WEBVTT - Bonus: Alastair Campbell & Jacob Rees-Mogg Debate Brexit 10 Years On (Live) 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio, News. 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.240 Does it, does it have any impact upon you that these reasonably intelligent 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:17.160 group of people actually think that what you inflicted upon 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:18.000 the country has damaged the country. 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:20.760 What I think is that the British people voted for, Yes, 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:23.720 they voted for They respect and democratic result, which you 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:24.920 have never wanted to do. 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:29.880 It was a day that changed Britain and Europe and 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:34.000 Tellias on Alastair, Campbell and Jacob Rees-Mogg go head to 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.959 head on Brexit. Do you think that Brexit has led 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:40.120 us to the much more multi party politics that we 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:40.680 are in now. 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:43.600 Well, the reasons for Brexit is that people felt whoever 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:47.120 they voted for, nothing changed, Very little has changed in 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.120 the ten years since, and now they're looking at other parties. 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:52.920 A lot of people who voted for Brexit are disappointed 0:00:52.960 --> 0:00:57.280 that that hasn't delivered a better life for them. 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:02.880 From Bloomberg Weekend. This is the Mishal Husain Show. I'm Mishal Husain. 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:10.679 The premise of this podcast the promise, if you like, 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.920 of what we do every week is one essential conversation 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:19.240 to make sense of the world, but sometimes there's more 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:24.240 to talk about. Today is the ten year anniversary of 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:29.000 the UK voting to leave the European Union, an enormous 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:33.520 decision and one that contributed to the unprecedented churn in 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:38.200 the number of prime ministers sense a phenomenon that's continuing 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:42.760 right now given the resignation of Keir Starmer. So what 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:46.479 did Brexit do to the UK's politics as well as 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:51.120 its economy? The ten year milestone gives us an opportunity 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:55.080 to reflect on just that, to look forward as well 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:59.600 as back. And for this bonus episode, we decided to 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.480 bring to gather two people on both sides of the 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:06.760 debate who feel as strongly about Brexit now as they 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:11.920 did back in twenty sixteen. They are Jacob Rees-Mogg and 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:15.560 Alastair Campbell, who came into our London office to speak 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:21.160 to an audience of Bloomberg subscribers. Quick final note before 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.120 we hear them. If you want to be in the 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.480 room for one of these in the future, there is 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.919 a link to subscription offers in our show notes. And 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:37.480 here's what happened when Jacob and Alastair joined me on stage. 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:39.600 Welcome Now. 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:42.120 Some of you will remember that it was at Bloomberg, 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.640 not in this building in our old headquarters, where David 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:47.520 Cameron made the fateful pledge that he was in favor 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:53.040 of having an in out referendum on the EU ten 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:53.519 years ago. 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:55.600 Jacob Rees-Mogg, you were a Conservative MP. 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:59.480 You campaigned to leave the EU Alastair Campbell. You were 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.040 very much on the other side in twenty sixteen, but 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:05.600 people knew you already from your work with Tony Blair 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:08.840 in Downing Street. In the time we have I want 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:12.320 to look back at the economic impact and the political 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.520 impact of Brexit in the last ten years, and also 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.400 your views on the future and what could or should 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:21.720 be the future of the UK's relationship with EU. 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.160 So first of all, as the results. 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:29.000 Came in in June 2016, what did you not appreciate 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:31.880 that we now know, Jacob. 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.360 Well, the one thing I didn't appreciate was that the 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:39.320 remain side, who had been quite passive in the referendum campaign, 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:43.440 would start campaigning much harder after the result than they 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:47.200 had done before. Very fair, whereas my side thought we'd 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:49.960 won and stopped and that was a mistake by our 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:53.560 side and fascinating by the other side. And that's had 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:56.920 very important consequences because since then you've had much more 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.080 from people who think it was a mistake I think 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.800 the reason they started campaigning after results was they never 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:03.760 thought they would lose, and they thought it was just 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.240 a few eccentrics like me who were in favor of it, 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:08.840 and that nobody would in fact vote for it. I 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:10.640 thought at the time we would win, because the more 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:13.360 I got away from central London, the clear it became 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:15.720 that there was a very large base of support for Brexit. 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.240 So that was the one big thing that I have 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:21.600 noticed is the difference in campaigning since the result. 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.159 Well, when you were asking the question, the thing that 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:30.520 popped into my head I was in ITV studio. Tom 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.560 Bradby was sitting there talking about this, that and the other, 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:37.279 and at the very moment when it came up that 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:41.520 it is now impossible for Remain to win, I saw 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:46.400 David Davis and Liam Fox look at each other with 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:51.599 absolute panic in their eyes. The thing that really surprised 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.120 me was that. And Jacob is right, by the way, 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:59.320 the Remain campaign was terrible. I actually I regret now 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:01.720 I didn't get that involved in the Remain campaign because 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:05.080 Cameron Osborne kept telling us it's all fine, it's all fine, 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:08.200 I don't worry about it. I got involved subsequently and I 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.320 was one of the few who admitted that the People's 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:14.000 Vote campaign, to my mind, was probably the only vehicle 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.280 we had left possibly to stop what I thought was 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.120 a terrible act of self harm. So I was open 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:22.240 about that. But I think what genuinely surprised me was 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:24.040 there was just no plan, that there was no plan 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:28.000 at all. The lies had been told, the myths had 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:31.320 been sold, and we had to pick up the pieces. 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:33.960 I do think Alice, to kind of all people, has 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.640 to be careful about talking about live considering his reputation. 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.120 Well, what's the reputation? 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:42.120 What's your reputation? High Court judge in nineteen ninety six 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.960 saying you're an reliable witness. That's quite a good part 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:46.320 of your reputation, isn't it. 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.839 Well stick to Brexit. 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.440 I think there's quite there's quite enough to get in. 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:56.720 But Alastair brought up this question of lie you did lie? No, 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:02.839 we didn't, you did you truth? But talking about lives, 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:05.160 Alastair needs to look at his own record because he 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:08.240 has done more to damage trust in British politics than 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:16.359 anybody has written a book about wanted to. This is 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:17.039 really important. 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:20.880 I would rather that given that I've set the parameters 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.000 on that we're going to talk about economic impact political 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:24.440 and do you mind if we turn to econom As. 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:26.320 Long as Alastair stopped saying we lied and then I 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:32.200 went talk about his life, I think we can spend 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:35.120 the whole debate lies, can I. 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:39.320 Can I tell you what Bloomberg Economics analysis just released 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.680 has been about the economic impact of the last ten years, 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:44.720 because this is just you know, they've they've crunched the 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.360 numbers as as you'd expect, and in terms of the 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:50.920 economic impact, this has been their finding that Brexit may 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:53.880 have already cost the UK economy between two and four 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:57.800 percent of GDP, that the Central estimate is very conservative, 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:00.600 two and a half percent of GDP lost over the 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:04.320 long run, which is equivalent to about thirty billion pounds 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:06.760 a year in foregone annual tax revenue. 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:07.840 How do you feel about that? 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:10.000 Well, that the figures don't actually stack up. So if 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:12.960 we look at the Bloomberg which is no, there are 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.960 different ways of interpreting figures. So when you look at 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:19.920 how the UK economy has done, actually we've outperformed Germany, 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:23.200 We've performed broadly in line with France. Why if we'd 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:26.320 remained in the EU, would we have performed as the outline. 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:28.960 Let me put it in broader terms, do you accept 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:32.120 that there has been any economic hit at all in 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.560 the last ten years compared to where the UK would 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:36.160 have been had it remained in the EU. 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.320 I think using our economic freedoms has actually helped us. 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:40.160 And if you look at. 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:41.480 Our trade, is that a yesterday? 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.080 Well, it's a complete answer if you give mention. If 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:47.560 you look at our trade, our invisible trade, our services 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:50.800 trade has been roaring ahead and I think that's been 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:54.000 partly possible. We've seen our trade with India increase very 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:57.360 rapidly and invisibles because we're outside the European Union, we're 0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:59.760 no longer confind by its rules. 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:03.920 So has has been beneficial beneficient? Okay, that's a very 0:08:04.040 --> 0:08:05.960 rare view that you think overall this has been a 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:10.360 net beneficent yes, okay, and not least. 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:12.360 Because we got the vaccine early. 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:21.720 So you people opened Let me just say, Jacob says 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:23.320 he doesn't want to leave. I'm not going to leave 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:24.840 this line thing because it. 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:26.960 Is part of let's go back to the lying thing. 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:30.720 I'm sure you have a lives record of lying to 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:36.000 the Commons of sexing up document. You may remember, can 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.400 I just finish the point where you want to talk about. 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:43.400 The public You have got. 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.160 One point out a single lie to me, You've got 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:45.400 I can point out a whole. 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:50.319 Second to talk about the substance because they're so deluded. 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:55.160 It's still thinking be anything more than happy. Every single 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:56.360 person in this room poorer. 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:57.680 That's your true. 0:08:57.760 --> 0:08:58.360 It is true. 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.760 You've made every single This comes simply we opened the 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:07.600 economy early vaccine justice and you never you're the one 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:09.600 who destroyed in the British. 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.120 Let me ask Allister Campbell the same question that I 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:18.040 put to you about the economic impact feweral facts and egame, Well, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.000 would you accept that the economic impact has not been 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.560 as bad as you thought, given that today the UK 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:28.640 is still under OECD projections projected to be the third 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.439 third fastest growing economy in the G seven. 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:35.960 I think that the economic consequences of brex had been catastrophic. 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:39.400 I think that you could if you take you've given 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.319 a conservative end, if you take some of the other assessments, 0:09:42.320 --> 0:09:44.559 that we're up to eight percent, between six and eight 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:49.480 percent on the economy. We now have small firms that 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:53.320 write to me all the time who have literally given 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:55.520 up trying to trade with the European Union because of 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:58.640 the red tape that these liars said they would cut 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.880 by leaving Brussels, They've now given up trading with business 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:06.160 productivity is lower than it would be, our GDP is 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.439 lower than it would be. And what's more, we could 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:13.160 double We've got a security crisis at the moment. If we, 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:16.320 to my argument, had not left the European Union, we 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:20.720 could currently double defense spending and increase the national health 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:24.440 service by fifty percent without touching any tax. 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:26.679 If everything that you're saying is true, then why are 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:30.240 we projected to be the third fastest growing Ye. 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:34.360 I've never been one of those anti Brexit people who 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:36.760 thinks that the European Union is some kind of panacea 0:10:36.840 --> 0:10:38.959 or some sort of Europe is not in a good place. 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:43.520 Europe's competitiveness is too low. But we in wrenching ourselves 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:45.720 out of the biggest market in the world. We have 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:49.559 done fundamental damage to every single person and business. 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:50.840 In this gusty Again, first of all, these figures are 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:53.640 just wrong. The eight percent is a joke figure and 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:55.960 assumes that we would have grown as the United States 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.920 has grown. The United States has grown faster because it's 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:03.040 got cheap energy have grown faster than Germany. What part 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:05.520 of being in the EU would have allowed us to 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:09.680 grow even faster than we have when its anchor economy 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:15.120 has been failing. Activity question finished. An activity question is 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:18.600 mainly a question in the public sector, where the private 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:22.760 sector productivity has been marginally increasing and the public sector 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:24.559 doesn't export the European Union. 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.640 I'm relying on the analysis done by the government, by 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.160 this government and the last government that has been tracked 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:34.880 that we have taken a substantial. 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.960 Everyone here to do it to the Bloomberg Economics analysis, 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:39.840 which has a wide range and where everyone can see 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:40.720 the basis of the figure. 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.440 Elster should just explain how the OBR came to its 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:45.640 four percent. I'm not talking about the OBI Well, that's 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:49.160 the key figure, the four percent figure. It's not that 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.520 was a four forecast by the. 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:56.640 National Bureau of Economic RESAR. That's not It is the 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:57.920 basic figure. 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.520 And I'm going to ask you I'm I'm going to 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:02.959 ask you both. I'm going to ask you both to 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:06.199 this aspect of it for a moment, because we can 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:07.800 both see that you're never going to agree on a 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:09.679 common set of numbers, and they are entitled to not 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:12.640 agree on a common set of numbers. Let's turn to 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.200 the political impact of the last ten years. 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:16.440 It's been a total triumph. 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.920 Do you hasn't it both of you? 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:20.360 To triumph both of you? 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.760 We're more respective in the world you're associating. 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.200 You spend your lives working for the two parties which 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:30.120 have dominated our politics for the last century. Do you 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:34.280 accept that both of their political fortunes have suffered because 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:35.800 of Brexit Alastair? 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:37.200 Do you accept that for Labor? 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.760 Yes? And I'll tell you why. Because they haven't fought 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.280 hard enough to make sure that the public fully understands 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:47.200 the calamity that was inflicted upon as by these people, 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.018 and they've tried to accept. One of I think Keir 0:12:51.018 --> 0:12:53.240 Starmer's mistakes was this idea that we're going to make 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.520 Brexit work. You can change things at the margins. And 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:58.320 they've tried very hard to do that with some of 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.280 the vetermin agreements with Erasma, Erse and so forth. But 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:06.080 they don't want to address the fundamental question. And you know, 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.160 am I allowed to ask the audience a question for 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:11.240 show of hands? I'd like to know because you know, 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:12.959 you can read polls, you can read all the stats 0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:14.319 and voices of it. Can I just ask the people 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.720 in this room who thinks I'd be very very neutral 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.360 success or failure for the United Kingdom? Who thinks Brexit 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.360 has been a success for the United Kingdom? Who thinks 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:24.160 has been a failure? 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.840 To explain, No one in the audience raised their hands 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:31.320 when Alastair asked if Brexit was a success. Nearly everyone 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.120 had raised their hands for failure. 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:36.559 You get that, Jacob, You can live in your dream world. 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:38.920 You get that everywhere in the country, everywhere. 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:42.160 If I'd been here in the year of the referendum 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:44.120 and we'd said who wants to leave and who wants 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:48.160 to stay, we'd have had exactly I found that every 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.480 yard I went from the center of the city of London, 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:52.960 you've got more supporters for breakfast. I knew if we 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:55.240 went to Lincolnshire, if we went to Cornwall. And I 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.400 really did find this during the debates, because I went 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.720 anywhere that invited me to speak, and the closer you 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:03.520 were to the center of the city, the heart of 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.000 the city, the more anti brex that it was. So 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.200 that doesn't surprise me at all that you get that. 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.960 Does it any impact upon you These reasonably intelligent group 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:15.760 of people actually think that what you inflicted upon the 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:16.880 country has damaged. 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.240 What I think is that the British people voted for yes. 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:23.320 They voted respect result that you have never wanted to do. 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:24.240 I've never wanted to do. 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:37.600 No. I'm going to bring in some polling by IPSOS 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:40.760 and we're going to talk in detail about the future 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.160 a bit later, but as a sense of where polling 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:46.760 stands right now, over half of British adults would vote 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.600 to rejoin the EU if a new referendum was held, 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:53.440 although that fifty two percent Alastair is probably not as 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.920 large a majority as you would hope for if things 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:58.800 have been such a disaster in the last ten years. 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.800 I think an awful lot of people just do not 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.800 want to revisit the debate. I do want to revisit 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:05.240 the debate, and I think it's a debate that has 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.480 to be had. But I under I meet lots of 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.520 people who completely buy my analysis of what's happened, but 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.400 actually just do not want to revisit the debate. And 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:16.720 I'm afraid that's where I think the Labor Government's. 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:18.440 Got itself into question, and that is it. 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:21.040 It's like if a vote was held fifty two percent 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.240 would apply to would apply to join the europe would 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.520 like to see the UK apply to join the rejoin 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:27.400 the European Union. 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:31.800 Yeah, I mean fifty thirty three. I mean that if 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:33.840 you're looking at that as an electoral thing, that's you'd 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.080 call that a landslide. But look, I don't think until 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.120 there is a debate. Nobody here, nobody in this room 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.480 thinks that we are going to have a referendum in 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.520 the near future. Okay, I would like to be one, 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:46.240 I don't actually think we're going to have one for 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.320 some time. And two reasons. One is I don't think 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:52.240 the political debate wants to hear. But secondly, while we've 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.880 got the prospect of people like Jacob getting into bed 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.840 with people like Nigel Farage and Nigel Ferrage possibly come 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.360 in the government, the European Union is not going to 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:03.720 think about having us back because this debate, this is 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:07.120 the triumph that Jacob can take some comfort and given 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.560 his views of the world that until the country is 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.200 settled in the view that we should be in the 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.920 European Union, the European Union is not going to have 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:17.320 us back. 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.600 Okay, before you answered, Jacob, I want to take you 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:21.720 back and put the same question to you that Aliet 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:26.600 answered a moment ago about labor. So how the impact 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:32.080 on your party, which fractured to some extent and has 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:33.760 been in power repeatedly since then. 0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:36.920 It's been very divisive for the Conservative Party since the 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.120 early nineteen nineties that there's been a pro European anti 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.960 European wing and that has made room for reform to 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.840 grow out of the Conservative Party and led to a 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:47.800 lot of divisions in. 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:52.800 The last party failed to actually handle Brexit properly. 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:54.600 And Asta made the point that there was no plan 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:57.200 for leaving. That was a deliberate policy and decision of 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:58.760 David Cameron, and it seems to me it was a 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.800 deeply responsible that if you give the country a referendum 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:03.920 and you're the prime minister, you ought to think you 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:04.840 could lose. 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.080 As someone who was arguing I knew what. 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:08.919 I wanted to do, but I wasn't in government. I 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.360 was a backbench MP and that was the difficulty. That's 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:15.960 the difficulty with referendums is that you don't have the 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:19.280 party that wins the referendum then implementing the policy. You 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.920 have the party that is government in government doing it. 0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:24.800 Who may disagree with the referendum, and that was the 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:28.000 position we got into, David Cameron going and Theresa May, 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:31.320 who was a remainer, taking over. And so yes, there 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.919 were lots of ideas of what we should do when leaving, 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:37.600 but we weren't the government of the day. We were 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:38.720 just arguing for those points. 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.880 But that gave them an extraordinary advantage that leave could 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:44.960 mean whatever any of the leaders said that it meant. 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:47.320 And that's why there was such a catalog of lies 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:52.200 because Johnson said one thing, for Ars said another one. Michael, 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:55.560 it was like listening to King Herod on childcare. Well, 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.320 I mean, I think you should get back getting to 0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:00.320 the modern world, Jacob. I know it's difficult for but 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:03.560 I think that I think that, And that's not an 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:08.639 antihistorical point. The list of your Peter Oburn list is 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:13.240 so debunked and so discredited bothered. I've never seen anything 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.840 in my life unlike the right I believe in free speech. Now, 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:19.399 if I can return pretty well heeled, if I can 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:22.719 return to help miche try to put Oh, he's got 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:27.280 footnotes in the book marvelous not to be true. I'll 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:30.520 tell you something about the book that I would recommend 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:32.320 you should get this for your book club, because this 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:37.960 is what Brexit's actually about. Jacob's dad, William Rees-Mogg, wrote 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:41.880 a brilliant book in nineteen ninety seven time for readed 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:44.600 the time. It's called The Sovereign Individual. It was a 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:47.600 guide to the rich and powerful about how to become 0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:50.520 more rich and more powerful. And it was written as 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:53.280 a note to investors. And that is what you interviewed, 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.879 Eilon Musk. That is what a lot of this is about. 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.359 It is about the rich getting more rich, the powerful 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:03.720 getting more power, and it's about people being conned by 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.840 clever people like Jacob and clever people by like Nigel 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:08.280 Farage into voting for. 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.159 Something that's are the only ones who are clever, the 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.600 ones who wanted to rejoin. My father believed that if 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:16.440 everybody in the world got rich, of the whole world 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:20.600 got richer, that free trade it is indeed, and there's 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.280 very strong evidence for that. So I'm more than happy 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:27.920 to defend my father and do would you want me 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:30.080 to come onto this chart because I think this is important. 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:31.880 You can say something about this chart. 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:34.800 Yes, it's very Yes, Minister-ish, because it absolutely depends on 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:36.760 the question you ask. So if you say this, would 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.680 you like to rejoin the EU, Yes, you get a majority. 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:41.760 Just from asking that question. 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:43.720 I mean there's thirty three people who. 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:48.200 Said say yes. Because people always hanker for what they 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.200 haven't got. But if you ask would you like to 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.280 join the euro and would you like your contributions to 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:58.000 go up on the latest budget proposals coming from Brussels 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:02.119 to thirty six billion pounds, the answer is very different. 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:03.960 When you say to people do you want your trade 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:07.399 rules made by a foreign country or international organizations? The 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.479 answers are different. So yes, this is a headline figure, 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:13.440 but it's not the full picture. And if we had 0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:15.560 a debate where I agree with Alastair's unlikely that we 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.760 will have the new referendum, I think this would all 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:20.359 change during the course of the debate. 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:21.119 Part of me is. 0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:25.639 Very perplex that people like you from the Conservative Party, 0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:29.560 who essentially the ethos is to conserve institutions, to believe 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.520 in representative government rather than the will of the people 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:35.600 in this kind of format, that you ever thought that 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:39.040 a referendum was the right way to make a big 0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:41.680 decision like this. There's something almost revolutionary about it. 0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:45.000 No, there isn't Dice sets out why he thinks the 0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:48.159