1 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at 3 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and I'm gonna hir across acid reporter also at Bloomberg, 4 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: and this week on the show, Well, this was a 5 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: monumental week because it marked the point where the US 6 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: stock market actually doubled from the pandemic lows of at 7 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 1: least if you're looking at the main benchmark, the SMP five. 8 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: What does that mean going forward? Have easy gains already 9 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: been made? And are we do for a rough patch 10 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 1: next year? We'll get into it with the co chief 11 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: investment strategist at a major asset management firm and uh Vltana. 12 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, I'm very excited this week. Um, 13 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: I'm excited most weeks for the podcast. I gotta say 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: I'm I'm very easily excitable, but I'm especially excited this 15 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: week because we got a call a voicemail to the 16 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg podcast hotline. Now, granted it was someone who works 17 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg, so the call literally was coming from inside 18 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,759 Speaker 1: the house, but it still counts and I'm very excited 19 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 1: and that that's sort of a reminder to me that 20 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: I have not been reminding people to call the hotline, 21 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: so hopefully you're more organized than me and have the 22 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: number handy. What is what is the hotline number of 23 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: Bill Dona? This is a quiz, This is a test 24 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 1: for you. I'm way more organized than you, and thankfully 25 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: I have it on hand. So if anybody has the 26 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: craziest thing that they saw internally from Bloomberg or fans 27 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: outside of Bloomberg, you can give us a call at 28 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: six four six three two four three four nine zero 29 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:42,559 Speaker 1: and we may even play the voicemail on the show. 30 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: Great and you know what, I'm going to start with 31 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: a crazy thing. It's not market related, but I've just 32 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: been informed that our guest this week is up north 33 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: of Boston where they're actually getting tornado warnings, which I 34 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: did not think Boston was a very tornado prone place. 35 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 1: But tell about that. Our guest this week, her name 36 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: is Emily are Roland. She's the co chief investment strategist 37 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: at John Hancock Investment Management. Emily, are you on a 38 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: bunker right now? Shelter? What what's going on? I'm worried 39 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: about you. This podcast is far too important for me 40 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: to be sheltering from this tornado. I'm willing to be 41 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: blown over for Bloomberg. But yeah, we're we're in a 42 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: tornado watch right now. It looks like the weather is 43 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: starting to improve, so we should be in pretty good 44 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 1: shape here. I have a swage that children's fears, and 45 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: I think we everybody should be okay, alright, good, good 46 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: to know if you so. If your screen suddenly goes dark, 47 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I don't know what. We'll send Voldonta up 48 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 1: to dig you out. Is that all right with you? 49 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 1: Voldona happy to help. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. 50 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: It's crazier for weather that we had a bunch of 51 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: tornadoes in New Jersey. I don't remember that before. I 52 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 1: know you had one, your parents had one year Trenton. 53 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: Very strange year for weather. But hopefully, uh, once the 54 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: summer is over, we'll get back normal. But Emily, let's 55 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: get to that market discussion. You know, someone pointed out 56 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: to me this week. Um, it's kind of hard to believe, 57 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: but the US stock market, at least looking at the 58 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: sp has doubled since the pandemic lose, which you know, 59 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: we all sat here on our screens watching it happened. 60 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: So I don't know why it should be such a 61 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: surpriser shock to me. But I think when you hit 62 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 1: that milestone of a doubled market, it's it's a good 63 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: time to reflect and just sort of get your take 64 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: on you know, what did we learn? What did did 65 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 1: you learn anything that you didn't know about the market 66 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: in the past year. I'm not sure anyone really would 67 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: have guessed we'd see the market double from the lows 68 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: if if you took a time machine back to March 69 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: of But what's your takeaway about just sort of this 70 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: crazy rally we've seen in equities um and and are 71 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: there any lessons that we should sort of stow away 72 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: for the future from this? Yeah, I mean, I think 73 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: the lesson learned is if you want to stimulate the 74 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: stock market, spend about fIF of GDP on fiscal stimulus 75 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: and have the Fed double the size of their balance 76 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: sheet in pretty short order. So certainly those have been 77 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: the two biggest tail winds for the market since the 78 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: March low of last year. And I think one of 79 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: the most interesting and notable things about this bull market 80 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: that's been unfolding is that it's made of Teflon. There 81 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 1: have not been any corrections really to speak up, or 82 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: draw downs of more than five percent. The dip buyers 83 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: have come out in full force now. Usually when we 84 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: look at previous bull markets coming off of bear market lows, 85 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: year two is a lot harder than year one. So 86 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: in year one we see this meaningful asset appreciation. We 87 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: see basically the rally and everything, any type of risk 88 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: you want to take is rewarded. Typically in year two 89 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: markets become a bit more choppy, and certainly we saw 90 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: that after oh eight and oh nine where we saw 91 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: a big correction and coming into year two of that 92 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 1: of that bowl market, and this time we simply have 93 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 1: not seen the volatility. So markets are looking past it. 94 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 1: We've got easy central banks still in place, still, fiscal 95 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: stimulus tail winds, and earnings growth is just going through 96 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 1: the roof. So those have been really powerful factors I 97 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,799 Speaker 1: think driving markets higher. And then at the same time, 98 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: I had a story earlier this week that said options 99 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: tape for virus traders picked their poison, and I am 100 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: hearing from a lot more people that there's just some 101 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,359 Speaker 1: worries swirling around. So I'm wondering how you guys are positioning. 102 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 1: If you're positioning more defensively, maybe you can tell us 103 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: a bit more about your strategy. Yeah. I think the 104 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: spread of the delta Varrian has been exacerbating a backdrop 105 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: that was already in place, which is that economic growth 106 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: continues to be strong, and we've seen that this week 107 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: with the leading indicators coming in at ten percent growth 108 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: year every year. That's a great reading. But it's starting 109 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: to moderate, and it's become clear to us that the 110 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: peak and the economic data was probably back in April. 111 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,239 Speaker 1: Now it's not an extraordinarily bearished message. You can still 112 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 1: be a powerful driver for risk assets as the economy 113 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: continues to improve, but we are seeing that moderation and 114 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: growth play out, and what that means to us from 115 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: an investment positioning standpoint is that it's time to be 116 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 1: more thoughtful about what you own. We talked before about 117 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 1: kind of the risk everything rally. It didn't matter what 118 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: you bought over the last twelve months or so. Now 119 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: as we sort of head into the mid cycle environment, 120 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: it becomes harder, and that's one of the reasons we've 121 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: been really focused on things like the quality factor, so 122 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: looking for companies and sectors and have great balance sheets, 123 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: good return on equity, the ability to maintain margins regardless 124 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: of the economic growth backdrop. To us, that's going to 125 00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 1: be increasingly important. I've been thinking about this analogy. Summer's 126 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 1: winding down here in Boston. My my kids were on 127 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: the swim team this year. Um, they weren't very good, 128 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: but I noticed the other day they handed out all 129 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: the ribbons, right or the medals that they want in 130 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: all their swim team races, and I noticed they came 131 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: home with a bunch of them. I thought, well, every 132 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,239 Speaker 1: kid really does get a ribbon. And then I started thinking, 133 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: it's kind of like the market over the last fifteen 134 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: months or so, everybody gets a ribbon. And I think 135 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: as we transition into this mid cycle environment, it's going 136 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: to be more like the Olympics, where it's just going 137 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: to be the best who are really rewarded. So again 138 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: that's the reason for the focus on fundamentals and the 139 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: focus on that quality factor as we evaluate the investment opportunities. 140 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: God bless you, Emily. I uh, thankfully none of my 141 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: kids were swimmers, but I know that every swim meet 142 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: is approximately thirty seven hours long. Somehow, somehow, so I'm 143 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: sure it's been a long summer, and congratulations on the ribbons, said, 144 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: I think that the reason for the many ribbons is 145 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: there's also about eight hundred events that every swim meet, 146 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: so there's plenty of plenty of chance to to Uh. 147 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: I wanted so I was, I was reading one of 148 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: your recent pieces of commentary, and I wanted to ask 149 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: you about something in it. Um and you, as you 150 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: put it out, you know this the fiscal stimulus that's 151 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: in the rear view mirror, I mean, unprecedented, the five 152 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: trailing as you point out the direct payments, you know 153 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: what they used to call helicopter money basically, and um, yes, 154 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: we've got some more coming from the infrastructure spending bills. 155 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: We don't know exactly how much yet, but there's something 156 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: in the pipeline. Um obviously not going to be as 157 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: big of a a sort of injection of money into 158 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: the economy as as we saw last year. But um 159 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: um And you make a good point, you say, uh, 160 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: you know this and your not this stimulus is unlikely 161 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 1: to be matched talking about last year's um and if 162 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: that's stimulus that we just did not create a higher 163 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: tenure treasury yield it is n likely that a smaller 164 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: package that is less direct in dissemination into the economy 165 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: creates a meaningful higher yield than where we are. You 166 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: know from sort of the supply of treasuries that that 167 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: makes sense to me. But I do wonder about the 168 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: other side of the ledger with you know, who's buying 169 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: the treasuries. We we have the Fed buying eighty billion 170 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: a month in treasuries forty billion in mortgage backed securities. 171 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: The tapering, The time to talk about talking about tapering 172 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: is over, and now I think it's the time to 173 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: actually start tapering very soon. Um. If you listen to 174 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: James Bullard of the Fed this week, uh he said, 175 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: And I don't know if this is just sort of 176 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: bravado talk, but he said he wants the tapering to 177 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: be finished by the end of the first quarter of 178 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: next year, which would imply a very aggressive uh pace 179 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:53,079 Speaker 1: of tapering, at least compared to the last time they 180 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 1: tried to get out out from under QUEI and which 181 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 1: you know famously caused the taper attention. UM, So I wonder, 182 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: you know, I guess there's two ways that could play out. 183 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: You know, you remove this huge buyer from the treasury 184 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: market in the fed UM And my first instinct would be, well, 185 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: obviously yields are gonna go higher. But then you know, 186 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: on the second thought, it's like, well, is it going 187 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: to create this risk off environment everyone's going to freak 188 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: out about the tapering And is that actually gonna cause 189 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: people to pile back into treasuries and yields to go lower? 190 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: So how much is the tapering sort of play into 191 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: your view and yields and which side you know it could? 192 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: Could both of those sort of be true and that 193 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 1: we see a spike and yields and then sort of 194 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: a risk off environment. I don't know, how do you 195 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: all see it playing out once we do push the 196 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: button on tapering? Can I just say sorry? Can I 197 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: just say, Mike, you get ribbons for the longest question 198 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: in the industry of the world. That's nothing much longer. 199 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: I'm about to say the same thing. And there were 200 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: so many juicy nuggets and questions in there, and I 201 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: think you've hit on something that is so crucial tomorrow 202 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: gets right now, which is you know, what impact does 203 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: tapering have? And if you look back at the last 204 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: two examples when QWI ended so if you look at 205 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: you know, QUE two QWE three UM. Actually what happened 206 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: was that when the FED started to taper or started, 207 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: you know, stopped increasing the size of its balance sheets sheet, 208 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: the tenure treasury yield actually fell. And it's for the 209 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: exact reason that you pointed out, which is that the 210 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: Fed's basically removing the punch bowl, which is feeding risk 211 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: assets and causing investors to want to take more risks. 212 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: So when the FED starts to pull the punch bowl away, 213 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: that creates this risk off environment where investors actually start 214 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: to embrace treasuries again. So that's one reason we actually 215 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: see ultimately the path of the ten year treasury moving 216 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 1: lower for here from here, another thing to think about. 217 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 1: Typically what happens in terms of the ten year treasury 218 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: is the yield peaks right after a risk session, and 219 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: we saw and that's true if you look back at 220 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: the last four recessions in the US, and so what 221 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: we saw in terms of a closing yield of one 222 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: seventy four on March thirty one of this year, and 223 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: our view, it's got to be on the table in 224 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: the conversation that that was potentially the peak in the 225 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: yield of the ten year treasury. Now we might see 226 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: some further backup, maybe an infrastructure package. Personally, I don't 227 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be potent enough to really accelerate growth. 228 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: It's going to be spread out over a number of years. Um. 229 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: It's not going to be done via direct transfer payments 230 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: or stimulus checks. I think it'll probably be less stimulative. UM. 231 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: So I just don't see the catalyst to move the 232 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: ten year treasury higher from here in a meaningful way. Emily, 233 00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: what about the stock market? Because I was wondering what 234 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: you're playing book might be for FED tapering. Obviously this 235 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 1: week we had the minutes and they showed that a 236 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: lot of the officials see a taper potentially starting this year. 237 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: So what what will be your playbook for this scenario? Yeah, 238 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: I mean I think it would be a risk to 239 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: the markets. I think the Fed has been so transparent. 240 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: You know, Powell has been so resolute in his messaging 241 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: and crystal clear to us that you know they're they're 242 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: very much committed to this average inflation targeting framework. They're 243 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: very much committed to making substantial progress on their economic goals, 244 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: you know, letting the jobs market fully heal. We just 245 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: had two great jobs reports. Is that enough to create 246 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: this sort of quote unquote string of good economic data 247 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: that the FED would like to see? And we're on 248 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 1: our way there. So there has been a bit of 249 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: a shift to a more you know, hawkish approach from 250 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: the Fed, but it's been well telegraphed. So I think 251 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 1: equity markets can handle it. Um. And you know, you've 252 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 1: got to remember that as the said starts easing up here, 253 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 1: that's not a necessarily a bad thing. It means the 254 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 1: economy is continuing to heal, and it means growth is 255 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: picking up. Um. So that's a good thing. Um. So 256 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: I think equity markets could take it in stride. Um. 257 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: I think you know, one of the bigger risk that's 258 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: not being priced into the equity market right now is 259 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: potential tax increases, particularly on the corporate tax side. Um. 260 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: You know, markets tend we we look at some great 261 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: research and Dan Clifton over its strategious research partner, just 262 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: put Partners just put a note out uh this week 263 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: that you know, basically suggests markets worry about higher corporate 264 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: tax rates when it's time to worry about higher corporate 265 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: tax rates, meaning that when they're actually kind of you know, 266 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: it looks quite likely that they're going to be put 267 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: in into into law, so that might be sometime this fall, 268 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: and you might see equity markets get a little bit 269 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: big jetty around that as it might knock uh you know, 270 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: maybe five or even ten percent off that corporate earnings outlook. 271 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 1: So something to think about there in terms of what 272 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: might create the volatility in the stock market going forward. 273 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: So is it the type of scenario that perhaps investors 274 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: have already priced in to some degree the infrastructure stimulus, 275 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: but not this notion that we're gonna have to go 276 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: back and talk about paying for government spending again and 277 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: not just run deficits to free fall? Is you know, 278 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: sort of a two sided coin and the market is 279 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: only looking at one at this point. I think that's right. 280 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 1: And you know, markets were continuing to hit you know, 281 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: new all time Hiyes, recently we've seen a little bit 282 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: of choppiness UM as of late. But I think right 283 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: now markets are not thinking about that, They're not anticipating that, um. 284 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: They're they're focused on some of these these keytail winds 285 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: that continue to exist around reopening, around that strong earnings 286 00:15:55,200 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: back drop, and around continued supportive policy. I covered the 287 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: Robin Hood earnings earlier this week, and essentially they said 288 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: that retail mania is cooling. I think they warned about 289 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: seasonal headwinds. So I'm wondering if you agree with that 290 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: and what it means for markets. So we look at 291 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: the activity in retail trading, particularly around the meme stocks, 292 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: as our kind of gauge of sentiment, of market sentiment. 293 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: And when you start to see these pockets of frothiness 294 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: or these pockets of speculation building in the market, you know, 295 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: that's a that's a notch against wanting to embrace equities. 296 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: So when we start to see some of that sentiment cool, 297 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: you know, we we also watch things like cryptocurrencies is 298 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: another sort of sentiment indicator. When that starts to cool, 299 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: to us, that's a sign that you know, potentially this 300 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: equity market actually has more legs and sentiment is not 301 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: moving against it. So we still want to own equities here. 302 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: And I'm not totally upset about the fact that, you know, 303 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: maybe some of that frenzy and retail spending is starting 304 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: to cool. Hey, maybe people are just getting back to work. Um, 305 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: you know, we know some of the some of the 306 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 1: additional jobless benefits are starting to expire in many states, 307 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 1: or maybe people are getting back to school. I can 308 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 1: tell you that my eleven year old begged me if 309 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: he could open up a robin Hood account so he 310 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 1: could start trading using his hundred dollars from his first 311 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: communion money. So now that he's getting back into the classroom, 312 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: maybe his interest in a day trading is starting to 313 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: uh subside. Here something to think about, Oh boy, eleven 314 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: years old, and once though for the rabbit I had 315 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 1: my seventh year senior old wanted open one and I 316 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: thought that was young. But eleven boy, I'd love to 317 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: know the stock picks of your eleven year old sometime 318 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 1: though you can. I think you can guess you can 319 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: have anything that's wildly risky. And by the way, his 320 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 1: I realized this the other day. You know, his entire 321 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: experience with investing, which started in the beginning of the lockdowns, 322 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: involves every everything going up. So he hasn't had the 323 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 1: experience that the rest of us had and have had 324 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: in terms of thinking about risk tolerance and trying to 325 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 1: figure out how much you can stomach in terms of losses. 326 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,959 Speaker 1: So I think it's going to be an interesting period 327 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: for him to to learn and grow. But speaking of 328 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: that as well, we were looking at some data that 329 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: was showing cash is actually slowly starting to build up 330 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: in portfolios and potentially, as you said, some of that 331 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: euphoric buying from earlier in the year is potentially fading away. 332 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: So what would that mean for for markets? But what 333 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: do we make of the idea that potentially we don't 334 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: have the buy the dip mentality anymore going forward? Yeah, 335 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: we are seeing if you look at the fun flow data. 336 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 1: I think it's a great point, Bill Donna, because you're 337 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: seeing investors continue to have a more conservative mindset in 338 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: terms of where they're investing. We saw money market balances 339 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: UM hit something like six trillion dollars at the height 340 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: of the pandemic. That they started to come back down again, 341 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: which they typically do coming out of an election, coming 342 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 1: out of a recession, but we've actually started to see 343 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 1: the interest in money market funds go back up. The 344 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 1: number one asset gathering category UM is tax free bonds, 345 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: and as we know, that's a huge challenge right now 346 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: in terms of finding a way to generate yield in 347 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: an environment which yields are extraordinary look extraordinarily low, and 348 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,880 Speaker 1: in our view, they're probably going to stay that way. Um, 349 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: you know, we don't see the Fed going anywhere. We 350 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 1: think they're going to have a really hard time raising rates. 351 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: Is the yield curve is actually flattening right now. The 352 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: stead doesn't want to risk raising rates into potentially an 353 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: inverting yield curve. So as we watch this investor behavior 354 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: of looking to money market funds, looking to bond strategies, 355 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: we've got to be really careful here about the approach 356 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: to risk while still giving investors the ability to generate yield. 357 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: So for us, the sweet spot really has been going 358 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,959 Speaker 1: into in some grade corporate bonds, looking at the higher 359 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: rungs of the high yield bond market, the double bees 360 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: that have the ability to be upgraded as this economic 361 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: recovery continues to unfold. And then look, every little bit 362 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: counts in terms of generating yield right now. So when 363 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: we put a you know, a potential portfolio together, we're 364 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 1: trying to get to something like two or three percent. 365 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: I know it doesn't sound exciting. Fixed incomes not always exciting, um, 366 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: but we're looking at that without going over our skis 367 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,640 Speaker 1: too much and taking risk within fixed income and not 368 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: getting ourselves over exposed to just plain old equity market risk. 369 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: So when you look at the lower rungs of the 370 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 1: high yeld bond market, that's really what you're getting. So 371 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: it's this combination of investment grade corporate bonds, high high 372 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: yield bonds, and then still an allocation to higher quality 373 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 1: bonds to protect during those periods where you know, equity 374 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: market volatility wears its ugly head. I don't know if 375 00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,239 Speaker 1: you can get it to two or three percent. That's 376 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: pretty exciting these days, Emily, is if you can denominate 377 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: that in Euros, I think you'll have a lot of 378 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 1: people knocking on your door, especially to UH to get 379 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 1: on that. But I wanted to ask you about you know, 380 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: and uh Vlbonna and her colleagues recently wrote about this. Um. 381 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 1: Katie grit Felt, one of our colleagues especially, I think, 382 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: wrote about this dirty word that I I I gotta say. 383 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 1: Earlier in the year, I was afraid to even say 384 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 1: this word out loud. I was afraid I would get 385 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: chased off of the zoom call or wherever I was speaking. 386 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: But the notion of stag inflation, and I think you know, 387 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,959 Speaker 1: earlier in the year, it seemed like such a ridiculous 388 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: sort of tail risk to worry about because the everyone 389 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: assumed the GDP growth would just be off the charts 390 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,719 Speaker 1: as everyone got vaccinated and got back to the world. 391 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 1: And I'm I'm winding up here. I'm like a supervillain 392 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: here in a movie. I'm monologue a little bit here. 393 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: But but bear with me. I'll get to the question eventually. 394 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: But you know, you look now, and okay, everyone is 395 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:05,400 Speaker 1: still sort of confident that the FEDS right inflations transitory. 396 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 1: I don't know if they're as confident as they were 397 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,159 Speaker 1: about that. Um. And at the same time, you know, 398 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: this delta variant is unlikely to cause sort of these 399 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: draconian lockdown measures that we saw last year. I don't 400 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: think anyone in the country or in the world really 401 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 1: has the stomach or sort of the political good will 402 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 1: to be able to pull that off. That said, I know, 403 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 1: you know, you wonder if people are just sort of 404 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: self imposed going to start thinking twice about taking a trip, 405 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: we're going out to eat, or just you know, doing 406 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: anything in a crowd. Um. And at the same time, 407 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: you look over in China and you see like part 408 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: of a ports being shut down because of one case 409 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 1: of COVID causing UH these bottlenecks that we had hoped 410 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: would be alleviated by now to sort of be another 411 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: risk to the supply chain. UM, if that sort of 412 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: situation should be repeated. I know there's some some factories 413 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,919 Speaker 1: in in Asia that have closed down already, you know, 414 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:04,640 Speaker 1: some Samsung UH plants and stuff like that. So where 415 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: do you put stagflation is sort of a market risk 416 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: right now? Is it a very thin tail risk? Or 417 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, is it a is the terrorist that's getting fatter? What? 418 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: What's your take? You know, a few months ago, I 419 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: would have said it's it's highly unlikely. I think now 420 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 1: it's it's on the table as a risk for a 421 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: lot of the reasons that you've pointed out. We've now 422 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: got supply chain disruptions, UM that are probably going to 423 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: be extended or they're already extended. You look at the 424 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: shortage and chips that continues to impact automakers. You look 425 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 1: at the shutdown of these ports and the lines of 426 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 1: of of cargo ships outside this Los Angeles shipping terminals. UM. 427 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: You know all of this is certainly UM, you know, 428 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 1: a big challenge to the narrative that inflation is transitory. 429 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: You also see areas like Shelter, which is a third 430 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: of of CPI, which is showing some stickiness in terms 431 00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: of rents moving higher. Certainly wage growth another complain on it. 432 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: UM it's awfully hard for companies to learn in workers 433 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: by offering higher wages and then lower them. Uh. You 434 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 1: know that's not going to happen. And by the way, 435 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: that's not totally bad news. It's clearly good for the consumer, 436 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 1: particularly if if goods inflation starts to moderate, wage inflations elevated. Uh, 437 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 1: that that contributes to a strengthening consumer, which we know 438 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: is going to be critical to the the economic recovery. UM. 439 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,879 Speaker 1: We also see you know, consumers starting to in a 440 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: way sort of protest higher prices. You know, you're seeing 441 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 1: some dents in the housing market now is is housing 442 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: becomes unaffordable. You're seeing investors put off purchases of areas 443 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: that are seeing higher prices. UM. And then of course 444 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: the delta variant. We're seeing that impact all this high 445 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,640 Speaker 1: frequency data that I never would have guessed a couple 446 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: of years ago. I would be looking at things like 447 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: T s a checkpoint numbers and open table reservations. They 448 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: haven't rolled off, but they're starting to level out. So 449 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: it's an indication that, you know, maybe this period of 450 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: uncertainty is prolonged a bit and that couldn't ultimately translate 451 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: into inflation. You know, no one's defined transitory yet, I 452 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,960 Speaker 1: don't know what it means. The FED really hasn't said, 453 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 1: you know what it means. So potentially it lasts a 454 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 1: little bit longer. But our base cases that you see 455 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 1: in inflationary pressures wane as we head into two. And 456 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 1: one of the key reasons for that um is that 457 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: there's some powerful disinflationary forces that we think should reassert themselves, 458 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,639 Speaker 1: technology being the number one thing. The more improvements you 459 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: make in efficiency using technology that pushes down inflationary pressures. 460 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: And that's the reason that my entire career I've listened 461 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:50,199 Speaker 1: to investors start to position for higher inflation and guess what, 462 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: it never pans out right, because technology is such a 463 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:58,400 Speaker 1: wildly disinflationary force. You also start to see the base effects, 464 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: which were your best friend over the last number of 465 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: quarders here become your worst enemy as you head into two. 466 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 1: So the mass starts to work in the opposite direction 467 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 1: um where the comps are actually much higher as we 468 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 1: had into two, and it's likely to see we're likely 469 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 1: to see lower readings next year because of that. So 470 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: maybe lasts a little bit longer than anticipated, but we 471 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: still believe that into two we should see these pressures 472 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: start to mattery. Emily, if we think about all of 473 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 1: these things that we just talked about, is it is 474 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 1: that one of the reasons that it's been a bit 475 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: more difficult to make judgment calls on a lot of things. 476 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 1: I know there was a Bank of America note that 477 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: said ten year yields could either be sliding below one 478 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: percent by year end, or they could be surging as 479 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: high as two percent, which is just a huge gap. 480 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: And so what how difficult is it to to be 481 00:26:53,040 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 1: making projections right now? It's incredibly difficult because we've never 482 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: done this before. Like, think about it. We figured out 483 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: how to generate inflation, right, you poor five trillion dollars 484 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: in the economy, and the Fed just buys buys bis, right, 485 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 1: we figured it out. We don't know yet how yet 486 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 1: get out of it in a clean, soft, soft landing 487 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 1: type way. So I think that that's the biggest challenge here. 488 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 1: We can look at history, but we've never had an 489 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: environment in which a global economy is completely shut down 490 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 1: and come back. We've never had a recession that lasted 491 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: a total of two months. So this market cycle is 492 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: happening at warp speed, which is one of the reasons 493 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: that I think that it becomes so challenging to navigate 494 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: these markets. I think what's important to do is maintain 495 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 1: that balanced approach, but look under the hood for where 496 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: the opportunities are. So looking at areas like US MidCap equities, 497 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: which we think are the right mix of offense in 498 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 1: a portfol without going over your skis and taking risk, 499 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 1: they have an overweight to areas like industrials, which we 500 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 1: think should benefit from things like infrastructure spending as the 501 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 1: economy reopens, CAPEX, productivity gains. You want to look at 502 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 1: the US quality factor again for those strong fundamentals and 503 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: great balance sheets. You want to have a little bit 504 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,639 Speaker 1: of value in there. But you know, I think that 505 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: this sort of you know, easy gains happened uh starting 506 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter of last year, So you want 507 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: to be thoughtful about how you approach value. It's less 508 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 1: about the highly cyclical, highest beta sectors, and more about 509 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 1: looking at areas like healthcare UM that are trading cheap 510 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 1: relative to the broad market and have those quality elements 511 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: that we that we really are focused on right now. 512 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 1: So it's really becoming more and more important to make 513 00:28:48,320 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: those decisions within your equity bucket UM as we head forward. Well, Emily, 514 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: as you said, it's a challenging time, a difficult time 515 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: to make projections. It's also difficult to top fill Donna 516 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: when it comes to the craziest things in markets in 517 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 1: the past week. In our weekly tradition, here stand clear 518 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: of the craziest things we saw in markets this week. 519 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 1: I'll give you fair warning. Vildanna brings an a game 520 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 1: to this. But before we before we hear hers, I 521 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 1: want to hear that voicemail we got it. I gotta 522 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: sneak peek of it. So uh, I'm curious if you 523 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: have some thoughts on this. Listen up, it's a good one. 524 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 1: Hey guys, it's Police Marints from Bloomberg Markets Live. The 525 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: craziest thing I saw this week was talent here buying 526 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 1: fifty million dollars worth of gold bars. When's the last 527 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: time you saw a big tech company buying the lowest 528 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 1: thing gold that there is. It seems like a really 529 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 1: interesting way for them to invest their cash. Maybe there's 530 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 1: something that the Peter Kiel backed company knows that the 531 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 1: rest of US doesn't know, especially since they're one of 532 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 1: the world's biggest data minors, you know, Emily, this this 533 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 1: sounds like the flip side of the coin. So like 534 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: micro Strategy or Tesla putting bitcoin on their balance sheets, 535 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 1: someone actually putting gold. I don't think I've ever heard 536 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 1: of this is like a cash management, uh solution. Have 537 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 1: you ever heard of a company with just you know, 538 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 1: keeping their cash in gold. It's it's bizarre, that's so funny. 539 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: I was thinking the exact same thing when I heard 540 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: that about about cryptocurrencies. Um, No, I haven't. And that 541 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 1: you know, I think in terms of gold, you know, 542 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 1: it's it's lost, it's it's luster here, you know, to us, 543 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: and certainly as of late, you know what what gold 544 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: typically needs in order to outperform or to perform well, 545 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 1: here is a week or dollar in in higher inflation. 546 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,960 Speaker 1: So while it might be kind of a potential play 547 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 1: on some of those macro forces here over the short term, um, 548 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: I think there's much better options out there for for 549 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 1: this company. For sure. It's a it's an unusual scenario 550 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 1: we have now where we have a high inflation and 551 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 1: a strong dollar. That's a that's a tricky one, not 552 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 1: something not something you've see in the textbooks very often. 553 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: But Vil donna Um, let's go with you, because I 554 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 1: know you've got something good for us. What's the craziest 555 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 1: thing you saw this week? I do if you remember, 556 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: a couple of days ago, there was a huge hack 557 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,600 Speaker 1: of one of the cryptocurrency defied platforms. It was one 558 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: of the biggest in the space, and so earlier this 559 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,400 Speaker 1: week one of our colleagues over care reported that the 560 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 1: platform Polly Network, the one that got hacked, ended up 561 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: offering a job to the hacker, and they are offering 562 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 1: him chief security advisor. That would be his I'm assuming 563 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: it's a heat that would be his his role. Which 564 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 1: is which is so interesting because apparently this hacker has 565 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 1: been returning some of the money he or she I 566 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 1: should say, had hacked and and now also has a 567 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 1: job offer from the company that a white hat hacker 568 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 1: as they say, who uh, And I've read some interesting 569 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 1: stuff about it. He I guess the goal is, you know, 570 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: he wants to sort of solve these crypto problems so 571 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: that the whole UH industry does not get get tired 572 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: and feathered. Because I'm pretty pretty interesting. Stuff. That's pretty good, Emily. 573 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 1: I don't know, do you have anything crazy for us 574 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: this week? You know what, I kind of got a 575 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 1: heads up that this might be a question, and I 576 00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,479 Speaker 1: was thinking about it in a way too studious, in 577 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 1: serious way. I think, so maybe if you had maybe 578 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: if you have me back on, I'll try to think 579 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 1: of something more fun. But I think one of the 580 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: most notable dynamics that's played out this week is just 581 00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: the continued pressure that we've seen in Chinese equities, in 582 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: particular some of the tech names. And I think it's 583 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 1: so interesting and I guess weird because coming into this year, 584 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,959 Speaker 1: I think we can all agree that one of the 585 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 1: biggest consensus calls among investors was to be overweight emerging 586 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 1: market equities UM, and I think that kind of went 587 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 1: hand in hand with, you know, a week or dollar 588 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 1: higher commodity prices. You know, I'm naming like a handful 589 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 1: of you know, pain trades that we've seen play out 590 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,880 Speaker 1: over the course of the year, and when we actually 591 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 1: came into the third quarter, UM, we had we downgraded 592 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,600 Speaker 1: emerging market equities and this was before some of these 593 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: regulatory challenges emerged. UM, just on slowing growth. UM. We 594 00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 1: noted that, you know, Chinese policymakers were starting to take 595 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 1: the foot off the gas in terms of fiscal stimulus, 596 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,040 Speaker 1: so that sort of credit impulse had begun to roll 597 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 1: over in China, and we started to see p m 598 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 1: I s, while still elevated about fifty, you know, decelerating, 599 00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: so we decided to take some chips off the table 600 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: in the margin market equities. Of course, now I wish 601 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: we had gone more negative on them UM, but we 602 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: did up our exposure to Europe with those UH proceeds 603 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 1: based on a better economic growth trajectory and backdrop there. 604 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 1: So I think a big challenge there for investors UM. 605 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 1: And we're seeing some of those Chinese internet et s. 606 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,360 Speaker 1: The dip buying has has sees has been put on 607 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: pause over the last few days, so no longer sort 608 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 1: of seeing that bid there from investors. So tough, tough, 609 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 1: tough times in that part of the market for sure, Yeah, 610 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,280 Speaker 1: you know, and it's it's interesting to see it because 611 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 1: of sort of such a self inflicted type of situation, 612 00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,879 Speaker 1: you know, China really causing all this on its own. 613 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,280 Speaker 1: But I guess you know, uh, someone pointed out to me, well, uh, 614 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 1: Si Shing Ping has his sort of left flank of 615 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 1: the political party that he has to deal with as well, 616 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,399 Speaker 1: so not too dissimilar to the US, and they've got 617 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,600 Speaker 1: a big, big political reshuffling coming up. I think it's 618 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 1: either next year the following year, so um politics, Paul 619 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,279 Speaker 1: Ticks is always the wild card risk factor, I guess. 620 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: But all right, I'm going to dip again, as I 621 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,239 Speaker 1: like to do, into the alternative st class. And I 622 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,120 Speaker 1: really mean it when I say alternative, this time collectible 623 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,920 Speaker 1: bathing suits. Who knew there was such a thing as 624 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 1: collectible bathing suits? But a funny story from Britain's Telegraph 625 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,320 Speaker 1: about some of the mostly James Bond movies. Apparently the 626 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 1: bathing suits in the James Bond movies are pretty hot, 627 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,360 Speaker 1: but some other movies too. So I'm gonna put you 628 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,400 Speaker 1: both on the spot here. I'm gonna tell you some 629 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,720 Speaker 1: of the famous bathing suits that have gone up for auction, 630 00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 1: and you tell me I want to hear both of 631 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 1: you tell me which one you think sold for the most. 632 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 1: One was the James Bond movie Doctor No. That's one 633 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 1: of the early ones from the sixties. I guess. Uh. 634 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 1: The actress Ursula Andress had a white bikini. Uh that 635 00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,640 Speaker 1: went off and sold at auction at Christie's last year, 636 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 1: So that's one of them. For the men's where category, 637 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 1: we've got the infamous pair of navy and powder blue 638 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,000 Speaker 1: shorts sized charge and made in Italy by La Perla, 639 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 1: worn by Daniel Craig in two thousand and six is 640 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 1: Casino Casino Royal and they were actually a tribute to 641 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 1: that actress from the Doctor No, so they went up 642 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:18,880 Speaker 1: for sale. Finally, we've got uh, Carrie Fisher's Princess Leia 643 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 1: bikini Wren in Return of the Jedi, but not is 644 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:26,680 Speaker 1: rolling her eyes here? I don't know she obvious answer. 645 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:28,919 Speaker 1: I don't think she's seen any of these movies. So 646 00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 1: I've seen all of them. It's it's the Princess Lea want. 647 00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,359 Speaker 1: So you're going, Princess Leia. You just had that much 648 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,200 Speaker 1: faith in the in the Star Wars faith for sure. 649 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: And I love Baby Yoda to all the offshoots and 650 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 1: everything alright, baby, Emily, you're agree You're going with Princess 651 00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:50,839 Speaker 1: Leiah as the I will say that if I were 652 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: in your shoes, I would have agreed with both of 653 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 1: you guys. I would have thought that would have been 654 00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: the one. Those Star Star Wars nerds are something else. 655 00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,879 Speaker 1: But well, tell me this, what do you guys think 656 00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 1: the highest price of all those three? What? What do 657 00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:08,359 Speaker 1: you think Princess Lea is bikini? Fetched? Uh, crickets, because 658 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:12,320 Speaker 1: we have no idea, like a hundred thousand dollars. I 659 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 1: would guess that too, but I'm gonna go with a 660 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,400 Speaker 1: hundred and one thousand dollars. Well, you're pretty good at 661 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,360 Speaker 1: banning suit valuations here, I don't know that. That was 662 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,600 Speaker 1: pretty close to all on the nose. Ninety six thousands, 663 00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:27,000 Speaker 1: so we're sixty three thousand British pounds. That, however, was 664 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 1: not the highest priced banning suit of this list. The 665 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,760 Speaker 1: Daniel Craig blue and white trunks they sold for forty 666 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 1: four forty four thousand pounds roughly. However, the Doctor no 667 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 1: Ursula Andress white bikini three hundred and sixty thousand pounds 668 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 1: at auction last year. I I can't explain it. I 669 00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 1: would have gone with Princess Leah myself too good one. 670 00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:57,400 Speaker 1: What would make that one more valuable? Did it say? 671 00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,360 Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe it's the oldest um possibly, but 672 00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:02,840 Speaker 1: I you know, I don't know. I still would have 673 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 1: gone with the Star the Star Wars, so it's more 674 00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:09,280 Speaker 1: vintage as they would say, maybe it's more it's timeless. 675 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,799 Speaker 1: It's a white bikini. I mean, you know, it never 676 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,040 Speaker 1: goes out of style. I don't know. Emily really appreciate 677 00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,239 Speaker 1: your time in Troida Discussion. Hopefully we can get you 678 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,600 Speaker 1: back again sometime in the future. Great, thanks for having me. 679 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 1: Thanks what goes up. We'll be back next week and soil. 680 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,120 Speaker 1: Then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website 681 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 1: and app where wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love 682 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:40,760 Speaker 1: it if you took the time to rate and review 683 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 1: the show on Apple podcast so more listeners can find us. 684 00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,080 Speaker 1: How do you can find us on Twitter? Follow me 685 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,480 Speaker 1: at Reaganonymous. Bildona Hirich is at Bildona Hirich. But you 686 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:54,400 Speaker 1: can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcast. Thank you to 687 00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,400 Speaker 1: Charlie pallad Up Bloomberg Radio and the Voice of the 688 00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,920 Speaker 1: New York City subway system. What Goes Up is produced 689 00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,920 Speaker 1: by Toe for Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is 690 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 1: Francesco Leavie. Thanks for listening, See you next time.