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Speaker 1: More memories are made when you're there for live NFL

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Speaker 1: game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster

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Speaker 1: app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at

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Speaker 1: ticketmaster dot com. Slash NFL.

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Speaker 2: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm just about that action boss.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go front of the growing into.

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Speaker 4: I'm sitting. It's a catch to we.

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Speaker 5: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 5: to win.

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Speaker 1: That's in.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pass.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 5: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 5: Week six betting preview. We'll talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers,

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Speaker 5: money line, underdogs, survivor picks, and of course crack open

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Speaker 5: our weekly Sunday six pack of against the spread bets

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Speaker 5: with the help of my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 5: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Congratulations on your Ravens faith.

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Speaker 4: I still have my reputation intact. It wasn't looking good

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Speaker 4: for a while. Took a lot of Ravens drops, but

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Speaker 4: the Steelers did what they do at home. They just

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Speaker 4: kept it. I think I said it was gonna be

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Speaker 4: sixteen thirteen. It was very close to that. So it

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Speaker 4: was nice to get that. Overall shitty week for the pod,

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Speaker 4: we finally had one. We'll have We'll have them every

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Speaker 4: once in a while. I do wish I got the

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Speaker 4: Minnesota over.

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Speaker 3: Let me pick up that.

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Speaker 4: I never see that flag picked up ever. And then

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Speaker 4: you take off your helmet and then there was a

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Speaker 4: legal hands and face and then Jefferson gets hurt. For

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Speaker 4: the last drive. The Chiefs are punning on fourth and

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Speaker 4: one from midfield too because Jefferson was hurt, so that

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Speaker 4: one stung just the shitty weeks. That's that's what it is.

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Speaker 4: It's all about results. So still having a hell of

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Speaker 4: the year, but like when we have good weeks, who cares?

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Speaker 4: Last week was last week. We're on to a what

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Speaker 4: I would call an interesting, an interesting slate. Last week

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Speaker 4: was last week, this week was this week. Next week

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Speaker 4: we'll be next week.

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Speaker 5: We do cover Thursday Night football, so let's get right

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Speaker 5: up into that. And just a reminder for those asking,

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Speaker 5: these episodes always available in full on the Action Network

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Speaker 5: YouTube page Thursday afternoon, so if you prefer the visuals,

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Speaker 5: be sure to check that out. Thursday Night Football, Week six.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: So you got the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 5: Really it's the Enver Broncos because they don't have any

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Speaker 5: d and the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: Ten and a half is the spread. The Chiefs are favored.

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Speaker 3: The total is let me double check because the total

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Speaker 3: has been moving around. The total is forty seven and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 5: Could see some weather, but you know, big spread total

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Speaker 5: going down weather. Kansas City thirteen and twenty seven thirty

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Speaker 5: two against the spread when favored by more than a

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Speaker 5: field goal since early November twenty twenty. That ultimate includes

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Speaker 5: the postseason stuck. You're gonna be on Broncos if I'm correct, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Nothing Bigs Thursday Night. I hate it. And yeah, the

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Speaker 4: Denver defense. And by the way, Denver's lost fifteen in

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Speaker 4: a row to the Chiefs, which is just insane. The

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Speaker 4: last quarterback, the last quarterback to beat Kansas City in

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Speaker 4: a Broncos uniform, Simy man.

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Speaker 5: I thought maybe we get to get it like a

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Speaker 5: Simi and when the Chiefs are still bad.

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Speaker 3: But I guess that didn't overlap.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Broncos defense. They're allowing a passer rating of

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Speaker 4: one twenty four to six through five games, fifth highest

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Speaker 4: super Boyer opponent completion percentage seventy seven point three highest

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Speaker 4: ever through five games. They've allowed one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 4: one points, tied for the second most through five games

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Speaker 4: in the Super Bowler. They're allowing thirty over thirty six points

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Speaker 4: per game. That's the most in the NFL, the first

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Speaker 4: team since the twenty twenty Cowboys to allow thirty five

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Speaker 4: plus points per game entering their sixth game or later.

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Speaker 4: Eight teams have played a game with this bat of

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Speaker 4: a defense in the six game or later. The last

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Speaker 4: twenty years, they are six and two against the spread. Look,

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Speaker 4: and I don't even mention the run defense issues, like

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Speaker 4: they can't step the run either, and they have some injuries.

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Speaker 4: It's just a bad defense. It's a bad scheme defense.

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Speaker 4: The personnel isn't great. That said, I think that this

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Speaker 4: line is a bit too high. I mean, I'm closer

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Speaker 4: to nine. Then you're throw in like the weather, which

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Speaker 4: is going to adversely impact the Chiefs more so than

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Speaker 4: the Broncos. And the Chiefs offense is still a little

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Speaker 4: They're still figuring some things out, even though they're hit

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Speaker 4: on a historic pace for third and longs. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the conversion rate is the highest in NFL history at

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Speaker 4: the season ended today. And like the third place team

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Speaker 4: in the fifth place team in the rankings were the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs of the last couple of years. But their offense isn't

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Speaker 4: as good as it's been and Mahome has gotten away

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Speaker 4: with a couple turnover worthy throws. Kelsey might be a

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Speaker 4: little banged up or limited here. You know, there's injuries

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Speaker 4: on the defensive side of the ball for Kansas City,

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Speaker 4: and you can still run on the Chiefs, and I

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Speaker 4: think that's what the Broncos are going to do here.

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Speaker 4: They are going to just try to try to grind

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Speaker 4: this game down. You get Javonte Williams back this week,

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Speaker 4: which makes a game plan more conducive to hey, let's

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Speaker 4: just run at Kansas City. So I think this is

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Speaker 4: bread is too high, and we've seen the Chiefs flop

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Speaker 4: as you know, double digit favorites really bigger over a touchdown,

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Speaker 4: but they still know how to run the clock down,

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Speaker 4: like we saw against the Jets, better than any team

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Speaker 4: in the NFL. This is a good Bilow spot on

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Speaker 4: the Broncos, who I believe haven't covered a game all year.

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Speaker 4: Divisional dog catching double digits in weather very enticing for

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Speaker 4: what it's worth. Double digit dogs this early in the season,

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Speaker 4: so Week six or earlier, fifty one, thirty and four

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Speaker 4: against the spread over the past twenty years. So I

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Speaker 4: think Denver's the play. It's scary with Mahomes and even

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Speaker 4: if they just hand it off a lot, they could

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Speaker 4: still carve up this Denver d. But I think this

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Speaker 4: spreads a little too hot, So all a small play

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Speaker 4: on the Broncos.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the right side gonna stay away. I just

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Speaker 5: don't enjoy betting Thursday night football. I just maybe it's

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Speaker 5: kind of like the one day I when I'm watching

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Speaker 5: football where I'm really not sweating anything. Weird things happened

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Speaker 5: as we saw last week with the Bears. Just what

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Speaker 5: can I a juggernaut on offense?

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Speaker 3: But I do agree.

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Speaker 5: I think the Broncos have to play here, and there's

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Speaker 5: gonna be quite a few plays like this this week

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Speaker 5: where it's just what do you always like to say?

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Speaker 3: Catch the fallen knife? This is one of them.

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Speaker 5: I totally agree with the side and I'll be rooting

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Speaker 5: for you the end. Speaking of Thursday night, remember that

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Speaker 5: you can find me, Sean Kerner and lots of other

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Speaker 5: Action personalities and experts on the Action Network Discord Server,

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Speaker 5: especially during Thursday night football. Great place to get prop

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Speaker 5: bets directly from Sean and I just just to chat

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Speaker 5: if you want, you know, sweating big games, looking a

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Speaker 5: live bet.

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Speaker 3: It's totally free, so to join, all you need.

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Speaker 5: Is an invitation, wink and the Discord app So if

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Speaker 5: you're interested, check.

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Speaker 3: Out the link in the episode description.

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Speaker 5: I was in there chopping it up a little bit

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Speaker 5: last Thursday, so that was fun. So shout out to

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Speaker 5: everybody on the discord, and yeah, be sure to check

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Speaker 5: out the Wink if you want to get in there.

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Speaker 5: But now it is time for the week number six

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Speaker 5: Sunday six.

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Speaker 2: Back Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: Stuck Yeah rough week twenty one eight meters.

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Speaker 5: Two points for the first pick, one for the third,

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Speaker 5: one for the total another if you sleep, you're up

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Speaker 5: first this week.

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Speaker 3: Where are you going?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 4: For my first pick of the week six Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals minus two and a half.

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Speaker 4: I like this up to three, but I prefer a

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Speaker 4: minus two and a half, which I would buy up

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Speaker 4: to minus one twenty Here, I saw what I needed

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Speaker 4: to see last week from Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 3: The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back.

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Speaker 4: And there's two factors here. One coming into the season.

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Speaker 4: Just like the past two seasons, we've seen Burrow miss

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Speaker 4: time in the preseason, and we know that it takes

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Speaker 4: him some time to get his timing right to get

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Speaker 4: in the flow of the offense. I've been waiting to

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Speaker 4: see that happen. I saw that last week number two.

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Speaker 4: He's had an injury that has completely limited him as

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Speaker 4: a passer. Not only could he not make a lot

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Speaker 4: of throws, he couldn't move around in the pocket, and

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Speaker 4: then he wasn't going through his progressions because he knew

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Speaker 4: that he couldn't move in the pocket, so he was

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Speaker 4: just looking at someone looking somewhere else throwing it, and

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Speaker 4: then he couldn't even plan well. Last week that all changed.

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Speaker 4: Couple throws to the outside when he has to kind

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Speaker 4: of open up that he kind of left a little

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Speaker 4: bit short. But other than that, I mean, if you

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Speaker 4: look at all the touchdowns last week, he was him

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Speaker 4: evading pressure, he was moving around, he was scrambling, he

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Speaker 4: was going through his progressions. The timing looked right, and

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Speaker 4: he looked like the old Joe Burrow. And now you

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Speaker 4: get another week, so I think that he's only going

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Speaker 4: to keep progressing, getting that timing down. Calf gets healthier,

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Speaker 4: he gets more confident, he's getting more flow into the offense,

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Speaker 4: which I thought was actually just better overall, just feed chases.

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Speaker 4: As he said, I'm always fucking open the play action

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Speaker 4: I thought was better. So but I still think you're

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Speaker 4: getting a discount on this Bengals team because of how

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Speaker 4: they started, because of how Burrow has looked, you know

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Speaker 4: you're getting them under a field goal at home against Seattle.

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Speaker 4: I'm sorry, I'm not buying into the Seahawks. I wasn't

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Speaker 4: coming into the season, and you know, wins over the

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Speaker 4: Panthers and Giants aren't going to change that. I still

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Speaker 4: think there's holes on this defense. They're not going to

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Speaker 4: get pressure on Barrow either. Their pressure numbers are inflated

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Speaker 4: because the Giants just didn't block anybody. This isn't a

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Speaker 4: defense that gets a ton of pressure. So Burrow is

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Speaker 4: going to be able to operate, and he looked more

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Speaker 4: mobile last week, so I think you're getting Sincy cheap here.

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Speaker 4: You also might get Tee Higgins back, which would help

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Speaker 4: a Woozier might return. But I've been impressed with some

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Speaker 4: of the other secondary are the defensive backs on Cincinnati.

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Speaker 4: DJ Turner looks like he could be a player. This

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Speaker 4: defensive line should have an advantage over the Seahawks offensive line,

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Speaker 4: and ultimately I just trust the Bengals at home against

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Speaker 4: the Seahawks. Better quarterback, home field advantage, better defensive line.

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Speaker 4: I'm ready to sell the Seattle team, ready to buy

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Speaker 4: Cincinnati for the time being. So I like the Bengals

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Speaker 4: here at under a field goal in a desperation spot

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Speaker 4: to get to back to five hundred.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Bengals or nothing here.

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Speaker 5: I'm surprised the Lion actually moved off to three. I

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Speaker 5: guess some money's coming in on on Seattle. I don't

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Speaker 5: I'm not down on theat or anything. I think Seattle's

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Speaker 5: pretty solid, but I do agree. I think that the

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Speaker 5: market is still probably factoring in the hurt Bengals offense

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Speaker 5: a little too much, because I mean it was night

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Speaker 5: and day. I mean they put up three six points

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Speaker 5: combined in their first two road games. You know that

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Speaker 5: that's just obviously something was wrong there.

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Speaker 4: And just like the past two seasons, his he was

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Speaker 4: just off and it takes him a couple of weeks,

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Speaker 4: just like last year. You know, they lost to Cooper Rush,

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Speaker 4: they lost some bad quarterbacks, and then they went on

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Speaker 4: this huge run starting right around this time.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Cincinnati against the spread with Joe Burrow, when the

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Speaker 5: opponent is allowing more than nineteen points a game, Burrow's

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Speaker 5: eighteen three and one against the spread, So against like

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Speaker 5: any normal defense, I mean, it's just been almost an

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Speaker 5: automatic and if he's help basically.

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Speaker 4: Outside of the division the Burrows seventeen and four straight

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Speaker 4: up outside of the division. I'll trust the Bengals to

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Speaker 4: get it done. By the way, someone who could have

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Speaker 4: a really big impact on this game that doesn't get

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Speaker 4: talked about enough. We talk about you know, Lot and Parsons,

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Speaker 4: even Crosby, but Trey Henderson is playing out of his

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Speaker 4: mind right now. He is an absolute menace and he

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Speaker 4: deserves to be in that conversation for you know, the

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Speaker 4: top edge rushers in the NFL, and just doesn't get

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Speaker 4: that credit. He has six sacks on the air, should

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Speaker 4: have nine hit three called back because of penalties on

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Speaker 4: you know, like legal contact stuff. I had nothing to

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Speaker 4: do with the with his sacks, so you should have

259
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Speaker 4: nine sacks so far this season. He's playing out of

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Speaker 4: his mind and he could get that Seattle offensive line

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Speaker 4: a load of trouble.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 5: For my first pick, the second overall of the week

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Speaker 5: six Sunday six pack, gotta go with the best team

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Speaker 5: in football right now. Obviously the New England Patriots plus

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Speaker 5: three at the Las Vegas Raiders.

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Speaker 4: Fellas, I am sick of this, Okay, it's a joke.

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Speaker 5: I joke, obviously, but this is I think a classic

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Speaker 5: bi low so high, and it doesn't get much lower

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Speaker 5: than the Patriots coming off two games where they got

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Speaker 5: beat by thirty plus I believe to Belichick's two worst

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Speaker 5: losses now.

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Speaker 4: In his career two to three come back in the

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Speaker 4: last two games.

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Speaker 5: Right, So I think you're gonna get obviously a great

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Speaker 5: effort from New England, and I think New England is

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Speaker 5: still the better team here. And I know it sounds crazy,

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Speaker 5: you know, because after what we've seen the last couple

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Speaker 5: of weeks. But you look at this New England team

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Speaker 5: and okay, you know, they come into the air, they

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Speaker 5: play tough against Philly, they play tough against Miami and

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Speaker 5: h and then they beat the Jets in a game

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Speaker 5: where no one had any offense. But and then you know,

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Speaker 5: the injuries start piling up. Thing you know, Matt Jones

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Speaker 5: starts throwing pick sixes, which I think was a big issue.

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Speaker 5: But that's not gonna happen every week. Uh, you have

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Speaker 5: a coaching advantage here. The spot is amazing. Dogs off

288
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Speaker 5: shutouts forty four to twenty six against the spread sixty

289
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Speaker 5: three percent since two thousand and five. Road Dogs off

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Speaker 5: a loss of twenty or more fifty and twenty six

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Speaker 5: sixty six percent against the spread. Over the last five years,

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Speaker 5: Belichick off a double digit loss twenty five to nine

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Speaker 5: and one against the spread seventy four percent, covering by

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Speaker 5: five point four points a game, including nine six and

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Speaker 5: one sixty percent without Brady UH and four to two

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Speaker 5: and one sixty seven percent with Mac Jones specifically. Uh.

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Speaker 3: You look at the defenses.

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Speaker 5: New England's face, Philly great defense, very highly talented front.

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Speaker 5: Jets great defense, UH, talent all over the place. Dallas

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Speaker 5: great defense, talent all over the place. New Orleans another

301
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Speaker 5: defense that's been great. They hardly ever give up twenty

302
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Speaker 5: unless Derek Carr is just handing the other team the ball.

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Speaker 5: And you know, plus Territory and then even Miami and

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Speaker 5: then probably a little have been inflated because of they

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Speaker 5: played the Giants, because Miami is not a good defense.

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Speaker 5: But Miami's up to third in pressure rate. One of

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Speaker 5: the weaknesses of the Patriots is.

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Speaker 3: They're O line.

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Speaker 5: So it's been a tough, tough slate for New England.

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Speaker 5: But now you get the Raiders. They've been one of

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Speaker 5: the worst defenses in the league for two decades. I

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Speaker 5: think the last time they finished above average in points

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Speaker 5: allowed was two I want to say, or somewhere in

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Speaker 5: the early two thousands. They're twenty fourth and Dvoa their

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Speaker 5: thirtieth in pressure rate, which is big. Like I said,

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Speaker 5: mac Jones not gonna keep throwing pick sixes every single week.

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Speaker 2: Iss.

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Speaker 5: You know, interceptions are highly volatile. They only happen on

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Speaker 5: average about two and a half percent of pass attempts,

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Speaker 5: and a pick six is you know, even much more

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Speaker 5: rare than that. So you look at his Patriots team, well,

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Speaker 5: what's been going on with them?

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Speaker 3: Especially when these.

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Speaker 5: All here really horrible Turnoverlook ten giveaways, just two takeaways,

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Speaker 5: no takeaways since week two. Now you're playing the Raiders,

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Speaker 5: and granted, turnovers are volatile, but I think that works

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Speaker 5: in the Patriots favor more here because like I said,

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Speaker 5: Matt Jones is gonna be you know, he's not gonna

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Speaker 5: take as many chances, probably, but that doesn't matter in

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Speaker 5: a defense we can beat through the air or on

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Speaker 5: the ground like the Raiders. If there is a team

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Speaker 5: that's gonna switch around your turnoverlook, this Raider team, you

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Speaker 5: have Garoppolo with more seven picks in four starts for Garoppolo.

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Speaker 3: New England's still the better team.

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Speaker 5: Even after getting blown out seventy two to three over

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Speaker 5: the last two weeks. New England is still the better

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Speaker 5: team in DVA by six percent over the Raiders. There's

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Speaker 5: a lot of familiarity here, which I think works in

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Speaker 5: the underdogs favor. H You know pat they know Patrick Graham,

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Speaker 5: they know Jimmy Garoppolo to name a few. So obviously

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Speaker 5: the head coach of the Raiders, Josh mc daniels, who,

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Speaker 5: by the way, you know, has been just losing the

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Speaker 5: Raiders like tangible win probability, like we getting weak out.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you talk about the Pittsburgh game, not not

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Speaker 5: going for the touchdown, kicking the field goal.

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Speaker 3: You talk about last week when he what do they do?

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Speaker 5: They then they kick, they kick again instead of you know,

348
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Speaker 5: trying to end.

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Speaker 3: The game and going for I mean, it's just weak

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Speaker 3: in week out.

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Speaker 5: You know, this guy is losing his team games, whereas

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Speaker 5: the Patriots issue is more they're just behind the eight ball.

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Speaker 3: Their offense is not very good. It's been neglected.

354
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Speaker 5: But in a matchup like this against the bad defense,

355
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Speaker 5: bounce back spot.

356
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Speaker 3: Give me the disgusting. I mean, is this I mean,

357
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Speaker 3: this is catch the New England falling knife.

358
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Speaker 4: Give me. That's the theme of this of this episode.

359
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 4: And yeah, when we when a lot of these trends

360
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Speaker 4: that we mentioned, it's just a way to kind of

361
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Speaker 4: contextualize buying low and selling another one to throw out

362
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Speaker 4: there teams who lost by twenty plus points or more

363
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Speaker 4: in their previous game against teams coming off a night

364
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Speaker 4: game and by the way, short week here those teams

365
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Speaker 4: coming off a night game playing against the team who

366
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Speaker 4: lost by twenty plus the previous game sixty four one

367
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 4: oh three and five against the spread since nineteen ninety

368
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,439
Speaker 4: thirty eight percent also applies to the forty nine ers

369
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Speaker 4: towards Worth. We'll talk about that game later. This is

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Speaker 4: the spot, it is the play. I'm but I'm really

371
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Speaker 4: concerned about the Patriots. I mean, do these Belichick spots

372
00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 4: even apply anymore? Like number one? The special teams are

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00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 4: at eight lster a disaster, which is just a reflection

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Speaker 4: on coaching. The offense is it might be beyond repair.

375
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Speaker 4: I mean, the offensive line is bad, they can't pass protect,

376
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,360
Speaker 4: the play calling is bad, the receivers are horrendous. There's

377
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 4: no separation. The route running is terrible. I don't know

378
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,320
Speaker 4: what Troy Brown is doing. Like they just have all

379
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Speaker 4: these like legacy Patriots guys on the staff.

380
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Speaker 5: I don't like bro Troy Brown has he got to

381
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 5: be a bad Wie receiver.

382
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Speaker 3: Scal right, he's just gotta bell.

383
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Speaker 4: And then they got rid of Jacobe Myers.

384
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Speaker 5: Jacoby he's like he's like actually cutting.

385
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Speaker 4: Into mac Jones liked to have like chemistry with because

386
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Speaker 4: he's good. Yes, yes, Juju Smith Schuster is not is

387
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Speaker 4: I mean he's probably not Eve gonna play. He's like

388
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 4: running the laziest routes. Devonte Parker doesn't get any separation

389
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 4: where he's a dinosaur. I'm just afraid Dead's like the

390
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,920
Speaker 4: is the locker room gone with Matt Max Jones. I

391
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,159
Speaker 4: mean he threw that pick six. Like see, there's guys

392
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Speaker 4: that even though their captains were throwing him under the

393
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 4: bus and the boat like the In the interviews after

394
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Speaker 4: the game, David Andrews Hunter Henry were like, I mean

395
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 4: you said you weren't going to throw make turners anymore.

396
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 4: Like they're putting their hands up in the air, so

397
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 4: it's a bad situation. And then like the funny thing

398
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 4: is everyone just blamed Patricia last year, but Jones just

399
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 4: now looks like he looked decent early in the year.

400
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 4: He looks broken. He looks like he has no feel,

401
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 4: he has happy feeding. He's not seeing anything. The receivers

402
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 4: are bad. I also would look at the under here

403
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 4: because the Raiders just don't give up exposed to plays.

404
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 4: I think the Patriots defense will show up and the Patriots,

405
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 4: I think they're just gonna like play really conservative kids

406
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 4: gloves with Mac Jones.

407
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Speaker 5: But yeah, this is the spot with the Patriots, and

408
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,359
Speaker 5: real quick for those wondering, it's it's very rare that

409
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 5: a team scores three or fewer points in back to

410
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 5: back games. Only happened eight times over the past two decades.

411
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:20,119
Speaker 5: In the next game, they are seven and one against

412
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 5: the spread. If you if you go up to six

413
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 5: points a few in each of the last two games,

414
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Speaker 5: then you're looking at twenty three and eleven sixty eight

415
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 5: percent against the spread, covering by three point eight points

416
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,640
Speaker 5: a game. So yeah, so I do think the Patriots

417
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 5: offense will go back to just looking underwhelming and not

418
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:37,479
Speaker 5: completely broken.

419
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,199
Speaker 4: All right, speaking of catching a falling knife for my

420
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 4: second pick and third overall the week six Sunday six pack,

421
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus thirteen and a

422
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 4: half against the high powered Miami Dolphins. This I'm gonna

423
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 4: catch the phone out. I think it's the bottom of

424
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 4: the market on the Panthers, who haven't won a game yet.

425
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Speaker 4: This is the time of the year where you're gonna

426
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 4: get value in these I mean, this is the Panthers team.

427
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 4: The Dolphins was just laying thirteen to the Giants, who

428
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 4: were missing their entire team, their entire offensive line. They're

429
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 4: running back. Now you're getting thirteen. By the way, it

430
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 4: doesn't matter for this. I'm waiting to see it for

431
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 4: fourteen pops. Last week, it wasn't as bad as the

432
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 4: final score looked. The Panthers turned it over three times.

433
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 4: Bryce Young maybe got some confidence late in the game,

434
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 4: but the Panthers were playing with how three starters in

435
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,919
Speaker 4: the secondary. I mean, the guys they had out in

436
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 4: the secondary last week was a joke. The Horn was out,

437
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 4: Xavier Woods was out, Dante Jackson was out. Dante Jackson

438
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 4: full participant today. He will play this week, which is big,

439
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 4: Just like he got guys like DeShawn Jamison out there,

440
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 4: starting on the outside at corner. The run defense has

441
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 4: been really weak, worse than the NFL, and there's some

442
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 4: injuries on the offensive line. It's not a pretty situation

443
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 4: for a winless team. I'm not gonna sit here and

444
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 4: tell you good things about the Panthers. I will say that,

445
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 4: you know, and the run he's been bad. At least

446
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 4: h won't play for the Dolphins. He's out so explosive.

447
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 4: The Dolphins should still get their points here. But here's

448
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 4: the thing. Laying this number and it's not a great spot.

449
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 4: There's gonna be some win too, and that will hurt

450
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 4: Miami much more than it will Carolina, who I think

451
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 4: will probably try to make this just grind this game down.

452
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 4: They're gonna run the ball a lot you can run

453
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 4: on Miami. These two teams are tied for the second

454
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 4: worst defensive success rate in the league. Miami is not

455
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 4: a good defense, so laying this type of number is

456
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 4: is just difficult to cover. And I think that they're

457
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 4: at the peak of their market. Iyy. They covered again

458
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 4: last week. The Panthers are winless, no one wants to

459
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 4: back them, and now you're getting close to two touchdowns.

460
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 4: This is the time they try and catch the falling night.

461
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 4: For what it's worth. Winless road dogs catching more than

462
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 4: ten in games six or later of the season twenty

463
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 4: six and eight against the spread over the past twenty years.

464
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 4: That's seventy six point five percent. Also, game six or later,

465
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 4: teams averaging thirty five points per game or more facing

466
00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 4: a team averaging less than twenty are twenty thirty eight

467
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 4: and four against the spread over the past twenty years.

468
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 4: So this just shows you how many times that happened,

469
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: where this team's averaging over thirty five teams averaging under

470
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 4: twenty saying, who wants to back this dog? Well, usually

471
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 4: this is when you get value and the market gets

472
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 4: a little inflated, and you know offenses are going to

473
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 4: come back down to earth, You're gonna have adjustments that

474
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 4: Carolina has a really good defensive coordinator. Yeah, I think

475
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 4: this is just the time to buy it, you know,

476
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 4: speaking to this overvalue selling high from Week five on

477
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 4: teams who are covering by five points per game on average,

478
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 4: and that's the Bills and the Dolphins facing a team

479
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 4: with a two fifty win percentage or less, there's sixty five,

480
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 4: one oh nine and five against the spread against shows

481
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 4: you all these spots. No one wants to back the

482
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: dog here, and that's why you're getting a little extra value.

483
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 4: So this number is just too high for Miami. Team

484
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 4: in a bad spot with weather, you know, Philly on deck,

485
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 4: Carolina desperate winless. I think that they can do enough

486
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 4: either early or late if needed, to get in the

487
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 4: back door. We finally buy Carolina for the first time

488
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 4: on this podcast this season.

489
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'm you know how low I am on Carolina,

490
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 5: and I'm very tempted. I think I really do love

491
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 5: the Panthers this week. I think one thing going a

492
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 5: little under underrated is that this Dolphin offense obviously great

493
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 5: cod and that that does worry me. The coaching mismatch

494
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 5: between Reich and McDaniel, But this Dolphin offense, as much

495
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,959
Speaker 5: of a juggernaut as it's been hn is a massive loss.

496
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 5: He touched the ball forty seven times this year.

497
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 4: He just goes for thirty yards every time.

498
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 5: He's averaging eleven point two yards of touch. Who hit

499
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,479
Speaker 5: seven touchdowns on forty seven touches. That so like, this

500
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 5: Dolphin's offense is great without him, but it's like otherworldly

501
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 5: with him.

502
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 4: Something else you have to consider. This doesn't have to

503
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 4: do with selling high, but in these spots where you're playing,

504
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 4: you know, these really good teams and really good offenses

505
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 4: in particular, are facing inferior teams, especially with a big

506
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 4: game on deck. You see this with the Chiefs a

507
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 4: lot too. There's no reason to show a ton right,

508
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 4: There's no reason to show your plays, show your different

509
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 4: types of motion. You have the Eagles next week. The

510
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: more you put your offense on tape, like, the more

511
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 4: ammo teams have to come up with counters to your offense.

512
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 4: So you could see the Dolphins just all right, let's

513
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 4: just run the ball, you know in the second half,

514
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 4: once they get up you know, fourteen to seventeen points.

515
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 4: You know, then that leads the back door wide open.

516
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 4: There's no reason to reveal everything in your playbook when

517
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 4: you're gonna win regardless.

518
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 5: Anytime you have teams that are win with too against

519
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 5: the spread straight up, starting in week six, back them

520
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 5: every week like they almost always cover you know this

521
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 5: week next week, you don't.

522
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 3: Go too much further than Week six or seven.

523
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 5: Panthers other side for my second pick, the fourth overall

524
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 5: of the Week six Sunday six pack I'm going with

525
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 5: the Minnesota Vikings minus two and a half at the

526
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 5: Chicago Bears. I think this is another spot where, first

527
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 5: of all, I think the Bears are It doesn't get

528
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 5: much higher than Justin Field's throwing for over six hundred

529
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 5: yards and eight touchdowns over the past two weeks. You

530
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 5: have fields not leading the NFL and touchdown rate. So

531
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 5: selling this Bears team with a rare Vikings play as

532
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 5: a favorite. But it's kind of a bylaw in Minnesota

533
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 5: in the sense that they're one and four and they

534
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 5: just lost Justin Jefferson, so everyone's down on them. It's

535
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,719
Speaker 5: the public, you know, more bets and money coming in

536
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 5: on the Bears here, you know, not even getting the

537
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 5: three at the two and a half. But I look

538
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 5: at this Minnesota team and obviously Justin and Justin Jefferson's massive,

539
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 5: massive loss. But if there's ever a team, there's two

540
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 5: teams that it wouldn't matter as much against.

541
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: It's Chicago and Denver.

542
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 5: And Chicago is the Vikings opponent here thirty first in

543
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 5: both DVA and EPA against the pass and twenty six

544
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 5: in pressure rate, so they're not getting pressure, uh, not

545
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 5: playing great pass defense. This is this is a bad defense.

546
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 5: But Minnesota can also go run heavier in this spot.

547
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 5: You know, their offensive line is actually blocking well against

548
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 5: the run. They have the best PFF run blocking grade.

549
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 5: And I think their run game is gonna start to

550
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 5: improve a little bit because they're working in cam akers

551
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 5: more and a small sample. But acres. You know, Madison

552
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 5: his success rate forty eight percent acres in the time

553
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 5: he's been at Minnesota. And you know McVeigh switched his

554
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 5: scheme up in LA and O'Connor is still kind of

555
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 5: running the old scheme.

556
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 3: So that's why they said acres over here.

557
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 5: Acors has a sixty percent success rate already twelve percent

558
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 5: higher than Madison.

559
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 3: Uh.

560
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 5: And you know that you started to see a snaps

561
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 5: go up last week the first week they kind of

562
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 5: worked them in. Last week it was about, you know,

563
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 5: once every other you know, third drive. This week, I mean,

564
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 5: I think it could be closer to fifty to fifty.

565
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 5: Chicago's also bad run defense, and then you have the turnover.

566
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 5: Look Minnesota twelve turnovers thirty first and they only have

567
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 5: three takeaways. That's twenty ninth, So I think that'll even

568
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 5: out the Bears, you know, justin fields I know he

569
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 5: has his eight touchdowns against two bad defenses over the

570
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 5: last couple of weeks. But if there's anyone that's going

571
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 5: to help your turnover, look, I think the Bears are

572
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 5: at or near the top of the list. They have

573
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 5: multiple turnovers in every game until that Thursday game where

574
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 5: they just called Washington sleeping for a half. You know

575
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 5: it happens, especially on Thursday night. So I like this

576
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 5: Minnesota team. I think they're a better team. I think

577
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 5: this should be at least the field goal getting under

578
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 5: a field goal here, So selling this Bear team high

579
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 5: for a Minnesota team that I still think is much better,

580
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 5: even though you know we came in the years wanted

581
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 5: to fade him too, But I think we'll still be

582
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 5: able to throw in this specific matchup.

583
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 4: Look, neither of you might not be able to throw

584
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 4: much because of the weather. This is a sneaky under

585
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 4: that I like. It's crossed over forty five down to

586
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: forty four and a half. But I and I swore off.

587
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 4: These two defenses are horrendous. Bears have gone over every

588
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 4: game this year, but divisional game outdoors with weather, a

589
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 4: lot of wind. There's no Jefferson who I have we're

590
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 4: worth like one and a half points to the spread.

591
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 4: This could be more of a running game. I think

592
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 4: the Vikings would have more success in that case because

593
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 4: the Bears Herbert is out Johnson has a concussion. For

594
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 4: what it's worth, when two teams allowed twenty four points

595
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 4: per game or more, the Unders fifty four to thirty

596
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 4: two the last three seasons, sixty three percent. It also

597
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: applies to Miami Carolina, but yeah, rain and win divisional game.

598
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: Bears could get some reinforcements in the secondary. But I

599
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 4: think this, as to your point, comes down to a

600
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 4: running game. I'd favor Minnesota so under a field goal,

601
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 4: even with the Bears having extra s, I think Minnesota's aside,

602
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 4: So I agree with you there. For my third pick

603
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: in the sixth overall the week six Sunday six pack,

604
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: we're gonna catch our attempt to catch another falling knife,

605
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 4: I'm going with the New York Giants plus fourteen at

606
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 4: the Buffalo Bills. This is horrendous, I hate it, but

607
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 4: this is I think this is the time to buy

608
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 4: the Giants. We haven't covered all year, by the way,

609
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 4: for it is where teams that have yet to cover

610
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 4: in game six or beyond as an underdog sixty eight

611
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: percent against the spread historically five and one as a

612
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,719
Speaker 4: double digit underdog. They won three of those six outright

613
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 4: just shocking results if you go back and look for wait,

614
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 4: how did that team win? So speaking of the buying

615
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 4: low double digit dogs and back to back games, as

616
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 4: if the Giants were, you know, catching thirteen at Miami

617
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 4: last week, sixty eight forty two and three against the

618
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 4: spread the last twenty years, and the second leg when

619
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 4: they don't cover the first leg, as the Giants didn't

620
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 4: do forty six twenty three and one against the spread,

621
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 4: So that speaks to, hey, we have a bad team

622
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 4: catching double digits.

623
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: They didn't cover.

624
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 4: So everyone who either cash on the favorite is going

625
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 4: to go do it again or whoever backed the dog

626
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 4: they don't want any part of that stinky dog again,

627
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 4: and then you're gonna get it like, look, the Giants

628
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 4: were catching thirteen at Miami, now they're catching fourteen in Buffalo.

629
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 4: Buffalo is a colled points better than Miami. They were

630
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 4: just a favored by a field goal at home. That's

631
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 4: the inflation here. I know there's quarterback concertainty. From what

632
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 4: I've heard, Danielson's gonna play. It didn't practice day, but

633
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 4: it was just soreness. And you're gonna get Sakuon Barkley back.

634
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 4: Not only are they catching fourteen at the Bills, Bills

635
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 4: are coming back from overseas and they lost three All

636
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 4: Pro caliber defensive starters. Daycon Jones was playing out of

637
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 4: his mind. I think he leads all defensive tackles in

638
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 4: past block win Ray. He lost an All Pro corner

639
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 4: and then an All Pro linebacker who was so important

640
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 4: to everything that you do. And now we're getting two touchdowns,

641
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 4: which is such a hard number to cover in the NFL.

642
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 4: The other factor here is the Dable factor. I think

643
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 4: that they should just bring in Max like two tight ends.

644
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 4: You need to run Barkley. They don't have any running games,

645
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 4: so Barkley at least will provide a spark there. I

646
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 4: think this is the time to buy the Giants. Dable's

647
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 4: so familiar with everything that this Bills team wants to

648
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 4: do on both sides of the ball. Just to show

649
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 4: you how hard it is to cover these numbers. The

650
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 4: Giants lost by eighteen at San Francisco, and they had

651
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 4: a bunch of stars out. We we see what schamprus

652
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 4: is doing everyone. They were out gained by like four

653
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 4: hundred yards. Last week they were a game out game

654
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 4: by three hundred dards. They lost play sixteen. They get

655
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 4: chances to cover both games and they were absolutely destroyed.

656
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 4: It's just very difficult to cover. And it's it's just

657
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 4: a tough spot for the Bills coming back from London.

658
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 4: And you know, the Giants just everyone has written them off.

659
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 4: It's Dabel's going up against his old team. I think

660
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 4: they're gonna have some changes, Like they're even talking about

661
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 4: bringing in some new offensive line because last week they

662
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 4: basically start. If you look at the Giants realistically, they

663
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 4: started five guards. Last week, they have five guards. Like

664
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 4: Schmidt would probably be a guard, Neil should be a guard.

665
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 4: They just just bring two tight endings, run a lot

666
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 4: simple play action, and Dabel knows how to taxas team.

667
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 4: He knows the Bills offense too. I think the signs

668
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 4: is too high and it could be Tyron Taylor whatever,

669
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 4: I don't I don't care. The offense will run the same.

670
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 4: It's a slight downgrade. Yeah, it's ugly, so two touchdowns.

671
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: I can't pass it off.

672
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 3: I will say it. This is like it's the right side.

673
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: I don't really know where to go with the Giants.

674
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 5: I would like to drives a little more if the

675
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 5: Bill's not coming off a loss, because now you're gonna

676
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 5: get like, okay, we got to right the ship.

677
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 3: But I agree, I mean the Bills are you know, injured, and.

678
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 5: It's these these spots have just kind of been money

679
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 5: without fail. I'll close it out with my third and

680
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 5: final pick of the week, six Sunday six pack, going

681
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 5: with the Lions minus three against the Tampa Bay Bucks. Uh,

682
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 5: it's not ugly, but it's it's kind of ugly because

683
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 5: usually we'll be selling the Lions, right. I mean, they're

684
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 5: coming off all these impressive wins. They're they're growing people out.

685
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 5: But I want to sell the Bucks even more. And

686
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 5: the difference is, I even though we're gonna probably be

687
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 5: selling the lines very soon, the Lions are legit, but

688
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 5: none of the Bucks wins check out like they open.

689
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 3: The year they beat the Vikings by.

690
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 5: Three of the game we were on, you know, they

691
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 5: they were on the Bucks in that one. They beat

692
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 5: the Vikings because the Vikings can't hold on to the ball.

693
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 5: They turn it over three times and they win by three.

694
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 5: The next week they're playing the Bears, when the when

695
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 5: Justin Field still didn't know how to play quarterback, you know,

696
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 5: still confused and not making good decisions. The Bears had

697
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 5: a chance to tire or go ahead, and before one

698
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 5: of the worst play calls of all time a second

699
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 5: straight screen backed up on your own goal line, and okay,

700
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay gets a ten point win. Fine, and then

701
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 5: they walloped the Saints in another game. We were on

702
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 5: the Bucks because Derek Carr decides, like on Saturday, then

703
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 5: he wants to play.

704
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 3: I don't think he practiced much all week.

705
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 5: The Saints are obviously not ready to incorporate it back

706
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 5: into the offense, and they laid an egg and gave

707
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 5: the Bucks a bunch of short fields.

708
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 3: I mean, at one point I.

709
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 5: Think the they turned they got to stop in the

710
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 5: red zone and then turn it right back over to

711
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 5: the Bucks at.

712
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 3: Like the one yard line. It's just none of the

713
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 3: Bucks wins. Check out.

714
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 5: The one legit team they faced was the Eagles, and

715
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 5: it was a twenty five to eleven win. And this

716
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 5: is not even like a great Eagles team, this is

717
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 5: like an Eagles teams still like warming up Baker made

718
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 5: and then another thing. Lions are gonna blitz, not gonna blitz.

719
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 5: They're blitzing second lowest rate, just eighteen percent of time,

720
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 5: but there's still at eighth and pressure rate and Baker

721
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,959
Speaker 5: this year blitzing him has not worked out nine point

722
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 5: nine yards in attempt, essentially ten yards in attempt when blitzed.

723
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 4: I've said this for years. His numbers for his career

724
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 4: are better when blitzed than not right, and it's a

725
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 4: huge misconception. The key to beating pressure is pressure without blitzing.

726
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 4: And then you have more guys than the secondary and

727
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 4: he gets flustered and then will inevitably throw it to

728
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 4: one of them and not see him once or twice

729
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 4: in the game.

730
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 5: And this is exactly what I'm looking for because another

731
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 5: team that's just benefiting from ridiculous turnoverlook, is this buccaneer

732
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 5: to you, like, I already broke it down. So the

733
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 5: Lion's getting pressure. They haven't played the Giants yet, so

734
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 5: their number shouldn't be two inflated. And also another area

735
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 5: of progression. Detroit is the highest drop rate in the league,

736
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 5: so their offense could be even better. They're dropping nearly

737
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 5: eight percent of gof's passes. Bucks of the eighth lowest

738
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 5: drop rate at three just over three percent, So I

739
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 5: think that is going to regress. This Detroit team an

740
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 5: overall dv AWAY on defense eighth against the past, four

741
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 5: against the run, and Tampa Bay has been really good

742
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 5: against the past. They haven't been good against the run.

743
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 5: They have the second worst PFF run defense grade they have.

744
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 5: They're outside of the top twenty in DVOA. And you

745
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 5: know what this Lion team to do on the ground already.

746
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 5: Now you're getting a mont ros Saint brown back, so

747
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 5: I think that'll help the pass again. Gibs looks like

748
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 5: he'll still be out, but you have a Manra and

749
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 5: Jamison Williams you practice today, so it.

750
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 4: Should be Mike and Mike Evans.

751
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: Mike Evans. There's questions.

752
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 5: I didn't I didn't see a practice report, so I

753
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 5: can't confirm. Obviously, that would be even better. I'd like

754
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 5: it even more. But yeah, I think Detroit. I think

755
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 5: this is a I think this is another spot which Detroit,

756
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 5: you know, runs up the score and blows them out.

757
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 5: And I think, you know, people are buying in a

758
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 5: little too much of this Bucks team that played nobody

759
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 5: got no wins against anyone good.

760
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 3: Uh, and it's.

761
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 5: Coming off of buying, by the way, another spot with this,

762
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 5: so coming off of bye, usually it is worth a

763
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 5: little bit. You know, obviously more rest is better, but

764
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 5: this is a spot. Yeah, they've been very overrated though

765
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 5: home when the because you're usually going to be in

766
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 5: a better spot when you're the superior team coming up

767
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 5: short rest or long rest tends to better benefit the favorite,

768
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:20,760
Speaker 5: you know, superior team with either more time or prepare

769
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 5: or just better talent. But like these home dogs off

770
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 5: of bye, that's when they've been inflated. They're just twenty

771
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 5: six forty three and one against the spread under when

772
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 5: it's a home dog by under a touchdown just thirty.

773
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 3: Eight percent over the last two decades.

774
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 5: So give me Detroit to keep it rolling at least

775
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 5: one more week against this overrated Bucks team that we

776
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 5: all expected to finish either really in last place and

777
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 5: that had nothing has really changed for me with this

778
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 5: Bucks team, So give me de.

779
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 4: Troit, Hello, de Troy.

780
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 5: One.

781
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 4: I don't have to feel here. You're on your own

782
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 4: here because the Lions resume doesn't really check out either. Like, yeah,

783
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:08,959
Speaker 4: and they think they were lucky to be the Chiefs

784
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 4: the first game of the year, and then who have

785
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,439
Speaker 4: they beat since Although Mike Evans didn't practice.

786
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 3: Today, that's not good coming off to buy either.

787
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 4: No, that definitely would help your case, So I don't

788
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 4: hate it, especially because all Jared Goff does is cover games. True.

789
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 5: I didn't even want to bring that up because I

790
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 5: don't know what that means exactly.

791
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I don't have a strong field here, but

792
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 4: I will regin. We at least we have the Bengals

793
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 4: and lines, so we have like semi confident teams in

794
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 4: our six pack because the rest.

795
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 5: Are oh boy, okay, So that's gonna I do it

796
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 5: for a six packs. The recap Stuck has the Bengals

797
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 5: mines two and a half, the Panthers plus thirteen and

798
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 5: a half, the Giants plus fourteen. I have the Pats

799
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 5: plus three, the Vikings mines two and a half, and

800
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 5: the Lions minus three. Uh.

801
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 3: That's gonna wrap it up for our week six to

802
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 3: six pack. Now it's time for our coaches pep talk.

803
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 4: Every time we get ready to play. I just want

804
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 4: to throw up.

805
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 3: So the press, I don't even want to talk componit.

806
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 4: I'm sick. I want you you guys, play all right.

807
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,280
Speaker 5: This week's Coaches Top Talk comes to us from the

808
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 5: two thousand and three film Old School, one of my

809
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 5: favorite movies, and we're gonna dedicate it to all of

810
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 5: the falling nine teams that we're trying to catch this week,

811
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 5: So to Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants, and the

812
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 5: New England Patriots.

813
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,919
Speaker 3: Come on, all right, everybody, let's what I'm talking about. Guys.

814
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 3: We've made a great up and so far, let's just

815
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 3: keep it up. That's right.

816
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,439
Speaker 4: We can't have anyone freak out out there. Okay, we've

817
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 4: got a k mark Apolosuer, We've got too far. It's

818
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 4: too much to lot. You got charpolsure.

819
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 3: Keep your composure, guys.

820
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 5: Stuck you and I know more memories are made when

821
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 5: you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets,

822
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 5: ticket Masters got you covered. As the official marketplace of

823
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 5: the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your

824
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,720
Speaker 5: perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you three hundred

825
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Speaker 5: and sixty degree previews of your section to make sure

826
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 5: that you have the best view of all those pivotal

827
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 5: plays and if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more

828
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 5: flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets.

829
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,280
Speaker 3: Plus mobile tickets.

830
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 5: Make getting in on game day breeze, and you can

831
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,760
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832
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 5: find tickets today at ticketmaster dot com slash NFL. Now

833
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 5: it's time for our favorite totals of the week.

834
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 3: I'll start us off.

835
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 5: Since you started the six packs stuck, I'm going with

836
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 5: another under this week. We're going Philly Jets under forty one.

837
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 5: Jets are twenty third in pace and Philly is twenty fifth.

838
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 5: The Jets are also dead last in pace and neutral situations.

839
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 5: And you know, the egos are pretty slow, especially when

840
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 5: they have the lead, which is what we expect to

841
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:52,919
Speaker 5: happen here. This Jet offense selling high after they put

842
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 5: up thirty rare thirty point outing going up against terrible

843
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 5: Bronco D you lost your best offensive well, who's been

844
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 5: your offensive lineman? And Verah Tucker he was their highest

845
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 5: graded offensive lineman this year at PFF. This Jet defense

846
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 5: I still think is capable of, you know, at least

847
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 5: slowing down the Eagles offensive bit thirteen mile prior wins

848
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 5: chance of rain in MetLife as well, and the Eagles,

849
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 5: especially since they found this revelation with DeAndre Swift.

850
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 3: They're gonna run the ball, run the ball.

851
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 5: And the Jets, you know, they had success last week

852
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,240
Speaker 5: because they were able to run the ball well. Philly

853
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 5: is one of the best run defenses in the league.

854
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 5: So don't think the Jets will have much success. And

855
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 5: I think Philly is just gonna eat a lot of

856
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 5: time and possession, keep the ball on the ground. And

857
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,399
Speaker 5: like you said, you don't want to show too much

858
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 5: here because you got a primetime game against the Dolphins,

859
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 5: who I think you much rather you know, ball out against.

860
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 5: So I think it's just going to be an ugly,

861
00:41:53,440 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 5: another East Coast ugly, low scoring, potentially weatherfield game for

862
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 5: the Jets and the Eagles.

863
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 3: So under forty one for me.

864
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, Eagles are like a service academy. They could and

865
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 4: they could a lead. They can just in college. They

866
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 4: could just strangle the game, the game away with these long,

867
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 4: grinding drys that just bleed the entire clock out as

868
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 4: we saw against the Rams in the second half. Yeah,

869
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 4: Eagles can stop the run. Good run defense should have

870
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,240
Speaker 4: avenge in the trenches so they they can get pressure

871
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 4: without blitzing. How the Jets only offense is give it

872
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:29,760
Speaker 4: to Breeze Hall and if he breaks went for seventy,

873
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 4: that could be as easy going against the Eagles as

874
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 4: it was against the Broncos last week. And they only

875
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 4: got the twenty three in that game. Then they got

876
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 4: a defensive touchdown to the final seconds. So yeah, I

877
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 4: like this one as well. I'm gonna go I had

878
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 4: a really long streak of overs trophing last week, but

879
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 4: I would bet that one again should have got there.

880
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go to another over. We're gonna go Baltimore, Tennessee.

881
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 4: We're gonna go Overseas, so on an over forty one.

882
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 4: I look right now where I think. First of all,

883
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 4: I should say that I think that the Ravens approached

884
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 4: this right. They went Monday, and Harball said, look at that.

885
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 4: We looked at a lot of the data. I don't

886
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 4: think there's any right answer. But from what I've seen,

887
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 4: teams that go earlier, it doesn't mean they always win,

888
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 4: but early on they tend to have more energy. And

889
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 4: the bills went late and McDermott said, look, we didn't

890
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 4: have as much energy as the Jags did. Were already

891
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 4: there last week, and you hear that more so than

892
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 4: not for these teams to travel late. The Tennessee's going Friday,

893
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 4: the Ravens already there. But I think the Ravens come

894
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 4: into this game with an underrated offense because you know,

895
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 4: they had offensive line injuries, they had injuries that receive

896
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 4: a running back, and they were playing like weather games.

897
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 4: So the offense and they were installing a new scheme.

898
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 4: The offense is so close to breaking out. He saw

899
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 4: all those drops last week. So I think this offense

900
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 4: is ready to explode and they can do it against

901
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 4: the Tennessee defense that's bad in the secondary and has

902
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 4: to rely on their defensive front to stop the run

903
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 4: and get pressure. Well, guess what. There are two big

904
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 4: horses houses, I should say, and up front and tier

905
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 4: Tart who was out last week and the Coults ran

906
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,919
Speaker 4: wild against them, and Jeffery Simmons, who played hurt. Both

907
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 4: of them didn't practice today. Without them, this defense falls

908
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:19,959
Speaker 4: off a cliff on the other side of the ball,

909
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 4: you know, the Ravens defense I think comes in overrated.

910
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 4: They're still not getting a ton of pressure, which is

911
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 4: a concern. They've had some injuries to some of their

912
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 4: key edge rushers, and the secondary still has some questions

913
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 4: at corner outside of Humphrey, and they've played nothing but

914
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 4: bad quarterbacks. Backup quarterbacks hurt quarterbacks, so I think their

915
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 4: defensive metrics are inflated. So I think this number is

916
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 4: too low for where this game will be played. I

917
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 4: think that the Titans can get to you know, fourteen

918
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 4: seventeen at a minimum, and I think the Ravens are

919
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 4: do to come out here and get twenty seven to thirty.

920
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 4: This offense is really close, and this is the defense

921
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 4: to do it against, especially with a banged up target.

922
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 4: I don't think he's gonna play and a banged up

923
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 4: Simmons who might not play, and if he does, he's

924
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 4: gonna be hampered, which is why you saw them get

925
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 4: absolutely shredded by the Colts last week. So I like

926
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 4: this over. I think Raven's offense is undervalued defense overvalued.

927
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 4: Tennessee's defense is not being downgraded enough for their injuries

928
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 4: on the defensive line, so I think it sets up

929
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 4: as an early over. And then I'll also throw in

930
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,399
Speaker 4: I like the Ravens lean. The Ravens at minus four

931
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 4: almost put them in a six pack Ravens money line

932
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 4: pair that with I'm gonna pair that with the Rams.

933
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,919
Speaker 4: Rams money line against the Cardinals. Cardinals day is so bad.

934
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 4: I think the you know, the fun is up with Arizona,

935
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 4: the gig is up with the fun with Dobbs, and

936
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 4: you know the offense saw is more juice than we thought.

937
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 4: But Rams, I think are winning that game. So I'm

938
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 4: parlaying the Ravens with the Rams money line as well

939
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,280
Speaker 4: for the total, giving Ravens Titans over stuck.

940
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 5: Has the Titans Ravens over forty one? I have the

941
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 5: Eagles Drets under forty one. Now it's time for a

942
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 5: favorite teaser.

943
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 4: Of the week.

944
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers change.

945
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: Don't tease me please? All right, we're both forty one

946
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: on a year on teasers.

947
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's go with U. If you want to ideally

948
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 4: tease through three and seven, lower the total the better,

949
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 4: where points will be at a premium less variance. Let's

950
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 4: go with the Texans. Tease them up over a touchdown

951
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 4: against the Saints should be a lower scoring game. It's

952
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 4: still like what I've seen from strout offensive line is

953
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 4: getting healthier as well. I think they can keep that

954
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 4: within one possession at the minimum. Let's pair them with

955
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 4: the the Commanders from plus two and a half to

956
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 4: plus eight and a half another game with a total

957
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 4: forty two and a half. Rit Or played better last week,

958
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 4: but Washington's gonna get a lot more pressure on them.

959
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 4: They gets got it. I mean they're giving up their

960
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 4: past success. Do you just find their runds is okay?

961
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,359
Speaker 4: They're given to way too many explosive passing, place little

962
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 4: more variants in those numbers. I'm not as concerned with

963
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 4: that against Atlanta. So I think both of those are

964
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 4: positive ev pieces. Let's go with the Commis and the Texans.

965
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:34,359
Speaker 4: Washington also extra rest after getting embarrassed. I think you'll

966
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 4: get a pretty good effort here.

967
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll have more to Washington in a bit, but

968
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 5: I'm going Houston as well, and then i'll pair it

969
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 5: with I'll go Philly here seven down to one. I

970
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 5: think with the Jets, Oh, I'm continuing to get worse

971
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 5: and worse. I think Philly wins this game. It might

972
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 5: be ugly, probably be weller scoring, but I do think

973
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 5: they escape here, escape met life with a win. So

974
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 5: going Philly minus one and then Houston up to seven

975
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 5: and a half. So to recap Houston seven and a

976
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 5: half for both of us. Stuck his parent with the

977
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 5: Commanders up to eight and a half and I'm pairing

978
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:12,879
Speaker 5: it with the Eagles down to minus one. And as

979
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 5: a reminder, Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM

980
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 5: and you can use Bonus Code Action when signing up

981
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,719
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982
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,760
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983
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984
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:36,560
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985
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,800
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986
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 5: Gambling problem call oney hundred gambler. Now it's time for

987
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 5: an underdog money line par lay.

988
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

989
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

990
00:48:59,320 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 3: All right?

991
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 5: You two and three on more and four in the year,

992
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 5: So you got to pick it up here?

993
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 3: Where are you going? What you're doing for this week?

994
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 4: By the way, I think you talked about the Eagles.

995
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 4: I think give enough. Zach Wilson slinder in there. Zach

996
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 4: Wilson was the first player in the NFL history since

997
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,479
Speaker 4: the merger, I should say to have the worst pass

998
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 4: rating two years in a row, he's currently the second

999
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 4: worst this year. I head of just Daniel Jones, So

1000
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 4: need you this week? Jones? All right, I'm gonna go

1001
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 4: with the Patriots. We talked, We talked about it earlier,

1002
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 4: and I think this is this is it, this is

1003
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 4: the but the bypoint, the low point. McDaniel try to

1004
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 4: give this away. I mean if the Raiders have won

1005
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 4: two games this year against beat up teams by one

1006
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 4: and four, and McDaniel tried to give them the game

1007
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 4: both games away. So yeah, I think this is that

1008
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 4: the Patriots are gonna reset. They're basically said we're starting over,

1009
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 4: which means that they're just gonna come out here, run

1010
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 4: easy throws. And that's what the Raiders defense will give you.

1011
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 4: The strength of Raiders defense, taking away past exposes, it

1012
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:58,720
Speaker 4: doesn't really matter against this New England team. Short week,

1013
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 4: greats for the Raiders, great spot for New England. I'm

1014
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 4: going to trust them one more time. I think this

1015
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,879
Speaker 4: numbers inflated after what we saw last week, So let's

1016
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 4: go with the Pats.

1017
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 3: Obviously agree there and I'll go Washington.

1018
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 5: You know, you kind of just talked about it with

1019
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 5: the teas, but everyone Desert Rider hasn't lost at home.

1020
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 5: Was he undefeated at the Falcons at home? Undefeated in

1021
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:22,959
Speaker 5: college at home?

1022
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, that's the.

1023
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 4: Middle school too.

1024
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 5: He's too bad of a quarterback for that to last

1025
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,439
Speaker 5: too much longer. Now, this is a high variance game.

1026
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 5: That's why you know it is better. I think as

1027
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 5: a teas or a money line dog, like taking the

1028
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 5: two and a half year. I know the Falcons every

1029
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 5: time they win, it's but like one or two. Uh

1030
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 5: so you might you know, the Falcons might win and

1031
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 5: you still cover. But ultimately I think this is the

1032
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 5: way you want to back Washington. Uh, Falcons pretty underwhelming

1033
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 5: as what you know. They're They're in the bottom twenty

1034
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 5: in DVOA. Their defense hasn't been great nothing, and I

1035
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 5: can't I can't expect Ridder to you know, put up

1036
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 5: big numbers again, you know, back to back weeks.

1037
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 3: He's been bad. From a cleen it.

1038
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 5: Washington, they just got cost sleeping against the Bears. I

1039
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:12,319
Speaker 5: think they're not great. They're still one of the worst

1040
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 5: teams in the league, but they're better than what we

1041
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 5: saw of them last, and that's kind of the theme

1042
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 5: on the show. So yeah, Bilo on Washington, sell high

1043
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 5: on Atlanta. We liked Atlanta long term, but I kind

1044
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 5: of wish Ritter had a bad game last week so

1045
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:29,800
Speaker 5: we could get to Heinike before we really start getting

1046
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 5: screwed over here. But either way, Washington, New England parlay

1047
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 5: odds plus four thirty nine. So nice little juicy one there.

1048
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 5: All right, Now it's time for the best of the rest.

1049
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 5: Games we have not covered in any other segment, but

1050
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 5: are still, as they say, meaningful to some.

1051
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 2: That's gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1052
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:56,359
Speaker 2: to some of.

1053
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 3: You, and you know what I mean.

1054
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,400
Speaker 5: All right, First, we got the Coats at the Jaguars

1055
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 5: Jags minus four total forty five and a half. Jagson

1056
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:08,760
Speaker 5: won seven straight at home against the Coats.

1057
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 3: I believe it is. I like the matter.

1058
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 5: I'm kind of tempted to bet the Jags here. I

1059
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 5: think this number has kind of come down. Everyone's loving

1060
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 5: the Colts. They've been covering his dogs. I get it,

1061
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 5: but I just see a lot of their success is

1062
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:25,439
Speaker 5: somewhat unsustainable. I mean number one, like you just keep

1063
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 5: getting lucky with like Yall, the Titans best the best

1064
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 5: one of the top two run defense in the league.

1065
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 5: Two of their best run defenders get hurt in the

1066
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 5: middle of the game. Your backup running back breaks off

1067
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 5: a big play, you know, like it, Baltimore screws off

1068
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 5: the last you know, the communication on the kickoff, they

1069
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 5: win a game. I mean, I like Jacksonville here, but

1070
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 5: I don't know, talk to it. And Trevor Lawrence has

1071
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 5: been great against his Gus browleye defense as well. I

1072
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 5: think it's like completing like eighty plus percent of his

1073
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 5: passes last year against it.

1074
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 3: So I kind of like Jacksonville, but I don't know,

1075
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 3: talk to me. What do you think of this one?

1076
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the ideal offense for law Larrence and

1077
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 4: he didn't even have Ridley in the past prior to

1078
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 4: this season. It just just tricky spot. Just like I

1079
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 4: don't we don't have a lot of data here that

1080
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 4: they were in London for two weeks. All the big

1081
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 4: win Colts with revenge in the divisional game from earlier

1082
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 4: in the season, and Minshew's an upgrade to me over Richardson.

1083
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 4: I mean, I told you he's actually going downfield, which

1084
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 4: is where you have to attack this Jacksonville team. And

1085
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 4: even though he's the one throwing downfield and Richardson, Richardson

1086
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 4: isn't Richardson an eighteen point five percent bad throw percentage

1087
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 4: Minshew twelve, So he's throwing a boar downfield and having

1088
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 4: fewer bad rows, and that's where you need to attack

1089
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 4: this jaguarsings. You're not gonna be able to run on them. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

1090
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 4: they're not. They're gonna have five man fronts on first down.

1091
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 4: I mean, they're just by scheme, You're you're not really

1092
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 4: gonna be able to run on. Jacksonville one of the

1093
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 4: best run defenses in the NFL this year, and they

1094
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 4: were really good last year. So it's gonna be up

1095
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:58,919
Speaker 4: the Minshew Minshew revenge game here. Yeah, numbers come down

1096
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 4: bit too much. I lean Jags with tricky spot so pass.

1097
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, and like Larrence is a favorite, hasn't been great,

1098
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 5: still has a losing record against the spreads, So yeah,

1099
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 5: it's it's I'm thinking about it just because it's number.

1100
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 5: I think it should be closer to five, five and

1101
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 5: a half. But let's go to the next one. Arizona

1102
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 5: at the Rams Rams minus seven total forty eight and a half.

1103
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 3: Remember on one of the preseason possive we kind of

1104
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 3: talked about, what is this total going to be? Uh,

1105
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:29,879
Speaker 3: and it is pretty high.

1106
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:31,560
Speaker 5: But the Rams, yeah, they look a lot better than

1107
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 5: we thought. The Cardinals offense is better too. You know,

1108
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 5: usually might be a spot I would consider the card

1109
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 5: knows that, but it's number one.

1110
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 3: James Connor's on I R.

1111
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 5: And you know de Mercado has been great in the

1112
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 5: past game, but his rush success rate is about thirty

1113
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 5: five percent in the small samples. You know, Connor is

1114
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 5: around fifty percent, So it could be a it might

1115
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:54,759
Speaker 5: not be able to run the ball now. Now you're

1116
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 5: just trying to you know, out out pass Stafford Cup

1117
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 5: and the against and when you have one of the

1118
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 5: worst pass defenses in the league if you're the Cardinals.

1119
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:08,400
Speaker 5: So I just they could cover here. I wouldn't be surprised,

1120
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 5: but I don't really see any value. I'd wean Cardinals,

1121
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:13,880
Speaker 5: but I just don't like I don't like the matchup

1122
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 5: anymore given the injuries.

1123
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 4: What do you think? No, I mean, teams haven't had

1124
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 4: much success the week after against the spread that we

1125
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,399
Speaker 4: get They're playing the Eagles really physical games since twenty twenty,

1126
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 4: they're twenty thirty five against the spread. Could be something there,

1127
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 4: but yeah, I mean, I'm I'm going to money line

1128
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 4: the Rams with the Ravens. That said earlier, Arizona's defense

1129
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 4: is dreadful. I mean, they're one of four teams that

1130
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 4: are getting pressure under fifteen percent of the time, so

1131
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 4: they're not going to get pressure on Stafford. And they're

1132
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,439
Speaker 4: twenty eighth and EPA pri play thirty second, dead last

1133
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 4: and opponent success rate the only team that's allowing above

1134
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 4: fifty percent in success rate. Their secondary is so bad

1135
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 4: that they have to play so far off so they

1136
00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 4: don't get burnt. And now you're playing this Rams receiving corps,

1137
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 4: which is like I mean, it's with the Kua at

1138
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:05,919
Speaker 4: Well has been great now Cup back and Cup it's

1139
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,320
Speaker 4: hit the ground running last week, Stafford's gouna be pressured

1140
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:13,240
Speaker 4: and those receivers the outside. How's Aazona gonna get stops?

1141
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 4: I just don't see it. And then with Connor on

1142
00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 4: our dobs will make a couple of mistakes. I actually

1143
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 4: lean the Rams, but at seven it's a pass. But

1144
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 4: I'm gonna money line them with the Ravens.

1145
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:25,640
Speaker 5: It's still early and minus seven in a divisional game.

1146
00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:28,880
Speaker 5: Can't can't get there. But if you're trying to money line,

1147
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 5: I think that's a better way to go about it.

1148
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 4: The circle of life in the NFC West, as I

1149
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 4: refer to it, is the Rams own the Cardinals.

1150
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,480
Speaker 3: Yeah that's okay, who owned the forty nine.

1151
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 4: Ers, who owned the Rams, who also owned the Seahawks,

1152
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 4: who owned the forty nine ers. Yes, circle of life

1153
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 4: in the NFC West if you can keep up, but

1154
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 4: it might not. No, there's a different different schemes now.

1155
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 4: But I just don't see this Cardinals team getting any stops.

1156
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 5: Yeah it might be, I mean for people that are

1157
00:56:56,880 --> 00:56:59,919
Speaker 5: like overs, not a bad one at the point.

1158
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 3: Okay.

1159
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 5: And the one the game everyone's worked up about is

1160
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:10,279
Speaker 5: this Niners Browns game. The spread is Niners by six

1161
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,239
Speaker 5: and a half on the road, the total stirty seven

1162
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:13,280
Speaker 5: and a half's.

1163
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 3: Gonna be weather. Looks like we're probably now expecting to

1164
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: Shawn Watson. I don't know.

1165
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on here this Brown season.

1166
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 5: I mean, it looks so promising with this defense and now,

1167
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know. I really just bad vibes

1168
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 5: getting bad vibes from from you know, Watson is Watson

1169
00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 5: is Watson's decision? Is this the team's decision? Now?

1170
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:37,320
Speaker 3: You don't got rubs.

1171
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 5: I mean, this defense is great, but the Niners just

1172
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 5: put up forty two on the Cowboys.

1173
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 3: So I don't know what do you what are you

1174
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 3: thinking here?

1175
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 4: This was gonna be a hammer for me. This was

1176
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 4: gonna be my number one pick. It's this spot. Yeah,

1177
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 4: I mean the Browns d on like the Cowboys didn't

1178
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 4: get pressure. You have to get pressure on party. Brown

1179
00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 4: c can get pressure. They have a better secondary than

1180
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 4: the Cowboys. Brown's lead the NFL and pressure. You're playing

1181
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,360
Speaker 4: at home in weather as this is gonna be tough

1182
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 4: for Perdie not as easy as it's been. But now

1183
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 4: there's no Chubb, there's offensive line injuries, ni Jok who's

1184
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 4: also hurt, and you might get p J. Walkers not

1185
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:16,720
Speaker 4: even on the fifth. He's gonna start if lots of

1186
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 4: can't go and reading the tea leaves, Watson's not gonna go.

1187
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 4: So you know, this was such a good spot off

1188
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 4: of a bye after getting embarrassed, and I mean I

1189
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 4: have trends for days that speak to this. Bilo Saigh,

1190
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 4: you know, off of a team that just blew out

1191
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 4: a you know, one of their biggest rivals in the

1192
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 4: conference on a primetime game in a hype home spot.

1193
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 4: Now going you know across the country in weather where

1194
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 4: it's gonna just be miserable in Cleveland. I don't know

1195
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 4: how this like this game, this should go under, but

1196
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 4: I'd worry about Brown's turnovers. This line's gonna go up

1197
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 4: when Watson gets announced out. So I mean to playing

1198
00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers now like minus six six and

1199
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 4: a half is not a bad idea because you can

1200
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 4: always buy back. But if Watson's out, then this thing

1201
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 4: goes to seven now at least, and then you have

1202
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 4: a middle if you want to buy out. But yeah,

1203
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 4: I've I mean, I have so many trends too that

1204
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 4: to speak to the buy love sell high nature of

1205
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 4: this spot. But I mean, for example, home Dogs were

1206
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 4: undefeated straight up teams are sixty one, thirty eight and

1207
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 4: one against the spread over the last ten years, eighty

1208
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 4: eight to fifty three and two against the spreads in

1209
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:37,360
Speaker 4: twenty ten. I'm about like twenty of those things. But

1210
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 4: it's PJ. Walker, who was who was the only quarterback

1211
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:46,439
Speaker 4: worse than Zach Wilson last year. Over the past years,

1212
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 4: I should say, if you look at some advanced metrics,

1213
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 4: no Chubb, offensive line injuries, like you have Bosta going

1214
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 4: against Will's, I don't know how the Brown's gonna score.

1215
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 4: So the defense is gonn play up here. If they

1216
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 4: don't turn it over, this game could be like thirteen

1217
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 4: to ten. But if they turn it over, they could

1218
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:08,760
Speaker 4: lose by twenty one. So yeah, it's a great spot

1219
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 4: for the Browns. But can you really I need more

1220
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 4: to consider?

1221
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, j Walker and if Deshaun does play, I mean,

1222
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:19,040
Speaker 5: this dude, was he not thrown in like three weeks?

1223
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 3: He's throwing up three passes or something like.

1224
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then we win, So like, what are you

1225
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 4: gonna get from him?

1226
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:25,439
Speaker 3: And in that running game?

1227
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 5: I mean, honestly, it's not great without Chubb. I mean,

1228
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:29,720
Speaker 5: you know, I know Ford had like a big run

1229
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 5: against Pittsburgh, which not a great run to you, but

1230
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 5: it's it would be it will like this looked a

1231
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:37,160
Speaker 5: lot better like what it was it three weeks ago,

1232
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 5: about three weeks three, four weeks ago, this game, Yeah,

1233
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 5: I would have had this circled now. Yeah, it's probably

1234
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:45,440
Speaker 5: if anything, teas the Niners down. Maybe they'll probably get

1235
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 5: out of here with a win, whether it's ugly or

1236
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 5: not if Watson doesn't play.

1237
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:54,040
Speaker 3: But yeah, shame man. Okay, let's wrap it up with Survivor.

1238
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 2: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1239
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 4: I'm running your whatever you say, I'll agree with.

1240
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 3: I gotta so.

1241
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,360
Speaker 5: I mentioned that of the two big spots, I like

1242
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 5: the Carolina Panthers more, and I also on the show

1243
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 5: went with Miami last week, So I gotta go Buffalo here.

1244
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:27,680
Speaker 5: Looking at Buffalo schedule coming up, not a ton of

1245
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:31,240
Speaker 5: spots I really want, and coming off a loss, I

1246
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 5: think you'll get a decent enough effort to win the game.

1247
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:34,160
Speaker 3: I do agree.

1248
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:36,920
Speaker 5: You could see a little bit closer score maybe than

1249
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 5: we expect.

1250
01:01:37,840 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 4: But.

1251
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 5: Like Buffalo a lot more now that they you know,

1252
01:01:41,680 --> 01:01:44,440
Speaker 5: kind of got focused, have to give their best effort.

1253
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 5: I could see. I guess I could see the Rams.

1254
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 5: You know you mentioned the Rams. But divisional game not

1255
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 5: not what I like to do. If I can help

1256
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:55,479
Speaker 5: it is play, you know, divisional favorites and who else

1257
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 5: we got that's the Chiefs we already using. We three

1258
01:02:00,360 --> 01:02:02,439
Speaker 5: another divisional game Thursday night where things happen.

1259
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, bills.

1260
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 5: I think, not a great week, but yeah, bills and

1261
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:07,960
Speaker 5: if you got the if you don't have the bills,

1262
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 5: I'd go. I'd go to Dolphins because that was the

1263
01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 5: team that I looked at their schedule and not too

1264
01:02:14,160 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 5: many more after this, I want to buy them.

1265
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 3: Will they're healthy enough? So yeah, bills for me.

1266
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:20,600
Speaker 5: Okay, that's gonna wrap it up for the week six

1267
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 5: Action Network Pod presented.

1268
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:24,440
Speaker 3: By bet MGM.

1269
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:27,959
Speaker 5: You can hear more of myself and my guy Sean

1270
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,920
Speaker 5: Curner this week talking fantasy and DFS on the Fantasy

1271
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:36,560
Speaker 5: Flex Podcast, and also we have our Action Network Discord

1272
01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:39,480
Speaker 5: Server week in the description as I mentioned earlier, and

1273
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 5: Stuck will be talking college football over on Big Bets

1274
01:02:42,840 --> 01:02:46,080
Speaker 5: on Campus on Friday morning, and you can find Stuck

1275
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 5: on X at Stucky too. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're

1276
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:52,040
Speaker 5: at those same handles on the free award winning Action

1277
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 5: Network app. So next time let's get fish money I go.

1278
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:07,920
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1279
01:03:07,960 --> 01:03:10,440
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1280
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler