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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Benchmark is brought to you by Stage Summit, the

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Speaker 1: world's largest gathering of small and medium businesses, featuring Sir

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Speaker 1: Richard Branson July in Chicago. Register with Promo code business

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Speaker 1: at stage summit dot com for just ninety dollars. As

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Speaker 1: a Japanese citizen living and working in San Francisco right now,

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Speaker 1: I like to think that I bring quite a lot

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Speaker 1: of innovation to the American I would agree that. Hi,

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Speaker 1: and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark, a show about the

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Speaker 1: inner workings of the global economy. I'm Tori stiwell and

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Speaker 1: economics reporter for Bloomberg News in our New York bureau today,

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Speaker 1: and I'm joined by my co host, Aki Ito, who

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Speaker 1: has a new title that she can tell you all

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Speaker 1: about shortly. Hey, Torry, how's it going. So it's a

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Speaker 1: it's a pretty I don't know, emotional show for us

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Speaker 1: ACKI because it's our last one, right, I know, very

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Speaker 1: bitter sweet. Why don't you tell everyone where you're moving

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Speaker 1: on to the greener pastures you're headed tour? Sure? So

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Speaker 1: I just changed teams within Bloomberg and I'm an editor

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Speaker 1: on the Tech team now, and so I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be helping with our launch of brand new and very

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Speaker 1: exciting tech brand under brad Stone. That's terrific and right

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Speaker 1: up your alley out there in Silicon Valley. Yeah, it's been.

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Speaker 1: It's been really fun and really exciting. I've had a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun with it. Uh, Tori, tell us where

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Speaker 1: you're gonna be. Come come this fall. This fall, I

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Speaker 1: will be locked in a library at law school. Somehow

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Speaker 1: the terrifying articles out of the New York Times and

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week haven't dissuaded me from going so amazing

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Speaker 1: and permanently hanging up your journalists hat right maybe, I mean,

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Speaker 1: who says you can't a home right? Like it could

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Speaker 1: always have? But well, we'll always have you back. What

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Speaker 1: what kind of law do you want to practice? I

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Speaker 1: am actually staying mom on that for now, just because

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Speaker 1: I figure it'll probably change once I get into law school.

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Speaker 1: So stay tuned. So if our listeners continue to follow

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Speaker 1: you on Twitter at Tori still, well maybe in three

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Speaker 1: weeks they'll find out. Yeah, probably in lots of like

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Speaker 1: boring legal jargon tweets from the Yale Lobby Library. Yeah exactly,

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Speaker 1: I love that. So for our final show together, we

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Speaker 1: thought we'd tackle a topic that seems to be everywhere

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Speaker 1: we look these days, and that is immigration, and specifically

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Speaker 1: how immigration affects our economy. Immigration has been a hugely

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Speaker 1: or should I say you ugly, I'm trying to do

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Speaker 1: my impersonation, get a little breathier like this, but it's

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Speaker 1: been a very important topic in the U S election,

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Speaker 1: and obviously Donald Trump has garnered a lot of support

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Speaker 1: from people who are concerned about the growing number of

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Speaker 1: newcomers from other countries here in the US right. And

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Speaker 1: in the meantime in the UK, of course, Brexit happened

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Speaker 1: and a lot of people who voted to leave the

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Speaker 1: EU did so because they wanted more control over the

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Speaker 1: number of people coming into the country, so kind of

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Speaker 1: this groundswell of anti immigration nativist sentiment and membership in

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Speaker 1: the EU is founded on four freedoms guaranteed to citizens

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Speaker 1: and companies, and one of those is a free movement

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Speaker 1: of people. But for a lot of voters in the UK,

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Speaker 1: that freedom became synonymous with uncontrolled immigration. So that's why

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Speaker 1: you wanted to use today's show to discuss exactly how

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Speaker 1: immigration effects an economy, because there does seem to be

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Speaker 1: a lot of emotion and debate about this issue, but

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Speaker 1: also a decent amount of misinformation. Right, And because immigration

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Speaker 1: is just such a broad topic, and inigration in the

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Speaker 1: US can mean something very different from in Japan or

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Speaker 1: in Brazil, we're going to be limiting our discussion today

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Speaker 1: to the US and to a lesser extent, the UK.

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Speaker 1: And so before we bring on our guest, let's run

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Speaker 1: through some quick facts about immigrants in the US to

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Speaker 1: set this stage. So to start, the US has more

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Speaker 1: immigrants than any other country in the world by far.

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Speaker 1: Pew Research Center estimates that the foreign born population residing

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Speaker 1: in the US reached a record forty two point four

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Speaker 1: million in twenty fourteen. That's about fourteen percent of our population.

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Speaker 1: And that does include documented as well as undocumented immigrants. Right,

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Speaker 1: this includes me too, right, that's right, right, Well, I'm

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Speaker 1: on a work visa here, so I guess that's a

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Speaker 1: nonimmigrant visa, but I'm a Japanese citizen and Mexicans account

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Speaker 1: for the largest share of this, followed by Asian immigrants

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Speaker 1: like me. Other Latin Americans came in third, Europeans and

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Speaker 1: Canadians came in fourth, and among the new arrivals, Asians

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Speaker 1: outnumbered Hispanics. Looking at the unauthorized immigrant population, it actually

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Speaker 1: grew very rapidly between nineteen and two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 1: but has since sort of leveled off, even declined a

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Speaker 1: little bit. It topped out around twelve point two million,

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Speaker 1: and now it's closer to eleven point two million, So

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Speaker 1: it's actually about a quarter of the U S's overall

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Speaker 1: foreign born population, right and zeroing in on the labor force,

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Speaker 1: which I think a lot of people care about. Last year,

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Speaker 1: there were twenty six point three million foreign born persons

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Speaker 1: in the US labor force, so that's about of the total.

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Speaker 1: So now that we've got those basics covered, let's get

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Speaker 1: our experts on here to really add some color to

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Speaker 1: this and help us discuss the arguments in support and

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Speaker 1: against immigration control or tighter immigration control. Giovanni Perry is

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Speaker 1: an economics professor at the University of California in Davis

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Speaker 1: who has done extensive research on immigration. Giovanni, welcome, well,

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Speaker 1: thank you, it's a pleasure to be here. Giovanni, tell

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Speaker 1: us a little bit about you and how you became

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Speaker 1: interested in immigration in the first place. Yes, there is

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a personal and the professional story.

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Speaker 1: So personally, I was a college student in Europe in

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Speaker 1: Italy in the early nineties, and there was the period

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Speaker 1: in which Western Europe had the first wave of Eastern

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Speaker 1: European immigrants. In Italy, they were mainly Albanian and then

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Speaker 1: immigrants from North Africa. And when I finished college, I

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Speaker 1: worked actually in a center that helped them to find

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Speaker 1: a job, to learn the language and put them on

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Speaker 1: their way, and I actually saw the huge amount of talent, abilities,

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Speaker 1: skills that there was there. And then as soon as

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Speaker 1: I finished with this, I came to the US as

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Speaker 1: a graduate student, and I was on the other side,

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Speaker 1: and I experienced how many graduate students were from all

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Speaker 1: over the world coming to the US with their talent,

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Speaker 1: abilities and motivation, and uh in Berkeley, I would say

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Speaker 1: that good half of the students that interacted with were

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Speaker 1: from the rest of the world. And so I really

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Speaker 1: started thinking how incredibly valuable this potential could have been

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Speaker 1: from an economic point of view. Professionally, I started my

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Speaker 1: career working on the impact of education, skills and abilities

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Speaker 1: on economic growth of American cities. I focused on the

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Speaker 1: US metropolitan areas in the last twenty years, and obviously

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Speaker 1: by researching this, the topic of immigration come very soon

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Speaker 1: because a lot of these cities have prospered and growth

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Speaker 1: thanks to the skill and ability of many immigrants, and

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Speaker 1: that's how I grew particularly interested. Now I really think

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Speaker 1: that immigration is one of the big forces that is

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Speaker 1: shaping our economic world and social world, and I think

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Speaker 1: we need to understand it much better than we do now.

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Speaker 1: Well gif any, it seems like the basic debate around immigration,

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Speaker 1: and correct me if I'm wrong, is that either helps

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Speaker 1: or hurts the economy. And it seems like there's also

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Speaker 1: some gray area in there, but there seems to be

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Speaker 1: that's the major fault line. So let's walk through the

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Speaker 1: claims on both side, and I think both sides, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: and I think on on the help side, the obvious

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Speaker 1: one in my head is that it makes the economy bigger.

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Speaker 1: We have more people working. Yes, so immigration increases the

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Speaker 1: size of the labor force, but more interestingly increases the

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Speaker 1: variety and the different number of skills and abilities that

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Speaker 1: there are in the labor force. For a modern economy,

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Speaker 1: it's very important to have available a large thick, as

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Speaker 1: economists to say, labor force that can do different tasks

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Speaker 1: and productive function, So you gave some number at the beginning.

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Speaker 1: I want to emphasize that immigration in the US has

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Speaker 1: been a very balanced and very highly represented throughout the

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Speaker 1: range of skills. So there are a lot of less

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Speaker 1: educated manual type of worker which are immigrants, but there

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Speaker 1: are also a lot of very highly and highly educated scientists, engineers,

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Speaker 1: and technology workers who are immigrants. So this very large

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Speaker 1: and broad spectrum of skills, combined with the fact that

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Speaker 1: when immigrants came into an economy, they not only supply labor,

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Speaker 1: but they also consume. They start companies, they invest, create

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Speaker 1: an increasing the size of the economy, and that's where

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Speaker 1: the positive impact of them come from, right right, So

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Speaker 1: on the low inside they might be people from more

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Speaker 1: developing economies who do jobs that other Americans don't want

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Speaker 1: to do. And then on the higher, higher income side,

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Speaker 1: the higher inside, it's kind of the high scaled immigration

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Speaker 1: that you hear a lot in Silicon Valley about the

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Speaker 1: need from more computer programmers and other technical talent. Yes,

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Speaker 1: so let me go a little bit more in depth

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Speaker 1: into this partition that you did, which I think is

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Speaker 1: very important. You use this word at the low end

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Speaker 1: of the education, so relatively unskilled manual workers do jobs

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Speaker 1: that Americans don't want to do. So the way economists

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Speaker 1: explain this is that Americans, because they have are becoming

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Speaker 1: more educated, they're also becoming older as a society, are

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Speaker 1: quickly moving out of some manually intensive, relatively unskilled type

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Speaker 1: of jobs. But the demand for this is relatively high.

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Speaker 1: I think of manual job in personal service, childcare, elderly care, construction,

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Speaker 1: agricultural services. These are typically job that are filled then

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Speaker 1: with immigrants, and immigrants by taking this job allow companies

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Speaker 1: and economies that leave off this type of activity to

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Speaker 1: expand and to grow and to create related job connected

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Speaker 1: job that actually Americans will do. So a construction company

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Speaker 1: will certainly need construction worker, but we'll also need engineers,

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Speaker 1: sales representative, accountants, And with the company staying in business

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Speaker 1: because it can hire immigrants, it will grow and higher

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Speaker 1: in other type of job where most Americans actually will work.

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Speaker 1: So that's it's the complimentarity measure rather than the competition

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Speaker 1: only of immigrants that opens up this possibility that actually

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Speaker 1: more immigrants not only grow the economy but can actually

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Speaker 1: create job opportunities for American workers. And that's one of

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Speaker 1: the channels through which this positive effect works. Of course,

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Speaker 1: at the high end of the spectrum, the scientists an

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Speaker 1: engineer are even more if anything, needed for company to

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Speaker 1: grow and to increase in size. And so, as you say,

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Speaker 1: certainly Silicon Valley is an example in where a very

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Speaker 1: large number of immigrants has allowed the sector to grow

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Speaker 1: to hav an world leadership and to give job to

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Speaker 1: a lot of others American too. So the fallacy that

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Speaker 1: there is one job and if it's taken by immigrant,

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Speaker 1: is not taken by native is a fallacy because the

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Speaker 1: number of jobs not fixed in an economy, and economy

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Speaker 1: that can grow thanks also to the contribution of immigrants

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Speaker 1: can create job And so why more immigrants is more

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Speaker 1: than one more job? Is one more job for him

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Speaker 1: or her and then more jobs for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the economy. And I think another argument that I've read

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Speaker 1: in various researches that um, when immigrants do take lower wages,

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Speaker 1: either because you know, they really want this job or

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Speaker 1: that matches with their skill set, whatever it is, that

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Speaker 1: can help keep costs low for businesses, which means higher

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Speaker 1: profits for them. It could also mean lower costs for

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Speaker 1: American consumers. So that's something to think about as well.

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Speaker 1: But I do want to turn to sort of the

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Speaker 1: argument for tighter immigration controls or I don't. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if we want to call it against immigrants. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that fits necessarily. But you touched on it

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Speaker 1: just now. Immigrants take jobs at Americans need. So this

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Speaker 1: idea that instead of it being complimentary, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: there is just one job and the immigrant takes it,

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Speaker 1: and then you know that leaves a native born worker

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Speaker 1: without a job that might fit his or her skill set.

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Speaker 1: And if we look at that argument, Giovanni, who would

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Speaker 1: be the types of workers, the types of American workers

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Speaker 1: who would be most impacted by that. Given that at

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Speaker 1: the low end of the skill spectrum, immigrants are tendentially

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Speaker 1: taking these manual intensive jobs in agriculture, construction, and services,

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Speaker 1: American worker who do the more directly jobs which are

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Speaker 1: more directly in competition with them, will be more at risk. Now,

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Speaker 1: the data show that a lot of Americans have actually

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Speaker 1: moved out of this job at a relatively quick uh speed,

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Speaker 1: And in places where immigrants are, Americans move out and

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Speaker 1: do jobs which are more um more interactive, So they

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Speaker 1: go from being construction worker to supervisor. They go from

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Speaker 1: being agricultural worker to farm manager at a faster speed

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Speaker 1: when immigrants arrived, because they have to find other niches

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Speaker 1: where they can compliment and take advantage of the richer

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Speaker 1: structure of skill in the economy. But certainly low educate

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Speaker 1: the older worker who will have a hard time transitioning

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Speaker 1: are the one who could be more at risk. Inaggregate,

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Speaker 1: I would say that most of the data and most

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Speaker 1: of the research in the United States, both looking at

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Speaker 1: the cities, at states that counties, does not seem to

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Speaker 1: find a net negative effect on the jobs even of

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Speaker 1: relatively low skilled Americans, but certainly some specific categories and

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Speaker 1: some specific group of workers who are displaced at least

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Speaker 1: in the short run by this, immigrants could be for

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Speaker 1: a while at least suffering out of this, right, And

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Speaker 1: do you have funny what about on the wages side,

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Speaker 1: because supply and demand just tells us that if you

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Speaker 1: increase the number of workers, that would lead to a

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Speaker 1: suppression and wages. What are your thoughts on that? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the supply and demand will tell you what you just said,

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Speaker 1: that if you are comparing oranges with oranges the same

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Speaker 1: type of workers. So if you have one type of worker,

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Speaker 1: and you increase the supply, then the wage of those

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Speaker 1: will go down, but if nothing else changes obviously, but

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Speaker 1: there are a couple of things which actually happen when

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Speaker 1: immigrants come first. As I said, they have somewhat different skills,

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Speaker 1: so they take type of niches which are not the

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Speaker 1: same as the one where Americans are. Second, when American

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Speaker 1: immigrant workers come in, firms respond to this so invest more,

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Speaker 1: look for more highers, and this increases capital and so

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Speaker 1: it may in turn increase demand. So certainly there is

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Speaker 1: a little bit of this competition effect, because as we said,

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Speaker 1: there are some worker in direct competition, but there is

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Speaker 1: also some effect in complimentarity. So you have to look

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Speaker 1: again in aggregate. But that very simple model in which

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Speaker 1: when you increase supply the wages go down is only

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Speaker 1: true if I have identical workers and if everything else

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Speaker 1: is completely constant. Immigrant and me emphasize this other point,

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Speaker 1: do not come in all at a certain point. They

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Speaker 1: have been coming in relatively slowly, so the economy that

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Speaker 1: has received them has had time to invest to adjust,

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Speaker 1: and worker American worker had time to recalibrate their specialization,

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Speaker 1: their education. Also, as a consequence of immigration, so I

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Speaker 1: would say that the long run effects are the more important,

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Speaker 1: the one in which you not only look at the

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Speaker 1: increasing supply of immigrant worker, but also you see how

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Speaker 1: American firm respond to that and how American workers specialization

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Speaker 1: changes as a consequence of that. In that type of framework,

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Speaker 1: which happens over five ten years, American worker tend to

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Speaker 1: be more differentiated from immigrants and so tend to suffer

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Speaker 1: less and benefit more in their wages, in their productivity

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Speaker 1: from the influence of immigrants on wages. I wanted to

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Speaker 1: say one more thing, which has to do with the

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Speaker 1: highly skilled. The highly skilled scientists an engineer are a

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Speaker 1: clear input to American technological growth, maybe one of the

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Speaker 1: most important inputs. And American technological growth in the last

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Speaker 1: fourty years has been the main reason why productivity in

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Speaker 1: the US have grown and with it wages. So in

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Speaker 1: the long run, having more of the group can actually

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Speaker 1: result in higher wages because of higher productivity of everybody.

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Speaker 1: Think of how information technology is transformed the way we

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Speaker 1: do a lot of things in healthcare, in the services,

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Speaker 1: in education, and how the productivity of worker has gone

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Speaker 1: up because of that. If you think that part of

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Speaker 1: that innovation and that changes is brought by that segment

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Speaker 1: of immigrants, then you have a very big, long run

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Speaker 1: effect on wages that could be actually very positive. So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna take a quick break to digest all of this,

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Speaker 1: and when we come back, we're going to talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit more about the history of immigration and also

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Speaker 1: why this topic has become so big now in both

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Speaker 1: the US and the UK, and how this tension could

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Speaker 1: be resolved after we come back. Bloomberg Benchmark is brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Stage Summit, the world's largest gathering of

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Speaker 1: small and medium businesses featuring Sir Richard Branson July Chicago,

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00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,360
Speaker 1: registered with promo code business at stage summit dot com.

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Speaker 1: For just well, so you have anny um. I mean,

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Speaker 1: one more thing that we didn't talk about just now

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Speaker 1: was the whole idea of use of public services and

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Speaker 1: the tax base. And that's sort of just a whole

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Speaker 1: other can of worms that we could talk about at length.

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Speaker 1: But is there anything that the research shows there, because there,

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Speaker 1: you know, there is this notion out there that immigrants

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Speaker 1: come in and they use all these government services and

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Speaker 1: they don't pay their fair share into the system. Well,

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Speaker 1: so again, let me separate the effect of high and

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Speaker 1: less educated UH and argue that each one of them

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Speaker 1: probably does not impact too much, does not have a

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Speaker 1: big fiscal impact on the US. So they highly educated,

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Speaker 1: typically they will have an average wage which is higher

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Speaker 1: than the average Americans, so they will contribute more in

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Speaker 1: the system that they take moreover, many of them come

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Speaker 1: when they are young, and so they have a long

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Speaker 1: contributing life ahead of them before start taking anything out

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Speaker 1: of this UH in social security. So, in fact, having

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Speaker 1: more highly skilled immigrant is a general consensus is a

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Speaker 1: way of improving significantly the fiscal balance of the US

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Speaker 1: less educated. Well, there is this interesting fact a low

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Speaker 1: educated immigrants in the US are working in a very

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Speaker 1: large part um. They are as you were saying before,

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Speaker 1: in large part Mexican or Latino who are employed. UM.

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Speaker 1: And they given that a very big share of them

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Speaker 1: is actually undocumented, that they don't have access currently to

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Speaker 1: any of the welfare and the welfare benefits that the

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Speaker 1: US guaranteed. They don't have access to food stamps, to

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Speaker 1: welfare transfer, to unemployment transfer. But on the other hand,

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Speaker 1: they pay a large chunk of taxes. They pay certainly

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Speaker 1: consumption taxes, certainly the real estate through the rent that

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Speaker 1: they pay. Some of them even pay income taxes through

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Speaker 1: the fake Social Security in number that they have they

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Speaker 1: pay social Security tax. So the net accounting even therefore

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Speaker 1: less educated, is that currently they probably contribute more than

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Speaker 1: they take out in the system. And of course this

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Speaker 1: will change if there is a regularization which allow them

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Speaker 1: to access some of the benefit of the US. But

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Speaker 1: you have to keep in mind the debt. The welfare

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Speaker 1: state in the US is not too generous and it's

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Speaker 1: only really very restricted to citizen. Even temporary worker, temporary

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Speaker 1: immigrant on temporary visa do not have access to these benefits.

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Speaker 1: So chances are that they will stay as an active

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Speaker 1: contributor to the US public sector even if they are legalized,

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Speaker 1: as long as or before getting their citizenship. So overall,

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Speaker 1: I don't think there are bad news on that side either.

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Speaker 1: Overall it looks like they could be a net fiscal

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Speaker 1: positive for the US, and I mean welfare. Are welfare

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Speaker 1: systems generosity in comparison to to Europe, for example, Yes, yes,

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Speaker 1: in comparison to Europe, in particularly northern Europe is certainly

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Speaker 1: my too much more limited than the U S. Generals,

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Speaker 1: Do you have funny before we went to break you

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Speaker 1: talked about how lower educated older workers are probably going

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Speaker 1: to be the ones who lose out the most with

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Speaker 1: an influx of immigration. Although it's it is also difficult

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Speaker 1: to kind of compare you know, you said it wasn't

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Speaker 1: an orange is oranges comparison um. And of course in

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Speaker 1: the UK it seems like a lot of people who

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Speaker 1: voted to leave the European Union were lower educated, lower income,

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Speaker 1: older voters. So why do you think immigration has become

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Speaker 1: such a hot topic these days, both in the US

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Speaker 1: and the UK. And I wonder how you see the

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Speaker 1: tension being resolved somehow. So I have a couple of

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Speaker 1: potential explanation or reason why immigration is at such a

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Speaker 1: hot bottom. So one is that it is true that

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Speaker 1: a relatively older middle class worker in western countries have

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Speaker 1: not done very well in general in terms of wages

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Speaker 1: and income. In the last ten twenty years. The wages

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Speaker 1: of the median, particularly older worker in the US and

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Speaker 1: in the UK and Europe has not grown very much.

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Speaker 1: Now economists tend to agree that immigration probably has nothing

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Speaker 1: to do with this. In large parties technology technology is

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Speaker 1: mechanized and informatized. A lot of the jobs that used

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Speaker 1: to be relatively well paid in parties globalization. There of

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Speaker 1: course there is trade and some of these jobs have

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Speaker 1: been assured. But even if immigration is not the cause

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Speaker 1: of this, or at least economists can pinpoint that it

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Speaker 1: is not the cause of this, in the imagery that

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Speaker 1: is proposed, it's very easy to say, oh, look, you

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Speaker 1: have not been doing very well, and there is a

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Speaker 1: simple explanation. Are the immigrants that come in? Because there

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Speaker 1: is a simple solution. Close the border and the problem

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Speaker 1: goes away. So simple and very characterization of the problem,

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Speaker 1: I would say incorrect. And then simple solution maybe is

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Speaker 1: appealing from a political point of view. I was doing

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Speaker 1: a piece of research and um, it's said that wages

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Speaker 1: have been and stagnant in in the UK for a while.

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Speaker 1: Housing is hard to find and and expensive, and at

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Speaker 1: the same time of government austerity. Um, that's making public

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Speaker 1: services causing kind of a crunch there. And so it's

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Speaker 1: very easy to look at that scenario and say, wow,

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Speaker 1: if we had less people, maybe this would be easier

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Speaker 1: to deal with. Yes, correctly, So it's easy to make

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Speaker 1: the connection. And I think even this this little model

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Speaker 1: that you were mentioning before, increase the supply and wages

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Speaker 1: go down. I think people think that they understand it,

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Speaker 1: and I think that the economy is just as simple

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Speaker 1: as that, and so that's also part of the easy

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Speaker 1: communication of that part. So that's one. The other reason

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Speaker 1: is that I think immigration involves many other sentiments besides economics.

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Speaker 1: And obviously there are a sequence of cultural security type

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Speaker 1: of issues, and so it's easy to just bundle up

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Speaker 1: everything and propose one solution to all of the poes

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Speaker 1: of the modern society in pushing away immigrants. I really think, though,

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Speaker 1: that is neither unique to this country nor unique to

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Speaker 1: our time. The US has gone through several periods of

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Speaker 1: a very strong anti immigration sentiment. In the nineteen tents

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Speaker 1: nineteen twenties, when immigrants were at a level which was

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Speaker 1: as high as today, incredibly staugh draconian law against immigration

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Speaker 1: were passed because the Italian, the Irish, the Polish were

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Speaker 1: seen as these new immigrants stealing jobs and also bringing

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Speaker 1: culture and risks that were not known before. So we

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Speaker 1: need to have also patients because history has been going

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Speaker 1: through this before, and I think informing people about the

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Speaker 1: facts and emphasizing the importance of I think correct economic

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Speaker 1: understanding in order to do good policy is very important

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Speaker 1: today as it was in the past. So tor Funny,

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Speaker 1: is it safe to say that you think immigration is

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Speaker 1: generally good for an economy. Yes, I would say that

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Speaker 1: in general it is. Let me add this general classification

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Speaker 1: of immigration that are also different from the perception. Immigration

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Speaker 1: in general, certainly to the U S and the u

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Speaker 1: k S has been more high skilled and low skilled.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the spectrum, there is a little

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Speaker 1: higher percentage of college educated in immigrants than in the population.

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Speaker 1: So immigration has been good also because it has increased

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Speaker 1: the level of education of the receiving country. And second,

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Speaker 1: immigration happens relatively slowly, so that country have been able

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Speaker 1: to adjust. Immigration is a force that changes the economy,

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Speaker 1: and if countries take this opportunity in the long run,

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Speaker 1: can really improve productivity, can improve the skills available. It's

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Speaker 1: a little bit like technologies are. To see the world

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Speaker 1: changing from today to tomorrow, but over a decade the

435
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 1: world changes a lot because of that, and I think immigration,

436
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: certainly to the UK and to the US, has been

437
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 1: this force bringing skills, changes innovation, but also more worker

438
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: and absorbed in the right way, it can be death

439
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 1: a force for growth and the long run effect, I

440
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: would say are certainly more positive than negative. As a

441
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: Japanese citizen living and working in San Francisco right now,

442
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: I like to think that I bring quite a lot

443
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: of innovation to the American I would agree that is hockey.

444
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: Not only you bring a lot of innovation, but your

445
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: own country is losing and missing a lot of innovation

446
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: by not admitting more immigrants. That Japan has been one

447
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: of the toughest countries in terms of admitting immigrants, just

448
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 1: to make a digression, and it's economy in the last

449
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: twenty years being quite slow and quite stagnating, So that

450
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: could be almost a counter example of the what immigration

451
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 1: and new ideas and creativity brings. And you make a

452
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: fantastic point that you know, immigration is an issue that

453
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: countries have been dealing with for decades and decades own centuries. Now,

454
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: this isn't the first time the US has gone through.

455
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: I don't want to call it a crisis, but there

456
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: definitely fears and concerns out there about immigration and how

457
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 1: many people we let in. So it seems like history

458
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: is just sort of repeating itself here. Yes, absolutely, the

459
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: interesting thing at the interesting difference I would say with

460
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: the previous historical period of large immigration, which was the

461
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: early was that in that period I would say that

462
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: immigration to the YES was almost genuinely free. Everybody who

463
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: showed up in Ellis Island or in San Francisco was

464
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: admitted unless they had some sort of diseases. And then

465
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 1: progressively there were tougher and tougher immigration restriction. Now immigration

466
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 1: is very regulated already. I guess people sometimes hearing this

467
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: thing that immigration is relatively free to the US, immigration

468
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 1: is the most regulated and restricted flow in on Earth.

469
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: So goods and investment and ideas flow much much more freely.

470
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: People in terms of mobility of labor is much more,

471
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: much much more constraint. On average in the US, UM

472
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: maybe seven hundred thousand people come in every year as immigrants.

473
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: This is zero point five percent of the labor force

474
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 1: of the United States. These are small and slow numbers,

475
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: but still I agree with you. The worries of the

476
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: border the immigrants, which are different in maybe ethnicity, in culture,

477
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: brings this incredible level of anxiety, both in Europe and

478
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: in the US, and good policymakers and good politicians have

479
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: to address it, explain it, and turn it for the best.

480
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 1: I think yeah, And I think it's I think it's

481
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: mostly undocumented immigrants that that wrinkle people the most though,

482
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: And that's sort of understandable if if people aren't going

483
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: through the process, maybe America is a country full of

484
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: rule followers. I don't know, I don't believe. So there's

485
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 1: this idea about people getting around the rules though, that

486
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: that really sorts of gets under people's scan. I agree.

487
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 1: I agree. It's interesting though about undocumented immigrants, And let

488
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: me say why. I think there is a little bit

489
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: just in the perception there too. In the last so

490
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: as you have said, the net inflow of undocumented is zero.

491
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: In fact has been negative in the last ten years.

492
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: So the inflow of undocumented it was really an issue

493
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: of the nineties and the early two thousand's. Now we

494
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: have the undocumented in and now the issue is how

495
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: to find a path for these people. But back then,

496
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: the American economy was growing, especially in the nineties, and

497
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: one was creating a lot of these jobs which were manual,

498
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: low skilled, and American companies were very willing to hire

499
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: people who were foreign born because there were very few

500
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: Americans available. However, there was no way whatsoever to accept

501
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,719
Speaker 1: legally person to do the job unless a personal relative.

502
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: In the United States, everybody else who was a Mexican

503
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: worker of an unskilled type, not a professional, could not

504
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: find the visa to come. And this was a big

505
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 1: difference relatively to the high skill for which the H

506
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: one B visa program since nineties as allowed people like

507
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 1: a key like me to come into the country if

508
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,479
Speaker 1: we had a job offered. So yes, it's true that

509
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: people are against the bypassing the line and not following

510
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: the rule, but literally there was this incredible creation of

511
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,719
Speaker 1: jobs and firm willing to hire, and there was no

512
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: legal way to come in and the US for a

513
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: while as closed than eye. And now all in a

514
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: sudden that this is not a need anymore because that

515
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: influence level people think, oh wow, now these people have

516
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 1: broken the rules. Well, these people have, just as the

517
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: company who hired them has broken the rules. And so

518
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: we need to find a way out of this because

519
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: I think as of now, the fact is that eleven

520
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 1: million people have been in the US, many of them

521
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: for five and fifteen years, and the disruption of sending

522
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: them back back on the American economy will be so

523
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: massive that I would say, no reasonable person can see

524
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: such a huge even just economic cost, to forget about

525
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: the human and moral cost, just such huge economic acosta.

526
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,239
Speaker 1: So it's through the American followed the rule. But there

527
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: is a little bit of hypocrisy in this attitude. Now, well,

528
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: gm Anny, this is This has been a fascinating conversation

529
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: and I think a great one for Aki and I

530
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,719
Speaker 1: to in her time on Benchmark with So thank you

531
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Thank you, thank you for

532
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: having me. It's been a real pleasure, and thanks to

533
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: all of you for joining Tori and I one last

534
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: time on Bloomberg Benchmark. The show is going to be

535
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: back again next week, this time with Dan at the Helm,

536
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: So make sure you tune in and maybe even right

537
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: to Dan to tell him how much you miss us.

538
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: And as always, you can find us on the Bloomberg

539
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: Terminal and Bloomberg dot com, as well as on iTunes, pocketcast,

540
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 1: and Stitcher. While you're there, take a minute to rate

541
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: and review the show. Some more listeners can find us

542
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: and let us know what you thought of the show.

543
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: You can talk to us and follow us on Twitter

544
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: at Aki Ita seven and that Tory still well. Tune

545
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: in next week Bloomberg benchmark is brought to you by

546
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,600
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547
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,880
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