1 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newsworld. My guest is a very 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: good friend in somebody I really admire, Hermann Perchner. He 3 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: is the founding president of the American Foreign Policy Council, 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: a nonprofit public policy organization headquartered in Washington, DC. Under 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 1: his leadership, AFPC has hosted Washington events for hundreds of 6 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: foreign officials. His travels have taken him to most areas 7 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: of the world, including more than sixty five trips to 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 1: the former Soviet Union since nineteen eighty nine and more 9 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: than thirty trips to China since nineteen ninety four. Closet 10 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: and I have had the opportunity to travel with him 11 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: in both countries, and it's amazing how many people he 12 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: knows and how widely accepted he is. In addition to 13 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: his duties at AFPC, he directed the national security team 14 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: advising my two twelve presidential campaign. So I have a 15 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: personal debt to him, and I'm really pleased to welcome 16 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: my guest, Herman Persher. He's here to talk about his book, 17 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: which is very relevant in this moment post putin succession, stability, 18 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: and Russia's future. Herman, thank you for joining me. Luke, 19 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: thank you for inviting me. It's always a pleasure to 20 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: be with you. This is kind of an amazing time. 21 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: You've been looking at the Soviet Union and now Russia 22 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: for a very long time. You founded the American Foreign 23 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: Policy Council back in nineteen eighty two. Given your knowledge 24 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: of both Russia and Ukraine, let's just start with sort 25 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: of basics. But what do you think Putin's intent is? 26 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: What is his end goal? Hezarn Go was absorbing all 27 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: of Ukraine in two thousand and five. I've heard a 28 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: a monograph which is still available on Amazon and other 29 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: places called Reviving Greater Russia in the Future of Russia's 30 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 1: borders with Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan by Megan Georgia. So if 31 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: you wanted to look for it, you could see Russian 32 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: designs on all those territories that long ago. In two 33 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: thousand and one, Russia passed the Law on the Expansion 34 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: of the Russian Federation two thousand and one. That was 35 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: a law that was used to annex Crimea. You were 36 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: an imperial country, and the imperial aims haven't been disguised 37 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: for anybody that wanted to look. Do you think for 38 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: him victory has to involve the whole country. Yes, there's 39 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: some chance they may leave out part of Ukraine that's 40 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: eastern right Catholic, and it had been under the Austra 41 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: Hunger and Empire rather than Zarus Russia for many years. 42 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: But my guess is he bought the whole country and law. 43 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 1: So at the same time, it seems that they're having 44 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: difficulty with their military trying to actually occupy the whole country. 45 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: I think people tend to forget how big Ukraine is. 46 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: It's almost the size of Texas. But do you think 47 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: it's actually possible for Russia to occupy the whole country? No, 48 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: I think it's impossible, But you're asking about Putin's aspirations, 49 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: and aspirations and capability are different. Who doesn't have the 50 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: capability to do it? So, as this has evolved in 51 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: the last few weeks, there's a growing pressure back home 52 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: in Russia, and the Kremlins passed a law criminalizing independent 53 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: war reporting and protest against the war, with penalties up 54 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: to fifteen years in jail, and there are some reports 55 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: that over fourteen thousand people have been arrested in connection 56 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: with anti war actions. What is your sense about the 57 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: level of discontent, the level of discontent is high and 58 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: has been high for some years. I've got a National 59 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: Interest piece in May of two about Prutent's precarious future, 60 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: and I noted that the living standard of average Russian 61 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: had gone down five in the previous six years, that 62 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: the growth rate of the Russian economy had been point 63 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: six percent, one fifth of the global average, and more 64 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: than half of the eighteen to twenty four year olds 65 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 1: wanted to leave the country. And that's one of the 66 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: reasons he went into Ukraine as a diversion. It's also 67 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: one of the reasons he's having a problem in Ukraine 68 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: because eighteen to twenty four year olds are so anxious 69 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: to die for Russian imperialism. In the Ukraine campaign, he's 70 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: been attacking health facilities, and he's clear that when they 71 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 1: figured out they couldn't defeat the Ukrainian army, they went 72 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 1: to basically a terror campaign and they been using area 73 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 1: weapons against civilians. The maternity hospital that became very famous 74 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 1: with a pregnant woman, Ultimately she and her baby both died. 75 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: I think so far eighteen healthcare facilities in Ukraine have 76 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: been bombed. At what point do these become war crimes 77 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: and is it conceivable that Putin could be charged with 78 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: war crimes. I think they are war crimes already. I 79 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: think he could be charged, but I don't think you'll 80 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: see him sitting in the docket. It's unlikely that Putin 81 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: will leave Russia for any place, with the possible exception 82 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: of China or North Korea. I didn't know this. Apparently 83 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: the International Criminal Court and the Hague has announced that's 84 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 1: open to war crimes investigation. Is that just pro forma? 85 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: We'll find out. I think the Europeans may be serious 86 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: about it, so basically, I mean, one of the side 87 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: effects could be that he couldn't travel to a whole 88 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: range of places because it then would be subject to 89 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: arrest and deportation, which happened to the Chilean dictator Pinochet, 90 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: who ended up I think, being deported from Spain. But 91 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: in terms of Russia internally, do you think that pities 92 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: bother people? Do you think that he's still the de 93 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: facto leader? I think the trust is in Ukraine? Do 94 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: bother the population who's only gradually finding out what's really 95 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: going on. When you have total control the media, it's 96 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: easy to get people a distorted point of view of 97 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: what's going on. I remember shortly after the fall of 98 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, I posted a note that the former 99 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: economists fro Russia survey across a Chenko. He was my 100 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 1: house guest for a couple of weeks. He authored the 101 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: first private property law and the Russian Federation, And after 102 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: being here two weeks he turned to me one night, 103 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: very sad. He said, I had access to things others didn't. 104 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,559 Speaker 1: I knew I was being light to, but I didn't 105 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 1: know how much I was being light to be. As 106 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: the Russian people find out how much they've been light to, 107 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 1: there will be poor. Russian culture is not KGB culture. 108 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: KGB culture is what's running Russia today. Do you think 109 00:06:55,800 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 1: that watching the casualties in military, the casualties including senior generals, 110 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: to what extent do you think his hold on the 111 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: military's weakening. I think it is weakening, and it's impossible 112 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: to know from the outside how much it's weakened. Before 113 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: he went in as a general by the name of Eigershoffer, 114 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: Anti West Anti NATO as a status may be like 115 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: Petrayus and Russia maybe even more. He had the Reserve 116 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:25,119 Speaker 1: Officers Association, which is important in Russia, and he called 117 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: for Putin's resignation and called any invasion of Ukraine folly. 118 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: Now would he have done that if he didn't have 119 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: a substantial following with an actibuted military I think not. 120 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: I was very struck with that because it made me 121 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: realize that in some ways Russia is an authoritarian rather 122 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: than a tutolitarian state. I mean, if you tried that 123 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 1: he agesian ping, everybody who signed the letter would be going. 124 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: I think so. But it also has to do with 125 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: the role of the military. Putin's based a support of 126 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: intelligence services, and he's trying to put of course people 127 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: on the top of the military. But Shigu, the Defense minister, 128 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: is not a professional military man, and not everybody that 129 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: Putin's put on top is popular with the military rank 130 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: and file. And after this disaster that's unfolded, you have 131 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: to wonder how secure the people at the top of 132 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: the military are if they don't turn against this invasion. 133 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: At some point, I noticed that you joined with twenty 134 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: five other leading foreign security experts and signing a bipartisan 135 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: let a calling for a limited no fly zone over Ukraine. 136 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: What is a limited no fly zone? We issued that 137 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: at the time where Russia was agreeing to humanitarian corridors 138 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: to permit the infirm, the children, and the older people 139 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: to leave, and every time they did that, the Russians 140 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: would bomb or break with our chillery. The evacuation routes. 141 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: My thought and signing that was a Russia agrees to 142 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: a corridor and continues not to permit it to happen. 143 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: There should be free space for a period of time 144 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: that the non combatants could get out. You know. The 145 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: counter argument is that a no fly zone to be 146 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: enforced would eventually lead to shooting down Russian aircraft and 147 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: that would just lead to a much broader war. I mean, 148 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: do you think that would happen or do you think 149 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: they would be intimidated? Well, I note the volume calling 150 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: for a no fly zone got louder, Putin started letting 151 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: people evacuate. The two thousand got out of Mariupo in 152 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: recent days. So I think Putin has his hands with Ukraine. 153 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: Is his hands so full? He's had asked for help 154 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: from China and from Syria. Does he want to engage 155 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: NATO in the US too? No? So you think we 156 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: actually could be more risk taking than we are right now? Yes, 157 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:21,439 Speaker 1: I found your book post putin succession, stability in Russian's future, 158 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 1: your knowledge of Russian history, and your knowledge of thinking 159 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 1: intellectually and analytically about this. It was fascinating. First of all, 160 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: what led you to write the book. I began to 161 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: understand that Putin was not on firm ground inside of Russian. 162 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: There's an old Learnen saying that's from the spark of 163 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: flame can be let and in Russian it's easy. Creeve 164 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: osgar Reza Klaumbia. And what he meant by that is 165 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 1: when there's a revolutionary condition, some little event can cause 166 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: it to erupt and major things can happen. Think of 167 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: the vendor that set himself on fire in Tunisia, that 168 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: began the air of spring. So when I came to 169 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: the conclusion that Russia internally was unstable from its own 170 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: independence movements, primarily in the Muslim areas of Russia, but 171 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 1: not entirely from the discontent of the citizens who have 172 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: hospitals that don't have hot water. Because Putin has big 173 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: datchets and his crowdness billions abroad, I decided maybe we 174 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: should take a look at what comes after Putin, because 175 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: I believe if he goes the window to influence events 176 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: may be small, and there should be contingency plans by 177 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,839 Speaker 1: the United States, but also other countries. I note the 178 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: books in the Ukrainian language and also the Russian language. 179 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: Now you put together a series of steps, but you 180 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: also go back and look at whose lost power in 181 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: the past. And I think you had somebody on your 182 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: team who actually analyzed dictatorship replacements over a very long 183 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: time in terms of Russian traditions, and you found some 184 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: fascinating patterns, some of which I was really surprised by. Yes, well, 185 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: we did a study of one hundred and twenty post 186 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: World War two dictatorships of countries of ten million or more. 187 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: Forty two percent of those people were kicked out by 188 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: coups and twenty percent assassinated. And those percentages helped true 189 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: even for people that have held power for as long 190 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 1: as he's aware of his vulnerabilities, especially when he sees 191 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: the rest in the country. And I think it's one 192 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: of the reasons that they launched defensive in Ukraine thought 193 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: a small, successful war may solidify his internal position. My 194 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 1: sense was that he shared to the joint chiefs Millie's 195 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: view that they'd be in even three days and probably 196 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: assumed that the Ukrainians would just collapse. I think that's right, 197 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: and it's interesting that Milly had that point of view 198 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: as well as our intel community. Nobody that had traveled 199 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, they had got out out of the capitol 200 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: and talk to the official interlocker tours would make such 201 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: a statement. You know. I was there last in May. 202 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: I was under front lines, I was in Mariupo. I 203 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: traveled around the country, and it was clear that the 204 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: Ukrainians were going to fight, and they had their version 205 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 1: of never again. Giving their history under Russian role, they 206 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: simply were willing to risk their lives so their families 207 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: and children and grandchildren would live under the Russian goal. 208 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: So I think there was a massive intelligence failure by 209 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: the US predict that things would collapse so quickly, you know, 210 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 1: I mean, so take this to an aside for a second. 211 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: You had a very similar intelligence failure about the Taliban 212 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: and Afghanistan. I mean, to what extent should we be 213 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: worried that we have seventeen intelligence agencies spend tens of 214 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 1: billions of dollars and they're wrong. I think we should 215 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: be very worried. And part of it is some of 216 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,439 Speaker 1: our intelligence people tend to stay in the embassies and 217 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: in the cities and don't get out. I think there's 218 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 1: a risker version and we're paying a price for it. 219 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: One of the most fascinating things you do, which really 220 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 1: got me thinking differently, is you talk about the elements 221 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: of the capacity for force versus the elements that don't 222 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: have the capacity for force. Could you go into that 223 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: FROMI or two, because you really explain it in a 224 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: way that I was recently teaching, of course for major 225 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: generals that I was walking them through your book, and 226 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: this whole notion of when you look at a place 227 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 1: like Russia, that you got to figure out who you 228 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: need to pay attention to. It's always those with the 229 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: guns that decide in a society like Russia. There was 230 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: a movie out called The Death of Stalin, and it 231 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: deals with how your leadership struggle unfolded in the Soviet 232 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: Union after Stalin died and Vary, the intelligence chief that 233 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: killed so many millions, who was getting ready to make 234 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: the power play and the polar Buro met. He had 235 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: all his troops protecting the polar Buro. They were at 236 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: all the access points, and then you see they're Soviet military. 237 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: It's leadership, and they had more guns, so they just 238 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 1: told the intelligence people, guys, we don't want to kill you, 239 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: so just leave, and they left, and Area was taken 240 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: to jail and kill. And I think today Putin has 241 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: tried to protect himself by having a national guard that 242 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: reports directly to him, some hundreds of thousands of people, 243 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: and it's running by Zlatov, who is his form of 244 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: bodyguard in chief of presidential security. And that's probably pretty 245 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: good if oligarts by themselves on to make a coup, 246 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: but if the military gets involved, it's no contest. And 247 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: if the oligarts find ways to divide his national guard 248 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: to divide other institutions within Russia that have forced it 249 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: won't matter. Putin will be gone. And I think at 250 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: some point he will be gone. Question is Holland Len 251 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: I don't think he's a power two years from now, 252 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: maybe not too much from now. I've seen the death 253 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: of Stalin at least four times now, and I think 254 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: that the scene where Zukov shows up is one of 255 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: the greatest entrance scenes I've ever seen in terms of 256 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: a sense of power, which apparently the original Zukov had. 257 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he was a personality by the other house, 258 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: that's right. So you sort of wonder. I mean, when 259 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: you have Putin publicly humiliating his intelligence chief, which he 260 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: did the other day, and you have this, I think 261 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: the top two guys in the intelligence community are now 262 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: under house arrests. I mean there are tensions there that 263 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: are real, and they get to be dangerous when they 264 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: were the guys with guns. Yep. I couldn't agree more. 265 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: The other thing you covered, which I was really surprised 266 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: by it. I didn't realize that after Lennon died that 267 00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: there's actually about a ten year power struggle before Stalin 268 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: finally consolidates. I'd always thought it was much faster than that. 269 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,360 Speaker 1: In today's Russia, it's a similar thing. If Kutin goes, 270 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 1: there's likely to be a power struggle that will last 271 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: for some years until somebody consolidates power. And during that 272 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:23,360 Speaker 1: time it's predictable that Russia will withdraw from aggressive activity 273 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: in the world, will give it a minimum of fig 274 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: leaf to the West to try to relieve sanctions, and 275 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 1: depending on how long it takes to consolidate power, it 276 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 1: might even invite aggression by China and the Russian Far East, 277 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 1: the Russian Far East and eastern Siberia until eighteen fifty 278 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: eight and eighteen sixty were China, and at some point 279 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: China will want to get that back. If chaos comes 280 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: to Russia, they may make a move, not by military means, 281 00:17:49,200 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: but by moving millions of Chinese in. It's one of 282 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: the things I think we underestimate in the West that 283 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: there's a huge Russian vulnerability to just the sheer population 284 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 1: weight of China. You have a Russia which is declining 285 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 1: in population, with males having remarkably short lives. Somebody said 286 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: it's equivalent of Guatemala and lower than any other supposedly 287 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: modern country. Raises questions about how modern Russia is now 288 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: and you have this enormous population in China, so that 289 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: the imbalance along the Siberian border is just astonishing. I've 290 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 1: done the full length of the Russia China border three 291 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: times on the ground, so I know the territory pretty well. 292 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 1: If you go east of the Euros, this is a 293 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,199 Speaker 1: vast area. You could sit the whole United States in it. 294 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: Much of it is courses near the Arctic and frozen 295 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 1: and not well populated. But there may be only twenty 296 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: two million people in that entire area, and in the 297 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: Russian Far East maybe six million, and you have well 298 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 1: over one hundred million Chinese. Right on the other side 299 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 1: of the border. It has an area of black earth 300 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: that could to support fifty million people and farming. The 301 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: Chinese used to own that. They want it back at 302 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 1: some point, and people on both sides of the border 303 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: understand that. I always thought part of the reason that 304 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: they kept as many nuclear weapons as they did was 305 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: because they know they cannot deal with China conventionally. Well, 306 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 1: that's right. The danger is conquest by population. For instance, 307 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,360 Speaker 1: in the Chinese province of Sin John, this is where 308 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: the weakers are. It's in the western part of China. 309 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: There are only four percent Han Chinese at the under 310 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: World War two. Now the Han Chinese are about half, 311 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: and they have all the important positions. What happens in Siberia, 312 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: Suddenly in this area of say the fariest six million Russians, 313 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: you suddenly have twenty million Chinese. It's a China or 314 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 1: Russian without a shopping fire. And if the Chinese conventional 315 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: forces move in to make sure their citizens are not 316 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: discriminated against, will Russia start in nuclear war can't win. 317 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: So the Chinese pressure from the east, the Muslim pressure 318 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 1: from the south, and the pressure that life is better 319 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 1: everywhere when you cross the border to the west. So 320 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: that city in Moscow, you're really juggling some very very 321 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 1: tricky situations, very tricky and the independence movements from the 322 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: Muslims is not just in the Caucasus, Kazan, Askirtia, Tartarstan 323 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: you have an independence movement as well. These are the 324 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: last remnants of the Mungols. It's a Muslim area of 325 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: Mungo heritage. So you make the point that there's a 326 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: probable limit on where the range of successors will probably 327 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 1: come from. Could you describe what sort of in general terms, 328 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: will you think if there is a putent successor in 329 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: the in the future, that person will be like, I 330 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,679 Speaker 1: think the person has to come from the force ministries 331 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: because change can't be made without guns. Those without guns 332 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: going to want their people in place. I think it 333 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: can't be somebody that is against corruption, because the holy 334 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 1: elite have gotten rich on corruption, and if somebody came 335 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: in that had announced in the beginning they're going to 336 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: put people in jail for corruption. I think that candidates 337 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: going to have a rough time coming to power. I 338 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,639 Speaker 1: think it certainly will be a man, because Russia's a 339 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: very chauvinist country. I think it's likely to be somebody 340 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: that's on the scene already as a governor, as a minister, 341 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 1: maybe the mayor of Moscow, Sylvianen. It could be somebody 342 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,360 Speaker 1: like Putin. It just comes out of the weeds from 343 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: one of the intelligencies. Well, at some point the not 344 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: too distant future, this particular war will be over. How 345 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: hard do you think it will be for Russia to 346 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 1: get reintegrated back in the world after this, and how 347 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: much do you think the damage is permanent? I think 348 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: it depends on what comes after Putin. You know, Nikita 349 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: Khrushchev was ousted two years after the Cuban missile crisis, 350 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: and in talking to a member now dead of the 351 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 1: Polar euro at auster Kruschev I was told that one 352 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 1: of the reasons for his auster was he was thought 353 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: to be too reckless, that he put the country needlessly 354 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: at risk. You know, which, of course begged the question, 355 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: is this fiasco of Putin in Ukraine? It and increasingly 356 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,479 Speaker 1: it looks like that and mis judging the response from 357 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 1: the West that's put at risk the lifestyles of the 358 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: powerful in Russia. Is that sufficient for a critical mass 359 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: of the elite to decide his recklessness has put us 360 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: at risk. We don't like not being able to travel 361 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: between our mansions in Europe. We don't like the idea 362 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,680 Speaker 1: that we can't do business. We don't like the idea 363 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: that we can't access our funds. We don't like the 364 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 1: idea that has made natal stronger, not weaker. We don't 365 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: like the idea that he has turned Ukrainians against Russians 366 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 1: for generations. So if you start having that type of feeling, 367 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: it may be the grounds for Austin Putin, But it 368 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: could take time to organize. I don't know that it 369 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: takes two years away. It did with Kushev. But people 370 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 1: are going to be cautious at the beginning who they 371 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: talk to when you talk about the mechanics of pushing 372 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: somebody out of power. When this is over, is it 373 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: your expectation that there will still be a Ukraine? Yes, 374 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: I think Ukraine will survive. And if it survives, do 375 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: we have some obligation to reach out around the world 376 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: and create the equivalent of a martial plan to help 377 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: rebuild it absolutely, and I think there's sentiment for that 378 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 1: in Europe as well as in the United States. Krainian 379 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 1: people have suffered massively. Take this little town of Mariupo. 380 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: They in less than a month have lost more people, 381 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 1: primarily civilians, than Americans lost servicemen in twenty years fighting 382 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,919 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan. This is a country one eighth the size 383 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 1: of the United States, and that number of two thousand, 384 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: which are the ones that were counted dead, is going 385 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 1: to go up. The deputy mayor of Mariupo thinks it 386 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: will go into five figures, but they don't know. Because 387 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: there's so many collapsed buildings, they don't know who's buried 388 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: under them and who won't show up, who got out, 389 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 1: who didn't. We have some obligation to help them return 390 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: to normal life, I think. Listen, I want to thank 391 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: you for joining me, as you know both Clifts and 392 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: are very big fans of yours and very big fans 393 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: of the work that you do. I really recommend very 394 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 1: highly everybody your book Postputent Succession, Stability in Russia's Future, 395 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: and I really appreciate Herban You're joining me today. Thanks you. 396 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: It's a pleasure being with you. Thank you to my guest, 397 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: Herman Perchner. You can get a link to buy his 398 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 1: book post Putin Succession, Stability and Russia's Future on our 399 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced by 400 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:23,679 Speaker 1: Gingwich three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, 401 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: our producer is Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 402 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 1: Your work for the show was created by Steve Penley 403 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: Special thanks the team at Gingwich three sixty. If you've 404 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts 405 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: and both rate us with five stars and give us 406 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,679 Speaker 1: a review so others can learn what it's all about. 407 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 1: Right now, Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign up 408 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: for my three free weekly columns at Gingridge three sixty 409 00:25:53,680 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 1: dot com slash newsletter. I'm newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld.