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Speaker 2: Waterhouse Coopers right now Coopers in Live at You know,
Speaker 2: we remember it as well. Lexis crow darkins the dirt
Speaker 2: this morning. What does your shop say about the capitalization
Speaker 2: the options of big tech? They feel like they're playing
Speaker 2: by their own rule book because of their profitability, because
Speaker 2: they're young turks out in San Francisco and all that.
Speaker 2: But what does PwC say about the bond issuance or
Speaker 2: the stack buyback? I mean, just just continue.
Speaker 3: Thanks so much Tom for having me.
Speaker 4: I think in that realm credit conditions are pretty easy,
Speaker 4: and what we hear from a lot of investors and
Speaker 4: developers is that these are top tier borrowers, so there's
Speaker 4: no concern about mounting piles of leverage.
Speaker 5: How about mounting piles of one hundred dollars oil and
Speaker 5: the impact that has on the global economy. Is it
Speaker 5: a short term blip? You guys aren't too concerned about it,
Speaker 5: or are you reworking your models and thinking about GDP
Speaker 5: and inflation that kind of thing.
Speaker 3: Paul, thanks so much. I mean, this is not Russia Ukraine.
Speaker 4: This is the largest shock that we've had to the
Speaker 4: global energy system since nineteen seventy nine. At that time,
Speaker 4: as we know, oil doubled in value, and we're headed
Speaker 4: that way again.
Speaker 3: Appreciate what the former gentlemen said.
Speaker 4: I would say that, yes, effects of this will be localized,
Speaker 4: but in the United States there are downstream impacts. So
Speaker 4: we think about that growth in America right now is
Speaker 4: overwhelmingly tilted toward the investment spend in AI. And where
Speaker 4: do the semicon chips come from that go into fabrication
Speaker 4: of AI and data centers. They come from South Korea.
Speaker 4: Where does South Korea's oil come from? It comes from
Speaker 4: the Middle East. So there are long term implications of
Speaker 4: what's happening, even the downstream impacts of fertilizers here in
Speaker 4: the US as we come into the planting season.
Speaker 2: Do you do your research not to us or you
Speaker 2: have minions that do this for me? My god, what
Speaker 2: a fabulous research. Now? Thank you get that from Price
Speaker 2: Waterhouse Coopers. Folks, as you can. PW. See. I love
Speaker 2: your first chart about the multinationalization of American companies. We
Speaker 2: still to this day underplay that, don't we Yep.
Speaker 3: So that's it.
Speaker 4: Fifty three point six percent of the revenue of the
Speaker 4: tech portion of the S and P five hundred is
Speaker 4: earned overseas, which means that again, those companies that we're
Speaker 4: all relying on in terms of prosperity in America are
Speaker 4: not immune to slowing growth overseas?
Speaker 2: Are they international stocks? Where I don't need to diversify
Speaker 2: Internet nationally. I can just buy Apple because they're everywhere.
Speaker 4: I would still I would still bank on diversification and
Speaker 4: getting into European baskets and Asian baskets.
Speaker 2: And we've seen that say that.
Speaker 4: Of course, the outperformance of the SCI has been pretty impressive.
Speaker 2: Yes, So.
Speaker 5: How do we start adjusting our GDP models. I mean,
Speaker 5: we just had Delta come out today. He said it
Speaker 5: took a four hundred million dollar higher fuel costs just
Speaker 5: in the month of March. So this really is hitting
Speaker 5: the economy. Is this going to materially slow the economy
Speaker 5: or is it again? Is it something maybe they can
Speaker 5: power through?
Speaker 4: Well, it'll be interesting to see what the FED says
Speaker 4: with it's SEP coming out, generally, I think you would
Speaker 4: say it's they'll they'll, they'll bank on. It's something you
Speaker 4: can look through, right in terms of GDP growth, because
Speaker 4: again this fallacy is that AI is insulated from the
Speaker 4: rest of kind of policy shocks in the glory. Nevertheless,
Speaker 4: I would say the US consumer is super price sensitive
Speaker 4: when it comes to the price they pay it the pump.
Speaker 2: Ye.
Speaker 4: And we're coming into the summer driving season, so larger
Speaker 4: share of income will go toward transportation.
Speaker 3: And with oil where it is dieseled.
Speaker 4: Today in California six and a half, that's going to
Speaker 4: put pressure on the purse.
Speaker 2: I was thunderstruck by the price of diesel in Phoenix
Speaker 2: like ten days ago. I mean, I think there's not
Speaker 2: been enough said PA. I think about refinery products.
Speaker 3: Correct, especially California.
Speaker 2: Gas oil fuel oil is looking at you know, the
Speaker 2: way they go from the chemistry of oil in the
Speaker 2: naphtha into ethyline in that I mean the petrochemical business.
Speaker 2: What does Priced water House Cooper see of that?
Speaker 4: Well, So it's interesting just thinking about some of these
Speaker 4: down down, you know, refined products you have Saudi Arabia
Speaker 4: can get some of these refined products from the East
Speaker 4: Coast over to the West Coast and the Red Sea
Speaker 4: to Jason and too Yanbu. But that's going to be
Speaker 4: a logistical overhaul. Its something that the Finance Minister actually
Speaker 4: prioritized prior to all of this, as they would focus
Speaker 4: on logistics.
Speaker 3: And here they are.
Speaker 4: They're going to have to do that. You can get
Speaker 4: fertilizers out that way as well. But in any given
Speaker 4: year in the United States, farmers rely on forty percent
Speaker 4: imports to make up the area and fertilizers, so this
Speaker 4: will be a I.
Speaker 2: Think it's way under play conty. We're all looking together,
Speaker 2: Gus and I'm sorry, it's way more complicated than that.
Speaker 5: Correct, And I don't see how this is anything but
Speaker 5: a political head wind for this administration. I'm just surprised
Speaker 5: this from a political perspective, given that affordability has become
Speaker 5: a gigise and.
Speaker 2: It's massively global. It's amazing how we don't want petro
Speaker 2: chemicals in America, so they're over somewhere else where we
Speaker 2: don't have to worry about it. Alexis crow or this
Speaker 2: partner chief economist at PwC, Paul Sweeney with doctor Crowe.
Speaker 5: So what do you expect how do you expect the
Speaker 5: Fed tomorrow to comment about this? Do you expect them
Speaker 5: to comment directly? And how do you think they will
Speaker 5: kind of adjust for this?
Speaker 4: Well, I think it'll be I think the main thing
Speaker 4: that market participants will looking for is if they're going
Speaker 4: to give any guidance on whether there will be rate
Speaker 4: cuts in the future. Obviously you can expect them to
Speaker 4: hold pause tomorrow. I think you've seen some of the
Speaker 4: voting members move from two cuts to one, in which
Speaker 4: case I would say, I mean the other side of
Speaker 4: things is there's still this rich debate within the FED
Speaker 4: right now as to whether or not you focus on
Speaker 4: the inflation part and price stability of the dual mandate,
Speaker 4: or whether or not you focus on the labor market.
Speaker 4: You've had some actually highlighting that what Austin Golesby calls
Speaker 4: the four horsemen in the employment market is actually quite strong.
Speaker 4: So looking beneath non farm payrolls and the levels and
Speaker 4: into the rate of USTAR and the unemployment rate, just
Speaker 4: looking at the vacancy rate, job openings, you actually got
Speaker 4: a quite healthy labor market.
Speaker 2: Can we talk to you UK? I mean, we had
Speaker 2: the Commission or do you have a parking ticket in London?
Speaker 2: We could have solved that like two hours ago, Alexis Coro,
Speaker 2: the migration from Saint Andrews down to LC Jesuit Lee.
Speaker 2: I think it was in the Wall Street Journal like
Speaker 2: three days ago with an article on your Saint Andrews?
Speaker 2: Are there too many ugly Americans at St Andrews?
Speaker 3: Well, that.
Speaker 4: Has changed significantly since my days. So that chart that
Speaker 4: they put in there, the number of Americans has dramatically risen.
Speaker 2: Actually it's amazing, I mean to say the least. Okay,
Speaker 2: so this is the phrase I'm seeing in the British press,
Speaker 2: and this is the Prime minister selective realignment? Is Brexit
Speaker 2: a failure? I mean, doctor Crow with in all your
Speaker 2: academics and frankly PwC London and the huge platform you
Speaker 2: have in the United Kingdom. Are we now to a
Speaker 2: point where brexit we could say we've got to do
Speaker 2: selective realignment?
Speaker 4: Well it's interesting anything but name right, a U turn
Speaker 4: in anything but name, I mean fascinating that the now
Speaker 4: Prime Minister of Canada, who was then Central Bank Governor
Speaker 4: in the UK, very clearly stated that brexit would have
Speaker 4: a deleterious impact on the British economy and was almost
Speaker 4: held in contempt of Parliament for it. So we're certainly
Speaker 4: facing the impacts of that today. And Tom, it's interesting
Speaker 4: we've talked about this with the growth outlook, but why
Speaker 4: has growth not dramatically in the UK. A lot of
Speaker 4: things were explained away for COVID, but if you look
Speaker 4: at employment, healthcare social workers are the largest share of employment.
Speaker 4: If you look at GDP numbers, the housing market and
Speaker 4: real estate is the largest share of GDP growth and
Speaker 4: that's largely insulated from any downside impacts from Brexit.
Speaker 2: Tell me just before we go here, the current zite
Speaker 2: guys to PwC an AI benefiting society. To me, it's
Speaker 2: a massive The fancy people love AI and everybody else's crushed.
Speaker 2: Is that too.
Speaker 4: Simplistic phenomenal that we're looking at some of the job
Speaker 4: numbers right where layoffs are promised, but basically to channel
Speaker 4: capital into the physical and technological capital in AI. It's
Speaker 4: the exact opposite of what is happening in Europe, where
Speaker 4: you actually had the unemployment rate hitting an all time low.
Speaker 4: So we're in two different I would say we're in
Speaker 4: a tale of two cities here, and the messages are
Speaker 4: very different across very different across the Atlantic.
Speaker 2: It's fascinating.
Speaker 5: I don't know the answer. I don't know if it's
Speaker 5: a net positive. Well, I know it's gonna be net positive,
Speaker 5: I guess, but I'm not sure what the costs are.
Speaker 2: So my brother's a fancy guy in this. This is
Speaker 2: his exact quote. I have no clue or will be
Speaker 2: in six months. That's exactly what he said.
Speaker 5: Yet, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: What are you writing about next? Get out front of
Speaker 2: here of PWC's.
Speaker 4: Word natural capital and investing in agriculture. It is the
Speaker 4: sort of next generation of climate investing because the far
Speaker 4: right actually like agriculture.
Speaker 2: Okay, what's natural capital?
Speaker 3: It is the umbrella, Dad, it's the new one.
Speaker 4: It's the umbrella phrase for everything investing in biodiversity, credits,
Speaker 4: farmland restoration, regenerative agriculture.
Speaker 2: Very good, Alexis Crow. Thank you so much. With PwC.
Speaker 2: I can't say enough about the grind, the academic work
Speaker 2: that they're doing at their consultancy really a huge value.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more from bloom You are surveillance coming
Speaker 2: up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple,
Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: We have a very special guest right now. I have
Speaker 2: a parking ticket outside the Davidovs cigar bar in near
Speaker 2: Saint James, you know, near the you know, the fancy
Speaker 2: part of London from fourteen years ago, and Mark Riley's
Speaker 2: here to pick it up. Sir Mark, thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining us. Well. I had so much response
Speaker 2: inside here from Miles Miller and others to your appearance today.
Speaker 2: I want to start with the way you do it
Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom. What was it like your first
Speaker 2: day in the West Midlands. You've got the wonderful uniform,
Speaker 2: You're doing all the wonderful thing. In London, there's you know,
Speaker 2: the celebrities and the all the different stuff, probably watching
Speaker 2: the royal family forget about it. What was the first
Speaker 2: day as a constable?
Speaker 6: Like Midlands I always wanted to be I want to
Speaker 6: be a police officer, and I went to university and
Speaker 6: then after university a few months later I'm on the
Speaker 6: streets of Birmingham. So it's a bit of a bit
Speaker 6: of a shock to the system. In placing you see
Speaker 6: life in the raw, you see the best of people
Speaker 6: and the worst of people. And it was it was fantastic.
Speaker 6: And the thing that stuck with me throughout is our
Speaker 6: people are fantastic because they're so committed to the mission.
Speaker 6: They will stress themselves, strain themselves, put themselves at risk,
Speaker 6: and being part of that has always been a privilege.
Speaker 2: Mark what I find it fascinating of the stereotypes that
Speaker 2: Americans have, our basic ideas. Our police are under the teeth,
Speaker 2: all the uproard ice and all that. Now and am
Speaker 2: I right that a police officer in the streets of
Speaker 2: the United Kingdom doesn't carry a weapon. That's exactly right. First,
Speaker 2: it's still like Mary Poppins.
Speaker 6: Poppins without the Van Dyke accident. It's still careful. Now,
Speaker 6: there's no it's really that's exactly. We've got fewer than
Speaker 6: ten percent of our officers are armed, so we have
Speaker 6: specialists who are highly trained who we deploy to armed incidents.
Speaker 6: We have such a different context. Our firearms legislation is
Speaker 6: really restrictive. It's hard for criminals to get hold of
Speaker 6: guns on the streets of London not impossible, but we're
Speaker 6: constantly suppressing that, stopping organized crime, gangs, bringing illegal firearms
Speaker 6: in the city. I mean, last year twenty twenty five,
Speaker 6: we recorded the lowest per capita homicide rate London's ever had,
Speaker 6: ninety seven. Very mind with slightly bigger city than New York.
Speaker 6: New York's at record low levels as well, that's three hundred,
Speaker 6: we're ninety seven. It's a fantastically safe place and we
Speaker 6: we're really proud of a policing by content style that's
Speaker 6: based on relationships with the community. It's minimum use of force,
Speaker 6: but also being tough when we need to be commissard.
Speaker 5: How many police officers are in London Metropolitan Police and
Speaker 5: give us it's what's a typical officer.
Speaker 6: So we've got about thirty one thousand officers, about ten
Speaker 6: thousand unsworn staff. So we policed like city of nine
Speaker 6: million people and just like New York, you've got then
Speaker 6: millions of tourists and commuters coming in on top of that.
Speaker 6: So we've i put our people into of four four
Speaker 6: board groups. So we've got community police officers. The Foundation
Speaker 6: they were at the same patch every day. They know
Speaker 6: the community. They're fighting crime where people live and building
Speaker 6: that relationship with the communities. Secondly, you've got your response team,
Speaker 6: so you nine nine nine one one in your language,
Speaker 6: nine nine in my language, calls that are going to
Speaker 6: turning up and dealing with crisis sort of stabblings, domestic
Speaker 6: advance where else it might be in the moment. And
Speaker 6: then thirdly, our detectives who are chasing down cases, whether
Speaker 6: it's street violence, whether it's sort of rape and sexual violence,
Speaker 6: and they're all supported by organized crime teams who are
Speaker 6: critical at taking out the most insidious crime underpins it.
Speaker 5: Talk to us about just in the world we live
Speaker 5: in today, just with Iran, what's going on with Thern Yeah, see,
Speaker 5: a global capital, you have to think about what's going
Speaker 5: on in the rest of the world, much like the
Speaker 5: Police Commission of New York City would as well. How
Speaker 5: do you deal with what's going on in other parts
Speaker 5: of the world and help me relate to again a
Speaker 5: world capital like London.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So I was with Jessicatis yesterday. We've got so
Speaker 6: much in con between London and New York and sharing
Speaker 6: ideas and sharing experiences of the threats we're facing with
Speaker 6: probably the two greatest cities in the world, I would say,
Speaker 6: and that connection to the rest of the world, those complex,
Speaker 6: diverse communities, it's a fantastic place to be. But it
Speaker 6: also means you'll link to every challenge in the world.
Speaker 6: So for example, with what's going on at the moment
Speaker 6: in the Middle East, we've had in the last couple
Speaker 6: of years, we've disrupted more than twenty Iranian directed plots
Speaker 6: on the streets of the UK's Wow. So Scotland Yard,
Speaker 6: we don't just polease London. We lead the national CANCI
Speaker 6: terrorism policing effort as well, so we have a national
Speaker 6: responsibility and it is responsibility.
Speaker 2: Smark with us here of course of the London Metropolitan
Speaker 2: Police as Commissioner, honored to have them with us to
Speaker 2: say we say good morning to all of you across
Speaker 2: the United Kingdom and around the world. Bloomberg is surveillance.
Speaker 2: So here's the reality. I'm at Scotts in Mayfair. I'm
Speaker 2: like slumming. I'm at you know where it is, Okay,
Speaker 2: I'm at Scotts and Mayfair. Here's the reality. I never
Speaker 2: sit outside in Europe when I have food or drink
Speaker 2: because the phone goes right off the table. The phones
Speaker 2: get stolen, stolen, stolen, you're leading a charge in it.
Speaker 2: What do you need from Tim Cook? So I can
Speaker 2: sit outside at Scotts again.
Speaker 6: Okay, So firstly what a police doing about it? And
Speaker 6: then what can tech companies do about it? So in
Speaker 6: the center of town now it's at half the rate
Speaker 6: it was a year ago. Last year was ten thousand.
Speaker 6: Few of victims. We've been taking out the organized crime gangs.
Speaker 6: This is a global hundreds of million dollar trade because
Speaker 6: the problem with the security on these phones is that
Speaker 6: the tech companies had an amazing job. So we can
Speaker 6: run our life on our phones, our data secure, people
Speaker 6: run their banks and everything else. That's fantastic, but the
Speaker 6: physical securities had less attention. So the phone that gets
Speaker 6: stolen from you in New York or Paris or London,
Speaker 6: on Madrid or wherever, that can be rebooted and sold
Speaker 6: as nearly new and sort of wiped, not with your
Speaker 6: data in it. Those phones have been exported to China, Africa,
Speaker 6: South America and sold for high value, and that is
Speaker 6: driving the trade. What we need from the tech companies
Speaker 6: is to be able to turn the stolen phone into
Speaker 6: a brick. If you report it stolen, you should be
Speaker 6: able to log onto your Android accounts or your iOS
Speaker 6: account and put it down as stolen, and then it's
Speaker 6: never going to be reactivated. That would crash the secondhand
Speaker 6: value and that would stop the thieving, so we can
Speaker 6: keep driving it down. We hosted a conference in London
Speaker 6: last year. We had we had people, we had Santiago, Tokyo, Barcelona, Rome,
Speaker 6: we had cities across the world are all facing the same.
Speaker 6: This is an issue for global cities happening across the world.
Speaker 2: We went to the moon. Why can't Tim Cook fix
Speaker 2: the phone once and for all. I just don't get it.
Speaker 6: I don't get it either. I hope I have that conversation.
Speaker 6: If we used to have a problem in the UK,
Speaker 6: and I imagine here as well, where thirty years ago
Speaker 6: car radios would be stolen out of cars. Guess what
Speaker 6: we redesigned dashboards, didn't we You can't steal a car
Speaker 6: radio now, it's like integral to whole vehicle. You say
Speaker 6: to your kids you worried about your radio being stolen,
Speaker 6: So why can't we design this at It's the same thing.
Speaker 6: If that was a brick when it was stolen, that
Speaker 6: would kill the global trade.
Speaker 5: In this told us are just about technology broadly in policing.
Speaker 5: I have to think it's like the rest of us
Speaker 5: has changed the way you do your job your first
Speaker 5: days to how you're doing it now. How do you
Speaker 5: stay on top of the technology.
Speaker 6: So that's one of the things Commissa New York and
Speaker 6: I were discussing yesterday, the clever things they've done. We're
Speaker 6: doing exchanging notes on it. Keeping pace with that is
Speaker 6: really critical to keep pace with criminals. Also to make
Speaker 6: best use of the data. A quick couple of examples,
Speaker 6: so we've been using sort of algorithms and sort of
Speaker 6: data science to identify the most dangerous men who are
Speaker 6: poser threat to women and children. So you get all
Speaker 6: these allegations of sexual violence, you follow the case by case,
Speaker 6: but how do you spot the most dangerous man has
Speaker 6: the most big risk out of ten thousands of cases.
Speaker 6: Data science does that and then you throw the kitchen
Speaker 6: singert getting him off the streets and in prison. Another use,
Speaker 6: we've been using facial recognition on the streets to the
Speaker 6: UK life facial recognition. I know that makes people here
Speaker 6: feel a bit nervous. We've been really thoughtful and quite
Speaker 6: about it. We've got eighty five percent public support for it,
Speaker 6: and we're arresting over one thousand people year. It's dangerous offended,
Speaker 6: wanted offenders. It's so powerful.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I looked it up, folks. I mean
Speaker 2: it's it's you know, a Lexus taught me how to
Speaker 2: use Google Gemini and I'm killing it. Jasica t shares
Speaker 2: one hundred thousand cameras. You we have by this listing,
Speaker 2: nine hundred forty thousand cameras. You have eight times as
Speaker 2: many cameras. You have eighty five percent public support from
Speaker 2: where you said, sir Mark, what in God's name is
Speaker 2: America getting wrong? And the idea of getting the thugs
Speaker 2: off the street with cameras? So, I mean, my whole
Speaker 2: knowledge of this is slow horses.
Speaker 6: I think that's that's a great show, isn't it.
Speaker 2: It's a great Is it real? It's slow horses? Horses?
Speaker 6: And I hope my personal hygien is a bit better
Speaker 6: than the lead character.
Speaker 2: When you watch Emma Thompson and down Cemetery Road? Is
Speaker 2: that real?
Speaker 6: It's not. It's not real. It's great fun, though, isn't it.
Speaker 6: I mean, I watched these shows as well. They're fantastic
Speaker 6: any more than a doubt.
Speaker 2: The wire is real. The cameras work right, that's the battle.
Speaker 6: The cameras are fantastic and sort of what they do
Speaker 6: is so we have. How about this our homicide solved
Speaker 6: rate over ninety five percent of cases we solve. That's
Speaker 6: where above American City is. That's partly about technology. It's
Speaker 6: partly about great detectives, the facial recognition stuff. We've worked
Speaker 6: hard to make sure we're using it ethically and carefully.
Speaker 6: We're showing the public the results of the sub dangerous
Speaker 6: sex offenders and the wanted people we're taking off the streets.
Speaker 6: We've got eighty five percent for that support. So I
Speaker 6: think we can in policing make the best use of
Speaker 6: bond technology. We shouldn't be scared of it. He's got
Speaker 6: to be thoughtful and clever about it, because if you
Speaker 6: misuse it, you'll break that trust. And the thing I'm
Speaker 6: most proud of what we're doing in trust in the
Speaker 6: police is going up, even in this world where trust
Speaker 6: in the state is so challenged and there's hostile states
Speaker 6: trying to undermine it, and all of this difficult polarized dialogue.
Speaker 6: Trust in the met is going up because of the
Speaker 6: policing we're doing. Why are you here and here exchange
Speaker 6: notes with, say, with Jessica Tisha and other other commissioners,
Speaker 6: meeting up with the FBI colleagues because we do this
Speaker 6: national cancterrorism work and that's important to sustain those relationships
Speaker 6: and talk about case.
Speaker 2: So it's like a plumber's convention.
Speaker 6: Come out to the West coast as well to talk
Speaker 6: to your god Junken.
Speaker 5: Disney.
Speaker 2: Very good.
Speaker 5: What's the biggest challenge for you these days? In a
Speaker 5: world where so much change, so much uncertainty.
Speaker 6: So keeping pace with the technology, which is hard in
Speaker 6: the public sector for all the reasons we've discussed, and
Speaker 6: building trust in the world which is so angry and
Speaker 6: polarized and all the hostilitybates that go on online is
Speaker 6: so so difficult, and economic issues means we're a police
Speaker 6: force which is having to get smaller, so doing better
Speaker 6: while getting smaller as TRD, but we're arresting one thousand
Speaker 6: people more a month than we were a couple of
Speaker 6: years ago because of all the clever stuff we're doing
Speaker 6: and fantastic people.
Speaker 2: Mark I get one final questions critical. I noticed the
Speaker 2: BBC's a small news organization over in London. You had
Speaker 2: a blistering conversation that you need seventy pounds that's the
Speaker 2: currency over there for policing a football teams of Premium
Speaker 2: League like they're basically doing their security off your budget. Yes,
Speaker 2: as well, what in God's name are you going to
Speaker 2: do about Totenham being relegated? I mean what does that
Speaker 2: do north of London if Tottenham is relegated?
Speaker 6: So most people outside London will probably celebrate that.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna ask and for.
Speaker 6: The fan from my jersey told us this, so I'm
Speaker 6: not gonna I'm not going to shed any tears if
Speaker 6: they do get relegated. I'm most interesting where my team
Speaker 6: get into the Champions League this year.
Speaker 2: They look pretty good. Villa.
Speaker 6: We've got a brilliant Spanish manager in Imra who's complete transformed.
Speaker 6: Did you go to the you got the World Cup
Speaker 6: coming here is what I'm you.
Speaker 2: Did you go to the concert in July at Eston Villa,
Speaker 2: the Metal Concert?
Speaker 6: No? I didn't think he was born one. I did
Speaker 6: once seeing the A couple of decades ago. I saw
Speaker 6: Bruce Springsteen at the park that was an amazing We
Speaker 6: have to go.
Speaker 2: But sir Mark, I have only one thing for you
Speaker 2: to understand. John Pharaoh, when he grew up as a
Speaker 2: tough kid in Coventry. He has a police blotter. The
Speaker 2: things he did in school we're unspeakable. Next time you come,
Speaker 2: we'll introduce you to John Farrell of Coventry, England.
Speaker 6: He started a few historic clear ups from seeing Crawley
Speaker 6: here with all.
Speaker 2: Of the men and women in duty. Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Jack Jennis suits with us within the Texas, sutly could
Speaker 2: be with us today doing a strategy there. What is
Speaker 2: the operative strategy amid war?
Speaker 7: You know right now? I think what we look at
Speaker 7: is both tail risks are opening up right. The downside
Speaker 7: tail risk, I think is a little bit wider, but
Speaker 7: you also have the upside tail risk.
Speaker 2: So what do you do well?
Speaker 7: I think the portfolio here is the strategy is simply
Speaker 7: stay invested, but shuffle the deck a little bit.
Speaker 2: Right, We're looking at getting a little bit.
Speaker 7: More invested with the US a little bit less susceptible
Speaker 7: to higher energy prices. You're looking at maybe a little
Speaker 7: valuation count because of the correction we've seen tech maybe
Speaker 7: a place to hide here because it's you know, a
Speaker 7: little bit more on the margin side, still decent revenues,
Speaker 7: it's really how derating more recently so bottom line of states.
Speaker 2: Means it cratered. That's Boston's securities analysts society raid.
Speaker 5: Cratered jack about earnings. I mean, before the Iran War,
Speaker 5: the focus was on earnings, and earnings were pretty darn
Speaker 5: good out there for the quarter, and I think most
Speaker 5: companies were pretty optimistic about the remainder of the year.
Speaker 5: How do you think is our earnings enough to support
Speaker 5: these markets here?
Speaker 7: You know, I think we're the starting point matters. So
Speaker 7: we're coming in from a pretty good perspective. You've got
Speaker 7: margins that are still pretty wide, so we can see
Speaker 7: a little bit of maybe room for companies to absorb
Speaker 7: higher energy prices that are built into that. You know,
Speaker 7: again still up into the right. Maybe we take a
Speaker 7: little bit off that. So maybe you go from fifteen
Speaker 7: percent expected for next year to fourteen thirteen relative to
Speaker 7: the rest of the world. That's still pretty good. So
Speaker 7: when we talk about sort of positioning and portfolios, the
Speaker 7: more defensive relative bias I think is still US and
Speaker 7: US archs cap in here.
Speaker 5: Could let's just say, because we had the rest of
Speaker 5: the world actually outperformed the US last year, and I'm
Speaker 5: not you know, a lot of that was the weekending
Speaker 5: of the US dollar last year, but so you still
Speaker 5: feel more or feel comfortable with the maybe a little
Speaker 5: bit overweight the US versus the rest of the world.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and again think about it more from a cyclical
Speaker 7: versus growth trade. Right, part of the trade was that
Speaker 7: we saw international developed I'll perform. It's because the cyclical
Speaker 7: portion of the economy started to reaccelerate. Now there's some
Speaker 7: questions about that going forward if we start to see
Speaker 7: elevated energy prices for a prolong period of time. So
Speaker 7: I think maybe you get the growth story coming back
Speaker 7: into play, and that's where the US I think has
Speaker 7: a little bit of an advantage.
Speaker 2: So you're at Boston University and you're in the party,
Speaker 2: and there's that oriental rug when you go up the
Speaker 2: stairs and all that and you're trying to be smart.
Speaker 2: Wise guy, can you explain to me Walmart with a
Speaker 2: pe forward of forty three and Microsoft with the pe
Speaker 2: of twenty three? I think across the arc of my
Speaker 2: career that started at Folly, you know where that is,
Speaker 2: and the arc of my career that's never happened.
Speaker 7: Yeah, And I think part of this is the maybe
Speaker 7: the AI story that's built into that.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 7: We sort of had that derating that we were just
Speaker 7: talking about anything that was associated with potentially being adversely
Speaker 7: impacted by AI. Sell it down self first, ask questions later,
Speaker 7: Let's see how this plays itself out. Uh, you know,
Speaker 7: maybe Walmart is and maybe in that beneficiary as opposed
Speaker 7: to being maybe eaten alive so to speak.
Speaker 5: I'll get that market wants a higher premium for that.
Speaker 2: Where's the biggest delinkage right now of common sense for
Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers.
Speaker 7: You know? To me, it comes back to that tech
Speaker 7: backdrop again, right, what's the US good at. It's good
Speaker 7: at innovation. That's one thing that I think we're always
Speaker 7: going to be a strong port relative to the rest
Speaker 7: of the world. And yet to see this massive derating
Speaker 7: in here to me, thinks, are we really going to
Speaker 7: see our sort of leadership in that area?
Speaker 2: Given back, I don't think so. Okay, So I'm in
Speaker 2: Phoenix and I do want to see, if anything, And
Speaker 2: I go to the Giants fabulous baseball park, Scott Steal Paul,
Speaker 2: you told me it's perfect out there. I'm moving there
Speaker 2: next week. And they're playing like the World Baseball people.
Speaker 2: And a guy named Bragman comes up to the plate
Speaker 2: the first pitch, the ball came down somewhere near flag staff.
Speaker 2: How much of the Red Sox can a miss? Alex Bregman.
Speaker 2: The narrative for the Red Sox just changed.
Speaker 7: It's all about pitching and defense and then we'll scrap
Speaker 7: out three to two wins.
Speaker 3: That's what it's coming down to, Dodgers of our youth exactly.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, Raphael's like in San Francisco way, Hi. Hey,
Speaker 2: Alex is like Humpty Million with the Cubs.
Speaker 6: Hi.
Speaker 2: And we can't put it on Roman Anthony. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's not going to do it.
Speaker 7: It's the pitching staff. I'm telling you that that's going
Speaker 7: to be the key here. If they stay healthy, they've
Speaker 7: got four quality starters sound.
Speaker 2: It's just my ute, Jack, I think, thank you, Alex
Speaker 2: Bragman with the Cubs, it's going to be something to
Speaker 2: say the least. Jack. Jennis Suit's with his lead portfolio
Speaker 2: strategists at Texas. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance
Speaker 2: coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: The newspapers for this morning, Jason try to coming up
Speaker 2: here in about seventy eight minutes is all, but right
Speaker 2: now the newspaper is much needed. Here's Alexis gustavorus.
Speaker 8: All right, March madness is here, guys. And there is
Speaker 8: an article on the Wall Street Journal that says you
Speaker 8: have to think like an investor to win your bracket pool.
Speaker 3: You know what that means.
Speaker 8: You don't pick Duke? Yeah, once again, we know this.
Speaker 2: Excuse me?
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Duke enters the NCAA tournament as the number one overall seed,
Speaker 8: and the Wall Street Journal says that's exactly why. The
Speaker 8: smartest thing you can do is to pick against them.
Speaker 8: They said the Blue Devils are right now the most
Speaker 8: overvalued team. Yep, so you bet against them, it's strategically optimal.
Speaker 8: They also said there's an extra incentive for shorting Duke.
Speaker 8: Two starters are injured, so they're limping their way in,
Speaker 8: and the statistical models are inflating or might be inflating
Speaker 8: their chances.
Speaker 5: One of those starters is coming back for the tournaments.
Speaker 2: Don't worry.
Speaker 8: Okay, see I knew you're on it the inside.
Speaker 5: Well, yes, they're all freshmen. The reason that they never
Speaker 5: win since this playing the one and done freshman kids
Speaker 5: is because they're kids. They can't pay against men. When
Speaker 5: it gets to the time, why.
Speaker 2: Do they allow this? We have to stop the show.
Speaker 2: Why in God's name do they allow this?
Speaker 5: Because they should. The players should get compensated because they're
Speaker 5: creating huge value for the university. So they give a
Speaker 5: ton of money, absolutely whatever.
Speaker 2: They give them a ton of money to stay around.
Speaker 5: If they want to stay, they can say if they
Speaker 5: want to leave, they could leave. So it's it's a
Speaker 5: it's a fair system. The players are getting value for
Speaker 5: or getting paid for their value. It's just hard to
Speaker 5: build a team.
Speaker 2: That excuse us. I'm sorry.
Speaker 8: Well, let's get back to it. Because which team should
Speaker 8: you pick? Which sort of begs the question? And according
Speaker 8: to the paper Michigan. Yeah, so the Wolverines they say
Speaker 8: have nearly the same title chances as do but they
Speaker 8: say they are the most value of any team in
Speaker 8: the field.
Speaker 2: Don't tell West law Fia. To the end of that boiler.
Speaker 5: Up, Yep, you who did it exactly? You got the
Speaker 5: boiler Makers going on.
Speaker 2: I got the boiler Makers going all the way, but
Speaker 2: I do have Triple UNC taking them out because Trimble's
Speaker 2: been there for four years. Yep.
Speaker 8: Next, all right, it is not just investors now some
Speaker 8: states are adding gold to their investment portfolios. This one's
Speaker 8: from the Wall Street Journal. So some states actually now
Speaker 8: have laws on the books requiring them to buy precious
Speaker 8: medals as a hedge against economic terminial. Wyoming is one
Speaker 8: of them. They spent ten million dollars on gold bars
Speaker 8: the actual physical gold back in December. It's now valued
Speaker 8: at eleven point six million, so not bad for a
Speaker 8: few months investment. Other states also looking at doing this Utah,
Speaker 8: West Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia all pursuing legislation to further integrate
Speaker 8: these precious medals into their economies.
Speaker 3: Look, there are critics.
Speaker 8: Wyoming's governor says it's a liquid golds to but they're hedging.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a hedge. So I'm not sure. I'd never
Speaker 5: heard of them owning the physical goal. Yes, that's interesting.
Speaker 8: Wyoming is actually putting it in a building that once
Speaker 8: belonged to the Casper Star tribune'sned by Wyoming's reserves, sort
Speaker 8: of like, I don't know, it's the Old West, you know,
Speaker 8: got that Old West feeling. All right, here's a good one,
Speaker 8: especially for coin collectors. I don't know if you guys
Speaker 8: collect coinsnies.
Speaker 3: Yeah, very cool.
Speaker 8: Okay, so here's something for you. The US Men has
Speaker 8: rolled out temporary commemorative coins to celebrate our nation's two
Speaker 8: hundred fifty of the dime.
Speaker 3: Is very controversial here. Do we know why?
Speaker 8: It's because on the flip side of it, the new
Speaker 8: design left out the olive branch, which is supposed to
Speaker 8: signify piece. We still have the eagle with the talon
Speaker 8: holding thirteen arrows, I guess for the original thirteen colonies.
Speaker 8: But they say now beneath the eagle is the inscription
Speaker 8: liberty over tyranny, so this temporary design was finalized in
Speaker 8: twenty twenty four, before President Trump took office. Some thought
Speaker 8: he had something to do with this. The artist and
Speaker 8: the US men say it symbolizes the early US quest
Speaker 8: for freedom from Britain. But don't get too crazy about it, everybody,
Speaker 8: It's only here for a year.
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