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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Wait wait in me raise your hand if you saw

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Speaker 2: this one coming, I guess he Scott can run all

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Speaker 2: night and you go through it. What's up, Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network podcast. This is the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two French Open betting preview. I'm stucky in Joining

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Speaker 2: me today is an old friend, Daniel Scotty at Scottie

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Speaker 2: Pippin on Twitter. You tennis betters might know of him. Scotty,

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Speaker 2: how is it? How's it going? Brother?

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Speaker 1: It's good man. I'm excited for the fortnight of tennis

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Speaker 1: among other things.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, she'll be exciting, Scotty. Funny story we actually met.

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Speaker 2: We met through Twitter and from tennis betting back in

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Speaker 2: the day, and we actually first met at the US Open.

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Speaker 2: Was it the US Open or the A ten Tournament?

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Speaker 2: I think the first one we actually met in person

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Speaker 2: was the US Open. Uh US Open actually have evening

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Speaker 2: session passes right here. We had. We're in the club

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Speaker 2: suite with money on Fonini against the doll and we

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Speaker 2: made We made the broadcast a couple of times in ESPN.

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Speaker 2: We were told we were up in the sweet. We

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Speaker 2: were the only ones in the stadium here in for Fonini, who.

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Speaker 1: Came back the first time the Doll ever lost for

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Speaker 1: being up two sets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's up two sets to love. Fonini came back

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Speaker 2: and won. It was thrilling. I think the Dolls since

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Speaker 2: lost one other time being up two sets to love. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: So he has two losses. Now. We saw one of

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Speaker 2: them live. So that's when we met. And then up

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Speaker 2: there on a weekend. Scotty's a lot younger than me.

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Speaker 2: He had a job in New York City. They didn't

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Speaker 2: really love and we went out and the next morning,

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Speaker 2: I think we went out drinking and then we ended

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Speaker 2: up had to sleep in my car. I was gonna

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Speaker 2: leave that night, but we stayed up and it's cut

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Speaker 2: a couple hours of sleep in my car, and then

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Speaker 2: I was bringing him home in the morning so I

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Speaker 2: could drive back down to Philly. And this is when

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Speaker 2: we were first starting Action Network, and I was like,

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Speaker 2: you're not going to your job this morning. We're going

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Speaker 2: to find a spot for you. And he's taken over

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Speaker 2: a role in the product side, and he's done a

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Speaker 2: hell of a job. But we've worked together since. I

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Speaker 2: still go up and visit him and we just sit

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Speaker 2: in bed on tennis, so we're excited to talk French

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Speaker 2: Open today. Let's just dive right in. We're going to

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Speaker 2: spend most of our time on the men's and then

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Speaker 2: we're going to get to the women's. I'm so excited

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Speaker 2: about the men's field because usually it's like, all right,

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Speaker 2: wake me up when it's Nadal vers Djokovic in the

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Speaker 2: final and the Dolls obviously dominated this tournament over the years,

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Speaker 2: the King of Clay. But then the draws come out

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Speaker 2: today and it felt a little more wide open going

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Speaker 2: into the pre draw because you had fitness questions that

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Speaker 2: Nidal was dealing with, how fit is he going to be?

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Speaker 2: You know, Alcarez was actually the favorite very recently that

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Speaker 2: if you haven't seen the nineteen year old play, he's

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Speaker 2: on a hell of a run. And it just fell

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Speaker 2: a little more wide open than usual French Opens that

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Speaker 2: we've seen in the past. Then the draws come out

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Speaker 2: and Djokovic and the Dollar in the same quarter, and

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Speaker 2: not only that, you have it's just littered with other names,

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Speaker 2: but won the French Open. The top half is loaded

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Speaker 2: and then the bottom half you have quarters that look

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Speaker 2: a little more wide open. On paper, but that doesn't

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Speaker 2: necessarily mean it'll PLoP it. But it's one of the

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Speaker 2: most fascinating draws on the men's side that I can remember,

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Speaker 2: especially at the French Open. Would you agree, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, anytime you get Nadal Novak before a semi final,

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Speaker 1: you know it's a pretty pretty good tournament coming up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Djokovic Nadal quarter, that's the dream, that's the French

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Speaker 2: with the French Open really wants. But if you look

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Speaker 2: at we look at the overall odds, and we'll mention

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Speaker 2: if we see any first round matchups, but obviously that

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Speaker 2: we want to mention, but obviously follow us on the

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Speaker 2: action of our cap. But if you look at just

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Speaker 2: the overall odds, Djokovic is the favorite at around two

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Speaker 2: to one. I believe I saw like plus one sixty

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Speaker 2: pre draw Nine's like plus one ninety. That's because obviously

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Speaker 2: the quarter he's in the dollars quarter and his path

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Speaker 2: is a more difficult. Alca's around like plus two to

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Speaker 2: forty in a dollar on plus three fifty sitsypas five

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Speaker 2: to one, Zverev fifteen to one, Rude twenty to one team.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you have to mention it just because he's

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Speaker 2: been to a final here, but he's I think he's

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Speaker 2: on six in a row. He's thirty to one, Medvedev

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Speaker 2: thirty to one, Center around thirty to one, Rubob around

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Speaker 2: thirty to one. That's those are probably ten worth mentioning

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Speaker 2: as like someone you can see. Maybe I don't see

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Speaker 2: a couple of them potentially winning it, but those are

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Speaker 2: like the ten, and I wouldn't go down to like Schwartzman, Fa, Chapavolov, right,

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Speaker 2: would you you start with those ten as the basis

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Speaker 2: of who could potentially win it?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, But it's that's a complicated question because I honestly

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Speaker 1: I do not see a chance for anyone. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'll come around on Sisypas as the potential fourth, but

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Speaker 1: outside of Novak, Carlitos, and Rafa, I really don't see.

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Speaker 1: I'll give Sitsipas you can add him to that bunch,

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Speaker 1: but from whatever that is five to ten, I honestly

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Speaker 1: feel like they have as much of a chance as

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Speaker 1: some of those guys that you even named a Schwartzman

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Speaker 1: to make a semi even like, I'm not that confident

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Speaker 1: in Sasha right now. On Clay, I'm not that confident

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Speaker 1: in a lot of those guys in that kind of

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Speaker 1: five to ten range. So outside of the big three

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Speaker 1: in three and a half, three four, it's anyone's tournament.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But what makes it interesting is the three that

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Speaker 2: you probably have the most confidence in, Djokovic, Alkaraiz and

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Speaker 2: Nadab they're all they're in the same half, so you know,

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Speaker 2: only two of them could actually get to the Semis,

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Speaker 2: and that could open it up for someone else. And

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Speaker 2: when you're talking futures, you might want to look into

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Speaker 2: maybe betting, and we'll talk about this, another guy to

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Speaker 2: win a quarter. But if you do take a future,

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Speaker 2: you know on someone like say rubleav thirty five to one, right,

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Speaker 2: I would agree you and I think I think Semis

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Speaker 2: is probably his seal here. But you always can then

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Speaker 2: have a potential to hedge depending on what happens if

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Speaker 2: you root for chaos elsewhere. But that's what makes the

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Speaker 2: strouglem the most interesting.

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Speaker 1: You know, you know what I'll come back to it

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Speaker 1: really is me and Meir Keatsmanovich, who has had like

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Speaker 1: an incredible clay season and into the hard season and

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Speaker 1: then back onto the clay too. He's just had really

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Speaker 1: an amazing twenty twenty two as a whole, he's in

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Speaker 1: that that Medvedev quarter, which is the obvious wide open one.

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Speaker 1: You look at the names in there. He's in the

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Speaker 1: bottom half of that quarter with Medvedev. If it comes

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Speaker 1: to a match between them and whatever, it would be

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Speaker 1: the third round. If Medvedev gets that far, I have

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Speaker 1: all the confidence in me and me are getting through that.

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Speaker 2: Let me stop you there, because we're gonna get We're

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Speaker 2: gonna get to that quarter and we're gonna go through

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Speaker 2: quarter by quarter. I do want to mention, like I said,

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Speaker 2: Djokotz defending champ top half stronger than the bottom half.

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Speaker 2: There's no Federer here, There's no Monfi and there's no

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Speaker 2: Fellly Lopez. He was gonna be Boston Cluffin. I did

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Speaker 2: not have a wild card. He was going for his

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Speaker 2: eightieth straight main draw appearance, eightieth twenty years. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's just dive into the first quarter, which is you

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Speaker 2: know Djokovic is the top seed. Then you know in

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Speaker 2: his half of that quarter, you have to meet Yourov

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Speaker 2: who if you want to pick someone else that just

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Speaker 2: got shafted by the draw, I mean you look, you're

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Speaker 2: Demetrov from God. I got Schwartzman, Nadal, Djokovic, and Duetroston

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Speaker 2: playing decent tennis. I mean he has last three losses

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Speaker 2: of all come against Sitzepas who's great on clay. But

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Speaker 2: I mean, just for the first of this quarter is insane.

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Speaker 2: Here's in two thousand and five. Here's who won the

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Speaker 2: French Open. Nadal thirteen times, Djokovic twice, Favrika who's also

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Speaker 2: in this quarter once, and then Fed's not here once.

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Speaker 2: So all sixteen of the last seventeen French Open champions

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Speaker 2: championships are in this quarter and Fed, who's not here.

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Speaker 2: Anyone who's ever won it is in this quarter except Fed,

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Speaker 2: who's not in the field. Crazy. Djokovic has made fifteen

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Speaker 2: straight fourth round at slams. The last time he lost

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Speaker 2: before the fourth round, lost in the second round. And

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Speaker 2: we're talking about the frit not here, not here, just

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Speaker 2: overall a slam.

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Speaker 1: It's a minute.

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Speaker 2: The as yep. He's made twelve straight French Open quarter finals.

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Speaker 2: And then you look at Nadal and that was one

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Speaker 2: hundred and five and three here, Yeah, insing he has

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Speaker 2: two of those losses are also in this quarter. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Soda Lang is one and then Djokovic for the other two.

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Speaker 2: He's won thirteen of the last sixteen or thirteen of

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Speaker 2: sixteen in his career of French Opens. That he didn't

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Speaker 2: withdraw him. He withdrew with an injury from one. So

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Speaker 2: you look and you say, is there any way in

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Speaker 2: the world Maybe the answer is okay, if the doll

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Speaker 2: isn't fit that we don't get a Djokovic Nadal quarter.

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Speaker 2: You look at Okay. Can Dimetrov beat Djokovic? He did

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Speaker 2: beat at once on clay back in twenty thirteen. On

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Speaker 2: his best day. He's still scary, but he's not the

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Speaker 2: same as the best day.

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Speaker 1: He can take a set off noteback these days and

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Speaker 1: his best day in Novak's like a bad day for Novak.

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Speaker 1: I'll take a set.

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Speaker 2: Schwartzman, who's in also in Djokovic. He took Djokovic five

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Speaker 2: at the twenty seventeen French Open. That might be is

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Speaker 2: he someone that can potentially upset Djokovic.

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Speaker 1: He's a guy that I wouldn't be surprised to see

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Speaker 1: in a fourth or fifth set against Novak when they

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Speaker 1: if they do play, so yeah, I mean it'll be

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Speaker 1: trouble in that match if anything else.

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Speaker 2: And then on the bottom half Nadal, who has fitness questions.

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Speaker 2: He lost to Alcarez at Madrid and he was also

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Speaker 2: tested versus go find there. I mean he barely pulled

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Speaker 2: that out. They lost to Chapa in Rome. How fit

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Speaker 2: is he is the question. The two biggest names that

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Speaker 2: flash right up when you look at his part of

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Speaker 2: the draw in this quarter are Fonini and Vavrinka, who

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Speaker 2: are shells of their prize cells but on their best day,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean Fonini has four wins over

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Speaker 2: in the doll. Lavrinka has three wins over in the doll.

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Speaker 2: They've both beaten them on clay. The problem is they're

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Speaker 2: not on great form and they're not really who we

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Speaker 2: once remember them as. But is there is? It just

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Speaker 2: come down the Daal's fitness. If he's fit, he's going

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Speaker 2: to the quarters here. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And I think even if he's not that fit, he's

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Speaker 1: going to the quarters here. I mean Tom and Thompson

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Speaker 1: in the first round is like, that's gonna he'll he'll

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Speaker 1: be on court for about an hour and ten that match,

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Speaker 1: so he'll be off court quick in that one. I

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Speaker 1: can't If Stan gets through Mute is gonna be tough

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Speaker 1: in Paris. What's the best thing we see this? Stan's

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Speaker 1: not stends and take a set off Raf in a final.

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Speaker 1: He's not gonna take a set, you know when he

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Speaker 1: was playing good tennis where he's coming back to form here.

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Speaker 1: So no concern that those are the first two.

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Speaker 2: Matches stand with Stanley three. I would give Stan a

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Speaker 2: better shout if this is like three sets, that's the

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Speaker 2: three Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I don't see stan even taking a set. But even so,

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Speaker 1: these are the things that that that accumulate or in

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Speaker 1: a good way for Nadal going deep in tournaments, These

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Speaker 1: ones where he gets through the first two matches where

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Speaker 1: he's on court for an hour each match or whatever

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Speaker 1: it is, straight sets, and I see that for him

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Speaker 1: in this with with the field he's got here, bo

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Speaker 1: Tic van Deazanschulp, I mean, I don't see him troubling Raf.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: How about so he's the wild card. I really wasn't.

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Speaker 1: I didn't rate his game on on cl heading into

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Speaker 1: this year, even midway through the clay season. The last

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Speaker 1: few events he's specifically that Novak match, he's found something

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Speaker 1: and he The thing with him is that like you

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Speaker 1: got when you look at him, you have to really

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Speaker 1: like take his game as like one of the top

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Speaker 1: five servers in all of tennis. He has that type

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Speaker 1: of first serve. If he gets his first served down

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Speaker 1: with any regularity, he can take the racket out of

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Speaker 1: the opponent's hand. And he's doing that on clay. He's

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Speaker 1: there athletically, he can return well, he rallies well. The

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Speaker 1: variety's a bit for me. Point construction is the main

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Speaker 1: thing to be desired with him.

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Speaker 2: But Nadall would be a.

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Speaker 1: Heavy favoritegainst him in a fourth round, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean.

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Speaker 2: So, and interesting thing is I saw, I saw, and

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Speaker 2: when we're saying fa we're talking about a listen of

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Speaker 2: the Canadian tennis player. He was sixty five to one

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Speaker 2: and I recently saw him updated with updated outs of

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Speaker 2: forty to one. So his odds have come down. He's

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Speaker 2: taken some money despite being in the same quarter as

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Speaker 2: Djokovic and Nadal. Now from a futures perspective, right we

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Speaker 2: have Nidal plus three point fifty Djokovic plus one ninety overall.

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Speaker 2: You were telling me earlier today when we spoke that

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Speaker 2: you like the fact that Nadal's in a tough quarter.

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Speaker 2: You like the fact that he has to go through

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Speaker 2: Djokovic in the quarters, right, because you don't want him

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Speaker 2: to be as worn down when he has to then

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Speaker 2: face Djokovic six matches in.

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Speaker 1: Right, It's not that I was happy that Nadal was

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Speaker 1: playing in a hard quarter. It's that he's playing in

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Speaker 1: the quarter with Novak because the way I see it,

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Speaker 1: and I touched on it earlier, I see three guys

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Speaker 1: with a legitimate chance to win this tournament Alcarez, Novak,

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Speaker 1: and Nadal. So that ignoring Alcarez for a second, Nadal

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Speaker 1: pretty much knows he's gonna have to go through Novak

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Speaker 1: at some point, be it a semi, be it a final.

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Speaker 1: Whenever it is, he's probably gonna have to beat Novak.

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Speaker 1: He has to at least be preparing for that mentally.

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Speaker 1: So if that's the test at hand, and we're worried

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Speaker 1: about Nadal's chronic injury, it's not like he's needs you know,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna get more as the tournament goes. He needs

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Speaker 1: to get you know, he's gonna recover early and he'll

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Speaker 1: be better for the week two. It's not how it is.

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Speaker 1: He's got some days he'll be able to push through it.

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Speaker 1: Some days he won't. We don't really know. So for me,

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Speaker 1: less mileage on the feet, on the legs, everything. Give

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Speaker 1: me Novak. If I'm a Nadal fan, which I am

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Speaker 1: as early as possible if I could, and I'm the

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Speaker 1: main goal is to win the tournament, give me him

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Speaker 1: in the second third round if i'm if I'm on

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Speaker 1: form already, because you're gonna have to beat him at

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Speaker 1: any point at some point, so might as well do

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Speaker 1: it while you're at your best. If we're concerned that

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Speaker 1: Nadal is going to fade level wise going deep in.

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Speaker 2: The tournament, yeah, that's just it's the big mystery with it.

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Speaker 2: And look, we can't say that we know that Djokovic

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Speaker 2: is in tip top peak form. Now. Look when we

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Speaker 2: saw him Againstko Kina in a loss, right, and he

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Speaker 2: wore down in the third set, right, and then you

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Speaker 2: have you're like, oh, wow, Djokovic doesn't really have a

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Speaker 2: shot at this front, Joe. And then he picked up

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Speaker 2: his form and then the last we saw him was

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Speaker 2: in Rome, which he won without dropping a set, looked

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Speaker 2: a lot better. But you know these are best of five.

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Speaker 2: Do we know that Djokovic is So the questions with

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Speaker 2: both of them and say that both like actually find

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Speaker 2: their form and they don't have fitness issues what you've

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Speaker 2: seen to them of late, and fitness isn't a concern.

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Speaker 2: If these two met in the quarter, I know you're

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Speaker 2: probably gonna say, Nadal, but what is your just what

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Speaker 2: is your distinguishing factor there?

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Speaker 1: So hang on there. First of all, I don't know

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Speaker 1: how Novak does this. It almost doesn't almost it does

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Speaker 1: bother me the way that he's able bothering you a shocker.

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Speaker 1: He fools me every year because he'll he'll have a

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Speaker 1: stinker tournament where he'll look awful, and I watch all

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Speaker 1: these matches, the whole match, and I'll be like, there's

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Speaker 1: no way this guy I'm watching now is going to

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Speaker 1: turn this thing around in a month or in a

306
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Speaker 1: few weeks, whatever it is. And then he does this

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Speaker 1: shit every single year. It takes one or two tournaments,

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Speaker 1: one tournament where he's like met and then a second

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Speaker 1: tournament where he plays into his top form. We can't

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Speaker 1: say Novak is entering this tournament as always on pretty

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Speaker 1: close to peak form. I think he was pretty much

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Speaker 1: untested throughout Rome, so like it's hard to say he's

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Speaker 1: not on peak form After winning a clay masters. So

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Speaker 1: it's scary that he's able to do this. But now

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Speaker 1: coming back to your question, all is fine and well,

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Speaker 1: will assume he's on near peak form. Let's say Novak

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Speaker 1: has a crew, cruises to the quarterfinal and Nadal does two.

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Speaker 1: What do you I answer you with another question, what

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Speaker 1: do you see that line being?

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Speaker 2: I can't well, that would be a favorite, thank you? Yeah, Well,

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Speaker 2: assuming that like he assuming that he didn't like look

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Speaker 2: a little hampered, right, So like if he was if

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Speaker 2: he was grinding out wins, right, and say like he

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Speaker 2: didn't look himself early and then pulls out like a

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Speaker 2: five set. By the way, this we're gonna have tiebreaker,

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Speaker 2: final set, tiebreaker to ten right that Now every single

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Speaker 2: major will have that.

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Speaker 1: Oh they standardized it.

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Speaker 2: Yep. Going forward, I hate but say he beats like

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Speaker 2: FAA in the fourth round and like a fifth set breaker. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and then Djokovic just hasn't dropped a set. Then I

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Speaker 2: could see Djokovic being a favor. But if Nadal's looks

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Speaker 2: healthy and is rolling through it's Nadal at the French Open,

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Speaker 2: He's probably be a favorite there. What's priced in the

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Speaker 2: line is just there's more uncertainty with Nadal and his fitness,

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Speaker 2: which is the difference there. I look, I'm saying far

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Speaker 2: away from any futures on either of them. That's interesting

338
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Speaker 2: in the uncertainty that on the quarters are you're going

339
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Speaker 2: to be, and you think that there's value in the

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Speaker 2: doll plus three fifty.

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Speaker 1: As every time he puts his name in the draw,

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Speaker 1: I'll bet him until until it's no longer in there.

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Speaker 1: It's been the most the safest bet literally I've come

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Speaker 1: to know in this life. So as a tip of

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Speaker 1: the cap, yeah, I'll be on the doll, especially at

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Speaker 1: that number. I'm not sure if I saw a pre

347
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Speaker 1: post draw rather, but it's still around what plus three

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Speaker 1: hundred to ninety and you're.

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Speaker 2: Two plus three fifty maybe out there, So.

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Speaker 1: Three fifty is an even better number. And we've already

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Speaker 1: established that if you're confident as a gambler that he'll

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Speaker 1: get through names that he should be in comprehensive fashion

353
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Speaker 1: in these early rounds, you will get a position to

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Speaker 1: hedge if you do that sort of thing with Novak,

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Speaker 1: most likely as a dog in the quarterfinal. You're getting

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Speaker 1: a guy at plus three hundred for the tournament who

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Speaker 1: will likely be favor over the number world number one

358
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Speaker 1: in the quarter final, so we're talking about value. Nadala.

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Speaker 1: He's a guy that you're used to seeing minus one

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Speaker 1: fifty up to minus two fifty priced before the French Open.

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Speaker 1: So to see that flipped with the plus two, with

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Speaker 1: a plus and a two, I'm on that. I'll probably

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Speaker 1: take a stab on both the Spaniards in typical Scottie fashion.

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Speaker 1: I really see it being one of those three. So

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Speaker 1: give me the two that are priced higher, not the

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Speaker 1: one that's the favorite.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, that brings us to the other quarter

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Speaker 2: in the top half, and we have the red hot.

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Speaker 2: This is very quarter, but it's really Carlos. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: the Carlos quarter. Who's red hot? I mean he If

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Speaker 2: you haven't play, maybe there's some people that are listening, like, hey,

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Speaker 2: it's the French Open, it's a slam. I want to

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Speaker 2: bet and I'm listening to this podcast. You might not

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Speaker 2: have seen. If you're more casual. Oker's played. How would

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Speaker 2: you describe his game? And he look, he's nineteen years old.

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Speaker 2: He has beat the biggest names and the best players

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Speaker 2: in the game. This year, he's won a couple of tournaments,

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Speaker 2: the biggest question is is he ready? Right? He was

379
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Speaker 2: playing qualifying in the French Open last year and now

380
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Speaker 2: he's almost the odds on favorite. He won Madrid, he

381
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Speaker 2: won Miami this year. I mean he's but he's never

382
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Speaker 2: played in a major seven. So, like we talked about

383
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Speaker 2: this the other week, does he have to get to

384
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Speaker 2: like a final or get to and this is best

385
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Speaker 2: of fives, it's a little different. Does he have to

386
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Speaker 2: get there, get the taste, you know, lose to like

387
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 2: say and the doll in the semi and then before

388
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Speaker 2: he takes that next step or is he he could

389
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Speaker 2: maybe he's gonna be like, well, all these next Genners

390
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Speaker 2: who can't win, and we know where we don't count

391
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Speaker 2: the US Open win when no one was there for team.

392
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Speaker 2: But his opera is ready. Also described the little bit

393
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Speaker 2: of his game and why he's so good, especially in clay.

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Speaker 1: Yes, so alcaaz Is game is just fire. That's like

395
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Speaker 1: the only way to explain it. He's crazy explosive. He's

396
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Speaker 1: like the best way to explain this to a casual fan,

397
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Speaker 1: hopefully not too casual enough to know the references. But

398
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Speaker 1: he's got Novak's defensive skills and speed on the baseline,

399
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 1: you know, going back and forth. He has Nadal's bravery,

400
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:33,720
Speaker 1: his mentality, and his variety with the drop shots in

401
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 1: big moments, and he has but Nadal obviously a consummate

402
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 1: counterpuncher for a lot of his career. Federer, he's got

403
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 1: the Federer front foot nature with his offensive game. Just attack, attack, attack,

404
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: so he can attack like Federer. Have the intangibles and

405
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 1: the mental of Nadal and the defensive and athleticism of

406
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Speaker 1: Novak all in one player. And he's nineteen. And I've

407
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 1: never seen the kids sweat. He's an alien. He literally

408
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,879
Speaker 1: is an alien. I've never seen this. It's a teenager

409
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,680
Speaker 1: in big, big, big, the biggest tennis matches, and I've

410
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 1: never seen the kids sweat. He pulls out a drop shot,

411
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 1: typically a fourhand drop shot, only when he needs to

412
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 1: in the biggest moments in match, be it a big

413
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 1: second set tie break or something like that late in

414
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Speaker 1: the match. Very a la Nadal. I've never seen him

415
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Speaker 1: miss one, not one. And I have like a weird

416
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 1: ass memory with this type of ship, Like I remember,

417
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: especially when I'm betting matches, like I'm gonna, I'm gonna

418
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 1: He's bound to miss that next time. He has never

419
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Speaker 1: come up short. The kid is an alien, So is

420
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Speaker 1: he ready for a slem?

421
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Speaker 2: This is a ball that was a bold stand. He's

422
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 2: this of this of this reminds me of David Montgomery,

423
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 2: the running back who meme where feet of Saquon Barkley,

424
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 2: vision of Lev Bell, strength of Zeke and athleticism. So

425
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: all right, so number I answer the question, do you

426
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Speaker 2: think he's ready?

427
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I would say most most players, most players

428
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: would need to get the taste before they can break through.

429
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: He's different. You got to look at him as in

430
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 1: the mold of like a Nadal who won at twenty

431
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 1: or Djokovic who have a great success early. He's a

432
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 1: different type of He's a different type of talent. You

433
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: can't He's in a different strata as these next gen guys.

434
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,679
Speaker 1: You know what's wild. Dominic team has never won a

435
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 1: Master's on clay. I don't think he's even made a

436
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:25,160
Speaker 1: final of a Master's on clay. Alcaraz has two Masters

437
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: tournament wins in the past like three months. So that

438
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 1: whole next gen, that entire generation, the next gen gen.

439
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: There was a lot of talk and a lot of

440
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: peekaboo breakthroughs and no sustained success Alcoraz has been dominant

441
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 1: in the past, like two years, I mean two months,

442
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 1: rather dominant, unplayable, unplayable in semi finals, unplayable. So yeah,

443
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 1: you can't. He's in a league of his own right now.

444
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: We can't compare him to a generation. You got to

445
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 1: compare future generations to how they match up to him.

446
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 2: Well, if you look at the if you break down

447
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 2: this quarter, Zverev has a pretty easy top half of

448
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: this quarter. I mean you have Folkena. I don't. I

449
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 2: can't see Folkeina beating Zverev unless Verev is just double

450
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 2: faulting all over the place. The other the other seeds

451
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 2: in his his half of this quarter are Isner and Fritz.

452
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: It's always nice when you're getting the seeded Americans at

453
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 2: a clay slam. So I think Zverev gets to the

454
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 2: quarters here. He's been actually pretty consistent at slams over

455
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 2: the past couple of years. He made the semis last year.

456
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 2: Here he's made the fourth round and nine straight slams,

457
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 2: and he's made the quarter final and five of the

458
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: last eight the semis and four of the last eight.

459
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 2: So I see him getting to the quarters. I see

460
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,479
Speaker 2: him getting to face Acreas. But before we get to

461
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,959
Speaker 2: that potential match, yeah, Acres has a couple maybe land mines.

462
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 2: He has Nori, who took him three in Madrid. Quarda

463
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 2: actually was the last loss that acre has had in

464
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 2: Monte Carlo, the qort to beat him. There, you have

465
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 2: hats and off and you have team. I don't I

466
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 2: think team. Look. Team is zero and five this year,

467
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 2: all on clay since returning from risk surgery, at risk

468
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: injury that kept him out for ten months. I don't

469
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: see there's any chance that he's getting through this quarter early.

470
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: You have to mention him's been the finals here. Any

471
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 2: one of those names intrigue you or is just alca

472
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: is on a different plane right now?

473
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 1: Not different plane and not even like as much as

474
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: I do like to give you know, credit where to

475
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 1: do for Alcaraz, it's it's specifically the names I'm not of.

476
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,439
Speaker 1: Nori had a hell of a year last year. I

477
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: like him on hard courts which are a little you know,

478
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: especially like the grainy ones that take the spin a

479
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: little bit more for him, the lefty game off the court.

480
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: But I think he just will get hit through. He

481
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: gets hit through on the clay court for me, too

482
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: much hatching off the consistency isn't there you touched on it.

483
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: The only wild card here for me, and it would

484
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: have to would require an earlier, sooner rather than later.

485
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: Upset of Alcaraz would be your boy Kuorta. He's made

486
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: it deep at the French before, right quarter final, I believe,

487
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 1: or or fourth round.

488
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, he did a quarter.

489
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, played in a doll in it, so he's got

490
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: the experience here nobody else pretty much in this entire

491
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: quarter and also Fakina. But the serve doesn't is not

492
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 1: strong enough for me.

493
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, if we do get chalk here and it's

494
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: Verev Alaz six three six one in the Madrid finalz

495
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 2: did you catch that match?

496
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: Is the baseline game. Yeah, he was able to just

497
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: get the serve in and and that was in Madrid

498
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: at altitude, which is gonna greatly benefit guys with big

499
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 1: serves like out with like uh Zverev. So if Sasha

500
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 1: ever had a chance to you know, assert his game

501
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 1: and play well against Alcoraz, it would have been in Madrid,

502
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 1: which he's done in the past. A guy like team

503
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: who's owned Zverevon clay courts traditionally over their careers, Sasha

504
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 1: always got the best of him in Madrid. So to

505
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: see Alcarez come into Sasha's kind of best court, so

506
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: to speak, and murk him, I mean that was like

507
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: an hour long match. It was on and off in

508
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 1: a jiff. He was able to get the return back

509
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 1: on Sasha serves and as soon as it gotten to

510
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: an extended baseline rally, I mean it was Carlos just ruthless, hitting, brutal,

511
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: hitting left to right, you know, ending points up at

512
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: the net. It was just an onslaught. So I wouldn't

513
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: be quick to be backing Sasha with the prospect of

514
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: Sasha here. Ye.

515
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 2: One thing to keep it mind. You mentioned heavy conditions

516
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 2: and altitude. French open conditions can change daily based on

517
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 2: the weather. That's always something to keep in mind. If

518
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 2: it's like cold and rainy, then you know on clay,

519
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 2: it's gonna play a little heavier, a little slower, the

520
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: ball's picking up some of the class. If it's nice day, sunny,

521
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: it's gonna play a little quicker. Something to keep in mind.

522
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: But you're predicting. Now, Look a lot of times these

523
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: these slams on the men's side, chalk does hold over

524
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 2: the long run, and that's because there's less variance. Right,

525
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 2: you're playing best of five sets. There's a lot more

526
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 2: variance on the women's side, where it's best of three,

527
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: easier for upsets to happen. So you're predicting you're gonna

528
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: see the doll Djokovic and then the doll Alpharez. I mean,

529
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 2: that's amazing. Now that could work at Alcarez's favor. Nadal

530
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 2: has to get through Djokovic in a war, right, we're

531
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 2: talking about his fitness, and then Alcarez is sitting there

532
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 2: already beat it off this year, and that's that's who

533
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: we asked the concker. And if he wins that, then

534
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: I think this tournament is if the set?

535
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 1: Can I touch on that match quick?

536
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 2: Yeah?

537
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: So with the Nadal Alcarez when they played earlier this year,

538
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: I know Alcarez had a slip sometime in that second set,

539
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: but in my opinion, Nadal had already kind of gained

540
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: momentum of the match at that point. But he had

541
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 1: a six to one set against Alcarez, and not many

542
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: people have been able to like dominate Alcarez in a set.

543
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: So I will say that bodes well for RAFA fans,

544
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 1: just to be able to see that happen, because you

545
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: know that once he's on Chatrier in Paris, his level

546
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:51,959
Speaker 1: is going to be a hole. You got to have

547
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: that hope, as in the Dollphan, that he'll be able

548
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: to raise the level a lot in Paris. So we

549
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 1: saw he was able to play his game for a

550
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 1: bit against Alcarez in the past, Hopefully he could do

551
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 1: it for a longer period of time on Chatrier.

552
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,440
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553
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Speaker 2: Anything on the for first round matchups, or if you

583
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 2: want to go like all right, this potential second round

584
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 2: matchup I'm salvating, or anything jump out from ah just

585
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 2: a single match. Betting perspective.

586
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it was actually a match that was on

587
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: this morning, so I had a pretty good look at it.

588
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: Multchen against Fetti Korea. It's the match in it's going

589
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: to be the second round match for Novak on the

590
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: winner of that one. So Mulchen is on really, really

591
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: good form. He won a ton of matches last year,

592
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: mostly on clay. He's lefty. When he's playing well, he

593
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: protects his serve well. A nightmare to rally with from

594
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: the baseline because he's super quick left and right and

595
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: he gets everything back and can also hit winners beforehand

596
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 1: en back end. I love him. He was like it

597
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: was hovering around pick him today against Korea. He straight

598
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: set in him, even if you have to pay a

599
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: bit more juice. I can't see him losing in the

600
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: turnaround match, and he's gonna get Novak in the second round.

601
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: I'm not calling an upset here, but he can keep

602
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: it close. I don't know if it's an alternate spread

603
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: or in some shape or fashion, but I do want

604
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: to go on records saying I think Mulchan will have

605
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: an impressive match against Novak. I don't know how it

606
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: will look, could be wins the first set. Who knows,

607
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: keep an eye on Mulchan.

608
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, plus you could do like a plus games there.

609
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: So sometimes these big underdogs against the top seed, you

610
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 2: could play them like, you know, say plus eight and

611
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: a half games instead of you know, money line, but

612
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 2: when or you can bet him plus sets, say plus

613
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 2: eight and a half games. You know they lose six

614
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: four six four six four or even they get straight seted,

615
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: they hung around, you know, they lost by total six games.

616
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: You would catch that bat.

617
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: And it's it's pretty common for if any guys are

618
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 1: new to the tennis scene, for you're gonna you'll be

619
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: bugged out a bit because you'll see Novak typically price

620
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: in these first round matches at what stuck like minus

621
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: twenty five hundred or more.

622
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, more more.

623
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: Novak has a tendency of dropping for like first sets

624
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: of Grand Slams. I don't have a stat handy, but

625
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 1: it happens often where you'll hear him like he dropped

626
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: his set to Fushevich, and then you know in an

627
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: hour it's he's up two sets to one. But I'm

628
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: not sure if I see it with Yoshi and Shioka.

629
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: But Novak's susceptible early and early in Grand Slams. So

630
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: if you if you are feeling like you'd want to

631
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: go against him for whatever reason, do it sooner rather

632
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: than later, because once he kind of hits stride middle

633
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: of a tournament, towards the second week, he kind of

634
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: kicks on from there.

635
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the bottom half. Quarter three

636
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: yet Rude, who's Casper Rud? Who's a klay? Quarter? Right?

637
00:30:58,160 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: And they were. He was asked recently like, do you

638
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 2: offense be called a clay quarters says no, I mean

639
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 2: I'm really good on clay. That's my most comfortable surface.

640
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 2: He has seven titles on tour, six of them come

641
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 2: on clay. Pretty easy half of his quarter but he's

642
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 2: never been past the third round here at the French

643
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 2: opening four tries. He's not the greatest form like he's

644
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 2: he's played well in recently, but not very recently. He's

645
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 2: in the top half, then you have Sisipas in the

646
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: bottom half. He's just so consistent on clay. He made

647
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 2: the final last year. He also made the semis at

648
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 2: the Aussie earlier this year. I think he was the

649
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: draw winner. If he gets by Mussetti in the first round,

650
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 2: which is not an easy first round matchup. The other

651
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: seeds in his part of the draw, Chapo de Minar

652
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 2: and your boy Evans. I hope you don't make it.

653
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 2: You're gonna make a case of Vy. He's gonna get

654
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: through here. But sincey boss, he's just so consistent on Klay,

655
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: his game is made for it. Here's his losses this year,

656
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 2: Like he lost to Djokovic in the Rome final, he

657
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: lost Zverev in the Madrid semis, he lost to Alcarez

658
00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: in Barcelona quarters, and he won Monte Carlas. Like, it's

659
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: hard to see him getting upset or early, and he's

660
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: probably I think he comes out of this quarter and

661
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: look at odds of is it five to one? I

662
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 2: just wish I could get a little bit more on him.

663
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: Can Rude break through here finally to a Slam semi?

664
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 2: Is this sitsy Pos or any other names in here

665
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 2: that could make some noise because this is definitely a

666
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: wide open quarter. I think Sitsypos overall was the draw winner,

667
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 2: and he went from like six seven to one down

668
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 2: to like five to one as a result of that,

669
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 2: you know, top half being loaded. What do you see

670
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 2: here in quarter three?

671
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: What I see here is a pivotal match with potential

672
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 1: ripple effect. This is shap of Volove against Holger Run.

673
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: Both guys shot makers consummate shot makers. They go for lines,

674
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 1: flashy games, the types of guys that crowds at a

675
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: Grand Slam will get behind. And also them as players

676
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: the way they play similar to vavrinkas of passed, they

677
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: gained confidence as they go. Whoever comes out of that

678
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: first round match, Chapo or Rune has a good opportunity.

679
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: The draw shapes up for them. There's the double qualifier

680
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: slot and they're not too distant future potentially. And you

681
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: got guys like Evo, who's not a clay quarter. He

682
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: does well, he does okay in Madrid, but outside of

683
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: there you don't really worry about him. Names like Duckworth,

684
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: Sarun Delo, who doesn't have much Grand Slam experience at all.

685
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: The draw opens up down there. Obviously Sitsipas is hanging around.

686
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: But if you're looking for an outsider who could potentially

687
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: trouble Stephanos, I mean, if Schapo's like on form and

688
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: playing well and it's the fourth round, maybe maybe I

689
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: don't know, but like you said, I think the toughest

690
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: spot for Sisipas is likely that Mussetti first match. If

691
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 1: he's playing well, it could be one way traffic for

692
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: Stefanos if Mussetti's off his game. But you saw MUSSETI

693
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: go up two sets right to Novak last year. I

694
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 1: believe it was, so he's yeah of pulling off the upset.

695
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: I would wait and see though, because you'll still probably

696
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: get a good number even if Mussetti was to take

697
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: the first set, but you'll you'll probably get an idea

698
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 1: if it'll be a tight match or not early on.

699
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: How about your void Joe Willie who doesn't want to

700
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 2: match it forever, this is his last Slam, can he

701
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: pull off or a potential scare of Rude in the

702
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 2: first round for the French crowd.

703
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: You know, realistically, I think to beat Rude you have

704
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: to have like a good backhand, that's that's the path forward.

705
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: And Songa that like doesn't have a backhand, so he's

706
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: just himself.

707
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 2: I don't The last time you want to match was

708
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: like eight turnams ago against uh Simone. I think it's been.

709
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: On a hard court.

710
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 2: He was earlier. You know what a good bet might be?

711
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 2: What Songa first.

712
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 1: Set like a seven to six.

713
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's possible, like comes out fired off with the crowd,

714
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 2: his last hurrah, gets to a breaker, maybe a little

715
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: sentimental bet. So ultimately, do you have stuff coming out

716
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: of here?

717
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, if I had to go down the record, there

718
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: are a few players who like trouble Steph and they're

719
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: not in this quarter, so.

720
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: I would agree. And then in the fourth, the fourth quarter,

721
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 2: this is probably probably the most white up one. When

722
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: I was getting the draw, I wrote down Q four

723
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: and I was just naming the quarters, like, you know,

724
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 2: the top seed, like, hey, this is the this player's quarter.

725
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 2: This I wrote, this is the what the fuck? Quarter?

726
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 2: So you have rube Lev in the top half of

727
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 2: this quarter. The other seeds are are Paul Vasselspieli and

728
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 2: center centers. The most intriguing name in this quarter. Look,

729
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: Grubev made the quarters here in twenty twenty. It's got

730
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 2: a big game. I think our beef with him is

731
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: he doesn't really adjust, which is like kind of limits

732
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 2: his ceiling against the top tier players, especially in like

733
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: a five setter. But in the we'll get to him.

734
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 2: In the bottom half, you have Medvedev, who's in no

735
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 2: form whatsoever. He doesn't like clay, and he's the things

736
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 2: he's saying going into the tournament are not very promising.

737
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 2: And you know he lost to Gascuae in Geneva after

738
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: returning from hernia surgery. It's not fully fit right now.

739
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: He also hasn't had much success here. He did get

740
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 2: to the quarters last year, but before then he lost

741
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: in the first round every other year that he's been here.

742
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: You didn't have a win prior to last year.

743
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rublev is not in great form either, like not

744
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 2: like this, He's not you're not looking at his game

745
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: right now being like wow. But he did be Djokovic

746
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: for the Belgrade title. So I'm not sure what to

747
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 2: make of this this quarter. It's you know, Cinner made

748
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 2: the quarters here in twenty twenty. What do you make

749
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: of his game? And what is his best surface? What

750
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 2: is his ceiling? Sometimes you look so good, I mean

751
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 2: that the the tools are there. Could Sinner come out

752
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: of this? I mean, because it just looks like this

753
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,240
Speaker 2: is a very vulnerable or you got Keikmanovich.

754
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 1: So so speaking on Cinner for a Sinner. For me,

755
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 1: Sinner is susceptible and vulnerable against pushers of course, and

756
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: guys that rally stamina, high rally stamina or rally talerance,

757
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call him, that part of his

758
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: like even Al. You look at a guy like Alchoriz,

759
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:53,919
Speaker 1: he could I feel like he can rally for days,

760
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 1: whereas a guy like Cinner, if he's not really imposing

761
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 1: his game after a while, I have a feeling he's

762
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: gonna error out. The good thing about his quarter here

763
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: is that the main threat. Honestly, you remove Medvedev and

764
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 1: you look to ruby Lev. He's played well against him

765
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: the last two matches. I think it is he's able

766
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: to out hit an outlast in rallies because ruby Lev

767
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: is a slightly more impatient player. So if Sinner goes

768
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 1: out early, I kind of look to ruby Lev or Kesmanovitch.

769
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 1: But if if it gets to Cinner and ruby Lev

770
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: playing each other, I do like Sinner to get out

771
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 1: of this quarter. But Kesmanovich is right there too, is

772
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 1: right there.

773
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 2: He probably has the most value from a betting perspective.

774
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: Hundred percent in terms of value, one hundred percent, you.

775
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 2: Had to win this quarter, or if you want to

776
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 2: take a fly on the future and then maybe edge later.

777
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 2: But I think maybe looking at him from a quarter perspective, which,

778
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 2: by the way, with Ciner, which two part question, which

779
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 2: surface do you prefer him on? And then is he

780
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,240
Speaker 2: winning slams in his career? Like what is the ceiling?

781
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 2: What is holding him back?

782
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: Still really young, He's still really young, but I think

783
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 1: I think his best surface is like a slow hard court,

784
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 1: maybe indoor hard or like a US Open type bat

785
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: US Open a few years ago. It's playing really quick lately,

786
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: but slow hardcourt.

787
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 2: And is he winning slams in his career?

788
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I think he'll win slams. I think he

789
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 1: if you watched him when he was playing challengers and

790
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 1: super young, because I've been watching since he was like seventeen.

791
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: When he was seventeen, I had my doubts about just

792
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,399
Speaker 1: period him being a success on the tour. His game

793
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 1: has come so much in the past two years and

794
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 1: then in a year. So I trust that he's got

795
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 1: the right team around him. And he's got a really

796
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 1: good team, and you know, people like shared Pova take

797
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 1: interest in him, So he's got a He's surrounded himself

798
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: by good players and good people. So I expect him

799
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: to keep going upward in this game.

800
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 2: All right, Bottom we have the draw. Anything stick out

801
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 2: from a matchup perspective.

802
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: Maybe not first round, but let's say Medvedev gets through

803
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 1: Bagness and Jeda gets through Barancas. That's all all systems

804
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: go on Jeda against Medvedev. If you remember, if you

805
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 1: were able to catch some of those Novak return matches,

806
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: they played a really tight match. Jeda had Novack up

807
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 1: against the Ropes not too long ago in Belgrade. Good player,

808
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: solid player, backs up. His serve, backhand is strong, huge

809
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 1: forehand returns well. So I like Jeta in a potential

810
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 1: second round match against Medvedev.

811
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: All right, wrapping off the men's side, then give me

812
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 2: your futures that you think or you have bet, and

813
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 2: then your prediction. I'm gonna say the only bet that

814
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 2: I know that I'm gonna make so far is I'm

815
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: gonna hunt for a good number on Tittipas. I just

816
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 2: think with his that quarter, he's so consistent on clay.

817
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 2: There's questions with all the other guys are gonna be

818
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 2: fighting each other in that top half. I wanted a

819
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 2: little better than five to one, but he's who I'm

820
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 2: looking at from a futures perspective, and I'm going to

821
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 2: take a shot on Keikmanovitch to win the quarter, and

822
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 2: then my prediction, I'm gonna say alcra beats the winner

823
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 2: of Djokovic Sindal after a war and then loses the

824
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 2: City Boss in the final. So that's my prediction. How

825
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,919
Speaker 2: about your prediction in futures, we know that you're probably

826
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: gonna say the Donald is gonna win it.

827
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: It's more ironic than that. I actually have my only

828
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 1: like bet that I'll serve up is Keatsmanovich to win

829
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 1: that that quarter. I think there's a ship ton of

830
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: value there. I actually have Carlitos beating Nadal and then

831
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,879
Speaker 1: beating Citypass in the final, so same final. I see

832
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: it the different way. I I've seen this similar spot

833
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,760
Speaker 1: with Carlos. I literally watched him beat Nadal and Novak

834
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: in back to back days and somehow look better on

835
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 1: the third day.

836
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 2: He's beating the doll though at the French in your

837
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 2: first semi back in that up, that's.

838
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: He's an alien. He's an alien, but.

839
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 2: You're still taking the doll. You said at plus three fifty, right,

840
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 2: you just have to have a principle.

841
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, but I'm gonna take both.

842
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kakmana that I think for that quarter, I think

843
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 2: is a really good bet. All right, there you have it. Yeah,

844
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna, I'm gonna I'll throw some I'll try to

845
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 2: find a good number, but i'll throw someone titsypas to win.

846
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 2: It'll be my horse here. All right, let's let's quickly

847
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 2: touch on the women's side. The women's side. Look, there's

848
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 2: no Serena here. Looks like some of the old French

849
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 2: opens where you have iguess fintech. Who's unstoppable right now? Ken,

850
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: She's won twenty eight straight matches on tour. I think

851
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: the record is Serena like in the mid thirties, back

852
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: in like two thousand, She's unstoppable. This is Clay's also

853
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 2: her best surface. She was minus two hundred recently minus

854
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 2: two hundred to win. She's now down. I've seen her

855
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 2: like minus one ten, minus one twenty. So she's basically

856
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 2: just like even money, a little maybe a little favorite

857
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 2: over the field value.

858
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: We have half value of a lifetime.

859
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 2: Well, here here's the here's the thing. Now, she's what

860
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 2: twenty eight matches in a round. She's looked dominant in

861
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 2: most Her quarter has some potential land mines. Now, Egan's

862
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 2: playing so well that I think the only way that

863
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 2: you're gonna beat her Now, I gonna remember it's still

864
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 2: three sets, right, Like you come out and you're just

865
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,760
Speaker 2: looking at all. Someone takes the first set and then nerves.

866
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 2: It's why there's yeah, there's nerves, and it's why there's

867
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 2: so much more variance on the women's side. I mean,

868
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 2: you have freji Kova, who wanted here. You've seen, you've

869
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: seen wild cards when women's slams, you've seen, you've seen qualifiers.

870
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 2: Yeah at Pink when Asta Pinka won it. There's women's side.

871
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 2: There's a lot more variants because it's three sets and

872
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 2: you just don't have as dominant serving usually. Look so

873
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 2: Help's ten to one. But Halpe has questions, right, she

874
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 2: said that she's you know she how fitted she? You

875
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: know you have people like that. There's a lot of

876
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: the big name Muka Rutos, you know, the back injuries,

877
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 2: not in good form. But you have Halps ten to one.

878
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 2: Frechie Kova is fourteen to one. Bodosa I haven't liked

879
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 2: how she's looked recently, but she's seventeen to one. Osaka,

880
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 2: who I've never really fancy on clay. I don't think

881
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 2: she's ever been past the third round at the French Open.

882
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 2: It's just she's gonna get to the almost every final

883
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 2: in the hardcore when she's on form, she's twenty to one.

884
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:04,399
Speaker 2: Jabbor is probably the second most interesting name, and she's

885
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:09,280
Speaker 2: thirteen to one. She's looked phenomenal. You know Ashbarti retired

886
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,240
Speaker 2: as the number one. She kind of gives Ashbarti vibes

887
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 2: with her variety and the confidence, and she's also is

888
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 2: hitting with a lot of power and confidence. Now she's

889
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 2: looked great. Sakari sixteen to one, Lucar Rutha twenty to one. Sablenka,

890
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:26,800
Speaker 2: who looks just she's lost our sky check, which he

891
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 2: gainst the finals. But when she's on her game, that

892
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,959
Speaker 2: power is going to play, and they have Continent twenty

893
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 2: five to one. NaSTA Penka, who's twenty seven to one.

894
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: I mean, when she's on her game going for lines,

895
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 2: who knows, but she's in horrific form. Andreiscu thirty to one.

896
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 2: Ben Chicic, who won Charleston. I don't generally love her

897
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 2: game of klay, but she's playing a lot better on

898
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 2: clay this year. Forty to one, So it's a really

899
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 2: it's okay, is anyone gonna be IgA? So you look

900
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: at her quarter and all right, you got yu Strumska,

901
00:43:56,560 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: which might not be easy. Potential second round matchup sam

902
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 2: so no Nova is you know, potential third round matchup. Sansanova

903
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 2: is the last woman I believe to take a set

904
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 2: off IgA on clay, and that third round in the

905
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 2: third set, I went seven to five Hallup. You know,

906
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 2: if Halup finds it on clay, she's gonna be tough

907
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 2: to beat. She's there in that quarter. Ostapenka's in this quarter.

908
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 2: Pagoula is in this quarter, you know. And yeah, Plushkabo

909
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 2: I don't really believe in right now, Alexandrova, but the

910
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 2: top half specifically, and then especially when you with hall

911
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: Up there too. There's some land mines here, which is

912
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 2: why you've seen igaz odds go from minus two hundred

913
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 2: down to minus one ten. So I would think that

914
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 2: you would need like, you know, Halp on her a

915
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 2: game could maybe give IgA a run, or you need

916
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 2: someone that is just treeing like Ostapenka. But I don't

917
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 2: I don't know if Ostepega can actually get to the

918
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 2: fourth round. You know she'd have to get through hal

919
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 2: up to to faced Igga, but can you Shremska Tree

920
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 2: for two sets? Yeah, So like that's what that's what

921
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 2: needs to happen. And there's like enough intriguing names in

922
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 2: this quarter that I'm I'm not laying it, but I'm

923
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 2: also not taking all. I'm not going against IgA. I

924
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: think she's playing so well that the way that I'm

925
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 2: approaching this, you have to take one name. This is

926
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: kind of this the draw here kind of mirrors the

927
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 2: men's side, and the top half is a lot stronger

928
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 2: than the bottom half. I think here, if you just

929
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 2: love Igga and e've ben riding or go for it,

930
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 2: and you just minus one ten you say she's not

931
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 2: gonna be don't blame me. It's kind of like your

932
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 2: stance on on Rafa. It's all, well, she's playing right

933
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 2: now and this is her best surface. But I'm taking

934
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:28,919
Speaker 2: one name in the bottom half as a long shot

935
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 2: in the women's side and riding with her. And that's

936
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 2: and I love the draw, but I already bet it beforehand,

937
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 2: and that's Cosakina fifty five to one. I saw some

938
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: fifty to one still out there I actually really like

939
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,439
Speaker 2: her draw. I mean she's in the bottom half, she's

940
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 2: in Badoza's quarter and we love Look, she had match

941
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,760
Speaker 2: point against Jibor. The problem is and that was brutals.

942
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 2: We both better like plus two fifty close, like plus

943
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 2: one fifty. I've always loved Cosakina's game on clay. I

944
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,879
Speaker 2: said she's gonna win Multipo French opens. She she came

945
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 2: on tour as a young Balkan, was dominating, winning tournaments,

946
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 2: and then she kind of lost her head. She had

947
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: a hire a psychologists and then her biggest problem is

948
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 2: her serve. Right she is, she is a pusher, a

949
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 2: elite defender her tennis, her clay IQ is phenomenal and

950
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 2: she's gonna get everything back. But her serve can let

951
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 2: her down in the biggest moments. She just doesn't, especially

952
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 2: your second serve. I mean she's gonna lob it in

953
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: at like thirty miles per hour. It's it's ugly if

954
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 2: you need her to have a serve in a big moment,

955
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 2: which petrifies me. Like I see her like in the

956
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 2: final trying to serve out aggrets.

957
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 1: I've seen in that match versus JABORI second serve didn't.

958
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,240
Speaker 1: It didn't make it to the net. It bounced before

959
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: the net. A second serve, you'll.

960
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 2: Have to break. She'll have to break to win a slam.

961
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually literally came to that realization. She couldn't.

962
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 2: She should.

963
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: She could never win a third set unless she was

964
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 1: serving first and had and could break.

965
00:46:57,960 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 2: Or it gets to the breaker, and she probably the

966
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,439
Speaker 2: to get to the breaker. But I love her game

967
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 2: on clay, and I think she's coming in really confident

968
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 2: and she's probably in as good a form as I've

969
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 2: seen her in a long time. And so I take

970
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 2: a fifty to one in the bottom half in a

971
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 2: very manageable draw, especially early on. I think she can

972
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 2: build some momentum. She's been pretty consistent slams lately, like

973
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,280
Speaker 2: she hasn't been getting upset in like the first round.

974
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 2: I love her draw, I love her form, I love

975
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 2: her game. I'm obviously by it's just I'm always so

976
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 2: much higher than everyone on Cosakina. The potential is there,

977
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 2: it's the serve is just like holding her back. But

978
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 2: I think she's close and I could see her making

979
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 2: a deep run here you hope for chaos elsewhere. It's

980
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 2: coming she's gonna win this one of these years, and

981
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 2: once she does, then you'll she'll never be fifty to

982
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 2: fifty five to one ever again. And at that price

983
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 2: in the bottom half, that's who I'm rolling with. What

984
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the overall women's draw other than

985
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 2: you're other than you're gonna beat You're gonna fade Muka

986
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 2: Rutha in the first round, right yeah?

987
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: I am yeah, banger spot, But I hate it, man,

988
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 1: I hate that being boring about this. I think it's ego.

989
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 1: I think it's ego and it's not all that close.

990
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:14,280
Speaker 1: But obviously I contradict myself because of all the spots

991
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: that I'll probably end up betting, it'll be like Yastremska

992
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 1: from a set down against Ego, because that's the only

993
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 1: way Eagle loses, in my opinion, is a complete meltdown.

994
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 1: So if that's gonna happen, and you want to sprinkle

995
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: a little bit, it's gonna happen. It could happen against

996
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 1: Yastremska because she's the type of player when she's hitting

997
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 1: the ball confidently, and this could happen in the match.

998
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: She could lose the first set one to six something

999
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 1: could click in the second set, and she can take

1000
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 1: the racket out of the opponent's hands. The only one

1001
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 1: that I mean. Ega is the most athletic player probably

1002
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 1: on the entire tour in terms of defending and stuff,

1003
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 1: and Yusts could probably hit therough. I worry about it

1004
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 1: on this type of clay, like we talked on earlier,

1005
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:56,879
Speaker 1: she probably needs it to be like a day match

1006
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: where the ball will be pinging through the court and

1007
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 1: not so much one of these night kind of heavy

1008
00:49:01,960 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 1: conditioned slogs on center court. But outside of Ega getting

1009
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:08,439
Speaker 1: upset in that first round, I don't think Asta Penka

1010
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 1: is gonna be there in the fourth round. I don't

1011
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 1: think Hallip stylistically will trouble Srian Tech. So it's Ego

1012
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: for me. I'll be on Ega.

1013
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 2: Take a look at the bottom half. You're not gonna

1014
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 2: join me and Dasha at fifty five to one. She can't, dude,

1015
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 2: I'm about the winner quarter. She can't serve out matches.

1016
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 2: How about the winner quarter.

1017
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:30,720
Speaker 1: That's still five matches.

1018
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 2: Throw out a name in the bottom half.

1019
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 1: Then, is Jibor down there?

1020
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have Jibbor, So in Jabor's quarter. Not an

1021
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 2: easy quarter. I mean her top half, you have right

1022
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 2: a Kona who's won a slam, but she's not grateful

1023
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 2: when she's dealing with kind of nagging injuries. Then you

1024
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: have the old the old guard caved of and curber

1025
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 2: of the other seeds. So that's in the top half

1026
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:58,320
Speaker 2: of that draw. In the bottom half, you know, you

1027
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 2: got Sakari and Benchic, also Laila Fernandez and then Anissa Mova.

1028
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 2: That's a loaded bottom half of that quarter. Yes, trying

1029
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 2: to figure out who comes out of that. And then

1030
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 2: Osaka is there too, I mean Osaka Nissa Mova. I

1031
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 2: think Ova beats her in the first round. By the way,

1032
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 2: there might be some value there, but that's your Martich

1033
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 2: there too. There's some and is also in that in

1034
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: that court, in that bottom half of that quarter. The

1035
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 2: bottom half of this quarter, Jabor's quarter, Benchic and Driscu,

1036
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 2: martych Fernandez, Anissa Mova, Osaka, Sakari, Mukhova. It's loaded.

1037
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: Even some of the the deep cut names, they're tough too.

1038
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 2: It's hard to see anyone beating Jabor before she gets

1039
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 2: to the quarters. Figuring out who comes out of that

1040
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 2: bottom half though, I don't know. That's why I immediately

1041
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 2: went to.

1042
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 1: It's gotta be Ava's time. No, it's not going to

1043
00:50:57,680 --> 00:50:58,280
Speaker 1: be Sakari.

1044
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see in a Samova you also have

1045
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 2: contiv it her quarter. Mertens Coco Goffa, who we haven't mentioned.

1046
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 2: Mukauta is just not in great form. Azarenka, your girl Teichman. Sorry,

1047
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 2: creji Kova, that's a pretty wide open draw to me,

1048
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 2: if you want to take a shot in the bottom half.

1049
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 2: I think I said before that Cosaquina Bodosa quarter is

1050
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 2: not in the same half. It's not the same They're

1051
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 2: not the same quarter as I.

1052
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: Oh I like coming out of that quarter. I think

1053
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 1: that's don't trust her, love her on the clay.

1054
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: I don't trust Sorry, but all right, I think you

1055
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 2: could take a shot Kekmanovich to win the quarter. Scotti

1056
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,839
Speaker 2: is rolling with the Spaniards to win. I'm going sisipas

1057
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 2: you're rolling IgA. You're saying no one's touching Egga as

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Speaker 2: they haven't in the last twenty eight matches. I don't disagree,

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Speaker 2: but I think there's value in Kosakina. We'll have tons

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Speaker 2: of content on Action network dot Com, the Action Work app.

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Speaker 2: Make sure you check that out. This is our first Titus,

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Speaker 2: We're gonna hopefully do this more often. Give us feedback

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Speaker 2: on what you liked, what you didn't, subscribe on subscribe,

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Speaker 2: leave a review if five star reviews really help us,

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00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 2: and if you want to leave some feedback there, like

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00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 2: what did you like to you ward, more first round

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Speaker 2: matchups you want, more tennis betting strategy. H This is

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00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: our first one, so obviously we're kind of just going

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00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 2: off of what we think you might want, but we

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00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 2: need your feedback and that'll help us. So thank you

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00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:28,360
Speaker 2: for listening and good luck with the French Open. You

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00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 2: can find us on Twitter throughout the tournament at Scottie

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00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 2: Pippen s c O T T I P I P

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00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 2: P E and and then myself at Stuck you too,

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00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening, good luck with your wagering.

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Speaker 1: Good luck cheers