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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree A five dollars? This is a rattle upon

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Speaker 1: happy tackleship. One man, you're saying.

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Speaker 2: That humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, misspeak, prone, the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, babe.

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Speaker 2: Let's and welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. I am

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Speaker 2: your host, Chris Raybon, joined by my guy Sean Kerner,

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Speaker 2: and today we're gonna talk all about week four props.

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Speaker 2: The podcast is presented by Prize Picks Sean.

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Speaker 1: How are you doing? Real good? So? I think week

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Speaker 1: one I went five and oh right, and then week

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Speaker 1: two I went one and four. Last week I think

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Speaker 1: I went three and two or maybe four and two

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Speaker 1: because I think I also said I wanted justin fields

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Speaker 1: under forty four, not rushing yards. But yep, I think

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Speaker 1: we're in the right direction here. So looking forward to

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Speaker 1: week four, how about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we both went four and one on

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Speaker 2: the official five. Oh I like count, but I mean

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Speaker 2: that was just me doing my math in my head

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Speaker 2: as I all I know is I got the.

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Speaker 1: Justin fields one completely wrong. So maybe I gave myself

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Speaker 1: two losses for that.

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Speaker 2: It deserves about five. That was me, Like, I just

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Speaker 2: felt like I had that whole game caped wrong. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: let's hope, let's hope that doesn't happen again. Maybe maybe

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Speaker 2: just not bet on rookie quarterbacks anytime soon again. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it just seems disastrous in all these different ways. So

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Speaker 2: it's not just an urban Meyer thing. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it's the best thing I can say about urban Meyer.

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Speaker 2: But to get right in, We're going to do one

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Speaker 2: quarterback prop, two running back props, and two receiving props.

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Speaker 2: The lines are provided by Prize Picks. Sean starts off,

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Speaker 2: So I was gonna go with Matt Ryan under two

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Speaker 2: seventy three have passing yards here. I love that prop.

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Speaker 1: And then I realized, wait, Tom Brady is playing at

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Speaker 1: New England this week. I already said that I would

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Speaker 1: bet the over no matter what. It is. Now down

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Speaker 1: to three fourteen and a half. So I'm going over

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Speaker 1: three hundred and fourteen a half passing yards for Tom Brady.

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Speaker 1: This is just one of those situations. I said. Kobe's

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Speaker 1: final game justin Jefferson Week seventeen, last year when he

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Speaker 1: needed one hundred and eleven receiving yards to break the

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Speaker 1: rookie record. There's a certain preps where just I'm going

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Speaker 1: to bet the over no matter what. It sounds like

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Speaker 1: a donkey thing, but when it comes to things like this,

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Speaker 1: and a guy like Tom Brady, I think he really

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Speaker 1: wants to go off here at New England on senate football.

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Speaker 1: He's also sixty eight yards away from passing up Drew

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Speaker 1: Brees all time in passing yards, So you know, I

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Speaker 1: think realistically I would project this closer to three point fifty,

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Speaker 1: So I'd probably pick this up to like three thirty

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Speaker 1: five and a half. We'll see how high this goes,

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Speaker 1: but I think three fourteen is way too low.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is my favorite, I think pod of

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Speaker 2: the week because I have already done like two other

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Speaker 2: pods with you. I've also done our betting pod on

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Speaker 2: the Action Network feed with Stucky, and so by the

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Speaker 2: time I come here, I have like a lot more,

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Speaker 2: you know, very strong takes on different things. And this

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Speaker 2: Patriots Bucks game has been still the one game that

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Speaker 2: I struggle to kind of handicap. And it's funny though,

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Speaker 2: because earlier in the week I talked to you first,

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Speaker 2: and then you were like, this is just a Tom

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Speaker 2: Brady smash spot. He's gonna he's gonna go crazy against

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Speaker 2: his former team. Then I get on with Stucky and

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Speaker 2: we do the Action Network NFL pod and he picks

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Speaker 2: the Patriots as his money line underdog for Week four,

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Speaker 2: and he's like, Belichick is gonna contain Brady. He's gonna

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Speaker 2: know exactly how to defendive. So now I'm back at

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Speaker 2: square one with this game, which is I still have

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Speaker 2: no like strong lean either way. But it's just interesting

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Speaker 2: to me that there there seems to be a lot

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Speaker 2: of disagreement in the market because, like you said, I

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Speaker 2: thought it, oh, I thought three twenty five was ridiculously

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Speaker 2: high for it to open. Dennet dropped ten yards, and

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Speaker 2: now you're taking the over here. So I mean, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, like because like my I guess my concern

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Speaker 2: is that I think the Bucks are just a better

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Speaker 2: team and they're I don't agree with Stucky that they're

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Speaker 2: going to win the game necessarily, but I do worry

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Speaker 2: about the game script because of that. But I guess

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Speaker 2: Brady he's not scrambling, so he could still throw for

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Speaker 2: three thirty in like a positive games group.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, we talked earlierler week we weren't

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Speaker 1: sure if Antonio Brown was going to be able to

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Speaker 1: return from the COVID list.

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Speaker 2: He is.

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Speaker 1: So when you have Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown,

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Speaker 1: sounds like Gronk's going to play another revenge game spot

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Speaker 1: for him too. I just don't know how Belltrick's gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to stop him. So this is, you know,

95
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Speaker 1: it's a tougher matchup for Brady. I'm not denying that,

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Speaker 1: but just there's certain situations like this where I think

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Speaker 1: the psychology of just like an athlete of Brady's caliber,

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Speaker 1: he wants to prove a point this game. I think

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Speaker 1: obviously he wants to win this game, but you know,

100
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Speaker 1: does he want to come out with two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty passing yards and a close wind? No. I think

102
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Speaker 1: a guy like Brady wants to just destroy the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: And I've been saying he's going to have like or

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Speaker 1: I didn't say he was going to have, but I

105
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Speaker 1: just have deja vu about twoy thirteen Peyton Manning. You know,

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Speaker 1: this is the second year in this system he was

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Speaker 1: playing with a torn eight mcl for most of the

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Speaker 1: last year or something like just this guy's limit for

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Speaker 1: Brady this year, We've already seen that happen. So I

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Speaker 1: don't know why he's going to all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: slow down heading back to Foxborough. I just think this

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Speaker 1: is I'm not overthinking. This is what I'm getting at,

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Speaker 1: and I'm just taking the over here.

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Speaker 2: But how many yards is the Belichick snub of an

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Speaker 2: in person meeting to discuss Tom Brady's leaving the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: Because I don't know if you read the article on ESPN,

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Speaker 2: but there's a book coming out and you know, one

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Speaker 2: of the a lot of inside information about the Patriots

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Speaker 2: and Brady and Belichick, and one of the things that

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Speaker 2: Brady wanted to kind of say goodbye to Bill in person,

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Speaker 2: and Bill refused. It was like he's too busy and

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Speaker 2: like they should do it on the phone. So how

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Speaker 2: many do you think that's where?

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying, Probably one hundred. You don't We're

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Speaker 1: not talking We're not talking about a normal just a

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Speaker 1: normal athlete. Already we get motivated. We're talking about the

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Speaker 1: greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady. Like you don't

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Speaker 1: think that he would love to throw for five hundred

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Speaker 1: yards here out of your mind. If you don't think

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Speaker 1: that so can't be high enough for me to be

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Speaker 1: interested in the under. It just isn't. Just like Kobe

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Speaker 1: Bryant's points prop for that final game was like forty

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Speaker 1: two and a half, I just max bet the over

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Speaker 1: on that wherever I could, justin Jefferson last year, I'm

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Speaker 1: putting it in that category of just like it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter what the line is, like any juice, any juice,

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Speaker 1: any juice, any juice, any number. Okay, like you said,

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Speaker 1: those other markets where you can bet over four hundred

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Speaker 1: yards or things like that, just I want it all

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Speaker 1: right now, Okay, Okay, it's just interesting.

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Speaker 2: I really didn't have a take on this game that's strong,

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Speaker 2: So it's just fascinating for me to hear these different ones.

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Speaker 2: And you know, the more I think about it, definitely

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Speaker 2: wants to have a good game. I'm sure even Gronk does.

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Speaker 2: So you're going Tom Brady over three hundred and fourteen

146
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Speaker 2: and a half passing yards for your quarterback prop. I

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Speaker 2: am going Kyra Murray last week I went over. This week,

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Speaker 2: I'm going under on his rushing yards and the line

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Speaker 2: is thirty seven and a half at Prize Picks.

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Speaker 1: First of all, forget the matchup.

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Speaker 2: This season, he's just not running as much, and we've

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Speaker 2: kind of talked about it here and there.

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Speaker 1: When do we expect him to run more? Maybe he's not.

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Speaker 1: So he has five.

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Speaker 2: Carries for twenty yards in week one, five for thirty

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Speaker 2: one in week two, seven for nineteen in week three,

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Speaker 2: So he hasn't gone over this prop yet this season.

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Speaker 2: But the real reason I like it is not only

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Speaker 2: that it's the matchup. Remember what the Rams do. They

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Speaker 2: even though Staley's now with the Chargers, they run that

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Speaker 2: Brandon Staley type defense. They're gonna play a lot of

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Speaker 2: zone coverage, which means you're having your eyes on the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: And they play a lot of quarters coverage, which means

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Speaker 2: you have the two safeties deep and the two corners

165
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Speaker 2: dropping deep, so you're you're protecting. You always got guys

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Speaker 2: kind of looking at the quarterback and kind of keeping

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Speaker 2: him in check, and you play a lot of Cover

168
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Speaker 2: two as well. So I don't see Murray going over

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Speaker 2: this number because he hasn't against the Rams yet. Twenty

170
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Speaker 2: eight yards, zero yards, fifteen yards, three yards, those are

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Speaker 2: his four games against the Rams in his career. And

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Speaker 2: remember trum McVay has had a ton of success against

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Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals haven't won yet, and one of

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Speaker 2: the things that they've done is contain this run game.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I think they play more Cover two

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Speaker 2: actually in this spot, you know, to keep some of

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Speaker 2: the you know, to keep some of the the dbats

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Speaker 2: even closer to the line of scrimmage.

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Speaker 1: But that's their scheme. It's cover two.

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Speaker 2: It's covered four quarters zone and it's just not easy

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Speaker 2: to run against that as it is against the man

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Speaker 2: coverage team, where you know the dbs are going to

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Speaker 2: turn around. So I think they're gonna keep Kyer in

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Speaker 2: the pocket and he's gonna beat him a couple of times,

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Speaker 2: probably from the pocket. Last last week, I had over

186
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Speaker 2: on his passing yards. This week going under on his

187
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Speaker 2: rushing yards thirty seven and a half.

188
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, I'm projecting him at thirty rushing yards,

189
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Speaker 1: so I'd probably set this prop closer like twenty eight

190
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Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, So it seems like there's some

191
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Speaker 1: value here. You've always done great work on scrambling rates

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Speaker 1: things like that, so I trust you here. Are you

193
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Speaker 1: worried at all that Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz and Tom

194
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Speaker 1: Brady went over the rushing prop against the Rams. No,

195
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Speaker 1: because that's how the Rams may defense. They want, Yeah,

196
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Speaker 1: those guys, they want those guys to go.

197
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Speaker 2: That's when that's when they're going to play their quarters

198
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Speaker 2: coverage and and go straight up, you know, take the

199
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Speaker 2: receivers away.

200
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Speaker 1: This one.

201
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Speaker 2: I expect them to show some you know, they'll still

202
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,920
Speaker 2: play their quarters on you know, third down, but it's

203
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Speaker 2: just those two deep safeties.

204
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Speaker 1: Over the top.

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Speaker 2: But that coverage in general, because you're playing zone, you

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Speaker 2: have guys looking at the quarterback. So they could be

207
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Speaker 2: a Cover three team and it would still be It's

208
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Speaker 2: like if they're just playing a ton of zone, you know,

209
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Speaker 2: regardless of where the safeties are, it's going to be tough.

210
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Speaker 2: But in this scenario, there happen to be a Cover two,

211
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Speaker 2: Cover four team. I think it's been working against against

212
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Speaker 2: kyro So White.

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Speaker 1: And he hasn't got over even period. Yeah, and he's

214
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Speaker 1: a high line. Yeah, that's what I was gonna say.

215
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:05,400
Speaker 1: He hasn't gone over. And you know he's had some

216
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Speaker 1: two amazing scrambling plays where he ended up throwing to

217
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Speaker 1: Rondelle Moore, so yeah, he's more content, you know, just

218
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Speaker 1: throwing it as opposed to taking it run. So yeah,

219
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Speaker 1: I can get behind this as well. Again, projecting at

220
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Speaker 1: thirty so I'm in line with you here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have it at thirty two, so yeah, I

222
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Speaker 2: would take it down about twenty eight and a half.

223
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Speaker 2: I love the prop everywhere. It's one of my favorite

224
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Speaker 2: the week. All right, let's go to running backs. Who's

225
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:28,840
Speaker 2: your first running back prop?

226
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Speaker 1: Four? Week four? I'm going with Aaron Jones over sixty

227
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,079
Speaker 1: five and a half rushing yards. I think the Steelers

228
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,200
Speaker 1: they desperately need TJ. Watt to return this week. Their

229
00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,280
Speaker 1: defense just hasn't looked as dominant this year. And you

230
00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,480
Speaker 1: know so I'm not worried about this matchup when it

231
00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,480
Speaker 1: comes to Aaron Jones. He's typically matchup proof. We just

232
00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,959
Speaker 1: need him to get carries and he'll typically break a

233
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,079
Speaker 1: couple of big runs. So I think this line's a

234
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,200
Speaker 1: little bit too low considering, you know, the Packers are

235
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Speaker 1: home favorites by about a touchdown. Now, this should be

236
00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,400
Speaker 1: a run heavy game. Script He's seen a pretty healthy

237
00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,120
Speaker 1: carry share the past couple of games. It's a seventy

238
00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 1: percent carry share among running backs. You know, I threw

239
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,080
Speaker 1: away the Week one game, the blowout against the Saints.

240
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,719
Speaker 1: We can't really include that in the sample, so I think,

241
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Speaker 1: you know, I'm projecting him for around sixteen seventeen carries here,

242
00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,280
Speaker 1: which a running back the caliber of Aaron Jones that's

243
00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:21,719
Speaker 1: probably worth a prop. Closer to like seventy five and

244
00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,000
Speaker 1: a half yards is where I would set this, So

245
00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:25,880
Speaker 1: I think we're getting about ten yards of value here.

246
00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,559
Speaker 2: I actually this is one where we actually are on

247
00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,839
Speaker 2: opposite side. I have him right around sixty yards, So

248
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,479
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit under here. I am just absolutely

249
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:40,280
Speaker 2: scared of every packer situation. Yeah, because I won't get

250
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,240
Speaker 2: into it because it's not a betting podcast, but Mike

251
00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,640
Speaker 2: tom win as an underdog, oh right, yeah, coming off

252
00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 2: a loss, the numbers are ridiculous over like, and he's

253
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,000
Speaker 2: been in the league, now what it's like over ten

254
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,000
Speaker 2: over a decade. They're just ridiculous. So I'm very scared

255
00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,120
Speaker 2: of a letdown spot. So I have him projected a

256
00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,360
Speaker 2: little bit conservatively. I have him at fifteen carries for

257
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Speaker 2: sixty yards, which you know, he's still my running back.

258
00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,040
Speaker 2: Eight in fantasy. So it's not like there's not a

259
00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,199
Speaker 2: scenario where I see him going over this. But I'm

260
00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:06,760
Speaker 2: a little scared of the Packers this week. It's just,

261
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,240
Speaker 2: you know, it's one of those spots for me where

262
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:10,360
Speaker 2: I've seen this movie too many times.

263
00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,160
Speaker 1: I agree, you don't want to bet against Tullman as

264
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,760
Speaker 1: an underdog, but like you typically don't want to bet

265
00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,960
Speaker 1: against Aaron Jones either, so we can kind of both

266
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,839
Speaker 1: be right in the situation. But like I said, just

267
00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,079
Speaker 1: based on my model, I am seeing him get you know,

268
00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,280
Speaker 1: sixteen to seventeen carries, So this prop just seems a

269
00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:30,319
Speaker 1: little bit too low.

270
00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:35,760
Speaker 2: All right for me, I'm going with Sequon Barkley under

271
00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,280
Speaker 2: sixty and a half rushing yards. New Orleans has allowed

272
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty five yards on fifty seven carries

273
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Speaker 2: to running backs. That is two point five yards per carry.

274
00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,240
Speaker 2: If you look back at their rushing defense DVOA over

275
00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,480
Speaker 2: the last couple of years, always near the top of

276
00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,680
Speaker 2: the league, and it's just gonna be tough for Sakuon.

277
00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,439
Speaker 2: He's healthy now, he's playing a ton of snatch and

278
00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,240
Speaker 2: it still hasn't look great. So the Saints they're not

279
00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,000
Speaker 2: even giving up sixty yards per game total to all

280
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,800
Speaker 2: running backs. So even if Saquon were to play like

281
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 2: one hundred percent of snaps Giants offense, Brettison, another lineman

282
00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:10,680
Speaker 2: went down, They're just.

283
00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,160
Speaker 1: Losing linemen left and right. Like this line is not

284
00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:14,920
Speaker 1: very good.

285
00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,600
Speaker 2: So another game where I'm kind of scared to totally bet,

286
00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,920
Speaker 2: Like I don't want to bet against the Giants here,

287
00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,559
Speaker 2: but I'm more comfortable doing it because I do think

288
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:25,160
Speaker 2: this is kind of a track game for the Saints.

289
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,679
Speaker 2: But Barkley week one, obviously, you know, just ten for

290
00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,360
Speaker 2: twenty six. But I'll throw that out. You know, he

291
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,559
Speaker 2: played forty eight percent of snaps, but eighty four percent

292
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,800
Speaker 2: of snaps in Week two fifty seven yards, eighty six

293
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,400
Speaker 2: percent of the snaps in Week three fifty one yards.

294
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:39,959
Speaker 1: Now we're giving him sixty.

295
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,960
Speaker 2: And a half against a defense averaging two point five.

296
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,199
Speaker 1: This is a smash prop under take one. Yeah, I

297
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,800
Speaker 1: mean I'm not giving him sixteen and alf I'm closer

298
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,120
Speaker 1: to fifty five. And yeah, you made a lot of

299
00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,959
Speaker 1: good points. I was very bullsh on him last week.

300
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 1: He ended up being my RB five, especially after they

301
00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,040
Speaker 1: declared DeVante Booker inactive. For me, that was a sign

302
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:02,840
Speaker 1: that you know, he's close one hundred percent he can

303
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 1: handle the full workload. So this week I'll be a

304
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,480
Speaker 1: true to see if they make book or active and

305
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,160
Speaker 1: maybe start to limit his workload a little bit because

306
00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,719
Speaker 1: Barkley was limited in practice so far this week, so

307
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:16,559
Speaker 1: you know they are going to have to manage his

308
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 1: reps a bit. And against the Saints, yeah, like you said,

309
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 1: this is a brutal matchup. So I mean, even if

310
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 1: he gets every snap here, I don't think he can

311
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 1: go over. So this is pretty easy under for me

312
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:27,240
Speaker 1: as well. Bake one.

313
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,840
Speaker 2: Barkley is limited in theory and in practice.

314
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, well putting that out there right, I mean, it

315
00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 1: would not surprise us if he breaks off an eighty

316
00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,440
Speaker 1: yard touchdown at some point, but maybe not against the Saints.

317
00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:41,480
Speaker 2: Who you got for your second running back prop?

318
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 1: Well, this one. I like this one to correlate with

319
00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,920
Speaker 1: my Tom Brady over infinity passing yard. Yeah, and that's

320
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,920
Speaker 1: Leonard Fournette under forty three and a half rushing yards.

321
00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 1: To no surprise to anybody, the Bucks have led the

322
00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,560
Speaker 1: league in early down pass rate this year, so I

323
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,800
Speaker 1: expect that to continue this this week. And you know

324
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 1: a guy like Fournette where he's technically in a running

325
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,840
Speaker 1: back committee with Ronald Jones, you know that that means

326
00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,800
Speaker 1: he has a little bit lower floor. And you know,

327
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,040
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones out touched him in terms of Kerri's last week,

328
00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,320
Speaker 1: and that's this is a situation that could be pretty fluid.

329
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,960
Speaker 1: So it's it's really hard to peg, but four Nett's

330
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 1: floor is much much lower. I always set this closer

331
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 1: to thirty five and a half, especially considering how much

332
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,800
Speaker 1: I think Brady's going to throw here, so I could

333
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,240
Speaker 1: see them, you know, working Fournette more in the passing game.

334
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 1: It's we're still unsure if Jioe Bernard is going to

335
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 1: be able to suit up, so they may want to

336
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 1: use Fournette more in the passing game and have Ronald

337
00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,080
Speaker 1: Jones eat and his Kerry share here. So I think

338
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,200
Speaker 1: this is a pretty easy under for me here under

339
00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:41,440
Speaker 1: forty three and a half rushing yards.

340
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,320
Speaker 2: Knowing Bruce Arians, he probably just like call up Keisha

341
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,600
Speaker 2: and Vaughn and not even still not use Ronald Jones,

342
00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,280
Speaker 2: but probably yeah, yeah, no, I mean this is high

343
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 2: for Fournette giving what we've seen out of the Busch

344
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 2: run game. This year, it's it's been pretty much non existent.

345
00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 2: I do expect New England to play two safeties. Do

346
00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:00,600
Speaker 2: you even kind of dare him to run the ball.

347
00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,800
Speaker 2: But like you said, there's three backs that are going

348
00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 2: to mix in and then Fournette still has to get

349
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,120
Speaker 2: you know, his ten eleven carries and be pretty efficient

350
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 2: most likely to hit this number.

351
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:11,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you on that one.

352
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,320
Speaker 2: For me, I'm going Zeke Elliott under sixty three and

353
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,520
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards and this is more of an

354
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,960
Speaker 2: efficiency play. We have seen Zeke's carry share come down,

355
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,800
Speaker 2: you know, even in positive gamescript games like you know,

356
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 2: the team's carries obviously went up, but like Tony Poward's

357
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 2: mixing it more and more. Poward got the goal line carry,

358
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 2: so you know, non quarterback rush attempts. Zeke had seventy

359
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 2: nine percent in week one, fifty two percent in week two,

360
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,760
Speaker 2: fifty three percent in week three. So he's averaging fourteen

361
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:41,640
Speaker 2: point seven carries on the year. It's about where I

362
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 2: have him projected, uh and I have him a good

363
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 2: ten yards or so short of this number for the median.

364
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 2: So and that's because not only is there some uncertainty

365
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 2: with you know the floor for his carries and snaps,

366
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,920
Speaker 2: you know, with Poward playing better and better. But the

367
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,520
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers get this, and I know it's been against

368
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 2: some weakapone, but in three games they have allowed only

369
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 2: ninety four rushing yards to running backs total on forty

370
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,000
Speaker 2: three carries. So I mean forty three for ninety four.

371
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,879
Speaker 2: This is a situation where Dallas may say, you know this,

372
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,320
Speaker 2: this this front is playing well, we need to throw it.

373
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,679
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm a little concerned about, like Zeke's

374
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 2: carry share because Panthers allowing two point two yards per

375
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,920
Speaker 2: carrier backs. You know, the Cowboys could have a positive

376
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 2: game script, but because it's a positive game script and

377
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,680
Speaker 2: they're throwing, by the time they get around a running

378
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 2: it could be more of the same with Zeke and Poward,

379
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 2: like kind of almost fifty to fifty, which is what we,

380
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:34,879
Speaker 2: for example, saw against the Eagles, even though you know

381
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 2: they had a lot of carries.

382
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:37,480
Speaker 1: So it worked out for Zeke in that game.

383
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 2: But against this front, I'm just beending on an efficiency

384
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 2: reduction and I'm selling on the carry share for Zeke here,

385
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:45,880
Speaker 2: So I'm going understand three and a half.

386
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 1: I love this because it sounds like you're disagreed, not disagree,

387
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 1: but we're on opposite sides for two rushing props. Considering

388
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 1: you like the under, all just probably avoid this prop altogether.

389
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,879
Speaker 1: But I'm projecting at sixty seven yards and similar to

390
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,360
Speaker 1: what I said last week, I just think the Cowboys

391
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 1: are going to be a little bit more run heavy

392
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 1: without Michael Gallup. And you know, Amari Cooper is banged

393
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 1: up last week. We'll see if he's one hundred percent here.

394
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 1: But I guess it depends on what you think about

395
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 1: the Cowboys or as Panthers here, but I do like

396
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 1: them to win this game. And yeah, the past couple

397
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,680
Speaker 1: the past couple of weeks when they've you know, they're

398
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 1: on a two game win streak, the second lowest early

399
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 1: down pass rate, which is kind of weird to see

400
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 1: with the Cowboys and even the Bengals there the two

401
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 1: least pass happy teams the past couple weeks. So I

402
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,640
Speaker 1: think this is another week where both Zeke and Collard

403
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,680
Speaker 1: are probably going to beat East Yr in fantasy. So

404
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 1: I'm not touching this one. But yeah, I take your

405
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 1: point for the under, but I'm just not gonna touch

406
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 1: this on.

407
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 2: If Alvin Kamarick goes eight for five, then Zeke is

408
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 2: going like eight for two. Like that's how I'm looking

409
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:55,200
Speaker 2: at this one.

410
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,159
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going I'm going under. But you know,

411
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 1: I get it. I think they'll they'll win the game.

412
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,200
Speaker 2: I do like them if I had a better side,

413
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,719
Speaker 2: but I just think I just think Kevin Moore has

414
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 2: been coordinating so and Dak is going so well. I

415
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,120
Speaker 2: mean he's been so accurate, probably the most accurate path

416
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:11,719
Speaker 2: in the league. Yeah, I just think they're gonna come

417
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,440
Speaker 2: out thrown in this one, and especially Carolina J C.

418
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: Horn Out, I think that's I think that's the way

419
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 2: he beat him.

420
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 1: So I'm betting on.

421
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,920
Speaker 2: Some regression here for ze All right, let's go to receivers.

422
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 2: Who you got for your first receiver prop for week

423
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:25,160
Speaker 2: number four?

424
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 1: I'm going with Calvin Ridley under eighty five and a

425
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 1: half receiving yards. And this is partly due to what

426
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 1: I said earlier. I do like the Matt Ryan under

427
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 1: two hundred and seventy three and a half passing yards.

428
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 1: You know this, this Falcons team is not the past

429
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 1: happy offense we're used to sing there. They're more middle

430
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 1: of the pack. This year, and I think that that

431
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 1: could be due to Julio Jones not being on the

432
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: team anymore. You know, they're they're a little bit more

433
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 1: run heavy. They've been using Cordall Parrison more so. Matt

434
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: Ryan has a four point six a DOP this year

435
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,000
Speaker 1: that does not jive well with a player like Calvi Ridley.

436
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 1: So despite seeing six point seven receptions a game, he

437
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 1: has yet to clear sixty five yards. So something's got

438
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 1: to give here, and I don't think either scenario really

439
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 1: goes well with this prop. So I'm projecting him culture

440
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 1: to seventy five and a half here. I'm one of

441
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 1: the biggest Calvin Ridley fans in the world, Like, I

442
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: think he's an elite wide receiver, but just the scheme

443
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: under Arthur Smith, with the way Matt Ryan's playing, it's

444
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 1: just not working for him when it comes to the yardagees.

445
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna keep betting this under until he proves otherwise. Yeah,

446
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 1: I agree with you.

447
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 2: I have him six point three for seventy seven so

448
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 2: and that's the at mean projection, so his medium would

449
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 2: be even a couple of yards lower than that, you know,

450
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 2: if you kind of work it out. But one thing

451
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,679
Speaker 2: I love about this Ridley prop, Well, there's a few

452
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 2: things I like about it. Number One, it's just short

453
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 2: of the projection. Number two, Ryan isn't throwing deep, but Washington,

454
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: even with the defense struggling.

455
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 1: They still have forty pressures.

456
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 2: There's still top three in pressures and that usually eventually

457
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 2: turns into sacks. But also what is pressure due to

458
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 2: a quarterback like Matt Ryan who's already throwing it under

459
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 2: five yards?

460
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 1: You know, per attack.

461
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: Like that just makes it that just speeds him up

462
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 2: and makes it less likely that Ridley's going to catch

463
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 2: a big downfield? Is is this a big seat Cordill

464
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: Patterson game? Is that what you're saying, John? They are

465
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: all big Cordell Patterson game? That is true and is

466
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 2: the signature of Arthur Smith. Thus far is Cordero Patterson?

467
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 1: It is looking that way, Like, Yeah, this football team

468
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 1: defensive line up against this shaky uh talkins offensive line

469
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: could be a disaster. Either way. It's not good news

470
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: for Calverdly.

471
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of those props though, where like

472
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 2: he could catch like ten balls for like like because

473
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 2: of Matt Ryan and the a DI and you know

474
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: what I mean, Like so hopefully.

475
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 1: He doesn't catch ten balls for the sake of this prop.

476
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: But I yeah, I agree. Hey, hey he can go

477
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 1: join Dalton Schultz and taking our money.

478
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,719
Speaker 3: Oh my god, don't bring up I bring like right now,

479
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 3: right yeah, let's let's go right to that, you know,

480
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 3: segue Dawn Scholtz under thirty eight and a half receiving

481
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 3: yards at prize pick is gonna be my first receiving prop.

482
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: I love this prop.

483
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: It was twenty eight and a half on Monday Night Football.

484
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: We both bet the under.

485
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: We got drilled.

486
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: He went for eighty yards two touchdowns.

487
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: And looking back on it, you know, there were some

488
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: things that I should.

489
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 2: Have been more aware of, you know, kind of a

490
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 2: little more hesitant about another one of those defenses. And

491
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 2: again we have to really watch out for these kind

492
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 2: of these Jonathan gannon Staley defenses. That was the Eagles,

493
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 2: same thing, a lot of two deep, split safeties, cover two,

494
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 2: cover four zone. The Panthers, well, they're gonna do it

495
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 2: a little more of everything. They're not locked into that

496
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 2: straight up two deep show. And you get you know,

497
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 2: even if they were, I mean, they the Cowboys did

498
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: play like a similar defense to that, you know, in

499
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 2: week two when they played the Chargers with Brandon Staley

500
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: himself and Chelton we had four catches for eighteen yards.

501
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: So it's not as if, you know, it's.

502
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 2: Automatic, like even if he does play one of those defenses.

503
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: But Carolina, they're gonna play a lot of different things,

504
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 2: and so for this number to go up ten yards,

505
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 2: I think it's nuts Carolina, just for some perspective, and

506
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: again you got to take an account strength of opponent,

507
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: but for some perspective, Carolina is allowing thirty four point

508
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 2: three yards per game total to tight ends, eighth fewest

509
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: in the week total. Now, Dalt Schultz is still splitting

510
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 2: snaps exactly equally with Lake Jarwin, so it's pretty much

511
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 2: a fifty to fifty split with those two guys. So

512
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 2: there's a lot of outs for this one. You know,

513
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: the A dot did climb a little bit last week,

514
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: but overall, Schultz is still a five point nine average

515
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 2: up to target tight end this season, even with some

516
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: downfield targets last week in that eighty yard eruption. So

517
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 2: there are a lot of outs for you to hit

518
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 2: this prop. You know, he could catch five six balls

519
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 2: and still go under because of the low a dot.

520
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: The defense could be paying more attention to him after

521
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 2: he erupted last week and had you know, more production

522
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 2: than like Ceedee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Or he could

523
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 2: just not be a bigger part of the game plan

524
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 2: against the defense that's gonna be a little different from

525
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: the ones they've been facing the last couple of weeks

526
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 2: when he's picked up. You know, was it four catches

527
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 2: two weeks ago, six catches last week? So a lot

528
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: of ways to go under this one. Sell high on

529
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 2: Dalton Schultz with the ten yard bump going under thirty

530
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 2: eight and a half for Schultz.

531
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on here. I'm going to take

532
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 1: a break from taking Dalton Schultz props for now, but

533
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement. And this is one of those things

534
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: where maybe I was a week early and he ends

535
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: up catching zero balls this week. But one of my

536
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: favorite things, or it's not one of my favorite things

537
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: because I lose a prop, But when I do lose

538
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: a primetime prop and glorious fashion like the Dalton Schultz one,

539
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 1: when people on Twitter tell me, hey, I think you

540
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: got this one pretty wrong. Yeah, no shit, And you

541
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 1: know I'm my biggest critic, so with you, Like when

542
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: we lose a bet like this, we try to value

543
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: what went wrong we can do going forward. So I

544
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 1: always use a losing bet like this as a teachable moment.

545
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, maybe I overlook the defense a bit,

546
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 1: and especially Mariti Cooper playing less than hundred percent. Maybe

547
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: I overlooked him being sort of a decoy, and I

548
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 1: think that's what happened here. And yeah, there's various things,

549
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: so it would not surprise me if Dalton Ships has

550
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 1: another good game. But thirty eight and a half is

551
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 1: a bit too high here. I'm projecting it right in

552
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: the twenty eight and a half range where it was

553
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: last week. So hopefully this situation where I was just

554
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: a week ahead, and you'll profit off this, but I

555
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: will I will be abstaining from any Dalton Cholt props

556
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: in the meantime.

557
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would take this down to a

558
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: thirty two and a half like that's yeah, I have

559
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: this pretty under So yeah, all right, who is your

560
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 2: second receiving prop for this week?

561
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: So this one stood out to me, but it's DeVante

562
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: Parker under forty seven and a half receiving yards. This

563
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: feels a bit high with Wolf Fuller back in the mix.

564
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: I know he missed practice earlier in the week, but

565
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: he had a full practice yesterday I think it was

566
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 1: or today, so he's he's back on track to play.

567
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: So this is a crowded receiving corps and Mike is

568
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: SICKI at tight end, Jacoby Burssett is under center now,

569
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: so they're they're you know, playing more low eight football.

570
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: He had a six point six eight out last week,

571
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 1: which is pretty low, so that that turned into a

572
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 1: bunch of dump offs to Jalen Waddle. We saw Mike

573
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: is sick, you go off for ten catches last week.

574
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: So DeVante Parker is going to be this kind of

575
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: odd man out where he's going to have to go

576
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: over this on just maybe three to four receptions, and

577
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 1: you know, I'm projecting his production to drop off quite

578
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: a bit going forward. So yeah, I'm projecting this culture

579
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: a thirty nine in a half and I'd probably take

580
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: this down about forty three and a half. Yeah, I

581
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: think the key is Fuller.

582
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: I think Fuller's presence, you know, he's probably gonna get

583
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: worked in more to the offense, you know, as the

584
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: as the week's kind of progressed because last week, Fuller

585
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: only ran a route one seventy percent of the of

586
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,719
Speaker 2: the dropbacks, so there's room for growth. And Watto has

587
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 2: been consistently pretty high, you know, in the in the

588
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 2: nineties all but one game so and even in the

589
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 2: nineties last week, you know, because you've got to throw

590
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 2: to him when you're back up in your own end zone.

591
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 2: You got to throw the WADO five. But that, yeah,

592
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 2: that's just that's as well as Parker's for But no, yeah,

593
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 2: I feel you. I think that's the only you can

594
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: only go under on this prop. And Parker's probably trending down,

595
00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 2: even though he wasn't really doing great to begin with,

596
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be trending down.

597
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: And what so, what are your routes run projection for

598
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: Fuller this week? I'm up to seventy six and a half,

599
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: But like you said, it wouldn't surprise me if he

600
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: goes over eighty. I think, you know, his ceiling is

601
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 1: probably ninety percent to keep him fresh. But any any

602
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: kind of increased issues for Fuller is going to eat

603
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: away from Parker. Here, I have Wattle ninety, Parker eighty five,

604
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 1: Fuller eighty so kind of oh okay, yeah, we're very close.

605
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: Then yeah, yeah, yeah, I think that's fair about a

606
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 2: ten percent, you know, kind of splitting the difference between

607
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 2: Parker and Fuller because they're both kind of outside guys.

608
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: But it seems like Wattle's going to stay on the field.

609
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, but.

610
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 2: Were my last one. I am going with our boy

611
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: Robbie Anderson. Yeah, buddy, forty three and a half receiving

612
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: yard and this one, this one stands out to me

613
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: for a number of reasons.

614
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 1: Uh.

615
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 2: Number one, again, a lot of the edges for me

616
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,400
Speaker 2: come and just listening to what you know, the team

617
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 2: is saying, what the what are the reports out of

618
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: out of Carolina? What's going on there? How are they

619
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 2: feeling about this three and oh team? The one thing

620
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: the coaches are saying, And despite this three and oh start,

621
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 2: we got to get Robbie Anderson more involved.

622
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: We got to get Robby Anderson more involved.

623
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 2: Only one catch last week against the Houston Texans for

624
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 2: eight yards, so this.

625
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: Is a and one catch in week one.

626
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 2: Now it went for fifty seven and a touch, but

627
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: one catch in two of the three games for guy

628
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: who signed a big contract, a guy who's played with

629
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, before in their first potentially negative game script

630
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: of the year, because remember they played the Jets, the Saints,

631
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 2: and the Houston Texans and won comfortably in each of

632
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 2: those games. First probably negative game script, and you're going,

633
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 2: you know, against the Dallas team that, yes, Diggs is

634
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: playing well, but Diggs will probably be on more most

635
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 2: of the afternoon because Anderson hasn't been doing nothing. So

636
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: this is just a get right spot for Robbie Anderson.

637
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: In his career as a Panther, He's been over this

638
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 2: number in thirteen of nineteen games, so he's been over

639
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 2: forty three and a half in sixty eight percent of

640
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 2: his games as a Panther, and he even got over

641
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: it in one game this year despite getting only one

642
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 2: catch in that game. So I think this is a

643
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: major get right spot for the Cowboys are allowing two

644
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 2: hundred and eight yards per game to wide receivers, six

645
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 2: most in the league, and that makes sense because their

646
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 2: offense is pretty good. They're gonna make you have to

647
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: throw the football, so I think he's gonna get schemed looks.

648
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: This is an over just based on his entire Panthers career.

649
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: His average at the target is seventeen point seven, so

650
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: he could. He gives you the potential to cash us

651
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 2: out on just one catch, even on a deep ball

652
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: down the field.

653
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: So a lot of ways I think Robbie goes over it.

654
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: Not many ways I see him going under it, even

655
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: though he's been under in two or three this year,

656
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: just because we know that for a fact the coaches

657
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 2: are gonna scheme him up easy ones in this one.

658
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in total agreement. Here are our loyal listener,

659
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: Stephen Demingez, who won our listener contests and was in

660
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: that four person Best Ball draft with you, me and Smanta,

661
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: and you snaked him. Robbie Anderson. That's our boy. He

662
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: asked me on Twitter this week, Is it time to

663
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: drop Robby Anderson? I said, no, Let's let's give him

664
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 1: a chance and a potential negative game script, and then

665
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: we'll make a decision, because this is one of those

666
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: games where it would not surprise me if he goes

667
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: over this number on a single catch. You know he's

668
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: been the deep target they're gonna have to throw most likely.

669
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: Like I said, I think Dallas should win this game.

670
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: So we're gonna see our first potential negative game script.

671
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: They just got rid of Dan Arnold, CMC is hurt,

672
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 1: So you know, I think we're gonna see a narrow

673
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: target tree with Dj Moore, who I love this week,

674
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: and even Terrence Marshall. So I think this is the

675
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: time to buy law on Robby Anderson if you can.

676
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 2: And keep in mind, seventeen point seven average up the

677
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 2: target this year, but last season it was down at

678
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: just under ten, just under ten, So what they He

679
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 2: will see a couple of deep targets, I no doubt

680
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: about that, but they could also get him more high

681
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: percentage looks in this game, which is what he was

682
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: doing last year, which is why you know he was

683
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: over this number in twelve or sixteen. So I think

684
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: that's the key here. It's that this year it's really

685
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 2: been only the deep targets, which.

686
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: Is, yeah, do you have any insight obviously really good

687
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: with you know, staying up the beat and what teams

688
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: are saying. Like so last year Offensive cornertor Joe Brady

689
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 1: used him as the X receiver role, the Mike Thomas

690
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,479
Speaker 1: role on this Sean Payton style scheme, and that's why

691
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: I love Mike Williams this year, Like have they gone

692
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 1: away with that with Robbie Anderson or like, what's the

693
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: story there, Do you have any idea that's why he

694
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: was so consistent last year because like you said, he

695
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: had a lower A dot really diverse route tree, and

696
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: this year he seems back to what we expect from him,

697
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: you know, just the super high A dot just running

698
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: goes and you know it's helped Dj Moore considerably. But

699
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: I was just wondering if if we had any idea

700
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: if they changed the roles. So I don't think they've

701
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 1: changed his role a ton.

702
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 2: I think it's been a product of the game script

703
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 2: for the most part, because he played really well last year.

704
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: But you play the Jets and then you blow out

705
00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 2: the Saints to the point where they don't even get

706
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 2: to double digits, and then you play the Houston Texans

707
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: with Davis Mills that quarterback, and you played Zach Wilson

708
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: in this first game too, So that's just a really

709
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 2: outlier type of game script for you know, the Panthers

710
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: in general, Like the Panthers last year where one of

711
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: the worst teams in the league, right, So you're talking

712
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: about a team that goes from one of the worst

713
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: teams in the league to playing you know, two layup

714
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: matchups and a third against the Saints that they thoroughly

715
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: dominated to the point. And remember in Week one, Robbie

716
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: did get the one catch fifty seven and a touchdown,

717
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: so you know, going into week two, you're not really

718
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 2: concerned about it.

719
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 1: They end up blowing them out.

720
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: Okay, he doesn't do much, and then Week three another

721
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 2: game where they just didn't really need it. So this game,

722
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: I think you're going to see again a lot of

723
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 2: Digs on more because Diggs has been playing so good. Yeah,

724
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: that he makes that Cowboys defense like actually decent because

725
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 2: they were bad last year.

726
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, they really needed him to step up this year

727
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: because they I mean they got snakes, not only Patrick's certain,

728
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: but j C. Horn like both cornerbacks went. So I

729
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: thought they put a ton of pressure on Digs this

730
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: year and he's stepped up huge.

731
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, but absolutely, And and the one thing too about

732
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: Robbie is they're moving him around.

733
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: That's why I don't think the rules have changed.

734
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: Last season, he played a career high thirty three percent

735
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 2: of snatch in the slot. This season he's up to

736
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: a career like now a new career high thirty eight

737
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 2: percent in the slot.

738
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: The last two games.

739
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 2: He played fifty eight percent routes in the slot against

740
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: New Orleans and at thirty five percent against Houston. So

741
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 2: they are moving him around now. They want to scheme

742
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 2: to him, they'll get him some high percentage looks. So yeah,

743
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: love Robbie. Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is

744
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: a segment we call Elite Entries where Sean and I

745
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 2: dive into the Prize Picks app and compare our player

746
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: projections to the props to build some entries. Sean, what

747
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 2: is your first Prize Picks Elite entry best bet for

748
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: Week number four?

749
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: So the first prop I like is Calvern Lee to

750
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 1: go under eighty five and a half receiving yards. I

751
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: also like Matt Ryan to go under his two hundred

752
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: and seventy three and a half yard prop as well.

753
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: So these are pretty correlated, well they're streaming correlated. But

754
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: you know, the Falcons have been a lot more run

755
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 1: heavy this season without Julio Jones and with Arthur Smith

756
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: as head coach, so you know they're a little bit

757
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: more middle of the pack now, so we can't really

758
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: expect the same sort of usage we've seen out of

759
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: Calverley over the years. And his aid is way down

760
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: this year. It's eight point eight. Last year is fourteen

761
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: point nine. So despite you know, catching six point seven

762
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 1: receptions a game, he's yet to go over sixty five

763
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: receiving yards. So I mean this is just way too high.

764
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: I project this closure at seventy five and a half,

765
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 1: so I think this market's ten yards too high. Give

766
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: me the under.

767
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt Ryan averaging under five yards the A dot

768
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: and he got Washington top three in pressures even though

769
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 2: the defense has been shaky, so not a lot of

770
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:51,959
Speaker 2: time for him to get downfield to ridly.

771
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 3: I like it.

772
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 2: My first one for Week four is Saquon Barkley under

773
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 2: sixty and a half rushing yards. Saquon is going up

774
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: against the New Orleans Saints, who year in year out

775
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 2: have an excellent run defense.

776
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 1: This year, they're.

777
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 2: Allowing fifty two rushing yards per game total to running backs.

778
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 2: Barkley also hasn't hit you know, sixty one yards yet

779
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 2: in a game this season, so I love this under

780
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 2: for Saquon. Here, I bet it down to about fifty five. Saquon,

781
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: this is not the week for him to smash a

782
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 2: rushing from all right, where's your number? What's your all right, Sean?

783
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: Where is your all right, Sean?

784
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 2: Where are you going with your second prize big lead

785
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 2: entry best bet for Week four?

786
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 1: All right? So this is my favorite prop of the week.

787
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: I just love talking about this. But it's Tom Brady

788
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: over three hundred and fourteen and a half passing yards.

789
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: By the by the time this game is complete, this

790
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: prop will look like a joke. I think there's just

791
00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 1: rare times where we have to go against our models

792
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 1: and logic a bit. I always think Kobe Brant's final game,

793
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: his player prop for points is like forty and a

794
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 1: half or something like that. I just smashed the over

795
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: justin Jefferson Week seventeen last year. He needed one hundred

796
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 1: and eleven yards to break the rookie record for receiving yards.

797
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: I think as props like eighty and a half. I said,

798
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: I will bet the over up to one hundred and

799
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half. He flew over. So Tom Brady

800
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: heading back to New England, this is in that tier

801
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: of props. I think he's going to go off here.

802
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 1: He also needs sixty eight yards to break the all

803
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: time record for passing yards to pass up Drew Brees

804
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: here so he has multiple motivating factors here. I think

805
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: he goes over four hundred, so I will take the

806
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: over here. You know, we're talking like it's got to

807
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 1: go up to like three fifty five for me to

808
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 1: even consider the under. So give me over three fourteen

809
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: and a half passing yards for Tom Brady. Oh man,

810
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: this is going to be such a good one. I

811
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: can't wait to watch this.

812
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 2: I want to. I know you're going to probably get

813
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: in some some huge bets on tom Brady, so I am.

814
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: I'll be watching that one closely to see if you're

815
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 2: right about that one, because this is you have.

816
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 1: This is your take, like this is this is a

817
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,720
Speaker 1: unique take that I really haven't heard anywhere.

818
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 2: If tom Brady just completely smashing his passyard prop it

819
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 2: makes sense, it makes sense.

820
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: So it's a total it's a total Docky play when

821
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: that's present. If other people think this too, But just

822
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 1: an athlete the caliber of Tom Brady, the greatest of

823
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: all time, who doesn't need much motivation to play well,

824
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 1: has all the motivation this week heading back to Cumingland,

825
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 1: So we just we can't overlook that.

826
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe Bill Bouchick will come meet it next time.

827
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was four or five hundred yards this game.

828
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: I'll close it out with my second best bet poor week,

829
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,760
Speaker 2: number four at Prize Picks and add is Robbie Anderson

830
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 2: over forty three and a half receiving yards. This is

831
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 2: a number that he's cleared in thirteen of nineteen, or

832
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of his career games with the Panthers.

833
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 2: He's only gone on and two towards the prop this season,

834
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,359
Speaker 2: but that's because the Panthers have been in three very

835
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: positive game scripts, going up against the Jets, blowing out

836
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 2: the Saints, and then playing Houston and.

837
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 1: Davis Mills in his first start.

838
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: This game, there are four point four and a half

839
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,240
Speaker 2: point underdog two of the Dallas Cowboys, who are allowing

840
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 2: the six most receiving yards per game, and the word

841
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 2: out of Carolina all week from the coaches themselves has

842
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 2: been we need to get Robbie Anderson more involved. And

843
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 2: anytime a three and zero team is still trying to

844
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 2: change things up and get a guy involved that hasn't

845
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 2: been even when they're winning, that's always a good sign.

846
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 1: They're gonna need it.

847
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: In this game. DJ Moore probably see a lot of

848
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 2: Trevon Diggs so love Robbie Anderson over forty three and

849
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards, and that is our Prize Picks

850
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 2: a lead entry for week number four, Tarikat, We're going

851
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 2: with Calvin Ridley under eighty five and a half receiving yards,

852
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 2: Tom Brady over three hundred and fourteen and a half

853
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 2: passing yards, Sakwon Barkley under sixty and a half rushing yards,

854
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 2: and Robbie Anderson over forty three and a half receiving yards.

855
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 2: As a reminder, these Prize Picks markets do move, so

856
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 2: you want to be quick to get on the best

857
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: numbers before the lines change. If you haven't created a

858
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 2: prize Pix account yet, check the link in our episode's

859
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 2: description and they'll match your first deposit up to one

860
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Or visit prize picks dot com and use

861
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 2: the promo code Action one zero. Prize Picks is also

862
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 2: doing a promotion where if you tail us with this

863
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 2: four pick power play here, you make this a four

864
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 2: pick powerplay and you do it fast enough that you

865
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 2: get these same numbers again. Ridley eighty five and a half,

866
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 2: Barkley sixty and a half, Brady three fourteen and a

867
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 2: half Anderson forty three and a half. If you get

868
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 2: those four numbers, you can win twenty x your bet

869
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 2: if it hits, so be sure to check that out.

870
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 2: Download the Prize Picks app or go to prize picks

871
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 2: dot com.

872
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: And let me recap our picks. That's gonna do it.

873
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: Four our five picks for the Fantasy Flex we Pour

874
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 2: Pod presented by Prize Picks. Sean is going Tom Brady

875
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: over three hundred and fourteen and a half passing yards,

876
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones over sixty five and a half rushing yards,

877
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette under forty three and a half rushing yards,

878
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley under eighty five and a half receiving yards,

879
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:25,280
Speaker 2: and Devonte Parker under forty seven and a half receiving yards.

880
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 2: I'm going Kyler Murray under thirty seven and a half

881
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:31,359
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Sae Kwon Barkley under sixty and a half

882
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Ezekiel Elliott under sixty three and a half

883
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Dalton Schultz under thirty eight and a half

884
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 2: receiving yards, and Robbie Anderson over forty three and a

885
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:44,240
Speaker 2: half receiving yards.

886
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 1: That is going to do it for us.

887
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker.

888
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Chris Raybond. You

889
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 2: can find us at those same handles in the award

890
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 2: winning Action Network app. Be sure to check out our

891
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 2: fantasy football projections, rankings, and content at actionnetwork dot com

892
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 2: or in the Action app, And be sure to check

893
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 2: out our DFS content and tools at Fantasy Labs dot com.

894
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: Until next time, let's get this s money