WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Julia Coronado & Michael Purves

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, the best way to get us out

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<v Speaker 2>on Apple podcasts, whole bunch of other ways as well.

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<v Speaker 2>But I just everything's said and done. Thank you to

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<v Speaker 2>Apple for just how they've invented this. I go back

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<v Speaker 2>a zillion years ago with Bloomberg on the economy in

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Surveillance and was humbled to visit Cooper Tino with

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<v Speaker 2>Emily ages Ago and to see what Apple wrought in

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<v Speaker 2>the podcast business. It's a whole different world now. We've

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<v Speaker 2>got lots of exciting plans here at Bloomberg Podcasts that

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<v Speaker 2>you're going to hear about in the coming weeks. And

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<v Speaker 2>it's good to do a six to seven minute little

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<v Speaker 2>vignette of what two smart people say every day. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Surveillance. Michael Purvis is smart. We'll get to that

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<v Speaker 2>in a moment. But first, Julia Cordinado at BMP Perry,

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<v Speaker 2>but she really held down the court in a great

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<v Speaker 2>financial crisis. She was way ahead on the idea that

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<v Speaker 2>GDP would not be sprightly. That was a heck of

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<v Speaker 2>a call. Over thirty six months now with macro policy perspectives,

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<v Speaker 2>with Constance Hunter and Julia Cornado, and I think the

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<v Speaker 2>heart of the matter is how do you measure inflation.

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<v Speaker 2>Jason Furman up at Harvard has really led the way

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<v Speaker 2>on this and taking a sum of three monthly annualized,

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<v Speaker 2>six monthly annualized, twelve monthly annualized, you know, a set

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<v Speaker 2>of inflation statistics to come to some smooth average disinflation.

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<v Speaker 2>Here is Julia Cornado on your annualized inflation.

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<v Speaker 3>We're looking for a point three on core. That would

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<v Speaker 3>still bring the annual rate down a couple tips, but

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<v Speaker 3>it would lead the three month annualized rate up, so

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<v Speaker 3>it would be kind of neither here nor there. I

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<v Speaker 3>think in terms of the FED, it would not be

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<v Speaker 3>particularly worrisome because you know, year on year we're still

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<v Speaker 3>making progress, but it would also say there's no rush.

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<v Speaker 3>And then you take that with the Friday employment report,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, I think that's going to matter more Tom

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<v Speaker 3>the jobs data. If that shows signs of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the perfect goldilocks labor conditions are starting to cool off

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit, that might give the FED more urgency

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<v Speaker 3>versus if that continues.

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<v Speaker 2>Julian corn out of there on trend and what's important

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<v Speaker 2>here and this goes to a lot of technical analysis,

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<v Speaker 2>including the equity market of the tenure yield is generally

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<v Speaker 2>academics and market pros like to find trend and not

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<v Speaker 2>the turn. Finding the turn is much much harder. The

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<v Speaker 2>phrase here, and there's a fancy word stochastics people use,

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<v Speaker 2>but the phrase here is to catch a falling knife.

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<v Speaker 2>Jerme Powell and Julia Cornado are not trying to catch

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<v Speaker 2>a falling knife. They need to see a trend in data,

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<v Speaker 2>and that is codified by the annual To take three

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<v Speaker 2>month data and then pretend it's a twelve month statistic

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<v Speaker 2>and that's a three month annualized I guess, I guess

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<v Speaker 2>looked at Jason Furman out on Twitter for some real

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<v Speaker 2>good guidance on that, as he holds the court at

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<v Speaker 2>Harvard in X ten, holding the court for years. In

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<v Speaker 2>a synthesis of what we're doing is Michael Purvis. He's

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<v Speaker 2>at tallback and with all sorts of credit heritage on

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<v Speaker 2>Wall Street, and he and I and Damian Sassar are

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<v Speaker 2>sitting in today for Paul Sweeney. I mean, the fact

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<v Speaker 2>is there was bitcoin three weeks ago, there was bitcoin

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<v Speaker 2>three days ago, there was bitcoin three minutes ago, Michael

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<v Speaker 2>Purvis on the spike in bitcoin, What is the market

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<v Speaker 2>structure of bitcoin?

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<v Speaker 4>Oh? The uh, well, I think you just gave. I

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<v Speaker 4>was going to make a quip that, you know, bit

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<v Speaker 4>coin going rallies to fresh time highs as it just

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<v Speaker 4>does it make a sound you know today whereas you

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<v Speaker 4>know just a few years ago, you know what a

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<v Speaker 4>famously broke twenty thousand and every institutional investor had to

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<v Speaker 4>happen a view on it.

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<v Speaker 2>Is it a market structure or is it contrived?

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's contrived.

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Purvis not mincing words here, here's the background in this,

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<v Speaker 2>and I said, good morning and good afternoon worldwide to

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<v Speaker 2>all of you in support of bitcoin. I will observe

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<v Speaker 2>is a general statement. It's been hugely generational. The best

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<v Speaker 2>work on this and the work that I read in

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Purvis reads is the Bank of International Settlements in Geneva, Switzerland.

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<v Speaker 2>The stereotype is there's the central banker to the central banks.

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<v Speaker 2>What you need to know is it's a huge academic

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<v Speaker 2>combine and with the leadership of Raphael Hour, the Bank

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<v Speaker 2>of International Settlements has the smartest eight page ten page,

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<v Speaker 2>six page essays and the heart of the matter of

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<v Speaker 2>their research that they've really dived into is that this

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<v Speaker 2>is a retail speculative phenomenon, that most of the volume

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<v Speaker 2>in bitcoin is around people trading it for a higher

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<v Speaker 2>price or trading it for a lower price. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>really the summary from the best and brightest, and that

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<v Speaker 2>alludes to what you heard from Michael Purvis. What I

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<v Speaker 2>can tell you is each and every day bitcoin goes

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<v Speaker 2>up at Bloomberg looked at Crypto, it's a franchise, some

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<v Speaker 2>real smart conversations, including with bitcoin positives as well. We

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<v Speaker 2>have Katie Greifeld and others give us the reporting here

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<v Speaker 2>on this event of bitcoin. The last I looked in

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<v Speaker 2>the terminal, it's seventy one thousand. We thank you for

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<v Speaker 2>your attention to single best idea. Wonderful to have doctor

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<v Speaker 2>Coronado and mister Purvis with us today. Have no clue

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<v Speaker 2>who will have tomorrow. We'll make it up tomorrow on

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<v Speaker 2>Apple car plays, on YouTube, search Bloomberg Podcast, all of

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<v Speaker 2>that for Bloomberg surveyor listen