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Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal hull. That for me, I'm

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Speaker 1: a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well,

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Speaker 1: I want to be happy. You want to be happy

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Speaker 1: for a day? Edith State is that woo woom? And

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Speaker 1: them and Tie.

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Speaker 2: Dan Robertstein will welcome back to the pod Migrating good Friend.

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Speaker 2: As you know, next week gonna be starting up previews. Yes, sir,

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Speaker 2: this is our last episode before we dive in officially

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Speaker 2: to the college football preseason.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna lead off.

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Speaker 2: Our preview coverage by doing what we did last year,

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Speaker 2: the intro to the twenty twenty five season. Then we're

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Speaker 2: going to give you the rest of the week off.

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Speaker 2: But when we come back from the July fourth holiday,

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Speaker 2: we flip the switches. We go to three a week.

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Speaker 2: We're going to start talking through the group of six conferences.

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Speaker 1: All this this is the time of year that I

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Speaker 1: like to call the Thai Romance season. Here we go,

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Speaker 1: Tie loves with his whole heart. Tie decides whether or

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Speaker 1: not Ty is like what was the show man? I remember? Okay,

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Speaker 1: So it was Lorenzo Lamas who was like a former

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Speaker 1: model actor. Right, he had the laser pointer where it

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Speaker 1: was called I almost called, like are you hot or not?

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Speaker 1: Or that was the website that there was? You can

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Speaker 1: look this up as I'm speaking almost positive Lorenzo Lamas.

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Speaker 1: I apologize if it was not Lorenzo Lamas with a

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Speaker 1: laser pointer, look up the name of the show, Ty.

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Speaker 1: We want to be accurate here. But he would decide

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Speaker 1: whether or not somebody was attractive enough, and while evaluating

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Speaker 1: to them, Let's be clear, not a picture. I don't

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Speaker 1: believe in person would circle problematic areas on their body,

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Speaker 1: like you can't be a nine because this is what

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Speaker 1: your knees look like. I believe it. Are you hot?

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Speaker 1: The search for America's Sexiest People?

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Speaker 2: And was it Lorenzo Lamas? It was lorenzol Did he

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Speaker 2: have a laser pointer? He did have a laser pointer yet,

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Speaker 2: oh my god.

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Speaker 1: The show was.

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Speaker 2: Widely criticized for its superficial premise yeh or judging problematic

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Speaker 2: elements to evaluating somebody to their face.

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Speaker 1: With a laser pointer. But I guess it's better than

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Speaker 1: doing it with a picture. You know, it's a little

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Speaker 1: more honest, I guess. But this is the time of

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Speaker 1: year where Ty is searching for hotness in this sport

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm just trying to, you know, play things

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Speaker 1: even handed. Ty I'm just trying to be as objective

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Speaker 1: as possible. But Tye allows himself to be intellectually aroused

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Speaker 1: by what he learns as he's studying college football. So

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Speaker 1: he's taking the proverbial laser pointer to you know, your Indiana's,

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Speaker 1: your NC States, your Stanford's, your USC's, your Oregons, and

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Speaker 1: he's deciding whether or not it gets his blood pumping.

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Speaker 2: I just sent you a completely ridiculous screen grab from

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Speaker 2: this show.

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Speaker 1: Yes, oh, and yeah, he's wearing the yellow tinted glasses,

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Speaker 1: which I don't know if that helped him see where

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Speaker 1: his laser was ending up and look, great head of hair,

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Speaker 1: attractive guy. But it was what we it was, my

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Speaker 1: guess is nineteen ninety eight, two thousand and three. I

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Speaker 1: don't know when. It was a different time, ty.

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Speaker 2: It was definitely a different ty It was two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three, by the way, so was.

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Speaker 1: Two thousand and three Rubenstein. So this is all a

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Speaker 1: preamble in a way of saying, uh, I guess we're

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Speaker 1: building our whole preview season out of a Lorenzo Lamis theme.

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Speaker 1: Now you can do that if we won. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's an option. It is an option.

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Speaker 2: We still have not necessarily put together our format. So

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Speaker 2: there is an opening here for Lamis. Should we be

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Speaker 2: ever so inclined?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we can talk about our laser point, I mean,

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Speaker 1: can we can come up with a laser pointer sound?

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Speaker 1: Even though I believe laser pointers were silent.

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Speaker 2: It was dubbed the Lorenzo Lamis flawfinder. Oh my god,

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Speaker 2: that's good branding. It's problematic thinking. It's good branding.

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Speaker 1: We can use that.

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Speaker 2: We can use the Dan Rubinstein and the Ty hilden

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Speaker 2: Brand flawfinder.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, the flawfinder, the laser pointer, audio laser pointer.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's a reference that everybody's gonna understand immediately

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Speaker 1: listening to a show in twenty twenty five, a twenty

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Speaker 1: two year old reality show that is looked back upon harshly.

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Speaker 1: We're going to using a college football theme out of it.

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Speaker 1: I want to use this now, I do too. I

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Speaker 1: want it came about organically. Yeah, we're ready. This is

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Speaker 1: how we put our content together.

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Speaker 2: Well, welcome back one and all, Hit follow, hit subscribe

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Speaker 2: if you enjoyed that Forballers dot com, rb Lars dot

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Speaker 2: com I'm using the sing song voice a little bit

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Speaker 2: more just for you, Dan Rubinstein. Yep, that is where

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Speaker 2: you can go get access to the shows a little

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Speaker 2: bit early without the ads playing the games. We're working

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Speaker 2: on the games. Those are going to be coming up

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Speaker 2: here as we get a little bit closer to the season.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to do this episode though for a couple

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Speaker 2: of years we haven't had a chance to do it.

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Speaker 2: But finally we gave ourselves a bit of an opening

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Speaker 2: here where we can bring our friend Tim Murray genuinely

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Speaker 2: our friend in the desert. Of course, Tim Murray works

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Speaker 2: for v SIN, also the host of the Vson College

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Speaker 2: Football Betting podcast. We have had questions about this. I

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Speaker 2: can't even tell you how many years running, people asking

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Speaker 2: us bring a betting guy on, Bring somebody who understands

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Speaker 2: sports gambling, understands lines, understands that side of the business.

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Speaker 1: I understand.

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Speaker 2: I know there is a balance that we need to

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Speaker 2: walk when we do an episode like this. Because we

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Speaker 2: have a good chunk of our listeners who don't care

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Speaker 2: at all about college football betting, we also have a

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Speaker 2: great number of people who do. Most of the people

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Speaker 2: who listen are probably somewhere in the middle. But we

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Speaker 2: have always taken the tact on this show that it's

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Speaker 2: useful information. Whether you bet or not, it doesn't matter

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Speaker 2: to us. But point spreads, win totals, things of that nature.

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Speaker 2: It's useful information. It helps guide the conversation. That's why

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Speaker 2: we've brought it up on this show quite literally every

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Speaker 2: year when we have previewed teams, every year, when we

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Speaker 2: have previewed games dating back to two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 1: We just think it's an interesting part of the sport.

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Speaker 1: That would be silly to fully ignore it. Yeah, it'd

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Speaker 1: be silly to ignore it. So we've incorporated that into

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Speaker 1: the way that we cover the sport, and over the

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Speaker 1: course of many years, we've gotten a variety of questions

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Speaker 1: as to what influences point spreads, How should I go

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Speaker 1: about betting?

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Speaker 2: Is a letdown look ahead sandwich really a real thing

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Speaker 2: that we should pay attention to, or is it just

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Speaker 2: these two idiots coming up with the SoundBite to play

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Speaker 2: on the podcast. Sure, stuff like that. We're gonna frame

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Speaker 2: it up. We're gonna pose it to Tim here over

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Speaker 2: the next hour. So we're gonna do a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a gambling preview, but we're not gonna go too

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Speaker 2: deep in the weeds that it's going to put you off.

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Speaker 2: If that's not your cup of tea, that makes sense.

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Speaker 1: It does, all right, Dan joining us now he is.

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Speaker 2: He's our friend in the desert. I don't know, true,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how else to classify this guy. He's

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Speaker 2: our friend in the desert. Tim Murray, one of the

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Speaker 2: affable hosts on the Vson Network, was on stage with us.

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Speaker 2: I believe we did a show in in DC.

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Speaker 1: See yeah, because he's formerly Annapolis.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and great memory, great memory, guys.

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Speaker 1: Tim Murray, how goes Vegas? My friend Vegas is good.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, It's kind of crazy to believe that I've been

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Speaker 3: out here going on five years.

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Speaker 1: Has it been that long?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? It has packed up the old uh Subaru in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the pandemic and drove across country and

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Speaker 3: we've been here ever since. So I still remember jumping

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Speaker 3: on stage with you fellas in front of a packed

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Speaker 3: house down there in DC. And I still remember being

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Speaker 3: on the set at NBC Sports Washington and my mention

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Speaker 3: started going nuts because you guys at the back end

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Speaker 3: of one of your podcasts, had your army tell me

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Speaker 3: to stop being a coward and go to the Muhlenberg

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Speaker 3: Salisbury game. And I could not understand for the life

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Speaker 3: of me why my mentions were going nuts. But I mean,

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Speaker 3: that's just the power of the solid verbat there. Man.

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Speaker 3: You guys tell them to do something, they'll do it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of this interview, if you've

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Speaker 2: got a secret verbal that you'd like to throw out,

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Speaker 2: this is a courtesy that we will extend to you

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Speaker 2: as one of our one of our preferred guests here

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Speaker 2: on the program.

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Speaker 3: I will I will have to think of it. I

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Speaker 3: do wonder. I am wearing my solid verbal hat beautiful,

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Speaker 3: and this, uh you know, this little ditty has has

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Speaker 3: made its rounds. I've I brought it to the Smurf

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Speaker 3: turf when I was doing the sidelines for the Potato Bowl.

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Speaker 3: I did. I did wear it last week when I

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Speaker 3: got a great tour of the San Jose State facilities.

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Speaker 3: Far as a couple of days ago. I did not

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Speaker 3: take a picture on the field there. And but this

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Speaker 3: bad boys made its ways around. It's gone to Disneyland.

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Speaker 3: So it's my number one hat right now. Boys, I'll

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Speaker 3: just say that's number Wow.

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Speaker 2: Merch dot Solid Verbal dot Com for those of you

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Speaker 2: listening at home watching along on YouTube, Yes you can

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Speaker 2: go and get yours available in many different colors. We

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Speaker 2: wanted to bring you on, Tim, because you know, as

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Speaker 2: we build to the start of the college football season,

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Speaker 2: and as Dan and I are just in throes of

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Speaker 2: recording some of our previews, we wanted to at least reference.

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Speaker 2: We wanted to at least make mention of what's going

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Speaker 2: on in the gambling world. Mindful of the fact that

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Speaker 2: we've got some listeners who care a great deal about it,

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Speaker 2: others who couldn't care less. But our standpoint here on

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Speaker 2: the show has always been that it's useful information. Going

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Speaker 2: way back when when we first started this thing, we

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Speaker 2: would always talk about point spreads in reference to games

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Speaker 2: that were upcoming win totals before the season, just as

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Speaker 2: a guide for how Vegas was thinking about some of

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Speaker 2: these teams that we were going to talk about. So

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Speaker 2: we wanted to bring you on as sort of our

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Speaker 2: trusted expert here to give us. I don't know that

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Speaker 2: side of things as you see them right now, because you,

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Speaker 2: of course our podcast in a successful host in your

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Speaker 2: own right. What are the betting markets telling you right now?

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Speaker 2: High level Key themes, key topics, things that maybe you expect,

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Speaker 2: others that maybe you didn't. What are the betting markets

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Speaker 2: telling you about the college football season in twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 3: You know, I would say one of the early themes

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Speaker 3: in the betting market has been the love for Clemson.

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Speaker 3: This is a team that I know, friend of your show,

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Speaker 3: Bill Conley, in his sp plus as let us know

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Speaker 3: that this is the number one team in returning production.

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Speaker 3: And I would say one of the early themes, at

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Speaker 3: least from the betting market is that you know, Clemson

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Speaker 3: is live to win the national championship. Now, I want

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Speaker 3: to put this into perspective. They're not the betting favorite

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Speaker 3: to win the national title. But when I look at

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Speaker 3: some of the odds that are out there, guys, they

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Speaker 3: have been one of the biggest movers. You know, They've

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Speaker 3: moved from as high as twenty to one earlier this

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Speaker 3: summer now down around twelve or fourteen to one. You

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Speaker 3: look at their odds to win the conference championship. That

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Speaker 3: was a bet that I made, I believe at plus

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Speaker 3: one sixty And now I understand, you know, some people

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Speaker 3: might know exactly what I'm talking about. To put that

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Speaker 3: into perspective, What does plus one sixty mean? Well, it

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Speaker 3: means if you put down ten dollars and you won

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Speaker 3: your bet, you win sixteen bucks and you're ten dollars back. Right,

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Speaker 3: you're not just giving that there laying juice. Meaning they

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Speaker 3: are the favorite, would mean if they were minus one fifteen,

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Speaker 3: you'd put down eleven dollars and fifty cents to win

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Speaker 3: ten dollars. So it's all fractionally based. If you're looking

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Speaker 3: at it from a future standpoint, and then you know,

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Speaker 3: you get into the long shots, right, you might see

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Speaker 3: plus ten thousand, Well what does that mean? It means

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Speaker 3: you put down one hundred bucks, you win ten thousand dollars.

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Speaker 3: So that that's kind of how it all plays out.

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Speaker 3: So back to your initial questions, I Clemson has been

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Speaker 3: one of the movers for sure when I look at

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Speaker 3: you know, their odds to win the ACC their odds

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Speaker 3: to win the National Championship, and you know, another one

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Speaker 3: of the kind of interesting things in my opinion heading

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Speaker 3: into this year is I think last year maybe opened

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Speaker 3: up the eyes a little bit more in that it

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Speaker 3: is more wide open than we thought. We had a

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Speaker 3: stretch from a betting standpoint where it felt like there

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Speaker 3: was not many much you know, air quotes value in

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Speaker 3: the futures market. There's no long shots. Now you can

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Speaker 3: do a long shot to make, you know, to win

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Speaker 3: their conference, whatever it may be. But I think Ohio

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Speaker 3: State is an eight. Notre Dame as a seven. Making

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Speaker 3: it to the National Championship Game a year ago, I

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Speaker 3: think has opened up the eyes that hey, maybe there

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Speaker 3: aren't super teams right now, and maybe Ohio State was

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Speaker 3: and they just got knocked off twice during the regular season.

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Speaker 3: But I think when you look at the odds board

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Speaker 3: right now, there is no you know, peak Alabama or

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Speaker 3: peak Georgia, if that makes sense. You know, Ohio State's

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Speaker 3: your betting favorite, but they're still at five to one.

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Speaker 3: You know. I think back to I think it was

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Speaker 3: the twenty twenty season when Alabama was just a juggernaut

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Speaker 3: and they won the national championship and they were five

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Speaker 3: to one pre season. I was like, that's a steal.

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Speaker 3: Right Now, Ohio State and Texas are both your co favorites.

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Speaker 3: But what's interesting, as you guys know and as your

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Speaker 3: listeners know, they play each other in Week one, so

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Speaker 3: one of their odds is going to shift in Week

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Speaker 3: one both one down and one up, right, and then

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Speaker 3: you know, I think two What is also interesting, and

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you guys have discussed I've discussed it at

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Speaker 3: nauseum on my podcast is look you look at Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Bama,

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame, if you want to go fur little further down,

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Speaker 3: Michigan Ole miss a lot of uncertainty of the quarterback position, right,

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Speaker 3: So I think that's from that's kind of interesting to

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Speaker 3: me from a gambling standpoint, is you know, I think

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Speaker 3: this year feels wide open, and the odds kind of

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Speaker 3: indicate that it is has the potential to be pretty

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Speaker 3: wide open this year.

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Speaker 1: Has there been anything different about this offseason, either because

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Speaker 1: of portal stuff or because you're two of a twelve

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Speaker 1: team playoff? You mentioned the wide open nature of last

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Speaker 1: season and the sort of novel like people didn't know

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Speaker 1: what to expect out of how teams were going to

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Speaker 1: look heading into and during a twelve team playoff. This

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Speaker 1: is the first post twelve team playoff off season. Have

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Speaker 1: you noticed anything different about this off season? You mentioned

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Speaker 1: obviously Clemson as a big favorite on the conference and

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Speaker 1: national level, but has the rhythm of the off season

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Speaker 1: been at all different with regard to I guess futures

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Speaker 1: in the way people are looking at the season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, just talking to folks in my world,

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Speaker 3: I do feel like, I don't want to say hesitancy.

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Speaker 3: And look, there's some sharp guys that I trust that

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Speaker 3: are firing away right away, but I do feel like

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Speaker 3: they've kind of wanted to let the dust settle a

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Speaker 3: little bit. And you know it's interesting too, is I've

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Speaker 3: gotten to know people on the other side of the counter,

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Speaker 3: right the people who are putting these up, and they've

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Speaker 3: gotten better at it, you know. And I'll give you

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Speaker 3: an example. And look, it might have just been a

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Speaker 3: one off, and who knows, but Indiana was as high

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Speaker 3: as two hundred to one to just make the play

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Speaker 3: off last year. And now I think when you look

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Speaker 3: at the odds board guys for to make the playoff odds,

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Speaker 3: there aren't a ton of teams in that realm. Now, look,

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Speaker 3: if you want to bet Stanford or Purdue at two

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Speaker 3: hundred to one to make the playoff, godspeed, you know.

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Speaker 3: I mean, but you think about an Indiana team whose

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Speaker 3: win total was five and a half a year ago,

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Speaker 3: and you know, now we look back on it, We're like, Wow,

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Speaker 3: that was a great bet. Nobody really believed it. But

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Speaker 3: I'll say this, a lot of people anticipated them to

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Speaker 3: have a pretty good season when you looked at the schedule,

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Speaker 3: when you looked at the track record of signetti, the

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Speaker 3: pieces they were bringing in. But just for a comparison's sake,

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Speaker 3: you know, Indiana, I had one listener send me a

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Speaker 3: ticket slip of him betting him a two hundred to one.

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Speaker 3: You know, I had someone from DraftKings sportsbook on my

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Speaker 3: podcast tell me that it was one hundred to one.

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Speaker 3: You know, these are the teams that are one hundred

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Speaker 3: to one to make the playoff, Jacksonville State, Wyoming, Buffalo, Bowling,

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Speaker 3: Green Troy. Like, it's the kind of the long shots

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Speaker 3: out of the G five. So I do wonder if

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Speaker 3: the if the you know, the odds makers are being

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Speaker 3: a little bit more cautious on those long shots to

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Speaker 3: make the playoffs, because now that we've seen how it

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Speaker 3: played out, guys you can see in Indiana make the

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Speaker 3: college football playoff as that long shot. So you know,

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Speaker 3: when you look at the odds board, at least at

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Speaker 3: DraftKings right now, and I think that's the only book

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Speaker 3: that has to make the playoff odds out there, You're

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Speaker 3: looking at very few Power for teams that have one

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Speaker 3: hundred to one or longer odds, and the teams that

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Speaker 3: are all kind of in that ballpark. As I mentioned Stanford,

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Speaker 3: who's believed to be, you know, maybe a three win

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Speaker 3: football team perdue with Barry Odom coming in that was

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Speaker 3: a terrible P four team a year ago. Wake Forest

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Speaker 3: they've got a new you know, sheriff in town. So

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Speaker 3: there's not a lot of P four teams in that

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Speaker 3: one hundred to one or longer odds. And I think

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Speaker 3: that's an adjustment to what we saw last year after

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Speaker 3: Indiana made their magical run to the playoff.

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Speaker 1: Well you sort of speak of the uncertainty of not

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Speaker 1: knowing what Signetti and Indiana are going to do. It's

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Speaker 1: it's obviously much more difficult given how much rosters change coaches,

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Speaker 1: it seems like they're changing a little bit less as

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Speaker 1: the sport sort of morphs into a newer version of itself.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps maybe you know, this is the year, you know,

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Speaker 1: seventeen Power Conference coaches are going to get fired. Who knows,

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Speaker 1: But have you noticed any interesting trends in terms of

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Speaker 1: either how sharpspat or what the conversation is around in

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Speaker 1: terms of how people who wager on college football approach

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Speaker 1: the timing of how they bet. Are they waiting a

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Speaker 1: certain number of weeks to like figure out what teams

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Speaker 1: are or aren't? Like what does the new world of

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Speaker 1: college football mean for people trying to evaluate who is

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Speaker 1: and isn't good?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's it's a great question. I think

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Speaker 3: they're all kind of, you know, adjusting on the fly

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Speaker 3: as we all Do you know, what value should we

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Speaker 3: put on a coordinator change? You know, when you think

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Speaker 3: to Ohio State, for example, they're five to one to

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Speaker 3: win the national championship. They're loaded from a roster standpoint,

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Speaker 3: but they've got a quarterback who's never taken really a

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Speaker 3: meaningful snap and Julian saying, or it's going to be

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Speaker 3: Lincoln kay Holts, who you know. Bobby Carpenter, former Ohio

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Speaker 3: State linebacker, was on my pod and he said, look,

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Speaker 3: this kid's really talented, and you know, maybe it's not

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Speaker 3: as lockdown as you think. And the fact that you know,

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Speaker 3: Ohio State a year ago had arguably the best coordinator

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Speaker 3: tandem in college football with Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles,

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Speaker 3: and they're both gone. So it's like, you know, how

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Speaker 3: much do you put into that? But then also how

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Speaker 3: much you just put into the stock that Ohio State

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Speaker 3: has been recruiting at an elite level and they arguably

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Speaker 3: have the two most talented players in college football, and

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Speaker 3: Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith. It's an interesting, you know,

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Speaker 3: dynamic when you when you think of it from that standpoint.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think you know, as you mentioned Dan,

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Speaker 3: you know, sharp guys, where are they looking to bet?

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Speaker 3: I'll give you an example. You know. I I am

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Speaker 3: a Notre Dame fan. I think all of you guys

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Speaker 3: know that, but I don't tend to bet on Notre

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Speaker 3: Dame all that often. But there was one shop out

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Speaker 3: there that had CJ. Carr at seventy five to one

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Speaker 3: to win the Heisman Trophy. And if you followed just

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Speaker 3: kind of closely to that team, you felt like, he's

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Speaker 3: probably going to be the starting quarterback for Notre Dame.

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Speaker 3: And it's not lockdown yet. Kenny Minshee could ultimately take

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Speaker 3: the job. But I bet it at seventy five to

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Speaker 3: one because I was under the assumption that Steve ANGELI

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Speaker 3: was probably going to transfer and he ultimately did, so

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Speaker 3: I think there's also you know, trying to read the

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Speaker 3: tea leaves and kind of jump the gun a little

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Speaker 3: bit on all right, where are we going to see this?

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Speaker 3: I'll say this real quickly though, I think it happens

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Speaker 3: more so in college basketball, where the portal movements one

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Speaker 3: player makes such a drastic difference in college basketball and

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Speaker 3: can shift the odds. So I do know some sharp

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Speaker 3: guys from the college basketball front that are trying to

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Speaker 3: kind of predict where certain players might ultimately go in

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Speaker 3: the transfer portal and try to get ahead of that

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Speaker 3: because you're going to see significant line movement, you know.

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Speaker 3: For example, I know I'm kind of going all over

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Speaker 3: the place, but yeah, when you see Kevin Durant get

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Speaker 3: traded in the NBA, I mean that massively shifted the

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Speaker 3: betting market. You know, Houston right now is the second

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Speaker 3: favorite to win the NBA Championship now that Kevin Durant's

402
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Speaker 3: on their roster. A little bit lower down, Desmond Baine,

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Speaker 3: he gets traded from Memphis to Orlando. And while the

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Speaker 3: casual fan of this podcast probably doesn't even know who

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Speaker 3: Desmond Baine is, but those odds were cut in half

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Speaker 3: according to one odds maker. I think from like forty

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Speaker 3: to one down to twenty to one. It just doesn't

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Speaker 3: really happen that way in football, right. I mean, yes,

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks are vitally important, and a team gets, you know,

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Speaker 3: a particular player in the portal, but you're not going

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Speaker 3: to see enormous shifts based off of one player. And

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Speaker 3: I think that's what's interesting too, is you know, now

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Speaker 3: that we're here in this portal era, you know, there

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Speaker 3: were a lot of folks early on, right that were

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Speaker 3: going fading Colorado in the early coach prime years with

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Speaker 3: the assumption of you know, this isn't going to work.

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Speaker 3: And look, they've gone over their win total both years

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Speaker 3: out of Colorado. So you know, I think everybody's kind

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Speaker 3: of trying to learn on the fly and what it

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Speaker 3: ultimately means. And I think right now, you know famous

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Speaker 3: last words, I think there's a little bit more understanding

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Speaker 3: of how it works. And then you look at a

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Speaker 3: team like I mentioned Clemson. They did dip their toe

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Speaker 3: into the portal a little bit, right, But what is

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Speaker 3: the biggest thing that is working in Clemson's favor. It's

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Speaker 3: they went out they added a big time decordinator in

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Speaker 3: Tom Allen, and they're number one in the country in

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Speaker 3: returning production. They've got a quarterback in Kid Klubnick that

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Speaker 3: is believed to be the best returning quarterback in college football.

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Speaker 1: How much do you believe in historical data, because again

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Speaker 1: this is we're looking at futures, right, so we could

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Speaker 1: pull up that. Let's just take down and Clemson as

433
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 1: the example that that Dabo Sweeney is, you know, twelve

434
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: and four hitting the over for Clemson's wind total during

435
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: his career. How much of historical data do you actually

436
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 1: care about? Do you have a threshold that like and

437
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: I'm not even talking about wagering yourself. I'm just saying,

438
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: like that you care to talk about because you think

439
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 1: it's important for your audience. And how much do you

440
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: just go year by year? This is what their schedule is,

441
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: this is what their roster is, this is what the

442
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 1: new coordinator is. Do you care about historical data? Or

443
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: if you know somebody is you know, Kirk Farrens has

444
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: been there for so long that you're like, man, that

445
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,679
Speaker 1: sample size is crazy. He's twenty three and three not

446
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 1: hitting you know the wind total? Or I guess not

447
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: hitting that would be missing the wind total? What, however

448
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 1: you want to phrase it? Do you care or is

449
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: there some value? Little value, a ton of value? Where

450
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 1: do you come down?

451
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 3: Well, I actually I think there there is some value.

452
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 3: Now they're also weird trends, right, Oh, you know on

453
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 3: every October twenty seventh, you know, Alabama covers the point spread.

454
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: That is ridiculous. It's it's kind of fun fodder for

455
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: social media. You know, you think about this random ass

456
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 3: thing with you know the Tyrese Haliburt and Torn Achilles.

457
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 3: Well you know that Jason Tatum, Damian Lillard and tyre'se Haliburton.

458
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 3: Oh where zero? What do I do with that?

459
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: Nothing?

460
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 3: But I'll say this, Dan is you know, for example,

461
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 3: I think you know, looking at Marcus Freeman real quickly.

462
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 3: Now it's a little bit different because they're going to

463
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 3: be a favorite in every single game this year. But

464
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 3: if you look at so far through his first four

465
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 3: years at Notre Dame, I don't have the exact numbers

466
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 3: in front of me, but he is fantastic as an

467
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 3: underdog against the spread. He's fantastic in close points spreads.

468
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: But as we all know, and I'm sure, Dan reminds

469
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 3: tie regularly. They did lose to Northern Illinois, they did

470
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,400
Speaker 3: lose to Marshall, they lost to a terrible Stanford team

471
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 3: in year number one. And you look at some of

472
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 3: the games that have been a little bit too close

473
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 3: for comfort early on in his career. Now there's the

474
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 3: caveat he was a young head coach. Is he learning

475
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 3: on the fly? Is he going to start to take

476
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 3: care of business more regularly? You started to see that

477
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 3: at the end of last season where they were covering

478
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: at a very strong clip. So yeah, I do look

479
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 3: at some historical data. I'll give you another interesting one.

480
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 3: Diego Pavia. If you look at him as the starting

481
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: quarterback of Vanderbilt, and I know he made some you know,

482
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 3: braggadocious comments because that's just who Diego Pavia is. But

483
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 3: I think in the gambling community he's kind of looked

484
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 3: at us like this this godlike figure. Because last year

485
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 3: at Vanderbilt he was eight and two against the spread

486
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: as an underdog. And then the two games guys that

487
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 3: Vanderbilt was favored in they lost to Georgia State and

488
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 3: they did not cover against Ball State. So this is

489
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,239
Speaker 3: a team in Vanderbilt that clearly kind of punches up

490
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: in their weight class. Now, this is the last thing

491
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: I'll say about this. Oddsmakers aren't dummies, right, They're going

492
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: to adjust and they're going to realize, all right, these

493
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 3: particular teams maybe thrive in the this dog role and

494
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 3: you tend to have to pay the tax. So, you know,

495
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 3: as last year went on, I believe I remember correctly,

496
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 3: they did not cover. There was one game that Vanderbilt

497
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 3: did not cover, and I felt like everybody was jumping

498
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 3: on Vanderbilt and became kind of a popular underdog. So

499
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: to answer your question, Dan, I do think historical data

500
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 3: data can certainly play a positive, you know, especially if

501
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 3: you're looking at how do they fare as an underdog?

502
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,719
Speaker 3: How do they fare as a big favorite? You know.

503
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 3: For example, I was reading through Phil Steele's magazine and

504
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 3: there's a pretty good situational spot, as you guys like

505
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 3: to say, sandwich spot. Ye. And when you look at

506
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 3: Iowa State, they play farmer geddon over in Ireland, they

507
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 3: don't take a bye, they come home, they're going to

508
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 3: play South Dakota prior to the Syhawks. So a really

509
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 3: good sandwich spot. And then what Phil Steele pointed out

510
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 3: from a historical data point is that Iowa status three

511
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 3: and ten against the spread against FCS opponents. So they

512
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 3: and to take those FCS foes a little bit more lightly, right,

513
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: maybe it's a you know, a glorified scrimmage, whatever it's

514
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 3: going to be. So recognizing that, you know, Iowa State

515
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 3: historically has not blown out FCS opponents. And then on

516
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 3: the flip side, you look at someone like Kirk Signetty,

517
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 3: guys who last year really knew the point spread and

518
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: I believe they covered every single game outside of Week

519
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 3: one when they were a favorite. They were, you know,

520
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 3: covering the number. And then some on a regular basis. So,

521
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 3: you know, recognizing coaches trends. You know, coaches will never

522
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 3: say it, but they know the point spread, right, and

523
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 3: they and sometimes there's coaches out there who want to

524
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 3: make sure they take care of business.

525
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 2: Wow, Look we're doing a show here, Tim Dan and

526
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 2: I tend to be emotional when we are making our picks. No,

527
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: our picks should not be taken as gospel, because clearly,

528
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: if you've listened to the show over the years, you

529
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 2: know that I've had a bit of a bad run,

530
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: let's say, over the life couple years with respect to

531
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,239
Speaker 2: making my picks. But what do you think when you

532
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 2: hear us talk about things like let down, look ahead sandwiches?

533
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: Because if you go by the solid very ball, it's

534
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: a thing. It's something that matters. Body blow, Yeah, it's

535
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: something that matter. All of these little I don't know inventions,

536
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 2: these are things that we've come up with that our

537
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,959
Speaker 2: audience tends to gravitate towards. You talk to actual betters,

538
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 2: which I have, they look at you like you got

539
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: two heads. So what do you think as obviously a

540
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,479
Speaker 2: big fan of college football, but also somebody who is

541
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 2: very steeped in this world of pro professional actual gamblers

542
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 2: who pay their bills with this sort of thing.

543
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: Now let me preface it. I am not a pro

544
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 3: better I am. I'm like you guys. I have a job.

545
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 3: I work for a gambling network, But I am not

546
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 3: a professional better. There are people who are much smarter

547
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 3: than me when it comes to that. But I want

548
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 3: to say this, I am a big situational handicapper. I

549
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 3: think it is massive in college football, and I know

550
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 3: I keep bringing it up. But when you think back

551
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 3: to last year, did I think Notre Dame would lose

552
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 3: to Northern Illinois. Absolutely not. Did I think they would

553
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 3: cover a four touchdown spread a week removed from beating

554
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 3: Texas A and M on the road, No, I didn't.

555
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 3: I thought that was a massive letdown spot. I do

556
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: believe in situational handicapping, and look, I did a podcast

557
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 3: a week ago, guys where I spent fifteen minutes looking

558
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 3: at early potential situational angles, and not all of them

559
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 3: are going to come home. I'll give you an example.

560
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 3: How about this spot in early season. You've got Arkansas

561
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 3: on the road at Ole Miss and then two weeks

562
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 3: later they host Notre Dame. Friend of mine who works

563
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 3: at the Action Network, Colin Wilson, lives in Fayetteville, and

564
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 3: he said they're already talking about Notre Dame's trip to Arkansas.

565
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 3: In the middle of that, they have to go on

566
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 3: the road to take on Memphis. I mean, that's a

567
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 3: huge game from Memphis. You're getting a power four team

568
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 3: into your home stadium, and it's a It's a great spot.

569
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 3: Now once again oddsmakers realize that there's going to be

570
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 3: a tax that you have to pay. But you know,

571
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 3: there's a lot of different people who go about betting

572
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 3: very differently, and that's the beauty of sports gambling, right.

573
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 3: I tend to like situational handicapping, right, you know, desperation

574
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 3: spot all of that. Now, you can't go just want

575
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 3: all in on one particular angle. But there's a lot

576
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 3: of people out there that are numerically based. I mentioned

577
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: Bill Connley. He's got a you know, his system. His

578
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 3: spits out to his numbers and that's what he's going

579
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: to bet. He's going to try to find his edges

580
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 3: based off of numbers. But I'm going to more often

581
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: than not, you know, look at a situation that I

582
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 3: look to bet. And then and lastly, guys, you know

583
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 3: the reason I got into sports betting, believe it or not,

584
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 3: it was there was a segment in DC with a

585
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: radio host that I work with. His name's Kevin Sheen,

586
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 3: and he is very close with Scott Van Pelt. So

587
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 3: he and Scott Van Pelt bet very similarly. And Van

588
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 3: Pelt does his winners, you know, every Thursday night on

589
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 3: his show, and it's always going to be dogs. Very

590
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 3: rarely will you pick a favorite. But what led us,

591
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: what led me to this kind of unique way of betting,

592
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 3: was calling it a stinky line, a little fishy line, right,

593
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 3: and you look at it and you're like, h that

594
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to feel accurate. And then you just kind

595
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: of you kind of put your finger up to the

596
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 3: wind and you're like, all right, what are people saying

597
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 3: about this game? And everybody seems to be on one side,

598
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 3: and that's the old contrarian betting, right, you go the

599
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 3: opposite way, you know. So look, contrarian betting, situational betting,

600
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 3: betting based off your numbers. If there was something that

601
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 3: made us hit at one hundred percent, we'd all be

602
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: doing it and we'd all be living on islands out there.

603
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 3: So you know that however you want to do it.

604
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 3: But you know, I've certainly texted Tie a time or

605
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: two and be like, TYE wouldn't go there. We wouldn't

606
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: go there. That's a very short, suspicious line.

607
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: And sometimes you like leaning into the stink or avoiding

608
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 1: the stink.

609
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 3: Embracing the stink is something that I like to say.

610
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 3: You know, if if the line seems wrong, you steer

611
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 3: into it, you grab that stinky line. So look, there's

612
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 3: so many different theories of how people want to bet,

613
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 3: but those are two of the ways that I do

614
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 3: bet the stinky line and also kind of the contrarian

615
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 3: sandwich spot. Maybe I stole it from you guys, but

616
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 3: my producer last Saturday or last year, excuse me, on

617
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 3: my Saturday Tailgate show created a segment we called it

618
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: the Murray Delicatessen, and we talked about sandwich spots. So

619
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 3: you know a lot of it. There's there's there's angles

620
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: always out there to to take a look at, you know,

621
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: from a betting standpoint.

622
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: Just for our audience here, which plays in our run

623
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: the Board game, which is a pickup game against the

624
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: spread out in our Patreon for ballers dot com up

625
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 2: that it needs any extra plug here, But what is

626
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: your formula when you are determining which side of a

627
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: bet you want to go on? I mean, obviously there

628
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 2: are some spots that, as we've discussed here, jump out

629
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: to you. Whether it's a stinky line or a situational spot.

630
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: These things tend to be fairly obvious. But for games

631
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 2: that aren't. If you're just looking at a point spread

632
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 2: and one team is favored by seven and it feels

633
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 2: about right, what are like those points of information that

634
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 2: you would use to guide you to help pick one

635
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: side over the other.

636
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I mean, look, you don't have to

637
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 3: bet every game obviously. That is the beauty of college

638
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 3: football is we have so many games out there that

639
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 3: you don't have to bet every side. But you know,

640
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: when you're playing in a pick them pool or something

641
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 3: like that, like you guys do with your your listeners, Yeah,

642
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 3: sometimes you just kind of trust your gut. Maybe a

643
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 3: little bit looked that way, but yeah, I mean look,

644
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 3: more often than not, I wouldn't say I'm a blind

645
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 3: underdog better, but I like to grab the points as

646
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 3: much as I possibly can. But now there's gonna be

647
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 3: spots where you're gonna want to, you know, lay lay

648
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 3: the chalk. So yeah, it's you know, as you'll hear

649
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 3: all the time, it's you know, case by case basis

650
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 3: however it's going to be. But yeah, I think, you know,

651
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: when you look at a point spread, I don't know

652
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: if I have a hard and fast breakdown of where

653
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 3: I go. Look, there are a lot of people in

654
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 3: my line of work that make their own power ratings.

655
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 3: I do not, you know, I trust in you know,

656
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: what odds makers put out there and kind of decipher,

657
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 3: you know. I think also to. One of the interesting

658
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 3: things kind of how you go about betting is I've historically,

659
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 3: as I look back at my bets, my Week one

660
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 3: tends to be one of my worst weeks. I don't

661
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: know what it is. I think I need to kind

662
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: of get a little bit more information under my belt.

663
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 3: And I also think too, you know, the overreaction to

664
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: what you saw last is such a such a commonplace,

665
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 3: you know, and from better And it's not just college football,

666
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: it's all sports, right. You know, you see a team win,

667
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: you know, forty two to nothing one week, and you

668
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 3: all right, they're going to be the betting favorite, and

669
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 3: then they're they're an underdog and you're like, wait, that's wrong.

670
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 3: And then they go out and they get blown out.

671
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: You got got to look into games. You got to

672
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 3: you know, you know, I know Phil Steele does this

673
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 3: a lot. He looks at you know, the teams that

674
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 3: are probably going to regress, right, is the turnover margin,

675
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 3: you know, out of out of whack one way or

676
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 3: the other. Oh my gosh, this team is minus fourteen

677
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 3: in the turnover margin. If they just don't turn the

678
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 3: ball over, they might win this game. And you do

679
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 3: see that certainly from time to time. So I think too,

680
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 3: to kind of go back to Tye, how you go

681
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 3: about it and why I feel like I tend to

682
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 3: be successful as the year goes on. I think, looking

683
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 3: at some of that data, what is what's the outlier here?

684
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 3: Did this team win you know, a game where they

685
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 3: were out gained by two hundred yards or did they

686
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 3: were they plus four in the turnover margin and they

687
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 3: won by two points probably indicating it probably shouldn't have

688
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 3: won that game. Do we utilize that to our advantage

689
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 3: as a better So? I think, you know, that's that's

690
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 3: why I think I tend to be better certainly as

691
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: a as a year goes on. And then lastly, I'll

692
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: say this, and I know you guys have done your

693
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 3: Bowl pick'ems forever. I think have had a successful bowl

694
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,959
Speaker 3: season like five or six straight years. I mean, bowl

695
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 3: season motivation is such a massive thing in these smaller bowls.

696
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: Now it gets challenging because, you know, not that long ago,

697
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 3: when the portal wasn't as rampant as it was, you

698
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 3: would look at a you know, a MAX school playing

699
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 3: a P four school and you'd be like, we're going

700
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 3: to take the Max school because they're motivated to play

701
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 3: a P four school. Now a lot of those school

702
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 3: their best players are all in the portal trying to

703
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: go to P four teams. So it's not as you know,

704
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,439
Speaker 3: cut and dry as maybe it used to be. But yeah,

705
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 3: Bull season, you talk about motivation, man, that is a

706
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:53,439
Speaker 3: that is a driving factor. There is no doubt Bowl

707
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: season is a is a clear motivational handicap for sure.

708
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 3: I mean you talk to pro betters, they just completely

709
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 3: throw out their numbers more often than not. Now the

710
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 3: playoff is different, obviously, but they just eliminate their numbers

711
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 3: because it's just it's impossible to know who's going to be,

712
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: you know, geared up to be in the you know,

713
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 3: the Frisco Bowl day night before Christmas.

714
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 2: It's so funny to hear you talk about your tendencies

715
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 2: because I find for myself I'm the exact opposite. And

716
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: I've joked about it on this show before. I am

717
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 2: a low information better. I do really well in September.

718
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: I do really well the first two weeks of the season.

719
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: If I were to shut everything down after September, I

720
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 2: would be much better off for it. You're in your

721
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 2: own head, ty, it's what analysis by over your you.

722
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 3: Already you said it. You can't get over what you

723
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 3: saw last You've got to remove from the brain what

724
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 3: you saw last Saturday and recognize that there's going to

725
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 3: be whether it's you know, I'm a big believer in

726
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 3: you know, regression, whether it's positive or negative, things tend

727
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 3: to come back. And you know, when you think out

728
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 3: a team like now there they are a team that

729
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 3: defy that logic. And once again, you know, I remember,

730
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 3: you know, a lot of us in the betting world

731
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 3: were continuing to try to go at Signetti last year,

732
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 3: being like, all right, we're gonna we're gonna get him

733
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 3: here Maryland catching.

734
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: Sun end soon, yeah yeah.

735
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 3: And then you know they would cover with ease there.

736
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's us. I mean, that's the beauty of

737
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 3: gambling man. And even if you're not a better I

738
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 3: just think looking at the point spread tends to be

739
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 3: so fascinating, Like what was the point spread in this one?

740
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 3: Oh wow, that's pretty interesting that they were a touchdown

741
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: underdog and they're winning by twenty one points.

742
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 1: You know, it's almost like you're saying I mean, you

743
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: said emotional, but like everybody knows this about Tye he's romantic, right,

744
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: of course that ty loves with his whole heart. So

745
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: if he sees Kansas State win a big game in

746
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: week three or week four, come week seven or eight,

747
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: Tye is just like, I still believe, right, I still

748
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: think even if there's three weeks consecutively of evidence to

749
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 1: the contrary, Ty's like, I'm gonna fight for this relationship.

750
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 3: Now. Every Johnson's hair just it's it's romantic. It's just romantic.

751
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 1: I'm curious. You have the data. Everybody has the data.

752
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: If you want to look up who's good against the spread,

753
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: who's not good against the spread? You look at the

754
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 1: teams who tend to be terrible against the spread over

755
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 1: the course of a season, especially once you're eight, nine, ten,

756
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: eleven weeks in or whatever, and those teams tend to

757
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 1: be the ones who looked good last year and what

758
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: you mentioned, you know, having a short memory here, looked

759
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 1: good last year and sort of fell off a cliff

760
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 1: this year, especially on defense, it seems. Is there a

761
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: point of the year where you where people who do

762
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 1: this professionally say to themselves, Okay, I know we had

763
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: high hopes for Blank, but it's now weak this and

764
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 1: we have to stop. We have to be real and

765
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: live in the moment.

766
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: Now I'm pulling up, so I track every one of

767
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: my liafe.

768
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: Last year was Arizona, right, Arizona were like, well, they

769
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: got the best receiver, they got the quarterback back, and

770
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: they were gone awful against the spread last year as

771
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 1: they collapsed with a new coach.

772
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 3: Well, I'll give you another one that was terrible against

773
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 3: the spread was Liberty. Liberty a year removed from you

774
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 3: know their run Oregon. Oregon destroyed Liberty. I mean they

775
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 3: ruined them, you know, beating them in that bowl game.

776
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 3: But they were a team that we all saw make

777
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 3: the College Football Playoff, believed to be just that much

778
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: better than everyone in Conference USA. And last year they

779
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 3: went three to nine against the spread, and they were

780
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 3: a team that you know, I fell for it. I

781
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 3: fell for I think mid season I ended up betting

782
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 3: them to win the conference because I was thinking they're

783
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 3: just better. But sometimes you know, it doesn't work out

784
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: that easily, right, There's not always going to be that

785
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 3: positive regression in that regard, but you know it is

786
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: worth noting. Right, you look at a team like Florida State,

787
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 3: for example, and you know, you got the comments from

788
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 3: Thomas Castianos as he now heads to Florida State from

789
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 3: Boston College. And you know, last year, guys, Florida State

790
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 3: opens up in Dublin, loses to Georgia Tech. And then

791
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 3: that number, I want to say opened I think as

792
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 3: high as twenty three in favor of Florida State against

793
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 3: Boston College, and I want to say, went all the

794
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 3: way down to sixteen and Boston and Boston College won

795
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: the game outright, right. So Florida State was one of

796
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 3: those teams where the market just couldn't adjust them fast enough.

797
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 3: And if you were just blindly fading Florida State, you

798
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 3: were making a ton of money. And then on the

799
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 3: flip side, we mentioned Indiana. Indiana ended up being a

800
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 3: team that just continued to cover and they ended up going,

801
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: you know, nine and four against the spread, and I'm

802
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 3: looking at it right now. They had the best cover

803
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,919
Speaker 3: margin in college football. They covered games. So once again,

804
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 3: let's say the point spread is seven. They covered games

805
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 3: by an average of twelve point eight points per game,

806
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 3: meaning a seven point spread on average. They beat that spread.

807
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 3: They won by twenty points. So that just tells you

808
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 3: that the market was just off in Indiana, so you'll

809
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: see it all the time. And this is where I

810
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 3: you know, I'm a bit stubborn when it comes to this.

811
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 3: When you start to see the trends on Twitter and

812
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,240
Speaker 3: you start to hear from your neighbor and he's telling

813
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 3: you that you know, so and so has covered six

814
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,399
Speaker 3: straight games, I'm like, all right, it's time to get off. Right.

815
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 3: It's like when your parents started doing something when you

816
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 3: were in middle school and you're like, whoa that is?

817
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 3: That's no longer cool. So it is kind of funny

818
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 3: where that's just my brain where once I start to

819
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 3: see the people kind of pointing out a statistical trend

820
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 3: from an ATS standpoint, that's where I'm like, all right,

821
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 3: I got to get off or I got to go

822
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 3: on the other side. So well, once again, that's just

823
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 3: how my kind of crazy brain works. But yeah, I

824
00:41:56,320 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 3: mean that's that's something too, where you know, odds makers

825
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 3: have power ratings and they live by those power ratings

826
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 3: and they're going to adjust obviously, but it's hard to

827
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 3: overreact to one game. So Florida State, for example, they

828
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 3: go twelve to zero in you know, twenty twenty three,

829
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 3: and then we had no idea that they were going

830
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 3: to be that tragically bad last year, and once again,

831
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 3: not only did they go what two and ten straight up,

832
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 3: but I think they went to eight and two against

833
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 3: the spread because the market is trying to adjust fastly,

834
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 3: but they don't want to overreact to what we saw.

835
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 3: You know. Okay, they lost to Georgia Tech and Ireland.

836
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 3: All right, no big deal. Let's see how they do

837
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: against Boston College. Woh, they lost to Boston College. Now

838
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 3: we have to readjust and change our power ratings. So

839
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 3: they're trying to change on the fly, but they don't

840
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 3: want to change too much because then, you know, sharp

841
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 3: guys might come in and say, you guys shouldn't have

842
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 3: done this. You overreacted this too much, and we're going

843
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 3: to you know, pound you. On the other side, are

844
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 3: there ratings ratings?

845
00:42:56,160 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: Are there people whose power ratings are more accurate over time?

846
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: Just in terms of like, Okay, this is my model,

847
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: this is my algorithm, this is my system or whatever,

848
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: and it has proved to be a more successful view

849
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 1: of who is and who isn't trustworthy in college football

850
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: than my competitors.

851
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 3: I mean, every pro better out there is hoping that

852
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 3: their system is got some edges, right, So I don't know.

853
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,399
Speaker 3: I mean, look, a lot of pro betters we don't

854
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 3: even know who they are, you know. But there's a

855
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 3: lot of people out there that, you know, I'm not

856
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 3: going to name them, but there's plenty of handicappers. I

857
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 3: have a bunch on my show that they have respected

858
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,879
Speaker 3: ratings and sometimes there's going to be a big discrepancy

859
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 3: in their power rating versus the market, and that's going

860
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 3: to lead them to a bet. So I don't know,

861
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 3: if if if I can name you one particular person

862
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 3: that you know, well, even like the odds makers, right,

863
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 3: the odds makers have their they yeah, they have ratings.

864
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: They have rankings where it's just like, yeah, Caesar's or

865
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 1: whoever was way lower on Arizona State than every everybody

866
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 1: else and that paid off.

867
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you'll see it, you know, Dan, when you

868
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 3: look at you know, different books that are out there.

869
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 3: My studio is inside the Circus Sports Book. They're they're

870
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 3: thought to be probably one of the sharpest books in

871
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 3: the world, if not the sharpest book in the world.

872
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 3: So you know, you look around and that and that's

873
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 3: what's kind of interesting. And you'll hear people like on Vsen.

874
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 3: We always say always shop around, right, and you know

875
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 3: this is something too. If you're just getting into gambling

876
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 3: and you know you're you're a twenty dollars a game,

877
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:33,720
Speaker 3: better whatever it is, whatever you feel, it doesn't matter.

878
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 3: But I always say this, you know, always look around.

879
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 3: You know, we as a society will drive. We'll drive

880
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 3: an extra ten miles if I can save you know,

881
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 3: two cents on gas, when in reality, probably driving that

882
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 3: far just was a waste of money. But at the

883
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 3: end of the day, it's in our minds that I've

884
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 3: got to get the cheapest price out there. But when

885
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 3: it comes to gambling, I feel like people are like, well,

886
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 3: what's the difference between seven and a half and eight?

887
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 3: It's like, well, over time, that's going to come back

888
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 3: and bite you in the butt. So you always, as

889
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 3: I always look around, don't just settle because it's more convenient,

890
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 3: you know, get as many outs as possible.

891
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 1: I think that's a good life philosophy.

892
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, when you think about you know, Dan your state

893
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 3: in Illinois or tie your state in Pennsylvania. There's so

894
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 3: many books out there, whether it be DraftKings, FanDuel, you know,

895
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 3: Bet mgm et cetera, et cetera. That just look at

896
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 3: all of them. More often than not, guys, they're they're

897
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 3: going to have the same number. You know, you're not

898
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 3: going to see it off all that much, but there

899
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 3: are going to be differences in the futures market, you know,

900
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 3: when you look at hey, I like, you know, a

901
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 3: long shot Heisman bet that I made. Is it going

902
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 3: to come home? Probably not? But I bet Devin dan

903
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 3: Pier to win the Heisman Trophy as he goes to Utah,

904
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 3: He's one hundred to one at DraftKings. He's like fifty

905
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 3: to one everywhere else. Don't just settle and be like, well,

906
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 3: fifty to one is the same as one hundred to one. No,

907
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 3: it's it's double doublely better. You know, at so always

908
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 3: around and if you can, you know, it's kind of

909
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 3: tedious at times, but just just check your apps and

910
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 3: see if you can get a little bit of difference,

911
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: because there's a there's certainly a big difference between you know,

912
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 3: two and a half and three, six and a half

913
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 3: and seven, and if you can get that better number,

914
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 3: certainly it's it's definitely worth an over time. While you

915
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:21,760
Speaker 3: may you know, I hear it all the time. Well,

916
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 3: I just I just laid the money line instead of

917
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 3: you know, taking the points. Okay, and that's that's your prerogative,

918
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 3: and maybe you'll hit more often than not. But as

919
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: you continue to do this time and time again, over

920
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 3: years and years and years, you're gonna get bit in

921
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 3: the butt if you're just only betting the money lines

922
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 3: as opposed to taking the points.

923
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 1: What's the least efficient way to wager on college football props? Parlays?

924
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 1: You know what? What are you just like, Hey.

925
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: This is a teazers or here it is teasers? Never

926
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 3: tease college football? Look, okay. In the NFL, teasers have actually,

927
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 3: over time become a profitable endeavor. And I'll give you

928
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 3: an example. I'll give you kind of.

929
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 1: Just define teaser, by the way, for the people, so

930
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: thank you.

931
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:08,359
Speaker 3: A teaser is when you utilize points and you can

932
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:13,240
Speaker 3: manipulate the line. So your standard teaser is two team

933
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 3: six point teaser. And in the NFL these have become

934
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 3: profitable and sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly because in the NFL

935
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 3: the margins are so razor tight and the games are

936
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:32,760
Speaker 3: going to tend to fall in there. So in the NFL,

937
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 3: if you're teasing The belief is you want to get

938
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: through what are key numbers? Right, key numbers are three

939
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,479
Speaker 3: and seven. Those are the most key numbers. That's what

940
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 3: games land on the most. So for example, I'll just

941
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 3: use random teams. If the Philadelphia Eagles are a one

942
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 3: and a half point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs,

943
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,200
Speaker 3: you can utilize a six point teaser and take the

944
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:59,760
Speaker 3: Philadelphia Eagles, move them through three, move them through seven,

945
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 3: and now you've got the Eagles as a seven and

946
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 3: a half point underdog. But it's not that easy. You

947
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 3: got to find another dance partner, right, So you got

948
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: to find another team that you feel like. Maybe the

949
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 3: Bills are a seven and a half point favorite against

950
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 3: the Dolphins. So we're going to take the Bills and

951
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 3: we're going to move them through seven and three, move

952
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 3: them down, and now I've got the Bills minus one

953
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 3: and a half and the Eagles plus seven and a

954
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 3: half and both have to hit in order for me

955
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 3: to win my bet. So in college football, go ask

956
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 3: an odds maker. They'll tell you the answer. They'll tell

957
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 3: you never tease in college football. There's too much volatility

958
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 3: in college football. So you know, look, parlays are fun.

959
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 3: We like to put together, you know, our five leg parlay,

960
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 3: you know, and try to hit on a big cash.

961
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 3: And if that's what you want to do your recreational

962
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 3: you know, teach their own I'm not going to tell

963
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 3: you not to do it, but for a teaser, it's

964
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 3: just there's so much volatility out there in college football

965
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 3: where it's just it's not gonna be worth it to

966
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 3: utilize it. And when you look at the juice that

967
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 3: you have to pay, for example, in the NFL, juice

968
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 3: meaning what the house's take is going to be. In

969
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 3: the NFL, they've moved the juice of standard two team

970
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 3: six point teasers to anywhere from like minus one twenty

971
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 3: to minus one forty. They don't want you to play them.

972
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 3: That's why they've moved it that way. If you go

973
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 3: play like a college football teaser, there's like no juice.

974
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 3: It's like even money. It's a hint from the books

975
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 3: being like, sure, we'll take your money on this because

976
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 3: this won't come home more often than not. So look,

977
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 3: books love when you play parlays because it's harder to

978
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 3: hit parlays, right, you gotta hit, you gotta hit four

979
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 3: legs of five legs, six legs. Look, I'm not gonna lie.

980
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 3: I play them from time to time, some moneyline parlays

981
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 3: I put together favorites. But in college football, you guys

982
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:56,720
Speaker 3: known as well as anybody, the weeks that we expect

983
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 3: there to be no chaos, there's utter.

984
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 2: Chaos, the quiet ones, right, it's always a quince.

985
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 3: You know. So yeah, do not tease college football. Let

986
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: me just that's my PSA. Do not tease college football.

987
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 1: There's I don't know if this is a fallacy. I

988
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 1: don't know if there's actual value in it. Do you

989
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 1: find it to be the case in the conversations you

990
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 1: have that hyper focusing on smaller conferences is valuable? Or

991
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 1: is football so big that the people who truly care

992
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,360
Speaker 1: so that in this the book makers, the odds makers

993
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: like there they know what they're talking about with the

994
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 1: Conference USA lines and the Mountain West lines and FCS lines,

995
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 1: Or is there actual like are do these some of

996
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 1: these games sort of exists in the shadows mathematically, and

997
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 1: if you really lock in on a smaller conference you

998
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 1: can succeed.

999
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 3: I think there is some validity to that. You know,

1000
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,879
Speaker 3: if you are only focusing on the MAC I think

1001
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,399
Speaker 3: you might find yourself having an edge. Now, I think

1002
00:50:55,440 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 3: it's more more applicable to college basket because there's so

1003
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 3: many teams and you know, odds makers are just going

1004
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 3: to trust their power ratings and probably not look at

1005
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:11,359
Speaker 3: situational spots if you are focused in on you know,

1006
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 3: the NYC or the Patriot League. I think there is

1007
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 3: an edge to be had in college basketball, for sure.

1008
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 3: I think there still is the potential to look around

1009
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: in the MAC, in the CUSA if you want to

1010
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 3: divulge in the FCS. FCS numbers move very quickly, you know,

1011
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 3: meaning they're going to trust the bets that come in

1012
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 3: a lot, and they're going to move those numbers rapidly,

1013
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 3: you know, sharp money. Look, I don't move lines, right,

1014
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,760
Speaker 3: you guys don't move lines. The guys that are respect

1015
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 3: for yourself, Well that's true. I can't speak for Dan Tye. You.

1016
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 3: I don't think you.

1017
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 1: Might move markets tie. Everybody knows this, but yeah.

1018
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 3: It's interesting. And look, that's also something to note. Right,

1019
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 3: you'll hear people like me or others saw about like

1020
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 3: sharp action that is coming in when a line moves.

1021
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 3: That is typically sharp action the public now, not all

1022
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 3: the time, but more often than not, the sharp action

1023
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 3: is the one that moves lines right. The public better

1024
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 3: is not going to move line. Sports books are okay

1025
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 3: taking a stand like they if they see that, you know,

1026
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 3: eighty percent of recreational betters are on, you know, Florida

1027
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 3: State plus twelve and a half against Alabama, probably not

1028
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,399
Speaker 3: going to move that line because they're okay, they want

1029
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:34,759
Speaker 3: to win, they want to beat the better at the

1030
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 3: end of the day. Now, if they see a bunch

1031
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:41,879
Speaker 3: of betters that they respect coming in on Florida State

1032
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 3: plus twelve and a half, that's when you're going to

1033
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 3: see the number move right. So that is you know,

1034
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 3: I don't want to say it's a common misconception, but

1035
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 3: a lot of the time, you know people say, you know,

1036
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 3: sportsbooks want fifty to fifty action. That's not always true.

1037
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 3: You know that they're going to want to take a stand,

1038
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 3: and you know you'll you'll hear like I have odds

1039
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: makers on all the time, and you know they'll say, hey,

1040
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 3: it was a great weekend for us. You know we

1041
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 3: got this underdog home or or this you know underdog

1042
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 3: one and it blew up moneyline parlays. So you hear

1043
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 3: that a lot too, where you know, you see, you know,

1044
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 3: especially in the NFL, guys, when you see like you

1045
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 3: know that they're gonna the Chiefs and the Eagles and

1046
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 3: and all these very popular good teams, people just throw

1047
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 3: them into moneyline parlays, and when one of them loses,

1048
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:30,320
Speaker 3: it tends to be a good thing for the sports

1049
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 3: book because that's gonna wipe out all of these money

1050
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 3: line parlays. Because when you put together a money line parlay, right,

1051
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 3: you get a little more creative juice. All right, cool,

1052
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 3: Now I've got you know, Ohio State paired with Penn State,

1053
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 3: paired with Oregon. All they have to do is win

1054
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 3: these three games and I'm going to bring it home

1055
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:50,719
Speaker 3: at you know, plus one oh five. But when one

1056
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 3: of those teams loses, it tends to help out the

1057
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 3: sportsbook and wipe out those money line parlays.

1058
00:53:56,680 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 1: You have any good stories about somebody having eye and

1059
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 1: years everywhere finding out if a quarterback got dumped, finding

1060
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:05,839
Speaker 1: out if you know, a running back and his coach

1061
00:54:05,880 --> 00:54:07,880
Speaker 1: got in a screaming match and shoved each other and

1062
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: now he might not be playing. You know, a you

1063
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 1: take your pick a receiver and his wife or girlfriend

1064
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 1: having a baby, and now he's up all night because

1065
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 1: he's got a newborn, and maybe you know, fade this thing,

1066
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 1: like do you have stories about you know, Sharp's having

1067
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,040
Speaker 1: those eyes and ears everywhere?

1068
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 3: No doubt, I'll give you one. A couple of years ago,

1069
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:35,279
Speaker 3: I think it was. I think it was twenty twenty one.

1070
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 3: Notre Dame was playing Virginia in Charlottesville and the week prior,

1071
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:46,759
Speaker 3: Brennan Armstrong got banged up, and I was just kind

1072
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 3: of speculating him, like, I don't I don't think he's

1073
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 3: going to play. You know, it's it's Notre Dame. It's

1074
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 3: a big game. But it's also they still were, i

1075
00:54:54,800 --> 00:55:00,359
Speaker 3: think at the time, in the acc hunt. So I

1076
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 3: was just kind of poking around and reached out to

1077
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 3: a couple of folks and they were like, oh, yeah,

1078
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 3: he's not playing. And then you find out a little

1079
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 3: bit further down the line, I think the stories come out,

1080
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,759
Speaker 3: like how that information, you know, came out? So yeah,

1081
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:16,320
Speaker 3: I mean, if you can beat the market on information,

1082
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 3: like there are some really good folks out there that

1083
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 3: are just ruthless trying to find out information, you know,

1084
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 3: having sources inside you know, training facilities.

1085
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 1: I don't unfortunately, come on, you got to get the

1086
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 1: kids in on this. Who's in a walking boot?

1087
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: I know? But yeah, every once in a while, I

1088
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 3: think I'll give you I remember, and this is with

1089
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 3: college basketball. I want to say it was like information

1090
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 3: that was like readily available, but it was a Patriot

1091
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:48,440
Speaker 3: League team, American university. I think their best player had

1092
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 3: played like illegally in you know, Europe or something like that,

1093
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,239
Speaker 3: and he was suspended due to NCAA rules and the

1094
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 3: market just didn't realize it. And I'm like, did they

1095
00:55:57,680 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 3: know that their best player is just not playing today?

1096
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,320
Speaker 3: The information was just out there, and you know, sometimes

1097
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:05,720
Speaker 3: you just you know they're they're asleep at the wheel.

1098
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 3: Not so much in college football, but yeah, I mean

1099
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 3: I think if you have sometimes you just get lucky

1100
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 3: and you get that information. I'm trying to think of

1101
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,320
Speaker 3: some others that I've know you have some good closing

1102
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 3: line value. But yeah, I do remember that Notre Dame

1103
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 3: Virginia game. I remember going on the air and be like,

1104
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 3: I know that Brendan Armstrong's not going to play, but

1105
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 3: it's not been reported, so I kind of try to

1106
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:30,200
Speaker 3: like strongly hint, be like.

1107
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 1: I don't know guys is up in the air. He

1108
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 1: might not be playing.

1109
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:36,719
Speaker 3: And then I want to say the points spread went

1110
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 3: from like seven to like fourteen once you officially got

1111
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,359
Speaker 3: ruled out, you know, before the start of the game.

1112
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 3: But hey, look so sometimes you get burned. Right, you

1113
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 3: have a source that's like, this guy is definitely not

1114
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 3: going to play, right, and then you're texting with people,

1115
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 3: you know what, You're like, is he warming up? They're like, yeah,

1116
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 3: he's going to play. You're like, oh, this is terrible information. So,

1117
00:56:56,719 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 3: you know, always always trust your sources and trust your information.

1118
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 3: And obviously, as much as we want to trust everything

1119
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: that we see on on you know, social media, it's

1120
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 3: not always going to be accurate. So yeah, be careful

1121
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 3: all the time, you know, loading up, you know, every

1122
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 3: dollar that you have in a bank account, because you know,

1123
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 3: the uh, the you know, backup center told you information

1124
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 3: that the starting quarterback is going to be out the place.

1125
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 1: Kicker's hands have been shaking while he was drinking his smoothie.

1126
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 1: I don't know if his mental state is where it

1127
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 1: needs to be, if this is close.

1128
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 2: We had so many people right in about cam Rising

1129
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 2: last year.

1130
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 1: I remember that, well, people like that game it was a.

1131
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 3: Friday night game. It was Utah and like, oh god,

1132
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:47,919
Speaker 3: was it Washington State or something like that, and all

1133
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 3: week winning him was like, yeah, he's gonna play.

1134
00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 1: And then Friday night. Yeah, it's a couple of years ago. Yeah,

1135
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 1: that was a big thing too, because I don't I

1136
00:57:57,040 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: think this story was on the show somebody. I forget

1137
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: who told it, and forgive me, But that was also

1138
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 1: a Fox game that they were broadcasting from LA, so

1139
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: they didn't actually have the right and I think Kyle

1140
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 1: Whittingham kind of misled the broadcast crew, but like because

1141
00:58:13,320 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: they weren't there, they didn't actually have eyes and ears

1142
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 1: on like the team and the situation and what was

1143
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 1: going on. And so like Fox felt betrayed being away

1144
00:58:21,840 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 1: from LA that they weren't getting the full information. That

1145
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 1: might have been Petros Papadacus. I forget who it was,

1146
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 1: but that was a whole thing with Cam Rising is

1147
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 1: going to play and then he just didn't.

1148
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, And interestingly enough, I believe starting with this next

1149
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:37,800
Speaker 2: round of the College Football Playoff, they're going to require

1150
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: schools to provide an availability report in advance of some

1151
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 2: of these games.

1152
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 3: So well, I'll say this real quickly thinking back to

1153
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 3: this last year's playoff, right, Jeremiah Love was all sorts

1154
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 3: of banged up, right, and I I probably put one

1155
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:57,919
Speaker 3: of my biggest bets of the year on his under

1156
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 3: rushing yards and I think it came home against Penn State.

1157
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 3: But he played a lot more than we expected. You know,

1158
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 3: it was like, hey, he's going to have four carries.

1159
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 3: I think he had like eleven or twelve carries in

1160
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:11,479
Speaker 3: that game. And I think there were markets out there

1161
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 3: where it was like Jeremiah Love versus Trayveon Henderson, Who's

1162
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 3: going to have more rushing yards as he played Texas,

1163
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 3: and I'd loaded up on that, gave it out of

1164
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 3: my shows, and he ended up with like fifty some

1165
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 3: odd yards and Traveon Henderson, if I remember correctly, they

1166
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 3: didn't really run the ball all that well against Texas.

1167
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 3: So you know, sometimes you think that the information you've

1168
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 3: got is good and the market's off the off the mark,

1169
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 3: and it just doesn't come home. That's that's the beauty

1170
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 3: of sports betting, and in sports, right, it's that's all

1171
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 3: we love this stuff so much. So you know I

1172
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 3: hate everyone's like, you know, what, give me a lock

1173
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm.

1174
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 1: Not going to Sorry, friend, I'm not going to do that.

1175
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 3: Like you know you can. I like this bet, I've

1176
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 3: made it myself. But there's no such thing as a lock.

1177
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,480
Speaker 3: And if you could just hit at you know, fifty

1178
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 3: five percent, you're doing you're doing very well, which I

1179
01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 3: know people don't like to hear. They want you to

1180
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 3: be hitting at you know, seventy five percent.

1181
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 1: Well, let's close out with this. I won't ask you

1182
01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 1: for your locks, but.

1183
01:00:11,320 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 2: Some of your favorite moves, some of your favorite lines,

1184
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 2: some things that have been of interest to you in

1185
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:22,800
Speaker 2: the preseason. As I know you're every bit is deep

1186
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:25,520
Speaker 2: in this as Dan and I are. What what are

1187
01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:27,960
Speaker 2: some of the some of the bets that you like?

1188
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I mean full disclosure, I've only made a

1189
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 3: couple so far. You know, I'm really diving into it

1190
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 3: now for for win totals and stuff like that. The

1191
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 3: long shot I mentioned already is Devin Dan Pierre and

1192
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 3: you know, a lot of people are going to discuss

1193
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 3: John Mattier and look, I'm excited to see what he's

1194
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 3: going to bring to the table with his you know,

1195
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 3: his unique style of play down at Oklahoma, and you know,

1196
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 3: maybe I'm a little bit of a hater, but I

1197
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 3: want to see it, right. I want to see him

1198
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 3: perform at the level that he perform at in you know,

1199
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:03,919
Speaker 3: let's call it what it was, the Mountain West last year.

1200
01:01:04,000 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 3: As he goes to the best conference in college football

1201
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 3: from top to bottom. So you know, there's a there's

1202
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 3: a unique aspect of you know, Ben Arbuckle comes with

1203
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:15,200
Speaker 3: him down to Oklahoma. But you know, look at the

1204
01:01:15,200 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 3: odds board, guys on John Mattier. You know, the odds

1205
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 3: are very much baked in, and he is you know

1206
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:25,040
Speaker 3: when you look at you know, Heisman Trophy thirty five

1207
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 3: to one, which you know if if he wins it,

1208
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 3: hey man, that more power to you. That's that's a

1209
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,520
Speaker 3: great bet to make. But you know, I'm just not

1210
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:37,440
Speaker 3: there yet. But I am excited about you know, Devin

1211
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 3: dan Pier because it's a similar situation where he brings

1212
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 3: he is coming with his offensive coordinator from New Mexico.

1213
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 3: I think it's Jason. He goes up to New Mexico

1214
01:01:49,000 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 3: or excuse me, goes to Utah and look, the schedule

1215
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:56,720
Speaker 3: is much more manageable for Utah as opposed to Oklahoma.

1216
01:01:56,720 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 3: Oklahoma's believed by some people to have the most difficult

1217
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 3: sched in college football this upcoming year. So, you know,

1218
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 3: Devin dave Peer is not the polished passer that I

1219
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 3: would say John Mattier is, but you know, you watch

1220
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 3: some of his highlights a year ago. Man that was

1221
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 3: a special, special player, and the level of talent that

1222
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 3: was on New Mexico's roster was was not anywhere close

1223
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:19,720
Speaker 3: to what Washington State was. So he's kind of the

1224
01:02:19,720 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 3: guy that I'm most intrigued about this year in college football,

1225
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 3: you know, from an outside standpoint. Obviously, I'm intrigued by

1226
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 3: you know, Ty Simpson and you know CJ. Carr and

1227
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 3: players that you know, the big time programs. But he

1228
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 3: is the one guys that I threw one hundred to

1229
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 3: one bet on him. I think that's still out there

1230
01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 3: at DraftKings. You know, once again, long shot, it was,

1231
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 3: as we like to call pizza bed. It was nothing big,

1232
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 3: but that one. I'm like, I'm a little bit talking

1233
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 3: out of both sides of my mouth in the sense

1234
01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:50,040
Speaker 3: that I'm questionable on John Mattier and I'm all in

1235
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:52,840
Speaker 3: on Devin damp here. But you know, the SEC versus

1236
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 3: the big twelve let's be real, right, you know, that's

1237
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:57,600
Speaker 3: a little bit of a different ballgame in those two

1238
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 3: particular conferences. I mentioned Clemson obviously, they are a team

1239
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 3: that I'm very high on. And then you know, the

1240
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 3: one team that I feel like, as crazy as it sounds,

1241
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 3: and it's not like they're a one hundred to one

1242
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:14,800
Speaker 3: shot that just people may not be discussing enough in

1243
01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:19,040
Speaker 3: my opinion, is Alabama. You know, when you look at

1244
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:23,920
Speaker 3: the positional strengths that they have, I think, you know,

1245
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 3: and I'm not saying that he's the Gospel, but I

1246
01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:28,480
Speaker 3: think Phil Steele had them top ten in every position

1247
01:03:29,000 --> 01:03:31,760
Speaker 3: outside of quarterback. And I think that's what's so fascinating

1248
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:35,200
Speaker 3: about this year, guys, is if a couple of these

1249
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:38,480
Speaker 3: schools hit at the quarterback position, whether it be Ty

1250
01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 3: Simpson at Alabama or CJ. Carr at Notre Dame or

1251
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 3: Dante More at Oregon, Like, what's the ceiling for these

1252
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:51,240
Speaker 3: particular schools? Right? Like they have loaded rosters, but we

1253
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 3: just don't know about the quarterback, and the quarterbacks the

1254
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:56,200
Speaker 3: most important position in the sport. But what if they hit.

1255
01:03:56,480 --> 01:03:59,200
Speaker 3: It's not like Ty Simpson was some JABBRONI he was

1256
01:03:59,240 --> 01:04:01,880
Speaker 3: a five star wars crewed a couple of years ago. CJ.

1257
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 3: Carr high four star recruit. So we know recruiting rankings

1258
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 3: are hit or miss, and there's plenty of bus out there.

1259
01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 3: But what I think was interesting when you look at

1260
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: Georgia and Bama and Notre Dame and Oregon is that

1261
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 3: they didn't really go in the portal. They didn't look

1262
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:25,000
Speaker 3: all that hard. Miami did right. They brought in Carson

1263
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:28,160
Speaker 3: Beck and you know, from my understanding, we had a

1264
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:31,920
Speaker 3: friend of your show, Scott Doctrman, on my podcast and

1265
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:35,080
Speaker 3: he said that, you know, Miami went hard after Mark

1266
01:04:35,160 --> 01:04:38,920
Speaker 3: Ronowski from South Dakota State. So Miami was clear, we

1267
01:04:38,960 --> 01:04:40,880
Speaker 3: need a quarterback. The other schools are kind of like,

1268
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 3: we're good, we think we can roll with this. So

1269
01:04:43,280 --> 01:04:45,920
Speaker 3: going back to Bama real quickly, guys, you know, Caitlin

1270
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 3: de Boor, it felt like maybe his stock was too

1271
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 3: high when he went down to Bama. And now doesn't

1272
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 3: it feel like the stock is like, well, this guy's

1273
01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:56,440
Speaker 3: got to do it not for losses. Is not how

1274
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 3: you do it down here in Tuscaloosa. I'm like, the

1275
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:04,520
Speaker 3: rosters still loaded with talent, and Ryan Williams maybe you know,

1276
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:08,400
Speaker 3: the best wide receiver one B to Jeremiah Smith's one A.

1277
01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 3: And if Ty Simpson hits with an offensive coordinator and

1278
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 3: Ryan Grubb that has worked wonders over his career. You know,

1279
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 3: that reuniting reunion of Grub and Deboor. I think needs

1280
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,520
Speaker 3: to get a little bit more love out there. Like, look,

1281
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 3: Penn State, you went out, you got Jim Knowles. That

1282
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:32,480
Speaker 3: could work out wonderfully well, and I'm not saying it won't,

1283
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 3: but I think people are overlooking the fact that Ryan

1284
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:39,360
Speaker 3: Grubb and Kaylin de Boor led Washington to the National

1285
01:05:39,520 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 3: Championship Game two years ago, and now with more talent,

1286
01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:47,240
Speaker 3: we're kind of looking at Alabama as like the eighth

1287
01:05:47,320 --> 01:05:49,480
Speaker 3: or ninth best team in the country. So I just

1288
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:52,680
Speaker 3: I think Alabama I would not be surprised if they're

1289
01:05:52,680 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 3: playing in late January wonderful.

1290
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:56,400
Speaker 1: Well.

1291
01:05:56,480 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 2: His name is Tim Murray. You can find him out

1292
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 2: on the v SIN network as well as the Vson

1293
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 2: College Football Betting podcast. Anything that I missed, Tim.

1294
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:10,200
Speaker 3: I don't think, so I got it all just fired

1295
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:12,800
Speaker 3: up to get to going. Oh I do uh I

1296
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:17,080
Speaker 3: actually you did miss something. For those of you watching

1297
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:19,720
Speaker 3: with us, you could see over my shoulder. That is

1298
01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 3: my prestigious college jersey I was. I was an All American,

1299
01:06:25,440 --> 01:06:27,680
Speaker 3: and by All American, I played about nine minutes a

1300
01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 3: game from Ulenberg College. But I bring this up and

1301
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 3: we're talking to basketball.

1302
01:06:31,920 --> 01:06:33,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, because Ty.

1303
01:06:33,120 --> 01:06:36,880
Speaker 3: Hilton Brandt over there lives a stone's throw away from

1304
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:40,960
Speaker 3: my alma mater in Allentown, Pennsylvania. And Dan, we're doing

1305
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 3: all this, you know, gambling chatter, and it's an important

1306
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 3: thing in gambling to pay your debts, and Ty Hillton

1307
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 3: Brandt has has not paid his debt. I have a

1308
01:06:53,640 --> 01:06:57,240
Speaker 3: several of years ago, Notre Dame played Ohio State and

1309
01:06:57,320 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 3: Ty and I both Notre Dame fans, of course, and

1310
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 3: Ty was as as he's one to do, feeling good,

1311
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:06,200
Speaker 3: and he said, Notre Dame is gonna beat Ohio State.

1312
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 3: They could have, They could should be.

1313
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 1: They nearly had enough men on the field. Yeah.

1314
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:15,000
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, when triple zeros

1315
01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:17,520
Speaker 3: were on the board and I was sitting there with

1316
01:07:17,600 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 3: a sour puss on my face inside Notre Dame Stadium

1317
01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:25,640
Speaker 3: wearing a green T shirt, Ohio State had beaten Notre Dame.

1318
01:07:26,960 --> 01:07:29,960
Speaker 3: But we had a little wager on the side where

1319
01:07:30,640 --> 01:07:33,920
Speaker 3: if Ohio State won the game, because I was very

1320
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 3: pessimistic about said game, that Ty Hilton Brandt would walk

1321
01:07:38,320 --> 01:07:43,360
Speaker 3: over to the Muhlenberg bookstore buy a Muhlenberg basketball T

1322
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 3: shirt and wear it on the podcast.

1323
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:48,440
Speaker 1: Ty come on, I know, I know, Rubenstein.

1324
01:07:48,520 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 3: Remind me you are a man who has a great memory.

1325
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:57,400
Speaker 3: Have we seen a Muhlenberg basketball T shirt uppear on

1326
01:07:57,480 --> 01:07:58,440
Speaker 3: the solid.

1327
01:07:58,120 --> 01:08:03,479
Speaker 1: Verbal Thistly, this show has been mule free since two

1328
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 1: thousand and three, and I don't appreciate Tye bringing now

1329
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 1: a pretty bad reputation.

1330
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,880
Speaker 3: You know, Dan, in some circles there are you know

1331
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 3: there old people, kneecaps are broken, You know that things

1332
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:21,280
Speaker 3: get ugly. You know, you know the Murray sports book

1333
01:08:21,360 --> 01:08:24,679
Speaker 3: is pretty kind. I'm just publicly tight.

1334
01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:28,559
Speaker 1: So we're talking about a college athlete here who has

1335
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:31,200
Speaker 1: a lot of pride, who winning is important. Here's my

1336
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:33,680
Speaker 1: final question, by the way, because you're you're displaying the

1337
01:08:33,760 --> 01:08:36,479
Speaker 1: jersey in the background here, you were you a power forward?

1338
01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:37,439
Speaker 1: What position did you play?

1339
01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:39,799
Speaker 3: Believe it or not, I was a center.

1340
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 1: Okay, so you're playing center for the Berg Mules, playing

1341
01:08:43,000 --> 01:08:45,519
Speaker 1: nine minutes a game. But nobody can take away the

1342
01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:48,519
Speaker 1: fact that you were a college athlete. So to any

1343
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:54,000
Speaker 1: aspiring low post player fifteen sixteen years old and they

1344
01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:58,160
Speaker 1: want to play is muelen Bert was a d D three?

1345
01:08:58,320 --> 01:09:02,040
Speaker 1: They just want to keep that that career going. What

1346
01:09:02,280 --> 01:09:04,960
Speaker 1: is what is something that they should be working on

1347
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 1: in those unseen hours in the gym? Are we talking

1348
01:09:07,040 --> 01:09:09,840
Speaker 1: about dropstaff baby hook? Are we become a stretch five?

1349
01:09:10,320 --> 01:09:13,000
Speaker 1: What is your advice to surpass your nine minutes a

1350
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:14,440
Speaker 1: game playing D three basketball?

1351
01:09:14,960 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 3: Well, you know free throws are important. Yeah, I did.

1352
01:09:19,320 --> 01:09:21,960
Speaker 3: I did set a I did set the record at

1353
01:09:22,040 --> 01:09:27,560
Speaker 3: Muhlenberg for a single season worst free throw percentage. It

1354
01:09:27,680 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 3: was a fact. My junior year, I was eight for

1355
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:34,000
Speaker 3: thirty one from the free throw on at twenty five

1356
01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 3: point eight percent. I don't know how you can.

1357
01:09:37,240 --> 01:09:39,120
Speaker 1: Was it your hands, was it your head? Was it

1358
01:09:39,160 --> 01:09:40,559
Speaker 1: your rhythm? All in the head.

1359
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:43,920
Speaker 3: It's all between the ears man and kind of it's

1360
01:09:43,960 --> 01:09:46,639
Speaker 3: not like I was playing every game, you know there

1361
01:09:46,640 --> 01:09:50,520
Speaker 3: inside Memorial Hall it was it was like the Cameron crazies.

1362
01:09:50,640 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 3: You know, let's be real. It was a smattering of

1363
01:09:54,240 --> 01:09:58,920
Speaker 3: students and parents inside those arenas. But it's all between

1364
01:09:58,920 --> 01:10:01,200
Speaker 3: the ears man. So if you could figure out a

1365
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:03,720
Speaker 3: way to I don't know if you had to go

1366
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:07,479
Speaker 3: to a sports psychologist or do something like that. Man,

1367
01:10:07,560 --> 01:10:09,920
Speaker 3: the mental side of things is vital.

1368
01:10:10,360 --> 01:10:12,679
Speaker 1: I appreciate that we just spent an hour talking about

1369
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:15,679
Speaker 1: how to think about and evaluate college football from somebody

1370
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 1: who could not hit thirty percent of his free throw.

1371
01:10:17,960 --> 01:10:22,120
Speaker 3: That's correct, Okay, just making sure seventy five percent free

1372
01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:24,400
Speaker 3: throw shooter in high school. And then I got to college,

1373
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 3: and I would a I did improve my senior year.

1374
01:10:28,160 --> 01:10:30,519
Speaker 3: I think I went nine for twenty three my senior year.

1375
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:33,720
Speaker 2: Okay, you need a gene hackman out there with the

1376
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:36,920
Speaker 2: ruler measuring it to show you visually that it's the

1377
01:10:36,960 --> 01:10:38,880
Speaker 2: same height and the same h you know.

1378
01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so yeah, I would say mentally, you know, stay

1379
01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:47,679
Speaker 3: stay sharp between the ears. Okay, that's always helpful. Yeah

1380
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:50,760
Speaker 3: I did. I will say though, my freshman year, I

1381
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:52,920
Speaker 3: did lead the nation in field goal.

1382
01:10:52,720 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 1: Percentage, which was one percent one for one, So perfect

1383
01:10:57,360 --> 01:10:58,920
Speaker 1: here perfect that is?

1384
01:10:59,000 --> 01:11:01,280
Speaker 3: I mean, look, those are those are things people can't

1385
01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:05,760
Speaker 3: take away, you know though, those are those are factual statements.

1386
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:08,880
Speaker 3: And you know, maybe one day ty Hilton Brandt will

1387
01:11:09,120 --> 01:11:12,200
Speaker 3: will represent his hometown. I mean, look, it's his hometown

1388
01:11:12,280 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 3: team Dan. I mean it's right down the road, you know,

1389
01:11:16,000 --> 01:11:16,920
Speaker 3: in the Lehigh Valley.

1390
01:11:16,960 --> 01:11:19,240
Speaker 1: Here is my promise to you, Tim, Here is my promise.

1391
01:11:19,479 --> 01:11:23,160
Speaker 2: Come on, My promise is on one of our upcoming

1392
01:11:23,200 --> 01:11:26,400
Speaker 2: preview episodes. Because we're in the as I said, throws

1393
01:11:26,439 --> 01:11:29,080
Speaker 2: of trying to put these together. Now, I will run

1394
01:11:29,160 --> 01:11:32,040
Speaker 2: up to Muhlenberg. I will pick up a shirt. I

1395
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:33,920
Speaker 2: will wear it on one of the preview episodes. I

1396
01:11:33,920 --> 01:11:36,200
Speaker 2: will send it off to you. I'll send you a screenshot,

1397
01:11:36,520 --> 01:11:39,320
Speaker 2: all right, so that you can verify and so I

1398
01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:40,320
Speaker 2: can make good on my bet.

1399
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 3: All right. You know, hey, look, at the end of

1400
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:44,759
Speaker 3: the day, you got to you gotta pay your debts.

1401
01:11:45,000 --> 01:11:47,840
Speaker 3: It's it'll be almost two years since that game. I

1402
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:53,439
Speaker 3: remember sitting in the parking lot, an empty parking lot,

1403
01:11:53,479 --> 01:11:55,920
Speaker 3: at like one o'clock in the morning after Notre Dame

1404
01:11:55,920 --> 01:11:58,479
Speaker 3: lost to Ohio State. And I want to say I

1405
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:03,519
Speaker 3: did call the verbaler line, just being very despondent and

1406
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 3: sad that I had just witnessed it. But you know,

1407
01:12:08,280 --> 01:12:11,640
Speaker 3: we press on and we'll see what We'll see what

1408
01:12:11,680 --> 01:12:13,479
Speaker 3: comes of it. And you got to pay your debts

1409
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:15,840
Speaker 3: in another part of a part of gambling. You gotta

1410
01:12:15,840 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 3: pay your debts.

1411
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:20,040
Speaker 2: An important life lesson from Tim Murray over at the

1412
01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:23,400
Speaker 2: Visa Network. Tim, thank you for sharing your insight, your wisdom.

1413
01:12:23,479 --> 01:12:24,760
Speaker 2: It's always great to have you back.

1414
01:12:25,080 --> 01:12:25,719
Speaker 3: See you guys.

1415
01:12:25,840 --> 01:12:28,840
Speaker 1: All right, there you go, Tim Murray calling me out.

1416
01:12:30,960 --> 01:12:34,240
Speaker 1: How long of a drive is it? It's like ten minutes.

1417
01:12:34,479 --> 01:12:36,880
Speaker 2: Okay, it's I could have walked there before.

1418
01:12:36,920 --> 01:12:41,040
Speaker 1: I can't walk there anymore. Muhlenberg Mules shirt. Let's take

1419
01:12:41,080 --> 01:12:43,120
Speaker 1: a look at the options all on the show together.

1420
01:12:43,360 --> 01:12:46,759
Speaker 2: When we brought him on and I saw his frame

1421
01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:51,599
Speaker 2: with the Muhlenberg basketball jersey over his I guess right shoulder.

1422
01:12:53,640 --> 01:12:55,479
Speaker 2: I knew he was going to bring that up. I

1423
01:12:55,560 --> 01:12:57,400
Speaker 2: just I knew in my marrow he was going to

1424
01:12:57,439 --> 01:12:59,760
Speaker 2: bring that up. And I feel bad about it because

1425
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:01,439
Speaker 2: we did make the bet and I didn't follow through.

1426
01:13:01,439 --> 01:13:05,000
Speaker 2: But I will definitely follow through now that he called

1427
01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:05,720
Speaker 2: me out on the air.

1428
01:13:06,080 --> 01:13:09,200
Speaker 1: I'm looking right now. You can get twenty twenty. There's

1429
01:13:09,240 --> 01:13:14,439
Speaker 1: like a bucking Mule shirt made by Gilden for the Mules. Great,

1430
01:13:14,479 --> 01:13:18,760
Speaker 1: It's totally good. It's totally good. I did a little

1431
01:13:18,760 --> 01:13:22,840
Speaker 1: bit more Lorenzo Lamas research. Of course he did. His

1432
01:13:23,040 --> 01:13:25,479
Speaker 1: lady co host on Are You Hot was Rachel Hunter.

1433
01:13:25,640 --> 01:13:27,800
Speaker 1: Rachel Hunter who at one point was married to Rod

1434
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:32,320
Speaker 1: Stewart and more affectionately, this century known as Stacy's mom.

1435
01:13:32,720 --> 01:13:37,680
Speaker 1: Oh parenthetically has got it going on? I did not

1436
01:13:37,800 --> 01:13:40,639
Speaker 1: know that. Yes, she was the co host of that show.

1437
01:13:41,000 --> 01:13:47,080
Speaker 1: And here's the other Lorenzo Lamises. His filmography is an

1438
01:13:47,080 --> 01:13:50,360
Speaker 1: insane list of titles going back to when he was

1439
01:13:50,360 --> 01:13:53,439
Speaker 1: like a kid in stuff. He was in both Snake

1440
01:13:53,479 --> 01:13:57,559
Speaker 1: Eater and Snake Eater Too colon, The Drug Buster, he

1441
01:13:57,640 --> 01:14:00,200
Speaker 1: was in Body Rock Promises in the Dark. I can

1442
01:14:00,200 --> 01:14:05,000
Speaker 1: only imagine what that is, But that's Snake Eater three colon,

1443
01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:10,880
Speaker 1: His Law Cia Code Name colon Alexa CIA two Colan

1444
01:14:11,120 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 1: Target Alexa, Bad Blood, Midnight Man, Gladiator, Cop Terminal, Justice,

1445
01:14:17,040 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 1: The Rage, Undercurrent, The Circuit Too colon The Final Punch.

1446
01:14:21,439 --> 01:14:23,439
Speaker 2: These sound like chat GPT movies.

1447
01:14:23,520 --> 01:14:27,120
Speaker 1: Is what the unbelievable unseen evil sci Fi Fighter Killing

1448
01:14:27,160 --> 01:14:30,400
Speaker 1: Cupid eighteen Fingers of Death, and he played a character

1449
01:14:30,479 --> 01:14:37,519
Speaker 1: named Antonio Bandana, Sucubis colin Hell Bent, Mega Shark Versus

1450
01:14:37,520 --> 01:14:43,800
Speaker 1: Giant Octopus, Return to Vengeance, Cathedral Canyon bro Comma, What

1451
01:14:44,000 --> 01:14:51,280
Speaker 1: Happened Atomic Eden, God's Club, Railroad to Hell colon, A

1452
01:14:51,479 --> 01:14:55,879
Speaker 1: Chinaman's Chance. I do not approve of that way of speaking.

1453
01:14:56,400 --> 01:15:01,800
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, Vietnam colon, the movie Scorpion Awakening colon the

1454
01:15:01,920 --> 01:15:07,599
Speaker 1: movie Real Blood colon The True Beginning. Wow Yeah, and

1455
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:15,599
Speaker 1: Phineas and Ferb, Ghost Girls, Luca Underground, Sharknado three colon

1456
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:20,200
Speaker 1: O heell no, this is this is this is great,

1457
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,360
Speaker 1: this is okay. I don't know how we not? It

1458
01:15:23,439 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 1: says this are you hot.

1459
01:15:25,160 --> 01:15:28,559
Speaker 2: The series was short lived, lasting only a handful of

1460
01:15:28,560 --> 01:15:31,439
Speaker 2: episodes before being canceled due to low ratings. In a

1461
01:15:31,479 --> 01:15:35,479
Speaker 2: negative reception, you don't say, you don't say. Shining a

1462
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:38,840
Speaker 2: laser pointer at flaws the Flawfinder.

1463
01:15:40,160 --> 01:15:43,679
Speaker 1: We got it here, all right, it's time to dial

1464
01:15:43,760 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 1: up the flawfinder the fader. There it is okay, miszoo,

1465
01:15:47,439 --> 01:15:50,080
Speaker 1: let's get a closer look. Beautiful.

1466
01:15:50,200 --> 01:15:52,960
Speaker 2: Well, listen, big thanks Tim Murray for stopping on by

1467
01:15:53,439 --> 01:15:55,080
Speaker 2: sharing his insight with us.

1468
01:15:55,080 --> 01:15:55,840
Speaker 1: We appreciate it.

1469
01:15:56,600 --> 01:15:56,720
Speaker 3: Uh.

1470
01:15:56,800 --> 01:15:59,280
Speaker 2: We're gonna go off now and record our first preview

1471
01:15:59,760 --> 01:16:02,480
Speaker 2: and if that's cool with you, that drops on Tuesday

1472
01:16:02,800 --> 01:16:06,360
Speaker 2: again next week. A one episode week, I'm going to

1473
01:16:06,439 --> 01:16:09,400
Speaker 2: get our intro to the twenty five season. The following

1474
01:16:09,400 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 2: week we're going to flip the switches, go to three,

1475
01:16:11,840 --> 01:16:15,720
Speaker 2: start talking about the G five slash G six conferences,

1476
01:16:16,320 --> 01:16:19,000
Speaker 2: and then I guess go into the ACC.

1477
01:16:18,800 --> 01:16:19,439
Speaker 1: The following week.

1478
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:22,439
Speaker 2: Yes, so a lot is coming your way here. We

1479
01:16:22,560 --> 01:16:26,160
Speaker 2: appreciate having you beside us. Verballers dot Com is where

1480
01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:28,719
Speaker 2: you can go to support. If nothing more, hit follow

1481
01:16:28,840 --> 01:16:31,680
Speaker 2: or subscribes that you don't miss any of those episodes.

1482
01:16:31,680 --> 01:16:35,560
Speaker 2: For that guy over there are Lorenzo Lama, sufficient not O,

1483
01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:38,680
Speaker 2: Dan Rubinstein, For myself, Ti Hilding, Right, we'll catch you

1484
01:16:38,720 --> 01:16:39,240
Speaker 2: all next week.

1485
01:16:39,280 --> 01:16:41,240
Speaker 1: The Unite to Day saw peace