WEBVTT - U.S. Startups Need Immigrants, AOL Co-Founder Says

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<v Speaker 1>Brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch. Investing in

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<v Speaker 1>local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's the power

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<v Speaker 1>of global connections, Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner, and Smith Incorporated

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<v Speaker 1>Member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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<v Speaker 1>insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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<v Speaker 1>Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course on the Bloomberg I'll leg it to my

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<v Speaker 1>Morning mus Street is an entree to Steve Case on

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<v Speaker 1>technology and the people we need to make America about it.

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<v Speaker 1>This is from the wonderful Noah Feldment of Harvard, one

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<v Speaker 1>of my favorite favorite people on law and constitution. As

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<v Speaker 1>they argued in a column I wrote at three am

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<v Speaker 1>after the election, it's all about the Constitution now, the

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<v Speaker 1>protection of sanctuary cities and these example of how the

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<v Speaker 1>Constitution protects minority rights, in this case, the rights of

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<v Speaker 1>cities that dissent on immigration policy with US. Is Steve Case,

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<v Speaker 1>a o L co founder and author of The Third Wave.

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<v Speaker 1>I can't say enough about the accessibility of his book,

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<v Speaker 1>and I would suggest out of Punaho that you grew

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<v Speaker 1>up in the sanctuary state. Hawaii is the absolutely crucible,

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<v Speaker 1>almost almost a test tube if you will, of these

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<v Speaker 1>these these emotions that are buffeting America right now. If

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<v Speaker 1>Hawaii was a sanctuary state for so many, particularly out

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<v Speaker 1>of Asia. Tell us about your thoughts on sanctuary cities

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<v Speaker 1>and what we do if we build walls around them. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I did have the opportunity to grow up in Hawaii,

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<v Speaker 1>which is sort of a melting pot. There are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of different people, a lot of different countries, and

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<v Speaker 1>even as a as a young Caucasian guy, was actually

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<v Speaker 1>in the minority. They're not the not the majority. So

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<v Speaker 1>I had a sense of what was possible when you

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<v Speaker 1>brought different people, had different perspectives, different backgrounds, different outlooks together.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's with what's made not just Hawaii great,

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<v Speaker 1>but American great. We've always been a great immigrant nation.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we need to figure out how to strike the

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<v Speaker 1>right balance in terms of enforcing the rules of of

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<v Speaker 1>the road while also still being welcoming. Uh. I'm a

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<v Speaker 1>little concern that the applications to the schools are particularly

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<v Speaker 1>PhD s things like that from other countries are are down,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, requests for visas are down. We need to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure we are welcoming to people while still for

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<v Speaker 1>enforcing our laws. And that's particularly important in the technology

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<v Speaker 1>sect of the innovation sector. That's where a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of of the fortunate companies were started by immigrants.

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<v Speaker 1>Almost of Silicon Valley companies were started by immigrants. So

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<v Speaker 1>we need to figure out how to strike this this

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<v Speaker 1>this balance. I hope that will be more of a

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<v Speaker 1>focus going forward. Steve Case, of course, the co founder

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<v Speaker 1>of a Well Enough, chairman and CEO of Revolution, the

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<v Speaker 1>author of the Third Wave, an entrepreneur's vision of the future.

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<v Speaker 1>And I should also add someone who's advised Person Obama

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<v Speaker 1>on innovation and entrepreneurship, a member of the former President's

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<v Speaker 1>counsel on Jobs and Competitiveness. He joins us here in

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<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg eleven three oh studio. Is great to see you,

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, New York. Let me start with with the

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<v Speaker 1>government angle. Here. We talk a lot about how to

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<v Speaker 1>catalyze or encourage innovation entrepreneurship. As you've been thinking about this,

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<v Speaker 1>has been dealing with it. What role should the government play,

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<v Speaker 1>What can the government do well to to kick start innovation. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>one thing it could do and hopefully we'll do this

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<v Speaker 1>year is sort of level of playing field in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of access to capital. Right now, if you're in a

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<v Speaker 1>place like New York City or Boston or San Francisco

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<v Speaker 1>and the whole Silicon Valley area, you do pretty well

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<v Speaker 1>and the entrepreneurs there can raise the capital and need.

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<v Speaker 1>But most of the country, most entrepreneurs can't. Last year,

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<v Speaker 1>the data is pretty sobering that seventy eight percent of

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<v Speaker 1>venture capital went to just three states California, New York,

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<v Speaker 1>and Massachusetts. The other forty seven states got So we

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<v Speaker 1>need to what we we're focused on what we call

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<v Speaker 1>the Rise of the rest to help those entrepreneurs in

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<v Speaker 1>those places. The other is to in this third wave

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<v Speaker 1>it's just to be merging now, which will be the

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<v Speaker 1>next evolution of the Internet and really disrupt you know,

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<v Speaker 1>some sectors like education, healthcare, transportation, food, agg culture. Getting

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<v Speaker 1>the regulations right will be critical. How do you keep

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<v Speaker 1>bad things from happening and make sure that the food

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<v Speaker 1>your kids eat at school and make them sick or

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<v Speaker 1>you know, driver list cars don't create havoc, but have

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<v Speaker 1>a bias towards enabling good things to happen and and

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<v Speaker 1>unleashing that innovation. Actually, the government did that pretty well

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<v Speaker 1>with the Internet when they kind of, you know, put

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<v Speaker 1>the money in to build the basic research that made

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<v Speaker 1>the Internet possible and then commercialized the Internet and had

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<v Speaker 1>had a light touch approach to regulation in those early

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<v Speaker 1>days thirty plus years ago. Hopefully that will be the

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<v Speaker 1>case in some of these new emerging sectors as well,

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<v Speaker 1>because that will enable the United States to remain the

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<v Speaker 1>most entrepreneurnation. You've got a new partner revolution. That's J. D.

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<v Speaker 1>Vans author I Field Bill LG. I think a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of us have read the book and know of his

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<v Speaker 1>his work. He's setting out to look for innovation new

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<v Speaker 1>companies outside of California, New York, and Massachusetts. How's it

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<v Speaker 1>gonna go about doing that? How do you do that

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<v Speaker 1>at the firm? How do you look for for pockets

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<v Speaker 1>of innovation outside of those three states? Well, there's two parts.

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<v Speaker 1>We started an initiative about three years ago called Rise

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<v Speaker 1>of the Rest, and I've traveled by bus six thousand

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<v Speaker 1>miles visit at ease and plays like Detroit, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Phoenix, Salbuquerque, Madison, Minneapolis,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Des Moines, St. Louis, really all over the country,

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<v Speaker 1>trying to understand what's happening in each of the cities

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<v Speaker 1>and trying to champion the the entrepreneurs in each of

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<v Speaker 1>the cities, tell their stories, attract more capital to their

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<v Speaker 1>to their companies into their their cities. So that's what

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<v Speaker 1>we're doing at the Revolution. And jd. Vance just joined

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<v Speaker 1>just recently. We announced that last month. He of course,

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<v Speaker 1>when he wrote the book Killed Billy Elogy, it was

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<v Speaker 1>a huge bestseller. I think it's sold a million copies

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<v Speaker 1>already and really told the story of a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people in this country that do feel kind of left

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<v Speaker 1>out and left behind by technology, by digitization, by by globalization.

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<v Speaker 1>And and he was at the only time there was

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<v Speaker 1>writing the book. He actually was in Silicon Valley working

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<v Speaker 1>for Peter til focused on UH and venture capital investments.

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<v Speaker 1>But when I met him last fall, he said he

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<v Speaker 1>was planning to leave Silicon Valley move home to Ohio,

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<v Speaker 1>which is where he was born and raised, because he

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to not just defind the problem as he did

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<v Speaker 1>in the book Hell Bill the Elergy, but be part

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<v Speaker 1>of the solution, and one part of that solution. The

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<v Speaker 1>others as well is trying to level the play feel,

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<v Speaker 1>get more capital, going to more entrepreneurs in Ohio and

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<v Speaker 1>other places. So he'll be moving back and forth between

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<v Speaker 1>Ohio where he'll be based, in Washington See where where

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<v Speaker 1>we'll be based, but spending a lot of time on

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<v Speaker 1>the road talking about his book and talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>rise of the rest and championing these entrepreneurs that really

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<v Speaker 1>have the opportunity to build the next great iconic companies

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<v Speaker 1>if we pay attention and if we fund them. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you associate uh in Ohio the same pixie dust that

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<v Speaker 1>I see in San Francisco, which is top flight academics.

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<v Speaker 1>Ohio happens to have that. Yeah, it's an advantage that

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<v Speaker 1>they've got a case Western Reserve and the and the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the good people and the great expertise in

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<v Speaker 1>sectors where Cincinnati. My first job actually out of college

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<v Speaker 1>was Procter and Gamble in Cincinnati. A lot of consumer technic.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you do for proctoring? Game? Brand management? What

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<v Speaker 1>what the hell is brand man? It was basically when

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<v Speaker 1>I was twenty one years old that I was still

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<v Speaker 1>learning what was basically they assign you to work on

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<v Speaker 1>a particular product I was there at the same time

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<v Speaker 1>that you sold toothpaste. I worked with called it at

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<v Speaker 1>the time, the toilet goods division they had that they

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<v Speaker 1>they because they're a good market if they renamed it

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<v Speaker 1>beauty here after a while, but it was like, you're

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<v Speaker 1>too taste in shampoo. And I worked on a hair

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<v Speaker 1>permanent product that failed in test market, and I also

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<v Speaker 1>worked on a couple other other kind of hair care products.

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<v Speaker 1>But I learned a lot of particularly about market. Even

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<v Speaker 1>the people used to tease when all was kind of

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<v Speaker 1>in the nine ninies really rapidly expanding. We were giving

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<v Speaker 1>out free trial disc all the time, UH, and that

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<v Speaker 1>was sort of a lesson we learned from PG. They're

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<v Speaker 1>great at getting people to try their product for free sample.

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<v Speaker 1>So essentially Well got got big because of the pmber

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<v Speaker 1>My experience. But going back to your question, Ohio has

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<v Speaker 1>great uh talent there, but historically there's been a brain drain.

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<v Speaker 1>People grew up there, went to school there, but felt

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<v Speaker 1>like they had to move to California or New York

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<v Speaker 1>for some other place to to, you know, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>find their opportunity. Now they're realizing they don't have to

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<v Speaker 1>leave because of the innovation is really now happening everywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>Just so you understand, David, and you're way too young

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<v Speaker 1>to understand this. We used to use Steve's ale well

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<v Speaker 1>dis that you get in the mail. Those would be

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<v Speaker 1>beer coasters for Jenny Crema. You could you could just say,

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<v Speaker 1>look that we got. We got a whole brace of it.

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<v Speaker 1>We have like six or twelve of them for for

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<v Speaker 1>all Reduce for users. They're the great coaster FORTI case

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<v Speaker 1>with some Bloomrick surveillance. We talk about geography here. If

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<v Speaker 1>I'm starting a company, um am, I looking for a

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<v Speaker 1>place to put it, do I say, oh, look it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's less expensive to do it in Detroit. I'm being

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<v Speaker 1>encouraged to do it in Detroit. I'll go there, or

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<v Speaker 1>I might go to d C, or might go to

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<v Speaker 1>Silk How how does that calculus work? How does somebody

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<v Speaker 1>decide where to start a company in the r teth

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<v Speaker 1>I think the big the biggest driver in this next

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<v Speaker 1>ten fifteen, twenty years, what I've called in the book

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<v Speaker 1>the third wave, will be domain expertise. If you're really

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<v Speaker 1>trying to disrupt healthcare, for example, being in Cleveland near

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<v Speaker 1>the Cleveland Clinic or in Baltimore near Johns Hopkins, or

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<v Speaker 1>near United Health in Minneapolis. When partnership has become more important,

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<v Speaker 1>being closer to those partners will become important. We're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>this in cities now like Pittsburgh that is known as

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of the steel capital help power the whole

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<v Speaker 1>Industrial revolution because of Carnegie mal and their expertise and

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<v Speaker 1>robotics and their history of making things. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>innovation there. Even Uber, kind of a prototypical Silicon Valley

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<v Speaker 1>company is focusing its innovation around dry West Cars and

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<v Speaker 1>in Pittsburgh. So you're starting to see the agriculture what

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<v Speaker 1>some people call agg tech. Uh, there's innovation happening in

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<v Speaker 1>Silicon Valley, but there's also innovation in place like Louisville

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<v Speaker 1>and Lincoln, even St. Louis which ra Monsanto's based. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of engineers and understand a lot about farming.

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<v Speaker 1>In your book, the last and then you're you're brilliant

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<v Speaker 1>on this. You've got like ten pages of photographs and

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<v Speaker 1>the last three pages is kids in Pittsburgh, kids in Ohio, etcetera, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>Aren't they there because they can actually afford to get

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<v Speaker 1>to the end of the month paycheck that this is

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<v Speaker 1>like a huge deal. That's a big part. Now, some

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<v Speaker 1>of them are there just because they happen to be

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<v Speaker 1>there and they're starting companies, but some of them are

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<v Speaker 1>there because they believe they can build companies there and

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<v Speaker 1>at the cost of living is much lower. And I've

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<v Speaker 1>seen this also if we travel around. The winner of

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<v Speaker 1>our Rise of the Rest Pitch competition in Detroit actually

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<v Speaker 1>started company in San Francisco but moved to Detroit, partly

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<v Speaker 1>for cost of living it was going to be less

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<v Speaker 1>than half a aust for rent and salaries and and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth, partly because he was from there and wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to go back there and raise his family there, and

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<v Speaker 1>probably because he wanted to be part of the renaissance,

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<v Speaker 1>the rebuilding, the reimagining of of of Detroit. We're starting

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<v Speaker 1>to see that all over the country what had been

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<v Speaker 1>a brain drain at that brain drain now slowing, and

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<v Speaker 1>even we're beginning to see a very early signs of

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<v Speaker 1>a boomerang of talent where people who felt they had

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<v Speaker 1>to go to the coast now are beginning to realize that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this regional entrepreneurship is beginning to accelerate and

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<v Speaker 1>and they can really start a company anywhere. How is

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<v Speaker 1>the the environment for we're starting a company and growing

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<v Speaker 1>a company chain since you started all and when when

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<v Speaker 1>we got started, venture capital was was still uh, relatively

0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.240
<v Speaker 1>early days. It's a relatively recent phenomena. When we started

0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.280
<v Speaker 1>in the Washington, d C. Area, it was not very

0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.240
<v Speaker 1>start up friendly. It was, you know, kind of a

0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:47.760
<v Speaker 1>big company town, kind of a government town. So for

0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.640
<v Speaker 1>all our venture capital came from other places, Boston, Chicago,

0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:54.200
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. None of it came from the the DC area. Uh.

0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.280
<v Speaker 1>And even when I graduate from college, I talked about

0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:57.680
<v Speaker 1>this in the in the book. I had read a

0:10:57.720 --> 0:10:59.880
<v Speaker 1>book called The Third Wave by Alvin Toffler when I

0:10:59.880 --> 0:11:03.040
<v Speaker 1>was in college, and it talked about essentially the Internet, uh,

0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:05.120
<v Speaker 1>And I was mesmerized by it. I wanted to do it.

0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:08.040
<v Speaker 1>But when I graduate night there was no Internet companies

0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:09.840
<v Speaker 1>to go do and there was no startup culture, so

0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:11.800
<v Speaker 1>I couldn't really do my own thing. So it's really

0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:14.760
<v Speaker 1>changed quite dramatically in the last few decades. What's amazing

0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.520
<v Speaker 1>about this, David, is you read Elvin Toffler, you read

0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:21.280
<v Speaker 1>The Third Wave, and you had your Karmen Gia. You

0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:22.760
<v Speaker 1>know you had a Karmen Gee. And if you're a

0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:26.280
<v Speaker 1>rich kid, you had a SOB and you put your talk.

0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.640
<v Speaker 1>You could pick up girls just by putting your third

0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:30.800
<v Speaker 1>wave on the back, you know, the back of the

0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:34.280
<v Speaker 1>four seat car. They think you were sensitive. Gearshifter was

0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.880
<v Speaker 1>on the dash right, Yeah, well, yeah, well that was

0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:42.120
<v Speaker 1>a SOB. My first car was the exploding Pinto I

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 1>got I got from four box. I didn't tell my

0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:46.480
<v Speaker 1>parents about it because they've probably have been scared. A

0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:51.640
<v Speaker 1>fine engineered vehicle that Pinto. Mike Michael Barr still drives one.

0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:53.440
<v Speaker 1>I think I had two of them. You had two

0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:57.840
<v Speaker 1>pints at one point. Uh, talk about energy. That was terrible.

0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.000
<v Speaker 1>David Garrett and Tom Keene in New York with us

0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 1>THEEF Case of Revolution here in our Bloomberg eleven three

0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:04.760
<v Speaker 1>oh studios and Steve I wanted to ask you about

0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.319
<v Speaker 1>um sort of the conversation about manufacturing that we're having

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 1>right now. The present talks an awful lot about bringing

0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:12.680
<v Speaker 1>jobs back, and we don't hear a whole lot about

0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:18.120
<v Speaker 1>the future manufacturing. We're about technological advancement, tour automation. Are

0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.440
<v Speaker 1>we are we missing out? On some component of that

0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.640
<v Speaker 1>conversation by not talking about those issues. Yeah, I think so.

0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.080
<v Speaker 1>I think it's great for the president were trying to

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:27.880
<v Speaker 1>keep as many jobs in the country or you know,

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.320
<v Speaker 1>from moving off shore. But I think we have to

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.280
<v Speaker 1>not just kind of think about what was there thirty

0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:35.040
<v Speaker 1>or forty years ago, but what's going to be there

0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:37.160
<v Speaker 1>thirty or fourty years from now, and make the investments

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 1>in the industries of the future. Now, advanced manufacturing is

0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.320
<v Speaker 1>starting to show some momentum, and they're actually because of robotics.

0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 1>It's an odd dynamic, but because of some of the

0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:49.760
<v Speaker 1>automation technologies, manufacturing that was moved off shore twenty years

0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 1>ago is now beginning to come back because there is

0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:53.559
<v Speaker 1>less of a labor costs. So the bad news is

0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:55.280
<v Speaker 1>there's fewer jobs. The good news is some of the

0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.880
<v Speaker 1>jobs that were going away are are are coming back.

0:12:57.920 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 1>So that's an example where there's sort of a kind

0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:03.320
<v Speaker 1>of surprises emerged. But I think the real opportunity is

0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 1>in this third wave is to figure out where things

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.520
<v Speaker 1>are going and figure out what partnerships are necessary to

0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.839
<v Speaker 1>lead the way. I think there's a broader social discussion

0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:15.320
<v Speaker 1>around artificial intelligence and robotics and driverless cars, and how

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 1>do you deal with the fact that a lot of

0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:18.960
<v Speaker 1>jobs will be displaced. A lot of jobs will be

0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.000
<v Speaker 1>lost because of those innovations. I think the only way

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:22.800
<v Speaker 1>to deal with that is to try to make sure

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 1>you're offsetting that by backing entrepreneurs in these emerging Rise

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.000
<v Speaker 1>of the rest cities. So it's not just about job destruction,

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 1>it's also about job creation. Startups are the big job creator.

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:33.880
<v Speaker 1>We just can't just focus on backing the startups in

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.600
<v Speaker 1>place like Silicon Valley and not in places like Detroit.

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 1>As it's like to be a founder of a big

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.640
<v Speaker 1>We had Tim Armstrong here a couple of weeks back,

0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:42.959
<v Speaker 1>and there was a rebranding and talking about oath and

0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 1>all of all of that stuff. But when when you

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 1>when you found a company, how far out are you looking?

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.440
<v Speaker 1>Could you have envisioned what a o L is today?

0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.680
<v Speaker 1>How many iterations it's been through, where it's headed now?

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:54.600
<v Speaker 1>How How forward looking are you when you're starting a

0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.079
<v Speaker 1>company like well, you have to be pretty forward looking.

0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.400
<v Speaker 1>And again, when we when we started at thirty two

0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:02.199
<v Speaker 1>years ago, it was early days. Only three percent of

0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>people were online at all at the time, and they're

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.079
<v Speaker 1>only online about an hour a week. And so when

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:07.959
<v Speaker 1>we said we wanted to get America online, get the

0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 1>world online, we knew it was gonna be a tough task.

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:11.559
<v Speaker 1>But the surprise to me, frankly, it was it took

0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 1>longer to get going than I thought. It was really

0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.679
<v Speaker 1>a decade before we finally It was just just it

0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.080
<v Speaker 1>struck me as an obvious idea, but the reality is

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 1>most people didn't think it was something most people wanted

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.280
<v Speaker 1>to bother with, So I just took a long, long

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.000
<v Speaker 1>term view. I think the challenge is to have that vision,

0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.520
<v Speaker 1>have that that focus on long term, but couple that

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.360
<v Speaker 1>with with execution, and that Thomas Edison said, this is

0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 1>inentrigo vision without execution as hallucinations. And how you strike

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 1>the balance between having the big idea, having a big vision,

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.560
<v Speaker 1>but also executing and having the patience and perseverance I

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>think will become more important again in the third way.

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 1>The second way, there are a lot of overnight successive snapchat, facebooks, cetera. Uh,

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 1>and the third wave it's gonna be more like the

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:50.680
<v Speaker 1>first wave. It's going to take more like ten years

0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 1>in the making before you had that overnight six let

0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>me ask the question. And I'm doing this folks. I

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.600
<v Speaker 1>got my iPhone out of my fancy brown case. He's

0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.400
<v Speaker 1>got his iPhone out and his tasteful black case. You

0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.840
<v Speaker 1>got your iPad? On page two forty two of the

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 1>Third Wave? What's your advice? For the third wave of

0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 1>the manufacturing shop known as Apple Computer? What do they

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:13.080
<v Speaker 1>do well? I think they're doing a great job. Did

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 1>you have a Lisa? I did not own one. I

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 1>certainly saw it when it got launched and was and

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 1>then you saw that was the dog it was. It

0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.880
<v Speaker 1>was the sort of an enterprise office of computer based

0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.280
<v Speaker 1>on some of the Xerox parktect How do they avoid

0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 1>a Lisa? What's your What's your advice? And they have

0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 1>You have to keep pushing, you have to keep trying

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 1>you can, and they have to open up some new markets.

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 1>I've said for some time that Apple, even though their

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 1>focus has been on sort of horizontal markets, has to

0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.400
<v Speaker 1>start focusing on some vertical mark healthcare being one. I

0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:46.840
<v Speaker 1>saw just over the weekend that there's some rumors that

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.960
<v Speaker 1>they're working on some technologies around diabetes, other kind of things.

0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 1>I think figure out how they take the expertise they

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:56.080
<v Speaker 1>have around interface and simplicity and and and accessibility and

0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 1>apply that to other other sectors. So I think it's

0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.200
<v Speaker 1>not just about the horizontal heating platforms, whether it be

0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:05.200
<v Speaker 1>a phone or iPad or computers themselves, about how you

0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:08.520
<v Speaker 1>take that expertise into more vertical markets like like health care.

0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>It's one sixth of our economy. Everybody agrees it's broken.

0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Innovation is necessary. Company like Apple could be a great innovator.

0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:15.800
<v Speaker 1>There is that the rich You've mentioned healthy here a

0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:17.520
<v Speaker 1>few times. That is that the richest vein now for

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:19.400
<v Speaker 1>for innovation to use. I think so just because it

0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 1>is such a big part of the economy and it's

0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.640
<v Speaker 1>so broken, and there are clearly a ways to use

0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:27.520
<v Speaker 1>technology to make you care more convenient uh and or accessible,

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 1>more more affordable, and more personalized. That this one scary

0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.280
<v Speaker 1>thing I talked about in the book is MD Anderson,

0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.720
<v Speaker 1>one of the great cancer hospitals. When people come there

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:37.920
<v Speaker 1>for second opinions, twenty five percent of the time they

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:42.600
<v Speaker 1>reverse the first opinion. That a lot of people go, yeah.

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 1>But now some of it's because there's some regional hospital

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.280
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't have the expertise in that. But some of

0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:50.040
<v Speaker 1>it's because that the technology hasn't been embraced to really

0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:54.160
<v Speaker 1>be much more specific around pathways and identifying what the

0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 1>problem is there for, what the diagnosis, what the what

0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:59.760
<v Speaker 1>the solution, the therapy should be. So clearly there's a

0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:01.720
<v Speaker 1>role for technology to play. The same time, one of

0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.359
<v Speaker 1>the key lessons I talk about is that it's not

0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 1>just about the technology, is not just about the software.

0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:08.520
<v Speaker 1>It's got to be people. It's got to be culture,

0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:10.919
<v Speaker 1>and that, you know, the revolution healthcare will be getting

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.080
<v Speaker 1>doctors and hospitals to think differently. The revolution education will

0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:16.399
<v Speaker 1>be getting you know, teachers and professors to think differently,

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:18.320
<v Speaker 1>not just getting the engineers to write I got I

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:21.240
<v Speaker 1>got forty seconds left? Is all on Steve Case in

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.400
<v Speaker 1>third wave? How do you manage your email? It's your fault?

0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 1>How I must have met? There are mornings I wake

0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.840
<v Speaker 1>up and say, this is a stupid ideas. Who got

0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 1>this thing started? Now? I I have multiple accounts for starters,

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>multiple accounts. I've been stealing newsletters things like that. I

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:40.280
<v Speaker 1>have go to one I want to account. Uh, And

0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:42.600
<v Speaker 1>so it's one way to kind of, you know, when

0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:44.239
<v Speaker 1>I have time in today, I'll kind of look at

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 1>that and I also just try to afford to other

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:49.280
<v Speaker 1>people that somebody else kind of deal with it with much.

0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:54.800
<v Speaker 1>But it's a great it's a great resource, but sometimes

0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.520
<v Speaker 1>it can be a source of frustration for all of us.

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:02.919
<v Speaker 1>It's your fault, So hush. It is a fabulous book, folks,

0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>with a new epilogue that really brings it up to

0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.800
<v Speaker 1>date with all that's going on in Washington. The Third

0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:12.119
<v Speaker 1>Wave Steve Case and Entrepreneur's Vision. I'll change the title

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:14.359
<v Speaker 1>of what to Do with this Nation? Steve Case. The

0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:26.159
<v Speaker 1>Third Wave, very important effort brought you by Bank of

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 1>America Mary Lynch, dedicated to bringing our clients insights and

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>solutions to meet the challenges of a transforming world. That's

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 1>the power of global connections, Mary Lynch. Pierce Federan Smith Incorporated,

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 1>Member s i PC, joining us now from the Union

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:52.480
<v Speaker 1>Bank of Switzerland. He's run six marathons, Julian Emmanuel, you've

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.520
<v Speaker 1>run six marathons? Are you one of those slugs that

0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:58.800
<v Speaker 1>comes in at five pm staggering away? Tell me how

0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:02.160
<v Speaker 1>you do this? Back of the packers they get uh,

0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:06.679
<v Speaker 1>you know, basically it is all preparation and psychology. You

0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 1>get in there, you decide you're gonna do it. You

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.280
<v Speaker 1>put in your miles before the event, and you do it,

0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:14.600
<v Speaker 1>and then the pain comes and you keep going. How

0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 1>do your ankles hold up? O wise one, These ankles

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:22.960
<v Speaker 1>need plenty of support. It's it's a challenge. Uh, you know,

0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of pain, but it's just it's a

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:29.080
<v Speaker 1>great experience. Going across the Arizona Bridge must be just extraordinary. Well,

0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:31.159
<v Speaker 1>the first time I did it, and the field the

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.879
<v Speaker 1>bridge actually sway. It was it was a little it

0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:37.320
<v Speaker 1>was a little bit unsettling, but you get you said, okay,

0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 1>we're sixteen Washington Street, sways up in Boston as well,

0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:44.480
<v Speaker 1>Julian Emmanuel with us with U B. S as we

0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:47.520
<v Speaker 1>talked to Marathon and on this special Monday for New

0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.760
<v Speaker 1>England and really a special market as well. When you

0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:56.600
<v Speaker 1>construct your research notes, now, seriously, do you could you

0:19:56.640 --> 0:20:01.480
<v Speaker 1>construct them around a gauze of a rash exuberance or

0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.280
<v Speaker 1>is there a sanity to where these equity valuations are well,

0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:09.119
<v Speaker 1>so when you think about investing, you basically put forth

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.480
<v Speaker 1>a thesis and then you wait for it to develop. Obviously,

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:15.879
<v Speaker 1>if it develops, you perhaps increase your exposure to the

0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:18.080
<v Speaker 1>thesis and if it doesn't, you peel it back a

0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:22.639
<v Speaker 1>little bit. Investors after the election took on the thesis

0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.680
<v Speaker 1>that the economy was going to grow stronger than had

0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:28.120
<v Speaker 1>been the case for the last many years, and that's

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 1>what engendered the confidence. So the confidence readings seem very high.

0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:36.640
<v Speaker 1>You might use the irrational zuberance simply because we haven't

0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:41.760
<v Speaker 1>seen the confirmation either through the economy itself or through policy. However,

0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:47.480
<v Speaker 1>the pent up investment psychology of getting rid of zero

0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.800
<v Speaker 1>interest rates really has a long way to go, and

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:53.359
<v Speaker 1>we think that this thesis is going to have to

0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>play out over a number of quarters. It isn't just

0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:59.240
<v Speaker 1>the first hundred days. Um, So you know, it's it's

0:20:59.240 --> 0:21:01.680
<v Speaker 1>really a wait and see mode for markets right now.

0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:04.040
<v Speaker 1>So you give me a sense of your optimism for

0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:07.280
<v Speaker 1>something getting done in Washington. You're reevaluating the timetable here

0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:10.440
<v Speaker 1>or we have a pessimistic are you? I guess we've

0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:14.600
<v Speaker 1>been We've been realistic all along and and and basically,

0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:19.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, the world never repeats itself. But the simple

0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:21.960
<v Speaker 1>fact is is that Ronald Reagan came to office in

0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:27.080
<v Speaker 1>night doubtless intending to do tax reform straight away, and

0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:30.760
<v Speaker 1>he did it, but not until nine six. So you know,

0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:34.359
<v Speaker 1>given the fact that there are divisions within the Republican Party,

0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:37.200
<v Speaker 1>we need to be patient. We need to let things

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:41.840
<v Speaker 1>play out. And obviously, well what do you do? I mean, okay,

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:43.560
<v Speaker 1>that's great, and I get the idea I need to

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:45.960
<v Speaker 1>be patient, But am I going to be patient and

0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:48.479
<v Speaker 1>enjoy a correction or a true bear market on the

0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:52.560
<v Speaker 1>way to being patient? I mean what I learned? And David,

0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:53.840
<v Speaker 1>I was away for a week. I don't know if

0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:58.840
<v Speaker 1>you noticed. People are baffled. People are baffled about like

0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:01.840
<v Speaker 1>what to do. They're not getting a lot of what

0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.880
<v Speaker 1>to do. What is your prescription? Now? Given where valuations

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:08.719
<v Speaker 1>are so so very often, the best thing to do

0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:11.240
<v Speaker 1>in investing, and I think it's it's a lot more

0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 1>of the time than people actually give it credit to

0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.680
<v Speaker 1>is to do nothing. Okay, So in our view, you're

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:21.040
<v Speaker 1>likely started a correction in the beginning of March. The

0:22:21.119 --> 0:22:24.760
<v Speaker 1>market's gone sort of sideways as opposed to selling off

0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:28.320
<v Speaker 1>more vigorously. We think that if the macro breaks a

0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.359
<v Speaker 1>certain way over the next several weeks, and there are

0:22:30.400 --> 0:22:33.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of events coming up, including the potential closure

0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:36.680
<v Speaker 1>of the government on April, the market pulls back more,

0:22:37.040 --> 0:22:39.760
<v Speaker 1>and that's the sort of situation where you need to

0:22:39.800 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 1>be prepared to buy very quickly. This happened to be

0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:44.880
<v Speaker 1>the you know, David, do you have women at your

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:47.800
<v Speaker 1>house that they go to drug stores and just acquire stuff?

0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:54.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, the occasion. So today, looking down, it's something

0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:57.439
<v Speaker 1>from a famous toothpaste company, Like, why the hell did

0:22:57.480 --> 0:23:00.679
<v Speaker 1>we buy this? That toothpaste company? Is trade to get

0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:05.040
<v Speaker 1>a blended twenty seven times earnings pe ratio. Which budget

0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:10.240
<v Speaker 1>is the price or the earnings? Uh, the price budget

0:23:10.280 --> 0:23:13.240
<v Speaker 1>is in the near ternament our view. And that's why

0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:15.560
<v Speaker 1>when we look at the consumer sector and when we

0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 1>look at the market as a whole, you've got to

0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:21.960
<v Speaker 1>be selective at these valuations. And and where there is

0:23:22.080 --> 0:23:27.680
<v Speaker 1>value right now is technology, healthcare and financials. We still

0:23:27.720 --> 0:23:30.440
<v Speaker 1>like the financial story, despite the fact that the yield

0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:32.760
<v Speaker 1>curve flattening over the last Do you see share by

0:23:32.760 --> 0:23:36.200
<v Speaker 1>back and dividend growth just continuing as a blended concept. Well,

0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:39.120
<v Speaker 1>it's it's it's been a part of this entire bowl market.

0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:43.120
<v Speaker 1>We continue to see it. And and look, if there's repatriation,

0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:44.960
<v Speaker 1>you're certainly going to see a lot more of it.

0:23:45.000 --> 0:23:47.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna give you the highest marks for staying in

0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 1>this market. We've gotta go to cash. The world's going

0:23:49.359 --> 0:23:52.879
<v Speaker 1>to die as we know it. And UBS has had

0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:54.399
<v Speaker 1>the courage saying, no, you've got to be in this

0:23:54.480 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 1>market and uh and participate. We do that. At twenty

0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:01.119
<v Speaker 1>tho four fifty three, we're rocky in equities with Julian

0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Emmanuel of UBS, a serious discussion about valuations right now.

0:24:05.160 --> 0:24:07.679
<v Speaker 1>One of the themes through all the surveillance this morning, Julian,

0:24:08.119 --> 0:24:10.360
<v Speaker 1>has been the lack of volatility. The VIX has gone

0:24:10.359 --> 0:24:14.120
<v Speaker 1>from twelve to sixteen. Is that a normal vix right now?

0:24:14.160 --> 0:24:18.000
<v Speaker 1>To see it the historical normals twenty? Ugly'st forty. We're

0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:20.960
<v Speaker 1>not ugly. We're actually pretty complacent. But it's a sixteen

0:24:21.000 --> 0:24:24.320
<v Speaker 1>of sixteen on the vix. No, it's not at all.

0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:28.320
<v Speaker 1>Uh well because again going back to post election, people

0:24:28.800 --> 0:24:31.440
<v Speaker 1>played their thesis. They they got positioned the way they

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 1>wanted and now they're waiting um. And in fact, if

0:24:34.520 --> 0:24:37.679
<v Speaker 1>you look at the flows year to date, the public

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:41.359
<v Speaker 1>really has been the incremental buyer. But another thing has happened.

0:24:41.520 --> 0:24:45.560
<v Speaker 1>Stocks don't move uh similarly to each other on a

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 1>day to day day basis the way they did, and

0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:51.720
<v Speaker 1>this lack of correlation is also driving volatility lower. But

0:24:51.880 --> 0:24:54.160
<v Speaker 1>net net, when you look at the risks, the VIX

0:24:54.280 --> 0:24:56.399
<v Speaker 1>should be higher, and we think it does go higher.

0:24:56.960 --> 0:24:59.960
<v Speaker 1>It's earning season. Now we had some financial supporting last

0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:03.479
<v Speaker 1>a couple more later this week is a theme shaping

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 1>up to the to the quarter earning season. Yeah, well,

0:25:06.320 --> 0:25:10.600
<v Speaker 1>we think that basically because you're at the valuation paradigms

0:25:10.640 --> 0:25:13.600
<v Speaker 1>that that you're at UM that not only are you

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:15.800
<v Speaker 1>going to have to report good earnings, you're going to

0:25:15.880 --> 0:25:18.919
<v Speaker 1>have to beat the number UM, which most companies do

0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 1>quarter in, quarter out, but that number is going to

0:25:21.440 --> 0:25:24.080
<v Speaker 1>have to be good to begin with, and you're going

0:25:24.119 --> 0:25:27.320
<v Speaker 1>to have to be a reasonably valued company because there's

0:25:27.359 --> 0:25:31.760
<v Speaker 1>just at almost twenty times trailer earnings across the broad market.

0:25:32.000 --> 0:25:36.520
<v Speaker 1>There's less room for error given this macro overhang. Let's

0:25:36.520 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 1>talk about that macro overhang. There there is so much happening.

0:25:39.119 --> 0:25:41.920
<v Speaker 1>How do you separate out the real risks from those

0:25:41.920 --> 0:25:47.240
<v Speaker 1>that are distractions? Uh, it's it's definitely challenged, there's no

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:50.040
<v Speaker 1>question about it. And and we're seeing things that we

0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:55.640
<v Speaker 1>haven't seen before. UM, particularly you know, unfolding in geopolitical

0:25:55.680 --> 0:26:00.840
<v Speaker 1>theaters across the world, and frankly, you're in a situation

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 1>where events could go in any number of directions. And

0:26:04.880 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>so for us again, uh, you're seeing the vix actually

0:26:08.080 --> 0:26:10.399
<v Speaker 1>start to pick up the last week or two in

0:26:10.520 --> 0:26:14.159
<v Speaker 1>recognition of that fact, even as people don't make the

0:26:14.200 --> 0:26:17.840
<v Speaker 1>stock market itself more volatile. But there's definitely hedgen going on,

0:26:18.080 --> 0:26:19.680
<v Speaker 1>so you have to be mindful of that. Is there

0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the impulse to hunker down and look purely at fundamentals

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:24.880
<v Speaker 1>or is that something you'd caution against it At this point,

0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:28.879
<v Speaker 1>I think this is a very rare time. We haven't

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:31.400
<v Speaker 1>seen it that often over the course of the last

0:26:31.480 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 1>thirty or forty years. Politics really does move the fundamentals.

0:26:36.280 --> 0:26:39.040
<v Speaker 1>And if you you look it back at politics moving

0:26:39.040 --> 0:26:42.920
<v Speaker 1>the confidence numbers higher, We've seen times throughout history where

0:26:42.960 --> 0:26:47.080
<v Speaker 1>confidence actually causes the economy and a self fulfilling prophecy

0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:49.960
<v Speaker 1>to strengthen. We haven't seen that yet. We're not sure

0:26:49.960 --> 0:26:53.080
<v Speaker 1>it's going to happen, but we do expect incremental strength

0:26:53.200 --> 0:26:55.800
<v Speaker 1>to this debate on the soft data versus hard data,

0:26:55.800 --> 0:26:58.040
<v Speaker 1>and what the soft data you're saying you're not seeing it.

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:00.040
<v Speaker 1>You're you're not seeing the leading value of the this

0:27:00.119 --> 0:27:02.760
<v Speaker 1>off date at this point, it's not there yet. You're

0:27:02.760 --> 0:27:05.840
<v Speaker 1>a hard day to gug. We we like to see

0:27:05.880 --> 0:27:08.240
<v Speaker 1>the facts and and the facts are that the first

0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:11.080
<v Speaker 1>quarter was was quite weak. But on the other hand,

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:13.400
<v Speaker 1>when you look at the FED commentary over the last

0:27:13.400 --> 0:27:17.560
<v Speaker 1>several weeks, the FED doesn't seem to be terribly concerned. Well,

0:27:17.760 --> 0:27:19.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I got all sorts of opinions on this.

0:27:19.920 --> 0:27:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Macroeconomic advisors to St. Louis readjust second quarter call to

0:27:23.720 --> 0:27:27.879
<v Speaker 1>three point six percent? How do you gyrate from zero

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:30.400
<v Speaker 1>point six or zero point eight whatever the number comes

0:27:30.400 --> 0:27:33.720
<v Speaker 1>in out to three point six percent? I mean, when

0:27:33.760 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 1>does the switch? Have you noticed, David, where the switch

0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:38.720
<v Speaker 1>got turned on? Or you know, it's like one of

0:27:38.720 --> 0:27:42.480
<v Speaker 1>those big theater toggle switches, the sparks go off when

0:27:42.480 --> 0:27:47.080
<v Speaker 1>you turn the lights. Part of the where's the toggle switch?

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.360
<v Speaker 1>Part of it is is is the difficulty in measuring

0:27:50.480 --> 0:27:54.119
<v Speaker 1>g d P um And a former colleague of ours

0:27:54.280 --> 0:27:57.600
<v Speaker 1>really made the point that GDP is a very noisy

0:27:57.640 --> 0:28:00.200
<v Speaker 1>indicator and that if you want to get a good

0:28:00.200 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>look at how the economy is moving in a more

0:28:03.640 --> 0:28:06.800
<v Speaker 1>clean basis, there are three things to look at. Bank lending,

0:28:06.880 --> 0:28:10.399
<v Speaker 1>which has been weak as of late, uh I, s

0:28:10.600 --> 0:28:13.320
<v Speaker 1>M S, which really is you know, is something that's

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:16.240
<v Speaker 1>been quite strong, Yes or no? Our conditions going to

0:28:16.240 --> 0:28:21.080
<v Speaker 1>get that hard data that that's that's hard data HARDA. Yes,

0:28:21.160 --> 0:28:23.280
<v Speaker 1>we we consider that to be hard day, even though

0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:26.040
<v Speaker 1>there's an opinion aspect, but it tells you what the

0:28:26.160 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 1>people on the ground are seeing. And the last piece

0:28:28.680 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 1>of hard data that's very important is the weekly job

0:28:33.080 --> 0:28:35.440
<v Speaker 1>hard The hard data right now is the Yankees are

0:28:35.520 --> 0:28:38.920
<v Speaker 1>killing it, killing it in April. That's the hard data.

0:28:39.000 --> 0:28:41.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm a Mets fan, Tom, The Yankees are killing it.

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:44.120
<v Speaker 1>They no one expected. Come on, no one expected the

0:28:44.200 --> 0:28:46.520
<v Speaker 1>Yankees are killed. I mean Michael Barr helped me here.

0:28:46.560 --> 0:28:49.320
<v Speaker 1>The Yankees are you kidding me? They want seven in

0:28:49.360 --> 0:28:53.000
<v Speaker 1>a row in April. That's hard data. Meanwhile, Tiger fans

0:28:53.040 --> 0:28:57.360
<v Speaker 1>over here, Miggy's hurt. It's a mess. No one cares

0:28:57.360 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 1>about the Tigers. Someone get a memo to Michael Barton.

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:02.920
<v Speaker 1>No one cares at all about the Detroit Good morning, Detroit.

0:29:03.000 --> 0:29:05.920
<v Speaker 1>Glad you're listening on Serious Sex Empt Channel one night.

0:29:06.120 --> 0:29:09.080
<v Speaker 1>Julian Emmanuel, thank you so much. You know full. You know,

0:29:09.120 --> 0:29:11.240
<v Speaker 1>not that I would editorialize, but I'm in the Julian

0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 1>Emmanuel camp on hard I'm like, when did the Vogue?

0:29:15.160 --> 0:29:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Where did I ever read about soft data? Hard data? No?

0:29:19.120 --> 0:29:23.040
<v Speaker 1>Let mean, come on, it's it's the function of the times.

0:29:23.200 --> 0:29:27.720
<v Speaker 1>Things are more difficult to measure the Internet. Julian Emmanuel

0:29:27.720 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 1>with Hubius, thank you so much. They're now joining us

0:29:42.720 --> 0:29:45.400
<v Speaker 1>at studying at the University of Maine. He went to

0:29:45.840 --> 0:29:48.520
<v Speaker 1>Delaware and then to San Francisco to lose his main accent.

0:29:48.600 --> 0:29:52.280
<v Speaker 1>Michael Mayo independent bank Analysts, one of the few that

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:55.680
<v Speaker 1>we have on I want to go back to governor incident.

0:29:55.680 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 1>Of course, you made a real splash the Bank of America.

0:29:57.880 --> 0:30:01.040
<v Speaker 1>While back thinking about the Minutia, you have a jaw

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:04.960
<v Speaker 1>dropping fact Toyd in the Michael Mayo research, and that

0:30:05.160 --> 0:30:09.520
<v Speaker 1>is City Group has a peer group different than the

0:30:09.600 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 1>other major banks. A guy like me was thunderstruck by that.

0:30:14.160 --> 0:30:17.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we compare them, and they compare them to

0:30:17.360 --> 0:30:21.320
<v Speaker 1>the same banks, and yet City Group, is this true,

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:26.360
<v Speaker 1>compares itself to the European banks. Am I right? Let

0:30:26.400 --> 0:30:29.360
<v Speaker 1>let's take a step back here, so um, you know,

0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:32.080
<v Speaker 1>I focus a lot on governance as you mentioned, and

0:30:32.080 --> 0:30:34.760
<v Speaker 1>when you look at the large US banks, banks have

0:30:34.840 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 1>been hardwired for safety, they have not been hardwired for

0:30:38.240 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 1>better governance. To Regulators did their job, they did it

0:30:41.200 --> 0:30:44.840
<v Speaker 1>well to make sure banks are safe, but investors need

0:30:44.920 --> 0:30:47.600
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that banks have proper governance. So that

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:50.800
<v Speaker 1>brings up City Group and City Groups annual meeting is

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:53.640
<v Speaker 1>a week from tomorrow. I'm going to the meeting. It's

0:30:53.680 --> 0:30:56.320
<v Speaker 1>that in the East Village of New York City at

0:30:56.320 --> 0:30:59.440
<v Speaker 1>the Cooper Union, and I have ten questions that I

0:30:59.480 --> 0:31:01.600
<v Speaker 1>intend to but you're up in the cheap seats under

0:31:01.600 --> 0:31:04.320
<v Speaker 1>the dunkin donut sign right. Well, I'll line up early

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:08.760
<v Speaker 1>to ask my questions that you will. And certainly one

0:31:08.880 --> 0:31:11.960
<v Speaker 1>one question relates to compensation. And the peer group that

0:31:12.000 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 1>City Group uses for compensation is different than the peer

0:31:15.240 --> 0:31:18.760
<v Speaker 1>group they use for their financial comparisons, and less than

0:31:18.800 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 1>one and ten companies the United States, you know, uses

0:31:21.840 --> 0:31:23.960
<v Speaker 1>that sort of technique, and City Group is the only

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:27.160
<v Speaker 1>large bank to do so. So certainly one question is

0:31:27.240 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 1>on compensation and peer groups. But the more Germaine question

0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:34.920
<v Speaker 1>is why does the CEO letter of City Groups say

0:31:34.960 --> 0:31:37.560
<v Speaker 1>that you know they have so much right? They say

0:31:37.600 --> 0:31:40.640
<v Speaker 1>they're the right model, the right strategy, the right customers,

0:31:40.640 --> 0:31:42.720
<v Speaker 1>the right clients, the right people in the right places.

0:31:43.080 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 1>But then they still have worsting class returns, worst in

0:31:45.640 --> 0:31:49.000
<v Speaker 1>class stock valuation. They missed their prior targets. They push

0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:51.200
<v Speaker 1>their new targets four years out. So that that's my

0:31:51.520 --> 0:31:54.480
<v Speaker 1>most important Mr Corbett attending one of the Trump the

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:59.560
<v Speaker 1>President Trump festivities in Washington. Their chairman is someone everybody

0:31:59.600 --> 0:32:04.200
<v Speaker 1>young Blue Bolas respects Mr Michael O'Neill's legendary within the business.

0:32:04.520 --> 0:32:08.160
<v Speaker 1>If any chairman can write a ship I would respectfully

0:32:08.200 --> 0:32:11.360
<v Speaker 1>suggest it's Mr O'Neill. Explain to us what a chairman

0:32:11.400 --> 0:32:15.680
<v Speaker 1>does at a big bank. Well, not every bank has

0:32:15.920 --> 0:32:18.920
<v Speaker 1>the chairman roles separated from the CEO. In the case

0:32:19.000 --> 0:32:22.040
<v Speaker 1>the City Group, though, chairman Mike O'Neill he's you know,

0:32:22.040 --> 0:32:24.640
<v Speaker 1>he's been a rockstar and banking for decades, so he's

0:32:24.720 --> 0:32:27.040
<v Speaker 1>the right guy at the top of the company. You know.

0:32:27.120 --> 0:32:31.080
<v Speaker 1>One question not explicitly asked, though, is is he being

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.440
<v Speaker 1>too soft on management? So the job of a chairman

0:32:33.800 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 1>is to make sure that um, the board is overseeing

0:32:38.280 --> 0:32:41.240
<v Speaker 1>management properly, to ensure that they have the right strategy

0:32:41.520 --> 0:32:45.080
<v Speaker 1>and ensure that they're being held accountable to executing on

0:32:45.160 --> 0:32:49.160
<v Speaker 1>that strategy. Also, risk control banks is always huge. I

0:32:49.200 --> 0:32:51.840
<v Speaker 1>remember you agitating for more separation of those roles within

0:32:51.960 --> 0:32:54.880
<v Speaker 1>within banks. Is that does that continue to continue to

0:32:54.920 --> 0:32:56.600
<v Speaker 1>push for that? Is? Is it likely to happen at

0:32:56.600 --> 0:32:59.160
<v Speaker 1>other at other banks? Well, one size doesn't fit all.

0:32:59.200 --> 0:33:01.840
<v Speaker 1>Going back to SIT group, I was on your show

0:33:01.920 --> 0:33:05.440
<v Speaker 1>when they had um you know, Dick Parsons of Vicram,

0:33:05.480 --> 0:33:07.600
<v Speaker 1>pad It FOT, I said their names. I didn't like

0:33:07.680 --> 0:33:10.480
<v Speaker 1>that combination. It was separated. On the other hand, you know,

0:33:10.560 --> 0:33:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Jamie Diamond has gotten the job done at JP Morrigan,

0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:16.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, for over a decade now. So I think

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:20.240
<v Speaker 1>if you execute well, you have double digit returns of

0:33:20.480 --> 0:33:24.000
<v Speaker 1>return on equity, and you're controlling your risk properly, then

0:33:24.200 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 1>maybe it's okay. But I think it's situational. You mentioned James.

0:33:28.160 --> 0:33:30.360
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about JP Morgan. They reported last week. Get

0:33:30.400 --> 0:33:33.000
<v Speaker 1>your reaction to to the earnings that we saw from them.

0:33:33.040 --> 0:33:35.240
<v Speaker 1>The respeculation ahead of time here that we wouldn't see

0:33:35.720 --> 0:33:38.800
<v Speaker 1>great growth in in uh the equities trading side of things.

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:42.560
<v Speaker 1>It seemed like they performed better than expected. Well. JP Morrigan.

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:45.760
<v Speaker 1>I still consider them the Lebron James of banking. And

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:49.360
<v Speaker 1>that's because like Lebron James, they have both offense and defense.

0:33:49.680 --> 0:33:51.920
<v Speaker 1>And when it comes to JP Morgan, in the first quarter,

0:33:51.960 --> 0:33:56.480
<v Speaker 1>they certainly had the offense. They had strong capital markets growth,

0:33:56.720 --> 0:34:00.960
<v Speaker 1>that's underwriting and trading and that did really well, and

0:34:00.960 --> 0:34:03.800
<v Speaker 1>they also had some of the best net interest margin improvement.

0:34:03.880 --> 0:34:06.200
<v Speaker 1>Yet on the other hand, the defense side, you know,

0:34:06.320 --> 0:34:09.319
<v Speaker 1>credit costs are still good, but they went up, and

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:11.839
<v Speaker 1>also their expense control wasn't quite as good. A better

0:34:11.880 --> 0:34:14.400
<v Speaker 1>offense this quarter from Jake Morgan the defense. What size

0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:17.000
<v Speaker 1>of a moon shot was co America for? You don't

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:20.560
<v Speaker 1>tell me, you said, load the boat a share? Where

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:23.000
<v Speaker 1>did you get into America and say this is going

0:34:23.040 --> 0:34:26.960
<v Speaker 1>to be a turnaround of turnarounds? Um? Well, you know

0:34:27.320 --> 0:34:29.560
<v Speaker 1>I upgraded America for the first time in over two

0:34:29.600 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 1>decades the stock almost that was early last year. Um

0:34:33.840 --> 0:34:37.680
<v Speaker 1>and and so that. But the reason Camerica is so

0:34:37.760 --> 0:34:41.080
<v Speaker 1>important to me because it shows when you, you know,

0:34:41.120 --> 0:34:44.360
<v Speaker 1>spend energy on this governance and these oversight issues. You know,

0:34:44.400 --> 0:34:47.239
<v Speaker 1>I went to the America annual meeting, so did ten

0:34:47.360 --> 0:34:50.920
<v Speaker 1>other investors, most of whom stood up and said you

0:34:50.960 --> 0:34:53.960
<v Speaker 1>need to do a better job. One month later, America

0:34:54.000 --> 0:34:57.160
<v Speaker 1>announced restructuring. America was the best performing of the thirty

0:34:57.239 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 1>largest banks last year. So when someone says you're checking

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:02.319
<v Speaker 1>a box, you're doing these annual media things for no

0:35:02.440 --> 0:35:05.440
<v Speaker 1>reason wrong, it helps investors. Everybody's we have spent too

0:35:05.520 --> 0:35:07.960
<v Speaker 1>much money in chocolate this weekend. Help me here with

0:35:08.120 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 1>how where's the next America? We spend all our time,

0:35:11.600 --> 0:35:13.520
<v Speaker 1>David and I are is guilty of this as anybody

0:35:13.800 --> 0:35:17.200
<v Speaker 1>talking about four or five big banks. The Comerica is

0:35:17.280 --> 0:35:20.799
<v Speaker 1>under their those twenty five or thirty regional kind of

0:35:20.800 --> 0:35:24.200
<v Speaker 1>big banks. Where's the next America? Well, my thought is

0:35:24.239 --> 0:35:27.440
<v Speaker 1>there's always under performers. There's always banks in the bottom

0:35:27.520 --> 0:35:31.640
<v Speaker 1>half of the bottom quartile. Those are potentially the next America.

0:35:31.800 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 1>So you know, as stocks trade from day to day

0:35:34.000 --> 0:35:36.200
<v Speaker 1>and we get the more earnings reports from big banks,

0:35:36.200 --> 0:35:38.480
<v Speaker 1>so you don't have an identified stock you can share

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:41.239
<v Speaker 1>with us this morning, it's going to be the next America.

0:35:41.680 --> 0:35:44.400
<v Speaker 1>I you know, I can't tell you first, Tom, but

0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:46.000
<v Speaker 1>I can maybe me tell you after I tell a

0:35:46.000 --> 0:35:50.960
<v Speaker 1>few others. You see how we got around there. But

0:35:51.120 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 1>having said that, let me and you want to stock

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:54.600
<v Speaker 1>here at least I figured I have to come on

0:35:54.640 --> 0:35:57.400
<v Speaker 1>the show and give you a stock and so you

0:35:57.400 --> 0:35:59.279
<v Speaker 1>know what I do over the weekend. You know, if

0:35:59.320 --> 0:36:01.279
<v Speaker 1>you do this job long enough is you know I

0:36:01.320 --> 0:36:07.400
<v Speaker 1>read annual reports. The marriage is great, folks. You know

0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:10.480
<v Speaker 1>the bar is high for a bank. Yellow staff fun um.

0:36:10.880 --> 0:36:14.400
<v Speaker 1>But I reread Goldman Sacks and report last night, and

0:36:14.440 --> 0:36:17.440
<v Speaker 1>to say one time to pound your chest. Hey, you

0:36:17.560 --> 0:36:20.440
<v Speaker 1>told us to downsize, but we didn't. At least three

0:36:20.440 --> 0:36:24.719
<v Speaker 1>times in the CEO letter of Goldman Sacks they advertised

0:36:24.719 --> 0:36:27.480
<v Speaker 1>the fact that, you know, we're one of the few

0:36:27.520 --> 0:36:30.400
<v Speaker 1>firms that have remained committed to serving clients a lot

0:36:30.440 --> 0:36:32.640
<v Speaker 1>of areas. Then they go, we did not extrapolate the

0:36:32.640 --> 0:36:35.680
<v Speaker 1>bad conditions. And then they in the last section the

0:36:35.719 --> 0:36:38.600
<v Speaker 1>follow up by Lloyd Blank found and the CEO LETTERY goes,

0:36:38.760 --> 0:36:41.080
<v Speaker 1>in the past decade or so, some of our industry

0:36:41.120 --> 0:36:44.160
<v Speaker 1>pulled back from sales and trading businesses, as to say,

0:36:44.200 --> 0:36:47.320
<v Speaker 1>but we didn't. And then they repeat, and then they

0:36:47.400 --> 0:36:50.640
<v Speaker 1>repeat in the report that like the fourth quarterbacklog was

0:36:50.680 --> 0:36:52.480
<v Speaker 1>good to the story of bank earnings. So far as

0:36:52.640 --> 0:36:55.319
<v Speaker 1>Wall Streets doing well, Main Street is not doing well.

0:36:55.360 --> 0:36:56.880
<v Speaker 1>So I want to own a Wall Street bank like

0:36:56.920 --> 0:36:59.960
<v Speaker 1>Goldman Sack before the report earnings tomorrow. Okay, very good.

0:37:00.160 --> 0:37:03.440
<v Speaker 1>I got twenty seconds left. That's all. Does Gary Cone

0:37:03.520 --> 0:37:06.120
<v Speaker 1>working for the Trump Bank down in Washington want to

0:37:06.120 --> 0:37:08.800
<v Speaker 1>get rid of Glass? Uh? We bring back glass Eagle?

0:37:09.120 --> 0:37:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Will that help Mr blankfind? You know what? Look at

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:17.680
<v Speaker 1>first quarter results? Okay, lending, traditional corporate lending and overall

0:37:17.760 --> 0:37:20.160
<v Speaker 1>learning is the worst in six years. On the other hand,

0:37:20.520 --> 0:37:23.279
<v Speaker 1>debt underwriting, raising, debt and capital markets good. From the

0:37:23.320 --> 0:37:27.000
<v Speaker 1>customer standpoint, Glass de Eagle has been good, evidenced by

0:37:27.040 --> 0:37:29.439
<v Speaker 1>this quarter. Okay, We've run out of time. Never enough

0:37:29.480 --> 0:37:32.279
<v Speaker 1>time with Michael Mayo on the banks as well. He'll

0:37:32.320 --> 0:37:34.279
<v Speaker 1>be at the City. Maybe we'll get him on after

0:37:34.360 --> 0:37:44.640
<v Speaker 1>City banks. See how that goes. Thanks for listening to

0:37:44.680 --> 0:37:50.759
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:37:51.160 --> 0:37:55.440
<v Speaker 1>or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm out on Twitter

0:37:55.520 --> 0:37:59.320
<v Speaker 1>at Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before

0:37:59.320 --> 0:38:03.680
<v Speaker 1>the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio,

0:38:16.160 --> 0:38:19.680
<v Speaker 1>brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch, dedicated to

0:38:19.800 --> 0:38:23.680
<v Speaker 1>bringing our clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges

0:38:23.800 --> 0:38:27.520
<v Speaker 1>of a transforming world. That's the power of global connections.

0:38:27.920 --> 0:38:32.440
<v Speaker 1>Mary Lynch, Pierce, Feeder and Smith Incorporated Member s I

0:38:32.600 --> 0:38:32.880
<v Speaker 1>p C,