WEBVTT - The Science of Coincidence 0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:05.800 Welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind from how Stuff 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:15.240 Works dot com. Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind. 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:17.599 My name is Robert Lamb, and I'm Joe McCormick. And 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:21.079 Robert and I are going to be unavailable to record 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.000 a regular podcast this week because we're both going to 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:28.880 be recovering from some rather strange cranial surgery that involves 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:33.040 the expansion of the mind. Uh, new sences, new vistas. 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:36.479 So we're gonna be going to a happy place. But 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:39.159 in the meantime, we thought we'd take you back to 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:42.120 an old favorite. Yeah, this is our episode on the 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:44.960 science of coincidence. It's it's one that we really enjoyed 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.960 putting together. I think it's definitely an evergreen episode that 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.320 tests us, you know, it stands the test of time. 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:53.680 I think I recorded this one before I was actually 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:56.320 a host on the show. I was doing a guest episode. 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:58.360 This is one of the first ones I ever Did's right, 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:00.880 that's right. Yeah, So it's it's a strong one and 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:03.320 if you've heard it before, then I think it's a 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:05.880 perfect one to re experience. And if you are a 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:08.200 newer listener to the show, then hey, listen to it 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:11.319 for the first time. So without further ado, let's jump 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:19.120 into the repeat. So I've got one for you. Tell 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:24.000 me if you've heard this one before. Lincoln and Kennedy. Yes, 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:26.640 you know this. I was first exposed to this in 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.039 middle school when a teacher of mine get gave us 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:30.720 a list of these like it was some kind of 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:34.240 really important fact we needed to learn. But yeah, how 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:38.640 about this. Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy, two American presidents. 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.240 Both were elected to Congress in the year forty six, 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.720 Lincoln in eighteen forty six, Kennedy in nineteen forty six. 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:49.720 Both were elected president in the year sixty, Lincoln in 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:53.760 eighteen sixty, Kennedy in nineteen sixty. Each of their last 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.960 names both contains seven letters. Uh. And then there's this 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.920 whole list of coincidences that keeps going. They were both 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:05.160 shot in the head, they were both assassinated by Southerners. 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:09.320 They were both succeeded by Southerners. Their vice presidents were Southerners. 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:15.840 Both vice presidents were named Johnson. What are the odds? Yeah, 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:19.080 I remember this being rolled out, perhaps in a history class, 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:21.880 and uh, you know that the list would start about 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.160 these coincidences, and I would kind of tune out after 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.119 the first one or two. Um, And I guess that 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.520 that kind of boils down to the type of people 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:31.720 in the world, like they're there are people out there 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:34.560 who just tune out after the first coincidence or two, 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:36.400 and then there are those who obsess about it and 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:40.000 see this as as something something really crucial and something 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:42.960 really telling about these two men, about the history of 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:47.079 this nation, et cetera. That might be the difference between us, Robert, 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.640 because I did not tune out. I was my mind 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:54.280 was blown to uh, to borrow from a popular phrase. Yeah, 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.320 I I sat there in my desk like, wow, what 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.799 are the odds? You know, must to be some kind 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:07.040 of ghost spirit controlling this. It just I was amazed 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.000 that there are two twin souls are basically the same 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:14.520 entity reincarnated and and and tracked hunted by the same 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:18.480 extra dimensional force. Yeah. Or there there was some sort 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.480 of like cosmic literature teacher trying to get me to 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:26.240 observe parallels between the meaning of these two men. Yeah, 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:28.720 it's another one of course that comes to mind is 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:31.960 the death of Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, two individuals who, 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:35.800 of course very interconnected in the history of the United 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:39.320 States as well. Sure, both instrumental drafting the Declaration of Independence, 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:43.680 which was signed to July four, seventy six. Both men 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:48.000 died on the same day, July four, eight twenty six, 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:51.720 exactly fifty years to the day after the document was ratified. 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:55.160 So that that you know that that kind of hits 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:56.560 you like. I like that one because that one's nice 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.160 and succinct. You know, what were the chances? You don't 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:01.960 need a list, it's right there. Yeah. I mean they 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:03.960 were they were good friends, so maybe there was you 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:07.440 could imagine some level of synchronicity about, you know, when 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.400 you're giving up and sort of handing it over to 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:14.680 the reaper. But but the dates are kind of compelling there. 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:16.760 It would be even crazier, though, if I found out 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.120 now that you played John Adams in a production of 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:23.160 seventeen seventy six. No, but I was in a production 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:25.960 of Seven Times. Here you go. I played Thomas Jefferson 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:27.880 in a been a production of seventeen seventy six. So 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.400 we're tied into it too. There's no escaping the black 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:35.240 hole of coincidence. Okay, I've got an even crazier coincidence. No, 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:37.680 it's probably not. This is kind of dumb, but why 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:43.000 do so many action heroes have the initials JB, James Bond, 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:48.000 Jason Bourne, Jack Bauer, Jack Burton my favorite? Well, I mean, 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:51.880 what are the chances? Actually, we have no idea, do we? Yeah? 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:54.239 I haven't read any I mean maybe there's some really 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:58.760 deep statistical study on this out there, but uh yeah, 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:01.200 maybe it is it that, on one hand, is just 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:04.080 possibly pure luck. And we only pick up right on 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.120 there there being a JB here, JB there, because we're 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.800 also not taking into account all the other j B 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:12.880 initials out there, like like does Jim being factor into this? 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:15.760 Probably not, and all of the action heroes that aren't 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:18.240 j B s. Yeah, And then to what extent is 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:21.200 it just completely almost subconscious? You know, because you have 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:24.000 an action hero and and by extension of action hero, 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.839 you think of mythological hero and the symbolic power of 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:29.880 the hero and how it resonates through uh, through our 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.320 culture and through through our our the way we view 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:35.760 the world, and and perhaps that ends up informing it. 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:37.800 You You have James Bond in your mind, and then 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:40.560 you end up creating Jason Bourne and Jack Bauer in 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:43.560 the same way, and I'm just purely spitballing here. You 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.880 could perhaps have the mythic hercules in your mind, and 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.920 then when you need to create another, you know, mythically 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.440 strong hero, perhaps you go with the Hulk. The same 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:58.840 kind of consonants. Yeah, we associate sounds with with ideas, certainly. Yeah, 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.320 now another crazy one. And I love this one in 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:05.000 part because it involves Edgar Allan Poe. Of course, Edgar 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:08.000 Allan Poe only wrote one novel his entire career, you know, 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:11.120 mostly known for his his excellent short stories. But the 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:14.560 novel in question published an eighteen thirty eight the narrative 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.800 of author Gordon Pym of Nantucket. I've never read it, 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:21.680 never mean, I never read any there. But the fiction 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:23.440 of this story is you have a crew of a 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:26.760 ship called Grampus. They wind up adrift with no food 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.760 or water, and so first they catch a towrartoise. They 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:33.080 eat it, but eventually they have to draw straws to 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.960 see who winds up as a dinner and uh an 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:40.480 individual named Richard Parker draws the short straw, so they 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.960 stab him and then they eat him. And then they 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.600 build a house on the boat so that they can 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:47.479 bury him behind the wall. Yeah, I mean, you gotta 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.320 play the greatest hits, right, here's where he gets crazy. 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:55.479 Years later, in eighteen eighty four, a yacht named the 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:59.560 minion Net leaves England, is headed towards Sydney, Australia, and 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.440 it sinks in a storm. Four men wind up adrift 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:05.479 in a lifeboat. They catch a turtle. They eat it 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.040 all right, But again you're probably thinking at this point, Okay, 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:09.920 you know turtles, how hard are they to catch? There 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.280 are lots of turtles in the world. They're all tasty. Yeah, 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:13.480 And if you're four men in a boat in the 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:15.560 middle of nowhere and you're hungry, you're gonna eat it. 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:18.840 No good deal. But then it turns to cannibalism, and 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:21.480 this too you might think, well, what a four guys 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:22.960 in the middle, in the middle of the ocean in 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.200 a little boat. They're hungry, They've only had one turtle 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:29.120 to eat. It's kind of inevitable, right, Well, this is 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:32.120 this is crazy. But aboard this vessel you have a 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:36.000 seventeen year old named Richard Parker, the same name as 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:40.160 the individual they ate in pose novel. This guy falls overboard, 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:43.040 drinks a bunch of seawater to quench his thirst. Uh. 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:47.040 And so he starts going, he starts deteriorating really quickly 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:50.040 here and they side, well, he's he's about to die. 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.200 We're gonna have to eat him, and they eat him. 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:56.960 So you have these this fictional account of cannibalism seeming 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:01.480 to inform this real life act of cannibalism years later, 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:05.240 and in almost identical circumstances. Yeah, and it's so gruesome 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.320 you can really doubt that they staged it to happen 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:11.120 on purpose because of the novel. Yeah, Like I can't 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.560 imagine them being on the boat and someone saying, look, 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:16.920 I read this book, and uh, there was a guy 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.000 in the book named Richard Parker, and they ate him 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:21.880 in your name is Richard Parker. So I'm not saying 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:27.920 we have to eat you, but come on. Yeah, it's 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:33.240 like the worst school play ever exactly. Alright. So in 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:35.600 this we're talking about coincidence, and in this episode we're 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:40.040 talking about coincidence and the science of coincidence, how we 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:43.800 perceive a coincidence. Uh, but let's let's get down to 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:47.559 brass tacks. What exactly is a coincidence? Yeah, and specifically 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:49.440 I think we should think about what's the difference between 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:54.120 a coincidence and just an improbable event um So of 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:58.760 standard Oxford dictionaries, definition is a remarkable concurrence of events 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:02.960 or circumstances without apparent causal connection. Okay, so that's sort 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:06.400 of playing up on the like the two different things coinciding, 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:09.760 like like the Pim right, like the Gordon Pim example, 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.440 or like Jefferson and Adams, you know, dying on the 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:17.520 same day. Another way of putting it is that it's 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:22.959 a concurrence of events that is quote perceived as meaningfully 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:27.000 related with no apparent causal connection. Um and and that 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:28.920 quotes from a paper that we're gonna end up talking 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.560 about later in this episode. But I think that's something 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:36.920 we should highlight, is that a coincidence has a perceptual element. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.960 It's something that seems to be important to us, like 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:43.000 it has a psychic weight. But you know it, it 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.280 kind of comes back to what we're talking about earlier 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:47.440 about the two students in the classroom. One of them 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:51.720 is just enthralled by the Kennedy Lincoln coincidence list and 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.120 the other is, uh, it's just tunes out on it. 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:57.520 Because that that kind of comes down to how we 0:09:57.520 --> 0:09:59.960 can look at coincidence in life. You can either say 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:02.640 was just pure dumblock. It is just a matter of statistics. 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:05.559 And then there's the the the view that there's something 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.359 else going on here, that there is some sort of connected, 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.920 connective tissue that we were just not privy to. And 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:16.280 we have seen some very you know, thoughtful and informed 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.960 study on both sides of the issue. Right, there have 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:23.600 been brilliant people throughout the years who paid way more 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.280 attention to coincidences than we might today. I mean, we 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:29.600 all experience coincidences. I would be shocked if there was 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.720 someone who would say, no, I've never experienced anything like 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:36.000 a really weird concurrence. It happens every single day. It 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:38.040 happened to us we were talking about while we were 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:42.079 researching these podcasts, like just strange topics coming up and 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:46.480 seemingly unrelated episodes. Yeah, I mean, of course, that kind 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.120 of gets down to that, like the power of coincidence. 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:52.079 Coincidence can can kill you, Coincidence can can make you rich. 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.800 Coincidence can just be this seemingly meaningless, little connective tissue 0:10:55.840 --> 0:11:00.360 between two things. Um, and it's trapped. It's so easy 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:04.240 to fall into especially given how important causation and determination 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.600 are in human culture. Right, And we'll get more into 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:09.080 that later, but I mean you you almost can't fault 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:13.439 an individual for for thinking about these coincidences in terms 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:15.960 of some sort of connection. Now, and you see it 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:19.480 at every level. I mean, what is the meat cute 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:22.520 and every romantic comedy. It's always some kind of coincidence 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.199 that brings people together. And on the opposite end, you've 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.920 got famous scientists who have tried to investigate, you know, 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:32.480 what's the meaning of coincidences. I think one great example 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:36.120 is the Austrian biologists Paul Camera. Uh you know, if 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.200 if you ever have that feeling like wow, I think 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:43.840 everything's connected, he did too. So Paul Camera lived from 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.600 eighteen eighty to nineteen twenty six and he was a 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.959 proponent of Lamarckian evolution. Have you ever, I'm sure you're 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:53.600 familiar with this. This is the the one that, just 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:56.160 to give everyone a quick reminder, the idea that say, giraffes, 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.280 their next grow long because they're reaching for those top 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.440 those top leads, and so it's like one generation informing 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:05.120 the next. Yeah. So normally, now what we believe is 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:08.959 min Dalian genetics. You know, you inherit, you inherit your 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:12.040 genetic traits from your parents germ cells, and you pass 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.679 those same genetic traits onto your kids. And unless you 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:18.400 have a certain mutation, that can be basically random. But yeah, 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:21.560 Lamarchian ideas where that you could, you know, maybe if 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:23.800 you work out a lot or something, your kids will 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.240 be born with bigger muscles or something. You strain your 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:28.640 neck trying to reach something in this life, and in 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:31.200 the next life, your kids will have longer necks by 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:35.280 virtue of your straining. Yeah. And so in one famous experiment, 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.040 Camera claimed to have caused male specimens of a of 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:43.520 an animal called the midwife toad to grow these black 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:47.000 forearm pads that some species of male toads have, and 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:51.239 that they used them to hold onto females during mating. Unfortunately, 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:54.280 some other scientists in the field examined camera specimens and 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.400 found that the black pads on his toads had been 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:02.600 injected with artificial inc and so Camera denied responsibility for that. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.679 And I guess nobody really knows whose fault that was, 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.640 but the accusation here would be that he cheated, which 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.160 is important because we'll come back to cheating, right. But 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:15.920 Camera wasn't only interested in toads and inheritance. He was 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:20.800 also interested in coincidences, like he kept a diary of 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.240 daily coincidences. And just one example against id it in 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:25.680 a in a paper that we're going to bring up 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.480 in a bit, his brother in law tells him that 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:31.720 he attended a concert and held both the ticket for 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:39.080 seat number nine and the coach check ticket numbered nine. WHOA, yeah, yeah. 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:43.680 But anyway, that itself doesn't seem all that interesting until 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:48.240 you start making lists, which Camera did, and he added 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.680 them up over time, and I have to admit, when 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.120 you add it's it's kind of like the Lincoln Kennedy thing. 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.680 The first one isn't all that interesting until you start 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.560 adding them together, and then it really gets your attention. 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:05.559 There's this cumulative effect of this like snowballing kind of attention, 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.520 getting significance of coincidences that pile up on each other. 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:13.040 So Camera organized these thoughts into a hypothesis he called 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.840 the law of seriality uh, and he posited basically this 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:22.000 underlying force in reality that was a quote world mosaic 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:27.400 or cosmic kaleidoscope that brings like objects and events together. 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.200 So almost a kind of emergent order, uh in the 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.960 Chaos show, which I can buy into. And we see 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:40.880 in emergence as as a major topic in understanding and intelligence, evolution, etcetera. 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:45.120 So why not coincidence? Sure? But of course Camera wasn't 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:49.360 the only scientist who has been interested in coincidences and 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:54.400 who has attributed some significant role in the universe to them. 0:14:54.560 --> 0:15:00.240 Carl Young. Carl Young loved coincidences. Carl So, Carl Young 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.520 was a Swiss psychiatrist. You probably heard of him as 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:04.720 sort of like a he's one of the big names 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:09.200 in psychology and psychiatry following Freud. It's like the Mantle. 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:18.120 But Young was was very much into sort of interesting 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:23.640 borderline magical esoteric ideas. So he loved the paranormal. He 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:31.360 was interested in meaningful connections and mystical truths, esp astrology, psychokinesis, 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:33.960 all kinds of stuff like that. And so naturally he 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:38.880 was really interested in coincidences. And so he wrote a 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:45.240 book called Synchronicity and a Causal Connecting Principle. And this 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.560 book was actually uh, it was I think extracted from 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.160 a larger volume of his work and eventually published on 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:53.120 its own. But I read this book when I was 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.040 in college, and I remember thinking at the time, yet 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:58.640 again playing up on my I guess I'm susceptible to 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:00.840 this kind of thing. I was like, I wonder if 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:05.760 he's onto something here. It seemed really interesting. So what 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:10.560 kind of coincidences did Young notice? Well, he gives one example. 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.040 This is the one that's always cited. It's it's it's 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:17.560 his favorite example. It's the Golden Scarub. So in a 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:21.440 ninety one I believe it was essay on synchronicity. Young 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.400 told the story that he had been seeing a female 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:29.280 patient for psychoanalysis, and Young believed basically that she was 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.680 languishing because she was in sort of a prison of rationality. 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:36.640 She was just too rational. She she wouldn't quote open 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.640 up to the human side of life. For Young, I 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:43.600 think this had a decidedly sort of supernatural tinge to it. 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:48.080 And um, he wanted to uh and this is from 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:52.200 a particular translation quote sweeten her rationalism with a somewhat 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:56.840 more human understanding. So one day she was in psychoanalysis 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:00.240 telling him about a dream she had had where one 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:05.280 gave her a golden scarrub. And Young claims at that 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:09.280 very moment an insects started knocking against the window of 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.080 the office where they were, and he opened the window 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.520 and he caught the insect and it was a beatle. 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.480 It was a scarub type of beatle. And he said 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:19.480 it was like a green color, but in the right 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:22.800 light it reflected the light and looked gold. And then 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:25.800 he presented it to her in this moment of you know, 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:27.720 one of those there are more things in Heaven and 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.600 Earth than I dreamt of in your philosophy kind of moments, 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:35.959 and and he hoped that this helped shatter her rationalism. 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.360 And so I don't know if that happened to me. 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:41.560 If I had just been talking about a beatle and 0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:44.600 then a beatle started knocking against the window, I'd probably 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:48.199 think that was interesting. But I don't know if I 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.800 had designed any meaning to it. Yeah, it doesn't really 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:55.200 smack of just Heaven sent beetle sent to you, open 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.439 up my mind and make me more, you know, in 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:01.040 love with life because of just a lot of beetles 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:04.040 flying around out there. Sure, but Young commented that when 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:08.159 coincidences like these accumulate, it's what we were talking about earlier. 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:10.240 The more of them happen, the more we take note 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:13.879 of them. Uh, and with good reason, because it's harder 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:17.560 to explain them away by random chance. The more they accumulate, 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.200 you fill up that entire diary with them, right, Yeah, 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:23.639 it has way to it exactly. So Young came up 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:28.080 with this term synchronicity to describe the a causal connecting 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.640 principle that links meaningfully significant events that couldn't be connected 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:35.520 by physical causes. So he's not saying that there's like 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:38.720 a there's like a you know, a ghost that put 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:43.600 the beetle there, because that would be in some way causal. Instead, 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:47.639 he's saying, there's another force in the universe other than causality. 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:51.960 It sort of runs parallel to causality that connects events 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:56.640 and and creates links of significance. But it's not physics. 0:18:57.560 --> 0:18:59.440 Like I kind of in making sense of it in 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:01.359 my own head, I thought of it in terms of 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.399 this room or recording, in in which case we have 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.160 wires that are running outside of the walls, then running 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:09.639 across the floor and under the table, and then there 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:12.000 are the wires within the wall that we cannot see. 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.359 And so the wires that are running outside of the 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.040 walls are are kind of like causality. We can we 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.520 can see them. We're in causality. We our brain spends 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:22.760 a lot of time making sense of cause and effect. 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.639 But then there's this idea that there might be some 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:28.080 other force at work within the walls. We can't see it, 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:30.840 we're not we're not privy to it. It's exact in 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.760 an ins and outs, but it's it's making things interconnected. 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:38.400 It's it's these connections are popping up throughout our life, 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:42.240 throughout the Times game. Yeah, causality connects events in the 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:47.040 physical realm, and according to Young, synchronicity would connect events 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:50.560 in sort of like the psychic meaningfulness realm. That it 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:54.359 was this force it makes things have meaning and shows 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:59.520 us meaning by bringing unlikely events together. Okay, so this 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:03.840 would be kind of like an um. Have you seen Interstellar? Yes? Okay, 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.040 so there's the whole bit in there about love. Is 0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:08.720 this uh, this connecting force like that seems to line 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:12.119 up rather closely with this idea of synchronicity. Yeah, I 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.919 think that makes sense. So coincidences obviously have this power 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:19.719 over us. They captivate us, they seem significance, They make 0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:22.560 us wonder if there is some kind of magical or 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:26.800 super psychic force at work, and sometimes it can be 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:31.439 hard to tell because we don't know how to analyze coincidences, 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:35.760 you know, like there, when something happens, like you get 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.840 a number nine from the coach check and then you're 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.480 in seat number nine, there's really no reason to ask 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:46.399 why something like that happened, but you can perhaps ask, 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:52.840 wait a minute, did anything significant actually happen. Indeed, now 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:56.800 we've talked about the the sort of supernatural end of 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:58.560 the pool, the idea that there is some sort of 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:02.879 of intrinsic synchronicity connecting these these events, and now we're 0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:04.959 gonna we're gonna look at a more critical and more 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:07.720 skeptical side of the pool. Right, So, several times so 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:10.520 far in this podcast we've referred ahead to a paper, 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:15.040 and this is sort of a classic paper in statistics 0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:19.399 and mathematical analysis of coincidences, and it's called Methods for 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.840 Studying Coincidences. It was published by the Journal of the 0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:26.520 American Statistical Association in December nineteen eighty nine. I think 0:21:26.560 --> 0:21:29.320 it had been given at a been given as a 0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:33.240 presentation in eighty seven a couple of years before. But 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:36.879 it's by Percy Diaconis and Frederick Moss Stellar, and they 0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:42.159 were I believe, Harvard mathematicians, and Diaconis and Moss Stellar 0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:48.760 offer four main categories of explanation for seeming examples of synchronicity. 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.080 You know, they refer to camera, they refer to young, 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:53.960 and they say, what what do we make of these events? 0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:56.200 And and how can we tell if something is actually 0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:59.000 going on that's worth noting. So the first of the 0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:03.400 options is that there is an actual causal link. It's 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:07.080 not a coincidence, because there's a cause that to seemingly 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:12.240 disparate events happen together. The second one is psychology. It's 0:22:12.560 --> 0:22:14.800 something about the way our brains work, the fact that 0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:17.639 we're noticing what seemed to be coincidences, and will definitely 0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:20.560 have more on that later. Another point is what they 0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:24.520 call the multiplicity of end points, and this is going 0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:27.360 to be about how how we count something as a hit. 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:31.600 And then the last one that they cite is called 0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:33.960 the law of truly large numbers, and that's going to 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:37.440 be about statistical context. So I think we should go 0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:41.200 back and look at causes first. So when something happens 0:22:41.960 --> 0:22:46.760 that's seemingly just a huge coincidence, you should always consider 0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:49.800 the fact that there might be a cause that's more 0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:52.639 obvious than you realize. This would, of course be the 0:22:52.720 --> 0:22:56.960 birthday problem, right, which is a problem that that people 0:22:57.000 --> 0:23:00.880 will encounter just everywhere, right and in your workplace that's Google, etcetera. 0:23:01.040 --> 0:23:02.879 I mean we can encounter it right here in the 0:23:02.920 --> 0:23:06.600 podcast Chamber Joe Win your birthday July six, mind Sectober six? 0:23:07.040 --> 0:23:12.000