WEBVTT - Matthew Benkendorf on Managing Equities

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<v Speaker 1>This is Masters in Business with very Ridholts on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Radio this weekend. On the podcast, I have a special guest.

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<v Speaker 1>His name is Matt Benkendorff, ce IO of Von Toble

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<v Speaker 1>Quality Growth, which runs about thirty five billion dollars UH

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<v Speaker 1>in equities. This is really a fascinating conversation about a

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<v Speaker 1>very specific way to manage equities UH that seems to

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<v Speaker 1>differ from how a lot of different people approach UH investing.

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<v Speaker 1>VON the group that Matt works with is specifically an

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<v Speaker 1>active manager. He oversees six different areas including Asia, Global,

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<v Speaker 1>European US, and Global means go anywhere, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>emerging markets. They have a very unique approach. A single

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<v Speaker 1>team puts money to work in all those areas. A

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<v Speaker 1>lot of UH firms do not operate that way. They

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<v Speaker 1>have amassed quite an outstanding track record beating comparable firms

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<v Speaker 1>and their benchmark for quite a long number of years.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you're at all interested in how to manage assets,

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<v Speaker 1>how to run a high conviction UH portfolio, how to

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<v Speaker 1>think about a process for stock selection and risk management UH,

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<v Speaker 1>then you're going to find this to be an absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>fascinating conversation. So with no further ado. My interview of

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<v Speaker 1>Matt Benkendorf of n Toble Quality Growth. This is Masters

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<v Speaker 1>in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. My special

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<v Speaker 1>guest this week is Matt Benkendorf. He is the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of Untoble Quality Growth, a thirty five billion dollar global

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<v Speaker 1>growth equity boutique division of investment giant Von Toble out

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<v Speaker 1>of Switzerland's. Matt joined the firm in He became deputy

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<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager in two thousand and six, lead portfolio manager

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<v Speaker 1>of the European Equity Strategy and OH eight and since

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and twelve he has been lead portfolio manager

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<v Speaker 1>for US Equity Strategy. Matt Benkendorff, Welcome to Bloombark. Thanks Barry,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me. Did I did I get your

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<v Speaker 1>name right? I feel like I'm mispronouncing It's a tough one,

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<v Speaker 1>but you got it right. There's been many variations over

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<v Speaker 1>the years, but you got the best one there, I

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<v Speaker 1>think so so. Von Tobol has been around since nine

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<v Speaker 1>eight four. You joined the firm in How was your

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<v Speaker 1>investment philosophy shaped by those years? That was quite a

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<v Speaker 1>era of equity investing. Yeah, he could, UH say, I

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<v Speaker 1>was very much brought up and steeped within Von Tobel.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. I came to Von Toba lad of undergraduate,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a little bit rare in this business, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think if you even take a further step

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<v Speaker 1>back and look at the longer arc of my life,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I'm sitting here today doing what I always

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to do as a kid. Now, So the journey

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<v Speaker 1>started a long time ago. I grew up in a

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<v Speaker 1>family business. I was always interested in business. I always

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<v Speaker 1>thought in terms of what works in business, what doesn't profitability?

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<v Speaker 1>And then when I was a kid, I found the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market to be an interesting outlet for that because

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<v Speaker 1>so as a kid, you you if I'm guessing your

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<v Speaker 1>age is right. So you're talking about late seven of

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<v Speaker 1>these early eighties, So that was the beginning of what

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<v Speaker 1>ended up being an eighteen year bull market. How did

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<v Speaker 1>that thousand percent down increase affect uh the way you

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<v Speaker 1>look at equities. Yeah, it's interesting if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>my upbringing to uh. You know, my father was a

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<v Speaker 1>farmer from New Jersey at a landscaping business. We had

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<v Speaker 1>a garden center, uh in northwestern New Jersey. So I

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't around the markets at all, you know, it wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>something we talked about at all at home. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know how I found it. I just sort of stumbled

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<v Speaker 1>upon it once I got into high school. Really and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>that backdrop you know, of what was going on then,

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<v Speaker 1>as you described, that wasn't you know, as close to me,

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<v Speaker 1>which is actually interesting, and that it was more about

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<v Speaker 1>the process itself. It wasn't the results, you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>was the It was the item of being able to

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<v Speaker 1>invest in a business via stock. So I was actually disconnected,

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<v Speaker 1>which is kind of back to I think what ends

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<v Speaker 1>up successful today not focusing on that aspect of it,

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<v Speaker 1>the forward thinking, what the numbers, it's the fundamentals. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's a very fundamental basis too, so less of a

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<v Speaker 1>stock market investor, more of a specific company that happens

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<v Speaker 1>to be public investors. That a fair That's exactly it.

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<v Speaker 1>You know I I you know I as a kid

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<v Speaker 1>and even now today, you know, and on my way

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<v Speaker 1>up here to the studio, I just am wired that

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<v Speaker 1>way that I'm always looking around at things wondering how

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<v Speaker 1>they work, and then generally looking at businesses and wondering

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<v Speaker 1>how they work. And it kind of gets to you

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<v Speaker 1>asked about the philosophy what we describe as quality quality growth.

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<v Speaker 1>Today it's always breaking down businesses quantitatively and qualitatively into

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<v Speaker 1>what makes certain it's great and what makes most businesses

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<v Speaker 1>quite frankly average. And why would you want to get

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<v Speaker 1>out of bed in the morning, you know, to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of engage in something. What's in it for you as

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<v Speaker 1>an owner of the business. So coming into midtown Manhattan today,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a lovely September morning. What did you notice what

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<v Speaker 1>caught your eye that you started thinking of in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of is this particular business doing well? What what businesses

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<v Speaker 1>aren't doing well? I've noticed a lot of the retail

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<v Speaker 1>shops around Manhattan seemed to be closing their doors. Yeah. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the interesting thing when you get into this city

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<v Speaker 1>and you realize sort of the commoditized nature of most

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<v Speaker 1>of the businesses here, particularly restaurants. Right, You just wonder

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<v Speaker 1>you drive up any of the avenues, you wonder how

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<v Speaker 1>how all these places stay in business? You know, what

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<v Speaker 1>are the margins on certain areas of their business? What

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<v Speaker 1>is it about certain locations that make them thrive? So

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<v Speaker 1>I see a lot of average, you know, businesses that

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder, you know, what, what why would you be

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<v Speaker 1>in that business? Not the denigrade the business by any means,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm always sort of ranking and contrasting, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think of it in a lot of ways in terms of,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, even though my upbringing wasn't a different business,

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<v Speaker 1>would you want to own this business? I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>the foundation that people miss a lot in stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>in stock market investing when they think about purchasing something,

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<v Speaker 1>you should really think about it in terms of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if I was born or had the good fortune to

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<v Speaker 1>be in a wealthy family that came from generations of

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<v Speaker 1>owning a business, is this the one business I would

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<v Speaker 1>want to own? You know? That would critically achieve the

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<v Speaker 1>two goals. You're looking for capital preservation over the long

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<v Speaker 1>term and then an attractive rate of capital compounding. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think when you scrutinize businesses at that higher level

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<v Speaker 1>and think about it generationally, that really helps you when

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<v Speaker 1>you get down to even a short term vehicle like

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market, because you then really dig down into

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<v Speaker 1>what it is that, as I said, makes you want

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<v Speaker 1>to get out of bed in the morning and operate

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<v Speaker 1>that business. And that gets into basic things that play

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<v Speaker 1>out in financial analysis, cash flow returns on invested capital,

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<v Speaker 1>incremental returns invested capital, why you want a strong balance sheet,

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<v Speaker 1>aspects like that. So how do those actors play And

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<v Speaker 1>I should really be careful about the word factors, But

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<v Speaker 1>how do they play into the philosophy of quote quality growth? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and and and it's interesting, you know, we've been exercising

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<v Speaker 1>this investment philosophy for twenty years now very consistently, and

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<v Speaker 1>as I talked about it today, I always have to

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<v Speaker 1>sort of smile and chuckle because twenty years ago, what

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<v Speaker 1>we're saying now, quality and growth, they really weren't a

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<v Speaker 1>style by any means. They weren't a box that now

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<v Speaker 1>investors are sort of put in a little bit in mimicking,

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's important to recognize because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the important lessons you learn in this business

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<v Speaker 1>too is financial products are sold and not bought. So

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people use that nomenclature now because that's

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<v Speaker 1>what's worked and it sells well. But I think when

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<v Speaker 1>you peel back a layer of the onion, you find

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<v Speaker 1>when talking to a number of managers who describe themselves

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<v Speaker 1>either as growth or as in now a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>describing them as quality growth. There's a big differentiation in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of how people see businesses. What are they attracted to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and an alogy I use a lot as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, business attraction or investment attraction is a lot

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<v Speaker 1>like personal attraction, right, individuals, We are attracted to certain

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<v Speaker 1>other individuals with certain characteristics, and it's very similar I

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<v Speaker 1>think in the investment world those characteristics you're asking about, right,

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<v Speaker 1>we tend to have an affinity and and magnetize towards

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<v Speaker 1>generally less cyclical businesses. Those businesses are just more attractive

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<v Speaker 1>to us on the margin. Less capital intensity in general

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<v Speaker 1>is something that sort of we magnate towards, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the pre cash flow conversion, the stronger balance sheets, very

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<v Speaker 1>basic principles, but at high standards. I think that's a

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<v Speaker 1>differentiation as well. You know, we life is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>full of as they are, average people and average businesses. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>that's just the nature. There's a lot of us, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's a law of numbers. But when you crank up

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<v Speaker 1>scrutiny to a much smaller subsegment of either highly successful

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<v Speaker 1>people or highly successful businesses, there's a great divergence and

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<v Speaker 1>that divergence, quite frankly, in today's world has gotten even wider.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk little bit about your process for selecting stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you purely bottoms up? Do you think about any

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<v Speaker 1>other top down sort of stuff? Tell us a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about how you approach stock selection. Yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 1>this is also you know what's a common misnomer, uh

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<v Speaker 1>in investing, Uh? That you know you have to get

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<v Speaker 1>the top down right, you know, you have to predict things.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's just general human nature, you know. I

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<v Speaker 1>think one of the greatest advantages in investing is typically

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<v Speaker 1>behavior management of that's the key of it all. Really.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the financial analysis, the investment philosophy we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about today and that i'll describe is one piece. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, also another powerful analogy I use and explaining

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<v Speaker 1>it is investing is a lot like dieting. Uh. You

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<v Speaker 1>know a lot of people know the keys to living

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<v Speaker 1>typically a longer, healthier, happier life, right, what you should eat,

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<v Speaker 1>what you shouldn't eat, how you should exercise, and those elements.

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<v Speaker 1>The key is discipline, right, and investing I think is

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<v Speaker 1>very similar to that. It comes down to discipline. The

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<v Speaker 1>roadmap is fairly clear and it's been well haide out

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<v Speaker 1>by Warren Buffett years ago. Uh In the roadmap really

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<v Speaker 1>needs to be centered on the business. It's all about

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<v Speaker 1>the business. How good is the business, How will that

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<v Speaker 1>business grow? And how is that sustainable? How that business

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<v Speaker 1>will grow, how will that business endure through economic cycles

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<v Speaker 1>which you inherently will not be able to predict. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think ignoring the top down, while is easier said

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<v Speaker 1>than done, is a key. So we do that. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we really do when we think about businesses and

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<v Speaker 1>as I as I mentioned earlier businesses you'd want to own,

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<v Speaker 1>it sort of forces you we we sort of have

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<v Speaker 1>a private business owner I would say somewhat private equity mentality,

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<v Speaker 1>but we happen to be operating in the listed equity sphere,

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<v Speaker 1>which gives us a liquidity advantage, you know. So it

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<v Speaker 1>also allows us to own great businesses which we choose

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<v Speaker 1>bottom up. But we can wake up every day and

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<v Speaker 1>look at the screens and see what values the market

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<v Speaker 1>is striking on those businesses and improve the quality of

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<v Speaker 1>what we own for our investors, which is something as

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<v Speaker 1>a dynamic a private investor can't do, or a private

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<v Speaker 1>equity investor can't do. As quickly. So, so let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about that bottoms up approach. When you're thinking about stock selection,

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<v Speaker 1>how does that process begin? Are you screening things based

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<v Speaker 1>on value? What tell us what what the process is

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<v Speaker 1>like of ultimately saying we're gonna buy this but not that. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the key as you start quant and you

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<v Speaker 1>go than heavy qualitative after that, and I think, so

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<v Speaker 1>what's the plant screen to begin with? The quant piece

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<v Speaker 1>is key, and that I think first where you should

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<v Speaker 1>approach quant is first from an elimination standpoint, negative screening.

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<v Speaker 1>When most people think of quant and screening use the

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<v Speaker 1>word screening typically it sort of has a connoctation that

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<v Speaker 1>you're looking for something when actually what you should be

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<v Speaker 1>doing is eliminating things. First and foremost, you want to

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<v Speaker 1>really narrow the world down because one, there's only so

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<v Speaker 1>many hours in a day, there's a much, so much

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<v Speaker 1>so much firepower you have it or bring to bear

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<v Speaker 1>in the research process. But also you want to just

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<v Speaker 1>fishing a riper pond of opportunity because that greatly reduces

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<v Speaker 1>risk as well over the long run by eliminating as

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<v Speaker 1>I've described, average or lower quality businesses. So we squat

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<v Speaker 1>screen to begin with it's not highly complicated. I'd say

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:10.600
<v Speaker 1>in terms of variables, you're looking for returns on invested capital,

0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:14.480
<v Speaker 1>returns on equity, stability and operating margins, strength of balance sheet.

0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.720
<v Speaker 1>I think the basic variables are easy. You then, though,

0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.200
<v Speaker 1>improve it by looking for levels of those variables, so

0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:25.960
<v Speaker 1>cranking up the scrutiny of the levels of variables you're

0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:29.520
<v Speaker 1>willing to accept. But also then critically, what's key is

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:33.360
<v Speaker 1>the track record, So you want clean track records as well,

0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.080
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's glossed over once again going back

0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:38.720
<v Speaker 1>to this human element, right, and when you say track record,

0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.280
<v Speaker 1>you're not referring to the stock performance. You're referring specifically

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.400
<v Speaker 1>to the performance of the underlying business exactly. You want

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:47.760
<v Speaker 1>to start with businesses that have been great, that have

0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:50.920
<v Speaker 1>proven to be great, and are demonstrating that in numbers,

0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:54.040
<v Speaker 1>and that's what you're looking for. You're eliminating the poor numbers,

0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.760
<v Speaker 1>and you're critically looking for the clean track record of

0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 1>good numbers because that's not a perfect predictor of future SESS,

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:02.600
<v Speaker 1>it does get you over a one ft hurdle and

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 1>points you in the right direction and makes your future

0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 1>looking decision much higher. Probability that Sh'll be right about that.

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.240
<v Speaker 1>So I think that's that's a big key track record,

0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.439
<v Speaker 1>and that's where I'd say go back to this human

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.600
<v Speaker 1>element or behavioral aspect. A lot of people don't want

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 1>to do that because we have a human tendency to

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 1>try to want to be smart or smarter. Right. We

0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.560
<v Speaker 1>want to try to predict what's going to be great

0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 1>tomorrow that wasn't great yesterday, Right, But we try to

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.040
<v Speaker 1>start in a good place, things that have been great,

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.319
<v Speaker 1>and then make an easier, albeit still difficult decision. I

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.840
<v Speaker 1>can they keep doing it. Let's talk a little bit

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>about high conviction. How does that come into play. You've

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 1>gone through the negative screen, remove the names you're not

0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 1>interested in. Now you've done the positive work, and you've

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:48.120
<v Speaker 1>identified fundamentally what you like. How do you take that

0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 1>somewhat lengthy list I would imagine, and reduce it down

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>to a smaller concentrated high conviction list. Yeah. I think

0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:59.079
<v Speaker 1>the sort of genesis of that is two things. You know,

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.120
<v Speaker 1>if I look back at you know, college, I sort

0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 1>of learned two things, one related to your question and

0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 1>one that comes before it. I think one the power

0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:10.079
<v Speaker 1>of protecting capital and down markets and then being long

0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 1>though consistently through markets to participateate and and really be

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>able to compound capital over the long term. You know,

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.000
<v Speaker 1>the classic numbers of you don't want to miss out

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.400
<v Speaker 1>the biggest updates and markets by trying to time the

0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.640
<v Speaker 1>market once again, trying to get away from this top

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.640
<v Speaker 1>down you know, pitfall that most people fall into. So

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 1>I learned that very valuable lesson about preservation, but staying

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 1>long through the market, and you do that. I think

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 1>through quality you can do that, uh. And I think

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.880
<v Speaker 1>the second aspect then of it, UH is risk management.

0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, you learn to throw out a lot of

0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.280
<v Speaker 1>unfortunately what you learn in college about classic risk management

0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 1>because at the heart of your question about concentration, that's

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.080
<v Speaker 1>really about risk management, and that flies in the face

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 1>of classic risk management theory right of owning smaller pieces

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>of more things to be diversifated, diversified to be lower risk. Actually,

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 1>I think that's completely wrong. What you want to do

0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:00.400
<v Speaker 1>is more own more of less things, but better things

0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.400
<v Speaker 1>to reduce risk. And that's something we really capitalize on

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.040
<v Speaker 1>and our portfolios just make sure we are concentrated with

0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:12.440
<v Speaker 1>capital with much larger positions behind just inherently much better businesses,

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:17.000
<v Speaker 1>much more stable, predictable, higher economic return businesses, better cash

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:20.280
<v Speaker 1>flow profiles. If you put more money behind them, it

0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:23.960
<v Speaker 1>is much lower risk than buying smaller slivers of relatively

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 1>lower quality companies. And then what goes hand in hand

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>with that, as you build that portfolio bottom up, you

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>end up looking what's now called a new term that's

0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 1>been coined more recently benchmark agnostic or benchmarking different. You

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.920
<v Speaker 1>end up looking a whole lot different than the market

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 1>by as a byproduct of your concentration and bottom up

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 1>stock picking, which people are also finding adds a whole

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of value to in terms of delivering outphit and

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 1>avoiding mistakes. So you have a lot of institutional investors.

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.960
<v Speaker 1>They're measured by a benchmark, and I would imagine they

0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 1>have pressure to measure you by a benchmark. What are

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 1>those conversations like when one says, hey, you're either beating

0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.520
<v Speaker 1>or under performing a benchmark, how do you explain, well,

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.880
<v Speaker 1>we're kind of indifferent to the benchmark. What are those

0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.720
<v Speaker 1>conversations like, Yeah, this is UH. I think there's two

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.400
<v Speaker 1>keys to this. UH number one. And then since we're

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:16.360
<v Speaker 1>in you know, new York City. I'll use the great

0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:18.640
<v Speaker 1>Billy Joel quote. You know, when we spend a lot

0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 1>of time bringing our investors on board, I say, you know,

0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 1>you might think we're crazy, but we might. We just

0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>might be the lunatic you're looking for, as a classic

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 1>quote goes, because you've got to really see risk as

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.200
<v Speaker 1>we see it, and it's a binary thing. Some people

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.120
<v Speaker 1>don't buy into that, you know, they can't wrap their

0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>head around it, or they just fundamentally don't believe it.

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 1>They believe more in the classic risk theory we've talked about.

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.160
<v Speaker 1>But if you can get people to buy into that

0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.280
<v Speaker 1>and understand it, and it really helps to show them

0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 1>the past success of utilizing a strategy like that, I

0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:50.600
<v Speaker 1>think that's step one. Step two is your question is

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 1>right on point. You know, you're managing people who all

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.240
<v Speaker 1>have constituents, and your constituents have constituents, and that's what's

0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:59.240
<v Speaker 1>made this business generally more complicated over time, more people watching,

0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 1>with more visibility and more numbers. How do you how

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.639
<v Speaker 1>do you explain things over the short term where benchmark

0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:09.560
<v Speaker 1>in different can cause meaningful relative underperformance. Right, But that's

0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:11.840
<v Speaker 1>the price of admission, you know, that's the price to

0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 1>be paid. For great long term out performance, you have

0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:19.439
<v Speaker 1>to absolutely underperform in certain certain shorter periods. And the

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.560
<v Speaker 1>key to that is education and communication, you know. So

0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 1>it's the buying and the client institutional or retail on

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.760
<v Speaker 1>the onset. So we are that we are the person

0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.679
<v Speaker 1>they're looking for. We are the match because our strategy

0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:33.639
<v Speaker 1>in terms of what we want to own, what we

0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.320
<v Speaker 1>won't own, and how we view risk resonates with them.

0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:38.600
<v Speaker 1>And then once they are on board, you know, I

0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.000
<v Speaker 1>also say there's two pieces of the job from an

0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.679
<v Speaker 1>investing standpoint. One is to deliver the returns on paper,

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:47.240
<v Speaker 1>which is important, but the second aspect, which is equally

0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.680
<v Speaker 1>as important, is getting the client to realize those returns

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 1>by staying on board with you for that journey. And

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.439
<v Speaker 1>that's why the client journey is very important to us.

0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.359
<v Speaker 1>And you manage that through a lot of transparency, a

0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:03.240
<v Speaker 1>lot of open communication, a lot of hand holding. That's

0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:05.960
<v Speaker 1>that's half of your job as an investment manager, you know,

0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.040
<v Speaker 1>not just to put the returns on the paper, but

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:11.679
<v Speaker 1>to keep the person on the bus over that journey.

0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.800
<v Speaker 1>And the key to that is less volatility. Typically, you know,

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.960
<v Speaker 1>it's good it's by products of equality growth style, whereby

0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 1>your downside capture protection is high, right, you preserve capital

0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:26.479
<v Speaker 1>much better when things fall apart recession comes about. And

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.679
<v Speaker 1>then also your overall volatility is dampened over time because

0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:33.280
<v Speaker 1>your businesses are just better and they're not subject to

0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.280
<v Speaker 1>wild swings of volatility. So if you can keep the

0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 1>ride less bumpy, you definitely have a much better chance

0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of keeping your investor in their seat over the ride,

0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:44.800
<v Speaker 1>and then you can accomplish the two key features the

0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 1>returns and having the client there at the end point.

0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:51.280
<v Speaker 1>So so let's address that concept of client journey, because

0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 1>I find that very fascinating. There have been a number

0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:58.800
<v Speaker 1>of del Bar studies and other studies that look at

0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 1>investor behavior here, and the most common takeaway seems to

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:10.199
<v Speaker 1>be investors underperform their own investments, meaning they'll join the

0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 1>bus at the top of the hill and they'll jump

0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:15.639
<v Speaker 1>out at the first move down, but it might just

0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 1>be a little dip and then we're back heading up

0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.679
<v Speaker 1>the hill. Meaning they buy high, they sell low. They

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:24.000
<v Speaker 1>don't write it out for a full cycle. They don't

0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 1>give a manager an opportunity to demonstrate, hey, if you

0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:30.240
<v Speaker 1>bind the philosophy, here's where you should end up over

0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:33.480
<v Speaker 1>five or ten years. How do you deal with that

0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:38.000
<v Speaker 1>client journey aspect. Is it just education and communication from

0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:42.159
<v Speaker 1>the beginning or is that an ongoing issue that requires

0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.520
<v Speaker 1>regular reinforcement. I think it's two things. It's one the

0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:48.640
<v Speaker 1>piece you just mentioned, the ladder, the communication. But one

0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:52.040
<v Speaker 1>it's via this investment philosophy and style that's critical. And

0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>I'll explain that because at the heart of it is

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:57.080
<v Speaker 1>what you mentioned. You know this these old studies, and

0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:58.560
<v Speaker 1>I actually haven't seen the study in a while, but

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure that the numbers are quite similar those classic

0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:03.880
<v Speaker 1>studies of US mutual fund investors. As you pointed out,

0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 1>the returns of look great over the long term on paper,

0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:08.399
<v Speaker 1>but most investors have never achieved those returns because of

0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:12.360
<v Speaker 1>the dynamic you're talking about. And quite frankly, for average

0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.760
<v Speaker 1>or lower quality businesses, and often a benchmark, you might

0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:19.439
<v Speaker 1>need to have a higher timing element because those businesses

0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:21.760
<v Speaker 1>can be mean reverting. If you have a portfolio of

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:25.359
<v Speaker 1>lower quality businesses, whether benchmark or an active manager with

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:29.479
<v Speaker 1>just lower quality businesses, your timing is very important. Right

0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 1>The businesses themselves are going to be mean reverting in

0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:34.520
<v Speaker 1>their economics. If you're in the energy space or bastion

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:38.359
<v Speaker 1>materials ships, those are commodity industries and those commodity prices

0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:41.080
<v Speaker 1>are going to fluctuate, so you better buy low and

0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.199
<v Speaker 1>sell high to make your money. What we want to

0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:48.560
<v Speaker 1>do alongside the communication is with higher quality businesses that

0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:51.760
<v Speaker 1>have these elements we've talked about, lesstality, more durability, a

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 1>real long tail or runway of growth not just one year,

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:59.200
<v Speaker 1>but five, seven, ten, fifty. When you have those types

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:03.639
<v Speaker 1>of businesses, you really can hold through downturns. It's a

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:06.280
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a slight nuanced to understand. Right, it's

0:21:06.280 --> 0:21:09.040
<v Speaker 1>a fallacy to hold a really great business when when

0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:11.720
<v Speaker 1>a cycle turns, because it is going to mean reverting.

0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:14.200
<v Speaker 1>So the buy and hold strategy actually, as it's sort

0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:16.400
<v Speaker 1>of taught and sold. If you have the wrong businesses,

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.760
<v Speaker 1>it shouldn't be aplical. Actually you're you're following the wrong approach.

0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:22.160
<v Speaker 1>But if you have great businesses where you can put

0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:23.880
<v Speaker 1>your head on your pillow at night and no, look,

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 1>not only are they not going out of business even

0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:28.159
<v Speaker 1>in this recession for reasons of A, B and C,

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:30.840
<v Speaker 1>they're going to continue to grow their underlying earnings power.

0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.840
<v Speaker 1>Those type businesses one you can hold onto and sleep well,

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.000
<v Speaker 1>but two you should add to them because the market

0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:39.080
<v Speaker 1>is starting to give you a gift there. But in

0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:41.800
<v Speaker 1>the mean reverting business that we're with, most businesses that

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:44.359
<v Speaker 1>most investors hold by nature their average and you better

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:48.159
<v Speaker 1>buy low and sell high to make a return. You know,

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:51.879
<v Speaker 1>what we're trying to capture is long term earnings compounding.

0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, stock returns and earnings growth are correlated over

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:58.280
<v Speaker 1>the long term. Interestingly enough, stock returns and GDP growth

0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:00.560
<v Speaker 1>aren't very correlated over the long term. But if you

0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:03.280
<v Speaker 1>get the business right and the earnings compounding right, and

0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.480
<v Speaker 1>you own a portfolio and aggregate that has a collective

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:10.080
<v Speaker 1>weighted average rate of earnings compounding, that's attractive. That's what

0:22:10.160 --> 0:22:12.479
<v Speaker 1>your investment returns will be, and that's real add value.

0:22:13.240 --> 0:22:17.680
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit about the investment industry. It's

0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:20.600
<v Speaker 1>been going through a lot of changes. Your firm has

0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:25.679
<v Speaker 1>been around since nine four, uh. Let's let's discuss some

0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:29.280
<v Speaker 1>of these changes. We'll start with active management. It's been

0:22:29.320 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>a rough couple of years. What has for active as

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:36.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the money flows have gone towards passive indexing.

0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:39.880
<v Speaker 1>What's your experience been like over the past, let's call

0:22:39.920 --> 0:22:42.760
<v Speaker 1>a decade. Yeah, I think, as first, our investment experience

0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:45.000
<v Speaker 1>has been very good, you know, owning great businesses that

0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:48.080
<v Speaker 1>grow faster than the benchmark, that are durable and predictable,

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:50.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, has worked and will continue to work. We're

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:54.200
<v Speaker 1>highly confident of that. The industry though, Look, I think

0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:57.160
<v Speaker 1>one I always have a sort of split personality on

0:22:57.160 --> 0:23:00.399
<v Speaker 1>on this in that you know, I hunt, and I

0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 1>don't think I should defend most active managers, right because

0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:05.160
<v Speaker 1>I think the numbers are what they are. I think

0:23:05.160 --> 0:23:07.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of active managers and most don't add value

0:23:07.680 --> 0:23:10.240
<v Speaker 1>quite frankly. So the carnage that goes on and what

0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:14.359
<v Speaker 1>should be a meritocracy of an industry is absolutely proper

0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:17.720
<v Speaker 1>and corrective carnage. The word carnage. Yeah, Look, it's it's

0:23:17.760 --> 0:23:19.840
<v Speaker 1>an industry that's probably had, like a lot of other

0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:23.720
<v Speaker 1>industries along come up and right we've seen you know,

0:23:24.800 --> 0:23:27.120
<v Speaker 1>all the other classic industries hollowed out by either tech

0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:30.399
<v Speaker 1>or new iterations. Right, but this industry, it took a

0:23:30.400 --> 0:23:32.080
<v Speaker 1>while to get to it. You know, there's a lot

0:23:32.119 --> 0:23:33.840
<v Speaker 1>of honey there and it took a while to people

0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:36.000
<v Speaker 1>to focus in on and start squeezing, but it's there

0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:40.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot of complacency for decades, absolutely, so that's coming.

0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 1>And if you are you know, average or lower quality

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 1>like the businesses we look at, you just you shouldn't

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:47.560
<v Speaker 1>be on the playing field, right, So that part I

0:23:47.560 --> 0:23:49.479
<v Speaker 1>think is do and proper and there is no defense

0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:51.000
<v Speaker 1>for that, right you have to add value. And the

0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:53.960
<v Speaker 1>great thing about this this is a performance oriented business,

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:56.480
<v Speaker 1>just like sports, but unlike sports. Actually we play the

0:23:56.480 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 1>game every day and our score is there every day

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:02.280
<v Speaker 1>and the long term. So if you can't deliver, you

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:05.439
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't be there. That's one part. But to the passive side,

0:24:05.920 --> 0:24:08.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's there's two elements that that are driving

0:24:08.800 --> 0:24:10.840
<v Speaker 1>it and one I think is a little more questionable.

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 1>One lower cost and technology certain has helped right e

0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:16.159
<v Speaker 1>t s different vehicles. There's been good innovation there, you know,

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:19.240
<v Speaker 1>as uh Volker said, you know, the best innovation the

0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:21.879
<v Speaker 1>financial industry has been the A t M. Only probably

0:24:21.920 --> 0:24:25.159
<v Speaker 1>technology has really helped would investment products too. For a

0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:27.880
<v Speaker 1>vehicle to get passive even cheaper, that's good. I think.

0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:29.640
<v Speaker 1>The other thing though, people need to be a little

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:32.280
<v Speaker 1>bit cautious about when they look at this huge swing

0:24:32.359 --> 0:24:35.239
<v Speaker 1>we've had to passive over the last decade, roughly has

0:24:35.280 --> 0:24:38.560
<v Speaker 1>been monetary policy. Right? If I always ask it, and

0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:40.800
<v Speaker 1>when we look at a business, even I I often

0:24:40.840 --> 0:24:43.080
<v Speaker 1>ask either my members of my team or or I

0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:47.480
<v Speaker 1>asked myself with this business through all your analysis, if

0:24:47.520 --> 0:24:49.879
<v Speaker 1>I could ask you or give you access to, just

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:53.119
<v Speaker 1>the answer to one question that would really help you

0:24:53.160 --> 0:24:55.520
<v Speaker 1>with this business when you look forward, what would it be?

0:24:55.560 --> 0:24:58.480
<v Speaker 1>Try to synthesize and boil things down into a list

0:24:58.520 --> 0:25:00.720
<v Speaker 1>of things you would like to know but maybe can't

0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:03.520
<v Speaker 1>because they're unpredictable. But try to get to the crux

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 1>of the matter. What's the most important issue that will

0:25:06.320 --> 0:25:08.920
<v Speaker 1>help this business or drive its future growth or success.

0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 1>I think when you look at the overall investing landscape,

0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:15.639
<v Speaker 1>you can ask yourself that similar question about monetary policy. Right.

0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:17.720
<v Speaker 1>If I was going to give you the access to

0:25:17.760 --> 0:25:20.399
<v Speaker 1>a magic lamp with just one wish, right, and it

0:25:20.440 --> 0:25:23.480
<v Speaker 1>would help you to to set the landscape investing wise

0:25:23.480 --> 0:25:25.919
<v Speaker 1>for the next decade. You know, if I had that

0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:28.440
<v Speaker 1>crystal ball, I'd probably ask the genie, you know, what's

0:25:28.480 --> 0:25:33.760
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy for the That's a pretty powerful variable you

0:25:33.800 --> 0:25:37.080
<v Speaker 1>can compound and build a whole lot of decisions around. Right,

0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:39.520
<v Speaker 1>and look at the backdrop we've had. We had a

0:25:39.520 --> 0:25:43.040
<v Speaker 1>FED policy that was at zero, with absolute visibility and

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:47.000
<v Speaker 1>certainty of where it wasn't going for so long. That's

0:25:47.000 --> 0:25:49.480
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good backdrop for passive. I think you know

0:25:50.240 --> 0:25:53.280
<v Speaker 1>now that we've had some at least uncertainty and volatility

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:55.959
<v Speaker 1>and what I would call normalcy back in monetary policy.

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Some people might differ with that opinion, but I think

0:25:58.119 --> 0:26:00.000
<v Speaker 1>this is actually what should be normal. Is it going

0:26:00.240 --> 0:26:03.760
<v Speaker 1>towards well? I think people think I'm normal. I think

0:26:03.800 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>I have to be careful in two terms, normal terms

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:07.160
<v Speaker 1>of where the rate should be, but I'm talking about

0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:09.680
<v Speaker 1>normal more in terms of you just shouldn't know exactly

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:11.720
<v Speaker 1>where it's going. There should be a little bit of uncertainty,

0:26:11.800 --> 0:26:14.560
<v Speaker 1>is it going up down? Staying the same? A little

0:26:14.560 --> 0:26:17.920
<v Speaker 1>bit of uncertainty, not probability, Right, I think that's kind

0:26:17.920 --> 0:26:20.320
<v Speaker 1>of normal. That That goes back to Bernanke during the

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:23.960
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis saying the way we'll stabilize this is to

0:26:24.160 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 1>give people enough guidance that they become comfortable that there's

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:32.919
<v Speaker 1>a liquidly backstop. However, that certainty seems to have carried

0:26:32.960 --> 0:26:38.400
<v Speaker 1>forward far beyond the crisis. I totally agree with the concept. Hey,

0:26:38.440 --> 0:26:41.520
<v Speaker 1>a little uncertainty is not a bad thing when it

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:44.159
<v Speaker 1>comes to monetary policy. Yeah, I think and and I

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:46.719
<v Speaker 1>think good for us. Would we kind of agree on that.

0:26:46.760 --> 0:26:48.840
<v Speaker 1>You're starting to hear some murmurs of that of people

0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:51.639
<v Speaker 1>kind of talk about this. You know, it is maybe

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:54.600
<v Speaker 1>the FED talking a little bit too much, right that

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:56.040
<v Speaker 1>that I think that should be a part of the

0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:57.960
<v Speaker 1>conversation now a little bit. You know, they went to

0:26:58.080 --> 0:27:01.000
<v Speaker 1>this strategy you know, a while ago of more transparency

0:27:01.040 --> 0:27:04.159
<v Speaker 1>and maybe less transparency is a little bit healthier for

0:27:04.320 --> 0:27:06.919
<v Speaker 1>risk and risk in the markets. I actually, you know,

0:27:06.960 --> 0:27:09.840
<v Speaker 1>I I differ on this maybe generally with with my

0:27:09.880 --> 0:27:11.680
<v Speaker 1>opinion too. And Paul, you know, I think Pal is

0:27:11.680 --> 0:27:13.879
<v Speaker 1>doing a great job. Quite frankly, I think there's a

0:27:13.880 --> 0:27:16.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of criticism of him, but if you step back,

0:27:16.359 --> 0:27:18.560
<v Speaker 1>he's probably the right guy at the right point in

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:20.760
<v Speaker 1>time for the job. In terms of his background, we

0:27:20.800 --> 0:27:24.720
<v Speaker 1>always wanted this sort of pragmatic, business oriented guy sort

0:27:24.720 --> 0:27:28.560
<v Speaker 1>of clamored for it versus non economists. And then it's

0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:30.080
<v Speaker 1>like life, you know, then you finally get what you

0:27:30.080 --> 0:27:32.080
<v Speaker 1>want and everybody change their mind. I'll take it a

0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:34.800
<v Speaker 1>step further. I think you can make the argument that

0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:38.719
<v Speaker 1>this could very well be the single best appointment from

0:27:38.760 --> 0:27:41.040
<v Speaker 1>the Trump administration. Yeah, I think I think there's a

0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of credibility in that, you know, definitely, I think Paul,

0:27:44.000 --> 0:27:45.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, as the other quote I'd like to share,

0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:48.280
<v Speaker 1>I think he's trying to do the impossible for the ungrateful, right.

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:50.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you're gonna he's gonna get a whole lot

0:27:50.000 --> 0:27:52.040
<v Speaker 1>of criticism no matter what. He doesn't matter what. But

0:27:52.160 --> 0:27:55.360
<v Speaker 1>I I respect, you know, the steadfastness he's he's falling through,

0:27:55.520 --> 0:27:57.639
<v Speaker 1>he's doing what he said. Maybe he could die by communication,

0:27:57.640 --> 0:28:00.080
<v Speaker 1>but I'm not here to micro manage. But I and

0:28:00.160 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 1>he's he's doing the best to get us back to normalcy,

0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:05.399
<v Speaker 1>which is very hard, right, I mean, getting off that

0:28:05.440 --> 0:28:09.000
<v Speaker 1>emergency footing is it's taken much longer than anyone could

0:28:09.000 --> 0:28:11.680
<v Speaker 1>have expected. And it's not just monetary policy, right. I think.

0:28:11.720 --> 0:28:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I think the world we live in today, as much

0:28:13.359 --> 0:28:15.679
<v Speaker 1>as you know, the hypersensitivity of the news cycle and

0:28:15.720 --> 0:28:18.600
<v Speaker 1>the mediums of delivering news have made it, I actually

0:28:18.680 --> 0:28:21.000
<v Speaker 1>think what we are in is a normal world, right,

0:28:21.040 --> 0:28:23.439
<v Speaker 1>now right, the world is supposed to be uncertain. We're

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be have geopolitical issues, even physical conflict, right,

0:28:27.200 --> 0:28:32.040
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy uncertainty, difficulty for businesses. That's what the world's

0:28:32.160 --> 0:28:34.720
<v Speaker 1>largely been like for a long period of time. We're

0:28:34.760 --> 0:28:38.240
<v Speaker 1>just adjusting and adapting out of an abnormal period, which

0:28:38.280 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 1>is why people are kicking and screaming a little bit

0:28:40.480 --> 0:28:43.120
<v Speaker 1>more so here, let me bring this back to the

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 1>active versus passive question. The thing that I find astonishing

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:52.320
<v Speaker 1>over the past decade is there are a whole slew

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 1>of funds I can think of one of two fidelity

0:28:56.080 --> 0:28:59.240
<v Speaker 1>I could think of without naming fund names or managers

0:28:59.280 --> 0:29:01.600
<v Speaker 1>or whatever. There is a run of funds that I

0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:05.720
<v Speaker 1>have watched shoot the lights out for a decade and

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>they're still seeing outflows. That's sort of hard to reconcile. Yeah,

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:12.360
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, that's the one part that I think,

0:29:12.520 --> 0:29:14.760
<v Speaker 1>uh As I mentioned, you know, technology is gonna bring

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:18.400
<v Speaker 1>about cheaper vehicles as there's been a tremendously difficult asset

0:29:18.440 --> 0:29:21.560
<v Speaker 1>allocation questions people have had to, you know, answer as well.

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:23.480
<v Speaker 1>As you have an aging population and you have to

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>shift towards fixed income, you have actually the wrong time.

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:28.680
<v Speaker 1>You want those sorts of coupons and yields and fixed

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:31.040
<v Speaker 1>income as the assets are shifting that way. So I

0:29:31.040 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>think that's that's a bit of the element I think

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:36.000
<v Speaker 1>you're you're seeing explaining there in that even if you've

0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:38.200
<v Speaker 1>done a good job, you're still seeing outflows because there

0:29:38.280 --> 0:29:41.040
<v Speaker 1>is great at your asset allocation equation going on outside

0:29:41.080 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 1>of us. But I don't mean equity to fixed income.

0:29:44.000 --> 0:29:48.320
<v Speaker 1>You're seeing outflows from outperforming equity net of fees, even

0:29:48.440 --> 0:29:52.320
<v Speaker 1>after fees towards passive. I'm kind of perplexed by that. Yeah,

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:54.880
<v Speaker 1>it's a baby with the bathwater sort of them. Yeah,

0:29:55.160 --> 0:29:56.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think there's there's probably a little bit

0:29:56.920 --> 0:29:58.480
<v Speaker 1>of element of that. I think, you know, they also

0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:01.280
<v Speaker 1>maybe slightly underappreciated thing to that. You know, I also

0:30:01.360 --> 0:30:04.160
<v Speaker 1>have to remind myself and point out to people sometimes

0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:06.840
<v Speaker 1>as if we actually do our job for our clients,

0:30:07.200 --> 0:30:09.200
<v Speaker 1>they're going to take all their money because that's the job.

0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Our job is to take their money from point A

0:30:11.440 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 1>to point B and then they take it all from you. Right,

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 1>But they don't do it because you didn't do your

0:30:15.960 --> 0:30:17.800
<v Speaker 1>your job, or they're unhappy with you. It's because you

0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:20.640
<v Speaker 1>actually accomplished the goal and there you actually should take

0:30:20.640 --> 0:30:23.200
<v Speaker 1>some great satisfaction. You know, we've had some clients like that, particularly,

0:30:23.240 --> 0:30:25.120
<v Speaker 1>you know in the last couple of years where they've

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:27.320
<v Speaker 1>made now they've reached their goals in terms of their

0:30:27.360 --> 0:30:31.160
<v Speaker 1>pension fund you know, uh, targeted returns, and now they

0:30:31.160 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 1>need to shift and ask allocation to a different mode

0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 1>or a different time horizon or fitting their liability Matt,

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:39.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, match now and we've just done our jobs.

0:30:39.920 --> 0:30:42.120
<v Speaker 1>So thank you very much. We've we've delivered what we

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:44.000
<v Speaker 1>had to do. So you you you're gonna always get

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 1>a constant ooment of that too, even with great managers,

0:30:45.920 --> 0:30:48.280
<v Speaker 1>I think losing money. So along those lines, I know

0:30:48.400 --> 0:30:53.840
<v Speaker 1>some people are focused on demographics as an input into markets.

0:30:54.040 --> 0:30:56.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if I've been especially persuaded by it,

0:30:56.640 --> 0:30:59.920
<v Speaker 1>but some people really buy into that thesis. Do you

0:31:00.280 --> 0:31:05.520
<v Speaker 1>think this generational shift into retirement from equities to fixed

0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:07.840
<v Speaker 1>income is going to have an impact on the market

0:31:07.880 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 1>overall or is it just all built in and people

0:31:11.080 --> 0:31:15.240
<v Speaker 1>are are stressing over that shift generational shift way too much. Yeah,

0:31:15.400 --> 0:31:17.160
<v Speaker 1>I think it's people were a little bit hyper sensitive

0:31:17.280 --> 0:31:19.240
<v Speaker 1>into near term issues. You know, I think sort of

0:31:19.280 --> 0:31:20.840
<v Speaker 1>the more things changed, the more they stay the same

0:31:20.880 --> 0:31:23.200
<v Speaker 1>in the long run, you know. So I'm not hypersentive

0:31:23.240 --> 0:31:25.240
<v Speaker 1>to you shift there, and in fact, even if you

0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:27.200
<v Speaker 1>look at your options, I think as an investor, and

0:31:27.400 --> 0:31:29.080
<v Speaker 1>here maybe i'll sound a little bit biased as an

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:32.160
<v Speaker 1>equity guy, I'm actually happy I'm an equity investor and

0:31:32.200 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>not a fixed income investor right now, because I think

0:31:34.360 --> 0:31:37.480
<v Speaker 1>that's a hard job. Seven percent is an appealing that's

0:31:37.760 --> 0:31:39.960
<v Speaker 1>very hard job. So call me lazy, but I just

0:31:40.000 --> 0:31:41.479
<v Speaker 1>think I have an easier job right now as an

0:31:41.480 --> 0:31:44.520
<v Speaker 1>equity investor versus fixed income. To be fair, they've had

0:31:44.520 --> 0:31:47.840
<v Speaker 1>a really easy thirty years and now that seems to

0:31:47.880 --> 0:31:51.200
<v Speaker 1>be coming to its end um, whereas equity investors have

0:31:51.280 --> 0:31:54.680
<v Speaker 1>had a little more challenging couple of decades with between

0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the dot com and the financial crisis. I would say

0:31:57.960 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 1>the roles are now starting to reve No, I agree,

0:32:00.920 --> 0:32:02.760
<v Speaker 1>So that's you know, that's that So maybe yes, now

0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:04.160
<v Speaker 1>it's time for them to pay a little bit of

0:32:04.200 --> 0:32:05.720
<v Speaker 1>a price of admission, right and us to have a

0:32:05.760 --> 0:32:08.240
<v Speaker 1>little easier time. But if you look at the two

0:32:08.520 --> 0:32:10.880
<v Speaker 1>against each other, to your question of whether people will

0:32:10.960 --> 0:32:13.040
<v Speaker 1>or should continue to shift out of equities. I mean,

0:32:13.040 --> 0:32:15.240
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the prospect in the right equity strategy,

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:18.120
<v Speaker 1>still the yield even you're getting there on a coupon.

0:32:18.160 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 1>If you have real cash flow and real access cash

0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:22.960
<v Speaker 1>flow to distribute to your owners of the business, your shareholders,

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:25.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, you can get growth which gives you some

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:28.160
<v Speaker 1>inflation protection plus a coupon. You know. I think equities

0:32:28.160 --> 0:32:30.640
<v Speaker 1>are still very compelling, and that's why. Actually, you know,

0:32:30.640 --> 0:32:33.600
<v Speaker 1>when people ask me about the market now recently, my

0:32:33.600 --> 0:32:35.480
<v Speaker 1>my word for the market, you know, where I was

0:32:35.520 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 1>a bit more concerned at the beginning of the years.

0:32:37.120 --> 0:32:39.840
<v Speaker 1>I think this market has potential. And I use that

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:42.920
<v Speaker 1>word very carefully because it is the word deliberately. I

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:45.080
<v Speaker 1>think you used to describe often a bad sports team

0:32:45.160 --> 0:32:48.120
<v Speaker 1>or an unruly child. Right, here's all these bad things

0:32:48.160 --> 0:32:50.800
<v Speaker 1>you see, But hey, this kid's got potential, right. I

0:32:50.840 --> 0:32:52.880
<v Speaker 1>think the markets a little bit like that. In a

0:32:52.880 --> 0:32:56.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of the issues are correctable that we're concerned about

0:32:56.600 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>or weighing down economics or geopolitics or you know, in

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:03.000
<v Speaker 1>the way of monetary policy. So people should be a

0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:05.600
<v Speaker 1>little bit careful on the equity side to not swing

0:33:05.680 --> 0:33:08.720
<v Speaker 1>too far in sentiment particularly too far negative, because this

0:33:08.840 --> 0:33:10.520
<v Speaker 1>market could have a lot of potential when you look

0:33:10.520 --> 0:33:12.120
<v Speaker 1>at what you can buy, what you pay, and what

0:33:12.240 --> 0:33:14.440
<v Speaker 1>you get still when you pay for it in terms

0:33:14.480 --> 0:33:17.120
<v Speaker 1>of a coupon and growth, it's still quite attractive. And

0:33:17.160 --> 0:33:18.920
<v Speaker 1>then particularly when you start to look at some of

0:33:18.920 --> 0:33:22.600
<v Speaker 1>your alternatives for your capital. Let's talk about markets today

0:33:22.640 --> 0:33:27.400
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Um. You mentioned earlier equities have potential.

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 1>Where do you think we are in the overall equity

0:33:30.800 --> 0:33:35.880
<v Speaker 1>cycle and does that impact the way you construct a portfolio? Yeah?

0:33:35.920 --> 0:33:37.680
<v Speaker 1>I think, uh, you know, now we're digging into the

0:33:37.680 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollar question right right where is the world going? Uh?

0:33:41.200 --> 0:33:43.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, and and not to dodge it in classic faction,

0:33:44.160 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 1>but you know, we want to build a portfolio where

0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:48.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't need to know the answer to the question

0:33:48.160 --> 0:33:50.400
<v Speaker 1>number one. I think that's the key to investment success,

0:33:50.560 --> 0:33:54.400
<v Speaker 1>not having to answer these trillion dollar questions. And you can,

0:33:54.880 --> 0:33:57.560
<v Speaker 1>remarkably you can invest that way without having to need

0:33:57.600 --> 0:33:59.800
<v Speaker 1>to know that answer. But putting that aside, and just

0:34:00.480 --> 0:34:04.200
<v Speaker 1>which by the way, is arguably unknowable. Yeah, exactly, you know,

0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:07.840
<v Speaker 1>the the the unknown owns or however the Rumsfeld and

0:34:08.160 --> 0:34:10.600
<v Speaker 1>you know quote goes Uh, but if I think if

0:34:10.600 --> 0:34:12.520
<v Speaker 1>you step back, you know, honestly, in terms of looking

0:34:12.520 --> 0:34:14.920
<v Speaker 1>at the data and the facts, you know, uh, the

0:34:14.960 --> 0:34:18.320
<v Speaker 1>economic cycle you know has still good underpinnings if you

0:34:18.320 --> 0:34:20.040
<v Speaker 1>look at the fundamentals of the U. S economy. But

0:34:20.040 --> 0:34:22.239
<v Speaker 1>we gotta say we're later stage at an earlier stage, right,

0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:24.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think just having some context of where

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:26.160
<v Speaker 1>you are is the only thing you can kind of

0:34:26.200 --> 0:34:28.160
<v Speaker 1>get down to if you are top down. And I

0:34:28.160 --> 0:34:29.880
<v Speaker 1>think even that can help though as well. And that

0:34:30.200 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 1>I say that too in that you know, you've seen

0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:35.160
<v Speaker 1>this little fits and start around the market and in

0:34:35.239 --> 0:34:37.319
<v Speaker 1>this concern of well people shift out of growth to

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:39.439
<v Speaker 1>value again. You know, we've also we've talked a little

0:34:39.440 --> 0:34:42.319
<v Speaker 1>about fixed income equity and passive active, but there's also

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:45.440
<v Speaker 1>been this other battle going on or raging between styles

0:34:45.480 --> 0:34:47.879
<v Speaker 1>and growth and value. And value had had a long

0:34:47.920 --> 0:34:49.600
<v Speaker 1>period of success and then has now been in the

0:34:49.680 --> 0:34:52.759
<v Speaker 1>dulgrums and people are just waiting with bated breath for

0:34:52.800 --> 0:34:54.799
<v Speaker 1>this big rotation back. And the problem there I have

0:34:54.960 --> 0:34:56.440
<v Speaker 1>to your you know, sort of where are we in

0:34:56.440 --> 0:34:59.440
<v Speaker 1>the cycle question is the only place where you find

0:34:59.480 --> 0:35:01.719
<v Speaker 1>a bit of rel to cheapness comes with a lot

0:35:01.760 --> 0:35:04.560
<v Speaker 1>more commisure at risk in terms of cyclicality. So if

0:35:04.600 --> 0:35:07.200
<v Speaker 1>you want to wade into those waters here, you better

0:35:07.239 --> 0:35:09.880
<v Speaker 1>know the answer to the question you're asking me, because

0:35:09.920 --> 0:35:11.840
<v Speaker 1>that's the danger in investing when you look at a

0:35:11.880 --> 0:35:15.239
<v Speaker 1>p that might look relatively cheaper, but the E disappears.

0:35:15.480 --> 0:35:17.839
<v Speaker 1>So actually you thought you underpaid, but you ended up

0:35:17.920 --> 0:35:21.160
<v Speaker 1>overpaying because your E wasn't predictable and disappeared, which is

0:35:21.200 --> 0:35:23.000
<v Speaker 1>also a big piece of the risk you want to

0:35:23.000 --> 0:35:25.680
<v Speaker 1>mitigate with better quality businesses as a starting point, as

0:35:25.680 --> 0:35:27.640
<v Speaker 1>long as you know where the E is or should

0:35:27.760 --> 0:35:30.920
<v Speaker 1>roughly be, you can actually can start to strike a

0:35:30.960 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 1>more appropriate approximation of what that business is worth. But

0:35:34.280 --> 0:35:36.680
<v Speaker 1>when the E is uncertain, you've got to know where

0:35:36.680 --> 0:35:38.680
<v Speaker 1>you are in the cycle. And as I said in context,

0:35:38.719 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 1>you have to think we're later rather than earlier. So

0:35:41.840 --> 0:35:46.880
<v Speaker 1>if you can identify a company with a predictable, reliable E,

0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:51.720
<v Speaker 1>a reliable earning stream, does that company demands a premium

0:35:51.760 --> 0:35:54.239
<v Speaker 1>as an investor? Is it a higher valuation for that

0:35:54.760 --> 0:35:57.319
<v Speaker 1>earning stream? Yeah? I think that's you know, the other

0:35:57.640 --> 0:36:00.960
<v Speaker 1>human nature element. You know, we capitalize on, and I

0:36:00.960 --> 0:36:04.239
<v Speaker 1>think people need to capitalize on right we're, as people were,

0:36:04.239 --> 0:36:06.399
<v Speaker 1>sort of generally a bit cheap. Right. We're always looking

0:36:06.440 --> 0:36:09.040
<v Speaker 1>for a deal. Right. That's why sales work, signs work,

0:36:09.080 --> 0:36:12.319
<v Speaker 1>advertising works. Deal deal, deal x per cent off. It's

0:36:12.360 --> 0:36:15.319
<v Speaker 1>like a magnet, right, we are attracted to that. That's

0:36:15.440 --> 0:36:18.040
<v Speaker 1>human nature and what you miss and that when you

0:36:18.120 --> 0:36:21.640
<v Speaker 1>take that behavior aspect to the finance world into investing

0:36:21.800 --> 0:36:24.160
<v Speaker 1>is the reality that you get what you pay for

0:36:24.200 --> 0:36:27.479
<v Speaker 1>in life, very much so in investing. So to your question, yes,

0:36:27.520 --> 0:36:30.840
<v Speaker 1>you should pay more for a better business with a

0:36:30.920 --> 0:36:34.200
<v Speaker 1>longer tale of earnings growth. Because also one problem we

0:36:34.239 --> 0:36:36.839
<v Speaker 1>have in investing in the finance world is we're as

0:36:36.920 --> 0:36:39.960
<v Speaker 1>many smart people are in this industry and as sophisticated

0:36:39.960 --> 0:36:43.040
<v Speaker 1>as the industry is, it's actually still pretty rudimentary when

0:36:43.040 --> 0:36:45.640
<v Speaker 1>we look at important things like valuation. Right, people often

0:36:45.640 --> 0:36:49.160
<v Speaker 1>are looking at pe simplistically pe one or f y

0:36:49.280 --> 0:36:51.680
<v Speaker 1>one p out one year. There's a real lack of

0:36:51.719 --> 0:36:54.799
<v Speaker 1>imagination right in that in that analysis, right, because the

0:36:54.840 --> 0:36:57.600
<v Speaker 1>earnings where they are in five years should be what

0:36:57.640 --> 0:36:59.719
<v Speaker 1>really matters. Where they are in ten years should be

0:36:59.760 --> 0:37:03.280
<v Speaker 1>where what really matters. Right, So, if you're myopically stuck

0:37:03.440 --> 0:37:05.719
<v Speaker 1>in this world where you're looking at current p or

0:37:05.760 --> 0:37:07.960
<v Speaker 1>even just f y one or f y two p E,

0:37:08.520 --> 0:37:10.880
<v Speaker 1>you're really missing the forest for the trees there. You

0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:13.719
<v Speaker 1>need that E five and ten years out. And that's

0:37:13.719 --> 0:37:16.919
<v Speaker 1>where quote unquote paying up for it or paying more

0:37:17.040 --> 0:37:20.000
<v Speaker 1>for it today actually is delivering you a lot of

0:37:20.000 --> 0:37:23.319
<v Speaker 1>inherent investment value because that embedded value is out in

0:37:23.360 --> 0:37:25.400
<v Speaker 1>the tail, the tail of the growth of the business

0:37:25.400 --> 0:37:28.400
<v Speaker 1>and the sustainability of the business. That so, in other words,

0:37:28.600 --> 0:37:31.399
<v Speaker 1>you're a long term investor, is what you're saying here.

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:33.600
<v Speaker 1>It's one of the only advantages you can have, right,

0:37:33.600 --> 0:37:35.760
<v Speaker 1>it's the basics. And when we stick to the basics,

0:37:35.760 --> 0:37:38.439
<v Speaker 1>and look, you know, call us you know, or say

0:37:38.560 --> 0:37:41.080
<v Speaker 1>maybe we have a lack of imagination because like all

0:37:41.160 --> 0:37:43.839
<v Speaker 1>great things, often great business is great fortunes. Right, we

0:37:43.840 --> 0:37:46.080
<v Speaker 1>we stole it from someone else. We we took it

0:37:46.120 --> 0:37:48.640
<v Speaker 1>from Warren Buffett. Right, we took the playbook and we

0:37:48.760 --> 0:37:51.680
<v Speaker 1>just try to apply discipline with a great team and

0:37:51.719 --> 0:37:53.600
<v Speaker 1>a stable team to that. I think that's where you

0:37:53.600 --> 0:37:56.799
<v Speaker 1>add a lot of value to and continuity knowledge is cumulative.

0:37:56.960 --> 0:37:59.279
<v Speaker 1>Having a great team intact for a long period of time.

0:38:00.040 --> 0:38:03.920
<v Speaker 1>All buying in buying into the investment religion being disciplined.

0:38:04.200 --> 0:38:06.319
<v Speaker 1>You have to be long term to your question, it's

0:38:06.440 --> 0:38:10.719
<v Speaker 1>it's the one basic advantage you need to exercise. Yet

0:38:10.840 --> 0:38:13.359
<v Speaker 1>we live in a world in an investment construct where

0:38:13.400 --> 0:38:16.400
<v Speaker 1>everything is happening to fight that right, Everything is trying

0:38:16.400 --> 0:38:20.120
<v Speaker 1>to break you down from the long term right. And

0:38:20.160 --> 0:38:22.759
<v Speaker 1>that's also why when people look about you're talking about

0:38:22.760 --> 0:38:25.120
<v Speaker 1>investing today, you know, has it gotten harder, easier? Actually,

0:38:25.160 --> 0:38:28.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, the dynamics are are quite similar. Once again,

0:38:28.000 --> 0:38:29.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, the more they change, the more they stay

0:38:29.480 --> 0:38:31.960
<v Speaker 1>the same. The environment has probably gotten more volatile and

0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:35.480
<v Speaker 1>more violent. So the advantage of buying hold or patience

0:38:35.600 --> 0:38:37.840
<v Speaker 1>is as prevalent, I think as it ever was. I

0:38:37.880 --> 0:38:40.680
<v Speaker 1>think the distractions are greater today and faster today than

0:38:40.680 --> 0:38:43.200
<v Speaker 1>ever before. But I have to ask you a question,

0:38:43.520 --> 0:38:50.000
<v Speaker 1>Um that you alluded to with um predictions. And I'm

0:38:50.000 --> 0:38:52.279
<v Speaker 1>not asking you to make a prediction. I'm asking you,

0:38:52.760 --> 0:38:56.680
<v Speaker 1>how do you, as a portfolio manager deal with what

0:38:56.960 --> 0:39:02.400
<v Speaker 1>seems like a never ending stream of geopolitical events occurring

0:39:02.920 --> 0:39:05.920
<v Speaker 1>in real time. So earlier in the fall, we had

0:39:05.920 --> 0:39:09.120
<v Speaker 1>the impeachment inquiry begin in the House of Representatives, you

0:39:09.239 --> 0:39:16.319
<v Speaker 1>had the Brexit slash. Um UK Supreme Court eleven two. Oh, repudiate,

0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:21.720
<v Speaker 1>Boris Johnson. You've been a global investor, a European investor,

0:39:21.800 --> 0:39:25.240
<v Speaker 1>now a US investor. Do you look at or even

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:28.719
<v Speaker 1>think about these geopolitical events or are they just background

0:39:28.800 --> 0:39:33.200
<v Speaker 1>noise that do not affect the E five years out?

0:39:34.000 --> 0:39:36.799
<v Speaker 1>I think there's two pieces, you know. One, you really do,

0:39:36.920 --> 0:39:38.600
<v Speaker 1>as we've talked a lot about, have to be just

0:39:38.760 --> 0:39:41.279
<v Speaker 1>focused on the business, business, business. But on the other hand,

0:39:41.680 --> 0:39:43.400
<v Speaker 1>you do have to have a pulse, a finger on

0:39:43.440 --> 0:39:45.200
<v Speaker 1>the pulse you know, of the market where they're at,

0:39:45.200 --> 0:39:48.800
<v Speaker 1>because that's what can bring you greater opportunity, right understanding

0:39:49.400 --> 0:39:51.960
<v Speaker 1>what the general feeling and sentiment is and where that's

0:39:52.280 --> 0:39:55.960
<v Speaker 1>detached from real long term reality. So you do as

0:39:55.960 --> 0:39:57.719
<v Speaker 1>a portfolio manager and as investor. I think I have

0:39:57.800 --> 0:40:00.440
<v Speaker 1>to have your hand in both of those buckets, right,

0:40:00.480 --> 0:40:02.720
<v Speaker 1>the most important one though, still being get the business

0:40:02.800 --> 0:40:05.440
<v Speaker 1>right and the key to managing as you've said, and

0:40:05.480 --> 0:40:08.520
<v Speaker 1>we've done it quite successfully fortunately, all this as I

0:40:08.560 --> 0:40:11.200
<v Speaker 1>called it earlier, to this return to normalcy and volatility,

0:40:11.239 --> 0:40:14.920
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty with tariffs and trades and and and and political shifts.

0:40:15.160 --> 0:40:17.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, the best way we've been prepared for that

0:40:17.320 --> 0:40:20.600
<v Speaker 1>is having businesses that wouldn't be largely affected by that,

0:40:20.680 --> 0:40:22.640
<v Speaker 1>and that sort of shocked people sometimes, Yeah, you can

0:40:22.680 --> 0:40:25.240
<v Speaker 1>do that. Actually, you know, you you can have businesses

0:40:25.280 --> 0:40:27.560
<v Speaker 1>that are much less affected by the macro, much less

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:30.960
<v Speaker 1>affected by the geopolitics, you know, much better, less affected

0:40:30.960 --> 0:40:34.799
<v Speaker 1>by shifts in disruption in certain industries. That's been your

0:40:34.840 --> 0:40:37.160
<v Speaker 1>best game plan over the last couple of years versus

0:40:37.160 --> 0:40:40.120
<v Speaker 1>trying to predict the next tweet and where tariffs are

0:40:40.160 --> 0:40:43.279
<v Speaker 1>going or the next outcome of the next election. Right,

0:40:43.480 --> 0:40:46.400
<v Speaker 1>that has been your road to success. But having your

0:40:46.440 --> 0:40:48.799
<v Speaker 1>finger on the pulse, as I mentioned though, does help

0:40:49.080 --> 0:40:51.440
<v Speaker 1>when you realize people are getting a bit mannic about it.

0:40:51.480 --> 0:40:53.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, we are we are people, and we get

0:40:53.480 --> 0:40:56.080
<v Speaker 1>frenzied and we get manic. So if you do follow this,

0:40:56.160 --> 0:40:58.319
<v Speaker 1>and we do, you know you follow closely. I read

0:40:58.360 --> 0:41:00.440
<v Speaker 1>three newspapers a day. I think you you have to

0:41:00.520 --> 0:41:03.520
<v Speaker 1>keep keep your finger in the flow of how public

0:41:03.560 --> 0:41:06.880
<v Speaker 1>sentiment is moving because you can use that to your advantage.

0:41:06.880 --> 0:41:09.120
<v Speaker 1>Back in the investment world, even with quality companies taking

0:41:09.120 --> 0:41:12.600
<v Speaker 1>advantage of excessive pestimism or optimism. What about something that

0:41:13.040 --> 0:41:16.080
<v Speaker 1>UH started regionally and now is looking like it might

0:41:16.120 --> 0:41:19.759
<v Speaker 1>become global something like negative interest rates. Japan has had

0:41:19.760 --> 0:41:21.880
<v Speaker 1>them for a while, they seem to be now expanding.

0:41:22.280 --> 0:41:25.960
<v Speaker 1>In Europe they are literally trillions of dollars with a

0:41:26.040 --> 0:41:29.839
<v Speaker 1>negative coupon. Can this come to the United States? Do

0:41:29.920 --> 0:41:32.560
<v Speaker 1>you worry about whether or not this will have an

0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:36.640
<v Speaker 1>impact on your portfolio? Yeah? I'm much more worried longer

0:41:36.760 --> 0:41:39.160
<v Speaker 1>term about binary events, you know, than I need to

0:41:39.239 --> 0:41:41.840
<v Speaker 1>because of our style of day to day or cyclical events.

0:41:42.320 --> 0:41:45.120
<v Speaker 1>And there's two I worry about one. I think, you know,

0:41:45.280 --> 0:41:47.000
<v Speaker 1>there is no such thing as a free lunch in

0:41:47.040 --> 0:41:51.840
<v Speaker 1>this this this these experiments and exaggeration and extremism and

0:41:51.880 --> 0:41:55.680
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy, they have a payback, right, and we all

0:41:55.840 --> 0:41:57.080
<v Speaker 1>we all kind of have an idea of what it

0:41:57.080 --> 0:41:59.680
<v Speaker 1>could be, but we won't guess it exactly and will

0:41:59.719 --> 0:42:02.520
<v Speaker 1>probably miss out on the magnitude of it. But there

0:42:02.560 --> 0:42:05.640
<v Speaker 1>will be a payback for the negative interest rate environment, right.

0:42:05.680 --> 0:42:08.160
<v Speaker 1>There is no free lunch on that. So that going

0:42:08.239 --> 0:42:10.160
<v Speaker 1>to be you know, I think in the bond market

0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:12.200
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be very difficult because you know, this

0:42:12.280 --> 0:42:14.400
<v Speaker 1>is often where we don't sort of see around the corner, right,

0:42:14.440 --> 0:42:17.560
<v Speaker 1>We're focused on the near term goals. You know, a

0:42:17.640 --> 0:42:20.600
<v Speaker 1>major central banking goal, right is to spur inflation, right,

0:42:20.640 --> 0:42:23.840
<v Speaker 1>and let's you know, if if God forbid, they're successful

0:42:23.880 --> 0:42:26.560
<v Speaker 1>in that, you're going to decimate coupon investors, right. So

0:42:26.840 --> 0:42:28.880
<v Speaker 1>it's in order to achieve their goal, they're actually going

0:42:28.960 --> 0:42:30.919
<v Speaker 1>to cause the great damage at the end of the day.

0:42:31.280 --> 0:42:33.960
<v Speaker 1>So I think that is clearly still the problem. You know,

0:42:34.000 --> 0:42:35.880
<v Speaker 1>there is this tendency, and I know it's sort of

0:42:35.880 --> 0:42:38.520
<v Speaker 1>been like the you know, screaming fire in a crowded

0:42:38.560 --> 0:42:40.400
<v Speaker 1>movie theater for a while. You know, fear of inflation,

0:42:40.440 --> 0:42:42.839
<v Speaker 1>fear of inflation, fear of inflation. I can't tell you

0:42:43.040 --> 0:42:44.520
<v Speaker 1>when it's going to happen, but I can tell you

0:42:44.520 --> 0:42:47.200
<v Speaker 1>there's great effort to do it, and there are tools

0:42:47.239 --> 0:42:48.799
<v Speaker 1>to really do it if you want to go to

0:42:48.840 --> 0:42:52.040
<v Speaker 1>extreme end. So that will end up in a poor payback,

0:42:52.239 --> 0:42:55.520
<v Speaker 1>I think for investors who are in negative yielding security,

0:42:55.600 --> 0:42:58.399
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's a problem. The other issue I think,

0:42:58.480 --> 0:43:01.200
<v Speaker 1>aside from that in the Interest rate Act drop is

0:43:01.200 --> 0:43:02.960
<v Speaker 1>what we're facing in terms of I call it this

0:43:03.000 --> 0:43:05.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of Balkanization of the world. You know, what we

0:43:05.640 --> 0:43:09.320
<v Speaker 1>see and playing out in geopolitics is not about terrorists

0:43:09.400 --> 0:43:11.879
<v Speaker 1>it's not about a current account deficit, you know, has

0:43:11.920 --> 0:43:15.640
<v Speaker 1>wider framifications. If we continue, we're sort of pushing this world.

0:43:15.719 --> 0:43:17.640
<v Speaker 1>And I'm not saying continue in terms of a political

0:43:17.640 --> 0:43:19.680
<v Speaker 1>sense of being right or wrong, but just the path

0:43:19.719 --> 0:43:22.160
<v Speaker 1>we're on generally speaking, which I think doesn't have to

0:43:22.200 --> 0:43:25.400
<v Speaker 1>do with just one present or one admits, meaning deglobalization

0:43:25.680 --> 0:43:29.279
<v Speaker 1>or something more special, not necessarily a total deglobalization. But

0:43:29.360 --> 0:43:31.440
<v Speaker 1>you you split the world into two spheres, you know,

0:43:31.480 --> 0:43:33.279
<v Speaker 1>they'll be the US Western sphere, and then they'll be

0:43:33.360 --> 0:43:35.719
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese sphere, right, and they'll be people who have

0:43:35.760 --> 0:43:37.120
<v Speaker 1>to make a choice or countries that have to make

0:43:37.120 --> 0:43:39.200
<v Speaker 1>a choice of which sandbox you want to play in? Right,

0:43:39.239 --> 0:43:40.480
<v Speaker 1>the rules are going to be different in the two

0:43:40.520 --> 0:43:42.920
<v Speaker 1>different sandboxes, which is where the tension is today. Right,

0:43:43.000 --> 0:43:46.080
<v Speaker 1>the the US and the Lightheisers are saying, look, you're

0:43:46.080 --> 0:43:49.040
<v Speaker 1>in our sandbox. There's rules to playing in our sandbox,

0:43:49.360 --> 0:43:50.960
<v Speaker 1>and you haven't been following the rules. You know, we

0:43:51.080 --> 0:43:52.960
<v Speaker 1>let you go for a while, but now you need

0:43:53.040 --> 0:43:54.480
<v Speaker 1>to follow the rules or you gotta get out of

0:43:54.480 --> 0:43:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the sandbox. As the extreme sort of outcome, and the outcome,

0:43:58.040 --> 0:44:00.960
<v Speaker 1>as I said, the extreme result could be a balkanization

0:44:01.000 --> 0:44:02.680
<v Speaker 1>where they say, look, we'll get out of your sandbox.

0:44:02.680 --> 0:44:05.240
<v Speaker 1>Who wants to come in our sandbox? You know? And

0:44:05.239 --> 0:44:07.759
<v Speaker 1>and then you have this whole ecosystem around Asia, word

0:44:07.800 --> 0:44:10.319
<v Speaker 1>becomes a bigger shoe. Like Taiwan. They're in a pickle, right,

0:44:10.320 --> 0:44:13.719
<v Speaker 1>which sandbox are you in there? South Korea? Which sandbox

0:44:13.760 --> 0:44:16.840
<v Speaker 1>are you in there? That's alongside interest rates, that's a

0:44:16.960 --> 0:44:19.400
<v Speaker 1>These are both longer term issues, clearly, but those are

0:44:19.520 --> 0:44:23.640
<v Speaker 1>longer term binary issues that if anything, worry me a

0:44:23.640 --> 0:44:26.279
<v Speaker 1>little bit, right. It makes the world a bit more complicated.

0:44:26.320 --> 0:44:29.279
<v Speaker 1>It makes the success or collective success a lot of

0:44:29.360 --> 0:44:32.480
<v Speaker 1>us could have had a lot harder to achieve. Uh,

0:44:32.520 --> 0:44:36.120
<v Speaker 1>it's very disruptive and and and in the downside, as

0:44:36.120 --> 0:44:37.880
<v Speaker 1>I said, mostly is we just miss out on what

0:44:37.920 --> 0:44:39.759
<v Speaker 1>we could have had, you know, in a collective world.

0:44:39.800 --> 0:44:41.360
<v Speaker 1>But it look at it's life. It is what it is.

0:44:41.360 --> 0:44:43.439
<v Speaker 1>I in a passing judgment whether it's good or about

0:44:43.440 --> 0:44:45.520
<v Speaker 1>it either, you know, I think it's just the reality.

0:44:45.680 --> 0:44:47.560
<v Speaker 1>And that's investing what we have to deal with reality,

0:44:47.600 --> 0:44:50.080
<v Speaker 1>not hopes and dreams. Hope isn't a strategy, as they say,

0:44:50.080 --> 0:44:52.160
<v Speaker 1>We've got to deal with reality and the reality is

0:44:52.160 --> 0:44:55.200
<v Speaker 1>we're fracturing. So so let's talk about strategies. Since you

0:44:55.280 --> 0:45:00.239
<v Speaker 1>mentioned that Von Tobel has six broad investment strategies, what

0:45:00.400 --> 0:45:04.000
<v Speaker 1>areas do you focus on within those six and how

0:45:04.080 --> 0:45:08.080
<v Speaker 1>much of this is global, European, Asian and US or

0:45:08.200 --> 0:45:13.440
<v Speaker 1>more specifically different approaches by style. This is where we're

0:45:13.480 --> 0:45:16.480
<v Speaker 1>actually a little bit unique. You know, it's hard to

0:45:16.480 --> 0:45:18.680
<v Speaker 1>say you're unique and different in the asset management industry.

0:45:18.840 --> 0:45:23.000
<v Speaker 1>Poor fully managers analysts products. It seems pretty homogeneous, right,

0:45:23.040 --> 0:45:25.560
<v Speaker 1>But our team is is sort of rare and unique

0:45:25.560 --> 0:45:28.440
<v Speaker 1>in that the same team manage manages those six strategies,

0:45:28.480 --> 0:45:30.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, not just myself sitting at the head of it.

0:45:30.239 --> 0:45:33.080
<v Speaker 1>I have a collective group of really talented individuals who

0:45:33.239 --> 0:45:37.279
<v Speaker 1>support all these products simultaneously and as analysts. And there's

0:45:37.280 --> 0:45:39.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of investment value in that having the same

0:45:39.680 --> 0:45:42.200
<v Speaker 1>analyst work on a US equity fund and an emerging

0:45:42.239 --> 0:45:44.239
<v Speaker 1>market's equity fund. And it's the way we've been doing

0:45:44.239 --> 0:45:46.840
<v Speaker 1>it for two decades. Same skill sets can apply anywhere

0:45:46.840 --> 0:45:48.880
<v Speaker 1>in the world, and the world in the businesses compete

0:45:48.880 --> 0:45:52.800
<v Speaker 1>across geography surprise surprise, right, and and analyzing a fundamental

0:45:52.840 --> 0:45:54.800
<v Speaker 1>business of whether it's a great business and average or

0:45:54.800 --> 0:45:58.120
<v Speaker 1>a poor quality business. Perspective is the key to that, right.

0:45:58.200 --> 0:46:01.279
<v Speaker 1>Life is all about perspective, and invest things about perspective too,

0:46:01.719 --> 0:46:04.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, as the old saying goes, Also, you know,

0:46:04.160 --> 0:46:06.040
<v Speaker 1>to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

0:46:06.120 --> 0:46:08.359
<v Speaker 1>So you don't want to pigeonhole people, right. You need

0:46:08.440 --> 0:46:10.440
<v Speaker 1>them to see a lot of nails. You need to

0:46:10.480 --> 0:46:14.160
<v Speaker 1>see broad perspective. So being global and structure as analysts

0:46:14.640 --> 0:46:18.120
<v Speaker 1>really helps the scrutinization of what's a great business because

0:46:18.120 --> 0:46:20.160
<v Speaker 1>we can look at one in Indonesia, and we can

0:46:20.160 --> 0:46:22.560
<v Speaker 1>look at one in Ohio and try to figure out

0:46:22.600 --> 0:46:24.920
<v Speaker 1>what are the nuts and bolts that make these great businesses,

0:46:24.960 --> 0:46:27.880
<v Speaker 1>And then we're totally agnostic to where it is because

0:46:27.880 --> 0:46:30.319
<v Speaker 1>we have a group of portfolios where that name will

0:46:30.320 --> 0:46:33.080
<v Speaker 1>then try to compete to get entrance into and all

0:46:33.120 --> 0:46:36.560
<v Speaker 1>of our portfolios from a regional basis, our competitions for

0:46:36.640 --> 0:46:40.520
<v Speaker 1>capital our universe eliminates. It creates a smaller pond. Out

0:46:40.520 --> 0:46:43.399
<v Speaker 1>of the pond comes a smaller subsegment of names. Out

0:46:43.400 --> 0:46:46.040
<v Speaker 1>of those names, we build regional portfolios. The best of

0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:49.560
<v Speaker 1>those investment opportunities compete up the pyramid up to the

0:46:49.560 --> 0:46:52.000
<v Speaker 1>top to our global portfolio. So it's not just an

0:46:52.000 --> 0:46:55.600
<v Speaker 1>amalgamation of the geographic portfolios, but it's the best of

0:46:55.640 --> 0:46:58.359
<v Speaker 1>the best of those names competing for each other and

0:46:58.480 --> 0:47:01.319
<v Speaker 1>having the proper you know, risk diversification alongside of it.

0:47:01.360 --> 0:47:03.000
<v Speaker 1>What the businesses do where they do it, so the

0:47:03.040 --> 0:47:07.279
<v Speaker 1>fundamental risk is contained and managed. That that's absolutely fascinating.

0:47:07.760 --> 0:47:11.239
<v Speaker 1>The one question I have to ask about that are

0:47:11.239 --> 0:47:15.960
<v Speaker 1>there any particular geographic regions around the world that you

0:47:16.120 --> 0:47:21.560
<v Speaker 1>find are either misunderstood by investors or for reasons that

0:47:21.640 --> 0:47:27.480
<v Speaker 1>aren't especially clear, significantly underinvested. When you look around the world,

0:47:28.000 --> 0:47:31.200
<v Speaker 1>I think the emerging markets is the class quite frankly,

0:47:31.520 --> 0:47:34.080
<v Speaker 1>and uh, you know, I've been actually talking to some

0:47:34.120 --> 0:47:36.120
<v Speaker 1>clients recently about this. I'm gonna bring up a name

0:47:36.160 --> 0:47:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you might know, the name Elmer Wheeler, right, I don't

0:47:38.120 --> 0:47:39.960
<v Speaker 1>know if you've ever familiar. You know, he was around

0:47:40.000 --> 0:47:42.040
<v Speaker 1>in the nineteen thirties and the depression. He was a

0:47:42.040 --> 0:47:44.319
<v Speaker 1>newspaper reporter in a near and dear to your heart,

0:47:44.560 --> 0:47:46.880
<v Speaker 1>and he was fired in the depression as a newspaper

0:47:46.880 --> 0:47:49.160
<v Speaker 1>reporter because his boss said, I don't need any reporters.

0:47:49.160 --> 0:47:52.200
<v Speaker 1>Amore I needs salespeople, and Elmer Wheeler, you know, as

0:47:52.239 --> 0:47:53.920
<v Speaker 1>a pragmatic guy, said all right, I'm gonna be a

0:47:53.960 --> 0:47:57.160
<v Speaker 1>great salesperson, and he coined the term that sort of

0:47:57.200 --> 0:47:58.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot of us know today is an old fashioned

0:47:58.760 --> 0:48:02.680
<v Speaker 1>marketing term. Don't sell the stake, sell the sizzle, right,

0:48:02.760 --> 0:48:04.600
<v Speaker 1>And it's sort of a classic you think about how

0:48:04.760 --> 0:48:07.399
<v Speaker 1>marketing has evolved, a classic thought, right, don't sell the stake,

0:48:07.719 --> 0:48:10.480
<v Speaker 1>sell the sizzle. And I think the misunderstanding to your

0:48:10.560 --> 0:48:13.480
<v Speaker 1>question on emerging markets is largely because there's been a

0:48:13.480 --> 0:48:16.239
<v Speaker 1>lot of sizzle sold. You know, emerging markets has a

0:48:16.280 --> 0:48:19.080
<v Speaker 1>great sizzle story. You know, people consume less of this

0:48:19.160 --> 0:48:21.319
<v Speaker 1>and they'll consume more of that. You know, they're they're

0:48:21.360 --> 0:48:24.120
<v Speaker 1>these poor people, they'll get richer, you know, all these elements.

0:48:24.160 --> 0:48:27.080
<v Speaker 1>It's a great sizzle right on top of everything else.

0:48:27.520 --> 0:48:30.359
<v Speaker 1>The new expensive world. It plays right into it. And

0:48:30.520 --> 0:48:33.880
<v Speaker 1>I think that's been fundamentally wrong in that not that

0:48:33.920 --> 0:48:37.239
<v Speaker 1>emerging markets aren't attractive, but it should be about the

0:48:37.320 --> 0:48:39.759
<v Speaker 1>stake of emerging markets, and that you should go to

0:48:39.840 --> 0:48:42.439
<v Speaker 1>emerging markets, and you really should because there are great

0:48:42.480 --> 0:48:46.080
<v Speaker 1>businesses there. I forget the sizzle story. And and let's

0:48:46.120 --> 0:48:49.000
<v Speaker 1>also take the fact into consideration that if you bought

0:48:49.040 --> 0:48:51.880
<v Speaker 1>the sizzle story, which if you sort of play that

0:48:51.920 --> 0:48:54.800
<v Speaker 1>out in a number in GDP growth, right, the emerging

0:48:54.840 --> 0:48:57.480
<v Speaker 1>markets take out China and India over the last two decades,

0:48:57.520 --> 0:49:01.080
<v Speaker 1>basically their composition or percentage of GDP has been flat.

0:49:01.120 --> 0:49:03.520
<v Speaker 1>So you haven't seen the sizzle sizzle, sizzle story outside

0:49:03.520 --> 0:49:05.520
<v Speaker 1>of India and China. So if you bought the sizzle,

0:49:05.560 --> 0:49:07.719
<v Speaker 1>you've been disappointed. Good news, as I mentioned earlier, as

0:49:07.760 --> 0:49:10.640
<v Speaker 1>GDP growth isn't necessarily correlated with stock returns. So if

0:49:10.680 --> 0:49:13.200
<v Speaker 1>you've got the steak right, if you've got the great

0:49:13.239 --> 0:49:17.280
<v Speaker 1>businesses right, and what's unique and misunderstood about emerging markets

0:49:17.280 --> 0:49:19.520
<v Speaker 1>I think is there's actually steak there you can't get

0:49:19.520 --> 0:49:22.440
<v Speaker 1>in the developed markets. There's actually businesses and business models

0:49:22.840 --> 0:49:25.600
<v Speaker 1>you can't get back in the developed markets, And that

0:49:25.719 --> 0:49:28.320
<v Speaker 1>to me is why you should be in emerging markets.

0:49:28.360 --> 0:49:30.640
<v Speaker 1>It should be about the businesses, as all investing I

0:49:30.680 --> 0:49:33.279
<v Speaker 1>think should be, as we've talked about today. So go

0:49:33.400 --> 0:49:36.319
<v Speaker 1>to emerging markets for the steak, not the sizzle. Go

0:49:36.400 --> 0:49:38.960
<v Speaker 1>there because there's great businesses you can't get in the

0:49:39.000 --> 0:49:41.600
<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred, or you can't get elsewhere. I think

0:49:41.600 --> 0:49:44.839
<v Speaker 1>that's a big misunderstanding, stiff, quite fascinating. Can you stick

0:49:44.880 --> 0:49:46.400
<v Speaker 1>around a little bit. I have a few more questions

0:49:46.400 --> 0:49:49.800
<v Speaker 1>for you. Absolutely, we have been speaking with Matt Benkendorf,

0:49:50.000 --> 0:49:54.319
<v Speaker 1>ce IO of Untomble Quality Growth. If you enjoy this conversation,

0:49:54.440 --> 0:49:56.959
<v Speaker 1>be sure and come back for the podcast extras, where

0:49:56.960 --> 0:50:00.160
<v Speaker 1>we keep the tape rolling and continue discussing all all

0:50:00.200 --> 0:50:04.000
<v Speaker 1>things quality growth. You can find that at Apple iTunes,

0:50:04.040 --> 0:50:08.840
<v Speaker 1>Google podcast stitchers, Spotify, wherever your final podcasts are sold.

0:50:09.280 --> 0:50:12.960
<v Speaker 1>We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us

0:50:13.120 --> 0:50:16.839
<v Speaker 1>at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. Be sure

0:50:16.840 --> 0:50:19.600
<v Speaker 1>to give us a review on Apple iTunes. You can

0:50:19.680 --> 0:50:23.520
<v Speaker 1>check out my weekly column on Bloomberg dot com. Sign

0:50:23.600 --> 0:50:26.480
<v Speaker 1>up from my daily reads at Rid Halts dot com.

0:50:26.480 --> 0:50:29.560
<v Speaker 1>Follow me on Twitter at Rid Halts. I'm Barry Ritolts.

0:50:29.760 --> 0:50:33.000
<v Speaker 1>You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

0:50:35.440 --> 0:50:37.680
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the podcast, Matt. Thank you so much for

0:50:37.760 --> 0:50:41.640
<v Speaker 1>doing this. I have to tell you, I find your

0:50:41.680 --> 0:50:46.120
<v Speaker 1>approach and what Untable Quality Growth does to be kind

0:50:46.160 --> 0:50:49.640
<v Speaker 1>of unique and interesting. I know everybody thinks they're unique,

0:50:49.880 --> 0:50:53.920
<v Speaker 1>but really, the the approach you guys take especially with

0:50:54.000 --> 0:50:57.840
<v Speaker 1>a single investment committee investing all around the world Europe, Asia,

0:50:57.880 --> 0:51:02.600
<v Speaker 1>Global and US that it's kind of rare. How has

0:51:02.719 --> 0:51:06.480
<v Speaker 1>this structure worked out in terms of your your various

0:51:06.560 --> 0:51:10.320
<v Speaker 1>UM funds performances? Yeah, I think you know, two keys

0:51:10.320 --> 0:51:12.839
<v Speaker 1>there were quite proud of our results, right, and we're

0:51:12.880 --> 0:51:15.200
<v Speaker 1>quite proud one and what we've achieved in terms of

0:51:15.239 --> 0:51:18.080
<v Speaker 1>annualized out performance of a couple hundred basis points across

0:51:18.160 --> 0:51:21.600
<v Speaker 1>different geographies, so that the style and philosophy has achieved

0:51:21.600 --> 0:51:25.160
<v Speaker 1>alpha generation in places like Europe and the US and

0:51:25.400 --> 0:51:30.000
<v Speaker 1>emerging markets and global equity simultaneously. That's you've maybe surprising, right,

0:51:30.480 --> 0:51:32.560
<v Speaker 1>one mouse trap does work. Actually, you don't need a

0:51:32.560 --> 0:51:34.719
<v Speaker 1>different emerging markets mouse trap, which is also I think

0:51:34.719 --> 0:51:36.360
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a fallacy. Sometimes you don't need a

0:51:36.360 --> 0:51:38.919
<v Speaker 1>different mouse trap for this market. You need one good

0:51:38.920 --> 0:51:41.600
<v Speaker 1>style approach. You just need discipline then in a good team.

0:51:41.680 --> 0:51:45.840
<v Speaker 1>How how rare is that approach where one team is

0:51:45.880 --> 0:51:48.680
<v Speaker 1>doing US and the same team is doing emerging market

0:51:49.040 --> 0:51:52.759
<v Speaker 1>and Asia and Europe and global investing from the same

0:51:52.760 --> 0:51:55.719
<v Speaker 1>group of analysts. I think it was extremely rare. Two

0:51:55.760 --> 0:51:59.279
<v Speaker 1>decades ago, I think more of started to move that

0:51:59.320 --> 0:52:01.600
<v Speaker 1>way A little it in more recent years, probably the

0:52:01.719 --> 0:52:03.960
<v Speaker 1>last five or seven years, just because businesses have launched

0:52:04.000 --> 0:52:06.160
<v Speaker 1>and then they've launched simultaneous products, so they've just sort

0:52:06.160 --> 0:52:09.239
<v Speaker 1>of had technology has to admit it easier to sit

0:52:09.280 --> 0:52:11.319
<v Speaker 1>in the US and be global as opposed to the

0:52:11.320 --> 0:52:14.799
<v Speaker 1>old days where boots on the ground were required. Yeah. Absolutely,

0:52:14.840 --> 0:52:17.200
<v Speaker 1>And as you know, businesses have developed now, and those

0:52:17.200 --> 0:52:20.280
<v Speaker 1>analysts found this false wall between you know, the Asian

0:52:20.280 --> 0:52:22.360
<v Speaker 1>tech analysts and the US tech analysts to be a

0:52:22.440 --> 0:52:25.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit, you know, lower than the wall used to seem.

0:52:25.239 --> 0:52:27.279
<v Speaker 1>I think that's led people towards our model, but I

0:52:27.320 --> 0:52:30.400
<v Speaker 1>think I still think the model is more rare. I

0:52:30.440 --> 0:52:32.560
<v Speaker 1>think it does add a lot of value for investors

0:52:32.600 --> 0:52:34.680
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, particularly as I always

0:52:34.719 --> 0:52:36.920
<v Speaker 1>have to be careful with our investment philosophy, you know.

0:52:36.960 --> 0:52:40.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that's something people often misunderstood. You misunderstand rather,

0:52:40.920 --> 0:52:42.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, they can find something that works, but certain

0:52:42.960 --> 0:52:46.040
<v Speaker 1>things that work work in the right situation, right and

0:52:46.040 --> 0:52:48.120
<v Speaker 1>and people often try to take that what works and

0:52:48.160 --> 0:52:49.879
<v Speaker 1>put it in the wrong situation and they wonder why

0:52:49.920 --> 0:52:53.560
<v Speaker 1>it failed. So when you are very narrow and restrictive

0:52:53.560 --> 0:52:55.560
<v Speaker 1>in what you're trying to look at and what you're

0:52:55.600 --> 0:52:57.640
<v Speaker 1>only willing to ever buy. You know, when you think

0:52:57.640 --> 0:52:59.840
<v Speaker 1>about risk the way we think about it, when you

0:53:00.000 --> 0:53:02.600
<v Speaker 1>think knowledge is cumulative, when you have longer term holding periods,

0:53:02.600 --> 0:53:06.000
<v Speaker 1>when you have lower turnover, right, you can really then

0:53:06.160 --> 0:53:09.319
<v Speaker 1>do this successfully with one team. You know, we have

0:53:09.440 --> 0:53:11.960
<v Speaker 1>across all of our portfolios, you know, a hundred and

0:53:12.000 --> 0:53:15.400
<v Speaker 1>sixty odd names right in the turnover of names annually

0:53:15.480 --> 0:53:19.640
<v Speaker 1>is maybe so with a team of twenty one, you

0:53:19.680 --> 0:53:22.000
<v Speaker 1>don't need a whole lot of new idea generation. We

0:53:22.040 --> 0:53:24.960
<v Speaker 1>do have good new idea generation. You do have to

0:53:24.960 --> 0:53:27.719
<v Speaker 1>sell in harvest names. We have evaluation sensitivity and a

0:53:27.760 --> 0:53:30.200
<v Speaker 1>strict valuation approach, so you do have to replace names

0:53:30.200 --> 0:53:33.560
<v Speaker 1>that do reach fair value. But the process and the

0:53:33.560 --> 0:53:35.920
<v Speaker 1>philosophy is what enables us to have success on a

0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:37.880
<v Speaker 1>global basis with the structure. I don't know if that

0:53:37.960 --> 0:53:40.880
<v Speaker 1>necessarily would work for people who are more benchmark oriented,

0:53:40.960 --> 0:53:42.160
<v Speaker 1>right they just want to plus or mind us the

0:53:42.200 --> 0:53:44.440
<v Speaker 1>benchmark wade in country and sector. They might need a

0:53:44.440 --> 0:53:45.719
<v Speaker 1>whole lot more people, and they might need to be

0:53:45.719 --> 0:53:49.000
<v Speaker 1>a little more focused from a strategic standpoint of certain products.

0:53:49.040 --> 0:53:51.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, it's not it's not my you know approach,

0:53:51.640 --> 0:53:53.480
<v Speaker 1>but I think for us it works very well. So

0:53:53.480 --> 0:53:57.720
<v Speaker 1>so a hundred and sixty names, constantly servicing new names,

0:53:58.040 --> 0:54:01.920
<v Speaker 1>how do you make the determination? And so we went earlier,

0:54:01.960 --> 0:54:04.360
<v Speaker 1>we went over negative screen, get rid of stuff you

0:54:04.400 --> 0:54:07.800
<v Speaker 1>don't want to look at, a handful of fundamental bottoms

0:54:07.880 --> 0:54:12.160
<v Speaker 1>up approach to narrow your list. And and I'm assuming

0:54:12.200 --> 0:54:15.360
<v Speaker 1>that the top of that list is still a pretty

0:54:15.480 --> 0:54:19.600
<v Speaker 1>big grouping how do you make the determination? This is

0:54:19.719 --> 0:54:23.239
<v Speaker 1>the best idea of that group because it feels like

0:54:23.360 --> 0:54:26.120
<v Speaker 1>some of that is quantitative, but a lot of it

0:54:26.200 --> 0:54:30.080
<v Speaker 1>is subjective and a little squishy. Yeah, there's two elements.

0:54:30.120 --> 0:54:33.479
<v Speaker 1>I think. One that's often underappreciated when people think about

0:54:33.520 --> 0:54:35.759
<v Speaker 1>what you buy, and they often think of it very

0:54:35.840 --> 0:54:39.400
<v Speaker 1>much in a clean slate approach, right. But one is

0:54:39.680 --> 0:54:43.839
<v Speaker 1>perspective once again in that we have a live portfolio,

0:54:44.000 --> 0:54:47.239
<v Speaker 1>and that live portfolio isn't sort of an organic organism, right,

0:54:47.280 --> 0:54:50.680
<v Speaker 1>It's an accumulation of thousands of decisions already that have

0:54:50.760 --> 0:54:52.920
<v Speaker 1>been built upon each other. Why we own what we

0:54:52.960 --> 0:54:57.160
<v Speaker 1>own today and what size is a consequence of millions

0:54:57.200 --> 0:55:00.040
<v Speaker 1>of interacting things. So that I think is im and

0:55:00.239 --> 0:55:03.400
<v Speaker 1>to understand as your litmus tests or starting point be

0:55:03.480 --> 0:55:07.200
<v Speaker 1>meaning the new new idea has to be a fit relative.

0:55:07.440 --> 0:55:12.120
<v Speaker 1>You don't want excess concentration geographically, sector, whatever, or how

0:55:12.200 --> 0:55:16.400
<v Speaker 1>does the existing portfolio help decide what the next idea

0:55:16.440 --> 0:55:19.120
<v Speaker 1>that comes in is. That's what you mentioned is the

0:55:19.200 --> 0:55:22.880
<v Speaker 1>latter I would mention before that, though, the key determinant

0:55:22.960 --> 0:55:26.960
<v Speaker 1>is this new idea or business, how is it better

0:55:27.000 --> 0:55:30.080
<v Speaker 1>than what we already own? That's the first litmus test.

0:55:30.280 --> 0:55:34.839
<v Speaker 1>We've accumulated over time via several decisions, this group of

0:55:34.840 --> 0:55:37.880
<v Speaker 1>concentration of these businesses that we like for these reasons.

0:55:37.880 --> 0:55:41.040
<v Speaker 1>So now when we evaluate this next business there, how

0:55:41.440 --> 0:55:43.880
<v Speaker 1>is it better than the weaker links in the current

0:55:43.920 --> 0:55:46.920
<v Speaker 1>portfolio in terms of their relative lower quality versus the

0:55:47.000 --> 0:55:50.320
<v Speaker 1>highest quality names in the portfolio? That is a litmus

0:55:50.320 --> 0:55:52.800
<v Speaker 1>test is very important to the long term investment journey,

0:55:52.840 --> 0:55:55.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, holding yourself to get over that hurdle over time.

0:55:55.719 --> 0:55:58.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that's one piece first, and then the other

0:55:58.640 --> 0:56:01.759
<v Speaker 1>pieces you point out then is okay, if you hold

0:56:01.760 --> 0:56:04.000
<v Speaker 1>that first hard crew test there where you've got to

0:56:04.040 --> 0:56:06.719
<v Speaker 1>replace a name if it's going to gain entrance, right,

0:56:07.400 --> 0:56:11.160
<v Speaker 1>Maybe sometimes it isn't about replacement. This business is equally

0:56:11.200 --> 0:56:14.720
<v Speaker 1>as good as a name we already owned, but it

0:56:14.840 --> 0:56:17.719
<v Speaker 1>offers something else from a risk dynamic, which is nice.

0:56:17.760 --> 0:56:20.520
<v Speaker 1>And that's where we think about risk very fundamentally. I

0:56:20.560 --> 0:56:22.920
<v Speaker 1>think there's way too much focus on the Greek letters

0:56:23.000 --> 0:56:24.640
<v Speaker 1>as I as I call them the bait as, the

0:56:24.680 --> 0:56:27.400
<v Speaker 1>standard deviations, et cetera. I think they're a byproduct or

0:56:27.440 --> 0:56:30.880
<v Speaker 1>they fall out of a good risk management process and approach.

0:56:30.920 --> 0:56:33.800
<v Speaker 1>They're not the starting point. The starting point of a

0:56:33.800 --> 0:56:37.800
<v Speaker 1>good rich management appross is fundamental, good old fashioned risk management.

0:56:38.040 --> 0:56:40.920
<v Speaker 1>What is the business, What drives the business? What are

0:56:40.920 --> 0:56:43.279
<v Speaker 1>the economics of the business, what does it do? Where

0:56:43.360 --> 0:56:47.040
<v Speaker 1>does it do it? Forget the statistics first that and

0:56:47.080 --> 0:56:51.320
<v Speaker 1>then the accumulation of several businesses together as you own them,

0:56:51.360 --> 0:56:55.200
<v Speaker 1>having if you can get there, some idiosyncratic drivers, right,

0:56:55.239 --> 0:56:58.760
<v Speaker 1>equally good businesses. But what drives this horse is different

0:56:58.760 --> 0:57:01.919
<v Speaker 1>from what drives this horse over here. That's great risk

0:57:02.000 --> 0:57:04.000
<v Speaker 1>management if you can achieve that over time. So in

0:57:04.120 --> 0:57:06.640
<v Speaker 1>your question, you know the decision to get into the portfolios,

0:57:06.640 --> 0:57:08.440
<v Speaker 1>you need to upgrade the quality of the portfolio if

0:57:08.480 --> 0:57:10.759
<v Speaker 1>you do it, or to hand in hand with that,

0:57:11.120 --> 0:57:14.120
<v Speaker 1>how do you improve the fundamental risk dynamics the portfolio

0:57:14.160 --> 0:57:16.560
<v Speaker 1>by giving your investors a collective group of business which

0:57:16.600 --> 0:57:20.400
<v Speaker 1>is still growing attractively, still durable and predictable, but maybe

0:57:20.400 --> 0:57:23.520
<v Speaker 1>has a slightly different of syncratic driver, whereby you do

0:57:23.640 --> 0:57:26.400
<v Speaker 1>have some diversification benefits. So I'm gonna ask you a question.

0:57:26.440 --> 0:57:29.000
<v Speaker 1>I suspect I know the answer, but I'm compelled to

0:57:29.040 --> 0:57:35.000
<v Speaker 1>ask it. Anyway, Most investors have a tendency to swap

0:57:35.040 --> 0:57:39.680
<v Speaker 1>out something that is just suffering a temporary price setback,

0:57:39.840 --> 0:57:44.880
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily a decrease in business quality, for whatever the

0:57:45.040 --> 0:57:48.080
<v Speaker 1>shiny new thing of the day happens to be. How

0:57:48.120 --> 0:57:52.720
<v Speaker 1>do you avoid that sort of process where something maybe

0:57:52.880 --> 0:57:55.280
<v Speaker 1>is just you know, under performing for a quarter or two,

0:57:56.080 --> 0:57:59.400
<v Speaker 1>but there's nothing along with the fundamental business, and yet

0:57:59.480 --> 0:58:01.640
<v Speaker 1>here comes is the pretty new thing. How do you

0:58:02.360 --> 0:58:07.280
<v Speaker 1>avoid that temptation? Yeah? I think one element is certainly

0:58:08.040 --> 0:58:10.400
<v Speaker 1>human temperament, right, I think that's the skill that you

0:58:10.480 --> 0:58:12.840
<v Speaker 1>add as a portfolio manager, on top of being a

0:58:12.840 --> 0:58:15.640
<v Speaker 1>good analyst over time. It's temperament. Temperament comes with experience,

0:58:15.680 --> 0:58:18.959
<v Speaker 1>but temperament is somewhat chemically wired in you as a being.

0:58:19.000 --> 0:58:20.720
<v Speaker 1>As you said, you know that tendency to not jump

0:58:20.720 --> 0:58:24.160
<v Speaker 1>for the next shiny object. You you have to have

0:58:24.200 --> 0:58:26.080
<v Speaker 1>a temperament for that, or at least develop a good

0:58:26.080 --> 0:58:29.960
<v Speaker 1>temperament for that. And I think, as you describe properly,

0:58:30.400 --> 0:58:33.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of times, particularly with great businesses, you need

0:58:33.760 --> 0:58:36.120
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of patients rights. Even the greatest businesses

0:58:36.120 --> 0:58:38.880
<v Speaker 1>with even as Buffett has described them, the widest moats,

0:58:39.320 --> 0:58:42.000
<v Speaker 1>face threats. There's people always trying to sack the castle,

0:58:42.280 --> 0:58:44.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, and cross the moat of the best businesses

0:58:44.360 --> 0:58:47.040
<v Speaker 1>with the biggest moats, and you can't be too hyper

0:58:47.080 --> 0:58:49.600
<v Speaker 1>sensitive to that. Over time, you have to realize that

0:58:49.720 --> 0:58:52.280
<v Speaker 1>what seems like a crack on the wall of your castle,

0:58:52.360 --> 0:58:54.600
<v Speaker 1>when you get a cloth and start to wipe it,

0:58:54.600 --> 0:58:57.320
<v Speaker 1>it's just a blemish, right, and it wipes away. So

0:58:57.600 --> 0:58:59.960
<v Speaker 1>I think you do need to balance great sound decision

0:59:00.040 --> 0:59:03.680
<v Speaker 1>making with good temperament and patients perspective, experience and also

0:59:03.760 --> 0:59:07.240
<v Speaker 1>some innate chemical composition helps so that. But the other

0:59:07.280 --> 0:59:10.640
<v Speaker 1>piece then you have to appreciate is your own limitations too,

0:59:10.800 --> 0:59:13.160
<v Speaker 1>right and where you can fall into these classic pitfalls.

0:59:13.160 --> 0:59:15.640
<v Speaker 1>So you do have to know yourself too as an investor,

0:59:15.680 --> 0:59:18.240
<v Speaker 1>and they're one element that also makes us different a

0:59:18.240 --> 0:59:21.080
<v Speaker 1>little bit as a team and as a firm, we know,

0:59:21.160 --> 0:59:23.360
<v Speaker 1>with all these good things I've just talked about, the

0:59:23.440 --> 0:59:27.640
<v Speaker 1>single biggest risk with our style over time is complacency

0:59:27.720 --> 0:59:32.480
<v Speaker 1>with patients. Patients can easily be synonymous with complacency sometimes also,

0:59:32.840 --> 0:59:36.720
<v Speaker 1>so what we've done very successfully to combat complacency, which

0:59:36.800 --> 0:59:40.520
<v Speaker 1>is the single biggest investment risk with great businesses complacency

0:59:40.680 --> 0:59:42.600
<v Speaker 1>is we have three members of our twenty one member

0:59:42.640 --> 0:59:46.360
<v Speaker 1>investment team that are former investigative journalists. They're not classic

0:59:46.920 --> 0:59:49.840
<v Speaker 1>investment analysts. They're not your classic NBA's or come out

0:59:49.880 --> 0:59:53.160
<v Speaker 1>of consultancy or business. They don't have sector coverage, they

0:59:53.160 --> 0:59:56.000
<v Speaker 1>don't have stock responsibility, they don't pick stocks, value stocks.

0:59:56.480 --> 1:00:00.440
<v Speaker 1>They're there to fight complacency. They're there as former instigative

1:00:00.480 --> 1:00:04.040
<v Speaker 1>journalists from you know, from New York. We it's like

1:00:04.200 --> 1:00:06.040
<v Speaker 1>I always use the analogy here too. It's like if

1:00:06.080 --> 1:00:08.680
<v Speaker 1>you're getting married and you you wanted the dossier on

1:00:08.720 --> 1:00:10.720
<v Speaker 1>your spouse before you got married. You want to know

1:00:10.800 --> 1:00:13.560
<v Speaker 1>everything just you want to face it, accept it, you know.

1:00:13.680 --> 1:00:15.240
<v Speaker 1>Kind of That's kind of where we want to be

1:00:15.280 --> 1:00:17.680
<v Speaker 1>as investors, right. We want to know everything bad about

1:00:17.760 --> 1:00:20.680
<v Speaker 1>the business, large or small, and then The success in

1:00:20.680 --> 1:00:24.640
<v Speaker 1>investing then ultimately comes with calibrating the sensitivity to those

1:00:24.720 --> 1:00:28.320
<v Speaker 1>large and small negative aspects. But every business, like every person,

1:00:28.840 --> 1:00:31.920
<v Speaker 1>has some negative things to be learned or gleamed. The

1:00:32.000 --> 1:00:34.240
<v Speaker 1>key as an investors just to make sure you know them,

1:00:34.480 --> 1:00:37.560
<v Speaker 1>make sure you know all available information. So you have

1:00:37.720 --> 1:00:41.880
<v Speaker 1>you have three people looking at all the individual names

1:00:41.880 --> 1:00:45.120
<v Speaker 1>in the portfolio or the possible adds to the portfolio.

1:00:45.160 --> 1:00:50.080
<v Speaker 1>Were both constantly challenging from a devil's advocacy position, weaknesses

1:00:50.080 --> 1:00:53.440
<v Speaker 1>in our businesses when anything new comes up, digging deeper

1:00:53.520 --> 1:00:56.800
<v Speaker 1>and into those issues and ferreting out the real facts

1:00:56.800 --> 1:00:59.480
<v Speaker 1>of the matter so we can accumulate at least determine

1:00:59.520 --> 1:01:02.800
<v Speaker 1>our own, you know, our own view of the issue,

1:01:02.880 --> 1:01:04.520
<v Speaker 1>rather than just read the headline of the issue which

1:01:04.520 --> 1:01:08.280
<v Speaker 1>someone else built upon their own facts. So they're fact finders,

1:01:08.640 --> 1:01:11.520
<v Speaker 1>their devil's advocates. They're there to challenge us day to day.

1:01:11.520 --> 1:01:14.200
<v Speaker 1>They're there to challenge even great businesses over the long term,

1:01:14.480 --> 1:01:16.680
<v Speaker 1>and then very specifically where they've also been able to

1:01:16.720 --> 1:01:19.920
<v Speaker 1>help us. A lot is looking into narrower issues with

1:01:20.040 --> 1:01:22.800
<v Speaker 1>the business which might not be negative, could be positive,

1:01:23.040 --> 1:01:26.200
<v Speaker 1>but a fundamental analyst maybe when they prioritize their time.

1:01:26.560 --> 1:01:29.360
<v Speaker 1>It could be smaller yet important. But we can dedicate

1:01:29.360 --> 1:01:32.400
<v Speaker 1>a journalist to dig deeper on a singular issue rather

1:01:32.440 --> 1:01:34.640
<v Speaker 1>than the analyst, you know, get Meyer down in the

1:01:34.680 --> 1:01:36.960
<v Speaker 1>fog of war in this one small issue, while they

1:01:37.000 --> 1:01:40.320
<v Speaker 1>accumulate the bigger, broader picture of the underlying company. That's

1:01:40.320 --> 1:01:42.200
<v Speaker 1>where they can add a lot of value too. So

1:01:42.480 --> 1:01:45.479
<v Speaker 1>here's the question, and really it's how do you deal

1:01:45.520 --> 1:01:49.919
<v Speaker 1>with this? It's very tempting to get sucked in by

1:01:50.040 --> 1:01:53.400
<v Speaker 1>some of the negative narratives. They seem to be much

1:01:53.440 --> 1:01:59.560
<v Speaker 1>more resonant emotionally. It's what sells right, they're compelling. You know,

1:02:00.280 --> 1:02:02.640
<v Speaker 1>someone wrote a piece sometime ago, and I don't want

1:02:02.640 --> 1:02:05.640
<v Speaker 1>to quote the wrong author, about when when the Right

1:02:05.720 --> 1:02:09.000
<v Speaker 1>brothers did their first flight, there was no newspaper story,

1:02:09.040 --> 1:02:11.960
<v Speaker 1>No one paid attention. You guys have going around with flight.

1:02:12.400 --> 1:02:15.120
<v Speaker 1>What is this gonna become some real industry? It was

1:02:15.760 --> 1:02:19.520
<v Speaker 1>like a ten years before anyone really took notice. Positive

1:02:19.560 --> 1:02:23.080
<v Speaker 1>stories sort of fall by the wayside because it requires

1:02:23.080 --> 1:02:28.160
<v Speaker 1>some imagination. Here's how this could change the world. Negative stories,

1:02:28.680 --> 1:02:32.080
<v Speaker 1>it's a genuine existential threat to yourself. It's a risk

1:02:32.240 --> 1:02:36.160
<v Speaker 1>we're wired to respond to negative threats in a much

1:02:36.200 --> 1:02:40.920
<v Speaker 1>more robust manner than we are to um respond to

1:02:41.640 --> 1:02:45.080
<v Speaker 1>positive incentives, or so it seems sometimes, how do you

1:02:45.120 --> 1:02:48.960
<v Speaker 1>avoid that? Hey, all this negative stuff is so easily

1:02:49.440 --> 1:02:52.600
<v Speaker 1>emotionally compelling. Let's just get rid of this joke. Yeah,

1:02:52.680 --> 1:02:56.080
<v Speaker 1>I think experience, you know, experience working in this way

1:02:56.160 --> 1:02:58.360
<v Speaker 1>with the structure of a team with these individuals has

1:02:58.360 --> 1:03:00.560
<v Speaker 1>been very important. It's been a learning curve from the beginning.

1:03:00.680 --> 1:03:02.600
<v Speaker 1>So it was an idea at the beginning of how

1:03:02.640 --> 1:03:05.200
<v Speaker 1>they could fit really well with how we invest and

1:03:05.240 --> 1:03:08.240
<v Speaker 1>the idea was very simple, right one. Given that period

1:03:08.280 --> 1:03:10.000
<v Speaker 1>you go back, you know, ten fifteen years ago, the

1:03:10.040 --> 1:03:12.280
<v Speaker 1>carnage and the news industry had already started. You had

1:03:12.320 --> 1:03:15.600
<v Speaker 1>read a great smart people there where the industry was

1:03:15.640 --> 1:03:18.880
<v Speaker 1>being affected by technology, and they were now available, so

1:03:18.920 --> 1:03:22.200
<v Speaker 1>to speak. Number one. Number two, what reporters clearly do

1:03:22.400 --> 1:03:25.880
<v Speaker 1>very well, uh in their job is find a subject

1:03:25.960 --> 1:03:28.960
<v Speaker 1>they often maybe know nothing about, and figure it out,

1:03:29.000 --> 1:03:31.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, start the building blocks of what makes it tick,

1:03:32.040 --> 1:03:34.640
<v Speaker 1>to figure out whether to you know, not to skip

1:03:34.680 --> 1:03:36.160
<v Speaker 1>head to your end point, whether story is good or bad,

1:03:36.240 --> 1:03:38.600
<v Speaker 1>or just what the story is. Number one. So that

1:03:38.720 --> 1:03:41.960
<v Speaker 1>was a great analytical skill, and the other one that's

1:03:42.080 --> 1:03:45.440
<v Speaker 1>most underappreciated. I think where you actually find a differentiation

1:03:45.480 --> 1:03:49.320
<v Speaker 1>between good or bad or better or worse analysts is

1:03:49.760 --> 1:03:52.760
<v Speaker 1>everybody can be smart. Everybody can find facts. Everybody can

1:03:52.800 --> 1:03:55.400
<v Speaker 1>then maybe even put the story together. But can you

1:03:55.400 --> 1:03:58.000
<v Speaker 1>actually then spit it out and regurgitate it so someone

1:03:58.040 --> 1:04:00.680
<v Speaker 1>can do something with the information. And that's I think

1:04:00.960 --> 1:04:03.720
<v Speaker 1>something that investors struggle with two and really smart people

1:04:03.760 --> 1:04:06.000
<v Speaker 1>sometimes struggle with. Right, they just know so much and

1:04:06.040 --> 1:04:07.640
<v Speaker 1>they can put it together in their own mind, but

1:04:08.120 --> 1:04:09.960
<v Speaker 1>they either aren't in the position to make a decision

1:04:10.000 --> 1:04:11.640
<v Speaker 1>or they can't make a decision because they just can't

1:04:11.680 --> 1:04:14.160
<v Speaker 1>spit it out. And newspaper reporters obviously that's their job,

1:04:14.240 --> 1:04:17.040
<v Speaker 1>right they need to put it into a sellable fashion,

1:04:17.320 --> 1:04:20.400
<v Speaker 1>which means it's articulate, and you need the articulation to

1:04:20.400 --> 1:04:21.800
<v Speaker 1>be able to make a decision and know what you're

1:04:21.840 --> 1:04:24.520
<v Speaker 1>dealing with. So I know of a couple of hedge

1:04:24.520 --> 1:04:30.680
<v Speaker 1>funds that do something very similar. Describe um Vannabelle's structure.

1:04:30.760 --> 1:04:33.600
<v Speaker 1>How are you form investors? Are they s m A s?

1:04:33.640 --> 1:04:36.880
<v Speaker 1>Are they funds? How are they putting dollars to work with?

1:04:36.880 --> 1:04:39.760
<v Speaker 1>With your firm. Our business is roughly a mix I

1:04:39.800 --> 1:04:42.960
<v Speaker 1>would say of half half, you know, between more institutional

1:04:42.960 --> 1:04:46.680
<v Speaker 1>oriented investors and then more retail and oriented investors. And

1:04:46.680 --> 1:04:50.400
<v Speaker 1>in that world, we're a manufacturer of an investment product

1:04:50.400 --> 1:04:53.160
<v Speaker 1>where a style approach of discipline, we deliver an investment product.

1:04:53.440 --> 1:04:55.160
<v Speaker 1>And then our partner, who in the u S is

1:04:55.240 --> 1:04:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Vertus Investment Advisors. They're the distributor of the product to

1:04:58.160 --> 1:05:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the end retail investors. So we're removed from them, but

1:05:00.320 --> 1:05:02.920
<v Speaker 1>we help hold them along a journey. So the retail

1:05:02.920 --> 1:05:05.960
<v Speaker 1>investor they buying s m A separately managed accounts, are

1:05:05.960 --> 1:05:08.680
<v Speaker 1>they buying mutual funds? They're generally buying mutual funds. You know,

1:05:08.760 --> 1:05:10.440
<v Speaker 1>we have a we actually as a firm and a

1:05:10.440 --> 1:05:12.800
<v Speaker 1>well developed firm. We have the whole suite of structures

1:05:13.000 --> 1:05:16.360
<v Speaker 1>products for our end investors. So we can manage subadvised accounts,

1:05:16.440 --> 1:05:19.160
<v Speaker 1>we can subadvise mutual funds, we can manage mutual funds.

1:05:19.160 --> 1:05:21.240
<v Speaker 1>And we have basically half half our business. And then

1:05:21.240 --> 1:05:23.840
<v Speaker 1>also i'd cut our business also again another half half

1:05:24.200 --> 1:05:26.760
<v Speaker 1>North America, US focused and international. We have quite a

1:05:26.760 --> 1:05:31.040
<v Speaker 1>global business, right the parent company Switzerland based, is that right?

1:05:31.320 --> 1:05:34.360
<v Speaker 1>And they've been around quite a long time. My assumption

1:05:34.480 --> 1:05:38.400
<v Speaker 1>is institutions tend to be direct investments, not through a

1:05:38.640 --> 1:05:41.200
<v Speaker 1>fund vehicles that accurate. Yeah, Typically they want to be

1:05:41.280 --> 1:05:44.560
<v Speaker 1>registered locally, uh and and and they want to an

1:05:44.560 --> 1:05:47.760
<v Speaker 1>account that maybe sometimes has some customization that they may need.

1:05:47.880 --> 1:05:50.520
<v Speaker 1>We don't and won't accept a lot of customization. We

1:05:50.520 --> 1:05:52.360
<v Speaker 1>need to be able to do what we promised we

1:05:52.400 --> 1:05:55.240
<v Speaker 1>could deliver. You know, I think this business is about integrity.

1:05:55.280 --> 1:05:57.480
<v Speaker 1>It's saying saying what you're going to do and sticking

1:05:57.480 --> 1:06:00.160
<v Speaker 1>to it, you know, saying doing what you mean you

1:06:00.200 --> 1:06:02.280
<v Speaker 1>mean to set out upon. I think integrity is very

1:06:02.360 --> 1:06:04.160
<v Speaker 1>very important. So our clients, we need to make sure

1:06:04.240 --> 1:06:07.000
<v Speaker 1>we can deliver with integrity the philosophy process that they

1:06:07.000 --> 1:06:09.560
<v Speaker 1>bought into, they saw the results for. But sometimes at

1:06:09.560 --> 1:06:12.000
<v Speaker 1>the institutional level, maybe there's a nuance where there's a

1:06:12.040 --> 1:06:14.920
<v Speaker 1>market they can't be in for an institutional reason, et cetera.

1:06:15.160 --> 1:06:18.560
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes we can we can allow that. Quite quite interesting.

1:06:18.640 --> 1:06:21.480
<v Speaker 1>I want to get to my favorite questions, sort of

1:06:21.480 --> 1:06:24.800
<v Speaker 1>our speed round that we ask all of our guests.

1:06:24.840 --> 1:06:28.240
<v Speaker 1>Feel free to uh answer these as as long or

1:06:28.280 --> 1:06:31.280
<v Speaker 1>as short as you like. Tell us the first car

1:06:31.320 --> 1:06:34.240
<v Speaker 1>you ever owned, year, make and model. Yeah. As I said,

1:06:34.280 --> 1:06:37.480
<v Speaker 1>I grew up from a farming family and a landscaping business.

1:06:37.520 --> 1:06:40.440
<v Speaker 1>So my first car, not surprisingly, was a Chevy pickup truck.

1:06:41.240 --> 1:06:43.640
<v Speaker 1>I got my license in New Jersey at fifteen because

1:06:43.640 --> 1:06:45.640
<v Speaker 1>I got a farmer's license because you know, we had

1:06:45.680 --> 1:06:48.680
<v Speaker 1>a farm, so to speak. And I drove around town

1:06:48.720 --> 1:06:51.120
<v Speaker 1>with the name of our business and phone number plastered

1:06:51.120 --> 1:06:52.919
<v Speaker 1>on the side, which could be a good or bad

1:06:52.920 --> 1:06:56.320
<v Speaker 1>thing depending on how you're driving or where you're driving. What.

1:06:56.320 --> 1:07:04.760
<v Speaker 1>What's the most important thing that people don't know about you? Uh? Boy? Uh? Look, Uh,

1:07:05.280 --> 1:07:08.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm a person who cares a lot about other people.

1:07:08.800 --> 1:07:10.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think the other the other half of

1:07:10.280 --> 1:07:12.280
<v Speaker 1>my job has been managing money, and half of my

1:07:12.480 --> 1:07:16.480
<v Speaker 1>job has been managing people. And I really do care

1:07:16.520 --> 1:07:19.600
<v Speaker 1>about the success of my people. Uh it would, And

1:07:19.920 --> 1:07:23.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying that sort of a way to promote myself.

1:07:23.360 --> 1:07:25.919
<v Speaker 1>It's admittedly what makes me feel good. You know, people

1:07:25.960 --> 1:07:28.880
<v Speaker 1>do things for self motivation, and I really do take

1:07:28.920 --> 1:07:33.040
<v Speaker 1>a tremendous amount of personal satisfaction in the success and others.

1:07:33.080 --> 1:07:35.600
<v Speaker 1>I've taken great lengths over the last three to four

1:07:35.680 --> 1:07:38.680
<v Speaker 1>years to build a deeper broader team to build real

1:07:38.840 --> 1:07:41.360
<v Speaker 1>lead capable portfolio managers. I think we should have a

1:07:41.400 --> 1:07:44.439
<v Speaker 1>team for our investors where we're all redundant. I think

1:07:44.440 --> 1:07:47.760
<v Speaker 1>that's a better situation for our investors. So I think

1:07:47.760 --> 1:07:51.120
<v Speaker 1>maybe not a star system that is one person in

1:07:51.160 --> 1:07:54.480
<v Speaker 1>the headlines, everybody else is, uh working behind the scene.

1:07:54.480 --> 1:07:56.600
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's suboptimal for your clients, you know,

1:07:56.640 --> 1:07:59.360
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's suboptimal for retaining great people longer term,

1:07:59.400 --> 1:08:01.480
<v Speaker 1>because why do most of us change jobs is because

1:08:01.520 --> 1:08:04.360
<v Speaker 1>we need opportunity, you know it. Financial is important, right,

1:08:04.400 --> 1:08:07.440
<v Speaker 1>but people are people and they want self you know, achievement.

1:08:07.800 --> 1:08:10.320
<v Speaker 1>And I take a lot of satisfaction and that half

1:08:10.320 --> 1:08:12.960
<v Speaker 1>of my job of really I really smile and I

1:08:13.000 --> 1:08:15.440
<v Speaker 1>really feel good when I see the accomplishment and achievement

1:08:15.440 --> 1:08:16.800
<v Speaker 1>of others. And I'm saying that, like I said, not

1:08:16.840 --> 1:08:19.160
<v Speaker 1>in a self promotional way, in a selfish way. It's

1:08:19.200 --> 1:08:22.440
<v Speaker 1>what makes me feel good. Uh, let's talk about mentors.

1:08:22.479 --> 1:08:27.720
<v Speaker 1>Who were your mentors who helped guide your career in law? Yeah, look,

1:08:27.720 --> 1:08:29.960
<v Speaker 1>there's been several. I think, Uh, you know, you have

1:08:30.000 --> 1:08:32.080
<v Speaker 1>to go back to your childhood clearly, you know, as

1:08:32.080 --> 1:08:34.000
<v Speaker 1>most people do their parents. You know, I grew up

1:08:34.479 --> 1:08:36.120
<v Speaker 1>in one of the traits I try to push once

1:08:36.160 --> 1:08:38.599
<v Speaker 1>again today is just the the idea of hard work.

1:08:38.680 --> 1:08:40.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, As I said, we had a small business.

1:08:40.280 --> 1:08:41.760
<v Speaker 1>We had a business where we dug our hands in

1:08:41.760 --> 1:08:45.120
<v Speaker 1>the dirt. We worked seven days a week. Uh, work

1:08:45.160 --> 1:08:47.880
<v Speaker 1>ethic is extremely important to me. And my father in

1:08:47.920 --> 1:08:50.040
<v Speaker 1>that way and my mother were very important, you know,

1:08:50.040 --> 1:08:51.600
<v Speaker 1>And we worked when we were out of school. I

1:08:51.640 --> 1:08:54.240
<v Speaker 1>was at work after school, and we're at work on

1:08:54.280 --> 1:08:57.160
<v Speaker 1>the weekend, Saturday and Sunday. And I think hard work,

1:08:57.240 --> 1:09:00.439
<v Speaker 1>that old puritanical work ethic, you know, is very important

1:09:00.640 --> 1:09:03.040
<v Speaker 1>to me. So from a mentorship, definitely my father instilling

1:09:03.040 --> 1:09:05.280
<v Speaker 1>that in me, and then from the investment side, which

1:09:05.320 --> 1:09:07.479
<v Speaker 1>is key you know, to where I am today after

1:09:07.560 --> 1:09:10.080
<v Speaker 1>that or subsequent to that. You know, there's been a

1:09:10.120 --> 1:09:12.360
<v Speaker 1>litany of people. I think a lot of it has

1:09:12.400 --> 1:09:14.240
<v Speaker 1>been read. To start with two. You know. One of

1:09:14.280 --> 1:09:16.640
<v Speaker 1>the great piece of advice my co manager on our

1:09:16.720 --> 1:09:18.600
<v Speaker 1>US equity product, did Walls, that gave me earlier in

1:09:18.640 --> 1:09:19.960
<v Speaker 1>my career, was to read a lot of these money

1:09:19.960 --> 1:09:22.519
<v Speaker 1>master's books, right, even if it wasn't just equities, Read

1:09:22.560 --> 1:09:24.840
<v Speaker 1>how other people invest, how they make money. You know

1:09:24.840 --> 1:09:28.080
<v Speaker 1>whether and fixed income, whether commodities, whether equities, because also

1:09:28.120 --> 1:09:30.639
<v Speaker 1>the key to long term successful investing is finding something

1:09:30.640 --> 1:09:32.960
<v Speaker 1>that fits for you. And maybe maybe then equities, maybe

1:09:32.960 --> 1:09:35.639
<v Speaker 1>it's ficting Tom. Maybe in equities it's value, it's not growth.

1:09:35.960 --> 1:09:38.719
<v Speaker 1>But a key to success is finding what fits for you.

1:09:39.120 --> 1:09:42.960
<v Speaker 1>So reading a lot about how other people invest, how

1:09:43.000 --> 1:09:45.320
<v Speaker 1>they think. Probably you know the nature of what your

1:09:45.360 --> 1:09:48.759
<v Speaker 1>podcast audience is. I think that's all that's very important

1:09:48.960 --> 1:09:51.519
<v Speaker 1>that where you can drive mentorship from in a lot

1:09:51.520 --> 1:09:54.080
<v Speaker 1>of ways, you know how reading and learning from how

1:09:54.120 --> 1:09:56.840
<v Speaker 1>they think. But then you know, the obvious key instruments

1:09:56.840 --> 1:09:58.679
<v Speaker 1>in my life have been a lot of the investment

1:09:58.720 --> 1:10:00.720
<v Speaker 1>professionals around me at the um. You know, it's my

1:10:00.760 --> 1:10:03.479
<v Speaker 1>team and colleagues today, it's the d Walls as you know,

1:10:03.680 --> 1:10:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the Henry Schlegel's who's a founding, you know, father of

1:10:06.200 --> 1:10:08.360
<v Speaker 1>our firm. It's our former colleague, Regieve Jane. It's a

1:10:08.439 --> 1:10:10.679
<v Speaker 1>number of people at our firm that have helped build

1:10:10.720 --> 1:10:12.600
<v Speaker 1>me from this kid who came out of you know,

1:10:12.720 --> 1:10:16.000
<v Speaker 1>university in and has has built his way, you know,

1:10:16.080 --> 1:10:18.799
<v Speaker 1>like Michael J. Fox did in Secret to my success

1:10:18.840 --> 1:10:20.519
<v Speaker 1>from the mail room to the top you know, I

1:10:20.560 --> 1:10:23.960
<v Speaker 1>literally started at the bottom. I started trade processing and settlement,

1:10:24.280 --> 1:10:26.439
<v Speaker 1>and I worked my way through the organization and along

1:10:26.439 --> 1:10:28.920
<v Speaker 1>that journey. To your question, there's been people at every

1:10:29.000 --> 1:10:31.760
<v Speaker 1>stage that have helped me, you know, that have really

1:10:31.760 --> 1:10:33.639
<v Speaker 1>helped me in certain aspects that i've you know, now

1:10:33.760 --> 1:10:36.760
<v Speaker 1>put together. You mentioned reading. Tell us some of your

1:10:36.800 --> 1:10:41.040
<v Speaker 1>favorite books, be they investing related, nonfiction fiction. What do

1:10:41.080 --> 1:10:44.519
<v Speaker 1>you like to read? You know, I'm boring in a

1:10:44.560 --> 1:10:47.280
<v Speaker 1>way and that I like to read nonfiction. I like

1:10:47.439 --> 1:10:51.200
<v Speaker 1>history a lot, you know, some sci fi like I liked.

1:10:51.280 --> 1:10:52.920
<v Speaker 1>And it's funny the books you end up with, you know,

1:10:53.000 --> 1:10:55.479
<v Speaker 1>sometimes you wonder how you ended up there. But the

1:10:55.520 --> 1:10:57.799
<v Speaker 1>current book I'm reading is a biography of f DR

1:10:58.479 --> 1:11:01.519
<v Speaker 1>from Gene Smith, and it's a really good piece of

1:11:01.520 --> 1:11:04.839
<v Speaker 1>perspective as you read about that time period and related

1:11:04.880 --> 1:11:06.760
<v Speaker 1>to the time period today, because I think a lot

1:11:06.760 --> 1:11:09.920
<v Speaker 1>of investment success also, and why I read history is

1:11:09.960 --> 1:11:12.479
<v Speaker 1>this element of perspective, getting out of the frenzy and

1:11:12.520 --> 1:11:16.240
<v Speaker 1>flurry and and and feeling of this is also different

1:11:16.280 --> 1:11:19.120
<v Speaker 1>and also wild of today to looking back at the

1:11:19.120 --> 1:11:22.120
<v Speaker 1>way things have been and were, And I think FDRs

1:11:22.160 --> 1:11:24.519
<v Speaker 1>period is actually quite interesting, right, I mean, you look

1:11:24.520 --> 1:11:26.559
<v Speaker 1>at what was going on at geopolitical stage, you look

1:11:26.600 --> 1:11:29.639
<v Speaker 1>at geopolitical missteps. You mentioned it earlier in terms of Powell,

1:11:29.720 --> 1:11:33.000
<v Speaker 1>in terms of a cabinet committee nomination by Trump, but

1:11:33.160 --> 1:11:35.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, look what past cabinets were filled with, right,

1:11:35.320 --> 1:11:37.920
<v Speaker 1>the chrony ism and the lack of experience and capability

1:11:38.000 --> 1:11:42.000
<v Speaker 1>or poor capability. Have some perspective that over time. You know,

1:11:42.160 --> 1:11:44.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm not making indictment on a on a political you know,

1:11:45.080 --> 1:11:48.200
<v Speaker 1>a party or group, but it's pervasive everywhere. Right, So

1:11:48.320 --> 1:11:51.559
<v Speaker 1>just have that perspective of how decisions in history have

1:11:51.720 --> 1:11:54.680
<v Speaker 1>played out. Maybe in the short term seemingly difficult or

1:11:54.760 --> 1:11:57.880
<v Speaker 1>scary or risky. But as Buffett also pointed out to

1:11:58.040 --> 1:12:01.120
<v Speaker 1>from that period, you know, as he's first investing in

1:12:01.160 --> 1:12:03.479
<v Speaker 1>the forties, right, who would have ever invested in the

1:12:03.520 --> 1:12:05.400
<v Speaker 1>environment in the face of you know, carnage in the

1:12:05.400 --> 1:12:08.640
<v Speaker 1>South Pacific with World War Two? Right, But it was

1:12:08.680 --> 1:12:12.080
<v Speaker 1>the time to invest. It's for the Yeah, for the

1:12:12.120 --> 1:12:14.640
<v Speaker 1>long term, it's always a good time to invest. But

1:12:14.720 --> 1:12:17.360
<v Speaker 1>you've got to have perspective then and sent and and

1:12:17.360 --> 1:12:20.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of dampen your sensitivity through experience that this stuff

1:12:21.000 --> 1:12:23.479
<v Speaker 1>we all see and read and hear about today. It

1:12:23.520 --> 1:12:26.519
<v Speaker 1>has a lot of rhythm to what happened even you know,

1:12:26.560 --> 1:12:28.640
<v Speaker 1>in the thirties and forties, for one example. So I

1:12:28.640 --> 1:12:30.760
<v Speaker 1>read a lot of biographies like the FDR is one,

1:12:30.800 --> 1:12:33.360
<v Speaker 1>give us another book or biography? Look the other one

1:12:33.439 --> 1:12:35.880
<v Speaker 1>you know that I liked. Unfortunately. You know, this is

1:12:35.920 --> 1:12:37.760
<v Speaker 1>like you know when you like sports teams and they

1:12:37.760 --> 1:12:40.160
<v Speaker 1>were unpopular then become popular, right, you know, the the

1:12:40.240 --> 1:12:43.680
<v Speaker 1>turn off. Hamilton's biography was awesome, Right, But Hamilton's now

1:12:43.720 --> 1:12:47.120
<v Speaker 1>this global sensation because of the deserved success, right of

1:12:47.120 --> 1:12:49.680
<v Speaker 1>the play. But Hamilton's, you know, was a character that I,

1:12:49.840 --> 1:12:51.560
<v Speaker 1>long before all this recent success, had a lot of

1:12:51.600 --> 1:12:54.599
<v Speaker 1>admiration for in his contribution to our country, which people

1:12:54.600 --> 1:12:57.120
<v Speaker 1>now I'm proud and I'm glad they broadly learned more about.

1:12:57.120 --> 1:12:58.960
<v Speaker 1>But that's obviously a great biography. I try to lead

1:12:59.280 --> 1:13:01.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of president, you know, sort of presidence. I

1:13:01.120 --> 1:13:03.200
<v Speaker 1>think you learn a lot about it before you move

1:13:03.240 --> 1:13:05.200
<v Speaker 1>off of Hamilton's. I have to say, there aren't a

1:13:05.240 --> 1:13:08.400
<v Speaker 1>lot of authors that you could say, yeah, just grib

1:13:08.520 --> 1:13:11.400
<v Speaker 1>Any chron out book, it'll be great. He's one of

1:13:11.439 --> 1:13:16.120
<v Speaker 1>those authors that anything he's written is just spectacular. Fantastic too, right.

1:13:16.200 --> 1:13:18.479
<v Speaker 1>You know the Jobs book was great, right, Isaacson too.

1:13:18.479 --> 1:13:20.679
<v Speaker 1>So you get there's certain authors, right what they they

1:13:21.080 --> 1:13:23.000
<v Speaker 1>what they write is just always great. But I tend

1:13:23.080 --> 1:13:26.320
<v Speaker 1>to read about people in history and in periods too,

1:13:26.320 --> 1:13:28.360
<v Speaker 1>so it's not just always people. You know, I've finished

1:13:28.400 --> 1:13:30.439
<v Speaker 1>a book on the Crusades, you know, certain periods of history.

1:13:30.479 --> 1:13:33.439
<v Speaker 1>What's the name of the book? Uh? That ish gosh,

1:13:33.479 --> 1:13:35.240
<v Speaker 1>Now I can't remember the name of that one. Now,

1:13:35.280 --> 1:13:38.200
<v Speaker 1>you got me? Because so I read a book email

1:13:38.240 --> 1:13:43.280
<v Speaker 1>to me. I'll make the book I had um Jim

1:13:43.320 --> 1:13:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Chanos recommended was a World Lit Only by Fire, which

1:13:47.479 --> 1:13:51.479
<v Speaker 1>covers that sort of Crusades Enlightenment era. And it's just

1:13:51.880 --> 1:13:54.200
<v Speaker 1>mind and I think visually, and I can picture the

1:13:54.200 --> 1:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>book now on my table and sitting there after I

1:13:56.840 --> 1:13:58.280
<v Speaker 1>finished it. I'll have to come back to you with

1:13:58.320 --> 1:14:00.200
<v Speaker 1>the name of it. But it wasn't that specific one.

1:14:00.240 --> 1:14:03.120
<v Speaker 1>But also, you know, I'm not looking for carnage when

1:14:03.160 --> 1:14:05.120
<v Speaker 1>I read about it the thirties and forties and in

1:14:05.200 --> 1:14:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the Crusades. But there are lessons to be tremendous lessons

1:14:08.360 --> 1:14:10.240
<v Speaker 1>to be learned longer term, and that's why I think

1:14:10.280 --> 1:14:12.680
<v Speaker 1>reading is important. You know unfortunately. I think you know,

1:14:12.720 --> 1:14:14.760
<v Speaker 1>first of all, radio versus TV isn't important as a

1:14:14.800 --> 1:14:17.360
<v Speaker 1>medium because you have more time to be thoughtful and

1:14:17.439 --> 1:14:19.800
<v Speaker 1>reading is time to be thoughtful, and we all need

1:14:19.800 --> 1:14:21.120
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more of that than a hundred and

1:14:21.160 --> 1:14:26.280
<v Speaker 1>thirty characters or whatever. We're um. If you ever get

1:14:26.320 --> 1:14:30.640
<v Speaker 1>a chance to see Walter Isaacson speak in public, I

1:14:30.680 --> 1:14:33.719
<v Speaker 1>believe it was the t D event their annual conference

1:14:33.720 --> 1:14:38.160
<v Speaker 1>in June. They had Isaacson speak and I read the

1:14:38.240 --> 1:14:42.080
<v Speaker 1>Jobs Book and I have UM I forgot what his

1:14:42.120 --> 1:14:46.560
<v Speaker 1>most recent book was on UM innovators or inventors or

1:14:46.560 --> 1:14:49.000
<v Speaker 1>whatever it was. I haven't gotten to it yet, but

1:14:49.800 --> 1:14:54.640
<v Speaker 1>he is a fascinating person doing exactly what you're describing,

1:14:55.320 --> 1:14:59.559
<v Speaker 1>taking the biography of people from today and using history

1:14:59.600 --> 1:15:03.559
<v Speaker 1>as a context to show. I think you said this early.

1:15:03.640 --> 1:15:05.800
<v Speaker 1>The more things change, the more it remains the same.

1:15:06.439 --> 1:15:08.800
<v Speaker 1>That's the crucial lesson we all need to hold on to,

1:15:09.040 --> 1:15:11.559
<v Speaker 1>you know, through all the turmoil we see every day

1:15:11.560 --> 1:15:14.320
<v Speaker 1>on the news, right, that's why? And why is that

1:15:14.439 --> 1:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>because we're people right Where people we talked about certain

1:15:17.200 --> 1:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>elements where people were animals. We have animalists animalistic nature

1:15:19.960 --> 1:15:22.320
<v Speaker 1>in certain ways to we really like the negative and

1:15:22.320 --> 1:15:24.720
<v Speaker 1>and and we just need to step back and appreciate that.

1:15:24.800 --> 1:15:26.080
<v Speaker 1>I think at the end of the day, and then

1:15:26.160 --> 1:15:27.800
<v Speaker 1>I like to read also, as you can pick up

1:15:27.800 --> 1:15:30.680
<v Speaker 1>in my books, leadership right, which is also something we

1:15:30.720 --> 1:15:33.640
<v Speaker 1>wonder about the world today. Right, we need collective leadership

1:15:33.840 --> 1:15:36.120
<v Speaker 1>rightly where maybe in a vacuum here where we're looking

1:15:36.160 --> 1:15:39.920
<v Speaker 1>for real clear leadership, because historically there are times where

1:15:40.160 --> 1:15:42.639
<v Speaker 1>leadership mattered a lot, you know, so I think reading

1:15:42.680 --> 1:15:45.200
<v Speaker 1>about that's interesting. Tell us about a time you failed

1:15:45.240 --> 1:15:49.360
<v Speaker 1>and what you learn from the experience. Yeah, you know, uh,

1:15:49.439 --> 1:15:51.880
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to failure, I I have obviously all

1:15:51.880 --> 1:15:54.719
<v Speaker 1>the classic pitfalls and investing. You know, we we all

1:15:54.720 --> 1:15:57.040
<v Speaker 1>sell too early, even great businesses. We do it because

1:15:57.040 --> 1:15:59.800
<v Speaker 1>we have some valuation sensitivity on top of that, you know,

1:15:59.800 --> 1:16:01.760
<v Speaker 1>on the other side of the coin, you often hold

1:16:01.800 --> 1:16:03.400
<v Speaker 1>on too long. But you know, I think my greater

1:16:03.439 --> 1:16:06.559
<v Speaker 1>failures I hone in on our more personal failures, you know,

1:16:06.720 --> 1:16:10.080
<v Speaker 1>not you know, not in interpersonal relationship speaking up or

1:16:10.560 --> 1:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>or stepping up you know, both in family or friends

1:16:13.200 --> 1:16:15.400
<v Speaker 1>or things like that. You know, not to get too specific,

1:16:15.439 --> 1:16:17.760
<v Speaker 1>but those are the failures that I think you hold

1:16:17.800 --> 1:16:20.320
<v Speaker 1>a little bit closer. Uh, And those are ones that

1:16:20.360 --> 1:16:22.479
<v Speaker 1>are more important to learn from, because I think the

1:16:22.520 --> 1:16:24.639
<v Speaker 1>investment ones, they are critical and you do learn from

1:16:24.720 --> 1:16:27.040
<v Speaker 1>what they are. The obvious ones. I think the real

1:16:27.040 --> 1:16:28.840
<v Speaker 1>failures we all need to focus on, and I do

1:16:28.880 --> 1:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>are are ones where you've fallen short personally and we

1:16:32.040 --> 1:16:34.800
<v Speaker 1>all we all need to do a better job. What

1:16:34.840 --> 1:16:36.160
<v Speaker 1>do you do for fun? What do you do when

1:16:36.200 --> 1:16:40.520
<v Speaker 1>you're not reading biographies or are in the office. Yeah,

1:16:40.560 --> 1:16:43.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, I um a University of Denver alumni, So

1:16:43.320 --> 1:16:45.680
<v Speaker 1>I ski. You know. I like to ski, certainly. I

1:16:45.680 --> 1:16:47.439
<v Speaker 1>love the mountains. I'm a mountain person, even though I

1:16:47.439 --> 1:16:50.160
<v Speaker 1>live in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, which is a little bit funny.

1:16:50.160 --> 1:16:51.600
<v Speaker 1>But I got a little best best of both the

1:16:51.600 --> 1:16:53.240
<v Speaker 1>worlds are in that way, I can live in in

1:16:53.280 --> 1:16:56.439
<v Speaker 1>the worm and go skiing, and I can wander skiing.

1:16:56.479 --> 1:16:57.720
<v Speaker 1>I guess that's one way to get it out of

1:16:57.720 --> 1:17:01.000
<v Speaker 1>my system. The hills are a little lower there. Uh,

1:17:01.040 --> 1:17:02.720
<v Speaker 1>So I do like to ski. Look, I'm a I'm

1:17:02.760 --> 1:17:05.280
<v Speaker 1>a family person, you know, so I have two young kids.

1:17:05.840 --> 1:17:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Quality of life is important for me too. We work hard,

1:17:08.080 --> 1:17:09.680
<v Speaker 1>we work seven days a week. But I think you

1:17:09.680 --> 1:17:11.880
<v Speaker 1>need to balance at and keep you know, faith and

1:17:11.960 --> 1:17:15.240
<v Speaker 1>family and all those elements very very close to your life.

1:17:15.240 --> 1:17:19.080
<v Speaker 1>They're important, is important. So let's talk about the industry.

1:17:19.080 --> 1:17:21.599
<v Speaker 1>What are you most optimistic about? What are you most

1:17:21.600 --> 1:17:25.439
<v Speaker 1>pessimistic about? In the investing industry, I think you've got

1:17:25.439 --> 1:17:28.639
<v Speaker 1>to be optimistic that, you know, despite all the noise

1:17:28.680 --> 1:17:31.160
<v Speaker 1>and change, you know, success and investing still comes back

1:17:31.200 --> 1:17:32.960
<v Speaker 1>to the same playbook, you know, and if you can

1:17:33.000 --> 1:17:35.360
<v Speaker 1>be disciplined around it. So that excites me, right, where

1:17:35.560 --> 1:17:38.880
<v Speaker 1>other industries have gotten hollowed out, and they are fundamentally different. Right,

1:17:38.920 --> 1:17:41.000
<v Speaker 1>if you're a taxi driver and your compete against Uber,

1:17:41.040 --> 1:17:44.040
<v Speaker 1>your business is different. Right. If you're a restaurant and

1:17:44.080 --> 1:17:46.599
<v Speaker 1>delivery has come in and delivery apps, your business is different.

1:17:46.920 --> 1:17:49.599
<v Speaker 1>Our business has had a lot of technological change and influence,

1:17:49.600 --> 1:17:51.320
<v Speaker 1>and people talk about AI and the snap. But I'm

1:17:51.320 --> 1:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>actually quite excited in that we have a we have

1:17:53.920 --> 1:17:57.559
<v Speaker 1>an employable skill still here. That's kind of nice, right,

1:17:57.600 --> 1:17:59.720
<v Speaker 1>We still have some value added to bring even as

1:17:59.760 --> 1:18:02.400
<v Speaker 1>much as things have changed. So I'm really quite excited

1:18:02.439 --> 1:18:05.120
<v Speaker 1>about that, you know, I'm I'm sort of you know,

1:18:05.160 --> 1:18:07.640
<v Speaker 1>if I get in negative at all and downtrodden it

1:18:07.760 --> 1:18:10.520
<v Speaker 1>is sort of around these sort of you know, fissures

1:18:10.560 --> 1:18:13.280
<v Speaker 1>you know where and as I mentioned very briefly there,

1:18:13.320 --> 1:18:15.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, community is important to me. We were supposedly

1:18:15.880 --> 1:18:19.200
<v Speaker 1>living in an age where technology was enhancing community and

1:18:19.439 --> 1:18:21.760
<v Speaker 1>creating a greater community. But in fact, I think what

1:18:21.800 --> 1:18:24.519
<v Speaker 1>people are hopefully and seeing and recognizing as we're actually

1:18:24.520 --> 1:18:27.519
<v Speaker 1>seeing a fracturing of community, you know, because of maybe

1:18:27.520 --> 1:18:31.360
<v Speaker 1>technology perversely social media and all that. So that scares me, right,

1:18:31.400 --> 1:18:34.840
<v Speaker 1>because you know, politics are politics, economics are economics, but

1:18:35.000 --> 1:18:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, strong community is very important and locally and

1:18:38.200 --> 1:18:41.439
<v Speaker 1>on a political stage as well. So I'm a bit

1:18:41.479 --> 1:18:44.080
<v Speaker 1>negative on that, you know. I know though over the

1:18:44.080 --> 1:18:46.120
<v Speaker 1>long term, as we said, it's never you know, paid

1:18:46.160 --> 1:18:48.840
<v Speaker 1>to be a pessimist, as as Buffett also said, I believe,

1:18:48.840 --> 1:18:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, investing is an optimist game and you have

1:18:51.120 --> 1:18:52.960
<v Speaker 1>to be that and it's been the right way to be.

1:18:53.040 --> 1:18:55.120
<v Speaker 1>So you don't want to be too near term pessimistic.

1:18:55.520 --> 1:18:56.640
<v Speaker 1>But you know, a near term me, you get a

1:18:56.680 --> 1:18:58.800
<v Speaker 1>little bit down. And as you see this, you know,

1:18:58.920 --> 1:19:02.320
<v Speaker 1>this key element of life fracturing a bit interesting. So

1:19:02.360 --> 1:19:04.719
<v Speaker 1>a recent college graduate comes to you and is looking

1:19:04.720 --> 1:19:07.920
<v Speaker 1>for advice about a career in finance. What would you

1:19:07.960 --> 1:19:11.120
<v Speaker 1>tell them, Yeah, I'd say a lot of things we've

1:19:11.120 --> 1:19:12.759
<v Speaker 1>talked about. To say, I'll have to point them towards

1:19:12.760 --> 1:19:14.200
<v Speaker 1>the podcast. But you know, I think you need to

1:19:14.200 --> 1:19:17.000
<v Speaker 1>find the investment philosophy that works for you number one,

1:19:17.120 --> 1:19:19.559
<v Speaker 1>because there are a million roads to heaven. You gotta

1:19:19.560 --> 1:19:21.320
<v Speaker 1>pick the right one for you in the investing world,

1:19:21.720 --> 1:19:23.559
<v Speaker 1>you know, I I have a mouse trap that works

1:19:23.600 --> 1:19:26.040
<v Speaker 1>for me and my team and our firm and our

1:19:26.080 --> 1:19:29.400
<v Speaker 1>temperament and our skill set and our investors. Critically, so

1:19:29.439 --> 1:19:31.439
<v Speaker 1>you've got to find the right path for you. I

1:19:31.479 --> 1:19:34.879
<v Speaker 1>think reading and perspective is critical. Being a little less sensitive,

1:19:34.880 --> 1:19:36.960
<v Speaker 1>being a little bit patient. I think those are the

1:19:36.960 --> 1:19:38.680
<v Speaker 1>basic things you tell them to work on, you know,

1:19:38.760 --> 1:19:41.280
<v Speaker 1>be a voracious reader. Uh. And that you know, as

1:19:41.320 --> 1:19:42.920
<v Speaker 1>we've talked about, there is a good future. You still

1:19:42.920 --> 1:19:45.720
<v Speaker 1>have an employable skill set, you know. I think the

1:19:45.840 --> 1:19:48.479
<v Speaker 1>human element is going to continue to create opportunity, continue

1:19:48.520 --> 1:19:50.479
<v Speaker 1>to drive most people to make mistakes. That's just the

1:19:50.560 --> 1:19:52.800
<v Speaker 1>law of numbers. And you can stand there ready to

1:19:52.840 --> 1:19:55.879
<v Speaker 1>capitalize upon them and and and make money. But critically

1:19:56.360 --> 1:20:00.680
<v Speaker 1>preserve capital, you know, preserve one compound Number two and

1:20:00.760 --> 1:20:03.200
<v Speaker 1>our final question, what do you know about the world

1:20:03.200 --> 1:20:06.760
<v Speaker 1>of investing today that you wish you knew twenty years

1:20:06.760 --> 1:20:11.599
<v Speaker 1>ago or so when you were first starting out. Yeah,

1:20:11.600 --> 1:20:13.519
<v Speaker 1>that's a good one. What would I have wanted to

1:20:13.560 --> 1:20:17.400
<v Speaker 1>know twenty years ago today? Uh, you know, aside from

1:20:17.439 --> 1:20:20.439
<v Speaker 1>the generic things that would leave to two general investment success,

1:20:21.000 --> 1:20:26.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, you'd want to know how complicated the businesses

1:20:26.120 --> 1:20:28.800
<v Speaker 1>outside of just the you know, the investing aspect, in

1:20:28.840 --> 1:20:31.120
<v Speaker 1>the analytical aspect, right. I think it's why it's important

1:20:31.160 --> 1:20:33.320
<v Speaker 1>for people, and it was helpful in my own background,

1:20:33.800 --> 1:20:37.840
<v Speaker 1>as I mentioned my past, to know how the plumbing works, right,

1:20:37.960 --> 1:20:40.760
<v Speaker 1>the plumbing is becoming even more important. You know how

1:20:40.960 --> 1:20:44.040
<v Speaker 1>markets trade, how trades to element works, how that those

1:20:44.080 --> 1:20:47.960
<v Speaker 1>elements work. I think that's twenty years ago. That was

1:20:48.000 --> 1:20:49.800
<v Speaker 1>something that wasn't paris not taught in school. You know,

1:20:49.800 --> 1:20:51.280
<v Speaker 1>you don't learn about the plumbing. You try to get

1:20:51.320 --> 1:20:52.760
<v Speaker 1>a job, go to graduate school and come out and

1:20:52.800 --> 1:20:54.559
<v Speaker 1>be an analyst or be a successful investor. You sort

1:20:54.560 --> 1:20:56.680
<v Speaker 1>of skip ahead, you know. So I think that's an

1:20:56.720 --> 1:20:59.559
<v Speaker 1>important aspect. Do you want to really know with investing

1:20:59.640 --> 1:21:03.280
<v Speaker 1>or any thing, have that foundation of how things work first?

1:21:03.680 --> 1:21:05.920
<v Speaker 1>Where generally people have a tendency to want to jump

1:21:05.920 --> 1:21:08.160
<v Speaker 1>ahead and solve the problems, you know, or so go

1:21:08.240 --> 1:21:11.120
<v Speaker 1>to the headline of the issue without backing down and

1:21:11.240 --> 1:21:13.200
<v Speaker 1>understanding the plumbing. So I think that's the that's the

1:21:13.200 --> 1:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>advice I would have known. I want to know more

1:21:15.160 --> 1:21:17.240
<v Speaker 1>of the plumbing, and I think I think we've done

1:21:17.240 --> 1:21:19.160
<v Speaker 1>a decent job preparing for that, and I think we're

1:21:19.240 --> 1:21:21.800
<v Speaker 1>ahead of that certainly where we are today, because that's

1:21:21.840 --> 1:21:23.920
<v Speaker 1>another key element we didn't even get into today, you know,

1:21:23.960 --> 1:21:25.840
<v Speaker 1>the mechanics and plumbing of the markets, and where we

1:21:25.880 --> 1:21:27.519
<v Speaker 1>are now versus where we used to be in that

1:21:27.640 --> 1:21:31.479
<v Speaker 1>interaction with investing is going to be more important, quite

1:21:31.600 --> 1:21:34.360
<v Speaker 1>quite interesting. Matt, thank you for being so generous with

1:21:34.479 --> 1:21:37.880
<v Speaker 1>your time. We have been speaking with Matt Benkendorff, ce

1:21:38.000 --> 1:21:41.880
<v Speaker 1>IO of on Tobol Quality Growth. UH. If you enjoy

1:21:41.960 --> 1:21:44.160
<v Speaker 1>this conversation, well be sure and look up an Inch

1:21:44.240 --> 1:21:46.800
<v Speaker 1>or down an Inch on Apple iTunes and you could

1:21:46.800 --> 1:21:49.960
<v Speaker 1>see any of the previous two hundred and sixty or

1:21:50.000 --> 1:21:53.880
<v Speaker 1>so of these we've had over the past five plus years. UH.

1:21:53.920 --> 1:21:58.280
<v Speaker 1>We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us

1:21:58.439 --> 1:22:01.960
<v Speaker 1>at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. Be sure

1:22:01.960 --> 1:22:05.360
<v Speaker 1>and give us a review on Apple iTunes. I would

1:22:05.360 --> 1:22:07.679
<v Speaker 1>be remiss if I did not thank the Crack staff

1:22:07.720 --> 1:22:11.880
<v Speaker 1>that helps put these conversations together each week. Karen O'Brien

1:22:12.080 --> 1:22:15.720
<v Speaker 1>is my audio engineer. Michael Batnick is my head of research.

1:22:16.439 --> 1:22:20.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm Barry Hults. You've been listening to Masters in Business

1:22:20.160 --> 1:22:21.280
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio