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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Are You going to place a bet? Doll? Walk?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. We're

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Speaker 1: back with our Experts Guide to Betting series. This is

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Speaker 1: the NHL edition. I'm your host Maria Marino, joined by

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Speaker 1: Action Network NHL experts Michael Leebof and Nick Martin, also

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Speaker 1: hosts of our hockey betting podcast, Line Change. Before we

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Speaker 1: get into best practices for betting NHL, I just want

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Speaker 1: to find out what makes you an expert on betting hockey.

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Speaker 1: Mike will start with you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been doing this for quite a while now

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Speaker 3: a decade, and I've been running Action Network's NHL arm

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Speaker 3: for half of that time. I would say as just

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Speaker 3: a hockey fan in general, I'm very familiar with the sport,

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Speaker 3: kind of the ebbs and flows of it. I've learned

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Speaker 3: who to learn from, if that makes sense, like folks

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Speaker 3: like Nick Martin who's along with us here and some

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Speaker 3: of our other Action analysts, other people into space as well,

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Speaker 3: and being able to take what they do best and

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Speaker 3: blend it with some of the stuff that I do well.

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Speaker 3: All of that has added up to me still here

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Speaker 3: doing this.

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Speaker 1: Nick, how long have you been betting on the NHL.

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Speaker 2: So I've been going at it for about eight or

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Speaker 2: nine years. Huge hockey fan, my whole life, grew up

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Speaker 2: playing hockey, so about eight or nine years and then

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Speaker 2: about five years where I've really been serious and really

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Speaker 2: understood how things work and been a level beyond what

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Speaker 2: I would say is kind of a casual and where

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Speaker 2: I've really merged a good understanding of hockey with a

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Speaker 2: good understanding of how to handicap at a high level.

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Speaker 1: Mike, what kind of unique challenges does the NHL present

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Speaker 1: from a betting perspective?

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Speaker 3: For one, the NHL is a sport that is played

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Speaker 3: on ice with a bunch of guys skating around with

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Speaker 3: knives on their feet, and it's just incredibly random. One

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Speaker 3: game of hockey is about as random as you can

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Speaker 3: get when you consider the environment that these athletes are

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Speaker 3: playing in. So that's one. You can also use these

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Speaker 3: challenges to your advantage, which is you know to play

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Speaker 3: into that variance more often than not. Number two is

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Speaker 3: just the lack of media coverage and news compared to

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Speaker 3: the other sports. Understanding what lineup in it ins and

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Speaker 3: outs mean in the NHL is a little bit more

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Speaker 3: difficult to quantify than saying the NBA, where the rotation

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Speaker 3: is a lot different compared to hockey. You know it

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Speaker 3: truly is. You know it's a cliche, but it is

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Speaker 3: a team sport and one player, as a general rule

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Speaker 3: of thumb, isn't going to have a gigantic impact on

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Speaker 3: a betting line. But where it really does, and Nick

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Speaker 3: can explain this better than anybody I know into space

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Speaker 3: is coming down to goaltending and understanding the rhythms of

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Speaker 3: an NHL season and kind of the general rules that

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Speaker 3: every NHL team follows when it comes to their goalies.

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Speaker 2: Ninety percent of the time or higher. Now, teams will

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Speaker 2: not go back to back with their starter, So right away,

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Speaker 2: if you see a line that's five and a half

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Speaker 2: and it doesn't really make sense, it looks like it

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Speaker 2: has to be a team implying their starters going the

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Speaker 2: next night. A lot of times you can get an

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Speaker 2: easy half goal on a total sometimes even more, where

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Speaker 2: all you're doing is assuming that the starter's not going

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Speaker 2: to go back to back, which I think it's a

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Speaker 2: really good example of where it's annoying for more novice

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Speaker 2: betters because you aren't going to have confirmation on these

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Speaker 2: sorts of things. But it's actually a good thing if

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Speaker 2: you're going to view it that way and use it

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Speaker 2: to your advantage more often. But I think it's just another

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Speaker 2: one of those things that lets the NHL be such

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Speaker 2: a good sport To handicap the last one, I'll say,

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Speaker 2: just for props. In the NHL, prop markets don't get

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Speaker 2: adjusted as much as other sports based on absences, so

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Speaker 2: you can pick off these ones where midday, say someone's

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Speaker 2: going to sit if you can understand who that benefits

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Speaker 2: the most very quickly, you can try to get on

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Speaker 2: someone's lines. With show props, the majority of it is

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Speaker 2: just how much time they're going to play, And obviously

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Speaker 2: that's a big part of prop betting with the NFL

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Speaker 2: and with the NBA. But I just think that oddsmakers

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Speaker 2: are a lot more on it with those sports in

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Speaker 2: terms of like if a big name drops out, props

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Speaker 2: get cut off, they reopen later with new numbers that

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Speaker 2: are adjusted, whereas in the NHL typically you do have

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Speaker 2: a window where you can try to get some some

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Speaker 2: bets in before the news is fully hit.

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Speaker 1: How can a regular listener out there actually become good

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Speaker 1: at betting the NHL. What does it take for casuals

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Speaker 1: and fanatics alike?

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Speaker 3: Mike, Well, the good news is that the NHL market

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Speaker 3: is a lot softer compared to the NFL, the NBA,

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Speaker 3: college football, basically any other sport that Americans tend to bet.

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Speaker 3: The NHL is probably at the bottom of the list,

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Speaker 3: which is it sounds frustrating from a fan perspective, but

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Speaker 3: for better it's good news because it means that bookmakers

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Speaker 3: aren't as quick to adjust, they aren't paying attention to everything.

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Speaker 3: You know, by saying that, I'm not saying like you

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Speaker 3: can catch bookmakers sleeping on money lines for like a game,

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Speaker 3: but the derivatives of you know, player props and stuff

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Speaker 3: like that, that all kind of that all kind of

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Speaker 3: works to your advantage here because you can beat a

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Speaker 3: book maker to a soft line on a player prop

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Speaker 3: if maybe some guy got scratched or there was a

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Speaker 3: trade or something. You can do it in the NHL,

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Speaker 3: whereas like in the NFL, since it's just NonStop twenty

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Speaker 3: four seven, three sixty five, the people sending the lines

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Speaker 3: are on the ball with just about everything. So realizing

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Speaker 3: that is important and then of course getting used to

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Speaker 3: just general betting one on one concepts that you can

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Speaker 3: then apply to hockey, whether it's you know, trying not

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Speaker 3: to chase steam, making sure you're getting the best number,

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Speaker 3: shopping around, knowing the ebbs and flows of a season,

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Speaker 3: taking into consideration stuff like rest and schedule, spots, travel,

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Speaker 3: all that kind of stuff. But like I said, the

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Speaker 3: good news is like, if you're on the ball with

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Speaker 3: that kind of stuff, you stand a legitimate chance, especially

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Speaker 3: compared to the NFL, the NBA, college football, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Nick anything you want to add there, And when or

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Speaker 1: how do you think you developed from sort of casually

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Speaker 1: betting to truly understanding the landscape of the NHL.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I always had a good understanding of

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Speaker 2: the sport, but when I developed into like as much

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Speaker 2: stronger handicapper, or was when you really get into all

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Speaker 2: the good stuff with bank roll management and all those

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Speaker 2: good things that really do matter. You're definitely they're all

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Speaker 2: very important, And I think it was kind of when

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Speaker 2: I really had that understanding of like just getting the

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Speaker 2: best numbers, how lines move, how those are going to

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Speaker 2: pay off in your ultimate edges where nobody's good enough

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Speaker 2: to win, like especially betting sides on the NHL and

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Speaker 2: all sports. Obviously it's the same thing for NFL and NBA.

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Speaker 2: No one's good enough to win without claiming those those

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Speaker 2: best lines, without getting on things early when you know

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Speaker 2: the prices are going to move and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 2: You just can't cover that in this day and age.

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Speaker 2: So I think once I kind of got it into

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Speaker 2: a place where I understood those things and really found

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Speaker 2: a way to make sure I got money in at

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Speaker 2: the right times and that sort of thing to create

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Speaker 2: the greatest edge is when I started to really get

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Speaker 2: somewhere with it.

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Speaker 1: So guys, help us establish a foundation for betting this sport. Nick,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned having a pulse on everything that's going on.

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Speaker 1: What are the other pillars that we need to know

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Speaker 1: going into this.

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Speaker 2: With overnight bets. If you really keep a pulse on it,

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Speaker 2: there are lines that are just so soft where I

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Speaker 2: would say with a high degree of confidence, it's just wrong,

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Speaker 2: Like it's just off what the actual number should be.

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Speaker 2: And you can really pick apart those numbers if you

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Speaker 2: bet early, and getting to the point where you understand

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Speaker 2: enough things to really get which numbers are off is

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Speaker 2: a really complicated conversation. That's where you truly need to

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Speaker 2: understand all of these little intricacies of the sport, but

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Speaker 2: you can get there. And one of the reasons that's

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Speaker 2: the best to work out is that the NHL does

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Speaker 2: clearly have some softer lines than sports.

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Speaker 3: In the NFL. For example, if the Jacksonville Jaguars are

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Speaker 3: playing in London like the next week, the book makers

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Speaker 3: they're going to know that, right They're gonna make sure

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Speaker 3: that they're going to adjust for that travel, Whereas in

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Speaker 3: the NHL, like you'll have situations where a team is

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Speaker 3: on a fourth game at six nights and they just

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Speaker 3: traveled from Nashville across the country to Philadelphia, and maybe

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Speaker 3: they're planning the flyers who aren't good, but that's a

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Speaker 3: great spot for Philly, right like, And it's because it's

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Speaker 3: the NHL that adjustment's not going to come until the

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Speaker 3: morning when the quote unquote real market opens up and

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Speaker 3: the big money bets come in on let's say an

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Speaker 3: underdog like Philadelphia waiting for a favorite traveling across country

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Speaker 3: in a bed schedule spot. So, as Nick said, like

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Speaker 3: identifying those spots the night before and betting into them

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Speaker 3: is really important and for recreational betters who are listening

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Speaker 3: to the show, Like, you can get your bets down

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Speaker 3: the night before in the NHL and you'll beat the

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Speaker 3: market if you can identify those spots. And whereas if

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers just someone saw him sneeze on the sidelines

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Speaker 3: like the next the next week, that number is going

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Speaker 3: to be adjusted.

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Speaker 1: So betting early is key. This is why Line Change,

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Speaker 1: which is Action Networks hockey betting podcast hosted by the

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Speaker 1: two of you, records and releases twice a week the

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Speaker 1: night before the slate. Very good to know any other

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Speaker 1: fundamentals we missed.

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Speaker 3: Mike, Yeah, I would just get very familiar with, you know,

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Speaker 3: some of some of the predictive metrics that Nick and

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Speaker 3: I like to use, which is it's funny because soccer

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Speaker 3: and hockey end up being very similar in handicapping, and

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Speaker 3: you think about to do two sports and there's not

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Speaker 3: all that much in common, including the surface that is

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Speaker 3: played on and the number of players on the surface

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Speaker 3: that it is played on. Expected goals is probably the

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Speaker 3: most important one to start with. That's that's usually where

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Speaker 3: Nick and I build off of. That kind of tells

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Speaker 3: you what team is generally tilting the ice in either

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Speaker 3: the right or wrong direction, And we tend to look

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Speaker 3: at five on five metrics much more than we'll look

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Speaker 3: at special teams because it's just a lot more volatile

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Speaker 3: when you bring those things. And of course teams can

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Speaker 3: profile well as a with a with a great power play,

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Speaker 3: and that helps of course, Boston Toronto these kind of

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Speaker 3: teams have had terrific power plays in the recent past,

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Speaker 3: and you have to adjust for that. But for the

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Speaker 3: most part, for most of the teams in this league,

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Speaker 3: you're you're looking at five on five numbers like expected

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Speaker 3: goals and shot attempts, high danger chances, stuff like that,

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Speaker 3: and seeing do their actual results match up with their

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Speaker 3: predictive metrics and if not, is there a reason to it.

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Speaker 3: If if there isn't, maybe that's a team that will

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Speaker 3: be under or overvalued in the market. So trying to

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Speaker 3: keep an eye out for trends like that is is

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Speaker 3: quite important embedding the NHL and in other sports of

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Speaker 3: course as well.

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Speaker 1: What are the most important tools, resources and other data

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Speaker 1: points that you and Nick use on a nightly basis,

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Speaker 1: and you know what should be in your toolkit as

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Speaker 1: a sharp hockey better.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the first thing is to just get familiar with

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Speaker 3: what do these odds mean right like minus one fifty?

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Speaker 3: What does that actual meant actually mean in terms of

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Speaker 3: what am I betting? Well, you're betting a team. Does

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Speaker 3: the team win over x per or do you think

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Speaker 3: a team is going to win over x percentage of

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Speaker 3: a time. So once you get familiar with like implied probabilities,

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Speaker 3: I think then you can start to build in other

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Speaker 3: kind of betting tools, if you will. In terms of

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Speaker 3: stats expected goals, we use it all the time. I

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Speaker 3: look at stuff like shot attempts, team like say percentage

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Speaker 3: against expected Say percentage is a team's defensive metrics just

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Speaker 3: being propped up by a goalie who is standing on

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Speaker 3: his head. We saw this with the most recent Stanley

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Speaker 3: Cup playoffs with the Florida Panthers, who everyone was talking

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Speaker 3: about how well they were playing defensively, but because they

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Speaker 3: weren't letting up many goals. But when you actually watch

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Speaker 3: the games, and this is a point of that Nick

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Speaker 3: made throughout the entire their entire run, was they were

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Speaker 3: having defensive breakdowns. Their goaltender was just bailing them out.

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Speaker 3: So when you kind of married together high danger chances

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Speaker 3: and say percentages and as a goalie just Red hot

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Speaker 3: right now and making those high danger chances go away

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Speaker 3: because he's playing out of his mind, or vice versa.

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Speaker 3: The team's doing well defensively, but a goalie is not

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Speaker 3: playing up to snuff, like using your eyes, Like if

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Speaker 3: you're a hockey fan, you can trust that you can

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Speaker 3: spot a team that's playing well or playing poorly for

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Speaker 3: three or four game samples. So all these things kind

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Speaker 3: of marry into one big toolkit, I guess if you will.

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Speaker 2: The majority of NHL betting is on money lines, but

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Speaker 2: I also think this is a fun area to tie together.

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Speaker 2: Like I think there are unique spots where you can

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Speaker 2: play reverse puck lines profitably and play some puck lines.

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Speaker 2: So a standard puck line is minus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: A lot of the times these come down to empty nets,

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Speaker 2: so it's a whole new bet and it's a whole

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Speaker 2: new kind of world you're getting into When the vast

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Speaker 2: majority of puck lines are going to get settled on

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Speaker 2: an empty net, which is close to fifty to fifty,

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Speaker 2: your whole BET's going to come down to one moment

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Speaker 2: at the end of the game, in the final minute

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Speaker 2: and thirty, which is interesting. And yeah, I just think

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Speaker 2: it's one more thing to understand where you're going to

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Speaker 2: try to decide whether you'd rather play a team straight

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Speaker 2: up or with a puck line. In general, they're going

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Speaker 2: to have a similar eventual value. Sometimes the way I'll

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Speaker 2: do it is if I, especially with an underdog, if

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Speaker 2: I think it's a spot where they could really show out,

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Speaker 2: maybe I'll get on a reverse puck line where you

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Speaker 2: get a really long price. And then the other way

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Speaker 2: that's working the NHL is three way money lines are

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Speaker 2: quite popular, and I actually really like three way money lines,

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Speaker 2: which is just where tie is a result, away team

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Speaker 2: win is a result, and home team win as a result,

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Speaker 2: and it's just another way to get a slightly better

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Speaker 2: price on a home team. But like I said, it's

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Speaker 2: going to run with a similar eventual value to just

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Speaker 2: a regular money line. Some people just don't want to

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Speaker 2: lay minus two twenty, so you might play a three

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Speaker 2: way money line for minus one point fifty.

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Speaker 1: Can you just touch on Mike the sort of media schedule,

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Speaker 1: and also you talked about the lack of robust media

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Speaker 1: or the less robust media, and do you feel like

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Speaker 1: that makes coaches just have less accountability and then in effect,

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Speaker 1: information becomes more scarce.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, NHL coaches than anyone employed by these teams. They

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Speaker 3: just lie all the time. They're just not you know whatever.

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Speaker 3: They're trying to get an edge in their own world,

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Speaker 3: and it is less accountability from the media. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that, you know, an NFL coach can get away

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Speaker 3: with some of the stuff that NHL coaches get away with,

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Speaker 3: because it would become a national story, you know, be

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Speaker 3: on first take and stuff like that, and whereas like

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Speaker 3: an NHL coach can can just lie to you all

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Speaker 3: season long and nobody is nobody outside of like the

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Speaker 3: hockey spheres is going to even notice it. So as

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Speaker 3: a general rule, we just always wait for morning skates,

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Speaker 3: which are usually ten or eleven am local time, whether

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Speaker 3: that's Pacific Central or Eastern, and by that time, like that,

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Speaker 3: the lineup you see on the ice is almost always

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Speaker 3: going to be the one that you're going to see

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Speaker 3: that night. But if you can, like as Nick was

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Speaker 3: saying before, if you can have an idea of what

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Speaker 3: a coach is thinking, even before they confirm it, you're

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Speaker 3: going to beat the market. More often than not. To

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Speaker 3: a goalie change, sometimes to a player being injured, you

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Speaker 3: just want to be on top of that stuff. So

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Speaker 3: if you're betting after the morning skate, you might it

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Speaker 3: might be a little bit too late for stuff like that.

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Speaker 3: So I would just do everything you can to kind

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Speaker 3: of figure out the rhythms and the coach speak.

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Speaker 1: Mike, would you say the same sort of logic applies

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Speaker 1: during the NHL off season and is there anything in

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Speaker 1: particular that we should stay on top of during that time.

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Speaker 3: I think so, yeah, because a recent example would be

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Speaker 3: that Nick and I as we wrapped up our season

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Speaker 3: of line change for twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 3: we had a conversation at the end about how the

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Speaker 3: Devils were set up to become They're already short a

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Speaker 3: short price. They were one of the top five favorites,

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Speaker 3: but the buzz around the Devils was that they were

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Speaker 3: going to be pretty aggressive in trying to fill out

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Speaker 3: the rest of their team. They were maybe one or

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Speaker 3: two pieces short of being a true, true elite team

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Speaker 3: in the league, and they've already done that as we

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Speaker 3: speak now, and the two of us that had a

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Speaker 3: conversation about we think the Devils are going to end

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Speaker 3: up as maybe the favorite or co favorite to win

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Speaker 3: the Stanley Cup by the time the regular season starts.

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Speaker 3: We talked about some other teams down the board as well,

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Speaker 3: and that's just being in tune with with with the

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Speaker 3: league before anyone else. Like, how many people do you

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Speaker 3: know are paying attention to the NHL offseason? I don't

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Speaker 3: want to assume, but I'm gonna guess it's it's probably

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Speaker 3: a lot less than people who can tell you what

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Speaker 3: you know. Aaron Rodgers' favorite restaurant is in New York City, right,

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Speaker 3: Like it's it's it's just not going to be a

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Speaker 3: lot of people in your life. So if you can,

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Speaker 3: if you're one of those people, you stand a chance

337
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 3: of understanding the landscape and which teams are set up

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00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 3: to make a jump and beat the market to that jump,

339
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Speaker 3: if before a big move is made, before they sign

340
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Speaker 3: a free agent, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Right, the news cycle in an NHL offseason does not

342
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Speaker 1: seem to be nearly as active as it does for say,

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Speaker 1: the NFL or NBA.

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Speaker 3: All right, a.

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Speaker 1: Couple more quick questions for you guys before we wrap

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Speaker 1: this up. How would you describe just an ideal betting

347
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Speaker 1: opportunity heading into any given NHL game?

348
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Speaker 2: Nick, whether there's one team that maybe hasn't had ideal

349
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Speaker 2: results lately, or they're facing off a team that's heavily

350
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Speaker 2: or valued, and it just sets up as a spot

351
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Speaker 2: where the number has gotten way too long. You can

352
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Speaker 2: see where these teams are in terms of the kind

353
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Speaker 2: of results that they should have been getting compared to

354
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Speaker 2: what they have been getting. And that happens so much

355
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Speaker 2: in hockey, where the game's so random and a couple

356
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Speaker 2: of bounces will decide every outing. This also ties into

357
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Speaker 2: what we're seeing with the bets a night before, where

358
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Speaker 2: most of the time those spots will pop out really quick.

359
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Speaker 2: You'll see the opening numbers come out and you'll know

360
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:54,680
Speaker 2: that right away you really want to get on that.

361
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,439
Speaker 2: And sometimes the line value that you will gain in

362
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Speaker 2: the NHL is kind of absurd, like it only compares

363
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 2: with other niche sports, whereas like in football, I'm seeing

364
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 2: betters talk about it's crazy if they gained like a

365
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 2: whole point, a whole point in half, and you look

366
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,399
Speaker 2: at what that actually means in terms of where the

367
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,120
Speaker 2: money line moves to from where it was, and it's

368
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 2: not comparable at all, Like the NHL is regularly forty

369
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 2: cents fifty cents, and that can just come with nothing happening.

370
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 2: That can just be money pouring in on one side

371
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 2: and the odds makers realizing probably where a number should

372
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Speaker 2: have been to begin with.

373
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Speaker 1: Mike, would you agree that you also have to decipher

374
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Speaker 1: just the results and what about the box score might

375
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:34,400
Speaker 1: be fluky?

376
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Nick, Nick put it pretty much perfectly. And

377
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 3: you can throw schedule spots like the one I alluded

378
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 3: to before about a team maybe playing a very busy schedule,

379
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 3: tough schedule, maybe they just ran a gauntlet. There's some

380
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 3: parts of the NHL schedule that are notorious for teams

381
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 3: from different parts of the country. For example, I'm on

382
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: Long Island for the Islanders traveling out to like the

383
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 3: Pacific Northwest when they play a Seattle, Vancouver and Minton

384
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 3: Calgary and then they're coming home like that that game

385
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 3: at home shouldn't they shouldn't really have a homeless advantage,

386
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 3: depending on, you know, if the other team is kind

387
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 3: of playing a more normal travel schedule. So stuff like

388
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,359
Speaker 3: that I always always love to bet into. And like

389
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 3: Nick said, if you're if you pull up a team

390
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 3: and you look at their last ten games and and

391
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: you see and especially if it's a smaller market team,

392
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 3: let's say the Senators or something. Uh, and they're losing

393
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 3: eight out of ten and seven of those losses are

394
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 3: one goals or overtime. You can tell that this team

395
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 3: is probably better than that two and eight record, and

396
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,680
Speaker 3: maybe they're playing a team that has more name brand recognition,

397
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 3: whether it's Tampa Bay, Boston, whoever, and maybe the opposite's

398
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 3: true for them. And you've noticed like this, this team

399
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 3: isn't playing as as well as their record portrays. And

400
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 3: when those two teams collide, Uh, that's that's my my

401
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 3: favorite thing to jump in on. And it's not a

402
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 3: harder fast rule that that bet is gonna win, but

403
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 3: more often than not, you'll you'll get a good number.

404
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 1: What about live betting? How do you both approach that?

405
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 2: Nick, We'll start with you, so live betting on the NHL,

406
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 2: The main play that I'm looking to target is live sides,

407
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: and it always involves a team that's trailing in a game.

408
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 2: So just getting a long number on a team that's trailing,

409
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: particularly late when the algorithms are really ramping up quickly,

410
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,439
Speaker 2: and in particular, certain teams, depending on their ability to

411
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,680
Speaker 2: play with a goalie poll then that sort of thing

412
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 2: that's kind of the main spot I look to target. Obviously,

413
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: to be profitable live betting, you do need to have

414
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,199
Speaker 2: a heightened edge because they are taking extra juice compared

415
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,199
Speaker 2: to a normal bet, so you need to factor that

416
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 2: in when you're doing regular percentages. Like I think a

417
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 2: good example of probably you don't want to do too

418
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 2: often is five or six minutes into a game, you

419
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: look at how a team is playing and it's zero zero,

420
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 2: and you think, now you've gained enough edge and enough

421
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: knowledge from that five six minutes of play to jump in.

422
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 2: I think that's tough, but yeah, I do think that

423
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 2: the NHL, again, probably has better live edges than some sports.

424
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: I don't know anybody who's live vetting strategy is to

425
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 3: bet the team that goes ahead in the NHL early

426
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 3: because you're gonna pay a significant tax. And it's such

427
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 3: a ran in sport. And as we saw last season

428
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 3: that being the twenty twenty two twenty twenty three season,

429
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 3: there were more multi goal comebacks and basically any time

430
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 3: ever in the NHL scoring is up, that increases variance

431
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 3: and all that stuff kind of dominoes into one of

432
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: one another. If you're watching a full NHL game, if

433
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 3: you're listening to this, if you found this podcast, you

434
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 3: probably have an idea of like the rhythm of a game,

435
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 3: and you can tell if a team maybe is on

436
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 3: its heels a little bit despite being up three to

437
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 3: one or two to one late. And I would just

438
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 3: trust your instinct in those spots, because even though you're

439
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 3: paying a tax live betting, no matter what, there are

440
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,919
Speaker 3: comebacks in the NHL all the time. Teams score in

441
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 3: those last two minutes all season long. And if you

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00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 3: think you can identify those spots and you feel it like,

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00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 3: I think you're more than okay to trust yourself if

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00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 3: you've been watching that entire game and have a good

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00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 3: feel for it.

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00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 1: Let's end on this nick for you, what is the

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00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 1: ultimate thrill betting and NHL game?

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00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 2: I'd stick with where we're at and just say, betting

449
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 2: on a team that's losing to come back and win

450
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: the game, you're obviously taking a really long number. So

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00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 2: if you bet on a team down two on or

452
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 2: whatever with some minutes left and they tie it and

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00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 2: come back and win, I think those are the most

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00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: fun bets. You got to be careful not to do

455
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 2: them too much and trying to make sure you still

456
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,439
Speaker 2: have an understanding of what the actual percentage chance of

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00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: that happening is. But I don't think it gets better

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00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 2: than those live bets. We're teams coming back from behind.

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00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,479
Speaker 3: Same for you, Mike, Yeah, for me, it's uh. I

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00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: love betting big under dogs and hockey. I love watching

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00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 3: them get a multi goal maybe three nothing lead, blowing

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00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 3: that three goal lead and then hanging on to win,

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00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 3: maybe an overtime or getting a late goal. That's my favorite.

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00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 3: Happens very rarely in an NHL season, but when you

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00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 3: get to touch every emotion, which is, you know, the

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00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 3: euphoria of backing a plus two seventy five underdog, watching

467
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 3: them go out to a three nothing lead. Then you

468
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 3: get to go all the way to the bottom of

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00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 3: the pit watching them blow that three goal lead and

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00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: then right back up to the top by them cashing

471
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 3: the bet. That that's hockey in a nutshell. The swings

472
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 3: are are outrageous, and that's when I when I truly

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00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 3: feel alive.

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Speaker 1: Well. This has been the Action Network podcast presented by

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00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 1: a fan Duel Our Experts Guide to Betting series NHL

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00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 1: addition for Michael Leeboff and Nick Martin. I'm Maria Marino. Guys,

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00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: where can anyone listening follow you?

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00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 3: You can follow me in the Action Network app at

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00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 3: leeboff m. My twitter is the Big Lee Bowski at

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00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 3: two ease. Nick and I both host our Action Network

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00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 3: Hockey Betting podcast, what you Mean before Line Change with

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00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,479
Speaker 3: an exclamation point, and of course you can find me

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00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 3: at Actionnetwork dot com. I also write for our partnerships

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00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 3: with The New York Post and Philadelphia Choir as well.

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00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: I'm on the Action App at Nicholas K. Martin on

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00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: Twitter at Nick m Underscore Hockey, and all my writing

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00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: on game guides and day to day lives on the

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00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: Action App as well.

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00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you haven't already, you gotta download the award

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00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 1: winning Action App. There are so many tools that you

491
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: can take advantage of, including market reports. Also, be on

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00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 1: the lookout for our other expert guides just sports Betting,

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00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 1: with episodes being released throughout the summer right here on

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00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. Thanks again for listening.

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00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.

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Speaker 1: Twenty four seven at one eight hundred gambler