Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, is a been stunning twenty four hours or
Speaker 1: so with respect to Russia and Ukraine. It's about seven
Speaker 1: am here on the East coast. I'm going to break
Speaker 1: down for everybody of what we know. Here's the headline.
Speaker 1: The head of the Wagner Group, you have, Geny Brigosen,
Speaker 1: is currently in control of at least some part of
Speaker 1: the city of rosavon Don in Russia, after launching what
Speaker 1: is apparently a military coup against Vladimir Putin and his leadership.
Speaker 2: Rosavon Don.
Speaker 1: We talked about it actually here before, huge logistical hub
Speaker 1: for the Russian war in Ukraine. Let's back up, how
Speaker 1: did we get here to this genuinely stunning and crazy development.
Speaker 1: So Progozen some of you probably will know him. He
Speaker 1: was the Russian mercenary warrior, head of the Wagner Group.
Speaker 1: He actually took credit for the Russian victory in Bachma.
Speaker 1: He's been probably one of the most serious fighters that's
Speaker 1: currently in the conflict, and he has always been a
Speaker 1: major and fierce critic of the Chief of the Russian
Speaker 1: Armed Forces and of the Russian Defense Minister. His criticism
Speaker 1: has bainly been that the Wagner Group has not received
Speaker 1: enough ammunition from the Russians, not enough support, that the
Speaker 1: Russian military is just throwing troops into the meat grinder
Speaker 1: without any concern for their welfare, and is emerged as
Speaker 1: a major defender for Russian troop welfare inside of Ukraine.
Speaker 1: Well after he's got the city of Bakwen, he has
Speaker 1: this victory, he's actually gained stature in the Russian public.
Speaker 1: About twenty four hours ago, he put out a video
Speaker 1: which stunned absolutely all of us, where he blasted the
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine, said that it was launched under false pretenses.
Speaker 1: He said that Russian oligarchs had gotten greedy after plundering
Speaker 1: the Dunboss region, which was already in an active conflict zone,
Speaker 1: and that they just wanted to pillage even more of Ukraine.
Speaker 1: He even said that the war itself, the basis was
Speaker 1: complete bs Russia was not in danger at the time
Speaker 1: of the invasion, so obviously that was basically a redline,
Speaker 1: and chaos ensued. So he demanded the resident nation of
Speaker 1: the Defense Minister and then the chief of the Russian
Speaker 1: Armed Forces. Now in the middle of the night Moscow
Speaker 1: time is when this sal going down. So the immediate
Speaker 1: sign that the Russian authorities were absolutely not going to
Speaker 1: let this stand. Is that the FSB, the main security agency,
Speaker 1: the successor to the KGB, opened a criminal investigation against
Speaker 1: him for quote armed mutiny.
Speaker 2: So that's it.
Speaker 1: That's like across the rubicon moment. Because you're a wanted man,
Speaker 1: you're not going to immerge from this unscathed. So at
Speaker 1: this point things get even crazier. He starts posting all
Speaker 1: these voice memos on telegram saying he's on his way
Speaker 1: to Rostov not to go after him. He claims he's
Speaker 1: been attacked, he claims that they had bombed him. Nobody
Speaker 1: knows if any of this is true, right, But then
Speaker 1: right in the middle of daylight, we wake up and
Speaker 1: we can actually see Wagner and progoes in not only
Speaker 1: are in control at least of some parts of the city,
Speaker 1: but are even storming or not storming, but like going
Speaker 1: into the Russian military headquarters there. They're posting videos they've
Speaker 1: been verified talking with the people around there quote unquote negotiating,
Speaker 1: And that means like, at the very least, this is
Speaker 1: stunningly successful in its own right, just because he's now
Speaker 1: gained control of a key part of a major logistical hub. Okay,
Speaker 1: So then what happens, because now we're a pretty crazy event.
Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the Russian nation. He gives
Speaker 1: a full six minute address. He denounces Foregrozen, he denounces
Speaker 1: the mutiny. He calls on everybody to lay down their arms.
Speaker 1: He compares the rebellion currently to the nineteen seventeen Bolshevik
Speaker 1: Revolution and says that the Wagner group's efforts are just
Speaker 1: like that separate piece agreement that Lenin pursued which humiliated Russia.
Speaker 2: In World War One.
Speaker 1: The most important line from the full scale, basically declaration
Speaker 1: of war against the Wagoner Group is this quote. Any
Speaker 1: internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to
Speaker 1: us as a nation. It is a strike against our nation,
Speaker 1: our people. Our actions to defend the fatherland from such
Speaker 1: a threat will be brutal.
Speaker 2: Okay. So, like I said, it's about seven am. So
Speaker 2: here's what we know.
Speaker 1: This is all that's really been confirmed so far. There
Speaker 1: are videos to coming out of Russia every which way.
Speaker 1: They show a Wagner column of troops and of equipment
Speaker 1: trying to make its way towards Moscow. Amongst one of
Speaker 1: the major roads. A decent portion of the way it
Speaker 1: has made there so far, not the majority like some
Speaker 1: parts of it.
Speaker 2: We don't actually know the progress.
Speaker 1: We know that there are videos coming out right now,
Speaker 1: helicopters can getting shot down or shot at, bombs being
Speaker 1: dropped on the convoys, total chaos inside of Russia, you know,
Speaker 1: to be clear, we don't know where this is all
Speaker 1: going to end up. We don't know if they're going
Speaker 1: to make it to Russia. People in Moscow are kind
Speaker 1: of freaking out. There's some security services. The Kremlin says
Speaker 1: Putin is in the Kremlin and he's working in his office,
Speaker 1: whatever that means. So look, some analysis just top line,
Speaker 1: here's what I think, massive humiliation for Putin. You know,
Speaker 1: he praised Wagner has recently three weeks ago, he was
Speaker 1: given out metal cities guys, and now they're mounting a
Speaker 1: full scale coup against him, and you know they're not
Speaker 1: listening to him. They're going after his war effort, you
Speaker 1: know right now, I mean this group is only twenty
Speaker 1: five thousand people.
Speaker 2: They're walting into.
Speaker 1: A city of one million, effectively basically undefended, and are
Speaker 1: the very least advanced couple hundred miles into Russia with
Speaker 1: no resistance, I mean, with no resistance in that advance.
Speaker 1: You can say like at the very least the minuscule
Speaker 1: lack of defense is the Russian troops in that area.
Speaker 1: They either didn't care or they were sympathetic, and both
Speaker 1: are a total disaster for command and control of Putin. Now,
Speaker 1: what does this mean for Ukraine? That is probably the
Speaker 1: most interesting question right now, because we could put it
Speaker 1: in a couple of different ways. Obviously, Zelenski and the army,
Speaker 1: you know, they put out messages saying they're celebrating, they're
Speaker 1: in the middle of their own counter offensive. We saw
Speaker 1: those some strikes against Kiev last night, so it's not
Speaker 1: like the air wars stopped, and you know, some Russian
Speaker 1: resistance is still there.
Speaker 2: On the front line.
Speaker 1: But you know, when you're literal logistics for the wars
Speaker 1: occupied by someone mounting a coup against you, but that's bad.
Speaker 1: So there is no question this is going to affect
Speaker 1: the Russian war effort. We just have no idea how
Speaker 1: much yet. Right now, the Ukrainians themselves doem to be
Speaker 1: in a weight and see mood and you know, see
Speaker 1: what happens. As for Putin, I mean, I don't know
Speaker 1: how he emerges unscaped from this, and I don't mean
Speaker 1: that he's going to be deposed, but this is a
Speaker 1: humiliation of the highest level on a national scale. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is an armed mutiny against him, which challenging his
Speaker 1: legitimacy as the strong man of Russian Like when you
Speaker 1: need to bomb your own cities and your infrastructure to
Speaker 1: maintain control, you are not strong. And if he does,
Speaker 1: even if he does make it out of this, he's
Speaker 1: going to make it a lot weaker. And you know
Speaker 1: that's not necessarily good news either, just so you know,
Speaker 1: because even if he does survive, there will be a
Speaker 1: lot of bloodshed, and the military has shown obviously no
Speaker 1: qualms of killing innocent civilians. A lot of people could
Speaker 1: die in some sort of arms stand off between the
Speaker 1: two And at the current moment, it really does seem
Speaker 1: like either Putin has got to die as a result
Speaker 1: of this. I don't see how it can get resolved.
Speaker 1: This could all turn very ugly. Then the question of
Speaker 1: what the hell is Putin going to do. Let's say
Speaker 1: the thing is really successful and they make it to Moscow.
Speaker 1: What if people start turning on Putin?
Speaker 2: What is he going to do?
Speaker 1: He has total command and control of the Russian nuclear
Speaker 1: arsenal of don't forget the Russian nuclear doctrine basically says
Speaker 1: he's the one who gets to decide whenever they launch
Speaker 1: and what they do. So that's huge uncertainty. What will
Speaker 1: Putin do if is back against the wall? Will he
Speaker 1: escalate the war in Ukraine? You know that wouldn't be
Speaker 1: completely out outside the Roman possibility. Although logistically obvious, he's
Speaker 1: going to be a challenge. We don't know what he's
Speaker 1: going to do. How is he going to be able
Speaker 1: to keep power at this point? You know, who will
Speaker 1: the oligarch's side with should note that most of the
Speaker 1: power centers inside of Russia have come out in back Putin.
Speaker 1: Kadirov and Chechnya has come out and issued statements of support.
Speaker 1: Others have all you know, oligarchs and leaders have all
Speaker 1: come out and denounced the coup. But you know, you
Speaker 1: can denounce, but are you really going to work that
Speaker 1: hard against it? You know, that's the real question. Are
Speaker 1: we about to see an open, massive civil war inside
Speaker 1: of Russia. One of the most stunning images I saw
Speaker 1: was actually people Wagner guys inside of Rossov, laying on
Speaker 1: the ground, you know, in the middle of the city,
Speaker 1: pointing guns at the Russian military. They had duct tape,
Speaker 1: you know, around their arms to distinguish themselves, and it's
Speaker 1: just like a scene out of the nineteen you know,
Speaker 1: nineteen seventeen to nineteen nineteen rebellion in civil war inside
Speaker 1: of Russia, of you know, the Whites and the Reds
Speaker 1: against each other. You have tens of thousands of people
Speaker 1: died in that conflict. So it's just stunning to be
Speaker 1: able to see this all in real time. So look,
Speaker 1: that's pretty much what we know right now.
Speaker 2: We can come back.
Speaker 1: We'll update everything everyone if anything else really big happens,
Speaker 1: and encourage everybody to maintain and just pay attention to
Speaker 1: to really like what is going on, you know, Before
Speaker 1: I sign off, I'm just making sure that nothing else
Speaker 1: major significant has happened that we wanted to update everyone.
Speaker 1: But I think that's a pretty good background as to
Speaker 1: the current ku inside of Russia, as to kind of
Speaker 1: how it started, where the main contours of where things
Speaker 1: are going, and of what possible endgames and all of
Speaker 1: that will look like.
Speaker 2: So all of us wait and see mode. But no question.
Speaker 1: We're absolutely witnessing history right now. It's an absolutely stunning development.
Speaker 1: And just thank you to all the premium subscribers. They
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Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot com if you're able to help us out,
Speaker 1: but otherwise, I think I'll sign off for now and
Speaker 1: I'll continue to keep everybody updated if needed.