1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch US Live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch US Live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: Keeping cracking the headlines out of the Middle East, as 7 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: we already said, there have been reports of ten missiles 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: being fired at US bases in Cutters, specifically in now, 9 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: Iranian State Television is saying that a quote powerful devastating 10 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 2: strike was launched at Alud'd Air Force Base. Airbase that, 11 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: of course, is the biggest US military installation in the 12 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 2: Middle East, is the headquarters of US Central Command, and 13 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 2: Iranian State TV has cited an IRGC statement on the 14 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: missile strike heading toward Cutter. We knew Joe that retaliation 15 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: was likely coming. Aron Armed Forces chief of Staff earlier 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: today said it would be proportionate and decisive. I guess 17 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: we're getting a sense of what the regimes take on. 18 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 2: Proportionate and decisive actually is that's right. 19 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 3: It's been a flurry of headlines over the past hour 20 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: or so now Iran, according to Axios launching at least 21 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 3: one missile toward Iraq, where there's also a large military base, 22 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 3: but not nearly the number of US troops who are there, 23 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 3: if reports are correct. They're already in the Situation Room 24 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 3: at the White House, and there was a scheduled meeting 25 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 3: for the President and his national security team at this hour. 26 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall is joining us with the very latest 27 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 3: from the North Lawn at the White House. 28 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 4: Tyler, Yeah, hey, Joe. Well, as you mentioned, we are 29 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 4: expecting that President Trump has already convened his National Security 30 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 4: Council inside the Oval Office. We should say that this 31 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 4: was always on the public schedule, but now we could 32 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 4: see perhaps some sort of confirmation out of the White 33 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 4: House as we wait to see if any officials make 34 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 4: some sort of statement when it comes to the reports 35 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 4: of these missiles being launched towards that US air base 36 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 4: in Katar. Now we should say, as Kaye had mentioned 37 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 4: at the top, retaliation was idly expected, considering that we 38 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 4: had heard from the Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed 39 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 4: Forces earlier today saying that a response would ultimately be proportionate, 40 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 4: and we had been tracking moves when it came to Qatar. 41 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 4: We know that they had suspended flights over their airspace 42 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 4: earlier today. The US embassy there had also warned that 43 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 4: Americans should start to shelter in place. Of course, as mentioned, 44 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 4: this is one of the largest US military bases in 45 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 4: the Middle East. It's home to about nine thousand US 46 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 4: service members. Now, this White House has maintained that it 47 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 4: had been proactive about protecting US assets in the region. 48 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 4: Of course, your recall last week we saw the move 49 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 4: personnel out of Iraq. But now the question really does 50 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 4: become what this provoked further US retaliation. President Trump had 51 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 4: threatened that there could be further attacks if Iran did 52 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 4: not come to the negotiating table when it comes to 53 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 4: their nuclear program. But Joe and Kelly, we have heard 54 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 4: reiterated by Iranian officials that they are not going to 55 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 4: be able to negotiate if the strikes do continue against them. 56 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 4: Of course, that then begs the question out a potential ceasefire, 57 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 4: which up to this point we really haven't seen President 58 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 4: Trump b Q in favor. Of of course, we have 59 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 4: heard him say before that he is looking for what 60 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,959 Speaker 4: he calls unconditional surrender. 61 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 2: Well, as we consider what response the President may choose 62 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 2: for this action. We should note that Cutter is now 63 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 2: saying that it intercepted that missile brage on Alloded Airbase. 64 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 2: The Cutter says there was no incident and no casualties 65 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 2: from the missile attack, and that could be important in 66 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 2: the considerations of the Trump administration as it decides whether 67 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 2: or not to retaliate if there were indeed no casualties 68 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: from this attack. Again, this is coming from Cutter. Will 69 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 2: have to await word from the White House as well, Tyler. 70 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 2: But if indeed we were to see an additional military 71 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 2: action that this administration wants to take, is there a 72 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: sense that they might go to Congress for approval for 73 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: that in a way they did not with this strike 74 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 2: over this past weekend. 75 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 4: Well, up to this point, Kaylee, this White House has 76 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 4: really maintained that it has complied with the War Powers 77 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 4: Act of nineteen seventy three. We're going to hear this 78 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 4: top about a lot in Congress, as there does appear 79 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 4: to be some sort of a movement even among Republicans 80 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 4: who were upset about President Trump moving forward with this 81 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 4: authorization of military force without congressional approval. But we heard 82 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 4: from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who really has maintained that 83 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 4: they have complied with that law. And we should say 84 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 4: that presidents of both parties in the past have authorized 85 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 4: military strikes without congressional approval, But that really does become 86 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 4: one of the factors here as the White House does 87 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 4: weigh its decision moving forward. Yet, President Trump has been 88 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 4: pretty staunch in his rhetoric when it comes to making 89 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 4: sure that he is protecting US interests abroad if there 90 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 4: were to be some sort of retaliation. 91 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 5: We're going to be. 92 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 4: Watching really closely as how this does play out, because 93 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 4: our analysts at Bloomberg had been expecting perhaps a more 94 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 4: targeted strike. So we'll see you're reading the headlines there 95 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 4: from Cutter about what potentially the damage could ultimately be. 96 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 4: But there were a few different options that are on 97 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,919 Speaker 4: it did have on the table. So we'll be watching 98 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 4: to see if this expands any further and what this 99 00:04:58,360 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 4: White House's response would be. 100 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Tyler Kendall live at the White House 101 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 2: for us as we contend with this breaking news. Thank 102 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 2: you so much, and again to reiterate, aus Cutter says 103 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 2: it has successfully intercepted Iran's missile attack. It is also 104 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 2: cuttery response we have to consider here, as Cutter is 105 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 2: saying it reserves the right to respond to this quote 106 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 2: blatant attack from Iran. And of course that's just one 107 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 2: player in the region that is factored in here as well, 108 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 2: the other being, of course, Israel, as it continues its 109 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 2: own strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and other assets, and 110 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 2: Iran has fired retaliatory missiles at Israel in return. We 111 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 2: have seen that for days. We saw it again once 112 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 2: again today and an important voice is joining us now 113 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 114 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 2: I'm pleased to say Yoev Glant, the former Defense Minister 115 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 2: of Israel, is with us live. 116 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 5: Sir. 117 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 2: We appreciate your time as we consider this response from 118 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 2: Iran targeting US military assets in the region. Is this 119 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 2: in keeping with what you expected? Do you think it 120 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 2: ends here or could we still see yet more from the. 121 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 6: Gen Well, good afternoon, joined Kayley, Thank you for having me. 122 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 6: And I think that the bold decision that was taken 123 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 6: by the President and the excellent performances of the American 124 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 6: Air Force and nobody else, no air force in the 125 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 6: world can do anything similar to that This is an 126 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 6: essential step in order to make sure that Iran will 127 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 6: not possess nuclear weapon. Imagine that one of these ballistic 128 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 6: missiles that was should to cut out to Israel could 129 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 6: have carried a weapon of mass destruction. This can be 130 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 6: a disaster not only for the region but for the world. Therefore, 131 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 6: we need to avoid it and in this meaning, in 132 00:06:55,960 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 6: this in this region, in the Middle East, peace comes 133 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 6: through strength. Unfortunately, you need to explain the aggressor that 134 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 6: the limits to what they can do, and the Iranians 135 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 6: well very very close to possess a nuclear weapon. 136 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 3: We'd like to know more about what could happen next, 137 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 3: mister Gollan, based on the extent that you're still in 138 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 3: touch with your contacts, how broad and at what scale 139 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 3: could be this response from Iran. We have reports of 140 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 3: ten missiles in the air so far, it appears those 141 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 3: fired toward Cutter have been intercepted. Will Iran need to 142 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 3: resort to terrorism if it cannot strike militarily against the US. 143 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 6: I think that the major tool that Iran has and 144 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 6: will try to use is ballistic missiles, also other type 145 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 6: of missiles and drones, and they are shooting them against 146 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 6: Israel in the recent two years and especially during the 147 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 6: last week, and I believe they made a grave mistake 148 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 6: by retaliating against the American base and American interests, because 149 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 6: I'm sure that the President will retaliate or order to 150 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 6: retaliate exactly as a promise in the in the past. 151 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 6: And the proportions between the Iranian capabilities and the Americans 152 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 6: are bringing you on to a very low point to 153 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 6: the corner. And I think that the Central Commands Sanitcom 154 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 6: of the US Army will retaliate against them in order 155 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 6: to explain what is the meaning of such a such 156 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 6: a behavior. But we are lucky that all these missiles 157 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 6: were into accept in the air. And let me say 158 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 6: that for me, the lives of Americans and the life 159 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 6: of American soldiers are as dear as the life of 160 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 6: Israeli soldiers. I started to train with American soldiers when 161 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 6: I was commanding the Navy Series the Israeli Navy Seals 162 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 6: forty years ago, and I appreciate them, and they are 163 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 6: very dear for me, and I value very much their 164 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 6: performances and their abilities, and we will do anything that 165 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 6: we can in order to support American efforts, intel and 166 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 6: anything else needed. 167 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,319 Speaker 2: Well, general, as we consider the support that Israel might 168 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: need and has gotten from the US, well Cutter has 169 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 2: successfully intercepted this attack from Iran. Obviously, not all of 170 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 2: the missiles and etc. That Iran has sent Israel's way 171 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: over the course of the last week or so been intercepted. 172 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 2: How should we consider Israel's own air defense capability if 173 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 2: a run were to introduce more advanced missiles into this fighting, 174 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 2: is that's something Israel is prepared for in ten with 175 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 2: stand for potentially a prolonged period of time. 176 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 6: Oh yeah, you know, this war started recently, but last autumn. 177 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 6: On September we eliminate Hisbala and on October we made 178 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:33,959 Speaker 6: two major steps when we retaliate against the Iranian aggression 179 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 6: when they were shooting at US two hundred ballistic missiles 180 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 6: on October. First, we retaliate and actually we create and 181 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 6: pave the way for what we are seeing now once 182 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 6: we almost demolish all the ability to manufacture ballistic missiles, 183 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 6: so they stay with the arsenal they have around the 184 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 6: two thousand, maybe twenty five hundred ballistic missile when they 185 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 6: start with. And second, we were able to pave the 186 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 6: way to Tehran and to create a corridor and later 187 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 6: on al superiority. That also was part of the assist 188 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 6: that we gave to the Americans when they hit the 189 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 6: four door. So looking on the situation, the Iranian will 190 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 6: suffer heavy damage and heavy casualties and everything that is 191 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 6: either a revolutionary guard or military basis or regime basis, 192 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 6: this all is exposed to Israeli and American potential retaliation. 193 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 6: So in one hand, we are well equipped to protect ourselves. 194 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 6: We are able to engage and detect the missile launchers 195 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 6: on the ground, and we are doing it successfully with 196 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 6: the great them from four hundred to I believe less 197 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:11,559 Speaker 6: than two hundred, and with America retaliating from bases and carriers. 198 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 6: I think that the Iranians are in a very bad position, 199 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 6: and that means that for them, they should stop and 200 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 6: accept the conditions that President Trump put on the table. 201 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 6: Otherwise we will do it by force. But you cannot 202 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 6: allow a country that is based on irresponsible regime to 203 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,239 Speaker 6: possess nuclear weapon in the center of the Gulf. 204 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 3: You mentioned for Doe, it is possible the IEA will 205 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 3: never get inside for Dough and there are questions in 206 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 3: Washington and around the world about the extent to which 207 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 3: the US eliminated the entire facility, or whether there could 208 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 3: be something left over. Well, it's really special forces go 209 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 3: there first hand in person to find out. 210 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 6: Well, for though is a few hundred feet under the surface. 211 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 3: Can you access that facility in person. 212 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 6: We know this, We know these places, and we know 213 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 6: what was going over there. We believe that the American 214 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 6: mob that was dropped from the Beatos was penetrating for 215 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 6: tho and America has the ability to reattake those those 216 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 6: places if needed. Anyhow, I think that the whole system 217 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 6: under the ground was collapsed. Together with what was happening 218 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 6: in Natans and with other facilities that are dealing with 219 00:13:54,160 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 6: the Iranian nuclear program in in is Fun and in Kashan, 220 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 6: Nathans and other places, I think that we set them 221 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 6: back by many years. And if you look on the 222 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 6: general picture, including what happened to the protecting shells that 223 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 6: they created in the past, like his balin Hamas and 224 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 6: the Seans, everything collapsed, including the Iranian air defense. So 225 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 6: they are very exposed and the regime is fighting for 226 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 6: their life. And this is the reason I believe that 227 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 6: they need to retaliate. Otherwise the ninety million Iranians will 228 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 6: understand that the regime is very weak and this is 229 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 6: an option to change the regime by the people in Iran. Therefore, 230 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 6: they need to show strength to their own to their 231 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 6: own people. But it's a grave mistake because they are 232 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 6: going to lose more and more asset because of those reactions. 233 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 6: Every day we are setting them back by a few months. 234 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: Well, as you allude to the idea of regime change here, 235 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 2: do you believe that is Israel's ultimate objective in this 236 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 2: war or this conflict? Do you believe there's alignment between 237 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: Israel and the US in that regard. 238 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 6: I don't think that this is a declared aim, a 239 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 6: declared goal of a war. The goal of the war 240 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 6: is to make sure that Iran will never possess nuclear 241 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 6: weapon and to destroy the ability to produce a feasile 242 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 6: material and weapon system that activated by eliminate the scientists 243 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 6: and the centers that deal with that. But having said that, 244 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 6: take l campaign cannot change the regime. But on the 245 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 6: other hand, it weakened the regime and in this in 246 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 6: this aspect, it gives the people of Iran the opportunity 247 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 6: to change the gym. If this will be their choice. 248 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 6: We cannot and I don't think that we are aiming 249 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 6: to change the regime from the air campaign, But the 250 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 6: international media, together with the people in Iran, and the 251 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 6: air campaign that Israel and the United States are holding 252 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 6: against Iran, can create conditions for the people in Iran. 253 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 3: If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube 254 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 3: or Bloomberg Originals, we're showing you the first video that 255 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 3: we have of missiles being shot toward Cutter where they 256 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 3: were intercepted. This is home to the massive US air 257 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 3: base that we've been describing and the Iranian retaliation. If 258 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 3: you're just joining us that began shortly after twelve noon 259 00:16:56,040 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 3: Eastern time, you have gallant in our final moment of consation. 260 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 3: Do you expect that we'll see Israeli forces on the 261 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 3: ground in Iran. 262 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 6: I don't think so. I don't think it is needed, 263 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 6: and I'm not sure that the effect of it is 264 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 6: something that is needed. Iran is a big place, huge 265 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 6: comparing to Israel. It's sixty or sixty five times larger 266 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 6: than Israel. The population is nine times bigger. The Iranian 267 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 6: people are not our enemy, and we are fighting to 268 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 6: eliminate their ability to possess nuclear weapon, because you know 269 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 6: on every missile it is written death to is Well 270 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 6: and also death to America. And if they possess nuclear weapon, 271 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 6: they will use it. Therefore, as a Holocaust survival son 272 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 6: and some of the survivors, for me, never Again is 273 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 6: not just a commitment. For me, Never Again is a 274 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 6: We are walking according to it, and we need to 275 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 6: make sure that those who threat to eliminate is one 276 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 6: and by the same world the Jewish people who most 277 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 6: of it, majority of its tame is what the meaning 278 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 6: is that they'll see us about it. So we need 279 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,880 Speaker 6: to take preemptive actions and that's what we are doing. 280 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: He is the former Defense Minister of Israel. You have 281 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 3: gallant General. Thank you for the time and insights. 282 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: Today you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 283 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern 284 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 1: on Apple, Cocklay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. 285 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 286 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 287 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 3: Michael Allen with us from Peaking Global Strategies, where he's 288 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 3: managing director and a veteran of the Bush White House, 289 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 3: a national security expert who has seen this coming. Michael, 290 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 3: it's good to have you for us here in student 291 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg. To what extent is Israel finishing the job 292 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 3: right now as opposed to widening it? 293 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 4: So? 294 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 7: I think Israel is somewhere down their target list in 295 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 7: terms of military and nuclear targets, and to me, they're 296 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 7: beginning to hit more economic and regime stronghold targets. So 297 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 7: I have a real question as the week goes on, 298 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 7: because they're debating how long do we want to keep 299 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 7: this going, whether they shift completely toward a regime regime 300 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 7: change type policy. And to me, that's sort of the 301 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 7: biggest question on going in the real war, which is 302 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 7: between Israel and Iran. 303 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider that being the quote unquote 304 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 2: real war, how long would you expect it to continue 305 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 2: if Iran has already chosen its course of action against 306 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 2: the US, or do you think it might not end 307 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 2: against the US at this point either? 308 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 7: I think it's basically over against the United States. They 309 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 7: hit they did their symbolic attack on al Ude'd Air 310 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 7: Force Base, as your correspondent noted, completely telegraphed, probably coordinated 311 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 7: between intermediaries. What I don't think though, is that it's 312 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 7: over with Israel. I think Israel, by the way, not 313 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 7: only is going to continue to prosecute its target list 314 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 7: at least for this week and maybe beyond, but to me, 315 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 7: as long as they have air superiority in Iran, I 316 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 7: think Benjamin Netanya, who is going to carry on a 317 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,159 Speaker 7: campaign of where they have an opportunity that's going to 318 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 7: be quite opportunistic, they're going to go for it. That's 319 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 7: exactly what they do with Tomas, and that's what they 320 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 7: do with Hezbolah. I think it's going to go on 321 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 7: for weeks and. 322 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 3: Weeks, and we should note that they were trading fire 323 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 3: as recently as today. Yes, we've spent a lot of 324 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 3: time talking about Iran's response to the US, but Israel 325 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 3: is still deep in this right now. You brought to 326 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 3: us the importance of four Doh, knowing that this would 327 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 3: be in our sites if in fact we decided to strike. 328 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 3: It has now happened, and Bloomberg is reporting that satellite 329 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 3: images that we've seen of that area following US strikes 330 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 3: show that the US Air Force intentionally avoided hitting reactors 331 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 3: at FORDAU and Isfahan during the attack on Saturday night. 332 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 3: What do you make of that decision? And does that 333 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 3: imply to you that there is in fact more to 334 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 3: be done here, That the deal is not closed to 335 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 3: end the nuclear program in Iran. 336 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 7: So avoiding the reactors is smart because they don't want 337 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 7: to cause some radioactive incident. Apparently, if you hit the 338 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 7: stored uranium, it's not a big of a radioactive activity 339 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 7: than hitting a reactor. But I do think that the 340 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 7: United States still has some interest here in seeing that 341 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 7: Israel continue to prosecute some of the nuclear targets going forward. 342 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 7: I think it's fair to say no one is quite 343 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 7: sure today where the HU is. I know the Vice 344 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 7: President mentioned on air yesterday that it might have been 345 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 7: diverted before we hit. 346 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 3: The highly enriched uratium, this sixty. 347 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,679 Speaker 7: Percent highly riched uranium stockpile. All of this, to me, however, 348 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 7: suggests something that I think the United States would be 349 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 7: wise to set expectations better. It is true that we 350 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 7: had a successful attack the other night. It is true 351 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 7: that we probably could have hit some of these sites, 352 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 7: and I wish we had hit Esfahan harder. But this 353 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 7: program has been going on for decades. There are dozens 354 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 7: and dozens of sites. The Iranians are experts at denial, deception, 355 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 7: and subterfuge. It won't be outlandish to think that we 356 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 7: might have missed something, or that the Israelis, as good 357 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 7: as our intel is, might have missed something. Also, I 358 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 7: think we just need to understand that we severely degraded them. 359 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 7: We had totally lost the bubble on Iran. In the 360 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 7: last few years, we have regained the initiative and it 361 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 7: may just take a sustained effort from Israel over time 362 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 7: to keep up. 363 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:44,680 Speaker 3: Well. 364 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 2: When we consider, and I know you said you think 365 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 2: at least between the US and Iran in terms of 366 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 2: military action, it might be over for now Iran, it 367 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 2: still has non military options available to it, like, for example, 368 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 2: just stop cooperating and leave the treaty, the Nuclear Non 369 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 2: Proliferation Treaty, make the IEA can't get eyes on anything. 370 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 2: We asked John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor, about 371 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 2: this last night on our special coverage, and he was like, well, 372 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 2: they haven't been abiding by it anyway, so it's really 373 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 2: not a concern. But I wonder if you view it 374 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 2: the same way, don't we need eyes on at least 375 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 2: what we can see in regard to Iran's program. 376 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 7: So I think all told, it was good that we 377 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 7: had IAEA inspection capability, but they didn't show us everything, 378 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 7: and so at some level it becomes confusing for the 379 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 7: international community to think, well, the AEA is in there, 380 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 7: so we must have eyes on everything. We don't. They 381 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 7: were letting us see what we wanted to see, and 382 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 7: I think while it was beneficial to have it, over 383 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 7: time the usefulness declined because in the aggregate, the whole 384 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 7: program got way out of whack. They had so much 385 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,160 Speaker 7: more HU than they should have. They were reportedly building 386 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 7: a third centrifuge site that they had only begun to 387 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 7: mention to the IAEA, and all these weaponization sites. The 388 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 7: Iranians been shutting the IAEA out of those for years, 389 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 7: So I think we set them back. I think these 390 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 7: rallies really are the ones that set them back on nuclearization. 391 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 7: I hate to lose the IAEA, but I mean, all 392 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 7: things equal, I think we're better off in the long run. 393 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 3: I've got a headline that just crossed the terminal. Kuwake 394 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 3: says it now is temporarily closing its airspace. With everything 395 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 3: that we've heard in the last hour. Does this feel 396 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,159 Speaker 3: de escalatory as some have suggested on Iran's part, or 397 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 3: are you still waiting to see if there's a fulfillment 398 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 3: of this threat to activate sleeper cells that there's a 399 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 3: completely other element here that involves terror. 400 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 7: So I think over time this is the primary tool 401 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 7: that the Iranians have. Yes, they're a state sponsor of terrorism. 402 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 7: I think they are flat on their backs. They have 403 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 7: tried to assassinate US officials over the last several years 404 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 7: here and have failed. They tried to recruit people in 405 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 7: chat rooms, and the FBI was onto them very quickly 406 00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 7: before anything materialized. I think over time the the Iranian 407 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 7: regime will try to return to that, maybe to hit 408 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 7: embassies overseas. Certainly, maybe targets of opportunity if they're soldiers 409 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 7: that are unprotected. But I have a hard time seeing 410 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 7: them succeed in a big way here in the United States. 411 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 7: That's not to rule it out completely, because I know 412 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 7: they want to get over here, but I really don't 413 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 7: see it as a huge threat because I believe that 414 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 7: we have superior intelligence as do the Israelis, to tap 415 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 7: into their computer systems and get some sense of what 416 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 7: they want to do to us long before it goes kinetic. 417 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 2: As we're tracking the markets here, Michael, it is worth 418 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,199 Speaker 2: noting we're down nearly six percent on both Brent and 419 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 2: WTI futures right now. We're actually south of seventy dollars 420 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 2: a barrel on WTI, which is where we were before 421 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 2: Israel's initial strike on Aran on June thirteenth. This is 422 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 2: the lowest level we've seen since June twelfth, as we 423 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 2: consider now. And Joe just mentioned the headline kuwaitas closed 424 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 2: its airspace. Also, Maria TV is also saying Araq has 425 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 2: done the same. In addition to Bahrain Cutter the UAE. 426 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 2: If the airspace is a safe, should operators of cargo 427 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 2: vessels of oil cargo specifically feel that the strait will 428 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 2: be safe moving forward the Straight of Hormus. 429 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 8: Yeah. 430 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 7: I don't think that the Iranians are really going to 431 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 7: go and do the Strait of Hormuz for several reasons, 432 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,400 Speaker 7: in part because Oman owns half of it, in part 433 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 7: because it would be spiding taking off their nose despite 434 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 7: their face. I do wonder though, if they're beginning to 435 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 7: shut down the air space over Kuwait and elsewhere, maybe 436 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 7: they're more attacks to come from the Iranians. Maybe they're 437 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 7: going to try to take a shot at our base 438 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 7: in Kuwait. They definitely did by the way in Iraq 439 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 7: at Ali Saide. The question is is all of this choreograph? 440 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 7: I think it is because the quickest way for the 441 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 7: Iranians to lose control of the situation is to kill 442 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 7: an American, and then I fully believed that Donald Trump 443 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 7: would go extraordinarily kinetic on them. We have three carrier 444 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 7: strike groups in the reason, a half dozen air squadrons 445 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 7: of F thirty fives. I think that is something that 446 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 7: Trump would prosecute to the hardest. So I really doubt 447 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 7: that they're sincerely trying. 448 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 6: To hit us. 449 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 2: All right, Michael Allen, great to have you as always, 450 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 2: managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, also, of course former 451 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 2: special assistant to President George W. Bush serving in a 452 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 2: national security capacity. We appreciate it, and as we consider 453 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: the strait of horror moves and what we're seeing in 454 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 2: oil prices today again down the better part of six percent, 455 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 2: we want to turn to Bloomberg TV and Radio's resident 456 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 2: commodities expert Alex Steele is with us. She hosts Bloomberg 457 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 2: Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, as well as the close on 458 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV. So Alex obviously a pretty remarkable move to 459 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 2: the downside. When many came in today thinking that we 460 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 2: might see a massive spike in oil prices because of 461 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 2: concern in the Middle East, it seems that commodities traders 462 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 2: at least are thinking this might be an all clear sign. 463 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 4: Yeah. 464 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 9: I guess if you take away the worst case scenario 465 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 9: and that's actually helpful for lower oil prices. 466 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,360 Speaker 2: A couple things to consider. 467 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 9: The one, Helee Mcroff at RBC said over the weekend 468 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 9: that she would caution against that knee jerk reaction that quote, 469 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 9: the worst is behind us. The other factor to consider here, 470 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 9: irrespective of the supply issue that may or may not 471 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 9: happen with Iran, is the demand side. So there's been 472 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 9: a lot of stockpiling by China, a lot of stockpiling 473 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 9: by other countries within the West as well. Iran was 474 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 9: also exporting a lot more than normal before these strikes 475 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 9: took place, and China was really stockpiling that meaning that 476 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 9: they're not going to be that huge demand pull if 477 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 9: something does happen to the oil supply. Second, JP Morgan 478 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,880 Speaker 9: says that without any drama, they see a mid sixties 479 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,439 Speaker 9: range for oil for the remainder of twenty twenty five. So, 480 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 9: in essence, a WTI at sixty nine there's still even 481 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 9: a little bit more geoplitical premium baked in. 482 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 3: Boy, this seems like there's a heck of a lot 483 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 3: of confidence without knowing what's going to happen next year, Alex, 484 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 3: how much of this rides on this tip for tat 485 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 3: ending here? We've talked about any number of attempts that 486 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 3: Iran could make to interrupt energy flows. We've heard about 487 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 3: the Straight of hor moves and so forth. Are those 488 00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 3: all extreme scenarios that this market is ruling out? 489 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 9: I mean pretty much at this point, Like ruling out 490 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 9: the straight of Her Moves was really about taking out 491 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 9: a lot of geo political risk premium within the oil price. 492 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 9: That is clearly the absolute worst case scenario. There are 493 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 9: some things that range like if you take out one 494 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 9: point seventy five million barrels of oil a day, this 495 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 9: is Goldman Sachs saying this, then you'd see oil rise 496 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 9: to ninety dollars a barrel. If the oil through the 497 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 9: Strait of Hermoves. 498 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 2: Were to drop by just fifty percent. 499 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 9: Remember twenty million barrels of oil a day of fuel 500 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 9: and oil flows through that reduce that to fifty percent, 501 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 9: and you could see oil maybe ten percent higher for 502 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 9: another eleven months. So clearly that's the worst case scenario 503 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 9: that clearly is not happening at this moment. Can we 504 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 9: rule it out altogether? Alima Crop says no, you can't, 505 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 9: but it doesn't mean that it actually will happen. Many 506 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 9: say that that would wind up hurting everybody, including Iran. However, 507 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 9: you have to make an argument too that why would 508 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 9: Iran want to cut off any oil supply to China. 509 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 9: But again, like I mentioned, China's been stockpiling right, so 510 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 9: the immediate pack might not be that bad. And when 511 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 9: you have nothing to lose, there's still that risk is 512 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 9: that should be calculated within the market. 513 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 3: Alex Steele, what a treat to have Alex with us 514 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 3: here on this program, the host of Bloomberg Intelligence on 515 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio. But of course our commodities expert is Kaylie mentioned. 516 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for the insights, Alex. 517 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 518 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 519 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 520 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 521 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 522 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 2: We have been waiting to see what we will hear 523 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 2: from the White House and from President Trump in the 524 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 2: aftermath of this ironian retaliation against the US, and we 525 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,440 Speaker 2: did just get a true social post from the President. However, 526 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 2: it is not about missiles being sent toward a US 527 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 2: air base in the Middle East. Instead, it seems to 528 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 2: be a condemnation of the media for its reporting around 529 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 2: whether or not the US was fully able to destroy 530 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear sites. To read it, quote, the sites that 531 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,479 Speaker 2: we hit in Iran were totally destroyed and everyone knows it. 532 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 2: Only the fake news would say anything different in order 533 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 2: to try and demean as much as possible and even 534 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 2: say they were quote pretty well destroyed. He calls out Joe, 535 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 2: a number of individuals from various media organizations and goes 536 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 2: on to say it never ends with the sleeve bags 537 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 2: in the media, and that's why their ratings are at 538 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 2: an all time low zero credibility. There is also zero 539 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 2: mention of missiles being sent toward US forces in the 540 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 2: Middle East or of troops that were potentially put in 541 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 2: harm's way as a result of Iran's retaliation. 542 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's pretty remarkable if you're with us, some Bloomberg 543 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 3: TV giving you a shot of that truth social post. 544 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 3: I guess we can assume that the President has concluded 545 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 3: his meeting in the situation room, whereas at least taking 546 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 3: a break, and now that he's got access to his 547 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 3: personal phone again, seems to be consumed with the coverage 548 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 3: of the first round of strikes, not so much about 549 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 3: what's happening right now. It is an interesting moment here 550 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,959 Speaker 3: as we wait to see if Iran is complete or 551 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 3: is through with its retaliation, having targeted bases in the 552 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 3: Middle East, namely the massive US air installation in cutter 553 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 3: No US casualties so far, Kayley, he didn't mention that 554 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 3: as well. 555 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,719 Speaker 2: He did not, So we want to get reaction from 556 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 2: our political panel who was back with us in this 557 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 2: extended edition of Balance of Power. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo, 558 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 2: both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick is a partner 559 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,240 Speaker 2: at Stone Court Capital and genius Senior Democracy Fellow at 560 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, Rick, 561 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 2: when we consider what we just heard from the President, 562 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,360 Speaker 2: the first thing we hear from him in the aftermath 563 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 2: of Iran sending missiles toward a military installation in the 564 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 2: Middle East, knowing we haven't heard from him verbally at 565 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 2: least since he told the nation about his decision to 566 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 2: attack the nuclear sites late on Saturday night. Does a 567 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 2: country that may be concerned about war in this region, 568 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 2: that may be concerned about asymmetric actions Ron could still 569 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 2: take in regard to terrorism, need to hear more from 570 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:05,240 Speaker 2: the commander in chief. 571 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, no, I mean, look, I mean, you know, he 572 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 8: bristles over criticism and the idea that he could put 573 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 8: together such an effective military operation and total secrecy and 574 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:23,719 Speaker 8: not get everybody fawning of praise, some questioning, you know, 575 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 8: how long it's going to take to really assess the 576 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 8: damage done, especially door echoed by his own Chief of 577 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 8: Joint chiefs of Staff, General Kin, who said it's going 578 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 8: to take us a while to really assess the damage. 579 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 8: That's just standard operating procedure. But we know Donald Trump 580 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 8: does not adhere to standard operating procedure. He wants his 581 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 8: victory lap. So yeah, I'm not surprised he's stewing off 582 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 8: the coverage he's seen. It doesn't take any it doesn't 583 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 8: blemish the initiative that he took and the outcomes they 584 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 8: are what they're going to be. If you've ever seen 585 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 8: a explosion by one of the these thirty ton ordinances, 586 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 8: you wouldn't imagine anything other than total destruction would occur. 587 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,879 Speaker 8: And when you have multiple ones dropped on any facility 588 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,000 Speaker 8: ever created by man, you would really be suspect to 589 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 8: think that anything would survive, any structure or individual. So look, 590 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 8: the Iranians said that they dropped in the same number 591 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 8: of weapon bombs that the United States dropped on them. 592 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 8: They dropped on Cutter And to me, that's a sounding like, Okay, 593 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 8: this is all we're going to do. So for them 594 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 8: to light up a terrorists front around Western targets would 595 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 8: really escalate this thing. And I think the one thing 596 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 8: that the the COLMANI has been very adept at is 597 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 8: not getting into a direct confrontation with the United States. 598 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 3: Genie, what do you make of this post here? The 599 00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 3: President is not only talking, as Keigley mentioned, about whether 600 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 3: the nuclear installation was destroyed, but he's calling out by 601 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 3: name specific members of the media even reaching to the 602 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:12,320 Speaker 3: c suite here dumb Brian Roberts, he writes, chairman of Concast, 603 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:19,280 Speaker 3: helped to continue this falsehood. Where are we going here 604 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 3: in this moment for Donald Trump to be consumed by 605 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 3: what the media is reporting or thinking as he emerges 606 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,760 Speaker 3: from the situation room and Iran firing at US forces 607 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 3: in the Middle East. 608 00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 5: There is a very simple way for Donald Trump to 609 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:40,799 Speaker 5: address this obsession with the media, and that is to 610 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 5: show us the evidence he claimed that it was obliterated. 611 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 5: We have not seen that evidence yet, and it is 612 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 5: not enough to just keep saying something. You have to 613 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,879 Speaker 5: show the evidence. And there's nothing stopping the president once 614 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,720 Speaker 5: they get the evidence from providing that to the media. 615 00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 5: There was nothing stopping the president Saturday night when he 616 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 5: came out and telling us why he made the decision 617 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 5: to bomb a country. What was the imminent threat we 618 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 5: were facing? What is the threat to the United States? 619 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 5: You know, very few people in the US disagree with 620 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 5: the President on the objective of denuclearizing Iran. The question 621 00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 5: is how best to do it. He decided, for reasons 622 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:30,919 Speaker 5: that we still aren't really privy to, that he had 623 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,360 Speaker 5: to go in Saturday night and bomb them, and so 624 00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,440 Speaker 5: it is fair for the media and the American public 625 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 5: to say, did you achieve your objective? And so, you know, 626 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,640 Speaker 5: this is pretty typical not just of Donald Trump, but 627 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 5: any president. They don't like the media to be the 628 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 5: fourth branch of government, but that's what the media is 629 00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 5: supposed to do. We don't just accept what people say 630 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:58,440 Speaker 5: and claim. We provide evidence, and the president can provide that, 631 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 5: and he should as soon as is available. 632 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,400 Speaker 2: Well as we look to see whether or not we 633 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 2: will get that evidence either from the US, from Israel, 634 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 2: from the IAEA, or any other authority on that. We 635 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,680 Speaker 2: also are keeping track of how the markets have reacted 636 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 2: to the events of this afternoon or this evening in 637 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 2: the Middle East, with oil down six point six percent 638 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,919 Speaker 2: on both Brent and WTI and stocks actually on the rise, 639 00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 2: though we're still seeing a bit of what could be 640 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,919 Speaker 2: described as a haven bid into US treasuries. To get 641 00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 2: back to how this conflict moves forward, Rick, if this 642 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,680 Speaker 2: is the end of it between the US and Iran, 643 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:35,759 Speaker 2: and this gets to the point that Genie was just 644 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:40,160 Speaker 2: making around the President having decided without seeking congressional authority, 645 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 2: to bomb another country. Does this put to bed the 646 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:47,799 Speaker 2: concerns around constitutionality of the president's actions here, of the 647 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,239 Speaker 2: effort we've seen, frankly in both chambers in the House 648 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,600 Speaker 2: and the Senate to try to force votes on war 649 00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,920 Speaker 2: powers resolutions. If this is all as far as this goes, 650 00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 2: do you think those things will be seen as necessary? 651 00:37:59,520 --> 00:37:59,920 Speaker 2: Still on it. 652 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:01,759 Speaker 6: Now? 653 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,719 Speaker 8: I think that it was a pretty specious argument on 654 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 8: the Hill. I think Lindsey Graham handled it pretty well 655 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:11,840 Speaker 8: this weekend on Sunday shows, talking about how you know, 656 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,560 Speaker 8: within Article two of the Constitution, the commander in chief 657 00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:18,800 Speaker 8: has exhaustive powers on dealing with the military and making 658 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 8: decisions like this, and he pointed out it wasn't that 659 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 8: long ago that Democrats were applauding Barack Obama for doing 660 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:32,239 Speaker 8: very similar things in Syria and Iraq and in other 661 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,600 Speaker 8: places in the Middle East where he launched attacks that 662 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:40,880 Speaker 8: were unauthorized by Congress and no Democrat complaint. So I 663 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,680 Speaker 8: think this is business as usual politics playing itself out 664 00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:48,560 Speaker 8: on national security issues. It's unfortunate, but it is standard 665 00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,719 Speaker 8: operating procedure, and I don't think it goes anywhere from here. 666 00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 3: President's supposed to fly away to the annual NATO Leader's 667 00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,680 Speaker 3: summit tomorrow, Genie, presuming he still attends, how does this 668 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,680 Speaker 3: last forty eight hours change the conversation he's going to 669 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,920 Speaker 3: be having with world leaders at an event, say a 670 00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 3: month ago, would have been focused squarely on Ukraine, Russia 671 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 3: and the spending on defense by each member of NATO. 672 00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,799 Speaker 5: Yeah, this has quickly vaulted up to the number one 673 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:22,000 Speaker 5: issue on the agenda. And we hear the President is 674 00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,600 Speaker 5: still going to go. It would be understandable if he 675 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 5: decided he couldn't leave the country at this point, but 676 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,759 Speaker 5: I do think it is important. What distinguishes one of 677 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 5: the many things that the president did over the weekend, 678 00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,840 Speaker 5: and what we've seen in the recent past, is that 679 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:41,080 Speaker 5: other presidents, Republicans and Democrats have consulted allies. I mean, 680 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,520 Speaker 5: Kaylee was just talking about the lack of consultation to 681 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:48,520 Speaker 5: Democratic members of Congress. In this context, he didn't consult 682 00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,439 Speaker 5: allies either. This is a president who is not only 683 00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,680 Speaker 5: an interventionist, but he wants to go it alone. And 684 00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,200 Speaker 5: I bring up again Andrew Jackson, because Donald Trump has 685 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 5: described him as one of his favorite presid said, this 686 00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 5: is very much in the Jacksonian mode. We can do 687 00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,879 Speaker 5: it and we can do it alone, and I think 688 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,040 Speaker 5: the Allies are going to have a lot to say 689 00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:09,919 Speaker 5: on that. And just to go back to the War 690 00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,280 Speaker 5: Powers Act, Rick mentioned Article two rightly, so the president 691 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,480 Speaker 5: is the commander in chief, but we also have an 692 00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 5: Article one, section eight, which says Congress has the power 693 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:22,520 Speaker 5: to declare war. And the administration is falling over itself 694 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:23,080 Speaker 5: to say this. 695 00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 1: Isn't a war. 696 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:28,799 Speaker 5: But when you attack another country, by international law and 697 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 5: by most people's assessment of US law, you have engaged 698 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,840 Speaker 5: in a war. And so it is not as simple 699 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,239 Speaker 5: as saying the president's commander in chief, he can do 700 00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,880 Speaker 5: whatever he wants. That's simply not how the US Constitution 701 00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 5: was written or how we should operate. That said, this 702 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,239 Speaker 5: is a Congress and Rick is right on this, which 703 00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,080 Speaker 5: has gone along with presidents for a long time. My 704 00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,880 Speaker 5: view is, if you want to do that, then change 705 00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,840 Speaker 5: the constitution or write a law which allows the president 706 00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,759 Speaker 5: to act unilaterally. We don't have that now, and so 707 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,719 Speaker 5: this has likely been a violation of US international law 708 00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,000 Speaker 5: and UN standards and operating procedures. 709 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,360 Speaker 3: Analysis from our panel in Overtime with Rick Davis and 710 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:14,800 Speaker 3: Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg politics contributors. We thank you both thanks 711 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,960 Speaker 3: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure 712 00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,880 Speaker 3: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or 713 00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us 714 00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:27,160 Speaker 3: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at 715 00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:28,440 Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.