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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go fifteen hondy, twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty and the kick

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Speaker 2: as block the college football world standers.

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Speaker 1: Good bye, Oh my goodness, he stumbled, and football the lateral.

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Speaker 2: Turn a canter on the inside, get you the lad

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Speaker 2: table up the field to night. It's not the sage

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Speaker 2: on the dog in the fighting, it's the sage of

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Speaker 2: the fight in the roll. What's up the generation? Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Ten college Football betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 2: Stucky in joining me as always partner in crime Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Ready to talk some Big ten, which should be the

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Speaker 2: Big fourteen and the next year should be the Big Team.

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Con?

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Speaker 3: I loved your tweet about how you know we have

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Speaker 3: the Pac nine, we have the Big sixteen. We got

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Speaker 3: we got eleven, We got odd numbers all over the place.

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Speaker 3: With Colorado making their departure, I think the big news

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Speaker 3: for this conference is that Oregon and Washington are interested

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Speaker 3: in joining. The Big ten kind of wants them, but

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Speaker 3: they don't really want to be a part of like

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Speaker 3: you know, who killed the Pac twelve, So that's going

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Speaker 3: to be a weird fit. I still think USC UCLA,

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Speaker 3: which is all the talk you know around college football,

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Speaker 3: joining is a big deal. But that doesn't apply to

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Speaker 3: this season. I think we should enjoy this season. We

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Speaker 3: still have our divisions. We don't know what they're going

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Speaker 3: to do with them after this year.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: I think there are definitely betting opportunities and this version

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Speaker 3: of the Big Ten. I can't wait to see if

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Speaker 3: they're done expanding after we get done with this season.

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Speaker 2: If you haven't listened, by the way, check out our

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Speaker 2: Colin I recorded if you're listening to this now our

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Speaker 2: ACC and we're also going through the Group of five

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Speaker 2: Colin or I will be on with Mike and Mike,

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Speaker 2: so check those episodes as well. But we just did

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Speaker 2: the ACC in the Pac twelve, and one of the

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Speaker 2: things I loved about those breaking in those conferences is

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Speaker 2: they got rid of divisions. That's not the case this

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Speaker 2: year with the Big Ten. It will be next year.

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Speaker 2: Divisions will go away once they add those two teams

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Speaker 2: from the West Coast and who knows who else, and

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Speaker 2: they will have but it's still the East and the

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Speaker 2: West this year. I hate it. I'm going to enjoy

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Speaker 2: the last year of it. But it's just so unfair

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Speaker 2: to some of the teams. I mean, if you look

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Speaker 2: at the future odds, like Maryland is sixty to one

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Speaker 2: to win the Big Ten and Wisconsin's sixty to one

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Speaker 2: to win the national title, or they're also five to

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Speaker 2: one to win the Big Ten. That's just the discrepancy

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Speaker 2: in the divisions. So let's start in the East, the

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Speaker 2: ultra competitive East, which Michigan has won and back to

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Speaker 2: back years. Michigan at BETEMG and every as always shop around.

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Speaker 2: All the numbers I'm going to reference here are at BETMGM,

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Speaker 2: the official sponsor of the Big Best on Campus podcast.

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Speaker 2: Michigan and Ohio State are both priced at plus one

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Speaker 2: eighty to win the Big Ten, Penn State plus five fifty.

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Speaker 2: I think you can find a six to one out

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Speaker 2: there as far as win totals are concerned. Michigan over

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Speaker 2: ten and a half minus one twenty, Ohio State over

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Speaker 2: ten and a half minus one oh five, Penn State

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Speaker 2: a little lower over half minus one forty five. The

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Speaker 2: interesting thing here is that Michigan will host Ohio State

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Speaker 2: which is why they are gonna should get a little

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Speaker 2: an edge on two teams that are most people are

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Speaker 2: gonna have. Wad it pretty similarly. When I look at

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Speaker 2: all three of these teams, we'll group them together and

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Speaker 2: then we'll get to the rest of the East. And

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Speaker 2: for what it's worth, Penn State will host Michigan and

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Speaker 2: go to Ohio State. There's a really good chance that

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Speaker 2: this ends in a three way tie. And if it does.

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Speaker 2: If it does so, if and I think that's actually

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Speaker 2: going to happen, I think Penn State's gonna beat Michigan, Hio,

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Speaker 2: Michigan's going to beat Ohio State, and Ohio State's gonna

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Speaker 2: beat Penn State at home. If that does, and they

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Speaker 2: don't lose any other games, it will go down to

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Speaker 2: the fifth tiebreaker, which is non division opponents and their records.

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Speaker 2: And Penn State could actually be the odd man out

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Speaker 2: because they played Northwestern and Michigan and Ohio State don't,

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Speaker 2: so Penn State. You would look at the upon their

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Speaker 2: opponents from the West, Michigan Ohio State both were doing

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Speaker 2: in Minnesota. The difference is Michigan plays Nebraska, Ohio State

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Speaker 2: plays Wisconsin. So Ohio State's actually in better position than

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Speaker 2: Michigan because you assume that Wiscons's gonna finish with a

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Speaker 2: better record than Nebraska. That's the only difference. Penn State

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Speaker 2: has a drastically different opponent group. They have Iowa, who

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Speaker 2: could win a number of games. They have Illinois, so

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Speaker 2: there's are decent and then you have Northwestern who could

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Speaker 2: just have a DISASTERUS year. And then if that was

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Speaker 2: the case, most likely Ohio State would go. So if

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Speaker 2: you're looking at futures, keep that in mind. If that's

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Speaker 2: how it plays out, and everyone holds serve at home.

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Speaker 2: But before we get into all that, when I look

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Speaker 2: at these teams pretty similar. When I look at them

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Speaker 2: as in that Michigan's defense, Look, they lost some guys

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Speaker 2: into the defensive line. I do have questions about one

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Speaker 2: corner spot. But the defense should be really good. Their

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Speaker 2: offensive line is going to be great, Their running game

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Speaker 2: is going to be elite. Do have some question I

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Speaker 2: still have some question on McCarthy. The receivers are are good,

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Speaker 2: but not you know, at least something to be desired

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Speaker 2: for a team that wants to win a national title

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Speaker 2: Ohio State. I also have confidence in that defense this year.

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Speaker 2: Jim mainly Jim Knowles bump right year two of his scheme.

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Speaker 2: Do have some questions in the secondary, but I do.

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Speaker 2: I do trust their defense. But while their skill positions

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Speaker 2: are fine, I'm like, like, I'm not worried about their receivers.

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Speaker 2: I have the best receivers in the country. Do you

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Speaker 2: have a little bit of question about their own line

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Speaker 2: and quarterback? They're definitely a step back at the quarterback position.

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Speaker 2: Penn State. I know they lost Joey Porter Junior at corner,

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Speaker 2: so question at the corner. But I really like their

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Speaker 2: defense this year again another all three of these defensive

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Speaker 2: coordinators I trust, I trust the units, and then you

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Speaker 2: have Drew Aller offensive line some questions, and then the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver room. We're gonna see it'scause they got to

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Speaker 2: prove it great running back room. So like, they all

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Speaker 2: have similar questions for me on offense, on offense, and

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Speaker 2: I trust their defenses. So what it comes down to

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Speaker 2: to me is that when I look at it from

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Speaker 2: you know, a futures perspective, Michigan last State might come

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Speaker 2: down to the last game for the win total. I

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Speaker 2: haven't priced. Similarly, I don't really see any value on

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Speaker 2: either team but Penn State, I don't want to take

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Speaker 2: them to win the Big Ten because they might lose

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Speaker 2: out on this tie breaker.

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Speaker 1: I have a future.

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Speaker 2: I know.

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Speaker 3: I've already made the bet. I can't wait to see

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Speaker 3: if you've got the same thing. We haven't compared to

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Speaker 3: the No, not at all.

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Speaker 2: Well, I haven't made a bet yet, so I was

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Speaker 2: gonna get your opinion on this, But if so, my

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Speaker 2: thoughts on Penn Stations. I really trust the defense, and

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Speaker 2: if Drew Aller hits and lives up to his potential,

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Speaker 2: you know, you could talk Heisman for him and or

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Speaker 2: Penn State playoff national title futures. I think that's the

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Speaker 2: play other than going in the Big Ten, because there

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Speaker 2: also is a path where Penn State doesn't make the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten title game and still gets in the College

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Speaker 2: Will Pluck. We saw that last year happened with two

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Speaker 2: Big Ten teams, so and I think I want that

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Speaker 2: high variance with a quarterback as talented as Aller are

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Speaker 2: stipposed to prove it. And there's the chance at Penn State,

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Speaker 2: you know, has the same record High State michig don't

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Speaker 2: get in the Big Ten title give, but it still

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Speaker 2: gets in the College Will playoff, which they have not

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Speaker 2: done yet, but this is the last chance we'll have

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Speaker 2: before it expands. So I'm looking at similar questions with

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Speaker 2: all these teams. I'm looking at Penn State futures in

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Speaker 2: one of those two realms.

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Speaker 3: I mean, listen podcasts, Nation Say and I have not talked,

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Speaker 3: we have not compared notes, and I have been very

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Speaker 3: very mum on what my future is going to be here.

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Speaker 3: And I've maybe told three people in my inner circle

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Speaker 3: what I'm buying, and I've actually laid a dime, and

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna like more dimes.

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Speaker 1: I have better numbers. So let's at age.

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Speaker 2: I really have no idea.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you're going down.

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Speaker 3: The same thinking path, the same ideology that I had.

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Speaker 3: And let me go through Michigan first, because I'm looking

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Speaker 3: for cracks between the three, right, Obviously, if I can

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Speaker 3: find an Avenue four crack, that's going to discount them

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Speaker 3: in the futures market. Okay, So when I start with Michigan, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Blake Korum is coming back from running back. The offense

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Speaker 3: is going to be called by Sean Moore. It's not

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Speaker 3: a co situation. He's the one that's going to call it.

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Speaker 3: So you can expect more eleven inside zone, gap schemes,

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Speaker 3: lots of running from uh you know, he's the offensive

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Speaker 3: line coach. And then on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: I have nothing negative to say about Jesse Minter, you know.

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Speaker 3: I mean he has been able to pick up Mike McDonald,

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Speaker 3: this whole defensive shift that they've had in the four

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Speaker 3: to two, five to cover one, cover three, heavy blitz,

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Speaker 3: heavy success rate and creating pressure. You're right, there are

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Speaker 3: some new faces here, but defensive tackle Chris Jenkins is

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Speaker 3: still linebacker Junior Colson is there.

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Speaker 1: And then you get to Harbaugh, who's going to be

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Speaker 1: suspended for four games?

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Speaker 2: Boat on Jim, don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers, avoid

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Speaker 2: it like the plague. Let's check in with bodog Jim.

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Speaker 2: Bodog Jim might be suspended. I don't know if it's

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Speaker 2: an announced four games. Cheaters. Don't associate with them, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: don't talk to them, don't associate with them.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, sorry, Bodog Jim getting caught cheating. Wow, that's

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Speaker 3: a statement. So you know, I go down this path

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Speaker 3: with him and where the wrinkles at. Okay, Well, first off,

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Speaker 3: Searan Moore is completely in charge of the offense.

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Speaker 1: That's a change. I'm not saying it's a negative. I'm

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Speaker 1: saying it's a change.

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Speaker 3: Jim harbat not being there to me is twenty eighteen

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Speaker 3: Ohio State all over again. We docked the Buckeyes two

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Speaker 3: points back in twenty eighteen because of Urban Meyer being

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Speaker 3: suspended for the first three games. It didn't come into

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Speaker 3: play in their first two games, those two points of

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Speaker 3: power ready, but it came into play in game three

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Speaker 3: against TCU. TCUHO covered that game by half point, one point,

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Speaker 3: whatever number you got, And that's how narrow it is now.

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Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh doesn't call plays on either side of the ball.

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Speaker 1: He has in a while.

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Speaker 3: He may make a decision on fourth downs. He has

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Speaker 3: really trusted his coordinator. So I don't think it's that

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Speaker 3: big of a drop. You know, the offensive line is

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Speaker 3: being supplied by Stanford. You know some portal players are

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Speaker 3: coming in to fill in that offensive line. Great West,

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Speaker 3: draw Perdue, Minny, Nebraska. I don't have a lot. I

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Speaker 3: think the one negative thing I could say about Michigan

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Speaker 3: is we've seen their ceiling.

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Speaker 1: They can't win the national title.

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Speaker 3: They can make the college football playoff when Ohio State stumbles,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's the best that they can do.

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Speaker 3: I think we've seen the best versions of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: You go to Ohio State, I have, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's I agree.

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Speaker 2: I think that's just the I just don't trust the upside,

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Speaker 2: like we've seen the upside of McCarthy and the passing game.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best wide receiver room in the world.

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Speaker 2: And I actually might bump Michigan with Harball out because

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Speaker 2: he hates scamblers. I'm just kidding.

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Speaker 3: Bick ahead, and then you move over to Ohio State,

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Speaker 3: and Ohio State stumbling is what has propelled Michigan up

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Speaker 3: to be a college football playoff team because forever it

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Speaker 3: was impossible to get to this point.

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Speaker 1: Now we have a new quarterback coming in, could be

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Speaker 1: some change there.

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Speaker 3: I mean, remember, we're looking for faults, cracks and you

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Speaker 3: know in the foundation to where maybe this team won't

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Speaker 3: make the College Roble playoff or win the Big Ten.

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Speaker 3: You get sixty five percent of your tackles and PBUs

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Speaker 3: are coming back, You're gonna have to replace some of those.

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Speaker 3: Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg is still there. On offense, you're just

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Speaker 3: as low as anyone. He's still the best, one of

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Speaker 3: the best wide receiver rooms in the nation. Trevon Henderson

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Speaker 3: is still there, you know, is Jim Knowles. I think

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Speaker 3: the big question there is Jim Knowle's going to run

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Speaker 3: cover zero against teams that are running play action pass, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean he burned all of us Buckeye backers so

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Speaker 3: bad last year by not switching out letting Johnson just

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Speaker 3: go down the field for six touchdowns. So you know,

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Speaker 3: I have questions at the quarterback position.

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Speaker 1: They do play no.

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Speaker 2: Line isn't just completely set in stone as it has

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Speaker 2: been in Ohio State two, So there's some question to

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Speaker 2: tackle for sure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, And Day is not a part of

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Speaker 3: the offense like Brian Hartline is now calling the whole offense.

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Speaker 1: Does that help? Does that hurt?

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Speaker 3: Like I said, I'm looking for cracks, I'm looking for wrinkles,

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Speaker 3: and Ohio State's got a lot. All right, There's a

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Speaker 3: lot for me to question here. And the secondary, by

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Speaker 3: the way, not projected to be a top three secondary

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Speaker 3: in the Big Ten. So if you're still going to

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Speaker 3: give up explosives, you know, if play action pass is

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Speaker 3: still burning you and you're running cover zero, could.

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Speaker 1: Still be a problem.

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Speaker 3: Now we get to the team that I can't stop

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Speaker 3: thinking about, and again I can't stop buying Bowman University chrome.

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Speaker 1: Cards of autographed Drew Hour. Drow Hour is huge.

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Speaker 3: You know, I kind of discount freshman seasons, especially when

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Speaker 3: your offensive coordinators Mike gear such. When my year such

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Speaker 3: took over at Penn State, we saw an immediate impact

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Speaker 3: on Sean Clifford. We saw less turnover worthy plays, we

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Speaker 3: saw more big time throws, we saw adjusted accuracies go

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Speaker 3: up and pressured pockets. The decision making was just better.

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Speaker 3: Now is that I think the jump for Hour, We're

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Speaker 3: not going to know. We don't really know what his

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Speaker 3: ceiling is, nor do we know what the ceiling is

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Speaker 3: on this Penn State team.

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Speaker 1: This is and I'd put money on it right now,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know how we great it.

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Speaker 3: This is the best defense in college football by far.

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Speaker 3: I think this team raced out to one hundred pbu's

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Speaker 3: last year, like by game seven. That's not going to change.

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Speaker 3: You know, you got you know, Kaylen King at cornerback,

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Speaker 3: Abdul Carter, Curtis Jackson and the linebackers both play excellent

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Speaker 3: pass coverage.

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Speaker 1: And then when you go to the offensive side of

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Speaker 1: the ball.

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Speaker 3: I saw Nick Singleton and the Rose Bowl, and I mean,

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's just he's unbelievable in space. You want

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Speaker 3: to talk about creating yards after contact, so you know,

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Speaker 3: and you also have one of the best offensive.

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Speaker 2: Much better, yeah, should have much better offensive line injury

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Speaker 2: left too. Now you have one of the best potential

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Speaker 2: top five pick a left tackle.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Olu Fashanu. I mean, one of the best offensive

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Speaker 3: tackles in college role, maybe the best. And then you

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Speaker 3: go to the one area where you know, Manny Diaz

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Speaker 3: was is a great coordinator. He's not a head coach.

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Speaker 3: He is a great coordinator, and he runs multiple packages,

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Speaker 3: cover three, high blitz. The coordinators are great. The talent

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Speaker 3: on defense is the best in the nation. The only

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Speaker 3: question mark is Drew Holler, and I worried about that.

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Speaker 3: Everybody beating themselves. And I'm glad that you did a

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Speaker 3: schedule deep dog because it doesn't favor Penn State. But

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Speaker 3: my bet that I've already thrown money on is Penn

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Speaker 3: State to make the college Playoff at plus four to forty.

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Speaker 3: Don't ask me how I hedge it, because I don't know.

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Speaker 3: But all I know is is they've got to win

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Speaker 3: one when it comes to Michigan and Ohio State, and

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Speaker 3: one of them they get a home and one of

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Speaker 3: them they go on the road. And they always play

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Speaker 3: Ohio State extremely tight. These games are extremely tight. And

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Speaker 3: here's the deal. If I don't make the College Football

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Speaker 3: Playoff with this bet on Penn State because of James Franklin, fine,

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Speaker 3: I lost because of the head coach. Maybe there's a

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Speaker 3: fourth down decision that screws us. I don't know, but

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Speaker 3: based on talent and stability and the fact that defense

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Speaker 3: wins ball games in this conference. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 3: want the big ten number, it's not good enough. But

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Speaker 3: to make the playoff at plus four forty, it's out there,

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Speaker 3: go get it. And if I can find a better number,

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Speaker 3: which I've been on the search for, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: take it again because I love this team and I

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Speaker 3: think they and there is a book out there offering

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Speaker 3: exact wins, and I've played.

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Speaker 1: A little bit of Penn State at eleven.

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Speaker 3: It's that might not be available to everybody, but I

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Speaker 3: see this as an eleven one team. I see them

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Speaker 3: right there in the fourth, fifth, sixth slot in the

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Speaker 3: very last college football playoff ranking, and I think that

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Speaker 3: this future has got legs.

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Speaker 2: Yep, love it. I'm going to step further out. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to take the I'm going to take the best

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Speaker 2: number out there, do some line shopping and wait waiting

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Speaker 2: on some of these from when the pottyats come out.

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Speaker 2: National title, national title, national title, national title. I'll i'll

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Speaker 2: tables a playoffs too with you. But I'm also going

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Speaker 2: to tabble the plot because my thinking is that if

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Speaker 2: they win the Big Ten outright, they probably had to

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Speaker 2: beat Ohio State and Michigan, Ohios at Michigan slept up

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Speaker 2: up elsewhere. That means like al really exceeded expectations in

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Speaker 2: this offense. Is finally, but if if win the Big

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Speaker 2: Ten or they get to the college to a playoff,

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Speaker 2: that means our exceeded or lived up to is you know,

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Speaker 2: lofty expectations. And that's really all they need with this defense.

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Speaker 2: And that means to me, with the landscape of college

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Speaker 2: football this year, that they're fully capable of winning the

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Speaker 2: national title. And I would love to have what a

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty to one in my pocket.

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Speaker 3: Something else about dual when I mentioned Mike Gears, such

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Speaker 3: cleaning up Sean Clifford. Drew Aller had seventy one dropbacks

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Speaker 3: last year, no interceptions, no turnover worthy plays in those

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Speaker 3: seventy one drop backs.

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Speaker 1: I can get behind this all day.

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Speaker 2: I think Penn State is finally back, right. It's like

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Speaker 2: that that ten years of kind of purgatory and fighting

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Speaker 2: to get back to where they are. Tell you one thing,

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Speaker 2: my dad is going to be very happy to listen

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Speaker 2: and listen to all our podcasts. And I've never given

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Speaker 2: Ben State love this much love on a national stage

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Speaker 2: or a future until this year. So I'll finally be

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Speaker 2: rooting for him. You agree, win total State about right, right, don't?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: The numbers are right, ten point nine ten, like they're

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Speaker 3: right there, juiced properly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had a guess, probably comes out of

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Speaker 2: that last game, which is probably going to be close to,

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Speaker 2: you know, within a field goal.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully it's a meaningless because our Penn States are advancing

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Speaker 3: into the Big Ten championship. Hopefully that's a meaningless game

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Speaker 3: other than win total.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be really interesting. Maybe we'll get some complete

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Speaker 2: chaos with these Big Ten divisional tie breakers in their

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Speaker 2: last year, which would be very fitting. But let's talk

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Speaker 2: the rest of the Big East. We have Maryland going

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Speaker 2: to list the odds to win the Big Ten Maryland

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Speaker 2: sixty to one, Michigan State one hundred and fifty to one,

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Speaker 2: Rutgers two hundred and one, Indiana two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: to one. You know, we'll start with Maryland at sixty

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Speaker 2: to one. Jason Football, that's what Maryland does. You know,

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Speaker 2: I've heard a lot of you know, people are really

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Speaker 2: high on this team. They bring back a quarterback. By

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Speaker 2: the way, in this conference, I don't you're my notes right?

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Speaker 2: The only three were the only returning quarterbacks out of

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Speaker 2: fourteen teams are Rutgers, Michigan, and Maryland. I think that's it.

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Speaker 3: Quarterback, Yeah, Maryland aso's experienced quarterback in the conference.

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, three out of fourteen. For what it's about,

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Speaker 2: those four new head coaches Nebraska, Northwestern, Perdue in Wisconsin

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Speaker 2: all in the West, seven new offensive coordinators, five new

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinators, eleven new quarterbacks and there's only one team

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Speaker 2: that has the same head coach offense, corner, defense, corner

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Speaker 2: a quarterback. That's Michigan that they have going for them.

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Speaker 2: A lot of new quarterbacks and then some rebuilding in

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Speaker 2: the West. We're going to stay in the East. With Maryland,

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Speaker 2: you know, they haven't experienced talented quarterback second year DC,

390
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Speaker 2: but they lost a lot on you know, in the trenches.

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Speaker 2: They always want talented wide receivers, but they did lose

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Speaker 2: a lot at receiver. Can they win like I should

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Speaker 2: mention their wgital over seven and a half plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: Can they win a game against a ranked team? Can

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Speaker 2: they beat a good team? They're three and twenty two

396
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Speaker 2: versus Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan in the Big Ten.

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Speaker 2: I have questions in the trenches. It's Josh Gaddis we

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Speaker 2: really trust him. They also lost their star kicker, which

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Speaker 2: could be important in close games. They do have an

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Speaker 2: easy non conference schedule to kind of build some momentum

401
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Speaker 2: with tals in Charlotte, Virginia that at Michigan State, then

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Speaker 2: home against Indiana probably be five and zero before going

403
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Speaker 2: to Ohio State. They do avoid Wisconsin and Iowa out

404
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Speaker 2: of the West as well. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: things to like about the Terps. What are your thoughts

406
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Speaker 2: There any value here either way on their win total

407
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Speaker 2: or taking a shot.

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Speaker 3: There is an over seven minus one thirty out there

409
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Speaker 3: would I would tell everybody that that is the play

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Speaker 3: I have partaken in that myself. This is one of

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Speaker 3: the best quarterbacks at least from an experienced perspective and

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Speaker 3: an explosive passing perspective in Talia Tago Bayola is.

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Speaker 1: Wide receiver Jashaun Jones.

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Speaker 3: You know they're going to have a very explosive offense

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Speaker 3: for at the quarterback and wide receiver position. I'm scared

416
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Speaker 3: of the offensive line. They returned fifty percent of their

417
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Speaker 3: snaps on the offensive line, the defense loses sixty percent

418
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Speaker 3: of their pressures. Not that it was that great anyways.

419
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Speaker 3: They only had one hundred and twentieth in pass rush

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Speaker 3: last year. But then you go when you look at

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Speaker 3: the schedule, like you mentioned Stuck, and if you look

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Speaker 3: at who they play from the West, Illinois at Nebraska,

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Speaker 3: we'll get to that. I'm not scared of that game

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Speaker 3: at Northwestern. We'll talk about them. That's not a tough

425
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Speaker 3: pull from the West. You didn't get Iowa, you didn't

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Speaker 3: get Wisconsin, right, and then when you look at the

427
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Speaker 3: non conference, you know taosand Charlotte, you know the Fighting

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Speaker 3: Biff Pogies.

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Speaker 1: You can't wait to get to that.

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Speaker 2: I tell people that I'm coming to Charlotte, I bet

431
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Speaker 2: ninety percent of the guys in football Land to say

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Speaker 2: that is a gold mine.

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Speaker 1: And then Virginia.

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00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a pretty soft schedule where the

435
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 3: biggest problem with Maryland is their havoc allowed. They finished

436
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: ninety third and havoc allowed, and then they lose half

437
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,679
Speaker 3: their offensive line snaps, So Tacko Baola is going to

438
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 3: be running for his life shooting guys thirty forty yards

439
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,479
Speaker 3: down the field, more explosive plays with whatever system Gatus

440
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 3: is trying to create, speed and space or whatever the

441
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 3: hell it is. So I have confidence that they can

442
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 3: outscore the non blue blood names on this roster. Look

443
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 3: at the Big ten travel schedule outside of Ohio State,

444
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 3: Michigan State not a problem, Nebraska not a problem, Northwestern

445
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 3: Rutgers not scared of any of this. So I'm going

446
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 3: over seven. I would rather have the seven, not that

447
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 3: seven and a half. I would pay the juice.

448
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 1: And because I project this like eight point two, so

449
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: over Maryland for me.

450
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. The one thing that I am worried about with

451
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 2: my pen state future, and maybe this is year America

452
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 2: can finally pull off one of these upsets of a

453
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: ranked team in the Big Ten is the spot for

454
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 2: Penn State. And if you have a Michigan if you're

455
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 2: a Michigan fan or have a Michigan future, you're probably

456
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: worried about that too. Another thing that kind of favors

457
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 2: Ohio State is Ohio State. They host Maryland and they

458
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: have a bye the week before, and then it's Purdue

459
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 2: the week after Michigan. You know, they go to Maryland

460
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: in between Penn State and Ohio State like trappy, whatever

461
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 2: term you want to use, sandwichee. We sure have a

462
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 2: lot of sandwiches. And then Penn State goes to Maryland

463
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: the week before they play Michigan. So Maryland gets to

464
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 2: host both of those teams. Like I mentioned, they also

465
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: avoid Wisconsin and Iowa. They really should start five to

466
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 2: oh and build a lot of momentum here. I mean,

467
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 2: I just I'm afraid to Backlan and gadis.

468
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 3: Essentially saying the road to the Big Ten championship runs

469
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 3: through College Park.

470
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 1: I think That's what I'm hearing you say.

471
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: It does. It does, so I'm sure Maryland will be

472
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 2: whole game with throw a pick six and not cover

473
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: at the end with a chance to win. No, I'm

474
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 2: not still bitter about that Spenn State. All right, let's

475
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 2: talk about the dregs of the eastport in the West,

476
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 2: Michigan State one hundred and fifty to one. They play

477
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 2: at Meda at Iowa, and they get nebrask at home

478
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 2: from the West. They're also at Indiana and at Rutgers.

479
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: Like that's horrendous. Like those are the two worst teams

480
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 2: in the East and you got to go on their

481
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 2: road for both. Michigan State, I mean they lost their defense.

482
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 2: I mean, you can't get any worse, but they lost

483
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 2: some talented pieces. You hope they get some better injury luck.

484
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 2: But they lost their you know, one receiver to the NFL.

485
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 2: They lose their quarterback and their top receiver after spring.

486
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 2: The three way competition, it's a mess. And based on

487
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 2: they're mel Tucker's history, he's not going to name a

488
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: starter until like a minute before kick. If you go

489
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: back to twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, Michigan State's a mess. Indiana,

490
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 2: I mean, they're all a mess. They bring back I

491
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 2: mean almost nothing. This is a complete rebuild. I don't

492
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 2: know where do you have them as far as returning production,

493
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: got to be way down there.

494
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, thirty offense fifty defense. So it's bad.

495
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean they lost their two best linebackers, although

496
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 2: they were hurt last year, but they lost their top

497
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: four corners on the depth chart. It's you know, the

498
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 2: offensive line finally has some experience, and you hope the

499
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 2: quarterback play gets better. And again another competition here, bottom

500
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: ten in returning experience. So they're a mess to Indiana

501
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 2: over three and a half minus one thirty for what

502
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 2: it's worth. And then you have Rutgers. They lost the

503
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 2: schedule lottery as well, along with Michigan State. Not only

504
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 2: is Rutgers in the brutal East, they drew Iowa and

505
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 2: Wisconsin from the west both away. They also get Wisconsin

506
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: and Michigan State off of buys. It's just I mean,

507
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: and their right week is before Ohio State. I mean,

508
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 2: how much is that really going to help you. It's

509
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: a really tough schedule. I'm gonna focus just on Rutgers.

510
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 2: I like the over it's over four and a half

511
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 2: minus one oh five. There's a new offensive coordinator in town.

512
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 2: It's like ten. The o help the d out at

513
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 2: all because I think the d is going to be

514
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: pretty solid, even more solid if they can ever get

515
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: any help. So but I look at the schedule, it's like,

516
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 2: all right, Northwestern, who's a mess. They really benefit from that.

517
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: They also benefit from the mess of Michigan State. But

518
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: Northwestern Temple and vaugh Tech at home to start at

519
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: Michigan's are lost and they're home against Wagner. I mean,

520
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 2: that's really really good shot to start four and one.

521
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: Then you just need one more win. It's like, you

522
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 2: host Michigan State, you go to Indiana. We just talked

523
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: about how much of a mess those teams are. You know,

524
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: you also host Maryland in the finale. Because the schedule

525
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: at the Michigan after Indiana, it's really tough with a

526
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: lot of state at Iowa a Penn state. So, you know,

527
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: I like the oc hire. I think the offense will

528
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 2: be a little bit better and more competent. They do

529
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: have a returning quarterback, which most of these teams are

530
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: the Big Ten. Don't expect a little step forward from Winsap.

531
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 2: The offensive line I think with a new offensive line

532
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 2: coach could be improved. I am worried about, you know,

533
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 2: losing their punter. Our guy which is like such a

534
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 2: weapon for them, But if their offense is a little better,

535
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 2: it wouldn't It's not going to be as important. And

536
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: I think it'll help the defense out, which is solid

537
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: and deep, and I think Rutgers is sneaky to get

538
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 2: to at least five wins. I show value in their

539
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 2: win total over but let me get your thoughts on

540
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 2: the dregs of the East between Rutgers, Indiana and Michigan State.

541
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,719
Speaker 3: Rutgers I had projected in three and a half as

542
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 3: a win total, so I can't really say I'm going

543
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 3: under because I do like the.

544
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: Direction that they're heading. Great quarterback coach.

545
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 3: The one hesitation I have there is Greg Sheianho fired

546
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 3: him in twenty.

547
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: Ten off his own staff, So yeah, that's.

548
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: Kind of interesting, But you know, it's a complete reset

549
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 3: of the offensive coaching staff. The defense is going to

550
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 3: be fine under Shanno Top twenty five and tackling and

551
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: passing downs defense. They don't like to allow a lot

552
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: of explosives. It's a manageable schedule. They were they were

553
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 3: terrible on offensively and third downs. If they get any

554
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 3: kind of regression to the mean of mid tier bad

555
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 3: teams in big ten.

556
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: Then they're gonna be able to win a few games

557
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: that they shouldn't.

558
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 3: So I'll let you run with that one. The one

559
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 3: that I'm on is the under on Michigan State. I

560
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 3: don't know what happened to mel Tucker after he signed

561
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 3: that huge contract because there's just not a lot of

562
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: not a lot of positivities that have happened since then.

563
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 2: The resume is on the tape. I'm a horseship football

564
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: coach right now. By the way, before you keep going,

565
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: this won't happened with a lot of our previews. But

566
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: we start off on the same page of Penn State.

567
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 2: And again we don't share notes because before any of

568
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 2: this or talk about any of this, because we just

569
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: find it more interesting for the audience and for the podcast.

570
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 2: But we have our three now, which we're gonna do

571
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: at the end of every conference preview, which is our

572
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: you know, a future week one take, and over and

573
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 2: under on the same page of Penn State. My I

574
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 2: just hinted one of the overs I like with Rutgers.

575
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: My under is Michigan State.

576
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 3: Well, I'll help you fill out those bullet points. I

577
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 3: mean Peyton Thorn departing after the spring game. Was he

578
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 3: really told after the spring game you're not going to

579
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 3: be the starter, or was the poached by Hugh Freeze

580
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 3: at Auburn. We don't know, But what I do know

581
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 3: is that Noah Kim's got like what fourteen passing attempts.

582
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 3: I mean, they're bringing back six percent experience there forty

583
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 3: two percent of your offensive lines. That's a mess on

584
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: defensive side, where Scotty Hazelton is supposed to be fantastic

585
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 3: as a defensive coordinator fell to one hundred and twenty

586
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 3: second in coverage grading.

587
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 1: You know that's I mean, Iowa's going to beat them.

588
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 3: They have Iowa from the West going to beat them.

589
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: You know, at the time they played Nebraska, come November,

590
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 3: Nebraska maybe ready to start winning some games in the

591
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 3: new system that we'll.

592
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: Talk about here in a little bit.

593
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 3: But you know, I can't get over can't control the

594
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: line of scrimmage on offense one hundred and fourth in

595
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 3: line yards, you don't have your offensive line. And on defense,

596
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 3: you can't stop explosive plays and you can't saw people from.

597
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 1: Passing on you. And that's a really bad combination in

598
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 1: this division. So I'm going to go under.

599
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 3: There's a minus one sixty five on five and a half,

600
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 3: I would rather do under five. Also, I know everybody

601
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 3: one of my first Game of the Years and articles

602
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 3: I wrote months ago was Washington, and I believe minus

603
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 3: six or minus seven I bought going to Michigan.

604
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 1: Say that number is ballooned out to twelve. I would

605
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 1: not be.

606
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 3: Surprised to see that creep up to fourteen. So if

607
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 3: you're still interested in that, I don't think there's a

608
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 3: lot of value, but there's still a little bit of

609
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 3: value on Washington up till about thirteen and a half

610
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,479
Speaker 3: in that Game of the Year against Michigan State, because

611
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 3: when I think Michael Pennix and Roma Duns and going

612
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 3: to Michigan State against his secondary all I can see

613
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,360
Speaker 3: is the Huskies up by forty at halftime.

614
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. But that's definitely my under

615
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 1: for the podcast.

616
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree with the under. If you want

617
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 2: to play Devil's advocate, you would say that the offensive line,

618
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 2: which has been a disaster, you know, they're bringing a

619
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 2: lot of experience back. I think all five that started

620
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: in the finale, you hope that it gets better. Also,

621
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 2: do you hope that the you know, turnover luck and

622
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: injury luck on the defensive side gets better, but I mean,

623
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: the defense is such a disaster, and you lose your

624
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: top two defensive backs from last year one to the NFL,

625
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: but it's hard to imagine they get worse. But yeah,

626
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 2: I completely agree that this is a mess. I just

627
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: don't believe in with the direction that this programs going

628
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 2: in any longer. And the transfers out after spring really

629
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: speak to that. And they have arguably one of the

630
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: five hardest schedules in the country. They you know, they

631
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 2: they're at Many and at Iowa and then gett Nebraska

632
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: out of the West. That's tough. Also Washington non conference,

633
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: and then you will as always, you get Michigan, Penn State,

634
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: Ohio State, and then as you mentioned, you get Nebraska

635
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 2: later in the year, which is a rebuild. You also

636
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: at Indiana later in the year, sandwich between Ohio State

637
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: and Penn State sandwiches. Indiana is a complete rebuild, and

638
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: that's later in the year in a bad spot. And

639
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 2: again that you were like, oh, Indiana should be one

640
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 2: of our wins. That's tough as well. You know, you're

641
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 2: at Rutgers in between Iowa and Michigan. So there's some

642
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: tough spots on the schedule and like where they're playing

643
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: the teams, and I just don't believe in anything that

644
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: is going on here. So yeah, I agree, I like

645
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 2: under five and I have to don't mind the under

646
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 2: five play as well. On Michigan State. Indiana is a

647
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: complete mess. But I think, I mean, just to quickly

648
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: touch on them, we'll see the Walt Bell Air at

649
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: oh what it can do. And but there's a lot

650
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 2: of transfers coming in to try and sixteen to try

651
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: and plug some of these holes on defense. So we'll

652
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: see if Indiana can surprise. I'm not betting under three

653
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 2: and a half. I mean, look, they have and by

654
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 2: the way, Michigan State only three home games in the

655
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: Big Ten because they play who do they play, they

656
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 2: play someone in Wrigley or know, they played Penn State

657
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: in Detroit, so that's not on campus. They only have

658
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 2: three true Big Ten home games. But Indiana, I mean

659
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 2: they do have Indiana State at home, accurate at home,

660
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: so like that should be your floor of two wins,

661
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 2: and then you know, you have Rutgers at home, Michigan

662
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: State at home, and then you maybe maybe they steal

663
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 2: one of their little bet you know, at Purdue in

664
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: the finale. So there's there's chances for Indiana to get

665
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: to four wins even if they have a really poor year.

666
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 2: I think the number is right there. Do you agree?

667
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: Yeah? I agree. I'm at three point two.

668
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: And the reason I'm taking the under three and a

669
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,479
Speaker 3: half that's juiced at plus one twenty five is that

670
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 3: Michigan State game is in such a bad spot for

671
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 3: the Spartans on November eighteenth, right, I mean, that is

672
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: such a trap game that Indiana can steal and that

673
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 3: could be the one that decides it. And I'm not

674
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 3: trying to sit around on that, you know, the weekend

675
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 3: before Thanksgiving hoping Michigan State wins a game, hoping you know,

676
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 3: they may be sit around a two or three wins,

677
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 3: hoping that they win the game to keep this going under.

678
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 3: You know, Indiana is gonna go with Walt Bell. You know,

679
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 3: we've I have not seen Walt Bell take over an

680
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 3: offense at Florida State or UMass or any of his

681
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 3: stops where the offense has improved where he left it

682
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 3: in a better spot. You know, even the quarterback battle

683
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 3: that you know, tav on Jackson Brendan sowersby I mean

684
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 3: it's it doesn't.

685
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: Matter are how are we at value above replacement level?

686
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 3: Where it's it's a tough roster to try to back

687
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 3: in this division. So I'm gonna lay off the under

688
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 3: because of that spot against Michigan State.

689
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 2: COO we go any further. As a reminder, Big Bets

690
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691
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693
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694
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696
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697
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698
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699
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700
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701
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702
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703
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704
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: four seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming,

705
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: or Virginia one eight hundred twenty seven zero seven to

706
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 2: one one seven for confidential help in Michigan one eight

707
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 2: hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey for West Virginia,

708
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 2: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. One hundred nine

709
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710
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 2: eight seven seven eight hope and Why, or text hope

711
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 2: and Why. In New York call it, text the Tennessee

712
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: Redline at twenty hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight

713
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 2: nine or call one eighty eight seven seven seven ninety

714
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 2: six ninety six in Mississippi. In Ontario, if you have

715
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,640
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716
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,200
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717
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718
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: Free charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and

719
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not available

720
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 2: in Nevada in New York. All right, as we want

721
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: to the West, where Wisconsin is the preseason favorite at

722
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: plus five point fifty to win the Big Ten I

723
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: think to win the division. We pull up the division

724
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 2: of the latest division odds at BETMGM. They are plus

725
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 2: one ten to win the West. Then you have Iowa,

726
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: who's ten to one to win the Big Ten, Minnesota

727
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 2: thirty to one, Illinois fifty to one, Nebraska sixty to one,

728
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 2: PERDU one hundred to one, and Rebel's beloved Northwestern Wildcats

729
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty one. This division is a mess.

730
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: I mean there are four new head coaches. There are

731
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 2: I believe seven new quarterbacks. Every team has a new

732
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 2: quarterback in this division. Double check my math. Yeah, every

733
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 2: team is a new quarterback in the division. There are

734
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 2: scheme changes across the board. There are gambling investigations in

735
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 2: the state of Iowa. There are hazing firings at Northwestern

736
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: Cats Cats, there are like some complete rebuilt Wisconsin's going

737
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 2: to run an array like what I would need to

738
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 2: average twenty five points per game for we have innepotism.

739
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 2: You and we got what he's going on.

740
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: We got contracts on Brian Farentz scoring certain points per game,

741
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: even those defense may cash that end for him more.

742
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 2: Oh else, Yeah, by the way, the yeah, he's got

743
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 2: a hope that what conspiracy theory ferrents frames the Iowa

744
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 2: punter for a gambling investigation so that they can't pin

745
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 2: team steep. Although that's how IOA scores a lot with

746
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 2: like safeties, maybe that's how they get the twenty five

747
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 2: points per game. But yeah, also minute Fleck is like

748
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,479
Speaker 2: under fire for hazing. Yep, people, I know everyone gets

749
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 2: canceled for everything, but like we're going back to twenty

750
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: eighteen for to and finding out that Fleck punished his

751
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: team with exercise. Like the people complaining about this tell

752
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 2: me you've never played sports without telling me you never

753
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,800
Speaker 2: played sports, Like that's what you do. We played football,

754
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 2: go run hills Like that's okay, we don't have to.

755
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 1: I ran, you played football.

756
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 2: I played. I ran.

757
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 3: You ran when you got in trouble, like if your

758
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 3: kicker missed a field goal, you had to run for

759
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 3: an extra thirty minutes.

760
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 2: You know, I mean you ran, that's what you do

761
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 2: and it also helps you get in shape. It's like

762
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 2: not just a purely punitive thing crazy. I mean, this

763
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 2: division is a complete just mess. Let's start high level

764
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: anything from a futurest perspective to win the division, any

765
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 2: value for the conference? Like is it worth taking a

766
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 2: shot with any of these teams because there's just so

767
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: much chaos, Like, say, wisconcept this identity change? Right? Yeah,

768
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 2: I like what they're doing. I like the higher but

769
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 2: it's like it's a lot of change. It's a completely

770
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 2: new offense. You know, you're bringing in a quarterback that

771
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: and it's a scheme that's just a complete one. Any

772
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: from what Wisconsin it's been doing. There's most likely going

773
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: to be some growing pains and this is a complete

774
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: identity shift for a team. Iowa, you know, should have

775
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 2: a great defense. Again, the special teams could be really special.

776
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: Once again McCarthy comes in at quarterback. We'll see if

777
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 2: he can give the offense some juice. Finally, the offensive line,

778
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 2: I will say for Iowas should be better. That's usually

779
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: a strength. There was a weakness last year, but they

780
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 2: were so young and that's one of the things you

781
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: can usually count on Kirk Freens to have great special

782
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 2: teams and develop offensive linemen, so that unit should improve,

783
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,760
Speaker 2: which should help the offense. And I think McCarthy definitely

784
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,879
Speaker 2: is an upgrade at quarterback. Illinois had a great year

785
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: last year, but that defense should take a step back.

786
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 2: I mean, you lose four guys now that are on

787
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 2: NFL rosters from that secondary. So we'll see if that

788
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: I think there are defense will take a step back,

789
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 2: their offense might take a step up. With Altmeyer quarterback Minnesota.

790
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 2: Meanwhile new quarterback the Greek Gunslinger. You know, they have

791
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 2: the lots of a place. I'm worried about their secondary

792
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: as well, and they're not able to generate pressure and

793
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: if they can't with some of their secondary losses, that

794
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: could be problematic. Nebraska complete rebuild, identity shift. You know

795
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: with Rule coming in, he's a turnaround artist, but what

796
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: has he done in the first year of his previous stops.

797
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 2: It's like one win, two win. It's all about the

798
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 2: culture change. But look it's a wide open division. Northwestern

799
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 2: a mess, complete disaster, quarterback battle, I mean, the hazing

800
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 2: Fitzgerald gone, They're gonna be really bad. And then Purdue

801
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 2: another coaching change, the team change, coach defensive quarter head coach.

802
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 2: And by the way, Illinois might miss Walters as well,

803
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 2: who goes to Purdue as the head coach. And Purdue

804
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 2: obviously uses two of their key pass catches to the NFL,

805
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 2: So makes some sense of the Big Ten West.

806
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 3: Well, when you have the talent that Wisconsin has, you

807
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 3: pencil them in to represent the West in the Big

808
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 3: Ten championship game. My hardburn comes with a unit of

809
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 3: offensive linemen that were hired, that were recruited to run

810
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 3: one kind of offense, which is plow massive holes for

811
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 3: brayln Allen, and now they're going to be asked to

812
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: swap in sixty to seventy percent rush rate for about

813
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 3: a forty nine percent rush rate and learn how to

814
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 3: pass block. So, in case you have been living under

815
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 3: a rock, Phil Longo has left North Carolina and he's

816
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 3: come to Wisconsin. If you know anything about Old Miss

817
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: and North Carolina, Phil Longo offenses.

818
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: He likes to run fast. Last year, Wisconsin one hundred

819
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: and twenty first in tempo. Longo has averaged between tenth

820
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: and twenty fifth fastest in the nation when running his

821
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: I mean there are years he's been top five and

822
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 1: so my question comes. How much gas do these guys

823
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: have in the first part of their schedule, you know,

824
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 1: are the pass blocking schemes and update to something that

825
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 1: they weren't recruited for and have never done before.

826
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 3: I still expect them in the run game to absolutely

827
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,240
Speaker 3: plow through everybody. And then the defense. I have actually

828
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,760
Speaker 3: a lot less worries about the defense with Mike Tressel

829
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 3: and DC Luke Fickle intew I mean seventy two percent

830
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: of their tackles and pressure's return, So I think that

831
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: is bankable. And then when you look at the East schedule,

832
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 3: Rutgers in Indiana completely manageable.

833
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 1: Right, you do have to play Ohio State. That's kind

834
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 1: of a notch.

835
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 3: I think if you were going to go against Wisconsin

836
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 3: in this division you would point to that. But I'm

837
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 3: telling this stuff from like a roster talent perspective. It's there,

838
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 3: does the schemes fit? And when I mentioned that, and

839
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: we talk about running and your conditioning, maybe conditioning catches

840
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 3: on to Wisconsin in the fourth quarter against Buffalo, Washington

841
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 3: State and Georgia Southern, and then maybe by the time

842
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 3: they run into purduerunning one hundred plays a game and

843
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 3: they have no problem running one hundred plays a game

844
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 3: that just wasn't Wisconsin football before. So I get a

845
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 3: little like I could see first half over is being

846
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,760
Speaker 3: played against Buffalo, first half over being played against Washington

847
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 3: State until they get their legs in them. But I

848
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: just can't buy a division future with this much change

849
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 3: going on in the background. And that stinks because this

850
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 3: is probably the most talented roster. So this will be

851
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: the biggest tempo change that you see.

852
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: I do like the over eight and a half. It

853
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 1: is juiced.

854
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 3: I project them nine point one, so I would look

855
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 3: that way with Wisconsin. I don't know what team we

856
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 3: want to dive into here, but you're right, Illinois is

857
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:35,760
Speaker 3: going to miss Walters. On the defensive side of the ball.

858
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 3: Brett Bieleman now has got to recover. You know, he's

859
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 3: I mean they finished outside the top one hundred and

860
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 3: offensive finishing drives. Barry Lenny comes in, boy quarterback I

861
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 3: used to go against in high school. Barry Lenny junior

862
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 3: comes in to run the offense. You're going to see

863
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 3: some inside zone and counter. You know, Altmeyer is he's

864
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 3: a head of paddock. After the spring game, this might

865
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 3: be the best defensive line in the Big ten. But

866
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 3: there are massive losses at running back in secondary, big

867
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 3: holes that are going to be tough to fill, especially

868
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 3: with the offense that they weren't a round with Barry

869
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 3: Money and the defense that you're gonna need if Wisconsin

870
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 3: decides they're gonna start airing it out on every play,

871
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 3: and you've got questions in the secondary.

872
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 2: And they they need to find a way to get

873
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 2: pressure becuse they could not do that at all last year.

874
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the trench, this isn't a Brett Beilam a

875
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 3: trench that were used to. We're used to that trench

876
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 3: being just you know, I mean, there was a game

877
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 3: where they man handled Penn State and they've they've given

878
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 3: Michigan problems in the past, but now this offensive line

879
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 3: and defensive line are not expected to be within the

880
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 3: top four of the entire conference. So I have problems

881
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 3: with them. I do make it seven point three. I'm

882
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 3: going to pass. I'm not going to take anything on

883
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 3: the over here, but I don't think Michigan, I'm sorry,

884
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 3: Illinois completely falls off the table, but they could. And

885
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 3: then we come to Iowa and man, what there's am

886
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 3: I reading this number correctly?

887
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 1: Out there?

888
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: Under eight plus one twenty five. I mean, how does

889
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 3: this Iowa team get to nine wins?

890
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:53,919
Speaker 1: It's really hard.

891
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 3: I mean between came McNamara's coming in from the portal

892
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: for Michigan. He's going to be under Brian Fenci's system.

893
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 3: But there's not going to be a change to the

894
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,720
Speaker 3: twelve and the inside zone the outside zone. The Iowa

895
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 3: offense is not going to change, even though they have

896
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 3: better players at the baby at the quarterback position they've

897
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 3: had in years, Like if seventy four percent of their

898
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 3: offensive line stamps back, special teams are not going to

899
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 3: die off whatsoever. The problem with them in the schedule.

900
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 3: They do have Penn State on the schedule, so you

901
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 3: know Wisconsin as Ohio state. Iowa has Penn State the

902
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 3: number one top coverage defense and all the nation last year.

903
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 3: Don't expect to drop off there. But on the offensive side,

904
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 3: they finished one hundred and thirtieth in pass blocking and

905
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 3: if Kve McNamara is going to make a difference, it's

906
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:35,400
Speaker 3: not going to be with a whole bunch of guys

907
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 3: on his back. So you know, I don't know, how

908
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 3: do you see I I mean, I don't know what

909
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 3: you have Iowa at I have them at seven wins.

910
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 3: This under eight juiced you know to the over. Really

911
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: I was gonna win nine games on this schedule.

912
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you can get I think a betemge

913
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: of there, you can get under eight and a half choosed.

914
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 2: I mean, what I will say with Iowa is like

915
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 2: you can always trust the defense is gonna be good.

916
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 2: And I do think their off it's gonna better. McCarthy's

917
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 2: better offensive line should be better. That in of itself

918
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 2: should help. And they look they're gonna steal a couple

919
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: of games if that's the case, because they're the best

920
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 2: punter in the country. Their special teams will be elite.

921
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 2: Like if you look at their schedule, like the two

922
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 2: teams that won the lottery, I would say Wisconsin definitely.

923
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 2: That's and I agree on Wisconsin the over. I do

924
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 2: have questions about, like the scheme fit, but it's over

925
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 2: nothing there for me from a number's perspective. They draw

926
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 2: you know, they host Ohio State and then they get

927
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 2: They're at Indiana and Rutgers from the east. That's a win.

928
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 2: They also host Iowa, that's huge. Iowa does go to

929
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 2: Penn State, but they get Rutgers in Michigan State at home.

930
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: From the East. They also avoid Michigan and Ohio State.

931
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: If you look at Iowa's schedule, it's what they have

932
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: a great home field advantage. If they take care of

933
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 2: business at home, they're gonna win eight games. There's their

934
00:43:54,920 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 2: home games Utah State, Western, Michigan, Michigan State, due Minnesota.

935
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 2: Northwestern is in Chicago. Who cares where that's played, Rutgers

936
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 2: in Illinois. That's that could be eight wins. And then

937
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 2: I was thinking about the under two just from a

938
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 2: numbers perspective, but that point in addition, now they do

939
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 2: go to Nebraska late in the finale, which is a

940
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 2: bad thing for them because Nebraska isn't rebuild, and then

941
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 2: it's the final game of the year. What really took

942
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 2: me off the Iowa under because I was looking that

943
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 2: way is in week two and a little revenge spot

944
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 2: they play at Iowa State and Iowa State. Who I

945
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: don't know. We're gonna talk, we're gonna be Big twelve next.

946
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 2: The rumors are one hundreds is off the team. Yep,

947
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 2: we will see who else. It doesn't sound good from

948
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 2: just we'll get to that in the Big twelve episode.

949
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,240
Speaker 2: So that at Iowa staate game and I was historically

950
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 2: owned that where they get that win and then they

951
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 2: just you know, they're with that home schedule because they're

952
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 2: probably they're gona lose that Penn State. We're gonna they're

953
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: gonna lose. We'll give them a loss at Wisconsin, but

954
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 2: the schedule is pretty manageable outside of that. So yeah,

955
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 2: that Iowa State factor, and then what happened with Northwestern.

956
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 2: I Wall really benefited from those two teams and the turmoil,

957
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 2: and you know that they're gonna just steal a game

958
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 2: or two. I'm not betting the over, was looking at

959
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 2: the under, but after deep diving, I'm staying away.

960
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 3: Let me ask you a question, then I'll pivot to Nebraska.

961
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 3: Are you ready for the first Collegeable Playoff ranking to

962
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 3: come out on Halloween and iowall be like seventh or

963
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 3: eighth and everybody talk about how they're undefeated. Are you

964
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: ready for that to hear about how they're a national

965
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 3: title contender?

966
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 2: No, that better happens. That means they don't have to

967
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: win at Penn State, Right, that better not happened. But

968
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 2: let's start listen to Nebraska.

969
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 3: Nebraska honestly, it's not for everyone.

970
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 2: Matt Rule the turnaround artist. Usually in previous spots that

971
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 2: he's been it's been a complete mess, right and not

972
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 2: saying Nebraska isn't, but it's much more dire relative to

973
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:04,359
Speaker 2: the rest of the division. Like, look, they're gonna it's

974
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 2: a complete change here. I mean, like you have a

975
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 2: brand new staff. You're gonna be it's gonna be like

976
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 2: an old school offense with like the full back or

977
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 2: established They want to be like old school Nebraska, which

978
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 2: I like. I think that this is something that Nebraska

979
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 2: can kind of hang their hat on as their identity.

980
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 2: I think the special teams can will be fixed this

981
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 2: year which has been a disaster, and Matt Rule is

982
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 2: good at the can really fix like a lot of

983
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,959
Speaker 2: the in game basic shit. So maybe they can start

984
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 2: to win the close games which they've been unable to do,

985
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,919
Speaker 2: just for a couple you know, just fixing a little

986
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 2: things in this division, which is chaotic and really gettable.

987
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 2: They have a fairly easy non con but it's just

988
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: like coin It's like you could see it going. I mean,

989
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 2: like Northern Illinois at home, they're at Colorado, and like

990
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 2: Colorado hype spot Louisiana Tech at home could be a win.

991
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 2: They do draw Michigan Ryland, Michigan State from the east,

992
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 2: they have to go to Minnesota and Wisconsin while they

993
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 2: host Iowa, but they're on the road. They also go

994
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 2: to Illinois. They're on the road for three of the

995
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 2: top four in the West. What do you see with

996
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:17,760
Speaker 2: rule in this Nebraska team over six and a half?

997
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 2: It is juice to the under seems a little aggressive

998
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 2: for this new regime. But maybe Jeff Simms, the mobile

999
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 2: quarterback from Georgia Tech, who looks like he will be

1000
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 2: under center, can have some juice here for ruling company.

1001
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:34,280
Speaker 2: What do you see with corn?

1002
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 3: I think it's extremely aggressive. I mean, not only did

1003
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: you get Jeff Sims from the portal, you went and

1004
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 3: got Billy Kemp at wide receiver from Virginia. So that

1005
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 3: is your one two punch that you're gonna have on

1006
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 3: the offense where the portal is trying to rebuild that

1007
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 3: side of the ball from Marcus Sadderfield, who likes to

1008
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 3: run a lot of RPO, a lot eleven ten inside zone,

1009
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 3: the Jeff Simms is going to be able to eat

1010
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 3: up there. You know, Marcus Saderfield previously was on staff.

1011
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 1: At Temple and Baylor.

1012
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 3: So he's going to fit what Matt Rule wants to do.

1013
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 3: On the defensive side of the ball, you're going to

1014
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 3: get Tony White. He had a thirty one perus.

1015
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, he had a thirty one percent blitz right at Syracuse.

1016
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 3: He can provide a pretty complicated coverage scheme and three

1017
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,680
Speaker 3: three five front to show some problems there.

1018
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: There are issues on both sides.

1019
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 3: Last year, you know Nebraska's one hundred and twenty eighth

1020
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:24,319
Speaker 3: then pass blocking that plays into Jeff Simms mobility. On

1021
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 3: the defensive side, they were one hundred and sixteenth and havoc.

1022
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 3: They just could not play behind the line of scrimmage

1023
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 3: or pick off a ball. So I project this at six,

1024
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 3: and so the number in the market is six with

1025
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 3: plus money to the under. I'm going off script, like usually,

1026
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 3: I'm so mathematical based in taking things. I will pass

1027
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 3: if the number is about the same. I'm taking the

1028
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 3: under here. First off, I don't see this schedule getting

1029
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 3: the seven wins. Second off, Matt Rule is three to

1030
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 3: twenty one in his first seasons at Temple and Baylor.

1031
00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 3: Why he is more about his program, his system, his structure,

1032
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 3: doesn't care about results in the first year, he never

1033
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 3: has doesn't care about results in the third year. He

1034
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 3: sells his ad on what his vision is, the way

1035
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 3: that he wants to go about it and establishing a culture.

1036
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 3: And he's not going to come in and say, well,

1037
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 3: this is the pieces I have on my roster, and

1038
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:18,879
Speaker 3: this is the offensive defense that I'm going to run.

1039
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 3: Matt Rules one the ones that doesn't do that. If

1040
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 3: they get to seven wins, I'd be amazed. So I'm

1041
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 3: taking the under just based alone. I can't see them

1042
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 3: winning seven at all. So at worst, I push if

1043
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 3: they make a bull I mean, Matt Rules should be

1044
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 3: for Coach of the Year if this team makes a Bowl.

1045
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,720
Speaker 3: But the fact that they are implementing all these schemes

1046
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 3: and they are not tailoring it to the players on staff,

1047
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:40,439
Speaker 3: I'm going under here.

1048
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:45,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, the what it's worth. I don't hate the under.

1049
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 2: You can also get under six and a half two

1050
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 2: just pretty heavy AGM. People always ask about, do I

1051
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: prefer like an under six or you know, under six

1052
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 2: plus money or under six and a half minus. Yeah,

1053
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 2: generally speaking, you're gonna be like sixty seventy cents for

1054
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 2: half win, but not all teams are created equal. It

1055
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 2: depends on the distribution of wins, and like is it

1056
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 2: you know, if if I project a team at say

1057
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 2: five point eight wins, but there's a lot of like

1058
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 2: one hundred percent win one hundred percent games like close

1059
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 2: to one hundred percent and then close to zero percent,

1060
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 2: and then there's like two or three coin flips compared

1061
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 2: to like if there's a ton of coin flips, then

1062
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:30,280
Speaker 2: in the former I'm gonna I'm gonna be more willing

1063
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 2: to pay for that half win then, So it really

1064
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 2: depends on the distribution in this case.

1065
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: And if you spot there's no hedge spot for three

1066
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 3: weeks against Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa.

1067
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. The one thing I will say with Nebraska, if

1068
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,360
Speaker 2: I don't mind the under at all, to kind of

1069
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:52,720
Speaker 2: the case for them to appease my friends in Lincoln

1070
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 2: and surrounding areas that Okay, you have White comes in,

1071
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: gonna implement a three three five. I like their their

1072
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 2: corners or the strength the defense if they you know,

1073
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 2: if he can scheme pressure she has done in the past,

1074
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 2: and the young defensive line comes together, transfer pieces fit in.

1075
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 2: You have the corners, the d has some promise, you know.

1076
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 2: And then the offense with sims and the offensive line

1077
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 2: which has been so disappointed, but maybe they could stay healthy.

1078
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 2: You had a center from the transfer portal, maybe hits.

1079
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 2: And then with rule you get you know fixed. I

1080
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:28,759
Speaker 2: think the special teams are a lot better now, which

1081
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 2: has been a problem for them. You get better just

1082
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 2: discipline in game decisions, the little things, and you win

1083
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:37,400
Speaker 2: the close games that you've been losing. You fix the

1084
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 2: turnover problem as well. In a division with all of

1085
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 2: this change and new quarterbacks and new schemes where it's

1086
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 2: just chaos. If you are a Nebraska believer, instead of

1087
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: the win total over, bet on the chaos. Bet on

1088
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 2: those things and then take a shot at like what

1089
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 2: eighteen to one six to win the division that on

1090
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: the upside, it's not only just the the upside of Nebraska,

1091
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 2: it's really just the chaos of the division. Like Wisconsin.

1092
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:08,879
Speaker 2: This complete identity change, right like I obviously could be

1093
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 2: a mess as always. Who knows, they could lose anybody

1094
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 2: in any week. It's it's a messy division. So that's

1095
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:18,280
Speaker 2: why I would attack Nebraska.

1096
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: Time to take a bigger pight out of this court.

1097
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: Stock anything on Purdue Hudson Card coming in. New head

1098
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 2: coach Ryan Walters loved him as the defensive coordinator for Illinois.

1099
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 3: I mean I do projected a six, although I usually

1100
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 3: have problems with defensive coordinators taking over his head coaches,

1101
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 3: especially in year one. But Graham Harold does come in.

1102
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 3: He's going to bring the air raid. He's going to

1103
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 3: bring some little bit outside zone when they do decided

1104
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 3: to run. He had thirty two percent RPO West Virginia

1105
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 3: last year, but I think that was more of West

1106
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:49,959
Speaker 3: Virginia's identity, the fact that they like to run the ball.

1107
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,839
Speaker 3: We'll get to that in the Big twelve section. The

1108
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 3: defense for Walters returns fifty percent of their tackles and pressures.

1109
00:52:56,760 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 1: But this schedule includes Ohio State, Michigan. You know, so, Hudson.

1110
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: Card, he's going to be asked to run this power

1111
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:07,319
Speaker 3: raid that Graham Harrald wants to go. So to me,

1112
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 3: it's more of an unknown if Hudson Card has the

1113
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:13,240
Speaker 3: ability to do this, because he didn't have the ability

1114
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 3: to take over the quarterback position with some really shoddy

1115
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:16,760
Speaker 3: play at Texas.

1116
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:18,800
Speaker 1: Uh, there's a bottom five.

1117
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 3: Unit here, like in all of the Big Ten for

1118
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 3: at every position, so it's not a team I want

1119
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 3: to get into. My number says at six, I should

1120
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,879
Speaker 3: probably play the over five and a half. But they

1121
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:31,799
Speaker 3: are going to be a pass for me, you know,

1122
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 3: along with Minnesota, they're also a pass. I project them

1123
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 3: six point nine when total at seven. I'm not going

1124
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 3: to get into you know, we know what they want

1125
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 3: to do, but there are going to be you know,

1126
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 3: new wide receiver weapons for their Greek quarterback, and you know,

1127
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 3: I think that's going to have time to you know,

1128
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:49,959
Speaker 3: to work itself. But they also play Michigan Ohio State,

1129
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 3: so schedule is not real forgiving there either.

1130
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 1: So no play on Michigan. I'm sorry at Minnesota either.

1131
00:53:56,400 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. What I'll say with Purdue is yeah, I mean

1132
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 2: you have new defensive coordator. It's gonna be a lot

1133
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,479
Speaker 2: of Walters stuff. You're transitioning to like a three four

1134
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 2: with like basically five down the lineman. You're gonna have

1135
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 2: your edges on the line of scrimmage. They have a

1136
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:13,800
Speaker 2: brand new defensive line. They need transfers to hit here.

1137
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 2: I like their linebackers, their safeties, but they need to

1138
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 2: replace two corners, so they need transfers to hit there.

1139
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:23,439
Speaker 2: As well. They also lost a really good kicker. There's

1140
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 2: a lot of change here. H do schemes on offense

1141
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 2: and defense and basically you know, so it's good that

1142
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 2: that's happening in the division with a lot of change,

1143
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:35,879
Speaker 2: but when you have that much change, you really want

1144
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 2: to have kind of some cupcakes early on, and that's

1145
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 2: not the case. So with Purdue, THATTMGM over five minus

1146
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 2: one twenty you can find but I think you can

1147
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 2: probably find a way to play them in the first

1148
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 2: couple of weeks if you have an opinion, because I

1149
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 2: assume and you're right, they go to Iowa. They have

1150
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 2: Wisconsin in the fourth week, which isn't great, or maybe

1151
00:54:57,320 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: you get them with a head turmoil, who knows. But

1152
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,760
Speaker 2: then they also get Ohio State and they're at Michigan

1153
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 2: and then they're at Nebraska in between those two games,

1154
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 2: but you know, they're non con Fresno State at home

1155
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 2: depends on how everything's going at VA Tech right and

1156
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 2: then home against Syracuse like.

1157
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 3: That, it's not a murderer's row of offense is considering

1158
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,320
Speaker 3: what President's going through with personnel changes.

1159
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, I agree with you on Purdue. It's

1160
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna look to play them on a week to

1161
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:32,239
Speaker 2: week basis, and in regards to Minnesota, yeah, was potentially

1162
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 2: going to look at an under but after adjusting some

1163
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 2: other teams, I asked, But yeah, their their schedule is brutal.

1164
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:43,919
Speaker 2: To lose a lot on defense, especially on the back

1165
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 2: end at corner, so that really could dip. You'd hope

1166
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 2: that the passing game does get better, even though they

1167
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:52,839
Speaker 2: lost Morgan. All right, so that'll anything Northwestern, by the way,

1168
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:57,720
Speaker 2: Northwestern is so we'll close with them for mister Darren Ravel.

1169
00:55:58,200 --> 00:55:59,919
Speaker 2: So there are wind titles down to three. I think

1170
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 2: it was off the board, and so I mean three

1171
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:05,800
Speaker 2: flat they get. It's for me. I mean, there was

1172
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 2: a ton of signs that say positive regression. It's like

1173
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,800
Speaker 2: a terrible year for Fitzgerald and he always just seems

1174
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 2: to bounce back somehow. But you know, and they were

1175
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 2: like one in five in one possession games last year.

1176
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 2: They were one hundred and thirtieth in turnover margin. But then,

1177
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 2: like all this happens in the offseason, there's a quarterback competition,

1178
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,839
Speaker 2: probably Ben Bryant. They don't return a ton If one

1179
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 2: returning offensive line starter is coming back from knee surgery,

1180
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 2: lost their top three pass catchers. New defensive coordinator takes

1181
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 2: over d that was awful. Questions at defensive tackle and cornerback.

1182
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 2: Their special teams are dicey. They draw Penn State, Rutgers,

1183
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 2: Maryland out of the East. They also play three straight

1184
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 2: Big Ten opponents that are coming off of a bye,

1185
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 2: which isn't great. You say to yourself, how does this

1186
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 2: with us? You get the four wins? I mean, like

1187
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,839
Speaker 2: at Rutgers Week one, I guess it's winnable. I don't

1188
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 2: think they're winning that game. Tap at home, Minnesota at home,

1189
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 2: Penn's State at home, Howard at home, By at Nebraska,

1190
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 2: and Maryland at home, Iowa Chicago. Maybe they beat Iowa

1191
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 2: like nine to seven per do at home. Like, I

1192
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 2: don't know, how does this team get the four wins?

1193
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 3: So I think i've kind of I have purposely not

1194
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 3: said anything about Northwestern with all this going on, because

1195
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 3: the word in the locker room was there was going

1196
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:32,720
Speaker 3: to be a mass exodus to the portal if David

1197
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 3: Brown was not named the interim head coach. He was

1198
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 3: brought over from North Dakota State. He was there for

1199
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 3: three years as a defensive coordinator, we know that that

1200
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 3: is the top team in FCS. He was named the

1201
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 3: top coordinator in all of FCS in twenty twenty one.

1202
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 3: This was an amazing hire for Northwestern to go out

1203
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 3: and get David Brown to pick up a defense that

1204
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 3: was near dead last and success right one hundredth and

1205
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 3: defensive finishing drives and created no havoc whatsoever. So if

1206
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 3: the sentiment out of the locker room was we're all

1207
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 3: hitting the portal if you don't make our DC, our

1208
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 3: new DC who's only been there in a couple of months,

1209
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 3: this poor guy accept the job of dealing with this shit, has.

1210
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 1: To go up to media days and his AD's not

1211
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 1: even there anyways. He's not being paid enough.

1212
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 3: I don't know what David Bron's salary is, but you're

1213
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 3: not being paid enough, my friend. So if the players

1214
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 3: in the locker room are committed to their interim head

1215
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 3: coach DC and all said we're going to hit the

1216
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:29,040
Speaker 3: portal if he's not named the head coach, that means

1217
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 3: they're staying, and that means they're playing with an agenda.

1218
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 3: It's not one of these you know, Michigan State things

1219
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 3: where they just fall off the map. These guys seem

1220
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 3: fired up to play for David bron So I think

1221
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 3: what I want to do is let this come.

1222
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 1: Down to three.

1223
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:49,400
Speaker 3: In Northwest, I think I am If there's a two

1224
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 3: and a half, I'm going to play it. If it's

1225
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 3: three flat, I'll think about it. But we see this

1226
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 3: all the time. We see this all the time. Head

1227
00:58:57,120 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 3: coach gets fired, players are pissed off, they want one

1228
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,360
Speaker 3: certain guy to be the interim. That guy gets named

1229
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 3: the interim, and then they play their asses off the

1230
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 3: entire season. I don't think Northwestern's world beaters at all.

1231
00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna struggle to even win a games.

1232
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 1: You know it, so Howard and utep.

1233
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:12,600
Speaker 3: But at the same time, it's not gonna be because

1234
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 3: of a lack of motivation or ambition or whatever the

1235
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:18,000
Speaker 3: is this roster wants because they got the guy that

1236
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 3: they wanted to be interim head coach.

1237
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're gonna be a valuable dog at times.

1238
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 2: I like Rutgers will transition into our three. Now. I

1239
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 2: like the Rutgers over I'm scared of that Week one

1240
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:35,600
Speaker 2: game at home. I think Rutgers are gonna win. I'm

1241
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 2: pretty confident, But it's like everyone writes off Northwestern all

1242
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 2: the shit, and then they go on the road and

1243
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 2: it's just like fuck you to everybody. I'm petrified of that.

1244
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 2: And uh they have Yeah, then UTEP at home so

1245
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 2: they could jump out the two another and you're powered

1246
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 2: at home. Uh so, yeah, it's definitely due. I'm not

1247
00:59:56,800 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: playing the under, but I won't be joining you on three.

1248
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 2: Maybe if it goes to two and a half, if

1249
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 2: there's the hate continues, yeah, I could get there, but

1250
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 2: not a three. All right, let's good stuff on the

1251
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:13,480
Speaker 2: Big Ten, the always ultra competitive East, the truly wild

1252
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 2: wild West in the last year of divisions in the

1253
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: Big Ten before they expand to sixteen teams next season.

1254
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 2: Before we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1255
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:31,200
Speaker 1: Well, let's make it a quick three and out.

1256
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's start with first down and let's talk

1257
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:42,600
Speaker 2: week one or week zero, Week zero, week one. We'll

1258
01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 2: do this for every conference betting pre before the Power

1259
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:50,880
Speaker 2: five conferences that Colin and I cover a take Big

1260
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 2: Ten related that has caught your eye.

1261
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 3: I've been waiting for this podcast before I shove it

1262
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 3: in the app, I am going to bet it and

1263
01:00:57,280 --> 01:00:59,320
Speaker 3: put in the app right after we get done recording.

1264
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:01,760
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Wisconsin minus twenty three and a half

1265
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 3: against a Buffalo team that has done nothing to address

1266
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 3: anything in the back seven when it comes to giving

1267
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:12,480
Speaker 3: up explosive plays. Buffalo was dead last and standardowns explosives.

1268
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 3: They weren't very good against pass EPA. This is a

1269
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,960
Speaker 3: Mac defense with a bunch of small new faces in

1270
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 3: the secondary, and Wisconsin is coming out for a show

1271
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 3: with this new offense. Tanner Mordecai, wide receivers, Braylan Allen

1272
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 3: getting holes. Bear that you can drive trucks through. Buffalo

1273
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 3: is not going to be a real test for Wisconsin.

1274
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 3: I think Luke Fickle will want to make a name

1275
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 3: for himself. I power rate this game twenty seven and

1276
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 3: a half. I expected to close at twenty eight. So

1277
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,440
Speaker 3: right now, a month before kick, I'm going to take

1278
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 3: Wisconsin minus twenty three and a half against a very

1279
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 3: very poor secondary back seven of Buffalo and an offense

1280
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 3: that is not going to be able to get anywhere

1281
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 3: against a legit Wisconsin defense.

1282
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 2: Completely a great Buffalo defense should get absolutely shredded here.

1283
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 2: And it's the showcase game. You know, can't Randle excited?

1284
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,760
Speaker 2: Let's get the fans excited and run this up, which

1285
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 2: they should be able to do. Don't mind first half

1286
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 2: throwing that in there as well. Yeah, I'm trying. I'm

1287
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 2: I had that game circled. I'm trying. We were on

1288
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:21,080
Speaker 2: the same pants this entire podcast. I'm scrambling right now.

1289
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 1: Share notes, everybody. I promise we did not share notes.

1290
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking to see if there's anything else that

1291
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 2: I had circled. I watched. I was out in Vegas

1292
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 2: this past weekend. I watched all the Michigan thirty fives

1293
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:36,280
Speaker 2: get picked off in East Carolina. Took money that's down

1294
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 2: to thirty four off the key number thirty five. I

1295
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:42,600
Speaker 2: was laying. I was going for twenty one to twenty three.

1296
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 2: The total's gone from forty eight to forty three. You

1297
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 2: don't see that every day.

1298
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 3: I did have some interest in central Michigan, but I

1299
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 3: didn't I didn't believe enough that they could take avantge

1300
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 3: of Michigan. Saint Stephen's plus Meltucker really kills directional schools.

1301
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 1: So I laid off of that. That was on the

1302
01:02:56,600 --> 01:02:57,160
Speaker 1: radar though.

1303
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, nothing else for Mandy, So well, well, I agree,

1304
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:01,600
Speaker 2: let's i'll coase on Wisconsin. We'll obviously break down other

1305
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:04,680
Speaker 2: games on our week's Heero Week one betting previews, but

1306
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 2: let's move on to second down, and that is our

1307
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:13,800
Speaker 2: favorite under. I think you just made a natural transition

1308
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 2: talking about Michigan State. I think we are both going

1309
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 2: to agree here, So why don't you make a quick case.

1310
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 1: I'll add anything on or my under.

1311
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 3: I'm going to take Nebraska under six plus one thirty.

1312
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 3: I do project this at six. No path on the

1313
01:03:28,240 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 3: schedule for them to get to seven wins. This culture

1314
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:38,880
Speaker 3: is more about establishing a foundation, a lifestyle, team chemistry.

1315
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 1: That's what Matt Rule is all about.

1316
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:44,880
Speaker 3: That's how he has built Temple and Baylor in years past.

1317
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 3: His record at Temple and Baylor first year three and

1318
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 3: twenty one does not care about wins, does not care

1319
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 3: about anything except establishing a culture. I hope Nebraska fans

1320
01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 3: are able to be patient, allow Matt Rule to get

1321
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 3: this year, get his systems in place, get this new

1322
01:04:01,800 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 3: defensive offensive scheme going together, and allow him one more

1323
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:07,000
Speaker 3: trip through the portal before they get all upset. But

1324
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 3: to say this again, I do project them at six.

1325
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:13,439
Speaker 3: It's mathematically not a bet. It is just a bet

1326
01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:16,400
Speaker 3: on the fact that Matt Rule has sold his ad

1327
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 3: on a vision that we are establishing in a culture,

1328
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 3: and not the fact that I'm going to bend what

1329
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 3: I want to do just for wins.

1330
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 1: In the first season. So I'm going under six on Nebraska.

1331
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:28,080
Speaker 2: Don't hate that at all. I'm going to go with

1332
01:04:28,120 --> 01:04:33,040
Speaker 2: an under that you also agree with, and that's Michigan State.

1333
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 2: I like the under five and a half juice or

1334
01:04:35,800 --> 01:04:37,680
Speaker 2: if you want to go under five plus money, either

1335
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 2: or works. This is a brutal, brutal schedule. I mean

1336
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 2: they're going to Iowa two Rutgers. They have Michigan at

1337
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 2: Ohio State, Penn State, only three true Big Ten home games.

1338
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 2: They even have to go to Indiana and to Rutgers,

1339
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:57,680
Speaker 2: like I mentioned, the two worst teams in their division,

1340
01:04:57,840 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 2: and they're going to a rebuilding Indiana team at the

1341
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 2: end of the year. There's some tough spots in the schedule.

1342
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:06,160
Speaker 2: They lost their quarterback after spring, their top two receivers,

1343
01:05:06,160 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 2: one of the NFL the other after spring to the Portal.

1344
01:05:09,200 --> 01:05:11,120
Speaker 2: The defense has been a mess, and I lose their

1345
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:13,800
Speaker 2: two best d bat. I don't see it really improving

1346
01:05:13,840 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 2: that much. Yes, the offensive line is more experienced, but

1347
01:05:17,400 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 2: it's been a mess. I just don't like where this

1348
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:22,960
Speaker 2: program is headed. I do not see them getting the

1349
01:05:22,960 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 2: boil eligibility going with Sparty under. I have a really

1350
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 2: loyal following listener, Testa who's not gonna be pleased with that.

1351
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 2: Sorry to all my friends at East Lanting. I took

1352
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 2: an URV out there one time to watch Kirk Cousins

1353
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 2: and beat Russell Wilson on a Hail Mary in the

1354
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:48,480
Speaker 2: last play of the game. Electric Game one of my

1355
01:05:48,600 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 2: fondest college football memories as far as going to games.

1356
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 2: But I'm going with Michigan State under Collins, going Nebraska

1357
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:59,480
Speaker 2: under and for third down, it's either an over or

1358
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:02,720
Speaker 2: a future. Do what we got well.

1359
01:06:02,800 --> 01:06:06,000
Speaker 3: I want to give everybody the Maryland over seven and

1360
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:08,479
Speaker 3: they have enough pieces at quarterback and at the wide

1361
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:12,280
Speaker 3: receiver position to give a lot of defenses with bad

1362
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 3: secondaries trouble. And even though they have a tough schedule

1363
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:18,720
Speaker 3: in the division that they're in, it's a win total

1364
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:20,720
Speaker 3: that I project over the seventh, so I like the

1365
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 3: plus money that goes along with this. They're going to

1366
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:26,920
Speaker 3: be good enough to beat and win eight games on

1367
01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:29,280
Speaker 3: this schedule. It is a pretty soft outside of the

1368
01:06:29,320 --> 01:06:32,680
Speaker 3: big boys over in their division. But we're talking futures

1369
01:06:32,680 --> 01:06:34,840
Speaker 3: and we're talking the Big Ten. It's not Michigan, it's

1370
01:06:34,880 --> 01:06:36,959
Speaker 3: not Ohio State, it's Penn State.

1371
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:38,400
Speaker 1: It is Penn State's.

1372
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:42,440
Speaker 3: Time to finally answer the question if they're back similar

1373
01:06:42,440 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 3: to Texas, Right, Well, Penn State is back this year.

1374
01:06:44,840 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 3: They're going to bring back the best defense in college football,

1375
01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:50,720
Speaker 3: the best secondary, the best linebackers, the best defensive line.

1376
01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 3: Oh by the way, they have two explosive playmakers at

1377
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:55,280
Speaker 3: the running back position. Their offensive line is going to

1378
01:06:55,320 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 3: be fine. I trusted Mike Yersich as the offensive coordinator

1379
01:06:58,360 --> 01:07:01,080
Speaker 3: to manage Drew Aller, who is coming off a season

1380
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:04,440
Speaker 3: limited in dropbacks and passing attempts. But he didn't have

1381
01:07:04,440 --> 01:07:07,200
Speaker 3: any interceptions and no turnover worthy plays, and that's pretty

1382
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 3: admirable as a freshman, even if it is mop up time.

1383
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:13,160
Speaker 3: I believe in Mike Irisic and Manny Diaz is a

1384
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:16,200
Speaker 3: great coordinator, not so great of a head coach. We

1385
01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:18,200
Speaker 3: don't have to worry about that here. As a defensive coordinator.

1386
01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 3: This is a team I believe is going to get

1387
01:07:20,280 --> 01:07:23,120
Speaker 3: one of two against Michigan. Ohio State eleven and one

1388
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 3: I think is their floor. As long as James Franklin

1389
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:29,200
Speaker 3: and clock management and bad decisions of fourth down don't

1390
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:32,240
Speaker 3: take this out of our hands. Penn State plus four

1391
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:34,080
Speaker 3: to forty is out there to make the playoff. The

1392
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:36,440
Speaker 3: lowest I would buy it is four to one, and

1393
01:07:36,480 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 3: I am shopping all the.

1394
01:07:37,480 --> 01:07:39,600
Speaker 1: Way up until the season starts to get a better number.

1395
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:43,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully this is the Maryland finally bites Penn State.

1396
01:07:43,680 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 2: But I agree, I'm going to go take it one

1397
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:51,960
Speaker 2: step further. Yes, we are back. I'm going for the

1398
01:07:51,960 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 2: whole shebang. Twenty five to one I think is bet

1399
01:07:54,960 --> 01:07:59,280
Speaker 2: MGM shop around as always, but look, the defense is there.

1400
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:00,760
Speaker 2: It's the top five d defense. To me, I can

1401
01:08:00,800 --> 01:08:03,440
Speaker 2: confidently say that it's all going to come down to

1402
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 2: Drew Holler and then I want someone to step up

1403
01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 2: as the guy at receiver. I let the upside there.

1404
01:08:09,640 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 2: That's what I'm buying is they do get to the

1405
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:14,560
Speaker 2: College Football Playoff in the last year of this college

1406
01:08:14,600 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 2: wall Playoff for the first time. That means Alur reached

1407
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 2: or exceeded his expectations and the ceiling is very high,

1408
01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:25,519
Speaker 2: and that means they can play with anybody in the country,

1409
01:08:26,000 --> 01:08:28,960
Speaker 2: and I much prefer buying that upside then a Big

1410
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,520
Speaker 2: Ten future, because, as we outlined earlier in the episode,

1411
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:34,960
Speaker 2: there is a chance where in a tiebreaker, because they

1412
01:08:34,960 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 2: have Northwestern and Michigan and Ohio State, doesn't that they

1413
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 2: get left out and they lose that tie breaker. But

1414
01:08:42,720 --> 01:08:44,600
Speaker 2: even if that happens, there's still a path which we

1415
01:08:44,600 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 2: saw last year, where they could still make it to

1416
01:08:46,360 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 2: the College Football Playoff. I'm buying the upside on Penn State,

1417
01:08:50,920 --> 01:08:53,320
Speaker 2: which I think that there's just way too much value

1418
01:08:53,320 --> 01:08:57,360
Speaker 2: there when compared to Ohio State and Michigan similar questions

1419
01:08:57,960 --> 01:09:01,280
Speaker 2: with each of those offenses. We are give me the

1420
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:06,040
Speaker 2: nitny Lyons to win the national championship. Also like your

1421
01:09:06,040 --> 01:09:08,640
Speaker 2: play and getting to the College Bubble Playoff. All right,

1422
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:11,479
Speaker 2: that'll do it for us. Wrapping up the Big Ten

1423
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:16,439
Speaker 2: and the always interesting East Division and the wild Wild West.

1424
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 2: Thanks as always to column Thanks to our audio and

1425
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:20,640
Speaker 2: video teams on the back end. Thanks to all of

1426
01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:22,920
Speaker 2: you of course for tuning in. It's so good to

1427
01:09:22,960 --> 01:09:26,479
Speaker 2: be back. We're gonna keep churning these out. We're doing

1428
01:09:26,920 --> 01:09:30,000
Speaker 2: about the record the Big Twelve, which will be fun

1429
01:09:30,360 --> 01:09:32,760
Speaker 2: next you know. Then we're gonna get it. Continue with

1430
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:35,200
Speaker 2: the group of five sec next week, so they're gonna

1431
01:09:35,240 --> 01:09:38,080
Speaker 2: keep coming. Before you know it, week's zero. Week one

1432
01:09:38,200 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 2: will be here. Can't wait to sweat games with all

1433
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 2: of you. If you have a chance, please leave a review,

1434
01:09:42,200 --> 01:09:44,240
Speaker 2: a five star review. They really help us out, especially

1435
01:09:44,320 --> 01:09:46,240
Speaker 2: early in the season. We'll do a ton of giveaways

1436
01:09:46,280 --> 01:09:48,200
Speaker 2: leading up to the season. If you've already done one,

1437
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 2: just grab someone else's phone, your girlfriend, friends, moms, whoever

1438
01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:54,120
Speaker 2: leave a five star review, say whatever. Shoot on me

1439
01:09:54,200 --> 01:09:56,320
Speaker 2: Colin for any of our picks. Say what you think

1440
01:09:56,640 --> 01:09:58,400
Speaker 2: as long as it's five star. That will help us out.

1441
01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. As always, it's good to be back.

1442
01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:03,679
Speaker 2: We'll catch all next time. Cheers.

1443
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:21,240
Speaker 1: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1444
01:10:21,280 --> 01:10:23,879
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1445
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:26,760
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1446
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler