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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today

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Speaker 1: when we have Crystal Indeed, we do lots of big

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Speaker 1: developments with regards to Russia, Ukraine and the possibility of

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Speaker 1: nuclear war. Will break all of that down for you

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Speaker 1: this morning, including some new developments just this morning as

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Speaker 1: shooting at a recruitment center, scary stuff that is unfolding

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Speaker 1: around the world. I've also got some new polling kind

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Speaker 1: of contradictory, but one new Pole in particular, looks pretty

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Speaker 1: grim for Democrats. Another one that's somewhat better for them,

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Speaker 1: but even a better picture still shows that they would

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Speaker 1: fall short of retaking the House. We'll break all of

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Speaker 1: that down for you. Also, some federal court ruling that

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Speaker 1: Arizona's abortion law should go into effect. This is one

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Speaker 1: that predated even Arizona statehood and it basically bans all abortions,

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Speaker 1: so once again putting that issue front and center. New

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Speaker 1: questions about whether current President Biden will run for reelection again,

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Speaker 1: and further, not even questions, but a little more certainty

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Speaker 1: about the fact that many Democratic voters do not actually

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Speaker 1: want him to run again. We've got some new developments

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Speaker 1: in that crazy story I broke down for you last

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Speaker 1: week about Brett farre stealing welfare funds intended for poor

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Speaker 1: residents of Mississippi to try to fund his daughter's volleyball stadium.

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Speaker 1: It is so bananas the story. It goes really deep.

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Speaker 1: Now the former governor is trying to hide his text messages.

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Speaker 1: There are new revelations about how this are what it

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Speaker 1: was like, maybe we should use the prison industry to

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Speaker 1: build the stadium, and he was told that it was illegal.

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Speaker 1: And was still like, now we got to move forward.

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Speaker 1: So we've got those text messages and some kind of

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Speaker 1: interesting comments from former White House Press Secretary Jen Saki

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Speaker 1: a little more honest, honestly than I expected her to be.

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Speaker 1: We've got doctor Treta Parsi on to break down exactly

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Speaker 1: what is happening in Auran Saga is looking at the

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Speaker 1: rise of right wing populism in the wake of energy

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Speaker 1: prices spiking, and I'm looking at the budding rivalry between

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Speaker 1: Trump and DeSantis. That's right, Okay, So we've got two announcements.

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Speaker 1: Let's do the first one. Put it up there on

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Speaker 1: the screen Live Show Chicago. We're selling very well, so

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Speaker 1: we want to continue doing that. October fifteenth, We're coming

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Speaker 1: to the VIC Theater. Come and join us. We've got

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Speaker 1: tickets that are on sale right now. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be an amazing show. So number two was Counterpoints, by

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Speaker 1: the way, Counterpoints. Second show was fantastic, Running out the Kinks.

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Speaker 1: I love what they're doing with it. They put one

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Speaker 1: of Ryan's monologues in the middle. I was like, hey, cool,

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Speaker 1: you guys, do whatever you want to do. I was

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Speaker 1: really really enjoying it. Whenever I watch it over the weekend. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I took a listen. I listened to it actually on

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Speaker 1: my way back into DC last night. In the podcast version,

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Speaker 1: flow was great, the topics were super interesting. Both of

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Speaker 1: them are kind of like wonkys, so I learned a

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Speaker 1: lot from it. Good, good vibes. I'm really really pleased

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Speaker 1: with it. I can really agree. Yeah, and they say

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Speaker 1: they're having fun doing it too. They enjoy doing it.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we've got other great content partner that

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Speaker 1: all went up over the weekend. So if you guys

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Speaker 1: can help us, we've got the ten percent discount going

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Speaker 1: on right now. Celebrate the launch of Counterpoints with the

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Speaker 1: annual subscription. It's a link down there, and the description

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Speaker 1: helps fund our expansion and all of that. So administrative out,

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Speaker 1: let's get to the show. Let's start with Russia. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: anything there's nuclear is going to trump everything else in

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Speaker 1: terms of steak. So that's what we're going to choose

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Speaker 1: to start the show with some really troubling rhetoric going

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Speaker 1: back and forth between the US and Russia. Obviously putin

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Speaker 1: offering up the quote I am not bluffing in his

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Speaker 1: latest nuclear threat, which has led to some high stakes

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Speaker 1: backchanneling between the United States and the Putin government. Now,

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Speaker 1: this was actually confirmed by the National Security Advisor Jake

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Speaker 1: Sullivan on Sunday yesterday on The Sunday Show. Let's take

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Speaker 1: a listen to what he said that the US government

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Speaker 1: conveyed to the Russians. How serious was the nuclear threat

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Speaker 1: that Putin made this week, and how will President Biden

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Speaker 1: respond if he makes good on it. We're taking it seriously.

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Speaker 1: It's not the first time President Putin has made a

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Speaker 1: nuclear threat in this conflict. He started way back in

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Speaker 1: February when Russian tanks first rolled across the border brandishing

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Speaker 1: that nuclear card. And that has not deterred US from

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Speaker 1: providing more than fifteen billion dollars in weapons to Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: helping them be able to defend their country, and it

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Speaker 1: will not deter us now. And we have communicated directly

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Speaker 1: privately to the Russians at very high levels that there

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Speaker 1: will be catastrophic consequences for Russia if they use nuclear

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Speaker 1: weapons in Ukraine. We have been clear with them and

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Speaker 1: emphatic with them that the United States will respond decisively

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Speaker 1: alongside our allies and partners, and we have protected those communications,

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Speaker 1: which we have done privately to the Russians, but they

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Speaker 1: well understand what they would face if they went down

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Speaker 1: that dark road, so that means taking the fight directly

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Speaker 1: to Russia. We have communicated to the Russians what the

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Speaker 1: consequences would be, but we've been careful in how we

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Speaker 1: talk about this publicly because from our perspective, we want

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Speaker 1: to lay down the principle that there would be catastrophic consequences,

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Speaker 1: but not engage in a game of rhetorical tit for tat.

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Speaker 1: So the Russians understand where we are. We understand where

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Speaker 1: we are. We are planning for every contingency, and we

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Speaker 1: will do what is necessary to deter Russia from taking

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Speaker 1: the step, and if they do, we will respond decisively.

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Speaker 1: All Right. We played that full clip for a reason there,

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Speaker 1: because there's a lot of very important words. Number one

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Speaker 1: had a straphic consequences last time I checked. That's a

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Speaker 1: pretty clear line in the sand being drawn by the US.

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Speaker 1: And the reason why this matters is look, Putin is

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Speaker 1: the one who's putting it on the table. He's in

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Speaker 1: nuclear armed power and has basically sole decision making. You

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Speaker 1: sent us this thing this morning, Crystal. Secretary of State

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Speaker 1: Anthony Blincoln was asked, He's like, Hey, do the Russians

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Speaker 1: have any chain in command blocks against Putin's authority? Is like, no,

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Speaker 1: not really, He's like, as we understand it, he has

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Speaker 1: sole decision making over one of the world's largest Actually,

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Speaker 1: I think might be the largest in number nuclear arsenal,

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Speaker 1: just in terms of missiles, not necessarily in terms of

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Speaker 1: destructive power, although who the hell knows? Once again, do

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Speaker 1: we really want to find out? So this war of

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Speaker 1: words is one that is incredibly troubling, and it's not

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Speaker 1: just us, you know, the other powers in the Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: across the Atlantic who also have nuclear weapons are responding

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Speaker 1: as well. Let's put this up there. This was from

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Speaker 1: the Financial Times, European based paper. They say Keev's Western

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Speaker 1: allies are boosting nuclear deterrence after Putin's threats. What they

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Speaker 1: specifically point to, on top of Jake Sullivan's comments, are

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Speaker 1: that Western capitals are making contingency plans should Putin take

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Speaker 1: the steps towards acting on his threats of nuclear attacks

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Speaker 1: against Ukraine, sending private messages to the Kremlin about possible consequences.

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Speaker 1: So it's not just the United States that is communicating

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Speaker 1: in the back channel about nukes, but several others saying

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Speaker 1: that quote two other Western officials that a nuclear strike

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Speaker 1: against Ukraine would be unlikely to spark retaliation and kind,

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Speaker 1: but would instead trigger a conventional military response from the

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Speaker 1: Western States to punish Russia. Some of this is rhetorical.

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Speaker 1: It's like nuke Ukraine. It's like, well, then you have

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Speaker 1: a conventional military response. Well, it's like if they've already

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Speaker 1: used nuclear weapons and you have a conventional military response,

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Speaker 1: then the chain of escalation goes up what they as

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Speaker 1: you eventually end up to nuclear Yeah, exactly why you

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Speaker 1: want to avoid these types of scenarios in the first place.

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Speaker 1: And I do want to point out I mean that fits.

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Speaker 1: So what they're saying there is if Russia uses like

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Speaker 1: one of these so called tactical nuclear weapons or some

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Speaker 1: sort of a nuclear test, that they may not respond

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Speaker 1: in kind with some sort of also nuclear weapon detonation.

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Speaker 1: Instead they would use conventional military responses. That fits with

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Speaker 1: what President Biden had said. His quote was that Washington's

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Speaker 1: response would be quote consequential. Depending on the extent of

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Speaker 1: what they do will determine what response would occur. So

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Speaker 1: that starts to give you some more direct sense of

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Speaker 1: how they're thinking about this. But let's be clear, there's

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Speaker 1: no like little bit of nuclear war. And you know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people look at Putin's comments and I

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Speaker 1: think rightly feel like this dude's bluffing. He's desperate, he's

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Speaker 1: you know, he's losing. He knows that he's got to

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Speaker 1: pull out all the stops because his regime and his

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Speaker 1: reign is clearly at stake at this point. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's saber rattling. But you know, anytime someone is out there,

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Speaker 1: like I promise you I'm not bluffing, that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: good sign that they are. But when you're talking about

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Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, even a tiny percentage is obvious something that

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Speaker 1: you have to take extremely extremely We already know that

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Speaker 1: this is a brash and not necessarily strategic minded individual.

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Speaker 1: I mean, invading Ukraine was a catastrophic decision united the

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Speaker 1: West against him, basically, you know, just drawn him now

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Speaker 1: into a quagmire. Even if he does win, the affairs

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Speaker 1: Russia in the eyes of the world will never really

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Speaker 1: be the same for the next decade or so, specifically

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Speaker 1: for the rest of Putin's reign. Now, maybe he doesn't care,

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Speaker 1: but I think by all indications this is not I

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Speaker 1: don't even think the biggest like Russia Koper on the

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Speaker 1: planet could claim that this is all going well for Putin.

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Speaker 1: You can say it was a mixed bag. It's not

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Speaker 1: going as bad as some like Western people would hope. So,

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Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean that on balance it's good. And

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Speaker 1: at the same time, what I remain very concerned by

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Speaker 1: is what I would say is not necessarily controlled opposition,

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Speaker 1: but allowed opposition. What Putin and the Kremlin are allowing

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Speaker 1: in terms of descent to foster in Russia. We pointed

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Speaker 1: specifically ahead of that mobilization to well, all the if

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Speaker 1: he snicks, they're not represented on Russian TV. All the

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Speaker 1: nationalists who are like he needs to ramp up, he

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Speaker 1: needs to mobilize they were, And then lo and behold

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Speaker 1: he acknowledges this opposition in his speech and is like,

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Speaker 1: I hear you, I am now going to draft three

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand so called reservists. Well, lately, let's throw this

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Speaker 1: next one up there. This just fits even more in

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Speaker 1: the playbook. Russian State TV talking head This is from Maxidon,

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Speaker 1: he's the ft bureau chief over there in Moscow, says

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Speaker 1: Russia will be better off in a nuclear war because

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Speaker 1: the US is more densely populated. So once again, this

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Speaker 1: is controlled. This is allowed discussion from the Kremlin, and

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Speaker 1: they're making it. They're trying to make it clear this

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Speaker 1: is not a joke. We have a nuclear deterrence for

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Speaker 1: a reason. I also want to say this, there is

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Speaker 1: no such thing as a quote tactical nuke. We had

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Speaker 1: this whole argument back in the nineteen fifties, a lot

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Speaker 1: of intellectuals, you know, after the nuclear bomb was detonated

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Speaker 1: in Hiroshima and Nagasaki said well, look, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: a difference between rategic nuclear weapons and a tactical nuclear

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Speaker 1: We the tactical nuke could have a battlefield purpose. And

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Speaker 1: Eisenhower was like, what are you talking about. If you

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Speaker 1: explode a nuke, the chain of escalation goes all the

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Speaker 1: way up and you go strategic within twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: This was a well settled thing in nuclear doctrine now

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Speaker 1: for a long time. So the idea that it's back

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Speaker 1: is actually just shocking insanity. In order to even see

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Speaker 1: it in the year twenty twenty two, we're forgetting many

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Speaker 1: of these like kind of hard fought nuclear taboo lessons

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Speaker 1: that we had throughout the Cold War, And what scares

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Speaker 1: the hell out of me is some return to some

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Speaker 1: Cuban missile crisis type situation. Relations between US and the

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Speaker 1: Kremlin are at their worst to ever apparently right now,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Chinese Military Command is not even answering

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Speaker 1: phone calls from the Joint Cheese Staff. Here in the US,

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Speaker 1: we have two nuclear powers like this. They're talking to

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Speaker 1: each other, they're meeting, We're trying to read tea leaves.

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Speaker 1: That's the opposite of the situation that we've learned that

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Speaker 1: we should have post the Cuban Missile crisis through the

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixties. Yeah, I mean, on the positive side, at least,

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Speaker 1: what the intelligence reports that are being publicly reported in

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Speaker 1: the news media say is that we haven't seen him

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Speaker 1: sort of like moving weapons into position and actually preparing

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Speaker 1: for some sort of a nuclear strike. And according again

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Speaker 1: to the reports, there's a decent level of confidence among

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Speaker 1: the US military that they would see some sort of

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Speaker 1: preparation before this actually occurred. So take that for what

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Speaker 1: it's worth. Today, what the administration is saying is that

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Speaker 1: they take it very seriously. How could you not. Biden

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Speaker 1: is apparently saying privately, he's really working to avoid World

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Speaker 1: War three. But at the same time, you have someone who,

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Speaker 1: as you said Soccer, has behaved incredibly irrationally and who's

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Speaker 1: back is up against the wall at this point. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's just no denying how poorly this is going for Putin,

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Speaker 1: and no one expects this mobilization, whether it's three hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand more or less than that, to ultimately really turn

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Speaker 1: the tide, because you're you're talking about bodies, You're not

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Speaker 1: talking about people who are really skilled. They're receiving something

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Speaker 1: like two weeks of training. Now. Many of these individuals,

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Speaker 1: though according to the reports, again not all have seen

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Speaker 1: some sort of prior military experience, so you would think

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Speaker 1: they at least know how to handle a weapon, or

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Speaker 1: at least they did at some point in their life.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at the videos that are coming

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Speaker 1: out of Rush, I mean, a lot of these men

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Speaker 1: aren't there. On the older side, it's there's obviously a

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Speaker 1: lot of resistance. As I mentioned before, there's actually shooting

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Speaker 1: at a recruitment center this morning. I mean, there seems

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Speaker 1: to be and it's very hard to judge from the outside,

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Speaker 1: but there does seem to be significant upheaval over this mobilization,

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Speaker 1: which is why I mean Putin anticipated this, This is

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Speaker 1: why he tried this initial strategy of let's have the

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Speaker 1: you know all volunteer fighting force, let's try to protect

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Speaker 1: the population from any of the sort of reverberations. So

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Speaker 1: he is on very very shaky ground. And that all

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Speaker 1: means that, you know, these things that might seem like

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Speaker 1: they would be insane actions when he is in a

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Speaker 1: corner thinking about whether he is going to survive in

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Speaker 1: a position of power, whether his regime is going to survive,

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Speaker 1: whether the country is going to move forward. That's once

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Speaker 1: these seemingly insane decisions start to be contemplated by people

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Speaker 1: like Putin. Yeah, and there's an interesting thread here that

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Speaker 1: I found late last night from a professor from my

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Speaker 1: graduate program, Kaitlin Talmadge at Georgetown. Here's what she writes,

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Speaker 1: Putin's mobilization effort has proven immediately chaotic and unpopular. There

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Speaker 1: are a bunch of substantive reasons to think it won't

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Speaker 1: just improve military performance. If ever, the prospect of Russian mobilization,

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Speaker 1: combined with looming winter creates a window of opportunity where

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Speaker 1: Ukraine may push hard to make gains in the south

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Speaker 1: comparable to those that it has made now in the northeast.

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Speaker 1: We are getting more reports of Russian forces in the

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Speaker 1: south being in disarray. This sets up a non crazy

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Speaker 1: scenario where Ukraine pushes hard against the vulnerable and extended

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Speaker 1: Russian forces and makes significant territorial gains. If the Russians

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Speaker 1: not only lose personnel in the scenario but much of

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Speaker 1: their best remaining equipment, it would be a second humiliating

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Speaker 1: defeat for Putin and threaten political support for mobileation at home,

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Speaker 1: which is what would open the door to a possible

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Speaker 1: nuclear scenario and Putin from his rhetoric. And you know,

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Speaker 1: at this point, I think we should take the guy seriously.

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Speaker 1: Even if he does bluff and lie, at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, he did invade Ukraine. Well, he seems

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Speaker 1: to believe in his head that he could use a

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Speaker 1: quote unquote tactical nuke they don't have necessarily. I guess

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Speaker 1: the same nuclear taboo over there, or at least in

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Speaker 1: Putin's mind, to try and basically just force a Kiev

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Speaker 1: to capitulate overnight, and from that point he wins the war.

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Speaker 1: It's over. NATO doesn't even get the chance in order

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Speaker 1: to quote unquote escalate or respond. Now, I think that's

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Speaker 1: fantasy and that's crazy. But in the minds of a

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Speaker 1: crazy man who is already you know, high stake, scambal

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Speaker 1: has pressure from all sides. It has some barren in reality, right,

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Speaker 1: you could see how somebody might arrive there. Well, if

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Speaker 1: that's the case, and this is what she writes, he's like, look,

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Speaker 1: is Russian nuclear use right now likely? No? Is it

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Speaker 1: more likely than it was eight months ago and three

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Speaker 1: months ago? Yes? So I'm like, okay, Well, well that

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Speaker 1: still bears a lot of conversation and frankly a lot

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Speaker 1: of scrutiny of US policy and Western policy to make

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Speaker 1: sure that we avoid anything anywhere even close to that,

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Speaker 1: because that is not a scenario any of us wanted.

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Speaker 1: I saw some psycho in New York Times this morning

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Speaker 1: making the case that we need to escalate both with

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia and with China. Like, what the hell

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Speaker 1: are you thinking about? Yeah, American Enterprise Institute opinion writer

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Speaker 1: over at the writing an op ed for the New

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Speaker 1: York Times. But yeah, that was the argument, was like,

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Speaker 1: we need to be more hawkish in both of these

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Speaker 1: places because exactly what we need is World War three

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Speaker 1: and World War four all at the same time. It's

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Speaker 1: just completely ridiculous. Indeed, let's move on then and allude

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Speaker 1: to specifically what you were talking about, which is domestic

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Speaker 1: strife inside of Russia. Even Putin's allies are speaking publicly

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Speaker 1: against the mobilization. Let's put this up there over the

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Speaker 1: on the screen. Russian's two most senior lawmakers address the complaints,

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Speaker 1: saying that they might solve the quote excesses that have

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Speaker 1: stoked major public anger. That is specifically because regional officials

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Speaker 1: inside of Russia are coming to the Kremlin and to

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Speaker 1: Putin and to many lawmakers apparently and just saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: like this is actually really unpopular here at home. What

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Speaker 1: they point to here is that the mounting resistance to

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Speaker 1: Putin is at all levels of society. So not only

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Speaker 1: do we see crystal those protest. Again, look, we're not

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Speaker 1: in Russia. It's hard to gauge what exactly is going on.

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Speaker 1: What we can't say is there are protests to what

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Speaker 1: extent how much popular support do they have. I have

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Speaker 1: no idea. I'm not there on the ground, but they

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Speaker 1: exist and they got media attention. That's number one Number

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Speaker 1: two is at the regional level and at many of

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Speaker 1: the mobilization centers and more. There are displays of quote

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Speaker 1: unquote refue Usniks and of others who are doing their

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Speaker 1: best to try and get out of this. There's reports

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Speaker 1: and video that are coming out of people saying, you

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Speaker 1: need to do your duty right now. Enough playtime boys,

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Speaker 1: you know, at people who are basically protesting at the

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Speaker 1: so called mobilization centers, they're threatened then with consequences. So

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Speaker 1: the state is mobilizing to a place that we haven't

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Speaker 1: seen from like the war machine in Russia since I

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Speaker 1: guess the days of the Soviet Union. I mean it

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Speaker 1: really at a very very small level. It's not even

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Speaker 1: close to the same. But this mirrors Russian tactics in

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Speaker 1: World War One and in World War Two in the

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Speaker 1: way they treated their population and compelled them in order

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Speaker 1: to quote unquote fight for them. Their tremendous advantage in

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Speaker 1: warfare has always been they have a ton of bodies,

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Speaker 1: and they're basically willing to mobilize their entire authoritarian state

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Speaker 1: to force them and kill as many as possible to

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Speaker 1: try and have defense. But their problem is this is

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Speaker 1: a war of offense. And you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: things that we pointed to in the beginning was this

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Speaker 1: is a lot like what's going on. When Russian invaded

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Speaker 1: Finland Winter War nineteen thirty nine, they lost like one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand people and it was specifically because tactics like this,

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Speaker 1: and they had a population that was like, hey, I

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Speaker 1: don't want to do that, Like, why do I want

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Speaker 1: to conquer Finland? I got nothing to do with this. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I was listening to Michael Kaufman on a podcast yesterday

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Speaker 1: and he laid out what was kind of, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's very skeptical that this mobilization is going to really

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Speaker 1: make much of a difference for Russia, but he laid

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Speaker 1: out what was kind of the best case scenario for them,

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Speaker 1: which is that they use these bodies, basically untrained bodies

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Speaker 1: that are I mean imagining two weeks of training and

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Speaker 1: then you're in war and basically a meat shield. I

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Speaker 1: had to say, that's exactly what it is. And so

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Speaker 1: he's saying, Okay, use them, like stick them in the

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Speaker 1: trenches and they basically hold the defensive line. You reconstitute

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Speaker 1: the forces that are on the ground, the like remaining

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Speaker 1: actually trained, skilled forces that you have and then use

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Speaker 1: them for some sort of an offense. That's kind of

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Speaker 1: the best case like strategy that they could employ at

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Speaker 1: this point. And you know, I don't think any US

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Speaker 1: should be overly certain about how any of this goes,

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Speaker 1: because obviously, you know, every analyst has gotten significant parts

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Speaker 1: of this wrong at every turn. But you know, I

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Speaker 1: think there continues to be a lot of skepticism that

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Speaker 1: this is going to make a huge difference militarily, while domestically,

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Speaker 1: you know, it does look like there is the population

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Speaker 1: previously had been kind of ignoring the war. They kind

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Speaker 1: of weren't really paying attention to it. There's some was

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Speaker 1: some independent pulling to that effect that was in this

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Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal piece that we had up before. It's

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Speaker 1: had recent independent polls showed most Russians had lost interest

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Speaker 1: in the conflict. But now, even though what Putin is

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Speaker 1: saying is that it's just for people at prior military experience,

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Speaker 1: you know, they call them reservists, they're not exactly reservists

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Speaker 1: in the way that we think of it. Even though

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Speaker 1: they're saying, Okay, it's going to be limited to three

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand people, there's a lot of reasons to be

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Speaker 1: skeptical of that claim. Every mother, wife, daughter in Russia

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Speaker 1: is now worried about their man, and we're gonna put

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Speaker 1: up here, we can put up a six. Putin's draft

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Speaker 1: draws resistance in Russia's far flung regions. So far they

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Speaker 1: seem to be and again, you know this based on

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Speaker 1: the reporting, the best that we can get seem to

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Speaker 1: be concentrating their mobilization in the sort of like more rural,

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Speaker 1: less educated, more far flung regions of Russia. And the

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Speaker 1: reason they do that is because they think, you know,

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Speaker 1: these are people who, first of all, they don't have

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Speaker 1: a lot of as much access to the internet, so

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Speaker 1: they're just fed government propagandas so they're more likely to

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Speaker 1: be like staunch Krumlin supporters, or at least believe the

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Speaker 1: Krumlin narrative. That's number one. Number two, they have lower

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Speaker 1: levels of education. They think that they're going to put

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Speaker 1: up less of a fight. And this article speaks to

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Speaker 1: you know a number of people who are on the

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Speaker 1: ground and these rural, remote villages who were saying like

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Speaker 1: they're they're drafting you know a massive percentage of our

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Speaker 1: men and we're screwed for winter, and like, you know,

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Speaker 1: our basic economy and the reindeer herders and all of this,

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Speaker 1: it's really at risk. So even in these places that

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Speaker 1: they thought would be their strongest bastions of support, they're

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Speaker 1: finding a lot of resistance, a lot of anger, a

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Speaker 1: lot of fear, and frankly, a lot of desperation. So

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Speaker 1: again it's very limited what we can see into, you know,

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Speaker 1: the whole of that country and how people are feeling

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Speaker 1: and how they're responding to it and all of that,

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Speaker 1: but there does seem to be there was such an

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Speaker 1: attempt to shield the population from what was going on

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine. Putin has really ripped the mask off with

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Speaker 1: this one move and made it super, super real, tangible

430
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: and frightening for people across the country. They have a

431
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 1: quote from a woman in one of these remote villages

432
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 1: in that piece, and she says on television they say

433
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: that this is about defending the fatherland, but the threat

434
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 1: is now not so much to the fatherland but to

435
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: our own lives. So it was one thing when it

436
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: was this sort of distant conflict, but now that the

437
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 1: possibility of their sons, husbands, loved ones being sent you know,

438
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: like meat shields into this war with little to no training.

439
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: Now that really changes the way people feel about it.

440
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: And the last thing I want to say about this is,

441
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 1: you know, I keep bringing up this shooting at the

442
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 1: recruitment center. And the reason I think this is significant

443
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:27,239
Speaker 1: is up to this point, the overwhelming majority of the

444
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 1: protest and resistance to this war that we've seen has

445
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 1: been peaceful. Well, we know what happens in societies when

446
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: peaceful avenues of descent are shut down, then people morph

447
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 1: into not peaceful descent. And we've already had I think

448
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: it was like ten military recruitment centers that have been

449
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: set on fire. Now you have this, you know, this shooting.

450
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: So it's a very volatile and dangerous situation, I would

451
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 1: say on the ground, as best we can tell from here, absolutely,

452
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: and all it will require is more authoritarianism on Putin's part.

453
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: That's what's going to happen. And that's really what the

454
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: sad part is. I mean, everybody talks about in the

455
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: days is so a union Like whenever your son was drafted,

456
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 1: you basically said goodbye. You're like, I'm not going to

457
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: see this guy again. I mean it basically a seventy

458
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: percent chance of dying within I think it was like

459
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,239
Speaker 1: the first month on the front line. We don't know

460
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 1: what the casualty rate is in Russia. Is it that bad? No?

461
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 1: Is it the six thousand they claim are killed. Absolutely not,

462
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 1: that's a laughable number. What we do know, you know

463
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: a little bit of open source stuff that trickles out.

464
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. This is

465
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: a photo from a Russian airport. Just look at the

466
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: number of just young men military age males I guess

467
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: to use a military term, that are just flooding the

468
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: airport and those border cross so young. I see some

469
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: white hair, and there's some dudes there who are like

470
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: probably right on the cusp, and like I'm getting the

471
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 1: hell out of here. And there was some really sad videos,

472
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: you know, talk you know, especially like you said, from

473
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 1: the far flung of people kissing their wives goodbye and

474
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 1: getting on the bus and they're just weeping because I mean,

475
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: they they know, they're not stupid, they know what possible

476
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: fate awaits them. And you know, let's put the next

477
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 1: one up there on the screen. We're talking about here

478
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: about Google searches in Russia or search engine searches. This

479
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,479
Speaker 1: is for how to break your own arm, massive spike

480
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 1: on the day of mobilization, same thing. I mean, you

481
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: have a lot of people who want to try and

482
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: get out of combat, not get drafted, get some sort

483
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: of military exemption. It really is just a terrible, terrible situation.

484
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: So there's a domestic strife in Russia for sure, to

485
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: what extent. Who knows you can't have war without domestic strife.

486
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 1: So is it very big? Is it a threat to

487
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 1: the regime? I don't know yet. You know, there's just

488
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 1: really no way to say. The way that these things

489
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 1: go is, of course they're going to get a ton

490
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: of press here in the West, and you know we

491
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: can and should cover it. We can't nor should we

492
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: overstate though threat that this could be. It could all

493
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: work out in Putin's favor, right there is you know,

494
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 1: sometimes it's always darkest before the dawn. But I personally

495
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: don't necessarily see that. But like I said, been humbled

496
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: by making predictions in Ukraine. Like, all we can say

497
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: is it's a tragedy for the three hundred thousand who

498
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 1: have been drafted here. I mean, yeah, yeah, that's the

499
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: other way. And he knows whether it's true or not.

500
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: Some of this could be supports to how many of

501
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: these guys actually make it to the front line, maybe fifty.

502
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 1: I mean, well that realistically, you know, change the reality

503
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: on the ground. That's what Kaufman has been saying as well.

504
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: So it's everybody is in a wait and see. But

505
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: it's bad for the Ukrainians obviously gonna have more people

506
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 1: on there. It's bad for you know, the actual draftees

507
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: themselves and Pootin himself in a very very sticky situation

508
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: of his own making. So let's make sure that we

509
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,719
Speaker 1: always emphasize that too. Yeah. Finally, I have to make

510
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: sure that we highlight this politically, making some big grounds

511
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: by the Russians to try and lay territorial claim to

512
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: these eastern regions in Ukraine. Let's put this up there

513
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: on the screen. Russian authorities literally going door to door

514
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: and in some cases with Kalishnikov rifles in order to

515
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 1: quote collect to vote for the referendum. I truly wonder

516
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: what the sure everyone felt free to vote their number

517
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: that they're gonna go with, you know, you always usually

518
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 1: they go with like seventy something like that. Well, there

519
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: was some distance. It was overwhelming see, we allowed them

520
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: to vote how they run. If you go ninety eight,

521
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: then everybody just knows you're a clown. Then you look

522
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 1: like some African dictator. But if you go with us seventy,

523
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: everybody's like, all right, everybody already knows, okay, clown listen,

524
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 1: it's clown worthy regardless. And that's what's happening here. Police

525
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 1: arrested also hundreds of people in Ukraine who tried to protest. Actually,

526
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 1: some of the people in these regions could now be

527
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: mobilized for this conscription and be thrown against their own countrymen,

528
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 1: which is insane when you consider that. And look, you've

529
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: got military installed officials by Moscow that are organizing these referendums.

530
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 1: I'm they'll probably release the votes, you know, whenever they

531
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: find it most strategic. But as people point out, first

532
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 1: of all, these are war torn regions. Half the people

533
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 1: who were pro Ukraine they left to go back to

534
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: the safe areas of UKRAINUS, so it's already ludicrous. Number two,

535
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 1: the vote itself cannot be trusted whenever you literally have

536
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: people going door to door the military and Russian installed

537
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: authorities they are trying to do this, however, to legitimize

538
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,479
Speaker 1: these regions in the eyes of the Russian constitution like

539
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: they did with Crimea, to then lay and start this

540
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: as a war of defense and not of offense. So yeah,

541
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 1: if these regions our territory, mingo, hey we had a vote,

542
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: they said they want to be part of us. We're

543
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 1: just defending you. And the other reason that that matters

544
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 1: is to tie it into the first block, which is

545
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: that the Russians, and Putin specifically recently updated his own

546
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,479
Speaker 1: nuclear doctrine to say that they would use nuclear weapons

547
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,719
Speaker 1: to defend the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. And remember,

548
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: territorial integrity is in the eye of the beholder, as

549
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: in what they believe to be their territory, not necessarily

550
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: what we believe to be their territorist so that remains

551
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: the case. And to tie it back to the original

552
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: discussion about nukes, Putin made a lot of waves when

553
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: he expanded these sort of Russian nuclear doctrine to include

554
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: defending territorial integrity just in advance of these referendums. So

555
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: it's very clear the threat here. Basically we are laying

556
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: claim to these areas, we are saying these are now

557
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 1: part of Russia. We are holding these sham referendums to

558
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: give some fig leaf of a justification for why we're

559
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: doing that. And now if you breach our territory, we have,

560
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: you know, put this nuclear threat out there. So it

561
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: is a very very dangerous situation and it is insane

562
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: to think about what you were saying that. You know.

563
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: The other piece of this is, Okay, now that we're

564
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: claiming you're part of Russia, you're also subject to the

565
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: same draft that the whole rest of the country is.

566
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: So people who are in that region, who are you know,

567
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: pro Ukrainian nationalists, could be forced into being drafted and

568
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: probably to go. Yeah, I mean that's basically you face

569
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 1: the gun at home or you face the gun on

570
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: the front line. I mean, I cannot imagine having to

571
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: be put absolutely situation. But it is one day have

572
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: put their own people in many, many times. And in

573
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: fact those are people, you know, the far flowing regions

574
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 1: of Russia we discussed, although those are always the ones

575
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: who suffer the most at the hands of the leaders

576
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: in Moscow, and generally their lives are considered completely expendable. Yeah,

577
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: you're talking about places that during the winter hit like

578
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: negative ninety degrees fahrenheit. Some of them are literal reindeer hunters.

579
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 1: It's not right, like actual cocka where when they're like,

580
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,719
Speaker 1: you can't send our men to this war, they're like,

581
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: we will literally freeze to death. If one of the

582
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: women they interviewed was like, my son hasn't finished the

583
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: floor in our house because they got flooded over the summer,

584
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: and my you know, like my daughter in law is

585
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: pregnant and she's got little kids. We literally don't know

586
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: how we're going to make it through the winter. That

587
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: is what they're being subjected to. It's terrible. Yeah, absolutely

588
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 1: all right. Moving on to the domestic front, and some

589
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: interesting polling, somewhat conflicting two different pictures of where we're

590
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: headed in the midterms, or at least where we are today.

591
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this first one up on

592
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: the screen. This is a very bad poll for Democrats

593
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: right here. Washington Post ABC poll shows Republicans in the

594
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: driver's seats. It says GOP leads the generic ballot by

595
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: five percentage points among likely voters. Republicans continue to dominate

596
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: the issue's most important to voters, including the largest lead

597
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: on crime since nineteen ninety one. They've got it listed

598
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: there is to keep it up on the screen, guys.

599
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: Economy continues to be number one in terms of importance.

600
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 1: Republicans have a sixteen point lead on that issue. Second,

601
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: this was kind of surprising to me education in schools

602
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: of Second, Democrats actually have a narrow lead on that

603
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 1: one D plus six Just after that is inflation. So

604
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: economy and inflation obviously still top of mind. Republicans with

605
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: a plus nineteen advantage on that. Then comes crime Republicans

606
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: plus fourteen. Then comes abortion Democrats plus twenty. A few

607
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: other things when you look into this poll that are

608
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: super noteworthy. First of all, and this may as well,

609
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 1: I mean, this may be the most significant thing we

610
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: look back at if the midterms go very well. For Republicans.

611
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: Seventy four percent say the economy is in bad shape.

612
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 1: That's up from fifty eight percent in the spring after

613
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: Biden took office, and the GOP leads Democrats, as I

614
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: just said, significantly on the issue of the economy. Also

615
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: worth remembering, so back when Democrats you can take this

616
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: element down off the screen, back when Democrats did well

617
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. You know what the generic ballot was

618
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: in favor of Democrats fifty five thirty nine Okay, fifty

619
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: five percent said they wanted Democrats on that generic ballot,

620
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent Republicans, And of course it ends up

621
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: being a good year for Democrats. Now you look at

622
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: those numbers, and you have Republicans with a five point

623
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: lead on the generic ballot. As we know, because of

624
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 1: structural issues, Republicans do not need to win the generic

625
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 1: ballot by as much as Democrats in order to win

626
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: control of the House. The last thing that I thought

627
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: was really notable and kind of falls in line with

628
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,959
Speaker 1: some of the questions that were raised about how significant

629
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: those special election results were that went for Democrats. They

630
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 1: note that among those living in congressional districts that are

631
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: rated as at least somewhat competitive by five point thirty eight,

632
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide fifty five

633
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: to thirty four percent. That is nearly as large as

634
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: the Republican lead in solid GOP districts. Democrats then have

635
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: a huge advantage in solid Democratic districts thirty five points,

636
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: they say, pointing to a potential over vote where they

637
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: are most prevalent. So again, what we saw in those

638
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: special elections is that Republicans continue to do very well

639
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: in Republican areas. They even expanded the Trump margin in

640
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: some of these rural areas. It was in the blue

641
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: a lot of college towns that Democrats just surged the

642
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: polls and were able to outperform. But that may not

643
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: be replicable across a lot of these different swing districts.

644
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: So that's what they're pointing to you. I agree. You know,

645
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: I've done like a bit of a horseshoe. I'm just

646
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: coming back to the red wave theory, honestly. I mean,

647
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, you bet on the fundamentals.

648
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: The polling misses all look just like they were back

649
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. You have high crime and you have

650
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 1: high inflation. It's not a it's a no brainer. These

651
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: are the basic building blocks of Republican victories for five

652
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 1: election cycles. Should you bet against that? Is abortion a

653
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 1: confounding factor? Yes? To what extent? I genuinely don't know.

654
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 1: I mean these special elections, like you said, higher population

655
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: of educated voters, maybe more disproportionately, you know, ones where

656
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: you might have more of an impact of high d turnout.

657
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: But that doesn't necessarily apply at the House level for

658
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: Airy Manner districts and Crystal. I mean, if you have

659
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 1: people who are a ton more likely to vote still

660
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 1: being the Republicans, even if more Dems do come out,

661
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 1: because there's just so many more people pissed off about

662
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: the economy and inflation and crime, I just think it

663
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: all washes out pretty simply. Well. I also was thinking

664
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 1: about it in the context of the monolo that you're

665
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: going to do today about the surging right wing in

666
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 1: a number of European countries, and like, you know, these trends,

667
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 1: like we're not immune from these trends, the trends that

668
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: are happening. So yeah, when I look at it too,

669
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 1: I just keep coming back to the economy is bad.

670
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: People feel like the economy is going bad. Gas prices

671
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: are not going down anymore. I mean, this is Democrats

672
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: kind of had a hot hand part for a little bit,

673
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 1: and they did gain ground. I don't think there's any

674
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: doubt about the fact that postdops Democrats gained ground both

675
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: on the issue of abortion and you had some you know,

676
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: gas prices coming down, and that helped them a little

677
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 1: bit too. Joe Biden got a few things past, it

678
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 1: seemed like they had a little bit of momentum that

679
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: progress where they were. You know, every week the generic

680
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 1: ballot will get a little bit better for them, a

681
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: little bit better for them, a little bit better for them.

682
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: At the best case scenario, that progress has stalled, right,

683
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 1: and they needed it to continue to go, certainly for

684
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: them to be able to win the House, and perhaps

685
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 1: even for them to be able to hold all onto

686
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: the Senate, which I still think the Senate. I wouldn't

687
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: go so far as you do Sager to say this

688
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: a red wave. I still think the Senate is going

689
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 1: to be very very closely fought. If I had to

690
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: say today, I'd say Republicans probably pick up both, just

691
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 1: because those underlying factors the and you look at the

692
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:23,280
Speaker 1: historical track record, the party in power typically fares poorly

693
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 1: in the first midterm. It's hard for me to imagine

694
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 1: that abortion changed the game that much that it really

695
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: flipped it from a red wave year to what would

696
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: be I mean, if Democrats hold the House and hold

697
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 1: the Senate, that should be considered basically a Democratic wave

698
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: year because it is so unprecedented in terms of the history.

699
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: So it's still hard for me to imagine that is

700
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: the case. So when I saw this, I thought, you know,

701
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 1: this kind of this kind of squares with my analysis

702
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: of where things stand right now, where democratic progress at

703
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 1: best has stalled out short of where they need to be.

704
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: They may have peaked a little bit too early, and

705
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 1: you could you're not really seeing it yet, but you

706
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: could start to see some backsliding towards the GOP here

707
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,399
Speaker 1: in the final days. I agree. I mean, look, it's

708
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: difficult and obviously confounding poles too. Yeah. Well, the next

709
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 1: one up there from CBS. CBS actually says that while

710
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: Republicans remain in the position to take the majority, that

711
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: their lead has actually shrunk to only an R plus

712
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: ten gain in the House of Representatives, and they say

713
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: that Dems have actually gained there on the generic Yeah,

714
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 1: but then I don't know, I mean, on the other hand, like,

715
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: this is definitely a much better poll for Democrats, no

716
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,359
Speaker 1: doubt about it. On the other hand, it still shows

717
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: them losing the House. So you're like, right, you know,

718
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: on the one hand, yeah, they're conflicting. On the other

719
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: both are like Republicans are going to take the House

720
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: if things stay as they are right now. Now, they

721
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: had a lot more numbers in here that were positive

722
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: indicators for Democrats, in particular about how much abortion is

723
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,080
Speaker 1: mattering to their vote. They say abortion is now the

724
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: top issue for Democratic women's seven and ten women say

725
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: Canada has to agree with them on abortion to get

726
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: their vote. That's higher than other issues tested. So it's

727
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: a little bit different than the picture in the last

728
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 1: poll where they just ask people is this important to you?

729
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,919
Speaker 1: Here they really try to get at like how much

730
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,879
Speaker 1: does this actually matter for your vote, which is kind

731
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: of a different thing because you know voters, they may say, like,

732
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 1: you know, that one thing is super important to them,

733
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: but ultimately, when it comes down to it, they have

734
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 1: these like litmus test issues where they're almost cultural tokens

735
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 1: of if you're with me or you're against me, and

736
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: abortion has become that for a lot of a lot

737
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 1: of Democrats and I think some independence as well here too,

738
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: So that's why they're picking up a more favorable result

739
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: for Democrats ultimately, but again, even with this more favorable

740
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 1: result and better numbers for Democrats, it still shows them

741
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: losing the House, so important to keep that in mind. However,

742
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: on the other hand, this is the you know again,

743
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: it does sort of feel like in this election, the

744
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: more you zoom out, the better it looks for Republicans.

745
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: The more you zoom in, you start to have more questions.

746
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 1: Let's go and put this next piece up on the

747
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 1: screen and Arizona judge ruled that Arizona can't enforce their

748
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: near total abortion pan that was passed before Arizona was

749
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: even a state. Okay, back in nineteen oh one was

750
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 1: when this ban, which is quite drug codian. It bans

751
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 1: all abortions in the state except when the procedure is

752
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: necessary to save the mother's life. The way that has

753
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,919
Speaker 1: been interpreted in other places is actually extremely stringent. It's

754
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: not like it's not like we can foresee a complication

755
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 1: for the mother. It's like, no, you have to be

756
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: on death doorstep today for us to move forward with

757
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: this abortion. Of course, doctor's very concerned about liability and

758
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: getting like jailed for performing an abortion on a woman

759
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: who they deemed life to be at risk. But you know,

760
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 1: a judge then comes in and says, no, we don't

761
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: think our life was at risk. It's a really drug

762
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: conian ruling. Abortion rights advocacy group Planned Parenthood said the

763
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 1: ruling quote has the practical and deplorable result of sending

764
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 1: Arizonas back nearly one hundred and fifty years, which is

765
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 1: kind of like literally true. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbes

766
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: said she was quote outraged and devastated by the decision.

767
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 1: The Republican Attorney General said, we applaud the court for

768
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 1: upholding the will of the legislature from nineteen oh one

769
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 1: and providing clarity and uniformity on this important issue. You

770
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 1: can hear in the difference in that rhetoric there. The

771
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: Republican is just trying to be as like neutral as possible,

772
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: and the Democrats are clearly like, you know, guns blazing,

773
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: ready to raise hell about this decision. Yeah. I think

774
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: that's like you said, you zoom out, and I'm like, look,

775
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 1: you got high crime, you got high inflation, you zoom in,

776
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: and you're like, well, carry Lake is kind of crazy.

777
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 1: I'm like, Blake has gotten himself in some problems. Abortion

778
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: obviously is if on the off chance that they do

779
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: lose or not off chance in the like relative toss

780
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: up that they do lose, this will probably be because

781
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 1: of why and President Biden really trying to lean into this,

782
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 1: make it as much about abortion as possible, and spoke

783
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: about that at a recent rally. Let's take a listen.

784
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: But if you give me two more Democratic senators in

785
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 1: the United States Senate, I promise you. I promise you,

786
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: we're going to codify Rome. First time I've heard him

787
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 1: say that so claratively, Crystal, Yeah, I think that's really significant. Actually,

788
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 1: that is quite significant. I mean, you know, it'll be

789
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 1: a big fundraising draw. The Dems have a hell of

790
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: a lot of money. Mark Kelly's swimming in cash. He's

791
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: got like over one hundred million in reserve. John Fetterman's

792
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: got a ton of cash. So to the extent that

793
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 1: they might be able to overcome this, it's probably going

794
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: to be on the backs of this. At the same time,

795
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: you know, Oz has been pretty good about handling a board,

796
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 1: way better so I think than Blake Masters. So I

797
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: don't know. I think Blake is probably the one who

798
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 1: is in the biggest trouble on abortion of all of

799
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 1: the candidates who were in the toss up states. Yeah. Well,

800
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 1: and he seems like he knows that. But the fact

801
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 1: that he like went in and edited his own website

802
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 1: to be like that's stuff I said during the primary.

803
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 1: I don't really feel that way anymore. The play here

804
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:16,439
Speaker 1: politically is very clear. Democrats want abortion to be very

805
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: clearly on the ballot in every single Senate race. And

806
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham, I think, gave them a little bit of

807
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 1: an assist with that because you could say, yeah, okay,

808
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: Oz has been okay on abortion. But you can point

809
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 1: to that and say Republicans, if they get powered, they

810
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:31,720
Speaker 1: want to ban abortion. They want to institute abortion bans

811
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 1: that are you know, nationwide. This whole messaging that they

812
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: tried to lean into of like, oh, we just want

813
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: to leave it up to the states. Lindsey Graham sort of,

814
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: you know, blew a hole in that. Now you have

815
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 1: Biden very clearly saying, hey, making a case because previously

816
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: it wasn't clear of all right, so you already have

817
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: control of the Senate and you haven't done anything really

818
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 1: with it in terms of abortion protection. So what would

819
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 1: be different this time around if we give you back

820
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: control of the Senate. So he's saying really clearly here, hey,

821
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: if I get if I can get the trouble making

822
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 1: Maker's mansion and cinema out of the way, then we

823
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 1: actually could get. What this means is get rid of

824
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: the filibuster at least for abortion rights in order to

825
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 1: codify ROW. That's what he's making the case for here.

826
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 1: And so I think, you know, Democrats would be smart

827
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 1: to really beat that drum across the country and make

828
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: it really clear that there's something you know, quite tangible

829
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: at stake here that they make a really hard and

830
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: fast commitment. You saw this with material politics, which I

831
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: still think are you know, the most important thing to

832
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: people's votes in those Georgia Senate elections, where there was

833
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 1: a really clear Democratic promise, Hey, you get these guys in,

834
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 1: you're gonna get checks. That worked out in Georgia. You

835
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 1: also had Trump giving them the assists. There could a

836
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: similarly like tangible, clear promise with regards to abortion be

837
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: as powerful as those material politics were in the Georgia

838
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,879
Speaker 1: Center elections. Remains to be seen, but I do think

839
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: it's a smart play from the Democrats. Yeah, very smart

840
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: to the extent that this will have the biggest impact.

841
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 1: I think it's in the state of Arizona because it

842
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 1: makes it much more real, as we saw in Kansas.

843
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 1: When it's real, people will actually come out to vote.

844
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 1: It's not as abstract and all the way up at

845
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 1: the national level, so we'll see what Like, you know,

846
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: we have to point out both side the story. Yeah,

847
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 1: and things are good on them for Republicans on the one.

848
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: On the other, if they screw it up, this will

849
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 1: be why. So let's all pay attention. Very cool. I mean, overall,

850
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: I tend to agree with you that the material politics

851
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: of just people feeling like the economy is really shitty

852
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 1: and being dissatisfied probably is what ends up being determinative.

853
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: But hey, we'll see, all right. Next piece here within

854
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: those polls, we had to do a separate little pull

855
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 1: out segment on this because this is quite significant. Democrats

856
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 1: really not excited about Joe Biden as the next Democratic

857
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: presidential nominee. Let's go and put these numbers up on

858
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 1: the screen. So this was from that Washington Post pull

859
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 1: the one that was worse for Democrats in the overall numbers.

860
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 1: It's also really bad for Biden. Fifty six percent of

861
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 1: Democrats want to see a different Democratic nominee next time.

862
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: Around thirty five percent say that they are with Biden.

863
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 1: Now you might have speculated because his property has come

864
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 1: up kind of the vibes have been better in his direction.

865
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 1: There was a whole dark brand and means and all

866
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 1: of his stuff. He has gotten, something's done, student loan debt, cancelation,

867
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 1: all of those things. You might have thought that the

868
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 1: Democratic base was basically feeling like, all right, well, let's

869
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: just stick with Joe. Not the case. Clearly not the case.

870
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 1: A pretty solid majority here saying they would like someone else.

871
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 1: And you could see this reflected in the comments of

872
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:42,839
Speaker 1: some Democratic members of Congress and Democratic leadership in their

873
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 1: reluctance to even say whether he should run again. Let's

874
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 1: take a listen to what Nancy Pelosi had to say

875
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 1: when she was asked that question. And I'm wondering if

876
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 1: you think he should run in twenty twenty four or

877
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:59,280
Speaker 1: party for someone else or might be better. President Biden

878
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 1: is the president of the United States. He did a

879
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: great service to our country. He defeated Donald Trump. Let's

880
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 1: not forget that. If you care about the air we

881
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 1: breathe of, what do we drink, the education of our children,

882
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:17,320
Speaker 1: jobs for their famili's pensions, for their seniors, any subject

883
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 1: you can name. I'm not going into politics about whether

884
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 1: the president should should run or not not going to

885
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 1: politics over whether the president should run or not. That's

886
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 1: pretty remarkable, it was. It's such an yes, next question, what, like,

887
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 1: what's happening in supportident Biden? Schumer also said, Umar also

888
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: said he's like, if he runs, I'll support him. Like

889
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,439
Speaker 1: where is this all coming from? Biden himself? As we said,

890
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: he gave that an interview. He didn't say he would run.

891
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 1: He blamed it on campaign finance. But clearly some note

892
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 1: has gone on somewhere where everybody's like if if And

893
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 1: I'm like, well, what do they know that we don't know?

894
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, this is a speculation. That's the speaker

895
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 1: of the House, number three in line to the presidency,

896
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: the number two Democrat in the entire party. No is

897
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 1: not like three two years? Yeah literally yeah, basically since birth.

898
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: The two of them have known each other. Schumer, you know,

899
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: same thing. The number three Democrat in the party, the

900
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: leader of the United States Senate. Like again, these are

901
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 1: guys who meet with him all the time and talk

902
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 1: to him on the phone, Like, what do they know

903
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 1: that is affecting their public? Like at the if the

904
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 1: White House is pissed off with the speculation and the speculation,

905
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 1: tell your surrogates and the leaders to all just go

906
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: out and be like he's running next question. Yeah, they

907
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: don't say that. I don't know what to make of

908
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 1: it at this point. I don't know either. Here's here's

909
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 1: a couple of theories. One is, we know from a

910
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 1: long history in Washington, Joe Biden is extremely indecisive. You

911
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 1: see this with uh, actually you saw it in the

912
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 1: run up to twenty sixteen when he was doing the

913
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: will he won't he runs stuff. You saw it with

914
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 1: the student loan debt stuff, where he's been haming and

915
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 1: hauling about it for months and months and months and

916
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,720
Speaker 1: months and months and finally, like you know, was pressured

917
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: and ultimately doing it. He is very very He's both

918
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: a micromanager and also indecisive, which is really bad in

919
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 1: terms of just like a bit you know, managing because

920
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: you don't empower people to make decisions, but you also

921
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: like don't make any decisions that could be what's going

922
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: on here. And in fact, let's gohead and put the

923
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 1: CNN piece up where they have a big report and

924
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: this was one of these that had like ten different

925
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 1: people on the byline, so they clearly tried to go

926
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: like really deep on this. When they say Democrats are

927
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 1: warming to the idea of Biden and running for reelection,

928
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 1: they're still not convinced he will. H Looms is a

929
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: major factor, so does the first Lady. Then again, his

930
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,959
Speaker 1: exit music at Friday's rally was daf Punks one more Time.

931
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 1: But here in this article they kind of lay out

932
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 1: that there was a lot of nervousness a couple months ago,

933
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 1: like pre dubs about Biden running again, and when the

934
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 1: DNC meeting was here, there were apparently meetings going on

935
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 1: across the street where like top party officials were huddling

936
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: and like, oh my god, how can we like who

937
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,800
Speaker 1: should we get to do, you know, run instead of Biden?

938
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 1: They actually say over drinks while looking around to make

939
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: sure no one overheard, they Winston Grimiston whispered what could

940
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: they do to stop Biden from running for re election again.

941
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 1: They go on to say that since then, the mood

942
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 1: has changed, things have turned and now they're feeling better

943
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 1: about Biden. But they talk about the fact that obviously

944
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 1: for Biden, you know, he always does this like over

945
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 1: the holidays, sit down with the family, see what they think,

946
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: solicit their input before he makes an official decision, So

947
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,360
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I still have to think

948
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 1: that this guy is really planning on running again. I

949
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: think they have to drag his corpse across the finish line, yeah,

950
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 1: no matter what, because he's the only one that could

951
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,800
Speaker 1: probably win. I think there's a lot of wish casting

952
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 1: among Democratic elites and the donor class. They really like people,

953
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 1: you know, and they might have some like you know,

954
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom fantasies or whatever, as well as grotesque. All

955
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 1: of it is disgusting, But ultimately I think they're going

956
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 1: to suck it up and they're going to back Joe. Now,

957
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: what I will say in terms of the Democratic base

958
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: is I'm doing my monologue today about Trump and DeSantis.

959
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: There's a lot of media fascination about, you know, oh,

960
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: good to Santas take Trump down. Joe Biden is by

961
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:13,879
Speaker 1: the numbers. This is not my opinion. This is by

962
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 1: the numbers. Joe Biden far more vulnerable to a primary

963
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 1: challenge than Donald Trump. Trump is basically, you know, he

964
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 1: still has a majority of Republicans who say, yeah, we

965
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:25,879
Speaker 1: want Trump to run again, Yeah we want this guy.

966
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 1: And you know, when you look at the polling, yeah,

967
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,280
Speaker 1: there was one poll out of Florida the head desantus

968
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 1: up in that one state. But if you look overall,

969
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: Trump still dominates the polling among Republicans and there's no one.

970
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 1: DeSantis is in a second, but it's not a particularly

971
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 1: close second. So I do think there's a lot of

972
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: media bias here going on in the fact that they

973
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: are not really open. They're talking about is Biden gonna

974
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 1: run or is he not. They're not talking about the

975
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 1: fact that he could run and face a really significant

976
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,360
Speaker 1: primary challenge, and it is much more likely that challenge

977
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 1: could succeed than frankly against Donald Trump. They have a

978
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: lot of wish casting about someone being able to take

979
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 1: out Donald Trump, but the person who was far more

980
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: vulnerable at this point is Joe Biden. Yeah, but you

981
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 1: would need somebody like a Ted Kennedy who is such

982
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 1: a you know, person in his own right brand access

983
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 1: to money to do it. And Kennedy had the Kennedy legacy,

984
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: you had the Kennedy name, he and the Kennedy money.

985
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 1: There's nobody really who has comes even close to that

986
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 1: to be able to go after Bile. Although it's a

987
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 1: different era where that's sort of like established political Now,

988
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: I mean, look at Trump. That sort of established political

989
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 1: network just doesn't mean what it use to mean, and

990
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 1: it's not as necessary. I mean, it's a media game. Campaigns,

991
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:43,439
Speaker 1: it's all just a media media theater. It's a media game.

992
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: The on the ground organizing and all of that. I

993
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: know a lot of canvassers are going to hate me.

994
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: It's not that that doesn't matter. But the heart and

995
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: soul of a campaign today is like earned media, and

996
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: that's what nantas, That's what Trump figured out, That's what

997
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: Ronda Santis figured out. That's what Bernie Sanders, you know,

998
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:01,800
Speaker 1: really was able to galvanize sort of independent in his camp.

999
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 1: So don't I don't discount that someone who doesn't have

1000
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 1: that like long standing, established family named political network could

1001
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:11,959
Speaker 1: come out of nowhere and challenge this guy, because there's

1002
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 1: clearly an appetite for an alternative. You know that all

1003
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 1: these Gavenus Entis and whatever like, they're not going to

1004
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 1: run against Joe, so there's going to help. There's going

1005
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: to be a gigantic opening for someone to fill, and

1006
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: I think it's I just find it really not worthy.

1007
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,720
Speaker 1: The media loves to obsess over whether some take out Trump,

1008
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 1: but really doesn't talk about whether Biden might face a

1009
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 1: primary that could be a significant challenge to him if

1010
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 1: he does decide to run again. I agree. All right,

1011
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 1: we've got an update for you on Brett farre and

1012
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: this situation down in Mississippi. Okay, guys, it's a little

1013
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 1: bit of a complicated story, and I do have to

1014
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: recommend my own monologue on the matter to get the

1015
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 1: whole backstory in like all the details here. But the

1016
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 1: tld R is basically, Mississippi has long been one of

1017
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 1: the stingiest states, if not the stingiest state in the

1018
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 1: country in terms of welfare funds. You get a block

1019
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 1: grant from the federal government, and states have a lot

1020
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 1: of latitude at this point post Bill Clinton and what

1021
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 1: they can do with this money. Poor people in the

1022
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 1: state weren't getting the money. So there was a big question, Okay,

1023
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 1: who is getting the money? Turns out that a bunch

1024
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 1: of like wealthy, politically connected scammers were getting millions and million,

1025
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:27,280
Speaker 1: tens of millions of dollars out of the state's welfare fund,

1026
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 1: some for direct personal use investments in this sort of

1027
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: scammy med tech company. All that. It turns out that

1028
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: Brett Favre is a lead investor in He was also

1029
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 1: paid to give quote unquote speeches that and we're talking

1030
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 1: about like one point five million dollars to give speeches

1031
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 1: that apparently he never gave. But the big focus with

1032
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 1: regard to Brett Pharr is the fact that he was

1033
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 1: pushing for something like five million dollars to build this

1034
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 1: stadium volleyball stadium for his daughter at her university as

1035
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,439
Speaker 1: the same university that he went to and played football at.

1036
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 1: And he was he's buddies with the former governor Phil Brian.

1037
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: He was texting back and forth with him, texting back

1038
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 1: and forth with this lady who was at the center

1039
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,560
Speaker 1: of some of the other fraud and her son trying

1040
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 1: to builk the welfare fund for this money. He denies wrongdoing.

1041
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:16,239
Speaker 1: He says he had no idea that this money was

1042
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:19,760
Speaker 1: coming from this fund. Well, there are new court filings

1043
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 1: that do not cast mister Farv in a very positive light.

1044
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: ESPN has the right up here. Let's go ahead and

1045
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:27,680
Speaker 1: put it up on the screen. They say Brett Favre

1046
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:32,439
Speaker 1: pressed for facility funding despite being told that the little

1047
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,840
Speaker 1: legality was in question. According to this new court filing,

1048
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 1: by the way, and I'll get into a little bit

1049
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 1: more of this. The court filing is from the former

1050
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 1: governor Phil Bryant, who was trying to protect his ass

1051
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,200
Speaker 1: so keep that in mind. He released some selected text

1052
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 1: messages to try to cast himself in the best possible light.

1053
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 1: This former governor and so what FARV texted him In

1054
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,760
Speaker 1: these text messages that were in the court filing. He says,

1055
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 1: we obviously need your big your health big time, and

1056
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 1: time is working against us far Broad and we feel

1057
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: that your name is the perfect choice for this facility,

1058
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: and we are not taking no for an answer. You

1059
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 1: are a Southern miss alumni and folks need to know

1060
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 1: you're also a supporter of the university. Briant responded, by text,

1061
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 1: according to the filing, quote, we are going to get there.

1062
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:22,320
Speaker 1: This was a great meeting, but we have to follow

1063
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 1: the law. I am too old for federal prison. And

1064
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: then he did like a smiley face in the sunglass emoji.

1065
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: But repeatedly, even after being told by the governor, like

1066
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:35,319
Speaker 1: I don't know if this is legal, FARV continues to

1067
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 1: press so that seems to indicate he knew this was

1068
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: shadier than he's letting on. Now that he's like, oh,

1069
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 1: I had no idea. I thought it was all about born.

1070
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 1: The whole thing that drives me insane about this is,

1071
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 1: like you said, it's not just far, but it's like

1072
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:50,240
Speaker 1: a bunch of wealthy people in the statement, this funds

1073
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:53,400
Speaker 1: for welfare. Yes, like, these are literally funds so that

1074
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: poor people you can eat. Yeah, big single moundy literally

1075
00:55:57,239 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 1: stole funds from poor people to line the pockets of

1076
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 1: rich people. I mean literally welfare for rich people. And

1077
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 1: Brett is worth one hundred and ten million dollars, multi

1078
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 1: millionaire man. He could build the stadium by himself if

1079
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 1: he wants. He's so bad. Yeah, for his daughter's volleyball program. Yes.

1080
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 1: The best part two is when he's like, use of

1081
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 1: these funds is tightly controlled, Improper use could result in

1082
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 1: violation of federal law. And he's still like, yeah, let's

1083
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:27,759
Speaker 1: do it, though, but again, what let's yeah. And let's

1084
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:30,280
Speaker 1: keep in mind, though, that this is a court filing

1085
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: from the former governor who's trying to cover his assets. Say, well,

1086
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,840
Speaker 1: I warned this was not this was shady, et cetera.

1087
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: There's a lot of other information to indicate that this

1088
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 1: guy was in on the whole thing, knew what was

1089
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 1: going on, was trying was coaching far from this other

1090
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 1: lady on how to write the proposal to get around

1091
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 1: the to like create legal loopholes and get around the issues.

1092
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 1: And there was rampant tens of millions of dollars of

1093
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 1: fraud in this welfare fund while he was governor. So

1094
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 1: let's put the next piece up on the screen. That's

1095
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:04,720
Speaker 1: from Mississippi today. They have been doing phenomenal work breaking

1096
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 1: all of this down. I really encourage you to support

1097
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:10,040
Speaker 1: them if you can. Former Governor Phil Bryant moves to

1098
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 1: keep text private while denying he helped channel welfare funds

1099
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 1: to Brett Farre's volleyball stadium. So he's objecting to turning

1100
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:23,160
Speaker 1: over any of his records and the full extent of

1101
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: his text messages in this filing. They just like took

1102
00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:28,520
Speaker 1: out the ones that they thought were the most favorable

1103
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 1: for them. They shared those. But they're saying, we don't

1104
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 1: need to give you anything else. If you didn't have

1105
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:35,120
Speaker 1: anything to hide, wouldn't you want to release all of

1106
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 1: those text messages and say, see, here is the whole

1107
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 1: account of what happened with regards to this freaking stadium.

1108
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:41,880
Speaker 1: I didn't have anything to do with it. I was

1109
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 1: telling them I was illegal. I was like saying, no,

1110
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 1: we can't go down this road. So the fact that

1111
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 1: he's going to great lengths to make sure that these

1112
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 1: text messages stay hidden is very suggestive of his role

1113
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 1: in this whole thing. And as I said before and

1114
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:57,320
Speaker 1: covered in my monologue, there were a lot of other

1115
00:57:57,320 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 1: text messages that looked very very bad for him. And

1116
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: by the way, the current governor, and they're both Republicans

1117
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 1: and both you know, know each other, and similar donors

1118
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 1: and whatever. Current governor seems to be helping him to

1119
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:11,600
Speaker 1: try to you know, not investigate his role and to

1120
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: keep these text messages hidden, et cetera, et cetera. So

1121
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 1: Governor Phil Bryant may may look like he's okay, and

1122
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: some of these text messages that his court that came

1123
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 1: out in his court filing, but remember there was other

1124
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 1: information that was released where he was directly involved, seemed

1125
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: to know where the funds were coming from, and was

1126
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 1: coaching them on how to how to help this like

1127
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 1: avoid legal scrutiny. Right. I think that's the key is, Look, Brett,

1128
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: you far you could clear your name today. Release every

1129
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: single text message that you got with the governor. I

1130
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:42,200
Speaker 1: wait for the subpoena. Same with all of them. You

1131
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 1: guys say you haven't done anything good publishing published it,

1132
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 1: release the transcript, as we once used to say. But

1133
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 1: I think it's a tremendous tale of corruption from what

1134
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 1: we've seen so far. And I hope that a lot

1135
00:58:55,880 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 1: of people go to jail as a result of this,

1136
00:58:57,800 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 1: or at the very least are fine to high hell,

1137
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 1: because it is repulsive to steal from a literal welfare

1138
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 1: fund to you know, for nepotism purposes, and when you're

1139
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,919
Speaker 1: famous and leveraging political power. All in a state which

1140
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 1: looks Mississippi. I mean they've they're suffering, right, It's welfare

1141
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 1: already is an issue, you know. I think it's one

1142
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 1: of the most obese like unhealthy states in the US.

1143
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 1: It's even the poorest or the second port right, it's

1144
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 1: always US places. Yeah, this is a place putting in Jackson, Yes, yeah, exactly.

1145
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 1: I mean that's that's why there's not an accident that

1146
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,680
Speaker 1: it happens there. So you know, already, to steal from

1147
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 1: poor people in general is terrible, but still from some

1148
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 1: of the poorest people in the country. Yeah, is like

1149
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 1: an extra level of unbelieving when you're already this filthy

1150
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 1: rich and then the last piece of this that is

1151
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 1: quite shocking. Just to show you the level of depravity

1152
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 1: and disgustingness that was going on here. This text from

1153
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 1: Brett Favre go ahead and put it up on the

1154
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 1: screen when asking Bryan in twenty eighteen for help finding

1155
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: funding to construct lockers at the facility. Quote, it would

1156
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 1: be helpful if someone would build them on their spare time.

1157
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 1: Poncho mentioned the prison industry, possibly as a builder. So

1158
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 1: Brett Favre there floating, I mean he's floating prison labor, right,

1159
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 1: Isn't that what that means? That's what he's saying. Yeah,

1160
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 1: floating using prison labor to make a volleyball stadium for

1161
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 1: his daughter. And you're talking about a dude who's worth

1162
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars. That was over one hundred million dollars.

1163
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 1: I have no words, no words, it's just so it

1164
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 1: is genuinely crazy, Like whenever you consider everything going on

1165
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:41,320
Speaker 1: with this and wep, okay, it's on, mister Farv and

1166
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 1: all of them can clear their name, they can tell

1167
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 1: us exactly what's going on. That's what we're calling. Least

1168
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 1: the emails, at least the text. Let's see it all

1169
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 1: absolutely all right, let's move on to Jensaki. This was

1170
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:53,920
Speaker 1: a really interesting clip that we saw Jensaki. I mean,

1171
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 1: usually whenever government officials go over to cable news, they

1172
01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 1: just continue to be mouthpieces of that administration. It happened

1173
01:01:00,840 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 1: for Sarah Sanders and for Kaylee mcanenny, it happened for

1174
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:09,439
Speaker 1: Simone Sanders. Saki, though, gave a very honest, perhaps too

1175
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 1: honest answer on Meet the Press, her new home over

1176
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 1: at NBC when she was asked about what the chances

1177
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:20,480
Speaker 1: for the Democrats would be come midterms. Let's take a listen.

1178
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how this is either really effective or

1179
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 1: you're trying to get the voter to take two issues

1180
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 1: in time together. You're trying too hard, I don't know,

1181
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 1: but an interesting response. Yeah, Look, I think that Democrats

1182
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 1: if the election is about who is the most extreme,

1183
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 1: as we saw you know, Kevin McCarthy touch on there

1184
01:01:39,240 --> 01:01:41,520
Speaker 1: with Marjorie Taylor Green I'll say her name sitting over

1185
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 1: his left side, then they're going to win. If it

1186
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 1: is a referendum on the president, they will lose, and

1187
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:49,080
Speaker 1: they know that. They also know that crime is a

1188
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 1: huge vulnerability for Democrats, I would say one of the

1189
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 1: biggest vulnerabilities. And if you look at Pennsylvania, for example,

1190
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 1: what's been interesting to me is it's always you follow

1191
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 1: the money and where are people spending money. And in Pennsylvania,

1192
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 1: the Republicans have been spending millions of dollars on the

1193
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 1: air on crime ads against Fetterman because that's where they

1194
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 1: see his vulnerability. So, yes, the economy is hanging over everything,

1195
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: but you do have to look at state by state factors,

1196
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,760
Speaker 1: and crime has a huge issue on the Pennsylvania I

1197
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 1: mean the fact that she said for it to be

1198
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 1: a referendum on the president, they will lose. That is

1199
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 1: a stark admission from the former spokesperson of the government

1200
01:02:27,280 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 1: of the United States and that president. And look, nothing

1201
01:02:30,240 --> 01:02:33,440
Speaker 1: she said there I even disagree with at all. So

1202
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:35,960
Speaker 1: it's very it was interesting to see her admit it,

1203
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 1: and also for that to kind of just be It's

1204
01:02:38,760 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 1: funny because I think that if you said that as

1205
01:02:40,720 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 1: any other Democrat on the channel who hadn't worked for Biden,

1206
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 1: they'd be like, oh no, no, but you can't argue

1207
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,680
Speaker 1: with her, like she clearly can see the national environment,

1208
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 1: and maybe that also tells us about what the thinking

1209
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:54,640
Speaker 1: is inside of the White House that they're maybe even

1210
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:57,400
Speaker 1: okay acknowledging that. I don't really know if I should

1211
01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 1: read too much into it. Yeah, the fact that it

1212
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: was set at all, like, wow, that's that's kind of

1213
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 1: it was quite candid. I can't imagine the White House

1214
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 1: is really psyched about her saying like, if it's a

1215
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 1: un referendum on the president, then we will lose. So

1216
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 1: I mean I attributed to the fact that I think

1217
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 1: she probably is like genuinely done being in government. You know,

1218
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 1: she could have stayed on longer. They were happy with

1219
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 1: her performance as White House Press Secretary. She looks great

1220
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 1: in retrospect now in comparison to the current White House

1221
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 1: Press Secretary. No personal offense to anyone involved there, but yeah,

1222
01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:31,720
Speaker 1: I think she feels like she's done being in government,

1223
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:35,280
Speaker 1: and maybe she's actually just like ready to be a

1224
01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 1: little bit honest after being a paid profit. I mean,

1225
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 1: your job, and this is not again specific to her,

1226
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 1: like your job is White House secretary, is just to

1227
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 1: be a propagandist. So maybe she's like sick of being

1228
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 1: a propagandist and actually wanted to say something honest here.

1229
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, but the assessment is certainly certainly right on,

1230
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 1: and they've known this for a while. It's obviously very clear.

1231
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 1: Republicans really want to make this a referendum on Biden.

1232
01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:02,880
Speaker 1: Democrats really want to make it a choice. They want

1233
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:04,760
Speaker 1: to put abortion on the ballot. They want to put

1234
01:04:05,080 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 1: Donald Trump on the ballot. And you know, to some

1235
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:10,400
Speaker 1: extent it has worked, like it certainly has made it

1236
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:13,080
Speaker 1: so that Democrats have a much better shot in the midterms.

1237
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 1: And the more that Trump is in the news and

1238
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 1: the more he's out there saying like whatever crazy QAnon

1239
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,160
Speaker 1: related things he's been saying lately, the better it is

1240
01:04:21,200 --> 01:04:23,920
Speaker 1: for Democrats. They do better with voters on the question

1241
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 1: of like which party is more extreme? That is another

1242
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 1: area where that ties together, like the democracy stuff and

1243
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:35,840
Speaker 1: abortion and like LGBTQ rights as well, So that is there.

1244
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,080
Speaker 1: That's definitely their best bet. Yeah, I think it's their

1245
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 1: best bet too. I mean, it's for her honesty is

1246
01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 1: not wrong. The Trump people, i mean the Biden peoples,

1247
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,920
Speaker 1: want to elevate Trump is the correct move. It's what

1248
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:50,640
Speaker 1: I would do in that scenario too. But we also

1249
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 1: know the DOJ, you know, from what they have said

1250
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 1: over the next sixty days, like they're not going to

1251
01:04:54,560 --> 01:04:57,960
Speaker 1: make any you know, extraordinary moves up ahead of the election.

1252
01:04:58,080 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 1: It's like, well, and it's all going to be about

1253
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 1: economy and crime? Is Trump really going to be at

1254
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:04,960
Speaker 1: the top of the news before election day in that month?

1255
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:06,919
Speaker 1: Kind of a return to what it was like seven

1256
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 1: eight months ago. If that's the case. We know exactly

1257
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:11,520
Speaker 1: where the poles were at seven eight months ago, So yeah,

1258
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 1: it's almost like a reversion back to the mean once again.

1259
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 1: I don't know. Lots of ground being tread. Bud Zaki

1260
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:18,880
Speaker 1: telling a little bit of the truth, yea, interesting in

1261
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 1: its own right. Something to yeah, something to take note of, Bristol,

1262
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: what are you taking a look at? As you almost

1263
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:29,640
Speaker 1: certainly know by this point, Florida Governor On Desanta's got

1264
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:31,920
Speaker 1: a whole lot of attention recently for his big political

1265
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 1: stunt flying Venezuelan migrants to Martha's vineyard. You probably also

1266
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 1: won't be surprised to learn that the reaction of this

1267
01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 1: legally dubious maneuver has been split along pretty hard partisan lines.

1268
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 1: Democrats uniformly decried it, Republicans almost uniformly cheered it. Public

1269
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 1: polling is similarly partisan divided, but there are some noteworthy

1270
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 1: exceptions here. We've now had a few instances of Trump

1271
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:58,520
Speaker 1: allies raising questions over DeSantis's move, A very interesting development

1272
01:05:58,600 --> 01:06:01,680
Speaker 1: given the expectation that, to Saytis and Trump might eventually

1273
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:04,840
Speaker 1: go head to head for the GUP nomination. So, first off,

1274
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 1: the presidential son in law Jared Kushner directly criticized DeSantis's

1275
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:12,800
Speaker 1: move in comments on Fox News. I personally watch what's happening,

1276
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:14,560
Speaker 1: and it's very hard to see at the southern border.

1277
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 1: I also, we have to remember these are human beings.

1278
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,920
Speaker 1: They're people, so seeing them being used as political pawns

1279
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 1: one way or the other is very troubling to me.

1280
01:06:24,080 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 1: Just as interesting, Sean Hannity, possibly Trump's closest ally in media,

1281
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 1: prompted Ted Cruz to question the legality of DeSantis's move. Yeah,

1282
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:36,640
Speaker 1: let's talk about the law. You're a lawyer, Senator, You've

1283
01:06:36,720 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 1: argued before the Supreme Court successfully, and from a legal standpoint,

1284
01:06:40,720 --> 01:06:42,720
Speaker 1: let's say I went down to the border, and I

1285
01:06:42,760 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 1: brought a big truck with me, and I picked up

1286
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:48,160
Speaker 1: a bunch of illegal immigrants and I started transporting them

1287
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:52,120
Speaker 1: across the country. Would I or would I not likely

1288
01:06:52,600 --> 01:06:56,840
Speaker 1: be arrested for human trafficking? And would it be illegal

1289
01:06:57,000 --> 01:07:01,200
Speaker 1: to do that for me? If I did that for you,

1290
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:04,320
Speaker 1: as citizen, you could easily be arrested, although to be honest,

1291
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's Justice Department wouldn't arrest you. But in an

1292
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:13,520
Speaker 1: ordinary justice department conservative, I disagree that arrest me. I

1293
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:17,920
Speaker 1: was a liberal, I get away with it. True, But

1294
01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:24,200
Speaker 1: back to the law. The law is clear. It is clear,

1295
01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:28,640
Speaker 1: and right now the biggest human trafficker on the face

1296
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:34,320
Speaker 1: of the planet is Joseph Robinette Biden Junior. The law

1297
01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 1: is clear, Hannity says, with Ted Cruz's agreement there Now, Cruz,

1298
01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:39,840
Speaker 1: of course starts cloak this in an anti Biden argument,

1299
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 1: But the real target of this segment was very clear

1300
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 1: was intended for an audience of two, Donald Trump and

1301
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 1: Ronda Santis. Fair to say, if it was Trump who

1302
01:07:48,040 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 1: had executed this whole migrant clean ride stunt, John Hendy

1303
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 1: would not be wringing his hands about the legality of

1304
01:07:53,600 --> 01:07:56,000
Speaker 1: the move, and Jared Kushner would be would not be

1305
01:07:56,040 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 1: making moving pleas to the migrants humanity. Now you put

1306
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,840
Speaker 1: this together with few other pieces, it sure looks like

1307
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 1: these are opening shots in the anticipated battle between Trump

1308
01:08:05,200 --> 01:08:08,640
Speaker 1: and DeSantis, as Trump moves towards an announcement and DeSantis

1309
01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:12,080
Speaker 1: increasingly irritates him by beating him at his own game.

1310
01:08:12,440 --> 01:08:16,280
Speaker 1: Now DeSantis is grabbing headlines, creating news cycles. Meanwhile, Trump

1311
01:08:16,320 --> 01:08:18,920
Speaker 1: is out dabbling in QAnon nonsense, buffeted by his own

1312
01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 1: mounting legal troubles, and forced into an unusual position of

1313
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:25,720
Speaker 1: having to respond to events as they occur rather than

1314
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:29,360
Speaker 1: creating his own center of gravity. Not to mention, Trumps

1315
01:08:29,360 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 1: still under a Twitter band that has made it more

1316
01:08:31,200 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 1: difficult for the former president to drive elite media figures

1317
01:08:34,000 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 1: to derangement. That was always his most appealing skill after all.

1318
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:40,360
Speaker 1: A new poll out of the Sunshine State had some

1319
01:08:40,400 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 1: more unwelcome news for the former president. For the first time,

1320
01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:46,400
Speaker 1: DeSantis is besting Trump among GOP primary voters in the

1321
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 1: state of Florida. Back in January, Trump held a seven

1322
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,759
Speaker 1: point lead over Desantus in that state. Now the numbers

1323
01:08:51,800 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 1: have basically flipped. DeSantis has an eight point edge over Trump,

1324
01:08:55,160 --> 01:08:58,439
Speaker 1: with forty eight percent preferring the governor and forty percent

1325
01:08:58,560 --> 01:09:02,240
Speaker 1: selecting Trump. Of course, DeSantis is governor of Florida, so

1326
01:09:02,280 --> 01:09:04,760
Speaker 1: he's kind of got a home field advantage here, but

1327
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 1: at this point, with Trump all but exiled from New York,

1328
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:10,400
Speaker 1: he is a Floridian too, and has dominated that state's politics.

1329
01:09:10,479 --> 01:09:14,200
Speaker 1: As he apparently obsessively reminds people, his endorsement is basically

1330
01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:16,240
Speaker 1: the whole reason that Ron DeSantis is governor of the

1331
01:09:16,280 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 1: state to start with. That's not all, though, DeSantis has

1332
01:09:19,200 --> 01:09:21,599
Speaker 1: also been out fundraising Trump. In the first six months

1333
01:09:21,640 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 1: of the year, DeSantis pulled in about fifty six million dollars,

1334
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 1: besting Trump by about twenty million dollars. In fact, there

1335
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:29,439
Speaker 1: are a lot of signs that DeSantis is becoming a

1336
01:09:29,479 --> 01:09:33,920
Speaker 1: real GOP donor favorite, raising vast sums, attracting longtime big

1337
01:09:33,960 --> 01:09:36,960
Speaker 1: Trump donors, and bringing some longtime GOP donors who were

1338
01:09:37,000 --> 01:09:40,519
Speaker 1: not Trump fans in off the sidelines. DeSantis has even

1339
01:09:40,520 --> 01:09:43,880
Speaker 1: previewed his attacks on Trump for that donor class, as

1340
01:09:43,880 --> 01:09:47,120
Speaker 1: The Washington Post writes, quote speaking to top Republican donors

1341
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:50,839
Speaker 1: earlier this month at in Orlando Four Seasons, DeSantis questioned

1342
01:09:50,840 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 1: the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccine for which Trump has

1343
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 1: taken credit, and said that while Trump and his administration

1344
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:59,200
Speaker 1: had put up some quote good fights on cultural issues,

1345
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:02,599
Speaker 1: liberals had been winning for the last five or ten years.

1346
01:10:02,920 --> 01:10:05,920
Speaker 1: He raised concerns about the deficit growing the last three years,

1347
01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:09,040
Speaker 1: some of which Trump was in office. Looking at the

1348
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:11,479
Speaker 1: whole picture, Ron Desanta seems to me to be playing

1349
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:13,880
Speaker 1: the role in the Republican Party that Mayor Pete plays

1350
01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:16,640
Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party. In both instances, elites in the

1351
01:10:16,640 --> 01:10:18,800
Speaker 1: party have no issue with the actual ideology of the

1352
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:20,960
Speaker 1: guy at the top Biden the case of Dems, of course,

1353
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:23,120
Speaker 1: and Trump in the case of the GOP. They just

1354
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:26,160
Speaker 1: want it served up in a more intellectual package. They

1355
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:30,000
Speaker 1: want neoliberalism, just without the stiff gate stumbling delivery and

1356
01:10:30,040 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 1: where am I right now? Eyes for Republicans. They want

1357
01:10:33,240 --> 01:10:35,599
Speaker 1: tax cuts for the rich in corporate takeover of government,

1358
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:38,440
Speaker 1: but without the mean tweets and the deep state screens.

1359
01:10:38,680 --> 01:10:41,280
Speaker 1: It's not that there's no market for DeSantis or for Pete,

1360
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:43,600
Speaker 1: just not nearly as much as the donor class and

1361
01:10:43,680 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 1: media elites would like there to be. And on the

1362
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:48,000
Speaker 1: Republican side, you have, of course got the added challenge

1363
01:10:48,040 --> 01:10:51,240
Speaker 1: that the base they really like Donald Trump, and he

1364
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:55,439
Speaker 1: basically defines the Republican Party as being whatever Trump says

1365
01:10:55,479 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 1: that it is. DeSantis has maintained his high popularity with

1366
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:01,840
Speaker 1: the MAGA faithful because as he hasn't directly crossed or

1367
01:11:01,880 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 1: criticized Trump yet, and they are still inclined to believe

1368
01:11:05,400 --> 01:11:08,200
Speaker 1: the Trump line that any rivalry between them is purely

1369
01:11:08,240 --> 01:11:12,639
Speaker 1: a media creation. The illusion of DeSantis' presidential ambitions will

1370
01:11:12,680 --> 01:11:15,080
Speaker 1: last for exactly as long as they continue maintaining that

1371
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:18,759
Speaker 1: illusion of being allies. Judging from recent events, the days

1372
01:11:18,800 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 1: of that may well be numbered. So looks like things

1373
01:11:22,360 --> 01:11:25,720
Speaker 1: are coming to a head. Trump's clearly very irritated with

1374
01:11:25,760 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 1: Desantas and if you want to hear my reaction to

1375
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:36,439
Speaker 1: Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com.

1376
01:11:36,520 --> 01:11:38,720
Speaker 1: All right, sago, are you looking at well? Something I'm

1377
01:11:38,760 --> 01:11:41,600
Speaker 1: obsessed with is the law of unintended consequences and a

1378
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:44,080
Speaker 1: force is so big that they direct the course of history,

1379
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:46,760
Speaker 1: both on the individual but on the macro level. It's

1380
01:11:46,800 --> 01:11:48,840
Speaker 1: actually humbling often to realize when you pull up at

1381
01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:50,559
Speaker 1: the pump, or if you run a small business to know,

1382
01:11:50,840 --> 01:11:53,360
Speaker 1: from an individual agency point of view, you really don't

1383
01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:56,280
Speaker 1: have anything that you can do. Sometimes you simply have

1384
01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:58,439
Speaker 1: to pay the high price or accept lower revenue and

1385
01:11:58,479 --> 01:12:00,719
Speaker 1: just try and make things work. That is the reality

1386
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 1: of life for most people. It becomes historical, though, when

1387
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,519
Speaker 1: those forces manifest at a bigger level, When enough people

1388
01:12:07,520 --> 01:12:10,720
Speaker 1: get pissed off, they sometimes do some crazy stuff, and

1389
01:12:10,760 --> 01:12:13,000
Speaker 1: across the pond in Europe we are seeing a preview,

1390
01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:16,160
Speaker 1: perhaps just like last time, of a harbinger of insanity

1391
01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:18,920
Speaker 1: on our shores. Obviously, I've spent hours on the show

1392
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:21,680
Speaker 1: diving into the European energy crisis. But what I want

1393
01:12:21,720 --> 01:12:24,080
Speaker 1: to underscore for folks in the back here in the

1394
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,080
Speaker 1: East coast of the US, it's already getting cold, which

1395
01:12:27,120 --> 01:12:30,040
Speaker 1: means it's been getting colder in Europe for weeks now.

1396
01:12:30,360 --> 01:12:33,479
Speaker 1: Germany's natural gas demand over the weekend rose above both

1397
01:12:33,520 --> 01:12:36,360
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one and twenty twenty levels as a result

1398
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:39,719
Speaker 1: of colder than expected weather. That comes as Germany faces

1399
01:12:39,760 --> 01:12:42,959
Speaker 1: the historical natural gas shortage with its cutoff from Russia

1400
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:46,839
Speaker 1: and energy prices skyrocketing to unheard of levels on the continent.

1401
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:50,200
Speaker 1: All over Germany, there are tales of businesses or households

1402
01:12:50,320 --> 01:12:54,120
Speaker 1: facing historic energy bills. Our recent feature recent one featured

1403
01:12:54,160 --> 01:12:56,839
Speaker 1: on German public radio, told the story of a family

1404
01:12:56,920 --> 01:13:00,320
Speaker 1: in Brandenburg whose monthly bill was increased to fifth teen

1405
01:13:00,479 --> 01:13:03,360
Speaker 1: hundred euros a month from a previous one hundred and

1406
01:13:03,439 --> 01:13:06,719
Speaker 1: forty three euros. The reality is sinking in for across

1407
01:13:06,760 --> 01:13:10,559
Speaker 1: the continent and ramifications are becoming clear. In London, financial

1408
01:13:10,560 --> 01:13:13,599
Speaker 1: analyst Bill Blaine is writing in a now viral column quote,

1409
01:13:14,120 --> 01:13:17,080
Speaker 1: this winter, people are going to die of cold as

1410
01:13:17,120 --> 01:13:19,800
Speaker 1: the price of energy becomes higher. The costs will fall

1411
01:13:19,840 --> 01:13:23,600
Speaker 1: disproportionately upon some poorest in society. Income inequalities will be

1412
01:13:23,680 --> 01:13:27,400
Speaker 1: dramatically exposed as the vulnerable in society face a stark

1413
01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:31,519
Speaker 1: choice heat or eat. But then Blaine asks a deeper question,

1414
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:33,320
Speaker 1: and that one brings us to the point of this

1415
01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 1: monologue quote that has all kinds of social consequences. Can

1416
01:13:37,479 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 1: you imagine how those in France will react ahead of

1417
01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:43,120
Speaker 1: the French elections in April? What about the prospects for

1418
01:13:43,240 --> 01:13:46,160
Speaker 1: riots as fuel prices hit the poorest communities and ethnic

1419
01:13:46,200 --> 01:13:49,679
Speaker 1: groups in the UK? Blaine continues that beyond the tragedy

1420
01:13:49,720 --> 01:13:52,120
Speaker 1: of the acute crisis in the winter is the broader

1421
01:13:52,160 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 1: social implication across the entire European continent. And I'm beginning

1422
01:13:56,000 --> 01:13:58,559
Speaker 1: to wonder if the energy crisis, precipitated by the Russian

1423
01:13:58,560 --> 01:14:01,519
Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine and locked in policy by the West

1424
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:04,920
Speaker 1: of its sanctions regime, if Europe is not unintentionally spurring

1425
01:14:05,160 --> 01:14:08,320
Speaker 1: a mass populist uprising for the years to come. First,

1426
01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:11,160
Speaker 1: let's start in Sweden, which actually is about to enter NATO.

1427
01:14:11,520 --> 01:14:15,200
Speaker 1: You're seeing a pushback against the euro consensus. The right

1428
01:14:15,200 --> 01:14:18,120
Speaker 1: wing party there bagged a historic victory in the latest

1429
01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:21,200
Speaker 1: election the last couple of weeks, with a similar uprising

1430
01:14:21,280 --> 01:14:27,480
Speaker 1: against the euroliberal consensus on immigration, religion, crime, and environmentalism.

1431
01:14:27,760 --> 01:14:31,080
Speaker 1: The Sweden Far right party promised to loosen environmental regulations

1432
01:14:31,200 --> 01:14:33,600
Speaker 1: to lower the cost of energy prices and made it

1433
01:14:33,640 --> 01:14:37,480
Speaker 1: a centerpiece of their campaign, right alongside its social crusade.

1434
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:40,479
Speaker 1: The signs were also clear in Italy last night. Social

1435
01:14:40,479 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 1: discontent discontent spurred Georgia Meloney to the forefront of politics

1436
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:48,360
Speaker 1: after her party just garnered four percent of the vote

1437
01:14:48,520 --> 01:14:51,720
Speaker 1: only four years ago. How does that happen? Well, she

1438
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:56,720
Speaker 1: is capitalizing on growing discontent around mass immigration, the energy crisis,

1439
01:14:56,800 --> 01:15:01,080
Speaker 1: social liberalism and EU interference from Brush. I am not

1440
01:15:01,080 --> 01:15:03,479
Speaker 1: going to sit here and claim that Herriz has all

1441
01:15:03,520 --> 01:15:06,320
Speaker 1: to do with energy prices per se. Italy, after all,

1442
01:15:06,360 --> 01:15:08,800
Speaker 1: has always been a mess, especially since its reception as

1443
01:15:08,840 --> 01:15:12,559
Speaker 1: a state, but Italy is a leading indicator on these matters,

1444
01:15:12,720 --> 01:15:16,200
Speaker 1: has been for years. The raucous uprising of Rome could

1445
01:15:16,280 --> 01:15:19,360
Speaker 1: come to Berlin, London and Paris in the not too

1446
01:15:19,439 --> 01:15:22,519
Speaker 1: distant future. In the Czech Republic, we're seeing interesting signs too.

1447
01:15:22,800 --> 01:15:25,160
Speaker 1: The far right Freedom and Direct Democracy Party for the

1448
01:15:25,160 --> 01:15:27,640
Speaker 1: first time is coming in second and latest round of

1449
01:15:27,680 --> 01:15:30,679
Speaker 1: political polls that puts them ahead of the ruling coalition

1450
01:15:30,760 --> 01:15:34,200
Speaker 1: in charge. The party's rise is almost single handedly because

1451
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:37,799
Speaker 1: of social discontent around energy prices and around the government's

1452
01:15:37,800 --> 01:15:42,640
Speaker 1: policy in Ukraine. Slovakia too seeing discontent recent protests in

1453
01:15:42,680 --> 01:15:46,120
Speaker 1: the country's capital around energy prices and a weird position.

1454
01:15:46,439 --> 01:15:49,240
Speaker 1: It's both a NATO and EU state, but half of

1455
01:15:49,280 --> 01:15:53,280
Speaker 1: its population does not believe that Russia actually attacked Ukraine

1456
01:15:53,520 --> 01:15:57,439
Speaker 1: and they mainline Kremlin propaganda. In fact, polls in the

1457
01:15:57,439 --> 01:16:01,520
Speaker 1: country indicate that the former USSR country, that more Slovaks

1458
01:16:01,600 --> 01:16:05,240
Speaker 1: actually trust Russians than Americans, and the main opposition is

1459
01:16:05,280 --> 01:16:09,200
Speaker 1: taking notice. They are blasting the government's EU support lobbying

1460
01:16:09,200 --> 01:16:12,519
Speaker 1: against Russian sanctions. The signs are everywhere. Three days ago,

1461
01:16:12,600 --> 01:16:15,320
Speaker 1: thousands of people in Brussels took the streets to protest

1462
01:16:15,400 --> 01:16:18,280
Speaker 1: high energy prices. In France, right now, the support amongst

1463
01:16:18,280 --> 01:16:22,280
Speaker 1: the population for quote unconditional sanctions against Russia now stands

1464
01:16:22,360 --> 01:16:25,080
Speaker 1: nationally and only forty percent. It dropped six percent in

1465
01:16:25,160 --> 01:16:28,000
Speaker 1: a single month. In Germany, less than half of those

1466
01:16:28,040 --> 01:16:30,679
Speaker 1: in the former Soviet eastern part of the country even

1467
01:16:30,760 --> 01:16:34,439
Speaker 1: support sanctions in the first place. All signs point to

1468
01:16:34,520 --> 01:16:38,519
Speaker 1: an opposition increase on energy prices. We are gliding into

1469
01:16:38,520 --> 01:16:41,479
Speaker 1: the path of the very unknown, and given recent trends,

1470
01:16:41,560 --> 01:16:45,320
Speaker 1: we should bet some crazy stuff might happen. Sanctions policy

1471
01:16:45,360 --> 01:16:47,840
Speaker 1: at this point is not going to change. Putin's recent

1472
01:16:47,880 --> 01:16:51,160
Speaker 1: mobilization guarantees that, and that means we now get to

1473
01:16:51,200 --> 01:16:55,400
Speaker 1: watch a massive transformation on the continent. One thing is certain,

1474
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:57,840
Speaker 1: it won't be the same again. And the effects of

1475
01:16:57,840 --> 01:17:01,160
Speaker 1: the sanctions policy, which almost no one thinks, which almost

1476
01:17:01,200 --> 01:17:03,800
Speaker 1: no one actual thought went into, it's going to have

1477
01:17:03,880 --> 01:17:07,000
Speaker 1: major ramifications for years to come. I think that's all

1478
01:17:07,040 --> 01:17:08,600
Speaker 1: I can really take away. I don't know what's going

1479
01:17:08,640 --> 01:17:11,680
Speaker 1: to happen, but politics on the content, and if you

1480
01:17:11,720 --> 01:17:14,519
Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue, become a

1481
01:17:14,560 --> 01:17:21,920
Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. Joining us now

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Speaker 1: is executive vice president for the Quincy Institute, doctor Treat

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Speaker 1: de Parsi. Great friend of the show. It's great to

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Speaker 1: see you, sir, Thanks for joining us, so we wanted

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Speaker 1: to have you on. Obviously, there's protests going on right

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Speaker 1: now in Iran. Let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: So you've wrote a piece here specifically about the Iranian regime,

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Speaker 1: the handling of these protests, what it tells us about

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Speaker 1: both the situation and their own problems and allergy to reform,

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Speaker 1: and why it's bred violence. Just, first of all, for

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Speaker 1: the audience, can you just lay out why exactly these

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Speaker 1: protests are happening and then what they reveal a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the current social situation in Iran. Sure, so

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Speaker 1: these protests were triggered the so called morality police arresting

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Speaker 1: a young twenty two year old woman for not wearing

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Speaker 1: her headscarf correctly, and then she died in their custody,

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Speaker 1: and clearly something must have happened. Our father says that

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Speaker 1: she was beaten up in custody and eventually died from

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Speaker 1: that beating. And there's a massive outrage throughout all of society,

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Speaker 1: not just amongst those who are against the headscof, but

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Speaker 1: actually also a lot of conservatives who favored the headscarf,

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Speaker 1: perhaps even favor the law making it mandatory, but still

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Speaker 1: find problem with this. And this has then triggered some

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Speaker 1: of the biggest protests we have seen for several years

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Speaker 1: now in Ivan, and they're very different in many different aspects.

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Speaker 1: I would say one thing that is quite striking here

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Speaker 1: is that previous protests tended to focus on a specific policy,

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Speaker 1: like the twenty nineteen or twenty seventeen one, were economically driven,

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Speaker 1: and only after the regime started clamping down on the

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Speaker 1: violence did they become a little bit more forward leading

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Speaker 1: in their demand and starting questioning the Islamic Republic as

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Speaker 1: a whole. These protests almost from the beginning, started not

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Speaker 1: focusing just on a policy, but actually on the very

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Speaker 1: structure of the Islamic republican calling for regime change. The

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Speaker 1: people protesting are a bit different because we see there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of young people, people who are no more

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Speaker 1: than ten years old. In two thousand and nine, when

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Speaker 1: you had some of the biggest protests in Yvonne's history,

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Speaker 1: with more than two million people on the streets in Tehran.

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Speaker 1: These are now twenty year olds, eighteen to twenty year olds,

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Speaker 1: and it seems very clear after twenty years of attempts

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Speaker 1: at reform which have been blocked in stilly by various factors,

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Speaker 1: this new generation seems to have lost any faith that

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Speaker 1: the regime is capable of being able to meet their

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Speaker 1: demands and as a result are going directly for regime change,

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Speaker 1: and that's quite different from what we've seen before. How

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Speaker 1: widespread are the pro tests and how much of an

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Speaker 1: actual threat to the regime do you think that they pose.

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Speaker 1: They have now taken place in more than ninety cities,

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Speaker 1: so it is quite widespread. It may not be in

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Speaker 1: the same numbers as what we saw in two thousand

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Speaker 1: and nine, but it's very widespread, and it's going through

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Speaker 1: many of the cities that traditionally have not had a

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Speaker 1: lot of protests. The regime doesn't seem to act as

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Speaker 1: if they viewed it as a major threat, and they

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Speaker 1: may be completely miscalculating. They may calculate that they can

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Speaker 1: clamp down and through repression quality these protests, and they

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Speaker 1: may be right in that, but even if they do so,

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Speaker 1: they're only sowing the seeds for future protests because as

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Speaker 1: long as there is no willingness by the regime to

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Speaker 1: give some space to people in this case, they're asking

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Speaker 1: for some basic dignity. As long as they're not willing

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Speaker 1: to do so, you're going to see more protests, and

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01:20:49,600 --> 01:20:53,800
Speaker 1: they're going to become more radicalized in their demands and

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Speaker 1: compared to what they have been in the past. So

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Speaker 1: it's not a winning formula for the regime itself. It

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Speaker 1: be just things that Brazils wanting to violence and repression

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Speaker 1: will will save the day for them, you know. At

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Speaker 1: the same time, doctor Parson, this is what we always say.

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Speaker 1: It's very difficult. You know, we're here, we're not there

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Speaker 1: on the ground. We can see that the protests are happening.

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Speaker 1: Obviously there's cheerleading on a lot of size like this

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Speaker 1: is going to be finally it. But I've seen a

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Speaker 1: lot of protests in Iran. How what type of settlement

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Speaker 1: do these things usually come to? You know, as much

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Speaker 1: as I would hope, you know, for a different outcome.

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Speaker 1: What is the likely course of action as we see

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Speaker 1: in the next couple of days. Well, these protests face

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Speaker 1: a lot of different challenges that makes it difficult to

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Speaker 1: see them ultimately being successful, at least in this situation.

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Speaker 1: And one of the things is that this is not

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Speaker 1: having a clear leadership. There's some voices on the outside

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Speaker 1: that are trying to clean leadership. It's clearly that they're

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Speaker 1: not in charge of what's taking place. This is driven

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Speaker 1: from people on the inside, but there's no clear organization

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Speaker 1: behind it. There's no clear leadership that can channel the

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Speaker 1: demands and you know, channel the pressure onto the regime

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Speaker 1: in a very specific way. Now, that may change. We

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Speaker 1: have seen in other examples in which something can start

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Speaker 1: off being leader less but then leaders emerge out of

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Speaker 1: the movement. But if they don't, then I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be very difficult to see how this can

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Speaker 1: be successful again in this iteration. But this is a

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Speaker 1: longer term process. It's not just one round of protest

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Speaker 1: that matters. Here. One thing I would be looking for

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Speaker 1: is to see whether some of these labor strikes that

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Speaker 1: already have taken place, if they actually will start intensifying

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Speaker 1: in sympathy and solidarity with these protests. That would mean

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Speaker 1: that the protests are now then starting to manifest themselves

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Speaker 1: outside of justice street protests, and that could be a

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Speaker 1: big change in the diamics. So the Trump administration policy

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Speaker 1: was effectively trying to put enough pressure and squeeze around

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Speaker 1: as a whole enough to force a potential regime change.

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Speaker 1: I mean that was kind of seemed like the goal

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Speaker 1: they were pushing towards. They back down of the around

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Speaker 1: nuclear deal, they level all of these intense sanctions make

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Speaker 1: things very difficult for the country and the people in

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Speaker 1: that country economically. Is this, in a sense a sort

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Speaker 1: of vindication of that policy. No, it's a lot of

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Speaker 1: vindication in my view. I mean, first of all, yes,

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Speaker 1: they have very specifically targeted the idea that reform is

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Speaker 1: possible and has frustrated the population who are seeing no

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Speaker 1: other options but to do going out and protesting and

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Speaker 1: calling for regime change. But I think it's important to

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Speaker 1: keep in mind with the Trump administrations objecting was not

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Speaker 1: regime change, it was regime collapse. They wanted to just

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Speaker 1: see a complete collapse and potentially followed by a civil war.

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Speaker 1: They were not championing any particular change in regime. I

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Speaker 1: think the Trump administration didn't want to own the chaos

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Speaker 1: that would come from a regime collapse, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think that is what we're seeing. We're seeing that their

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Speaker 1: policies have helped create some of the conditions that has

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Speaker 1: made people all the more frustrat because of Trump pulling

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Speaker 1: out of the Yvon Deald, the economic situation getting worse,

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Speaker 1: strengthening the hardliners that are not engaging even further repression.

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Speaker 1: But the idea that it would be successful, or from

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Speaker 1: a standpoint I actually wanted to see movement in the

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Speaker 1: right direction would mean that this actually would be to democratization.

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Speaker 1: We're not seeing clear signs of that. We're seeing signs

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Speaker 1: that people are out there protesting and calling for regime

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Speaker 1: change because they're so terribly frustrated with the situation. But

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Speaker 1: the lesson that was learned may have been unlearned now

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Speaker 1: from nineteen seventy nine. It's one thing to protest against

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Speaker 1: the tyrannical regime. It's a completely different thing to turn

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Speaker 1: those protests into a force for democratization. In nineteen seventy nine,

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Speaker 1: that utterly failed. A dictator was replaced with another dictator

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Speaker 1: in many ways worse. Yeah, well, I think it's very

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Speaker 1: important in order to break these things down in a

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Speaker 1: very calm manner, and that's what you've always been excellent

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Speaker 1: at for our show. So we really appreciate you joining

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01:24:58,960 --> 01:25:01,320
Speaker 1: us in for describing this and obviously you know it's

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Speaker 1: a bad situation, and uh yeah, I just hope for

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Speaker 1: the best for the people there who are obviously protesting

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Speaker 1: something very very unjust. So thank you very much, sir.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate that. Thank you, Thank you all so much

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01:25:12,600 --> 01:25:14,919
Speaker 1: for watching. We really appreciate it. We've got the discount

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Speaker 1: going on right now, ten percent off on annual link

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Speaker 1: in the description and live show. Let's go in and

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01:25:19,880 --> 01:25:22,240
Speaker 1: buy those tickets. People, Chicago, we got to sell this

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01:25:22,280 --> 01:25:25,080
Speaker 1: thing out. Just please please help us out in the Midwest.

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Speaker 1: If you're in the area, come and join us. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be an awesome time. Other than that, I

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Speaker 1: think we have no more administrative announcements. We'll see everybody tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Love you guys, see you tomorrow.