Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, the best way to get us out
Speaker 2: on Apple podcasts, whole bunch of other ways as well.
Speaker 2: But I just everything's said and done. Thank you to
Speaker 2: Apple for just how they've invented this. I go back
Speaker 2: a zillion years ago with Bloomberg on the economy in
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance and was humbled to visit Cooper Tino with
Speaker 2: Emily ages Ago and to see what Apple wrought in
Speaker 2: the podcast business. It's a whole different world now. We've
Speaker 2: got lots of exciting plans here at Bloomberg Podcasts that
Speaker 2: you're going to hear about in the coming weeks. And
Speaker 2: it's good to do a six to seven minute little
Speaker 2: vignette of what two smart people say every day. I'm
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance. Michael Purvis is smart. We'll get to that
Speaker 2: in a moment. But first, Julia Cordinado at BMP Perry,
Speaker 2: but she really held down the court in a great
Speaker 2: financial crisis. She was way ahead on the idea that
Speaker 2: GDP would not be sprightly. That was a heck of
Speaker 2: a call. Over thirty six months now with macro policy perspectives,
Speaker 2: with Constance Hunter and Julia Cornado, and I think the
Speaker 2: heart of the matter is how do you measure inflation.
Speaker 2: Jason Furman up at Harvard has really led the way
Speaker 2: on this and taking a sum of three monthly annualized,
Speaker 2: six monthly annualized, twelve monthly annualized, you know, a set
Speaker 2: of inflation statistics to come to some smooth average disinflation.
Speaker 2: Here is Julia Cornado on your annualized inflation.
Speaker 3: We're looking for a point three on core. That would
Speaker 3: still bring the annual rate down a couple tips, but
Speaker 3: it would lead the three month annualized rate up, so
Speaker 3: it would be kind of neither here nor there. I
Speaker 3: think in terms of the FED, it would not be
Speaker 3: particularly worrisome because you know, year on year we're still
Speaker 3: making progress, but it would also say there's no rush.
Speaker 3: And then you take that with the Friday employment report,
Speaker 3: you know, I think that's going to matter more Tom
Speaker 3: the jobs data. If that shows signs of you know,
Speaker 3: the perfect goldilocks labor conditions are starting to cool off
Speaker 3: a little bit, that might give the FED more urgency
Speaker 3: versus if that continues.
Speaker 2: Julian corn out of there on trend and what's important
Speaker 2: here and this goes to a lot of technical analysis,
Speaker 2: including the equity market of the tenure yield is generally
Speaker 2: academics and market pros like to find trend and not
Speaker 2: the turn. Finding the turn is much much harder. The
Speaker 2: phrase here, and there's a fancy word stochastics people use,
Speaker 2: but the phrase here is to catch a falling knife.
Speaker 2: Jerme Powell and Julia Cornado are not trying to catch
Speaker 2: a falling knife. They need to see a trend in data,
Speaker 2: and that is codified by the annual To take three
Speaker 2: month data and then pretend it's a twelve month statistic
Speaker 2: and that's a three month annualized I guess, I guess
Speaker 2: looked at Jason Furman out on Twitter for some real
Speaker 2: good guidance on that, as he holds the court at
Speaker 2: Harvard in X ten, holding the court for years. In
Speaker 2: a synthesis of what we're doing is Michael Purvis. He's
Speaker 2: at tallback and with all sorts of credit heritage on
Speaker 2: Wall Street, and he and I and Damian Sassar are
Speaker 2: sitting in today for Paul Sweeney. I mean, the fact
Speaker 2: is there was bitcoin three weeks ago, there was bitcoin
Speaker 2: three days ago, there was bitcoin three minutes ago, Michael
Speaker 2: Purvis on the spike in bitcoin, What is the market
Speaker 2: structure of bitcoin?
Speaker 4: Oh? The uh, well, I think you just gave. I
Speaker 4: was going to make a quip that, you know, bit
Speaker 4: coin going rallies to fresh time highs as it just
Speaker 4: does it make a sound you know today whereas you
Speaker 4: know just a few years ago, you know what a
Speaker 4: famously broke twenty thousand and every institutional investor had to
Speaker 4: happen a view on it.
Speaker 2: Is it a market structure or is it contrived?
Speaker 4: I think it's contrived.
Speaker 2: Michael Purvis not mincing words here, here's the background in this,
Speaker 2: and I said, good morning and good afternoon worldwide to
Speaker 2: all of you in support of bitcoin. I will observe
Speaker 2: is a general statement. It's been hugely generational. The best
Speaker 2: work on this and the work that I read in
Speaker 2: Michael Purvis reads is the Bank of International Settlements in Geneva, Switzerland.
Speaker 2: The stereotype is there's the central banker to the central banks.
Speaker 2: What you need to know is it's a huge academic
Speaker 2: combine and with the leadership of Raphael Hour, the Bank
Speaker 2: of International Settlements has the smartest eight page ten page,
Speaker 2: six page essays and the heart of the matter of
Speaker 2: their research that they've really dived into is that this
Speaker 2: is a retail speculative phenomenon, that most of the volume
Speaker 2: in bitcoin is around people trading it for a higher
Speaker 2: price or trading it for a lower price. And that's
Speaker 2: really the summary from the best and brightest, and that
Speaker 2: alludes to what you heard from Michael Purvis. What I
Speaker 2: can tell you is each and every day bitcoin goes
Speaker 2: up at Bloomberg looked at Crypto, it's a franchise, some
Speaker 2: real smart conversations, including with bitcoin positives as well. We
Speaker 2: have Katie Greifeld and others give us the reporting here
Speaker 2: on this event of bitcoin. The last I looked in
Speaker 2: the terminal, it's seventy one thousand. We thank you for
Speaker 2: your attention to single best idea. Wonderful to have doctor
Speaker 2: Coronado and mister Purvis with us today. Have no clue
Speaker 2: who will have tomorrow. We'll make it up tomorrow on
Speaker 2: Apple car plays, on YouTube, search Bloomberg Podcast, all of
Speaker 2: that for Bloomberg surveyor listen