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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: As Ukraine birds for Russia's spring offensive, the United Nations

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Speaker 2: Secretary General is calling out Russia for the massive suffering,

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Speaker 2: as he put it, in devastation it has brought to Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Antonio Gutierre is telling the Security Council quote, we must

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Speaker 2: find a way forward and act now as we have

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Speaker 2: done before, to stop the slide toward chaos and conflict.

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Speaker 2: Now Gutera's is speaking as Russia's top diplomat sits essentially

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Speaker 2: across the table. Sergei Lavrov in town to lead the

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Speaker 2: Security Council. Its presidency is up in the rotation here,

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Speaker 2: making us all wonder how does this work?

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Speaker 3: Again?

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Speaker 2: And Lavrov was having none of it. Here he is

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Speaker 2: speaking through a translator.

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Speaker 4: Let's call a spade a spade. Nobody allowed the Western

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Speaker 4: minority to speak on behalf of all of humankind. There's

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Speaker 4: a need to be polite and to respect all members

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Speaker 4: of the international community by imposing the rules based order

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Speaker 4: its sponsors arrogantly reject to keep principle of the Charter

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Speaker 4: of the United Nations, namely sovereign in quality of states.

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Speaker 2: Lavrov chose the quote defense of the UN Charter as

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Speaker 2: the topic for today's session. Pretty rich considering everything that

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Speaker 2: has happened in the last year. And that's where we

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Speaker 2: begin our conversation with Kurt Volker. I'm glad to stay

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Speaker 2: back with us former US Ambassador to NATO, former Special

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Speaker 2: Representative for Ukraine negotiations. Ambassador welcome. What is the point

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Speaker 2: of the UN? When Russia continues its role on the

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Speaker 2: Security Council like this? I realize it's got a veto

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Speaker 2: The General Secretary's words seem to carry so little weight.

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Speaker 3: What's the point of this exercise?

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Speaker 5: Well, when the UN was founded, there was a belief

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Speaker 5: that the members of Security Council shared an objective in

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Speaker 5: maintaining international peace and security. This was Russia or the

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Speaker 5: Soviet Union at the time. Having I've been a lot

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Speaker 5: of flashism and World War two and nationalists China, not

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Speaker 5: the current communist government of China. This has been completely destroyed.

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Speaker 5: We now have a Security Council where two of the

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Speaker 5: members are fundamentally against international peace and security, and they

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Speaker 5: are exploiting the system. So we can't take any of

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Speaker 5: this money seriously anymore, and we have to. No one

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Speaker 5: wants to destroy the UN, No one wants to see

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Speaker 5: the organization as a whole go away. Would rather see

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Speaker 5: good governments.

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Speaker 2: In place that took the ambassador. I'm having such a

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Speaker 2: hard time hearing you. I think it might be worth

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Speaker 2: reconnecting if you could just hang on two seconds. We're

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Speaker 2: going to try to do that. Get back on a

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Speaker 2: better line here, and please listen to it this time

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Speaker 2: so we can understand what the ambassador is telling us here.

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Speaker 2: This is a critical moment as we are potentially weeks,

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Speaker 2: if not days, ahead of this springtime offensive, and Ukraine

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Speaker 2: is talking about a counter offensive, which is why d

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Speaker 2: meet you Kalaba once again today put in the ask

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Speaker 2: for fighter jets. We've been hearing this for days and

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Speaker 2: it doesn't seem that following the meeting of the Contact

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Speaker 2: Group in Germany that that's about to happen, though M

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Speaker 2: one tanks have made their way or about to make

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Speaker 2: their way to Ukraine according to the administration, and many

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Speaker 2: are wondering what is left here, what needs to be

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Speaker 2: done with China potentially speaking of the truth out loud.

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Speaker 2: You see this story on the terminal the ambassador or

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Speaker 2: special envoy I guess they call him to France, Lusche

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Speaker 2: saying in an interview that former Soviet nations do not

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Speaker 2: have sovereign status, which was probably a surprise to the

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Speaker 2: people of Estonia and Lithuania. But Beijing is walking those

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Speaker 2: comments back, and we'll talk about that as well with

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Speaker 2: Ambassador Kurt Volker, who's back on the line now. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for putting up with this, Ambassador. I hope we can

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Speaker 2: continue our conversation here, get back to where we started

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Speaker 2: with Russia's role on the Security Council and the purpose

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Speaker 2: of this meeting.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that no one wants to see the

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Speaker 5: UN destroyed, so people don't want to give up on

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Speaker 5: the UN. But we are living through a situation where

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Speaker 5: two of the members of the Security Council who have

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Speaker 5: a veto are fundamentally not in favor of international peace

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Speaker 5: and security anymore. Certainly, Russia has deliberately attacked its neighbor

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Speaker 5: whose territory recognizes and who is a member of the

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Speaker 5: United Nations. So what's going on now is a bit

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Speaker 5: of a farce, and frankly, Lavrov really doesn't have any

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Speaker 5: role in Russian policymaking anymore, if you ever did. But

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Speaker 5: we go through this because we don't want to see

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Speaker 5: the institution destroyed.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a fair answer here in terms of reality, Ambassador.

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Speaker 2: We don't know exactly when Russia is going to ring

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Speaker 2: the bell, and I suspect there's no bell to ring

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Speaker 2: here as we walk up on a spring offensive.

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Speaker 3: Is Ukraine ready for this?

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Speaker 5: Ukraine is getting ready. They are still trying to gather

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Speaker 5: as much ammunition and equipment and trained personnel and logistical

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Speaker 5: support as possible and wait for the weather to be

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Speaker 5: favorable because they have to let the ground dry out

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Speaker 5: so armored vehicles and tracked vehicles can roll more easily.

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Speaker 5: They will launch a spring offensive. I think we're quite

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Speaker 5: sure of that, and it appears that Russia is in

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Speaker 5: very bad shape in terms of its defenses, so we

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Speaker 5: are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine is going to get some

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Speaker 5: of its territory back.

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Speaker 2: They're still asking, and made the ask again today from

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Speaker 2: Dmitri Kuleba for more. As they say western fighter jets,

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Speaker 2: I guess they mean F sixteen still by that it

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Speaker 2: doesn't appear they're going to get them, at least from

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Speaker 2: the US ambassador. Should a European nation hand them over

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Speaker 2: For the.

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Speaker 5: Western jets, what we've heard is that it would take

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Speaker 5: a significant amount of time to put in place of

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Speaker 5: logistical support to keep them flying, as well as training

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Speaker 5: the pilots and the crews, something that we could have

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Speaker 5: started on a year ago and we didn't, but now

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Speaker 5: we lost that year and it would be difficult to

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Speaker 5: get them those things. Now. Some NATO allies have provided

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Speaker 5: them Make twenty nine. They probably have a full squadron

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Speaker 5: of Mike twenty nines provided by NATO allies now, Slovaki

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Speaker 5: and Poland among them. And there may be other types

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Speaker 5: of aircraft that are not as complicated as something like

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Speaker 5: inn F sixteen one that I think could be very

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Speaker 5: useful as a ground attack aircraft like an E ten,

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Speaker 5: which are relatively simple to fly in which we've mothballed

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Speaker 5: in the US and could easily declare an excess defense article.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty interesting to consider. The strategy behind F sixteen's

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Speaker 2: was questioned on this program last week, suggesting that you

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Speaker 2: know this is a gorilla style war that Ukraine is

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Speaker 2: trying to fight, and it should not try to duplicate

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Speaker 2: the air force of the US. For instance, in doing so,

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Speaker 2: those M one tanks we sent though get in in

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Speaker 2: the mix. The Leopard tanks from Germany get in the mix.

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Speaker 2: You put eight hens in the air, and that could

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Speaker 2: be a game changing scenario.

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Speaker 5: Right, it could be, And I would hesitate to call

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Speaker 5: this a guerrilla style thing. The Russians have all the

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Speaker 5: modern equipment, relatively modern equipment in principle, they've seen a

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Speaker 5: lot of it's destroyed. But they're dealing with guided missiles,

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Speaker 5: they're dealing with artillery, they're dealing with tanks, APCs, aircraft, helicopters, submarines.

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Speaker 5: And the Ukrainians they need to gather a combined armed

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Speaker 5: offensive capability, which is tanks and armored fighting vehicles, air

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Speaker 5: cover air defenses, and they need to do so and

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Speaker 5: develop speed as they attack the Russian forces to try

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Speaker 5: to overcome those initial defenses. That's going to require bridging equipment,

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Speaker 5: de mining equipment, things like that. So I wouldn't describe

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Speaker 5: that as a guerrilla thing. I would describe that as

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Speaker 5: getting the right kinds of equipment for maneuver warfare that

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Speaker 5: they can probably do better than the Russians, who've seen

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Speaker 5: a lot of their capabilit would be destroyed. But they

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Speaker 5: need that help from US, both in the equipment and

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Speaker 5: in the training.

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Speaker 2: I'm talking with Kurt Bulka, the former Special Representative for

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Speaker 2: Ukraine Negotiations and former US Ambassador to NATO. What's your

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Speaker 2: thought of these remarks from the Chinese diplomat Luche, ambassador

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Speaker 2: to France, talking about former Soviet nations and what he sees.

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Speaker 2: Is there a lack of sovereign status. Isn't that exactly

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Speaker 2: what Vladimir Putin probably says when he gets together with

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Speaker 2: President she.

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Speaker 5: It probably is. And it's really concerning because I understand

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Speaker 5: that China wants his ambassadors to be out there as

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Speaker 5: so called wolf warriors, just being assertive and provogative and

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Speaker 5: pushing Chinese nationalist agenda. But what he said here is

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Speaker 5: both factually wrong and very destructive. And international system that

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Speaker 5: China relies upon. It policy has always been to support

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Speaker 5: sovereignty of independent member states, and he's completely wrong when

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Speaker 5: he says they're not accepted by any treaty. Russia has

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Speaker 5: treaties for some of these countries. They have recognized borders

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Speaker 5: they have been admitted to the United Nations with former

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Speaker 5: legal documentation. What's interesting is that Russia never applied to

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Speaker 5: join the United Nations. They're coasting on the fact that

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Speaker 5: the Soviet Union had been a member, but Russia never

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Speaker 5: converted its status, whereas these other countries actually did well.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you it does seem to be a case

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Speaker 2: of maybe the truth creeping out. As the Chinese embassy

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Speaker 2: in France removes the transcript from that interview that Luche

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Speaker 2: conducted with LCI, is that a better indicator of where

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Speaker 2: Beijing actually stands on this.

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Speaker 5: I think so. They don't like to contradict themselves, or

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Speaker 5: they're diplomats, they don't want to say he was wrong,

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Speaker 5: But the fact is he was wrong, and I think

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Speaker 5: taking it down as an indicator of that. And I

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Speaker 5: think that if you start playing through the implications, you're

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Speaker 5: now saying that Kazakhstan, a neighbor of China and a

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Speaker 5: vast one in which China has huge interests, that that

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Speaker 5: should actually be part of Russia. I don't think the

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Speaker 5: Chinese mean that, No, I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: The race to get foreign nationals out of Sedan continues

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Speaker 2: here as violence escalates.

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Speaker 3: Ambassador.

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Speaker 2: We know that special operations forces from the US evacuated

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Speaker 2: the American embassy over the weekend, but more than sixteen

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Speaker 2: thousand American citizens remain in the country. I realize some

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Speaker 2: of them are dual citizens, but the National Security Council

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Speaker 2: spokesman John Kirby, speaking to ABC Today, said continued evacuations

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Speaker 2: are just not safe right now.

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Speaker 3: Here's how we put it.

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Speaker 6: We still have military forces prepositioned in the region ready

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Speaker 6: to respond if need be, but right now it's not

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Speaker 6: very safe to try to run some larger evacuation, either

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Speaker 6: out of a nearby air base or even just through

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Speaker 6: rotary lift like we did the other night, because the

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Speaker 6: fighting is so intense.

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Speaker 2: Ambassador, does that need to continue to be reevaluated? And

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Speaker 2: why want the administration called this a civil war?

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Speaker 5: I think, first off, on the civil war question, these

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Speaker 5: are two factions within the military fighting each other without

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Speaker 5: really having the populace behind them on either side, So

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Speaker 5: I think this is not an internal civil war that way.

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Speaker 5: As far as getting Americans out, I think it's important

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Speaker 5: to remember one distinction between the situation Afghanistan situation now

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Speaker 5: in Sudan. In Afghanistan, we were holding the security environment

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Speaker 5: together and we pulled out, and a lot of Americans

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Speaker 5: and a lot of people have been working with the

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Speaker 5: United States got left behind. That I think we could

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Speaker 5: and should have done something about preventively. The case in Sudan.

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Speaker 5: This is internal fighting that has erupted between these two

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Speaker 5: warring factions within the military, and we are not on

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Speaker 5: the ground there. We have not controlled the security situation

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Speaker 5: in this way the way that we did in Afghanistan.

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Speaker 5: And these citizens, whether they're dual citizens or not, doesn't

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Speaker 5: matter their American citizens. They have had an opportunity to leave.

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Speaker 5: They still deserve an opportunity to leave. We should be

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Speaker 5: evaluating what our options are, whether we can find some

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Speaker 5: way to help people get out, to help extract them.

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Speaker 5: But I don't think we share the responsibility for their

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Speaker 5: being in parallel the way that we did in Afghanistan.

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Speaker 2: Speaking on MSNBC earlier today, John Kirby again says the

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Speaker 2: US military is providing overwatch through unmanned systems, unmanned aerial

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Speaker 2: systems of that convoy, so we can keep tabs on it.

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Speaker 2: We're going to be positioning naval assets, he says, in

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Speaker 2: the Red Sea in case they're going to be needed

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Speaker 2: to help Americans that want to leave. Is this purely

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Speaker 2: an evacuation exercise that, ambassador, or does the US have

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Speaker 2: other concerns incident?

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Speaker 5: First off, I think it is all about evacuation. We

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Speaker 5: want to have forces in place where if there is

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Speaker 5: a decision by the President to go into Sudan in

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Speaker 5: order to get Americans out, you have enough capability combat

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Speaker 5: capability to protect everybody while you do that. So I

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Speaker 5: think that's what all of that is about. I don't

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Speaker 5: think it's about a larger goal. What we do have

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Speaker 5: to worry about, as we've seen in this part of Africa, Sudan, Djibouti,

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Speaker 5: the risk that terrorist groups take advantage of a chaotic situation,

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Speaker 5: get their hands on a lot of weapons, and then

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Speaker 5: strengthen terrorist organizations like ISIS or others that exist in

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Speaker 5: the Sahel in North Africa. So that I think will

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Speaker 5: be something that will be watching over time to see

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Speaker 5: does this security situation stabilize and do people re establish

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Speaker 5: some sense of security or do you now have a

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Speaker 5: lot of loose weapons and a lot of the governed area.

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Speaker 2: I just ask you these very basic questions, Ambassador, because

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Speaker 2: of a lot of Americans are just tuning into this.

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Speaker 2: Wait a minute, Sudan, is this something I should be

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Speaker 2: worried about?

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Speaker 3: How would you answer them?

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Speaker 5: I would say yes, Sudan is one of the largest

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Speaker 5: countries in Africa. It's touching Egypt in the north, and

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Speaker 5: it's going into Sub Saharan Africa well in the south.

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Speaker 5: It's got an ethnic divide, it's got a religious Christian divide.

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Speaker 5: It's got borders with some other key important countries, the

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Speaker 5: Horn of Africa and the East, and Libya and Chad

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Speaker 5: in the west. So it's touching everything, and the spillmover

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Speaker 5: potential of weapons and of radical groups from there could

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Speaker 5: be significant.

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Speaker 2: So keep eyes on it. The honorable Kirk Vulkirk. Great

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Speaker 2: to have you, ambassador, and I hope that we'll talk

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Speaker 2: again soon. Here on Bloomberg Sound On, I'm Joe, Matthew,

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Speaker 2: and Washington will assemble our panel next.

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Speaker 3: Stay right where you are on Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: You connect the dots in our conversation with Kurt Volker.

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Speaker 2: There there's a lot to worry about, from Ukraine to

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Speaker 2: the Russia, China Axis, now Sudan, add North Korea.

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Speaker 3: Go ahead, put her on on the list.

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Speaker 2: There's not a theater on the planet that does not

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Speaker 2: bring some cause for concern to this administration. And here

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Speaker 2: we are, on the eve of what is expected to

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Speaker 2: be Joe Biden's announcement for a re election campaign. We

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Speaker 2: assemble our panel for their take on all of it.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst Genie Shanzano is here

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Speaker 2: joined today by Lisa Camuso Miller, republican strategist, former r

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Speaker 2: NC communications director, partner at Reset Public Affairs.

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Speaker 3: Great to have both of you here. Genie, if you're.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden, you go to bed tonight, getting ready to

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Speaker 2: go to bed up there in the White House residence,

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Speaker 2: and you're thinking about all this stuff. Is it time

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Speaker 2: to rewrite the announcement for tomorrow? I mean, we talk

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Speaker 2: so much about domestic politics driving the campaign the culture

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Speaker 2: wars Trump versus DeSantis, and it's in fact geopolitics that

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Speaker 2: seem to be consuming the day at the White House

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Speaker 2: now it is.

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Speaker 7: And there's so much interconnectedness as well. I mean, you

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Speaker 7: just look at the big battle over the debt ceiling

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Speaker 7: intimately connected with geopolitics, and you know, we all saw

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Speaker 7: Hillary clintonsop ed in the New York Times talking about

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Speaker 7: that connection. So you know, he's going to be hard

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Speaker 7: pressed to ignore. Not that he would the geopolitical option

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Speaker 7: or aspect, but I don't think he will rewrite. I

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Speaker 7: think he is going to if he does release this

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Speaker 7: video tomorrow, as we're hearing he might. I think he

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Speaker 7: is going to be asking voters to keep him on

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Speaker 7: despite all the challenges and because of all the challenges,

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Speaker 7: and let him finish the job that he started. And

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Speaker 7: he's going to try to contrast himself with Donald Trump

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Speaker 7: and the Republicans. I think, you know, if there's no

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Speaker 7: Joe Biden in my mind without Donald Trump, and I

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Speaker 7: think they are banking on a Trump primary win here

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Speaker 7: so that they can juxtapose Biden to him and he

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Speaker 7: can try to relive twenty twenty all over.

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Speaker 2: Again, putting the announcement aside for just a moment here, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: what do voters think about the Biden administration when it

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Speaker 2: comes to foreign affairs to geopolitics. You'll hear Trump ding

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Speaker 2: them a lot on China, for instance, and he'll say

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Speaker 2: that Putin never would have gone into your Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: If I was still president.

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Speaker 2: But are people thinking globally as they consider politics right now?

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Speaker 8: You know, I think it's hard for them to really

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Speaker 8: understand why geopolitics affects the way American politics works and

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Speaker 8: what the interplay is between the two. Joe, I'm actually,

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Speaker 8: you know, the more we talk about it, I mean,

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Speaker 8: it is so relevant, it's so important, But so many

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Speaker 8: of the voters that will be really the core set

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Speaker 8: of who we're trying to attract on both sides of

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Speaker 8: the aisle are folks that are really focused on pocketbook issues,

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Speaker 8: and so I think that, you know, if they're looking

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Speaker 8: at how they're doing at home, and they're doing well, well,

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Speaker 8: then let's make sure that the globe is stable. But

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Speaker 8: if at home is unstable, then you have to believe

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Speaker 8: that the voters are saying, like, let's get things right

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Speaker 8: here in the US before we do anything to support

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Speaker 8: the outside. I know that that is a very much

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Speaker 8: of a you know, sort of a nationalist approach and understanding.

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Speaker 8: But I really do think that people that are looking

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Speaker 8: for that support and that that help at home in

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Speaker 8: the home budget, they say, you know, my government and

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Speaker 8: my president really ought to serve me first. And that's

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Speaker 8: I think part of the difficulty for both Biden, Trump

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Speaker 8: and whoever ends up being the nominee on the Republican

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Speaker 8: side to figure out a way to weave the two

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Speaker 8: together and help voters understand why a stable Europe, a

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Speaker 8: stable globe, means a stable US.

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Speaker 2: So how does that present itself here in the campaign, Genie,

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Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about funding for Ukraine as being

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Speaker 2: a real point of friction between the Hawks and in

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Speaker 2: many cases the Freedom Caucus in the US House. Here

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Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy says no blank checks and so forth. But

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Speaker 2: it's really the rank and file that seemed to be

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Speaker 2: debating this. But then there are the American people, Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: there was a guy named Tucker Carlson who used to

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Speaker 2: be on TV. He would bring it up a lot

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Speaker 2: as well, what are voters going to think about this

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Speaker 2: when you see, you know, Joe Biden finally on a

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Speaker 2: debate stage with a Republican nominee, who is this?

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Speaker 7: Tucker Fellow there used to be on You know, I

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Speaker 7: do think we know that our elections at the presidential level,

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Speaker 7: for better or for worse, are usually played out on

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Speaker 7: domestic issues. But again, it is very, very difficult to

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Speaker 7: divorce them today. I mean, you don't even have to

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Speaker 7: look at polls or look at data. The American public

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Speaker 7: still buy and large supports the war in Ukraine. They

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Speaker 7: are opposed to the Russian invasion. Just to look at

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Speaker 7: one issue, but at the same token and by the

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Speaker 7: same token. To Lisa's point, some and this there will

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Speaker 7: be an increasingly large number as this war drags on,

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Speaker 7: start to say what more can we do? After the

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Speaker 7: billions of dollars spent? We have challenges here at home

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Speaker 7: that have to be addressed. So it's a very difficult

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Speaker 7: line for an incumbent president to walk, and I think

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Speaker 7: we're going to hear Joe Biden trying to walk that line,

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Speaker 7: but again, really hard. And the instability is something. And

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Speaker 7: you the litany of issues we are facing around the world,

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Speaker 7: you cover those with the ones at home, and people

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Speaker 7: are disenchanted. We're looking at seventy five percent of Americans

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Speaker 7: think we're headed in the wrong direction. That instability makes

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Speaker 7: it awfully hard for an incumbent, which again is why

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Speaker 7: Joe Biden wants to run against somebody who's more unpopular

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Speaker 7: than he is. You know, the Wall Street Journal poll

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Speaker 7: the other day was telling he beats Trump, he doesn't

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Speaker 7: necessarily beat a generic Republican or Ron DeSantis. That is

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Speaker 7: a telling noe, even though it's still early.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with our panel Janie Schanzano and Lisa Camuso Miller,

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Speaker 2: when it comes to handling China, this is like one

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Speaker 2: of the frequently built as one of the few bipartisan

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Speaker 2: issues out there. Lisa, the stories today are tough again.

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Speaker 2: Here you've got this special envoy, China's ambassador to France,

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Speaker 2: essentially talking about former Soviet nations without sovereign status, frequent

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Speaker 2: references to the China Russia axis. Does Joe Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: start need to start talking tougher. We hear a lot

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Speaker 2: about competition, but not conflict. How about we start calling them.

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Speaker 8: Out well, I mean the White House. What's interesting to

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Speaker 8: meet Joe about all of this is that we talk

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Speaker 8: about tomorrow. We talk about the President, we talk about

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Speaker 8: how he's going to be positioning and messaging the White

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Speaker 8: House today, in addition to all of the other pieces

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Speaker 8: that we've discussed China and otherwise, the White House is

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Speaker 8: saying that the messaging coming out of the White House

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Speaker 8: has been consistently since January focused in on issues that

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Speaker 8: are relevant to the re election campaign. So, whether it's China,

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Speaker 8: whether it's talking tough on Russia, whether it's whatever, the

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Speaker 8: messaging is, the White House is trying to present a

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Speaker 8: position where it doesn't matter. I feel like they're walking

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Speaker 8: back a little bit on what happen tomorrow, even because

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Speaker 8: they're saying, we're already engaged in a campaign. So whether

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Speaker 8: it's hard messaging on China, Russia, whether it's stepping out

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Speaker 8: on other issues, the White House absolutely the impetus is

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Speaker 8: on them to prove that they are strong, they're tough,

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Speaker 8: they're right, and they're doing everything not only for the

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Speaker 8: US but also to make geo politics in China and Russia.

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Speaker 8: The dangerous language that we're hearing today be consistent with

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Speaker 8: what it is they're going to be using as a

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Speaker 8: platform going forward.

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Speaker 2: Genie, I know you didn't love the idea of Nancy

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Speaker 2: Pelosi going to Taiwan at the time she did. I

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Speaker 2: don't think you love the idea of Kevin McCarthy meeting

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Speaker 2: with President CI when he did. But is that exactly

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Speaker 2: the type of thing that this administration should be supporting

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Speaker 2: To sort of draw a line here, to make a

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Speaker 2: contrast before this becomes a debate in the presidential.

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Speaker 7: Cycle, you know, and I don't think so. You know.

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Speaker 7: One of my opposition to both of those is the

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Speaker 7: fact that I'm not sure what we get out of it,

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Speaker 7: And so I think what we really need is we

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Speaker 7: need to have communication with China. And the very scary

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Speaker 7: part of the whole balloon episode, which seems eons ago now,

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Speaker 7: was the fact that that was cut off. So I

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Speaker 7: think the administration needs to keep talking to China about

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Speaker 7: what we have in common and need to work on,

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Speaker 7: including climate change, including human rights, including the economy, including

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Speaker 7: IP the litany of lists, the litany of issues rather

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Speaker 7: and so I'm not sure what we get out of

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Speaker 7: those congressional visits, and I know they are very popular.

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Speaker 7: So I am a lone wolf out there. But speaking

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Speaker 7: of wolves, Joe, can I just say yes, lou this

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Speaker 7: wolf warrior that the ambassador talked about. Twenty nineteen, he

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Speaker 7: accused Canada of white supremacy for calling for the release

437
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Speaker 7: of two Canadians. In August, he suggested the Taiwanese people

438
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 7: would need to be re educated following a takeover. I

439
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 7: think China needs to recall their wolf back to Beijing

440
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 7: at this point he has, you know, I think that's

441
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 7: what needs to happen. And I feel a little bit

442
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 7: for Macrone, which I don't say often.

443
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: There's a new opening in nightly cable news, Lisa, maybe

444
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: he should apply.

445
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 8: Let's hope not, although there is a lot of, like

446
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 8: very early speculation, Joe, the news just came what two

447
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 8: hours ago that Tucker was out at Fox. Don Lemon

448
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 8: was out before that at CNN. But there's a lot

449
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 8: of speculation today about how as much as they we

450
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 8: you know, people's perspective is that, you know, Tucker out

451
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 8: is a good thing. We could very well be in

452
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 8: a situation where the devil we know is better than

453
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 8: the one we don't.

454
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I'm not saying it's a good thing or

455
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 2: a bad thing because somebody's gonna dream up something. And

456
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: as far as Tucker goes well, you know, I'm not

457
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 2: sure he needs a cable network to appeal to his base.

458
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 3: Maybe he'll run our panel in place.

459
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: It will have a lot more with Lisa Camusa Miller

460
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 2: and Genie Shanzano coming up. This new polling data on

461
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 2: the Republican primary.

462
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: And also.

463
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: You'd be shocked still at how few Americans want Donald

464
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 2: Trump and Joe Biden to each run for election. We'll

465
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 2: get to that next.

466
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

467
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

468
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

469
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

470
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 3: Well, that's quite a headline.

471
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 2: A majority of Americans do not want either Joe Biden

472
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: or Donald Trump to run for reelection. But we're still

473
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 2: doing this and the numbers when you look inside each

474
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 2: contest are pretty fascinating. The latest from NBC News their

475
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: polls showing two thirds of Republican primary voters say they

476
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: stand behind former President Trump two thirds. Donald Trump now

477
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:43,199
Speaker 2: leading Ron De Santis in this poll forty six to

478
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 2: thirty one percent. Rond De Santis, of course, the governor

479
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: of Florida, on an Asian swing right now, touring or

480
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 2: at least visiting four nations, including Japan, where, of course,

481
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: he was asked about Donald Trump and the polling data.

482
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 2: His response has not been sheer by many who were watching.

483
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 9: Well, show you falling behind a Trump?

484
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on that.

485
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 9: I'm not a candidate, so we'll see if and when

486
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 9: that changes.

487
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: Bo kay.

488
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 2: Donald Trump carries the day again as we reassemble our

489
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 2: panel for their take on the field. Here Jeanie Shanzano,

490
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analysts, joined by Republican strategist

491
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller, former RNC communications director now with Reset

492
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 2: Public Affairs. Lisa, what's your thought here? It seems, at

493
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 2: least the criticism is every time Ron de Santis is

494
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: given an opportunity served up on a platter, he doesn't

495
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 2: seem to take it when it goes after when it

496
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 2: comes to going after Donald Trump.

497
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, the Governor's had a rough couple of weeks, Joe,

498
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 8: There's no question about that. I mean, really, this is

499
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 8: his first time entering into the national stage. He's under

500
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 8: a tremendous amount of pressure, just re elected governor of

501
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 8: Florida and being asked every single day about running for president.

502
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,640
Speaker 8: I mean, I remember watching this with Christy with Chris

503
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 8: Christy when he was doing the same it just been reelected,

504
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 8: was very popular amongst Republican voters and asked all the time.

505
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 8: I cannot imagine what the incoming must be like. Plus

506
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 8: he's fighting against Disney, Plus he's traveling to Asia. I mean,

507
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 8: he's really all over the place at this point.

508
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 2: We wouldn't we travel in Asia if he didn't want

509
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,919
Speaker 2: to run, right, Isn't that that's like the first thing

510
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: you do to appear presidential? So you're still in on

511
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 2: the campaign.

512
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 8: I agree, Yeah, I think he's still in. But you know,

513
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 8: these plans come together long, long ago. So perhaps they

514
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 8: were put together, you know, six months ago, and here

515
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 8: we are. He's on his way. I mean, Governor Younkin

516
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 8: from Virginia is also traveling over seas this week. So

517
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 8: it seems to me like, yes, that the plan is

518
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 8: still there. But that reaction, and you know, we're on radio,

519
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 8: so it's not a visual medium. But everyone that's on

520
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 8: the internet this morning and this afternoon is seeing the

521
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 8: look on Rond de Santis's face, And the only thing

522
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 8: I can read from that reaction is he's had quite enough.

523
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's really sick of being asked this. Then again,

524
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: Glen Youngkin is not being asked this, genius Lisa mentioned

525
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: they're both touring the region. Glen Youngkin's actually on official business,

526
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: meeting with the President of Taiwan on what was termed

527
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 2: at least as a trade mission. Are you reading into

528
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 2: that as well, like Glen Youngkin's still considering this or

529
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 2: is he just doing the business of the people of Virginia.

530
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 7: I think he's keeping all his options open. He did

531
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 7: we did here last week or the week before that.

532
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 7: He was sort of, you know, going to tamp down

533
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 7: a bit on the idea that he might run. But

534
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 7: you know, I think he has the benefit, unlike Ron DeSantis,

535
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 7: of not being at the top of the challenge Donald Trump.

536
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 7: You know, peak there. It's not a good place to be,

537
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 7: as Jeb Bush can tell us, and so this has

538
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 7: been a real challenge for round DeSantis. But you know,

539
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 7: he made his own bed. This is a guy who's

540
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 7: talking about putting prisons next to Disney. You know, this

541
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 7: was not a forced you know, this is a this

542
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 7: he's not a forced era. He's doing it to himself.

543
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 7: So you know, it's it's astonishing to me that when

544
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 7: we look at somebody who won in a difficult state

545
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 7: by nineteen points, he is very bad at this so far.

546
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 7: So we you know, we you know, granted, Barack Obama

547
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 7: had his own challenges when he came out in twenty

548
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 7: oh seven, and it took him a while, and there

549
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 7: is a learning curve and all of those things, but

550
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 7: he is being slammed by somebody who is very good

551
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 7: at this, and that's Donald Trump. And I'm looking at

552
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,959
Speaker 7: these polls. I haven't seen Donald Trump with less than

553
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 7: a double digit lead going back months now. In fact,

554
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 7: the NBC pull at fifteen is probably the smallest lead

555
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 7: he's had. The Harvard Harris the other day had him

556
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,959
Speaker 7: leading thirty five points. So it's an astonishing, you know

557
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 7: lead he's declared. DeSantis isn't. But DeSantis has to make

558
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 7: up some room here and do it quickly.

559
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 2: So, Lisa, you mentioned Chris Christie's campaign or I guess

560
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: black thereof even at that point he hadn't announced yet,

561
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 2: But he was never shy of call for calling out

562
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. He was never afraid to name him, to

563
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: go for the one liner and Ronda Santis is criticized

564
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: for not doing that. So what would be your your

565
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: new jersey and advice for the gentleman from Florida When

566
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: it comes to getting into a street fight with Donald Trump, it's.

567
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 8: Time to take a punch. Really, maybe he doesn't have

568
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 8: it in him. And if he doesn't have it in him,

569
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 8: then he's not going to be the candidate. I mean,

570
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,479
Speaker 8: that's where my head is, Joe, I mean, Chris Christie,

571
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 8: you know, he he paved the way for the Donald

572
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 8: Trumps of the world. And that's what I've said. You've

573
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 8: heard me say it before he was he was Donald

574
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 8: Trump before there was a Trump. He was authentic, he

575
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 8: was breaking the mold. He was saying what he was saying,

576
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 8: and it really did pave the way for Donald Trump's candidacy,

577
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 8: much to probably Chris Christie's chagrin. But if you're a

578
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 8: governor DeSantis, it's time to it's time to make a

579
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 8: decision about what you're going to do, whether or not

580
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 8: it's at the end of this trip or otherwise. He

581
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 8: needs to figure out if he's getting in the race.

582
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 8: It's time for him to throw a punch.

583
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 2: Throw a punch, says Lisa Camusa Miller. The headline I

584
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 2: started with, your genie is pretty remarkable, though, seventy percent

585
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 2: of them, here's your big picture. At least in this

586
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: NBC poll, and it's consistent with others, seventy percent of Americans,

587
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: including more than half of Democrats, still believe Joe Biden

588
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: should not run for reelection. Sixty percent of Americans, including

589
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: a third of Republicans, feel the same way about Donald Trump.

590
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 3: But this is the race, isn't it.

591
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 7: This is the race, and it's probably the race we're

592
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 7: going to see. I have to say, Lisa is a

593
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 7: Jersey girl. He should listen to Lisa. She's tough, she

594
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 7: knows what she's saying. She could teach him how to

595
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 7: take some punches. But you know, you're absolutely right. People

596
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 7: don't want they don't really want Joe Biden to run.

597
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 7: Age is a huge concern. We saw the New York

598
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 7: Times editorial over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal. Joe

599
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 7: Biden is going to have to address these things. But

600
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 7: in my mind, this is why Joe Biden and Donald

601
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 7: Trump cannot quit each other. They both want to go

602
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 7: up about this again. And for Joe Biden, if there

603
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 7: is no Donald Trump. I don't think he is going

604
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 7: to have a can odacy, So that's what they are.

605
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 7: I think both hoping for a repeat, and the rest

606
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 7: of us would like to run away from it.

607
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 3: God knows.

608
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: Yes, Lisa, Joe Biden and Donald Trump need each other.

609
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: Is there a lane for someone else here? We only

610
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 2: have thirty seconds.

611
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 8: I mean, I think that's what the polls are showing us,

612
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 8: that they're everybody's desperate for someone other than these two.

613
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 8: But I think Genie's right, I mean they are tied together.

614
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

615
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 3: Wow.

616
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: Our panel back with some final thoughts. Next, Jennie Shanzano

617
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: and Lisa Camuso Miller with us on Bloomberg Radio. But

618
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: have you thought about Donald Trump's nephew? He goes just

619
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 2: as Trump's nephew. Maybe you know him as the mayor

620
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: of Magaville, The father of Maga Rapp has endorsed Donald Trump.

621
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 2: You didn't see this headline?

622
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 3: It's next.

623
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast.

624
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

625
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

626
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

627
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

628
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven.

629
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 2: So much talk about the campaign this hour. I still

630
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: have not mentioned Forgiato Blow, Trump's nephew.

631
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 3: You don't know.

632
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 2: Forgiatto Blow, he is the face of what's become known

633
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: as Maga rap. And by face, I mean face tattoos.

634
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: Vice News gave him the treatment in a recent profile.

635
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 9: Trump's bass Alma balls. Trump's got the hate, I got

636
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 9: the hate.

637
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 3: Trump had the girls.

638
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 9: I got the girls.

639
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 3: Trump's got the money.

640
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 9: I'm getting the money.

641
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 4: Right.

642
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 9: It's like Maga's groun bigger than Trump. And they say us,

643
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 9: this is a griff. But how can I griff something

644
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 9: I created?

645
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: Well that is a question. But he's gearing up for

646
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 2: another campaign. And yes, we can tell you today at

647
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio that for Giato Blow, whose Twitter handle is

648
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 2: Trump's nephew, has endorsed his uncle once again, even held

649
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 2: an event of sorts with Roger Stone. It joined Forgiato

650
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: Real named Kurt Jans in front of Forgiato's custom painted

651
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,439
Speaker 2: rolls Royce that includes a picture of Richie Rich.

652
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 4: Oh.

653
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: Now this is where you're glad that this is radio

654
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: and not TV. Is Roger Stone wearing sunglasses, shirt and tie,

655
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 2: nice dress, slacks of nice crease, attempts to dance to

656
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 2: this handle Well Forgiato, lip sync's.

657
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: His own rap. Now, I was not an officionado of

658
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: Mago Rap before researching this piece.

659
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 2: I don't know if Genie or maybe Lisa were Genie Shanzano.

660
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 2: And you love for Trump's nephew, Well, Giato blow Joe.

661
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 7: He's got songs, no vaccine, not my president Rush Limbau,

662
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 7: impeach US Patriot Keys, So you know a lot I

663
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 7: know about Forgiato blow Joe. And the video Roger Stone

664
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 7: dancing is something I I wish I could unsee, but

665
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 7: it wasn't possible.

666
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: Lisa, we're out of time. But does this help Donald Trump?

667
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 2: Or is this like a casualty of Donald Trump?

668
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 8: I mean everything helps Trump Joe. I mean really, I

669
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 8: can't see anything that ever ends up being a handicapped

670
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 8: for him.

671
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 3: What does not kill him makes him stronger.

672
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 2: Lisa Camussa Miller and Gdi Shanzano are great panel as always,

673
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 2: thanks to both of you. Kaylee's on the way. Next

674
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 2: hour two starts right now.

675
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

676
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

677
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

678
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast.

679
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington along with Kaylee Lines. And

680
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 2: this apparently is the week Kaylee or so we hope

681
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 2: that we actually get the X date and we can

682
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 2: check that box and move on with our lives here

683
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 2: with the more informed conversation.

684
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 10: Well, I guess it's move on with our lives to

685
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:01,439
Speaker 10: what more drama about more default by the X state,

686
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 10: Because of course, this also is the week that in theory,

687
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 10: should Speaker McCarthy get his way, he will bring his

688
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 10: bill to the floor of the House and get the

689
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 10: two hundred and eighteen votes. Needs to really have an

690
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 10: opening solvo with the White House and get President Biden

691
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 10: to the negotiating table on some kind of agreement on

692
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 10: raising the debt ceiling. But of course the White House

693
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 10: has held pretty firm on that. So even once we

694
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 10: get the X state, the question is are we any closer? Yeah, well,

695
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 10: you know, finding.

696
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 2: A solved pretty sure it was Jack Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government,

697
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 2: who said last week told us last week that once

698
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: they arrive at the date, once we figure that out,

699
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: it may already be too late to avoid what could

700
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 2: be coming here. Mick mulvaney must be wondering if we're

701
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 2: ever going to ask him about anything else. Former OMB director,

702
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 2: former US Special Envoy for Northern Ireland, of course, former

703
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 2: acting White House Chief of Staff, co founder of the

704
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 2: House Freedom Caucus. I could keep going all day here, Mick.

705
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:57,919
Speaker 2: You've got a heck of a business card, and welcome back,

706
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 2: as I know you're joining us from overseas, so thanks

707
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: for staying up late with us here. Do you believe

708
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 2: that Kevin McCarthy, who you know pretty well, would bring

709
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 2: this bill to the floor unless he knew he had

710
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 2: to eighteen?

711
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 11: Yeah, no, especially if it's this early. Joe, keep in

712
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 11: mind we talked about that date. I've always thought, I've

713
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 11: told you folks before, I think the date is in

714
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 11: July that when Janet Yelling came out months ago and

715
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 11: said it was.

716
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 9: In June, I didn't believe that.

717
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 11: Tough votes in Washington, DC get taken right before Christmas

718
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 11: and right before the August recess. So the date is

719
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 11: probably going to be July, and now that the receipts

720
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 11: are coming in, will probably get confirmation of that. So

721
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 11: he doesn't have to do it right now because we're

722
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 11: not bumping up against it. But if he's got the votes,

723
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 11: he's going to the floor.

724
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 9: I don't care what the bill looks like.

725
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 11: And at this point, the question is can Kevin pass

726
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 11: something with two hundred and eighteen because if he does, and.

727
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 9: If it comes to a vote, I think he will.

728
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 9: If he does, then it puts it squarely on Chuck

729
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,360
Speaker 9: Schumer's shoulders over in the Senate. And that's what the

730
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 9: House wants to do.

731
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 11: They want to be able to say, we've passed a bill,

732
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 11: now what do you want to do in this Senate?

733
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 11: The Senate will hammon haw as they always do, but

734
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 11: that's going to be the dynamic here.

735
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 9: Ken Kevin get to eighteen.

736
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 11: For anything and get it over to the Senate anytime

737
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 11: before July.

738
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 10: Well, I guess it will wait to see if that

739
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 10: July date is actually confirmed, because I've been reading a

740
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 10: lot of research from those on Wall Street who are

741
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 10: taking a look at those tax or seats from the

742
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 10: Treasury pointing out how much weaker they are relative to

743
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two levels and saying that date might be

744
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 10: a little bit sooner, which would just make it even

745
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 10: more go time for leadership in both chambers. Frankly, as

746
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 10: you point out, Mick, this will in theory go to

747
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 10: the Senate if McCarthy does have success in passing it.

748
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 10: But the Senate and the White House have been very

749
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 10: clear on where they stand on this. They do not

750
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 10: want to negotiate. Do you really think they're going to

751
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 10: blink first?

752
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's a great question. They almost have to write.

753
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 9: I mean, look, you've stopped to think about it.

754
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 11: Why do you have a law that says you have

755
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 11: to vote on raising the dead ceiling? If there isn't

756
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 11: some type of negotiation, if it's always just a blank

757
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 11: check or a rubber stamp, then there's no reason to

758
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 11: have a law at all that requires this. So I

759
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 11: think the Republicans, although they always get blamed for shutdowns

760
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 11: and spending issues and so forth, and of course it's

761
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 11: never been a defaults and never been blamed for that,

762
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 11: although folks are quick to try and blame them for

763
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 11: anticipatory defaults that if they do pass something that's reasonable,

764
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 11: then it does put squarely in the Democrats.

765
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 9: I think there's a chance here that Kevin can.

766
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 11: Move it over, move the hot potato over into somebody

767
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 11: else's hands.

768
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 10: But to your point on this not just being a

769
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 10: blanket increase, that doesn't need a sign off that there

770
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 10: is you know, by default room built in for negotiation.

771
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 10: We don't always see negotiations on this though. If we

772
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 10: look back at the administration you served under, this was

773
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 10: just raised multiple times without all of this. So how

774
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 10: can it be both?

775
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 9: And that's a great question.

776
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 11: Republicans come election time are going to have to They've

777
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 11: lost the moral high ground in many ways on spending.

778
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 11: There's no question they didn't do with as much as

779
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 11: we could have. We didn't do as much as we

780
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 11: could have when we control the House, in the Senate

781
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 11: of the White House, there's no question about that. But

782
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 11: that's not driving the debate right now. What's driving the

783
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 11: debate right now is whether or not what comes out

784
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 11: of the House is reasonable okay, and whether or not

785
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 11: the ordinary person would look at it and go, eh,

786
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 11: that kind of makes some sense. And you know, from

787
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 11: what I'm understanding, that package includes things like work requirements

788
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 11: for welfare payments. This is extraordinarily popular because most people

789
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 11: think you should probably try and do that, but you know,

790
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 11: try and.

791
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 9: Get a job before you get a government welfare check.

792
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 11: That's the type of thing that if the Republicans are

793
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 11: smart here, they can move that hot potato over to

794
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 11: the Democrats.

795
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 9: It's going to be hard for them to do.

796
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,240
Speaker 11: They've not done it successfully many many times in the past,

797
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,959
Speaker 11: but the opportunity does exist. If they can pass something

798
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 11: out of the House with two hundred and eighteen votes,

799
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 11: that doesn't look like it's a right wing nut job package.

800
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,720
Speaker 2: As someone who's been there, Mick, when you hear about

801
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: arguing over thirty versus twenty hours work requirement or which

802
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 2: components of the IRA do we want to target here,

803
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: does that sound like nibbling around the edges like Kevin

804
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 2: McCarthy is close to bringing the Caucus in on this.

805
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 9: That's exactly what it is.

806
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 11: There's some folks will say, look, I'll go twenty, I'll

807
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 11: go twenty five, I won't go thirty.

808
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 9: That's exactly what it is.

809
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 11: And that's a good sign for Kevin, by the way,

810
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 11: because it means he's close to the finish line. The

811
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 11: simple fact that you were hearing about a potential vote

812
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,760
Speaker 11: now in late April and not in May or June

813
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 11: means that he thinks he's close to having the votes

814
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 11: he needs.

815
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 10: How fragile do you think his position is as speaker

816
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 10: even if he does get the votes, If it is

817
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 10: this difficult, what is that kind of signal about his leadership?

818
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 9: Well, the first signal is good because nobody thought.

819
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 11: A lot of folks thought he couldn't get two hundred

820
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 11: eighteen votes anyway to pass the deal. They thought he

821
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 11: had given too much to the hardcore right wing to

822
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 11: get elected a speaker in the first place, that he

823
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 11: could never cobble together to eighteen, that there was too

824
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 11: much division in the party itself. So the simple fact

825
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 11: he can pass anything helps him. But your point is

826
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,280
Speaker 11: a good one when it comes to the next round,

827
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,439
Speaker 11: when you when you sort of play the chess match

828
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 11: out and say, Okay, the House passes something, the Senate's

829
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 11: going to have to pass something that's bipartisans it's a

830
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 11: sixty vote requirement in the Senate, which means it's going

831
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 11: to have to have bipartisan support.

832
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 9: What does the vote look like then in.

833
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 11: The House on that on the next move of the

834
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 11: chess pieces that I think speaks more to whether or

835
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 11: not Kevin's what Kevin's leadership will look like going forward

836
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 11: than this first vote.

837
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 2: So when we do get an next date, mech whether

838
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,479
Speaker 2: it's June or July, and I realize those are two

839
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 2: very different things. Here, does it light the fire for

840
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 2: the White House? They see Kevin McCarthy passes a bill

841
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 2: and we get an next date. Suddenly there's a meeting

842
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 2: on the calendar.

843
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,880
Speaker 9: H No, I really don't. I think it goes to

844
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 9: the Senate.

845
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 11: And I may be in the minority on that, the

846
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 11: small minority on that, but I mean, face it, Chuck

847
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 11: Schumer wants to be involved, you know, Mitch McConnell wants

848
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 11: to be involved.

849
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 9: And the White House really they're not that active. The

850
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 9: President is not that popular.

851
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 11: He doesn't have a lot of political capital to play

852
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 11: with right now, and he's.

853
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 9: You know, he's not even taking live interviews anymore.

854
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 11: I understand he's going to announce by video that he's

855
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 11: running for reelection sometime this week. So the president, well,

856
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 11: he's still a president, there's no question about that. I

857
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 11: think that the energy is over in the Senate and

858
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 11: I'd be looking there first in terms of the negotiation

859
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 11: between McConnell and Schumer before I start looking to McCarthy

860
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 11: with Biden.

861
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 10: Well, I'm glad you raised the fact that the current

862
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 10: president is planning, we think, to soft launch his reelection

863
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 10: campaign for twenty twenty four. What do you make of

864
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 10: that timing, especially given the ongoing conversation around the debt

865
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 10: ceiling and potentially illuming default that we're having currently.

866
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's not the timing that gets my attention as

867
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 11: much as the method.

868
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:48,760
Speaker 9: I've been overseas.

869
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 11: I'm over here for the twenty fifth anniversary of the

870
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 11: Good Friday Accords, and I got asked a bunch of

871
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 11: questions by European process to why Biden didn't do a

872
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 11: press conference. And it's a really, really tough question to answer.

873
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:03,320
Speaker 11: The easiest press conference for a president to do is

874
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 11: of a bilateral international meeting because you get to pick

875
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,359
Speaker 11: who the journalists are and you almost get to pick

876
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 11: the questions.

877
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 9: And the fact that Biden didn't give that interview is

878
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 9: very telling.

879
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 11: And now we go forward and understand he's going to

880
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 11: give his announcement for re election for president via video

881
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,760
Speaker 11: that to me speaks a lot louder than the timing.

882
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 9: We can get into the timing and whether or not

883
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 9: the Democrats.

884
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 11: Were getting antsy, and whether or not he would do it,

885
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 11: whether or not somebody like Gavin Newsom or somebody else

886
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 11: was itching to sort of go if Biden didn't. But

887
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 11: I pay more attention to the method and not the calendar.

888
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 2: Isn't that what everyone does now? Though you drop a

889
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: video on Twitter? Even we had a Trump video in

890
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 2: anticipation of the speech, but that wasn't a news conference either,

891
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 2: was it.

892
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 9: H Well, maybe at least it was live. I mean,

893
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 9: at least he got up and gave a speech.

894
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,280
Speaker 3: Okay, so no, yeah, we're.

895
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 2: Looking at new data today. Make I'm sure you saw

896
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 2: this the latest from NBC News. And this is not

897
00:44:57,760 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 2: a huge sample. I do want to be careful with this.

898
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 2: I think as a margin of era beyond five points,

899
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 2: But it's consistent with the trends that we've seen, the

900
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 2: big picture trends. Seventy percent of Americans think Joe Biden

901
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 2: should not run for reelection. As soon as you finish growing,

902
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: you realize that sixty percent of Americans, including a third

903
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 2: of Republicans, do not think Donald Trump should run. Isn't

904
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 2: that just a wide open lane for someone.

905
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 11: Yeah, And I'm in the I'm in the wish there

906
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 11: was somebody other than Trump category. I mean that, I

907
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 11: guess it's it's by the way, it's more than a

908
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 11: third of Republicans. It's probably two thirds of Republicans if

909
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 11: you get right down to it. But I do think,

910
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 11: and maybe this is a longer discussion from the other day,

911
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,399
Speaker 11: you're looking at a historic opportunity that maybe we haven't

912
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 11: seen in forty years, possibly a century, where a truly

913
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 11: viable third party candidate could have a chance. I'm not

914
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 11: talking about a recycled politician from one of the other parties.

915
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 11: I'm talking or one of the existing parties. I'm talking

916
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:55,359
Speaker 11: about I don't know, a celebrity, a business person. This

917
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 11: It really is a unique circumstance where I think a

918
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 11: majority of Americans are looking hands over and going, eh, no,

919
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 11: thanks on these two.

920
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 9: What else have you got?

921
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 11: And ordinarily we don't have anything, But this year, you

922
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:07,839
Speaker 11: never can tell. It's going to be a very very

923
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 11: interesting next eighteen months.

924
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: God knows it.

925
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 7: Well.

926
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 10: I'm wondering who if you think there is a third

927
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 10: party candidate that could potentially be in there somewhere. Is

928
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 10: there any specific names that you have in mind, like,

929
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 10: are you hearing any rumors?

930
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 9: No? No rumors.

931
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:26,959
Speaker 11: The one name I always throw out there and people

932
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 11: are sort of raising eyebrown, giggle a little bit, and

933
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 11: then they think to themselves, Wow, that that actually makes

934
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 11: a lot more sense than I realize. It's Dwayne the

935
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 11: Rock Johnson.

936
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 9: But I understand he's not interested in body, so yeah, there.

937
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:39,439
Speaker 11: You goes see Joe even sort of giggles as well,

938
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 11: but he can make it back.

939
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 2: I know, I totally I'm behind you on that one.

940
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 2: This is the world that we're in right now. If

941
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 2: you're gonna if you're gonna out celeb Donald Trump, then

942
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 2: that's a way to go, as opposed to out bullying.

943
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 3: Him or whatever.

944
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 2: I guess, And I know that you're no stranger to

945
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 2: all of this. Micky even turned his fire on you

946
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 2: on truth or whatever recent I mean, it's just I

947
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 2: don't know what inspired that, but it does make you

948
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 2: wonder what is in his mind when he picks up

949
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 2: his phone. I'm sure you've thought that before.

950
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have.

951
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 9: I've stopped guessing at that a long time ago.

952
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 11: I don't think you know, he did give a speech

953
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 11: I guess over the weekend and he said that he

954
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 11: was going off off the teleprompter, you know, and Donald

955
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 11: Trump's done that forever.

956
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,240
Speaker 9: He's he's always best when he's winging it as opposed

957
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 9: to reading a teleprompter.

958
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 11: But the simple fact he said he was going off

959
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 11: the teleprompter tells me something. I've never heard those words

960
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 11: out of his mouth, by the way, that he realizes

961
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 11: that his rollout was flat, and that his speech after

962
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 11: his indictment was flat, and he knows he's not hitting

963
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 11: on all eight cylinders yet. So it's an admission of

964
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,279
Speaker 11: weakness that of course he would never admit to that

965
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 11: admission of weakness, but to those of us who know him,

966
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 11: that to simply say he was going off with the

967
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 11: teleprompter is in itself saying he's got to do something

968
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:53,760
Speaker 11: different going forward.

969
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,280
Speaker 9: So it's a very very interesting development.

970
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 10: Well, as we talk about Trump off teleprompt he also

971
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 10: did a recent long sit down interview with one Tucker Carlson,

972
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 10: who we learned today is departing Fox News. The Fox

973
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,479
Speaker 10: and Tucker Carlson agreeing to part ways. We don't really

974
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 10: know why, but of course the audience of Tucker Carlson tonight,

975
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:20,240
Speaker 10: we know is highly engaged three point three million viewers

976
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,360
Speaker 10: it averaged in twenty twenty two. He's seen as you know,

977
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 10: a real conservative commentator that has a lot of influence

978
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 10: within this basemic. I mean, what do you think the

979
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 10: impact is of Tucker Carlson being there?

980
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 11: I mean, I'm overseas in the Tucker Carlson story, along

981
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 11: with a Don Lemon story at CNN are making news

982
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 11: as well. So it's been just it's sort of a

983
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 11: huge earthquake within the cable news network when those two

984
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,919
Speaker 11: folks are off of the air suddenly. I can't help

985
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 11: but ask. I don't know Tucker well, but I can't

986
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 11: help but wonder whether or not he would love to

987
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 11: have that interview of Donald Trump over again that he

988
00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 11: did last week that was full of saft ball questions

989
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 11: and Trump talking for you know, forty minutes or so.

990
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 11: Now that that Tucker's gone. So but I have no

991
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 11: idea what's going on in the world cable news. That's

992
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 11: not my specialty. All I know is that, you know, Trump,

993
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 11: if he doesn't have Fox in his pocket like he

994
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 11: did in twenty sixteen, In twenty twenty is going to

995
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 11: have to find another way to get his message out

996
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:19,720
Speaker 11: for free.

997
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

998
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 3: Wow, Well, I'll tell you what, Mick.

999
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 2: You know more cable news bookers and producers than most

1000
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 2: Americans ever will.

1001
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,879
Speaker 3: Did these two networks coordinate? How do you get these

1002
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 3: both of the same day?

1003
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 9: No, No, I don't think so. I have no idea.

1004
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 11: I do know some folks at CNN, I know some

1005
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 11: folks at Fox, And I think everybody I've talked to

1006
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,160
Speaker 11: in the last hour or so is just as surprised

1007
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 11: as you are. So now, listen, politics is in a

1008
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 11: strange place right now in the United States of America

1009
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 11: in twenty twenty three, and cable news.

1010
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 9: Is inextricably entwined with that that craziness.

1011
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:57,439
Speaker 2: It all happened before the geek problem this week, Mike,

1012
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 2: every I'll get get all your stuff out before the right.

1013
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 9: I'm sorry, I don't know what the geek prom is.

1014
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 2: Oh jeez, come on, we're gonna miss you at the

1015
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 2: correspondence dinner nerd prom. There's only one real prom here

1016
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: in washer Mick, thank you. Get home safe, Mick mulvaney

1017
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,839
Speaker 2: with us from overseas. You're going to the prom, right,

1018
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 2: I am. Yeah, that's the nerd prom Everyone will be

1019
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 2: looking at photos of it Sunday morning. Joe, Matthew, Kaylee Lyons. Yes,

1020
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,879
Speaker 2: that's the real name for it. This is Bloomberg. You're

1021
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program

1022
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:34,760
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern.

1023
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 1: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com,

1024
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,800
Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live

1025
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

1026
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

1027
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 2: We both still have jobs, which I guess today is

1028
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 2: something that you have to state. Kayley, It's good to

1029
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 2: see you here at work today, his boy. I mean,

1030
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 2: they're just clearing out cable news.

1031
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 3: Who's next? I don't know. I'm afraid to ask.

1032
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean Tucker Carlson's out at Fox. Don Lemon's

1033
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 10: out at CNN. I do have to wonder, and you

1034
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 10: asked the question earlier, Joe, was this coordinated?

1035
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 9: Why?

1036
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 10: I mean, this is just the world's wildest coincidence that

1037
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 10: both of these were found the same.

1038
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,879
Speaker 2: Day, but even within hours before at least they got

1039
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 2: into the news cycle here. But pretty amazing that of course,

1040
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 2: the Fox move follows the settlement last week with Dominion.

1041
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 10: Seven and eighty seven million dollars.

1042
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 2: Remarkable and there boy, the stock is down again today

1043
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 2: on this. So the combined impact of the settlement and

1044
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 2: the loss will say or firing whatever it is at

1045
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson was it's been an expensive week for Ruper Murdoch.

1046
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:35,439
Speaker 7: Yeah.

1047
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:38,200
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, honestly, the market reaction to the news

1048
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 10: of Tucker Carlson's departure has in fact been even more

1049
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,800
Speaker 10: dramatic than it was to news of that Settlement's popular

1050
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 10: show on the Wet Dominion second most watch show in

1051
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 10: cable news last year. I mean, it just goes to

1052
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 10: show you what a money maker ultimately say what you

1053
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 10: want about what he actually said on the program, But

1054
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 10: he had a highly engaged audience and a lot of

1055
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 10: eyeballs on him, and that translates into dollars for network,

1056
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 10: you know, cable networks.

1057
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 2: Mick mulvaney mentioned earlier his interview with Donald Trump, but

1058
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: you brought it up first, But Mike seemed to think

1059
00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 2: that he might do that differently. Now that must have

1060
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 2: gotten a lot more criticism than I figured. It's I think, gosh,

1061
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 2: it's Tucker. That's what you get, right. But following the interview,

1062
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 2: that was a pretty easy, uh, sort of lay up

1063
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. There he is, is Tucker out on

1064
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:21,440
Speaker 2: the beach at mar A Lago, his hair blowing in

1065
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: the wind, and he effectively endorsed him in the campaign.

1066
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 2: Maybe that was part of the issue. I have no idea,

1067
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 2: but I suspect he'll find a home here. Don Lemon

1068
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 2: is a completely different circumstance. But boy, they dropped like

1069
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:35,920
Speaker 2: within an hour of each other.

1070
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 10: Today's As you can imagine, there were a lot of

1071
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 10: murmurs in the newsroom.

1072
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know what the heck is going on

1073
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 2: around here. Lincoln Mitchell is with us from the School

1074
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 2: of International and Public Affairs and the Political Science Shop

1075
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 2: at Columbia University. Writes a popular sub stack on politics

1076
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 2: and baseball. God love him called Cobitzing with Lincoln. We're

1077
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 2: going to commits right now with mister Mitchell.

1078
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 3: Lincoln, it's great to have you.

1079
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 2: We just spent some time with Mick well Vany talking

1080
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 2: about the debt ceiling, and we'd like to start with

1081
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 2: you there. Unless you want to weigh in, of course,

1082
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: on this whole cable news thing. Maybe you've got a

1083
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 2: new job at CNN. But it does seem like Speaker

1084
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy thinks he'll have the votes. If he doesn't

1085
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 2: have now, he will by Wednesday or Thursday when this

1086
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:18,879
Speaker 2: bill gets to the floor if they can pass this.

1087
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 2: How different does this whole debate feel?

1088
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 12: Well, subsequently, it doesn't feel very different because it's not

1089
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 12: getting out of the Senate and Biden is not going

1090
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 12: to sign this Republican deal. It is politically a victory

1091
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 12: for McCarthy because he can't pass it if he shows,

1092
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 12: if it shows he can't even heard of these cats

1093
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 12: that is the Republican Caucus on what is largely a

1094
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 12: symbolic issue because it's not going to be turned into law.

1095
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 12: He's in bad shape. He can he must go into

1096
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 12: any negotiation with the president, saying I have my caucacy

1097
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 12: to my mind.

1098
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,279
Speaker 10: Well, you say you think that he must go into

1099
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 10: negotiation with the president, but the President has repeatedly said

1100
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 10: he doesn't want to negotiate over this. He'll talk about

1101
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 10: the budget, but not the debt ceiling. Doesn't it just

1102
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 10: feel like two stubborn bulls and who moves first?

1103
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 12: I mean, my sense is ultimately, whe they're going to

1104
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 12: happen to negotiate about this, it does feel like too

1105
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 12: stubborn politicians. But you know, this is a really substably

1106
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 12: important issue, which is how are we going to pass

1107
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 12: a budget?

1108
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 1: Right?

1109
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 12: How do we as a major you know, national government

1110
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 12: pass a budget. One answer is you have a budget process,

1111
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 12: you sign that budget into law, there's some compromise, no

1112
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 12: one walks away completely happy, and that's that will usually

1113
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 12: do it. And the other is you revisit that with

1114
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 12: this debt ceiling, which just creates problems. If you don't

1115
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 12: like debt, which Republicans don't like when a Democrat is

1116
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:36,799
Speaker 12: in power, then address it in the budget process. It's

1117
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 12: a second bite at the apple. So you can understand this,

1118
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 12: that's a very bad precedent for any present times of

1119
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 12: divided government that you get to keep going back on this.

1120
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 12: So I think that's where Biden is coming from.

1121
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 2: Okay, with that said, there's still going to be this

1122
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 2: is going to end up in a deal. Lincoln and

1123
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 2: this was the new Republican majority in the House that

1124
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: said no more backroom deals. I know when people are

1125
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 2: getting tired of me say this, but it was regular

1126
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 2: order it was transparency. And now this will be done

1127
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 2: in a back room either way, whether it's favors one

1128
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:09,359
Speaker 2: end of Pennsylvania Avenue or the other.

1129
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 12: Right, I'm inclined to agree with you. But another word

1130
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:15,920
Speaker 12: for backroom deals and that context would be governing right

1131
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 12: the way we I mean, that's just how countries governed.

1132
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 12: You have to have the leadership of the legislature doesn't

1133
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 12: have to be one person, right, It doesn't have to

1134
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 12: be you know, in this case, Chuck you Umer, Kevin McCarthy,

1135
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:27,479
Speaker 12: Joe Biden walking through and come out with a deal.

1136
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 12: It could be five or six people from each each

1137
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 12: House of Congress, some other people's administration, but ultimately a

1138
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 12: small group has to make the deal. Now, how much

1139
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 12: of that has to be transparent? Well, the results are

1140
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 12: obviously transparent. But to say we're not going to make

1141
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 12: any deals is akin to saying we're not going to

1142
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 12: try to govern. And that has been a critique that

1143
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 12: many have attacked onto the Republican Party.

1144
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 2: Well, why have all these committees and all these guys

1145
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 2: walking around on Capitol Hill, We just need just a

1146
00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 2: couple of them to.

1147
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 3: Do that, right?

1148
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 12: Well, no, because that's not how the budget process works, right.

1149
00:55:57,640 --> 00:55:59,880
Speaker 12: The budget process is a long process with a lot

1150
00:55:59,920 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 12: of input, a lot of you know, the Appropriations Committee,

1151
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 12: the Agricable Committee hearing from it. Not they've been cut

1152
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:09,400
Speaker 12: out of this. This negotiation is a debt sealing, yes,

1153
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 12: because the debt ceilings. This is this is you know

1154
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 12: imagine you know, I mean, I don't like to make

1155
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 12: household analogies for governments. I think the very weak. But

1156
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 12: if you agree within your household that we're going to

1157
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 12: buy X thousand dollars worth of goods and we're going

1158
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:24,359
Speaker 12: to borrow you know, three thousand dollars to do it,

1159
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 12: you don't go back two weeks later and say, by

1160
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 12: the way, you know what, I've decided, I don't want

1161
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 12: to repay that three thousand dollars. Right. This is this

1162
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,720
Speaker 12: is different than the budget process. This is a formality.

1163
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,919
Speaker 12: There shouldn't be a debt ceiling. If you borrow the money,

1164
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 12: if you put in the budget, you should pay it.

1165
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 3: I do understand that.

1166
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 2: But Kaylee, Kevin McCarthy has said that we're not just

1167
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 2: talking about the debt ceiling.

1168
00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 3: We got to do both.

1169
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:44,360
Speaker 10: Yeah, that he wants spending cuts to come with this

1170
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 10: or no deal basically because.

1171
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 12: Because he wants this to be about crafting a budget,

1172
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,400
Speaker 12: he wants a second bite at the apple of crafting

1173
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 12: a budget, which looks from a strategic perspective, you could

1174
00:56:56,239 --> 00:57:00,080
Speaker 12: certainly understand why he's doing this right. He doesn't have

1175
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 12: a lot of votes, he didn't get the budget he wanted.

1176
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:03,959
Speaker 12: There's still people in his caucus he doesn't We're worried

1177
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 12: about him who he needs to secure. It's an opportunity

1178
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:08,400
Speaker 12: to do it. It's kind of a way in the

1179
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:10,360
Speaker 12: long runs, that's a very bad president, but it's not

1180
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 12: irrational on his part. But you can also understand Biden's position,

1181
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 12: which is we can't do it this way because this

1182
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 12: is not how functioning governments make budgets.

1183
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 10: I guess it becomes a question, Lincoln, of the strength

1184
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 10: of the positions through that both of them come to

1185
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 10: this with. Because we know that Speaker McCarthy had a

1186
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 10: very difficult time even becoming speaker, that maybe his leadership

1187
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 10: is a bit fragile. But also you have President Biden,

1188
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:38,600
Speaker 10: who we understand, we all expect, based on the reporting

1189
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 10: from multiple outlets, will be soft launching another presidential campaign

1190
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 10: this week, saying he wants to seek reelection in twenty

1191
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 10: twenty four, and I feel like, doesn't that change his

1192
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 10: positioning and his approach to this as well, because you

1193
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 10: don't want to be running for president with a default

1194
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 10: potentially hung with your name.

1195
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 12: Right Well, certainly, on the other hand, we should be realistic.

1196
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 12: President Biden is expected to make this announcement sometime this week.

1197
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 12: I've heard Tuesday effort Wednesday. We don't know for sure,

1198
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 12: but at least most of aut at least I've certainly

1199
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 12: been saying for a long time he was always gonna

1200
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 12: run for reelections, not like he woke up last week

1201
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,120
Speaker 12: and made a decision, right, This was always part of

1202
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 12: his calculus. His calculus here is that if this, if

1203
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 12: we have to if there is a problem here, if

1204
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 12: we have to shut down the government, there is a default.

1205
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 12: We're not going to default. But if we have to

1206
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 12: shut down the government or something like that, the Republicans

1207
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 12: will get blamed. They always do, right. Public opinion always

1208
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 12: goes against the Republicans at a time like this, not

1209
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 12: that he wants them, And he also says, if I

1210
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 12: can stand tough and secure these things, then on the substance,

1211
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 12: I've got the Republicans in a bad position.

1212
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 9: Now.

1213
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 12: The Republicans are rolling the dice here and saying, if

1214
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:40,560
Speaker 12: we can win this negotiation, we can show to the

1215
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:43,200
Speaker 12: President this week we can deliver something to our base.

1216
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 12: So they're both playing politics here, and both of them

1217
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 12: have look Biden, you know, at very best, I think

1218
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 12: we would all agree it's going to be a close

1219
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 12: reelection campaign for Biden. This is not Ronald Reagan going

1220
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 12: into nineteen eighty four, and McCarthy could lose his speakership

1221
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 12: at any minute. So for both of these guys holding

1222
00:58:57,480 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 12: onto their jobs as absolutely front center.

1223
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 2: So it's not they're not Felma and Louise in the

1224
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 2: car heading for the cliff right now. They're not going

1225
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 2: to hold hands and drive over this thing together.

1226
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 12: No, I might to mix metaphors here. They might be

1227
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 12: Selma and Louise playing chicken and driving the car into

1228
00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 12: each other.

1229
00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 2: Okay, well, if that said, and and someone needs to

1230
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 2: blink here, I think Kayley asked that a bit earlier.

1231
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 2: It's not going to be Joe Biden the week he's

1232
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 2: self launching or whatever we're calling his campaign here, right

1233
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 2: and Kevin McCarthy's going to stand strong based on what

1234
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 2: happens in the House, and so we lose another week,

1235
00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 2: and we're going to get an next date at some

1236
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 2: point here Lincoln, and there's not going to be a

1237
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 2: lot of time for fooling around.

1238
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 12: But there's also some there's some a little bit of

1239
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:37,919
Speaker 12: nuanced here. Right. On the one hand, Kevin McCarthy does

1240
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 12: have two hundred and eighteen votes for the for whatever

1241
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 12: deals he cuts, because the Democrats will support him if

1242
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 12: he chooses a little bit of compromise here, right, he

1243
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 12: also doesn't ness, I mean.

1244
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 2: There is wait, so you think he can pull a

1245
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 2: few Democrats in on this?

1246
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 3: Is that what you're saying?

1247
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 12: No, I think he could cut the deal that's always

1248
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 12: been open to any Republican is to get a lot

1249
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 12: of the Democrats and a handful of Republicans to get

1250
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 12: something more moderate.

1251
00:59:58,080 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 11: Right.

1252
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 12: This was this could have been the past to his

1253
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 12: speakership on the second ballot if he wanted it, right

1254
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:07,160
Speaker 12: the But but so that's so, it's not it's not

1255
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 12: quite that that simple. The other thing is that remember

1256
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 12: you know he has said but he's had to say it,

1257
01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 12: which is very telling. I have the two hundred and

1258
01:00:14,520 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 12: eighteen votes to pass my bill, can you imagine Nancy

1259
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 12: Pelosi back when she was speaker, having to go on

1260
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 12: tell didn't say I can deliver my pockets right, just

1261
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 12: that you have to say that is a sign of weakness.

1262
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:28,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, will he bring it to the floor without the

1263
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 2: votes or does he? Do you know that he's got

1264
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 2: to eighteen when he schedules it?

1265
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 12: Well, I think I was on your show, not your show,

1266
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 12: but your network at the end of last year talking

1267
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:38,560
Speaker 12: about the speakership bras and I said, there's no way

1268
01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 12: he goes to a vote without the with a vote

1269
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 12: without having.

1270
01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 9: The vote, and yes, yeah, we know how well, I

1271
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:44,880
Speaker 9: don't know that.

1272
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 12: Kevin McCarthy is you know, this isn't Mitch McConnell, who

1273
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 12: really knows how to count the votes. Where Nancy Pelosi

1274
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 12: really knows how the institution works. I think he's doing

1275
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 12: a little bit of the seat of the pants, which

1276
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 12: comunity goes to the floor. He probably has the two

1277
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 12: hundred and eighteen, but it's not money in the back

1278
01:00:57,000 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 12: to great.

1279
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 3: To talk to you, Lincoln Delphi is strang.

1280
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:04,720
Speaker 2: You'r Lincoln Mitchell back with us from Columbia University.

1281
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the sound on podcast.

1282
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1283
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:15,080
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1284
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:18,120
Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

1285
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:18,920
Speaker 2: pm Eastern

1286
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:22,120
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