Speaker 1: You don't want to buy Nvidia, you don't want to
Speaker 1: buy Apple?
Speaker 2: What are you going to do?
Speaker 1: Story and the joints? Now the RBC Capital markets. Do
Speaker 1: you ascribe to the idea mord that the market's lifting
Speaker 1: even away from the normous?
Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast from the best of Economics, Finance, investment,
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Speaker 2: Tell us you listen on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 5: Retailers including Walmart and some others. What's your takeaway from
Speaker 5: earning here? The Corporate America kind of earned their way
Speaker 5: into the multiple thing.
Speaker 4: So look, I think that reporting season was fine. It
Speaker 4: wasn't anything to get too excited about either way.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 4: I think if you go through and you look at
Speaker 4: the beats on both earnings and revenues, we saw very
Speaker 4: strong rates of earning speats. They were less strong on sales,
Speaker 4: and we've seen that for a while now. But what
Speaker 4: that's telling me is that Corporate America is finding a
Speaker 4: way to get it done, and we should applaud them
Speaker 4: for that. But we should also recognize that they are
Speaker 4: finding a way to get it done and they're really
Speaker 4: navigating through a tough cost environment. So I think the
Speaker 4: numbers are good. We've seen the consensus estimate for SMP
Speaker 4: this year go up to two forty five. Again, that's
Speaker 4: basically where we were last summer. Usually that bottom up
Speaker 4: consensus is in the right neighborhood by the time we
Speaker 4: get through this recording season and into June. So I
Speaker 4: think that we've managed to go through it without too
Speaker 4: much damage. And there were a lot of bears who
Speaker 4: were saying the numbers were crazily too high, needed to
Speaker 4: come down, that was going to destroy the market. Well
Speaker 4: that didn't happen.
Speaker 5: Hey, Laurie, I know you and your team, you kind
Speaker 5: of you really go through the earning transcripts to kind
Speaker 5: of get a sense of what corporate management teams are
Speaker 5: are focused on these days. What did you take away
Speaker 5: from the most recent round of earnings?
Speaker 4: You know, it was it was an interesting excerpt, size
Speaker 4: it always is. We've been doing this for a few
Speaker 4: years now. I would say, you know, one of my
Speaker 4: main thoughts as we've got these big inflation prints coming
Speaker 4: out this week is that while companies, you know, certainly
Speaker 4: weren't saying that the cost environment was good. It was
Speaker 4: a pretty balanced discussion. So we had some company saying well,
Speaker 4: cost or elevated. Others were saying, well, input costs have
Speaker 4: come down, or things are normalizing, or things are moderating,
Speaker 4: or we're maybe calling out something like freight expense that
Speaker 4: had gotten a little bit easier. That really contrasts with
Speaker 4: me with what we heard in the last reporting season
Speaker 4: in January through March, when it was almost very uniformly
Speaker 4: a kind of hot inflation commentary, if you will, where
Speaker 4: it was just nothing but negative, negative, negative. So that
Speaker 4: makes me feel a little bit better heading into these prints.
Speaker 4: I'm still a little bit nervous, you know that the economists,
Speaker 4: you know, haven't figured out what they got wrong in
Speaker 4: the first quarter, but admittedly the company commentary has been
Speaker 4: a little bit better on that point.
Speaker 5: So all right, So, given the fact that we've got
Speaker 5: yields pulling back just a little bit here from a
Speaker 5: sector perspective, Laurie, where do you think the best opportunities
Speaker 5: are right here?
Speaker 4: Well, I think that when you're in one of these
Speaker 4: environments right where the macro cross currents right in the narratives,
Speaker 4: it feels like they're just whiplashing, right. It feels like
Speaker 4: they change every few weeks. I think you want to
Speaker 4: really stay focused on things like valuation, things like earning
Speaker 4: revision momentum, and where you're starting to see no more
Speaker 4: frankly upside revisions to analyst estimates than other sectors. And
Speaker 4: a couple of sectors that really jump out to me
Speaker 4: are both energy and financials. We've got very strong valuation
Speaker 4: stories in both. The earnings revisions are improving in both,
Speaker 4: and while materials isn't quite as strong on the earning's
Speaker 4: revision front, we still really like the valuations there. And
Speaker 4: I think when you're getting whiplashed by all these narratives,
Speaker 4: you know, you really just want to stay focused on
Speaker 4: the data.
Speaker 1: I mean, Paul's been going on here with you, It's
Speaker 1: been really, really interesting. I'm looking at the materials sector
Speaker 1: and I'm as guilty as anyone Larie Kelvisina of having
Speaker 1: tech on the brain lynd And Danbury, Connecticut, Dow Chemical
Speaker 1: in others, Sherwin Williams. I mean, materials, how quaint, Paul.
Speaker 1: I know it's from my ute when Laurie was like
Speaker 1: in third grade.
Speaker 5: Went back when she was on the lawn at Uva.
Speaker 5: Laurie talk to us about valuation here, I mean the
Speaker 5: stock market, the S and P five findal let's just
Speaker 5: look at the S and P five hundred's had a
Speaker 5: big move off of those October levels. Has the valuation
Speaker 5: got in front of it? Do I need to strip
Speaker 5: out some of those the handful of the big tech
Speaker 5: names and then get to get more comfortable with valuations
Speaker 5: in these markets?
Speaker 6: How do you think about that?
Speaker 4: So we think about it in a couple of different ways.
Speaker 4: There's forward pees and trailing pees. So let's look at
Speaker 4: forward pees for just a moment, which is what most
Speaker 4: people's preferred gauge. Is not mine actually, but what most
Speaker 4: people like to look at. And if you do that
Speaker 4: for the broader market. To be honest, I haven't looked
Speaker 4: at it for the SMP in a little while, so
Speaker 4: I don't know exactly what that number is. But we
Speaker 4: watch every week the top ten names in the SMP
Speaker 4: versus the rest of the market, and what you see
Speaker 4: on the top ten names is we're right back up
Speaker 4: to twenty seven times. Again, it got as low as
Speaker 4: twenty five times recently. If you just look at a
Speaker 4: median pe of that bucket. It's way about average. It's
Speaker 4: bumping up against recent highs. You can get really scared
Speaker 4: in a hurry if you look at that stat If
Speaker 4: you look at the rest of the market, we're trading
Speaker 4: around sixteen times, so it's a little above average, nowhere
Speaker 4: near past peaks. And it looks to me when you
Speaker 4: see those charts side by side like there's a catch
Speaker 4: up trade that needs to happen. You see this off recoveries.
Speaker 4: One thing typically runs harder off the bottom than at
Speaker 4: some point it digests and pauses, and the other thing
Speaker 4: catches up. And I think that's where we are for
Speaker 4: the rest of the market. And by the way, if
Speaker 4: you ask your typical bysider where they think the market
Speaker 4: should be trading at, they'll tell you fifteen sixteen times
Speaker 4: on forward earnings, And that's exactly where the broad market
Speaker 4: is if you strip out those top ten names.
Speaker 1: Laurie, thank you, Laurie Calvicina with US head of US
Speaker 1: Equity Strategy or RBC Capital Markets trying to get us
Speaker 1: away from Nvidia on the brain, not that any of
Speaker 1: us would be guilty of it. I was waxing philosophical
Speaker 1: with a beverage of my choice in my hands. About
Speaker 1: the legs of a bull market and the support in
Speaker 1: resistance dynamics are different in each leg of a bull market.
Speaker 1: In idiots, Oh excuse me, I didn't say that. Idiots
Speaker 1: that draw little lines pretending to John Maggie amateur. You know,
Speaker 1: it's a good way to get in trouble. Here is
Speaker 1: the word now on support and resistance. Chrisopher own joins
Speaker 1: uh with strtiguas is the support to this great bull
Speaker 1: market different than it was two octobers ago?
Speaker 6: Well, I think the support to this bullmarket is what
Speaker 6: has generally been very supportive leadership. I mean, look at
Speaker 6: the move we've seen these global industrials. Industrials working industrials
Speaker 6: have the highest correlation to the market itself. So when
Speaker 6: industrials are working, the markets generally in pretty good hands.
Speaker 6: We still have that going for us here and I
Speaker 6: think underappreciated, particularly the last six eight weeks as the
Speaker 6: markets come out of this oversoul condition, are the financials
Speaker 6: doctor breaking out not just domestically, but look at the
Speaker 6: European banks. The Japanese banks have resumed the uptrend as well.
Speaker 6: So if you think about industrials and banks as important
Speaker 6: tenets of a bull market. I think this one is
Speaker 6: alive and well.
Speaker 1: My metric is the Sweeney Dow forty thousand. Then what
Speaker 1: does resistance look like? What is the character of resistance
Speaker 1: as we butted us up SPX dial in Nasdaq one hundred.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so fifty two to sixty five I think is
Speaker 6: the high from late March on S and P. What's
Speaker 6: important for us. We wrote about it this morning. You
Speaker 6: still have eighty percent of the S and P above
Speaker 6: the two undred day moving average, so eight out of
Speaker 6: ten names are still trending. That's not where your big
Speaker 6: problems tend to emerge from. Your big problems tend to
Speaker 6: come about when the internal conditions are deteriorating even as
Speaker 6: the market grinds higher. That is not the case here.
Speaker 6: If there's maybe one thing recently that's been on our
Speaker 6: radar that I think deserves perhaps a little bit of pause.
Speaker 6: Consumer discretionary has started to soften here a little bit,
Speaker 6: and it's a juxtapose against the narrative of the consumer
Speaker 6: being very strong. So we're always kind of aware or
Speaker 6: alert to the price action, not necessarily agreeing with the
Speaker 6: consensus story. I think that's the one blemish, but otherwise
Speaker 6: it's a pretty good bull market.
Speaker 5: Hey, Chris, you know, I think most of our listeners,
Speaker 5: most of our viewers on YouTube, they've only known a
Speaker 5: market that's been led by tech. Can tech still lead
Speaker 5: this market higher the next leg up? Or are you
Speaker 5: looking for other areas that you mentioned financials and others.
Speaker 6: I think at best here tech is neutral in terms
Speaker 6: of its leadership bonafides at the moment, and you know
Speaker 6: that I think has been a little underappreciated the last
Speaker 6: six weeks as we kind of corrected and have started
Speaker 6: to come out of the correction, Tech really hasn't returned
Speaker 6: as the as the pronounced leadership of this move. Where
Speaker 6: else is it coming from. It's coming from materials, which
Speaker 6: globally look fantastic. We see the moving copper or the
Speaker 6: chemical stock. So I don't think tech not leading to
Speaker 6: the same extent is ominous. I just think it's a
Speaker 6: reflection of some leadership rotation that's underway. I don't think
Speaker 6: that's something to fear, but people have a lot of
Speaker 6: Tech on it, and I might be a little bit
Speaker 6: more careful there and discretionary relative to some of the
Speaker 6: other leadership that's happening.
Speaker 1: What a yield charts describe right now.
Speaker 6: So I feel against the grain here, and I never
Speaker 6: like going to bed at night feeling I'm fighting against
Speaker 6: the tape. I don't mind fighting against the consensus. I
Speaker 6: don't like fighting the tape. I like bond yield lower here.
Speaker 6: I don't think I'm fighting the tape, but I do
Speaker 6: think I'm fighting the consensus, and I like yields lower
Speaker 6: because look at some of these global ten year yields
Speaker 6: UK ten's, German tens, Swiss tens, Italian tens. They all
Speaker 6: point lower, not higher. So I'm thinking about I'm having
Speaker 6: our team to think about what would be the news
Speaker 6: flow over the next six months if we woke up
Speaker 6: in ten yureed yields for.
Speaker 1: Three Well, was it Wednesday at eight thirty Not to
Speaker 1: pitch the show, but tune in Wednesday at eight thirty CPI.
Speaker 6: It doesn't it seem like the bar is very high
Speaker 6: for yields to surprise on the upside here. That's our suspicion,
Speaker 6: particularly when we look at the global yields. When I
Speaker 6: go back three years ago, we were lucky to get
Speaker 6: the yield up call correct and I think, why do
Speaker 6: we get it right? We got it right because all
Speaker 6: these global yields were telling us bonds everywhere we're gonna weaken,
Speaker 6: and yields would rise. I think it's a bit of
Speaker 6: the opposite set up right here. And then you kind
Speaker 6: of compare that with you know, utilities outperforming a little
Speaker 6: bit better from consumer staples the financials. As we talked about,
Speaker 6: that doesn't sound like leadership where you would expect to
Speaker 6: running away.
Speaker 5: Hey, Chris, you know when we had that big move
Speaker 5: in the S and P five hundred off of that
Speaker 5: October level here, twenty five percent move, A lot of
Speaker 5: folks are saying, hey, we need to see.
Speaker 6: A little bit of a pullback here.
Speaker 5: That would be healthy for a longer term up trend?
Speaker 5: Was that for five percent pullback we had in April?
Speaker 2: Was that it?
Speaker 4: Do you think?
Speaker 2: I think it was a model?
Speaker 6: I mean, we forty eight to fifty was kind of
Speaker 6: the big breakout level from back earlier. The year we
Speaker 6: were traced back to forty nine to fifty. I think
Speaker 6: we got close enough all of our what I would
Speaker 6: describe internal oversould conditions started to flash. We're at a
Speaker 6: minimum when you're in an up trend. Don't get too
Speaker 6: cute about what level your bier at because the trend
Speaker 6: is up. And I still think those are the rules.
Speaker 1: That's where we are right now.
Speaker 6: Absolutely, Okay, we're gonna go technical.
Speaker 1: Now we can do this with Chris Arne. Earl Bloomenthal
Speaker 1: was one of my heroes. I never met on me
Speaker 1: he was a generation before me. But what he've said
Speaker 1: was you could gets as a constructive reaffirmation of a trend.
Speaker 1: And he had a double high pole top and a
Speaker 1: double high pole bottom, and the answer is a La Nvidia,
Speaker 1: you're there and it's OMG, down you go and then
Speaker 1: you come back and that's a bottom. Are we seeing
Speaker 1: catharsis internally within the popular stocks of the day that
Speaker 1: will allow them to drive harder or are we in
Speaker 1: a zombie lethargy, as Lisa Matteo says.
Speaker 2: We are.
Speaker 6: I think we're in a little bit of a rotational
Speaker 6: way from the stocks that have driven this move for
Speaker 6: the first You know, fourteen fifteen months off October twenty
Speaker 6: twenty two is low into something else, and I think
Speaker 6: you see that reflected in materials, working in industrials, working
Speaker 6: in financials working. I think this is less about tech
Speaker 6: and discretionary, which were kind of the early cycle moves.
Speaker 6: Now are these things done? Is is Google done? Is
Speaker 6: Nvidia done? I don't think so. I just don't think
Speaker 6: they're returning as the same leadership coming out of this
Speaker 6: correction that they once were. And I think ultimately, to
Speaker 6: make the case that those stocks should be sold or
Speaker 6: that they're finished, you need to see bigger volatility systems
Speaker 6: break when volve gets too heavy or too big, and
Speaker 6: you don't have that yet with those names. We spent
Speaker 6: a lot of time in the last couple of months
Speaker 6: going back and evaluating how all the big tech stocks
Speaker 6: at ninety nine, how they peaked in two thousand and
Speaker 6: the one thing they all had in common was they
Speaker 6: ended on big volatility. Is six months it was, you know,
Speaker 6: three percent up, four percent down, five percent up. We
Speaker 6: don't have that here yet.
Speaker 1: But Paul, we don't have the dearth of cash flow
Speaker 1: that we had in nineteen ninety nine, got real cash
Speaker 1: lo I look at the cash flow statements of these companies.
Speaker 1: None of the textbooks I studied have that. It's an
Speaker 1: original thing that we're dealing with.
Speaker 6: I actually wondered Tom if that ultimately is going to
Speaker 6: be the psychological hurdle for people if these stocks actually
Speaker 6: begin to weaken at some point down them the line,
Speaker 6: they're going to fall too back on. Oh well, at
Speaker 6: least they have cash flow. At least they still earn
Speaker 6: I agree, And you know that's not dissimilar the nifty
Speaker 6: to fifty as they peaked in seventy three, seventy four.
Speaker 6: They had earnings, they had revenue, they had cash flow.
Speaker 6: Just what the market was willing to pay for them changed,
Speaker 6: and that I think is ultimately the bigger question down
Speaker 6: the line.
Speaker 1: Okay, what's your single best idea right now? All the charts.
Speaker 1: You look at Jason Trent and sitting there when Olivia
Speaker 1: in hand, and he says, what's the single best idea?
Speaker 2: Chris?
Speaker 6: I think these breakouts in the global material charts are
Speaker 6: hands down the best thing in our work. I think
Speaker 6: the reflection of an improving China. We were early there.
Speaker 6: So you're lung copper, I'm long copper, I'm long Chinese equities.
Speaker 6: Put my foot on the pedal.
Speaker 1: There, very good Chris outstandings. Tatigez So, I can't say
Speaker 1: enough about this, folks. There's two kinds of technical analysis
Speaker 1: trend based and stochastic, and Chris Verona and I have
Speaker 1: sampled the kool aid at the trend based and that's
Speaker 1: the technical analysis driving the ship and truly the New
Speaker 1: City Group. Jason Riquet joins us right now global head
Speaker 1: of Corporate Banking for all of City Group. And this
Speaker 1: after a tour duty including being in Tokyo is early
Speaker 1: is January is well? You have the heritage and pedigree
Speaker 1: of your company. John Reid would say, this is a
Speaker 1: guy we built. What's the New City Group look like
Speaker 1: in corporate banking?
Speaker 2: Love the question. I think the short answer is it's
Speaker 2: not changed. From that perspective.
Speaker 7: We have retained the most important element of our DNA
Speaker 7: in this gigantic reorganization, which is our globality, our reach,
Speaker 7: our ability to serve multinational companies across the world.
Speaker 5: And Jason, I know you did your tour in Japan.
Speaker 5: I did my Somber Wilders tour there back in the
Speaker 5: very early nineties. Then it fell off the we haven't
Speaker 5: talked about Japan for like twenty five years. Why are
Speaker 5: we now talking about Japan?
Speaker 2: Japan is back. It's fantastic right now. Why is it back?
Speaker 6: How is it back?
Speaker 7: Well, I think they Japan's been doing the hard yards
Speaker 7: for many years. In this long period of deflation of
Speaker 7: a sort of a stagged an economy which didn't feel great.
Speaker 7: The Japanese companies, the banks, the multinationals were continuing to
Speaker 7: press forward with investment, with reshaping the economy, knowing they
Speaker 7: had some demographic issues they are going to have to
Speaker 7: sort out. The outbound investment from Japan became more and
Speaker 7: more fundamental to their sort of overall strategy as a country.
Speaker 7: I think what's happened is the world has caught up
Speaker 7: and figured it out. I mean, there's some important developments there.
Speaker 7: I think one thing that really helped, honestly was in
Speaker 7: terms of just bringing attention to Japan and the market,
Speaker 7: there was Warren Buffet's investment in the five Trading companies.
Speaker 7: It just made people say, what exactly are those companies
Speaker 7: and why are they interesting? We've known about them for years,
Speaker 7: We've been banks to them for fifteen years.
Speaker 5: I know, City you guys have been. I mean, but
Speaker 5: it's just amazing. All right, Head of corporate banking at City,
Speaker 5: that is it?
Speaker 1: Man?
Speaker 2: Are you are you?
Speaker 5: Are you guys making loans? Are your customers do they
Speaker 5: need capital, are you guys making loans?
Speaker 7: What our customers need is everything. I mean, lending is
Speaker 7: an important part of it, and that's what we use
Speaker 7: to sort of cement and create the foundation of those relationships.
Speaker 7: But what we do as a firm is goes way
Speaker 7: beyond that are and what we do in corporate banking
Speaker 7: is trying to make sure we deliver the entire firm,
Speaker 7: a big global enterprise to them. So they need risk
Speaker 7: management tools, they need cash management, they need advisory, they
Speaker 7: need access to capital markets, and that's what we want
Speaker 7: to make sure that we deliver it wherever they need it,
Speaker 7: whatever currency they need, whatever sort of risk exposure they've got.
Speaker 1: I've got to talk to you about the New City Group,
Speaker 1: which I just think is so important because those of
Speaker 1: us weaned on John Reid and Walter Riston and the rest.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it's a bank that's lost this way. A
Speaker 1: woman from Scotland and the United Kingdom has coming and
Speaker 1: raised raised Hell and Jane Frasier. The New City Group.
Speaker 1: What is its global distinction when on the door of
Speaker 1: the many different kinds of corporate clients you have.
Speaker 7: It's not a hard it's not a hard discussion to
Speaker 7: have with clients because they know us already, they know
Speaker 7: what we do. I think what our clients we're looking
Speaker 7: for is to make sure this is the discussion I've
Speaker 7: had with lots of them.
Speaker 2: How are you different? How are you the same?
Speaker 7: And the question is the things we've done have been
Speaker 7: very internally focused at making sure we're simpler, we're easier
Speaker 7: to operate, and that we've removed some areas of bureaucracy
Speaker 7: that are.
Speaker 1: You the boutique of the major banks? Is that what
Speaker 1: this is really kind of.
Speaker 2: Not at all, not at all.
Speaker 7: In fact, some of the things we do for our
Speaker 7: clients are things that no other bank can do. We
Speaker 7: operate in more countries, we have the biggest cash management
Speaker 7: network where we're participating in every corner of the capital market.
Speaker 7: So not just the easy stuff, not just the G
Speaker 7: three currencies, but all the exotics, all the emerging markets.
Speaker 1: So then explain your Saudi Arabian relationship that was fracticed
Speaker 1: for years. Explain the New City Group into Saudi Arabia
Speaker 1: or the New City Group into Mexico where retail walked
Speaker 1: away years ago. Explain the strategic corporate banking effort in
Speaker 1: some of these countries.
Speaker 7: It's it's it's incredibly important to look at both both
Speaker 7: Saudi and the and the rest of the region there
Speaker 7: because the capital formation coming out of Saudi, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait,
Speaker 7: what's happening there is critical because what we see on
Speaker 7: these companies, these countries and the companies that exist in
Speaker 7: them is an ability to export capital and technology and
Speaker 7: know how, we're seeing some of the most important investments
Speaker 7: in things like renewable energy coming from that region. So
Speaker 7: from our perspective, helping those those companies and those countries
Speaker 7: move outside of their home markets is really important.
Speaker 1: Paul, jump in here, but the next time you're in Dubai,
Speaker 1: you need a long conversation with Jumana Pertecci's over there.
Speaker 2: Hold love do love to do?
Speaker 5: Plugged in there, Jason. I love to get your thoughts
Speaker 5: on and city's thoughts on India because a lot of
Speaker 5: folks are pitching that to us as everything you knew
Speaker 5: about China for the last twenty twenty five years, put
Speaker 5: it to India for the next twenty to twenty five years,
Speaker 5: maybe even with obviously a more friendly government. How do
Speaker 5: you guys think about it?
Speaker 6: You've been there, since I.
Speaker 2: Try not to be overly bullish.
Speaker 7: I'm a guy who lends money, and so I have
Speaker 7: to be balanced and how I think about it. But
Speaker 7: I was there about a month ago. I go to
Speaker 7: India once or twice a year, and I've been doing
Speaker 7: that for over ten years. I've never seen a more
Speaker 7: constructive investment environment that I've seen in this past year
Speaker 7: in India. What's happening there is extraordinary. There's going to
Speaker 7: be a massive supercycle I think coming out of if
Speaker 7: this election wraps up. It doesn't seem like it's going
Speaker 7: to be very dramatic in terms of the outcome. We
Speaker 7: all kind of know Prime Minister.
Speaker 2: Motor will continue what he's planning to do.
Speaker 7: In terms of investment in this country to make it
Speaker 7: competitive and get to his twenty forty seven goal of
Speaker 7: becoming a developed country.
Speaker 2: Is incredible.
Speaker 7: That five hundred gigawatts of new power, a rail system,
Speaker 7: of roads system airports that can't be beat. You're feeling
Speaker 7: it already my last trip there. New tunnels, new roads,
Speaker 7: shovel ready projects that are starting to kick off.
Speaker 2: It's really interesting, well risked.
Speaker 1: In one oh one call on the Utilities of America,
Speaker 1: they're having a renaissance now because got to build out
Speaker 1: for AI. What do you see there granular From a
Speaker 1: granular standpoint, what does your team see of investment in
Speaker 1: electricity in America?
Speaker 7: That's so that's the critical thing AI. Also the support
Speaker 7: for you know, renewable fuels and and and synthetic fuels,
Speaker 7: all of that plus the evy kind of revolution. The
Speaker 7: amount of power that we're all going to need, not
Speaker 7: just the US but globally is extraordinary. I I think
Speaker 7: we have to take it all of the above approach
Speaker 7: to this. What's going to happen is, you know, we're
Speaker 7: gonna we're going to continue to push.
Speaker 2: All of the renewable options.
Speaker 7: But given what we think is happening at AI and
Speaker 7: the requirement for data centers, it's it's going to go
Speaker 7: way beyond that. We need to make sure. My view
Speaker 7: is it's going to require nuclear. It's going to require
Speaker 7: and there's going to be a significant period of transition
Speaker 7: where we're going to continue to use things like gas
Speaker 7: fired power to get get to those levels. Because the
Speaker 7: what we're seeing in the US right very specifically, but
Speaker 7: also everywhere else India, Brazil, China, I mean, the everybody's
Speaker 7: gonna be building out MASSI.
Speaker 1: Data the French loadonness John Michaelswaye with McCrow very quickly.
Speaker 1: Here you're saying we're going to see a nuclear energy
Speaker 1: build out across America like what France owns.
Speaker 7: I don't think it'll be quite as I don't think
Speaker 7: nuclear will be a big a part of the solution
Speaker 7: for the US. But there's gonna be more than I've
Speaker 7: had before. But France has gone sort of all in.
Speaker 7: That's that's gonna be there there long term sas.
Speaker 1: Okay, thank you so much. With City Group head of
Speaker 1: all over your court.
Speaker 2: Thank you wors based in New York. Worst elevators in
Speaker 2: global Can you do.
Speaker 1: An infrastructure investment an the elevators? Jason, thank you got it.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 2: You daily look at the front pages around the world.
Speaker 1: It's highlighted my weekend Mother's Day. I couldn't tap it
Speaker 1: head to toe in Nick's.
Speaker 6: Merch I did.
Speaker 8: I got the Brentson jersey, I had the Knicks hat. Yeah,
Speaker 8: I got hooked up from other's day. Of course, I
Speaker 8: really wanted to throw it off when I was watching
Speaker 8: the game.
Speaker 5: But that's okay, he.
Speaker 1: Said, well, I'm trying to get from Paul to the
Speaker 1: next game. He's got thy Okay.
Speaker 8: This one came from Lucashaw's newsletter always go to that. Yes,
Speaker 8: really good. He's he's talking about how Netflix, Amazon, and
Speaker 8: Apple they want to change the way they pay Hollywood talent.
Speaker 8: So what he's saying is that Apple has to begin
Speaker 8: basing pay on how the series or movies perform. So,
Speaker 8: for example, talent received bonuses based on three things. A
Speaker 8: number of people who signed up for Apple TV plus
Speaker 8: to watch, how much time they spend viewing, and the
Speaker 8: cost of the program relative to the size of its audience.
Speaker 8: So this is something different. It's a Netflix, Amazon, they're
Speaker 8: also considering performance based compensation, but it's something different As
Speaker 8: to how.
Speaker 1: I read every word thinking of Paul Sweeney, Lisa and
Speaker 1: Paul to me, and the back end of lucas Shaw's
Speaker 1: brilliant note is okay, show us the data and they
Speaker 1: just they they think they have a rule book different
Speaker 1: than the days where we knew guns smoke was number one.
Speaker 5: Exactly right, You're exactly right, Tom, So uh, you know
Speaker 5: that I suspect the talent and more importantly, their their agents.
Speaker 5: We're like, okay, that's fine, but show us, show us
Speaker 5: the data. We don't mind getting the back end, you know,
Speaker 5: and as supposed.
Speaker 1: To Shogun does well and something else doesn't do as well,
Speaker 1: but you gotta show the data.
Speaker 5: But again, kind of Amazon, Apple, Netflix, they're the ones
Speaker 5: that have the money.
Speaker 6: They have the checkbooks. These days, they drive next.
Speaker 8: Yes, okay. So along similar lines, we've been talking a
Speaker 8: lot of TV advertising, how it's been going down, but
Speaker 8: a lot of brands moving away from TV advertising. They're
Speaker 8: moving to Google, Meta, TikTok to reach these new audiences.
Speaker 8: Here's an example. Mandalis they wanted to promote this limited
Speaker 8: edition Oreo cookie, so they didn't spend a dime on
Speaker 8: TV advertising. Where they went. They went to Instagram, they
Speaker 8: went to TikTok, they went to the websites of large
Speaker 8: retailers like Amazon and Walmart. So you're seeing the shift
Speaker 8: because the people they're trying to reach, the gen z ors,
Speaker 8: multiculture Audi It says there aren't watching enough TV.
Speaker 6: And so this is May.
Speaker 5: Tom May is a time for the upfronts, which we've
Speaker 5: been done since the beginning of time for television, where
Speaker 5: the TV networks sell maybe eighty percent of their next
Speaker 5: year's advertising inventory today in May, and for a discount.
Speaker 6: Does that even matter anymore?
Speaker 5: Our brand's even spending on broadcasting cable television. And here's
Speaker 5: here's the data from the Wall Street Journal story. The
Speaker 5: maker of Rich Crackers and Sour Patch Kids candy is
Speaker 5: spending about fifteen percent of its US AD budget on
Speaker 5: TV this year, down from forty two percent.
Speaker 1: Three years ago. And what's important here? Did youday have this?
Speaker 1: I read it cover to cover. Now learning about YouTube
Speaker 1: and what we're doing on Bloomberg Surveillance and Lisa, they
Speaker 1: have great legitimate math that on Instagram, most people look
Speaker 1: at the still photos. They don't look at the reels
Speaker 1: and the mass like six to one, it's huge. Where
Speaker 1: people the reels okay, cute, great, nobody cares. They look
Speaker 1: at still photos for messaging.
Speaker 8: It's interest because it used to be the opposite. So
Speaker 8: that's interesting.
Speaker 1: A little shit there next.
Speaker 8: Okay, we've been talking about inflation data, right PPI CPI,
Speaker 8: But apparently chicken sales that's what people are looking for
Speaker 8: for the new inflation gauge. Okay, because shoppers trade down
Speaker 8: to chicken from pricier meat cuts. When the food prices
Speaker 8: are high, so that's what they're seeing that shift, So
Speaker 8: diners are buying more chicken wings at fast food places,
Speaker 8: frozen tenders at grocery stores. You had Tyson Food. They're
Speaker 8: bringing in higher profits from poultry instead of their other meats.
Speaker 8: Restaurants pushing chicken options, so you start to see that
Speaker 8: cheaper chicken prices, though not likely to stay for long,
Speaker 8: of course, because wholesale prices they're rising the man's sticking up.
Speaker 8: Supplies are starting to thin out, but looking to chicken.
Speaker 5: A dwindling supply of cattle in the US means meat
Speaker 5: packers like Tyson are paying more to secure their lives,
Speaker 5: like where are the cows going?
Speaker 6: What's the big thing?
Speaker 2: Go open?
Speaker 1: Sess got a beautiful exercise on this, I'm going to
Speaker 1: say fifteen twenty years ago, and you know it links
Speaker 1: chicken beef rather with pork, with chickens, and the dynamics
Speaker 1: are very sophisticated about chicken. Should we raise more cows
Speaker 1: or not? And went somewhere in the rest of the country,
Speaker 1: it's like, what do we do with the pigs? And
Speaker 1: then what do we do with the good park chickens?
Speaker 1: Way more chicken at home.
Speaker 6: I ate more chicken. I know that's cheaper, not just
Speaker 6: you can't eat beef. No, you can't chicken. You can
Speaker 6: eat more frequent right, I mean you're the health expert.
Speaker 1: Yes.
Speaker 8: And turkey, ground turkey.
Speaker 5: Okay, I.
Speaker 1: Won't come on.
Speaker 8: You gotta switch to the ground turkey because I don't
Speaker 8: want to hear about.
Speaker 6: Okay.
Speaker 8: My favorite story is today Costco becoming the hot spot
Speaker 8: for adult birthday parties. Okay, it's blowing up on TikTok,
Speaker 8: and here's how it works.
Speaker 6: My husband is listening to this.
Speaker 8: But the unsuspecting birthday person, all right, they start seeing
Speaker 8: them random friends, relatives throughout the stores are shopping and
Speaker 8: they're like, oh, it's a coincidence. How nice everyone's here today.
Speaker 8: And then all of a sudden, when they're done checking out,
Speaker 8: they go to the food court at the end and
Speaker 8: there everybody is surprise, surprise, They sing happy birthday. It
Speaker 8: becomes this whole party. But one person said it's because
Speaker 8: it's a cheaper alternative.
Speaker 5: Okay.
Speaker 8: She spent just thirty dollars and eighty eight cents on
Speaker 8: her birthday dinner for seven people because they bought hot
Speaker 8: dogs and soda combos. Okay, that's what it's coming up to.
Speaker 8: They were Costco hoodies got into all the you know,
Speaker 8: the the birthday celebrations. So it's it's cheaper. I mean
Speaker 8: unless you go into Costco shoppings for you like me,
Speaker 8: and you spend five hundred bucks and it's not really cheaper.
Speaker 5: But so this party was hosted at the Fort Oglethorpe
Speaker 5: Costco warehouse in Wringled, Georgia.
Speaker 6: Pretty cool. Yeah, so I mean, is it the hot dog?
Speaker 6: Is that the thing?
Speaker 8: It's the hot dog soda combo. It's like two bucks
Speaker 8: or something.
Speaker 5: People love Costco.
Speaker 8: I know my mother goes to Costco for two things,
Speaker 8: the hot dog and vodka.
Speaker 6: And on the vodka.
Speaker 8: Say that, mom, So then you have the hot dog
Speaker 8: and the vodka.
Speaker 6: That's what she goes.
Speaker 4: That's it.
Speaker 8: But you have to have a membership to attend the party.
Speaker 8: That's the other thing. How they kind of I'm not
Speaker 8: a member of Yeah, so you're not a member. You
Speaker 8: can't go to the party member. You have to be remember,
Speaker 8: I just go costco dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, all right, okay, Lisa, thank you so much
Speaker 1: ending on Costco. Can we get you know, can we large.
Speaker 1: You know that we're going to Costco. This is coming weekend. Sure,
Speaker 1: see Alisa Matteo SURDAYE get the food over there.
Speaker 6: Where's where's our Costco? Lisa? Where do we go? Costco?
Speaker 8: I go to the one. There's one in North Plainfield,
Speaker 8: there's one in Union, there's one in Yeah, New Jersey,
Speaker 8: and there's not one in one in Brooklyn.
Speaker 6: Actually there's one. Okay, you can go to Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate this.
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