1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all right. 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: Here we go in front of the test throwing spect. 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: I'm sitting. 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: It's a cash touchdown. That's all we'll see. Most gamble 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: is when they go to gamble, they go to win. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: That's incredible. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money, all right. 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: This is is the ultimate combine and you want to 10 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: fall and we are underway. 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am M and 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 2: Abrams and today I am joined by the one, the 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 2: only Brandon Anderson to dive into honestly, one of my 14 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 2: favorite podcasts to him and I do every year and 15 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: just because it's it's kind of long shot season with 16 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 2: some of these, but we'll go into the criteria. It 17 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: is NFL award market, so this is really one of 18 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 2: his specialties. So he has got at least ten to 19 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 2: fifteen pages of notes, which he will definitely ten to 20 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 2: bear down a little bit. But Brandon, he's got articles 21 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: up on each of these awards, so we're gonna jam 22 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 2: them all into one episode. Here we'll get to who 23 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 2: typically wins these awards, some of the favorites, his best bets, 24 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: some long shots, some criteria. It's gonna be fun. We'll 25 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 2: also have a standalone episode specifically looking at the MVP, 26 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 2: so keep your eyes out for that. They're gonna we're 27 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 2: gonna record them pretty close to each other, and they 28 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: will be out in the feed pretty soon. So Brandon, 29 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: what's up, how's it going? Welcome to your favorite part 30 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: of the year. I guess I know this. 31 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: Is the big one, and you know this is one 32 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: of course that we'll be referencing and coming back to 33 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: all season long as we kind of update our positions 34 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: out of the portfolio. Yeah, we're doing eight awards today. 35 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: We got a brand new award that just started. We 36 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: have a Newish award that we're just allowed to bet 37 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: on this year, so those will be in there. It's 38 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: gonna be fun. We're gonna go five ish minutes per award. 39 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: If that's not enough for you, great news every one 40 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: of these. I've got a whole deep vive with, like 41 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: here are my twenty candidates, no lie, and here I'm 42 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: ranking them, and here's the top five and here's the 43 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: long shots. So we'll give you some names on bets 44 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: here from both me and Evan, and if you want 45 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 1: even more, it's all on Action Network. For sure to 46 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: catch the articles. There's already at least two up probably 47 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: four by the time you are listening to this, and 48 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: those are all be coming out this week. So yeah, 49 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: I'm excited Awards season. We got all the notes, we 50 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: got all the criteria. Let's get into it all right. 51 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're going to start with the Protector of 52 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: the Year, and yes, to our producer David Paine, it 53 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 2: is a real award. So you can start off the 54 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 2: top here by just saying now you can bet on it. 55 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: The favorites are Penny Suli plus four fifty. You've got 56 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 2: Lane Johnson around seven to one, Trent Williams, Melatta, Joe All. 57 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: So those are the big names at the top. So 58 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 2: why don't you just kind of go into the profile 59 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 2: a little bit of what at least who's voting on 60 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 2: it and how how are you going to win this award? 61 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: Let's call it. 62 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, So this one is very unique because of course 63 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: number one, it's brand new. So my whole stick on 64 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: awards is, Okay, what's the trend from the last ten years, 65 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: what's the last fifteen, What are the stats we're looking for? Well, 66 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: guess what, there's no stats. It's offensive linemen. So you 67 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: get like pff grade and that's about it. And there's 68 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: no history, we have no idea who they're picking. And importantly, 69 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: and this is really important, Normally all the rest of 70 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 1: these awards are chosen by fifty people who turn in 71 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: a ballot. Now it changed the ballots we were doing it. 72 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: We're doing like rank ballots, top three or five depending 73 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: on the award. Not this one. This one. It's a 74 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 1: brand new award that we chose a special panel for 75 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: with names you'd recognize. Guys like Jason Kelce. Two centers, 76 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: two guards, two tackles, so that's important. We got two 77 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: at each position. They're recently retired offensive linemen, Orlando Paces 78 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: in the mix, guys whose names you know, and those 79 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: six alone will be picking a winner. So what do 80 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: we do with that? Because we don't get to set 81 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: up all the criteria and what we expect is coming. 82 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: Here's what I think we should expect for the year 83 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: number one. I think I'm gonna treat this similar to 84 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: a defensive award in that we need a known name 85 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: we're not gonna recognize like some sleeper right guard backup 86 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: down the line. Defensive awards we usually like the big 87 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: known names. You name them at the top, all those names, 88 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: even though you're like, wait, I'm betting an offensive lineman. Yeah, 89 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: you know those names. You know who Pine Sewell is 90 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: because you know, you know these Eagles tackles, they're winning games, 91 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: they're making a mark on the game. So I think 92 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a non name. We need a winning team. 93 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 1: I think almost all these awards don't specify. But I've 94 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: done a Rookie of the Year. You almost always have 95 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: to win games because that's part of that's the whole point, 96 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 1: Like we're recognizing teams that deserve something good. I think 97 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: you probably need to play on a pretty good offensive line. 98 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: I'd prefer a great line that you're the standout, rather 99 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: than like the one superstar and then not a great 100 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: line around it. And I do think it matters, lastly, 101 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: that this is the first Protector of the year. I 102 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: think these guys choosing are gonna want to choose maybe 103 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: more of a legacy pick here, right, because this sets 104 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 1: the tone. They may not be on the the you know, 105 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: the choosing committee every year, but we want to get again, 106 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: that's back to the known name. I think you just 107 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: want an awesome offensive lineman. Like the names that we 108 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: know seem like they're probably going to be in the mix. 109 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: So that's what I think we're looking for, but we 110 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 1: should wait in carefully because we have no idea. 111 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 2: If for being honest, yeah, I would be shocked to 112 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 2: see the winner of this award be like fifty to one, 113 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 2: forty to one and have like a bunch of jumbled 114 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 2: criteria after a few years. But that's why the first 115 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 2: year is going to be the most entertaining. So you 116 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: have an article up on actionewer dot com breaking down 117 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 2: let me let me say this nicely, seventeen options of 118 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 2: who can bet this award, But just go through some 119 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 2: of your top bets. I'll give one out at the 120 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:51,719 Speaker 2: end here, but give me your thoughts. 121 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I kind of rule out seven names you 122 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: probably know that I don't think are in the mix. 123 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: One importantly, Dion Dawkins from the Bills is one of 124 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: the favorite and James Dean Dawkins actually helped to create 125 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: this award, like him and one of the guys in 126 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: the committee are where this award came from. That's just 127 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: a little too Martha Stewart for me. Like, I don't 128 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: think you can give it to the guy that helped 129 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: create the award, so I can't go him. I give 130 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: out four long shots in the article. Let me talk 131 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: you through from six to one my top six, and 132 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: then three of them I'm the best. So number six 133 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: Chiefs center Creed Humphrey widely assumed to be the best 134 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 1: center in the league, especially now that Frank Ragnow is retired. 135 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 1: He's plus thirty three hundred. So Creed Humphrey top center 136 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: in the league. And remember we have six guys voting. 137 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: Two are centers and two guards and two tackles. But 138 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 1: there's left and right on both of those, there's only 139 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: one center, so I'm kind of hoping for maybe on 140 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: this one, a bit of a plurality on some of 141 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 1: the other ones. And Creed Humphrey, obviously we're gonna talk 142 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: about the Chiefs a lot, watching them on TV every 143 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: single week, so that's him. Piney Sewell, you mentioned he 144 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: is the favorite. He's my number five guy here, so 145 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 1: that's a no bet for me at plus five. You 146 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 1: gotta look at the surroundings on these. Piney Sewell on 147 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: the line loses the two guys right next to him, 148 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: Kevin Zeitler and Frank Rereig. Now he also loses Ben Johnson. 149 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: You know we're talking about him today. So I think 150 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: that that is a step back on the line, and 151 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: frankly probably a step back from fifteen wins last year. 152 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: So I don't like investing in that sort of player. 153 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: I think he would have been my pick last year. 154 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: I think you would have been the winner a year 155 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: ago if you had to pick someone. It's not last year. 156 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: Number four Bears guard Joe Tooney was Chiefs guard Joe Toney, 157 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: so it's a name we know because of that. I 158 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: think the narrative there is pretty easy. Now you get 159 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: to go be the star in Ben Johnson's offensive line 160 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: where he helps to elevate line play, and you might 161 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: get double credit because if your absence makes the Chiefs 162 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: line not so good, that makes you look pretty valuable. 163 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 1: In both places. The Bears are better, the Chiefs are worse. 164 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: Tooney maybe is the top guard in the league. We 165 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: saw him play left tackle in the playoff run for 166 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: the Chiefs last year forty to one. He and Creed 167 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: Humphrey are my two long shots, cording you one each. 168 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: Three more names for you three and two go together. 169 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: It's the two Eagles guys joined my lot of Lane Johnson, 170 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: both tackles. I think this is like a Lebron and 171 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: Dwayne Wade situation, like how can you choose one when 172 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: they both exist together. They're both so good together that 173 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: I think that they sort of distill the vote, you know, 174 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: you take away from each other's argument. So the guy 175 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: that I like my number one pick and my first 176 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: bet of the podcast today, it was always going to 177 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: be Trent Williams eleven to one, my first bet of 178 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: the podcast, first Award bet of the year, transis stud 179 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: He is the guy. He is widely assumed to be 180 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: the best left tackle, which is widely assumed to be 181 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: the most important offensive line position. Rayshawn Slater and Tristan 182 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: and Wurss are both injured, so there's even bigger gap 183 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: between him and the other tackles. He's the dude on 184 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: a Niners team. They're about to go from six wins 185 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: to maybe contending for the one seed with a super 186 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: soft schedule. He's thirty seven, doesn't matter because when he's 187 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 1: out there, all the metrics add up for him. He's 188 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: still as good as any one. I think he will 189 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: miss a couple of games. But on this award there's 190 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:08,319 Speaker 1: no stats. I don't need compiling stats. And I think 191 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: when we talked to the top Legacy Award, Trent Williams 192 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: is a legacy award. This is the guy you want 193 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: repping the Protector of the Year award as the dude 194 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: on the offensive line. So I love Trent Williams eleven 195 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: toh one full unit bat on him. And then I 196 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: mentioned Toney and Creed Humphrey quarter unit as long shots 197 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: on those two. 198 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, my only question is is what are the six 199 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 2: guys the Kelsey Company, you know, the people who will 200 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 2: be you know, voting on this award. What are they 201 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 2: going to be looking at? Like? Are they going to 202 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 2: ask somebody for some stats. Are they just gonna, you know, 203 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 2: have a few beers and make a decision. I think 204 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,319 Speaker 2: it honestly kind of depends because I think you agreed 205 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 2: with me on two long shots. I like Creed Humphrey 206 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 2: and I like Toney Humphrey. I mean from a stats 207 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 2: point of view, he doesn't really give up slash sacks. 208 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 2: You look at some of these sites, only twelve blocks 209 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 2: blown by last year and you know, fifteenth most snaps, 210 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 2: So the stat all there, he's on Kansas City. I 211 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 2: think it makes the most sense. And Tony I think 212 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 2: is fun for one reason, like God forbid one of 213 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 2: the linemen get into a spot to catch a touchdown, 214 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 2: which we've seen on the Detroit side. Now would Ben 215 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 2: Johnson even consider that with Caleb and Chicago, I don't know, 216 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 2: but it's a thought. And I like the idea of 217 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 2: Toney and the long shot there. So those are my 218 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 2: two look ats here are we good with Protector of 219 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 2: the Year? We good to move on. 220 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: I like the touchdown idea, just you know, boost the 221 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: numbers a little bit, go get our own. 222 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 2: Yeah. And also you know, Chicago's gonna get a lot 223 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 2: of looks and you know, things of that nature. But 224 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 2: maybe it was a Dan Campbell thing. You don't know 225 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 2: exactly who's coming up with that in the meetings. All right, 226 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 2: comeback player of the Year. Now, this has had all 227 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 2: sorts of drama on the internet. You know, the Flacco 228 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 2: thing that happened a year or two ago. This seems 229 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: to be just more of a narrative story, but kind 230 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 2: of go into it. Burrows won it twice in four years. 231 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 2: Just just some crazy different numbers Brandon. 232 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a weird wonky award the account I want 233 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: to be careful on. I think so we now have 234 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: been specifically told that voters are supposed to tweet Comeback 235 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 1: Player of the Year as an injury comeback a health 236 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: comeback award. So aka Joe Flacco Turner fifty to one, 237 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: suck it, that's gone forever. We don't want you retired 238 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: off the couch. We want you actually returning from injury. However, 239 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: should be noted Sam Darnold did get seven first place 240 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: votes last year, even though he technically shouldn't be eligible. 241 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: Nobody's ineligible. They're just called to do the quote spirit 242 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: of the award by injury and health. So I think 243 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: we have to assume that that's the sort of comeback 244 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: we want. We want a guy in a winning team. 245 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: Fourteen of our last fifteen winners of Comeback Player of 246 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: the Year won at least nine games thirteen out of 247 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: fifteen to one playoffs. Perro screwed that up for us 248 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: last year. But we need a winning team, and we 249 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: probably want a quarterback. Seven of the last seven winners 250 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: here are quarterbacks. Twelve of the last sixteen are quarterbacks 251 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,719 Speaker 1: as well. So you know, big shocker. We want a 252 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: quarterback that wins games and we like rewarding them. That's 253 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: kind of what we're looking for with comeback Player of 254 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: the Year. 255 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 2: In terms of the top of the board, just looking 256 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 2: at the people who are favorite, and it kind of 257 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 2: goes back to your injury concern, at least from the 258 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 2: year before. The favorite Hutchinson, Then you've got Christian McCaffrey, 259 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, JJ McCarthy. Those are the only 260 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 2: players listed under twenty to one. So with that being said, 261 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 2: are they the right favorites and what other options might 262 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 2: you give? 263 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 1: I think they're the right favorites, but I don't think 264 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: that means you should bet them. So let me explain 265 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: what that means. Only one defender has ever won this award. 266 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: Hutchinson's still coming back from injury and dominated, but in 267 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: a pretty small sample last year, three to one for 268 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: a defender. When that's not who wins this award, I 269 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: can't get there. Only one running back has ever won 270 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: the award. That's probably a surprising thing, but it makes 271 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: sense to think about it. Running Backs of shorter shelf lives, 272 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 1: and once you get that first big injury, it's hard 273 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: to ever get back to that level. Again. That sucks 274 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,559 Speaker 1: because I really like McCaffrey for this award. He seems 275 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: like a guy I'd like to invest in. I'm high 276 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: on the Niners, but at four to one, hard to 277 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: back an award that doesn't go to running backs usually, 278 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 1: Dak and Lawrence make all sorts of sense. They definitely 279 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: should be in the mix here. Remember, we need a 280 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: team that goes over five hundred. See if you want 281 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: to bud the Cowboys or the Jaguars, not just these guys. 282 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,319 Speaker 1: You need the narrative, you need the winning boosts. So 283 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm too excited there. I do have 284 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: those two ann McCaffrey in my top five, just personally, 285 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: not as bets, but as most likely to win. But 286 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: there's two other names I'm gonna give you, one to 287 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: bet and one that we can't even bet yet. Because 288 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: a weird thing about this award is you mentioned Flaco 289 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: Gino Smith won this three years ago. Alex Smith won 290 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: it five years ago. Those guys didn't even have odds 291 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: to start the season. There were anyone's supposed to be 292 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: starting to start the season. So there are guys who 293 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: are unlisted right now who might become candidates here. For example, 294 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: why isn't Aaron Rodgers have odds anywhere? Dude is forty 295 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: something and towards Achilles a year ago. If he is 296 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: a great season and the Steelers go like thirteen and four, 297 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: why not Aaron Rodgers? What about Matt Stafford for the Rams, 298 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: who's literally right now coming back from an injury that 299 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 1: could be career threatening. What about Gotta do It my 300 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz Jersey. What if he steps in for the 301 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 1: Vikings that he's the new Sam Darnold to lead them 302 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: out of thirteen wins or something like that. Helpout Ricky 303 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: Pearsol not a quarterback but literally get shot during training 304 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: camp last year and now could be the top receiver 305 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: for the Niners. None of those guys are bettable, so 306 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 1: I can you recommend them as bets to you right now, 307 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: but they're on my radar. And those guys in this 308 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: specific award have come through the one name you can 309 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: bet in my one bet here to a Taigabailoa. And 310 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: now this sounds crazy, but he's thirty five to one 311 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: and I think he belongs right in that mix with 312 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: dak and Trevor Lawrence very similar profile. Because yes, I'm 313 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: worried that Tua won't stay healthy. Duh, that's the whole thing. 314 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: We know. But if he does, he's paced for forty 315 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: five hundred yards and thirty touchdowns and he has a 316 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: winning record on the field all three seasons under Mike McDaniel. 317 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: We know he'll be good. We know the offense will 318 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: be good. We just need him to actually be healthy. 319 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: So this is not a bat on. Will he be 320 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: good enough? Will the Dolphins win? 321 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 2: No. 322 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: If he plays and is out there, all the rest 323 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: is fine. We just need him to play. I don't 324 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: think he will. But it's thirty five to one, not 325 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: five to one and three to one like the other guys. 326 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: So Tua is my bad here just a half unit 327 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: on it and then just a tiny long shot. I 328 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: know it's a defender, but one hundred and fifty to one, 329 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: Dray greenlaw just in case. Denver is just flying around 330 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: the field, and this like iconic number one defense and 331 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: he's at the heart of everything. Everybody saw him get 332 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: hurt in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago 333 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: at one hundred and fifty one. I good to see 334 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: him having a moment and maybe giving us a chance 335 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: to build a position. So Tua thirty five to one, 336 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: and it's a nibble on green Law at all hundred 337 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: fifty to lot. 338 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 2: So I like the to a bet. I will say, 339 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 2: I think you're looking for the flyer that shows up 340 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: in the middle of the season more than you are 341 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 2: trying to bet the guy. Now. I mean the fact 342 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 2: that we've had Flacco two fifty, Tannehill at like one 343 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty, and Gino at one hundred and fifty. Like, 344 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 2: these guys tend to come off the board and kind 345 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 2: of create their own story because it's a narrative award. 346 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 2: So I think watching your tweets, your bets in the 347 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 2: app and trying to figure that out a few weeks 348 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 2: in mid season tends to be probably the least lucrative 349 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 2: way to look at this. It's quarterbacks. They've won seven 350 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 2: in a row, so I get that's probably where this 351 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 2: is going to be coming from. I thought about Rogers 352 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 2: as well, and again, the injury narrative kind of changes 353 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 2: what this could be like Fields richardson Caleb, you know, 354 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 2: it's you know, people coming off bad years, but that's 355 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 2: not what they're trying to go for here, So I 356 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: think with that being said, you've got the right look 357 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 2: at this. The only one I'll say, like Godwin wash Rice, Yeah, 358 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: like sort of coming on injuries, which Rahi Rice actually 359 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 2: could make some sense. He might get more playing time 360 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 2: and be in that offense. 361 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: But to me, I mentioned those two in Brandon Ayuk 362 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: in the article, it's tough because for Ayuk and Godwin, 363 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: we're not even getting them to start this season. So 364 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: for starters at least, don't bet it now because in 365 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: three four weeks you're bound to get a better number. 366 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: That's longer, but you also are just not getting enough 367 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 1: stats that way, like you're it's not a stats necessarily award, 368 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: but we want production, and probably what we're gonna get 369 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: is like a third of the season no games, then 370 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: a third of the season where you're playing but like 371 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,479 Speaker 1: not as good as you're supposed to be because you're 372 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 1: still working your way back, and then you get the 373 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: final third we look really good, maybe in time to 374 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: make a push, but I feel like it's a little 375 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 1: too hard for me to get there with Rahi Rice. Obviously, 376 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: there are let's call them, other concerns. I don't know 377 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: if I see voting for Rashi Rice to win this 378 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: award given what's happening with him off the field. So yeah, 379 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: I don't mind the receivers, but I'm probably gonna stick 380 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 1: with quarterbacks and kind of, you know, just barely wade 381 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 1: into the water here. 382 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 2: Agree. I kind of like Jimmy g but he's not 383 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 2: really coming back from anything at all. And the one, 384 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 2: the other one I guess I would say is like 385 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 2: Cooper cup. I mean, we would keep talking about quarterbacks, 386 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 2: but he's like seventy five to one range. Like if 387 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 2: he started to play well with Sam and Seahawks looked 388 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 2: better than expected, maybe he would get some love. No surprises, folks. 389 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 2: NFL season kicks off in just a matter of days. 390 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 2: That's why we're doing this Awards pod. So get the 391 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 2: most out of your award winning Action Network app. You'll 392 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 2: want an Action Pro subscription because only Pro subscribers get 393 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 2: real time pick alerts from experts like Brandon Anderson, myself, 394 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 2: our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access our 395 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 2: pro projections powered by Sean Kerner, and a ton of 396 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 2: other benefits. To celebrate football's return, we've got a special offer. 397 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 2: Just go to actionework dot Com slash Pro get twenty 398 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: dollars off the annual price with the promo code POD 399 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 2: twenty POD twenty. So don't miss out on the best 400 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 2: bets at the best prices. Visit actionework dot com slash 401 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 2: pro and use promo code po D twenty to get 402 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 2: twenty dollars off a year of action Pro. Next category here, 403 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 2: we're going to talk about Coach of the Year and 404 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 2: then we're gonna get into Assistant Coach of the Year. 405 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 2: Yeah you heard me, But we're gonna start with Coach 406 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 2: of the Year. Your vikings Kevin O'Connell won this award 407 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 2: last year, went from seven to ten to three and 408 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 2: thirteen and four with Sam Darnold basically last three year 409 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 2: winners before that Stefanski Dable Vrabel. So in your eyes, 410 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 2: I mean, aside from the odds, which I can talk 411 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:48,719 Speaker 2: about in a second, Like, what are you looking for 412 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: with this award? 413 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm disappointed with this award, but obviously 414 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: I'm excited about my guy koc winning it. This used 415 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 1: to be one of my favorite awards to bat but 416 00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 1: in the last few years as quickly be coming on 417 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: at least tw Ritz here's the problem. Only thirty two 418 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,959 Speaker 1: people can win this, and based on history, I think 419 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: we're gonna rule out about half of those people. So 420 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: that sounds good. We're down to like fifteen possible winners. 421 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: The problem is, if you look at each season based 422 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: on the criteria I'm about to get to, you still 423 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 1: get like five possible winners at the end. Like last year, 424 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 1: Koc wins, but who didn't win? Then Sean Payton who 425 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: takes a bone Necks rookie quarterback and gets the playoffs. 426 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh too, you know, first year coach comes in 427 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: and turns them into the playoffs. They don't win, even 428 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 1: though they're gonna fit every profile we're talking about here. 429 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: And so the problem is you've got to be right 430 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 1: about your sleeper and you still have to kind of 431 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: like hit the right narrative that we don't know is 432 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: necessarily gonna come. There's no reason Peyton or Harbaugh or 433 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,199 Speaker 1: some other guys won't have won last year. So that said, 434 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: what are we looking for. You gotta win a lot 435 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: of games, You gotta improve a lot from last year, 436 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: and I think the narrative portion. The best we can 437 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: do is you got to beat your over under, you 438 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 1: gotta beat expectations, right, So here's the numbers. Last ten 439 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: winners of Coach of the Year. Nine of the ten 440 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: won at least eleven games, so that's the floor you 441 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 1: gotta win eleven. Nine of the ten went up at 442 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: least four wins from the previous year, so you got 443 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: to improve. And then thirteen of our last fifteen beat 444 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: their over under by at least two and a half wins. 445 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: So ideally we want to coach that last year the 446 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: team won about four to seven games. This year they're 447 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: over under is right around five hundred seven and a 448 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: half nine and a half somewhere in that range. We 449 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: want them to jump four more wins into eleven plus wins, 450 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: hopefully into the playoffs most of the time. So that's 451 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: the profile. Football is ball, though, so we get a 452 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 1: bunch of those teams each year, and that's what makes 453 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 1: it tricky. 454 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 2: And I think the issue is the odds kind of 455 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 2: marry the storyline, which it didn't a few years ago, 456 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 2: and you mentioned it off the top, like it used 457 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 2: to be, you'd find guys in the let's call it 458 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 2: twenty to thirty range that had those lower win totals 459 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 2: that everyone was like, Oh, they're gonna stink, and people 460 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 2: like yourself, like a bunch of other betters would be like, Okay, 461 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 2: well I see them at least getting to five hundred, 462 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,679 Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden, you turn around, they 463 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: win one or two more games and their Coach of 464 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,479 Speaker 2: the Year for what they've done to the team that 465 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 2: had bad preseason expectations. So at least I think that's 466 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 2: what it is. But those guys are now the favorites. 467 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 2: So I have a different way of kind of looking 468 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 2: at this, which maybe I hope this award kind of 469 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 2: turns into. But why don't you go with the name. 470 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 2: So the names at the top, Ben Johnson's the favorite, 471 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 2: Then you got Rabel at second about seven fifty eight 472 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,959 Speaker 2: to one, then Liam Cohen, Aaron Glenn about ten to one, 473 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 2: eleven to one, and then you've got Pete Carroll, Mike McDonald, Kanalis, 474 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 2: and Gannon all about fourteen to one. So kind of 475 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 2: talk about some of those options and then if not them, 476 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 2: where do you see the guys kind of in the 477 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 2: next range. 478 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, so you nailed at that. It seem like not 479 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,919 Speaker 1: too many years ago we'd open up the odds for 480 00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: coach of the Year, and it'd be like, oh, you 481 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 1: know who's a good coach? Reid and Mike Tomlin and 482 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh, and those would be all the favorites. It's like, no, no, no, 483 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: that's not who wins this award. Again, you have to 484 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: win games, but you have to win games when we 485 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: didn't think you were going to. It's like, it's like 486 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: a trick on ourselves. And what's interesting here is so 487 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 1: books have caught up. These are the right favorites. Frankly, 488 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: of course I like Ben Johnson, daw I'm high on 489 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: the Bears at everything we've talked about, so yes, of 490 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: course that should be my pick. But now it's priced 491 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: in and picks are about value, and I don't think 492 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: there's a lot of value here, and I'm already invested 493 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 1: in Bears Island Division. I don't think I need more investments. 494 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 1: Kind of doubling down the same thing. I will note too, 495 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: we like first year coaches to win this award. That's 496 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: who you just named off Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn Pete, Carroll, 497 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: Mike Rabel. Again, they've caught on to what's winning that 498 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 1: Six of the last fourteen have been first year coaches 499 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: with their team only one of four. Though one thing 500 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 1: to note, seven of the last nine winners here were 501 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: offensive minded. Code if you kind of have to classify 502 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: every coach as either offense or defensive minded. So we 503 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 1: like offense. That makes sense in modern football. Point for 504 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: Ben Johnson as well. So Ben Johnson I think is 505 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: the right favorite Rabel second. I put Pete Carroll third. 506 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 1: These all fit. We've talked about it already. They're all 507 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: teams that have a lot of reason to be improving. 508 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 1: They all fit the formula. The Bears one to five 509 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,719 Speaker 1: last year, the Patriots and Raiders won four. They're all 510 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: kind of in that middle range of expectations. Here's the problem. 511 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: You might have this in your note as well, But 512 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: I've noticed that I believe the last ten Coach of 513 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: the Year winners started the season at plus eighteen hundred 514 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 1: or longer. So I'm wonder if there's a hidden fourth 515 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 1: criteria You've got to beat the improvement expectations too. We 516 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 1: already think Ben Johnson's team is going to improve. I've 517 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: been talking about him for three weeks and so as 518 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 1: everyone else. We already think the Patriots are going to 519 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: be good. They're already improving. They won four, they're over 520 00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 1: unders eight and a half. We already think they're supposed 521 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: to improve. So now you've got to beat the improvement 522 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: expectations by even more. The Patriots are gonna have to 523 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: win like twelve or thirteen games and really blow expectations 524 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 1: away to get here. So I think they've got three 525 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: of the right favorites. I'm gonna kind of go wonky 526 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: on this award, and I'm gonna go give you who 527 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 1: are my fourth and fifth favorite, but not by odds. 528 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 1: I'm gonna kind of play contrarion. I've learned as a 529 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: better especially in the futures, sometimes it's not a bad 530 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 1: idea to bet against yourself, even if there's a position 531 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: you feel strongly about. Maybe you swerve and say, well, 532 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: what if I'm wrong, If I'm wrong in this way, 533 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 1: what happens there? And I say that because my first 534 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: bet for Coach of the Year is Brian Schottenheimer and 535 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys staff, who I ranked dead last in 536 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 1: my coaching rankings just still week ago on this podcast. 537 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 1: Here's the case. First year coach offensive minded, not an 538 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 1: offense live like, but he's offensive minded. Is an easy narrative. 539 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: It's it's America's team. They stunk last year, but they 540 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 1: won twelve games three years in a row before that. 541 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 1: We know about the NFC East champion. You never repeat 542 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: like two decades now, he's thirty to one. That's the case. 543 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: Thirty to one is where I started. Here is like, Okay, 544 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: all the guys you named are the other first year coaches, 545 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: and they're all like six to one and ten to 546 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,880 Speaker 1: one and fourteen to one. I don't think the Cowboys 547 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 1: are going to be that good. But if I'm wrong, 548 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: the NFL's weird, weird stuff happens. Shoanheimer thirty to one, 549 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,679 Speaker 1: and then I'm staying in the state. This one. I 550 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:40,679 Speaker 1: genuinely love Demiko Ryans sixty five to one. This is 551 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: my best bet here, full unit on Demiko. I actually 552 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 1: wonder if people might be sleeping a little bit on 553 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: the Texas. This is my number one defense, they're my 554 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,719 Speaker 1: number one special teams, and I personally am down on 555 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: the offense. They're my dead last offensive line. They weren't 556 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,879 Speaker 1: that great last year. But what if I'm wrong, What 557 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: if the defense has spent teams and coaching are that good? 558 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: And what if Nick Keeley and the offense are pretty good. 559 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: What if they get the offensive line like kind of 560 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 1: blow average, and suddenly the run game is okay, and 561 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: suddenly c just strout is better, and you know, everything 562 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 1: elevates with the offense, and you're already have a great 563 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,160 Speaker 1: defense and you already have great special teams. In coaching 564 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: in a terrible division, we all want the sleeper in 565 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:23,479 Speaker 1: the division because we know the division's bad. What if 566 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: the sleeper is Houston. I think they're gonna have to 567 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 1: win the one seed to get this because you're gonna 568 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 1: have to beat out Mahomes, Lamar and Josh Allen. We 569 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: get to play them, so you get some big marquee games. 570 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 1: And I think that there's an easy narrative here as 571 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 1: this like kind of three year quote lifetime achievement for Demiko, 572 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: where you're like, man, look at the Texans who are 573 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: a two win team three years ago, and here they are. 574 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 1: They beat out all the best of the best in 575 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 1: the AFC CJ start MVP. Not quite yet. How about 576 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 1: Demiko for Coach of the Year sixty five to one? 577 00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:59,120 Speaker 1: He's my favorite here. 578 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you nailed on a bunch of stuff here. First, 579 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 2: year head coach with Schottenheimer, thirty to one feels long 580 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 2: and kind of goes with the list of everyone else. 581 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 2: And yeah, maybe we may not love Dallas, but I 582 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 2: think it's a good option for the price. I think 583 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 2: you nailed it with Demiko. It was on my list 584 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 2: as well. It just feels way too long for again, 585 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 2: a top defense, an offense that we think can be 586 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 2: there a terrible division. And you can look at it 587 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 2: two ways. They start in the Rams, so they lose 588 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 2: the game, the price gets longer, awesome, but the first 589 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 2: four games if they beat the Rams also pretty easy. 590 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 2: They could start four and zero. So I like taking 591 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 2: the sixty five to one. Now I'm completely with it. 592 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 2: Let me just flip this is this category on its 593 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 2: head for one second and just I want to hear 594 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,479 Speaker 2: your thoughts. So the other way to look at it 595 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 2: is the odds have moved way too far in one 596 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 2: direction and they've figured out who wins the award. But 597 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 2: at some point, what if it turns into a legacy 598 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 2: awards like Andy Reid hasn't won since two thousand and two, 599 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 2: he's won once. Like case is I think five to 600 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 2: one to win the one seed, he's seventy five to 601 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 2: one hundred to one to win this award. I'm not 602 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 2: saying he's going to do it, but it feels like 603 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 2: the difference in price is interesting. So Mike Tomlin thirty 604 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 2: to one, he's never won this award. I'll go through 605 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 2: a few just one seed prices and Coach of the 606 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 2: Year prices. Sirianni plus three fifty seventy five to one. McDermot, 607 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 2: he's two to one. He's fifty to one to win 608 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 2: Coach of the Year. You know, I think there is 609 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,959 Speaker 2: an opportunity potentially on some of these teams that we 610 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 2: know we're going to be very good now. They need 611 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 2: the one seed, maybe even some of them, they need 612 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 2: the best record in the NFL. They need to lose 613 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 2: two games, three games. But you're kind of asking for 614 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 2: it with the other price, and some of them haven't 615 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 2: won it. So that was the way I looked at it. 616 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: But thoughts, yeah, no, I think it's really interesting and 617 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: I definitely looked at that angle as well. I think 618 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 1: Tomlin is the name I was going to bring up here. 619 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: I think what you want is I don't know that 620 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 1: and get there on like an Andy Reid or Sirianni, 621 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: because if it's Andy Reid, it's just Patrick Mahomes with 622 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: the awards, you all run out, who's gonna get credit? 623 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 1: What's the story that we're gonna tell of? Why is 624 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 1: this team so good? And Andy's always gonna be part 625 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 1: of the story, but I don't think he can be 626 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 1: the whole story. It almost has to be Andy Reid 627 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: goes fifteen to two, but Mames missed a month. Okay, great, 628 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: but I don't want to bet on that anymore. So 629 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: it's harm Whin. It's like, Okay, Tomlin won but with 630 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers and the defense, and he did all the 631 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 1: Timelin stuff again, Okay, sure, Kyle Shanahan, they only won 632 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 1: six last year, and it's Brock Perdy, who we still 633 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 1: think sucks for some reason, but they won thirteen or fourteen, Okay, sure. 634 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 1: So I think you have to be able to tell 635 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: the story. And with some of these guys, you know, 636 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 1: Josh Allen's coach, Lamar's coach, Patrick's like, you can't have 637 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: the superstar quarterbacker players because they're gonna get credit on 638 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 1: the field. So I think it's an interesting swerve, but 639 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,479 Speaker 1: you almost have to. It's got to be because all 640 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: the teams we already think are good are just who's 641 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 1: good again. It's another year of the favorites and there 642 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: isn't that sleeper team, and then maybe it's the legacy 643 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 1: award for one of those, but historically that's not who's 644 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 1: been winning it. So I don't mind it because the 645 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 1: odds are so long, but I think it's you know, 646 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: we may have to see one like it before I 647 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: can get too excited to bet at that direction. 648 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 2: I appreciate you taking the swerve into my lane for 649 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 2: a second, but I also think the angle as we 650 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 2: go into Assistant Coach of the Year is kind of 651 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 2: comparing head coach and assistant coach in terms of odds, 652 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 2: because I do think it is about who's getting the credit. 653 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 2: So let's talk about Assistant Coach of the Year, which 654 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 2: is not a new It's not a new award. This 655 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 2: award has been out there. It's just new because we've 656 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 2: never seen it in the legal betting space. So it 657 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 2: is a new award for us to gamble on right now. 658 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:46,479 Speaker 2: So we are going to break it down for you. 659 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 2: So go step by step here, take us through the criteria. 660 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 2: Some of the recent winners. 661 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, so Todd Bowles as our first winner Arizona defensive 662 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: coordinator Todd Bowles back in twenty fourteen. So that's the 663 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: sample we have basically a decade of here. Our guy 664 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: Ben Johnson is the winner last year offensive corner for 665 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 1: the Lions. Demiko we just talked about he woned a 666 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 1: few years ago. Jim Schwartz for the Browns. In between, 667 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:11,720 Speaker 1: these are the sort of guys that are winning it. 668 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: It's either kind of your up and coming guy Ben 669 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 1: and Demiko or a lot of times we do get 670 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: sort of I'm gonna say it gently, but the Faield 671 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: head coach who comes back as the coordinator and does 672 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: a really good job there. So we have eleven years 673 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: of data. We've had five offense, six defensive coordinators, so 674 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 1: no real read there a little more defense lately. I'm 675 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: not sure. I think it's go either way offense or defense. 676 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,280 Speaker 1: Similar coach of the year. You gotta win, you gotta improve. 677 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: They're averaging twelve and a half wins, and remember some 678 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: of these are on sixteen game schedules still, so probably 679 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: thirteen wins and three and a half wins over the 680 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 1: previous season. Every one of these guys their teams won 681 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 1: at least as many as last year. So it's not 682 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: again just because we're continuing to play great defense or offense, 683 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,640 Speaker 1: you got to improve. This is like another way to 684 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: recognize those coaches. Eight of the eleven winners are in 685 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 1: their first two years as the coordinator, almost half were 686 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 1: in their first year. Four of those five are that 687 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 1: kind of faield head coach situation. And then the last 688 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: thing is these guys are averaging a top five finish 689 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: in points per game for their unit, but about eleven 690 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 1: spots lower for the other units. So you'd love ideally 691 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 1: like a team that's a great offense but an average 692 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 1: defense and they win like twelve games, or vice versa 693 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 1: defense to offense. So that's the setup. There's a lot 694 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: of names here because assuming coordinators, we got sixty four names. 695 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:37,920 Speaker 1: So where do we even start? 696 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think let's just go through the odds 697 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 2: at the top because I just think it's interesting. Nonetheless, 698 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,880 Speaker 2: who gets listed there with so many names? So the 699 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 2: favorite is vanced Joseph, and then you've got Flores and 700 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 2: Sala right below him at eight to one, Vance Joseph 701 00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 2: at six to one, Fangio's at nine to one, then 702 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,479 Speaker 2: you've got Wilkes at eleven to one, eber Flus at 703 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 2: fourteen to one, and QB at sixteen to one. So 704 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 2: those are basically your top units in terms of I 705 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 2: think it's the team, but I also think it's the name, 706 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 2: which I'll talk about in a second. When you get 707 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,880 Speaker 2: to Okay, well who's the quarterback? How good could this 708 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 2: team be? And like, oh, yeah, that's the offensive coordinator. 709 00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 2: So I think it kind of needs to marry together 710 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 2: a little bit. So on that list, who do you like? 711 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:23,760 Speaker 2: And then you can go into who you're betting? 712 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, so you name six people, I'm gonna give you six, 713 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:28,439 Speaker 1: but I'm going to only include half of your names. 714 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: I think those first three you said are three of 715 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,439 Speaker 1: the right six Vance Joseph, Brian Flores, Robert Sala, all 716 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:38,080 Speaker 1: three guys previously head coaches, All three guys no longer 717 00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: head coaches. They're leading great defenses. They're all defense that 718 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 1: we everybody expects to be pretty good. So there's a 719 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 1: lot to like there. But remember, Denver, Minnesota won a 720 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: lot of games last year, and the data tells us 721 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: you've got to win more games and you got to 722 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,319 Speaker 1: improve and surprise us a little bit, So that's not 723 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 1: great for those guys, Robert Sala. They only won six 724 00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:00,400 Speaker 1: last year in San fran But we want lopsided unit, 725 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,879 Speaker 1: and we know Sam Franz offense is the good unit, 726 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: not the defense. I don't love that with him there. 727 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 1: I think those are right to be in the top six. 728 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: I can't bet them at the short odds. Here are 729 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 1: the other three names of my top six. I'm gonna 730 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 1: bet a quarter or a half union all three of them. 731 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 1: Again swerving a little bit here, our guy Cliff Kingsbury 732 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,360 Speaker 1: twenty eight to one for Washington. I think it's just 733 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,799 Speaker 1: a great way to invest in the Commanders. I don't 734 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,279 Speaker 1: mind investing a quarter unit in a team I don't 735 00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 1: really like because I could be wrong, and he's a 736 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 1: year or two offensive coordinator's kind of got that post 737 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,280 Speaker 1: failure narrative. We see him doing some new things, establishing 738 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,520 Speaker 1: a great run game, and it checks out. Top five defense, 739 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,240 Speaker 1: maybe bottom fires, top five offense, maybe bottom five defense. 740 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: So if they do play well, it's gotta be him. 741 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,960 Speaker 1: I think it's maybe too soon for Jane Daniels MVP. 742 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,640 Speaker 1: We'll get into that on the other podcast, but I 743 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 1: think rewarding Cliff would be a great way to recognize 744 00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,760 Speaker 1: a good commander's season. That's a good fit here twenty 745 00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,879 Speaker 1: eight to one. Jesse Minter, Chargers defensive guy thirty three 746 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,800 Speaker 1: to one. Another second year coordinator fits, while there another 747 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 1: one where it's like, okay, Rayshawn Slater is hurt on 748 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:10,000 Speaker 1: the offensive line. Could the defense be really good again? 749 00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 1: They kend of did some funky stuff and pulled off 750 00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,640 Speaker 1: this weirdly good pass defense last year. I'm not sure 751 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 1: I believe in it, but maybe Minter is doing some 752 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 1: crazy stuff. Could he get credit and not Jim Harbaugh. 753 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,239 Speaker 1: I don't know, but Minter is one of those names 754 00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 1: you hear buzzed about as a possible head coach someday. 755 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 1: Maybe he's that guy thirty three to one and my 756 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,399 Speaker 1: favorite of the bunch and actually my number one out 757 00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,440 Speaker 1: of all of these guys. Zach Robinson for the Falcons 758 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator again, year two guy, all three of these guys, 759 00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,560 Speaker 1: he's sixty to one. I think Atlanta sets up really 760 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: nicely here where the defense is not gonna be good, 761 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,680 Speaker 1: but the division sucks. It's terrible and wide open. Atlanta's 762 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,480 Speaker 1: gonna have a soft schedule, they won eight, What if 763 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 1: they get to twelve wins because that offense just explodes 764 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: this year. You're gonna get credit for Michael Pennix, you're 765 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,919 Speaker 1: basically rookie quarterback. You're gonna have this great, beautiful run 766 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 1: game that Zach Robinson I already had them doing last year. 767 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 1: Now I like this a little less after the news 768 00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,120 Speaker 1: that Caleb McGarry, the right tackle has heard they're down 769 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 1: two linemen now from last with Dolmandghn as well. But again, 770 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 1: I think this is a really good way to invest 771 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 1: in Atlanta, who is a team with a long tail upside, 772 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,400 Speaker 1: even if it's not what I believe in. If it hits, 773 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 1: it's gotta be the offense. And if it's the offense, 774 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 1: hot young coordinator possible next to Ben Johnson type Zach Robinson, 775 00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 1: maybe he's the guy that gets credit. So I'll go 776 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 1: half unit on Zach Robinson sixty to one, and then 777 00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 1: a quarter unit sprinkle on Cliff and Minter at their 778 00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:35,800 Speaker 1: long odds. 779 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 2: I liked the Zach Robinson but probably the most. He 780 00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 2: was at basically the top of my list understanding the 781 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 2: lineman issue. But consider what we believe that offense can be. 782 00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 2: I think there's a high upside with the price. My 783 00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,439 Speaker 2: issue with Washington is so I like Kingsbury at like, say, 784 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:57,520 Speaker 2: thirty to one versus Quinn at forty to one. I 785 00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:00,520 Speaker 2: think if it's Kingsbury, he's more like to win that 786 00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 2: award than Dan Quinn. Is My worry is how many 787 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,799 Speaker 2: games Washington would have to win based off of what 788 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,239 Speaker 2: they did last year to basically get him noticed after 789 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:13,000 Speaker 2: they he was noticed last year is kind of that's 790 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 2: a little difficulty in my brand. The other name, I think. 791 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,879 Speaker 2: The other thing I think that's kind of interesting when 792 00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,400 Speaker 2: you look at this is you can talk about people 793 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,759 Speaker 2: and I just have a large list year of names. 794 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,840 Speaker 2: But I think it's worth noting that, like Adam Stenovich 795 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,359 Speaker 2: is the offensive coordinator for green Bay, we expect green 796 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,640 Speaker 2: Bay's offense to be really, really good. But he's two 797 00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 2: hundred to one. But no one really knows the name, 798 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,360 Speaker 2: so he's probably not involved in this conversation. So I 799 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 2: think when you go unit by unit and you ask yourself, well, 800 00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,200 Speaker 2: are they going to be really good? Yes, well, no 801 00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 2: one knows the name, he's probably not gonna win. An 802 00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:49,880 Speaker 2: interesting exercise. I'll just call it like Cincinnati. Dan Pitcher 803 00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 2: offensive coordinator, he's two hundred to one as well. You know, 804 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,279 Speaker 2: Burrough could win MVP. They could be the best unit. 805 00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 2: Cincinnati's defense could be terrible as usual. But are we 806 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:00,919 Speaker 2: going to know the name at the end of the year. 807 00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,160 Speaker 2: I don't know, but I find the price kind of intriguing. 808 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,440 Speaker 1: I think the main thing what you're kind of hinting 809 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,319 Speaker 1: at and what we talked about a little bit, you 810 00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,719 Speaker 1: look at the team and say, Okay, good things happen 811 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,960 Speaker 1: for the team. Who gets credit? Who is the media 812 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 1: giving credit to? And with Washington, it's probably not Dan 813 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 1: Quinn because Dan Quinn's a defense guy, and the defense 814 00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,480 Speaker 1: is not going to be the story. It's the offense. 815 00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,200 Speaker 1: So maybe it's just Jane Daniels. That probably is true, 816 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,600 Speaker 1: But maybe it's Cliff If it's the Falcons, it's got 817 00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,319 Speaker 1: to be the offense. And so Wereheem Morris more of 818 00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:34,800 Speaker 1: a defense guy, can't be him? Maybe is it Pennix? Well, 819 00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,200 Speaker 1: you know what about the you know, the coaches that 820 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,080 Speaker 1: we're talking about usually not giving the award to a 821 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,640 Speaker 1: top quarterback. That's why Burrow is going to be getting 822 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: the credit, not Dan Pitcher, even though I like Dan 823 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,000 Speaker 1: Pitcher and what they're doing. So with Atlanta, Okay, we're 824 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 1: probably not going to give Michael Pennix the same sort 825 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 1: of credit that Joe Burrow gets. So where do we 826 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,799 Speaker 1: give credit to it? Maybe if Offensive Player of the 827 00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 1: Year for Bijon or Drake those would be interesting names 828 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:00,840 Speaker 1: as well. We'll get to that in a few minutes. 829 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,200 Speaker 1: But I think just thinking about, Okay, what if this 830 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,680 Speaker 1: team is good, what's the story that everybody is telling 831 00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,879 Speaker 1: and who gets credit for that story? And really that's 832 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,320 Speaker 1: the story of the podcast today is me saying, Okay, 833 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,200 Speaker 1: I'm gonna come out of here with bets on like 834 00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,520 Speaker 1: twenty teams that they're a good version? Well, how do 835 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 1: I bet the good version of them? And that's what 836 00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:21,760 Speaker 1: we're trying to identify it today. 837 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,560 Speaker 2: One more before we move on Houston. Nick Cayley's forty 838 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,480 Speaker 2: to one on offense, Matt Birk's fifty to one on defense. 839 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,399 Speaker 2: Why not just take Dimico at sixty five to one? 840 00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,560 Speaker 2: Like to me that you kind of look at the prices, 841 00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,680 Speaker 2: you say, Okay, those two units are gonna be great, 842 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,359 Speaker 2: but I like the Demico price better, so I pass 843 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,280 Speaker 2: on the others. It's at least the way I looked. 844 00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,400 Speaker 1: At it makes sense to me. 845 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:46,520 Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. That was part one of our 846 00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 2: NFL Awards episode. Part two will be out soon. My 847 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,120 Speaker 2: thanks to Brandon for joining me. So I mentioned off 848 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,279 Speaker 2: the top, we will have another episode diving specifically into 849 00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 2: the MVP market, so we will go over a lot 850 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,600 Speaker 2: of names, make some case. That'll be a lot of fun, 851 00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,919 Speaker 2: So do not miss that one, as well as much 852 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,840 Speaker 2: more NFL betting content in the days and weeks and 853 00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,120 Speaker 2: months during the season. To come check out Brandon's articles 854 00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:11,840 Speaker 2: as it does a deep dive into each of the 855 00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,759 Speaker 2: awards market this week at actionnetwork dot com. Do not 856 00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,680 Speaker 2: forget to download the award winning Action Network app if 857 00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,800 Speaker 2: you haven't yet used promo code Pod twenty for twenty 858 00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:27,239 Speaker 2: dollars off a year of Action Pro. Best of luck 859 00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,440 Speaker 2: on all your bets. We will see you back here 860 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:34,000 Speaker 2: next time on the Action Network podcast. I'm Evan Abrams. 861 00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:53,360 Speaker 2: That's Brandon Anderson. Enjoy your rewards, everybody. Action Network reminds 862 00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,239 Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care 863 00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,320 Speaker 2: about has a gambling problem, help is available to twenty 864 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,400 Speaker 2: four seven at one eight hundred gambler