1 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg weekly 2 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 1: market podcast. I'm Sarah Pontzec, a market supporter on the 3 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: Cross Asset Team, and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor 4 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg. On this show, we'll speak with expert guests 5 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: from inside Bloomberg and beyond to break down what's moving stocks, bonds, currencies, 6 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 1: and commodities, and how each asset class is affecting the others. 7 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: On the show, this week, it's a tale of new highs. 8 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: The sp finally took out its previous September record, the 9 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 1: US dollar is also at the highest levels of the year, 10 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: and the oil rally just can't seem to be tamed. 11 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: The question, Mike, is if all of that can continue? 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: That is the question, of course, and I'm happy to 13 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: say our two guests will give us the exact answer 14 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: to that question, right or intend to pinpoint where the 15 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: markets that war as you here is Chris nag, executive 16 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: editor at Bloomberg, and he will tall us the exact 17 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: date and time that the bowl market will end. Is 18 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: that right, Chris? I have that information, but you have 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: to you have to wait until later in the show. 20 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: Also joining us lup Kawa of the cross As Team. 21 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: Luke has been very busy Europe in Canada recently. Right, 22 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: I was indeed up in the coldest G seven capital 23 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: a great, great time in in Ottawa, in rainy Ottawa 24 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: watching the Leafs lose in Game seven and having my 25 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: heartbroken again. Okay, well we'll avoid that topic from that case, Lukawa, 26 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 1: what caused this record in stocks this week? It's great 27 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: when you have a stock market that is actually just 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 1: a handful of stocks, as as the name would suggest. 29 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:46,559 Speaker 1: But more and more this rally has become a concentrated phenomena, 30 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: and you know, you could point out that this is 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: a source of weakness or a potential vulnerability, just that 32 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: you know, a few tech heavyweights are essentially doing the 33 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: heavy lifting, empowering it higher. But then you have Facebook 34 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: and Microsoft, two of those tech heavyweights just you know, 35 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: absolutely killed on earnings and do exactly what people expect 36 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: them to do with stocks in terms of Facebook top 37 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 1: line growth, and you know, not getting their business model 38 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: up ended by regulators and instead just saying, you know, 39 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: the three billion, five billion cost of doing business. And 40 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: then Microsoft the cloud, just showing that that business is 41 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: a structural growth business and not kind of having the 42 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 1: decline people might have thought in the fourth quarter. So 43 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: really it's just a story of you know, just the 44 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: heavyweights are the heavyweights. They've really taken over and they've 45 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: given us less reason to dope them. So to dial 46 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 1: it back a bit, it was back on Tuesday when 47 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: the sp finally hit those highs, it was that was 48 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: the magic number. And Chris, of course there are always 49 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 1: bowl and bear cases to be made, but why don't 50 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 1: you walk us through what are the reasons that bulls 51 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 1: are coming out now and saying why this can keep going? Yeah, 52 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: I mean the obvious, the most obvious answer to that 53 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: is that the FED remains incredibly uh friendly to the market. 54 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: It's not going to do anything this year. It got 55 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: like everyone else traumatized it end of at the end 56 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: of two thousand eighteen, and it's basically vowed to sit 57 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: there as stocks continue to go up ten percent a 58 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: month or something or that seems to be basically their posture. 59 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: The other bowl cases, I mean, you can you can 60 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: ascribe it to a handful of tech heavyweights, fine, but 61 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: I also point out that those heavyweights are basically of 62 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: the NATS back one D. They're a good portion of 63 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: the SMP. There's still a kind you know, the same 64 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: thing that's driven the bull market for ten years, the 65 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: fact that there is an enormous amount of efficient earnings 66 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: production going on in the US economy, at least in 67 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: the mega cap publicly traded space, that it's just it 68 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: drowns out everything else. The margins remain incredibly fat, return 69 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: on whatever equity invested capital remains strong, and it's just 70 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: a hard train to get in the way of. And 71 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: then on the micro level, like you had the everyone 72 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: was worried about earnings recession, earnings estimate's coming in. We've 73 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: seen in the past week as more and more of 74 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,839 Speaker 1: the big ones report earnings, that you've actually seen full 75 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: year estimates start to firm a little bit, and the 76 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: second quarter estimates haven't been slashed anywhere near to the 77 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: same degree as the first quarters. That whole earnswer session thing. Oh, 78 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: it looks to be going the way of the only mammoth. 79 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: But yet, if you look at some of the earnings 80 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: out this week, I'm thinking of UPS and three M. 81 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 1: I mean, these are sort of year old cliche macro indicators. 82 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 1: You know, UPS is the the biggest, one of the 83 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 1: biggest shipping companies in the world. Three M is the 84 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: maker of fifty things. I think what we used to say, 85 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: you know, in the Bloomberg stories, is it safe to 86 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 1: ignore these? I mean, are people just assuming these are 87 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: idiosyncratic stories, company specific stories and not really the macro 88 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 1: indicators that maybe we we once thought they were. Um, 89 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: I think to some degree the SOB stories we've always 90 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 1: had around the market for the entire ten years. We've 91 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: also had bad eco growth for much of the or 92 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 1: not not bad, but middling equal eco growth for most 93 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: of the the bullmark, and people have been able to 94 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: live with it. So I agree those are a little concerning. 95 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: It's hard entire way to write stuff like that off 96 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: is idiosyncratic given the pervasiveness of their reach, those two companies. 97 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: And certainly you know something was being signaled at the 98 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: end of last year, regardless of the fact that it 99 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: got put away so quickly. I mean, that's what happens 100 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: when the FED utterly pivots on itself. But um, for 101 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:21,719 Speaker 1: the moment, I think you do have to kind of 102 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: give the benefit of the doubt to the idea that 103 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: this is not uncharacteristic of how it's always looked. There's 104 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 1: always been scattered blow ups going on, and then you 105 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 1: kind of have, you know, this scenario where along our 106 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: our last kind of leg higher march to all time highs, 107 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: you had healthcare really selling off and cyclical is absolutely 108 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: going haywire. So you had in the cyclicals defensive index, 109 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: you had essentially a huge parabolic move. And now what 110 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: we have, you know, just a rotation, a reversal of that, 111 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: and it's just another iteration of these protective rotations that 112 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: have protected the market because you know, nothing goes down 113 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: all at once except for you know, your February eighteen, 114 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: Andrew Q. I want to come back to talk of 115 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: profits recession just for a bit, because I know about 116 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 1: eight percent of companies are beating on earnings this quarter. 117 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: But still it seems like a lot of people are 118 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: talking about that hockey stick fourth quarter about a nine 119 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: percent gain. Does it seem like that is potentially more 120 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: reasonable to achieve now to bring this here into full growth. 121 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: I've never seen it as quite as odd as others. 122 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: It seems to me just to be more function of math. 123 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: There's sequential growth expected quarter by quarter by quarter, and 124 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: there's no real acceleration in the sequential quarter by quarter 125 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: by quarter growth that's expected for twenty nineteen. So this 126 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: is just more function to me of base effects. Where 127 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: where it gets weird is I I don't understand how 128 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: the margin story gets so much better in Q four 129 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 1: and and that's one thing that like this will not 130 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: become clear to me after the first quarter results or 131 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: the second quarter results, of the third quarter results. That 132 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: would be something I need to essentially see to believe 133 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: or have a lot more visibility, because I just can't 134 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: unpack and understand it. And yet so here we are 135 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: off to this amazing start to the year in stocks, 136 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: but the latest figures I've seen still indicate that money 137 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: is flowing out of stock funds UM and I don't 138 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: think hedge funds have really embraced this rally, you know, 139 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: based on some of the indicators we would use to 140 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: to uh sort of suss that out. Is this all 141 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: buy backs? I mean, is is buy backs the main 142 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: catalysts and any sort of threat to buy backs the 143 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: main risk to the to the EQUATIONY Well, first of all, 144 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: it's hard to imagine a threat to buy backs. I 145 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: just sort of story that Buffett may announce some extremely 146 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: high numbered buy backs next year. It's not that typical 147 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: that those actually go away until a recession happens. So 148 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: if the recession happens, it would be to some degree 149 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: the west of anyone's problems. I I don't necessarily fall 150 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: into the camp that buy backs are really that big 151 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: of a source of fuel for the for the rally. 152 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: I do what you're saying is absolutely right. This is 153 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: a totally unloved and flow less is the word now recovery. 154 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: But to a largic stent, that's part of the bull case. 155 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,559 Speaker 1: I would say, I mean stocks can go up. Stocks 156 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: went up two thousand nine, two thousand eleven with virtually 157 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: zero flows or or the opposite, and most for most 158 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: of the period. It really isn't necessarily the sole driver 159 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: of the market, this idea that money has to be 160 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: being thrown at it. What has to be happening is 161 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: people are driving harder bargains for to sell, and or 162 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: people just the people who are buying are more eager. 163 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 1: And right now there's a lot of people walking around 164 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: who would say the fact that hedge funds haven't participated, 165 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: the fact that et F flows have been relatively inn 166 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 1: emic relative to past peaks, like vastly less than September 167 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: and January is something that's yet to go right in 168 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 1: this market. And the really big bull cases, the sort 169 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 1: of melt up cases for two thousand nineteen or premised 170 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 1: on those facts coming out of slightly different perspective from 171 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: from the buy back story exact. I just think they're 172 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: so fundamentally important to preventing downside more than they are 173 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: to spurring upside. Just the idea that you know, a 174 00:08:57,840 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: lot of these are pre programmed and kind of out 175 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: of the hands of discretionary but the discretionary ones essentially like, 176 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: what what do we know about the structure of the market, 177 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: what do we learning que for QUE four? We learned 178 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 1: that liquidity is terrible in single stocks. That's why the 179 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: kind of long short tech de leveraging went absolutely awry. 180 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: We learned that futures market depth doesn't really exist, so 181 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 1: where is the cash bid for equities? That that to 182 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: me means that buy backs are the supporting factor in 183 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: markets that do prevent us from having these kind of 184 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: volatility spirals. So I don't think they're like I think 185 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: we'd maybe end up in the same place. But the 186 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: sharp ratios would be you know, a heck of a 187 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 1: lot worse without buy back. Can I just say one 188 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: thing about buy back? So there was just a note 189 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. They've got a huge amount 190 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 1: of attention with golden things saying that. You know, net 191 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: of issuance, you get about four billion dollars worth the 192 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: buy backs in the US market this year, and it 193 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: dwarfs all other net money that comes into the market 194 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,839 Speaker 1: at the same time. You look at Bloomberg data, something 195 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: like ninety trillion dollars worth of stock trades every or 196 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: in the US US sort of tagged stock market. So 197 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: four in a billion dollars of net cash at the 198 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: margin is certainly a lot of money, but it's a 199 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 1: drop in the bucket compared to an amount of stock 200 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: that goes back and forth every day. It's basically one 201 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: day's value traded um. It matters, certainly, and it's net 202 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: pure we net. It's easy to measure, but it doesn't 203 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: entirely take into account the gross buying and selling that 204 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: goes on in the market every day, basically people bringing 205 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: their their paychecks to the market and people cashing them out. 206 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 1: There's obviously ninety trillion arts with selling every year as well. 207 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 1: Um So framed like that, it's not quite as obvious 208 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: to me how how it single handedly juices the market. 209 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: So we're still likely to see buybacks in the near term, absolutely, 210 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: and there's still a lot of money on the sidelines 211 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: that it seems like could come in to propel this higher. 212 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: But what about the valuation case, Because the argument can 213 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: be made that tech stocks in particular are maybe looking expensive, 214 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: but you also have the handful of people, many people 215 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: out there pointing to interest rates saying well, they're low, 216 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: and if you're saying that stocks are expensive, you're missing 217 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: the whole point. Yeah. So I've been talking about this 218 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: for about ten days, which means I've been wrong for 219 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: ten days, and just looking at things like, you know, 220 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: the NASDAC one hundreds forward p premium to the SMP 221 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,559 Speaker 1: five hundred, that's essentially taken out its peak ratio of 222 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: NASDAC SMP again, taken out that peak high. It's since 223 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 1: the dot com bubble and then outright and the outright 224 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: things where I I really start to focus in on 225 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,839 Speaker 1: because when the forward p of the NASDACK gets to 226 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: twenty two, that's when things have tended to break. So 227 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: either you have to have the forward p in terms 228 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: of the earnings estimates really going up nicely right now, 229 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: or you should maybe see you know, the price, do 230 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: a little bit of work, maybe go a little sideways, 231 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: because we are not too far off from that level now. 232 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: But again, like I think Credit SUITEZ recently or or 233 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: socked in one of the one of those banks made 234 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 1: the case, made the case that you know, in the 235 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: melt up scenarios in which we are envisaging these kind 236 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: of valuation things, especially with high growth, names go completely 237 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: out the window, and it's a complete joke to even 238 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: cast any faith in this. This reminds me of a 239 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: good story you had out, Sarah. I love the headline, 240 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: all the stuff bears are saying to spoil the SMP 241 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: record party. Chris over here is laughing because the headline 242 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: was a baby of his something to blame. I could, 243 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 1: I could, I could have predicted that it. Yeah, well, 244 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: why is it that we can enjoy a record without 245 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: without seeing what these pesky bears have to say? Is 246 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 1: it just risk management or story? Well, when it comes 247 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: to the bear argument, there are a lot of bears 248 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 1: out there, and part of the argument is is just that, Okay, 249 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: yes we're back to those record highs, but we can't 250 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: sustain a seventent rally that we've seen this year at 251 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: the pace that we have seen it. They also point 252 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 1: to fourth quarter earnings, but the issue is first quarter 253 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: earnings has been a lot better than expected, and now 254 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: it seems like that is falling off the back end. 255 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: And then the valuation case. There are the bears out 256 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: there that will look at the market and tell you 257 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: that it does look expensive to them, and at this 258 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 1: point in time they would rather be taking profits than 259 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: throwing their money at this market. But look, one thing 260 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: I'm so happy about with with this all time high 261 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: and the one that we previously had in September, like 262 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: what was going on in September that screamed all time high? 263 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: Like where where? Where was the kind of euphoria? Where 264 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 1: was the dancing in the streets? Don't see it now either. 265 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: The only time I've seen anything this cycle that resembled 266 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: what I am told in all time high should look 267 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 1: like is January. I want another one of those blow 268 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: off tops. Yeah that was a great fun, Sarah. I'm 269 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: curious if any of these bears we're talking about two 270 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: things that are sort of on my mind. One is 271 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: the strong rallying dollar that we've seen, and also this 272 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: sort of creep higher in oil prices. Uh you know 273 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: West Texas interpetated oils in the neighborhood of what sixty six? There? 274 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: Is it? What we get to the point where we 275 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: have to worry about oil prices again? We're you know, 276 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: is this economy so leveraged to oil production that it's 277 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: it's the higher the better. So starting with oil, I 278 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: would say the majority of investors I've spoken, particularly in 279 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: this last week, they're not so worried about higher oil 280 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: prices because now you look at the US and we 281 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: are a net exporter of oil, and they say this 282 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 1: could actually benefit the U. S economy in a way 283 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: because of the businesses on the dollar component. I will 284 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: say I was speaking with someone this past week who said, 285 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: the dollar is now getting to levels that we are 286 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: getting concerned about, especially for some of these more multinational 287 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: companies that do a lot of their business overseas, because 288 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: this could harm them. You have a stronger dollar overseas 289 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: that could potentially mean lower sales are not as competitive 290 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: and you but you haven't really seen that like three 291 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: m a side during that happened, but you haven't really 292 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: seen that generally priced int equities like look at the 293 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: look at the pocket of US that we've been talking 294 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: about is underperforming the most recently, you know, the Russell persistently. 295 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: It should be a you know, domestic focus, a bigger 296 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: beneficiary of the strong dollar. Quickly. On the oil point, 297 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: it's been interesting just from a mathematical standpoint, the positive 298 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 1: correlation between changes in oil and changes in the s 299 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: pretty durn high. So that's actually it's actually been like 300 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: positively correlated, good contributor to the rally. But again on 301 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: the dollar side, the the fun thing is that it 302 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: does seem to be hurting the rest of the world. 303 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: If you look at you know, M S c I 304 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: all World x US and then you know, running correlations 305 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, you'll actually see that 306 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: the dollar strength is weighing on the rest of the 307 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: world equities. And a large part of that is just 308 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: this strait currency translation effect that it's having. You know, 309 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: those are price and local and then once you convert 310 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: into US, you know, you're you're fighting against the tide there. 311 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: But that's what I think is the interesting point because 312 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: we know generally a strong dollar is is not good 313 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: for the world. It tightens credit conditions globally, so I 314 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: can understand why oil prices are rising. It's really centered 315 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: around supply. This week was really peaked after the Trump 316 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: administration came out and said that they were going to 317 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: end the waivers as it relates to exports from Iran. 318 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: But when it comes to the dollar, I'm having a 319 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: bit harder of a time understanding just the momentum that 320 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: we continue to see. I mean, is this just another 321 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: re Ducks where everyone thought we would see a weaker dollar, 322 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: but maybe that's not the case exactly and almost for 323 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: the same reason. I think that if you look at 324 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 1: the strength in the equity market, like TDS economists and 325 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: TV strategists Mark McCormick, he's been on this for a 326 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: while saying essentially, if you think the US equity market 327 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: is going to outperform, if you think, you know, rate 328 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: spreads around the world are going to be fairly stable, 329 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: then portfolio inflows into US equities should be a driver 330 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: of the dollar. And I think it's it's a story 331 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: that fits for now, so I like it. I like 332 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: it too then Chris, are you worried about the dollar? No? No, 333 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 1: uh yeah, you see things like the three mble up 334 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 1: this week. You remember that it can it can do 335 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: damage the big profit edifice. But and and like Luke 336 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: was saying, it's uh the main sort of temperature taker 337 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: on financial conditions. So yeah, along with everything else, it's 338 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: a kind of a secondary concern. It's what about the 339 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: relationship between oil and energy stocks though, because you look 340 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: at crude up about this year. Energy can this kind 341 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: of just add to that bowl case in a way, right, 342 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: because energy hasn't been a huge particiption. I mean, energy 343 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: is up a lot of energy stocks. But yeah, right, 344 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 1: there's an argument that it hasn't caught up with with 345 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: oil yet. Um and you know, another one of these 346 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 1: basically arguments that some good things left to happen in 347 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: the market and that that's going to be energy stocks rallies. 348 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: Kind of difficult to get to be that disappointed. Look 349 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: at what happened recently. What was the It was Snovis 350 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: buying anti darko. If you look Abron Chevron, Chevron buying 351 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: anti Darko. So if you look at that, you know, 352 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: look at x l E. So you're more integrated players 353 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 1: and how they've done versus how x OP the producers 354 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: explorers have done. Look at that, track the oil price, 355 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: see the gap, and you know the transaction completely and 356 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: immediately makes sense. So I wonder if you know the 357 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 1: market will start to say, hey, you know we're gonna 358 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 1: be Chevron, We're gonna buy the producers, and I will 359 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 1: say there is an e t F that tracks oil 360 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: services companies and that et F is up more So 361 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,439 Speaker 1: you do see a difference when you dial in and 362 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: really look on these coming natural guess is not having 363 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 1: a great year, right so x and I'm SURES and 364 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: gigantic natural gas producer, Luke. You keep a pretty close 365 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: eye on volatility markets, and now with this rally its 366 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 1: all time highs. We see the VIX CBOE Volatility Index 367 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: at what about twelve and a half twelve and change, 368 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: but moving higher, but moving higher, training higher, but moving high. 369 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 1: I think that's been the most interesting development that's taken 370 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: place with the VIX as we kind of made this 371 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: martial all time highs. You'll remember that in January, uh 372 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: stocks up, valls up was a persistent common theme and 373 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 1: everyone was trying to make excuses for it and talk 374 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: around it, and then faultel the exploded, and uh, you know, 375 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: we realized that maybe that was a warning sign. Last 376 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 1: time we had stocks up falls up was June and 377 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 1: we got you know, like a three percent sell off 378 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: and the immediate aftermath. But this kind of this is 379 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: something I'm watching, as you know. It's a sign that 380 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: people are starting to either heade of this or wildly 381 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: chase upside. And from what I can tell, looking at 382 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: the implied volatilities of you know, out of the money 383 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 1: options on the SMP five, it seems more that the 384 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: downside being sought is the factory here. So folks, folks 385 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 1: are starting to get worried about this as we you know, 386 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: as we hit all time highs during earning season but 387 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: still have a supportive but definitely not stellar macro back. 388 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: You know what, another year follows up stocks up the 389 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 1: whole year, Right, I think people would take that they'd 390 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,640 Speaker 1: be willing to live with a fifteen or twenty ViXS 391 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: if they could get the We're not at that point 392 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eighteen where there's so much complacency. 393 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: People were selling the VIC shorting the VIS basically to 394 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: you know, pick up those nickels in front of the 395 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 1: steam roller. Do you get the sense that we're not 396 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,640 Speaker 1: due for repeat of that as the lesson been learned? Well, 397 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 1: I think just like a the products are gone, so 398 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: we can't we can't so that that can't happen. That 399 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: can't happen again. We can't have we can't have a repeat. 400 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: We we will not have a repeat. That just that 401 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: source of fire currently does not exist. But other other 402 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: factors are essentially a positioning. We've all talked about flow 403 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: less rally, that's something that augurs against a repeat. And 404 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 1: also just levels of realized are a little lower now 405 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: than they were in January, and levels have implied are 406 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: a little higher. Like the opposite dynamic, the volatility risk 407 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 1: premium is a lot higher. Now you can make a 408 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: lot You can assume you will make a lot more 409 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: money if you're selling ball now as opposed to when 410 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: you were selling ball. That was really the That was 411 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: a penny, that was not a dime in front of 412 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: the steam roller. One man's penny is another man's time 413 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 1: Canadian Canadian Canadian dollars, which brings us to you know 414 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: what time? It is craziest thing, Mike ever saw in 415 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,360 Speaker 1: markets this week. This is a segment that we will 416 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: be doing most every week, and Mike's going to come 417 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: to us and he's going to ask us what the 418 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 1: craziest thing we saw, and we have to come up 419 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,719 Speaker 1: with something better than him. Europe first, Chris so, I 420 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: liked the price action Wednesday morning before anyone was at 421 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: their desks and p G and E, which was when 422 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 1: it rose two and then retraced the whole thing in 423 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: five minutes after some industry journal reported that uh Warren 424 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: Buffett was going to buy them, and then he immediately 425 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 1: told Becky Quick on CNBC Didday that he that he wasn't. 426 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,199 Speaker 1: So I did. I did a little TSM on it, 427 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: and twelve and a half million dollars worth of stock 428 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: traded in that window and something like five shares, so 429 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: lots of winners and losers. Yeah, that's pretty good. I'm 430 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: not feeling too. I was away from the desk for 431 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 1: two days this week, so I'm gonna give myself a past. 432 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: But one thing I saw, and it happened on Thursday, 433 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 1: on Thursday morning, right out of the gate company. I 434 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 1: had never heard of it. Zero zero, So they were 435 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: tumbling ten per cent out of the gate. No one 436 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: could really figure out why. And it turns out that 437 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 1: apparently people were, you know, they were thinking they were 438 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 1: going to get acquired relatively soon. But the company had 439 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 1: set up meetings at a conference and a couple of months, 440 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: and then investors assumed, Hey, I guess that means they're 441 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: not going to sell themselves by then, and you know, 442 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 1: people have freaked out, and the stock was down ten 443 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: percent assumption at its best, but that logic governs. I 444 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 1: mean people that those those those conference meetings. I was 445 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: trying to pretend this wasn't crazy. Probably probably reported the 446 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: thing about the conference. Anyway, Sarah, what craziness have you 447 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: witnessed this week? I'm gonna go with Tesla, and not 448 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: because it's stock is down around the lowest level, but 449 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: because just ahead of their earnings the day before this week, 450 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 1: Elon Musk came out on stage at a conference and 451 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: said that they are going to have completely autonomous robotaxis 452 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 1: potentially on the road within a year. That was pretty crazy, 453 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: all right. I got a couple of crazy things. The 454 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 1: first one all this hype about gen Z. It makes 455 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: me nervous for one reason. Why is that Generation Z 456 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:26,120 Speaker 1: that's the last letter. You've seen table, you've seen table. 457 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,360 Speaker 1: The next The next generation is Generation Alpha. I can 458 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: tell you that. Okay. And all this mystery about oh, 459 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,479 Speaker 1: they're spending habits, I'll tell you where they're spending habits 460 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 1: come from. I'm the father of three gen Z kids. 461 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: It's all me. Yeah, but that's not spending habits. What's 462 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: a good allowance these days? That depends how they keep 463 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: the room clean and all that. And what's the dollar 464 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: figure twenty a week or so? No, Wow, that's high 465 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: that they milk a lot more off you than that, 466 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: believe me. Alright, craziest thing I've ever seen. And I'm 467 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: confessed this is not directly related to markets, but it's 468 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: pretty close. I love the sec settlements with some hedge 469 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: fund manager who gets in trouble, and we always do 470 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 1: a great job of saying, Okay, he stole x million 471 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: from clients, but the question always is what did he 472 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: spend it on? So this guy in Massachusetts got in 473 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: trouble for ripping off his clients and buying Taylor Swift 474 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: tickets with it. Luke, I feel like that's get behind 475 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: that's that's he didn't buy Taylor Swift tickets. He invested. 476 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: That is an appreciating asset. It's not a bad trade. 477 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: If you get him my book value and face value 478 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 1: and some before the show. It might be the largest 479 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 1: Taylor Swift fan out And it is amazing because you know, 480 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 1: right now, essentially as as we're going live, this is 481 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: this is FO six, this is the big day. I'm sure, 482 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: I'm sure everyone else has been following Taylor Swifts. Can't 483 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: count down on our Instagram too. We don't know what's coming. 484 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,120 Speaker 1: We we know it's big. Hopefully it's not an engagement, 485 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 1: but maybe a new music video or something like Hopefully, Sir, 486 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: I think that's got to be all the time we have. 487 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,439 Speaker 1: We have to leave it there. But Luke Kawa, Taylor 488 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: Swift enthusiasts, and Chris Nangi, thanks so much for joining 489 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: us today. Thanks my pleasure. What Goes Up will be 490 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 1: back next week. Until then, you can find us on 491 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal website and app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 492 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,360 Speaker 1: you listen. We'd love it if you took the time 493 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: to rate and review the show so more listeners can 494 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 1: find us. And you can find us on Twitter, follow 495 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: me at at Sara Ponzeck. Mike is at Reaganonymous, our 496 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 1: guest Chris Nagi is at Chris nag One, and Luke 497 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: Kawa is at l J Kawa. What Goes Up is 498 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,119 Speaker 1: produced by tober Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is 499 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,959 Speaker 1: Francesco Leafy. Thanks for listening, See you next time.