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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and.

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Speaker 2: Then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back to reality here in the Monday edition of

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Speaker 3: Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and

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Speaker 3: on YouTube, where we invite you to join us. Search

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Global News you'll find our live stream. We're often

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Speaker 3: running here with big questions about what's going to happen

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Speaker 3: even tomorrow in this presidential race. Of course, we're a

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Speaker 3: week away, a week from today, the Republican National Convention

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Speaker 3: starting in Milwaukee. We'll meet you there right at this

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Speaker 3: time in one week. What happens between now and then?

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Speaker 3: A big question here, as Joe Biden survived the interview,

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Speaker 3: saw it right? What did I see? Eight million of

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Speaker 3: you watched it? Maybe I'm inflating that number versus the

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Speaker 3: fifty million who watched the debate days earlier. The President

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Speaker 3: sends a letter to start off the week, not a

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Speaker 3: dear colleague, but essentially the same thing here you can

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Speaker 3: read it right on the terminal. Pretty fascinating. A letter

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Speaker 3: to Democrats in Congress who are just returning back to town.

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Speaker 3: I am firmly committed to staying in the race, he writes,

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Speaker 3: to running this race to the end and to beating

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump. I wouldn't be running again if I didn't

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Speaker 3: absolutely believe I was the best person to win, he says.

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Speaker 3: And that's not all. We saw some campaigning over the

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Speaker 3: weekend without a teleprompter, and then the big phone call

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Speaker 3: this morning to a friendly crowd. Joe Biden called Morning

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Speaker 3: Joe on MSNBC, where, of course he was asked about

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Speaker 3: this idea of dropping out, resounding hell no is the answer.

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Speaker 3: Let's listen, it's.

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Speaker 4: Not an option. And I'm not lost. I haven't lost.

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Speaker 4: I beat him last time, I'll beat him this time.

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Speaker 4: And this is a guy who, look we talk about debate,

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Speaker 4: look at his performance to debates. He lied over you know,

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Speaker 4: Trump has fifty lies. I mean, look, this is a

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Speaker 4: guy who says ten percent of the universe. Yeah, I

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Speaker 4: want to get into bet he's just a liar. And

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Speaker 4: he hadn't done a damn thing since the debate.

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Speaker 3: Hasn't done a damn thing since the debate, he says,

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Speaker 3: step drive around the golf cart. And we haven't seen

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Speaker 3: a lot of Donald Trump since the debate, But what

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Speaker 3: do we think about what we've seen of Joe Biden.

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Speaker 3: By the way, on the phone there the extended phone call,

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Speaker 3: we all have Donald Trump to thank for normalizing the

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Speaker 3: morning phone call to cable news shows. Just keep on going,

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Speaker 3: they'll never hang up on you. As we bring Jordan

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Speaker 3: Fabian in on the conversation, someone who has spent more

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Speaker 3: time around Joe Biden than probably anyone you're going to

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Speaker 3: talk to today. By that we mean he is Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: White House correspondent, and Jordan, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 3: Bizarre weekend for Joe Biden. I guess, bizarre day today,

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Speaker 3: and it's going to stay that way through another demanding week.

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Speaker 3: I've been saying the real test is actually this week

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Speaker 3: in this NATO news conference he's gonna have to hold

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Speaker 3: on Thursday. Do you agree?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's gonna be the latest or the latest and

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Speaker 5: long line of tests. But getting up there in front

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Speaker 5: of reporters unscripted, you know, even without I know they

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Speaker 5: aired the whole ABC interview, but it's gonna be his

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Speaker 5: biggest you know, cognitive mental tests, as he described it

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Speaker 5: in that interview. He's going to have to hold court

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Speaker 5: not only on his you know, on his future in politics,

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Speaker 5: but also with the NATO alliance.

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Speaker 3: That's a lot of things.

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Speaker 5: That's something that foreign leaders are very concerned with, whether

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Speaker 5: he is the stamina to serve another four years and

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Speaker 5: keep the liberal world order together. And that's a lot

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Speaker 5: of heavy stuff that he's going to have to tackle

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Speaker 5: on Thursday. Well, let's pick through both of these and

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Speaker 5: we'll start with the more obvious that the question of

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Speaker 5: stamina here and the questions that folks like you are

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Speaker 5: going to be lobbing at him on Thursday. I suspect

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Speaker 5: it's not going to be all about how much money

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Speaker 5: our allies are paying it a NATO.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be how tired are you? How do

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Speaker 3: you feel? Are you dropping out? Is it going to

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Speaker 3: be an hour of that?

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Speaker 5: I'm sure there's going to be more than one by

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Speaker 5: the apple, I mean, whether it's an hour, how long?

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Speaker 5: He can't a statis in short though, That's the thing,

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Speaker 5: and he hasn't done extended one of these things, even

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Speaker 5: in the solo news conferences.

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Speaker 3: He's done.

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Speaker 5: You know, it's been more like the twenty thirty minute variety,

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Speaker 5: not the hour. There's been a lot of reporting about

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Speaker 5: how Joe Biden, the first Lady was very upset with

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Speaker 5: that very long news conference he did after the twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty terms. Yeah, yeah, and so since it was an

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Speaker 5: hour and a half or something, right, something like that,

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Speaker 5: it was a marathon. But he hasn't done anything like that.

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Speaker 5: And it's like, we're coming up on two years and

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Speaker 5: he is facing the biggest political crisis of his presidency,

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Speaker 5: and so you know, his critics want to see him

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Speaker 5: do something folsome like that now that cut it short,

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Speaker 5: they mean they could, and that's going to further fuel

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Speaker 5: the worries that he doesn't have the stamina to do

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Speaker 5: this for another four years.

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Speaker 3: Well, so talk to us about what we have here today.

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Speaker 3: I've barely mentioned Capitol Hill his letter. I did read

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Speaker 3: a portion of two Democrats, but we've got what ten now,

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Speaker 3: including four senior Democrats in the House, calling for him

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Speaker 3: to step down, either publicly or in this virtual meeting

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Speaker 3: that the leadership held last night, a call usually held

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Speaker 3: on Wednesdays. They moved it up because of such extreme

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Speaker 3: levels of concern. But it strikes me this White House

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Speaker 3: and this campaign isn't having any of it. That's why

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Speaker 3: he called Morning Joe today. Has any of this caused

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Speaker 3: doubts within the inner circle. It was a preemptive shot

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Speaker 3: across the bow. Definitely.

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Speaker 5: Between the the letter and that TV interview, he knew

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Speaker 5: that lawmakers are coming back from the July fourth holiday

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Speaker 5: of the town, that the questions about his candidacy were

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Speaker 5: going to be multiplying on Capitol Hill, and he wanted

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Speaker 5: to shut down this talk about push him off the

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Speaker 5: ticket and basically challenging congressional Democrats. Listen, you know, do

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Speaker 5: something or get off the stage either, you know, challenge me,

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Speaker 5: come out, you know, make that Nixonian drive down Pennsylvania

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Speaker 5: Avenue and asked me to get out of the race,

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Speaker 5: challenge me at the convention, or get behind my candidacy

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Speaker 5: and let's beat Donald Trump. Because I think he is

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Speaker 5: tired a lot of you know, you mentioned some of

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Speaker 5: those lawmakers have come out privately. He's tired of all

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Speaker 5: these little leaks coming out in the leaks, Yeah about

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Speaker 5: the lawmakers you know, behind closed doors having in highing.

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Speaker 5: He's basically saying put up or shut up, and you know, look,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of questions about whether he should remain

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Speaker 5: in the race, but you can't blame him and that

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Speaker 5: divided party, a party that's infighting. You know, whether or

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Speaker 5: not the nominee has been crippled at this point, is

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Speaker 5: going to have a hard time beating Donald Trump. Press

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Speaker 5: office treating you in any different way than before the debate,

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Speaker 5: or is it business as usual at the White House?

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Speaker 5: I mean, they're certainly on their toes. I mean there's

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Speaker 5: a lot of reporting over the weekend about this word

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Speaker 5: in the ABC interview where he said yes and the

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Speaker 5: good pressuring ABC to change the transcripts exactly. And so

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Speaker 5: this is the level that they're operating at. I mean,

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Speaker 5: it's you know, in some ways you could say they've

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Speaker 5: lost the plot a bit, and as far as challenging

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Speaker 5: these things here and there instead of you know, trying

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Speaker 5: to you know, level set with Frankly, I mean not

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Speaker 5: only members but the news media who feel like, you know,

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Speaker 5: the Biden operation has been less than truthful in dealing

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Speaker 5: with all these questions about your age and fitness, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: Safe to say you've heard from the Press office more

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Speaker 3: often since the debate than you were. Yeah, certainly. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he's in the middle of the hurricane everybody. Jordan Fabian,

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Speaker 3: great to see thanks. After a wild weekend at the

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Speaker 3: White House and on the trail he covers the White

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Speaker 3: House for us here at Bloomberg. Looked for his byline

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Speaker 3: because the next big job here is NATO. The summit

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Speaker 3: starts tomorrow and there are thirty one world leaders other

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Speaker 3: than Joe Biden wondering about this whole conversation we're having

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Speaker 3: right now. We saw Jen Stoltenberg twisting himself into a

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Speaker 3: pressol on Sunday morning television. Be very careful. They're all

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Speaker 3: going to be very careful unless your name's Victor Orbon

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Speaker 3: of course, but that's another matter when it comes to

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Speaker 3: European leaders weighing in on Joe Biden's veracity, and they're

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Speaker 3: all going to be together in the same room this week.

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Speaker 3: If you add the noise from over the weekend, French

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Speaker 3: election and of course a new prime minister in the UK,

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Speaker 3: this ought to be a pretty wild week and that's

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Speaker 3: why we wanted to talk to Andreas Kluth about it.

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Speaker 3: He's writing about it, of course at Bloomberg Opinion. Great

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Speaker 3: to see you, sir Jo. This is a tough headline

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Speaker 3: Biden needs to go for NATO's sake. To what's being

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Speaker 3: said behind closed doors as these leaders prepared to arrive

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Speaker 3: in DC.

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Speaker 6: What's being said behind closed and in front of the

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Speaker 6: closed doors, around all doors is there are so many

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Speaker 6: things that NATO has to worry about, even as they're

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Speaker 6: trying to celebrate something which is seventy five years of

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Speaker 6: the most successful packed defensive packed in history. But on

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Speaker 6: top of all the other worries about Ukraine and so forth,

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Speaker 6: they now have, I would say, and the most existential worry,

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Speaker 6: which is the weakness, the frailty as displayed in the

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Speaker 6: debate on TV, but the weakness of the putative leader

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Speaker 6: of this as US President and now also a host

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Speaker 6: of this alliance, which is Joe Biden. And the alternative

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Speaker 6: to you know, given the uncertainty, what is next for

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Speaker 6: the alliance because of the alternative being Trump comes in,

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Speaker 6: it could be curtains and even if Biden steps down,

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Speaker 6: there'll be uncertainty, although I think it'll be less bad

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Speaker 6: than what we have now is more of this, more

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Speaker 6: of a frail week leadership.

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Speaker 3: How much of this Joe Biden that America seems to

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Speaker 3: be waking up to, since the debate at least is

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Speaker 3: already known among particularly our European allies, he was just

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Speaker 3: a normandy. In fact, he made two trips. They see

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Speaker 3: more of him, frankly than a lot of Democratic lawmakers

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Speaker 3: see of this Joe Biden. Is this a surprise or

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Speaker 3: do they feel like there's been some gaslighting?

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Speaker 6: God there, I don't mean to pile on on Biden,

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Speaker 6: but that they are not surprised. And as you said,

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Speaker 6: they spend unscripted time with him, probably more than some

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Speaker 6: people here stateside, and they've been at the G eight summit,

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Speaker 6: at varies, other summits Normandy. But before that, even last October,

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Speaker 6: they've encountered and of course the same episodes happen. Then

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Speaker 6: he trails off, he mumbles, there are moments, then he

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Speaker 6: comes back, and so they've been worried and thinking, okay,

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Speaker 6: how long can this stone worried.

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Speaker 3: Just the fact that you said that alone is important.

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Speaker 6: They have noticed some of them more and more than others.

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Speaker 6: There are many of them are weak. Macron is weak.

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Speaker 6: He's essentially lame duck. He's lost control of his parliament

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Speaker 6: in Spain and Germany, they're a week. The strongest one

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Speaker 6: is arguably the new UK Prime Minister, But the one

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Speaker 6: that matters is the US President, not because he's host

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Speaker 6: but because the US he's US President, and everyone looks

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Speaker 6: forward to November and then January and what happens next

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Speaker 6: when someone comes in who would like to withdraw if

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Speaker 6: he could, from the Alliance although Congress has made that hard,

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Speaker 6: but could defund, could essentially hobble the Alliance in a

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Speaker 6: hundred other ways just by being vague about Article five.

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Speaker 6: So what happened and if someone if Biden does step down,

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Speaker 6: which I think would be good, as my title said

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Speaker 6: in the column for NATO, because you want to resolve

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Speaker 6: this uncertainty, Well then who is it next?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 6: I don't think that you know, we have nineteen forty five.

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Speaker 6: I think like Harry Truman came in at a very

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Speaker 6: crucial moment in history and immediately showed some of the

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Speaker 6: strongest leadership in history. So it is possible, and there

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Speaker 6: are other good options, but right now they're any kind

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Speaker 6: of limbo.

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Speaker 3: Do these leaders have a feel about Kamala Harris?

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Speaker 6: It could be Kamala Harris or someone else they do,

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Speaker 6: or we're talking just about foreign policy, and she kind

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Speaker 6: of did a debut. She's been traveling, She's been going

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Speaker 6: to lots of summits in place of Biden. He's been

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Speaker 6: good about lettings to get Biden. The Unich Security Conference

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Speaker 6: was a big moment she in terms of the substance

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Speaker 6: the content, they are the same atlanticist, pro allies, pro alliances, internationalist,

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Speaker 6: not isolationist like Trump, not transactionalist, but principles and back

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Speaker 6: in Ukraine, back in Taiwan, sending the right messages. The

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Speaker 6: issue is does she have the knowledge of the experience.

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Speaker 6: I mean that was supposed to be Joe Biden's thing

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Speaker 6: for decades. He knows everyone in world politics. She has

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Speaker 6: started to meet people in world politics for the last

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Speaker 6: couple of years. But she at the Munich Security Conference,

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Speaker 6: she gave a good speech, better than most of her

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Speaker 6: domestic speeches. And if it were her, I think she

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Speaker 6: might well rise to the occasion.

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Speaker 3: As we spend time with Andreas Klouf writing for Bloomberg Opinion,

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Speaker 3: there's so much talk of Trump proofing the Alliance at

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Speaker 3: this meeting. What do they mean by that? What could

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Speaker 3: they actually do?

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Speaker 6: You cannot Trump prove this alliance, which was always in

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Speaker 6: the key was always the American nuclear and conventional military

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Speaker 6: umbrella over Canada, but mainly Europe. If you take that away,

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Speaker 6: there's very little left. What is the one alternative they

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Speaker 6: could work on. It's what this idea has been around

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Speaker 6: since the fifties when the French shot it down over

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Speaker 6: worries about the Germans. It's the European army. So to

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Speaker 6: build a second pillar, a European pillar of NATO. Madeline

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Speaker 6: Albright and Americans until recently were against that because they

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Speaker 6: were word it would duplicate processes, be redundant and so forth.

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Speaker 6: But I think now, given that America wants to under

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Speaker 6: anybody in future presidents withdraw and pivot to Asia, the

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Speaker 6: Europeans will have to form a pillar of their own.

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Speaker 6: And the sad thing Joe is that they won't. They're not.

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Speaker 6: They're going in the opposite direction with populist rising in

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Speaker 6: Europe that want to renationalize Europe as opposed to integrate

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Speaker 6: and form a common defense pillar, maybe even a Commas

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Speaker 6: is fascinating.

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Speaker 3: So against the backdrop of French elections over the weekend,

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Speaker 3: you see that as being less likely because the idea

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Speaker 3: is Europe would then have the end up an army

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Speaker 3: essentially in the vacuum left by Trump, they would Europe.

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Speaker 6: Would have to solve things like who would command this army.

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Speaker 6: It's not just about defense procurement, who would command it?

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Speaker 6: But I'll give you just the hardest right on top,

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Speaker 6: what about the nuclear umbrella? If there is doubt America

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Speaker 6: still has about one hundred estimated tactical nuclear warheads in Europe.

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Speaker 3: Trump could pull those out.

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Speaker 6: Who would defend Europe against Russian blackmail or even the

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Speaker 6: actual use. Only the French and the Brits have nukes

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Speaker 6: within NATO? Would they extend theirs their umbrella over Europe?

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Speaker 6: Would Germany have to get nukes Poland would they have

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Speaker 6: to form a European union? Did this I don't think

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Speaker 6: at the moment can be resolved. And that's why we're

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Speaker 6: at a difficult moment in history.

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Speaker 3: Fascinating and really important that we point you to Andreas's column.

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Speaker 3: Biden needs to go for NATO's sake. Andreas Kluth, great

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Speaker 3: to have you with us here an important week. Let's

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Speaker 3: talk at the conclusion of this summit and see where

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Speaker 3: we are with so many questions about what will be accomplished.

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Speaker 3: If anything more than a photo op. But for Joe Biden,

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Speaker 3: a news conference that'll take place late Thursday. You'll see

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Speaker 3: it and hear it, of course, right here on Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: TV and on YouTube. But lo and behold the best

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Speaker 3: poll for Joe Biden in months. Yeah, we'll talk about

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Speaker 3: it next, only on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron.

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Speaker 2: Oto with a Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: The Monday edition of Balance of Power. I am Joe Matthew,

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Speaker 3: and we have breaking news a couple of headlines here

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Speaker 3: coming from the presidential campaign, in specific to the Trump campaign,

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Speaker 3: with a conference call under way a short time ago,

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Speaker 3: in which it has been confirmed what we've already been

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Speaker 3: reporting that Trump will announce his vice presidential candidate by

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Speaker 3: next Monday. And of course one week from today is

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Speaker 3: the start of the Republican National Convention show. So that

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Speaker 3: shouldn't be huge news based on what we've been learning

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Speaker 3: so far, the Washington Post reporting this morning that has

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Speaker 3: come down to two, most likely jd Vance and Marco

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Speaker 3: Rubio if you believe that Governor Doug Bergham also said

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Speaker 3: to still be in the mix. We also now have, interestingly,

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Speaker 3: our first glimpse at the party platform that will be

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Speaker 3: adopted here as part of the Republican National Committee, and

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Speaker 3: of course, with the standard bearer being Donald Trump, the

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Speaker 3: presumptive nominee, not a surprise to see it written in

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Speaker 3: all caps. We're going to pick through some of these

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Speaker 3: elements here. On the day that Joe Biden decided to

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Speaker 3: pick up the telephone and call into MSNBC and another

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Speaker 3: attempt to try to tamp down calls for him to

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Speaker 3: drop out of the presidential race following his performance in

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Speaker 3: the debate that despite his best showing yet in the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg News Swing statephole that just came out over the weekend,

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Speaker 3: here's a taste of Joe Biden on Morning Joe earlier today.

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Speaker 4: But I don't care what those big names tins. They're

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Speaker 4: wrong in twenty twenty they're wrong in twenty twenty two

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Speaker 4: about the red wave, they're wrong in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 4: And go with it come out with me, watch people react,

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Speaker 4: you make.

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Speaker 3: A judgement, and that's where we start our conversation with

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Speaker 3: Laura Davison, Bloomberg's politics editor, who had a busy weekend.

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Speaker 3: You might suggest your phone's probably still blowing up right now.

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Speaker 3: So it's very kind of you to join me, and

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Speaker 3: it's great to see you. I hope you had a

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Speaker 3: great holiday. This was the latest attempt here before we

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Speaker 3: go through this party platform that we're going to hear

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Speaker 3: about in Milwaukee next week. Joe Biden picks up the

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Speaker 3: phone this morning, arguably calling a friendly crowd here to

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Speaker 3: talk to a supportive broadcaster, or we're going to get

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Speaker 3: more of this. Does that mean that it's working?

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Speaker 7: It definitely means that that Biden is definitely feeling the pressure,

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Speaker 7: feeling a little bit more desperate. There was also a

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Speaker 7: letter he sent to all House Democrats today, House and

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Speaker 7: Senate Democrats saying, hey, look, I'm not going anywhere. It's

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Speaker 7: time to unite, almost chastising them a little bit of like, hey,

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Speaker 7: you know, we're wasting time here.

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Speaker 8: You know, I'm staying put, you know.

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Speaker 7: Then he goes calls into MSNBC trying to reach you know,

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Speaker 7: the broader electorate, you know, Democratic base.

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Speaker 8: And then he just had a call that just ended.

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Speaker 7: Moments ago with top donors where he said, look, you know,

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Speaker 7: we need to stop wasting time. We all need to

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Speaker 7: get behind me. This, you know, is a really critical

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Speaker 7: time for the campaign. Is that you know, if you

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Speaker 7: have a lot of donors in full freak out here,

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Speaker 7: who are you know, deciding whether to withhold donations to

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Speaker 7: the party or give to only House and Senate.

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Speaker 8: All of this is not good news for President Biden.

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Speaker 3: Full freak out is the headline. We have ten now

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Speaker 3: House Democrats for seniors, either publicly or off the record

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Speaker 3: on this call that took place last night, calling for

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Speaker 3: him to step down. He was trying to head this

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Speaker 3: off with the letter that you described this morning. It's

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Speaker 3: two pager, tersely written, I'm going nowhere is the sentiment here,

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Speaker 3: i am not dropping out of this race. How many

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Speaker 3: more Democrats are we going to hear from? I'm assuming

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Speaker 3: this is the prelude to the real headline of how

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Speaker 3: many Democrats in the House following tomorrow's caucus meeting.

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Speaker 7: Yes, remember that that House and Senate democrats really haven't

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Speaker 7: been together since the debate they've been on recess. It's

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Speaker 7: been the fourth of July holiday, So tonight they will

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Speaker 7: all descend back upon the Capitol and there will be

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Speaker 7: all sorts of chatter amongst themselves, kind of polling their colleagues,

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Speaker 7: seeing where everyone is. You know, it takes a lot

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Speaker 7: of guts to you know, those ten that have come

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Speaker 7: out and say, look, you know, I want the leader

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Speaker 7: of my party to step down. If Biden doesn't, you

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Speaker 7: can imagine that they are not going to be on

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Speaker 7: a short list for any sort of special appointment or

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Speaker 7: getting the President to help support their.

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Speaker 8: Bill or call.

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Speaker 7: So we will really see, you know, by midday tomorrow.

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Speaker 7: You know, is this just a small group of outliers

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Speaker 7: who you know, in some cases we're never huge fans

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Speaker 7: of Biden, or are we going to see you know,

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Speaker 7: dozens more potentially come out and say, look, Biden needs

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Speaker 7: to go.

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Speaker 8: At what point that the pressure on.

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Speaker 7: Biden really amps up if he has you know, a

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Speaker 7: good portion of his party saying hey.

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Speaker 3: We need you to go, even as he declares he's

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Speaker 3: going nowhere here. This show of confidence is only good

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Speaker 3: until it's not right, And there seems to be this

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Speaker 3: tacit Friday deadline, How does he do it, Nato? How

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Speaker 3: does he do in the news conference on Thursday? Is

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Speaker 3: that a fair read?

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Speaker 7: That is at least kind of what the conventional thinking is,

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Speaker 7: you know, of course, you know it's not to say,

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Speaker 7: like say he survives to Friday and then there's another

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Speaker 7: incident next week. That doesn't necessarily mean that he's safe.

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Speaker 7: It still will be a persistent issue throughout this campaign,

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Speaker 7: and that is really the pressure on Biden and the

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Speaker 7: problem for Biden. You know, any sort of mistake, any

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Speaker 7: sort of miss speaking, you know, a trip, a fall,

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Speaker 7: all those things will be heavily, heavily scrutinized.

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Speaker 3: For sure, We're going to Milwaukee in a week, as

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Speaker 3: we mentioned, we're going to be talking about Donald Trump's

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Speaker 3: campaign and likely a vice presidential candidate that could potentially

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Speaker 3: give Joe Biden another week's time. So let's focus on

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Speaker 3: Milwaukee for a second. Here, Washington Post says it's down

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Speaker 3: to two jd or Mark Rubio. Do we really believe

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Speaker 3: that with Donald Trump? Does he actually even know? He

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Speaker 3: said it's already in his head or something like that.

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Speaker 3: But he's known for doing what's not expected.

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Speaker 7: Well, and he likes to also kind of kind of

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Speaker 7: keep the tension up till the very last minute. You know,

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Speaker 7: this is really you know, Apprentice two point zero, you know,

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Speaker 7: a game style, game show style announcement here. You know, Well,

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Speaker 7: he has this rally on Tuesday night, Marco Rubio. It's

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Speaker 7: in Florida, Marco Rubio will be there. He has another

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Speaker 7: rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night, and then of course

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Speaker 7: the RNC and Milwaukee next week. So lots of different

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Speaker 7: opportunities to either one just bring all the candidates and

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Speaker 7: have them you know, out on stage saying nice things

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Speaker 7: about him doing a final audition, or you know, he

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Speaker 7: could use these other opportunities to to roll out his

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Speaker 7: his VP pick. But this is going to be, you know,

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Speaker 7: a time for him to shine. He's also very cognizant

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Speaker 7: about the timing. While Biden is having a bad day,

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Speaker 7: you hate to take the spotlight away from your opponent

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Speaker 7: who's struggling. So that's a lot of the thinking that's

434
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 7: happening behind the scenes at the Trump campaign.

435
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 3: Before we bring in Eli Oakley at morning consults, and

436
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 3: these numbers are pretty remarkable for Joe Biden to have

437
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: his best showing against the backdrop of this whole conversation.

438
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 3: Look look at this platform, Republican Party platform for Milwaukee

439
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 3: number one. By the way, these are kind of bullets here.

440
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 3: It's a list all caps. I guess maybe Donald Trump

441
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: wrote this, or it's on the spirit of Trump. Seal

442
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 3: the border. Number one, Stop the migrant invasion. It says,

443
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 3: to carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.

444
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 3: First two on immigration. Three end inflation, Make America affordable again.

445
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 3: Maybe that should be a T shirt. Then we go

446
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 3: down to a lot of other things. Stop outsourcing, large

447
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 3: tax cuts, and it gets to be a little bit

448
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: out there, as you can cancel the electric vehicle mandate

449
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 3: is fifteen for instance, seventeen keep men out of women's sports.

450
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: How should people interpret this platform? Does it matter?

451
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 7: This is basically a summary of Biden's or of Trump's

452
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 7: rather rally speeches. You know, these are the points he

453
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 7: makes time and time again. These are not, you know,

454
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 7: serious policy proposals. This is not, you know, something that

455
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 7: could be turned into legislation. But this is capturing the

456
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 7: essence of Donald Trump and what he stands for. You know,

457
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 7: above those twenty bullet points, there's a little pre am

458
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 7: that's written very much sounds like it's in the voice

459
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 7: of Trump.

460
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 8: You know, this is not a.

461
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 7: Party platform like anything we've ever seen before. The last

462
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 7: time Republicans did one was in twenty sixteen. They didn't

463
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 7: even bother doing one in.

464
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 3: Twenty twenty twenty, which was a big deal of it.

465
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 7: And this is really sort of a campaign document. This

466
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 7: is if you were to compare this to what's on

467
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 7: Donald Trump's you know, website that's been out there for

468
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 7: months on all his policy positions, very very similar.

469
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: So this will be the official platform. This is what

470
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 3: we'll be talking about next week. And Joe Biden's going

471
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 3: to be hitting the road while we're there. He's got

472
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: what Texas, Nevada, that's the plan. Travel while Donald Trump

473
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 3: is in Milwaukee.

474
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,160
Speaker 7: Travel, donation, campaign events, all sorts of stuff.

475
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 8: You know, he's in.

476
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 7: His campaign has been very you know, aggressive at sort

477
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 7: of making sure we know, hey, here's where the president's going,

478
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 7: here's what he's doing.

479
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 8: He's not dropping out, of.

480
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 7: Course, I will add that how this always works is

481
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 7: you can't signal you're going to drop out until the

482
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 7: exact second you are, So that right, you will expect

483
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 7: him to be you know, firmly defiant, you know, up

484
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 7: until the point if he does, you know, announce that.

485
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: He's That's the most important thing. I feel like you

486
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 3: can tell our viewers and listeners today because that is

487
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 3: going to be the case until it isn't people expecting it. Well,

488
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: I don't know. I think maybe I will drop out.

489
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 3: Just aren't reading this properly. So all of these interviews

490
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: have to be viewed in that regard. I'll meet you

491
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 3: in a week in Milwaukee. Laura Davison will be central

492
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 3: to our coverage. There is Bloomberg Politics Editor, and we'll

493
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 3: look forward to special coverage from the RNC as we

494
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: turn our attention back to the Bloomberg New Swing State Pole.

495
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 3: We do this with Morning consult and that's why we

496
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 3: call in Eli Yoakley on a Pole day. The numbers

497
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 3: came out over the weekend and quite remarkable to find

498
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: Joe Biden not only narrowing the gap with Donald Trump

499
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 3: and the states that will decide this election, but in

500
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 3: fact scoring his best showing yet in the most comprehensive,

501
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 3: the first comprehensive look at the swing states since the

502
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 3: debate that was said to be a disaster. So Eli,

503
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 3: welcome back. It's great to have you US politics analyst

504
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 3: at morning consult Are you scratching your head? How do

505
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 3: you rationalize the timing on this poll?

506
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 9: What a time to be alive? I mean, who knew

507
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 9: there's nothing not surprising in politics anymore. Look, I mean,

508
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 9: Joe Biden, all these contests in all these states that

509
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 9: we've a bit now nine times are pretty close. Trump

510
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 9: has a bigger advantage in Pennsylvania, you know, Joe Biden

511
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 9: has a bigger advantage in Wisconsin. But a lot of

512
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 9: these races are really tight. You know, we survey voters,

513
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 9: thousands of voters every day nationally, and we haven't seen

514
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 9: much of a movement since the debate. My takeaway from

515
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 9: that is a lot of this stuff is already baked

516
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 9: in about Joe Biden. I mean, for the last few years,

517
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 9: Republicans have worked really hard to inundate this he's too

518
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 9: old message. A lot of voters thought that. The only

519
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 9: thing that seems different this time is elis and Washington

520
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 9: are starting to take notice.

521
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,479
Speaker 3: Well, that's for sure, and when lawmakers get back, they

522
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 3: could make a lot of noise for Joe Biden. Here

523
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 3: the headline to start at the top, elive forty seven percent,

524
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 3: Donald Trump forty five for Joe Biden. That's when we

525
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 3: consolidate the numbers from the states. But when you look

526
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 3: under the hood a little bit, and if you're with

527
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 3: us on Bloomberg TV, you can see our map, Joe

528
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: Biden leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, very important when

529
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 3: we consider the blue wall here, he's so far though,

530
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 3: farthest behind in the critical state of Pennsylvania. Is that

531
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 3: the most important thing for Joe Biden to turn around

532
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 3: right now?

533
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: Oh for sure.

534
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 9: I mean, if he gets Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, he

535
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 9: probably dons reelection. I think that's why you're seeing him

536
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 9: spend so much time over the weekend in Pennsylvania. He

537
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 9: was once referred to as a state's third center. That's

538
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 9: clearly an important state for him, and Donald Trump knows

539
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 9: that too. I think we're going to see the former

540
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 9: president spend a lot of time and energy there. You know,

541
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 9: Joe Biden has a lot of work to do in

542
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 9: Pennsylvania right now. That's a state that's been a challenge

543
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 9: for Democrats some extent. Joe Biden brought it back for them.

544
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 9: I think showing up is going to help to try

545
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 9: to alleviate some of these concerns. I mean, Pennsylvania was

546
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 9: one of the states where where voters were most likely

547
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 9: to have tuned into all the debate, which means they

548
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 9: noticed this more than voters and other swing saints may have.

549
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 9: And so he's going to have to spend some time

550
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 9: there to try to bring back some of these growing

551
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 9: concerns among voters there that are showing up, and also

552
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 9: try to push back on Donald Trump. I mean, I

553
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 9: think every time I've been on here, I said Joe

554
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 9: Biden's case for reelection is going to be to remind

555
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 9: voters why they didn't like Donald Trump four years ago,

556
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 9: and in this moment where his age has been questioned

557
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 9: in its most dramatic way possible, we've seen that. I mean,

558
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 9: he called Donald Trump a liar multiple times this morning

559
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 9: when he called in the Morning TV, clearly trying to

560
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 9: revive a lot of these fears that voters had about

561
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 9: Donald Trump.

562
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 3: Well, we write right in our piece here, Eli, this

563
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 3: poll could turn out to be a statistical outlier. It

564
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 3: does run counter to the national polls that we've seen

565
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 3: since the debate, and so that's why it's pretty big news.

566
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 3: That's why the campaign is highlighting it. How do you

567
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 3: square the difference between what we're seeing in the swing

568
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 3: states and nationally.

569
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, we have not seen a lot

570
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 9: of numbers since the debate from the swing states. I

571
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 9: think this is the first comprehensive look at these seven

572
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 9: swing states since the late June debate. What we're seeing

573
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 9: in our national tracking that we do every day among

574
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 9: thousands of voters. I just got data back today from

575
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 9: ten thousand voters. Donald Trump is up by two points.

576
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 9: The race was tied before the debate. If we look

577
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 9: at that, and we're seeing this is not having a

578
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 9: massive impact on the electrode. A lot of voters already

579
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 9: thought he shouldn't be running for president. That's a different

580
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 9: discussion than who are you going to vote for? Barack

581
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 9: Obama in twenty sixteen at the White House, correspond as

582
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 9: Cinner whenever Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were both highly dislike,

583
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 9: had this whole riff that you get to choose between

584
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 9: chicken and steak, And that's kind of the choice footers

585
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 9: have right now as the race stands today.

586
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: I'm curious how people thought about or felt about Donald

587
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: Trump's performance. I know they think he won the debate.

588
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 3: Do we have any other insights into what people saw

589
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 3: from Donald Trump, who, of course was recorded by seeing

590
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 3: End to have lied thirty times over the course of

591
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 3: ninety minutes.

592
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, just as we saw some small declines

593
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 9: in the shares of voters who saw Donald Joe Biden

594
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 9: is mentally fit or in good health, we saw a

595
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 9: bit of an increase in the share who saw Donald

596
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 9: Trump as dangerous. And it kind of goes back to

597
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 9: what we were talking about in February, is our voter

598
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,239
Speaker 9: is going to be more concerned about somebody who they

599
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 9: think is too old or somebody they think is too dangerous,

600
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 9: and right now those seem to be weighing on the

601
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 9: minds of a lot of these states, just given how

602
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 9: close these contests are. I mean, one thing to remember

603
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 9: is we feel this survey after his conviction in New

604
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 9: York and after this Supreme Court immunity ruling, and that

605
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 9: is something that I think has really fired up Democrats

606
00:29:56,080 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 9: and concerned independent voters nationally and at the swings. I mean,

607
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 9: this is the first time in our swing state survey

608
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 9: where we've seen Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied among

609
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 9: independent voters. Look voters are complicated people. There's a lot

610
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 9: of things weighing on their minds. And it's not just

611
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 9: Joe Biden's age that they're concerned about.

612
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: Spending time with Eli Yoakley at Morning Consults, which of

613
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 3: course runs our Bloomberg News Swing State pole with us

614
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: every month, and the double haters are popping off the

615
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: page to me here, Eli, if there's something Joe Biden

616
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: really needs to worry about. Large majorities of undecided voters

617
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: and so called double haters say the president should step aside.

618
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: That's a number that could haunt him as he continues

619
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 3: this public exercise in proving people that he has the

620
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 3: mental acuity to do this.

621
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 9: Yeah, for sure, a lot of people think Donald Trump

622
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 9: should step aside too. From this contest. I mean, the

623
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 9: American people are not happy with the two major party

624
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 9: candidates they're facing today. I mean Joe Biden and Donald

625
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 9: Trump as of today are equally unpopular or among the electorate. Clearly,

626
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 9: the American people are not happy with the choices they have.

627
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 9: But we're about to see in Milwaukee next week, probably

628
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 9: in Chicago next month, these two guys elevated. If things

629
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 9: say the way they are today, that this is the

630
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 9: election voters have, and so those double hairs are going

631
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,479
Speaker 9: to matter a lot. And that's why I think you're

632
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 9: seeing the president, the incumbent president, lean into a lot

633
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 9: of these attacks on Donald.

634
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: Trump Reality Check in our remaining moment, ELI, debates usually

635
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 3: don't decide races, do they.

636
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:32,479
Speaker 2: They do not.

637
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 9: They need to douce states of the Union. I mean,

638
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 9: that's where we saw Joe Biden get some of his

639
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 9: better numbers when this race is solidified. But this is

640
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 9: not a normal year, as we're all see it.

641
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 3: It's not a normal year. And I don't mean to

642
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: underscore the importance of this debate. I just think it's

643
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 3: interesting how we're turning away from history time and again.

644
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 3: In this case. We'll see the next one, assuming they

645
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 3: make good on the deal on the tenth of September,

646
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: but we'll have more numbers before then, and we're going

647
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 3: to be looking for trends here. Next time, we talked

648
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 3: to Eli Oakley. Great to have you back, Eli from

649
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 3: Morning Consults in our Bloomberg News Swing State poll. You

650
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 3: can find it again on the terminal and online. Pick

651
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: through the states. Who've got the graphics and the maps

652
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: set up for you there to really understand the numbers

653
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: that we're seeing here in the first comprehensive look at

654
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 3: this campaign in terms of swing state voters since the debate.

655
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you're with us on

656
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 3: the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. We'll assemble our

657
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 3: panel next only on Bloomberg.

658
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

659
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

660
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: roun Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

661
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

662
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 3: Lawmakers streaming back into town today. Democrats, namely who have

663
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 3: a big meeting tomorrow when they get together the Democratic

664
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: Conference in the House. They're going to be talking about

665
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 3: Joe Biden. Members in the Senate will too. But the

666
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 3: House seems to be having its moment because so many

667
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 3: members thought they were going to flip the House to

668
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: Democratic control. Think about what they have seen over the

669
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 3: last year, going back to the dismissal of Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

670
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 3: It's not feeling so much like that now, which is

671
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 3: why we have roughly ten Democrats, including four seniors in

672
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 3: the House, either publicly or privately, calling on Joe Biden

673
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 3: to drop out of the presidential race. Of course, all

674
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 3: in the wake of his performance in the debate, and

675
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 3: it didn't seem like the Friday interview helped a lot either,

676
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: since more names emerged over the weekend. In fact, there

677
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: was a virtual call leadership call last evening in which

678
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 3: the four seniors emerged, including Jerry Nadler, to say that

679
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 3: it's time for Joe Biden to drop now. This could

680
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 3: result in many more. They're going to meet in person

681
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 3: tomorrow when they're back, and we are expecting a letter,

682
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 3: as Bloomberg has been reporting since last week, to go

683
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 3: to the president. The question will be what's the number?

684
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 3: How many Democrats? Joe Biden trying to head them off

685
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 3: this morning with a letter of his own saying he's

686
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 3: going nowhere and a phone call to MSNBC. If the

687
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 3: Friday interview didn't work, how about the Monday interview He

688
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: called in the morning Joe a phoner Trump style, no

689
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 3: camera and talked at length about the campaign, reasserting his

690
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 3: intention to stay in it and win and try to

691
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 3: knock down some of the conventional wisdom about the Trump campaign,

692
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 3: including its support by black voters. Here's Joe Biden earlier.

693
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 4: I don't have the black support. Come on, give me

694
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 4: a break, come with me. Why why I'm getting so

695
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 4: frustrated by the lease Now, I'm not talking about you guys,

696
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 4: but about the elase in the party who.

697
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: They know so much more.

698
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 4: With any of these guys. Don't think I should run

699
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 4: against me, announced the president. Challenge me at the convention.

700
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: Challenge me at the convention, of course, a month away

701
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 3: in Chicago. I kind of funny he had to qualify

702
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 3: the elites, not you guys. That didn't mean you two elites.

703
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 3: Let's assemble the panel. Chape and Fayse whe us Republican

704
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 3: strategist from Actum and great to have Jenay Wartel back

705
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 3: with his democratic strategist partner at ARC Initiatives. Jonay, what's

706
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 3: your thought on this new strategy to just keep knocking

707
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 3: it down? Joe Biden started to raise his voice in

708
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: this interview, was a very different posture than he held

709
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 3: with George Stephanopolis on Friday. Does that work for you

710
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 3: as a Democrat? Do you want to hear him fight

711
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 3: for it?

712
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 10: It is, of course really great to see the president

713
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 10: being a bit defiant, especially in the face of these

714
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 10: increasing calls for him to step aside. I think what

715
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 10: we want to see from the President is that he's

716
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 10: in it to win it right, that he's going to

717
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 10: fight for every vote, that he has the energy and

718
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 10: the bigger to defeat Donald Trump. And I think that's

719
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 10: what you saw in that phone call, in that interview

720
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 10: this morning. And so I think what's important here is

721
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 10: to again look at the president in the days since

722
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 10: the debate, how he's performed on the campaign trail, look

723
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 10: at how he's engaged with supporters, look at the support

724
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 10: that has been coming in for the president, despite there

725
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 10: being a handful of members who are saying the contrary.

726
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 10: I think it's important to watch him in these last

727
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,760
Speaker 10: couple of days. Has he demonstrated that he has the energy,

728
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 10: that he has the vision to lead America?

729
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 11: And I believe that he does.

730
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: Jape, and I know as a Republican you're sitting on

731
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 3: the sidelines just letting Joe Biden do his thing. But

732
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 3: based on your experience in running campaigns, I wonder what

733
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 3: is the more effective posture for him? Is it the

734
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 3: collegial self deprecating Joe Biden poking fun. Hey, I don't

735
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 3: look forward to anymore. Or is it the guy who

736
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 3: raises his voice and reasserts himself as he did on

737
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 3: the air this morning. Well, not to be a lawyer,

738
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:50,720
Speaker 3: but it depends.

739
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 12: I think you have to strike the balance. Certain events

740
00:36:55,200 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 12: and speeches and audiences require the different personalities that you

741
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 12: just mentioned on the trail.

742
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: Though, what I've always liked about Joe Biden.

743
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 12: Is that he is a fighter. I think that is

744
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 12: the posture of public posture he should be taking. And again,

745
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 12: you know, one of the things that this is all

746
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 12: about is winning is the only thing that matters. Right

747
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 12: If Joe Biden thinks he can win and he does win,

748
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 12: that is the only thing that matters. And which is

749
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 12: why you're also seeing this sort of tension in the

750
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 12: Democratic Party because everyone was fine with Joe Biden's mental

751
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 12: state until it turns out, oh wait, maybe he can lose,

752
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 12: and now we're having a big scramble, you know, for

753
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 12: the good of the country. Though the last three years

754
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 12: when the country was in decline, you know, everyone kept silent,

755
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 12: but winning is all that matters. So I do think

756
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 12: that posture is helpful. Though you also have to be

757
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,439
Speaker 12: able to pull off self deprecating when the circumstances called

758
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 12: for it. But I have no problem with you know,

759
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 12: I praised his State of the State's speech, not the substance,

760
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 12: but the fire in the belly. You know, that's what

761
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 12: people are looking for, at least New Yorkers are looking.

762
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 3: For in their Yeah, that's why I ask you, Janay.

763
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 3: Let's talk about the elites for a moment. Biden says

764
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 3: he he wasn't talking about Joe and Mika's the other elites.

765
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: How about we named names. Rob Reiner, the movie director Hollywood,

766
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,240
Speaker 3: has come and calling now a major of course, Democratic supporter,

767
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 3: democratic activist, progressive activist tweets it's time to stop effing around.

768
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 3: Time for Joe Biden to step down. Netflix co founder

769
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 3: Reid Hastings calling on Joe Biden to step aside. He's

770
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 3: given millions i AC chair Barry Diller says he and

771
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 3: his wife, Diane von Furstenberg were no longer supporting Joe

772
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: Biden as the nominee. How does he answer these names?

773
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 3: You can write them off as elites, but these are

774
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 3: the donors.

775
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 10: Well, again, we are a political party, in the Democratic Party.

776
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 10: We're not A. Foulton, So we welcome the freedom of ideas. Folks,

777
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 10: whether they're supporters at the highest level or grassroots volunteers,

778
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 10: are welcome to have opinions. I think that what's important

779
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 10: here is that the majority of Democrats, and many top Democrats,

780
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 10: especially Democrats in these battleground states that President Biden needs

781
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 10: to win again, are supporting him. When we look at

782
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 10: these these polls and these key battleground states that were

783
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 10: mentioned earlier, these polls are tight, and I think it's

784
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 10: no coincidence that so many of the Democrats in those

785
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 10: key states have come out in full thrown support of

786
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 10: President Biden's reelection campaign. So I think what you have

787
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 10: to focus on is are we reaching and engaging the

788
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 10: folks who are ultimately going to be the votes that

789
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 10: we need to win in November. And so I think

790
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 10: that from a strategic standpoint, that is what the campaign

791
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 10: is continuing to do and continuing to focus on and

792
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 10: not focusing exclusively on the donor class, because that is

793
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 10: a handful of opinions, though very well financed opinions.

794
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 9: Opinions Nonetheless, sure Japin.

795
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,919
Speaker 3: We spoke earlier with Elioakley at Morning consult this hour.

796
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 3: Our part or is in the Bloomberg New Swing State Pole,

797
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 3: which brought some fascinating and counterintuitive numbers when released over

798
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 3: the weekend. This is Joe Biden's best showing in this

799
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 3: poll that's gone back to October here with a monthly

800
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 3: check in from Bloomberg in Morning Consult He's losing to

801
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 3: Donald Trump by only two points forty seven forty five.

802
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,720
Speaker 3: And it's swing states here. So interestingly, Biden's beating Trump

803
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 3: in Michigan and Wisconsin. He's trailing Trump in Pennsylvania. But

804
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: I wonder, when you look at this poll and you

805
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 3: consider the public discourse that's going on right now, kind

806
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 3: of the laughing that we're hearing from Republicans, does the

807
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 3: GOP risk becoming too complacent at this moment in the race?

808
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 12: That is always a risk in every campaign. I have

809
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 12: to warn candidates all the time about becoming complacent. And

810
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 12: if we have thought of being you know, we have

811
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 12: thought of a tactic, the other side has always thought

812
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 12: of it, as you know, you have to assume they

813
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 12: can think of it too and not get over confident.

814
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 12: But yeah, you know, I think again on the on

815
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 12: the Republican side, there's also a balancing act of when

816
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 12: to sit back and let your opponents do it out themselves,

817
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 12: and when to step in. I think you saw immediately after,

818
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 12: on a few days after the debate performance, you saw

819
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 12: Trump sort of putting out just enough statements to keep

820
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 12: his base, you know, paying attention to it, but didn't

821
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 12: really you know, didn't really go for the juggular, so

822
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 12: to speak, as he has in the past about opponents.

823
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 12: So I think you're seeing them sort of play that

824
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 12: balancing act as well.

825
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 3: How would you manage them the timing this week, Chapin,

826
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: We've got a Republican National Convention starting Monday, Joe Biden's

827
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: NATO news conference going to be Thursday. When do you

828
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 3: drop the news on a vice presidential candidate if you're

829
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 3: Donald Trump.

830
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 12: Well, probably having a conversation right now within the campaign

831
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 12: about whether that's the day.

832
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 3: Of the NATO thing, the day after, right during or when.

833
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 12: I think, you know, it's a it's ripe opportunity to

834
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 12: steal the news cycle, at least for domestic the domestic

835
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 12: news here in America. So I do think that that

836
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 12: is the perfect timing to announce it in the lead

837
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 12: up to the convention, though the flip side of that

838
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 12: coin is they may want to manage it a little

839
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 12: bit better than that and.

840
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 2: You know, have a big show on a surprise. Though.

841
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 12: I do think getting the most out of it, uh,

842
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,240
Speaker 12: you know it gives your opponent is the best tactic

843
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 12: or the best strategy.

844
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 2: So I do think right around, you know whatever.

845
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,359
Speaker 12: The biggest inflection point during that time, during the NATO

846
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 12: summit is would be when the you know, when the

847
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 12: when the leak would happen or when the announcement would happen.

848
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 2: Just to take the news back. Donald Trump is a

849
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: master at.

850
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 3: That, no doubt, and you do wonder if it's going

851
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 3: to come via a leak. That was great Chape and

852
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 3: Faye Jane Wartel, great panel, and many thanks to you

853
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 3: both for the insights.

854
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:54,759
Speaker 2: Here.

855
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,800
Speaker 3: I will point out two events. One tomorrow in Miami,

856
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 3: I think Marco Rubio. We're supposedly down to two according

857
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 3: to the Washington Post. And then the other Saturday Butler Pennsylvania.

858
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:10,400
Speaker 3: We'll be watching these very closely for potential vice presidential

859
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 3: candidate announcements or leaks from the Trump campaign.

860
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

861
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

862
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 2: Roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App.

863
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

864
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

865
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 3: Back to work indeed here on the fastest show in Politics,

866
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 3: Live from Washington on Bloomberg TV and Radio. As we

867
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 3: track Hurricane Beryl making landfall in Texas earlier today as

868
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 3: a Category one. It has since been downgraded to a

869
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 3: tropical storm, but there are two million customers without power

870
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 3: along the Gulf Coast of Texas and questions about what

871
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 3: this means for our energy infrastructure. In a conversation, we

872
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 3: were a planning to focus on summer gas and oil prices.

873
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: It's taken on a bit of a different wrinkle, but

874
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 3: that's all part of summer. Just ask Bob McNally, the

875
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 3: president of Rapidant Energy Group, is with us right now.

876
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 2: Bob.

877
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 3: We're looking at the price for crude oil, Texas crude

878
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 3: lower today, the majors Exxon, Chevron lower. This is a

879
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,839
Speaker 3: non event for the energy market, Hi Joe.

880
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 11: So far, thankfully it is, and we first and foremost

881
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 11: think of our friends in Texas and those folks without power.

882
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 11: But so far it looks like the worst case and

883
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 11: the worst case would be a prolonged outage of those

884
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 11: on shore, those refining centers and gas processing centers. That

885
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 11: would be really bad. And so far we seem to

886
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 11: be skin missing that bullet, duck in that bullet right now.

887
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 3: So what's the summer look like? With eighty two dollars

888
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 3: a barrel roughly for WTI, it's down one percent actually

889
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 3: today the active futures contract, the White House touting gas

890
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 3: prices and pointing to this decision to release a million

891
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 3: barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Reserve, despite the fact

892
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 3: that we didn't have a shock to the system, there

893
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 3: was no emergency, and so we're talking about this against

894
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 3: the backdrop of politics. Shocker, Bob. What do oil and

895
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,760
Speaker 3: gas prices look like for the duration of this summer?

896
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 11: You know, the market's pretty stable, Joe. I mean, gasoline

897
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 11: prices will more or less follow crude oil prices, and

898
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:28,280
Speaker 11: the crude oil market is probably.

899
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 3: Balanced around where it is right now.

900
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 11: We think we're transitioning from a soggy over supplied global

901
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 11: market in the first half of this year to a

902
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 11: little bit of a firmer one. Right, China is going

903
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 11: to have some stimulus, we think later this summer. If

904
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 11: we don't have a macro accident here, demand'll pick up,

905
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 11: inventories will get a little leaner, so we're probably balanced.

906
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 11: But Joe, the oil market, I mean traders are tiptoeing

907
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 11: through a minefield of risk, black Swan risk and geopolitics,

908
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 11: and a disruption could send oil price is crude and

909
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 11: gaslink sharply higher. And our main concern there would be

910
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 11: in the Middle East in the battle between Israel and

911
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 11: its enemies on its border, not just Gaza, but Hesbola

912
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 11: and Iran and then to some degree Russia. And the

913
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 11: downside risk is macroeconomic conditions and the fragile economy generally,

914
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 11: so a lot of risk. But if we avoid black swans,

915
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 11: were probably stable. As for the spr thing, I mean,

916
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 11: selling off the Northeast Preserve was a kind of a

917
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 11: joke for oil supply. That's about a morning's worth of

918
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 11: gasoline demand up in the Northeast. They were going to

919
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 11: get rid of that thing anyway, so that was really

920
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 11: a nothing burder.

921
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 3: Well, it's kind of surprising when we're at three fifty, right,

922
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,320
Speaker 3: Triple a's got it said, a national average three fifty

923
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 3: a gallon, we were at three fifty three a year ago.

924
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 3: Seems like kind of a non factor for the Biden

925
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 3: administration right now, unless maybe you're right, if we're looking

926
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 3: at the potential for a black swan, would Israel engaging

927
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,800
Speaker 3: Hesbela on a real war fulfill that definition.

928
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 11: I think it would because unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah

929
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 11: is a strategic arm of Iran, and we don't think

930
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 11: Iran would open up against the United States and its

931
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 11: allies in the Gulf full Bore, but they would likely

932
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 11: harass ships and threaten US with a supply loss and

933
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 11: a price increase during an election year were Israel to

934
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 11: invade Lebanon go after Hesbola. So it's a risk. The

935
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 11: market's been pretty skeptical about that so far. One reason

936
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 11: we're a little lower today in oil prices is there's

937
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 11: more news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Humas,

938
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 11: which could also then lead to a ceasefire with Hesbella.

939
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 11: So geopolitics are in the market, but in a soft way,

940
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:43,800
Speaker 11: I'd say.

941
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 3: Right now, yep, fascinating. Bob McNally is the president of

942
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 3: Rapid and Energy Group with us live on Bloomberg TV

943
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 3: and Radio. And I want to point you, Bob to

944
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 3: the new Republican Party platform that was released today ahead

945
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 3: of next week's Republican National Convention. There's a lot of

946
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 3: stuff on here about the border, about inflation. I'm not

947
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,399
Speaker 3: going to pull you into any of that. But number

948
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 3: four on this list of bullets here make America the

949
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 3: dominant energy producer in the world by far, it says

950
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 3: exclamation point. And I'm wondering how we're defining this now,

951
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: because we already know, when we've established here, that the

952
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:27,799
Speaker 3: US is pumping more oil right now than it ever has.

953
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 3: And as you look at the numbers here in terms

954
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 3: of production and consumption, we're far and away the leader.

955
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 3: How would you fulfill that then, or how would you

956
00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:42,439
Speaker 3: define being the dominant energy producer in the world. Aren't

957
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 3: we already?

958
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,319
Speaker 11: You know we are for oil and gas, we are

959
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 11: top in the world now. If you define it to

960
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 11: include electricity, then we rival China sometimes they're a little

961
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 11: ahead of us. But if we talk about primary energy

962
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 11: production energy you know, flowing from the ground or produce

963
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 11: in a primary sense, the United States is number one

964
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 11: I think perhaps, you know, keep us the number one

965
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 11: dominant energy superpower is probably a little more accurate than then.

966
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 2: Get us there.

967
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 11: But you know, Joe stepping back, I think the left

968
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 11: tends to overstate how much policy drives demand. Like the

969
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,720
Speaker 11: left thinks we're going to have peak demand by twenty thirty,

970
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 11: and then the right perhaps thinks that policy has a

971
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 11: bigger impact on supply than it does. I think there's

972
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 11: a little bit of a wishful thinking and overstatement on

973
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 11: both sides. The end of the day, outcomes, even our

974
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 11: dominant energy position is not due mainly to policy. It's

975
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 11: due to structural factors, the macroeconomy, the industry itself, innovators,

976
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:47,800
Speaker 11: producers of energy, the industry reacting to signals, to investment,

977
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,800
Speaker 11: and so forth. Those are the factors that drive outcomes,

978
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 11: not policy. Final thing just on this, perhaps the one

979
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 11: thing on policy is it can do harm. It can

980
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 11: do harm, especially on trade. If you look at the

981
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:03,280
Speaker 11: last big success we had as a country bipartisan energy success,

982
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 11: it was when President Obama, working with Republicans in Congress,

983
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 11: got rid of the crude oil Export Band twenty fourteen

984
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,359
Speaker 11: twenty fifteen. We needed that to save the sha away

985
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:15,320
Speaker 11: industry just the same way going forward, a return to

986
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 11: export restrictions that could hurt productions. So policy can do harm,

987
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 11: but it's otherwise hard to improve on a good thing

988
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 11: we already have going here.

989
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 3: This is really important as we try to figure out

990
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 3: what a Trump two point zero would mean for the

991
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 3: energy markets versus what we've seen from Joe Biden's first term. Bob,

992
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 3: you got off easy. I didn't even ask you what

993
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 3: you thought of the debate.

994
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 11: Wow, you know what.

995
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 9: I was at band practice.

996
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 11: I was doing rock and roll. I didn't even watch

997
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 11: the debate, and I'm in a way glad I didn't.

998
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 3: But I'll tell you what.

999
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:51,879
Speaker 11: We upped our chances for our clients and President Trump

1000
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 11: winning after that debate.

1001
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 9: So we're all in.

1002
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 11: It's a sensitive situation right now. I will say, if

1003
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris steps forward, Joe, she has promised to ban fracking.

1004
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 11: Now she walked that back when she joined the Biden ticket.

1005
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 11: But if Kamala Harris moves forward, I think you and

1006
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 11: I are going to be talking in a few weeks

1007
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 11: about whether the whether the next president might try and

1008
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 11: ban fracking indirectly or directly.

1009
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 3: You didn't even have to watch it. Bob McNally, President

1010
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 3: Rapidan Energy, it's great to see you, Bob. Thank you

1011
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 3: for being with us. Thanks for listening to the Balance

1012
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 3: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

1013
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

1014
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 3: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

1015
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 3: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.