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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. Crystal,

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Speaker 1: you're at home, you're not feeling so well. Out of

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Speaker 1: abundance of caution, We're going to make sure that you're

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Speaker 1: all right. You want to tell the folks give them

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Speaker 1: an update. Yeah, So over the holiday weekend, I tested

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Speaker 1: positive for the old coronavirus and the came for me.

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Speaker 1: This is that's my first belt with it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm fine. I feel probably like I'm going to say

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Speaker 1: ninety two percent better, and according to what the doctors

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Speaker 1: are saying, you know, I shouldn't be contagious anymore in

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Speaker 1: any of that stuff, but I just wanted to be

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Speaker 1: super safe and not in fact anybody so doing the

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Speaker 1: show remotely today. But I am well on the path

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Speaker 1: to recovery, and we do have a great show for

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Speaker 1: you today. We've got some new dire warnings about economy

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Speaker 1: actually might already be in recession, so we will break

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Speaker 1: all of that down for you. We're also going to

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Speaker 1: bring you the latest details on that horrific mass shooting

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Speaker 1: in Highland Park, Illinois suburb outside of Chicago. They have

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Speaker 1: arrested what they describe as a person adventure, so we've

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Speaker 1: got all those details for you. We also have some

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Speaker 1: pretty stunning polling on how the public feels both about

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Speaker 1: Biden and about Trump, the two dudes who are most

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Speaker 1: likely to be the major party nominees that basically no

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Speaker 1: one wants them to be, So we'll break that down

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Speaker 1: for you. Big developments down in Ukraine, how will the

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Speaker 1: public respond? How is the administration responding? New questions there

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Speaker 1: about whether we've been fed and overly rosy picture of

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Speaker 1: what is going on on the ground and some new

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Speaker 1: questions about Pro Secretary Karine Jean Pierre and how she

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Speaker 1: is performing in the job. Also a reminder of our

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Speaker 1: big live show in Atlanta. There it is Atlanta, September sixteenth.

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Speaker 1: We're coming, folks. We've done a phenomenal job of selling

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Speaker 1: tickets so well. They tell me that we're blowing expectations

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Speaker 1: out of the water, which is exactly what we want.

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Speaker 1: Just as a reminder, we are coming not just to

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Speaker 1: Atlanta but all over. But we have to show that

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Speaker 1: we can sell tickets in Atlanta before we can book

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Speaker 1: venues anywhere else across the country. So it's going to

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Speaker 1: be fun. It's a big midterm show. We're going to

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Speaker 1: have special guests and all that stuff. We're already planning

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Speaker 1: the production. So if you can go ahead and buy tickets,

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Speaker 1: means the world put to us to the show and

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Speaker 1: just shows the industry we are viable. We are as

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Speaker 1: big as we think we are, so hopefully we can

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Speaker 1: show that to everyone. So let's start then with the economy.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: What do we got here, which is that the Atlanta

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Speaker 1: Fed and this is very interesting. The GDP tracker that

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Speaker 1: they use in order to foret whether the US is

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Speaker 1: in recession or not actually shows that the US is

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Speaker 1: likely in a recession right now. The GDP gauge says

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Speaker 1: that the second quarter is running at a negative two

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Speaker 1: point one percent, and if you couple that with the

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Speaker 1: first quarter decline at one point six percent, that actually

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Speaker 1: does fit the technical definition of a recession. So let's

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Speaker 1: also thlow the next one up there on the screen, please,

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Speaker 1: because that's really what factored into the decision making, which

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Speaker 1: is that the one point six percent decline in the

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Speaker 1: start to the year really did show you that it

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Speaker 1: was on pace in order to show one point eight

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Speaker 1: percent instead of the three point one percent that was

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Speaker 1: estimated in may. You couple this all this together and

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Speaker 1: you just see the economy is getting slammed. The reason

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Speaker 1: that the meat there is the first sign is that

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Speaker 1: food inflation, gas inflation, cost of living inflation, rent inflation,

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Speaker 1: and more are just smacking consumers at left, right, and center,

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Speaker 1: and all of that is impacting the ability of the

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Speaker 1: average consumer crystal in order to go out and spend money,

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Speaker 1: which is seventy percent of the entire US economy. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's exactly right. And I mean you already have a

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Speaker 1: majority of Americans saying they think we are in a

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Speaker 1: recession or headed your recession. Now we are seeing some

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Speaker 1: numbers to back that up. You also see economic confidence.

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Speaker 1: Let's put the next element up on the screen, the

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Speaker 1: lowest since two thousand and nine. It's plunged to minus

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Speaker 1: fifty eight as of June, eighty five percent of Americans

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Speaker 1: say the economy is getting worse and yet sober. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this next piece up. It's a very strange recession

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Speaker 1: because people are getting hit hard. You know, their wages

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Speaker 1: are not coming anywhere close to keeping up with inflation,

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Speaker 1: so that means they're basically getting a pay cut every period.

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Speaker 1: Growth is negative, so that is the technical definition of recession.

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Speaker 1: And yet the unemployment rate continues to be quite low.

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Speaker 1: So they say in this piece for the Wall of

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Speaker 1: Tree Journal, if the US is in a recession is

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Speaker 1: a very strange one. Analysts sometimes talk about job lists

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Speaker 1: recoveries after pass recessions, in which economic output rows but

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Speaker 1: employers kept shutting workers. Well, the first half of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two was the mirror image a job full downturn

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Speaker 1: in which output felt and companies kept hiring. Whether it

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Speaker 1: will spiral into a fuller and deeper recession isn't known,

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Speaker 1: though a growing number of economists believe that it will.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's very unlikely that you move

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Speaker 1: forward into full on recession and don't see the unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate go up significantly. But even with the rate where

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Speaker 1: it is, there's still such a large amount of pain growing,

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Speaker 1: especially for working class people because their wages just aren't

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Speaker 1: going far so out coming out of COVID. You just

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Speaker 1: have such a strange confluence of events and circumstances with

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Speaker 1: the supply chain shocks now with the war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: that it is creating economic conditions which are almost unprecedented,

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Speaker 1: very hard to predict where this ultimately goes. Yeah, no,

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Speaker 1: I think that's the right way, you know, And I

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Speaker 1: actually I get annoyed by the timeechnical quibbling by the

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Speaker 1: economists on whether we're technically in a recession or not.

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Speaker 1: It's like, look, shit is too expensive. It's simple. You know,

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Speaker 1: everybody feels that cost of living is too expensive. That's

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Speaker 1: why consumer sentiment, as we showed, is all the way

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Speaker 1: down to February of two thousand and nine, whether we

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Speaker 1: were tracked by one point two versus one point eight,

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Speaker 1: the basic fact is is that cost of living is

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Speaker 1: way too high for one hundred percent of Americans. And

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Speaker 1: if you consider that in the context of wages, yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: you know, you could have the unemployment rate at three

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Speaker 1: point six as long as wages are only rising by

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Speaker 1: two percent and cost of living is going up by

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Speaker 1: some measures around ten to fifteen. If you look at

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Speaker 1: some of the really tough areas of life we've talked

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Speaker 1: about before. You know that car segment we did on

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Speaker 1: how the average payment was six to fifty, Well now

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Speaker 1: it's over seven hundred actually, so jumped up fifty dollars

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Speaker 1: once more in the last month. Supply chain shortage is

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Speaker 1: wrecking everything from what people need in their most basics.

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Speaker 1: So whether we're technically retracting not retracting unemployment rate, things

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Speaker 1: are too expensive. And I think from that perspective, nobody

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Speaker 1: can argue that the economy is, what does Biden say,

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Speaker 1: the strongest since World War Two? It's like, yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: wage growth then was actually pretty high, so you know, yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: and I mean one thing I really worry about that

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Speaker 1: we talked about before is you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: big hopeful things this year, one of the only big

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Speaker 1: hopeful things this year has been the energy and the

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Speaker 1: labor movement, which really came directly was enabled by the

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Speaker 1: fact that number one, you have an NLRB that is

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Speaker 1: actually you know, taking the side of not even taking

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Speaker 1: the side of the workers, but you know, doing their

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Speaker 1: job effectively. But the big reason is that you have

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Speaker 1: these labor market conditions where jobs are plentiful, even if

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Speaker 1: they are not good jobs. So if you see the

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Speaker 1: economy start to turn so that not only are your

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Speaker 1: wages getting undercut by inflation, but you also have you know,

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Speaker 1: fewer and fewer jobs and people more desperate just to

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Speaker 1: hold on to any job that they can possibly get.

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Speaker 1: That is going to cut the knees right down of

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Speaker 1: the burgeoning labor movement. One of the things that they

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Speaker 1: pointed to in that Wall Street Journal piece which was

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Speaker 1: very interesting about you know, it's a very weird recession

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Speaker 1: is part of what's going on with the negative negative

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Speaker 1: growth is retailers are having a lot of trouble figuring

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Speaker 1: out their inventory needs. So you had you know, this

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Speaker 1: supply chain issues which continue, by the way, but some

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Speaker 1: of some of which have gotten worked out a little bit,

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Speaker 1: some of which have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: But they built up a lot of stock to get

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Speaker 1: ahead of the fact that, okay, we've got all these disruptions,

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Speaker 1: we've got to get enough in into a warehouses. And

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Speaker 1: now they're caught kind of like holding the bag with

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Speaker 1: too much inventory. So rather than building more inventory, they're

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Speaker 1: spending their selling that off and you know, trying to

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Speaker 1: trying to get that off their shelves. And so that's

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Speaker 1: part of what's contributing to this negative growth and why

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Speaker 1: you have such a kind of you know, weird situation

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Speaker 1: on folding with the economy is we are still trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to get things back to any

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Speaker 1: semblance of smooth operation post COVID and post all the

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Speaker 1: supply shocks that have to do with that. And look,

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Speaker 1: it's a long term question too of how much sustainability

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Speaker 1: versus fragility we want to have in the supply chain.

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Speaker 1: I hope that moving forward the government puts policies in

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Speaker 1: place to encourage more resilience, but you know, don't hold

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Speaker 1: your breath on that one. Yeah, I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: hold my breath. Unfortunately, I with all the signs that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing FED continues to high rates. That's less investment

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Speaker 1: that companies can make into their you know, into both

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Speaker 1: capital expenditure, workforce. They're going to have to cut costs

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Speaker 1: in order to keep their share price medium at least

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Speaker 1: in the long term, or try to deliver back dividends

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Speaker 1: and more. At the same time, the supply chain issues

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Speaker 1: are nowhere close to getting resolved. Target and all of

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Speaker 1: these other retailers that are dealing with inventory, their response

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Speaker 1: is not to deal with or rent more warehouse space,

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Speaker 1: which is also, by the way, sky high right now.

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Speaker 1: Their response is to slash and burn and to try

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Speaker 1: and sell as much of it as humanly possible. So

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Speaker 1: we're actually learning, in my opinion, some of the worst

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Speaker 1: lessons from a lot of the supply chain crisis just

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Speaker 1: because of the financialization in the economy. And I think

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Speaker 1: all of it is just can contribute to everything being

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Speaker 1: more expensive. Gas is going to be expensive for the

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Speaker 1: foreseeable future. I just don't think that there's a way

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Speaker 1: around it. I don't think of food prices or any

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Speaker 1: of that is going to come down, not just because

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine, but because of so many fertilizer that we've

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Speaker 1: talked about LNG shortages, so all of the shortages, nitrogen

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Speaker 1: and inputs into the food and gas supply chain the

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Speaker 1: basics of life. Unless we see a legitimate New Deal

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Speaker 1: style effort, which you and I know is not coming,

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Speaker 1: then well it's like things are just going to be

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Speaker 1: expensive basically from here on out. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: very unfortunate. Let me say one thing about that, because

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Speaker 1: this was also interesting to me. There was another article

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Speaker 1: about how a lot of commodity prices are actually coming down.

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Speaker 1: We eat corn oil, and they didn't attribute it in

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Speaker 1: the spiece that was read as another Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 1: keyece to you know, oh changes supply and demand and

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Speaker 1: oh we now have better supply gear less demand there.

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Speaker 1: It was all because Wall Street speculators had decided to

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Speaker 1: make different decisions, which I think you know. It's also

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Speaker 1: important to remember that these prices don't just reflect the

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Speaker 1: basics of where supply and demand intersect, as we're taught

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Speaker 1: in econ one on one. A lot of this and

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Speaker 1: you see this very clearly in the oil price, in

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Speaker 1: particular the gas price that you're paying at the pump

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Speaker 1: versus what the price of veryl of oil is a

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Speaker 1: lot of this is also driven by Wall Street speculators

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Speaker 1: and the best that they're making, irrespective of what else

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Speaker 1: is going on in the real economy. So there was

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Speaker 1: some hopefulness in that article that because commodity prices were

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Speaker 1: coming down, maybe inflation has reached its peak. Maybe it's

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Speaker 1: going to go in the other direction. But I think

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Speaker 1: we're a long way from all of these things settling out.

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Speaker 1: I think that's right because even as you're describing, you know,

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Speaker 1: fifteen dollars drop. Part of the problem with inflation is expectations.

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Speaker 1: So part of the reason the prices are staying high

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Speaker 1: is people are like, oh, well, expectations are chaos, and

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Speaker 1: so we're going to keep the price high just in

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Speaker 1: case go forward. I wish it fluctuated, like you said,

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Speaker 1: with pure supply and demand, but that's not how things

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Speaker 1: work in the US of A. Right now, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about inflation as well. So a shocking comment, honestly from

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, where he was giving

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Speaker 1: a recent speech at a panel in which he basically

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Speaker 1: admitted that the FED doesn't know anything about inflation. Let's

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Speaker 1: take a listen. One way to say it would be

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Speaker 1: we I think we now understand better how little we

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Speaker 1: understand about it. No, you know, honestly this was unpredicted. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so we now understand better how little we understand about inflation. Well, okay,

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Speaker 1: guess chairman, very good in order to hear from the

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Speaker 1: person who is probably single handedly most responsible for handling

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Speaker 1: all of our fallout from this as a result of

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Speaker 1: our fallout from the government, and let's put this up there,

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Speaker 1: which was a single other takeaway, which is that you know,

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Speaker 1: we are probably just going to have to accept a

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Speaker 1: much higher risk of recession to combat inflation, and which

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Speaker 1: the chairman points to in this discussion on this panel

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Speaker 1: is looking back at the legacy of the nineteen eighties.

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Speaker 1: You know, he says he doesn't want to be compared

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Speaker 1: to Paul Volker, and sure he's not raising rates to

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Speaker 1: nineteen percent or anything like that, but you know, five

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Speaker 1: to nine percent, all of that looks very much in

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Speaker 1: the realm of possibility, and within that realm of possibility,

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Speaker 1: Crystal may not be a nineteen eighty one style recession,

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Speaker 1: but it could still be a you know, recession in

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Speaker 1: which we would have six, seven, eight, nine percent unemployment,

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Speaker 1: and given the supply chain problems that we still have

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Speaker 1: in many ways, you know, the nineteen eighties recession and

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Speaker 1: more was probably easier to deal with from a sheer

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Speaker 1: monetary perspective. Just putting us simply in a recession and

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Speaker 1: causing high unemployment and nuken consumer demand would maybe deal

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Speaker 1: with what one third of the problem with high prices

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Speaker 1: right now. So it's not the victory in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: to have a thirty percent reduction in the gas price

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Speaker 1: or the food price when seventy odd percent could come

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Speaker 1: from dealing with the supply side factors. But of course

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve has no say in any of that.

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Speaker 1: That's all up to our policy makers. Yeah, the cure

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Speaker 1: here could be worse than the disease, is basically what

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Speaker 1: you're saying. And there's any doubt whether or not we're

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Speaker 1: in a recession today. Chairman pal is determined to make

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Speaker 1: sure it's very clear to all of us that we're

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Speaker 1: actually in a recession in the future. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: hear more and more comments like this from him, you know,

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Speaker 1: saying we need to get wages down, when obviously, you know,

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Speaker 1: wages are already not keeping pace with inflation. We know

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Speaker 1: that the Federal Reserve has very limited tools ultimately deal

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Speaker 1: with inflation, and those tools do not actually target the

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Speaker 1: core most dominant reasons that we have inflation at this point.

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Speaker 1: Not only that, but you know something that I just

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Speaker 1: sort of learned about recently with some great writing from

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Speaker 1: Skanda and from the American Prospects is it's not just

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Speaker 1: that the Fed only can target demand. It's that actually

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Speaker 1: when they hike interest rates it means you make the

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Speaker 1: supply situation worse as well, which is incredibly logical when

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Speaker 1: you think about that. It makes it work less likely

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Speaker 1: that companies invest in building out the infrastructure and supply chain,

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Speaker 1: you know, working through those supply chainges and having the

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Speaker 1: cash available to do that. So you're actually having a

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Speaker 1: deally curious effect on one side, so very unclear that

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Speaker 1: their actions are going to solve the problem they are

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Speaker 1: intended to solve, and there is some recognition of that

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Speaker 1: from some dissident voices in Washington. Let's put this last

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Speaker 1: part up on the screen here. Politico has an art

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Speaker 1: play say no More Whispers. Recession talk surges in Washington,

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Speaker 1: and they quote, you know, I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 1: the piece is just an acknowledgment that everybody in Washington,

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Speaker 1: up to the administration and up to Bude now acknowledges

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Speaker 1: this is likely a reality that we're headed towards. I

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Speaker 1: think it is very unlikely we can avoid it, since

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Speaker 1: by some metrics we're already in it. But they do

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Speaker 1: quote a couple of people who say, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: going about this the wrong way. They have a Josh Bivins,

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Speaker 1: who's the research diructor at Economic Policy instance left leaning

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Speaker 1: policy Institute. He says, everyone's screaming that inflation, but people

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Speaker 1: would really hate a recession too. The mood could get

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Speaker 1: a lot more sour. You also have cenator Elizabeth Warren,

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Speaker 1: who I think has been good at understanding the risks

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Speaker 1: and the type of solutions that could actually meet the moment.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously I have my critiques of her in general,

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Speaker 1: but I give credit where credit is due. She says,

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Speaker 1: inflation is like an illness, and medicine needs to be

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Speaker 1: tailored to the specific problem, otherwise you could make things

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Speaker 1: a lot worse. And right now the FED has no

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Speaker 1: control over the main driver of rising prices, so I

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Speaker 1: think she's exactly correct. You know, there's Obviously people are

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Speaker 1: suffering because of inflation. But the only tool that either

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Speaker 1: Biden or the Republicans are really pointing to to get

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Speaker 1: this under control means pain for you. No guarantee that

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Speaker 1: it does get inflation under control, and you know, corporate

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Speaker 1: profit and we're going to talk about this later in

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Speaker 1: the show. Corporate profiteers let off the hook. No dealing

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Speaker 1: with the underlying supply chain issues, you know, dealing with

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Speaker 1: you know, our continued role and pushing the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's a really really ugly landscape ahead of

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Speaker 1: working class people. I couldn't agree more. I think the

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Speaker 1: thing is about Biden is there is a way, I think,

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Speaker 1: politically to get out of this. You know, we've talked

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Speaker 1: about it, to acknowledge the pain, but over and over again,

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Speaker 1: it's on gas. You know, I'm taking my whole monologue

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Speaker 1: on this. As long as it takes, is what he says,

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Speaker 1: in order to restore our aims in Ukraine? What does

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Speaker 1: that mean? As long as it takes, as long as

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Speaker 1: what takes, what are the actual aim So people are continuing,

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Speaker 1: but what are we doing here? Because you know, things

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Speaker 1: are not going so well on the battlefield right now.

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Speaker 1: Also just acknowledge this is not the strongest job market

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Speaker 1: since World War Two. Again, it comes back to the

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Speaker 1: point I was making the earlier block, which is technicalities

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Speaker 1: and dealing with well, the economists say that we're not

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Speaker 1: technicis Listen, it is plain as day people are fed

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Speaker 1: up with higher prices. So talk about it and then

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Speaker 1: do something. And the do something part is where on

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Speaker 1: July fourth the guy tweets out to the gas companies

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Speaker 1: and ask them to please bring down the price Like

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Speaker 1: that is not any semblance of a plan whatsoever. Even

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Speaker 1: on meat packing, you know, over and over again we've

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Speaker 1: talked about all the vertically integrated supply problems. We've had

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Speaker 1: people on our show, ranchers and others who point to

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Speaker 1: the gouging that takes place in the industry. There's no

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Speaker 1: roundtable that's happening at the White House, just on a

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Speaker 1: day to day basis. I really just question what the

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Speaker 1: hell he's doing. And I was particularly embarrassed. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if he saw this, but at the NATO summit,

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Speaker 1: Emmanuel Macrone and the NATO chair Jenn Stoltenberg had to

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Speaker 1: beg Biden. They're like, hey, you need to start talking

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Speaker 1: about oil supply as in, like, you know, the United

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Speaker 1: States is the largest country on Earth, or the largest

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Speaker 1: economic power on Earth, and in the NATO Alliance should

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Speaker 1: probably start trying to deal with some of the supply issues.

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Speaker 1: It's like even they are looking at us and can't

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Speaker 1: even believe that the administration has its approach right now

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Speaker 1: to the global economy. We shouldn't forget. Also, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Western powers in Europe are getting hammered by frankly

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Speaker 1: even higher inflation in some areas of their lives. So

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Speaker 1: this is a global phenomenon. As you always point to,

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Speaker 1: like what is the most correlative thing to a social

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Speaker 1: unrest bread prices, Like all throughout it, all the way

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Speaker 1: back until the Roman Empire, we've had bread riots. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we are very much walking ourselves into the same situation.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to a very very sad story about

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Speaker 1: what happened in Highland Park yesterday July fourth. There was

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Speaker 1: a Chicago suburb, there was a July fourth parade, and

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Speaker 1: there was a mass shooting by a particularly deranged individual.

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Speaker 1: I just want to give a warning here. We are

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Speaker 1: going to play some video about what it was like

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Speaker 1: whenever the shooting broke out, So it's sensitive warning. If

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Speaker 1: you have kids or anything like that, make sure they're

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Speaker 1: not in the room for this. Let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: take a listen to what it was like on the

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Speaker 1: ground whenever the shooting broke out. We're going to play

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Speaker 1: a couple of seconds of this. Yeah, I mean, krizly,

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Speaker 1: you can just see people run. I can't even imagine

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Speaker 1: you're with your family. You know, you got a stroller,

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Speaker 1: people strewn about, running away in the middle of what's

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Speaker 1: supposed to be like a joyous occasion day off Birth

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Speaker 1: of the country. It's just so obviously it never gets

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Speaker 1: easy in order to do these things, and just for

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Speaker 1: pure details is put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: We got six dead in this mass shooting so far,

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Speaker 1: and a number of people who are in the hospital

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Speaker 1: up to fifteen at the last count that we said.

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Speaker 1: So right now, what the officials say is they've recovered

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Speaker 1: a high powered rifle from the scene. They say the

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Speaker 1: shooting quote appears to be completely random. We don't yet

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Speaker 1: know a lot about this alleged shooter slash person of

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Speaker 1: interest who's been taken into custody. He was taken into

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Speaker 1: custody last night six thirty pm local time. There was

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Speaker 1: not a shootout or anything like that. We're not going

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Speaker 1: to say his name here today in order to deny

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Speaker 1: some of the glory that obviously was being sought. But

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Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put this next part up on

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Speaker 1: the screen. Looking at a grade. I mean this President Biden.

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Speaker 1: He's saying, I'm monitoring the situation closely, not going to

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Speaker 1: give up the fight on gun violence. Now, obviously, you know,

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Speaker 1: to have that on the birth of the country and

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Speaker 1: a national holiday is just completely horrific. So the next

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Speaker 1: one up there, which is that from what we know

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Speaker 1: about this gentleman so far, he appears to be a

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Speaker 1: real freak, and I think that that is putting it lightly.

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Speaker 1: Has released several videos over the years glorifying mass shootings,

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Speaker 1: including cartoons. He had tattoos, Oliver's face and his hair

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Speaker 1: was dyed and various colors. Clears to have been a

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Speaker 1: complete and a total misfit. And really what they're showing

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Speaker 1: here is that for years he's been wrapping and producing videos.

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Speaker 1: He even has millions of plays. Actually, Crystal on Spotify

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Speaker 1: had a discord server in which fans and others were

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Speaker 1: posting some really dranged content. Apparently. The last thing that

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Speaker 1: he even posted in his discord was a video of

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Speaker 1: a beheading. So, look, this is somebody who clearly glorified

432
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 1: violence and exhibited like every you know, I mean, I

433
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 1: don't know what it takes in order to flag somebody.

434
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 1: Illinois does have a red flag law apparently, and this

435
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: is a guy who's producing videos where you know, he

436
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 1: literally is mimicking mass shootings and glorifying violence on this

437
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: So we don't know the exact motivation clearly, and I

438
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 1: perused his Twitter feed and looked at some of his

439
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 1: past posts. But an extraordinarily deranged individual responsible now for

440
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 1: six deaths. Luckily he has been taken into custody and

441
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: there was no shootout or anything with police officers. But yeah,

442
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: I mean, to have it on July fourth is just

443
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: is really just so terrible. It's so difficult to even

444
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: talk about it is. And I mean, it's a pattern

445
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: of you just feel like where where's safe? You know,

446
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,439
Speaker 1: the schools aren't safe, the shopping the supermarkets not safe,

447
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 1: the shopping malls not safe, the streets aren't safe. The

448
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 1: July fourth parade isn't safe. It's us devastating for the

449
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: families who have been impacted here, and what they described

450
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: is apparently he was on the roof just you know,

451
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: sniper style taking people out absolute you know, a terrorist

452
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: act really to strike here in the heart of not

453
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: only those people and take precious lives, but I think

454
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: of the country as a whole. To your point about

455
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: what a deranged psychopath obsessed with murder and violence this

456
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 1: dude was. He released a track on October fifteenth, twenty

457
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: twenty one, that seemed to indicate there was some life

458
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 1: defining event act that was beyond his ability to stop.

459
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 1: It includes drawings of someone aiming a rifle at another person.

460
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: It also includes an image of a newspaper clipping about

461
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 1: Lee Harvey Oswald, who, of course you know, accurdiing official

462
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: merative anyway, assassinated JFK at a parade, and another image

463
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: of a victim shop with blood spring from the body.

464
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: As you said, so, he has his own discord, and

465
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 1: I guess people would post a lot of like super

466
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 1: nihilistic some political like nihilistic political memes. There. There was

467
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: a different board that he posted the video of the beheading,

468
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: and that board that he was a frequent poster on

469
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 1: was explicitly dedicated to violent images of murder, suicide, and death.

470
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: So this is a seems to be a completely deranged person.

471
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: At least to this point, we don't know of any

472
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 1: sort of political motivation. His family was well known in

473
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,959
Speaker 1: the town. Actually his dad ran for mayor and lost

474
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: in the town. And you know, it's just it's just horrific.

475
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: It's just absolutely horrific. There's nothing else you can say.

476
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: And I don't know what you do about someone like

477
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: this who's just clearly obsessed with violence and death. The

478
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 1: one political point I do want to make is there

479
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: was this instant obsession with figuring out what sort of

480
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: politically this murderer might have, and he's like dueling debates

481
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 1: online over whether he was, you know what, his political Like. Okay,

482
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 1: if it comes out this was politically motivated, then we

483
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: can have that discussion. But I hate the instinct always

484
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: to try to score points like, oh, he was one

485
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: of you guys. So this has to do with you know,

486
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: all of this political category being evil or no, no,

487
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 1: he was actually one of you guys. It's just another

488
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: time where instantly these things happen and people want to

489
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 1: try to score points for their like political partisan team

490
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: rather than actually getting to the bottom of what happened. Yeah,

491
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: while people are literally still in the hospital and there's

492
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: blood still in the street, I'll make one political point.

493
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: Broke out this morning. We don't have a tear sheet

494
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 1: for this. But apparently, and this is admitted now, this

495
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 1: shooter was known to law enforcement. So there remains questions,

496
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 1: as usual with Buffalo, with many of these other people

497
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: and their interactions with law enforcement in the past. Like

498
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: I said, Illinois does have red flag laws that are

499
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 1: on the books. The gentleman's father apparently had admitted to

500
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 1: close associates that his son had quote emotional problems, which

501
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 1: is on video you could see it. So at neighbors

502
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 1: and others describe him as writing an electric scooter around

503
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 1: blaring music, seeking attention. So this is a clearly deranged

504
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 1: person who's basically making it known to the world online

505
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: and clearly racked up millions of views with this type

506
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: of content. And now we know that he was also

507
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: quote unquote known to law enforcement by their own admission.

508
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: This is from reporting in the Chicago suburbs from their

509
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: local news outlets, And I think there remains to be

510
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: a lot of investigation as to how exactly all of

511
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: this played out and why previous instances didn't maybe he

512
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: had been arrested before, you know, why hadn't been flagged,

513
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: Why hadn't they done anything about it in the past.

514
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 1: So I think all of that is going to remain

515
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: to come to light. And like you said, I mean,

516
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 1: you know that type of discussion, it doesn't help anybody, unfortunately,

517
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: So that level of obsession online is never there. It's

518
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: not oh, instead it's like, oh, did he tweet Maga

519
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: or whatever? I mean to buy all accounts. He seems

520
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: to have been a shit poster to the highest degree

521
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: and just a deep nihilist. So I don't really think

522
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 1: that's aligned with any real political movement outside of we

523
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 1: have a deep sickness, you know, in the country. And

524
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 1: it also just shows you some of the deranged depths

525
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: on which a lot of people on the Internet get

526
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: up to. So you know, if you're out there and

527
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: you're you know, looking at this type of content because

528
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: you think it's funny, you know, there are real consequences

529
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: to some of these things, and I just think it's

530
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: on everybody to look at that and also to you know,

531
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 1: remain and report things to law enforcement whenever there's such

532
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: obvious red flags, are producing videos where you're, like you said,

533
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: life defining events and glorifying Lee Harvey Oswald and drawing

534
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 1: cartoons of people getting killed. This doesn't think a genius

535
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: to figure out what's going on there, mister Biden and

536
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 1: his administration, which is also suffering from a lack of confidence.

537
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: Some pretty extraordinary reporting coming out now of mainstream outlet,

538
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: And before I show it to you, I really think

539
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: that this comes at a moment when even normy liberals

540
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 1: who are like vote blue no matter who, and you

541
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: got to back up the Democratic Party brand because the

542
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 1: Republicans are so much worse even they are seeing the

543
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 1: failures of this administration. I really do think it's tied

544
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 1: to the overturning of Roe versus Wade and just how

545
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 1: manifestly unprepared they were, how lackluster the response has been.

546
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: In spite of having many weeks of warning and ability

547
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: to sort of get their ducks in the row and

548
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 1: know what the response was, they've basically done sort of

549
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 1: less than nothing. And we'll get to that in a minute.

550
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: But I think that's the context through which this reporting

551
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: makes some sense. And why it's coming right now. So

552
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: the CNN piece is quite astonished. I'm going to read

553
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: you a good bit of this, including the lead, which

554
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: is there's a lot going on here. So they say

555
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: Actress Deborah Messing was fed up. The former Will and

556
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: Grace Starr was among dozens of celebrity Democratic supporters and

557
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: activists who joined a call with the White House AIDS

558
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: last Monday to discuss the overturning of Roe versus Weight.

559
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: The mood was fatalistic, according to people on the call,

560
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: which was also co organized by the advocacy group Build

561
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: Back Better Together. Messing said she had gotten Biden elected

562
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 1: and wanted to know why she was being asked to

563
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: do anything at all, yelling that there didn't even seem

564
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: to be a point to voting. Others wondered why the

565
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: call was happening that afternoon. What did they get? They

566
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: just got a follow up email with some basic talking

567
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: points and suggestions of Biden's speech clips to share on TikTok.

568
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: So they use that as the lead to lay out

569
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: this article of just how disenchanted regular Democrats and people

570
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: within Congress and within the White House are becoming with

571
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: the Biden administration, they say. Top Democrats complain the president

572
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 1: isn't acting with or perhaps even capable of the urgency

573
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: the moment demands. Rudderless, aimless and hopeless is how one

574
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: member of Congress described the White House. Two dozen leading

575
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 1: Democratic politicians and opera. It is several within the West Wing.

576
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: So in the White House themselves tel CNN, they feel

577
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: this goes deeper than questions of ideology and posture. Instead,

578
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: they say it gets to questions of basic management. They

579
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: go on to detail some of the specific frustrations with

580
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: the lack of response and lack of ability to respond

581
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: to the overturning of Roe versus Wade. But put this

582
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 1: next piece up. The Washington Post kind of had a

583
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: follow up piece to this their headline as Democratic criticisms

584
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: of Biden get louder and broader. The part that they

585
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: really emphasize here, Sager, is that piece about how there

586
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: is a lack of managerial competence, that it's not just

587
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: the ideology, but it's the questions of basic management. Because

588
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 1: as we've been saying here for quite some time, you know,

589
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: Biden's central promise wasn't you're going to get the policy

590
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: of your dreams and desires. It wasn't that he's going

591
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: to be this transformational figure. It was the adults are

592
00:30:58,040 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 1: going to be back in charge, and we're going to

593
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: have basic competence operating at the White House again. And

594
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 1: so when you see even that is completely falling apart,

595
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: and predictably, by the way, if you followed what this

596
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: man's career has been like in Washington and what his

597
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: management style has been. Now that this is being openly

598
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,479
Speaker 1: acknowledged in the papers, you know, CNN, Washington Post, New

599
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 1: York Times has had similar stories to this. This is

600
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: a dire moment for this process. This is not good

601
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: for the president. He's had a kind of a leak

602
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 1: proof White House, so to speak. A lot of his

603
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: people weren't coming out against him, but even his own

604
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 1: staff is pretty disgusted with his managing and handling of

605
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: all this. And I think it's bigger than Biden. I

606
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 1: don't think it's just Biden. I think it's the entire

607
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: democratic leadership. I was reading a really interesting story actually

608
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: in Vox this morning, which is that there are a

609
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: lot of staffers at the level who've been working on

610
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 1: abortion now for a decade, and they're like, okay, look,

611
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: we don't have the votes on Roe versus Wade. You

612
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: know what we do have. We've got votes on rape

613
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: and incests exceptions. We've got vote or we could put

614
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: Republicans at a very tough spot, you know, ninety ten votes, yeah,

615
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 1: on many of these things, and we're not taking any

616
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: of them. And they point to the fact that if

617
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: you look in the past, they voted on pre existing

618
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: conditions before they voted on you carve out pieces of

619
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: their broader legislation, because they understood that they could codify that.

620
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: And Republicans are shocked that they're not trying to put

621
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: their bosses in any of these positions. Why is the

622
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 1: president not doing that? So? Executive orders is another one.

623
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: What really struck me was just the sheer lack of

624
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: competence where they didn't have a statement or action ready

625
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: to go on the day the decision came because they

626
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: believed their White House counsel who assured them he's like, hey,

627
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: don't worry, the decision is not coming today. First of all,

628
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: how would he even know? Second, you know, you should

629
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: probably just plan just in case. Every single day. We

630
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: certainly were, you know, the entire time didn't know if

631
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: it was going to come, had a preparate just in case,

632
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: you know, we knew what to look for, et cetera.

633
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: You and I were expecting the decision on that day.

634
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 1: I mean, that's why you were ready to go and

635
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: do a segment and get it out in the world. So, like,

636
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: how is it that we know more than the White House? No,

637
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: I knew there was a fifty I was like, oh, well,

638
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: I think it'll probably remaining. It had to be one

639
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: of like the next few days. So it's not rocket science, listen,

640
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: I you know, it just shows you. They quote somebody

641
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: saying it's like throwing spaghetti at the wall, and just

642
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: over and over again. You're seeing a lot of people

643
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: in the administration who are just really disgusted because abortion.

644
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: It just that's you know, the normy lib obviously, that's

645
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: what they're going to care about the most. But gas

646
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: is a good one. You know, what is beyond shouting

647
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: at gas stations and saying please bring down this price?

648
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:31,239
Speaker 1: Like what have you done on inflation? On food? I mean,

649
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: so many of the pressing issues we're looking We're gonna

650
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: talk soon about polling later on in the show. But

651
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: if you look further at the number one thing Americans

652
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: care about. It's thirty three percent is inflation, twenty something

653
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: percent is the economy, which is code for inflation. And

654
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: I think number three is like food prices, which is

655
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: also inflation. So we're talking here about sixty percent of

656
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: people are like, Hey, I care about inflation. I want

657
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 1: you to talk about inflation. I want you to do

658
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: something about inflation. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Where is the price?

659
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: What is he doing all day? It just seems completely feckless.

660
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: He's either a broad you know, unable to articulate any

661
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,879
Speaker 1: sort of vision both for the world and for us

662
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: here at home. And he's foundering. I mean, I don't

663
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: think we can overstate just how badly he's doing. And

664
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: this all is going to culminate in the twenty twenty

665
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: four election. He's about to get shellacked, you know, probably probably,

666
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: And you're doing a midtermoth on this in the midterms,

667
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: but regardless, it's going to not be a good showing.

668
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: He has to come out swinging the presidents in the

669
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: past who've been able to win despite that, Obama and

670
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 1: Clinton really mounted a full force campaign in the last

671
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: two years of their first terms, in order to try

672
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: and get re elected. I don't see a lot of

673
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 1: that happening here, which is pattern. Look, there's no doubt

674
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: for voters. Number one issue is economy, economy, economy, There's

675
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: just no doubt about that. But I do think the

676
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 1: abortion issue is really key for this sort of like

677
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: normy Dems and liberal press turning on Biden because this

678
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: is the issue that they have offered as like, this

679
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 1: is the reason why you vote for Democrats, to protect

680
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: women's right to choose, like this has been bedrock of

681
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 1: democratic politics for at least the past decade. And so

682
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: you know, first of all, when this happened, there was

683
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 1: an instant realization of when the league came out, even

684
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: there was this instant realization of wait a second, Republicans

685
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: were not quiet about what their goals were here. You

686
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: knew this was where we were going. You've had opportunities

687
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 1: in the past where you had majorities and supermajorities to

688
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 1: codify this to prevent this exact eventuality, and for some

689
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 1: reason you didn't do it. And then even okay, so

690
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: the leak comes out and then they've got seven weeks

691
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,479
Speaker 1: to figure out, all right, this is coming, we see

692
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,879
Speaker 1: it you know, we've got time to prepare. We can

693
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 1: work with the pro choice groups, figure out what our

694
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: response is going to be, figure out some legislation, we

695
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: can post how to divide the GOP caucus, which is

696
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: like the most obvious no brainer of all time. And

697
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: instead they're caught complete, letely flat footed, to the point that, Yeah,

698
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: the person who's like the point person on responding was

699
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: like out getting coffee when the decision came down, no

700
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 1: response really prepared. Still here we are, however, many days

701
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 1: and weeks later, and they still haven't really figured out

702
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: what it is they're going to do. We had some

703
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: conference called with governors and oh, we're going to come up,

704
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 1: you know, listen to them and get their ideas, and

705
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 1: then we're going to come back to you. Still haven't

706
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: seen any of those sort of action items come out

707
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: of that meeting. So I think the fact that on

708
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: this issue that has been really central to the democratic

709
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: message and ideology, that they have so clearly failed to

710
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 1: meet the moment, I do think it's been sort of

711
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 1: eye opening for a lot of normy Democrats and the

712
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: liberal press and has given them permission to take the

713
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: gloves off and criticize in a way that they normally don't.

714
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: I think the main thing is, and you're going to

715
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: be the major expert, is is to see Democratic politicians

716
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: begin to turn against him at the state level is very,

717
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: very significant. We just have a couple of poll numbers

718
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 1: to show you that is the backdrop for all of

719
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: this Monmouth poll that just came out. Put this up

720
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 1: on the screen. We've got right direction for the country

721
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:16,439
Speaker 1: ten percent, wrong track eighty eight percent. That's as close

722
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 1: to unanimous as you can possibly get. Biden's job approval rating.

723
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: Put the next piece up now, seeking to a new

724
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 1: low in this particular poll, thirty six percent approval rating,

725
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:31,240
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent disapproved. Look at that curve. It's sane,

726
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: it's bad, and I mean the thing for him is

727
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: obviously the Republicans united in opposition to him. He's lost,

728
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: you know, an overwhelming majority of independence, but he also

729
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: has among self identified Democrats, especially young ones, who also

730
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 1: are completely disenchanted. Now those aren't people who are going

731
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,919
Speaker 1: to vote for Republicans, but are they going to show

732
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: up in the midterms? You know, this is this is

733
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: a pretty devastating state of affairs, current presidence, total disaster

734
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: and the right track wrong track, which you know is

735
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: the one that I would focus on the most. At

736
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:06,319
Speaker 1: eighty eight percent wrong track ten percent right direction, that

737
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 1: just shows you that they're in serious issue with the

738
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: feeling of chaos. And that's what was getting to you

739
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: about gas and inflation. More. Everything is chaotic. We're talking

740
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: about the airline, airlines not functioning properly. It's like, is

741
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 1: anything in American life working at all? And the answer

742
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: is pretty much no. I mean, beyond what is things

743
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: are expensive. You are seeing the businesses are in a

744
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: very strange position because many of them at the same

745
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 1: time have to pay very much for workers, which you know,

746
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: I think that's a good thing, but also you know,

747
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,919
Speaker 1: from an inflation perspective, the smallest ones are getting hammered. Also,

748
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: we're seeing reductions in consumer spending. We could very likely

749
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: be in a recession. GDP is contracting. But again we

750
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday. I was like, look, pull

751
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 1: away from the technical stuff. Everything is just too expensive

752
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: and everything is chaotic, and that's why the wrong track

753
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: number is going to be where it is. I think

754
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: it's a huge, huge problem for the for the Democrats.

755
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: But at the same time, you know, the generic ballot

756
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 1: polling within this only showed the Democrats down by two percent,

757
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 1: so it's not necessarily that people will say they'll automatically

758
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: vote for Republicans. There's still a two percent margin. Again,

759
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: you know, Crystal Tzaara Ruill probably add like five because

760
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: they generally underestimate Republicans support in all these polls basically

761
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: since twenty sixteen, So I don't know where things actually stand.

762
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 1: You Guv's polling moved eight points on generic ballot towards

763
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: Democrats in one week. So this is what the subject

764
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: of my monologue like. The only thing that could possibly

765
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: save Democrats from complete disaster is the Republicans who are

766
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 1: doing their damnedest to prove to people that they are

767
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: completely unfit to govern and that their views are like

768
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 1: wildly outside of the mainstream, and that they've lost all

769
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: touch with reality. So that's the only thing that the

770
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 1: Democrats have going for them is that the alternative alternative

771
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: is you know, bizarre and absurd. But you know, I

772
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: think back to Biden and the sense in the country

773
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: right now, have this sense of just sort of perman

774
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: decline that a seta in coupled with Biden's mission to

775
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 1: defeat any sort of political imagination that you might have. Yes,

776
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: So you know, his response to everything is we can't

777
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 1: do that because of X, because of why that's not possible.

778
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 1: It's you know, there's basically nothing we can do about anything.

779
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: That's his whole political ideology seems to be centered around

780
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: the idea of like, well, there's not really anything we

781
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 1: can do about any of this. So when you couple

782
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: that hopelessness with a situation that seems to be deteriorating

783
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 1: in basic ways all the time, yeah, you're going to

784
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 1: end up with ninety percent of the country saying we're

785
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 1: on the wrong track. Let's go and talk about the airline.

786
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: So this is a very important story and very interesting

787
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: as well. So there's an ongoing war, as we've talked about,

788
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 1: between the airlines who are blaming the FAA, and then

789
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: the FAA, who is saying the airlines are completely full

790
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: of it. And all of this is obviously resulting in

791
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: these massive flight cancelations. So let's go ahead. Actually, let's

792
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 1: put C two up there first, please control room, because

793
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 1: here's what's happening, which is that United Airlines came out

794
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: and put out a statement saying that they actually what

795
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 1: has happened is that they're blaming the FAA for not

796
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 1: having enough staffing resources. They said that travel woes are

797
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: continued to expect. They told their staff they're going to

798
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: have more summer problems because air traffic controllers can't handle

799
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 1: the amount of flights and that that issue is causing

800
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: flight disruption. However, they got fact checked almost immediately in

801
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,919
Speaker 1: real time. So let's throw this up. There c one

802
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 1: please where the FAA basically smacked them down hard. Here's

803
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 1: what they said. The Department of the FAA appreciate airlines

804
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: taking steps to improve informants, but clearly more needs to

805
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: be done to reduce cancelations. It is unfortunate to see

806
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 1: United airlines conflate weather related air traffic control measures with

807
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 1: air traffic control staffing, which would deceptively imply that a

808
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 1: majority of those situations are the result of FAA staffing.

809
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 1: The reality is that multiple overlapping factors have affected the system,

810
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 1: including airline staffing, weather, high volume, and the air traffic

811
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: control capacity. But the majority of delays and cancelations are

812
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 1: not because of staffing at the FAA. On July third

813
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 1: and fourth, there were no FAA staffing related days at

814
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: all nationwide. Yet airlines canceled eleven hundred flights in those

815
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 1: two days, a quarter of which were United Airlines flights.

816
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: We will continue to meet our responsibility to hold airlines accountable,

817
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So they got fact checked and

818
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 1: smacked in real time by the FAA, and it just

819
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 1: shows you there's a high level bisical proxy war playing

820
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: out United in American and all the other major terrors.

821
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 1: They don't want the wrath that comes from consumers when

822
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: they're canceling thousands and thousands of flights per day. It's

823
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: total chaos right now in airports also, like I was

824
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 1: talking about earlier bag check and know that nothing is

825
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,479
Speaker 1: working properly in these places, and they have been trying

826
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: to blame the FAA now for days. It's good to

827
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 1: see actually the fa actually come out and be like, no,

828
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 1: that's actually completely not true, because United is trying to

829
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 1: tell both it's stockholders and it's staff it's not their fault,

830
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: when look, it's very clear here they have staffing problems

831
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 1: that they are a result of their own making, from

832
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 1: forced retirements, that they took COVID money in order to

833
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 1: push people out, and also they are booking the money

834
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: on flights that they basically know they can't fulfill, and

835
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 1: so from a cancelation and legal perspective, it's chaos. And

836
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 1: of course, outside of whoever this FAA guy is who

837
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: put out the statement, I don't see anything else from

838
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: the Biden administration. Indeed, Pete, what's going on? What's going on? Pete? Yeah,

839
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: because on top of all of that, the cancelations, and

840
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 1: I mean they really they needed to pair back their

841
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 1: summer schedule. They don't have the staff to fly all

842
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 1: of the flights that they put out to the public

843
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: as available to book. That's the crux of the problem,

844
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: through their own choices after we bailed them out. That's

845
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 1: the real major issue here is they need to pair

846
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 1: back their schedule and they were unwilling to do it

847
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 1: because they're worried about their bottom line profit margins. But

848
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 1: then to add insult to injury, when people are getting

849
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 1: canceled and they're entitled to an actual cash refund, the

850
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 1: airlines have also been caught trying to coerce people into

851
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 1: taking miles instead of the cash that they're entitled to,

852
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: basically trying to snow them which was the subject of

853
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: Pete's little travel agent tip, like here's how you calculate

854
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 1: air miles. So in terms of Pete and what he

855
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 1: could do, we've covered here before. Senator Sanders put out

856
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 1: a very specific proposal of fines that they could levy

857
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: on the airlines when they cancel and delay passengers that

858
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 1: would have some bite and discourage them from continuing to

859
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: operate in what is really an unconsciable manner. Pete has

860
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 1: now responded to that proposal. He says, quote, he hasn't

861
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 1: seen all the math come back on Senator sanders proposal

862
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 1: to find airlines for canceling and delaying flights that they

863
00:44:56,160 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: knew could not be staffed. So he's still dodging in reflecting.

864
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: You'll recall about a month ago he gathered all the

865
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 1: airline CEOs together and said, you better cut it down.

866
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: If July fourth weekend isn't good, there's going to be

867
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna look at this again and we're

868
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 1: going to see how it goes. Well, the stats came back,

869
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: it was a disaster, and still he's you know, doing

870
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 1: basically nothing. Yeah, it's it is a pathetic state of affairs.

871
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 1: So well, As much as I enjoy seeing the airlines

872
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 1: sort of like fact checked and called out like this,

873
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 1: I would really prefer to see them actually held to

874
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,919
Speaker 1: account and somebody with some power do something to curb

875
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 1: their behavior which has just created total chaos for travelers

876
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 1: this summer. Well jazz a reminder, I mean, you know,

877
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 1: Buddhaja shows run the FAA, and I've said this, you

878
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: know it, Look call the airlines bluff, which is that,

879
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: get some air traffic control guys from the National Guard

880
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: or whatever, put them in the put them in the towers,

881
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 1: and just say fine, okay, here's all the staffing that

882
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 1: you need. I suspect and from everything I've read so far,

883
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: it does not seem that the airlines are telling the

884
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 1: truth here on why exactly all of this is happening.

885
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 1: And really what it is is that the cancelations are

886
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: coming a nightmare for connecting travel, which is snarling things

887
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 1: even further because Newark Airport, which apparently the most delayed

888
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 1: airport in the country, makes sense every time I've flown

889
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: on anywhere in the New York region New York nightmare anyway,

890
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: So they have had to preemptively cancel flights. But part

891
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 1: of the problem is whenever you cancel flights out of

892
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: a hub, then you are going to commiss your connecting flights.

893
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: And then also there's been chaos not just here but

894
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: also abroad Amsterdam, Lisbon, Frankfort, and Dublin. We're also seeing

895
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: major delays and cancelations as a result of similar staffing

896
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 1: related problems. Because all this stuff cascades globally and you

897
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 1: consider that and there's just nobody who has their hand

898
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 1: on the system trying to guide it in the right direction,

899
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 1: which just leaves it basically up to the airlines. You

900
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 1: can rebook a flight, cancel the flight if they need to,

901
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 1: so like yeah, like you said, we've got the fa

902
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 1: it's good that they're fact checking them in real time,

903
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 1: but they have limited authority beyond the executive branch to

904
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: actually swoop in and do something about this. Fine, you know,

905
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: Sanders proposal goes too far. Do something. I mean, I

906
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 1: don't know why you can't do a quarter of it.

907
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: Maybe it would help, Like there's no plan right now. Also,

908
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: people reporting major weight times at a lot of these

909
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 1: airports also, not just because of staffing issues, but obviously

910
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: summer travelers bounce back. We're almost basically at pre pandemic

911
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: flight level. I have a flight later today, By the way,

912
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 1: I'll report back to see how it goes. Now, what

913
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: they're saying is that weight times are sky high. Also

914
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 1: in terms of the way that the airlines are running

915
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: their boarding pass system and more they're making people get

916
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: paper boarding passes in some case because they're refusing to

917
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 1: assign seats. That's causing even more weight times of counters

918
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: where there's limited amounts. So it's a real mess right now.

919
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 1: I feel for people who are traveling. Our friend Iromy

920
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 1: made a really good point to me that I want

921
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 1: to share with you, which is he's like, you know

922
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 1: how we look at other countries that have these systems

923
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 1: of patronage where you know, the brother cousin, the lackey whatever,

924
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 1: and it's like a sign of a totally corrupt, like

925
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 1: failing government. These people are put into jobs that you

926
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 1: know they have no business doing because no one actually

927
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 1: cares about good governance. They just care about holding on

928
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: to power and their access to money. Pete is like

929
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,799
Speaker 1: the same thing. Yes, he remember when he was being

930
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 1: considered for what they floated like, oh, you could have

931
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 1: the Office of Management and Budget and he's like, nah,

932
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 1: that's not high pro I want this one. It was

933
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 1: the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and he wasn't even

934
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 1: a good mayor. You know, we talked about that in

935
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 1: our show exactly. The people in South Bend were like,

936
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: this is a shit mayor. You know, we have potholes

937
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: all over the problem, we have police force issues like correct, well,

938
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,200
Speaker 1: it's a tiny town. I have no disrespect, but now

939
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,240
Speaker 1: here we are. And it turns out that this position

940
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 1: that he was given as the you know, as the

941
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: payment for dropping out of the Democratic primary at the

942
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 1: time that Obama told him to. Oh, it turns out

943
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: this job actually matters, that it actually is important, and

944
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 1: then it has real responsibility, and then it has a

945
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 1: direct impact on the quality of life in the country.

946
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: And we've put this like, you know, McKinsey flunky who

947
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 1: can't c beyond like, who has no idea how to

948
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 1: actually govern and do the job in charge. So you know,

949
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 1: it is the exact same type of thing where no

950
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 1: one was under any illusion that may Or Pete was

951
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 1: qualified for this job. He got it purely as payback

952
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 1: and patronage. Remember when Biden ran that ad during the

953
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 1: primary making fun of Pete for like having no idea

954
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 1: about any sort of infrastructure productknocking, and for like, oh

955
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,600
Speaker 1: you put lights on the bridge way to go, mayor Pete,

956
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 1: and then that's the guy you put in charge. Yeah, listen,

957
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: it's pretty selling rough times out there right now. We

958
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 1: are seeing thousands of flies. Fifteen percent right now of

959
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,359
Speaker 1: summer flights are currently on track to be canceled, and

960
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 1: twelve percent of departures, like I said, out of Newark

961
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 1: alone are being cut. And Newark is one of the

962
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: biggest hubs in the US, you know. And fourth the

963
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 1: July weekend there were eight point eight million passengers who

964
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 1: were screened by TSA. I mean that's you know, that's

965
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 1: a big part of the adult population in the US. Yeah,

966
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 1: on a plane over the weekend and faced all sorts

967
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 1: of these problems. So it's just like gas, it's going

968
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 1: to touch many many times you're traveling with kids. Oh

969
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: my god, it's such a nice many delays and inflations

970
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: joining us now. Rory Johnson, he's an energy analyst and

971
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 1: he's the writer over at Commodity Context on substack. I

972
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: hope you guys go ahead and subscribe. Love a link

973
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,879
Speaker 1: down there in the description welcome back to the show, Rory.

974
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 1: We really appreciate it. Thanks much for having me back on,

975
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: of course. Man, Okay, So there's wild swings going on

976
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 1: in oil. First it's down. Then people are saying hit

977
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: sixty five a barrel, as you were telling me right

978
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: before you came on. Now the price has gone up.

979
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 1: What is going on with oil, Rory? Why is it?

980
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 1: Why are there all these crazy swings? This Wall Street

981
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 1: is a supply break it down for us. Yeah, so

982
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: I think, you know, so, just to put in context

983
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: for people that don't follow the market on a regular basis,

984
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: the last month has been pretty terrible for crude oil.

985
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:54,439
Speaker 1: It was as high on a WTI basis in early

986
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 1: June at one hundred and twenty bucks. Then it foul

987
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 1: kind of a couple of different times, and then two

988
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:03,240
Speaker 1: days ago on Tuesday, it just completely collapsed, the third

989
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 1: largest daily decline in the market's history. So we're in

990
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 1: this extreme volatility moment. I think there's this open question

991
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 1: is you know what's causing it? And I think it's

992
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 1: a couple of things, but primarily the market is, you know,

993
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 1: volatile because the fundamentals, frankly and our understanding and outlook

994
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,800
Speaker 1: for the fundamentals are very, very volatile. We're jumping between

995
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: these kind of extremely you know, oversupplied moments in the

996
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 1: early and early pandemic. Two. We've been in this chronic

997
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 1: undersupply environment for about the past eighteen months or so,

998
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: and inventories have come down at a record fast paced.

999
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 1: So we're in a kind of a precarious environment overall.

1000
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 1: But that's that's you know, within the backdrop of this

1001
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 1: you know, overall recessionary risk. And at the end of

1002
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 1: the day, well, oil is fundamentally a physical commodity that

1003
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 1: you know, you and I put in, our put in

1004
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: our planes, and our and our kind of cars and

1005
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 1: everything else. You know, it is also a financial asset.

1006
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 1: And what we're right now is a lot of different

1007
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 1: actors trying to express those views, those macro views through oil.

1008
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: And you know, oil is getting kind of tossed for

1009
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 1: in the process with a long you know, with the

1010
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: rest of the market. Yeah, So speak to that a

1011
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 1: little bit more because I think there's a layman's understanding

1012
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: out there that you know, the price of a barrel

1013
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:20,839
Speaker 1: of oil, it's the supply and the demand and where

1014
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: the two curves meet, that's what it is. But obviously

1015
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 1: that doesn't make sense when you have these wild swings,

1016
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:31,920
Speaker 1: like the fundamentals can't shift minute to minute and the

1017
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,320
Speaker 1: basics of supply and demand can't shift like that minute

1018
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 1: to minute. So how much of these swings have to

1019
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 1: do with financial speculation? Break that down for us a

1020
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 1: little bit, and also tell us whether you know, whether

1021
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 1: you think that it's a healthy thing for the market

1022
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 1: of this commodity that we all really depend on. That's

1023
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:56,359
Speaker 1: it goes through these wild slings, swings based on that speculation. Okay,

1024
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 1: So I'm going to break those down to two different

1025
00:52:58,080 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 1: sections here because I think, you know, on the one

1026
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 1: one hand, we're certainly seeing what I'm going to call

1027
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 1: a flush out of speculative positions. You know, crew doesn't

1028
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:07,919
Speaker 1: move more than ten dollars a bear in the day

1029
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:11,279
Speaker 1: without some kind of you know, financial market positioning at

1030
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 1: play and people getting washed to those positions. So that's

1031
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 1: definitely we have seen that in particularly on the downsides,

1032
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: as people kind of you know, they're holding a crude position,

1033
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:22,839
Speaker 1: you know, futures contracts or options down the curve, and

1034
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, you know, prices come down too quickly

1035
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: or this kind of there's this kind of broader recessionary

1036
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: macro fear, prices drop and then people all bail on mass.

1037
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 1: So that is happening. But at the same time, what's

1038
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:38,280
Speaker 1: really interesting and what's what's been occurring since Russia's invasion

1039
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 1: of Ukraine when prices have been extraordinarily volatile. We've been

1040
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 1: trapped in this extremely high volatility regime. We've actually seen

1041
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 1: speculative interest in crude fall through that entire period, so

1042
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 1: we actually have less speculators in the market than we

1043
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 1: normally do. But what I think is in you were saying,

1044
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 1: you know, fundamentals don't change that quickly, and I agree

1045
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 1: on a minute to minute basis, and you know, Tuesday's

1046
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 1: price action was obviously crazy and obviously kind of some

1047
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:06,919
Speaker 1: kind of speculative flush out. But I do think over

1048
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 1: the past you know, three months since Russian invaded Ukraine,

1049
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:14,560
Speaker 1: we have honestly been experiencing, you know, unprecedented changes day

1050
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: to day, headline to headline, even in our expectations of fundamentals.

1051
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 1: So I do think to a degree that some of

1052
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 1: the volatility has been fundamentally justified. Unfortunately, you know, we

1053
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:26,800
Speaker 1: go between you know, you know, Russia is going to

1054
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 1: lose three million barrels a day of supply according to

1055
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:31,359
Speaker 1: the IA, and then you know, later that day or

1056
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 1: later that week, you know, China locks down, you know,

1057
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:36,640
Speaker 1: sixty percent of its economy. So we're seeing you know,

1058
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: you know, normally, you know, I've been in the industry

1059
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 1: about a decade. Most of my time in the industry,

1060
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 1: we're talking about half a million barrels a day here,

1061
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: maybe a million barrels a day there. These are the

1062
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 1: kind of numbers we're talking about. This is kind of

1063
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:54,400
Speaker 1: amplified by three or fourfold, uh, you know now, and

1064
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 1: each kind of change in a headline can mean a

1065
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 1: huge change to you know, your global supply and balance.

1066
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:03,919
Speaker 1: So I think we are in this extremely high volatility

1067
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: fundamental regime. But you know, as we're seeing, even if

1068
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 1: there isn't that much speculation, those speculators that do remain

1069
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 1: in the market can have you know, weak hands in

1070
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 1: moments like this when there are so many fears of

1071
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 1: recession and people just dump their positions and kind of

1072
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 1: walk away. Particularly for many of these many of these

1073
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 1: funds that are involved. You know, it has actually been

1074
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 1: a relatively profitable trade so they're taking money off the table. Okay,

1075
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: so Rory in general, let's look forward. What are some

1076
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 1: of the things people should look to that are going

1077
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 1: to affect not just the price of oil, but the

1078
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:36,440
Speaker 1: price at the pump. What are some major events? I know, Eia,

1079
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: you guys are looking at supply issues and learn any

1080
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,920
Speaker 1: major announcements or other policy maneuvers that could affect the

1081
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 1: global price. What do you think of that? Yeah, so

1082
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:49,240
Speaker 1: I think, you know, breaking it again into two pieces.

1083
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 1: So we've had this crude oil crisis. We've also refining crisis,

1084
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 1: and we've talked about this a lot, and the idea is,

1085
00:55:55,840 --> 00:56:00,120
Speaker 1: you know, there aren't enough refineries anymore. COVID kind of

1086
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 1: spiked retirements in old refineries and delayed the coming online

1087
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 1: of new refineries. So the crack spread or the refinery

1088
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 1: margin that you're paying, you know, at the pump is

1089
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 1: normally for a barrel of gas, you know, for you know,

1090
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 1: barrel of gasoline somewhere with fifteen twenty dollars a barrel.

1091
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,279
Speaker 1: It's been trading over sixty dollars a barrel. So the

1092
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 1: first thing we hope to see over the course of

1093
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 1: this year is a normalization of those crack spreads and

1094
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 1: refining margins as more refineries come online that had been

1095
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 1: delayed by COVID. So that's the first thing I think

1096
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 1: that is mostly going to be a good positive story

1097
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 1: for consumers of the pump kind of over the coming

1098
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: six months. Even you know, over the last two days

1099
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:40,240
Speaker 1: we've already seen crackspreads come in about twenty five percent

1100
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 1: from their highs, which is a fantastic news both for

1101
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 1: consumers and for the Federal Reserve, which has been watching

1102
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 1: pump price is much more than usual because of this

1103
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 1: fear of an unanchoring of you know, an unmooring of

1104
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 1: inflation expectations. But I do fear that the crude oil

1105
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 1: crisis is going to become worse again over time. And

1106
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 1: the reason for that is that, you know, by the

1107
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 1: end of the summer, OPEK is going to have returned

1108
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 1: all of the barrels that had planned to return. This

1109
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: is barrels that had still been held off the market

1110
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: from the initial early twenty twenty kind of emergency action

1111
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 1: that OPEC took to kind of save the oil market.

1112
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 1: So that's going to be coming to an end. The

1113
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: spr which has been you know, been pumping between a

1114
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 1: million and a million and a half barrels a day

1115
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 1: depending on how you count it, over the past couple

1116
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 1: month or two, and is expected to do that for

1117
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 1: the rest of the summer. That will also come to

1118
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 1: an end. So that's kind of the equivalent of of

1119
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 1: you know, a small or even medium sized OPEC producer

1120
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 1: kind of falling out of the supply balance again. And

1121
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 1: then you know, and then all that together and I

1122
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: think that you know, we're still going to get demand

1123
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 1: that's going to continue to accelerate again absence some kind

1124
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:46,960
Speaker 1: of truly deleterious recession or worse. And that's I think

1125
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 1: going to be particularly pronounced in China, where you know,

1126
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: most of this year, the beginning of the year, we

1127
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: actually have seen reasonably weak global supply demand balances because

1128
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 1: of these lockdown in China, and you know, crude oil

1129
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 1: inventories globally have kind of stayed still for a couple

1130
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 1: of months after following at their fastest pace on record.

1131
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 1: My expectation is as that demand normalizes from you know,

1132
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 1: you know, a rollback of you know, these kind of

1133
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 1: curtailment policies, but also as so that suppliestarts to fall off,

1134
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 1: I think the crude oil balances are going to start

1135
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 1: tightening again. I think that's where you're going to see

1136
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 1: the action going forward as kind of refining kind of uh,

1137
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 1: you know, salt, you know, sorts itself out and kind

1138
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:26,439
Speaker 1: of moves to the background. Got it. So, bottom line,

1139
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen with gas

1140
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:31,280
Speaker 1: prices in the near term. I think they're going to fall,

1141
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 1: and I think that's going to be a very very

1142
00:58:32,600 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 1: positive thing going into driving season here. I think a

1143
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: recessionary fears are still high. Obviously, crude oil is much

1144
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 1: lower than has been and crack spreads as well. So

1145
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 1: I do think that there is some kind of relief

1146
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 1: in you know, over the next month or two for

1147
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 1: consumers of the pump. But then I think that things

1148
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 1: are going to you know, take a turn for the

1149
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 1: worse again in the fall, and I think, you know,

1150
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:53,440
Speaker 1: prices are going to begin rising again until we get more,

1151
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 1: particularly US supply growth, and I think that will be

1152
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 1: the main that the only real kind of organic thing

1153
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,880
Speaker 1: that's going to be able to bring the prices, crude

1154
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 1: prices down in a reasonable manner. Got it? Gotcha? Well,

1155
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 1: we can always count on you to actually break it

1156
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 1: down for us. As you know, I hit this guy

1157
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 1: up like every day and being like what is going on.

1158
00:59:11,840 --> 00:59:14,680
Speaker 1: I appreciate you telling the audience as well. Like we said,

1159
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 1: commodity contact substack. It'll be down there in the description

1160
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 1: and we appreciate you joining us. Thank you, thanks for

1161
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 1: trying me. Big breaking news as of early this morning.

1162
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 1: Happened just this morning. We were looking over it last night,

1163
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 1: didn't know what exactly the status was going to be,

1164
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 1: but Boris Johnson has officially resigned the office of Prime

1165
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: Minister in the United Kingdom. He was speaking to the

1166
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 1: British people this morning. Let's take a listen and to you,

1167
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:43,959
Speaker 1: the British public. I know that there will be many

1168
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: people who are relieved and perhaps quite a few who

1169
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 1: will also be disappointed. And I want you to know

1170
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:54,880
Speaker 1: how sad I am to be giving up the best

1171
00:59:54,960 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 1: job in the world. But them's the breaks. Them's the breaks, Crystal.

1172
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I always loved Boris. You know,

1173
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:07,440
Speaker 1: policy aside, he was a character. He really was one

1174
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 1: of a kind British figure. He will not going to

1175
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 1: see anybody like him in British politics again. Now in

1176
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 1: terms of what This means Boris has been in office

1177
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:19,120
Speaker 1: for about three years after winning that pretty stunning election,

1178
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,840
Speaker 1: which you know pressage what I thought was could have

1179
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 1: been something interesting, but COVID really took him off the rails.

1180
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 1: All of these scandals kind of broke to the four

1181
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 1: in the last forty eight hours, where there were some

1182
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 1: decisions to snap ones by his cabinet members, and that

1183
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 1: led to a mass resignation in the last forty eight

1184
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 1: hours by many of his most high ranking ministers. All

1185
01:00:37,880 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: of them basically said they no longer had confidence in

1186
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 1: his ability to take the government. The biggest problem for

1187
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:45,920
Speaker 1: Boris was he's just had scandal after scandal after scandal,

1188
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 1: which seemed very quaint here in the United States. Though

1189
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 1: I think the biggest one was that he was drinking

1190
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:56,360
Speaker 1: and having parties during COVID in like May of twenty twenty,

1191
01:00:56,400 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 1: by the way, after he was in the hospital, which

1192
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 1: is uncomsponable, but he was having parties high government officials.

1193
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:05,520
Speaker 1: He was actually fined by the UK police after the

1194
01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: investigation found that he did in fact break lockdown rules.

1195
01:01:08,440 --> 01:01:10,640
Speaker 1: That kind of was just the beginning. Then he recently

1196
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 1: appointed somebody who'd been accused of sexual assault or some

1197
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:17,520
Speaker 1: sort of lewd untoward behavior, but just in general, his

1198
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 1: standing within the Conservative Party has been in question now

1199
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 1: for some time, and the mass resignation it does seem

1200
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 1: kind of planned. You know, two people came and then

1201
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 1: the rest of them went out, and so from now

1202
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 1: what's going to happen is currently the British government is

1203
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 1: on something called summer vacation, and in the annual party

1204
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:35,440
Speaker 1: conference in the fall, there's a committee of the Conservative

1205
01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 1: Party which is going to vote and elect their new leader,

1206
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:41,320
Speaker 1: and whoever that will be will become the Prime Minister

1207
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 1: of the UK because they do have I believe they

1208
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 1: have two more years until there's another general election to

1209
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:49,720
Speaker 1: be called there. But effectively, you know, he's resigned the

1210
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 1: office today, they'll vote whoever his leader will be. I

1211
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 1: assume it will be in the next coming weeks or months,

1212
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:57,120
Speaker 1: and then that person will succeed Boris Johnson as the

1213
01:01:57,160 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 1: next leader in the datum, and he sort of wants

1214
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:01,400
Speaker 1: to hang on till the fall, till they figure on

1215
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,680
Speaker 1: his replacement, but there are a lot of calls for

1216
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:06,560
Speaker 1: him to be gone basically immediately. I think one of

1217
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 1: his former aids said that there would be quote carnage

1218
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 1: if he wasn't out of there right away, and you know,

1219
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 1: just candidly. I don't follow this nearly as closely as

1220
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 1: some people do, but from reading into it, I mean,

1221
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,439
Speaker 1: it seems like this is one of those instances where

1222
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:24,000
Speaker 1: the cover ups were worse than the crime. So it's

1223
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 1: not just that he had these COVID lockdown parties, which

1224
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 1: I did follow that scandal pretty closely because it had

1225
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:31,600
Speaker 1: a lot of echoes with different politicians here in the

1226
01:02:31,680 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 1: US who were totally totally hypocrites, who were you know,

1227
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 1: pro lockdown. Of course, the UK was on pretty stringent

1228
01:02:37,400 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: lockdown at the time. And not only is he having

1229
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:44,120
Speaker 1: these weekly parties, but then out and out lying about

1230
01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 1: it multiple times. One of his aides was caught. They

1231
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 1: were caught sort of like making fun of the whole situation.

1232
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 1: And so that was one piece. And then with this

1233
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 1: latest scandal, which was sort of the straw that broke

1234
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 1: the camel's back. I suppose not to minimize, you know,

1235
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 1: the serious business allegations here, but it wasn't just that

1236
01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 1: this individual was accused of sexual harassment. It was also

1237
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 1: that there appear to have been previous allegations that had

1238
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:14,640
Speaker 1: been covered up by Boris Johnson. You layer, on top

1239
01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 1: of that, there were a number of other scandals within

1240
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 1: the Conservative Party of other sexual harassment, other sexual assaults,

1241
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:23,920
Speaker 1: some of them horrifying, some of them just like bizarre,

1242
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 1: like some dude who was watching porn on his phone,

1243
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:29,000
Speaker 1: and the House of Commons like what. So all of

1244
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 1: this added up to a picture of someone who was

1245
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 1: not trustworthy, who was caught repeatedly lying to the public

1246
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:40,760
Speaker 1: covering up. And so you know, Boris Johnson, he initially

1247
01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:44,120
Speaker 1: had this very sort of like buffoonish persona, which I

1248
01:03:44,120 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 1: think has sort of stayed with him, and this portrait

1249
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:52,840
Speaker 1: of a very undisciplined, untrustworthy character is what ultimately seems

1250
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:55,800
Speaker 1: to have done him. And they had fifty two of

1251
01:03:56,360 --> 01:04:00,280
Speaker 1: resignations this week alone. One dude who he had just

1252
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 1: appointed on like Tuesday. By Thursday was submitting his resignation.

1253
01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:07,000
Speaker 1: So it became too much of a snowball effect for

1254
01:04:07,080 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 1: him to be able to withstand, even though as recently

1255
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,280
Speaker 1: as yesterday he was saying, I'm not going anywhere. It's

1256
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 1: you know, in their system, it's very difficult whenever you

1257
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:16,720
Speaker 1: know you might either lose a vote of no confidence

1258
01:04:16,840 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 1: or when you have no support amongst your party, because

1259
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:20,920
Speaker 1: you wouldn't be able to appoint anybody to your cabinet.

1260
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 1: So the cabinet there has a much, very interesting history

1261
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:27,520
Speaker 1: in the way that it works in terms of governance,

1262
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:29,960
Speaker 1: and the ability to balance your cabinet is not really

1263
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 1: the same as it works with ours. It kind of

1264
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 1: used to work that way in our system back in

1265
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:37,320
Speaker 1: the eighteen hundreds before Abraham Lincoln was president. So anyway,

1266
01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:40,280
Speaker 1: it's an interesting system that they have. So that means

1267
01:04:40,280 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 1: that we will have a new PM. The Conservative Party

1268
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 1: gets to decide who that person will be, and then

1269
01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 1: that person will most likely stand for a general election

1270
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 1: against the Labor leader. I believe their named Carrie Sterm. Yeah,

1271
01:04:51,240 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 1: I can never say it correctly anyway, Sorry, Britz. Anyway,

1272
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:57,200
Speaker 1: we're tracking very closely for our purposes and for the world.

1273
01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 1: I actually do think this is a tremendously important, in

1274
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 1: tremendously important development. Here's the reason. Boris was probably the

1275
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:10,400
Speaker 1: single most hawkish leader on the European in Europe on Ukraine,

1276
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:12,600
Speaker 1: so he of course, you know, we covered the two

1277
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 1: stories here. Number one, whenever his meeting with Zelensky and others.

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Speaker 1: He said, we're not interested in a peace agreement here

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Speaker 1: at all. This was months ago, kind of in the

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01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:23,760
Speaker 1: middle of the fighting. And most recently he took Emmanuel

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01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 1: macrone over and said, hey, you need to stop this

1282
01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:30,080
Speaker 1: diplomacy and all this other stuff. So the Anglo sphere,

1283
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:32,440
Speaker 1: if they do have somebody who is not as hawkish

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01:05:32,440 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 1: as Boris Johnson and Boris really he was much more

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01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 1: of a student of Churchill, and he saw himself within

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01:05:37,360 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 1: that vein, and he very much was much more hawkish

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01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:45,000
Speaker 1: towards Russia than any other leader within not in the EU,

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01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:47,960
Speaker 1: but you know his EU compatriots, I guess who he

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01:05:48,160 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 1: was also meeting, and alongside Biden, they were pushing the

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01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 1: most stringent policy against Russia. So whoever they appoint, it's

1291
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:56,919
Speaker 1: going to be very very important to see how they

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01:05:57,000 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 1: approached the Ukraine conflict. Are they going to have the

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01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,919
Speaker 1: same policy towards that? And actually, you know, could push

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01:06:03,040 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 1: things in a different direction. So for our purposes, I

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01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:07,920
Speaker 1: think that's probably the biggest takeaway. Also, remember we do

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Speaker 1: amount of a a tremendous amount of trade with the UK.

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01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,760
Speaker 1: We have a bilateral trade agreement that's coming up. I

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01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:15,919
Speaker 1: believe before Congress and others is being negotiated. So there's

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01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:19,400
Speaker 1: other interesting intersection areas as well. Yeah, that occurred to

1300
01:06:19,440 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 1: me as well, because the US and the UK have

1301
01:06:21,400 --> 01:06:26,480
Speaker 1: really been a united front in taking a uniformly hawkish

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01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 1: approach to Russia's war in Ukraine, you know, making it

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01:06:31,280 --> 01:06:34,240
Speaker 1: clear that they want the war to continue rather than

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01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:37,200
Speaker 1: trying to negotiate any sort of peace. As you said,

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01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:40,480
Speaker 1: Boris Johnson being very aggressive and conveying that to the

1306
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:43,680
Speaker 1: French leader and very publicly telling everybody that he conveyed

1307
01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:45,720
Speaker 1: that to the French leaders, even as the French well

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01:06:45,800 --> 01:06:48,720
Speaker 1: that's not quite how it went. So the posture of

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01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:52,320
Speaker 1: whoever comes next is going to be incredibly significant to

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01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 1: US and to what happens with that war going for

1311
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,160
Speaker 1: Do I expect there's going to be a tremendous shift. No,

1312
01:06:57,200 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: not really, because ultimately I think you know, US is

1313
01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:02,800
Speaker 1: driving this train, whether they should be or not. The

1314
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 1: US is overwhelmingly sending the most amount of aid and weapons,

1315
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:10,560
Speaker 1: and even as Biden loves to use this rhetoric of like, oh,

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01:07:10,600 --> 01:07:12,880
Speaker 1: we're just doing what the Ukrainians want, the truth of

1317
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 1: the matter is that the US is driving the policy

1318
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,360
Speaker 1: here and UK is very likely to continue to back

1319
01:07:19,360 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 1: with that. I completely agree, So look, it'll be interesting,

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Speaker 1: we'll see what happens, and we'll keep everybody updated