is a giant Danish pharmaceutical 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:07.600 company that notably makes ozepic yep and we go vi yes, 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:11.440 has come in with a higher bid for Metsarah, which 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:15.800 surest all has interesting drama. But secondly, because Novo has 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:20.120 the leading obesity drugs, there's a huge anti trust problem 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:24.800 with it buying met Sarah. Yeah, and met Sarah with 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:28.439 the board of directors is choosing between a higher offer 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.360 from Novo that might not go through or a lower 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:33.800 offer from Pfizer that has like very little anti trust risk. 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.360 And Nova got around that problem, or thinks it got 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.439 around that problem, or probably got around that problem by 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:43.040 basically paying the money upfront. So instead of like signing 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.680 a deal and going to get anti trust approval and 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:48.440 when you get anti trust approval paying the money for 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.880 the shares, Novah is just going to hand over the 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.439 money upfront. It's going to be dividended out to met 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:55.560 Sarah shareholders like as soon as they signed the deal, 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.080 and then Nova will get back like sort of this 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:02.600 like debtlike claim, so that if they get a distress approval, 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:04.960 the deal will close and nov will end up owning Metsarah. 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.319 And if it doesn't close, then Metsarah can sell itself 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:10.600 to someone else, and Nova gets the first like six 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:15.120 point five billion dollars of proceeds. It's a very weird structure. 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.760 It is super weird. I had to reread it a 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.800 number of times, and then listening to you describe it, 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:22.720 I feel like I need to go back and play 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:23.040 it again. 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.760 Yeah. Basically, they're just paying for the company, even if 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.720 they can't end up buying the company, which is wild. 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.840 It's a very bold move by Novo. You mentioned that 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:34.800 they have the leading of a BCD drug. I will 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:38.160 put an asterisk there that they have seeded market share 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:41.480 to Eli Lilly in the US. So they're trying to 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:43.480 regain grounds. 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.280 Okay, so one possible is they're trying to regain ground 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.000 by getting Metsara's awesome new drugs. 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:48.559 Yeah. 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.000 Pfizer has a different theory, which is that they don't 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.520 care about this drug. They're just trying to catch and 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.720 kill it. They're trying to prevent Pfiser from getting an 0:13:55.720 --> 0:14:01.199 ibcit drug by doing this deal where where they will 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.640 lock up met Sarah in like trying to get regulatory 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:09.080 approvals for two years. And Pfizer says the deal with 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.440 Nova will never close, They'll never get an anti trust approval, 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:14.160 but like it'll take so long that the actual purpose 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.480 of this deal is to prove ad pviser from buying it, 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:21.280 so sort of like maintain Nova's position. So that's Pfizer's view. 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:25.720 They've sued in multiple courts. They kind of lost around 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:30.160 this week Deliery Chancery Court refused to stop Metsarah from 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:32.920 taking the Nova deal, but you know there's still lawsuits 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:33.520 kicking around. 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:37.280 Yeah, that is a very cynical take. I feel like 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:41.080 the fact that it's not Eli Lilly doing this maybe, Yeah. 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.240 It's a cynical take. I mean, it's very weird to 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:45.600 pay for the company up front, even if you might 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:48.200 not get it right. And like one possibility is that 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:50.360 Novo is like, we don't think there's how much anti 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.480 trust risk. We understand Metsarah is worried about it, so 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:55.800 we're going to bear that risk ourselves by paying everything 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.080 up front. But are other possibilities that everyone thinks there's 0:14:58.080 --> 0:14:59.760 a lot of anti trust risk and they're like, we 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:01.520 don't even care if we don't get the company. 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:05.320 Yeah, I will say we heard from the CFO of 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:09.120 Novo talking about why they wanted this company, and they're 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.640 promising drug in particular, and the CFO said that they're 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:16.880 particularly interested in Metsarah's amelin targeting drug. Okay, if anyone 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.600 falling along at home is really well versed in this stuff. 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:23.080 Apparently amelin is another potential target in obesity treatment, and 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.560 just on Thursday, actually Eli Lilly said that it's amelin 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.480 targeting helped patients lose up to twenty point one percent 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.120 of their body weight over forty eight weeks. So I 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:38.280 don't know, like Pfizer has their take, but Novo seems 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:40.359 to have their own. 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:44.040 Right, you can't fully believe the extremely cynical take of 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:47.160 like never spending billions of dollars just the stobviser from 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.040 getting out of PCD DUG that's adviser also has like 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:53.840 a sort of like patriotic argument. Yeah, like you know, 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.680 kind of playing to the Trump Justice Department. Should in 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.480 an American company end up buying this American obesity rather 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:02.880 than giving it to the Danish And. 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:04.920 The government's going to be like what if we got 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.720 a golden chair perhaps something along those lines, perhaps a 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:09.520 kind of revenue. 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.560 I'm sorry, because like this is what's going to happen. 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:13.360 Yes, this is. 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:14.360 Totally what's going to happen. 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.960 Speaking of drama, this has nothing to do with obesity. 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:37.320 Well, the story about a guy who's been five hundred 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:38.840 thousand dollars on his personal. 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:42.400 Chef talk about a fat wallets. So stupid. 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:45.280 Yeah, I think about Like so, uh, Sam bankman Fred 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:49.320 had his appeal this week. Oh yeah, it didn't go well. Oh, 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.160 I mean we don't know the result that skeptical. 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.280 Questions, skeptical skepticism. 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.320 And Sam bankman freet has said that all of his 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:01.840 problems started when he handed over control of FTX to 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:06.040 people who are running it in bankruptcy, file for bankruptcy, 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:07.479 and like someone else takes over the company. 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:09.680 That was the starting point of well, that was. 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:11.320 In the starting pipe. He was like, I could have 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:13.679 recovered before that, but then after they took over the company, 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:17.159 like the new CEO has an incentive to throw the 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.160 old management under the bus, right and find as many 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.520 problems as possible. And I was thinking about that because like, 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:25.840 so we're going to talk about First Brands, which is 0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:31.800 a auto parts conglomerate that went bankrupt and this week 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:38.159 sued its former CEO and soul shareholder Patrick James, for 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.720 various alleged badness basically like doing a lot of fraud 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:46.440 to borrow from various like factoring companies, and like taking 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:48.439 all of that money and giving it to himself and 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:52.439 spending it on seventeen exotic cars, lavish homes and Malibu 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:55.160 and the Hampton's six figure bills for a celebrity chef 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:58.199 other stuff like that. And I just think about it 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.639 because like it's the same kind of dynasm where like 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:04.160 you file for bankruptcy, like essentially a bankruptcy firm takes 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.879 over the company and they're like, you know, let's be 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:10.679 as negative as possible about the previous management, and so 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:12.560 do you know they seem to have found a lot 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:17.520 of stuff. Yeah, but you know you have to be 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:19.600 a little skeptical, right because like they were running the 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:21.760 company on behalf of the creditors, right, and like this 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:23.680 is a company that was one hundred percent owned by 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:25.800 Patrick James, and so they're like he used it as 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:28.360 his personal piggy bank. He absolutely did, Like of course 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.399 he did, because he owned the company, and so he 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:32.840 didn't like follow a lot of like formalities, and like 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.280 when he needed money, he just sent himself some money 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:37.119 from the company, and now they want all that money 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:39.440 back to pay to the creditors, right, and so they're like, oh, 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:43.080 he did lots of fraud. Like I guess I believe them, 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:45.480 But it's just like and it's an interesting dynamic, like 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:47.720 so incentives to say he did lots of fraud. 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:50.600 If I own one hundred percent of an autoparts supplier, 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:52.879 I can take the money out and buy cars. 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.199 Well, the question is who's going to object to that? 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:00.480 And if there are no other soulders in the ordinary course, 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:02.720 no one's going to object it. Now if the company 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:05.600 goes extremely bankrupt, the creditors are going to object it. 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.160 They're gonna be like giving back the money, and they're 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:10.480 going to look very carefully to see if you did 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.879 anything bad. And I do think that like they found 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.520 that he did bad stuff in terms of like I mean, 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.119 like the real allegation here is that most of their 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:22.160 borrowing was secured by invoices. So I could sell auto 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.280 parts to like a car dealership, and they get an 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.199 invoice and they'd borrow against the invoice from like a 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:29.920 factoring company. They would like send over lists of thousands 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:32.639 of invoices to borrow the money and they would just 0:19:32.760 --> 0:19:35.080 change the numbers on the lists to get more money, 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:37.920 and like that's fraud if that's true, right, Like that's 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:40.240 really bad. And so the creditors have like allegedly found 0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:42.119 a lot of that. But then there's just like the 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.080 other question of like, if you have a company that 0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:47.080 borrows money, can you take money out of the company? 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:48.560 And it's like, well, it depends on what the credit 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.840 agreements say, and like they make a lot of noise 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:54.520 about how he didn't follow a lot of formalities, but 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:57.080 they don't say like it was forbidden by the credit agreements. 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.520 I don't know. So I don't mean to defend him. 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.800 I feel I mean, I feel like someone listening cold 0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:04.760