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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner.
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Speaker 3: Fedcher Jerome Powell said that officials are wary of potential
Speaker 3: risks to the labor market from higher interest rates. That's
Speaker 3: as they seek more evidence that inflation is slowing down.
Speaker 4: The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest
Speaker 4: Further progress and more good data would strengthen our confidence
Speaker 4: that inflation is moving sustainably toward two percent. We continue
Speaker 4: to make decisions meeting by meeting. We know that reducing
Speaker 4: policy restraint too soon or too much could stall or
Speaker 4: even reverse the progress that we've seen on inflation.
Speaker 3: Powell careful not to offer any kind of timeline for
Speaker 3: interest rate cuts, However, investors are betting that the cuts
Speaker 3: will begin in September. The US Central Bank is weighing
Speaker 3: cuts after holding its benchmark at two decade highs for
Speaker 3: nearly a year. Palal also said that regulators are close
Speaker 3: to revamping a plan, a plan to force the big
Speaker 3: banks to hold significantly more capital. We're joined by James
Speaker 3: Demmer at cio at Main Street Research. James a little
Speaker 3: bit more on Pale here. It seems like he really
Speaker 3: wanted to acknowledge that they are fully aware of the
Speaker 3: challenges of the slowing in the labor market, but he
Speaker 3: also wanted to make the point quite strongly that the
Speaker 3: fight against inflation is not yet over, and he was
Speaker 3: really careful not to talk about the timing. Is that
Speaker 3: the right balance in your view?
Speaker 5: Yeah, they're bending him, but they haven't broken him yet.
Speaker 5: So it's getting closer to that point where he wants
Speaker 5: to get and I think he's right. You know, they
Speaker 5: really want to wait till the data really shows obviously
Speaker 5: that the inflation boogeyman is gone before they go ahead
Speaker 5: and they cut rates. And they've got to be careful here,
Speaker 5: you know, you do see the employment numbers coming down,
Speaker 5: the inflation numbers are obviously coming down and trending down.
Speaker 5: They do want to be careful waiting too long, and
Speaker 5: I think that's why he's sort of like starting the
Speaker 5: dialogue's changed right from a few quarters ago. He's starting
Speaker 5: to lean towards it's a question of when, not if.
Speaker 5: Then we do think it's this year.
Speaker 2: So the swaps market right now is projecting about two
Speaker 2: rate cuts between now and the end of the year.
Speaker 2: Maybe the first comes in September. Is that possible? Is
Speaker 2: that pretty much the way you see it.
Speaker 5: We do see that. You know, we've been of the
Speaker 5: thought that earnings are driving this market and the FED
Speaker 5: might not even need to cut, but the most recent
Speaker 5: data on inflation employment suggests yes, they're probably going to
Speaker 5: have to come to it, and I'd say say as
Speaker 5: early as September. They don't want to get them too
Speaker 5: close to the election and be viewed as, oh gosh,
Speaker 5: we're doing this from sort of political stance, so I
Speaker 5: think they do it sooner then later in September would
Speaker 5: make would make sense. And that's just another accelerant, if
Speaker 5: you will, to this rocket launching bow market that we're in.
Speaker 5: You know, when the FED comes, that's just going to
Speaker 5: be more fuel, another booster for this rocket.
Speaker 3: James, do you go back and forth about being really
Speaker 3: comfortable with market conditions and being also very worried or
Speaker 3: are you steadfast in either one of the two.
Speaker 5: I am in a constant state of optimism and concern.
Speaker 3: Here here join the group.
Speaker 5: Thirty five years of this. But I will say this
Speaker 5: isn't one of the best setups I've seen for equities
Speaker 5: this year than I've seen in decades. So the optimism
Speaker 5: definitely overtakes a concern. And you know, we think this
Speaker 5: is the certainly the first phase of a very powerful
Speaker 5: ball market, and that's the phase investors don't want to miss.
Speaker 5: You know, if you look back at any bowl markets
Speaker 5: the first year and a half, where you get this
Speaker 5: acceleration like rocket launch like acceleration, then you get to
Speaker 5: cruising speed, which I think is probably into next year
Speaker 5: and beyond. But so here where you know, my optimism
Speaker 5: is overwhelming a concert there are concerns we have. I
Speaker 5: do think we're going to get a five percent at
Speaker 5: least seven percent correction between now and the end of
Speaker 5: the year, even though we do have high target numbers
Speaker 5: for the end of the year on markets in general.
Speaker 2: So in addition to addressing monetary policy today, Powell was
Speaker 2: talking about new banking regulations, and he indicated that regulators
Speaker 2: are close to agreeing to some type of modification to
Speaker 2: that plan to force the big banks to hold more capital,
Speaker 2: so maybe they'll be required to hold a little bit less.
Speaker 2: I thought it interesting that the financials actually led the
Speaker 2: S and P five hundred higher today. It was only
Speaker 2: up a tenth of one percent. Nonetheless, the entire group
Speaker 2: looked pretty robust. We've got earnings at the end of
Speaker 2: the week from some of the money centers. How are
Speaker 2: you feeling about the big banks these days?
Speaker 5: You know, Brian, this is a or Doug, this is
Speaker 5: a period where investors really want to own the banks.
Speaker 5: These are historically low pe ratios on the financials, in
Speaker 5: the banks specifically, and I think the banks even shrugged
Speaker 5: that off today based on the fact that the earnings
Speaker 5: are coming. I think the earnias are going to be
Speaker 5: better than expected. The multiples are low, and the FED
Speaker 5: is nodding to lowering rates, and that is going to
Speaker 5: be a boon for the banks, particularly the big ones.
Speaker 5: So I think investors want to be really careful about
Speaker 5: avoiding them. I think investors want to step in here
Speaker 5: or at any weakness and own them.
Speaker 3: It's tricky with the banks, obviously, I mean the big
Speaker 3: banks in particular, JP Morgan's done very well this year.
Speaker 3: I think the banks generally have done well. They've been
Speaker 3: one of the sectors that has been putting on gains
Speaker 3: up there, close to with the tech companies JP Morgan
Speaker 3: going from one to seventy up to you know, between
Speaker 3: two hundred and ten. But then you know you've got
Speaker 3: various segments in there. Regional banks, no, no, you know
Speaker 3: you've got companies like you know, the credit card companies
Speaker 3: that have done very well. How do you actually target
Speaker 3: that area instead of buying buying, say, you know, a
Speaker 3: big ETF that puts them all in.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a really good question. I think investors have
Speaker 5: been way better off this year by by being more
Speaker 5: selective and not owning let's say a whole sector, because
Speaker 5: that way you can avoid the regionals really can't get
Speaker 5: out of their own way, and it makes sense they
Speaker 5: need they need rates to really come down for sure.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of commercial real estates attached to them
Speaker 5: and they don't have the strong balance sheets of the
Speaker 5: larger banks. So you know, this is the sort of cycle,
Speaker 5: this phase of it where you want to be a
Speaker 5: stock selector, and I think think you want to go
Speaker 5: with Larger is better, right, Bigger market share is better
Speaker 5: balance sheets in the banks, and then we use that
Speaker 5: same litmus test across other sectors like tech, you know,
Speaker 5: in healthcare and industrials. So bigger is better, particularly in
Speaker 5: the beginning of a new bowl market where investors, you know,
Speaker 5: haven't even gotten fully invested yet. There's still trillions of
Speaker 5: dollars of uninvested assets laying around that needs to come
Speaker 5: into the market, and so people are going to safety
Speaker 5: trade first. Big is better, better balance sheets.
Speaker 2: So if we can agree that there's a little bit
Speaker 2: of dry powder on the side I heard, I thought,
Speaker 2: I heard you say a moment ago seven to ten
Speaker 2: percent correction sometime here in the near term. What is
Speaker 2: the catalyst for that?
Speaker 5: Yeah, First of all, I would say it's way over due,
Speaker 5: but I think it could be. You know, we got
Speaker 5: earning season here again, which I think is going to
Speaker 5: be robust, but it would not take much if you
Speaker 5: had one tech company kind of come in. You know,
Speaker 5: expectations have gone up a lot in the tech analyst community,
Speaker 5: and if they're a little bit too high and one
Speaker 5: company comes in a little miss here or there, I
Speaker 5: think it could rattle the market. I'd say more like
Speaker 5: a five to seven percent correction, which is still more
Speaker 5: shallow than normal. And that's only because there's so much cash.
Speaker 5: Every time there's a bit of a pullback, right, all
Speaker 5: that trillions of dollars in cash is trying to get
Speaker 5: in on that weakness. But I think it might be
Speaker 5: an earning type of thing that you see a bit
Speaker 5: of a pullback, and I tell you investors, if they
Speaker 5: haven't been in this market, they really need to use
Speaker 5: that next sort of mini correction to put that money
Speaker 5: to work towards the end of the year.
Speaker 3: Quick question on PCs recovering, What does that tell.
Speaker 5: You, Well, you know, the bigger buyer of PCs, you know,
Speaker 5: there's obviously corporate money spent there, but there's a lot
Speaker 5: of individuals and consumers doing that. I was really interested
Speaker 5: to see Apples that was really fantastic. We've been a
Speaker 5: fan of Apple for quite some time. I think that
Speaker 5: it shows that the economy is still very resilient.
Speaker 3: Yep, all right, James, Thanks, good session. James Demmert there
Speaker 3: cio at Main Street Research. We are chatting now with
Speaker 3: Sean Monahan, visiting fellow in Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program
Speaker 3: at the CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Speaker 3: in Washington, d C. So the NATO meeting today and
Speaker 3: the speech by President Biden, Biden no doubt made more
Speaker 3: friends in Europe with the speech today, a strong defense
Speaker 3: of NATO, strong defense of Europe, strong defense of global institutions.
Speaker 3: And Biden said Sean that NATO is as strong as ever.
Speaker 3: Did he get that right?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: I love that.
Speaker 7: Thanks for having me. Well, I think Biden did. I mean,
Speaker 7: NATO needs to be as strong as it's ever been,
Speaker 7: because it's now the most challenging time really that NATO
Speaker 7: has ever faced. I mean, the Alliance is seventy five
Speaker 7: years old, created in nineteen forty nine as a bullwork
Speaker 7: against Soviet aggression in Europe. But now with Russia's war
Speaker 7: in Ukraine, war raging in Europe, the US, NATO's main
Speaker 7: ally kind of pivoting to East Asia. NATO really needs
Speaker 7: to up its game. This is a really dangerous time.
Speaker 7: And this week in Washington, I think we can expect
Speaker 7: allies to announce a series of measures that demonstrate that
Speaker 7: they're really stepping up.
Speaker 2: So mister Biden has been on the defensive as I'm
Speaker 2: sure you're well aware since the debate a couple of
Speaker 2: weeks back, and he had an interviewer sit down last Friday.
Speaker 2: One of the things that he was addressing in terms
Speaker 2: of accomplishments was the expansion of NATO. So during his
Speaker 2: presidency we have seen the addition of Finland and Sweden.
Speaker 2: Give us an understanding of Biden's influence on the Alliance
Speaker 2: in these last three and a half years.
Speaker 7: Sure. Well, the first thing that President Biden said, I
Speaker 7: think when he came into office with something like America
Speaker 7: is back and alliances are back, and he's really put
Speaker 7: that into practice. Yeah, the main achievement you mentioned it
Speaker 7: Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. NATO is now two members,
Speaker 7: two allies larger. Now, of course that's not just down
Speaker 7: to President Biden. The real reason that people of Finland
Speaker 7: and Sweden decided to join the NATO Alliance was because
Speaker 7: of mister Putin's actions. Mister Putin, if you like, has
Speaker 7: seen kind of Newton's third law of international politics in action,
Speaker 7: which is that every action has an equal and opposite reaction,
Speaker 7: and in reaction to his invasion of Ukraine, Finland as
Speaker 7: Weeden ad opted to join NATO. But under mister Biden's watch,
Speaker 7: I mean, spending has gone up in Europe. The perennial
Speaker 7: complaint from Washington that Europeans weren't pulling their weight. And
Speaker 7: in the four years mister Biden has been in office,
Speaker 7: we've seen a drastic increase in defense spending by European allies.
Speaker 7: Back four years ago and in nine of them spent
Speaker 7: the two percent of DP on defense. Now twenty three
Speaker 7: of them do. That's an impressive achievement.
Speaker 3: So the action today the air defense systems, five long
Speaker 3: range air defense systems and F sixteen fighters. This is
Speaker 3: a show of unity. Does it make a difference, Will
Speaker 3: it in any way intimidate President Vladimir Putin?
Speaker 7: I mean yes and no. The need for more air
Speaker 7: defense systems and in particular the interceptors, the missiles that
Speaker 7: are fired from the ground at incoming missiles, was really
Speaker 7: demonstrated by the horrific, tragic attack really on the children's
Speaker 7: hospital in Ukraine that we saw a couple of days
Speaker 7: ago in an incredibly cynical move. That attack came alongside
Speaker 7: a wealth of other attacks across Ukraine by Russia's missile
Speaker 7: missile forces. And so you know the US, the West.
Speaker 7: NATO has been helping supporting Ukraine, providing a wealth of
Speaker 7: equipment and systems, and air defense has really been top
Speaker 7: of Kiev's shopping list for some time. They've got some
Speaker 7: more systems, but they need a lot more. And this
Speaker 7: is where NATO this week is going to have to
Speaker 7: announce some measures to commit in more aid in the
Speaker 7: long term to Ukraine and also to commit to boost
Speaker 7: NATO allies owned defense industrial basis to produce that equipment
Speaker 7: in fruture, both for Ukraine and for NATO's own purposes.
Speaker 2: Do you think about the rise that we have seen
Speaker 2: in some far right parties, whether it's Italy or France,
Speaker 2: as having an impact on NATO at some point?
Speaker 7: It's hard to say. Look, NATO is a collection and
Speaker 7: alliance of democracies. There's thirty two of them now so
Speaker 7: over seventy five years, and there were twelve nations to
Speaker 7: beginning with. There's been many elections, many changes in governing
Speaker 7: parties among NATO allies, and through all of that volatility,
Speaker 7: NATO has endured, and NATO endures because it offers a
Speaker 7: clear deal to the allies that are part of it.
Speaker 7: That strength in numbers together, they are stronger and can
Speaker 7: deter threats like Russia. NATO is also not just a
Speaker 7: military alliance, but of course it's a security community of
Speaker 7: nations with common values, so it endures for those reasons too.
Speaker 7: So it's celebrating seventy five years. I think we'll see
Speaker 7: many more years out of NATO.
Speaker 3: Yet, Sean, you're there in Washington, d C. I take it,
Speaker 3: And I'm curious about your perception of the President's performance.
Speaker 3: It's been so much in the spotlight, given the weakness
Speaker 3: in the debate a week and a half ago. Did
Speaker 3: he sound like a commander in chief? Did he look
Speaker 3: like the president of the United States? Your take?
Speaker 7: Yeah, of course. So yeah, I'm here in Washington, DC,
Speaker 7: and this is a talk of the town at the moment,
Speaker 7: and of course it's NATO summit. There's lots of functions.
Speaker 7: I've just actually come from a function following the President's speech,
Speaker 7: and a lot of people were really saying that he
Speaker 7: put in an excellent performance as commander in chief. He
Speaker 7: was very strong and decisive, didn't hesitate, and also the
Speaker 7: bit of a surprise where he gave current sectory General
Speaker 7: Jan Stoltenburg the Medal of honor the highestvillion holla, and
Speaker 7: that was Yen Stoloma looked quite emotional. Actually, it was
Speaker 7: a bit of a surprise. So that was a nice
Speaker 7: a nice touch too. So I think Biden. President Biden
Speaker 7: always saw this week as a really important one. It's
Speaker 7: even more important for him now he's got the first
Speaker 7: speech out of the way. He's done really well. So
Speaker 7: on to the next two days of the summit.
Speaker 2: Sean, before we let you go. In the event that
Speaker 2: there is a second Trump administration, and I'm sure there
Speaker 2: has been a conversation across European countries, NATO Alliance countries
Speaker 2: in particular, about the changes that would happen under another
Speaker 2: Trump administration. Can you shed any perspective on that, what
Speaker 2: the nature of these conversations may have been or maybe yeah.
Speaker 7: Of course, as I said, NATO's and alliance of democracies
Speaker 7: and a feature of a NIS the democracies, elections happen
Speaker 7: very often, so particularly when the election is in the biggest,
Speaker 7: most powerful state in NATO, the US. You know, allies
Speaker 7: capitals are watching. But I think what they see is
Speaker 7: if it's Biden or if it's Trump. As I said,
Speaker 7: NATO presents a kind of very clear argument. It's really
Speaker 7: in the interest of Europeans and Americans to have a
Speaker 7: very strong NATO. Deterring war in Europe against NATO allies
Speaker 7: is far cheaper than fighting it. You know, European security
Speaker 7: is still American security at the end of the day.
Speaker 7: We'll learnt that throughout the twentieth century, and depending on
Speaker 7: the color of the government, I don't think that fundamental
Speaker 7: coret argument changes and I think the American people kind
Speaker 7: of seem to realize that too.
Speaker 3: Just to the battlefield. One final question on Ukraine in
Speaker 3: your assessment, does either side look ready for any kind
Speaker 3: of breakthrough?
Speaker 7: Not so much at the minute. I mean, I think
Speaker 7: mister if he was able to make a breakthrough, he
Speaker 7: would have done so to spoil the NATO summit. What
Speaker 7: was clear from the tax this week, which includes the
Speaker 7: attack on the fieldpil all.
Speaker 3: Right, Sean, thanks so much, Sean Monaghan. There from the
Speaker 3: csis the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We're joined
Speaker 3: by Adam Kohn's chief portfolio manager at Winthrop Capital Management.
Speaker 6: So J.
Speaker 3: Powell seems to have laid out this kind of script
Speaker 3: and it is pretty well scripted. It seems acknowledge a
Speaker 3: little softness in jobs, prepare the market, now watch the data,
Speaker 3: then updated jackson Hole, and then finally pull the trigger
Speaker 3: in September. Does the script need any editing?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 6: I think that's what the market is saying, is that
Speaker 6: we're going to get rate cuts in September. But that's
Speaker 6: dependent on this economic gata continuing to get worse and worse,
Speaker 6: and I think it has to get fairly bad before
Speaker 6: the FED is.
Speaker 1: Going to cut any rates.
Speaker 6: I keep coming back to the fact, you've got to
Speaker 6: look at the entire site of this FED, and when
Speaker 6: we go back to the beginning, when we kind of
Speaker 6: had this transitory talk, inflation was picking up, it was
Speaker 6: very apparent that inflation was an issue, yet the FED
Speaker 6: was very slow to act.
Speaker 1: Then. I think the reality is they're going to have.
Speaker 6: That same stance on the back end of the cycle,
Speaker 6: where they're going to be slow to respond to one
Speaker 6: or two data points. I think we're gonna have to
Speaker 6: see multiple consecutive data points pointing to both inflation decelerating
Speaker 6: and employment becoming an issue. So their dual mandate needs
Speaker 6: to be addressed before they're going to cut any rates.
Speaker 2: Sounds like a recipe for a policy mistake is that
Speaker 2: the way you see it.
Speaker 6: I think it's it's a setup for a potential because
Speaker 6: you know, they're they're walking a tight rope.
Speaker 1: Over the last year, it's looked pretty good.
Speaker 6: They've done a good job maintaining you know, people have
Speaker 6: used the narrative of soft landing or no landing, and
Speaker 6: we've seen that the US economy has remained extremely resilient
Speaker 6: despite higher interest rates.
Speaker 1: The problem is if you wait too long, and if
Speaker 1: you wait until the economy has completely rolled over to
Speaker 1: change policy, at that point, it's too late, and the
Speaker 1: policy mistake really would be that you push the US
Speaker 1: economy into disinflation or even worse, deflation.
Speaker 3: So you see that as the main policy mistake because
Speaker 3: it could be the way too soon or too or
Speaker 3: too late.
Speaker 6: I mean, it's a terrible tough job to have. I
Speaker 6: do not envy pal, So yeah, I mean that is
Speaker 6: the potential, right. If you cut too soon, you reignite inflation,
Speaker 6: and you kind of have some of the things we've
Speaker 6: seen historically historically where inflation seems to be done, seems
Speaker 6: to be dead, and then because policy moves too quickly
Speaker 6: in the other direction, inflation picks back up, So that
Speaker 6: is a risk. I do think that's a lower risk
Speaker 6: then the other side of that waiting too long and
Speaker 6: then seeing us move into disinflation.
Speaker 2: So how are you translating what you believe in the
Speaker 2: macro into an investment strategy? What are you doing these days?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, for us, the conviction call for probably
Speaker 6: the last twelve months has been high quality long duration bonds.
Speaker 6: I know it's not exciting, but for us, we look
Speaker 6: at the asymmetry of whatever investment we're in, and when
Speaker 6: we look across the universe of potential investments, long duration
Speaker 6: bonds have the biggest asymmetry, meaning that the potential for
Speaker 6: interest rates to go much higher is fairly low. So
Speaker 6: the other two scenarios are one, interest rates stay where
Speaker 6: they are for a longer period of time, and.
Speaker 1: I'm okay with that.
Speaker 6: I'm okay clipping you know, five percent coupons for the
Speaker 6: next you know, twelve months or so. Or The upside
Speaker 6: of that asymmetry is that interest rates come down. They
Speaker 6: collapse because either the Fed starts cutting or the market
Speaker 6: sees that, you know, the economy is rolling over quicker
Speaker 6: than we expected. And then you're gonna see rates come down,
Speaker 6: You're gonna see the price of bonds go up, so
Speaker 6: that that has been the highest conviction call for US.
Speaker 3: So for those people worried about recession coming on quickly,
Speaker 3: today you had Apple, Google, Walmart, and Costco hit all
Speaker 3: time highs. And that's a pretty good mix of consumer
Speaker 3: facing companies, right. Doesn't that tell you that recession's not
Speaker 3: very likely anytime soon?
Speaker 6: Well, I mean I think, you know, look, a stock
Speaker 6: in some ways is going to lead with what we
Speaker 6: what we see right now. It's not looking out to
Speaker 6: you know, what a company is going to be doing
Speaker 6: twelve months from now. And on the other side of that,
Speaker 6: I would say the companies just listed could probably weather
Speaker 6: that storm fairly well. I think when you look at
Speaker 6: the other side of the market, where you've seen you know,
Speaker 6: things like Tesla and n Video that have had corrections,
Speaker 6: that's a bigger tell of overvaluation met with a potential
Speaker 6: for a rolling over of the economy.
Speaker 1: And really what I would call what you just described
Speaker 1: is a flight to quality.
Speaker 6: I mean, when you look at those names, those are
Speaker 6: high quality, large cat names that they're high cash flowing,
Speaker 6: low debt, with actual earnings growth revenue growth. So when
Speaker 6: I look at those, I'm looking at a flight to quality,
Speaker 6: not necessarily just stocks taking off because they're consumer based
Speaker 6: and because the economy is necessarily waring, it's more of
Speaker 6: that defensive stance, even though those are some of those
Speaker 6: names are high growth names.
Speaker 2: Very quickly, Adam, as we look to earning season guidance,
Speaker 2: do you think we're going to get disappointing guidance?
Speaker 1: I don't.
Speaker 6: I actually think we'll see will continue to see guidance
Speaker 6: somewhat better than expected.
Speaker 1: I think that'll come from margin expansion. You'll continue to
Speaker 1: see things.
Speaker 6: Like job cuts help prop up earnings because margins are expanding.
Speaker 3: Hey, Adam, thanks very much for joining us. It's always good.
Speaker 3: You never know what questions you'll get and you handle
Speaker 3: them well. Adam Coombs, their chief portfolio Winthrop Capital Management.
Speaker 2: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you
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