1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is your weekly 2 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: Washington policy Pulse, the Balance of Power Podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of 4 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming 5 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 1: catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean. 8 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Bloomberg Intelligence Washington Policy Pulse. My name 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior policy analyst in Bloomberg 10 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 2: Intelligence in the Washington DC Bureau. We want to say 11 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: thank you for those of you who are joining us 12 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 2: via the Balance of Power podcast. We always appreciate you listening, 13 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 2: and again, if we can ever be of service, please 14 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 2: don't hesitate to reach out my emails ending ten. 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 3: At Bloomberg dot net. 16 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 2: Now, what I'd like to do today is just let's 17 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 2: first talk about the House GOP retreat that's taking place 18 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: in Miami. So, the Senate is in this week, the 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: House is out this week, and the House Republicans are 20 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 2: having their annual treat down in Miami. Now, there are 21 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 2: a couple of questions and a couple of key things 22 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 2: to keep in mind of this retreat, and the first 23 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: day is really President Trump's statement over on True Social 24 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 2: this past weekend where he said that he was not 25 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 2: going to sign any type of legislation unless the Save Act. 26 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 2: Remember this is the bill that is regarded voting choices 27 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 2: and citizen citization, asserting citizenship requirements for voting, et cetera. Now, 28 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 2: President Trump threw a couple of additional provisions in that 29 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 2: Truth Social statement. He threw in a couple of additional 30 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 2: provisions that were in the Save Act. But there's been 31 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 2: this debate over the Save Act of whether or not 32 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 2: they have what's called the talking filibuster versus the filibuster 33 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 2: versus getting middle of the filibuster. And President Trump over 34 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: the weekend said, look, I'm not going to sign any 35 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: type of legislation until the Save Act is dealt with. Now, 36 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: the Save Act has enough votes probably actually probably enough 37 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 2: votes to get past the House. Look, we're not handicapping this, 38 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: so I haven't really looked at it all that much. 39 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 2: But it doesn't have the votes the past the Senate. 40 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 2: It certainly doesn't have the votes to pass, you get 41 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 2: the sixty votes to get past the philibuster. So what 42 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: Senator Mike Lee at Utah has suggested is, rather than 43 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 2: having the filibuster, they get back to this idea of 44 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 2: a talking filibuster, meaning that you as soon as people 45 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 2: stop talking, that's when the vote can entail. So rather 46 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 2: than an indefinite block by one senator, that senator or 47 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 2: somebody else would have to go onto the floor and 48 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,239 Speaker 2: continue to talk and then eventually you would have a 49 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 2: vote after this. Now, Senator, the majority leader, Senator John Thune, 50 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 2: has not supported this either. He has not supported getting 51 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 2: rid of the filibuster, nor is he supported getting rid 52 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 2: of the talking philibuster or embracing the talking philibuster idea, 53 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: because the Democrats could effectively just junk up the rest 54 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: of the calendar. You can have amendments, you can have 55 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 2: additional questions, you can have a different things, and the 56 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 2: Democrats could effectively have a lot of questions attached to this, 57 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: including questions that certain parties wouldn't want to be on 58 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 2: the record. So Senator Thune has not supported this idea 59 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 2: at all. So enter President Trump, you said he's not 60 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: going to sign any legislation unless the next bill is 61 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: the Save Act. Well, that obviously does a lot of things. 62 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 2: You can't confirm Senator Mark Waynemullen to be the next 63 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 2: DHS Secretary. You can't confirm Kevin worsh to be the 64 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 2: next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. You can't pass the 65 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 2: crypto bill if there were to be an agreement on this. 66 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 2: You know, if President Trump actually stays true to this, 67 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 2: it effectively blocks the calendar and it really slows things down. Now, 68 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 2: for what it's worth, under the constitution, you know, the 69 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 2: Senate can actually pass the bill, The House can pass 70 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: the bill, Congress can pass the same bill, it can 71 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 2: go to the President's desk, and if President Trump doesn't 72 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: sign it within ten days and Congress is still in session, 73 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 2: then it does become laws. So there is a way 74 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 2: that laws can still happen if President Trump doesn't sign 75 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 2: a bill. But a long story, short is is that 76 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 2: we do think the more bigger impacts of President Trump's plan, 77 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: if again holds true, is that it would actually slow 78 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 2: the process down. 79 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: We don't think that. 80 00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: You know, the Save Act, And again we're not handicapping this, 81 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 2: we're not writing about this, but We don't see the 82 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: philibuster going away anytime soon, because if the philibuster goes away, 83 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 2: then it goes away if the Democrats have both the 84 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 2: House and the Senate and the presidency four years, six years, 85 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 2: eight years, ten years, twelve years from now. And you know, 86 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: this is why Senator Cinema and Senator Mansion back when 87 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 2: the Democrats were trying to get rid of the filibuster, 88 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,239 Speaker 2: this is why the Republicans were very supportive of Senator 89 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 2: Cinema and Center Mansion statements at that time. So that's 90 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: going to be one thing they're going to discuss the retreat. 91 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 2: Another thing they're going to discuss is this idea of 92 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 2: another reconciliation bill. So we talked about this last week. 93 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 2: Think of the reconciliation one big beautiful bill, Part two. Now, 94 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 2: Speaker Johnson, just to give you the curtain status of play. 95 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 2: Speaker Johnson on Friday said that they are going to 96 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: talk about this and they're going to try and come 97 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: together on a reconciliation bill. Now, we are at twenty 98 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 2: percent chance of a bill passing this year, and I'm 99 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: still that twenty percent chance. Look, they're going to try, 100 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 2: but a broad bill has The problem of this is 101 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 2: that if you have a bill that goes out there, 102 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: it says, look, we're going to have increased defense spending, 103 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 2: we're going to have some Bombacare changes, we're going to 104 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 2: put some tariff languages in there. Next thing, you know, 105 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 2: every single thing gets added to it, and you have 106 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 2: a massive bill that you have to find offsets. Economic 107 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 2: growth will pay for some of it, but you got 108 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 2: to find cuts. And if you're cutting Medicaid for example, 109 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 2: or Medicare or any type of healthcare relation, well, we 110 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 2: have an election in a few months. It's going to 111 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 2: be very difficult. Oh by the way, the House Representatives 112 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 2: also only has a one margin person vote at the moment, 113 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 2: and so getting all these individuals on board on all 114 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: the same plan when there's all these deficet hawks in 115 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 2: here and you get the idea, is that it's going 116 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 2: to be extremely difficult. Now, look, if you were to 117 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 2: make it a very small, narrow reconciliation bill, maybe tied 118 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: to Iranian defense spending, for example, then yeah, that's feasible. 119 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: But again, if it's a small bill, people are going 120 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 2: to say, well, wait a minute, why can't I attach this, 121 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 2: Why can't I attach that? And next thing you know, 122 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 2: it blows up and it becomes this massive trillion dollar 123 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 2: spending package, which you know, again a lot of people, 124 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 2: the one beautiful bill is not all that popular right 125 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: now amongst the American people. 126 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 3: Republicans may not want to see this going forward. 127 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 2: Now you will hear statements from Chairman Rington the Budget 128 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 2: Committee that he wants to do this, but also you 129 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 2: have Chairman Jason Smith the House Ways and Means Committee 130 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 2: saying this is not going to happen. So there's still 131 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: a lot of disagreement here. And for what it's worth, 132 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: there's not a lot of discussion about, you know, what's 133 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 2: going on in the. 134 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 3: Bill at this point. 135 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 2: So I talked a little bit about Iran's defense supplemental package. 136 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 2: Want to give you an update on that as well. 137 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 2: So we are waiting for the White House to release 138 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: what their ask is in terms of defense spending or 139 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: a supplemental bill for defense spending. Now, the Pentagon put 140 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 2: out a there was Bloomberg News reports that the Pentagon 141 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 2: is asking for about fifty billion dollars. Now, Wayne Sanders, 142 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: who if you watched last week, you saw Wayne come 143 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 2: on and talk about it. Wayne put out a note 144 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 2: talking about what would be in that fifty billion dollar ask. 145 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 2: So if you want to talk about like defense contractors 146 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: like you know, General Dynamics and Lockeed and so forth 147 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 2: like that, If you want to see specifically what type 148 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 2: of missiles that money would go to, you know, certainly 149 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 2: talk to Wayne. We can get your copy of that note. 150 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 2: But we're still waiting for the White House's you know ask. 151 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 2: I've heard five hundred billion, I've heard one hundred and 152 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:12,239 Speaker 2: fifty billion. 153 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 3: We just really don't know. 154 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: But the reason why we're bringing this up is because 155 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 2: when this bill comes out, or when this ask comes out, 156 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 2: then the question is are we going to do this 157 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 2: via reconciliation? Are we going to do this via regular order? Now, 158 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 2: there have already been some Democrats who have said on 159 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 2: the record that they would be in favor of a 160 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 2: defense supplemental spending package. Representative W. Wasserman Schultz, for example, 161 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 2: came on bloomber TV on Friday and said she'd be 162 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 2: okay with this, And look, I think for what it's worth, 163 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 2: you know, a fifty billion dollar ask or one hundred 164 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 2: million dollar ask, that's not much for the Democrats to 165 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 2: really get all that concerned about. And even though you 166 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 2: saw every single one of them, except for just a 167 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: handful vote for the War Powers resolution that came out 168 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: last week. This is a little bit different. It's an 169 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 2: easier vote, it's a patriotic vote supporting our troops, et cetera. 170 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 2: So but the reason why I bring it up is 171 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 2: because when that bill comes, every lobbyist is going to 172 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,239 Speaker 2: be like, wait a minute, I need to attach something. 173 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 2: I need to attach something. And we've already heard folks 174 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 2: on the over the House Ad Committee saying about attaching 175 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 2: fifteen billion dollars in aid to the Iran Defense Supplemental Bill. 176 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 2: So if you're attacking on fifteen billion dollars of that 177 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: and twenty five billion dollars of something else, then that 178 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty billion dollar bill gets all that 179 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 2: much bigger. Now, the note that I put out on 180 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 2: the terminal this morning essentially just said, for that fifteen 181 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: billion dollars in farm aid, I think it gets done 182 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: this year. I don't know if we have anybody on 183 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 2: the call who's really focused on the farming markets, but 184 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 2: I think it gets done. Our college Alexis Maxwell, has 185 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: some really good research about how farmers are really struggling 186 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 2: at the moment, and I think, you know, this comes 187 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: on the heels of a twelve billion dollar announcement that 188 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 2: the Trump administration made the tail end of twenty twenty five. 189 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 2: I think you'll see another fifteen billion dollars. Some of 190 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 2: the folks in the House Ad Committee have said we 191 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 2: need fifty billion, but I think people are talking about 192 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: that fifteen billion dollar number. Le's move away from the 193 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 2: House retreat in Miami and let's move towards the DHS shutdown. 194 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 2: Because if you flew through Houston yesterday, or if you 195 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 2: were flying through Houston Hobby Airport, you may have seen 196 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 2: the lines that the TSA stitckouts have begun, and there 197 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: was a four hour wait getting into Houston Hobby Airport. 198 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 3: My colleague who. 199 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 2: Just flew down from New York said that it was 200 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 2: only an hour to get through Newark this morning just 201 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 2: to get on the shuttle. The TSA line was actually 202 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: longer than the flight from Newark to DC. And so 203 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: the stickouts are beginning now. The TSA stickout is what 204 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,719 Speaker 2: resolved the shutdown in twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen, when 205 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 2: the TSA hit ten percent stickout, that's when you started 206 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: seeing three hours O'Hare, four hours of LaGuardia, et cetera. 207 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 2: The sickouts are actually increasing, and so while there hasn't 208 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 2: been any substantial negotiations over the DHS tactics, if you 209 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 2: will relate it to ICE, I do think that's going 210 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,439 Speaker 2: to pick up next week. So stay tuned and unfortunately, 211 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 2: if you're flying between this week and next week, make 212 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: sure that you get to the airport extra early. And remember, 213 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: if you're flying in from the United States, global entry 214 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 2: is not open. From what from at least anecdotally I 215 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 2: can tell, global entryly is still not open. So TSA 216 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 2: PreCheck is open, Global entry is not so again, but 217 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 2: I think the DHS shutdown gets resolved probably mid to 218 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 2: next week, if not the week after that. Finally, let's 219 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 2: talk a little bit just on the calendar. I want 220 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 2: to talk about the midterms in a second, but for 221 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 2: the last of the stuff that's happening at the moment, 222 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 2: the Senate is most likely going to vote on its 223 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 2: housing build this week. 224 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 3: This is the one that we've talked. 225 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 2: About in the past that would ban corporations from investing 226 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 2: in single family homes. The way that it actually works 227 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 2: at the moment is if you're a fund and you 228 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 2: own more than three hundred and fifty homes, they would 229 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 2: be subject to this ban. But there's a lot of 230 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 2: exemptions in here for bill to own. There's one language 231 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 2: in here related to disposal, meaning that if you were 232 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 2: to build something and you would have to if you're 233 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 2: building a rental community, for example, you would have to 234 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: dispose of it after seven years. 235 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 3: That is somewhat of a hiccup. 236 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 2: But the House in particular is not happy with the 237 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: Senate plan plan came out. It actually includes a provision 238 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 2: to ban a central bank digital currency up until twenty thirty. 239 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 2: But it came out from the Senate side, from both 240 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 2: the Tim Scott, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, 241 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 2: also Elizabeth Warren, the ranking members. So if you imagine 242 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:14,719 Speaker 2: if you have Tim Scott on the same side of 243 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren. It is a pretty pie bipartisan bill and 244 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 2: it actually passed Klotcher eighty four to six. Now, a 245 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 2: couple of those senators have said they voted for it, 246 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 2: but they had other issues. But this most likely will 247 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 2: pass the Senate. The White House is said they want 248 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:30,079 Speaker 2: to pass the Senate bill, so then it goes to 249 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 2: the House, and the House is not happy whatsoever because 250 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 2: they're getting jammed up here. So I expect some more 251 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 2: hiccups the House saying, look, we don't like this, we 252 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 2: don't like this, we don't like this. But I ultimately 253 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 2: think this bill passes. 254 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 3: Now. 255 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,959 Speaker 2: There may be some tweaks to how that institutional ban works. 256 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if there's some negotiations on that, 257 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 2: but eventually that passes. 258 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 3: Now. 259 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 2: The reason why that's important is because next they'll be 260 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 2: able to turn to crypto. And they got to get 261 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 2: the crypto bill done sooner rather than later, because the 262 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 2: legislative window is quickly closing. And that's one of the 263 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 2: reasons why every lobby and every policy maker is trying 264 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 2: to attach stuff to either reconciliation bills or whatever. Because 265 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 2: if you have the housing bill that passes, the crypto 266 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 2: bill that passes, let's say the DHS shutdown bill passes, 267 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 2: that could be it until September thirtieth. I mean, you 268 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 2: have three bills. I mean, don't get me wrong, you 269 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 2: can name some, You're going to name some post office 270 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 2: and stuff like that, but that's it, really. I mean, 271 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 2: there's probably four or five bills that are going to 272 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 2: pass before the midterms, and then that's it, and so 273 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 2: legislative calendar drives up and you're done. So again, that's 274 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 2: one of the reasons why everybody's trying to attach stuff 275 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 2: to these bills. Now, the last thing I want to 276 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 2: do is I want to share my scream and I 277 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 2: want to show you just the current state of play 278 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 2: for the midterms, because we're starting to get questions on that. Okay, 279 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: so let me go ahead and share my screen. We're 280 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 2: going to bring up now this is WSL elect Election. 281 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: These are the prediction markets, and so as we go through, 282 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 2: you know, just keep in mind these are prediction markets. 283 00:12:58,920 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 3: These change. 284 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,599 Speaker 2: But we have the Polly market and we have the 285 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 2: Calshi prediction markets for both the control of the Senate 286 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 2: and the House. 287 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 3: Now on the Senate side, right now, the. 288 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 2: Prediction markets are fifty five percent and a fifty two 289 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 2: percent chance of the Republicans keeping the Senate. This is 290 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 2: a very good race for the Republicans. Most of the 291 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: states that we're talking about that are in play are 292 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,559 Speaker 2: states that either Republicans previously held or President Trump did 293 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 2: well in. You know, just as rule of thumb, remember 294 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 2: one third of the Senate is up for reelection at 295 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 2: any election or any you know, every two years. It's 296 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: one third of Senate. This should be a fairly easy 297 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: election for the Republicans to keep. But as we'll talk 298 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 2: about in a minute, you're starting to see some issues here. Now, 299 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 2: just let's talk about the House. 300 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 3: Though. 301 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 2: You can see here Calshi eighty four percent chance the 302 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 2: Democrats take the House. Poly Market eighty four percent chance, 303 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 2: you know, And if the Democrats do take the House, 304 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 2: it's only going to be by I would maagine fifteen 305 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 2: to twenty seats. The Cook Political Report is who I 306 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 2: rely on. They are some of the best in the 307 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 2: business in terms of predicting individual seats. But remember, this 308 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 2: is a good election for the Democrats when it comes 309 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 2: to the House of Representatives. Because if you've heard me 310 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 2: on this call before, I've said it before and I'll 311 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 2: say it again. You know, think of us politics as 312 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 2: like a car driving down the street with you know, 313 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 2: guardrails on both sides. It never stays to the Senate. 314 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 2: It always goes left right, left, right, left right, and 315 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 2: generally the first election after a presidential election it swings 316 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 2: back to the other side. And so the Democrats have 317 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 2: a really decent chance of taking the House here. So well, 318 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 2: let's go back to the let's go back to the Senate, 319 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 2: and let's talk about these state level races real quick. 320 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 3: We got Georgia. 321 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 2: Senator Osoff is an incumbent, you know, reelection going after reelection. 322 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 2: You can see that the predictive markets eighty percent chance 323 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 2: for Senator Osoff in both cases. Main you have the incumbent, 324 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 2: Susan Collins is facing a very competitive Democratic challenge. They 325 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 2: haven't had their primary yet, but you can see seventy 326 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: one percent chance for the Democrats in Maine. This is 327 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 2: one of the seats that the Democrats would have to 328 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 2: take up if they had a chance of taking the Senate. Remember, 329 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 2: the Republicans have fifty three to the Democrats forty seven, 330 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 2: and there's two independents that caucus with the Democrats. But 331 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 2: Maine is one of those seats that they have to win. 332 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 2: And right now, the prediction markets say that Senator Collins 333 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 2: is in trouble. Senator Peters is retiring in Michigan. Michigan 334 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 2: obviously has a Democratic governor, you know, but President Trump 335 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 2: has had a lot of strength there recently. The markets 336 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 2: are giving it eighty one percent chance of Democrats. So 337 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 2: that's two seats that if you take the prediction markets 338 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 2: to two seats. Senator Tom Tillis is retiring, but the 339 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 2: Governor Cooper is running on the Democratic side eight eighty 340 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 2: three per chance chance, that's three seats. So if you 341 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 2: presume that those three and again I'm just going off 342 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 2: the prediction markets, if you presume those three, now you're 343 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 2: at a fifty to fifty and you need one more 344 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 2: seat if you're the Democrats. 345 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 3: Now you have New Hampshire. Now you have an incumbent. 346 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 2: Democrats most likely keep that seat that doesn't change to 347 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. This is the seat that you have 348 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: to watch. And this is Alaska. I know everybody's been 349 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 2: talking about Texas. We'll talk about that in a second, 350 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 2: but you can see here the Democrat Mary Peltola is 351 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 2: a very strong candidate going against the incumbent Dan Sullivan. 352 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 2: Alaska very much an independent state. Think of Senator Murkowski 353 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 2: running as an independent. Alaska has its own tariff issues 354 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 2: fifty five to forty six, fifty two to forty eight. Essentially, 355 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 2: it's a coin flipped. That's probably the race that you 356 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 2: have to watch to see if the Democrats have a 357 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 2: chance of taking the Senate. Everything else, Ohio Senator Sherif 358 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 2: former Senator Sheret Brown is trying to get back into 359 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 2: a seat. You know, the Republicans again, you can see 360 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 2: here on the poly market side fifty seven. 361 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 3: To forty three. But then go back to Texas. 362 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 2: For all the news headlines you've seen of Texas a 363 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 2: representative of Talla, Rico and so forth, is this the 364 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 2: chance of republic the Democrats take Texas poly Markets and 365 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 2: Kelshi don't believe you know, they have sixty three to 366 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 2: sixty four. So you know, Minnesota ninety percent chance the 367 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 2: Democrats retain this seat. Senator Ricketts gets his seat back. 368 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: Florida obviously going to go Republican. But again that is 369 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 2: really that seat in Alaska is the one that you 370 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 2: have to watch if you want to see a chance 371 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 2: of whether or not the Democrats they. 372 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 3: Take the Senate. A lot of stuff that can happen 373 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 3: between now. In fact, the. 374 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 2: Main primary, for example, hasn't been resolved on the Democratic side. 375 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 2: But again it's one of those things that you have 376 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 2: to keep in mind. So I'm going to stop there. 377 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 2: I want to say thank you because We ran several 378 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 2: minutes over, but you know, we wanted to give you 379 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 2: a taste because we're starting to think more about the elections. 380 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 2: I'll have more thoughts on what the elections actually mean. 381 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 2: I'm gonna put that out in the terminal later this 382 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 2: week in terms of what does it mean for policy 383 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 2: and what it means for the certain sectors. But I 384 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 2: wanted to give you a taste. This is all at 385 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 2: WSL predict Election. We have another one called WSL Predict, 386 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 2: and I just want to pull it. 387 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 3: Up at the moment, just to leave you with one 388 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 3: last thought. 389 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 2: Because they bring in the Calshi contract of when the 390 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 2: Iran conflict will be over by and in the contract 391 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 2: that says will the US Iranian ceasefire b by April thirtieth, 392 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. Last week goes at is sixty five 393 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 2: percent chance the conflict be over by April thirtieth. Right 394 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 2: now it's at forty six percent. 395 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 3: It's dropping. 396 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 2: I want to stop there say thank you very much 397 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 2: for attending. We really appreciate it. If we can ever 398 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 2: be of service, please don't hesitate to reach out and 399 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 2: we will talk soon. 400 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: Our thanks to Nathan Dean Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst, 401 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington policy Pulse. 402 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: For more from Bi, or to join this call live 403 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at bloomberg 404 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: dot net. That's nd Ea n at Bloomberg dot net 405 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 1: and come back to the podcast later today for the 406 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: latest edition of Balance of Power.