1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: Scrap on your parachute. It's time for What Goes Up 2 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: with Sarah Ponza and Mike Reagan. Hello, and welcome to 3 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 1: What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly Markets podcast. I'm Sarah 4 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 1: pons a reporter on the Cross Asset team, and I'm 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: Mike Reagan, a senior editor at Bloomberg. And you can 6 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: think of me as the Louise to Sarah's Thelma. You know, 7 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: I love how I don't have any warning that these 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: are coming, Mike. It's maybe every three weeks, every two weeks, 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: every five weeks. You just throw them in there. Yeah, 10 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: it's good, it's good. Well this week on the show. 11 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 1: Come next week, President elect Joe Biden will become the 12 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 1: forty six president of the United States. Our guests this 13 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: week has worked in senior economic and trade policy roles 14 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,639 Speaker 1: under five different US presidents and he spent twenty five 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: years of golden sacks. He'll walk us through with the 16 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: new administration's policy proposed could mean for both the economy 17 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: and markets, and as usual, we will finish the episode 18 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: with our tradition, the craziest thing I saw in markets 19 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,479 Speaker 1: this week, Sarah, I'll give you one teaser. Uh, once again. 20 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: My craziest thing in markets is bitcoin related. I know 21 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: a lot of listeners crave that bitcoin content. And for 22 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: the craziest thing segment, it's a it's a deep well 23 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: to go to. For sure. I'm gonna go ahead and 24 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: say I did have a listener reach out to me 25 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: on Twitter, and I have a feeling that your crazy 26 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: thing might be the same as his. All Right, you might. 27 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: You may think so. You may think so, but I 28 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: think I gotta I think it's gonna be a curveball. 29 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: But before we get to that, let's talk about the 30 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 1: the important issues of the day. As Sarah pointed out, 31 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 1: our guest this week, UM has one of the most 32 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: fascinating resumes. I think I've I've ever read uh five 33 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: different US presidents from Nixon all the way up to Obama. Sarah, 34 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: I think the way you define yourself in this day 35 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: and age is by the company you keep over zoom uh. 36 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: And I'll give you an example. I read My last 37 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: zoom call was with a bunch of guys I went 38 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: to high school with. And it was a Saturday night. 39 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: I think a guy's had a few drinks. Maybe one 40 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: guy fell asleep during the zoom and started snoring and 41 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: if if if you zoom a talent, but if you 42 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: know al zoom works as we all do by now, 43 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: the microphone and the video follows who's ever making the noise. 44 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 1: So we'd be trying to talk and catch up and 45 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: this guy would start snoring, and that he'd dominate and 46 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: then we don't have to wait for him to get 47 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 1: his snore out, and then we start talking about we 48 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 1: try to rush it in and then another big storm comes. 49 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: Our guest, on the other hand, has a much better 50 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: zoom uh story for us. He was recently zooming with 51 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:52,239 Speaker 1: the Foreign Minister of China, So hopefully no one fell 52 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: asleep and started snorting snoring on that zoom call. But 53 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: we're very happy to have him back on the show. 54 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 1: He is started mentioned just a really phenomenal interesting career, 55 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: long time at Goldman Uh, several really interesting white house jobs. 56 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: He's currently managing director at Taman Advisers. His name is 57 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: Bob Hormetts. Bob, welcome back to the show. Thank you 58 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: very much. It's always a pleasure to be on this 59 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: show and I enjoy Bloomberg. I particularly enjoyed it when 60 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: I get up in the morning at six am, come 61 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 1: in and drink a triple Lotte Espresso. These days, Bob, 62 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: we go to expresso to go on Tom Kean show. 63 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: You needed at least three expressos or three latdays to 64 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: get up to that level of proficiency and energy that 65 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: Tom exods, right. I think I'm not I'm still not 66 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: ready for Tom after that many lattases. So I don't know. 67 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: I think I think you need the latte's and a 68 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: and a and a resume like hers to talk to 69 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: Tom at that hour, Bob. So, uh, but let's talk 70 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: about that. I think China, the relationship with China right now, 71 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: I think is is at such a fascinating point, obviously 72 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: with the change of the administration. So tell us, you know, 73 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: tell us about that zoom call. I hope no one 74 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: was snoring. But also what's your sense of sort of 75 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: you know, how Beijing is viewing the relationship with the 76 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: US as we sort of turned the page on on 77 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: this White House. Well, there are different levels, uh, in 78 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: this relationship. One clearly, President Jijiping has aspirations of Chinese 79 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: leadership of the global economic order, uh and perhaps political 80 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: order of the first part of the twenty one century, 81 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 1: and really wants China to play a global leadership role 82 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: and help shape the global political and economic order of 83 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: this period, and in part over the last several years, 84 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: because the US has really not played a very proactive 85 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: role in shaping the order or in supporting alliances or 86 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: international institutions, the Chinese have seen the opportunity to take 87 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:13,679 Speaker 1: advantage of this opening and to exert leadership. So that's 88 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 1: really part one. Part two is that shi Jin Pain 89 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: has strengths and the role of the Communist Party in China. Uh. 90 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: He is clearly um one of the most dominant UH 91 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: personalities and strongest leaders China has had since the revolution 92 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: in four in the hand of the revolution the Declaration 93 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: of the Peoples Republic of China in nine. Uh, you know, 94 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 1: there was mouth, there was Don chall Pain, and now 95 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: we have the very powerful leadership of Shijin Pain. And 96 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: he wants to not only ensure the strength of his leadership, 97 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: but the continued strong role of the Communist Party. And three, 98 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: he is clearly intent on developing China's role as a 99 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 1: global technological power of the first order in AI, quantum computing, 100 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: five G, any number of things. He feels that China 101 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: was passed over because of its own internal weakness and 102 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: because of the West sort of um leaping ahead in 103 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: the last two industrial revolutions. He wants China to be 104 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: a leader in the technological revolution of the twenty one century, 105 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: and that means competing very hard with the United States 106 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: and putting a lot of money into this competitive effort. 107 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: Uh And and there's certainly a greater degree of nationalism 108 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: in China than before, and a lot of tensions with 109 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: the US over intellectual property protection, how to deal with businesses, 110 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: trade secrets, a whole range of things. But the last 111 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: point is that the Chinese also and this was emphasized 112 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: by the Foreign Minister h also want to be able 113 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: to work with the United States in certain areas where 114 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: there is the potential for collaboration. Certainly there has been 115 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:33,679 Speaker 1: a history of cooperation on medical issues. Chinese doctors work 116 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: in virtually every hospital in this country. China is working 117 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: on advanced medicines, including vaccines and therapeutics. China also wants 118 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: to play a major leadership role on environmental issues. And 119 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: if the US, now under Biden, wants to regain its 120 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: leadership on environmental issues, we're gonna have to find some 121 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: way of working with China, as the Obama administration did. 122 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: And then there's the financial area, where if you go 123 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: back to two thousand and eight, the financial crisis of 124 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: that era was resolved in large measure because of the 125 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: cooperation between the United States and China. The People's Bank 126 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: of China and the FED, the US Treasury in the 127 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: Chinese Finance Ministry worked very close to the other. So 128 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: it's a competitive relationship. We're dealing with a country that 129 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: is far more competitive and far more areas than the 130 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: United States has faced at any time during the postwar period, 131 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: and we have to figure out how we can strengthen 132 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: our own competitive capabilities if we're going to compete with China, 133 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: and that I think is one of the things that 134 00:08:48,800 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: President Biden will want to emphasize. So what's the expectation 135 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: do you feel on how the Biden administration is going 136 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:08,439 Speaker 1: to go about walking that line between competition and cooperation. 137 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: I think of the last four years, and clearly tariffs 138 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 1: had effect an effect on the economy and markets. We've 139 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: heard of stock delistings back and forth and back and 140 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: forth whether or not those in the US can invest 141 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,959 Speaker 1: in Chinese companies. What do you think the Biden administration 142 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: is going to target here well, I think as the 143 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 1: Biden administration's tone each to each China will not be 144 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: as strident as um the Trump administration's tone. But I 145 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: do think that Biden and both Republicans and Democrats and 146 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: the business community in general want a tougher line on China. 147 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: And then the United States has displayed before on such 148 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: things as intellectual property, the rules with respected data privacy, 149 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: how far earned companies are dealt with a whole range 150 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: of things for trade secrets of American companies. So I 151 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 1: think he's going to uh not revert back to the 152 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: uh softer period of of the past, but we'll take 153 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: a harder line. I don't expect an immediate withdrawal of 154 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 1: some of the tariffs uh. And I don't expect another 155 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: grand round of trade negotiations is so called Round two. 156 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: I think you will try to get China to comply 157 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 1: with the commitments of Round one. But I do think 158 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: two things will happen. First, the United States has to 159 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: decide what it really wants from China. Can't just present 160 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 1: a whole menu so called Chinese menu uh and say 161 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: we want you do all these things. We have to 162 00:10:56,040 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: figure out, preferably on a bipartisan basis, what the priorities 163 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: are from our own part point of view. Second, how 164 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 1: we work with our friends and allies. And I think 165 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 1: this has been a deficiency over the last several years, 166 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: that we we have so many trade hassles with our 167 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 1: friends and allies using various parts of Trade Act or 168 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: Trade Act, that they are not in a mood to 169 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: really work with the United States on China, even though 170 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: many of our objectives vias of each China are similar 171 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: to the objectives of other countries like Germany. For instance, 172 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: the Chinese book this big robotics company called Puca, and 173 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: then the Germans wanted to buy a large, comparable, not 174 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: the same, but comparable Chinese company. Chinese said no, and 175 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: of course the Germans said, this is not fair, it's 176 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: not a level of playing field. So I think that 177 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: if we're smart, will not only develop our own sets 178 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: of objectives, to find out what other countries objectives are 179 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: and figure out where there are ways of working with 180 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: other countries collectively to convince China to adhere to certain 181 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: rules and norms and practices. And that means working with Japan, 182 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: South Korea, the EU, and countries such as India and others, 183 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 1: and related to that, I don't think the Biden administration 184 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: is going to immediately in part for domestic political reasons. 185 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 1: Um they're the Republicans who don't like it, Democrats who 186 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 1: don't like it. That is to say, a new t 187 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: p P or the new t p P M. I 188 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: don't think Asas is going to come back and join 189 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: that right away. But I think there are elements of 190 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: the current tpp that the United States can support, and 191 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: the United States can certainly work the other with members 192 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: of the new t p P on these of each China, 193 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: on issues where there is common ground, there's a certain 194 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: common sense of a mutual objective, so we don't have 195 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: to rejoin it, but we do need to work with 196 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: it in the in the near term. In the medium term, 197 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: I think there'll be a lot of talked about the 198 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 1: United States rejoining some kind of t p P like 199 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: mechanism because it shows cohesion economically in the Pacific, but 200 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: are also demonstrates that the United States is back as 201 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: a major player instead of pulling back on the economic front, 202 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: is collaborating in a more effective way on the economic front. 203 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: And the t p P is a vehicle that was 204 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: designed to do that, and since the United States pulled 205 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: away from it, we have sort of left that vehicle 206 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: to others. The Japanese have done a great job of 207 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: leadership of that, but the United States still needs to 208 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: play a role in it, Bob. So many of President 209 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: Trump's policies were motivated by the trade deficit. Um and here, 210 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: you know, as he prepares to sort of right off 211 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 1: into the sunset China's last trade report, it looks like 212 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: their exports, UH, their their trade surplus UH is at 213 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 1: a record high. I mean, I guess you can, you know, 214 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: you can look at some of the U S data 215 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: and see that our exports to China as as a 216 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: percentage of of exports have have risen significantly. And obviously 217 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: the virus has just uh really clouded these numbers pretty severely. 218 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: But I wonder, you know, when you look back on 219 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: everything that was done to shrink that trade deficit, I wonder, a, um, 220 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: will it work eventually once we're through the other side 221 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: of this virus? And b is that sort of hyper 222 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: focus on the trade deficit a good idea from the 223 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: American perspective? Is it sort of our our main problem 224 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: or is there you know, is it? Is it kind 225 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: of overblown that to focus on it so so severely, Well, 226 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: I would, but this way it would be nice to 227 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: have a trade relationship with China that is more imbalanced 228 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: than currently. But the fact is that trade deficits or 229 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: surpluses in this case deficits really are The economists will 230 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: have models that demonstrate this, that there is between what 231 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: we save and what we spend, because what we if 232 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 1: we spend a lot more, the economy grows and we 233 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: we import more from abroad, and then we have to 234 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: borrow the money to make up the difference, which is 235 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: why we're able and why we have to in effect 236 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: sell more farm bonds, the far the bonds, some more 237 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: bonds abroad, and that essentially it means that we are 238 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: increasingly in debt, not only to our own people, but 239 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: if we're going to be borrowing more and more money, 240 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: as we probably have to do to get the economy 241 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: going and to deal with COVID relief, then we have 242 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: to get some money to pay for the treasury. Someone 243 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: has to buy these treasuries, and it comes from abroad, 244 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: whether it comes from China which has not been buying 245 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: a lot of treasuries lately, or other countries like Japan, 246 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: which has where we're going to have a financial deficit 247 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: and a trade deficit um if we do not generate 248 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: a higher level of savings than before, and if we 249 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 1: continue to borrow a lot of money as as we 250 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: are now. So I'm not particularly worried about um this 251 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: in the near term, but I think over the medium term, 252 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: the key point for me is not so much the 253 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: numbers of the deficit, but are we competitive in the 254 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: key areas that are the essential twenty one century technologies 255 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 1: that are going to be important from our own economic 256 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,439 Speaker 1: point of view, and other countries like China consider them 257 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 1: important from a Chinese point of view. So it's our 258 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: competitive strength in these new areas of technology and in 259 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: manufacturing in general, and in services that are critical to me, 260 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: not some numerical uh metric, but our competitive strengths. And 261 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: that's where we have to put more money into science, technology, mathematics, physics, 262 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:44,400 Speaker 1: and and all the so called stems to make ourselves 263 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: more competitive in a very competitive world. And we're we 264 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: That means investing in education, That means more training, That 265 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: means people who have not had the benefit of training 266 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: and technology get opportunities to do that, which means improving 267 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: the school system, not just very high quality schools like 268 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: Wrong Science and Stuyvesant here in New York, but strengthening 269 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: community college is strengthening schools and getting people energized about 270 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: mathematics and physics and science and technology. Because we're competing 271 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 1: with a lot of very competitive Chinese. If we want 272 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: to compete, we have to have competitive workers and researchers 273 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 1: and others in the United States. That's the challenge. Then, 274 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: more to me, more than a given number, Can you 275 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: break down the thinking on that a little bit more? 276 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: For us? The idea that you can have a higher 277 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: deficit and more spending as long as you are competitive, 278 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: is it? Is it simply the return on investment? Well, 279 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: and then it gets complicated because you if you have 280 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: if you have large deficits for a sustained period of time, 281 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 1: you're building up a lot of debt to other countries. 282 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,880 Speaker 1: Of course, you have to pay that debt. Now at 283 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: the moment, it's not so hard to do because interest 284 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: rates on treasuries, which is what foreign investors had to 285 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: buy a lot of uh that interest rates quite low. 286 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: When interest rates start going up, as now many predicts 287 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: they will with all this borrowing. Then the debt servicing 288 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: becomes a bigger burden, and it becomes a bigger burden 289 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 1: to the federal government because it crowds out other programs, 290 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: and it means the United States has to in effect 291 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: pay more to other countries that will led us the money, 292 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 1: which is money that's not spent here. So I think 293 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: what Bob is saying is that my English degree did 294 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 1: not really help this nation become more competitive. I should 295 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 1: have majored in accounting. I knew it, or or science 296 00:19:52,760 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: or something stem. You know, Bob, you mentioned the fiscal 297 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,400 Speaker 1: deficit and the federal debt and who's going to buy 298 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: all these treasuries. I mean, obviously the Federal Reserve is 299 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: the big the big buyer these days, you know, and 300 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: sort of the notion of modern monetary theory has really 301 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 1: picked up a lot of steam lately. People say, you know, 302 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: don't don't fret over the debt and the deficit. Um, 303 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: if you issue your own currency, you can always pay 304 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: it back, that that sort of thing. Um. I'm guessing 305 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: you're not in that that camp. I would assume, well, I, 306 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: I you know, it's a time issue more than anything, 307 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 1: I do think that we need while we're in this 308 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 1: UH period of COVID and and a lot of people's 309 00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: lives are being disrupted, a lot of companies are closed 310 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: and down, and there's a lot of pain the cities 311 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: and states. And I want to add this as an 312 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: important underlying underlying point. We're gonna need legislation that helps 313 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 1: individuals who are harmed by the shutdown and by COVID. 314 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: We're gonna need to help companies of a wide range 315 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 1: of companies in fact, but particularly small and medium sized businesses. 316 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: Many of them are being forced to shut down. We're 317 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 1: going to We're gonna also need to help cities and states. 318 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: They're absorbing a huge amount of the burden, you know, 319 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: Medicaid and and and the states. This is a very 320 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: expensive proposition in these states. Unlike the federal government, the 321 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: states can't print money, and many of them are forbidden 322 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: to have deficits by their constitutions, so they are having 323 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: to lay off people. They're having to cut back on 324 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: services that in an effect is particularly harmful to low 325 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 1: end people. It is in New York and UH and 326 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 1: and and and disadvantaged UH socioeconomic groups. So I think, UH, 327 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: if money needs to be spent, obviously it shouldn't be 328 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: spent wisely. But if money needs to be spent now 329 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 1: UH to deal with these issues, it should be And 330 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: I'm all for UH President elect Biden seem to be 331 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,719 Speaker 1: President Biden coming up with a bold spending program for 332 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: COVID relief, for state and local governments and for other things. 333 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 1: And I'm also of the view that UM infrastructure is 334 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: critically important. Eisen Our understood this after the World A 335 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: World War two in the Korean where he launched the 336 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: Interstate Highway program. Why did he do this? Obviously we 337 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: needed new highways, but he wanted to be able to 338 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 1: create jobs for people who were coming back from the wars. 339 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: So we're really a now in a similar situation where 340 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: a lot of jobs have been lost. We've got to 341 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 1: create new jobs, and we need to deal with people 342 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:11,959 Speaker 1: who were hurt by COVID, whose companies are being forced 343 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: out of business, who are losing their jobs, and state 344 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: and local governments in particular need a lot of help, 345 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: and that should be a critical part of this built 346 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 1: because these states and local governments, if they off people 347 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 1: and they cut back on services, there's going to be 348 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: a lot of social unrest in many of these cities 349 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: and states. So, UM, that's the current environment. Said it 350 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 1: was a timing issue. Over the longer term, UM, there 351 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: needs to be a way of of paying back at 352 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: least some I don't expect all, but at least some 353 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: of the money that's been borrowed. Now. I don't think 354 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 1: this is gonna be easy, and I don't really know 355 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: that they're easy ways of doing it. In the past, 356 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: there was you create a lot of inflation, and inflation 357 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: enables the federal government to get more money because you 358 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: people move up in the tax bracket, and then they 359 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: can help pay off the debt. But I think for 360 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: the moment, the reality is we're going to have a 361 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: large debt for a long period of time and and 362 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: big uh growth, high growth expectations or high inflationary expectations, 363 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 1: or very substantial increases and taxes are probably not likely. 364 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: And therefore we're going to probably have to learn to 365 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: live with these deficits and the these debts and and 366 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,679 Speaker 1: perhaps deficits, but certainly debts. And the FED, as you 367 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 1: pointed out earlier, is going to be putting more and 368 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 1: more paper on its books, is going to be in 369 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 1: effect printing more money. So the FED is going to 370 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: have a very very high balance sheet for a long 371 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 1: piod of time. And on modern monetary theory, um, whether 372 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 1: one believes in it or not, and there it's controversial. 373 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 1: The reality is the FED is forced into it because 374 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: it has to lend at low rates because people need 375 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 1: the money and may can't service debts at high rates 376 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:24,719 Speaker 1: federal government included, So the FED prints money um in 377 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: effect buys bonds with at very low interest rates, which 378 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 1: effectively is spreading money and UM. And that's gonna happen 379 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: for a long time. If the Fed starts raising rates 380 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: or rates started going up, all these people who are 381 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 1: leveraged to low rates, companies, individuals, homeowners are going to 382 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: start having to use a lot of the money they 383 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 1: make to repay debts. It will slow the economy down. 384 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: So the FED actually is sort of forced the position 385 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 1: where it can't really allow rates to go too much 386 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: because it was slowly economy down very quickly, and then 387 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 1: the federal government would be at state local governments would 388 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: be paying out more money, which means other programs would suffer. 389 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,119 Speaker 1: And I'd add one caveat However, and that is these 390 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 1: low rates are very painful to savers, particularly the elderly, 391 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: because they you know, they thought, gee, if I've if 392 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: I've made twenty dollars in my life, I have two 393 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: thousand dollars in savings I put in the bank, or 394 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 1: I buy treasuries, I get a nice interest rates. That's 395 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 1: what they thought several years ago. And I get a 396 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 1: nice interest rate of maybe two or three percent. That's 397 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 1: what a lot of people would have thought several years ago. 398 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: But it turns out now that the interest rate that 399 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 1: they get is you know, a fraction of that. And 400 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:52,120 Speaker 1: so for savers, particularly conservative or elderly people who've saved 401 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,640 Speaker 1: a lot of money, they're getting so little in return 402 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 1: for their fixed income savings preticting treasuries. But also and 403 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: then corporates, you know, I a great corporates that they're suffering. 404 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: So the the longest rates maybe and are good for 405 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:14,360 Speaker 1: the overall economy, and and uh, the spending is very 406 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: good for people, disadvantage people in cities and states, and 407 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 1: we need more of it, but the low interest rates 408 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: can be very disadvantageous too, conservative elderly savers, and we 409 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: have to bear that mind. It's a it's a big 410 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 1: cost for elderly conservative savers. All right, Mike, I think 411 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:42,160 Speaker 1: it's that time though. It absolutely is the time, Bob. 412 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: This is our our fun time of the show where 413 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 1: we talk about the craziest things we've seen in the market. 414 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 1: This week started what that I'll get started with a 415 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: one that came in from a listener. Uh. And again, 416 00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 1: you can call in your crazy ideas to us, your 417 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: crazy things on the hotline, you can send them to 418 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: us on Twitter. The absolute coolest way to do it 419 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 1: is to send it to us over the Bloomberg terminal. 420 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:13,360 Speaker 1: And that's what Steve Kaminski of Jump Trading did. Very exclusive, 421 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: though it is very it's an excuse love club. Yeah, 422 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that your chances are getting on 423 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,359 Speaker 1: the show or greater if you do it this way. 424 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,919 Speaker 1: But I'm I'm not saying it's not either. But he 425 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 1: writes and says, love the pod you do with Sarah. 426 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for all the great market content, tent and context. 427 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 1: I had to throw that in. I had to throw 428 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 1: in the compliments and he points out this asset. Uh, Bob, 429 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: you might have some thoughts on this. We like to 430 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 1: talk about the alternative asset space in the Crazy Things, 431 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: and Steve is pointing out a nineteen fifty two Michel 432 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: Mickey Mantel baseball card just sold for now, let's play prices, right, Sarah, 433 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: what are you paying for a nineteen fifty two Mickey 434 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,479 Speaker 1: Mantle baseball I can't guess because I've seen the numbers. 435 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,479 Speaker 1: It's not fair the numbers. You just see. If the numbers, 436 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: what's your bid? Bob? I might pay hundred dollars maybe, 437 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: Now let's hear what it is. I'm way low. I'm 438 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: not a great stock picker. I'm not a baseball baseball 439 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:23,959 Speaker 1: card picker. Even better, even better, Bob, you would not 440 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: win that auction. It went for five point two million. 441 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: And as Steve says, how does a collectible how does 442 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 1: a collectible card bubble pop? I don't know, I don't know, 443 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: but five point two million for a piece of card boards? 444 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 1: Remember the tool of Craze and Holland. People are paying 445 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 1: millions of guilders for a tool of bulb um. So this, 446 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: I can't say, this totally surprises me. But then the 447 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 1: question is, if you're looking at five years was it, 448 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 1: what is that tool of bulb or what is that 449 00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: baseball card game be worth? If it's worth well, you 450 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 1: know what it might be if you were a toolip buyer, Um, 451 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 1: five years from the time about the tool, it probably 452 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: wasn't worth. It's a pretty unbelievable I also want to 453 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: mention Mike brought up the podcast hotline, and I want 454 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 1: to bring you that number in case you would like 455 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 1: to give us a call that six four six three 456 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 1: two four three four nine zero, leave us a message, 457 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 1: and of course we might even play it on the show. 458 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: And sorry, that was that was our listeners. I'm gonna 459 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: give you my own crazy thing, which I promised was 460 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 1: about bitcoin. Now, as journalists, obviously we're not supposed to 461 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 1: give buy and sell recommendations on investments, and that's probably 462 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: a good thing. Let's let's all be honest. Um. I 463 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: think I'm safe in giving this one recommendation though, and 464 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 1: that is, if you do buy bitcoin, and you store 465 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 1: that bitcoin on your own personal hard drive that's password protected, 466 00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: do not forget the password okay tattooed on your arm. 467 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 1: If you have to write it, write it down somewhere. 468 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: That The Times had a story on a guy Bob 469 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 1: who put all his bitcoin two million dollars worth of 470 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: bitcoin and he he can't remember his password. No more pressure, Sarah, 471 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 1: I can even outdo that though. Uh. Forbes had a 472 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 1: story basically quoting the BBC about a guy in Wales 473 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:34,080 Speaker 1: who threw away his hard drive with three hundred million 474 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 1: worth of bitcoin on it seven years ago. And he's 475 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 1: been buggling the town in Wales, Newport, the city of 476 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: Newport and Wales. He's been bugging them for years about 477 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 1: letting him go explore. They're dump their landfill to try 478 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 1: to find this hard drive. He's offered to give them 479 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 1: I think a quarter of the of the hall if 480 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 1: he can find it, so offering him seventy million if 481 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 1: he if he lets him go and dig up this uh, 482 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,239 Speaker 1: this hard drive. Bob, what do you think would you? 483 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 1: Would you be out there digging in the landfill for 484 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 1: I thought about it, Sarah. If you, if you two 485 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 1: will join me, we can we can split it up three. Well, yeah, 486 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,479 Speaker 1: we'll suit up, we'll get out there and get our 487 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: little trash pickers. We'll be ready for it. And my 488 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 1: hunch was read Mike, I do want to say our 489 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 1: listener who did right in and it's at Chris M 490 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 1: d d C same crazy thing as you this week said, 491 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 1: it's definitely craziest things worthy forgotten password or the guy 492 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 1: digging in the dump. I've never gotten password. It's pretty good, 493 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: all right, Sarah, What do you have for craziest thing? 494 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 1: All right? Well, you just made me think of one more, 495 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 1: so I'll share two then one. Also on the bitcoin spectrum, 496 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 1: Lindsay Lohan, Uh, someone paid her on CAMEO to hype 497 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 1: up bitcoin. So all of a sudden, Lindsay Lohan is 498 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 1: now out there hyping up bitcoin. But I the one 499 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,640 Speaker 1: that really got me this week was there's this company 500 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 1: called zoom Metica. It's a pet medicine company. And I 501 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 1: don't know if either of you actually watched Tiger King 502 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: back in the early quarantine days. It was my obsession. 503 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: I watched it every day, ripped through those Netflix episodes. Well, 504 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 1: Carol Baskin of Tiger King was also paid on CAMEO 505 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: to talk about this company's o Medico is a penny 506 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 1: stock companies now up. This year, we saw more than 507 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 1: one billion shares trade in a single day. I mean, 508 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 1: just unbelievable the types of things that you see these days. 509 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 1: They got their three d bucks worth for that. Oh yeah, 510 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 1: no doubt about that. How about you, Bob, seen anything 511 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 1: crazy this week? Uh? There are a lot of things 512 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 1: that are crazy going on. I I must say this 513 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,200 Speaker 1: is one that I find difficult to answer because we 514 00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: at TINAM and trying to take a long term view 515 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 1: of what's going on, and I try to go boy 516 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 1: short term cziness, you can call it about crazies. We 517 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 1: have a lot of research. We do the research about 518 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: long term trends and how they affect our clients, and 519 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 1: I sort of stay away from the short term issues 520 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 1: that that are that are funny to talk about but 521 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 1: don't really help to think about the kind of long 522 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: term issues that we as investors, we as a company, 523 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: we as a country you have to work on. So 524 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 1: I'm a more long term inclient. But I always enjoy 525 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,879 Speaker 1: here in your h crazy things of the of the week. 526 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 1: Thank you, Bob. I imagine your clients appreciate that approach 527 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 1: to They're not going to be impressed by the by 528 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,719 Speaker 1: you digging in the dump looking for a bit qually 529 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 1: hard drift. I don't think that well, of course, unless 530 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,800 Speaker 1: I find it in the first day or so, and 531 00:34:54,960 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 1: then it's worth it. I think I'll of with the 532 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 1: dumps of whales for the time being, but if you 533 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 1: find it, let me out you'll be You'll be my 534 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:10,799 Speaker 1: first call. Absolutely hands down, but it is. It's been 535 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: an absolute privilege having you on the show today, Bob Hormett. 536 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us. Thank you for letting me 537 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,840 Speaker 1: participate in the show. It's always a fun show to 538 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 1: be on, and I appreciate being What Goes Up. We'll 539 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 1: be back next week. Until then, you can find us 540 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Terminal, website and app, or wherever you 541 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took the 542 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: time to rate and review the show on Apple podcast. 543 00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 1: Some more listeners can find us, and you can find 544 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,359 Speaker 1: us on Twitter, follow me at at Sara Pontzack Mike 545 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,560 Speaker 1: is that very anonymous, and you can also follow Bloomberg 546 00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 1: Podcasts at podcasts. Also, thank you to Charlie Pellett of 547 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and the voice of the New York City 548 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 1: Subway System. What Goes Up is produced by tober Foreheads 549 00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,240 Speaker 1: and ahead of Bloomberg podcast is Francesco Levie. Thanks for listening, 550 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 1: so you next time