1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,800 Speaker 1: You don't want to buy Nvidia, you don't want to 2 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: buy Apple? 3 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 2: What are you going to do? 4 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Story and the joints? Now the RBC Capital markets. Do 5 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,120 Speaker 1: you ascribe to the idea mord that the market's lifting 6 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: even away from the normous? 7 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast from the best of Economics, Finance, investment, 8 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 3: and the International Relations. You can also watch to show 9 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 3: on YouTube The Bloomberg Podcast on YouTube. Just see Weekday Morning. 10 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 4: Actually City people subscribe to the podcast on Spotify. 11 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 2: Tell us you listen on Bloomberg Radio. 12 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 5: Retailers including Walmart and some others. What's your takeaway from 13 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 5: earning here? The Corporate America kind of earned their way 14 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 5: into the multiple thing. 15 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 4: So look, I think that reporting season was fine. It 16 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 4: wasn't anything to get too excited about either way. 17 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: You know. 18 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 4: I think if you go through and you look at 19 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 4: the beats on both earnings and revenues, we saw very 20 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 4: strong rates of earning speats. They were less strong on sales, 21 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 4: and we've seen that for a while now. But what 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 4: that's telling me is that Corporate America is finding a 23 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 4: way to get it done, and we should applaud them 24 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 4: for that. But we should also recognize that they are 25 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 4: finding a way to get it done and they're really 26 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 4: navigating through a tough cost environment. So I think the 27 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 4: numbers are good. We've seen the consensus estimate for SMP 28 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 4: this year go up to two forty five. Again, that's 29 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 4: basically where we were last summer. Usually that bottom up 30 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 4: consensus is in the right neighborhood by the time we 31 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 4: get through this recording season and into June. So I 32 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 4: think that we've managed to go through it without too 33 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 4: much damage. And there were a lot of bears who 34 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 4: were saying the numbers were crazily too high, needed to 35 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 4: come down, that was going to destroy the market. Well 36 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 4: that didn't happen. 37 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 5: Hey, Laurie, I know you and your team, you kind 38 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 5: of you really go through the earning transcripts to kind 39 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 5: of get a sense of what corporate management teams are 40 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,559 Speaker 5: are focused on these days. What did you take away 41 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 5: from the most recent round of earnings? 42 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 4: You know, it was it was an interesting excerpt, size 43 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 4: it always is. We've been doing this for a few 44 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 4: years now. I would say, you know, one of my 45 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: main thoughts as we've got these big inflation prints coming 46 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 4: out this week is that while companies, you know, certainly 47 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 4: weren't saying that the cost environment was good. It was 48 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 4: a pretty balanced discussion. So we had some company saying well, 49 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 4: cost or elevated. Others were saying, well, input costs have 50 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 4: come down, or things are normalizing, or things are moderating, 51 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 4: or we're maybe calling out something like freight expense that 52 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 4: had gotten a little bit easier. That really contrasts with 53 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 4: me with what we heard in the last reporting season 54 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 4: in January through March, when it was almost very uniformly 55 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 4: a kind of hot inflation commentary, if you will, where 56 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 4: it was just nothing but negative, negative, negative. So that 57 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 4: makes me feel a little bit better heading into these prints. 58 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 4: I'm still a little bit nervous, you know that the economists, 59 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 4: you know, haven't figured out what they got wrong in 60 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 4: the first quarter, but admittedly the company commentary has been 61 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 4: a little bit better on that point. 62 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 5: So all right, So, given the fact that we've got 63 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 5: yields pulling back just a little bit here from a 64 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 5: sector perspective, Laurie, where do you think the best opportunities 65 00:02:59,000 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 5: are right here? 66 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 4: Well, I think that when you're in one of these 67 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 4: environments right where the macro cross currents right in the narratives, 68 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 4: it feels like they're just whiplashing, right. It feels like 69 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 4: they change every few weeks. I think you want to 70 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 4: really stay focused on things like valuation, things like earning 71 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,399 Speaker 4: revision momentum, and where you're starting to see no more 72 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 4: frankly upside revisions to analyst estimates than other sectors. And 73 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 4: a couple of sectors that really jump out to me 74 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 4: are both energy and financials. We've got very strong valuation 75 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 4: stories in both. The earnings revisions are improving in both, 76 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 4: and while materials isn't quite as strong on the earning's 77 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 4: revision front, we still really like the valuations there. And 78 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 4: I think when you're getting whiplashed by all these narratives, 79 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 4: you know, you really just want to stay focused on 80 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 4: the data. 81 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,119 Speaker 1: I mean, Paul's been going on here with you, It's 82 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: been really, really interesting. I'm looking at the materials sector 83 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: and I'm as guilty as anyone Larie Kelvisina of having 84 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: tech on the brain lynd And Danbury, Connecticut, Dow Chemical 85 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: in others, Sherwin Williams. I mean, materials, how quaint, Paul. 86 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: I know it's from my ute when Laurie was like 87 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:04,839 Speaker 1: in third grade. 88 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 5: Went back when she was on the lawn at Uva. 89 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 5: Laurie talk to us about valuation here, I mean the 90 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 5: stock market, the S and P five findal let's just 91 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 5: look at the S and P five hundred's had a 92 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 5: big move off of those October levels. Has the valuation 93 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:19,559 Speaker 5: got in front of it? Do I need to strip 94 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 5: out some of those the handful of the big tech 95 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 5: names and then get to get more comfortable with valuations 96 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:26,119 Speaker 5: in these markets? 97 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 6: How do you think about that? 98 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 4: So we think about it in a couple of different ways. 99 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 4: There's forward pees and trailing pees. So let's look at 100 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 4: forward pees for just a moment, which is what most 101 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 4: people's preferred gauge. Is not mine actually, but what most 102 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 4: people like to look at. And if you do that 103 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 4: for the broader market. To be honest, I haven't looked 104 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 4: at it for the SMP in a little while, so 105 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 4: I don't know exactly what that number is. But we 106 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 4: watch every week the top ten names in the SMP 107 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 4: versus the rest of the market, and what you see 108 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 4: on the top ten names is we're right back up 109 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 4: to twenty seven times. Again, it got as low as 110 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 4: twenty five times recently. If you just look at a 111 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 4: median pe of that bucket. It's way about average. It's 112 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 4: bumping up against recent highs. You can get really scared 113 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 4: in a hurry if you look at that stat If 114 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 4: you look at the rest of the market, we're trading 115 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 4: around sixteen times, so it's a little above average, nowhere 116 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 4: near past peaks. And it looks to me when you 117 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 4: see those charts side by side like there's a catch 118 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 4: up trade that needs to happen. You see this off recoveries. 119 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 4: One thing typically runs harder off the bottom than at 120 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 4: some point it digests and pauses, and the other thing 121 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 4: catches up. And I think that's where we are for 122 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 4: the rest of the market. And by the way, if 123 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 4: you ask your typical bysider where they think the market 124 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 4: should be trading at, they'll tell you fifteen sixteen times 125 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 4: on forward earnings, And that's exactly where the broad market 126 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 4: is if you strip out those top ten names. 127 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: Laurie, thank you, Laurie Calvicina with US head of US 128 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: Equity Strategy or RBC Capital Markets trying to get us 129 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: away from Nvidia on the brain, not that any of 130 00:05:48,000 --> 00:06:02,479 Speaker 1: us would be guilty of it. I was waxing philosophical 131 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: with a beverage of my choice in my hands. About 132 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: the legs of a bull market and the support in 133 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: resistance dynamics are different in each leg of a bull market. 134 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: In idiots, Oh excuse me, I didn't say that. Idiots 135 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 1: that draw little lines pretending to John Maggie amateur. You know, 136 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: it's a good way to get in trouble. Here is 137 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: the word now on support and resistance. Chrisopher own joins 138 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 1: uh with strtiguas is the support to this great bull 139 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 1: market different than it was two octobers ago? 140 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 6: Well, I think the support to this bullmarket is what 141 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 6: has generally been very supportive leadership. I mean, look at 142 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 6: the move we've seen these global industrials. Industrials working industrials 143 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 6: have the highest correlation to the market itself. So when 144 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 6: industrials are working, the markets generally in pretty good hands. 145 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:52,840 Speaker 6: We still have that going for us here and I 146 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 6: think underappreciated, particularly the last six eight weeks as the 147 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 6: markets come out of this oversoul condition, are the financials 148 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 6: doctor breaking out not just domestically, but look at the 149 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 6: European banks. The Japanese banks have resumed the uptrend as well. 150 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 6: So if you think about industrials and banks as important 151 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 6: tenets of a bull market. I think this one is 152 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 6: alive and well. 153 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: My metric is the Sweeney Dow forty thousand. Then what 154 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: does resistance look like? What is the character of resistance 155 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: as we butted us up SPX dial in Nasdaq one hundred. 156 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, so fifty two to sixty five I think is 157 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 6: the high from late March on S and P. What's 158 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 6: important for us. We wrote about it this morning. You 159 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 6: still have eighty percent of the S and P above 160 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 6: the two undred day moving average, so eight out of 161 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 6: ten names are still trending. That's not where your big 162 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 6: problems tend to emerge from. Your big problems tend to 163 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 6: come about when the internal conditions are deteriorating even as 164 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 6: the market grinds higher. That is not the case here. 165 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 6: If there's maybe one thing recently that's been on our 166 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 6: radar that I think deserves perhaps a little bit of pause. 167 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 6: Consumer discretionary has started to soften here a little bit, 168 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 6: and it's a juxtapose against the narrative of the consumer 169 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 6: being very strong. So we're always kind of aware or 170 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 6: alert to the price action, not necessarily agreeing with the 171 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 6: consensus story. I think that's the one blemish, but otherwise 172 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 6: it's a pretty good bull market. 173 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 5: Hey, Chris, you know, I think most of our listeners, 174 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 5: most of our viewers on YouTube, they've only known a 175 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 5: market that's been led by tech. Can tech still lead 176 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 5: this market higher the next leg up? Or are you 177 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 5: looking for other areas that you mentioned financials and others. 178 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 6: I think at best here tech is neutral in terms 179 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 6: of its leadership bonafides at the moment, and you know 180 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 6: that I think has been a little underappreciated the last 181 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 6: six weeks as we kind of corrected and have started 182 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 6: to come out of the correction, Tech really hasn't returned 183 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,959 Speaker 6: as the as the pronounced leadership of this move. Where 184 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 6: else is it coming from. It's coming from materials, which 185 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 6: globally look fantastic. We see the moving copper or the 186 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 6: chemical stock. So I don't think tech not leading to 187 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 6: the same extent is ominous. I just think it's a 188 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 6: reflection of some leadership rotation that's underway. I don't think 189 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 6: that's something to fear, but people have a lot of 190 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 6: Tech on it, and I might be a little bit 191 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 6: more careful there and discretionary relative to some of the 192 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 6: other leadership that's happening. 193 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: What a yield charts describe right now. 194 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 6: So I feel against the grain here, and I never 195 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 6: like going to bed at night feeling I'm fighting against 196 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 6: the tape. I don't mind fighting against the consensus. I 197 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 6: don't like fighting the tape. I like bond yield lower here. 198 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 6: I don't think I'm fighting the tape, but I do 199 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 6: think I'm fighting the consensus, and I like yields lower 200 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 6: because look at some of these global ten year yields 201 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:30,839 Speaker 6: UK ten's, German tens, Swiss tens, Italian tens. They all 202 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 6: point lower, not higher. So I'm thinking about I'm having 203 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 6: our team to think about what would be the news 204 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 6: flow over the next six months if we woke up 205 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 6: in ten yureed yields for. 206 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: Three Well, was it Wednesday at eight thirty Not to 207 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: pitch the show, but tune in Wednesday at eight thirty CPI. 208 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 6: It doesn't it seem like the bar is very high 209 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 6: for yields to surprise on the upside here. That's our suspicion, 210 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 6: particularly when we look at the global yields. When I 211 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 6: go back three years ago, we were lucky to get 212 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:00,319 Speaker 6: the yield up call correct and I think, why do 213 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 6: we get it right? We got it right because all 214 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 6: these global yields were telling us bonds everywhere we're gonna weaken, 215 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 6: and yields would rise. I think it's a bit of 216 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 6: the opposite set up right here. And then you kind 217 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 6: of compare that with you know, utilities outperforming a little 218 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 6: bit better from consumer staples the financials. As we talked about, 219 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 6: that doesn't sound like leadership where you would expect to 220 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 6: running away. 221 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 5: Hey, Chris, you know when we had that big move 222 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 5: in the S and P five hundred off of that 223 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 5: October level here, twenty five percent move, A lot of 224 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 5: folks are saying, hey, we need to see. 225 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 6: A little bit of a pullback here. 226 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 5: That would be healthy for a longer term up trend? 227 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 5: Was that for five percent pullback we had in April? 228 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 2: Was that it? 229 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 4: Do you think? 230 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 2: I think it was a model? 231 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 6: I mean, we forty eight to fifty was kind of 232 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 6: the big breakout level from back earlier. The year we 233 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 6: were traced back to forty nine to fifty. I think 234 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 6: we got close enough all of our what I would 235 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 6: describe internal oversould conditions started to flash. We're at a 236 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:55,839 Speaker 6: minimum when you're in an up trend. Don't get too 237 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 6: cute about what level your bier at because the trend 238 00:10:58,080 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 6: is up. And I still think those are the rules. 239 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: That's where we are right now. 240 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 6: Absolutely, Okay, we're gonna go technical. 241 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,839 Speaker 1: Now we can do this with Chris Arne. Earl Bloomenthal 242 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: was one of my heroes. I never met on me 243 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: he was a generation before me. But what he've said 244 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: was you could gets as a constructive reaffirmation of a trend. 245 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: And he had a double high pole top and a 246 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: double high pole bottom, and the answer is a La Nvidia, 247 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: you're there and it's OMG, down you go and then 248 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: you come back and that's a bottom. Are we seeing 249 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: catharsis internally within the popular stocks of the day that 250 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: will allow them to drive harder or are we in 251 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: a zombie lethargy, as Lisa Matteo says. 252 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 2: We are. 253 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 6: I think we're in a little bit of a rotational 254 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 6: way from the stocks that have driven this move for 255 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 6: the first You know, fourteen fifteen months off October twenty 256 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 6: twenty two is low into something else, and I think 257 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 6: you see that reflected in materials, working in industrials, working 258 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 6: in financials working. I think this is less about tech 259 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 6: and discretionary, which were kind of the early cycle moves. 260 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 6: Now are these things done? Is is Google done? Is 261 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 6: Nvidia done? I don't think so. I just don't think 262 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 6: they're returning as the same leadership coming out of this 263 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 6: correction that they once were. And I think ultimately, to 264 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 6: make the case that those stocks should be sold or 265 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 6: that they're finished, you need to see bigger volatility systems 266 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 6: break when volve gets too heavy or too big, and 267 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 6: you don't have that yet with those names. We spent 268 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 6: a lot of time in the last couple of months 269 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 6: going back and evaluating how all the big tech stocks 270 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 6: at ninety nine, how they peaked in two thousand and 271 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 6: the one thing they all had in common was they 272 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 6: ended on big volatility. Is six months it was, you know, 273 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 6: three percent up, four percent down, five percent up. We 274 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 6: don't have that here yet. 275 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: But Paul, we don't have the dearth of cash flow 276 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: that we had in nineteen ninety nine, got real cash 277 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: lo I look at the cash flow statements of these companies. 278 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: None of the textbooks I studied have that. It's an 279 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: original thing that we're dealing with. 280 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 6: I actually wondered Tom if that ultimately is going to 281 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 6: be the psychological hurdle for people if these stocks actually 282 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 6: begin to weaken at some point down them the line, 283 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 6: they're going to fall too back on. Oh well, at 284 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 6: least they have cash flow. At least they still earn 285 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 6: I agree, And you know that's not dissimilar the nifty 286 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 6: to fifty as they peaked in seventy three, seventy four. 287 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,559 Speaker 6: They had earnings, they had revenue, they had cash flow. 288 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 6: Just what the market was willing to pay for them changed, 289 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 6: and that I think is ultimately the bigger question down 290 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 6: the line. 291 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: Okay, what's your single best idea right now? All the charts. 292 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: You look at Jason Trent and sitting there when Olivia 293 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: in hand, and he says, what's the single best idea? 294 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 2: Chris? 295 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 6: I think these breakouts in the global material charts are 296 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 6: hands down the best thing in our work. I think 297 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 6: the reflection of an improving China. We were early there. 298 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 6: So you're lung copper, I'm long copper, I'm long Chinese equities. 299 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 6: Put my foot on the pedal. 300 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,959 Speaker 1: There, very good Chris outstandings. Tatigez So, I can't say 301 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 1: enough about this, folks. There's two kinds of technical analysis 302 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 1: trend based and stochastic, and Chris Verona and I have 303 00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: sampled the kool aid at the trend based and that's 304 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: the technical analysis driving the ship and truly the New 305 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: City Group. Jason Riquet joins us right now global head 306 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: of Corporate Banking for all of City Group. And this 307 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: after a tour duty including being in Tokyo is early 308 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: is January is well? You have the heritage and pedigree 309 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: of your company. John Reid would say, this is a 310 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: guy we built. What's the New City Group look like 311 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: in corporate banking? 312 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 2: Love the question. I think the short answer is it's 313 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 2: not changed. From that perspective. 314 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 7: We have retained the most important element of our DNA 315 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 7: in this gigantic reorganization, which is our globality, our reach, 316 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 7: our ability to serve multinational companies across the world. 317 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 5: And Jason, I know you did your tour in Japan. 318 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 5: I did my Somber Wilders tour there back in the 319 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 5: very early nineties. Then it fell off the we haven't 320 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 5: talked about Japan for like twenty five years. Why are 321 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 5: we now talking about Japan? 322 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 2: Japan is back. It's fantastic right now. Why is it back? 323 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 6: How is it back? 324 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 7: Well, I think they Japan's been doing the hard yards 325 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 7: for many years. In this long period of deflation of 326 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 7: a sort of a stagged an economy which didn't feel great. 327 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 7: The Japanese companies, the banks, the multinationals were continuing to 328 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 7: press forward with investment, with reshaping the economy, knowing they 329 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 7: had some demographic issues they are going to have to 330 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 7: sort out. The outbound investment from Japan became more and 331 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 7: more fundamental to their sort of overall strategy as a country. 332 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 7: I think what's happened is the world has caught up 333 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 7: and figured it out. I mean, there's some important developments there. 334 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 7: I think one thing that really helped, honestly was in 335 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 7: terms of just bringing attention to Japan and the market, 336 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 7: there was Warren Buffet's investment in the five Trading companies. 337 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 7: It just made people say, what exactly are those companies 338 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 7: and why are they interesting? We've known about them for years, 339 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 7: We've been banks to them for fifteen years. 340 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 5: I know, City you guys have been. I mean, but 341 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 5: it's just amazing. All right, Head of corporate banking at City, 342 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 5: that is it? 343 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: Man? 344 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: Are you are you? 345 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 5: Are you guys making loans? Are your customers do they 346 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 5: need capital, are you guys making loans? 347 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 7: What our customers need is everything. I mean, lending is 348 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 7: an important part of it, and that's what we use 349 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 7: to sort of cement and create the foundation of those relationships. 350 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 7: But what we do as a firm is goes way 351 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 7: beyond that are and what we do in corporate banking 352 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 7: is trying to make sure we deliver the entire firm, 353 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 7: a big global enterprise to them. So they need risk 354 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 7: management tools, they need cash management, they need advisory, they 355 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 7: need access to capital markets, and that's what we want 356 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 7: to make sure that we deliver it wherever they need it, 357 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 7: whatever currency they need, whatever sort of risk exposure they've got. 358 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: I've got to talk to you about the New City Group, 359 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 1: which I just think is so important because those of 360 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 1: us weaned on John Reid and Walter Riston and the rest. 361 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it's a bank that's lost this way. A 362 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: woman from Scotland and the United Kingdom has coming and 363 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: raised raised Hell and Jane Frasier. The New City Group. 364 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: What is its global distinction when on the door of 365 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,360 Speaker 1: the many different kinds of corporate clients you have. 366 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 7: It's not a hard it's not a hard discussion to 367 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 7: have with clients because they know us already, they know 368 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 7: what we do. I think what our clients we're looking 369 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 7: for is to make sure this is the discussion I've 370 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 7: had with lots of them. 371 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 2: How are you different? How are you the same? 372 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 7: And the question is the things we've done have been 373 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 7: very internally focused at making sure we're simpler, we're easier 374 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 7: to operate, and that we've removed some areas of bureaucracy 375 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 7: that are. 376 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: You the boutique of the major banks? Is that what 377 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: this is really kind of. 378 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 2: Not at all, not at all. 379 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 7: In fact, some of the things we do for our 380 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 7: clients are things that no other bank can do. We 381 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,959 Speaker 7: operate in more countries, we have the biggest cash management 382 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 7: network where we're participating in every corner of the capital market. 383 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 7: So not just the easy stuff, not just the G 384 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 7: three currencies, but all the exotics, all the emerging markets. 385 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: So then explain your Saudi Arabian relationship that was fracticed 386 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 1: for years. Explain the New City Group into Saudi Arabia 387 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: or the New City Group into Mexico where retail walked 388 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: away years ago. Explain the strategic corporate banking effort in 389 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: some of these countries. 390 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 7: It's it's it's incredibly important to look at both both 391 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 7: Saudi and the and the rest of the region there 392 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 7: because the capital formation coming out of Saudi, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, 393 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 7: what's happening there is critical because what we see on 394 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 7: these companies, these countries and the companies that exist in 395 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 7: them is an ability to export capital and technology and 396 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 7: know how, we're seeing some of the most important investments 397 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 7: in things like renewable energy coming from that region. So 398 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 7: from our perspective, helping those those companies and those countries 399 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 7: move outside of their home markets is really important. 400 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: Paul, jump in here, but the next time you're in Dubai, 401 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: you need a long conversation with Jumana Pertecci's over there. 402 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 2: Hold love do love to do? 403 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 5: Plugged in there, Jason. I love to get your thoughts 404 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 5: on and city's thoughts on India because a lot of 405 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 5: folks are pitching that to us as everything you knew 406 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 5: about China for the last twenty twenty five years, put 407 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 5: it to India for the next twenty to twenty five years, 408 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 5: maybe even with obviously a more friendly government. How do 409 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 5: you guys think about it? 410 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 6: You've been there, since I. 411 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 2: Try not to be overly bullish. 412 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 7: I'm a guy who lends money, and so I have 413 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,439 Speaker 7: to be balanced and how I think about it. But 414 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 7: I was there about a month ago. I go to 415 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 7: India once or twice a year, and I've been doing 416 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 7: that for over ten years. I've never seen a more 417 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,120 Speaker 7: constructive investment environment that I've seen in this past year 418 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 7: in India. What's happening there is extraordinary. There's going to 419 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 7: be a massive supercycle I think coming out of if 420 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 7: this election wraps up. It doesn't seem like it's going 421 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 7: to be very dramatic in terms of the outcome. We 422 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 7: all kind of know Prime Minister. 423 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 2: Motor will continue what he's planning to do. 424 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 7: In terms of investment in this country to make it 425 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 7: competitive and get to his twenty forty seven goal of 426 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 7: becoming a developed country. 427 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: Is incredible. 428 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 7: That five hundred gigawatts of new power, a rail system, 429 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 7: of roads system airports that can't be beat. You're feeling 430 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 7: it already my last trip there. New tunnels, new roads, 431 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 7: shovel ready projects that are starting to kick off. 432 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 2: It's really interesting, well risked. 433 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: In one oh one call on the Utilities of America, 434 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: they're having a renaissance now because got to build out 435 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 1: for AI. What do you see there granular From a 436 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: granular standpoint, what does your team see of investment in 437 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: electricity in America? 438 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 7: That's so that's the critical thing AI. Also the support 439 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 7: for you know, renewable fuels and and and synthetic fuels, 440 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 7: all of that plus the evy kind of revolution. The 441 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 7: amount of power that we're all going to need, not 442 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 7: just the US but globally is extraordinary. I I think 443 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 7: we have to take it all of the above approach 444 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 7: to this. What's going to happen is, you know, we're 445 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 7: gonna we're going to continue to push. 446 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 2: All of the renewable options. 447 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 7: But given what we think is happening at AI and 448 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 7: the requirement for data centers, it's it's going to go 449 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 7: way beyond that. We need to make sure. My view 450 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 7: is it's going to require nuclear. It's going to require 451 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 7: and there's going to be a significant period of transition 452 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 7: where we're going to continue to use things like gas 453 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 7: fired power to get get to those levels. Because the 454 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,679 Speaker 7: what we're seeing in the US right very specifically, but 455 00:20:55,800 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 7: also everywhere else India, Brazil, China, I mean, the everybody's 456 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 7: gonna be building out MASSI. 457 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: Data the French loadonness John Michaelswaye with McCrow very quickly. 458 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 1: Here you're saying we're going to see a nuclear energy 459 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 1: build out across America like what France owns. 460 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 7: I don't think it'll be quite as I don't think 461 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,479 Speaker 7: nuclear will be a big a part of the solution 462 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:16,959 Speaker 7: for the US. But there's gonna be more than I've 463 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 7: had before. But France has gone sort of all in. 464 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 7: That's that's gonna be there there long term sas. 465 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: Okay, thank you so much. With City Group head of 466 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: all over your court. 467 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 2: Thank you wors based in New York. Worst elevators in 468 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 2: global Can you do. 469 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,719 Speaker 1: An infrastructure investment an the elevators? Jason, thank you got it. 470 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. 471 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 2: You daily look at the front pages around the world. 472 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 1: It's highlighted my weekend Mother's Day. I couldn't tap it 473 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 1: head to toe in Nick's. 474 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 6: Merch I did. 475 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 8: I got the Brentson jersey, I had the Knicks hat. Yeah, 476 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 8: I got hooked up from other's day. Of course, I 477 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 8: really wanted to throw it off when I was watching 478 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 8: the game. 479 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 5: But that's okay, he. 480 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: Said, well, I'm trying to get from Paul to the 481 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 1: next game. He's got thy Okay. 482 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 8: This one came from Lucashaw's newsletter always go to that. Yes, 483 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 8: really good. He's he's talking about how Netflix, Amazon, and 484 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 8: Apple they want to change the way they pay Hollywood talent. 485 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 8: So what he's saying is that Apple has to begin 486 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 8: basing pay on how the series or movies perform. So, 487 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 8: for example, talent received bonuses based on three things. A 488 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 8: number of people who signed up for Apple TV plus 489 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 8: to watch, how much time they spend viewing, and the 490 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 8: cost of the program relative to the size of its audience. 491 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 8: So this is something different. It's a Netflix, Amazon, they're 492 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 8: also considering performance based compensation, but it's something different As 493 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 8: to how. 494 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: I read every word thinking of Paul Sweeney, Lisa and 495 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: Paul to me, and the back end of lucas Shaw's 496 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: brilliant note is okay, show us the data and they 497 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 1: just they they think they have a rule book different 498 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 1: than the days where we knew guns smoke was number one. 499 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,239 Speaker 5: Exactly right, You're exactly right, Tom, So uh, you know 500 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 5: that I suspect the talent and more importantly, their their agents. 501 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 5: We're like, okay, that's fine, but show us, show us 502 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 5: the data. We don't mind getting the back end, you know, 503 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 5: and as supposed. 504 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 1: To Shogun does well and something else doesn't do as well, 505 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 1: but you gotta show the data. 506 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 5: But again, kind of Amazon, Apple, Netflix, they're the ones 507 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 5: that have the money. 508 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 6: They have the checkbooks. These days, they drive next. 509 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 8: Yes, okay. So along similar lines, we've been talking a 510 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 8: lot of TV advertising, how it's been going down, but 511 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 8: a lot of brands moving away from TV advertising. They're 512 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 8: moving to Google, Meta, TikTok to reach these new audiences. 513 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,959 Speaker 8: Here's an example. Mandalis they wanted to promote this limited 514 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 8: edition Oreo cookie, so they didn't spend a dime on 515 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 8: TV advertising. Where they went. They went to Instagram, they 516 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 8: went to TikTok, they went to the websites of large 517 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 8: retailers like Amazon and Walmart. So you're seeing the shift 518 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 8: because the people they're trying to reach, the gen z ors, 519 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 8: multiculture Audi It says there aren't watching enough TV. 520 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 6: And so this is May. 521 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,160 Speaker 5: Tom May is a time for the upfronts, which we've 522 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 5: been done since the beginning of time for television, where 523 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 5: the TV networks sell maybe eighty percent of their next 524 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 5: year's advertising inventory today in May, and for a discount. 525 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:16,679 Speaker 6: Does that even matter anymore? 526 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 5: Our brand's even spending on broadcasting cable television. And here's 527 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 5: here's the data from the Wall Street Journal story. The 528 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 5: maker of Rich Crackers and Sour Patch Kids candy is 529 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 5: spending about fifteen percent of its US AD budget on 530 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 5: TV this year, down from forty two percent. 531 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: Three years ago. And what's important here? Did youday have this? 532 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 1: I read it cover to cover. Now learning about YouTube 533 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: and what we're doing on Bloomberg Surveillance and Lisa, they 534 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: have great legitimate math that on Instagram, most people look 535 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: at the still photos. They don't look at the reels 536 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: and the mass like six to one, it's huge. Where 537 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: people the reels okay, cute, great, nobody cares. They look 538 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 1: at still photos for messaging. 539 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,199 Speaker 8: It's interest because it used to be the opposite. So 540 00:24:59,280 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 8: that's interesting. 541 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 1: A little shit there next. 542 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 8: Okay, we've been talking about inflation data, right PPI CPI, 543 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,120 Speaker 8: But apparently chicken sales that's what people are looking for 544 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:13,120 Speaker 8: for the new inflation gauge. Okay, because shoppers trade down 545 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 8: to chicken from pricier meat cuts. When the food prices 546 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 8: are high, so that's what they're seeing that shift, So 547 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 8: diners are buying more chicken wings at fast food places, 548 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 8: frozen tenders at grocery stores. You had Tyson Food. They're 549 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 8: bringing in higher profits from poultry instead of their other meats. 550 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 8: Restaurants pushing chicken options, so you start to see that 551 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 8: cheaper chicken prices, though not likely to stay for long, 552 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 8: of course, because wholesale prices they're rising the man's sticking up. 553 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,679 Speaker 8: Supplies are starting to thin out, but looking to chicken. 554 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 5: A dwindling supply of cattle in the US means meat 555 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 5: packers like Tyson are paying more to secure their lives, 556 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 5: like where are the cows going? 557 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:50,880 Speaker 6: What's the big thing? 558 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 2: Go open? 559 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 1: Sess got a beautiful exercise on this, I'm going to 560 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: say fifteen twenty years ago, and you know it links 561 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 1: chicken beef rather with pork, with chickens, and the dynamics 562 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 1: are very sophisticated about chicken. Should we raise more cows 563 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: or not? And went somewhere in the rest of the country, 564 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 1: it's like, what do we do with the pigs? And 565 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: then what do we do with the good park chickens? 566 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 1: Way more chicken at home. 567 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 6: I ate more chicken. I know that's cheaper, not just 568 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 6: you can't eat beef. No, you can't chicken. You can 569 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 6: eat more frequent right, I mean you're the health expert. 570 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: Yes. 571 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 8: And turkey, ground turkey. 572 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 5: Okay, I. 573 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 1: Won't come on. 574 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 8: You gotta switch to the ground turkey because I don't 575 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:34,919 Speaker 8: want to hear about. 576 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 6: Okay. 577 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 8: My favorite story is today Costco becoming the hot spot 578 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 8: for adult birthday parties. Okay, it's blowing up on TikTok, 579 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 8: and here's how it works. 580 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,080 Speaker 6: My husband is listening to this. 581 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 8: But the unsuspecting birthday person, all right, they start seeing 582 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 8: them random friends, relatives throughout the stores are shopping and 583 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 8: they're like, oh, it's a coincidence. How nice everyone's here today. 584 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 8: And then all of a sudden, when they're done checking out, 585 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 8: they go to the food court at the end and 586 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 8: there everybody is surprise, surprise, They sing happy birthday. It 587 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 8: becomes this whole party. But one person said it's because 588 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 8: it's a cheaper alternative. 589 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 5: Okay. 590 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 8: She spent just thirty dollars and eighty eight cents on 591 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 8: her birthday dinner for seven people because they bought hot 592 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 8: dogs and soda combos. Okay, that's what it's coming up to. 593 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 8: They were Costco hoodies got into all the you know, 594 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 8: the the birthday celebrations. So it's it's cheaper. I mean 595 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 8: unless you go into Costco shoppings for you like me, 596 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,880 Speaker 8: and you spend five hundred bucks and it's not really cheaper. 597 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 5: But so this party was hosted at the Fort Oglethorpe 598 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 5: Costco warehouse in Wringled, Georgia. 599 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 6: Pretty cool. Yeah, so I mean, is it the hot dog? 600 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 6: Is that the thing? 601 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 8: It's the hot dog soda combo. It's like two bucks 602 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 8: or something. 603 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 5: People love Costco. 604 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,120 Speaker 8: I know my mother goes to Costco for two things, 605 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:56,199 Speaker 8: the hot dog and vodka. 606 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 6: And on the vodka. 607 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 8: Say that, mom, So then you have the hot dog 608 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 8: and the vodka. 609 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 6: That's what she goes. 610 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 4: That's it. 611 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 8: But you have to have a membership to attend the party. 612 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,439 Speaker 8: That's the other thing. How they kind of I'm not 613 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 8: a member of Yeah, so you're not a member. You 614 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,920 Speaker 8: can't go to the party member. You have to be remember, 615 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,160 Speaker 8: I just go costco dot com. 616 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, all right, okay, Lisa, thank you so much 617 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 1: ending on Costco. Can we get you know, can we large. 618 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: You know that we're going to Costco. This is coming weekend. Sure, 619 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: see Alisa Matteo SURDAYE get the food over there. 620 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,640 Speaker 6: Where's where's our Costco? Lisa? Where do we go? Costco? 621 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 8: I go to the one. There's one in North Plainfield, 622 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 8: there's one in Union, there's one in Yeah, New Jersey, 623 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,360 Speaker 8: and there's not one in one in Brooklyn. 624 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 6: Actually there's one. Okay, you can go to Brooklyn. 625 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate this. 626 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 3: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 627 00:28:55,600 --> 00:29:00,040 Speaker 3: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can and 628 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 3: can also watch the show live on YouTube. 629 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg. 630 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 3: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings 631 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 3: from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters 632 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:15,719 Speaker 3: in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 633 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 3: or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio, 634 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.