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Speaker 1: The Big Vets on Campus podcast podcast PODA.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we all running the corn.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds remaining, so it just goes throw out to

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Speaker 1: the basket under the basket.

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Speaker 3: It's the true for the wind God imbracle.

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Speaker 2: Water hit that one from a parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Networks NC doublea tournament player prop

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Speaker 1: show for the Sweet sixteen. We have the pick and

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Speaker 1: roll game of Doctor Nick and Sean Kerner. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be dropping in my picks along the way as well.

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Speaker 1: Little spoiler alert. They're going under on everything, which means

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Speaker 1: they're not messing around. They are market movers. As soon

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Speaker 1: as these hit, they are going to drop like a stone.

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Speaker 1: And if you want to follow along in real time,

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Speaker 1: there's two great ways to do it. Be a subscriber

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Speaker 1: to Action Pro or use the quick slip links for

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Speaker 1: dropping in the YouTube chat. You can also see him

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Speaker 1: in the thread in the replies of the video if

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Speaker 1: you're watching on Twitter, because, as you know, you want

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Speaker 1: to get the best bets at the best prices. All right, guys,

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Speaker 1: let's jump into it and start with you Doctor Nick.

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Speaker 1: We talked a lot about Oscar Cluff in the first

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Speaker 1: episode last week. He had an incredible Big Ten tournament.

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Speaker 1: His usage went up, his minutes went up, points, and

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Speaker 1: rebounds went up. Then against Queens it was a laugher.

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Speaker 1: He was a little bit more impactful on the defensive

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Speaker 1: side of the ball. But then against Miami you saw

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Speaker 1: his production dip a little bit, and you're gonna ride

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Speaker 1: that thread and that's momentum, or at least negative momentum

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Speaker 1: into your pick here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're gonna go Oscar cluff And this is

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Speaker 2: available at a couple different numbers. It is his rebounds

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Speaker 2: prop and as he said, we're going under, so under

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Speaker 2: nine and a half. You can get up at three

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Speaker 2: six five or Caesars under eight and a half at

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Speaker 2: fandel I'm fine with you of those, but definitely try

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Speaker 2: to get that nine and a half cloff. The real

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Speaker 2: big thing about him is he's great at getting offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 2: He's fifth of the nation among all players that qualified

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Speaker 2: in offensive rebound percentage, but the Texas Longhorns rank seventh

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Speaker 2: nationally in our schedule adjusted defensive rebounding percentage, meaning preventing

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Speaker 2: offensive rebounds for the other team, So that is a

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Speaker 2: big drawback right there. He also has the potential to

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Speaker 2: get in foul trouble because Texas is seventh nationally in

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Speaker 2: free throw rates, so drawing fouls, and of course Madus

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Speaker 2: Voketitis he's the number three player nationally in drawing fouls,

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Speaker 2: and he's the guy that Kloff will be guarding a

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Speaker 2: lot in this game, so very high potential for foul trouble,

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Speaker 2: even with the you know fact that I'm not projecting

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Speaker 2: him to foul out or getting foul trouble. I'm projecting

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Speaker 2: thirty one thirty two minutes. I'm still showing value on

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Speaker 2: this under here. But if he goes under those minutes,

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Speaker 2: there's even a higher chance he stays under this number.

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Speaker 2: Not to mention, of course, more fouls in general that

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Speaker 2: you know, Purdue is is getting to face. Because Texas

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Speaker 2: draws so many, it means fewer rebound opportunities because you're

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Speaker 2: less likely to get rebounds off of free throw attempts

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Speaker 2: and off field goal attempts. Of course, Texas is also

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Speaker 2: on the slower side of pace. They like to shoot

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Speaker 2: from the inside, and they forced teams to shoot from

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Speaker 2: the inside, so just higher percentage shots, so more of

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Speaker 2: those possessions ending in made shots rather than misshots. If

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Speaker 2: teams are kind of shooting further away from the bucket,

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Speaker 2: So we're projecting around eight and a half. But again,

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Speaker 2: like I said, I don't mind under eight and a

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Speaker 2: half even if that's all you can get, because this

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Speaker 2: eight and a half is an average number and the

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Speaker 2: median is a little bit lower.

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Speaker 1: Sean, we're going to bring you in for a rebounding

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Speaker 1: total that's even lower. And there's two elements right off

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Speaker 1: the bat. There is the potential for foul trouble, the

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Speaker 1: availability of Nick Pringle, and then also just you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of this game flow and the pace at

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Speaker 1: which Arizona wants to play, that also factors in a

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Speaker 1: little bit, not so much in the way that Texas

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Speaker 1: plays that slow kind of half court slug, but all

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Speaker 1: of this put together, you're going under eight and a

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Speaker 1: half on the leak. You in, talk me through through

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Speaker 1: why you like this and where your cutoff would be

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Speaker 1: because everything is ptace sensitive.

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Speaker 3: So you know, Ewan's coming off a you know, back

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Speaker 3: to back stretch where he has twelve rebounds in each

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Speaker 3: of their first two games. Granted you know it was

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Speaker 3: against Hawaii and High Point, but he was also getting

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Speaker 3: the start because like you mentioned Nick Pringle was out

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Speaker 3: might still be out here. I'm just kind of assuming

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Speaker 3: that I like to assume the worst case scenario. So

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Speaker 3: assuming pringles out again here and he draws the start,

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Speaker 3: but this is you know, a much tougher matchup here

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Speaker 3: against Arizona, who are obviously an excellent rebound team. They

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Speaker 3: have plenty of size to match up against him. But

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Speaker 3: Arizona gets to the line at the twelfth highest rate

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Speaker 3: in the country, and they take two pointers at one

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Speaker 3: of the highest rates in the country as well, So

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Speaker 3: there's a decent chance that Ewan can get in some

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Speaker 3: early foul trouble where you know, even if pringles out,

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Speaker 3: you know, his minutes could be capped as a result.

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Speaker 3: So he has a very very low flow here. I'm

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Speaker 3: projecting Culser to seven and a half rebounds and that's

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Speaker 3: with you know, like a full thirty minute you know,

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Speaker 3: from him. So I just love his downside here. So

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Speaker 3: give me under eight and a half rebounds at minus

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Speaker 3: one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna try to balance out the show

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Speaker 1: here just a little bit by going over on my

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Speaker 1: first pick, Tauris Reed Junior for Yukon over twenty two

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Speaker 1: and a half points and boards. He surpassed his number

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Speaker 1: in five of his last six and I understand the

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Speaker 1: initial pushback, which is Michigan State is the best defensive

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Speaker 1: rebounding team remaining in this field, so how many offensive

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Speaker 1: rips are going to be available to him? But then

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Speaker 1: I would counter with just look at his shot attempts,

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Speaker 1: because this is a combo points and rebounds. He can

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Speaker 1: make up for it by getting to fifteen, sixteen, seventeen

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Speaker 1: points in this game. Because recently the offense has flowed

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Speaker 1: through him. There's been a lot said about the cold

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Speaker 1: shooting streak that the Yukon guards are going through. I

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Speaker 1: understand that Hurley wants them to shoot through that to

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Speaker 1: a certain degree, but it also has increased his post touches,

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Speaker 1: and in eight of his last thirteen games he's hit

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Speaker 1: double digit shot attempts. And when you look at the comps, yes,

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Speaker 1: Michigan State has really worked people off of the offensive glass.

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Speaker 1: But when they played elite bigs, like when they played

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Speaker 1: the Michigan Wolverines, both the Axel and Mares John Jr.

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Speaker 1: Both Went over this combo, as did Eric Daily from UCLA.

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Speaker 1: So I think this really just comes down to the

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Speaker 1: whistle and read Junior being able to log twenty seven

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Speaker 1: plus minutes, because if he does, I think this is

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Speaker 1: absolutely an opportunity to grab who should be, you know,

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Speaker 1: the player that they are hitching their wagonto in this one, Sean,

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Speaker 1: do you have any thoughts on this? Tears read prop

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Speaker 1: and you know this is kind of it's juiced differently

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Speaker 1: in the market. I went twenty two and a half

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Speaker 1: at minus one, twenty five. I've seen it all the

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Speaker 1: way up to plus money at twenty four.

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Speaker 3: He's a very good player.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned, the offense is going to flow through

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Speaker 1: him in those half court sets to a certain degree.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about this? And I know that

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Speaker 1: he blew up your prop against one of the craziest

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Speaker 1: outcomes of a first round game from a proper.

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Speaker 3: Perspective, Yeah, I think I'm banned from talking about him

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Speaker 3: forever and I would never want to fade him ever again.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I can fully get behind this. I knew

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Speaker 3: right away that that was toast and our models, you know,

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Speaker 3: definitely showing some value on the under. But I think

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Speaker 3: think in this case I will ignore it. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: after that last game, it'd be very hard to fain

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Speaker 3: him for me.

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Speaker 1: Tomorrow wee the Sweet sixteen and the real opening day

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Speaker 1: of Major League Baseball, not any of this appetizer crap

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Speaker 1: we have tonight. It's a great sports betting day and

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Speaker 1: you can only really get the best of it as

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Speaker 1: a better if you have Action Pro. So with Action Pro,

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Speaker 1: you'll get real time alerts whenever an expert logs a

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Speaker 1: pick in the app. Otherwise you're gonna have to wait

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Speaker 1: thirty minutes. And as we keep saying here, you want

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Speaker 1: to get the best bets at the best prices. By

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Speaker 1: the time you end up getting to it, that price

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Speaker 1: and that bet could be cooked. Plus you'll get player

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Speaker 1: prop projections for all the remaining NCAA tournament games powered

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Speaker 1: by our analytics team. Use promo code Pod twenty. It's

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Speaker 1: Once more, that's Pod twenty at sign up. All right

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Speaker 1: back to you, Nick, let's talk Sam Hoiberg from Nebraska.

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Speaker 1: You don't think he's going to necessarily be the facilitator,

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Speaker 1: the initiator of the Nebraska offense that he has been

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Speaker 1: at times this year, and that's why you're going under

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Speaker 1: on his assists sitting at four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he still will be. It's just it's not

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Speaker 2: a great spot for the whole team to generate assists here,

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Speaker 2: so we're going under on Sam Hoiberg assists. Now, it

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Speaker 2: did just come down recently at Caesars, so it's off

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Speaker 2: the board. But Bet three six five still has it

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Speaker 2: under four and a half assists. Hopefully some other books

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Speaker 2: get it up here soon at the same number, but

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Speaker 2: I love the under here. He has seven assists in

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Speaker 2: two meetings with Iowa this year, one with five and

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Speaker 2: one with two. But you know that's seven in two

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Speaker 2: games where he played thirty six minutes each, and that's

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Speaker 2: right where I'm projecting him for this game as well

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Speaker 2: as thirty six minutes, so you know, seven and two games,

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Speaker 2: it's three and a half per game. Now I'm actually

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Speaker 2: projecting more than three and a half. I'm projecting in

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Speaker 2: the low force, but that's under four and a half.

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Speaker 2: And part of it is Iowa State. I mean Iowa regular.

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Speaker 2: Iowa not State plays at such a slow plotting pace

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Speaker 2: right the fifth slowest pace in the nation. And Iowa's

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Speaker 2: defense they forced a lot of turnovers. They also foul

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Speaker 2: a lot, so a lot of pressure there. But what

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Speaker 2: that does is it causes a lot of possessions to

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Speaker 2: not end in field goal attempts, whether they force the

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Speaker 2: turnover or whether they put their opponents on the free

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Speaker 2: throw line. Then that just reduces the number of made

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Speaker 2: field goals, which reduces the potential assist availability for Heiberg

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Speaker 2: and honestly the rest of the team here, just Heuberg's

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Speaker 2: the one with the assist prop and the one we're

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Speaker 2: showing the most value on here. So I'm projecting to

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Speaker 2: stay under this around sixty percent of the time. Like

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Speaker 2: I said, low four projection, like four point one, four

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Speaker 2: point two there for his projection.

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Speaker 1: Sean, let's stick right here with this Iowa Nebraska game

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Speaker 1: rink masts his rebounding totals sitting at five and a half.

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Speaker 1: There's lots of crossover and a lot of things that

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Speaker 1: you know Nick just mentioned in terms of factors for

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Speaker 1: lower possessions. Beyond that, when you get into the number

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Speaker 1: is just purely on the glass. What you know piqued

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Speaker 1: your interest with this one.

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Speaker 3: This is one we're not showing too much value on.

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Speaker 3: But I do like the fact that we're getting you know,

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Speaker 3: plus one eighteen on the under, and a lot of

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Speaker 3: the underlying factors match up with this. It's like you

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Speaker 3: mentioned and Nick said, you know, Iowa plays at such

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Speaker 3: a slow pace, it's gonna be fewer possessions. So that's

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Speaker 3: the first box checked here. But they're also an excellent

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Speaker 3: shooting team. And for being a six foot ten center,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's not as involved on defensive rebounds as

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Speaker 3: you would expect. He usually needs a couple of offensive

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Speaker 3: boards to clear this number, and Iowa does it, you know,

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Speaker 3: decent job preventing offensive boards, so that hurts him specifically.

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Speaker 3: So just a whole host of factors kind of pointing

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Speaker 3: to the under, but more importantly just Iowa seems like

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Speaker 3: they take you know, twenty five plus seconds per possession,

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Speaker 3: so you know, those fewer possessions really start to chip

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Speaker 3: away at his projection. So like the enter here, and

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Speaker 3: again we're getting at plus one eighteen. It's a nice

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Speaker 3: value there on the under.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned from the top, I can try to

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Speaker 1: balance this out with an over or two. This is

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Speaker 1: my second one of the show. Naked Nate amens from

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Speaker 1: Tennessee against Iowa State over twenty and a half for

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Speaker 1: his points and rebounds. Let's start with just the narrative

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Speaker 1: the postgame press conference when you listen into Rick Barnes,

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Speaker 1: he was kind of making this weird cross sports analogy

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Speaker 1: where you're saying that he likes old school sports, he'd

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Speaker 1: run a single wing kind of offense if he was

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Speaker 1: the Tennessee coach. But at the very end of that quote,

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Speaker 1: he got into how it relates to how he basically

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Speaker 1: structures his team and the plays that he's calling, and

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Speaker 1: he said, I believe playing inside out. I still believe

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Speaker 1: there's great value in putting a team in foul trouble

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Speaker 1: and getting their best players to the bench. By doing that,

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Speaker 1: that reads to me like ament is going to get

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Speaker 1: fed in this game. Then you factor in there's likely

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Speaker 1: that Jefferson's not going to go for the Cyclones, which

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Speaker 1: means that we get Blake Buchanan, who struggles with fouls

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Speaker 1: in their front court, Mom Chilovich, who can absolutely out

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Speaker 1: muscle on the offensive and defensive Glass or Plata who

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Speaker 1: also struggles with fouls. So the drop off from Jefferson

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Speaker 1: to these guys, and I understand that Iowa State is

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Speaker 1: going to run doubles at times to Amen's I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily think that this is going to be a game

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Speaker 1: where he's going to go for thirty and fifteen, but

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Speaker 1: sitting at twenty and a half, I think this number

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Speaker 1: is too low for a player that is super skilled

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Speaker 1: at so many things. But also getting to the line,

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Speaker 1: he's rated eight plus in scoring volume by Evan Mia,

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Speaker 1: which puts him in the ninety ninth percent style and

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Speaker 1: a big part of that is being able to draw fouls.

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Speaker 1: I think in a competitive game where he plays his

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Speaker 1: normal allotment of minutes, it's absolutely within the realm of

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Speaker 1: possibility he's going to take between ten and fifteen shots,

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Speaker 1: and you may be asking yourself, like, why is this

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Speaker 1: number so low if you have all these factors going

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Speaker 1: in your favor. That Miami of Ohio stat line, I

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Speaker 1: think threw off and skews his stats a little bit.

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Speaker 1: They came out so hot in that game in the

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Speaker 1: first ten minutes and we're running away from it. They

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Speaker 1: didn't need to run plays for him, they didn't need

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Speaker 1: to keep him on the floor. And because of that,

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Speaker 1: like some people may look at it and him going

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Speaker 1: so far below this combo that, oh, that's the trend line.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so I think this is a game

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Speaker 1: where they need him to be a star to be

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Speaker 1: able to spark the upset. I'll ask you, doctor Nick,

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Speaker 1: in terms of kind of throwing out a certain performance

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Speaker 1: or a statistical outliar, how often do you do it?

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Speaker 1: Do you feel like, you know you have to to

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Speaker 1: kind of hedge your bets a little bit and put

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Speaker 1: it into a cystical average where you know, as I said,

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Speaker 1: I was there in Philadelphia, I watched the game. They

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Speaker 1: didn't need them, they didn't pass them the ball. That's

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Speaker 1: not the aiment that I got to know well throughout

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Speaker 1: the SEC season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean obviously he was coming off that

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Speaker 2: injury as well, so it was kind of a situation

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Speaker 2: where it don't overwork him, you know, one of those things.

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Speaker 2: But he's now gotten extra rest and a few games

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Speaker 2: under his belt since he's come off those injuries, so

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Speaker 2: you kind of got to go with those season long

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Speaker 2: averages more so. And I think that's just one of

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Speaker 2: those spots where if you're going with his season long average, right,

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Speaker 2: we're projecting right around this, But a couple of those games,

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Speaker 2: like you said, we're coming off the injury, are actually

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Speaker 2: bringing down in a quote unquote those season long averages,

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Speaker 2: so you kind of dump those. We actually would show

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Speaker 2: some nice over value on this one as well. So

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Speaker 2: everything's always situational, right, you can always throw things under

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Speaker 2: We'll just look at all the averages, and we do.

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Speaker 2: That's what our average project is. But then you also

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Speaker 2: want to take into account every possible situation. And I

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Speaker 2: think if you know, kind of discount those games where

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Speaker 2: he was coming off of an injury and didn't plays

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Speaker 2: many minutes and didn't want to be they didn't want

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Speaker 2: to overuse him, things like that, then I think that's

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Speaker 2: where you know the value lies.

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Speaker 1: We know some of you may not be able to

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Speaker 1: bet directly on these props at your sportsbook in the

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Speaker 1: state that you currently reside. But this is where underdog

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Speaker 1: and prize picks come in handy. Want to sign up

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Speaker 1: for price picks, use code action for fifty dollars in

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus entries after you play your first

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Speaker 1: five dollars. Too long, didn't listen. I'm waving my arms here.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to give you an avenue to play these picks.

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00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,760
Speaker 1: Use code action at both Prize Picks and Underdog to

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00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 1: sign up to get the best offers for both of those.

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Speaker 1: All right, doctor Nick, back in here for you. We're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about thomaslov evisitch for the Illinois Fighting Alni,

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Speaker 1: going under six and a half on his rebounds, just

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Speaker 1: from the eye test. When I saw this, having watched

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Speaker 1: a lot of Illinois basketball this year, I thought it

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Speaker 1: was a little bit high. But you can walk through

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Speaker 1: the analytics and why you believe that to be true.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately, it looks like six and a half is gone,

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Speaker 2: but there is a lot of five and a half's

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Speaker 2: out there. And I don't have a lot of bullet

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Speaker 2: points on this because it's just too high. This number

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Speaker 2: is just too high. Our projection is pretty generous. Actually,

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Speaker 2: Sean and I we both do a little pass through

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Speaker 2: the minutes of each player. Sean had him projected for

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Speaker 2: twenty I bumped it up to twenty three just to

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Speaker 2: kind of be on the let's give him as many

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Speaker 2: rebounds as possible projection, and we still had him at

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Speaker 2: around four and a half, a little more than four

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Speaker 2: and a half. When I do the higher projection of

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Speaker 2: twenty three minutes, so four point seven rebounds versus a

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Speaker 2: five and a half projection, And again that four point

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Speaker 2: seven is an average, so the media will be a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower, like around four and a half. That's

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Speaker 2: a full rebound under the five and a half number.

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Speaker 2: If you got the six and a half number, well,

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Speaker 2: great job to you, hats off, But under five and

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Speaker 2: a half still fantas plastic value for Tomaslavvasich. And this

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Speaker 2: is just again one of those things kind of like

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Speaker 2: we talked about with Ament where the season long rates. Here,

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Speaker 2: there's nothing really to throw out with him. This is

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Speaker 2: just a spot where they're playing a tough team, a

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Speaker 2: team that plays slow, a very good rebounding team, and

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Speaker 2: he's split in minutes with his brother almost fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty so, and he's competing with his own teammates for rebounds.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's competing with Stayakovic, he's competing with his brother.

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Speaker 2: Usually they're not on the court at the same time,

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Speaker 2: but they a little bit. And then of course competing

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Speaker 2: with Houston for all those rebounds as well. That's just

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Speaker 2: a lot of great rebounders on both teams. That's why

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Speaker 2: our projections around four and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, John, let's talk about Kingston Flemings, one of

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Speaker 1: the best freshmen in the entire country. The point guard.

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Speaker 1: He's the straw that stirs the drink for the Koop's offense.

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Speaker 1: But defensively in this matchup between Houston and Illinois, he's

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Speaker 1: going to be running around on the perimeter trying to

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Speaker 1: close out on shooters, and the likelihood of him being

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Speaker 1: in the lane for when any of these balls at

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Speaker 1: the rim in the first place seems pretty low. So

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Speaker 1: I was to see is total sitting at four and

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Speaker 1: a half on the boards.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so yeah, I'm gonna go with Kingston Flemings

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Speaker 3: under four and a half boards at minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 3: If L. J. Cryer was still there, you better believe

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Speaker 3: I'd be all over his under two and a half

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Speaker 3: rebounds in this spot. That was my wagon last year.

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Speaker 3: But love this rebound prop because you know, Illinois plays

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Speaker 3: at a slow pace similar to Iowa. That's gonna you know,

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Speaker 3: lower the overall possessions. They're an excellent shooting team and

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Speaker 3: one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They

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Speaker 3: have the third highest offensive rebounding rate and they're the

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Speaker 3: tallest team in the country too, So this is you know,

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Speaker 3: give me a tough number for Flemings to clear. And

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Speaker 3: like you said, like if he's around the perimeter, he's

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Speaker 3: gonna need, you know, a three point attempt to bounce

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Speaker 3: directly to him because he has a bunch of tall

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Speaker 3: guys between him and the basket. So yeah, we're projecting

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Speaker 3: a full rebound lower and you know the lower you

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Speaker 3: get in these you know, the four and a half

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Speaker 3: rebound range, one rebound's worth way more. So this is

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Speaker 3: my favorite prop of the opening of the Thursday slate.

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Speaker 3: So give me Flemings under four and a half boards

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Speaker 3: at minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: All right, before we wrap the show, I talked a

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Speaker 1: little trash on MLB splitting up their opening day. We

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Speaker 1: got a game tonight, obviously, what's your favorite prop there?

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Speaker 3: Sew Well, it's I have Cody Bellinger to get a

395
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Speaker 3: triple at forty seven to one. It's down eighteen to one.

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Speaker 3: Wouldn't take it there, But I just love the angle

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Speaker 3: because there's literally a spot at Oracle Park called Triples Alley,

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Speaker 3: so I'm hoping he hits it there. Joh Hu Lee's

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Speaker 3: playing right field for the first time for the Giant,

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Speaker 3: So maybe it takes a weird carem and you know

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Speaker 3: Belger can turn a double in a triple, but I

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Speaker 3: will be ecstatic if that hits the night.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back next week for a full breakdown from

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Speaker 1: a props perspective for the final four. There's also going

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Speaker 1: to be props coming through from all three of us

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app over the next twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours as we get into Friday, Saturday Sunday games. So

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Speaker 1: having the app is step one, but having Action pro

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Speaker 1: is really the critical one to grab those numbers at

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Speaker 1: the best prices because as we mentioned, these prop lines

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Speaker 1: move very fast, and we have a pair of morganovers

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Speaker 1: here on the show. Best of luck with all your bets.

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Speaker 1: As always, we'll see at the window. Action Network reminds

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Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

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Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

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Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler