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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: I'm an amazed to show for everybody today of Crystal

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Speaker 3: daby Doo.

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Speaker 2: We've got some new reporting from Jeremy ska Hill about

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Speaker 2: what exactly is the truth behind these alleged negotiations that

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Speaker 2: Trump touted between US and Iran and break that down

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Speaker 2: for you. Also treat a parsi digging into just how

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Speaker 2: much money Iran is actually making off of this conflict

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Speaker 2: that might be surprising to a lot of people.

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Speaker 4: Kind of reminds me a.

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Speaker 2: Little bit of the Russian Ukraine war situation, So break

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Speaker 2: that down. Revelations that apparently some people are getting very

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Speaker 2: rich off of Trump's market timed announcement yesterday, so and

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Speaker 2: you know, enforcement apparently doesn't exist anymore. So that's the

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Speaker 2: thing that's happening. Brandon Wikerd is going to join us

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Speaker 2: again to talk about the troops that are being moved

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Speaker 2: into the region and what they could be used for.

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Speaker 2: Top Israeli politician is pushing for annexation in Lebanon as

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Speaker 2: part of the Greater Israel project. This is all unfolding

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Speaker 2: against a backdrop of mass programs in the West Bank,

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Speaker 2: horrifying scenes there, airport chaos as Trump blocks a TSA deal,

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Speaker 2: And we're going to take a look at the use

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Speaker 2: of AI in the Iran war and also the just

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Speaker 2: bizarro world where two of the three leaders heads of

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Speaker 2: state here have been rumored to be dead and actually

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Speaker 2: just be AI. So you already can see this destabilization

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Speaker 2: of reality that's happening in real time.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly right.

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Speaker 3: Thank you everybody subscribing to the show Breakingpoints dot com.

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Speaker 3: If you're able to support us, we deeply appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: Also a call to all of our YouTube subscribers. We

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Speaker 3: got like fifty thousand to go to two million. All right,

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Speaker 3: we can all sleep easy at two million, so two

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Speaker 3: million subscribe. Let's let's just get it done. Let's get

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Speaker 3: it done, you know. I just it's one of those

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Speaker 3: I never thought it would happen.

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Speaker 1: I really did it, and now here we are. We're

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Speaker 1: on the verge.

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Speaker 3: So we're at one point nine five million, So let's

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Speaker 3: get it done.

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Speaker 1: Hit subscribe to the YouTube.

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Speaker 4: Help me catch up with Kyle.

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Speaker 2: All right, what's he at? My marital pride is on

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Speaker 2: the line. He's at two point two.

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Speaker 1: But he's had years. He's like a six start, you know.

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Speaker 2: So it's time for us to take the lead again.

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Speaker 4: Guys, come on, okay, it's time for us to take

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Speaker 4: the lead.

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Speaker 3: Hit the subscribe button on YouTube please really helps us out.

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Speaker 3: If you're listening to this as a podcast, share an

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Speaker 3: episode with a friend really helps other people find the show.

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Speaker 3: As Chrystl said, though, let's go ahead and start with

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Speaker 3: these so called negotiations.

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Speaker 1: Do they even really exist?

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Speaker 3: While our friend Jeremy Scahill over at drop site News

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Speaker 3: spend a lot of time speaking with the Iranians, doing

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Speaker 3: some reporting here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 5: The most breaking stuff I have for you is that

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Speaker 5: Trump today post on truth Social that there's been this

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Speaker 5: breakthrough that he's pausing his threat to bomb the Iranian

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Speaker 5: electrical grid and other energy infrastructure because there have been

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Speaker 5: these talks going on between the United States and Iran.

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Speaker 5: And Trump implies that he has some secret squirrel that

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Speaker 5: he's talking to in Iran, and he doesn't want to

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Speaker 5: name who it is because he doesn't want that person

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Speaker 5: to be killed. It's unclear does he mean by Israel

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Speaker 5: or by the Iranians, you know, But what I'm told

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Speaker 5: is that there have been no negotiations direct negotiations with

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Speaker 5: the United States, and that what the Iranian officials are

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Speaker 5: telling me is that every time a third country comes

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Speaker 5: to Iran and they say the United States wants to talk,

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Speaker 5: Iran says, let us explain to you our conditions. And

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Speaker 5: in short, what the Iranians are saying is that they

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Speaker 5: will not agree to the kind of ceasefire that took

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Speaker 5: place last June after the so called Twelve Day War,

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Speaker 5: because the Iranians view that as having been a gimmick

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Speaker 5: to buy the United States in Israel time to re

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Speaker 5: arm to reposition and then come back in with this

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Speaker 5: full blown war that they launched on February twenty eighth.

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Speaker 5: So they're saying they won't go for just a ceasefire

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Speaker 5: that doesn't have conditions attached to it. They also want

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Speaker 5: any cessation of the war not only to apply to Iran,

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Speaker 5: but to apply to two other fronts of battle, as

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Speaker 5: the Iranians see at Iraq as well as Lebanon, where

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Speaker 5: the Israelis are increasingly engaged in ground operations, very heavy bombing.

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Speaker 5: Has Blah, which Israel had said was wiped out, has

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Speaker 5: been launching dozens upon dozens of rockets every single day

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Speaker 5: into Israel. So they want those two countries also to

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Speaker 5: be party to this ceasefire deal. They're also saying that

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Speaker 5: they want reparations paid by the United States, and they

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Speaker 5: want Israel to pay, but they don't want Israel to

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Speaker 5: pay directly. They want that to happen through the United

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Speaker 5: States because they don't want to take anything directly from Israel.

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Speaker 3: Good update there from Jeremy on the negotiations, and he's

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Speaker 3: exactly right from everything that we've been able to figure out.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one and put this up

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Speaker 3: here on the screen. So basically, for the best we

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Speaker 3: can tell, here's what happened the last couple of days.

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Speaker 3: Two days prior Sunday, very early morning our time, the Turks,

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Speaker 3: the Egyptians, and several other countries gathered in Egypt.

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Speaker 1: Diplomats from those countries.

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Speaker 3: They were able to make contact with the Iranians, and

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Speaker 3: obviously they're also speaking to the United States. The Pakistanis

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Speaker 3: were party to these talks as well. The Turks in

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Speaker 3: particular have had a better relationship with the Iranians. They've

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Speaker 3: been talking quite a bit to several of the people

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Speaker 3: over there.

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Speaker 1: They have been.

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Speaker 3: Reaching out to them about what potential peace deal would

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Speaker 3: actually look like.

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Speaker 1: The Iranian line is very simple.

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Speaker 3: A cessation of all hostilities, not now, but forever, as in,

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Speaker 3: we need a total and a final peace to this conflict. Second,

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Speaker 3: we will demand some reparation of some kind, either in

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Speaker 3: payments or in sanctions relief as a result of this war.

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Speaker 3: The United States line, the Egyptians and the Turks have

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Speaker 3: been calling the United States. This is what eventually caused

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Speaker 3: Trump to Taco and to say that he was calling

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Speaker 3: and extending his five day deadline. Off the United States line.

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Speaker 3: Remains today, no ballistic missiles, no regional proxies, no nuclear program. Now, remember,

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Speaker 3: on the nuclear program, they've already said that they're not

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Speaker 3: going to pursue a nuclear program. But on the ballistic

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Speaker 3: missile front, and especially on the regional proxy front, those

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Speaker 3: two it's a non starter. Regional proxy is already a

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Speaker 3: nebulous term.

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Speaker 1: It means nothing. Well, let's talk about the ballistic missile.

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Speaker 1: I mean, really think about this.

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Speaker 3: You are in a war and the other side says, well,

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Speaker 3: we will stop shooting you if you just give up

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Speaker 3: all your bullets.

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Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? All right?

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Speaker 3: And by the way, the bullet that's the only credible

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Speaker 3: deterrent that you actually have, the only ability to extend

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Speaker 3: and project power, have some deterns, have to be able

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Speaker 3: to extract some cost from the enemy and its allies.

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Speaker 3: Would you give up your missile program five years of

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Speaker 3: a missile basically giving up not only missiles but all

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Speaker 3: of your production.

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Speaker 1: Who would be stupid enough to sign up for that deal?

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Speaker 3: Oh and by the way, you've been bombed twice under

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Speaker 3: the cover of diplomacy. So this is where things now

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Speaker 3: currently stand. Now, a lot of things could change, So

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Speaker 3: let's put a three up here on the screen. I

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Speaker 3: do want to be clear, there are efforts right now

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Speaker 3: by the Pakistanis. So here's from dropsite. Pakistan is emerging

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Speaker 3: as the key back channel. They have positioned themselves as

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Speaker 3: the central intermediary between Washington and Tehran, various outlets confirming

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Speaker 3: active efforts to facilitate the conflict. The Financial Times the

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Speaker 3: senior Pakistani officials have been relaying messages between Tehran and Witkoff,

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Speaker 3: with the Prime Minister speaking several times with the President

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Speaker 3: of Iran as well. Reuters had said that the Vice President,

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Speaker 3: Steve Wikoff and Jared Kushner would expect to meet them

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Speaker 3: in Islamabad potentially this week, but again there's been no confirmation.

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Speaker 3: There are people who are out there posting jets that are.

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Speaker 1: On their way totally wrong.

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Speaker 3: I actually confirmed it. It had nothing to do with that.

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Speaker 3: It was a Pentagon official, Bridge Cole. He was on

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Speaker 3: his way to India. He's not going to Pakistan's pre

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Speaker 3: scheduled trip already had been announced. Has nothing to do

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Speaker 3: with these potential negotiations. So that's where we stand.

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Speaker 1: As of right now.

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Speaker 3: We are nowhere closer to any sort of a peace deal,

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Speaker 3: and in fact, what you really see is a desperation

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Speaker 3: on Trump's behalf on Trump's on Trump's side to portray

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Speaker 3: the reality of this while giving nothing on the back end.

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Speaker 3: And that's why I think setting the stage for this

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Speaker 3: while there's this kabuki going on to try and prop

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Speaker 3: up market prices and crude oil futures, while thousands of

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Speaker 3: ground troops remain on their way to the region, which

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Speaker 3: we'll talk about with Brandon. What have we learned now

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Speaker 3: under Venezuela and under Iran, follow the carrier, strike groups,

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Speaker 3: follow the troops. That normally is the precursor to military action,

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Speaker 3: no matter what nonsense that he's saying out there in public.

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Speaker 3: So I just want to be very clear, there does

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Speaker 3: not appear to be any breakthrough whatsoever in these talks.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Iranians are sending back here are what

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Speaker 2: our demands are. And as much as you might think

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Speaker 2: the Iranian demands sound delusional things like reparations, their demands

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Speaker 2: are actually much less delusional than the American demands are

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Speaker 2: at this point because from the Iranian perspective, they're like,

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Speaker 2: we're winning this war, Like you just had to taco.

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Speaker 2: You threatened to blow up our entire electrical grid. We

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Speaker 2: were like, all right, bet then we'll blow up you know,

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Speaker 2: various assets in the region.

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Speaker 4: And Trump, just before the markets was opened, was like, well,

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Speaker 4: let's pill.

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Speaker 2: Us press pause for five days now. I'm continue to

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Speaker 2: be of the opinion, and I think Saga, based on

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Speaker 2: his commis just now, is also of the opinion that

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Speaker 2: a lot of this is just buying time for Trump

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Speaker 2: to you know, amass these additional forces in the region

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Speaker 2: once again using a lleged diplomacy. This diplomacy doesn't even exist.

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Speaker 2: It's fictional diplomacy as a ruse in order to you know,

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Speaker 2: pursue whatever next escalation he wants to pursue.

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Speaker 4: And then meantime, by the way, the war is ongoing.

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Speaker 2: It's not like, you know, Israel struck within Iran yesterday

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Speaker 2: there were and then Iran struck back. There were blackouts

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Speaker 2: reported in Kuwait. They were able to hit inside of

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Speaker 2: Tel Aviv. So this war continues. You know, while this

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Speaker 2: supposed cease five day ceasefire once again time for the

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Speaker 2: markets to close on Friday, I think we've seen once again,

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Speaker 2: you know, the thing that released does scare Trump is

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Speaker 2: the bond markets, and that was a big problem, probably

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Speaker 2: even a larger issue for him in the immediate term

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Speaker 2: than the oil price of oil per barrel. So that's

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Speaker 2: where we are. And here's the other piece I go.

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Speaker 2: I want to go ahead and put a nine up

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Speaker 2: on the screen. This is from treats of Parsi, who

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Speaker 2: did some digging into the war economy for Iran, and

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Speaker 2: what he find may really surprise you, he says. Energy

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Speaker 2: industry insider in Iran tells me the following, and it

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Speaker 2: is stunning. Before the war, Iran produced just shy of

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Speaker 2: one point one million barrels of oil per day and

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Speaker 2: sold it at sixty five dollars per barrel minus an

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Speaker 2: eighteen dollars discount, so roughly forty seven dollars.

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Speaker 4: Today it produces one point.

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Speaker 2: Five million barrels a day, so more, and sells it

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Speaker 2: at one hundred and ten dollars with only a two

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Speaker 2: to four dollar discount.

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Speaker 4: So they're producing more and they're selling.

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Speaker 2: It at a vastly elevated price. This, he says, does

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Speaker 2: not include petrochemical sales that not only have increase, but

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Speaker 2: are now being sold to a larger set of customers.

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Speaker 2: Compared to before the war. Moreover, Iran is receiving payments

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Speaker 2: through new mechanism that bypass the UAE which were set

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Speaker 2: up after the June war. In essence, and this is

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Speaker 2: really important to understand, Trump and Israel's war has ended

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Speaker 2: up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief. That means Iran

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Speaker 2: is all the less incentivized to end the war unless

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Speaker 2: the agreement provides Iran with formal sanctions relief. So far,

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Speaker 2: to the contrary of the idea that they were going

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Speaker 2: to decimate Iran's economy and it's going to be a

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Speaker 2: disaster and they're going to have all this economic pain, No,

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Speaker 2: they're making more money, more money because of the war.

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Speaker 2: And of course, you know, obviously they continue to control

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Speaker 2: the Strait of Horror Moves. And apparently what was not anticipated,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Trump didn't anticipate they would close the Straight

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Speaker 2: of hor Moves at all. But certainly what was not

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Speaker 2: gained out and anticipated appears to be the fact that

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Speaker 2: they'd say, no, no, we're not actually closing the Straight

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Speaker 2: of Horror Moves.

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Speaker 4: We're just closing it for you.

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Speaker 2: We're still going to sell our oil and if you

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Speaker 2: want to come through and you want to pay our

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Speaker 2: two million dollar toll, and you want this to be

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Speaker 2: denominated in Chineseyan, come on down, We're happy to have

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Speaker 2: your business. And so this has created a very unlikely

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Speaker 2: dynamic here where, you know, again, in terms of putting

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Speaker 2: pressure on the Iranians to get them for some sort

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Speaker 2: of concessions from them, we are in the total opposite

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Speaker 2: land right now. The US would have to make some

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Speaker 2: serious concessions right now if they wanted to end this war,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not even sure it's possible at this point,

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Speaker 2: because I mean, number one, if Trump just like withdrawed

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Speaker 2: in humiliation, it would basically be the end of the

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Speaker 2: American empire, you know, total humility, to certainly be the

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Speaker 2: end of his presidency. But number two, Iran needs those

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Speaker 2: guarantees that we're not going to be back here again

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Speaker 2: in the near future, and that part of how they

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Speaker 2: get that guarantee is by exacting a severe price so

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Speaker 2: that not just Trump, but every future American president understands, oh,

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Speaker 2: this is not a good person.

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Speaker 1: Is part of the problem.

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Speaker 3: We're locked in a real battle of bad incentives because

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Speaker 3: what you could actually hear and treat his voice yesterday

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Speaker 3: he's afraid that the Iranians think that they're riding too

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Speaker 3: high right now, Yeah, that they're going to keep president.

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Speaker 3: And let's be honest, they are right and high. So

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Speaker 3: just this morning, India's Reliance confirmed one of the large

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Speaker 3: it's like, one of the largest industrial conglomerates in India.

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Speaker 3: They just purchased five million Indian barrels of Iranian formerly

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Speaker 3: sanctioned oil.

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Speaker 1: A bunch of ships.

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Speaker 3: That just passed through the Straits of hor Moves straight

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Speaker 3: on their way to the New Delhi. All right, and

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Speaker 3: so the Indians and again, you know, look, it's not

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Speaker 3: just my heritage. I just respect the way these people

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Speaker 3: conduct business. They're like, look, we're not with America, we're

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Speaker 3: not with Russia. We're in it for us. There's cheap

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Speaker 3: oil on the market. We're gonna buy it.

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Speaker 1: What they what did they do?

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Speaker 3: They're not party to the war. They called the Iranians up.

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Speaker 3: Modi's like, my dear friend. The president of Iran, every

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Speaker 3: leader is his dear friend. He calls them up and

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Speaker 3: he's like, hey, I need my ships through, I need oil.

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Speaker 1: They're like, okay, no worries.

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Speaker 2: Although I think the US also the US also gave

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Speaker 2: them the green lights.

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Speaker 1: Oh that too.

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Speaker 3: But I'm saying, if you put all this together, you

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Speaker 3: can clear you can clearly, very see here that other

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Speaker 3: countries are exploiting and going end loops, you know, to

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Speaker 3: the extent that they can around the United States. So

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Speaker 3: what does Iran feel. Well, they're in the pole position.

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Speaker 3: They're able to command the straight they're able to demand.

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Speaker 3: In some cases there are reports of people paying two

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Speaker 3: million dollars per passage, which is approximately one dollar per barrel.

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Speaker 1: Easy.

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Speaker 3: They'll be able to reclaim that in an insurance surcharge

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Speaker 3: later on down the line. They actually feel more emboldened.

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Speaker 3: If you're the IRGC, you've established some credible deterrence. You've

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Speaker 3: gotten rid of this idiot Supreme leader eighty six year old.

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Speaker 3: He was always holding us back. Now we have our

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Speaker 3: new guy who injured whatever. Basically, who's controlled?

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Speaker 4: I mean, the IRGC is running the show, of course.

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Speaker 1: And here's the other thing.

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Speaker 3: What have the people been telling us now for years

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Speaker 3: the IRGC are corrupt goons while the rest of the

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Speaker 3: country starves. They get rich as treated. They're getting richer,

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Speaker 3: They're more rich than ever before. They're more in control

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Speaker 3: of the company, or of the country. They control all

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Speaker 3: the political facets and they're getting filthy rich. Now off

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Speaker 3: these oil sanctions, would you surrender in that snart Now listen,

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Speaker 3: they could be destroyed by a US ground invasion, but

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Speaker 3: that's coming on later. And then, just to show you

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Speaker 3: all how like the control that they have, let's put

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Speaker 3: a four up here on the screen. So the speaker

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Speaker 3: of the Iranian Parliament, I'm not.

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Speaker 1: Going to try and pronounce his name, I apologize.

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Speaker 3: They are the Israelis and the US were saying that

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Speaker 3: he was the person they're negotiating with. Immediately after those

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Speaker 3: reports break, here's what he puts out. Our people demand

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Speaker 3: the complete humiliating punishment of the aggressors. All officials stand

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Speaker 3: firmly behind their leader and people.

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Speaker 1: Until this goal is achieved.

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Speaker 3: No negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is

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Speaker 3: intended to manipulate financial oil markets to escape the quagmire

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Speaker 3: in which America and.

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Speaker 1: Israel are trapped.

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Speaker 3: So it actually does appear as if they have you know, look,

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Speaker 3: maybe he took a phone.

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Speaker 1: Call or not.

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Speaker 3: We have no idea, right but what we do know

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Speaker 3: is that he's at the very least pressured internally for

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Speaker 3: him to actually come out and deny this, and you

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Speaker 3: know why, we know some of this Trump let it

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Speaker 3: kind of slip. Trump was asked on the tarmac yesterday,

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Speaker 3: who are you talking to? He says, A top person,

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Speaker 3: and I can't tell you who it is. I don't

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Speaker 3: want them to be killed. Let's put a six and

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Speaker 3: let's take a listen.

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Speaker 6: Speaking.

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Speaker 7: A top person. Don't forget, we've wiped out the leadership

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Speaker 7: phase one, Phase two, and largely phase three, but we're

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Speaker 7: dealing with the man who I believe is the most

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Speaker 7: respected and the leader.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's a little tough.

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Speaker 7: They've wiped out. We've wiped out everybody.

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Speaker 6: No, not the supreme leader.

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Speaker 7: Nobody wants to be that. Nobody wants that job right now.

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Speaker 7: You know, nobody's exactly looking forward to being the head

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Speaker 7: of that particular country. But perhaps you won't be able

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Speaker 7: to solve that problem.

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Speaker 3: So he says he can't tell you who it is

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Speaker 3: because he doesn't want them to be killed. Now, they

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Speaker 3: might be killed by.

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Speaker 1: The r they also can be killed by the Israelis.

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Speaker 3: Right, so clear there's a lot of people who might

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Speaker 3: be killing them. The second thing is that he's obviously

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Speaker 3: flailing on the straight of Hormuz. So, for example, somebody

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Speaker 3: asked him, he said, who's going to be in control

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Speaker 3: of the straits of our moose? Someone says it'll be

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Speaker 3: He says, it'll be jointly controlled by who. He said,

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Speaker 3: maybe me and the next Iotola. Let's take a listen

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Speaker 3: to that.

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Speaker 7: That would be opened very soon. If this works, to

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Speaker 7: control the be jointly controlled.

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Speaker 6: Maybe me, maybe me, me and.

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Speaker 7: The Iyahtola, whoever the Ietolla is, whoever the next Dietella.

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Speaker 7: Look and there will also be a form of a

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Speaker 7: very serious form of her regime. James, look at Venezuela.

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Speaker 1: How well that's working out.

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Speaker 7: We are doing so well in Venezuela with oil and

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Speaker 7: with the relationship between the president elect and us.

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Speaker 6: And maybe we find somebody like that.

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Speaker 1: And still has Venezuela fantasies.

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Speaker 3: After the war continues to spiral, says MEMI, the next Diatola,

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Speaker 3: So what is that? I don't acknowledge the current Iotola.

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Speaker 3: So I might have to kill the current Iotola. These

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Speaker 3: things can only be accomplished through massive ground force, invage

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Speaker 3: nuclear weapons. I mean, I hate to say all these things,

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Speaker 3: but there's just no other option like if you have

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Speaker 3: the the only off ramp is basically surrender, which I mean,

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Speaker 3: as you said, his psyche, not just his psyche.

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Speaker 1: Think about it like something I've been thinking about a lot.

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Speaker 3: Is what Joe Kent told me is one of the

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Speaker 3: reasons he resigned to trying to put pressure is he said,

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Speaker 3: I've been inside and I know how the scentcom machine

404
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Speaker 3: gets rolling. And what he means by that is that

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Speaker 3: there are not guys the Joint Staff planning forces. They

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Speaker 3: don't view themselves as political, but they have lived for

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Speaker 3: this in a lot of ways. So when the President

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Speaker 3: is like, I need all options on the table, they're like, oh,

409
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Speaker 3: they've been working on this for forty years. Then we

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Speaker 3: start pulling stuff off the shelf eighty second Airborne Marine

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Speaker 3: Expeditionary Force, and once that stuff starts to get into

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Speaker 3: the system the machinery, think about how hard it is

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Speaker 3: to roll it back because now they're like, well, we've

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Speaker 3: got to finish job.

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Speaker 1: It's a military objective. Nobody ever sits back.

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Speaker 3: This is the job of the president and his advisors

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Speaker 3: to be like, is any of this a good idea?

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Speaker 1: Should we be doing this at all?

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Speaker 3: And that machine as we see the carriers still on

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Speaker 3: their way, the marine expeditionary forces converging eighty second airborne

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Speaker 3: planes that are all coming over. Once that stuff starts,

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Speaker 3: it's very hard not to use it because now it's

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Speaker 3: in theater. Might as well be an option you takes,

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Speaker 3: like I talked about Kennedy yesterday, a supreme act of

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Speaker 3: courage and genuine intelligence to say, no, we're not doing

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Speaker 3: any of this. This is madness. We don't see rep

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Speaker 3: right now in the situation room. So if you take

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Speaker 3: that rhetoric, you take this stuff that's all on its way,

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Speaker 3: what other conclusion can you draw? Same with Iranians, they're two,

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Speaker 3: they're so confident right now, it's scary. I mean, and

431
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Speaker 3: I think, you know, don't take my words for it.

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Speaker 3: Take treatis like he is genuinely worried. They're going to

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Speaker 3: overplay their hands and it will lead to their total

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Speaker 3: and complete annihilation, to their detriment and to ours.

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Speaker 1: It'll be bad for everybody who's involved.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he just in all his comments and in

437
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Speaker 2: his decision making, he really has this like childlike understanding

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Speaker 2: of the world.

439
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Speaker 4: You know, they leaked to Politico.

440
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,159
Speaker 2: I guess even Barack reviewed wasn't buying this bullshit that

441
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 2: the gollibaf the guy who you know, we put up

442
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 2: his his tweet earlier, and that Trump was sort of

443
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 2: alluding like, oh, we've got a top guy that we're

444
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 2: talking to, and of course they're completely denying it. Anyway,

445
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: somebody leaked to Politico like, oh, he's a hot option

446
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: right now. It's like, this is not Venezuela. Number one.

447
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,360
Speaker 2: Number two, you're just completely full of shit. Number three.

448
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 2: You think you're just gonna like swap out some characters

449
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: in the old entire country of Iran with some like

450
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 2: ninety three million people, it's going to be yours.

451
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 4: I mean, it's so insane.

452
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: And this has been apparently the thinking from the beginning

453
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 2: of Trump of like, oh, if we just murder the Ayatola,

454
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 2: then it'll all be ours and we can play him

455
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 2: like puppets and do whatever we want. The military knew

456
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 2: that was not going to be the case, but he

457
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: didn't want to listen to them because he had his

458
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 2: own idea about like, well, it worked in Venezuela, and

459
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 2: Bbe tells me it'll work here, so we're just gonna

460
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 2: gonna go for it. I mean, it truly is such

461
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 2: a like kindergarten level unders of the world. And that

462
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 2: comes out too when he's like, oh, maybe me and

463
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: the ayah toola are going to control the straight of

464
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 2: hooe moves together. The Iranians put out a meme did

465
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: you see this? In response Sagur that was like, you know,

466
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 2: it was like a car where you have the normal

467
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 2: steering wheel and then you have the kids steering wheel

468
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 2: there that obviously doesn't do anything, where it's like, oh,

469
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: he's pretending to drive the car, etc. I mean, just

470
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 2: complete mockery of this man because the whole thing is

471
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: so stupid and so insane. But the bottom line is today,

472
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: you know, Trump is actually not really in a position

473
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 2: to say when this war ends or how it ends.

474
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: That is on Iran and it's on Israel.

475
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 2: He has seeded so much control to the Israelis that

476
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 2: you know, if even if he wants to end the

477
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: war today, and I think it's possible he does want

478
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 2: to end the war today, the Iranians get to say,

479
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 2: and the Israelis because of our weakness and our desired,

480
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: our decision to seed so much of our foreign policy

481
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 2: to them, they get to say as well, and that's

482
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: why this thing is such an incredible intractable mess heading

483
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 2: towards quad.

484
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 3: And why we shouldn't have gotten into it in the

485
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,719
Speaker 3: first place. But five up there on the screen, this

486
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 3: was from the Prime Minister of Israel, he says. Earlier today,

487
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 3: I spoke with President Trump. Believes there's an opportunity to

488
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 3: leverage the tremendous achievements to achieve to realize the goals

489
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 3: of the war through an agreement that will safeguard our

490
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 3: vital interest But he continues, just a few days ago,

491
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 3: we eliminated two more nuclear scientists. We are still active.

492
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 3: We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstances. At

493
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 3: the same time, we are going to continue to strike

494
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 3: in both Iran and Lebanon. We are smashing the missile program,

495
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 3: the nuclear program. We continue to deal severe blows with Hezbola,

496
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 3: and as we'll show you all later, the strikes continue

497
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: unabashed and completely. So as where things stand right now,

498
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 3: the negotiations don't appear to be going anywhere, and if

499
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 3: they do meet, the two sides are very very far apart.

500
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 3: I find it incredibly hard to believe that the Vice

501
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 3: President would be in Islamabad sometime this week, also on

502
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: the Steeve Wickcough Front, Well, what did the Iranians say?

503
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 1: Why would we trust you? With you twice we got

504
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: bombed both. I do not trust you period.

505
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: And as Jeremy and Ryan remember when Wikoff and all

506
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: of them were trying to convey the message that their

507
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 3: messages were being sent. Yeah, just because they're being sent

508
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: doesn't mean that they're being replied to. They've never released

509
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,360
Speaker 3: any evidence that the Iranians actually responded to anything. If anything,

510
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: this story is confirmation that the Iranians will not talk

511
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 3: to the US because the Turks and the Egyptians and

512
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 3: everybody else is starting to get involved. And I want

513
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 3: to put this up here at the top. We're on

514
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: the brink of actual regional conflict. So, for example, the

515
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 3: Saudis are leaking now to the Wall Street Journal. They said,

516
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 3: one more strike on the critical infrastructure or water we're

517
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: getting in the war, We're going to start striking. The

518
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 3: golf Arabs have all been leaking to all of these

519
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 3: different outlets saying that they now agree with the idea

520
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 3: of regime change because their fundamental security is threatened, which

521
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 3: means everybody's incentives is for longer, more protracted war.

522
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: Do you want to go to war?

523
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: Do you want to do you want to send Americans

524
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 3: to die for the Dubai real estate market, okay? Or

525
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 3: for OnlyFans girls to be able to live comfortable lives

526
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 3: and high rises in Dubai, or fitness influencers or too

527
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 3: much losers to make it in the United States to

528
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 3: make it over there. I'm good, actually all right, and

529
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: that's what they want for us or the dron compound.

530
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: No, okay, we're good.

531
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 3: But that's that's where the incentive structure is for every

532
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 3: single person, including the Iranians, which is why, honestly, I

533
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 3: just think it's this is genuine like nightmare.

534
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, you ain at this point, they

535
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 2: they almost have to get some.

536
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 4: They're screwed.

537
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 2: I'm already they're they're brand Dubai's brand, Abu Dabi's brand

538
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: as like you know, the playgrounds for the rich and

539
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: you know, almost like a little car vound from the

540
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 2: rest of the tunnels.

541
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 4: Of the region that's dead. It's over.

542
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,239
Speaker 2: We've all seen the videos of like your airport on

543
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: fire and you know, bombs land a or drones hitting

544
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: luxury high rise buildings. Who who of our global elite

545
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 2: is going to choose Dubai as their location now? And

546
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 2: that's their whole thing, Like that is really where they've

547
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,160
Speaker 2: staked their claim. So unless they can you know, completely

548
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: overturn the government in Iran and have some I don't

549
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 2: know where the whole year or some other puppet government

550
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 2: that they feel totally comfortable with, it's not coming back.

551
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 2: So and again this is you know, part of Israel's

552
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 2: goal in all of this is they you know, they

553
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 2: knew this idea it'll be a four day war and

554
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 2: it'll be or they knew that was nonsense that they

555
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: were selling to Trump, right, and he was dumb enough

556
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 2: to buy it, and you know, foolish and arrogant and

557
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 2: vain enough to surround himself with people who wouldn't tell

558
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: him the hard truth and shut on anyone who might

559
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: have told him the hard truth, as evidence by you know,

560
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 2: Joe Kent being completely shut out of any of the

561
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 2: conversations and the debates leading up to this war.

562
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 4: So you know, so now.

563
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 2: You've got this intractable conflict that just continues to grow,

564
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 2: and Israel's happy to have all of these countries in

565
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: that is exactly what they want. That's why it, you know,

566
00:25:58,080 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 2: appears that they may have been involved in some ful

567
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: slime flag attacks to make those goalfareb states feel even

568
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 2: more under thread. But I mean, make no doubt about it,

569
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: Iran is striking within those countries as well, because they're like, look,

570
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: you're complicit, You're hosting these bases. Attacks are being launched

571
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,479
Speaker 2: from your soil towards US. So sorry, fair game. That's

572
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 2: you know, that's where we are. It really is every

573
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: week that goes by inching war and war towards total

574
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 2: and complete war. And this is also the Pandora's box

575
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 2: that's been opened by Gaza and the you know, the

576
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 2: barbarism that just is accepted.

577
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 1: Now, yeah, that's so bad. Let's get to insider trading.

578
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: Turning now to insider trading a very important story that

579
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 3: we absolutely cannot just let slide. So we recall yesterday

580
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: we talked a lot about Trump market manipulation. It turns

581
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 3: out that market manipulation definitely worked out for several people,

582
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: but we don't know any of their names.

583
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: Let's start with the first one. Let's put it up

584
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: here on the screen.

585
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 3: Here we have from the Financial Times traders placed five

586
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 3: hundred and eighty million in oil bets ahead of Donald

587
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 3: from social media post on Iran talks.

588
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: Is that normal? No, Apparently it's not.

589
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: Fifteen minutes before the Trump post touting productive talks, sixty

590
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 3: two hundred and Brent and West Texas intermediate futures contracts

591
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 3: change hands between six forty nine am and six fifty

592
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 3: am New York time on Monday, a quarter of an

593
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: hour ahead of the president's posts. Five hundred and eighty

594
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: million dollars was the notional volume trading volumes left at

595
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 3: the exact same time twenty seven seconds before six to

596
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: fifty am. Futures tracking the S and P five hundred

597
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 3: jumped in price moments after the oil trade volumes rising

598
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 3: significantly during that timeframe. Trump's announcement at seven oh four

599
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 3: triggered a sharp sell off across the global energy markets

600
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: and jumps in the S and pipe P five hundred

601
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 3: stock index and European equities as investors dialed back bets

602
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 3: on a prolonged conflict. The well trimed trades echo the

603
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 3: flurry of large, highly profitable bets made on poly market

604
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 3: for the timing of the US attacks in recent months.

605
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 3: On Iran and Venezuela. The White House has denied that

606
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 3: they had anything to do with this. The only focus

607
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: of President Trump and Trump administration is doing what's best

608
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: for the American people.

609
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: Hmm.

610
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,719
Speaker 3: Well, it just turns out though that again it's not

611
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 3: just the financial time talking about up to the next

612
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 3: one who CNBC confirming and actually were the first people

613
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 3: to report this, that the volume in the stock and

614
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: oil future surge right before the minutes of Trump's market

615
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 3: turning posts exactly at that six fifty five am s

616
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,959
Speaker 3: and P five hundred E mini futures which recorded a

617
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: sharp and isolated.

618
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: Jump in volume.

619
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 3: So we don't know the exact the exact profit that

620
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 3: these people have made, some say could be well over

621
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 3: north of a billion dollars for what the eventual bet

622
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 3: turned out. Of course, the SEC has not responded for

623
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 3: comment about whether we'll be initiating an investigation the CFTC.

624
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: So these are the macro bets, but there were hundreds

625
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 3: of other bets made in polymarket like and other prediction

626
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: markets which were able to trace, would show some level

627
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 3: of insider knowledge traders at the individual level booking a

628
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 3: million dollars or so in these people booking billions potentially,

629
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 3: I mean, and who knows, you know, this is only

630
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 3: what we know here in our equities markets around the world.

631
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 3: We have no idea what those countries might be looking into.

632
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,479
Speaker 4: And it's like the Blazer obvious.

633
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 3: These are the people who we just you know, did

634
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 3: it obviously? Who knows what long term contracts and other

635
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 3: people that have out there, And you know, we can't

636
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 3: let this go because I think that this demonstrates a

637
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 3: couple of things. This is an undemocratic war. The Congress

638
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: did not vote for it, the people do not support it.

639
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 3: It continues to be advanced on behalf of Israel and

640
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 3: then some people here in the United States government, and

641
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 3: at the very same time that they are explicitly timing

642
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 3: many of their war Can you imagine trying to schedule

643
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 3: D Day around when the S and P five hundred open?

644
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: What do we do?

645
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 5: You know?

646
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 3: And that's the point is that this is not a

647
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: war that we're all bought into. It's a war which

648
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: is being waged almost honestly, directly against the interests of Americans.

649
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 3: On my way here to work, every billboard, what am

650
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 3: I looking at? Three ninety nine a gallon three ninety

651
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: nine a gown, three ninety four gallons, four to oh

652
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 3: one a gallon. I mean, this stuff, it's brutal for

653
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: everybody who is living this at the diesel level, what

654
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 3: is it now, five point fifty something like that. You

655
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 3: got people all over the country who's you know, are

656
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 3: getting broken in a single month. We were just looking

657
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:28,959
Speaker 3: this morning four oh one k withdraws or at an

658
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 3: all time high.

659
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 1: It's just mortgage rates at seven mortgage rates.

660
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 3: I mean it's like every every level across the book,

661
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 3: your pocketbook things are being hurt by this war on

662
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: top of our strategic position, everything else and not you know,

663
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 3: that doesn't even bring in the lives of American services

664
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:46,959
Speaker 3: thirteen already.

665
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've been killed. It's a nightmare. And these people

666
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: are getting.

667
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: Filthy and then dad insults of injury. You've got insiders

668
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 2: who are making bank and this is just routine at

669
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 2: this point. How many times has Trump come out with

670
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 2: some market moving truth social that minutes before it comes out,

671
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 2: someone's trading the you know, making big and unusual bets

672
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 2: either on polymarket or on the stock market that just

673
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: happened to pan out, happen to come just before he

674
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: makes the announcement. I mean, you'd be a fool not

675
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 2: to see it. At this point, it's utterly discussed. I mean,

676
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 2: the stock market is so beyond fake. It's just like

677
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 2: a playground for insiders to siphon off even more wealth

678
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: for themselves at the expense of literally everyone else. I mean,

679
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 2: to your points are, I'm just looking at the national

680
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 2: average now today, the national average for a tank of

681
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: gas regular unleaded three ninety eight, and for diesel we're

682
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: looking at five thirty five. And you know, as much

683
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: as you directly feel that regular unleaded at the gas pump,

684
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 2: that diesel is the part that really triggers goes throughund

685
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: the entire economy, and very quickly, because obviously that's what

686
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 2: all the that's what all the truckers are having to pay,

687
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: and that's going to get passed on. They're going to

688
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 2: get squeezed, and then you're gonna get squeezed. So it's disgusting.

689
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 2: And let me add this. The us SEC's X enforcement

690
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: chief clashed with bosses over Trump cases before leaving, according

691
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 2: to sources.

692
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 4: This is from Reuters.

693
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 2: So I saw someone flag on Twitter that this enforcement

694
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 2: chief over at the SEC had just resigned earlier this month,

695
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: right before. This level of insider trading is clearly happening

696
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 2: in conjunction with the war, and so Reuters was able

697
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: to get the scoop about what was actually going on here,

698
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: and lo and behold, it was over a lack of enforcement,

699
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: especially with cases that have ties to Trump and the

700
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: Trump family. So Reuters reports the us SEC's top enforcement official,

701
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: who left abruptly last week, had clashed with agency leaders

702
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 2: over the direction of its enforcement program, including the handling

703
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: of cases with ties to Trump and his family. According

704
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: to three people familiar, SEC Enforcement Division Director Margaret Ryan

705
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 2: resigned last Monday after just over six months on the job.

706
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,719
Speaker 2: Writers was first to report her resignation. Email seen by

707
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 2: Roters to not say why she was leaving, and she

708
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: declined to comment. Two of the people said Ryan wanted

709
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 2: to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for and other misconduct,

710
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: including in cases that touch the president's circle, but face

711
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 2: resistance from SEC Chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican

712
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:12,479
Speaker 2: political appointees. Of course, they deny it. One case they

713
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 2: say that spark tension, in particular involved cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin's Sun,

714
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 2: a major backer of Trump's family's World Liberty financial venture.

715
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: That's their crypto grift. Another involved Tesla boss Elon Musk,

716
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 2: big donor of course the Trump's campaign, who briefly served

717
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 2: as a president's special advisor.

718
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 4: So there you go.

719
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 2: Top enforcement official wanted to actually attempt to do some

720
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: portion of her job. The head of the SEC was like, no,

721
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 2: we're not doing that, at least certainly not where the

722
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 2: Trump family or Trump donors are concerned. And she said, Okay,

723
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: I'm on a here. I mean, this is the state

724
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 2: of the country right now. This is the state or

725
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 2: the lack of enforcement where you know, white collar crime,

726
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 2: especially if you are a Trump donor or a Trump

727
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: family member or Trump associate, is just legal. It's just

728
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: legal now. And then they want to tell you all

729
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: of oh my god, the smallian fraud blah blah blah.

730
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: The biggest fraudsters are in the White House. There's zero

731
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: doubt about it. Especially on a dollar for dollar base.

732
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 3: It would be a lot easier to talk about smelling

733
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 3: fraud if you weren't partning fraudsters at the very sent and.

734
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,439
Speaker 2: Or protecting them and personally committing frauds at the same time.

735
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: Who knows. Yeah, exactly, that's the problem.

736
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 3: Also, Yeah, I just want to say that you guys know,

737
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 3: SEC records can go have a look back period. Right

738
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 3: one day, somebody's actually going to look in this, and

739
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 3: I hope somebody goes to jail.

740
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 6: I really do.

741
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: Let's go for B three. Put this up here on

742
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: the screen.

743
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 3: The current market reaction for what we are, what we

744
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 3: are seeing as of right now, what it currently looks

745
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,479
Speaker 3: like is that some of the S and P again,

746
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 3: remember we talked about this stuff early in the morning,

747
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,439
Speaker 3: S and P five hundred futures are pulling back after

748
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 3: Monday's rally as oil prices are rebounding. The Iran conflict continues.

749
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 3: If I look again, just right now, the Brent futures

750
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 3: hovering right around one hundred dollars per barrel, and I

751
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 3: think West Texas is roughly a round ninety, so it's

752
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 3: going to be a little bit more manageable, and you

753
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 3: will likely see a pullback in gas price in midway

754
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 3: week and potentially on Sunday. But of course, if there

755
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 3: is signed actual well apparently the way that spy I'm

756
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,919
Speaker 3: not talking about like forever, like for a couple of days,

757
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 3: so that's apparently the way that works. Again, not fully

758
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 3: an oil genius or anything myself, but I've been trying

759
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 3: to do some reading. Let's put be four up there

760
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 3: on the screen. It's from Chevron, and these are the stuff.

761
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 3: This is the stuff where people should really freak out,

762
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 3: because when the Chevron CEO says around more impact not

763
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 3: fully priced in, and that traders have scant information, you

764
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 3: should think, hey, doesn't he have more information because he

765
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: runs one of the world's largest energy companies. The CEO cautioned,

766
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 3: it will take time to restart production that has been

767
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 3: dialed back and to repair damage facilities. Let me just

768
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 3: read you directly what he said. There are very real

769
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 3: physical manifestations of the closure of the straits of her

770
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,439
Speaker 3: moves that are working their way around the world through

771
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 3: the system that I do not think are fully priced

772
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 3: into the future's curve on oil. What he talks about,

773
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 3: specifically is that the market is trading on scant information

774
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 3: and perception. The physical supply of oil is tighter than

775
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 3: the futures contracts suggests. We've got a lot of oil

776
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 3: and gas now that is not flowing into the market.

777
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,760
Speaker 3: There really is a difference in terms of physical supply

778
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 3: versus prior incidents. So he keeps saying, and every oil

779
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 3: analyst that we listen to is like, the market futures

780
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 3: are totally pricing in some sort of taco, some sort

781
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 3: of event that if you look at the physical market

782
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 3: doesn't add up. We talked to yes, I think a

783
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 3: few maybe last week, remember about California barrels trading for

784
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 3: like one hundred and forty dollars. We talked about how

785
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 3: physical crude oil in Dubai or in Uae that was

786
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 3: coming out was trading at like one sixty and that's

787
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 3: way out of step with where the current futures prices are.

788
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,479
Speaker 3: And the reason for that is that's the physical oil

789
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 3: that's actually there right now as opposed to what the

790
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 3: future bet is on some sort of resumption of flow.

791
00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 3: But all of the people who are actually in the

792
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,439
Speaker 3: know don't seem to think that that's going to happen. Yeah,

793
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 3: So for example, let's put United Airlines up here on

794
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 3: the screen. This is Scott Kirby, the CEO of United.

795
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 3: He put out a memo this was last week. We

796
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: planned for oil to hit one hundred and seventy five

797
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 3: dollars a barrel and staying above one hundred next year

798
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 3: as the industry faces the worst shock since COVID.

799
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: Obviously that matters for jet fuel.

800
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 3: And he by the way, when he says one hundred

801
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 3: and seventy five barrel, he's not talking about jet fuel.

802
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 3: He's talking about actual crude oil, which means jet fuel

803
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 3: would be trading much higher than that. I mean, one

804
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: seventy five barrel, that's like six dollars a gallon and

805
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 3: staying at one hundred over the next year. Even one

806
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 3: hundred is a lot, that's right now, So for the

807
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 3: next year, we're all signing up for four dollars a gallon.

808
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 1: That's I mean, come on, that's that's really tough.

809
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 3: What I was looking at recently, just this morning, is

810
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 3: that for every ten dollars increase in the price of

811
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: oil for a barrel, it's roughly point three too point

812
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 3: four in terms of its increase on inflation. So I

813
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: think we've already had orders of magnitude more intent so

814
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 3: we could be hit five percent inflation. Yeah, so literally

815
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 3: nineteen seventies energy shock level stuff.

816
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, in terms of people are saying in

817
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 2: terms of the like barrel production loss already it's bigger

818
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 2: than the seventies energy shocks. But you know, Rory Johnston,

819
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 2: the analyst we've had on before, he made a good point.

820
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,879
Speaker 2: He's like, listen, so much of the world now can

821
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 2: increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it, but

822
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 2: not oil, at least not for long. Horrmo's flow still

823
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 2: has not resumed. Every day we're shedding more oil from

824
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 2: the system. That'll catch up. Can't jawbone ten to fifteen

825
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 2: million barrels per day stock draws. So he's making the point.

826
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 2: You're like, yeah, a lot of our economy is fake

827
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 2: and based on vibes, like Tesla's valuation as one example.

828
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 2: But oil is an actual, like thing that exists. It

829
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 2: is a commodity. It is a physical good that exists,

830
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 2: and you can't just like post your way through it,

831
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 2: even though that's exactly what Trump is trying to do

832
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 2: at this point and having some success. I mean, I

833
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 2: think the you know, Chevron Ceo was like, you know,

834
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 2: they're really not part in just how much disruption. I

835
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 2: think he is correct. I think Rory is correct and

836
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 2: saying essentially the same thing. This is going to hit

837
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 2: at some point and is going to get worse. You

838
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: can't just true social your way out of the problem

839
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 2: that you.

840
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 3: Have created, and think about all the downstream effects. So

841
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 3: oil is high, which means demand destruction, pullback, high inflation,

842
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 3: high interest rates, stagflation once again, high unemployment rate, high

843
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 3: mortgage rates.

844
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 1: That could go on for a long time.

845
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 3: Pullback in AI, ten percent correction in the stock market,

846
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 3: fifteen percent correction for the tech industry, mass layoffs across

847
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 3: the US economy. I'm just giving you the whole nineteen

848
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 3: seventies playbook. And remember the only way they solved it

849
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 3: was nineteen percent interest rates, which I mean that scarred

850
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 3: a generation forever in terms of how they think about finances,

851
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 3: and I mean banks, like literally the Federal Reserve. It

852
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 3: changed the entire outlook for an entire people. A student

853
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 3: debt would climb, debt servicing, education, I mean the downstream,

854
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 3: fertilized I don't even talked about fertilizer, helium, semiconductors, the

855
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: global supply chain, potential famine, food crisis in the Third World,

856
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 3: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh already having gas shortages because they

857
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 3: all have cooking gas. I mean you know this, and

858
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 3: so like over here. Our problems are just going to

859
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 3: be economic in the rest of the world, like we're

860
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 3: talking about life and death being able and if this extends.

861
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,359
Speaker 3: Remember during COVID with Biden, we would often talk about

862
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 3: like there's a significant portion of the country I think

863
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 3: in the northeast or like a way up north where

864
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 3: they still use like heating oil or gas, and that

865
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 3: spike like destroyed their heating bills and pocketbooks for a

866
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 3: long time.

867
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: So, I mean, you know, I don't want to scare people.

868
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm pointing out, like why it's so imperative

869
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 3: to pull the war back as soon as possible, But

870
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 3: if these people are too believed, it doesn't even look

871
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 3: like that's even possible.

872
00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: And then we're going to be in some four dollars a.

873
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 3: Game, Like it seems like the base case is four

874
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 3: bucks a gallon now for over a year, which is

875
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 3: I mean, really just devastating.

876
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: Well, luckily, the economy was really great before this, so people,

877
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:10,879
Speaker 2: I'm sure have a lot of cushion. They're feeling very

878
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 2: confident they'll be able to weather the.

879
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 1: Store, right, very true. All right, let's move on joining

880
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 1: us now.

881
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 3: Is Brandon Wiker, great friend of the show and an

882
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 3: excellent military Analyst's good to see you.

883
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 6: Sir, thanks for having me as always.

884
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 3: All right, Brandon, let's jump right into it. All of

885
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 3: us have been on ground troop deployment.

886
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 1: Watch. Let's go and put this one up here on

887
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 1: the screen.

888
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 3: New York Times saying that the Pentagon is now weighing

889
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 3: the deployment of airborne troops for the Iran war. They

890
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 3: focused specifically on the eighty second Airborne, whose training exercise

891
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 3: had previously been canceled. Maybe you could break down for

892
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 3: us some of the military speak here. It's currently'd be

893
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 3: about a brigade of three thousand soldiers capable of deploying

894
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 3: anywhere in the world for eighteen hours. What would that

895
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 3: type of operation look like? What should we look for?

896
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:58,919
Speaker 3: Are their movements that are already on the way. What's

897
00:41:58,920 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 3: going on?

898
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 6: Well, clearly this is if you if you contextualize this

899
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 6: with the marine, the Marine expeditionary units. I believe two

900
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 6: are being deployed or have been deployed to the region.

901
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 6: This to me looks like the administration's thinking is, well,

902
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 6: we're gonna have a small, light and fast force that

903
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:24,240
Speaker 6: will break into one of the targets along the coastline UH,

904
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 6: and they will basically overrun whatever defenses are there, capture

905
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 6: the land UH, and then be able to sort of

906
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 6: establish a foothold there and then they can flow in

907
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 6: heavier forces. The forces I don't think this would be

908
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 6: a I might be wrong about this, but I don't

909
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 6: believe this is a prelude to invasion of the heart

910
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 6: of Iran. I think this is an attempt to establish

911
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 6: what's known as sea control. You know, basically, they're gonna

912
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 6: they're gonna take one of these islands along the coast UH,

913
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 6: and then they think they'll be able to capture it

914
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 6: and then build up missile presence there and they'll be

915
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 6: able to basically interdict any kind of Iranian attempts to

916
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 6: intervene with the natural flow of shipping through the Strait

917
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,839
Speaker 6: of hor Moves or into the Strait of Hormus. And

918
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 6: I just got to tell Y Saga, this whole thing

919
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:17,240
Speaker 6: is KOOKI talk. This is crazy town level stuff, because

920
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 6: eighty second Airborne is wonderful, and I've I've talked to

921
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 6: those guys before, but this is not gonna work the

922
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 6: way they think it is, nor will it work for

923
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 6: the marines twenty five hundred or five thousand, whatever number

924
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 6: they're throwing around. Now, it's sort of been changing off

925
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 6: and on. This is not gonna work. You need to,

926
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 6: you know, the Klauswitzian model. You need to mass a

927
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 6: lot of force to just to take one of those islands.

928
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 6: And oh, by the way, our marines are eighty second

929
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 6: airborne guys. As the Russians learned in the first few

930
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 6: days of their war in Ukraine, They're not going to

931
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 6: be facing it's not gonna be man on man. It's

932
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 6: not even gonna be tank on man. It's gonna be

933
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 6: man arrives on island, finds it kind of deserted. It's quiet. Oh,

934
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 6: it's kind of nice. But oh, guess what, there's eighty

935
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 6: eight thousand. Shah had drones coming your way in waves,

936
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 6: and then the missiles and then the hypersonics. This is

937
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 6: not gonna end well, this is gonna be Gallipoli from

938
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 6: World War One, and it will end in US retreating

939
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 6: in you know, humiliation. And I think that's when we

940
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 6: start talking about nuclear weapons.

941
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: Do you think there's a possibility What you said is

942
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 2: horrifying and terrifying, and I want to acknowledge that. Do

943
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 2: you think it's a possibility. There's a possibility. We're being

944
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 2: sort of syoped on this carg Island idea. I'm just

945
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 2: hearing too many leaks about it, too much in the

946
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,240
Speaker 2: press about it. It seems like we're signaling too hard

947
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 2: that that's what we're intending to do there.

948
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, And actually there was a YouTube account, I think

949
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 6: it was called History Legends, which is this Ukrainian military guy,

950
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:42,800
Speaker 6: and he had a very interesting video a couple of

951
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 6: days ago breaking down the three possible locations. The one

952
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 6: he thinks, and this is what I was thinking, because

953
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 6: it was one of our first targets we blew up

954
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 6: in the air war. Is this naval base the Iranians have.

955
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 6: It's sort of in the Gulf of Oman or off

956
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 6: that coastline, so it's technically closer to where our navy

957
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 6: is willing to go. And let's just think about this.

958
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 6: Pollyanna Pete Hegseth keeps telling us we're winning this thing

959
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 6: so bigly it hurts. Well, we can't even get the

960
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 6: navy within, you know, a thousand kilometers of the Strait

961
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 6: of Hormuz. But somehow we're gonna land marines inside. I

962
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 6: don't think so. And so there is a possibility or

963
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 6: probability that the real target is something like I think

964
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 6: it's the Conorade Naval Base, which is along that coastline

965
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 6: of Oman. But and that's near Baluchistan. And the argument

966
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 6: is the CIA has been implanted into Baluchistan, which is

967
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 6: a breakaway area of Iran, and where we have friendlies

968
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 6: on the ground, and the friendlies will come in from

969
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 6: the back door of the naval base in Iran, and

970
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,920
Speaker 6: then we'll come in through the front door. It'll be happy,

971
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 6: you know, happy times are here again. I don't think again,

972
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 6: this is how it's gonna work out. And even if

973
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 6: we did take that territory, by the way, it's not

974
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 6: really near where we need to be. I mean, the

975
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 6: Straight of Hormose is the problem, not the Gulf of Oman,

976
00:45:57,520 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 6: not yet. So you know, this is all for show.

977
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 6: So this is again, this is irresponsible and crazy talk

978
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 6: from the administration, which we've we've become accustomed to now

979
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 6: on this issue.

980
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 1: Let's put C two up there on the screen.

981
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 3: These Raelies compiling some of the plans that we see

982
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 3: right now. Twenty five hundred marines, two thousand sailors, three

983
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,439
Speaker 3: amphibious ships, three thousand paratroopers. I want to throw another

984
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 3: one at you, which we've talked a little bit about before.

985
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 3: Let's say Trump needs a spectacular off ramp. What about

986
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 3: the nuclear mission? The Israelis just bomb the nuclear facility.

987
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 3: Airborne troops can drop right in. Some theory that I

988
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 3: have seen now currently is you send airborne in, then

989
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 3: you send in the one wave of marines, and you

990
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 3: have another wave of marines that could come in. Everybody's

991
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 3: recycling in and out of the country. Obviously, though that

992
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 3: would be deep inside. How would something like that play out?

993
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 3: Would it give the president the off ramp that he wants.

994
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,479
Speaker 6: I don't think any of this is an off ramp.

995
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 6: I don't know. This is literally escalation. Now, maybe in

996
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 6: Trump's mind, you know, this is the we do.

997
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 4: She escalate, right brand That's right, Scott Bessen told me.

998
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:01,319
Speaker 6: That's what Scott vest Yes, the military genius known as

999
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 6: Scott Bess. You know, you know, maybe in Trump's mind

1000
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 6: that's how it works. But you know, remember the Russians

1001
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 6: have had a escalate to de escalate doctrine for fifteen

1002
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 6: ten years now, and it hasn't worked for them. I mean,

1003
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 6: they're still in Ukraine, so you know, they're kind of

1004
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 6: winning in Ukraine. But the point is it hasn't worked

1005
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 6: anywhere it's tried. When you escalate and you're up against arrival,

1006
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 6: like the Persians or the Iranians, they escalate along with you.

1007
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 6: In fact, they've demonstrated I think I said this before,

1008
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 6: they demonstrated a remarkable capacity. So far we go up

1009
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 6: one escalation run there they are waiting for us. They

1010
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 6: just go right with us. These are this is a

1011
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 6: very wily group of adversaries we're up against, and we've

1012
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 6: completely misread and underestimated them. So perhaps that's what the

1013
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 6: president is envisioning. It's not going to go that way.

1014
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 6: And by the way, how is all those free flowing

1015
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 6: forces going to put up with a contested airspace where

1016
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 6: air defense systems are still active. They've already hit at

1017
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,800
Speaker 6: F thirty five, they've already targeted you know these casey

1018
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 6: one thirty five. So how are we going to do

1019
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 6: this without losing a bunch of guys needlessly? And of

1020
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 6: course the political ramifications. You know, Trump is obsessed with

1021
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 6: having the markets look good, so he has good, good

1022
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 6: polling or whatever. I don't know how losing a bunch

1023
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 6: of troops in the heart of Iran to try to

1024
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 6: take over some nuclear facility or whatever. I mean, this

1025
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 6: just sounds really this sounds like something from a Tom

1026
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 6: Clancy novel and not something from like real war.

1027
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: But it might happen. The thing is like it. Yes,

1028
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: actually might happen like for real.

1029
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 6: Yes, that one would be very difficult though, because he's

1030
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 6: going to have to penetrate deep hold. I mean, he

1031
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 6: might try it, but that thing could really go pair

1032
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 6: shaped fast.

1033
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 2: So one of our aircraft carriers in the region had

1034
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 2: to limp back to shore after an alleged laundry fire.

1035
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 2: What impact does that have on our abilities in the region?

1036
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: You know, I believe there's just one air just one

1037
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:58,760
Speaker 2: aircraft carrier in the area.

1038
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:00,439
Speaker 4: Now you know how much does matter?

1039
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 6: Well, I believe the second aircraft has come. I guess

1040
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:07,240
Speaker 6: the third was it the George H. W. Bush left Virginia,

1041
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 6: so it's en route ultimately, Look, I've been a critic

1042
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,359
Speaker 6: of the aircraft carrier for over a decade. I think

1043
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 6: it is it is an obsolete weapon. I think that

1044
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 6: it is a sitting duck. As we're seeing these missiles

1045
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 6: are targeting. Whether they hit the Gerald R Ford or

1046
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 6: not is the question. I know that the Houthis came

1047
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 6: very close to hitting a couple of those carriers a

1048
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 6: year or two ago, and that's why we abandoned the

1049
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 6: fight with the Houthies. The Ford. They're claiming it was

1050
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 6: a laundry fire. I am not convinced. I personally have

1051
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 6: no evidence of this as a speculation, but I do

1052
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,879
Speaker 6: think that was probably probably clipped by one of those

1053
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 6: Iranian ASBMs that's an anti ship ballistic missile. And you

1054
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:53,240
Speaker 6: know they probably are are retreating back to Virginia now

1055
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 6: to get repair and rest. The problem is, we have

1056
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:59,760
Speaker 6: one shipyard in the entire United States that can handle

1057
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,919
Speaker 6: the of overhaul necessary for these carriers. It's backlogged. They're

1058
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,839
Speaker 6: saying it'll be fourteen months before the Ford is back

1059
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 6: in action. I would anticipate twenty four to twenty eight months.

1060
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 6: You have to double that almost because because the shipyards

1061
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 6: are so sclerotic here and they're already at you know,

1062
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 6: at capacity. So this is a big problem. This is

1063
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 6: a loss of capabilities. It's a tool out of our toolbox.

1064
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 6: Uh and we only have I think right now three

1065
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 6: operational out of eleven carriers. So you know, this is

1066
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 6: this is a nightmare scenario at the strategic level again,

1067
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,799
Speaker 6: because as this is happening in the Middle East, the

1068
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 6: Chinese are not just going to leave it alone. You're

1069
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 6: seeing Russia and or Ukraine again starting at it. So

1070
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:47,319
Speaker 6: our you know, our rivals are constantly figuring out how

1071
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 6: to use this to their advantage. And Uncle Sam is

1072
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 6: declining significantly unfortunately.

1073
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 3: Ran And let's talk about the combat effectiveness of the

1074
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 3: Iranian missiles now so far, so we day after day,

1075
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 3: every time I wake up, I see a new hit

1076
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 3: inside of Israel that I didn't see two weeks ago.

1077
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 3: We saw Demona, the nuclear facility area got hit. We

1078
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 3: saw us was it a rod I think that's the

1079
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:13,760
Speaker 3: name where Southern Israel mass casualty this morning, Tel Aviv

1080
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 3: rubble everywhere. It looks like the blitz in the middle

1081
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 3: of London. This seems like a daily occurrence. Now what

1082
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 3: does that tell us, Well.

1083
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 6: It tells us that I just saw before I logged down.

1084
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 6: Daily Mail has an op ed. They're saying the Iranians

1085
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 6: only have a thousand missiles left. And I'm reminded of

1086
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 6: you know, the articles coming out of Ukraine in the beginning,

1087
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:33,880
Speaker 6: when you know the Russians are two weeks away from

1088
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 6: running out of missiles, they're using laundry machine. You know,

1089
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 6: this is not this is not realistic. I think a

1090
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 6: safer assessment is that the Iranians have probably an additional

1091
00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 6: eighteen to twenty four months left of their missiles stockpiles.

1092
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 6: We're not even talking about the drones. The drones are

1093
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:53,720
Speaker 6: the real problem. The drones are actually what they're threatening

1094
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 6: to hit ships passing through the Strait of Hormus with.

1095
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 6: They're not threatening to hit them with missiles necessarily, it's

1096
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 6: the drones the heads. So we're not even addressing the

1097
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 6: more than eighty eight thousand drones that they have in

1098
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 6: their arsenal, which haven't even been close to used. So,

1099
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 6: in my opinion, these missile strikes are clearly demonstrating escalation

1100
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 6: dominance on the part of the Iranians. They clearly have

1101
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 6: a robust arsenal. Remember, up until a week ago, they're

1102
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 6: using missiles that were ten and fifteen years old. These

1103
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 6: are the missiles from ten years ago. Now they've started

1104
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 6: upgrading and they've switched music munitions to the more advanced stuff,

1105
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 6: and they're talking about the koramshar and some of these

1106
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 6: other very sophisticated, very lethal missiles. So if you're sitting

1107
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 6: around listening to the White House and the Pentagon telling you, oh,

1108
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 6: this war is coming to a close soon, I think

1109
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 6: the Iranians unfortunately, have another message for you, which is

1110
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 6: We've got plenty and we're going to keep coming up

1111
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 6: the escalation ladder with you.

1112
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so straight orform is obviously has become you know,

1113
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 2: a central question in this war, central objective in this war,

1114
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 2: even though if we just hadn't started the war, everything

1115
00:52:57,600 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 2: would have been fine there. But in any case that

1116
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 2: you know, they've.

1117
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,240
Speaker 6: Well, it's not a war, it's a non war war.

1118
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 2: Right, it's a it's an excursion or whatever the term

1119
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:07,359
Speaker 2: of art is. Now, in any case, you know, we've

1120
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,839
Speaker 2: we've abandoned and there was a Washing poster report about this.

1121
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 2: We've abandoned the idea of you know, completely destroying their

1122
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 2: ability to produce nuclear weapon. We've abandoned the idea of

1123
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 2: regime change. So now we're just trying to basically like

1124
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 2: undo sam damage that was done. Trump we played the

1125
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:23,919
Speaker 2: earl in the show, was like, maybe me and the Ayatola.

1126
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 4: Are going to control the straight of war moves together.

1127
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 2: Okay, what would it actually take though, to you know, forcibly,

1128
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 2: take control of the strait of horror moves and make

1129
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,400
Speaker 2: it safe enough that shifts feel they can navigate that

1130
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 2: without getting you know, cliped by a drone or whatever.

1131
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 6: It's going to require a force substantially larger than what

1132
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 6: we've deployed, and it's going to take a political willingness

1133
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:49,320
Speaker 6: and I'm not advocating for this at all, a political

1134
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 6: willingness to see very large numbers of casualties and oh,

1135
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 6: by the way, the loss of some of these very

1136
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:59,320
Speaker 6: expensive platforms, not just carriers, but destroyers as well. Remember

1137
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 6: there was a business inside or interview with a captain

1138
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 6: of a destroyer during the Hoothy Fight where he said

1139
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 6: that never in his career, and not since World War

1140
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 6: Two the Pacific theater had the US Navy encountered an

1141
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:15,839
Speaker 6: enemy as serious as I'm paraphrasing as the Houthis were.

1142
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 6: And of course we abandoned that fight. Remember that was

1143
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 6: the big signal gate that was part of that whole

1144
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 6: discussion with Jeffrey Goldberg. They abandoned that fight because it

1145
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 6: was too much. And now we're talking about going up

1146
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:29,480
Speaker 6: against you know, sort of the mothership of terrorism in

1147
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 6: the region, and they're like a missile city and we're

1148
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 6: going to somehow, you know, we're gonna with with two

1149
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,240
Speaker 6: carriers and a handful of destroyers that won't get anywhere

1150
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:40,919
Speaker 6: near under current conditions the Strait of Hormuz. Suddenly they're

1151
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 6: going to punch through land marines, take out all. I mean,

1152
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 6: this is this is the stuff of science fiction fantasy.

1153
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 2: So it's yeah, well I would respectfully suggest that Israel

1154
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 2: is the mothership of terrorism in the region.

1155
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 4: Well sure, yeah, yeah, Iran.

1156
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 3: This is the difficulty of this is that every day

1157
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 3: we hear d D five percent capacity has been wiped

1158
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 3: out ninety five percent, and the Israelis, i think twice now,

1159
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: have claimed that three hundred missiles have been destroyed.

1160
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 1: And it's like, well, I don't know if that's even.

1161
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:12,800
Speaker 6: The math isn't mathing as they say.

1162
00:55:12,719 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't really work.

1163
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 3: But the thing is is that with their drone production,

1164
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 3: with their oil enrichment, right now, the Iranians are in

1165
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 3: a better position, much more than they expected. Right initially

1166
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 3: at this point, though, how can the United States, and

1167
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 3: you know you're political as well. What possible outcome could

1168
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 3: we see that actually leads to this ending from Donald Trump?

1169
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:41,320
Speaker 3: I think it would take a sea change of mindset

1170
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 3: to say, okay, done, let's sign a fake deal, declare victory,

1171
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:45,919
Speaker 3: and get out.

1172
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 1: But I just don't see. Yeah, And I wonder.

1173
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 6: That's the Trump of the first first year or two

1174
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,360
Speaker 6: of the presidency in twenty sixteen. That's not the Trump

1175
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:55,799
Speaker 6: of COVID. That's not the Trump of of now we're

1176
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:57,960
Speaker 6: getting the Trump of COVID. Okay, this was he was

1177
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,879
Speaker 6: committed to lockdowns, he was committed to all that. So

1178
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 6: this is the worst patterns of Trump coming out in

1179
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 6: my opinion. You know, here and now there's nukes involved,

1180
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:11,799
Speaker 6: so there's no off ramp. You know, he's whenever he

1181
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:14,840
Speaker 6: says something about, oh yeah, I've got what we're talking

1182
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 6: to people, I think he's talking to himself. I think

1183
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:21,240
Speaker 6: he's talking to Netan Yahoo. And you know, I think

1184
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,840
Speaker 6: that they are conspiring to try to keep the markets

1185
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 6: calm uh long enough for them to get those marines

1186
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 6: in place, and then they're gonna do Gallipoli two point

1187
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 6: zero and it's gonna end in disaster. This whole thing's

1188
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 6: ending in disasters. So there is no off ramp. You're

1189
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 6: gonna get a bunch of our people killed, and then

1190
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 6: that's probably gonna lead, in my opinion, to Israel then

1191
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,360
Speaker 6: saying oh, we got to drop a nuke now, because

1192
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 6: net Yahoo Net Yahoo is deeply committed and his people,

1193
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 6: the Lakut Party, they're deeply committed, uh to this course

1194
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 6: of action, utter annihilation of Iran, no matter what. So

1195
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 6: you know this is where it's headed. I think in

1196
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 6: the coming weeks.

1197
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, Brandon, I think an offer amp requires Trump's removal

1198
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:01,560
Speaker 2: from office at this point, because if you're the Iranians,

1199
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 2: why would you ever deal with this? Why would you

1200
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 2: ever nego? They've already said that themistration Yeah, they have

1201
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:09,760
Speaker 2: already said that, and I believe them because multiple times,

1202
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 2: and not just with regard to you know, the build

1203
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 2: up to the Twelve Day War, but in other instances

1204
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 2: as well, we've used diplomacy as a ruse. They see

1205
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 2: what's going on here with Trump just now inventing fake

1206
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 2: diplomacy and once again trying to use it as a

1207
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 2: ruse for whatever his next escalatory plan is. So you

1208
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 2: have that, and then you also look at this man

1209
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 2: who is clearly a menace to the country in the

1210
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 2: world at this point. So, I mean, is there an

1211
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: off ramp. As long as Donald Trump remin's president of

1212
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 2: the United States, I.

1213
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 6: Would have thought the institutions would have snapped back into place,

1214
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 6: and unfortunately not, even people like General Cain ultimately stood

1215
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 6: up to him and said this is not going to work.

1216
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 6: Now the Navy. It's interesting the Navy. You know, he's

1217
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 6: been telling them to go through the strait and the

1218
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 6: Amerals keep saying, we're not doing it. So that's interesting

1219
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 6: that that's sort of not happened yet, thank god. But

1220
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 6: in terms of twenty fourth Amendment, it requires a vice

1221
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 6: president who's willing to stand up to Trump, and I

1222
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 6: don't think mister Vance, for a variety of reasons, is

1223
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 6: willing to do that. He was down in Austin recently

1224
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:18,600
Speaker 6: with Lonsdale and pallanteer guys, and I think the fact

1225
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 6: of the matter is, you know that there's not going

1226
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 6: to be any movement toward actually reasserting some kind of

1227
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 6: constitutional control here because you had Wassam and some of

1228
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:31,320
Speaker 6: these top Vance advisors are are leaving on Moss and

1229
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 6: they're going to be putting in. I was told to

1230
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 6: expect in the coming weeks multiple people close to Vance

1231
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 6: who were foreign policy non interventionists are going to be

1232
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:42,439
Speaker 6: leaving for the private sector. So I don't think there's

1233
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:46,440
Speaker 6: any offer amp there either. I think that when November hits,

1234
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 6: the likelihood as Democrats win and Massey and Kanna do

1235
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 6: an impeachment, you know, a scheme together, that's going to

1236
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 6: be the hope I think for the left. But I

1237
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 6: don't think the Republicans are going to let it happen either.

1238
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 6: The Publicans are going to be rallying to their guy

1239
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 6: who's clearly way off on this one and gonna get

1240
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:07,439
Speaker 6: a lot of people. I mean, he's Trump is gonna

1241
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 6: get a lot of people killed, and he's gonna get

1242
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 6: a lot of people at home hurt with this economic stuff.

1243
00:59:11,600 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 6: This is a disaster.

1244
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 7: Wow.

1245
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 1: Well, Brandon, last thing, why are you so confident about

1246
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 1: the use of nuclear weapon?

1247
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 3: You're one of the only people I know who is like,

1248
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 3: it's going to We're not going to happen. But it's

1249
00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 3: what I'm at like five percent, you're like fifty.

1250
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:25,080
Speaker 1: Why why are you so confident?

1251
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 6: Well, because I think that once the land attack fit.

1252
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 6: It's so bad in Israel right now, and basically Netanya,

1253
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 6: who is completely locked in this is this is all

1254
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 6: or nothing for Netanya. You know, it's nineteen forty five Berlin.

1255
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 6: He's trying to move troops around on that only only

1256
00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 6: exist on a map. So like, this guy's not he's

1257
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 6: not operating in the same reality that we are. And

1258
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 6: so I think what happens is the heat. They're banking

1259
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,800
Speaker 6: on one last Hail Mary being the US marine landings.

1260
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 6: That's not going to work under current conditions. At that point,

1261
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 6: Trump's gonna probably get cold feet and try to figure

1262
00:59:58,000 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 6: out a way to get out of this because he's

1263
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 6: gonna realize things a disaster. And then at that point

1264
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 6: Netan Yahoo is gonna say, no, I'm going this is it.

1265
01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:07,920
Speaker 6: The Americans are getting cold feet. They can't do it.

1266
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 6: I gotta do it. I'm gonna the only thing I've

1267
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,040
Speaker 6: got our nukes. And when all you have is a hammer,

1268
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 6: everything's a nail. And that's why I think this is

1269
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:17,280
Speaker 6: and I don't see any off ramp. I just don't.

1270
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:20,640
Speaker 6: Even if Trump were to taco out today, it's like

1271
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 6: the Israelis don't have to and the Iranians don't have

1272
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 6: to like you have to have, you know, engagement from

1273
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:29,960
Speaker 6: the other two parties. And so far, the Iranians are

1274
01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 6: very confident that they've got what they need, and the

1275
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 6: Israelis are very very worried, and so they're gonna keep

1276
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:37,560
Speaker 6: doubling down to try to get out of this mess

1277
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 6: they've created. So that's where we are, and Trump's sort

1278
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 6: of a passive observer in this whole thing, which is

1279
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:45,440
Speaker 6: really shocking to see an American president in that position.

1280
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:48,720
Speaker 2: Extraordinary stuff. Brandon's always great to speak with you. We

1281
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 2: really appreciate it.

1282
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:50,400
Speaker 1: Thank you.