1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: go the test throwing in spec I'm saying it's. 4 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 3: A cat that we see most gamblers when they go 5 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 3: to gamble, they go to win. 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 4: That's incredible. 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right, 8 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabai if you want to pull. 9 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 2: And we are under way. What's up, everybody? 10 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fando. I 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: am your host, Chris Raybond, and today we have our 12 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: early NFL player props for Super Bowl fifty seven. 13 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: Here to join me to get some props out. 14 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: One of the top fantasy rankers projection masters in the industry, 15 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, Sean, what's going on? 16 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 4: What's up? I'm super excited. We're finally walking in some 17 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 4: bets for the Super Bowl. Still over week out, but 18 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 4: you know, we found a couple that we will we 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 4: want to lock in. I think by the end of it, 20 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 4: I'm going to have about a dozen bets. So today, 21 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 4: you know, just kick off with a few. 22 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we'll get you know, it's unfortunate. 23 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: The one thing I will say is that we're probably 24 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: not going to get a ton of Chiefs Catcher lines 25 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,639 Speaker 1: because I think they estimated that Tony Juju and Nicole 26 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: Hardman would have misspractice Wednesday. 27 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 2: I will recording this early Thursday. 28 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 4: Well, we got some clarity that it looks like Hardman's out. 29 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, we did get clarity on. 30 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 4: That, and then we just kind of have to wait 31 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 4: on Juju and Tony. But yeah, like you said, we're 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 4: probably not going to get wide receiver props until we see, 33 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 4: you know, some more clarity run the situation. 34 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't wait to bet Marcus Kemp anytime touchdown 35 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: Balie Hell yeah, right right, yeah, terrible value. But uh no, 36 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: but we got some props there are There are a 37 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: bunch of lines out, so we will do three each 38 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: for this one, And just want to mention that we'll 39 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: have our full propa bous episode coming out next week, 40 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: so look out for that. We'll also have Stucky and 41 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: I will do our Super Bowl breakdown that'll be out Monday, 42 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: so early next week for that as well, and then 43 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: the props episode will follow. So let's jump right in 44 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: to it. I'll let you eat off. Give me your 45 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: first prop for s B fifty seven. 46 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, so the first prop has to be the Miles 47 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 4: Sanders one. I love it's Miles Sanders to lead the 48 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 4: game and rushing yards at plus one seventy five. So 49 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 4: I have all my Super Bowl sims, so I was 50 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 4: able to sim this out pretty easily, and I got 51 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 4: Sanders fair odds closer to plus one fifty. So there's 52 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 4: some slight value here. But I just think there's a 53 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 4: ton of upside because his usage all season has been 54 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 4: capped due to the Eagles being involved in so many blogs. 55 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 4: You know, we talked about this earlier on the Flex, 56 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 4: so I think potentially having a closer game only raises 57 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 4: his ceiling. So his rush attempt share among Eagles running 58 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 4: backs was seventy nine percent this season when the Eagles 59 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 4: were either trailing or winning by fewer than seven points, 60 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 4: and it dropped to sixty one percent when the Eagles 61 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 4: were up by seven or more. And obviously it drops 62 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 4: way more you know, in the fourth quarter and there 63 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 4: ap twenty plus points. He rarely saw in the action. 64 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 4: So again, like I said, that should be pretty close. 65 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 4: He's going to see maximum usage, so that raises his 66 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 4: ceiling and that's what we're looking for in this market. 67 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 4: And then on you know, his main competition is his 68 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 4: own teammate Jalen Hurts, and he's out rush Hurts in 69 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 4: three straight games. I think that obviously has to do 70 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 4: with Hurts being a little bit cautious with his left 71 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 4: shoulder injury, so you know that there'll be less of 72 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 4: an issue here. But either way, on the season, Sanders's 73 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 4: out rush hurts in thirteen of seventeen games where they're 74 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 4: both active, So that's a seventy six percent, right, And 75 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: am I simularor I'm only giving him around a sixty 76 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 4: two sixty three percent chance of out rushing hurt. So 77 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 4: I'm being a little conservative there and I'm still showing 78 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 4: some value here on Sanders. And then on the chief side, 79 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 4: his main competition is obviously Isaiah Pachecko. But you know, 80 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 4: unlike Sanders, a potential close or even trailing game script 81 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,359 Speaker 4: negatively impacts Pachecko's ceiling because it's likely going to be 82 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 4: you know, more carries for Jack McKinnon potentially, you know, 83 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 4: we have Clyde Edwards Hilaire active that's only going to 84 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 4: eat into you know, McKinnon and Pachecko's usage. So I 85 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 4: think on the chief side, everyone's ceiling is kind of 86 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: lowered with the closer game. You know that the Chiefs 87 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 4: had the second highest pass rate on early downs in 88 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 4: neutral situations, so you know they're going to be have 89 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 4: a more pass heavy game plan than usual, so that 90 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 4: that just hurts the chances of the highest scoring rusher 91 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 4: or the most rushing arts to come from the Kansas 92 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 4: City side. So that's why all these factors just it's 93 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 4: sort of a perfect storm for Sanders. So while I'm 94 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 4: showing plus fifty as his fair price, I think his 95 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 4: upside is even higher. So I would I bet this 96 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 4: all the way down to plus one fifty, but love 97 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 4: the value we're getting at plus one seventy five here. 98 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 2: Just currious, what do you have? 99 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 1: What do you how many carries are you projected standards 100 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: for this year? His median for the whole entire season 101 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: is about fifteen, but as you mentioned, you know some 102 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: of the some of the games he's been kind of 103 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,679 Speaker 1: coming out, So what are you projecting for his car. 104 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right around thirteen and a half, which is 105 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 4: the market right now, because there is some risk, you know, 106 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 4: it could be a trailing game script where the Eagles 107 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 4: have to pass more, So there's that aspect going against them, 108 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 4: But this could end up being the sweet spot. You know, 109 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 4: a close game where the Eagles can still lean on 110 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 4: the run. You know, obviously they're a run heavy team, 111 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 4: but maximum usage for Miles Sanders. So that's that's what 112 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 4: I would consider the sweet spot. It is just a 113 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 4: close game, which I'm expecting here. So like I said, 114 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 4: you know, trailing game script would obviously hurt him in 115 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 4: this apartment. That would help out Pa Checko obviously. Plus 116 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 4: you know the Eagles run defense, that that's their weakness, 117 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 4: so that the Chiefs could attack that by you know, 118 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 4: running Pachecko a little bit more. But for Sanders, I 119 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 4: have his rush tempts around thirteen and a half, so 120 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 4: I'm not projecting him anything outrageous. Again, I'm in line 121 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 4: with the market, but when it comes to this market specifically, 122 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 4: I do think he has the clearest path anyway to 123 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 4: hitting his ceiling. 124 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I'm right. 125 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 2: I'm surprised those odds are that long. 126 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: Actually, I think most would kind of be the obvious choice, 127 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: unless unless we're going to get like a full on 128 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: Pacheco and leash game that we got against the. 129 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,359 Speaker 4: Which could happen against the but we also saw yeah, well, 130 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 4: that's what I was going to say. We saw him 131 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 4: unleash in the passing game, so they might use that 132 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 4: as an extension of the run game. So that again, 133 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 4: that's one other factor that kind of goes against Pacheco 134 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 4: here is he was seeing a lot more usage in 135 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 4: the passing game. 136 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, all right, I'll go with my first one. 137 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: I thought it was going to be on this guy's overs, 138 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: but once again we see the market kind of overrating them. 139 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: Qus Watkins, I'm going under one and a half receptions 140 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: and minus one twenty five. I think the fair odds 141 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: for this should be closer to about one minus one 142 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: seventy five. He's just been a completely different player, as 143 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: we've talked about with and without Goddard. Now, I still 144 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: think there could be some value on some of like 145 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: the ceiling props for Watkins, like you know, longest reception 146 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: anytime touchdown. But in terms of volume, I still think 147 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,559 Speaker 1: he's a lot more likely than not to stay under 148 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: two catches. With Dallas Goddard in the lineup. He has 149 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: had one or fewer catches in nine or fourteen or 150 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: sixty four percent of his games. His median is half 151 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: a catch, and his median is actually zero receiving yards. 152 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: In those games as well, so. 153 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: Averaging averaging about one point one catch, but the median 154 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: is half a catch, and you know that's usually what receivers. 155 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: We have higher ceilings than floors, pretty much zero for everything, 156 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: you're going to see the average be higher than the median. 157 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: So I don't think the markets are quite taken into account. 158 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: Just how his role has changed more high, it's more 159 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: low percentage stuff. 160 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 2: We saw last week or two. 161 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: You know, during the championship game, he had that one 162 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: target and it was a deep ball that ended up 163 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: being broken up by Travarius Wards, So you. 164 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 2: Know we could see that again. 165 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: I'm sure they probably want to get him a deep target, 166 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: but it's not something that you really see in terms 167 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: of volume with Quez. And then you know, there's also 168 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: the fact that his routes have been going down. Two 169 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: weeks ago or two games ago in the division round, 170 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: just a twenty seven percent route participation, and it did 171 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: bounce back to Weed Pascal, who actually jumped him the 172 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: game before, but he was still only fifty two percent 173 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: route participation in the conference championship, and that's about ten 174 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: percent below his season average. 175 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,439 Speaker 2: And remember this is not snaps, So this is not. 176 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: Affected by the blowout, because when you're passing, when you're 177 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 1: when you're in the ball game, you're not passing. 178 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: So that's why I we like to look at. 179 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: These route numbers and they have been down for Quez, 180 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: which you know, if that's the case, then he'd be 181 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: even more likely than the true odds I estimated before, 182 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: because I'm going I'm still going conservative, expecting him to 183 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: mostly bounce back to around a season average. 184 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 2: So like the Quez under one and a. 185 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 4: Half catches, Yeah, well are you getting that out. 186 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,319 Speaker 1: Minus one twenty it's anywhere between minus one twenty five 187 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: and one looks like one forty five right now. 188 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 2: I bet it up to minus one seventy. 189 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: Like I said, I think the turat should be around 190 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: one seventy five, one seventy eight actually, So yeah, it's 191 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: it's one of those where I doubt, I don't know, 192 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 1: we'll see sometimes the books move it, you know, and 193 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 1: it gets up to there. But I think the interesting 194 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: thing about this, you know, the Super Bowl prop market 195 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 1: is a lot bigger. I think, you know, there's a 196 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: lot more money coming in, so I think it's less 197 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: likely that you know, like let's say we give out 198 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: a prop on a pod. I don't think it'll move 199 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 1: quite as much as it tends to do a lot 200 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: of other times we have these numbers or post them 201 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 1: in the app, it's like, immediately I feel like they 202 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: move like twenty thirty cents. 203 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 2: But we'll see, we'll see how it goes. 204 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: But as of right now, yet still it's still anywhere 205 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 1: between one twenty five and forty five. 206 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 2: Across all the all the old books. 207 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, you know, I'm a little bit more 208 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 4: bullish on him than you, but I still show some 209 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 4: value on the under here. I have him staying below 210 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 4: this around fifty nine percent of the time, so you know, 211 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 4: fair price will be like minus one fifty based on 212 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 4: my projection. And I was telling you I was looking 213 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 4: at his longest reception to go over ten and a 214 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,319 Speaker 4: half yards, but I backed off it. I'm being a 215 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 4: little bit closer than I thought. But so there's like, 216 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 4: let's work through this. There's about twenty five percent chance 217 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 4: he has zero catches. 218 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, well he only needs to be a lesson too, yeah, 219 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: going too yeah, yeah, so there's about a thirty five 220 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: percent chance he just gets one catch. 221 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, and then about forty percent threw more bad for 222 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 4: you but good for you know, longer. 223 00:10:58,160 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have it, but I haven't a little higher. 224 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 2: It's like, like, so I'm what I'm factoring it. 225 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: I'm like, for his season, Uh, the games in which 226 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: got Her missed, he had a completely different role. But 227 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: the games got Her played his target per route eight 228 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: point seven percent, so and his catch right was down 229 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: to fifty eight percent, so it was like a totally 230 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: different It's two different players. So I'm I'm actually not 231 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: factoring in like pretty much because we have a big 232 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: enough sample with the what. 233 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 2: Is it, fourteen games? 234 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's got her from like so there's only five 235 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: without him, So yeah, that's probably why I'm just a 236 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: little bit lower. 237 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah either way. 238 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: I mean it's like if you watch Egose games, you 239 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: kind of know, like the odds of seeing two targets 240 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: much less to catch. 241 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty. 242 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 4: Much such a fascinating player to project, That's what I'm 243 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 4: getting at. So the most likely outcome is one catch 244 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 4: I get at, I would say, well I. 245 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 1: Have I mean, because I haven't projected form like one catch, 246 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: so like it would probably be zero for me. 247 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 2: But I guess I think you have them closed like 248 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 2: one point five, right, Yeah, even if. 249 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 4: You're projecting in for one catch, the most likely outcome 250 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 4: would be one catch. But that's my point, right, it's 251 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 4: I have thirty five percent chance he's gonna get one catch. 252 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 4: Out of his fifty five receptions this season, thirty one 253 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 4: of them went for eleven yards or more. So I'm 254 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:18,839 Speaker 4: saying if he gets one catch, there's a fifty six 255 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,559 Speaker 4: percent chance he clears his longest reception of ten and 256 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 4: a half. 257 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 2: So I just was it that his actual prop. 258 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 4: So his actual prop is thirteen and a half yards. Oh, 259 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 4: and I can say there's a there's a path there 260 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 4: where he gets you know, eleven twelve, thirteen yards on 261 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 4: his first catch, which could be his only catch, and 262 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 4: now you're spending the rest of the game rooting for 263 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 4: you need him to get another catch. That's a disaster 264 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 4: if you have the Quez Watkins over thirteen a half 265 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 4: receiving yard. So I was saying, if you're gonna bet 266 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 4: is over, you might as well just take the over 267 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 4: ten and a half for his longest reception. That was 268 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 4: the angle I was going for, because the chances of 269 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 4: him getting you know, an twelve or thirteen yards is 270 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 4: higher than the market is implying right now. 271 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: So, yeah, he's gonna catch. 272 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 1: He's gonna get like one catch for seventy three yards 273 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: and a touchdown. 274 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 2: Everything. 275 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 4: That's one of his paths. And I'm saying over ten 276 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 4: and a half for his longest reception that hits. So 277 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 4: I was really threading the needle because I do like 278 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 4: your under one and a half receptions. I don't think 279 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 4: I can root for him to get two or more receptions. 280 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 4: And then you don't want to take his over thirteen 281 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 4: and a half receiving yards because there is a path 282 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 4: where you are screwed where he catches a pass for 283 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 4: less than thirteen a half yards and you're spending the 284 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 4: rest of the Super Bowl sweating another quez catch. If 285 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 4: you just get one catch, that's a borderline miracle. So 286 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 4: we're on the same page here. I'm just saying, to 287 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 4: invest in is over. The best way to do it 288 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 4: would be over his longest reception ten and a half yards, 289 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 4: not his receiving prompt gotcha? Gotcha? 290 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 2: Yeah? Or just you know that is over? 291 00:13:58,559 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 4: Yeah? 292 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 2: Okay, we're you going with your second. 293 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 4: Uh so we got a punter prop. Unfortunately, the Eagles 294 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 4: punting situation is a bit murky because the guy's uh 295 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 4: spiros is coming back from the ir and we don't 296 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 4: know who poss the posse, confusing Aaron. 297 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 2: The announcers. 298 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, so I halted all my Eagles punter research, 299 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 4: as you can tell. So if it was Brett Kerrn, 300 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 4: I was hammering the unders. But now sipos might play 301 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 4: either way. We have a punter prop I am locking 302 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 4: in right now, and it's Tommy Townsend. His first punt 303 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 4: to go over forty six and a half yards at 304 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 4: minus one eighteen. So Townsend has been phenomenal this year 305 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 4: and he's cleared this on thirty nine of his sixty 306 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 4: one punts this season, so that's a sixty four hit rate. 307 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 4: This game will be played at Cardinal Stadium, which is indoors. Obviously, 308 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 4: it's in Glendale Air, Arizona, which is about a thoul. 309 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 4: It's one and fifty two feet above sea level to 310 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 4: be exact, So it's a It's a neutral to positive 311 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 4: situation where you know something like wind won't help or 312 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 4: hurt him here, but the elevation can only help in 313 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 4: this prop. So I'm factoring in some aggression in my sins, 314 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 4: so I'm not getting quite the sixty four percent hit 315 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 4: rate this season, So I'm showing this closer to a 316 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 4: sixty percent chance his first punt will go over forty 317 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 4: six and a half yards, And this will be a 318 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 4: fun wor to root for because we're just waiting to 319 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 4: see where the Chiefs will be their field position on 320 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 4: their first punt. Obviously we want them, you know, like 321 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 4: you said, we don't want them, you know, punting around 322 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 4: midfield for this one to hit. But that's all sorted 323 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 4: out when you factor in the entire season sample. So 324 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 4: I'm liking this one. I think we have a sixty 325 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 4: percent chance to clear it, and I think we should 326 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 4: have some more punter props by the you know, by 327 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 4: kickoff once we have a better clue on who was 328 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 4: punting for the Eagles. 329 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: Was that you're you're factoring in like what like twenty 330 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: five percent regression and seventy five percent, Like it's just 331 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: he has been so much the stabilization rate for punters 332 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: I need to know, I would say about one hundred punts, 333 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: one hundreds of factoring in. 334 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 4: But he's been phenomenal this year, like I said, So 335 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 4: we can't use that sixty four percent clip, So yeah about. 336 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I'm just curious actually because like that's been 337 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: I haven't projected punters out. I may, I may do it, 338 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: but uh yeah, that that just saves me time for Yeah, all. 339 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 4: I'm just saying, you got yeah, trust my process. 340 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 2: I'm not just going no, I do. That's why that's. 341 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's on the same page on this, I'm saying 342 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 4: he has been he's almost been too good this year. 343 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 4: Sixty four percent is not a realistic rate for him 344 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 4: to keep up, but I think sixty percent is fair. 345 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, all right. 346 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: I mean you are the foremost authority on punter props, 347 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 1: so yeah, I definitely trust you and everybody out there 348 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: listening as well. All Right, for my second one, I'm 349 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: gonna go Jay wh hurts under two hundred and forty 350 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 1: seven and a half passing yards. He's been under two 351 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: forty four in twelve seventeen games under two forty and 352 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 1: ten to seventeen, and I think there's a lot of 353 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 1: thought that, Okay, if the Eagles are trailing, you know 354 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 1: that that increases his number. And I factored that in obviously, 355 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: Like I said, I think this is their gonna be 356 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: their lowest spread of the year, So like that's that's 357 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 1: factor in here for me is like his game, the 358 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: game script for them in terms of their pass run 359 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 1: splits are probably the highest I haven't projected all year, 360 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: and yet I'm still going still have around two hundred 361 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: and thirty five for his passing yards. And if you 362 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 1: look at his games this year, the five times that 363 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: he went over this number, only one of those games 364 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: did the Eagles win by fewer than sixteen, So they 365 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: had they they would have a thirty five to ten 366 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: win when he threw for three to eighty against Tennessee, 367 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: a twenty four to eight win when he threw for 368 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: three forty, twenty four to seven against Minnesota, threw for 369 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 1: three thirty three, and then thirty five thirteen against Pittsburg 370 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: he threw. 371 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 2: For two eighty five. 372 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: The only close game was the Bears game, where he 373 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 1: threw for three fifteen, So his only loss he threw 374 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: for just one seventy five. So there's a chance that, 375 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 1: like if the Eagles are in a trund game script, 376 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: it's because Hurts is not throwing the ball well, and 377 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 1: unlike a guy like Mahomes, it's not like the Eagles 378 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: are just going to go super pass heavy necessarily, you know, 379 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: the minute they get in a little bit of trouble 380 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: like if anything. And what's interesting about Hurts too is 381 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 1: that I think Greg Olsen because you know, he's great 382 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: and shouldn't be replaced by anybody next year as a 383 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:43,479 Speaker 1: top Fox broadcaster. But hint, but I think he mentioned 384 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: that the Eagles like to generally go past heavy early 385 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: in games. 386 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 2: So all of this to say. 387 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: That they've already they already may have kind of maxed 388 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,439 Speaker 1: out their passing, and the Chiefs defense has only been 389 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: getting better as the year is progressed, and they're pretty 390 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 1: much league average in DVOA now against the past. So 391 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 1: this is not, you know, a crazy bad matchup or 392 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,880 Speaker 1: crazy good matchup, I should say, so, I just think 393 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: because it's the Super Bowl, and because Jalen Hurts is 394 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 1: such a star, you know, he's one of obviously top 395 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 1: one of the top two for MVP, just a little 396 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 1: bit of inflation and I would actually I haven't really 397 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: seen this number move too much. 398 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 4: Now. 399 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 1: This might be the first pod that I actually gave 400 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: this number out on. But like I said, I think 401 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: I just think the market is so much bigger than 402 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: us for this, like sometimes on these you know, when 403 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: we give out these weird props on like a week thirteen, 404 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 1: they'll move it immediately. But I just think there's too 405 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 1: much money coming in from at all books for like 406 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 1: us to significantly or anyone have given out a number 407 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: to significantly move it. 408 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 2: So I would I mean, I don't know what. 409 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: You think, but I would suggest, as with most unders, 410 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 1: probably can wait, right because I think this is only 411 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 1: going up, even if even if it maybe goes down 412 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: initially by a couple of yards after you know, some 413 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: people hear in the pod, maybe they'll bet at anyway, 414 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: But I would think closer to Sunday, you know, people 415 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 1: are going to say, oh, you know, Jalen hurts two 416 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,120 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty or forty something that that doesn't seem 417 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: too bad, hard to clear, and and I think that 418 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 1: the number will go up, So I wouldn't even be 419 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 1: in a rush. Same thing with the QUEZ, honestly, I mean, 420 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 1: I just think everybody who you want to be under 421 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: you can probably wait because the majority of bets kind 422 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: to come in on overs, and there's so much, so 423 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: much new money coming in for the Super Bowl. 424 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I would agree with that. If you like 425 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 4: any unders, just wait, they're only going to get bad 426 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 4: up because Super Bowl has the most public square action 427 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,880 Speaker 4: of any game. So, like you said, whatever we give 428 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 4: out it might change, you know, immediately, and then it'll 429 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 4: just go right back to where it was, if not 430 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 4: more so, I would agree with that. But what where 431 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 4: are you projecting his median? 432 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: So the median would be about two thirty two and 433 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: a half. 434 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 4: How many let me backtrack here, how many completions do 435 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 4: you haven't projected for? That's a better question. 436 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: I'll give you the averages first, and so twenty point 437 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 1: six for thirty one point eight completions in attempts. Yeah, 438 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 1: two huge of thirty five yards, which comes out to 439 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: seven point four in attempt eleven point four completion. So 440 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: the median would be about usually about two to three 441 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: yards lower for quarterbacks. So I'd say his median is 442 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 1: about to anywhere from two thirty to thirty two to 443 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: thirty three. 444 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 2: Yeah. 445 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 4: Yeah. And that's the thing with these passing air props. 446 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 4: There's such a wide range of outcomes, especially with a 447 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 4: guy like Hurts. So there might be like alternate markets 448 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 4: out there where you can maybe get like plus two 449 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 4: hundred for under two twenty five or something like that. 450 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 4: But there's a lot of options for this. And like 451 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 4: you said, yeah, trailing game script could mean that Hurts 452 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 4: is struggling. 453 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that would. 454 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 4: And yeah, and like his scramble rate has been a 455 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 4: lot lower. I kind of mentioned that with the Miles 456 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 4: Sanders prop. But he could scramble more here. If he's 457 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 4: struggling passing, maybe he'll scramble more because of that. He 458 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 4: had that white A J. Brown wide open, he sailed 459 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 4: it over his head. So he has been struggling as 460 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 4: a passer the past couple of games. So yeah, I 461 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 4: like it. I have his median right around two forty, 462 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 4: but it was just such a wide range of outcomes. 463 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 4: I'm staying away. 464 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 2: But you know, I mean you're still under that. 465 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: Still you're under by a whole like attempt, So that's 466 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,120 Speaker 1: still that's still pretty good. 467 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 2: I mean. 468 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, And like you said, I'm factoring in the rare 469 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 4: close game script ye for the Eagles, so his you know, 470 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 4: his passing projection is way higher than it would be normally. 471 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 4: So there's I guess we're saying there's a lot more 472 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 4: downside than upside than people realize. So yeah, I would 473 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 4: agree with the market's probably you know, inflated now, but 474 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 4: it's only going to be more inflated by the time 475 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 4: we get to kick off. 476 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 1: And interesting thing, uh that I was actually kind of surprised, 477 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: But so I I, you know, what I'm doing my 478 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:47,640 Speaker 1: defensive adjustments. 479 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: I you know, I schedule adjust them too, So. 480 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: Like I'm I'm factoring in all of the offenses that 481 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: each defense played before I factor in any defensive adjustments, 482 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 1: like based on the Chiefs, for Jalen Hurts his passing numbers, 483 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: but the Chiefs, I'm actually showing that they're they, you know, 484 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 1: against the league average quarterback, they would take off about 485 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: about point two yards and attempt at about point four 486 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: yards of completion. So like the Chiefs defense has actually 487 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: been a little bit better then. I think people think 488 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: that's what I was kind of alluding to, and that's 489 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: why they're jumping up in in the. 490 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 2: You know, in the dvo RA ratings as well. But 491 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, even something like, you know, look 492 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 2: at last week. 493 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: I mean I think you know, people's looked at Joe Burrow, Hey, 494 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow against the Chiefs. This guy through forty one 495 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,160 Speaker 1: times only twenty seventy yards, you know, and I mean 496 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: that's not even you know, the sacks or the sacks. 497 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: But even when he wasn't sacked and he had you 498 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 1: know he had, he still had Jamar Chase t. Higgins 499 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: made an incredible catch, uh peyden Hurst made a crazy 500 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,919 Speaker 1: clutch catch, and like still when we got to two 501 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 1: seventy uh and and you know Burrow is a guy 502 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 1: who you know, he's usually at you know, two eighty 503 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 1: plus at least so and and on you know, less 504 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 1: attempts than that. So uh yeah, I think the Chiefs 505 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 1: defense is coming on strong and uh and uh. 506 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 4: Really good at Yeah, this guy's and coverage is and 507 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 4: last week against the Niners, Hurts is really struggling when 508 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 4: they were disguising coverages. It didn't matter ultimately because the 509 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 4: Niners didn't have a fricking quarterback in the second half, 510 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 4: but that could have been a story, you know, if 511 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,919 Speaker 4: it was a closer game. So similar style of defense 512 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 4: where they are going to be disguising coverages and maybe 513 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 4: frustrating Hurts. So yeah, his struggles could continue against Chiefs. 514 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 2: All right, well we'll go with your third and final prop. 515 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 2: So I got a. 516 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 4: Little bit of a random one, but I found some 517 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 4: value on this, so I want to lock it in early. 518 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 4: But it's will both teams make a thirty three or 519 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 4: longer field goal. I'm going with no at minus one ten, 520 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 4: So it's even more likely if you use both team's 521 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 4: actual game logs this this season. Harrison Bucker has made 522 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 4: a thirty three plus yarder in seven of fifteen games, 523 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,360 Speaker 4: so that's a forty seven percent rate, while Jake Eliot 524 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 4: Elliott has only made a thirty three plus yarder in 525 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 4: six of eighteen games, so thirty three percent rate, So 526 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 4: closer to a sixty four percent chance of no hitting 527 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 4: if you just take the raw data from the season, 528 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 4: And a lot of that has to do with the 529 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 4: Eagles passing up field goals at the highest rate this season, 530 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,479 Speaker 4: and have to imagine they're going to be even more 531 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 4: aggressive against the Chiefs. You know, they're going to want 532 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 4: to really run up the score. So that that's certainly 533 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 4: in favor of this prop, but based on all my sims, 534 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,680 Speaker 4: that's gonna you know, smooth things out a bit. There's 535 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 4: about a sixty four percent chance either Casey or Philly 536 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 4: doesn't make a field goal at all. In this game, 537 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 4: so that that would be an automatic winner, of course, 538 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 4: and around an eight percent chance both teams make a 539 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 4: field goal, but you know one of the teams doesn't 540 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 4: make one that's longer than thirty three yards, so it 541 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,679 Speaker 4: comes out to about a forty two percent chance. You know, 542 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 4: both teams make a thirty three yard field goal or more, 543 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 4: so that's a fifty eight percent chance no hits. But again, 544 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 4: if you use just the raw data for this season, 545 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 4: it'd be closer to sixty four percent chance. So maybe 546 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 4: I'm being a little bit conservative, but you know, not 547 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 4: something you bet the mortgage on necessarily, But you know, 548 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 4: this is shown some nice value here, So I'll take 549 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 4: it at minus one ten and I bet this probably 550 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 4: down to about minus one thirty or so. But this 551 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 4: is just a fun one that I'll bet, and it's 552 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 4: not going to really influence how I bet the rest 553 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 4: of the game, which is which is nice. 554 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think you know, both teams are probably 555 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: gonna want to be aggressive if they get that close, 556 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,679 Speaker 1: like that's that's kind of thing. So I mean, at 557 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: the biggest the biggest risk is if like one team 558 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: makes one earlier, then the other team is like driving 559 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 1: for the win weight and they get like close. But yeah, 560 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: besides that, I think, you know, thirty three yard field 561 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,959 Speaker 1: goal or just because the Eagles are probably gonna say, 562 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,119 Speaker 1: all right, Patrick Mahomes is on the other side, and 563 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 1: so like we can't just settle for thirty three yard 564 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 1: field goals. And then the Chiefs, you know they Ma 565 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 1: Hoomes never wants to settle for right exactly Yea, So yeah, 566 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 1: all right, I'll close it up with I'll give people 567 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: a fun one since I know people are gonna want 568 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,679 Speaker 1: to bet and anytime touchdown this is just like a 569 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: model breaker to me, like Travis Kelcey plus minus one 570 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: twenty five anytime touchdown, Like usually I wouldn't beten any 571 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: time touchdown prop And I think, you know, on a 572 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: normal game, this would probably be a little bit inflated. 573 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: But two things work at in Kelsey's favorite here, well 574 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 1: really three things. One is just the matchup, like obviously 575 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough to throw outside and get you know, 576 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 1: a ton of action from your receivers at Slay and 577 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: Bradberry on the outside. But you look at the two 578 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: the narrative obviously Kelsey versus his brother, I'm sure that 579 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 1: he's gonna want to get in the end zone, and 580 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:30,719 Speaker 1: they'll probably try as hard as they can to, but 581 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: just in the postseason, it just always manages to happen 582 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: for him. 583 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,120 Speaker 2: He's scored a touchdown in each. 584 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 1: Of his past five postseason games, and he scored a 585 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: touchdown in eleven of his past fourteen postseason games, including 586 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 1: ten of thirteen with Mahomes. So he's just kind of 587 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,879 Speaker 1: it gets to the playoffs, and you know, he's just 588 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 1: a different animal that you can't really model, almost like 589 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: you can't factor in like, oh, his you know, week 590 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,439 Speaker 1: eight data when it comes to the postseason. So I 591 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: think he has I think there's probably posted to like 592 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 1: a two to three chance here that he gets in 593 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 1: the in the in the end zone, and the books, 594 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 1: you know, just because like I said, I think the 595 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 1: true odds probably be closer to even money in a 596 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: normal game. But in a game like this, I'm totally 597 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: fine at minus went twenty five when you're talking about 598 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 1: a guy that's that's hit this in eighty two percent 599 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: of his last you know, of the last six years 600 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 1: in the playoffs, Yeah, totally. 601 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 4: And last week, you know, he was barely able to 602 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 4: suit up. We were getting those reports, He's like like 603 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 4: a legit game time decision. 604 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, sure he was gonna miss the Anty championship. 605 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, back schasms are no joke. If you get one, 606 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,879 Speaker 4: he literally can't move and he's still finished with seven 607 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 4: catches seventy eight yards in a touchdown. So yeah, that 608 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 4: that's probably his floor. So yeah, like you said, my 609 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 4: fair price is around you know, even money, but yeah, 610 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 4: it's not factory in the biggest game of the season, 611 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 4: where you know Holmes is probably going to force feed 612 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 4: it to Kelsey, especially in the red zone. 613 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 1: Another thing working in his favor is he scored the 614 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: first touchdown this year in eight of the. 615 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 2: Nineteen Chiefs games. 616 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 1: So like it's you're usually like, whatever happens when if 617 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 1: the game goes whatever the way it goes, like usually 618 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 1: he's going to be. 619 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 2: The first guy to score. 620 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,160 Speaker 1: Like so it's you know, he has like that kind 621 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: of added uh that added upside or floor. I guess 622 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: you could say of like, you know, whatever happens later 623 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 1: in the game game script wise, A lot of times 624 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 1: who have already scored, So as long as thirty one 625 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: nine like blowout again. 626 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, would you would you consider you know, 627 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 4: first touchdown score or they have like anytime touchdown score 628 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 4: first half where you can get them like you know, 629 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 4: plus three hundred. I know, it's all more subjective. 630 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, Marches, I mean even I mean even obviously the 631 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: two plus touchdowns you know, or and play as well. 632 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,480 Speaker 1: It's just but yeah, he's been he's just been a 633 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 1: different animal in the postseason, something you can't really ignore. 634 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 4: Well, like I say, when it comes to Super Bowl, 635 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 4: of those two plus touchdown markets, if you're going that 636 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 4: route anyway, you might want to consider a Super Bowl 637 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 4: MVP because you can usually get better value there and 638 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 4: when it catchers catching two plus touchdowns, they're more likely 639 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 4: to win MVP. You know, I'm having flashbacks of t 640 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 4: Higgins last year, but you know, a situation like that, 641 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,239 Speaker 4: it could be a winner. So sometimes you can get 642 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 4: better odds if you just take him MVP. But either way, yeah, 643 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 4: Travis Kelsey's probably having a good game, all right. 644 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 1: So that that's going to wrap it up for our 645 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: super early Super Bowl NFL Player Prop Picks episode presented 646 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 1: by Fando to recap Sean is going with Miles Sanders 647 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: to lead the game in rushing yards at plus one 648 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 1: seventy five, Tommy Townsend first punt over forty six and 649 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 1: a half, and both teams not to make a field 650 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 1: goal of thirty three plus yards, and I'm going with 651 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 1: Qus Watkins under one and a half receptions, Jalen Hurts 652 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 1: under two hundred and forty seven and a half passing yards, 653 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,959 Speaker 1: and Travis Chelsea minus one twenty five anytime touchdown. As 654 00:30:55,960 --> 00:31:00,080 Speaker 1: a quick reminder, a subscription to Action Pro is you 655 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 1: get the most out of the action. 656 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 2: Happened right now. 657 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 1: It is being offered at forty percent off. This is 658 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: only being offered through the NFL playoffs, so time is 659 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: running out. If you don't already have Pro, now is 660 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 1: the best time to subscribe and unlock all the. 661 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:17,239 Speaker 2: Best features in the Action app. That's it for us. 662 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 1: You can find Sewan on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker, 663 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: you can find me at Chris Raybond, and you can 664 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: find us at those same handles on the free. 665 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 2: Award winning Action Network app. 666 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 1: Be sure check out actionnetwork dot com for all of 667 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 1: our vetting content, Fantasylabs dot com for our DFS tools 668 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 1: and models, and we'll have our full PROPABLEWS episode out 669 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 1: next week as well as the betting previous episode You 670 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: Get Stucky. 671 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 2: That'll be out Monday, so look out. 672 00:31:43,920 --> 00:32:18,080 Speaker 3: For those episodes and until next time, Fish Money. 673 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 674 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 675 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler