1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube with Price. 6 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: Waterhouse Coopers right now Coopers in Live at You know, 7 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 2: we remember it as well. Lexis crow darkins the dirt 8 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: this morning. What does your shop say about the capitalization 9 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: the options of big tech? They feel like they're playing 10 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: by their own rule book because of their profitability, because 11 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: they're young turks out in San Francisco and all that. 12 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 2: But what does PwC say about the bond issuance or 13 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 2: the stack buyback? I mean, just just continue. 14 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 3: Thanks so much Tom for having me. 15 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 4: I think in that realm credit conditions are pretty easy, 16 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 4: and what we hear from a lot of investors and 17 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 4: developers is that these are top tier borrowers, so there's 18 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 4: no concern about mounting piles of leverage. 19 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 5: How about mounting piles of one hundred dollars oil and 20 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 5: the impact that has on the global economy. Is it 21 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 5: a short term blip? You guys aren't too concerned about it, 22 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,559 Speaker 5: or are you reworking your models and thinking about GDP 23 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 5: and inflation that kind of thing. 24 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 3: Paul, thanks so much. I mean, this is not Russia Ukraine. 25 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 4: This is the largest shock that we've had to the 26 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 4: global energy system since nineteen seventy nine. At that time, 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 4: as we know, oil doubled in value, and we're headed 28 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 4: that way again. 29 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 3: Appreciate what the former gentlemen said. 30 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 4: I would say that, yes, effects of this will be localized, 31 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 4: but in the United States there are downstream impacts. So 32 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 4: we think about that growth in America right now is 33 00:01:55,920 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 4: overwhelmingly tilted toward the investment spend in AI. And where 34 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,919 Speaker 4: do the semicon chips come from that go into fabrication 35 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 4: of AI and data centers. They come from South Korea. 36 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 4: Where does South Korea's oil come from? It comes from 37 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 4: the Middle East. So there are long term implications of 38 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,959 Speaker 4: what's happening, even the downstream impacts of fertilizers here in 39 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 4: the US as we come into the planting season. 40 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: Do you do your research not to us or you 41 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 2: have minions that do this for me? My god, what 42 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 2: a fabulous research. Now? Thank you get that from Price 43 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,119 Speaker 2: Waterhouse Coopers. Folks, as you can. PW. See. I love 44 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 2: your first chart about the multinationalization of American companies. We 45 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 2: still to this day underplay that, don't we Yep. 46 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 3: So that's it. 47 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 4: Fifty three point six percent of the revenue of the 48 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 4: tech portion of the S and P five hundred is 49 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 4: earned overseas, which means that again, those companies that we're 50 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 4: all relying on in terms of prosperity in America are 51 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 4: not immune to slowing growth overseas? 52 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 2: Are they international stocks? Where I don't need to diversify 53 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 2: Internet nationally. I can just buy Apple because they're everywhere. 54 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 4: I would still I would still bank on diversification and 55 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 4: getting into European baskets and Asian baskets. 56 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 2: And we've seen that say that. 57 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 4: Of course, the outperformance of the SCI has been pretty impressive. 58 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 2: Yes, So. 59 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 5: How do we start adjusting our GDP models. I mean, 60 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 5: we just had Delta come out today. He said it 61 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,959 Speaker 5: took a four hundred million dollar higher fuel costs just 62 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 5: in the month of March. So this really is hitting 63 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 5: the economy. Is this going to materially slow the economy 64 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 5: or is it again? Is it something maybe they can 65 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 5: power through? 66 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 4: Well, it'll be interesting to see what the FED says 67 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: with it's SEP coming out, generally, I think you would 68 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: say it's they'll they'll, they'll bank on. It's something you 69 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 4: can look through, right in terms of GDP growth, because 70 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 4: again this fallacy is that AI is insulated from the 71 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 4: rest of kind of policy shocks in the glory. Nevertheless, 72 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 4: I would say the US consumer is super price sensitive 73 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 4: when it comes to the price they pay it the pump. 74 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 2: Ye. 75 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 4: And we're coming into the summer driving season, so larger 76 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 4: share of income will go toward transportation. 77 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: And with oil where it is dieseled. 78 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 4: Today in California six and a half, that's going to 79 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 4: put pressure on the purse. 80 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 2: I was thunderstruck by the price of diesel in Phoenix 81 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 2: like ten days ago. I mean, I think there's not 82 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: been enough said PA. I think about refinery products. 83 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 3: Correct, especially California. 84 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 2: Gas oil fuel oil is looking at you know, the 85 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 2: way they go from the chemistry of oil in the 86 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: naphtha into ethyline in that I mean the petrochemical business. 87 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 2: What does Priced water House Cooper see of that? 88 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 4: Well, So it's interesting just thinking about some of these 89 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 4: down down, you know, refined products you have Saudi Arabia 90 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 4: can get some of these refined products from the East 91 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 4: Coast over to the West Coast and the Red Sea 92 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 4: to Jason and too Yanbu. But that's going to be 93 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 4: a logistical overhaul. Its something that the Finance Minister actually 94 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 4: prioritized prior to all of this, as they would focus 95 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 4: on logistics. 96 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 3: And here they are. 97 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 4: They're going to have to do that. You can get 98 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 4: fertilizers out that way as well. But in any given 99 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 4: year in the United States, farmers rely on forty percent 100 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,919 Speaker 4: imports to make up the area and fertilizers, so this 101 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 4: will be a I. 102 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 2: Think it's way under play conty. We're all looking together, 103 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 2: Gus and I'm sorry, it's way more complicated than that. 104 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 5: Correct, And I don't see how this is anything but 105 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 5: a political head wind for this administration. I'm just surprised 106 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 5: this from a political perspective, given that affordability has become 107 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 5: a gigise and. 108 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 2: It's massively global. It's amazing how we don't want petro 109 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 2: chemicals in America, so they're over somewhere else where we 110 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 2: don't have to worry about it. Alexis crow or this 111 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 2: partner chief economist at PwC, Paul Sweeney with doctor Crowe. 112 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 5: So what do you expect how do you expect the 113 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 5: Fed tomorrow to comment about this? Do you expect them 114 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 5: to comment directly? And how do you think they will 115 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 5: kind of adjust for this? 116 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 4: Well, I think it'll be I think the main thing 117 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 4: that market participants will looking for is if they're going 118 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 4: to give any guidance on whether there will be rate 119 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 4: cuts in the future. Obviously you can expect them to 120 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 4: hold pause tomorrow. I think you've seen some of the 121 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 4: voting members move from two cuts to one, in which 122 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 4: case I would say, I mean the other side of 123 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 4: things is there's still this rich debate within the FED 124 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 4: right now as to whether or not you focus on 125 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 4: the inflation part and price stability of the dual mandate, 126 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 4: or whether or not you focus on the labor market. 127 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 4: You've had some actually highlighting that what Austin Golesby calls 128 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 4: the four horsemen in the employment market is actually quite strong. 129 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 4: So looking beneath non farm payrolls and the levels and 130 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 4: into the rate of USTAR and the unemployment rate, just 131 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 4: looking at the vacancy rate, job openings, you actually got 132 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 4: a quite healthy labor market. 133 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 2: Can we talk to you UK? I mean, we had 134 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 2: the Commission or do you have a parking ticket in London? 135 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 2: We could have solved that like two hours ago, Alexis Coro, 136 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 2: the migration from Saint Andrews down to LC Jesuit Lee. 137 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 2: I think it was in the Wall Street Journal like 138 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 2: three days ago with an article on your Saint Andrews? 139 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: Are there too many ugly Americans at St Andrews? 140 00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 3: Well, that. 141 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 4: Has changed significantly since my days. So that chart that 142 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 4: they put in there, the number of Americans has dramatically risen. 143 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,119 Speaker 2: Actually it's amazing, I mean to say the least. Okay, 144 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: so this is the phrase I'm seeing in the British press, 145 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 2: and this is the Prime minister selective realignment? Is Brexit 146 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 2: a failure? I mean, doctor Crow with in all your 147 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 2: academics and frankly PwC London and the huge platform you 148 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 2: have in the United Kingdom. Are we now to a 149 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 2: point where brexit we could say we've got to do 150 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 2: selective realignment? 151 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 4: Well it's interesting anything but name right, a U turn 152 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 4: in anything but name, I mean fascinating that the now 153 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 4: Prime Minister of Canada, who was then Central Bank Governor 154 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 4: in the UK, very clearly stated that brexit would have 155 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 4: a deleterious impact on the British economy and was almost 156 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 4: held in contempt of Parliament for it. So we're certainly 157 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 4: facing the impacts of that today. And Tom, it's interesting 158 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 4: we've talked about this with the growth outlook, but why 159 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 4: has growth not dramatically in the UK. A lot of 160 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 4: things were explained away for COVID, but if you look 161 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 4: at employment, healthcare social workers are the largest share of employment. 162 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 4: If you look at GDP numbers, the housing market and 163 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 4: real estate is the largest share of GDP growth and 164 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 4: that's largely insulated from any downside impacts from Brexit. 165 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 2: Tell me just before we go here, the current zite 166 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 2: guys to PwC an AI benefiting society. To me, it's 167 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 2: a massive The fancy people love AI and everybody else's crushed. 168 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 2: Is that too. 169 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 4: Simplistic phenomenal that we're looking at some of the job 170 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 4: numbers right where layoffs are promised, but basically to channel 171 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 4: capital into the physical and technological capital in AI. It's 172 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 4: the exact opposite of what is happening in Europe, where 173 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 4: you actually had the unemployment rate hitting an all time low. 174 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 4: So we're in two different I would say we're in 175 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,839 Speaker 4: a tale of two cities here, and the messages are 176 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 4: very different across very different across the Atlantic. 177 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 2: It's fascinating. 178 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 5: I don't know the answer. I don't know if it's 179 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 5: a net positive. Well, I know it's gonna be net positive, 180 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 5: I guess, but I'm not sure what the costs are. 181 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: So my brother's a fancy guy in this. This is 182 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 2: his exact quote. I have no clue or will be 183 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 2: in six months. That's exactly what he said. 184 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 5: Yet, thank you so much. 185 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 2: What are you writing about next? Get out front of 186 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 2: here of PWC's. 187 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 4: Word natural capital and investing in agriculture. It is the 188 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 4: sort of next generation of climate investing because the far 189 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 4: right actually like agriculture. 190 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 2: Okay, what's natural capital? 191 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 3: It is the umbrella, Dad, it's the new one. 192 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 4: It's the umbrella phrase for everything investing in biodiversity, credits, 193 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 4: farmland restoration, regenerative agriculture. 194 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 2: Very good, Alexis Crow. Thank you so much. With PwC. 195 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 2: I can't say enough about the grind, the academic work 196 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 2: that they're doing at their consultancy really a huge value. 197 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 2: Stay with us more from bloom You are surveillance coming 198 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 2: up after this. 199 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 200 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, 201 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 202 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube. 203 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 2: We have a very special guest right now. I have 204 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 2: a parking ticket outside the Davidovs cigar bar in near 205 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 2: Saint James, you know, near the you know, the fancy 206 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 2: part of London from fourteen years ago, and Mark Riley's 207 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 2: here to pick it up. Sir Mark, thank you so 208 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:42,199 Speaker 2: much for joining us. Well. I had so much response 209 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 2: inside here from Miles Miller and others to your appearance today. 210 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 2: I want to start with the way you do it 211 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom. What was it like your first 212 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,479 Speaker 2: day in the West Midlands. You've got the wonderful uniform, 213 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,679 Speaker 2: You're doing all the wonderful thing. In London, there's you know, 214 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 2: the celebrities and the all the different stuff, probably watching 215 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 2: the royal family forget about it. What was the first 216 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 2: day as a constable? 217 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 6: Like Midlands I always wanted to be I want to 218 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 6: be a police officer, and I went to university and 219 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 6: then after university a few months later I'm on the 220 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,959 Speaker 6: streets of Birmingham. So it's a bit of a bit 221 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 6: of a shock to the system. In placing you see 222 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 6: life in the raw, you see the best of people 223 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 6: and the worst of people. And it was it was fantastic. 224 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 6: And the thing that stuck with me throughout is our 225 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 6: people are fantastic because they're so committed to the mission. 226 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 6: They will stress themselves, strain themselves, put themselves at risk, 227 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 6: and being part of that has always been a privilege. 228 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 2: Mark what I find it fascinating of the stereotypes that 229 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 2: Americans have, our basic ideas. Our police are under the teeth, 230 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: all the uproard ice and all that. Now and am 231 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 2: I right that a police officer in the streets of 232 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 2: the United Kingdom doesn't carry a weapon. That's exactly right. First, 233 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 2: it's still like Mary Poppins. 234 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 6: Poppins without the Van Dyke accident. It's still careful. Now, 235 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 6: there's no it's really that's exactly. We've got fewer than 236 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 6: ten percent of our officers are armed, so we have 237 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 6: specialists who are highly trained who we deploy to armed incidents. 238 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 6: We have such a different context. Our firearms legislation is 239 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 6: really restrictive. It's hard for criminals to get hold of 240 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 6: guns on the streets of London not impossible, but we're 241 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 6: constantly suppressing that, stopping organized crime, gangs, bringing illegal firearms 242 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 6: in the city. I mean, last year twenty twenty five, 243 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 6: we recorded the lowest per capita homicide rate London's ever had, 244 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 6: ninety seven. Very mind with slightly bigger city than New York. 245 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 6: New York's at record low levels as well, that's three hundred, 246 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 6: we're ninety seven. It's a fantastically safe place and we 247 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 6: we're really proud of a policing by content style that's 248 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 6: based on relationships with the community. It's minimum use of force, 249 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 6: but also being tough when we need to be commissard. 250 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 5: How many police officers are in London Metropolitan Police and 251 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 5: give us it's what's a typical officer. 252 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 6: So we've got about thirty one thousand officers, about ten 253 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 6: thousand unsworn staff. So we policed like city of nine 254 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 6: million people and just like New York, you've got then 255 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 6: millions of tourists and commuters coming in on top of that. 256 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 6: So we've i put our people into of four four 257 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 6: board groups. So we've got community police officers. The Foundation 258 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 6: they were at the same patch every day. They know 259 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 6: the community. They're fighting crime where people live and building 260 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 6: that relationship with the communities. Secondly, you've got your response team, 261 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 6: so you nine nine nine one one in your language, 262 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,719 Speaker 6: nine nine in my language, calls that are going to 263 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 6: turning up and dealing with crisis sort of stabblings, domestic 264 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 6: advance where else it might be in the moment. And 265 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 6: then thirdly, our detectives who are chasing down cases, whether 266 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 6: it's street violence, whether it's sort of rape and sexual violence, 267 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 6: and they're all supported by organized crime teams who are 268 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 6: critical at taking out the most insidious crime underpins it. 269 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 5: Talk to us about just in the world we live 270 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 5: in today, just with Iran, what's going on with Thern Yeah, see, 271 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 5: a global capital, you have to think about what's going 272 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 5: on in the rest of the world, much like the 273 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 5: Police Commission of New York City would as well. How 274 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 5: do you deal with what's going on in other parts 275 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 5: of the world and help me relate to again a 276 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 5: world capital like London. 277 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, So I was with Jessicatis yesterday. We've got so 278 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 6: much in con between London and New York and sharing 279 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 6: ideas and sharing experiences of the threats we're facing with 280 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 6: probably the two greatest cities in the world, I would say, 281 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 6: and that connection to the rest of the world, those complex, 282 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 6: diverse communities, it's a fantastic place to be. But it 283 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 6: also means you'll link to every challenge in the world. 284 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 6: So for example, with what's going on at the moment 285 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 6: in the Middle East, we've had in the last couple 286 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 6: of years, we've disrupted more than twenty Iranian directed plots 287 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 6: on the streets of the UK's Wow. So Scotland Yard, 288 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 6: we don't just polease London. We lead the national CANCI 289 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 6: terrorism policing effort as well, so we have a national 290 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 6: responsibility and it is responsibility. 291 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 2: Smark with us here of course of the London Metropolitan 292 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 2: Police as Commissioner, honored to have them with us to 293 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 2: say we say good morning to all of you across 294 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: the United Kingdom and around the world. Bloomberg is surveillance. 295 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 2: So here's the reality. I'm at Scotts in Mayfair. I'm 296 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: like slumming. I'm at you know where it is, Okay, 297 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 2: I'm at Scotts and Mayfair. Here's the reality. I never 298 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 2: sit outside in Europe when I have food or drink 299 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 2: because the phone goes right off the table. The phones 300 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 2: get stolen, stolen, stolen, you're leading a charge in it. 301 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 2: What do you need from Tim Cook? So I can 302 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 2: sit outside at Scotts again. 303 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 6: Okay, So firstly what a police doing about it? And 304 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 6: then what can tech companies do about it? So in 305 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 6: the center of town now it's at half the rate 306 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 6: it was a year ago. Last year was ten thousand. 307 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 6: Few of victims. We've been taking out the organized crime gangs. 308 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 6: This is a global hundreds of million dollar trade because 309 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 6: the problem with the security on these phones is that 310 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 6: the tech companies had an amazing job. So we can 311 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 6: run our life on our phones, our data secure, people 312 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 6: run their banks and everything else. That's fantastic, but the 313 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 6: physical securities had less attention. So the phone that gets 314 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 6: stolen from you in New York or Paris or London, 315 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 6: on Madrid or wherever, that can be rebooted and sold 316 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 6: as nearly new and sort of wiped, not with your 317 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 6: data in it. Those phones have been exported to China, Africa, 318 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 6: South America and sold for high value, and that is 319 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 6: driving the trade. What we need from the tech companies 320 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 6: is to be able to turn the stolen phone into 321 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 6: a brick. If you report it stolen, you should be 322 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 6: able to log onto your Android accounts or your iOS 323 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 6: account and put it down as stolen, and then it's 324 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 6: never going to be reactivated. That would crash the secondhand 325 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 6: value and that would stop the thieving, so we can 326 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 6: keep driving it down. We hosted a conference in London 327 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 6: last year. We had we had people, we had Santiago, Tokyo, Barcelona, Rome, 328 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 6: we had cities across the world are all facing the same. 329 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 6: This is an issue for global cities happening across the world. 330 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 2: We went to the moon. Why can't Tim Cook fix 331 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 2: the phone once and for all. I just don't get it. 332 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 6: I don't get it either. I hope I have that conversation. 333 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 6: If we used to have a problem in the UK, 334 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 6: and I imagine here as well, where thirty years ago 335 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 6: car radios would be stolen out of cars. Guess what 336 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 6: we redesigned dashboards, didn't we You can't steal a car 337 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 6: radio now, it's like integral to whole vehicle. You say 338 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 6: to your kids you worried about your radio being stolen, 339 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 6: So why can't we design this at It's the same thing. 340 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 6: If that was a brick when it was stolen, that 341 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 6: would kill the global trade. 342 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 5: In this told us are just about technology broadly in policing. 343 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 5: I have to think it's like the rest of us 344 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 5: has changed the way you do your job your first 345 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 5: days to how you're doing it now. How do you 346 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 5: stay on top of the technology. 347 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 6: So that's one of the things Commissa New York and 348 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 6: I were discussing yesterday, the clever things they've done. We're 349 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 6: doing exchanging notes on it. Keeping pace with that is 350 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 6: really critical to keep pace with criminals. Also to make 351 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 6: best use of the data. A quick couple of examples, 352 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 6: so we've been using sort of algorithms and sort of 353 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 6: data science to identify the most dangerous men who are 354 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 6: poser threat to women and children. So you get all 355 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 6: these allegations of sexual violence, you follow the case by case, 356 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:19,959 Speaker 6: but how do you spot the most dangerous man has 357 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 6: the most big risk out of ten thousands of cases. 358 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 6: Data science does that and then you throw the kitchen 359 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 6: singert getting him off the streets and in prison. Another use, 360 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 6: we've been using facial recognition on the streets to the 361 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 6: UK life facial recognition. I know that makes people here 362 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 6: feel a bit nervous. We've been really thoughtful and quite 363 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 6: about it. We've got eighty five percent public support for it, 364 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 6: and we're arresting over one thousand people year. It's dangerous offended, 365 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:42,919 Speaker 6: wanted offenders. It's so powerful. 366 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I looked it up, folks. I mean 367 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 2: it's it's you know, a Lexus taught me how to 368 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 2: use Google Gemini and I'm killing it. Jasica t shares 369 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 2: one hundred thousand cameras. You we have by this listing, 370 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,719 Speaker 2: nine hundred forty thousand cameras. You have eight times as 371 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 2: many cameras. You have eighty five percent public support from 372 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 2: where you said, sir Mark, what in God's name is 373 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 2: America getting wrong? And the idea of getting the thugs 374 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 2: off the street with cameras? So, I mean, my whole 375 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 2: knowledge of this is slow horses. 376 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 6: I think that's that's a great show, isn't it. 377 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 2: It's a great Is it real? It's slow horses? Horses? 378 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 6: And I hope my personal hygien is a bit better 379 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 6: than the lead character. 380 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 2: When you watch Emma Thompson and down Cemetery Road? Is 381 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 2: that real? 382 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 6: It's not. It's not real. It's great fun, though, isn't it. 383 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 6: I mean, I watched these shows as well. They're fantastic 384 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 6: any more than a doubt. 385 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 2: The wire is real. The cameras work right, that's the battle. 386 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 6: The cameras are fantastic and sort of what they do 387 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 6: is so we have. How about this our homicide solved 388 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 6: rate over ninety five percent of cases we solve. That's 389 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 6: where above American City is. That's partly about technology. It's 390 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 6: partly about great detectives, the facial recognition stuff. We've worked 391 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 6: hard to make sure we're using it ethically and carefully. 392 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 6: We're showing the public the results of the sub dangerous 393 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 6: sex offenders and the wanted people we're taking off the streets. 394 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 6: We've got eighty five percent for that support. So I 395 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 6: think we can in policing make the best use of 396 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 6: bond technology. We shouldn't be scared of it. He's got 397 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 6: to be thoughtful and clever about it, because if you 398 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 6: misuse it, you'll break that trust. And the thing I'm 399 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 6: most proud of what we're doing in trust in the 400 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 6: police is going up, even in this world where trust 401 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 6: in the state is so challenged and there's hostile states 402 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 6: trying to undermine it, and all of this difficult polarized dialogue. 403 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 6: Trust in the met is going up because of the 404 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 6: policing we're doing. Why are you here and here exchange 405 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 6: notes with, say, with Jessica Tisha and other other commissioners, 406 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 6: meeting up with the FBI colleagues because we do this 407 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 6: national cancterrorism work and that's important to sustain those relationships 408 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 6: and talk about case. 409 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 2: So it's like a plumber's convention. 410 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 6: Come out to the West coast as well to talk 411 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 6: to your god Junken. 412 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 5: Disney. 413 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 2: Very good. 414 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 5: What's the biggest challenge for you these days? In a 415 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 5: world where so much change, so much uncertainty. 416 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 6: So keeping pace with the technology, which is hard in 417 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 6: the public sector for all the reasons we've discussed, and 418 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 6: building trust in the world which is so angry and 419 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 6: polarized and all the hostilitybates that go on online is 420 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 6: so so difficult, and economic issues means we're a police 421 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 6: force which is having to get smaller, so doing better 422 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 6: while getting smaller as TRD, but we're arresting one thousand 423 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 6: people more a month than we were a couple of 424 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 6: years ago because of all the clever stuff we're doing 425 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 6: and fantastic people. 426 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 2: Mark I get one final questions critical. I noticed the 427 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 2: BBC's a small news organization over in London. You had 428 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 2: a blistering conversation that you need seventy pounds that's the 429 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 2: currency over there for policing a football teams of Premium 430 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 2: League like they're basically doing their security off your budget. Yes, 431 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 2: as well, what in God's name are you going to 432 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,360 Speaker 2: do about Totenham being relegated? I mean what does that 433 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 2: do north of London if Tottenham is relegated? 434 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 6: So most people outside London will probably celebrate that. 435 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 5: I'm gonna ask and for. 436 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 6: The fan from my jersey told us this, so I'm 437 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 6: not gonna I'm not going to shed any tears if 438 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 6: they do get relegated. I'm most interesting where my team 439 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 6: get into the Champions League this year. 440 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 2: They look pretty good. Villa. 441 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 6: We've got a brilliant Spanish manager in Imra who's complete transformed. 442 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 6: Did you go to the you got the World Cup 443 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 6: coming here is what I'm you. 444 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 2: Did you go to the concert in July at Eston Villa, 445 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 2: the Metal Concert? 446 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 6: No? I didn't think he was born one. I did 447 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 6: once seeing the A couple of decades ago. I saw 448 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 6: Bruce Springsteen at the park that was an amazing We 449 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:36,879 Speaker 6: have to go. 450 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 2: But sir Mark, I have only one thing for you 451 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 2: to understand. John Pharaoh, when he grew up as a 452 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 2: tough kid in Coventry. He has a police blotter. The 453 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 2: things he did in school we're unspeakable. Next time you come, 454 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 2: we'll introduce you to John Farrell of Coventry, England. 455 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 6: He started a few historic clear ups from seeing Crawley 456 00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 6: here with all. 457 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 2: Of the men and women in duty. Stay with us. 458 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 459 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 460 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 461 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 462 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 463 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 2: Jack Jennis suits with us within the Texas, sutly could 464 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 2: be with us today doing a strategy there. What is 465 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 2: the operative strategy amid war? 466 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 7: You know right now? I think what we look at 467 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 7: is both tail risks are opening up right. The downside 468 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 7: tail risk, I think is a little bit wider, but 469 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 7: you also have the upside tail risk. 470 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,400 Speaker 2: So what do you do well? 471 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 7: I think the portfolio here is the strategy is simply 472 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,240 Speaker 7: stay invested, but shuffle the deck a little bit. 473 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 2: Right, We're looking at getting a little bit. 474 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 7: More invested with the US a little bit less susceptible 475 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 7: to higher energy prices. You're looking at maybe a little 476 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 7: valuation count because of the correction we've seen tech maybe 477 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,919 Speaker 7: a place to hide here because it's you know, a 478 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 7: little bit more on the margin side, still decent revenues, 479 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 7: it's really how derating more recently so bottom line of states. 480 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 2: Means it cratered. That's Boston's securities analysts society raid. 481 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 5: Cratered jack about earnings. I mean, before the Iran War, 482 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 5: the focus was on earnings, and earnings were pretty darn 483 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 5: good out there for the quarter, and I think most 484 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 5: companies were pretty optimistic about the remainder of the year. 485 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 5: How do you think is our earnings enough to support 486 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 5: these markets here? 487 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 7: You know, I think we're the starting point matters. So 488 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 7: we're coming in from a pretty good perspective. You've got 489 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 7: margins that are still pretty wide, so we can see 490 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 7: a little bit of maybe room for companies to absorb 491 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 7: higher energy prices that are built into that. You know, 492 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 7: again still up into the right. Maybe we take a 493 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,360 Speaker 7: little bit off that. So maybe you go from fifteen 494 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 7: percent expected for next year to fourteen thirteen relative to 495 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 7: the rest of the world. That's still pretty good. So 496 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 7: when we talk about sort of positioning and portfolios, the 497 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 7: more defensive relative bias I think is still US and 498 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 7: US archs cap in here. 499 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 5: Could let's just say, because we had the rest of 500 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 5: the world actually outperformed the US last year, and I'm 501 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 5: not you know, a lot of that was the weekending 502 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 5: of the US dollar last year, but so you still 503 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 5: feel more or feel comfortable with the maybe a little 504 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 5: bit overweight the US versus the rest of the world. 505 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, and again think about it more from a cyclical 506 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 7: versus growth trade. Right, part of the trade was that 507 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 7: we saw international developed I'll perform. It's because the cyclical 508 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 7: portion of the economy started to reaccelerate. Now there's some 509 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 7: questions about that going forward if we start to see 510 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 7: elevated energy prices for a prolong period of time. So 511 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 7: I think maybe you get the growth story coming back 512 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,159 Speaker 7: into play, and that's where the US I think has 513 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 7: a little bit of an advantage. 514 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,719 Speaker 2: So you're at Boston University and you're in the party, 515 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 2: and there's that oriental rug when you go up the 516 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 2: stairs and all that and you're trying to be smart. 517 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 2: Wise guy, can you explain to me Walmart with a 518 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: pe forward of forty three and Microsoft with the pe 519 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 2: of twenty three? I think across the arc of my 520 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 2: career that started at Folly, you know where that is, 521 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 2: and the arc of my career that's never happened. 522 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, And I think part of this is the maybe 523 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 7: the AI story that's built into that. 524 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:02,120 Speaker 2: Right. 525 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,159 Speaker 7: We sort of had that derating that we were just 526 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 7: talking about anything that was associated with potentially being adversely 527 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 7: impacted by AI. Sell it down self first, ask questions later, 528 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 7: Let's see how this plays itself out. Uh, you know, 529 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 7: maybe Walmart is and maybe in that beneficiary as opposed 530 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,120 Speaker 7: to being maybe eaten alive so to speak. 531 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,640 Speaker 5: I'll get that market wants a higher premium for that. 532 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:25,600 Speaker 2: Where's the biggest delinkage right now of common sense for 533 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers. 534 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,200 Speaker 7: You know? To me, it comes back to that tech 535 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 7: backdrop again, right, what's the US good at. It's good 536 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 7: at innovation. That's one thing that I think we're always 537 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 7: going to be a strong port relative to the rest 538 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 7: of the world. And yet to see this massive derating 539 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 7: in here to me, thinks, are we really going to 540 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 7: see our sort of leadership in that area? 541 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,679 Speaker 2: Given back, I don't think so. Okay, So I'm in 542 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 2: Phoenix and I do want to see, if anything, And 543 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 2: I go to the Giants fabulous baseball park, Scott Steal Paul, 544 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,120 Speaker 2: you told me it's perfect out there. I'm moving there 545 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 2: next week. And they're playing like the World Baseball people. 546 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 2: And a guy named Bragman comes up to the plate 547 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 2: the first pitch, the ball came down somewhere near flag staff. 548 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 2: How much of the Red Sox can a miss? Alex Bregman. 549 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 2: The narrative for the Red Sox just changed. 550 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 7: It's all about pitching and defense and then we'll scrap 551 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 7: out three to two wins. 552 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 3: That's what it's coming down to, Dodgers of our youth exactly. 553 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, Raphael's like in San Francisco way, Hi. Hey, 554 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 2: Alex is like Humpty Million with the Cubs. 555 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 6: Hi. 556 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 2: And we can't put it on Roman Anthony. I mean, 557 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 2: he's not going to do it. 558 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 7: It's the pitching staff. I'm telling you that that's going 559 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 7: to be the key here. If they stay healthy, they've 560 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 7: got four quality starters sound. 561 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 2: It's just my ute, Jack, I think, thank you, Alex 562 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,679 Speaker 2: Bragman with the Cubs, it's going to be something to 563 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 2: say the least. Jack. Jennis Suit's with his lead portfolio 564 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 2: strategists at Texas. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance 565 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 2: coming up after this. 566 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 567 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 568 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 569 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 570 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 2: The newspapers for this morning, Jason try to coming up 571 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 2: here in about seventy eight minutes is all, but right 572 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 2: now the newspaper is much needed. Here's Alexis gustavorus. 573 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 8: All right, March madness is here, guys. And there is 574 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 8: an article on the Wall Street Journal that says you 575 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 8: have to think like an investor to win your bracket pool. 576 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 3: You know what that means. 577 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 8: You don't pick Duke? Yeah, once again, we know this. 578 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 2: Excuse me? 579 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 6: Yeah. 580 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 8: Duke enters the NCAA tournament as the number one overall seed, 581 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 8: and the Wall Street Journal says that's exactly why. The 582 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 8: smartest thing you can do is to pick against them. 583 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 8: They said the Blue Devils are right now the most 584 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 8: overvalued team. Yep, so you bet against them, it's strategically optimal. 585 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 8: They also said there's an extra incentive for shorting Duke. 586 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 8: Two starters are injured, so they're limping their way in, 587 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 8: and the statistical models are inflating or might be inflating 588 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 8: their chances. 589 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 5: One of those starters is coming back for the tournaments. 590 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 2: Don't worry. 591 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 8: Okay, see I knew you're on it the inside. 592 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 5: Well, yes, they're all freshmen. The reason that they never 593 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 5: win since this playing the one and done freshman kids 594 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 5: is because they're kids. They can't pay against men. When 595 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 5: it gets to the time, why. 596 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 2: Do they allow this? We have to stop the show. 597 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 2: Why in God's name do they allow this? 598 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 5: Because they should. The players should get compensated because they're 599 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 5: creating huge value for the university. So they give a 600 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 5: ton of money, absolutely whatever. 601 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: They give them a ton of money to stay around. 602 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 5: If they want to stay, they can say if they 603 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 5: want to leave, they could leave. So it's it's a 604 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 5: it's a fair system. The players are getting value for 605 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 5: or getting paid for their value. It's just hard to 606 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 5: build a team. 607 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 2: That excuse us. I'm sorry. 608 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 8: Well, let's get back to it. Because which team should 609 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 8: you pick? Which sort of begs the question? And according 610 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 8: to the paper Michigan. Yeah, so the Wolverines they say 611 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 8: have nearly the same title chances as do but they 612 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 8: say they are the most value of any team in 613 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 8: the field. 614 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 2: Don't tell West law Fia. To the end of that boiler. 615 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 5: Up, Yep, you who did it exactly? You got the 616 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 5: boiler Makers going on. 617 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 2: I got the boiler Makers going all the way, but 618 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 2: I do have Triple UNC taking them out because Trimble's 619 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 2: been there for four years. Yep. 620 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 8: Next, all right, it is not just investors now some 621 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 8: states are adding gold to their investment portfolios. This one's 622 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 8: from the Wall Street Journal. So some states actually now 623 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 8: have laws on the books requiring them to buy precious 624 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 8: medals as a hedge against economic terminial. Wyoming is one 625 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 8: of them. They spent ten million dollars on gold bars 626 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 8: the actual physical gold back in December. It's now valued 627 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 8: at eleven point six million, so not bad for a 628 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 8: few months investment. Other states also looking at doing this Utah, 629 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 8: West Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia all pursuing legislation to further integrate 630 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 8: these precious medals into their economies. 631 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 3: Look, there are critics. 632 00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 8: Wyoming's governor says it's a liquid golds to but they're hedging. 633 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,479 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a hedge. So I'm not sure. I'd never 634 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 5: heard of them owning the physical goal. Yes, that's interesting. 635 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 8: Wyoming is actually putting it in a building that once 636 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 8: belonged to the Casper Star tribune'sned by Wyoming's reserves, sort 637 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 8: of like, I don't know, it's the Old West, you know, 638 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 8: got that Old West feeling. All right, here's a good one, 639 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 8: especially for coin collectors. I don't know if you guys 640 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 8: collect coinsnies. 641 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, very cool. 642 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 8: Okay, so here's something for you. The US Men has 643 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 8: rolled out temporary commemorative coins to celebrate our nation's two 644 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 8: hundred fifty of the dime. 645 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 3: Is very controversial here. Do we know why? 646 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 8: It's because on the flip side of it, the new 647 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 8: design left out the olive branch, which is supposed to 648 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 8: signify piece. We still have the eagle with the talon 649 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 8: holding thirteen arrows, I guess for the original thirteen colonies. 650 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 8: But they say now beneath the eagle is the inscription 651 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 8: liberty over tyranny, so this temporary design was finalized in 652 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 8: twenty twenty four, before President Trump took office. Some thought 653 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 8: he had something to do with this. The artist and 654 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 8: the US men say it symbolizes the early US quest 655 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 8: for freedom from Britain. But don't get too crazy about it, everybody, 656 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 8: It's only here for a year. 657 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 658 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 659 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 660 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 661 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 662 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal