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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet, splendid six sing just glorious extcution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up.

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Speaker 4: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The wall. It's left too. The wide eyed drill refuge,

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Speaker 1: how old ear pick happen?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome back to this live edition of

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Speaker 3: Wonder Goal. This is a World Cup betting preview.

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Speaker 2: From the Action Network. My name is Michael Ebuff.

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Speaker 3: In just a moment, I will be joined by my

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Speaker 3: co host, my compadres, my betting heroes, BJ Cunningham and

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Speaker 3: Anthony Dubundo, and together the three of us will break

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Speaker 3: down all eight round of sixteen matches, pick out some

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Speaker 3: of our best bets, and then we'll get out of

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Speaker 3: here and get ourselves prepared for Saturday mornings kickoff between

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Speaker 3: the Netherlands and the United States. But before I bring

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Speaker 3: in those two handsome gentlemen. A reminder. Wonder Goal is

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Speaker 3: presented by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 3: Sign up with promo code action to get Bet three

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Speaker 3: six fives exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado.

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Speaker 3: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred free.

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Speaker 3: All right, my brother's in betting BJ, Anthony. Unfortunately, we

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Speaker 3: had to say goodbye to sixteen World Cup teams, so

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Speaker 3: we still have sixteen left and we'll whittle that down

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Speaker 3: to eight. But before we do, we got to break

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Speaker 3: this thing down. And we're gonna start with our favorite

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Speaker 3: bets for the round of sixteen, and we're gonna start

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Speaker 3: with you BJ coming to us live from Iowa.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I like France minus one and a half.

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Speaker 5: At minus one fifteen, they were probably the most impressive

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Speaker 5: team of the group stage. They created six point seven

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Speaker 5: expected goals against Australia and Denmark, essentially the two matches

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Speaker 5: where they played a full lineup, and then against Niche they

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Speaker 5: obviously lost. They were rotating a bunch of guys they

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Speaker 5: didn't really need to win the match, so I kind

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Speaker 5: of throw that one out the window. What they did

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Speaker 5: such a good job of against Australia because that's the

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Speaker 5: best comparison here, right, Because Poland is going to stay

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Speaker 5: very compact. They're going to play a low block similar

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Speaker 5: to what Australia did, although Australia is a little more

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Speaker 5: aggressive in that low block in terms of their pressing

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Speaker 5: and Bope and Theoharnandez on the left side playing a

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Speaker 5: lot of two v ones, creating a lot of overloads.

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Speaker 1: Creeseman was allowed to roam the pitch. They created.

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Speaker 5: Those overloads on the left side of the pitch just

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Speaker 5: gave Australia a bunch of fits and that's why you

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Speaker 5: saw Mbope just creating chance after a chance after a chance,

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Speaker 5: and then they absolutely just paced to Denmark. So I

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Speaker 5: have no reason to believe why they should not pacete

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Speaker 5: this Poland team, who I think is the worst team

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Speaker 5: to make the Round of sixteen. Against Argentina and against Mexico,

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Speaker 5: they created point six non penalty expected goals. They took

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Speaker 5: eight shots and they had fourteen touches in the penalty area.

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Speaker 5: Like we've been saying forever, it's Lewandowski or nothing. They're

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Speaker 5: just going to send long balls up to him and

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Speaker 5: I hope for the best in France has one of

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Speaker 5: the best defensive midfielders in the entire world in Schumni,

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Speaker 5: who should be able to stop any type of counterattack

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Speaker 5: that Poland's going to throw at them.

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Speaker 1: They've Poland's just basically been riding.

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Speaker 5: Jesney's coat tails, and he put up a great performance

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Speaker 5: against Argentina, but he's way over due to concede. So

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Speaker 5: I like France to absolutely just paste Poland and get

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Speaker 5: to the quarterfinals to set up a great, great matchup

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Speaker 5: with England.

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Speaker 1: So France minus one and a half for me is

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Speaker 1: my best bet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, France is a team that think all three of

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Speaker 3: us relative to the market, we're kind of down on

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Speaker 3: coming into the tournament.

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Speaker 2: We've start to change our tune a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But one team that Anthony, you're not changing your tune

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Speaker 3: about the Portuguese host Navigadories.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I was sitting around this afternoon just

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Speaker 4: kind of praying for this spot, praying.

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Speaker 2: For the Swiss to get through.

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Speaker 4: They looked a little dicey there early on, conceded twice

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Speaker 4: in a row to Serbia, went down to one, but

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Speaker 4: got through, went up, won the match.

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Speaker 2: Really encouraged, not even just with.

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Speaker 4: The fact that they beat Serbia, but how you know,

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Speaker 4: alive Their attack looked rayelm below looked awesome, Jed and

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Speaker 4: Shakiri creating chances and scoring from out wide. I was

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Speaker 4: extremely impressed created over two point four expected goals against

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Speaker 4: the Serbians. Granted, Serbia has not been a particularly good

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Speaker 4: defensive side, but I like the Swiss again plus a

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Speaker 4: half against the Portuguese. We saw the Swiss play against Brazil,

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Speaker 4: which I think is a little bit of a better

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Speaker 4: comparison for how this match may go. Portugal doesn't have

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Speaker 4: quite the athleticism and the team speed, and they don't

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Speaker 4: have quite the we'll say difficulties at striker with getting

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Speaker 4: a lot of production from the striker position that Portugal

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Speaker 4: does necessarily with Ronaldo.

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Speaker 2: But I think Switzerland will.

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Speaker 4: Be able to limit transition opportunities sit a little bit

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Speaker 4: deeper transition effectively. The biggest question mark for me with

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Speaker 4: Portugal coming into the tournament was how they progressed the

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Speaker 4: ball through the midfield and get it into the attacking third.

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Speaker 4: That's actually not really been an issue. The problem has

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Speaker 4: actually been their transition defense and how vulnerable they've looked

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Speaker 4: conceding twice to Ghana, nearly a third if Naki Williams

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Speaker 4: hadn't slipped, and against Uruguay, once Uruguay ramped up the pressure,

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Speaker 4: they created a chance at their chance in that second half.

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Speaker 4: Don't take a ton from the Korean match today, but

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Speaker 4: didn't look great defending set pieces either, So there are

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Speaker 4: major question marks for this Portugal attack. I think they're

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Speaker 4: a little overvalued still. I've been thinking that all tournament.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to take the Swiss plus a half to

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Speaker 4: give them a run and maybe even get through this

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Speaker 4: in advance to the quarterfinal and pull off an upset.

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Speaker 3: It's so surprised for me. If you've been following along

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Speaker 3: our World Cup coverage, my favorite bet for this round

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Speaker 3: Samurai Blu Japan. They're plus one fifty two advance against Croatia. Anthony,

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Speaker 3: you just talked about how Portugal kind of profiles the

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Speaker 3: same way that Brazil does. They're just kind of a

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Speaker 3: poor man's Brazil. I think the same could be said

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Speaker 3: about Croatia. Compared to the two teams that Japan beat

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Speaker 3: in the group stage, Germany and Spain. This is the

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Speaker 3: team that wants Croatia, that wants to be on the ball.

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Speaker 3: They want to be able to control the game. They

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Speaker 3: want to keep it on script? Do they want to

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Speaker 3: keep it on Luka Modriz's the script And when it

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Speaker 3: comes to Japan, you just throw the script out. Like

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Speaker 3: they beat Germany, they lose to Costa Rica, they beat Spain.

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Speaker 3: This team has This World Cup has been crazy, but

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Speaker 3: no team has been more of.

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Speaker 2: A throw ride than Japan.

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Speaker 3: The team speed, the athleticism, the technical ability when they

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Speaker 3: get the ball should give Croatia a ton of trouble there. Belgium,

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Speaker 3: of course, we are the most disappointing team in the tournament,

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Speaker 3: but they were a romululukaku one point ninety eight extra

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Speaker 3: ge turning into a goal away from not being in

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Speaker 3: this round, right, So they've been at disappointment too. I

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Speaker 3: think people aren't realizing that because I think Croatia is

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Speaker 3: a little overrated in the spot. Keep backing Samurai Blue here.

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Speaker 3: They punch up better, maybe than any team in the

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Speaker 3: tournament outside of the Americans. And that's what we'll talk

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Speaker 3: about next. We will now break down all eight Round

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Speaker 3: of sixteen matches and we will start with Team America,

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Speaker 3: the United States of America. They are playing ten am

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Speaker 3: Eastern time on Saturday, against the Netherlands clockwork orange minus

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Speaker 3: one eighteen on the three way money line USA plus

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Speaker 3: three fifty. The draw is plus three fifty. The Netherlands

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Speaker 3: is minus two twenty five to advance. USA plus one

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Speaker 3: seventy five to advance. Of course, these odds are brought

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Speaker 3: to you by our friends at bat three sixty five BJ.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean if you listen to our preview pods,

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Speaker 5: you know that all of us have a US to

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Speaker 5: advance the quarterfinals to get a plus four fifty. They're

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Speaker 5: sitting at plus one seventy five now, But I still

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Speaker 5: think there's some value on that to get it on

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Speaker 5: the US to get to the quarterfinals, because they looked

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Speaker 5: great against England, especially in the midfield.

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Speaker 1: What they did is outstanding job of Michael is.

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Speaker 5: They sat in a mid block and they didn't really

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Speaker 5: provide a lot of pressure to the center backs. They

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Speaker 5: cut off the easy passes to Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham

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Speaker 5: and Mason Mount and forced England to play the ball

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Speaker 5: out wide and beat them with crosses.

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Speaker 1: In England was not able to do that.

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Speaker 5: So far, the Dutch have not looked good at all offensively.

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Speaker 5: If you go through their matches. They scored two goals

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Speaker 5: off of zero point seven against Senegal, then against Ecuador,

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Speaker 5: Cody Gabo scored from outside the box. After that goal,

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Speaker 5: they took one shot and had five penalty box touches.

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Speaker 5: So if the United State's able to take away the

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Speaker 5: easy passes to Franke Deong and not allow him to

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Speaker 5: conduct the midfield and really the Dutch out wide men

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Speaker 5: really haven't looked great in terms of progression the ball

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Speaker 5: at the pitch and getting crosses into the box, I

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Speaker 5: think the United States can absolutely defend very very well

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Speaker 5: in this match keep the Dutch out of the net.

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Speaker 5: The United States still has not allowed a non penalty

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Speaker 5: goal and only to a non penalty expected this tournament,

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Speaker 5: so I don't think there's much of a gap between

185
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Speaker 5: these two teams right now. I wouldn't be surprised at

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Speaker 5: all if this thing went to extra time. So I

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Speaker 5: do like the United States to advance at plus one

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Speaker 5: seventy five. I think that they're absolutely live in this match.

189
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Speaker 5: Can really hurt the Dutch on the counter. Although Nolans

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Speaker 5: does have good center backs, they can catch Netherlands.

191
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Speaker 1: Too far off the pitch.

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Speaker 5: We can maybe spring a few counter attacks, similar to

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Speaker 5: the way Senegal and Ecuador are able to beat them.

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Speaker 3: There are some lineup stuff here. Kristin Poulisich has been

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Speaker 3: cleared to play. We'll see if he does get the

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Speaker 3: nod for the full ninety. Of course, these games could

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Speaker 3: go extra time, and a reminder that if you are

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Speaker 3: betting the three way money line, if you bet Team

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Speaker 3: USA to win and the game goes to extra time,

200
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Speaker 3: if you lose your bet, that draws the bet that wins.

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Speaker 3: So just keep that in mind before placing your bets, Anthony.

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Speaker 3: There's also some talk about flu bug going through the

203
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Speaker 3: Dutch camp as well, so there is a lot to

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Speaker 3: kind of pars through here.

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Speaker 2: So I think that if you're going to bet.

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Speaker 3: Team USA and this especially, you know this is true

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Speaker 3: in America, right Like there's gonna be a ton of

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Speaker 3: money coming in on the Yanks tomorrow morning when everyone

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Speaker 3: wakes up realizes the game starting in fifteen minutes, get

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Speaker 3: your USA bets in. So if you are on Team USA,

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Speaker 3: I would you might want to do it before you

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Speaker 3: go to sleep tonight. Are you going to be doing that? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: If you follow me in the app, I already bet

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Speaker 2: the United States plus a half.

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Speaker 4: I'm also holding a Dutch to make the quarterfinals minus

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Speaker 4: one thirty ticket from before the tournament that I am

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Speaker 4: feeling a bit precarious about. And the Dutch worth team

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Speaker 4: I was pretty high on coming in. They had really

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Speaker 4: looked great in the Nation's League. But I'm starting to

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Speaker 4: wonder what that really told us about the Dutch because

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Speaker 4: the three teams they played in the Nation's League were Wales,

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Speaker 4: Poland and Belgium, and they romped through those teams. But

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Speaker 4: we have not been impressed by any one of those

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Speaker 4: three teams in this actual tournament, So maybe the Dutch

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Speaker 4: were perhaps a bit overrated coming in, and the numbers

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Speaker 4: would back that up. I mean their top ten and

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Speaker 4: getting the ball into the final third, but their bottom

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Speaker 4: ten in turning that into box entries and attacking penalty

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Speaker 4: area touches. They're not getting a lot of shots, not

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Speaker 4: getting a lot of expected gold production, zero point seven

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Speaker 4: to seven expected goals per match. It's been gakpo finishing

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Speaker 4: or nothing. They will have Memphis to pie back for

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Speaker 4: this one. He started the last match, played an hour.

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Speaker 4: I don't think he can go full ninety, so there

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Speaker 4: is fatigue question marks for both teams, especially now that

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Speaker 4: Frankie Deong may have the flu and a couple other

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Speaker 4: Dutch players rumored to be a bit of an outbreak there,

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Speaker 4: so the tea questions on both sides as well. I

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Speaker 4: like the USA plus a half. I wrote a full

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Speaker 4: preview in the app, you know, going deeper into this match.

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Speaker 2: You can go read it.

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Speaker 4: But really it comes down to the United States defensive

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Speaker 4: midfield taking away access to the penalty area for the Dutch,

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Speaker 4: and the United States not offering a ton going forward

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Speaker 4: against the three man back line of the Dutch themselves.

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Speaker 4: So I think this could be a bit of a stalemate.

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Speaker 4: I don't dislike to look at the under either, but

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Speaker 4: the United States clearly a little bit undervalued here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like USA plus one seventy five two advance.

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Speaker 3: I think the key to this matchup is what we

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Speaker 3: saw in the England matchup, which I think is arguably

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Speaker 3: the best performance we've seen out of a US team

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Speaker 3: in a World Cup in a long long time. They

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Speaker 3: hold England to nil nil, and if you watched England

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Speaker 3: play Iran and you watch in England play Wales, I

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Speaker 3: mean you should come away pretty impressed with that performance

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Speaker 3: and the difference between England, Iran and Wales is that

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Speaker 3: of those three teams, again playing against those three teams,

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Speaker 3: the US they didn't have the onus to have the

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Speaker 3: ball against England, but again Iran and Wales, there was

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Speaker 3: a lot more pressure on them to create their own

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Speaker 3: offense and not capitalize the mistakes. And against this Dutch

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Speaker 3: team who also want to be on the ball, and

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Speaker 3: like Beja said, they want Frankie Deon to be able

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Speaker 3: to orchestrate in the midfield, the US should be able

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Speaker 3: to play to deploy their most comfortable tactic, which is

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Speaker 3: to put some pressure in the midfield, look to turn

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Speaker 3: the ball over, get the ball to the feet of

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Speaker 3: Kristin Pulisich or Tim Waya or Anthony Robinson or Ciginio

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Speaker 3: desk Dot wide and let their athleticism and team speed

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Speaker 3: put a vulnerable Dutch defense under some pressure. I also,

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Speaker 3: like Anthony said, the Netherlands played in such.

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Speaker 2: A soft group. They win the group, but they were

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Speaker 2: not impressive at all.

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Speaker 3: I took a pacing of Qatar, a checked out quitar

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Speaker 3: team that was, you know, look out terrible in this

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Speaker 3: tournament for Netherlands to get into the black in terms

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Speaker 3: of their expected goal difference.

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Speaker 2: So I think they're a little bit of.

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Speaker 3: Paper tiger here, and I would not want to be

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Speaker 3: playing Team USA right now with what we saw out

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Speaker 3: of them when they had to punch up against England.

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Speaker 3: So I'm with you, guys. I like the Americans plus

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Speaker 3: one seventy five to advance two pm Eastern Time on Saturday,

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Speaker 3: Argentina minus five hundred taking on Australia fourteen to one.

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Speaker 3: The soccer rus are on the three way line. The

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Speaker 3: draw is plus five fifty. Argentina is a robust minus

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Speaker 3: twelve hundred two advance. Meanwhile, our Australia.

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Speaker 1: Seven to one.

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Speaker 3: The soccer ruse big big underdog here. They get by

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Speaker 3: despite you know, terrible underlying numbers, despite playing in a

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Speaker 3: group with France and everyone's favorite dark horse Denmark. But

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Speaker 3: they're here and they could give Argentina some issues here.

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Speaker 2: BJ.

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Speaker 3: I think you know they're they're just going to sit back,

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Speaker 3: park a yellow bus and hope to catch Argentina on

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Speaker 3: the counter. Will they be able to do it?

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Speaker 5: I think they might be able to. And I'm going

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Speaker 5: to take both teams to score at plus one eighty.

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Speaker 5: What you soft Margentina against Poland is They pretty much

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Speaker 5: solved the tactical problems that they were having against both

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Speaker 5: Mexico and Saudi Arabia, where their midfielders were getting pressed

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Speaker 5: two par up the pitch. There was nobody in the

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Speaker 5: middle pitch to come receive the ball from the center backs.

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Speaker 5: That means Messi would have to come out to actually

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Speaker 5: receive the ball deeper, which means you're taking away your

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Speaker 5: best attacker from the box, which is not good news.

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Speaker 5: They played Enzo Fernandez and Alexis McAllister Brighton legend in

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Speaker 5: the middle of the park against Paul and then they

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Speaker 5: had a lot more ball progressing, a lot more ball winning,

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Speaker 5: did a lot much better with their pressure. But I

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Speaker 5: think Australia can give them problems because although Australia does

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Speaker 5: play a similar defensive style that it does the Poland,

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Speaker 5: Poland's more of a low block team. Australia is actually

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Speaker 5: more of a mid block. They do play a little

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Speaker 5: bit higher, they do press a little bit higher up

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Speaker 5: the pitch. They were really really effective against both Tanisia

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Speaker 5: and Denmarket cutting off those passing lanes, winning the ball

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Speaker 5: and then it's just quick strike offense. That's what Graham

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Speaker 5: Arnold wants he wants two to three passes and he

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Speaker 5: wants to catch the defense out of position, and that's

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Speaker 5: what they did against France.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, you know the Lucas Hernandez.

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Speaker 5: Injury plays a part in that, but they were able

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Speaker 5: to do that against Tannisha and then so eventually how

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Speaker 5: they're able to score against then Mark. I mean they've

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Speaker 5: scored in every single match so far this tournament. And

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Speaker 5: for a very possession dominant team like Argentina and a

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Speaker 5: lot of these possession dominant teams throughout the tournament, where

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Speaker 5: are they most vulnerable when they're out of position and

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Speaker 5: they lose the ball high. So Australia will be very

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Speaker 5: aggressive in terms of their mid block and they're pressing,

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Speaker 5: cutting off those passes through the middle, forcing Argentina to

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Speaker 5: play the ball out wide. So I think there's a

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Speaker 5: good chance that they can score here. So I like

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Speaker 5: both team to score plus one eighty. I think it's

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Speaker 5: a little a little bit too high for a given

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Speaker 5: at what we've seen from Australia in their quick strike offense.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the fighting spirit of the soccer ruse Anthony, it's

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Speaker 3: alive and well into the knockout round. For the first

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Speaker 3: time since two thousand and six when Tim Cahill was

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Speaker 3: running the show. What are your thoughts here, Argentina Australia.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Australia just putting up a one point five expected

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Speaker 4: goals in three matches, not really that impressive, And like

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Speaker 4: Bja mentioned, their best scoring chance of the entire round

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Speaker 4: came because Lucas Hernandez tours acl and then couldn't defend

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Speaker 4: the incoming cross. So I think the Australian defense is

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Speaker 4: also a little bit vulnerable, like France ripped them apart

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Speaker 4: pretty easily. I think there's a very real chance that

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Speaker 4: Argentina just kind of does the same. But I'm not

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Speaker 4: laying two here, which is basically what the line is,

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Speaker 4: and i'd have to lay.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate a look on both teams to score.

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Speaker 4: Because Australia goes down, especially early, you're going to see

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Speaker 4: them have to come out and go for it, and

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Speaker 4: they have nothing really to lose, so could see them,

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Speaker 4: you know, put some pressure on Argentina, which no team

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Speaker 4: has had to do at this point. You know, we

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Speaker 4: saw Mexico conceded a little bit too late for that

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Speaker 4: to matter, and Poland was playing the goal difference game,

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Speaker 4: so nobody really wanted to go at Argentina except Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 4: who did score twice. Granted there were some flukes in there,

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Speaker 4: so I'm passing here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I can listen to BJ's argument maybe again on the

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Speaker 3: both teams to score, but otherwise it's it's pretty much

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Speaker 3: a passing me. I just don't trust the Australia offense

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Speaker 3: to continue to fire away. Like Anthony said, they're creating

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Speaker 3: very little and they're just making good they get one

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Speaker 3: chance of the game and finding the back of the net.

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Speaker 3: So far, I don't know if that'll continue despite going

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Speaker 3: up against the Argentina defense.

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Speaker 2: I don't think any of.

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Speaker 3: Us trust I'll flip it to Sunday now, ten am kickoff.

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Speaker 3: Is France their minus three thirty four on the three

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Speaker 3: way line, Poland twelve to one to draw. Here is

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Speaker 3: plus three seventy five France's minus nine hundred to advance

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Speaker 3: Poland five and a half to one. I think you know, BJ,

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Speaker 3: we already got your thoughts on this match. Anthony's will

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Speaker 3: go to you. I think that we can all say

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Speaker 3: and I think this is the general consensus. Poland is

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Speaker 3: the luckiest team of any of the sixteen to be

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Speaker 3: in this group. I mean, you could say that about Australia,

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Speaker 3: but they earned their way in Poland at one point

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Speaker 3: was just getting in through yellow cards. So are we

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Speaker 3: going to be fading Robert Lewin Daskian company here? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, you know it is. It is a little scary

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Speaker 4: Didera Schamp. I'm laying a goal and a half with

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Speaker 4: this French team. You know, I just don't trust them

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Speaker 4: because of how he is as a manager, and you know,

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Speaker 4: there's always a fear they can get an early goal

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Speaker 4: or get a goal and then just kind of sit.

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Speaker 4: But even in that scenario, I don't see a world

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Speaker 4: where Poland's able to come out. Poland finished bottom five

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Speaker 4: in the possession percentage despite playing in a group with

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Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia and Mexico who were not possession dominant teams whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: So this Poland team.

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Speaker 4: Wants to sit deeper and try to, you know, find

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Speaker 4: Lewandowski in transition.

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Speaker 2: But like Bja mentioned with chewo of Many, chewo of

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Speaker 2: Many is like Kante junior, but tall.

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Speaker 4: He's like the you know, and he's doing the job

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Speaker 4: that they needed from Kante that they did not have

404
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Speaker 4: because he's injured too many is doing it and doing

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Speaker 4: it just as well as Kante does when he was

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Speaker 4: in his prime in twenty eighteen. And I think the

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Speaker 4: biggest difference not only is Demble getting up the right

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Speaker 4: wing and just wreaking havoc with ball progression, but they're

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Speaker 4: putting more people forward, Robbio getting into the penalty area more,

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Speaker 4: and Tao Hernandez. The injury to Lucas Hernandez has opened

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Speaker 4: the door for Tao, who's one of the best attacking

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Speaker 4: left backs in the world, to get forward, combined with

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Speaker 4: himbape and overload teams.

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna overload Poland here. I like the

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Speaker 2: minus one and a half. I'm mean with you.

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Speaker 3: I think this is the France we're out. I think

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Speaker 3: you could find value in a number of different ways.

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Speaker 3: One I'm thinking about is France twin to nil. They're

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Speaker 3: minus one twenty at that line at bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 3: Poland they just don't create anything and they're totally fine.

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Speaker 3: Like I could see them going into this matchup.

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Speaker 2: With the idea of let's just get this.

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Speaker 3: Thing to extra time, or let's just try to win

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Speaker 3: a penalty or a direct kick deep in France territory.

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Speaker 3: Hope we get lucky and try to see this thing out,

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Speaker 3: because that's what they've done. They've been so game state dependent.

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Speaker 3: You know, the way they played the end of that

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Speaker 3: match on the last match date, it was it was

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Speaker 3: absurd and like I said, the luckiest team to be

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Speaker 3: in here. France meanwhile, probably the opposite end of the spectrum,

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Speaker 3: even though they did lose to Tunisia, like you said,

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Speaker 3: that was a change squad. They've been the most impressive

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Speaker 3: of the favorites, I would say. So it as a

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Speaker 3: match probably the biggest one in my eyes of the

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Speaker 3: round of sixteen. So all three of us on France.

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Speaker 3: It's BJ's favorite bet of the round as well. Two

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Speaker 3: pm Sunday, BJ, your boys the three Lions of England

438
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:14,560
Speaker 3: minus one ay to eight against your other boys, the

439
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 3: Lions of Toroango Senegal plus seven hundred on the three

440
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 3: way line, but plus the draws plus two eighty to

441
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 3: advance England minus four to fifty Senegal plus three thirty three.

442
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 3: This will be like choosing between your children for you, Yeah, I.

443
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,439
Speaker 5: Mean, would it surprise you to say that here that

444
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 5: my favorite animal is a lion?

445
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 1: Anyway?

446
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 5: I like England here minus one at minus one ten.

447
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 5: I think what you see from Senegal is they had, Yes,

448
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 5: they have been very impressive. They are a very very

449
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 5: good defensive team. You know, throughout have Cup Nations and

450
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,200
Speaker 5: World Cup qualifiers on allowed point seventy four expect goals

451
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 5: for ninety minutes and they haven't allowed anybody to create

452
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 5: over one expected goal throughout the group stage. But this

453
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 5: is mighty, mighty England they're facing now, and what they've

454
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 5: been very very vulnerable at defensively is crosses. They've allowed

455
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 5: twenty one passes into their penalty area. Eleven have come

456
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 5: from across And what do we know about England. They're

457
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 5: one of the best set piece teams in the entire

458
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,119
Speaker 5: world and they are pretty reliant on them as well. Now,

459
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,679
Speaker 5: the fear here for England is that Senegal has a

460
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 5: ton of athleticism, They have a ton of pace and

461
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 5: they can really really hit you on the counter. But

462
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 5: they haven't really been pressing teams high. Against the Netherlands,

463
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 5: they had a pass for defensive action of sixteen point nine.

464
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 5: They only forced for high turnovers. So if they're not

465
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 5: going to put any pressure on Harry and guire, John Stones.

466
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 5: They're probably gonna have the same game plan that the

467
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 5: United States had against England, which was cut off the

468
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 5: easy passes to Jude Bellingham, Mason Mount and Declan Rice

469
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,439
Speaker 5: and just stay very, very compact in the middle. But

470
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 5: like I already mentioned, if they're going to force England

471
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 5: to swing the ball wide, they've been very vulnerable at

472
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,360
Speaker 5: giving up those type of crosses. Plus, we've now reached

473
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,199
Speaker 5: the knockout stage. And what's the biggest thing in this

474
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 5: tournament as we go farther and farther into it, it's depth.

475
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 1: England has it, Senegal doesn't.

476
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 5: Senegal's basically had to play the same starting eleven for

477
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 5: the entire tournament, while England's had the ability to rotate

478
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 5: guys because they beat Iram sixty two in the first meeting.

479
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 5: So England's the fresher team, they're the better team. And

480
00:19:58,520 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 5: the reason I like the minus one on the spread

481
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 5: not taking them minus one nineties. We've seen from this

482
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 5: World Cup is that once a team goes up one

483
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,159
Speaker 5: nothing and the other teams like oh, crap I got

484
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 5: to get back into this match, the match opens up

485
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 5: a lot. And we've seen it both in the Wales

486
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 5: and I ran match that when England is afforded the

487
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 5: space with the amazing, amazing attackers that they have, they

488
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 5: can just punish you. So I think this is in

489
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 5: England to nothing win. You see the total set very

490
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 5: very low because these are two very good defensive teams,

491
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 5: two very slow paced build up type teams. But I

492
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 5: do think England eventually gets through, So I'm gonna take

493
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 5: them minus one at minus one ten.

494
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 3: Anthony on our podcast, BJ is always higher on England

495
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 3: than you or I are. I think you're probably in

496
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 3: the middle. Uh you know, I'm a little lower. BJ

497
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 3: a little higher than You're in the middle. You're kind

498
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 3: of the reasonable one.

499
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 5: You're too busy reading the Sun, Michael, You're too busy

500
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 5: reading the Daily Mail thing now, Sarah, Gary Salakate is

501
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 5: too conservative and everything.

502
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: The reality is this is the best team in the world.

503
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, Japan would like the underpand would like a word.

504
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 2: I like the under two and quarter of minus one fifteen.

505
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 4: I agree with all the points that BJ made about

506
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 4: England gets Kyle Walker back now, I think it's a

507
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 4: huge addition for this kind of match where he's kind

508
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 4: of the sweeper. He kind of you know, long balls

509
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 4: over the top are and he's in charge of that

510
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 4: more so than Stone's and Maguire, and he kind of

511
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 4: cleans up the mess and doesn't really get forward a ton,

512
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 4: and compared to somebody like a Kieran Trippier who is

513
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 4: going to get forward a ton and is going to

514
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,959
Speaker 4: progress the ball and cross it in, I don't think

515
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 4: we'll see as much of that so from Walker. So

516
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 4: I think that limits the English attack a little bit

517
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:31,959
Speaker 4: and helps the defense.

518
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: So that helps me here.

519
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 4: And Senegal doesn't really have like a creative playmaker type

520
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 4: and Mane being out like.

521
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 2: It hasn't really mattered to this point.

522
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 4: Ecuador sat super deep and tried to absorb pressure and

523
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 4: Senegal was very good at kind of taking them apart.

524
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 4: But they're going to have very little of the ball here,

525
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 4: and the team I look for in transition needs to

526
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 4: have one a finisher, one playmaker, somebody who can really threaten.

527
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 4: And we kind of saw it in the Dutch match

528
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 4: a little bit where Senegal just kind of didn't have

529
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 4: a ton of options. They created a lot of mediocre

530
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,199
Speaker 4: to not good scoring opportunities and I think it's going

531
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 4: to be very hard for them to get much against

532
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: this England defense. So I like the under two and

533
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 4: a quarter and yeah, Southgate is conservative. If they go

534
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 4: up a goal, We've seen it from them time and

535
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 4: time again. Now that they're in the knockout stage, it

536
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 4: only gets even tighter. I think this game will not

537
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 4: have a ton of transition opportunities for either team.

538
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 3: So I like the under Yeah you just described a

539
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 3: rock fight. I think that this game will be a

540
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 3: rock fight. You like the under I like the underdog

541
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: in a game that I think could be decided by

542
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: a lucky break here or there. I mean, that's soccer.

543
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 3: The margins are going to be fine. And Southgate think

544
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 3: about the one match where England had to play a athletic,

545
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 3: a quick team, a team that could actually pressure them and.

546
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,400
Speaker 2: Cause some issues in the midfield.

547
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: It was Team USA and that was their worst performance

548
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 3: and they were much What was the kind of general

549
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 3: consensus about that that performance? From the England standpoint, they

550
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 3: were too conservative. They didn't take as many chances because

551
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 3: they were afraid of getting picked apart going the other way,

552
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 3: and that's what happens in these high stakes matches. Under Gara,

553
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 3: Southgate is handbreak on DJ, handbreak on even without Adrisa

554
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 3: Gay in the middle, this Senegal midfield should.

555
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 2: Still be hard to deal with.

556
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 3: They're athletic, they're quick, they could turn the ball over.

557
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: They're physical, they can get it to Sar, they can

558
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 3: get it to Da. They can hurt you on the

559
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: counter still, and they have threats on set pieces too,

560
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: with Koolabali in the air. So I just think, look

561
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 3: at seven to one on the three way money line

562
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 3: for a reason, England is a much better team. You

563
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 3: know who else closed around this number against England Wales.

564
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 3: Senegal is much better than Wales, I know. But why

565
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 3: is the number of the Sea It shouldn't be this.

566
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 3: It's telling you right away value on the underdog here, England.

567
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 3: They play things way too fine to be able to

568
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 3: lay this kind of number against a good team. Good

569
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 3: underdog bet here at a big, big.

570
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 2: Number ten am on Monday.

571
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: The headliner for those who know Japan and Croati. Japan's

572
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 3: plus two seventy five, Croatia plus one fifteen, the only

573
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 3: team that's not an odds on favorite, the only favorite

574
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 3: that's not odds on on the three way line. The

575
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 3: draw is plus two twenty to advance. Japan already taking money.

576
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,640
Speaker 3: They're plus one thirty seven at bet three sixty five,

577
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 3: Croatias minus one seventy five. Already game My thoughts, no

578
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: surprise BJ, I'm on Samurai Blue.

579
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,959
Speaker 5: What about Yeah, I'm going to be on over two

580
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 5: goals at minus one thirty.

581
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 1: I think total set a little too low here. So

582
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: the fear for.

583
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 5: Japan is the match that happened between croati and Canada,

584
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 5: where Canada is a very similar team that sets up

585
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 5: like Japan, where they are sit back, low block, but

586
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 5: are very very aggressively their pressing and then quick strike

587
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 5: counter attacks. Now, Japan has a much better midfield than Canada,

588
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 5: but I mean, in Spain outstanding performance. We don't know

589
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 5: if Spain was actually trying to lose that match or not,

590
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 5: but anyway, Japan held seventeen percent possession. It's the lowest

591
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 5: amount of possession held in a World Cup win in

592
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 5: the history of the entire tournament.

593
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: So can they replicate it?

594
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 5: You know, they've obviously have taken advantage of their counter

595
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 5: attacking opportunities and finished them. But you know, Croatia, what

596
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 5: we've seen from them so far is that, yes, they're

597
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 5: still very, very good in the midfield, even I'd say

598
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 5: probably through the first fifty year or so minutes of

599
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 5: that match against Baildum, I thought Croatia was still the

600
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 5: much better side, and then of course Belgium was the

601
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 5: one that created a bunch of chances towards the end.

602
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 5: And Croatia has looked vulnerable defensively, not even that Belgium match,

603
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 5: but especially against Canada, like Canada.

604
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: Went up on on them.

605
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 5: You know, Morocco didn't create much against them. But goalkeeper

606
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 5: is an issue for Croatia right now. If you watch

607
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 5: that Belgium match, like he made countless mistakes after mistake

608
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 5: and just got away with it. And it was a

609
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 5: problem coming into the tournament because this is the same

610
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 5: goalkeeper in the Euros that had a minus two post

611
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 5: shout expected goal plus minus and only four matches. So

612
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 5: Japan is absolutely live here to create the counter attacking

613
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 5: opportunities like they did against Germany, like they did against Spain,

614
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 5: and I think they will be able to do so.

615
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 5: And you know, the fear here is that Croatia, you know,

616
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 5: they don't have the finishers up top to cover this

617
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 5: type of over but Croatia.

618
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: Does have the third most penalty box touches in this tournament.

619
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 5: So they've been able to get in the final third

620
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 5: and create chances just outside of the Canada match, they

621
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 5: just haven't been able to put them. Why so I

622
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 5: do like over two goals of minus one thirty, I

623
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 5: have two point six goals projected. I think one the

624
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 5: first goal goes in, you'll see this match completely all

625
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 5: open up and might see some chaos happen.

626
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: Similar to the Serbia Switzerland match today.

627
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: That's one thing Japan hasn't done in this World Cup.

628
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: Score first, that's true, come to one where they've gone

629
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 3: behind one nail and scored two goals. So also like

630
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 3: an interesting live betting team too, because the changes that

631
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: they've made at halftime, you know, cross out the Costa

632
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 3: Rica match right where they played a C squad. If

633
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 3: Kras goes up, well nothing, all of a sudden, the

634
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 3: real Japan shows up and they're the best team in

635
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 3: the world. Anthony, what are your thoughts on Japan and

636
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:35,199
Speaker 3: Croatia here?

637
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm enjoining you on Japan. You know I was

638
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 4: you if you followed me throughout this World Cup I was.

639
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 4: I was cursing Moriasu for the majority of the last

640
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 4: week after the Costa Rica match when he benched all

641
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 4: of his good players and basically took a World Cup

642
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 4: match as like a friendly, and they lost, and I

643
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 4: was like, well, there goes the two advanced ticket, the

644
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 4: Costa Rica ticket.

645
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 2: The Japan's done, like our dreams are over and then

646
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: they pull off.

647
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 4: Yet whatever the hell happened yesterday, I mean, that was

648
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 4: an incredible match, But what was left underlying was they

649
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 4: played a lot better yesterday did against Germany. Against Germany,

650
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 4: like they created a bunch of chances in transition, but

651
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 4: they were also conceding a bunch of chances like Spain

652
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 4: didn't do anything in the second half. And yes, you know,

653
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 4: part of me wonders of Spain really wanted to win

654
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 4: that match. But the other part of me is looking

655
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 4: at the passing map from Spain. It was just basically

656
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 4: Rodri passing it to Torres back to Rodrie Torres, Rodri Torres,

657
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 4: Like they had no ability of getting, you know, getting

658
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 4: into the final third.

659
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 2: In that second half. It was Japan's elite defensive press.

660
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 4: And now they face a slightly worse possession team and

661
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 4: with it with much worse attacking players in terms of

662
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 4: getting on the end of chances and getting shots. So

663
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 4: I think Japan is live here one hundred percent. I

664
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 4: liked them plus a half, and you know you mentioned

665
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 4: it PJ Like the second half against Belgium, they were horrendous,

666
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 4: so I think that is notable. Yes, they never conceded,

667
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 4: so they didn't have to like switch the like flip

668
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 4: the switch, but they were horrendous in that half, and

669
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 4: I think that's pretty concerning Croatia even expected goal difference

670
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 4: coming out of a pretty mediocre group Japan putting in,

671
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 4: you know, coming out of the Group of Death, I

672
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 4: think that's definitely where something here. So I like Japan

673
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 4: plus a half.

674
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 5: Croatia's fullbacks got caught way way too far out the

675
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 5: pitch against Beldam. He saw Sosa, he obviously is one

676
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 5: of their main creators. But once you get caught out

677
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 5: too far to the pitch, there's so much room down

678
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 5: the flanks, and you know, Broseovich, Madrich and Kovachi just

679
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 5: can't cover the ground like they did in twenty eighteen.

680
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 5: So that is good news for Japan and being able

681
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 5: to hurt Croatia down the wings.

682
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: You talked about depth issues BJA, the miles on this

683
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 3: Croatia team are pretty extensive, whereas Japan they rotated guys.

684
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 2: Anthony worked out rotated guys the minutes a match, the drive.

685
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: That's a credible half hour.

686
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 3: All right. We could talk about the Japan team all

687
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: night if we wanted to, a great way to spend

688
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 3: your Friday night, but we'll move on two pm Eastern

689
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 3: time on Monday, Monday Night football between Brazil their minus

690
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 3: four hundred on the three way line, South Korea the

691
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 3: Tigrook Warriors get through somehow ten to one on the

692
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 3: three way. The draw here is plus four to seventy

693
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 3: five Brazil minus eight hundred to advance South Korea plus

694
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 3: five hundred. It's pretty hard to figure out what to

695
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: make of Brazil's final match day result, where they dressed

696
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 3: a completely different eleven, sort of like we saw out

697
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 3: of France a little bit at Portugal. They lose the

698
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 3: Cameroon on a last minute winner, but other than that,

699
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 3: they've they've looked impressive.

700
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 2: Bj I think that it's.

701
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 3: Hard to go against them just because they lost their final,

702
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: their final match. So I don't think anybody in this

703
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: zoom their thoughts at Brazil have been diminished at all.

704
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 5: No, not at all you could make the case that

705
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 5: Neymar being out definitely hurts Brazil, and I think it does,

706
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 5: like even though he's been in the form of his

707
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 5: life coming into the World Cup, and they just really

708
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 5: lack that central presence on the pitch, that finisher in

709
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 5: front of net. You know, I love Gabby at Jesus,

710
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 5: but he's having some finishing issues for Arsenal and for

711
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 5: the national team as well. So for South Korea, they

712
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 5: can easily sit in deep, low blocks, similar to how

713
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 5: they did it against Uruguay. They're going to take away

714
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,719
Speaker 5: a lot of the middle of the pitch, those easy passes.

715
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 5: That's why they were successful against Earwi essentially neutralized Valverde

716
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 5: and be Benser, so they can do the exact same

717
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 5: thing here to Brazil. I actually like under two and

718
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 5: a half goals a plus one fifteen. I think this

719
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 5: under is just a little bit too high because we

720
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 5: see this Brazil attacking offense. Oh my gosh, it's it's

721
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 5: so amazing and everything. But yes, they have created quite

722
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 5: a few expected goals. But you look at the Switzerland match,

723
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 5: like I'd say that's very similar to the type of

724
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 5: defense they're going to see.

725
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: From South Korea.

726
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 5: Like they created just a little bit over one expected

727
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 5: goal without Aymar in the lineup, and Brazil defensively, they

728
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 5: haven't allowed opponents to create over one expected goal in

729
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 5: this entire tournament.

730
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: Coming into it.

731
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 5: They only allowed point seven to four xctually for ninety

732
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 5: throughout South American qualifying and Copa Americas. So you know,

733
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 5: South Korea is basically going to have to do what

734
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 5: they did today against Portugal. They're gonna have to take

735
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 5: advantage of their counter attacking opportunities. You know, Hea chen

736
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 5: wang finally found the back.

737
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:50,719
Speaker 1: Of the net.

738
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 5: You know, he hasn't done it all year for Wolves,

739
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 5: but his one touch for South Korea and he puts

740
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 5: his wall in the back of the net. That's what

741
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 5: they're going to have to do if they're going to

742
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 5: beat Brazil here. But I expect them to sit very

743
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 5: very deep. And yes, a lot of South Korea's matches

744
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 5: have gone over, but you got to look at the

745
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 5: game state and the game theory behind it. Like they

746
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 5: conceded early against Ghana and they needed to win. If

747
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 5: you look at the Uruguay match where it was the

748
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 5: first match to the group stage, they didn't really need

749
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,719
Speaker 5: to be that aggressive in terms of their counter attacking

750
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 5: and applying pressure. They sat very, very defensive and they

751
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 5: only held Urguay to point five expected goals, so I'm

752
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 5: expecting the same thing from them, and this is probably

753
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 5: a Brazil one maybe two nothing win. But I think

754
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 5: the the over is just a little bit too much

755
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 5: here because I think it's taking into account how good

756
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 5: this Brazil attacking offense is. But I really don't think

757
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 5: we're going to see Aymar in this match, given what

758
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 5: we've read from the reports coming out and even seeing

759
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 5: how big his ankle swallow up after that match.

760
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: So I do like under two and a half goals

761
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: and plus one fifteen he was jumping over Cones in.

762
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: A Katari gym, so who knows to tell Jim Hotel,

763
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: Jim Anthony, I know you're passing on this one.

764
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 2: I likely be passing too.

765
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 3: I think that I would lean towards what BJ was saying,

766
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: a low evank game, especially out of the first half,

767
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: maybe first half under or the first half to end

768
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 3: nil nail, because I think that Brazil is can I

769
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: want to manage this game more than anything because they've

770
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 3: seen what South Korea can do. This is a team

771
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 3: that can come back and all of a sudden, you

772
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 3: blink and they're up to one against Portugal, and they

773
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 3: were able to fight back from two nil against Ghana

774
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: as well. So I think that Brazil, we'll try to

775
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: manage this game, like you said, win it, you know,

776
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 3: one nail, two nil. Sure they can play anyone off

777
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 3: the park, but I think this really has the feel

778
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 3: of a pretty low event game, especially off the blocks.

779
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: So I'll likely be joining you on something correlated to

780
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 3: the under Tuesday is the final day of the Round

781
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 3: of sixteen, and then we get a break, We get

782
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 3: a breather for.

783
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 2: A couple of days after that.

784
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: Morocco and Spain is the morning match ten am Eastern Time.

785
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 3: Morocco the Atlas Lions. Anthony, we were all over them

786
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: coming into the World Cup. They're six to one on

787
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: the three way line, Spain minus one seventy five. The

788
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 3: draw is plus two to seventy five to advance Morocco's

789
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 3: three to one Spain minus four hundred BJ. You think

790
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: that this magical Morocco run will come to an end, huh?

791
00:32:58,680 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 3: I do.

792
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 5: Unfortunately, you know, we obviously loved Morocco coming into the tournament,

793
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 5: but let's be honest, they were pretty fortunate through the

794
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 5: group stage to actually win that group. They created just

795
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 5: two point four expected goals scored four times.

796
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: Then they conceded.

797
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 5: Two point eight expected goals and only conceded one goal,

798
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 5: So they just have gotten lucky. And what concerns me

799
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 5: in this match, Michael, is that coming into the tournament,

800
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 5: Morocco was one of the best pressing teams in Africa,

801
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 5: and they were very comfortable pressing a lot of lower,

802
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 5: smaller nations throughout the continent, whether it be Africa Coup

803
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 5: Nations or World Cup qualifying. They sat very, very deep,

804
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 5: and they did not provide much pressure against both Belgium

805
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 5: and against Croatia. Against Belgium they had a pass per

806
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 5: defensive action of thirteen point seven and only forced just

807
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 5: four high turnovers. So if they're going to sit back

808
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 5: against Spain and allow them to just pick out the

809
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 5: passes that they want allow them to make runs into

810
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 5: the box, it's tough for me to see a path

811
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 5: where Morocco can actually keep Spain out of the net. So,

812
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 5: you know, Spain, I don't really take much from the

813
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 5: Japan match, like great Japan win, but I really think

814
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 5: they were trying to lose that match. So and I

815
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 5: think that if, you know, if it was a different

816
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 5: situation where it was, like, let's just say, for hypothetically,

817
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 5: that Costa Rica had held their lead against Germany for

818
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 5: more than two minutes, I think we would have saw

819
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 5: a much much more aggressive Spain team trying to attack

820
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 5: the box, trying to get those passes more into the

821
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 5: you know, into the final third, rather than like you know,

822
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 5: Anthony Stebb just passing the ball between Rodri and Powotour

823
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 5: is actually Rodri couldly the most passes ever in a

824
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 5: World Cup game, so crats congrats to him. But Spain

825
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 5: hold probably seventy five or more present possession in this match.

826
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 5: So it's hard for me to see a path from Morocco,

827
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 5: who we haven't really seen, sit in and defend against

828
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 5: an elite, elite attacking side, because I would not consider

829
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 5: Croatia or Belgium elite attacking side.

830
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: So I do like Spain minus one at even money.

831
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 5: Similar to the theory behind England is that if Spain

832
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 5: scores first, it's going to open up this match, which

833
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 5: when you give Spain the best passing team and the

834
00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 5: best possessing team in.

835
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: The world spaced operate, it's trouble.

836
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 3: So I do like me minus one at plus one hundred, Anthony,

837
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 3: Like I said, this is this Morocco team. They're near

838
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 3: and dear to your heart. I'll talk about my bed

839
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: after you break this one down. But I think there's

840
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: more of a path here than be just giving them

841
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 3: credit for Yeah, I.

842
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 2: Don't love the matchup.

843
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 4: I was really hoping that Morocco would get a Germany

844
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 4: or a Japan, you know, out of this group. That

845
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 4: was the goal, because I thought they would have a

846
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 4: better matchup stylistically with those two teams. Morocco a fifth

847
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 4: lowest percentage of possession in the group. They were able

848
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,720
Speaker 4: to comfortably sit deep against two older Croatian and Belgian

849
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 4: teams and kind of keep them in check.

850
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 2: Two consecutive clean sheets, didn't concede.

851
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 4: More than one big scoring chance in neither of those matches,

852
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 4: So I thought they were stellar defensively.

853
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 2: But you could see in those matches that they lacked like.

854
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 4: The transitional elements that you'd want to see from a

855
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 4: team that could really dominate here. And you saw a

856
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 4: little bit of it against Canada. But again, the Canada

857
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 4: transition defense was so bad, and their back line was

858
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 4: so bad and the goal he gifted them a goal too,

859
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 4: So Spain's going to have seventy five plus percent of

860
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 4: the possis here. I think it's very hard for Morocco

861
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 4: to do much against them in that kind of setting,

862
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 4: so I don't really trust Morocco here. I wouldn't lay

863
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 4: it with Spain either. I think the numbers right around right,

864
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 4: So I'll be passing rooting for Spain. Now we have

865
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 4: our Spain futures. Morocco, thank you very much for the group,

866
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 4: group stage and group and winning.

867
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: We appreciate them. At kim Ziek.

868
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 4: You know, maybe could magic up something here, but again,

869
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 4: this just feels like Morocco is going to get stuck

870
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 4: in their own half for the majority and for the

871
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 4: overwhelming majority of the match, this will be a very

872
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 4: dominant Spain showing. Question is can they finish. Maybe Alvaro

873
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 4: will get it one or two goals here, get us

874
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 4: through and help our golden boot tickets.

875
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 3: You guys are overlooking something. They paced at Costa Rica

876
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 3: seven nil. But the Spain defense been good in this tournament.

877
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 4: No, not really, so I think, well, the biggest question

878
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 4: mark is Jordie Alba because so he went off against Germany,

879
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 4: they immediately conceded through an error left back from Balda

880
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 4: and then both goals came through the same area again.

881
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 4: So like, does Jordi Alba being back help the Spain defense.

882
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 2: Is Jordie Ala back? We don't really know, Like, I

883
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: think that's a.

884
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 4: Big difference though, because they definitely looked a little bit

885
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,439
Speaker 4: leaky up that left side, and I think that would

886
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 4: get short up with a healthy Jeordia Alba in this match,

887
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 4: Morocco is.

888
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 3: A moment's team, right, like like Ziyak, like you said,

889
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 3: like he's a guy who can flip a script with

890
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 3: just one kind of ten second spell, and I think

891
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 3: that makes some dangerous against this This I would call

892
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 3: vulnerable defense and Uni simone, it has been really bad

893
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 3: in goal, like and even with the ball at his feet,

894
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 3: which is supposed to be you know, the reason he's

895
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 3: in the team is he's supposed to be the guy

896
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 3: who's able to start, you know, get get the ticket

897
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:35,919
Speaker 3: tack of going from from the you know, the six

898
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,839
Speaker 3: yard box. Like he's looked bad, that the defenses look bad.

899
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 3: This is a I have no idea what to make

900
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 3: a Spain. They could run through the rest of this

901
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 3: tournament and I'd be like, all right, like that the

902
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: Costa Rica Spain is the Spain, that is the real Spain.

903
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 3: Or they could lose to Morocco and I wouldn't be shocked.

904
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 3: I think that the defense is way too vulnerable to

905
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: lay this kind of number, so I'm going to see

906
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 3: where it goes. I think that Spain will take money,

907
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 3: and I think that we could get a that pretty

908
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 3: good number on Morocco come Tuesday morning. So That's where

909
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 3: I'm looking the Atlas Lions keep their magic going. I

910
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 3: think that, you know, I just don't trust the Spain

911
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 3: defense enough to late this kind of juice. So Morocco

912
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 3: or nothing for me, and then will conclude this show

913
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:18,959
Speaker 3: and the Round of sixteen will conclude Tuesday two pm

914
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 3: Eastern Portugal minus one ten against Switzerland plus three fifty.

915
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 3: The draw here is plus two thirty to advance Portugal

916
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 3: minus two twenty five Switzerland plus one seventy five. Anthony,

917
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 3: we already know that you are on the Swiss. I

918
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 3: should probably phrase it that you are against the Portuguese BJ.

919
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: What about you, I'm with them.

920
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 5: I like the Swiss to advance a plus one seventy five.

921
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 5: I mean the match against Brazil was was very very

922
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 5: impressive from a defensive standpoint for Switzerland. They only conceded

923
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 5: one expected old to Brazil off at thirteen shots. I mean,

924
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 5: this is a really really, like we've said coming into

925
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 5: the tournament, a very very well drilled tactical side that

926
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 5: is perfectly fine conceding possession, can stay very compact, has

927
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 5: do two good center backs, has a good goalkeeper, and

928
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 5: like Anthony mentioned, off the top, they looked awesome in

929
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 5: transition today like Brilambolo was very lively, scored a goal,

930
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,760
Speaker 5: you know, creating over two point four expected goals granted

931
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 5: to was Serbia. But you know Portugal, we have a

932
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 5: team in Switzerland that knows what they want to do

933
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 5: exactly versus Portugal, where it seemed to times they don't

934
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 5: know what they want to do tactically.

935
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: Like the Uruguay match was very very evident that Portugal.

936
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 5: Yes, they can have a lot of possession, they can

937
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 5: have a ton of final third touches, but they really

938
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 5: didn't create anything. You know, they had the penalty at

939
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 5: the end. So you see two point seven expected goals,

940
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 5: you say, okay, it wasn't that good an offense and performance. Hey,

941
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 5: they did score two goals, well, one of them was

942
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 5: off across that the goalkeeper just didn't come out and

943
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 5: get and so obviously went in the back of the net.

944
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 5: But essentially all Portugal shots just came from outside the

945
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 5: box and then Uruguay really punched them. So you have

946
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 5: a Swiss team, it's perfectly fine, sitting compact, sitting deep.

947
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 5: So I think this is a good, good position here

948
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 5: for the Swiss to maybe get this extra time like

949
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 5: Anthony mentioned, and maybe eke out a win and finally

950
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 5: and this luck box Portugal team.

951
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: So I'm on the Swiss to advance the plus one

952
00:39:59,520 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: seventy five.

953
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they played twice in the Nation's League this summer.

954
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 4: They were in the same group. Portugal won the first

955
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 4: meeting for nothing. That was against a pretty rotated Swiss side.

956
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 4: When they played the second meeting, Swiss one one nothing.

957
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 4: It scored in the first minute, so it was a

958
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 4: bit of a bizarre kind of you know, the games

959
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 4: they get thrown off right away. But Switzerland did a

960
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 4: very good job of kind of keeping everything in front

961
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 4: of them. In Portugal, no runners in behind. Ronaldo did

962
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 4: not play well in that match either, So I think

963
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 4: there's a path here for Switzerland to get this extra time.

964
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 4: And remember last year at the Euros, very similar Swiss

965
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 4: team beat France on penns and nearly beat Spain on penns.

966
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 4: So this is a team that, look, they've been a dangerous,

967
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 4: you know, underdog team, and they have a lot of

968
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 4: veteran experience. I worried a little bit about them coming

969
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:40,720
Speaker 4: in that they would be like a little bit teetering

970
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 4: on the edge of washed, but they looked great in

971
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,240
Speaker 4: this tournament and they've freshened up with some younger players.

972
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did look good.

973
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: I mean they looked unfamiliar, and I mean that as

974
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,720
Speaker 3: a compliment against Serbia today. They played open, they were creative,

975
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 3: they looked dangerous when they had the ball, and you

976
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: know they're going to be, you know, very well organized defensively.

977
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 3: So when you add to those two things together, I

978
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:02,720
Speaker 3: think that they should punch up pretty well as an underdog.

979
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 3: So all three of us here are in Switzerland, I'm

980
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 3: going to back them on the ninety minute line plus

981
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 3: three fifty. I think the number is good enough.

982
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: You know what that means.

983
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 3: This Portugal Luckbox will continue and guess what, when we

984
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 3: reconvene in a couple of days, we'll bet against them again,

985
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 3: and then they'll make it to the semi final and

986
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 3: we'll bet against them and they'll make it to the final,

987
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 3: and we'll be talking about Christiano Ronaldo in a World

988
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 3: Cup final in a couple of weeks.

989
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: And on that note, BJ.

990
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 3: Anthony, we'll bring to an end this live episode of

991
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 3: Wonder Goal. We thank you for watching, for listening if

992
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: you're listening to our podcast version. Until we see you again,

993
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 3: Go go USA and bestle up with all your soccer

994
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 3: best