WEBVTT - FFW 1-12-24 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:05.080 Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio. 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:11.480 Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.520 source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.280 whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:20.720 Now here's your host, Paul Chargion. 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:27.640 Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, Playoff edition. Yes, it's taken 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.000 us eighteen long weeks to get here, but Brian Johnson, 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:33.920 we've got playoff football. 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:38.440 Lots of it, and some football weather as people like 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:39.839 to call it, right, Yeah. 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:41.200 You know, I think I think a lot of it's 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.880 being overstated. You know, I'll believe it when I see it. 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:45.680 This is the time of week when a lot of 0:00:45.720 --> 0:00:51.120 times people are are suggesting way worse weather than it 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:51.839 turns out to be. 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:57.320 Yeah, I don't think there's something denying the cold that's 0:00:57.360 --> 0:00:58.320 gonna be in Kansas City. 0:00:58.360 --> 0:00:59.200 Though it'll be cold. 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:01.280 We'll get into all these games, of course, Yeah, like 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:03.720 historically cold for you know, I think of like the 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:08.680 Giants Packers game in seven, the red based Yeah, Tom 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.200 Coughlin game Vikings Seahawks. 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.120 I think is the most recent game that's in this ballpark. 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:18.280 That one was negative five. I believe it kickoff, and 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:20.640 of course Bud Grant came running out. 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:24.200 In Minnesota Stadium. Of course, people wondering they're plight the 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:27.520 Gopher Stadium. Yeah, we Grant yep, shorts leeves. 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:30.039 Yep when they were building US Bank Stadium. So that 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.960 was that was epic for sure. Lots of games to 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:35.480 get through. And the way I decided to do this 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.040 rather than like break every date game down and completely 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:41.039 like FFW style, I just want to pick out sort 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:45.000 of key interesting angles from each one of these. It 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.480 could be for use in your DFS team. It could 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.040 be for use if you're cobbling together a playoff roster 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:52.240 like the full playoffs. If you're a better you could 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:55.040 probably use some of this for prop bets. So however 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:56.520 you want to play. I think this is going to 0:01:56.560 --> 0:02:00.000 be some cool stuff to look at, Brian, and I thought, 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.120 maybe we just attack these in the order in which 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:04.520 they will be played this weekend. 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:06.000 Makes sense. 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.840 That brings us to Cleveland Houston. This is with all 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:12.639 the great quarterbacks that are coming up this weekend, Brian. 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.000 So like Miami, you get Tua versus Mahomes, then we 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.280 got Josh Allen, and we've got Jordan Love who might 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.560 be the third consecutive Hall of Fame quarterback for the 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:26.160 for the Packers at Dallas and Dak Prescott. You've got 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.960 the great quarterback situation between the Rams and the Lions. 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.400 You've got Jalen Hurts and whether or not he's you 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:33.919 know how hurt is he going to be? Can he 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:38.320 be effective? But the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:39.600 Joe Flacco. 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:40.000 C J. 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:42.919 Stroud is my favorite game from this whole weekend. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.080 The first one. I'm going to watch. The other ones 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:47.600 I don't. I'm not getting Peacock after that game. I'm 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.440 the I'm the Mahomes and Tua. Yeah, this is the 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:51.600 primetime game right here. 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:54.160 I love this game. So I want to the angle 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:55.799 I want to talk to you about that I'm really 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:59.280 interested in. Is a big game from c J. Stroud. 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:01.840 I think most of America doesn't realize how good CJ. 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:05.560 Stroud is. And because the Texans were never on national 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:10.920 television they had only noon local time starts every week 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.880 until Week eighteen when they had their win and in 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:17.120 game against the Colts, most of the country doesn't realize 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:18.600 just how good CJ. Stroud is. 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:23.760 Brian no and like what he's really catching fire. Maybe 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:25.839 they would have flexed Houston into one of the primetime games, 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:27.280 and then he got hurt and he missed what two 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.240 three games. That's a road with the concussion. 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:30.320 Yeah yeah, but I. 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:33.400 Am he's gonna see how he handles the big lights, 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:34.120 the bright lights. 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.200 Even knowing our listeners are hardcore football fans, I bet 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.800 most of them don't realize Houston has won seven of 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.560 the last ten games. You know, it took him a 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:48.680 little while to sort of shake off several years of losing, 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:52.119 right and then you know the last over the last 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.080 ten games, I get seven wins. I mean that's you know, 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:57.160 those are in several of the legitimate wins against good teams. 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:02.200 So let's talk about CJ. Stroud in particular. The Cleveland secondary. 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:07.800 Denzel Ward questionable, Mike Ford questionable, two important cornerbacks safety 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.320 Grant Delpit just got put on IR and the other 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.920 safety wants Thornhill, may not play in this game. Those 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:17.479 are huge angles. And the other thing that I think 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:19.920 is really interesting is that you know, we all view 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:22.960 Cleveland as an elite defense, and they are a good defense, 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:28.039 but you know what their pass defense was elite for 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.599 the first twelve games, Let's talk about the more recent 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:38.279 six games. Cleveland yielding sixty one more passing yards over 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:42.039 the most recent six games and over the double number 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:45.880 of passing touchdowns two over two two point one passing 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:50.280 touchdowns per game over the last six Brian this pass 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.920 defense and get a load of this over those four games, 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:58.479 justin fields, Davis Mills, Trevor Simeon, and Jake Browning were 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.200 among the quarterbacks who were putting up big games and 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:07.080 helping propel Cleveland to the to the futility stats that 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:08.280 I just mentioned. 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:14.040 That's gonna be a whole nother story with Stroud under 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:17.120 the safety of a dome too. You got all the 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:17.800 dome games. 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.320 By the way, I didn't realize that games. You're right, 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:22.960 I got, I got, I got. I don't have any 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:26.360 to deal with any weather for any of my games. No, yeah, 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:29.719 the uh. If I were allowed to legally bet in Minnesota, 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:31.520 I would be betting C. J. Stroud over one and 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:35.760 a half passing touchdowns. I'm not Houston scores through the air, 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:42.359 as anybody who rostered Damian Pierce sorry or Devin Singletary knows, 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:46.280 they don't score on the ground. This team scored seventy 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:51.400 five percent of their touchdowns through the air, Nico Collins, 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:56.800 and maybe, if you're feeling up to it, how about 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:00.279 a little Dalton Shultz as an angle here or for 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:03.320 receiving touchdown as well. I like I like those angles. 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:06.920 I think I think scores are coming here another reason. 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:08.960 And by the way, I was gonna ask, is this 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.799 the this might be the highest over under of the weekend. 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:15.880 No, it's not. No, it's uh, it's great. I think yeah, 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:17.360 I think it is done. I think that one's like 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:19.240 fifty five. Uh. 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.040 Everybody to guess all the Dome games of the top 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:24.080 three probably probably. 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:26.080 Uh, here's the other angle I want to talk. 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.640 And and a half. Well, we'll get to those of 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:29.160 the games later. 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:31.960 Go ahead, Sorry, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, I think 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.600 are going to struggle in this game. So we mentioned 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:37.760 Houston played it's nationally It's one nationally telbysed game last week, 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:42.240 and Jonathan Taylor ran through the Texans and almost single 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:46.119 handedly brought the Colts to the playoffs. But Taylor couldn't 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:52.480 quite get there but a. It took Taylor thirty carries 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:54.960 in that game to get to his hundred and eighty 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:58.240 eight rushing yards. But more importantly, that output was a 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:03.159 total anomaly against a surging Houston run defense. Get a 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:05.320 load of this. How great the Houston run defense had 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:08.640 been prior to Jonathan Taylor last week in the ten games. 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.400 Prior ten games along sample size, I'd mentioned that ten 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:15.760 game win loss thing for Reston in the prior ten games, 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:21.280 Brian Houston's run defense giving up two point seven yards 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:26.640 per carry. That's it. Here's what some better runners than 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.360 Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have done against Houston recently. 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.160 Two meetings with Derrick Henry his average game twenty five 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.440 yards and one point eight yards per carry, Breese Hall 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:41.640 forty yards, Javonte Williams forty six yards, Travis Etn averaged 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.080 two point eight yards per carry. Joe Mixon put up 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:47.320 forty six yards, and two games ago when these teams met, 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:53.440 Jerome Ford twenty five yards, Kareem Hunt eleven yards rushing. 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:57.400 That's it. I believe Houston's gonna win this game. 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:00.840 They're the underdogs. 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.960 I believe they are underdogs. I believe three is point underdogs. 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.040 Yeah, I was wrong. Forty four and a half point 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:12.080 over under. It is the third highest but it's like 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:15.080 six seven points behind the other two indoor games, Dallas, 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:16.760 Green Bay Rams. 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:20.160 Well, it's because you know, people broadly believe this Cleveland defense. 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:23.600 I think the perception was set through those first twelve 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:27.400 weeks that Cleveland is a shut down defense. I'm just 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.600 here to say they haven't played that way for six weeks. 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:35.400 Yeah. I like parlaying the over with those props you mentioned, 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:40.040 the Stroud overs, maybe the you know, hit that over. 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.200 The Texans got to score some points, and they're gonna 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:45.120 do that through the air, like you said, most likely. 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:49.080 All right, let's go to Miami taking on Kansas City. 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:52.360 All right, Yeah, we know it's gonna be cold, negative 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.280 twenty wind, chill, all that stuff. Tickets are like forty 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:59.120 bucks right now. I saw. That's pretty crazy for a 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:02.679 Chiefs playoff, that really is. I doubt Taylor Swift will 0:09:02.679 --> 0:09:06.040 be there. But these teams played this season actually in Germany. 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.160 If you recall back in Week nine, the pre hard 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:10.640 knock days for the Dolphins. 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:13.240 Have you been watching I've not watched the end the 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.920 season hard knocks. I watch a lot of football, Brian, 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:17.760 I get enough, as. 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:19.559 Do I But I don't know. I don't know he's 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.480 still in between the football you are. My favorite part 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:24.120 of Hard Knocks is the non football, though I hate 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.640 when they show the football in Hard Knocks. I like 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:28.559 all the all field stuff, but the anyway, it was 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.600 an ugly game Chiefs one twenty one to fourteen, and 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:35.080 that one can't probably be an ugly game in this one. 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:38.000 Kansas City four and a half point favorites over Under 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:40.360 a forty three and a half. We expect the weather, 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:44.000 the extreme cold, to play a role in this game. 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:48.120 On the injury front, Raheem Moster expected to make his return, 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.560 but Miami's defense is all sorts of banged up. Xavian 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:56.640 Howard has been ruled out both starting safety is questionable 0:09:56.679 --> 0:10:01.240 to play. Miami's lost about five linebackers the last four weeks, 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.000 so that they're all they're all sorts of injured on 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.080 the on the defensive side of the ball for Miami, 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:10.840 So you know, it's really all about the cold. There's 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:12.920 not a lot of players that really stand out in 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:14.920 this game, even though there are huge names, but guys 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:19.640 I'm fading or like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcey. The guy 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:21.920 I like most in this game is a DFS dark Pros. 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:24.679 Noah Gray, who's a He'll probably come coming close to 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.400 bare minimum. The Dolphins are one of eight teams to 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:29.760 yield at least one hundred and twenty five targets to 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:32.880 tight ends, one of five teams to allow at least 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:37.199 nine hundred yards and seven touchdowns to the position. And 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.679 so those are great numbers obviously for posing tight ends. 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:42.640 And we've seen Gray get involved. And I gotta give 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:46.120 credit to Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros for this da 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:50.040 he went in a little deeper. Since Week thirteen, Miami 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:53.960 has utilized Cover three or Cover six. Those are zone coverages. 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:57.200 You know the takeaway basically the deep play on more 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.680 than fifty percent of their defensive snaps. And this week twelve, 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:05.280 against these coverages, Noah Gray has a thirty percent targets 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:08.760 per route run that's third on the team and nearly 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:12.559 three yards per route run when facing Cover three or 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:14.600 Cover six. And those are great numbers. And I don't 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.720 know Travis Kelce is taking a step back. So Noah 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:20.720 Gray a great a dart throw there. When I talk 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:23.040 about fading guys, I think Tyreek kill is the number 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:25.600 one fade in a revenge game. So this is a 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.240 guy you know you're not gonna want to use him 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.040 in your one and done pools, even though you usually 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.040 win that team like the Dolphins, you don't expect to win. 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:34.079 You're like, oh, I want to use one of the 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.280 big name players. This is my only chance to use them, 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:38.640 you know what I mean? A one and done game 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.840 where you don't use a player once in the playoffs. Ye, 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:45.560 he'll all sorts of banged up with the ankle injury. 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.800 The chief secondary, led by Lagerius sneed maybe the best 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.800 corner in the game, at least one of the best. 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:52.800 They're going to focus on him, and Kansas City as 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.960 a whole deploys a lot of two high safety zone looks, 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.080 which actually caters more to Jalen Waddle, So I have 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.320 to pick a receiver in this game, it's Waddle against 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:04.160 two high safety zone. Wattle actually leads Hill in targets 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:06.080 per route run, so he has more targets per oute 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:09.080 run in his coverage and yards per route run four 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.120 and a half, which is a lot for Waddle to 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:16.000 just three from Hill. So the Chiefs are not going 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:17.880 to want Tyreek Hill to go off in this game. 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:19.520 So I think they're going to do everything in their 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:22.520 power to take away, you know, the deeplay threat from Hill, 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:24.319 So I like Wattle more in this game. So I'm 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:25.280 totally out on Hill. 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:27.320 So you know, I'm just out of that game in 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:27.880 a nutshell. 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.280 Hopefully no one gets frost play. 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:33.320 Like I'm just out on the passing games. I just 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.400 think there's a point at which, if it's cold enough, 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.120 the air just comes out of the ball, and I 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.720 would be more inclined to try to orient maybe towards 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:43.920 the running backs in this one. But that's that's just me, 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:47.160 and I think we're at that stage where it's just 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:49.560 it's just gonna might be one of those games where 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.640 nothing's really moving. So yeah, we'll see, we'll see. I 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:54.480 think you raised some really valid points about the Miami 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:58.160 defense being very suspect and very banged up, and you know, 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.960 but I'm doneculating that this is the game that Kansas 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:05.120 City turns it around, because we've been doing that for 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:06.320 two months. 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.679 I saw, you know, that Miami's got historically bad record 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.640 in cold weather games, and I saw how they Mike 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.520 McDaniel said, they got the facility, they can get it 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.839 down to fifty with the air conditioning. 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:17.800 That's it. 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:22.280 They've been practicing. We like you better be doing that 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:26.480 like basically naked, like you know, ice packs. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:27.400 Me. 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.760 I don't know, it's gonna be an ugly game. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.160 That is gonna be an ugly game. Watch remember Miami 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.840 you traveled to was it Buffalo last year? Skyler Thompson 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.560 almost won that game in cold weather. Let's let's go 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.600 to Pittsburgh Buffalo the next one up. This is also 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:42.400 one of yours, and this is also a weather game. 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:42.840 Uh. 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:46.160 It sounds like over the totality of the weekend, there's 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:47.960 going to be quite a bit of snow. It's unclear 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.199 as to how much snow Brian is actually going to 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:54.040 fall during game. You know, Buffalo knows all about from 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:57.000 snow removal. You know, they all all the lake effects 0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:00.560 snow that they've they've gotten since the city was uh, 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.600 you know founded. So I don't believe the rumors that 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:06.760 they might move the game or anything like that. And 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:10.200 I'm not and I'm not fully believing the stories that 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.120 it's going to be like a foot of snow during 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:13.240 the game or anything like that. 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:16.280 No, and then supposedly the main snow is going to 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:18.640 be on Saturday or you know overnight, so they love 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:20.280 time to clear the field and all that. So I'm 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.240 not too worried about that. It's uh, it's Buffalo. It's nothing, 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.680 nothing new, and this is definitely not one of the 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:31.040 sexier games on a Super wild Card weekend. From an 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.960 offensive standpoint, Buffalo nine and a half point favorites over 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:39.240 under a thirty five and that's basically all on the 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:43.560 Buffalo side. Right. TJ. Watt been ruled out for Pittsburgh. 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:45.480 That is huge. I mean for Pittsburgh to have a 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.160 chance in this game, their defense has a step up. 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.800 Big TJ. Watt one of the best pass rushers in 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.720 the NFL. So that boats well for Buffalo. Gabe Davis, 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.240 I'm likely to play that might be. 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.320 They've ruled them out. 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:01.400 Okay, yeah, I wasn't expecting to go. So he's out. Uh, 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.560 so you can we can throw that. We can mitigate 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.160 all roller coaster ride risk, whether you're gonna get zero 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:10.040 points or thirty from from Gabe Davis. So Khalil Shakir 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.560 a guy who will be popular for sure. He's stepped 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:17.200 up after since if this has been down the last 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:21.000 game or two. Really, you know, from the Bill side, 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.880 I'm worried about the Bills from the perspective of best 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.560 ball contest, where you know there's an advancement after each round, 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:32.600 where the Bills are probably gonna win this game, but 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:34.960 they're not gonna score a lot of points. One would 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.600 think so a lot of best ball teams are probably 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:39.680 gonna die by that are heavily invested in the Bills 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:41.920 even though they're gonna advance to the next round most likely, 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:45.520 but not gonna score a lot of points. So from 0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:47.960 a from a DFS perspective, I'm gonna go with a 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.840 Steeler as my my dark phone. It's Jalen Warren who 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:54.440 is has reverted back to the to the backup role 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:57.400 behind Najie Harris, even though it's always been a fifty 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.240 to fifty split. Essentially, the Bills were one of six 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.560 teams to allow at least eighty five catches in seven 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:07.640 hundred yards to opposing running backs. Buffalo also deploys two 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.040 high safety coverage at the third highest clip in the league, 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.320 and Mason Rudolph has targeted his running backs over forty 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:17.280 percent of the time against too high and Jalen Warren 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.160 is the still the preferred pass catching running back and 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.600 Rudolph gonna be under a lot of durest. Most likely. 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:25.920 I see him checking down to Warren a lot in 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:29.840 this game, and the condition is not being great for passing. 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.240 Most likely, I to see Warren as a safety blanket, 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:35.120 and he's gonna be the cheapest running back on the 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:37.680 slate that gets significant run for you, and he's gonna 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.280 come in at a very low ownership percentage. So he's 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.120 my contrariant dart throat in DFS. Really, the fade is 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.320 just almost anyone else in this game, even from the 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.600 Buffalo side. They're gonna need to score ten points and 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.560 that's like I mean, they'll they'll put the pedal to 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:54.080 the middle a little more than that, But this is 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.160 not a fun game. From an offensive perspective. 0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:58.480 James Cook could get a lot of work. They could 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.080 see them getting ahead and then just running Cook a 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.840 bunch and and holding there. And it's hard to find 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:05.639 your spots with Cook, right, you got to really be 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.840 thoughtful about it. I think this could be one of them. 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.360 Let's go to the next game that that's up as 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:14.640 we transition to the Sunday late afternoon game, that's Green 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.560 Bay at Dallas for Jordan love some night. I think 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.760 there's some sneaky opportunity here. First of all, by the way, 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:24.920 is over under of rushing yards is like nine. He's 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:27.720 gonna run from Micah Parsons for nine on the first 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.920 drive potentially, So there's there's some opportunity for betters that way. 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:35.240 The uh, I want to talk about some recent passing 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.879 stats against Dallas, and I want to I'm gonna go 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:40.640 all the way back to week twelve, so we're gonna 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:42.560 have a fairly long sample size here. But I'm gonna 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:46.800 throw out two games. First, the Cowboys got blown out 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.600 by Buffalo and they barely passed. I think Josh Allen 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:52.360 threw like fourteen passes in the game, So I'm gonna 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:56.520 throw that game out. I'm throwing out Sam Howell's woeful 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:58.760 start last Sunday in a meeting, you know, in a 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.320 meaningless game which everybody that they were gonna get uh, 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.159 you know, everybody's gonna get fired howl those you know, 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:08.800 was not necessarily the intended starter. They've been starting Jacoby 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.320 him over Jacoby Brissetts. They had to blah blah blah. 0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:14.080 So I'm throwing those out. But other than that, all 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.080 the other quarterbacks are averaging two hundred and eighty yards 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:19.560 against Dallas and two eighties a pretty darn good day. 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.080 So I feel like Jordan Love's got that in them. 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:25.800 It's probably Dallas is gonna score points in this game. 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:27.720 Is when we talking about that in a minute. I 0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:31.600 think Green Bay answers with plenty of passing in particular, 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:35.199 and the Dallas safeties are bad. Donovan Wilson and jay 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:38.880 Ron Curse have Pro Football focused coverage grades as safety 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.560 thirty three and safety one hundred and one. I didn't 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.680 think there were one hundred and one safeties in the NFL. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:50.639 Love's been obviously way better lately, and I I really 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:53.160 seven of his last nine games he's had over two 0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:55.280 hundred and eighty six yards. I think Jordan Love is 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:57.160 gonna flirt with the three hundred yard mark in this one. 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:00.920 I really like him here and that like receivers. 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:04.119 Too, sorry to cut you off there, it's unlikely to happen, 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.640 but he still will not have his entire offense healthy 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:08.920 for one game. 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:13.040 Yeah, not all the starting receivers. Yeah, no, I mean nobody. 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:14.800 You know, there are lots of cases. If you're like 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:17.879 the totality of the offense. You don't have those. That's 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.919 that's many many teams that don't have older starters. But 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:23.399 he hasn't even had all of his starting receivers on 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:25.280 the field for one game. 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:31.840 And barely He's never had Aaron Jones and aj week one. 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.919 Then it's been crazier for Green May. But I'm excited 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:37.720 for this game too. It should be the over unders 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.600 over fifty points, so it should be a pretty entertaining one. 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:42.840 Let's talk about Dak Prescott for a minute. I think 0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.879 sitting on a very big game. Here's the passers the 0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:50.240 Packers have faced for the last five weeks. Justin fields 0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:53.840 a half of Jaron Hall and a half of Nick Mullins, 0:19:53.880 --> 0:20:02.080 Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito comes Dak Prescott and 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:06.640 Cede Lamb and Brandon Cooks. You know, and Mayfield and Young, 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:09.040 by the way, went off on the Packers. They combined 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.640 for seven hundred yards and six touchdowns. Brian, I think 0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:15.040 this is a big game coming for Dak Prescott. Green 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:16.680 Bay has got the worst set of cornerbacks in the 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:20.520 playoffs and maybe the whole league. Keishawn Nixon is basically 0:20:20.640 --> 0:20:23.920