1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,120 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: Joe Piezapia, and today we're going to take a look 3 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: at the wildcard games in the NFL this coming weekend. 4 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,040 Speaker 1: We've got games on Sunday, We've got games on Monday. 5 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: We've got fun for you right here on the show. 6 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman joins me along with Pat Fitzpors to break 7 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: down all the games, all the line movement, all the fun. 8 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: We've got some in division matchups to some rivalries. That's 9 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: always a good time. Teams that don't like each other. 10 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: Luckily we all love each other here, so that is 11 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: not a problem. But who knows, by the end of 12 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,159 Speaker 1: the show, things could get a little rough with some 13 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: different takes. I can only hope. So let's talk about 14 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: some of the games. Let's jump right in, and let's 15 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: start with the Buffalo Bills hosting the Miami Dolphins. Here, 16 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: this one opened up a ten and a half, it's 17 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: moved to thirteen. Some live movement in a few of 18 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,200 Speaker 1: these games we're going to talk about. Let's start here 19 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: with this though. Fits when you see this one move 20 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: here and you see that we're talking about a team 21 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: with Josh Allen, MVP candidate. And now on the other 22 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: side of this football game, we don't have to We 23 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: don't have Teddy Ridgewater, we have Skyler Thompson, a third 24 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: string quarterback playing. It's no mistake that this number is growing. 25 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 1: Also defensively speaking, two very different teams, one that likes 26 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 1: to play a lot of zone, one that does not 27 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: like to twist the quarterback. And then Miami who plays 28 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: fast and lose, who likes to come and bring that pressure. 29 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: But last time that backfight on them with Josh Allen, 30 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: who can get out of the pocket and make big, 31 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: huge plays that really change the momentum of game. So 32 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: all that being said, could this number grow even more 33 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: as we get closer to the game on Sunday. 34 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 2: I think it could, Joe, because it seems like anything 35 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 2: under two touchdowns is a bargain if you're interested in 36 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 2: betting the bells here, And you know, I just I 37 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 2: don't like to just blindly slap money down on the favorites. 38 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 2: But considering that it is a third stringer, considering that 39 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 2: Miami is coming into this one, you know on a 40 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: down things have not gone well for them down scratch. 41 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: I like how you really tried your best to sugarcoat 42 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: it and keep it very PC here for a. 43 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I was maybe in something else to say mine, 44 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: but yeah, they have won one of their last six games, 45 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 2: and that wasn't an unsightly Week eighteen victory over the 46 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 2: Jets in order to limp into the playoffs. So yeah, Like, 47 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 2: and we know we're gonna get cold weather in Buffalo. 48 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: We're not going to get the threat of a blizzard 49 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 2: like we had the last time the Dolphins visited Buffalo, 50 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 2: although that blizzard never really transpired. But we are going 51 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 2: to get cold weather, and you've got a warm weather 52 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 2: team going up to Buffalo, So I mean, I think 53 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: you have to that home field advantage is going to 54 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 2: be significant here. You know, the Buffalo crowd's going to 55 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 2: be fired up for this one, and you know they've 56 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 2: they've still got some of the. 57 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 3: Damar Hamlin vibes going there. 58 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: So like, I don't think thirteen is enough and I've 59 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: already taken the bills, all. 60 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: Right, Freeman, let's start with you with the thirteen here. 61 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 1: It's going to be thirty one degrees and Sonny in 62 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 1: Buffalo from what I'm seeing, but it's still a home 63 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 1: field advantage regardless. I mean, it's going to be colder, 64 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: it's going to be emotional. Another environment too, where Pat said, 65 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: perhaps some you know, continued hangover from some of that 66 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: pure raw emotion that we saw last Sunday. But again 67 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: sometimes that can call seems to come out flat as well, 68 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: trying to continuously go through these emotional states. But it 69 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: does feel like Buffalo should dominate this game. Is the 70 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 1: or a point where this number grows too much where 71 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: you start to look on the other side. 72 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 4: Though, fourteen and a half is I think where I 73 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 4: start to think about the Dolphins. But like I've already 74 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 4: bet the Bills. I bet it early, you know, shout 75 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 4: out me. But no, I just I didn't think that 76 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 4: there was a great chance of to a plane. I 77 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 4: thought it would be Teddy. And when Teddy was playing, 78 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 4: or when I had him projected to play, I thought that, 79 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 4: you know, the right number would probably be you know, 80 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 4: nine and a half, like on the low end, but 81 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 4: maybe more like ten and a half. And then now 82 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 4: that you know Tua is definitely out, it looks very 83 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 4: likely that it won't be Teddy Butt instead will be 84 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 4: the rookie third string er it's Guy Thompson. I have 85 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 4: this projected personally at thirteen point seventy five. We're even higher, 86 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 4: you know, in our official projections because I think there's 87 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 4: you know, a pre significant drop off from Tua to 88 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 4: Teddy and then a real drop off from Teddy to 89 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 4: Skyler Thompson, who it looks like one of the worst 90 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 4: quarterbacks in the league. And so thirteen and a half, 91 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 4: I'm kind of surprised that we're not already there. I 92 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 4: think thirteen is the number, you know, but I imagine that 93 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 4: this gets to fourteen. The one thing that does give 94 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 4: me pause is that we haven't seen the Bills or 95 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 4: really the Chiefs as the two teams to have large 96 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 4: spreads consistently this year. We haven't seen them really be 97 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 4: able to cover on a week to week basis. 98 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: And so. 99 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 4: I mean, I'm hesitant at thirteen and a half. Actually, 100 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 4: to bet it, I grabbed it at nine. I feel 101 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 4: great about it at that number, like thirteen fourteen, that's 102 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 4: the vicinity where I think it should be. But I mean, 103 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 4: I gotta say one thing that fits, you know, outlined 104 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 4: the case for going against the Dolphins. One thing also, 105 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 4: you know, not in their favor This is their fifth 106 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 4: game on the road out of the past seven games, so, like, 107 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 4: I mean, they are a home field advantage team and 108 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 4: they are just having like they're ragged from the road 109 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 4: at this point. So I think they're even more disadvantage 110 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 4: than they ordinarily would be if it were just a 111 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 4: typical road game for them. It's there's like a compounding 112 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: effect that teams have when they're on the road for 113 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 4: at this point, like literally months at a time with 114 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 4: just small breaks at home. 115 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: Forty three and a half is the number for this one, 116 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: So we assume that Buffalo's got a pretty high implied 117 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,799 Speaker 1: total here or somewhere on that thirty mark. That being said, 118 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 1: you mentioned Friedman that Thompson doesn't look like a very 119 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: good quarterback in your eyes. Can the Miami offense put 120 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: enough together to hit this over or is this kind 121 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: of a trap This over people thinking, oh it's gonna 122 00:05:57,800 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: be huge day for Buffalo. You gotta go the over. 123 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 1: But Miami has to do their part they hit that number. 124 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 1: I have this projected at forty three point four. You know, 125 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: as a site, doesn't sound like a whole lot of 126 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: value there, my. 127 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 4: Friend, No, as a site, we're I think almost exactly 128 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 4: at forty three point five. Like, I'm not betting the 129 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 4: total on this. 130 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: I'm fit seeing you co signing on avoiding the total 131 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: and just looking for buffalo and locking this number before 132 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: we see it grow any more in the next twenty 133 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 1: four hours. 134 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: One hundred percent co signing no interest whatsoever in playing 135 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 2: the total here. If you forced me to take one 136 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 2: side of the total, I'd probably go under, just because 137 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 2: I'm so skeptical about Miami's chances of generating offense in this. 138 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 2: But they do have Tyreek Hill and Jalen watloo concern. 139 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 2: You know, a short pass into an explosive play, you know, 140 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 2: that's the best chance I think of this getting over 141 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 2: is that we see maybe a couple explosive plays from 142 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: the Miami receivers. But otherwise I don't think Miami is 143 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 2: going to do their part to get us there. 144 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 1: I would just follow up on that. 145 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 4: I absolutely do not think Miami does it's part to 146 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 4: get us there. Tyreek is dealing with an injury, Jalen 147 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 4: Waddle has been hobbled for most of the season, and 148 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 4: Tron Armstead. They're left tackle who might be just in 149 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 4: general outside of Tyreek Hill, like the best overall player 150 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 4: on the team or one of the best players on 151 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 4: the team. He has four different injury designations to peck, knee, 152 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 4: and hip. Like, this guy's entire body is just ravaged 153 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 4: at this point, and he didn't practice on Wednesday, he 154 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 4: didn't play in Week eighteen. There's no guarantee he plays 155 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 4: this week. So you can have a rookie third string 156 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 4: quarterback without his left tackle and with hobbled wide receivers 157 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 4: out there, Like, I don't have faith in the Dolphins 158 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 4: to do their part to get this total to the over. 159 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just gonna say, talking me into the 160 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 2: under here now all of a sudden, I'm the. 161 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: Honest bits I was leaning that way as well, And 162 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: then that conversation else, well, it's a thirty six percent 163 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,119 Speaker 1: of people are in the under. So clearly, like people 164 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: are just looking at the other side of this and 165 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: not looking enough between the quarterback play and the other 166 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: injuries they are dealing with. And you said to yourself, 167 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: it's they're limping literally into the playoffs here. This is 168 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: not a good look necessarily for the Miami Dolphins. So 169 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: if you're irresponsible with your money. By the way, Dolphins 170 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: on the money line plus five to seventy five if 171 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: you want to be irresponsible, But I don't recommend that. 172 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: I do recommend getting some popcorn ready and watching the 173 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: Giants in Minnesota last two times. Last time I should say, 174 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: these two teams met, it was a heck of a game. 175 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: Over on the Christmas Eve, I was making lasagna watching 176 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: this game at the same time. I could not believe 177 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: the sixty one yard field goal all this stuff. Now 178 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: here's the thing. Minnesota committed eighty eight penalties for just 179 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 1: six hundred and eight nine yards in regular season. That's 180 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 1: according to NFL penalties dot Com. Their opponents commited one 181 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: hundred and eleven penalties for nine hundred and twenty six. 182 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: That means that there's the highest differential in all the 183 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: NFL between those two teams, which is interesting between the 184 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: opponents and the Minnesota Vikings. So really this is about 185 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: the Vikings limiting their mistakes and if they can continue 186 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: to do that, hopefully good things happened for them. On 187 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: the flip side, the Giants are team that's going to 188 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: very heavily on the short of passing, sometimes too heavily, 189 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: but again that's kind of how they're built. We've seen 190 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: Richie James Hodgens and Darius Slayton kind of emerge here 191 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,559 Speaker 1: with some sort of passing game and Daniel Jones through 192 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: the ball a fair amount here. Last time these two 193 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: teams matched up and Sekwon Barkley obviously managed to the 194 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: finish line. He will be active in this game. As 195 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: we know, we are starting with this number at three. 196 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: We are still at three. That's where we're at. Forty 197 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: seven and a half is the over under, and then 198 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: the Giants on the money line is plus one. Twenty 199 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: five fits. When you're taking a look at this game here, 200 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: where do you see the value and do you think 201 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: that the Giants have an upset in them? 202 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 3: I do think the Giants might have an upset in 203 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 3: them here. 204 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 2: And I mean we know that Minnesota has not been 205 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: as good as their record all year, and based on 206 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: you know, a Pythagorean approach to it, the Vikings are 207 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 2: like an eight to nine team. Basically, they're you know, 208 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 2: much worse than their record. So we saw them play 209 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: close the last time they played in Minnesota. It took 210 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 2: that long field goal that you refer to, Joe. We 211 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: know about the Vikings tortured playoff history. We know about 212 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins, although I guess this game is not a 213 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 2: night game, so maybe that's an optimistic sign if you're 214 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 2: a Vikings fan. 215 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 3: But we know Kirk Cousins hasn't. 216 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 2: Always played great under the bright, cleague lights of you know, 217 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 2: standalone nationally televised games. So I'm very skeptical of the 218 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 2: Vikings here. I like the points. The money line. You 219 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 2: could talk me into also, but I think I just 220 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,079 Speaker 2: see this one being close all the way. 221 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 3: I'd be really surprised. 222 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 2: If we don't get an entertaining game that comes down 223 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 2: to the final five minutes or so. 224 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: And I've seen even more some spots too. You can 225 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: get plus one forty over at bettingpros dot com. I 226 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: see on that money line, so that consensus is moving 227 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 1: up as well, and that number forty eight in some spots, 228 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: I'm still over even on the forty eight. To me, 229 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 1: that's the most appealing spot here. We've seen, you know, 230 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 1: the Giant secondary struggle at times. Howkinson have an enormous 231 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: game against the Giants last few times these teams met, 232 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: that's for sure. They have all kinds of trouble stopping 233 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: anything that he wanted to do. kJ Osborne's kind of 234 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 1: emerged lately. Jefferson, we know all kind of weapon his 235 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: he is. We see Dalvin Cook being heavy heavily used 236 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: in this game too. And on the flip side of 237 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: this one, we imagine that the Giants put up points 238 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: last time against the beneficoa Vikings defense. Why can't they 239 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: do it again? Friedman? Is the over the way to 240 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 1: approach this game? 241 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 4: Maybe you know there is a trend about playoff games 242 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 4: that are played indoors tending to go over. 243 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: But I don't know. 244 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 4: I have this slightly projected to the under. I believe 245 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 4: I'm around forty seven and a half, so I don't 246 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 4: I don't really see any value there. And if I 247 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 4: had to make a bet on the side, it would 248 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 4: be the Giants, But you know they have okay. On 249 00:11:55,520 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 4: the one hand, they are playing their fourth game to 250 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 4: five on the road, so a negative road situation. On 251 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 4: the other hand, Daniel Jones has historically been really good 252 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 4: on the road, like better than your typical quarterback on 253 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 4: the road and especially strong as a road dog, so 254 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 4: like this is kind of the Daniel Jones spot. And 255 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 4: I think, as you mentioned, we've seen this in the 256 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 4: market sit exactly at three and there's been no movement 257 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 4: on it, like that is the right number. The most 258 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 4: likely outcome is Vikings win this game by three. I 259 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 4: haven't projected at two and a half, so if I 260 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 4: had to bet on it, I would be betting on 261 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 4: the Giants. But if this number moved to two and 262 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 4: a half, they would be taking a lot of money 263 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 4: and it would. 264 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: Push back to three. 265 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 4: If this moved to three and a half, they would 266 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 4: be taking a lot of money on the Giants and 267 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 4: it would push down to three. So like this number, 268 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 4: I think just stays at three, And if you like 269 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 4: the Giants, then I think you probably bet it on 270 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 4: the money line because I think three is the most 271 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 4: likely outcome in this game, one way or another. 272 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: And we know historic in this round of the playoffs, 273 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: we often see more than one upset quote unquote, so 274 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 1: I think we all have to look for that too, 275 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: because if you're looking at some of the games away 276 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 1: they're laid out, you know some of these things are 277 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: not going to go necessarily the way Vegas has them planned, 278 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: because that's what the NFL teaches us every single year. 279 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: In this round of the playoffs, it's a little different 280 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: as we move on, especially some of the juggernaut teams. 281 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: Obviously the Bills big favorites, the Bengals big favorites in 282 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: their game two. Understandably, why let's move on to that 283 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: game too, because scrowing less and less likely we're going 284 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: to see Lamar Jackson in this game for the Baltimore Ravens, 285 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,959 Speaker 1: So we shall see what quarterback they come up with. 286 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: But right now, Baltimore started at a six point underdog. 287 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: Now they moved to nine and a half. They're going 288 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,319 Speaker 1: to travel to Cincinnati, so nine and a half is 289 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: the number here fits We're forty four for the over 290 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: under and Baltimore plus two hundred on the money line, 291 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: although that is probably going to move significantly. I think 292 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 1: as we get more and more now we see the 293 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: news of Lamar Jackson going in that other direction, Pat, 294 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: do you think this is another number just like that 295 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: first when we talked about that could continue to grow 296 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: as more money comes in on this game, And if so, 297 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: do we lock this in now? 298 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 2: I think it probably goes up if we get definitive 299 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 2: word that Jackson's not going to be able to return 300 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,559 Speaker 2: from this sprain PCL, So. 301 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 3: I think you're kind of making an early. 302 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 2: Wager based on how you anticipate that the Jackson thing 303 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 2: coming out. I mean, there's value if we think there's 304 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 2: a chance still that Lamar Jackson could be back for 305 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 2: this game, I believe, because you know, if he doesn't 306 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: come back, there's just no way the Ravens can put 307 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 2: up points and match this Bengals offense, even though their 308 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 2: defenses is good and gives them a chance to at least, 309 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 2: you know, keep the Bengals to something, you know, maybe 310 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 2: around twenty points, twenty three points, but if they don't 311 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 2: have Lamar Jackson, I just don't think they can match 312 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: firepower with Cincinnati. And you know, I think the Bengals 313 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 2: are of value at their currents, at the current line. 314 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: But you know, it really all depends on this Jackson news. 315 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 2: And it's kind of bothersome that is still so vague 316 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 2: at this point, just a couple of days away from 317 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 2: this game. 318 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly a feeling though, like it's going to 319 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: trend in the director of and not playing from missing 320 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: all the practices. The money line, by the way, has 321 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: grown to plus three sixty I see since yesterday when 322 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: we put the show together, so that continues to kind 323 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: of tell you where the market's at. Forty and a 324 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: half is the over under Friedman. Fitz mentioned that defense 325 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: of the Baltimore Evens, which has been very good, no 326 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: doubt about the roquant Smith addition a big part of that. 327 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: They were ranked twentieth in points per game allowed and 328 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: twenty fourth in yards per game allowed, and they ranked 329 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 1: second in both categories since Roquan Smith came over, allowing 330 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: just fourteen point seven points per game. So that's a 331 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: huge shift They paid the man because certainly he's had 332 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: a huge impact on that defense. So when I'm looking 333 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: at this game, to me, my immediately go to that under. 334 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: That's where I'm going to because I'm just concerned between 335 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: the quality defensive Ravens put out there and between what 336 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: you're seeing potentially of the Bengals at times, you know, 337 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: having some moments of struggle against that Baltimore Ravens defense. 338 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: Perhaps with that coupled with the Baltimore Ravens offense being 339 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: lackluster at best, why wouldness be an under? I get it. 340 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 4: We I think we had the same conversation last week, 341 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 4: or a very similar conversation, and I do remember fits 342 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 4: this number was forty. I remember Fits making a I 343 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 4: want to say impassioned, but you know, a typical Fits 344 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 4: case for why this was going to be a rock fight, 345 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 4: and I bought it, you know, And I'm not saying 346 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 4: that was the wrong call, but the over ended up 347 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 4: hitting in that spot, not by much. 348 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 2: You know. 349 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 4: It was twenty seven to sixteen, you know, so it 350 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 4: wasn't a high scoring game by any means, but it wasn't, 351 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 4: you know, like a low scoring thirteen to ten type 352 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 4: of affair. And I would say that the Ravens if 353 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 4: I'm making the case for the over, which I have 354 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 4: this projected right around the mark, so I'm not betting 355 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 4: it either way. But if I'm making a case for 356 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 4: the over, it's that the Ravens will probably be better 357 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 4: on offense this week than they were last week. And 358 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 4: let's assume that maybe Tyler Huntley ends up playing. He 359 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 4: did practice limitedly on Wednesday, so like he's at least 360 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 4: taking a step in the right direction, so there's a 361 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 4: chance he plays. I'm assuming Lamar doesn't play at all. 362 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 4: But even if Huntley doesn't play, aj Non Anthony Brown, 363 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 4: he can't be as bad this week as he was 364 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 4: last week. Like now, like maybe he can be, but 365 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 4: the team would at least have a sense of Okay, 366 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 4: last week, we tried this thing against this defense and 367 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 4: it didn't work. What if we tweak it in some way? 368 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 4: So I would assume that the Ravens would be better 369 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 4: on offense, And I would also assume that the Bengals 370 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 4: would be better on offense, because I don't think they 371 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 4: were actually giving it one hundred percent for the entirety 372 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 4: of the game. But you know, playoffs, I think it's 373 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 4: a little bit different. That said, it's an outdoor game 374 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 4: in January between divisional opponents in their third game. 375 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: Just played each other. Yeah, it's a third game, but 376 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: they've literally just played each other last week two, which 377 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 1: is also odd. I mean, it's one thing when you 378 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:17,640 Speaker 1: well you're going to play each other the third time 379 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 1: in the season. That happens in the playoffs. We've seen 380 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: that plenty of times of the years. It's very odd 381 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: that you play them back to back weeks. So fits 382 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: does that matter at all to you? This familiarity and 383 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: the contempt between these two teams here that they're going 384 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 1: to play each other again after just playing each other Sunday, 385 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 1: and maybe Friedman's right, Like both were kind of guarded 386 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: me saying, hey, look, we've got a lot more to 387 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: play for here, we got playoffs coming up. We're not 388 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 1: gonna run JK. Dobbins out there. We're gonna baby guys, 389 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: We're gonna take some guys off the field, not going 390 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: to press it now. Everyone's going to put their pedal 391 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 1: to the medal. But again, that weirdness of having just 392 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: played each other, does that enter into how you look 393 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: at this game at all? 394 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 3: It doesn't. I've always kind of struggled with how to 395 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 3: do that. If there is the. 396 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 2: Weird circumstance, it's where a team plays a playoff game 397 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,959 Speaker 2: against an opponent they just faced. And whether that, you know, 398 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 2: maybe is sort of an equalizer or whether you know, 399 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 2: I don't know. It's a good question, and I don't 400 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 2: know how to answer it, Joe, like I, but it was. 401 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 2: I think we're going to see a different kind of game, 402 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 2: as Friedman kind of talked about, like, I don't think 403 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: it's just going to be a carbon copy of last week. 404 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:25,919 Speaker 2: And I do kind of agree with Friedman that the 405 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 2: Bengals maybe we're not giving it the full gas last 406 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 2: week against the Ravens. 407 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 3: It had that sort of vibe to it. 408 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 4: And one more thing here while we've been recording, so 409 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 4: this morning, when I was making updates to our projections, 410 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 4: this number was eight and a half. When we started recording, 411 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 4: it was nine and a half, and it's now ten 412 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,919 Speaker 4: and half. Of the books across the market like this. 413 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 4: This is going to continue to move, and I do 414 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 4: think that it goes through ten when it's announced that 415 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson isn't playing, and so I think there's still 416 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 4: value on it now. 417 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: I would be betting this now if you like the 418 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: Bengals now. The first time these two teams met earlier 419 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 1: in the year, October ninth, we're in the season, I 420 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: should say, since we're in a new year. Nineteen seventeen 421 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 1: was the game that was the score. Do you think 422 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: we're more likely to see like again, we're kind you're 423 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: kind of seem like you're moving towards the place of, hey, 424 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 1: this is going to be more like a game where 425 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: everything opens up as opposed to another nineteen seventeen contest. 426 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: I feel it's going to be more like a nineteen 427 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,719 Speaker 1: seventeen kind of ugly contest. And Joe Burrow gets it 428 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: done regardless of the situation. I think that Baltimore defense 429 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: is the thing we really haven't given enough credit to 430 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 1: of how good they've been. Fits. Where do you stand? 431 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: Because you seem to be also in a place where 432 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,640 Speaker 1: you're figuring that out. Freedoman seems like he's pushing more 433 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 1: towards the Hey, it's going to be more scoring than 434 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 1: you realize. I'm kind of negative Nancy over here saying 435 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 1: I think this is going to be more of an 436 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: ugly football game in that sense because of the familiarity 437 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: and because they know their tenant season, because they know 438 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: what they want to do with the football, And I 439 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 1: think that Baltimore Ravens d is just really really solid. 440 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: Fourteen points per game, that's no joke. Fits. 441 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 3: I'm with you, Nancy as much. 442 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: Right as we might season call me Nancy. 443 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 2: As much as I have a healthy respect for the 444 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 2: Bengals offense and just you know, incredible respect for Joe Burrow, 445 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: I do think this is going to be quite possibly 446 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 2: a typical AFC North. 447 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 3: Rock fight again in the playoffs. And you know, I have. 448 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 2: The same sort of healthy respect that you have for 449 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 2: that Ravens defense show, like that is a tough unit. 450 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,879 Speaker 2: I don't think the Bengals have that sort of explosive 451 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 2: thirty or thirty five point game this week. I think 452 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 2: it's more like in the low twenties. And you know, 453 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 2: I very much doubt that the Ravens can even sniff 454 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 2: twenty points without Lamar Jackson a quarterback. 455 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 1: All Right, the last game here as we move on, 456 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: This is the Monday Night contest, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 457 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: hosting the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys twelve and five. Tampa, 458 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 1: though won THEIRS, so at eight to nine, they're hosting 459 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: a playoff game. But they got Tom Brady and I 460 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: don't know why. I just can't shake this, Friedman, and 461 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I know you're a cowboy guy, 462 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: so this is a loaded question for you. But you 463 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: will seem to have a very healthy disdain for your 464 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: own team, which I respect. I think that's great. I 465 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: think that's something you have to know as a fan 466 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: sometimes the deficits of your own team and you are 467 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: much more business than personal obviously. Always here, this feels 468 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: like the wrong team is favored to me. I can't 469 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: tell you why, because Tampa has struggled all year. They've 470 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 1: been underwhelming in every spot every game where they should 471 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: have gotten right, they never did. It just feels like 472 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 1: time and time again, it just never works right. But 473 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 1: then again, this is a whole fresh start in new season. 474 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: This is all they've been trying to scratch and claw 475 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: their way to. You didn't see any four net last week. 476 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: You saw everybody just kind of pulling back at this 477 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 1: point for this older team that a little bit of 478 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 1: rest is very important. Do you think like I do. 479 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: Then you're looking at this number of the two and 480 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 1: a half here on the Dallas side, they are favored 481 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: that that is incorrect. 482 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 4: So this number opened to three and then pretty quickly 483 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 4: got that down to two and a half and it 484 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 4: hasn't approached three since, but it also hasn't moved down. 485 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 4: I have this projected at two and a half, but 486 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 4: that's you know, that's a projection. Actually no, sorry, I've 487 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 4: projected two point seventy five. But it doesn't take into account, 488 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 4: you know, like the actual nuances of the matchup. That's 489 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 4: just a numbers based projection. 490 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 1: I think the. 491 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,640 Speaker 4: Nuances of this matchup put me more on Tampa Bay. 492 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 4: I haven't bet it, but maybe this is because I'm 493 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 4: a Cowboys fan, Like I do think that the Cowboys 494 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 4: easily could lose this game. Like I see the path 495 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 4: for how it happens. The Buccaneers are getting healthier. There's 496 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 4: a chance that they get their center Ryan Jensen back, 497 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 4: and that's a very big addition. You know, Tristan Wurf's 498 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 4: it looks like he's going to be healthy for this game, 499 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 4: and so they will be about as healthy as they 500 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 4: can be. 501 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: On the offensive line. 502 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 4: The Cowboys, especially with their secondary injured, have not been 503 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 4: the defensive force over the past six weeks that they 504 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 4: were in the first half of the season. Uh, they 505 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 4: can be beat deep. And you know, we saw Tom 506 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:19,959 Speaker 4: Brady in Week seventeen. I'm not gonna put like too 507 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 4: much weight on what happened in one game, especially because 508 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,120 Speaker 4: there were some busted coverages there, but like we did 509 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 4: see him connect with Mike Evans for multiple long touchdowns. 510 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,160 Speaker 4: You know, they've had that connection all season that it's 511 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 4: just like misfired here and there where it's like, Okay, 512 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 4: a long seventy yard touchdown that's dropped by Mike Evans, right, 513 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 4: But the Cowboys are vulnerable to those long plays, and 514 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 4: like I can just see how it happens, and and 515 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 4: Dak he you know, I think he leads the league 516 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 4: in interceptions, like even with the miss, which is kind 517 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 4: of incredible. But at the same time, you know, like 518 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 4: he is a good quarterback, like Matt Stafford led the 519 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 4: league and interceptions last year and then in the playoffs 520 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 4: he was awesome. So like the Cowboys on offense, they 521 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 4: have the opportunity to turn it on, but man like, 522 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 4: they are predicated on the running game, you know, for 523 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 4: better or worse, and often for worse, like they do 524 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 4: want to establish the run a little bit to set 525 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 4: up the pass, and they are not going to be 526 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,359 Speaker 4: able to do that. In my opinion. They are not 527 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 4: going to be able to do it all that well 528 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 4: against a defensive front, which is finally healthy for the Buccaneers, 529 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 4: especially on the interior with Videvea and a Keem Hicks. 530 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 4: So I'm kind of skeptical of the Cowboys actually being 531 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 4: able to do Cowboys type of. 532 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 1: Things in this game. So I'm not betting it. 533 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 4: But if I had to bet it, even though my 534 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 4: projection tilts slightly towards towards the Cowboys, I would probably 535 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 4: be betting on the Bucks. 536 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 1: You make a good point too, about the defense of 537 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: the Cowboys not looking the same as the did earlier 538 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: in the season. The first five weeks of this and 539 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 1: they didn't let any opponent get over twenty points. That 540 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 1: has not been the case in the second half. It's 541 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: only been once actually in the last five weeks that 542 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: they let opponent not get over that number, and it 543 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: was against the Tennessee Titans. So we really can't take 544 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 1: that very seriously either, because they're not one for offense 545 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,640 Speaker 1: these days. But Fits, I want to get your take 546 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: on this, because you know, the Bucks have been this 547 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 1: team that's kind of scratched and clawed their way out 548 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: to these ugly victories. They've trailed by a combined sixty 549 00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 1: six to twenty two score in the fourth quarter against 550 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 1: opponents over these last few games here. It's just unbelievable 551 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: how they have, by all intents and purposes, just barely 552 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 1: by just give their teeth, stayed relevant, hung onto this division. 553 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,360 Speaker 1: With such lesser competition in this division, they should have dominated. 554 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: When you look at the people on the field for 555 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: this team and you look at the talent on the 556 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 1: Cowboys roster, whole different story. Talent for days younger team 557 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 1: faster team by all accounts, but there's just something about 558 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 1: this game I can't get around. And Freeman mentioned the 559 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 1: turnovers are a problem. You turn over the ball in 560 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 1: playoff games. That is a huge issue here, and dak 561 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: is indeed leading that league with fifteen interceptions, as Friedman mentioned, 562 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: So what do you make out of just the number 563 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 1: on this game before you even get to the over under. 564 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, you guys lay out a pretty credible case for 565 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys skepticism, and to that I will even add 566 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 2: as a Green Bay Packers fanily, you guys didn't even 567 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 2: mention Mike McCarthy. You guys laid up that case and 568 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 2: did not even mention Mike McCarthy. So you know, I'll 569 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 2: even add that to the mix. But that said, my 570 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 2: skepticism of the Buccaneers I think outweighs my skepticism of 571 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 2: the Cowboys. Like Friedman mentioned the Panthers game in Week seventeen, 572 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,360 Speaker 2: and that was a really interesting case and we finally 573 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,679 Speaker 2: did see the uh Buccaneers, who struggled to get anything 574 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 2: going with the deep passing game all year. I think 575 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 2: they've had like so few plays of longer than twenty yards, 576 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 2: like the lowest since Brady got to Tampa, and they took. 577 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 3: Advantage of j. C. 578 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 2: Horn not being there for the Panthers, and now they've 579 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 2: got you know, no Anthony Brown, Is anyone else banged 580 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 2: up in that Dallas secondary? 581 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 3: Friedman? Is there anyone are any other starters? 582 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, you're missing two starting cornerbacks Brown? 583 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 2: Okay, So yeah, I mean like that could be maybe 584 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 2: we see more of that where Evans hits on some 585 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 2: big plays and takes advantage of the reduced man power 586 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 2: in the Dallas secondary. But boy, I just I have 587 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 2: a hard time seeing this team that struggled, as you said, Joe, 588 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 2: in this NFC South that is such a weak division 589 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 2: and still struggle to put away the Panthers in that 590 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 2: Week seventeen game. I mean, they were game by the 591 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 2: skin of their teeth. And to me, like Dallas has 592 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 2: a lot going for It's uh like, I think they 593 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: have a lot of ways that they can win this game, 594 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 2: and I see more of a narrow path for the Buccaneers. 595 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 2: Like even if the Buccaneers get Ryan Jensen back, like, 596 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 2: they don't run the ball well. 597 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 3: They haven't run the ball well all year. 598 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: Don't run the ball period, forget well. 599 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 3: They don't even try, right they and they don't like 600 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 3: Brady or was. 601 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 1: The bottom of the league in attempts. You know, they 602 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,400 Speaker 1: throw the football all day long. And that's that's what 603 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 1: the I guess here's the point. If you're if you're 604 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 1: reinforcing the offensive line, are you in a spot here 605 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: where again Tom Brady, regular season, it doesn't matter. It's 606 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 1: about the playoffs. For Tom Brady. I know it's asking 607 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: a lot to say or to put on a team 608 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 1: they could just flip the switch and go. But if 609 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 1: anybody can, wouldn't it be this crew? 610 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know. 611 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 2: I mean, they don't even take many deep shots like 612 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 2: that's the thing. 613 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 3: It's their Their passing game is all just this quick. 614 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 2: Stuff and uh like that's a tough way to sustain offense. 615 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 2: And I think that's part of the reason we haven't 616 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 2: seen them, you know, be one of the better offensive 617 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 2: teams this year. It's just been this sort of weird 618 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 2: ball control passing attack that just sort of limits how 619 00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 2: many points they can put up. And I feel like 620 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 2: the Cowboys are going to put up points even though yes, 621 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 2: Tampa's got a terrific run defense, and maybe that negates 622 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 2: the strength that Dallas has with Pollard and Zeke and 623 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 2: that good offensive line. But unless Dak throws like three interceptions, 624 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 2: and it's kind of out of character that he's thrown 625 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 2: this many because he was, you know, he's been a 626 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 2: guy who's been pretty cautious with the ball for most 627 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 2: of his career. I wonder if that's kind of an anomaly. 628 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 2: And I wonder if all those turnovers are making Dallas 629 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 2: like look a little bit weaker than they actually are, 630 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like those turnovers have really 631 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 2: hurt Dallas down the stretch at times, and I just 632 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 2: feel like it's been sort of out of character for Dak. 633 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 2: And unless he, you know, gets really sloppy with the ball, 634 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, I think if Dallas keeps. 635 00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 1: With the ball too, if you if you're in the 636 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 1: red zone, you throw a pick, that ball goes the 637 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: other way. I mean that those kind those are backbreaking 638 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 1: moments in playoff games where the complete momentum turns. I'm 639 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: sticking true. You guys have made some really good cases 640 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: on either side. I'm sticking with the Bucks on the 641 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: money line because it just feels it feels wrong to 642 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 1: me and it's not because I'm a Tom Brady fan 643 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: or any of that. No, they've been awful. I've called 644 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 1: them out on all year. Plus one twenty in the 645 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 1: money line is a good number for two teams that, like, 646 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 1: one's very mistake prone, one can't get aunt of their 647 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 1: own way. Tampa's at home. Give me the team at 648 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: home in the playoffs on prime time where Tom Brady, 649 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: you know, might remember the good old days for at 650 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: least one game. The number of this game is forty 651 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 1: five and a half, freedman, any any thoughts on that 652 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 1: for you? This number of the forty five is this 653 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,480 Speaker 1: project right around where you have it. 654 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 4: I have it a forty five point one, so I'm 655 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 4: slightly on the under, and that's, you know, kind of 656 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 4: in line with where we have it projected as a site. 657 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 4: If I had to bet on the total, it would 658 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 4: be under. You know, these two teams, you know, nineteen 659 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 4: to three in Week one. Yeah, obviously that was a 660 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 4: long time ago. But it's not as if the Buccaneers 661 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 4: have done anything since then to show that they are 662 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 4: an overteam. They've been one of the best under teams 663 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 4: to bet on for the entirety of this season. In 664 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 4: a season where the under has almost always been the 665 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 4: sharp side each week. 666 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 1: So yeah, if I had to take a position, it 667 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 1: would be the under. You liking the under makes me 668 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 1: like the money line of the Bucks even more fits 669 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 1: your thoughts here on the over under number. 670 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 3: Leaning under. Also, I just we had that early. 671 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, granted it was a much earlier example, the week 672 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 2: one game of a very low scoring contest. I just 673 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,720 Speaker 2: don't think the Buccaneers offense is explosive enough to put 674 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 2: up a big number on the Cowboys. And I think 675 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 2: that Buccaneers run defense is good enough to kind of 676 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,600 Speaker 2: at least slow down one of the things that Dallas 677 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 2: does best, and that's run the ball. So what about you, Joe, 678 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 2: I mean, it sounds like you're envisioning, or at least 679 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 2: hearing in your head cannon fire from the Buccaneers. 680 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 1: This feels like a twenty seventeen kind of game to me, Like, 681 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: this feels like it's it's close seventeen. All you kick 682 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 1: a field goal with a couple seconds left. Bucks again, 683 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 1: by the skin of their chinny hit, oh, the hair 684 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: and their changing gin or the skin of their teeth. 685 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 1: I'm mixing my metaphors either way. I just don't believe 686 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 1: in the Cowboys going on the road and winning a 687 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 1: playoff game. McCarthy's a good reason. The Dak Prescott turnover issueser, 688 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 1: There's a lot of good reasons here. And the defense 689 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: has not been as strong, and that's why I keep 690 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 1: coming back. You know, we always say defense wins championships. 691 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 1: That's why I like the under in the Baltimore game 692 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,000 Speaker 1: so much, because I feel like that defense is really 693 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 1: really good and Roquan's been just a revelation there. I mean, 694 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 1: what he's been able to do. But this is one 695 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 1: where you know we're all going to be watching this game. 696 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 1: It's the last one of the week. I've got it 697 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 1: in a parlay as well. I bet it's separately and 698 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: in the parlay because I feel like if I get 699 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 1: those first two legs right, and then I get that 700 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 1: cash out potential and that third one, I could sit there. 701 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: If the Bucks get ahead, maybe I push my limit 702 00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 1: a little bit, let it ride a little longer, and 703 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 1: then halftime boom. Just cash out of it, take my 704 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: winnings and go home. These are the little inside things 705 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: embedding you can enjoy yourself, and you know I have 706 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,240 Speaker 1: the discipline to take my one hundred and fifty dollars 707 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 1: and walk away from two fifty. I have the discipline 708 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,959 Speaker 1: to do that. You got to have that sometimes. Any 709 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 1: other final thoughts on this game, Friedman, or anything else 710 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:18,759 Speaker 1: this weekend that you've got your eyes on from a 711 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 1: wagering perspective. I know you guys are gonna get too 712 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,880 Speaker 1: props later on, but today was about the game breakdowns. 713 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 1: Anything else from the game breakdown perspective from any of 714 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:26,800 Speaker 1: these four. 715 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think at this point of the 716 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 4: season we know these teams very well, and the biggest 717 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 4: edges that I think still are in the market I 718 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 4: have to do with the quarterback uncertainty of some of 719 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:45,040 Speaker 4: the teams, and that's Miami and Baltimore, and so I 720 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:46,960 Speaker 4: think those are the games where I still see the 721 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 4: most value for the other team in those matchups. 722 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, great point. The disparity between Joe Burrow and Josh 723 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 1: Allen and the other side of those games is stark, 724 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: to say the least, fits any parting shots here before 725 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 1: we call it a day on the wildcard weekend. 726 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,839 Speaker 2: I was going to echo that that the quarterback thing 727 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 2: is almost maybe not getting it's not being reflected as 728 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,359 Speaker 2: much as it should in those lines. And it's kind 729 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 2: of too bad because, like certainly with Lamar Jackson playing 730 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 2: Ravens Bengals is a much more interesting game, and you've 731 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 2: got the Ravens having absolutely a puncher's chance to go 732 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 2: into Cincinnati win that game, and like we saw a 733 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:33,879 Speaker 2: tremendous game in that the blizzard that never materialized. I mean, 734 00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 2: the Dolphins gave the Bills everything they could handle that night, 735 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,160 Speaker 2: and with Tua at quarterback, and I just don't think 736 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:40,840 Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to come and they fell short. 737 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 1: And I'm with you, I'm with you. I think they 738 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,640 Speaker 1: threw it all out there and falling short. I don't 739 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,719 Speaker 1: think they've been the same really since. You know, I 740 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:49,120 Speaker 1: know they lost a couple of games leading up to 741 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,399 Speaker 1: that too, but still, I think that was almost their 742 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, their prove it moment, and they didn't and 743 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,040 Speaker 1: they haven't been able to get on track since. And 744 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,239 Speaker 1: you mentioned the health before Friedman of that Dolphins team. 745 00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,560 Speaker 1: It's not good, is not good, so hope the games 746 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 1: will be good. So for more, you can always go 747 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: to bettingpros dot com check out a prop at cheat 748 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,680 Speaker 1: sheet where you have more coverage of all the props 749 00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,000 Speaker 1: later on in the week, so make sure you check 750 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,360 Speaker 1: that out as well. Enjoy the games, go, make your 751 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 1: wagers have some fun. What a great time to watch 752 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:16,440 Speaker 1: some playoff football. That'll do it for us, But the 753 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,799 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Pat Fitzmorris and 754 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,