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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 4: Welcome back to Balance of Power Live from Washington and

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Speaker 4: New York today on Bloomberg TV and Radio and a

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Speaker 4: red headline just crossing the Bloomberg Terminal. The US has

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Speaker 4: told allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or

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Speaker 4: a mock warhead into space as early as this year,

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Speaker 4: so potentially in twenty twenty four. Quite the news to see, Joe,

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Speaker 4: especially in light of remarks we got from Russian President

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Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin earlier today where he denied US allegations that

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Speaker 4: he's planning to deploy a nuclear weapon in space. He

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Speaker 4: says he's always been categor categorically against it and are

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Speaker 4: now against the deployment of such things, and that the

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Speaker 4: US is saying though, that they could do just that

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Speaker 4: as early as this year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the always credible vatim er Putin weighing in, Kaylee,

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Speaker 5: if this is true, a nuclear warhead in orbit, which

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Speaker 5: is apparently what we're talking about, would violate the nineteen

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Speaker 5: sixty seven Outer Space Treaty. That is so sixties that

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Speaker 5: we called it the outer Space Treaty to which Russia

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Speaker 5: is a signatory here, so this all goes back to

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Speaker 5: that statement. Remember with Mike Turner, the Chair of the

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Speaker 5: Intelligence Committee last week, we had no idea what he

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Speaker 5: was talking about, and you wonder if this would be

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Speaker 5: public if he hadn't done that.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's an excellent question. Of course, the call from

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Speaker 4: the Chair of the Intelligence Committee was for the White

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Speaker 4: House to declassify information related to an unspecified threat. Of course,

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Speaker 4: that forced the White House to get a little bit

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Speaker 4: more specific about what the threat really is, and we

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Speaker 4: know that this technology theoretically is supposed to be an

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Speaker 4: anti satellite weapon, something that could be disruptive to all

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Speaker 4: of the thousands of that are up there orbiting in

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Speaker 4: outer space. As you say, Joe, but really just fascinating

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Speaker 4: to see this story unfold. We weren't talking about this

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Speaker 4: at all until about a week ago. So for more

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Speaker 4: on this story, now, let's bring in Larry Liebert. He

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Speaker 4: is an editor on our National Security Team and is

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Speaker 4: joining us on the phone, So Larry, realistically, we could

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Speaker 4: be dealing with a pretty short timeline here. Even though

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Speaker 4: President of Russia Vladimir Putin earlier today says he does

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Speaker 4: not want to use a weapon like this.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, he said Russia is categorically against it. But you

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Speaker 6: know he also has been saber rattling someone on his

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Speaker 6: nuclear arsenal during the Ukraine War. So not everybody takes

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Speaker 6: his assurance as encouraging. Our reporters, Albert Others, Deli, Jeffer Jacobs,

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Speaker 6: Katrina Manson broke the story that the US has told

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Speaker 6: the allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or

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Speaker 6: a mock warhead which would at least cause as much

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Speaker 6: confusion into space during this year. That's a timeline that

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Speaker 6: hasn't been reported before. And the question is that there's

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Speaker 6: been much confusion about this. Is everybody, including present body,

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Speaker 6: and they said, this isn't a new grow weapony in

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Speaker 6: space that would be shot at people on Earth. It

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Speaker 6: could though if it's up there, it's up there as

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Speaker 6: soon as this year, as it's for real, and Russia

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Speaker 6: chose to use it, could knock out satellite communications of

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Speaker 6: all sorts. It would be catastrophe because there are so

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Speaker 6: many satellites we all depend on, even GPS.

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Speaker 5: That's for sure. And Larry makes such a great point.

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Speaker 5: We could be talking about a phony warhead for all

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Speaker 5: we know. There's so much noise and misinformation coming out

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Speaker 5: of Moscow that it's hard to really be specific about

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Speaker 5: what we're talking about here, Kaylee. But Larry, this will

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Speaker 5: be a big deal when the G seven Foreign ministers

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Speaker 5: meet in Italy in April. This will be top of

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Speaker 5: the agenda, won't it.

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Speaker 6: Oh well, I think so. I think it's going to

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Speaker 6: hover over all the bates, including debates over Russia's attentions

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Speaker 6: in the Ukraine War, the questions about the EU and

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Speaker 6: US support for NATO, all of these things tied together.

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Speaker 6: Of course. I would say some conservative Republicans in Congress

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Speaker 6: has said perhaps that there's some scare mongering going on

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Speaker 6: here to have yet another dimension of reasons not to

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Speaker 6: trust and to act against Russia. But it's certainly going

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Speaker 6: to be an issue at front of mine.

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Speaker 4: Well, Larry, you mentioned the question around the future of

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Speaker 4: US support for Ukraine, whether or not Congress is actually

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Speaker 4: going to pass billions of dollars in additional aid Joe

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Speaker 4: and I were speaking with former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

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Speaker 4: just last week, who essentially told us, if Congress doesn't

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Speaker 4: do that, President Biden needs to be looking at every

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Speaker 4: possible option to continue aiding Ukraine. What real options are there.

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Speaker 4: If it's not, that's Congress.

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Speaker 6: It's a real good quest. Then Understandably, our sources and

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Speaker 6: those of other folks at the Pentagon and in the

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Speaker 6: White House aren't eager to spell out any last gas

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Speaker 6: or desperate measures they could take. You know, there's been

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Speaker 6: talk of US allies in Europe paying to buy and

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Speaker 6: then replace weapons from the US Arsenal, which would really

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Speaker 6: put the US into a bigger position. They could continue

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Speaker 6: to send certain weapons from US doock piles, but with

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Speaker 6: no guarantee to replace them. It really raises questions about

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Speaker 6: the US readiness in Asia, for Taiwan and elsewhere. And

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Speaker 6: so they really are holding firm and they even if

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Speaker 6: they developed some workarounds, the situation is urgent from the

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Speaker 6: perspective of Ukraine, and there's no way to do billions

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Speaker 6: of dollars in weapons without Congress acting.

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Speaker 4: All right, Bloomberg's Larry Liebert, thank you so much for

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Speaker 4: joining us on the breaking news that crossed this hour.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we add another one here, and just the ridiculous

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Speaker 5: number of stories that we're following only four days out

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Speaker 5: from South Carolina. Arguably the top political story today, Kyley,

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Speaker 5: But it's pretty hard to make those calls on a

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Speaker 5: daily basis lately with so much noise. This is huge

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Speaker 5: though for Nicki Haley, it's huge for Donald Trump. And

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Speaker 5: we have new numbers today, in fact, a couple of

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Speaker 5: polls and one specifically we're looking at from Suffolk University,

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Speaker 5: USA today, who were just absolutely great in Iowa and

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Speaker 5: New Hampshire. That's of course polstered David Paleologos, who we

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Speaker 5: want to talk to here. Donald Trump leading Nicki Haley

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Speaker 5: in her home state by almost two to one. It's

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Speaker 5: sixty three percent to thirty five percent. Remarkable numbers for

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Speaker 5: this stage of the campaign. And we do turn to

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Speaker 5: David Paleologo. He is the director of the Suffolk University

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Speaker 5: Political Research Center. David, this is shut down. Your poll

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Speaker 5: agrees with a lot of other polls that we've seen

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Speaker 5: in the last couple of weeks where Nikki Haley couldn't

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Speaker 5: possibly win her home state.

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Speaker 7: How bad is this going to look?

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Speaker 8: Well, we never say impossible, as you know, we say

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Speaker 8: highly improbable. But it doesn't look good at all. I mean,

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Speaker 8: this is just awful for her inner home state, two

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Speaker 8: term former governor of South Carolina, you know, worse than

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Speaker 8: Iowa for her, worse than New Hampshire. And if these

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Speaker 8: if this margin holds up, I mean there's some polls

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Speaker 8: out there that have it twenty twenty two. Others have

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Speaker 8: it in the thirties. I think the twenty eight number

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Speaker 8: is pretty close. We'll see what happens on election day.

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Speaker 8: But again, and you know, South Carolina, like New Hampshire,

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Speaker 8: anybody can vote, so obviously, Nicki Haley is winning big

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Speaker 8: among Democrats provided they didn't vote the Democratic primary, and

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Speaker 8: winning comfortably among dependents, but getting crushed among those who matter,

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Speaker 8: which are registered voters who see themselves as Republicans.

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Speaker 4: Well, and then when you break down the demographics within

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Speaker 4: that group of voters, David, it doesn't look like she's

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Speaker 4: winning any of them. Former President Trump holds double digit

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Speaker 4: advantages among men and women in every age group, among

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Speaker 4: both high school graduates and those with a college degree,

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Speaker 4: So there is no demographic within the Republican Party that

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Speaker 4: Haley is winning outright, right.

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Speaker 8: Well, there's two that she's winning. I would say one,

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Speaker 8: she's winning within the margin of era, but there are two.

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Speaker 8: One is those people are political ideology moderate to liberal.

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Speaker 8: She's winning a by about twenty points fifty nine thirty

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Speaker 8: eight among that particular group. And also she's winning comfortably

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Speaker 8: by more than that among people who say that the

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Speaker 8: future of American democracy is the top issue. Now, future

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Speaker 8: American democracy was not number win issue, was the number

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Speaker 8: three issue. So that doesn't get her very far as

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Speaker 8: the number three the issue. And Trump was winning by

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Speaker 8: over fifty points among people who said immigration was the

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Speaker 8: most important issue, that was the top issue. And secondly,

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Speaker 8: he was winning by almost thirty five points among second

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Speaker 8: most important issue, which is the economy. So very little

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Speaker 8: wiggle room, if you will. She needs a massive influx

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Speaker 8: of moderates, liberals Democrats to storm the polls on Saturday.

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Speaker 8: But again, from what we can see in terms of

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Speaker 8: who made it through the screen about being either a

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Speaker 8: very likely voter on Saturday or somebody who had already voted,

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Speaker 8: you know, PROMP is poised for a big win.

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Speaker 5: David Nikki Haley delivered a state of the race speech

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Speaker 5: today in Greenville, and she opened it by announcing that

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Speaker 5: she was not dropping out, and which would really give

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Speaker 5: you a sense of where we are. But she said

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Speaker 5: more than that. Listened to Nikki Haley from earlier today.

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Speaker 9: Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly

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Speaker 9: embrace Trump privately dread him. They know what a disaster

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Speaker 9: he's been and will continue to be for our party.

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Speaker 9: They're just too afraid to say it out loud. Well,

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Speaker 9: I'm not afraid to say the hard truth out loud.

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Speaker 5: Would have made a difference, David Paleologos if she said

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Speaker 5: the hard truth's out loud earlier and is she arguably

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Speaker 5: doing damage to her brand now knowing that she needs

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Speaker 5: to convince Trump voters if she's going to get anywhere.

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Speaker 8: You know, I don't usually do a lot of commentary

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Speaker 8: on races like this, but I really do agree with you.

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Speaker 8: I don't understand it. I think if she had got

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Speaker 8: out endorsed him today wholeheartedly, I think she could maybe

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Speaker 8: make the case that she helped deliver a big win

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Speaker 8: for Trump in her home state of South Carolina, in

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Speaker 8: potentially setting herself up for a Bible twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 8: run or twenty thirty two run. But this just seems

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Speaker 8: just so ill prepared and hopeless to me if you're

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Speaker 8: not showing up in those early primaries and caucuses in

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Speaker 8: any way, it's like my class. You have to show

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Speaker 8: up in my class and participate to get points four

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Speaker 8: points every class. The student doesn't show up those first

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Speaker 8: four classes, they're already down sixteen points to the other

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Speaker 8: students who have to. And so then how does that

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Speaker 8: student justify getting an A in the class? You know,

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Speaker 8: no matter how much extra credit they do, no matter

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Speaker 8: how well they ace these other metrics in my class.

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Speaker 8: And there's no way that she's going to ace any

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Speaker 8: states if she can't win her home state. I mean,

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Speaker 8: Michigan comes three days later. You know you have got

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Speaker 8: the primary and then the Michigan caucus because they you know,

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Speaker 8: they have that split up, and you've got other races.

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Speaker 8: And on Super Tuesday, even in Massachusetts, I thought she

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Speaker 8: had a chance in Massachusetts to potentially pull an upset,

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Speaker 8: and she's double digit. She's down in Massachusetts even with

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Speaker 8: sixty percent Independence and Tempest are Republicans.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, have a tough picture, but we always appreciate you

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Speaker 4: joining us. David Pelielogus, Suffolk University Political Research Center Director,

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Speaker 4: thank you for your time, and as he talks about

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Speaker 4: attendance in his class, it also raises the turnout question, Joe,

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Speaker 4: how many people are going to show up and actually

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Speaker 4: cast a vote in the primary when his poll shows

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Speaker 4: that more voters are more enthusiastic to cast a ballot

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Speaker 4: for Trump.

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Speaker 5: I think I would have failed David's class. I think

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Speaker 5: I would have gotten out to vote. Okayley, this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at Nooney's, turned on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: royd Otto with.

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Speaker 3: A Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 5: Thirty, Pick your poll. They tell the same story. Today

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Speaker 5: Emerson's out with numbers from the Hill, Suffolk is out

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Speaker 5: with numbers. They ran with USA today, we saw Winthrop.

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Speaker 5: We've been through a couple of these in South Carolina, Cayley.

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Speaker 5: They all tell the same story.

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Speaker 4: Which is that Nicki Haley is going to lose, at

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Speaker 4: least if the polls are correct, pretty badly to Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump four days from now in the South Carolina primary.

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Speaker 4: That said, Nicki Haley says the outcome doesn't matter. She's

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Speaker 4: sticking around for the time being. And also, interestingly, Joe,

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Speaker 4: as we hear her sharpening her criticism of Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: the front runner, as we have gotten further into this

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Speaker 4: primary cycle, she also says that essentially right now, she's

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Speaker 4: just saying the quiet part loudly. Listen to some of

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Speaker 4: what she said in her state of the race speech

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Speaker 4: in South Carolina earlier today.

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Speaker 9: Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly

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Speaker 9: embraced Trump privately dread him. They know what a disaster

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Speaker 9: he's been and will continue to be for our party.

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Speaker 9: They're just too afraid to say it out loud. Well,

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Speaker 9: I'm not afraid to say the hard truth out loud.

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Speaker 4: So joining us now for more on this here with

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Speaker 4: me in our Washington, d C studio as Bloomberg National

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Speaker 4: politics reporter Nancy Cook. So, Nancy, it's worth pointing out

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Speaker 4: here that Nikki Haley hasn't essentially been saying this out

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Speaker 4: loud for the entirety of this race. It's pretty new

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Speaker 4: in fact, that she's saying some of these things about

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Speaker 4: the former president. Is it too little, too late for her?

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Speaker 10: I mean kind of yes. I mean she really has

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Speaker 10: decided to thank Traumond directly. Really just in the last

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Speaker 10: month or so before that she was very cautious, and

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Speaker 10: this fall we saw that she was very cautious. I

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Speaker 10: think at this point she is just trying to set

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Speaker 10: up a contrast between her and the former president. And

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Speaker 10: I think that, honestly, what we're seeing here is her

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Speaker 10: playing a much longer game about you know, if there

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Speaker 10: is some sort of healthcare or the former presidents legal

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Speaker 10: troubles catch up with him, she will be the alternative.

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Speaker 10: But we are really expecting him at this point to

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Speaker 10: clinch the nomination, probably by the third week of March.

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Speaker 5: Hey, Nancy, it's good to see you. I wonder when

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Speaker 5: we talk about the psychological impact, if it's just impossible

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Speaker 5: to know what that will be following South Carolina this weekend, because,

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Speaker 5: as we've been discussing for days and weeks now, the

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Speaker 5: conventional wisdom is Nicki Haley just kind of hangs out

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Speaker 5: for the spring in summer and waits to see if

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Speaker 5: something goes wrong with the Trump campaign. But what about

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty eight, What about her future career if it

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Speaker 5: doesn't work out in this campaign, there's a loss that bad,

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Speaker 5: A thirty point loss in your home state keep you

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Speaker 5: from doing other things in the future based on the

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Speaker 5: message that you're sending the embarrassment that comes with it.

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Speaker 10: Not at all. I think that that will be a

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Speaker 10: big part of what she'll do. I think that she will,

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Speaker 10: you know, is really positioning herself to run in twenty

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Speaker 10: twenty eight. She will have been the last Republican standing

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Speaker 10: against Donald Trump. And you have to remember that if

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Speaker 10: Trump loses to Biden in the general election, which is

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Speaker 10: months away, Nikki Hilly can say I told you so.

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Speaker 10: You know, she's also in her early fifties. She's so

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Speaker 10: much younger than Trump and Biden, and I think that

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Speaker 10: she has like a long political life left in her.

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Speaker 10: So I think part of this is also positioning for

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Speaker 10: twenty twenty eight. I think Governor Ronda Santas of Florida

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Speaker 10: is doing the same thing. He just announced he's going

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Speaker 10: to be in South Carolina tomorrow. So I think that,

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Speaker 10: you know, everybody who dropped out is really trying to say, hey,

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Speaker 10: hold on, I'll be there in four years.

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Speaker 4: Well, of course, Fernicki Haley as well. We have to

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Speaker 4: consider that she does have the resources to keep this

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Speaker 4: up for a while. She's continued to pull in money

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Speaker 4: from donors. When she was speaking in South Carolina earlier,

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Speaker 4: I was watching some of her remarks, it was notable

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Speaker 4: she actually got choked up when talking about her husband, Michael,

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Speaker 4: who is currently deployed to Africa, her second deployment. She

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Speaker 4: says she was speaking about how hard it is on

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Speaker 4: them as a military family when Donald Trump has effectively

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Speaker 4: questioned where her husband is at times. She says it's

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Speaker 4: disrespectful of military members and military families. Given South Carolina

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Speaker 4: is a pretty military heavy state. Are we expecting that

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Speaker 4: to have an impact come primary day?

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Speaker 10: I think it could have an impact. I mean just

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Speaker 10: with people who don't already like Trump. I think Trump

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Speaker 10: is going to hold on to that thirty percent base

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Speaker 10: of the Republican Party who really likes him no matter what.

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Speaker 10: But I think that there is an opportunity for Nikki

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Speaker 10: Haley to pick off voters who are college educated in

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Speaker 10: some of these wealthier areas of South Carolina. And so

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Speaker 10: that's what I will be looking for, not just like

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Speaker 10: what is the margin between those two with the primary,

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Speaker 10: but also what types of voters does she end up

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Speaker 10: appealing to in South Carolina.

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Speaker 5: Hey, Nancy, We're going to talk later on this hour

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Speaker 5: with our political panel about Joe Biden's fundraising prowess. He's

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Speaker 5: on his way to a week on the West coast

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Speaker 5: raising money in California, but ahead of the deadline, he's

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Speaker 5: reporting forty two million dollars for the campaign and the DNC.

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Speaker 5: He ends January with one hundred and thirty million dollars

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Speaker 5: in the bank for his re election effort. Joe Biden

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Speaker 5: is winning the fundraising wars here is he not?

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Speaker 8: He is?

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Speaker 10: And I talked to a bunch of donors after that

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Speaker 10: Special Council report that raised questions about his age, and

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Speaker 10: a bunch of Democratic donors said, look, you know, we

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Speaker 10: think that he has been a good president and as

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Speaker 10: long as Trump is on the ticket, we will keep

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Speaker 10: funding Biden. It's not so much like a gift to

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Speaker 10: Biden or a full vote of confidence in himself as

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Speaker 10: it is a donation to just an anti Trump coalition.

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Speaker 10: These Democratic donors do not want Trump to be president again,

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Speaker 10: and they were they are willing to keep, you know,

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Speaker 10: funding Biden's bid because they're just freaked out by that.

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Speaker 10: And we've seen he's had a lot of success with

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Speaker 10: fundraising in New York, on the West Coast, in Florida.

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Speaker 10: You know, fundraising has not been a problem for the

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Speaker 10: Biden campaign.

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Speaker 5: Well, that's for sure, and we're going to hear about

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Speaker 5: the others coming up in short order, whether it's the

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Speaker 5: Trump campaign or the party's Nancy Cook. Great to see you,

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Speaker 5: great reporting as always, Bloomberg Senior national political correspondent. Find

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Speaker 5: Nancy on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. Kayleie,

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Speaker 5: This of course is a huge story going into South Carolina.

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Speaker 5: But immediately after that, we're going to turn our focus

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Speaker 5: to Super Tuesday. And here in Washington, there's still a

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Speaker 5: conversation about geopolitics, about funding our allies abroad that has

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Speaker 5: yet to be resolved. In fact, it's very much up

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Speaker 5: in the air after lawmakers went home for two weeks

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Speaker 5: without crafting a budget, without passing aid for Ukraine, Israel,

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Speaker 5: or Taiwan.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, and Joe, that is something that the current incumbent President,

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden, is keenly aware of. He's putting a lot

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Speaker 4: of pressure on Congress in recent days, especially in light

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Speaker 4: of the developments of recent days, to pass Ukraine ad

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Speaker 4: that aid that he essentially says is badly needed. Just

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Speaker 4: take a listen to the president over the weekend.

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Speaker 3: Mistake not respond. Look the way they're walking away from

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Speaker 3: the thread of.

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Speaker 11: Russia, the way they're walking away from NATO, the way

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Speaker 11: they're walking away from being our operatation.

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Speaker 3: He the discs of shocking.

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Speaker 11: I've been for a while, I've.

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Speaker 5: Never seen any like this president as he was leaving

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Speaker 5: the White House, as Kayleie mentioned over the weekend, we've

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Speaker 5: heard this line from him a couple of times, calling

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Speaker 5: it bizarre that they would leave town. Remember his news

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Speaker 5: conference at the end of last week. We had the

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Speaker 5: voice now of Jim Gilmour, the former governor of Virginia

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Speaker 5: is with us, former ambassador to the Organization for Security

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Speaker 5: and Cooperation in Europe and former chair of the r NC. Governor,

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Speaker 5: it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. What's

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Speaker 5: going to happen when lawmakers come back to town and have

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Speaker 5: already spent a couple of weeks at home hearing from

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Speaker 5: voters on this watching headlines from Ukraine as areas fall

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Speaker 5: to the Russians. Will there be a different feel in

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Speaker 5: the air.

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Speaker 12: Well, I don't know, but I know there should be.

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Speaker 11: I think it's apt the urgent that the Ukraine financing pass.

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Speaker 11: All the false narratives that have been out there about

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Speaker 11: how we have to look out to our border and

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Speaker 11: we can't look after the Ukrainian border, these are all

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Speaker 11: false messages. Some of them are being created by the

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Speaker 11: Russians in order to try to work on the minds

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Speaker 11: of the American people and to destroy our resolve. It's

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Speaker 11: absolutely essential that this Ukrainian support passed. And I might

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Speaker 11: say to you, Joe, that this is a failure of

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Speaker 11: national leadership everywhere. We're not seeing the national leadership anywhere

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Speaker 11: to completely explain to the American people the truth and

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Speaker 11: how absolutely vital this war in Ukraine is to the

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Speaker 11: safety of the United States of America. We're not seeing

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Speaker 11: it out of the Congress, we're not seeing it out

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Speaker 11: of the Senate, we're not seeing it out.

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Speaker 12: Of the Presidency. This has to happen.

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Speaker 11: It has to happen, and there has to be an

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Speaker 11: explanation as to why. And you have to explose some

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Speaker 11: of these false rumors and myths that are being put

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Speaker 11: out there to try to destroy American resolveleadership.

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Speaker 4: Well, you say that Russia maybe behind some of these

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Speaker 4: rumors and myths, but are they not being propagated by

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Speaker 4: certain Republicans, including the Republican front runner for the presidency,

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump, who has the ear of Speaker Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 11: Well, I can say this, when I was the ambassador

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Speaker 11: in Vienna on behalf of the United States in the

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Speaker 11: Trump administration, Nobody in the Trump administration ever told me to.

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Speaker 12: Let up on the Russians. And I don't.

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Speaker 11: Foresee that when President Trump is reelected again that he's

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Speaker 11: going to back away from NATO or back away from

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Speaker 11: anybody else. I think American leadership was stronger then than

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Speaker 11: it is now. But Kaylee, I want to repeat my message.

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Speaker 11: We're seeing a failure of leadership everywhere by everybody. The

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Speaker 11: American people are entitled to know the truth, and the

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Speaker 11: truth is that this is vitally important to America's safety

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Speaker 11: and national security for the future.

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Speaker 5: Well, let's get to what else should be done here, then.

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Speaker 5: Governor Joe Biden has delivered a couple of speech is

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Speaker 5: one of them in prime time from the Oval Office

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Speaker 5: to speak to the dangers around the world, the risks

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Speaker 5: that we face, and the need to help to fund

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Speaker 5: our allies, whether it be in Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan.

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Speaker 5: We understand that there's a very different conversation that's been

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Speaker 5: having in the House of Representatives. We even heard Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump say a couple of weekends ago that he would

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Speaker 5: let Russia and his words, do whatever the hell it

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Speaker 5: wants to our allies who don't meet spending goals in NATO,

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Speaker 5: this does seem to be two different conversations.

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Speaker 11: Now, oh yeah, Look, I think that what the President

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Speaker 11: Trump is doing is putting pressure on the NATO allies

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Speaker 11: to step up to the plate. My report to you

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Speaker 11: is the truth, though, which is they are stepping up

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Speaker 11: to the plate, and largely because our President Trump's pressure

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Speaker 11: when he was president, and I think these statements that

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Speaker 11: he's making now are intended to do that. But the

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Speaker 11: key point is that American leadership is necessary, and we

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Speaker 11: do lead, and people look to us for leadership and

437
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 11: it has to happen. But right now I think we're

438
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 11: not seeing the proper messaging out of Washington by anybody.

439
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 4: Well, and that messaging or lack thereof, certainly is noticed

440
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 4: received by our allies. Of course, we saw the Munich

441
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 4: Security Conference happening in recent days where a lot of

442
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 4: American allies expressed concern about the direction of the conversation here. Domestically,

443
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 4: what it could mean for the future of alliance, is

444
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 4: the future of US participation and support for allies in Europe.

445
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 4: What should they be thinking of the United States at

446
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 4: this moment? Are there concerns not founded in real threat?

447
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 11: Listen, the real threat is certainly there. This is a

448
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 11: Russian fascist dictatorship that is committing aggression. I have to

449
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 11: talk about navioliny for a second. This is a murder

450
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 11: putent principal leader. Whether he was frozen to death in

451
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 11: the Arctic gradually and starved to death or submitted to illness,

452
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 11: or whether he was directly accelerated in a murder through

453
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 11: some type of activity up there in that remote place.

454
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 11: That's an important message to the people of Russia, to

455
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,239
Speaker 11: the people of Europe, and it ought to be an

456
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 11: important message to the people of the United States that

457
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 11: this is what's in our future if we don't step

458
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 11: up and do something right now.

459
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 12: But you're right about this.

460
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 11: The messaging I think needs to be strong are European allies.

461
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 12: I worked with him every day while I was in

462
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 12: the on behalf of the United States.

463
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 11: Their best interest for their citizens all across Europe is

464
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 11: to follow American leadership. If American leadership falters, they will

465
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 11: do the best they can for their citizens, just like

466
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 11: we do for our citizens. And that means that there's

467
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 11: risk up the road that they'll compromise.

468
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 12: We can't allow that to happen.

469
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 11: Russia cannot succeed in this attempted conquest and the subject

470
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 11: and subjugation of Ukraine trying to reassemble the Russian Empire.

471
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 11: If he does that, he threatens Europe and eventually that

472
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 11: ret in the United States of America.

473
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 5: Would it have helped Governor if Donald Trump, the former president,

474
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 5: in his statement about the death of Alexi Navalny, had

475
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 5: in fact condemned Vladimir Putin, It didn't even mention his name.

476
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 12: Well, I'm certainly doing it.

477
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 11: I mean, I think that right now that all of

478
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 11: our national leadership needs to be as vigorous and strong

479
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 11: on this as possible and explode some of these myths. Listen,

480
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 11: we have a right to know that the money the

481
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 11: taxpayers sent to Ukraine is being properly spent, and that

482
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 11: means that that information has to be shared. Do z

483
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 11: Lenski administration has to be it pains to get that

484
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 11: information to the American taxpayer if he wants the taxpayer money.

485
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 11: It means that the national leadership from the White House

486
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 11: has got to be explicit about addressing these issues. You

487
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 11: have to explain that the American border is important, but

488
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 11: it's really a different issue from Russian aggression in Europe.

489
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 12: America is a great power.

490
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 11: We can do all of these things appropriately, but it

491
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 11: requires leadership both internationally.

492
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 12: And you're in the United States, all.

493
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 4: Right, Ambassador Gilmore, thank you so much for joining us.

494
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 4: Always great to get your insight. Is the former United

495
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 4: States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation and Europe,

496
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 4: and of course also former governor of Virginia and former

497
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 4: RNC chair. Quite a moment we are in as we

498
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 4: hear the ambassador talking of grave geopolitical risk, and yet

499
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 4: Congress it's unclear whether or not they want to do

500
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 4: anything about it. We'll have more coming up for you

501
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 4: next on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio.

502
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

503
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 2: Catch just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay.

504
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 3: And then Broudo with the Bloomberg Business App.

505
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

506
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

507
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 5: Welcome to the Tuesday Feels Like Monday edition of Balance

508
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 5: of Power. I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York,

509
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 5: Kayley Lines at Bloomberg's Washington Bureau. Political news is funny, Kayley,

510
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 5: It's not always what the headline says. We spent the

511
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 5: whole weekend talking about Donald Trump's four hundred dollars gold sneakers,

512
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 5: and he knows how to plant this story right. I

513
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 5: don't know if you've got your pre order, and it

514
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 5: was it was Joe Biden's fundraising though. That was the

515
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 5: real news.

516
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, because he's done a lot of it. In the

517
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 4: month of January. Joe forty two million dollars has been

518
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,719
Speaker 4: pulled in for his reelection campaign and the Democratic Party

519
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 4: more broadly.

520
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: So.

521
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 4: He ended January with one hundred and thirty million dollars

522
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 4: in the war chest. That's pretty significant, actually a record

523
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 4: amount for a Democratic candidate at this point in the calendar.

524
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 5: That's for sure. It's one of the reasons why of

525
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 5: the primary reason why he's in California this week as well,

526
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 5: because Joe Biden is in fund raising mode and Kaylee,

527
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 5: we spent all last week talking about how much money

528
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 5: Donald Trump is spending on attorneys. He, for what it's worth,

529
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 5: has not put up his numbers yet. When we get

530
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 5: to the deadline, we'll see them. But he's likely to

531
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 5: run out of cash because of all that the court

532
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 5: cases by July, as Joe Biden continues to put checks

533
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 5: in the bank. It's a pretty interesting phenomenon.

534
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 4: Indeed, as we're thinking that Trump is going to have

535
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 4: to pay out more than four hundred and million dollars

536
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 4: in damages to Egene Carroll and then the state of

537
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 4: New York for those two civil trials, and then you

538
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 4: have to pay all your attorneys. And he spent more

539
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 4: than fifty million dollars in campaign funds doing that in

540
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,719
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three. So definitely a difficult financial picture for

541
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 4: the former president. For the incumbent president, though maybe a

542
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 4: better one. The question is can you put all that

543
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 4: money to use to actually benefit in a race where

544
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 4: a lot of polls show you behind Donald Trump at

545
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 4: this point. So on that note, let's bring in Bloomberg

546
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 4: Politics contributor Genie Shanzeno alongside Lisa Kumuso Miller, former RNC

547
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 4: communications director and of course host of the Friday Reporter podcast.

548
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 4: So Genie, first to you, what's all the money worth

549
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 4: if it's not deployed appropriately? Is the Biden campaign doing

550
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 4: a good enough job right now of spending it?

551
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 13: Yeah, you know they have time, They're going to be

552
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 13: spending it. What they're doing right now is this fundraising machine. Essentially,

553
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 13: it has been a jugger, not, as you said, the

554
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 13: most we've seen out of a Democratic candidate at this point.

555
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 13: This is the biggest hall since April of last year.

556
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 13: And there's one number in particular that stands out. Ninety

557
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 13: seven percent of these donations were under two hundred dollars.

558
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 13: That is very, very impressive for the campaign. These are

559
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 13: not just all big time big funders. These are small

560
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 13: money donations. And also to add to that, the fact

561
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 13: that they raised in the three days after Iowa a

562
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 13: million dollars per day. That speaks to where this money

563
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 13: is coming from. And Nancy Cook said it earlier. A

564
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 13: lot of this is coming not necessarily because people are

565
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 13: so excited about Joe Biden, although they may get there

566
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,479
Speaker 13: as we move forward, but because of Donald Trump looking

567
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 13: like he is going to be the nominee of the

568
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 13: Republican Party and a real intent the part of people

569
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 13: funding the Democrats to stop that. And so they are

570
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 13: out there doing the hard work now of raising the

571
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 13: money and then to your point, they're gonna have to

572
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 13: spend it wisely.

573
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 5: Well, we promise context here at Bloomberg, and it's worth

574
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 5: throwing some on this particular story here, just to reset

575
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 5: what Kayley mentioned, forty two million dollars in January for

576
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 5: the Biden campaign and the DNC. That means one hundred

577
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 5: and thirty million in the bank. Now, that actually still

578
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 5: trails what Donald Trump and the RNC had in the

579
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 5: bank in twenty twenty, not so much this time. The

580
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 5: RNC started the year with over eight million dollars cash

581
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 5: on hand, and Donald Trump hasn't put up his numbers yet.

582
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 5: Here he was coming in with thirty three million dollars.

583
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 5: They will have their totals up for January. Context, Lisa

584
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,719
Speaker 5: formerly of the RNC, You understand how this works. What

585
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 5: are the conversations like inside the halls and the offices

586
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 5: at the Republican National Committee knowing how much money is

587
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 5: going to Donald Trump's lawyers.

588
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 14: Well, you know, Joe, it's really hard to compare. It's

589
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 14: like comparing apples to oranges, because when I was at

590
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 14: the RNC, there was a bit of a different structure

591
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 14: in the way that this the financing was happening, right,

592
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 14: And there are so many other third party groups that

593
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 14: are involved in all of this that it's hard to

594
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 14: really sort of compare the two. But what I will

595
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 14: say is that the party itself is on the verge

596
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 14: of transition. There's no question about it. Anytime a nominee

597
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 14: is getting ready to come into their own and be

598
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 14: at least the incumbent or the one that is going

599
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 14: to be the candidate that will run for the platform,

600
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 14: it's time for a change. And I suspect that is

601
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 14: what's going to happen at the RNC, And sometimes breathing

602
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 14: new life into the RNC, into the political parties does

603
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 14: reignite sort of the interest and the fundraising piece of that.

604
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 14: The one segment that's sort of different that we really

605
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 14: can't even sort of factor in because it's also brand new,

606
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 14: is all of these extra expenses, the legal expenses to

607
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 14: your point, So I think what we're going to have

608
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 14: to watch is sort of how that all unfolds. The

609
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 14: one thing I'll say, though, is that what's different about

610
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 14: these rulings and what's different about Donald Trump is that

611
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 14: he is someone that knows how to leverage one item

612
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 14: over another.

613
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 11: Right.

614
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 14: He is someone who has very often figured out how

615
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 14: the system works, and he has used it to his

616
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 14: advantage to raise more money on the business side.

617
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 8: So I suspect he's looking.

618
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 14: For all of those angles on political side as well.

619
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 14: The one thing I'll say for certain is that this

620
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 14: is going to be the most expensive presidential race we

621
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 14: will see in our history in our lifetime. They're going

622
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 14: to set records this year, and so that's sort of

623
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 14: indicative of what we're seeing on the Democrat side. The

624
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 14: most money in a war chest for an incumbent president

625
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 14: on the Democrat side, and I suspect that the money

626
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 14: is going to continue to pour in for Donald Trump

627
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 14: as well. And obviously he's using resources and different means

628
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 14: like selling four hundred dollars shoes to make that happen.

629
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's absolutely true. But Lisa, to your point of

630
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 4: about how there are all of these other factors, like

631
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 4: his legal fees at play.

632
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 12: Now.

633
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 4: I wonder if ultimately everything turns out fine for the

634
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 4: financing of Donald Trump and his presidential bid, what suffers,

635
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 4: perhaps is every Republican down the ballot who isn't going

636
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 4: to be able to tap into RNC resources at a

637
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 4: time when the Democratic Party may have more resources to

638
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 4: go around. Is that really where we're going to see

639
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 4: the impact here, not at the presidential level, Lisa, but

640
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 4: for everybody else who's trying to get a piece in.

641
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 3: The buy ale.

642
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 14: It's hard to know because there are other fundraising operations

643
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 14: within the political structure, right There's the National Republican Congressional Committee,

644
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 14: There's the Senate Committee. There are lots of other political

645
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 14: arms that are also doing some tremendous fundraising, and that

646
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 14: fundraising is sort of operated not necessarily from the top

647
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 14: of the ticket, but from the top of the US Senate,

648
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 14: so through Mitch McConnell and his political operation, as well

649
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 14: as Mike Johnson, who is also raking in millions and

650
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 14: millions of dollars. There's been a lot of support for

651
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 14: him over the course of the last few weeks, since

652
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 14: he started just six weeks ago, so some of that,

653
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 14: I think as much as there may be impact down ballot,

654
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 14: I think more often than that, what we will end

655
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 14: up seeing is that people will be making choices about

656
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 14: where they're sending their money, whether it's to the RNC

657
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 14: or if it's to the other political operations within the

658
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 14: structure of the political parties.

659
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 5: Genie, we need to talk about Michigan. This is not

660
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 5: being widely reported because Joe Biden's going to win the primary.

661
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 5: It's a week from today. By the way, we're obsessing

662
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 5: over South Carolina. Michigan's a week from today, and there's

663
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 5: a movement to get Democrats to vote uncommitted next week.

664
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 5: This is a movement that has the backing of Congresswoman

665
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 5: Rashida Talib. There's a separate abandoned Biden campaign launched by

666
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 5: Muslim voters who formally backed Joe Biden. Without the Arab

667
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 5: American Muslim American vote, he would have lost Michigan in

668
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 5: twenty twenty, Genie, And because of what's happening right now

669
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 5: in Gaza, he could lose them this time around what

670
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 5: happens in Michigan next week.

671
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 13: Yeah, it's got to be a big concern to the campaign.

672
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 13: I mean the idea that you have a Democrat in

673
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 13: Rashida to Lee urging Democrats in her home state to

674
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 13: vote uncommitted against an incumbent president. You know, that is

675
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 13: very unusual, but I think it speaks to your point

676
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 13: about what a big issue this war with Moss and

677
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 13: Israel is domestically. I mean, normally we would say foreign

678
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 13: policy issues don't play big in presidential campaigns. They usually don't.

679
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 13: This is something different, particularly on the Democratic side. We're

680
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 13: gonna have to wait and see what happens in Michigan.

681
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 13: There is a large population of Jewish Americans as well

682
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 13: in Michigan. But the impact is real because of course

683
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 13: Joe Biden won that very narrowly last time around, and

684
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 13: he needs to get out the vote. I would also

685
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 13: watch out for people, particularly in the African American community,

686
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,240
Speaker 13: who who have been empathetic to what's happening in Gaza

687
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 13: and who are looking in particular at people like RFK Junior,

688
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 13: who is out there talking about issues they care about,

689
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 13: like the environment. And so you couple those together and

690
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 13: this is a big challenge for Joe Biden. And you

691
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 13: know he'll win Michigan, but the question is if we

692
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 13: see a drop in people turning out, that is a

693
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 13: warning sign for Democrats.

694
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 5: Great panel, Great conversation with Genie Shanzano and Lisa Cabuso Miller.

695
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 5: Great to have you both of you, both of you

696
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 5: with us. I should say, Kaylee, forgive me for interrupting

697
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 5: here when we look back to twenty twenty just for

698
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 5: the context on Bloomberg here, Joe Biden won by one

699
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty five thousand votes, including the vast majority

700
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 5: of the states two hundred thousand Muslim voters. That's the number,

701
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 5: two hundred thousand.

702
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a very small number when you think about

703
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 4: the electorate as a whole, Joe, and it just goes

704
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 4: to show you how close these swing states are and

705
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 4: how issues are. This really could matter and interesting to

706
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 4: have this conversation on a day in which we've just

707
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 4: seen the United States vetoing a UN Security Council resolution

708
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 4: to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Yes, it's

709
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 4: because the US is trying to continue to pursue a

710
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 4: diplomatic answer exchange of hostages held by a hamas for

711
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 4: a sea spire of some period of time, which obviously

712
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 4: hasn't happened yet, but optimi optically, at least for the president,

713
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 4: could be pretty difficult.

714
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 5: The news today, Kaylee Lines my partner in Washington. I'm

715
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 5: Joe Matthew at least for this week. At World Headquarters

716
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 5: in New York.

717
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

718
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

719
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,959
Speaker 1: roud Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also

720
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

721
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:54,240
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. It's not Monday.

722
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 5: It just feels like one. Welcome to Tuesday in new numbers.

723
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 5: With four days to go now to the South Carolina primary.

724
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 5: It seems so far away. So much seemed possible when

725
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 5: we were in Iowa and New Hampshire. Not so much

726
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 5: now as I read on the terminal. Nikki Haley vowing

727
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 5: to stay in the Republican presidential race against Donald Trump

728
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 5: regardless of the outcome of Saturday's contest. And that's a

729
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 5: good thing, because she's looking at the same numbers we

730
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 5: are not good today. Suffolk University, USA today shows those

731
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 5: among those at least very likely to vote in the

732
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 5: Republican primary in South Carolina, Donald Trump leads Nicky Haley

733
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 5: by close to two to one, sixty three percent to

734
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 5: thirty five percent. Emerson is also out with a poll

735
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 5: today showing not quite as wide a gap, but a

736
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 5: slam dunk for Donald Trump. And that's where we start

737
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 5: our conversation with Gregory Cordy. He's with us from Bloomberg's

738
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 5: Washington Bureau. Of course, Bloomberg Politics reporter Gregory. We've seen

739
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 5: remarkable consistency in the numbers, whether it was Winthrop or

740
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 5: Suffolk or Emerson. Coming out of South Carolina. Nikki Haley

741
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 5: is gonna lose badly this weekend, is what they're telling us, Right.

742
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 7: Yeah, if you want to look at the bright side

743
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:15,959
Speaker 7: for her, she is gaining ground on Trump. Back when

744
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 7: just half the New Hampshire primary she was trailing by

745
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 7: thirty points on average. Now if you average out those

746
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 7: poles that you talked about just now, she's trailing by

747
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 7: twenty five points. But the problem is the primaries in

748
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:33,240
Speaker 7: four days, and at this rate, she will overtake Trump

749
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,800
Speaker 7: sometime far in the future when it won't matter anymore.

750
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 7: And so, yeah, these are discouraging poll numbers for her,

751
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:43,280
Speaker 7: but she's pledging to soldier on at least through Super Tuesday,

752
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 7: when frankly, the polls and the party rules are even

753
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 7: more foreboding for her, because then you get into winner

754
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 7: take all states, where all Trump needs to do is

755
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 7: when a bare majority and gets all the delegates, and

756
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 7: that can those can stack up pretty quickly, and at

757
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 7: this rate, he could clinch the nomination by early to

758
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 7: middle of next month.

759
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 5: Well, that's certainly what the Trump camp thinks, Gregory. As

760
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 5: Nicky Haley delivers what is being referred to as a

761
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 5: state of the race speech today in Greenville, she's at

762
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 5: it right now. Donald Trump's senior advisor on the campaign,

763
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 5: Chris la Sevita, says, this is done in the next

764
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 5: four weeks, not who's ahead, who's trailing, like done presumptive.

765
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 5: We have the delegates. This is the math here. Even

766
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 5: if Haley reprises her New Hampshire performance in every state

767
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 5: voting over the next four weeks, the campaign has crunched

768
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 5: numbers to show that Donald Trump would still cross twelve

769
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 5: to fifteen twelve hundred and fifteen delegates required on March nineteenth, Gregory,

770
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 5: that's the day Florida Illinois, Ohio have winner take all primaries.

771
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 5: Could Nicky Haley, if this really is a campaign in

772
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 5: waiting for something to go wrong, continue through all of this,

773
00:41:58,560 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 5: just hang in there.

774
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, she really is waiting for some big game changing moment,

775
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 7: but it's hard to see where that will come from.

776
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 7: Of course, former President Trump is facing four different criminal indictments,

777
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:14,359
Speaker 7: but the trials for those won't start until late next

778
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 7: month at the earliest, and even those don't seem to

779
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 7: have much of a sway on Republican voters, who tend

780
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 7: to rally around him every time he faces these these

781
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 7: legal challenges. There's just such a big chasm here with

782
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 7: where the Republican base is now behind Trump and where

783
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 7: you know, those sort of moderate you know, those more

784
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 7: moderate liberal Republicans. We might call them traditional Republicans, main

785
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,919
Speaker 7: street Republicans, country club Republicans, whatever you want to call them.

786
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,280
Speaker 7: They still exist in the Republican Party. They still would

787
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 7: love to find a Republican candidate that they like, certainly

788
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,240
Speaker 7: more than Donald Trump and certainly more than Joe Biden.

789
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 7: But there's just not enough of them to carve out

790
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 7: space for Nicki Haley at this point.

791
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 5: Like we do have an ear Gregory on her speech

792
00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 5: right now. She did player around a little bit when

793
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 5: she came out there, but not dropping out as some suggested.

794
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 5: She did acknowledge that right off the top. If you

795
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 5: have to tell people you're not dropping out in a

796
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 5: campaign speech, where does that say? What does that say

797
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 5: about your campaign?

798
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 8: Now?

799
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 7: The problem is when you're behind at this stage of

800
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 7: the race, you have to tell people every day you're

801
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 7: not dropping out, because the one day that you tell

802
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 7: people you don't tell people that, people assume you're gonna

803
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 7: drop out, and then that's where the donor money dries up,

804
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 7: and that's where things really start to go south. So, yeah,

805
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 7: she she has to come out and say that she's

806
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 7: in this for at least the medium term, and that

807
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 7: includes South Carolina obviously on Saturday, but then also Super

808
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 7: Tuesday early next month. And in between we have Michigan

809
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 7: where her campaign just put in seventy one thousand dollars

810
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 7: in the Detroit market and television advertising. That's not a

811
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 7: whole lot, but it is laying a marker to say, look, clearly,

812
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 7: I'm looking beyond South Carolina. And so she has to

813
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 7: do those kinds of things to at least project that

814
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 7: this is not a campaign that's going to drop out.

815
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,840
Speaker 7: Because remember that the yardstick that she set for herself

816
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,839
Speaker 7: after New Hampshire, she said, you know, I came in

817
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 7: a third in Iowa, I came in second in New Hampshire,

818
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 7: and all I need to do is improve on my

819
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 7: performance from state to state. She's now moving those goalposts

820
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 7: to say that she's in it no matter what after

821
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 7: South Carolina. That's not what she said right after to

822
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 7: New Hampshire. She needed to improve on New Hampshire to

823
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 7: stay in it. She's not necessarily saying that in her

824
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 7: speech in Greenville as we're watching today. Yeah, that's for sure.

825
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,720
Speaker 5: You wonder what a Tim Scott endorsement might have meant

826
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 5: at this stage, if she was able to wrap that up.

827
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 5: Of course, Donald Trump got it in New Hampshire. Gregory,

828
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 5: it's good to see you, and we thank you. He'll

829
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 5: be of course a part of our coverage here of

830
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 5: South Carolina primary. It's only four days away. It's not

831
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 5: looking good for Nicki Haley. But as we keep hearing,

832
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 5: that just may not matter when it comes to her

833
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 5: plans staying in the race. Enter Goldman's sacks. It's the

834
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 5: economy stupid. You want to advance to the general election

835
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 5: and get a sense of what voters will be basing

836
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 5: their decisions on. Check this report February fifth. Reading about

837
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 5: this today a fascinating read on Bloomberg. Wouldn't know about

838
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 5: it if it weren't on the terminal and at bloomberg

839
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 5: dot com. This is new research that explores where the

840
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 5: economy will be when we vote in who that might

841
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 5: break for. And it finds that President Biden's economy will

842
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 5: be right around the dividing line that separates winning re

843
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 5: election campaigns from losing ones. And they've identified about a

844
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 5: dozen areas here in which they can plant their flag

845
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 5: and essentially make a prediction. This is fascinating stuff, and

846
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 5: we knew there was one man to talk to about it.

847
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 5: Danny Blanchflower is with us, the economist of course at

848
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 5: Dartmouth College, recipient of the Commander of the Order of

849
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 5: the British Empire in he put the fishing pole down

850
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 5: to talk to us for a couple of moments to day.

851
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 5: Unbalanced the power, mister Blanchflower, It's great to see you either.

852
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 5: Could anyone in their right mind, could anyone in their

853
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 5: right mind predict where the economy is going to be

854
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:15,720
Speaker 5: in November.

855
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 15: Well, honestly, it's really really difficult. It certainly looks like

856
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 15: a soft landing. It certainly looks like the economy is

857
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 15: in pretty good shape now, much better shape than I

858
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 15: expected with all the rate hikes. But in nine months time,

859
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 15: who knows. But I don't think there's a prospect a

860
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 15: very rapid deterioration between now and November. And that's something

861
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 15: catastrophic which I don't foresee. But we're going to see

862
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 15: unemployment rates below four percent or some something like that.

863
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 15: So if you look at all the forecasting, well it's

864
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 15: the whole set of models done by Ray Fair and others.

865
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 15: The state of the economy is an important indicator of

866
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:58,959
Speaker 15: what's coming. People's living standards are important, and people's perceptions

867
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 15: are important. But in a sense, the contradiction is people's

868
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 15: perceptions of how the economy is doing are not that great,

869
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 15: but they keep on spending and the economy is very resilient.

870
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 15: And so there's the puzzle.

871
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 5: Well, you just outline that perfectly, because it's confounding the

872
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 5: administration and the Biden campaign. We look at the strength

873
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 5: behind this jobs market, it's enough to confound the stock

874
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 5: market certainly as well when you look at consumer spending,

875
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 5: you mentioned it, and that's one of the areas that

876
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 5: Goldman looked at. Here in what could change the picture

877
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 5: before November as they point out savings from stimulus and lockdown,

878
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 5: running out, where's the consumer six or nine months down

879
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 5: the road?

880
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 15: Well, I mean, in some sense, the last two years

881
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:46,800
Speaker 15: has been about expecting the consumer to back off, especially

882
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 15: in the light of what they say in terms of

883
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,359
Speaker 15: consumer confidence measures. Consumer confidence measures over the last twelve

884
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 15: months or so have been absolutely predicting recession. They tell

885
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 15: you stories about the recession that we saw in twenty

886
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 15: oh eight. They've been system with that, but the consumer

887
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 15: has still kept going. So unless there's something really that

888
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 15: changes everything, my assumption has to be now you know

889
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 15: that I was wrong, that the data, I mean, all

890
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 15: the things predicted something coming were wrong. But there are

891
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,840
Speaker 15: one or two little negatives on the horizon. Let me

892
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 15: give you one a couple of good predictions. Besides about

893
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 15: whether we're in recession, A couple of good indicators is

894
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 15: whether we have two successive months of negative growth in

895
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 15: employment now either on what's called the establishment gap, which

896
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 15: is non farm payrolls or on the household account, which

897
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 15: is where you generate the unemployment rate. And we've seen

898
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 15: very big declines over the last two months. Six hundred

899
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 15: and eighty thousand the month before and thirty eight thirty

900
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 15: one thousand. That's a pretty darn good indicator to say

901
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 15: you've gone into recession. But none of the other things

902
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 15: that are sitting with it. So obviously you know there

903
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,920
Speaker 15: are one or two red flashing lights. But I think

904
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 15: Goldman's right that it's hard to see the economy being

905
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 15: really bad. Although the perception, I think is people see

906
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 15: very well that potential Republican voters see the economy as

907
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 15: being much worse than the Democrat voters do. And obviously

908
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 15: the question is what are the swing voters in the

909
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 15: middle sea and how does it change by state. But

910
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 15: I think this is a tough one to call. But

911
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 15: we're I mean we're now we're now coming up to mark.

912
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 15: We're not that far away. Economy is in less some

913
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 15: terrible shock. It's than that you did in eight and

914
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 15: in twenty twenty, and again I guess in twenty two

915
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 15: with the war and the inflation shock. But it's hard

916
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 15: to see much changing where we are so, so I

917
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 15: think pretty much keep on keeping on is likely where

918
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 15: we are.

919
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 12: Interesting.

920
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 5: You look at another item, that's inflation, of course, a

921
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 5: huge one for Joe Biden. In fact, it was referred

922
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 5: to in the report as Biden's weakest link. Danny Blanchflower.

923
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 5: What could change in Goldman Sachs's view is the war

924
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 5: in the Middle that has already sent flight costs surging.

925
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 5: That's another wild card.

926
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 15: Well, of course, I mean the ability to get goods

927
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 15: through the Gulf, through Suez, through the through the canals

928
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 15: and try and you know, continue to basically deliver products.

929
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 15: That's important. I mean, we know what happened supplied chains

930
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 15: he closed up during COVID, So that's an obvious potential.

931
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 15: I mean, obviously what happens in Ukraine does that war,

932
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 15: does it increase, does it slow?

933
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 3: What does it do?

934
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 15: So those are clearly potential shocks. But the inflation rate

935
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 15: has come down and come down sharply, of the order

936
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 15: of three percent. I think the best predictions, probably without

937
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 15: you know and knowing exactly what's going to happen in

938
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 15: the Middle East, is that those numbers will continue to drop.

939
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 15: And that's what most people are forecasting. And even if

940
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,240
Speaker 15: there's tough things going on, even if the unploant rate rises,

941
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 15: that predictions are something like four percent, and we haven't

942
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 15: talked about output, it doesn't appear that the recession. It

943
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 15: does appear that you output may be slowing. But the

944
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 15: light here it is you're still going to see positive

945
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 15: output and published for the second and third quarters, which

946
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 15: is what we'll see go into the recession. So in

947
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 15: lots of senses, I mean, the truth is that whether

948
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 15: people perceive it or not, the FED has actually generated

949
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 15: a soft landing. The data are pretty damn good, and

950
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:23,240
Speaker 15: a president is entitled to say I generated masses of jobs.

951
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 15: The endpoint rate didn't lies. Wage growth is held up,

952
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 15: and the economist continued to grow against all the pundits

953
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,320
Speaker 15: and all the predictions. So in some sense that's that's

954
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 15: their fingers are crossed and hoping that some terrible shock

955
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 15: doesn't come and people come around to understanding how good

956
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 15: the economy is.

957
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 5: Boy, okay, we'll see about that, and time could be

958
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 5: the difference maker. Danny Blanchflower in our remaining moment here,

959
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 5: I wonder where you are though, on the you know,

960
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 5: the the rate hike camp right now we had Larry

961
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,760
Speaker 5: Summer see on Bloomberg last week that a hike is possible.

962
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,879
Speaker 5: Everyone's obviously betting on cuts. This thing does not move

963
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,760
Speaker 5: in a straight line. Could you see inflation reversing between

964
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 5: now and November?

965
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 15: No, I don't. I mean in some sense that I

966
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,839
Speaker 15: think this is Such comments by Larry Summers and others

967
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 15: are quite interesting. Well, I was an interest rates setup.

968
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,439
Speaker 15: The job of an interest rates ceter is to think

969
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 15: about what the inflation rate is going to be fifteen

970
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 15: months to two years ahead, because monetary policy takes quite

971
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 15: a time to have an effect. So even if inflation

972
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 15: now perhaps bumps around, that doesn't suggest that you should

973
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 15: raise rates. Everything suggests that inflation in the period ahead

974
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 15: is going to decline. I think it shows Larry Summer

975
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 15: doesn't seem to understand how you do market policy. It's

976
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 15: never been a monetary policy maker. And the answer is

977
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 15: the best thing to think about is rate cuts around

978
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,840
Speaker 15: the agenda. The question is how soon would it be marched?

979
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:51,439
Speaker 15: Would it be May? And they will continue to come.

980
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 15: But you're not monetary policy makers. Really, I shouldn't be

981
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 15: responding to one month at a time data that we

982
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 15: should be thinking what's my view of eighteen months ahead

983
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 15: and is the latest day they're.

984
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 8: Going to change my view about that?

985
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 15: So I don't be unless something fundamental change it. Anybody

986
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 15: who thinks is a ray Hip Cummings in Gaga.

987
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 5: Last time he was on the program, he made clear

988
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 5: to me and our listeners and viewers that he would

989
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 5: fail me. I would fail his economics class. And I'm

990
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:23,319
Speaker 5: pretty sure today didn't change that. Danny Blanchflower, It's great

991
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,760
Speaker 5: to see you. Thank you for the insights as always,

992
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 5: professor of Economics Dartmouth College. He can get back to

993
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 5: the fishing now. I'm Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters

994
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:38,640
Speaker 5: in New York. Glad you're with us, Holy Bloomberg. Thanks

995
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 5: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure

996
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 5: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or

997
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:47,480
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998
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 5: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

999
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 5: Bloomberg dot com.